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I Won’t Get Out, It’s Very Hard For Us To Find Another Purchaser

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Betsy Ronel, a licensed real estate salesperson with Compass in Westchester County, New York, said she believes the market will be in recovery mode for the foreseeable future. ‘It’s a national issue, so things are stalled everywhere in some way,’ she said. Jason Gelios, a realtor in Southeast Michigan, said he’s starting to notice a bit of a difference in the market. ‘There is a slight change happening in the current housing market where buyer demand has actually decreased,’ he said.”

“July housing inventory levels finally offered some hopeful signs of a cooling market. The number of homes for sale has been steadily increasing since it’s January low, when only 260 were listed in Ada County and 160 in Canyon County. There were 1,055 available Ada homes and 676 Canyon homes in July — the healthiest inventory numbers since March 2020. Ada inventory is up 50.3% from June and 116.3% from July 2020. In Canyon, home prices actually fell by 2.1% for a median of $414,750 compared with June’s $424,000, marking the county’s first decrease in more than a year.”

“‘Existing inventory was higher than the previous month and year for the second month in a row, something not seen since March of 2020 just before the pandemic hit the market,’ Pete Clark, director of communications for Boise Regional Realtors.”

“Economist Matthew Gardner says housing prices can only go so high. ‘There must always be a relationship between home prices and incomes. That is just a fact of life,’ he said. ‘We are getting certainly very close to that affordability ceiling, and what’s going to happen — and we are already starting to see it — is a bit of softening in list prices. In King County, for example, year over year, the average list price is actually down by 2%.'”

“‘[Condo] sale prices in Dorchester and South Boston are actually down 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively,’ versus a year ago, said agent Kiernan Middleman. ‘Even in the South End, one of the most desirable neighborhoods in the city, year-over-year closed sale prices are down 4.8 percent.'”

“In the Rochester region, we’re seeing an extremely busy 2021 season for new home construction. It’s also a hot market for buying existing homes. Jeremias Manerio with Re/Max says buyers have been taking a bit of a temporary break, and the market could turn in their favor and balance out. ‘It will be more affordable for buyers depending on what happens with interest rates in the future,’ he says. He adds that you might see a brief decline in the high-tempo bidding we’ve seen on houses. ‘You might get a property for full asking, or maybe even just a bit under,’ says Manerio.”

“The final deal terms have been approved to sell one of the Bay Area properties a bankrupt developer managed to finish before his real estate empire collapsed — and more sales are in view. The pending property purchases arise from a federal court proceeding linked to a securities fraud case that’s been brought against bankrupt developer Sanjeev Acharya and his company, Silicon Sage Builders.”

“A big apartment complex in downtown San Jose developed by Acharya is poised to be bought — although at a price cut from the purchase value that was initially proposed, according to federal court documents. Plus, a court-appointed receiver has hired a real estate broker to sell three more properties, two in Santa Clara and one in Sunnyvale. ‘Even with the reduction, the proposed sale is still the best offer that the receiver obtained,’ the receiver asserted in the court filing regarding the Balbach apartment complex.”

“A Massachusetts investor is charging a New Hampshire firm for ‘luring’ it into a multi-million Ponzi scheme in order to get a piece of the action. The properties were near Birmingham, Al., and Overland Park, KS. But the suit charges that the values of the property were artificially inflated – the Birmingham project wasn’t even started yet – and that the rents paid were not from a successful commercial operation but from other investors.  After some of that initial rent, both filed for bankruptcy.”

“‘The Noah event centers were, collectively, an unprofitable enterprise sustained only through infusions of new investor funds,’ alleged the SEC. ‘None of these accusations are accurate,’ John D. Hamrick told NH Business Review. ‘They purchased the real estate, and the owner and the tenant went bankrupt, and now they are trying to blame everybody else.’ He added, ‘They still own the real estate. They just aren’t getting any rent.'”

“Metro Vancouver home sales and prices are beginning to cool from their pandemic-fuelled highs. ‘Detached properties fail in the latest attempt to surpass the two-million (dollar) price barrier,’ was how Dane Eitel, a Vancouver real estate analyst and agent, described the scenario as the average sale price for all homes in the region reached a peak at $1.982 million in June and then slid $67,000 to $1.915 million in July.”

“Asking prices for apartments across London fell 2% since February 2020. Central London ‘is a buyer’s market,’ Simon Aldous, valuations director at Savills Plc, said in the RICS survey.”

“The worries of China’s most indebted real estate developers are not over yet. China Evergrande’s inventory has lost nearly 80% since July last year. The bonds are traded at a distressed level: some of them are worth less than half their face value.”

“A group of apartment buyers is pleading with the NSW government to help break their contracts after purchasing off-the-plan units in a Parramatta development where defects were recently discovered. Cynthia Huang paid tens of thousands of dollars in 2016 for a deposit on her dream apartment in the twin-towers development and said she was devastated when she first heard there were problems with the buildings.”

“‘I saved for a long time for this and for my future home,’ she said. ‘Those defects are about structural problems that can cause safety hazards and I can’t imagine how this could happen to me.’ Ben Xue also bought off the plan and said he was worried to be locked into a contract ‘forever.’ ‘My solicitor said if they register the strata plan, I won’t get out,’ he said. ‘It’s very hard for us to find another purchaser.'”

“Greens MP David Shoebridge met with around 10 Imperial Towers buyers and said the purchase had been significant. ‘For many of them, this was their first home, this was their first home in Australia as well, and they felt absolutely trapped,’ he said.”

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This Post Has 81 Comments

  1. ‘what’s going to happen — and we are already starting to see it’

    That’s why you make the big buck Matt.

    2. “There must always be a relationship between home prices and incomes. That is just a fact of life,” he said.

      Gee Matt, ever wonder how many King and Pierce county shacks have three generations jam-packed in them? They’re not living, just surviving.

      1. Used to be dirt cheap back in the day. My father bought my aunt and uncle their first house in Bellevue – a foreclosure – since they had no credit and no down payment and very little money. This is circa 1970 or so. I think he paid $50k or something. They sold it for a windfall of $700,000 or thereabouts, back in the first bubble. They have my dad, RIP, to thank for their good fortune.

        1. “This is circa 1970 or so.”

          There was a huge down-turn in the Seattle-Tacoma economy back then as Boeing 747 lay-offs were widespread that also hit many local supplies too.

  2. ‘January low, when only 260 were listed in Ada County and 160 in Canyon County. There were 1,055 available Ada homes and 676 Canyon homes in July — the healthiest inventory numbers since March 2020. Ada inventory is up 50.3% from June and 116.3% from July 2020’

    Harry Potter: “And more shacks there, and there!”

    1. Can’t be! There’s a massive shortage of used homes don’t you know.

      I guess the suckers have run out.

    2. If Manhattan can crater, anyplace can crater. Spudville, Idaho is going into the sh!tter. Ditto Bendover, OR, etc. The price crashes in those far flung hellholes are going to be a sight to behold. Good lord will it be ugly.

  3. ‘Even in the South End, one of the most desirable neighborhoods in the city, year-over-year closed sale prices are down 4.8 percent’

    Note the same report just said Boston airboxes were red hotcakes.

  4. Wha???

    In the hottest real estate market in 30 years?

    “Westchester County, New York, said she believes the market will be in recovery mode for the foreseeable future. ‘It’s a national issue, so things are stalled everywhere in some way,’”

  5. ‘They purchased the real estate, and the owner and the tenant went bankrupt, and now they are trying to blame everybody else…They still own the real estate. They just aren’t getting any rent’

    You tell em John. Can’t they see the sweet equity? How do those 7% returns look now?

  6. Oh my…

    Remember when business decisions were made with data, ROI and due diligence?

    “A Massachusetts investor is charging a New Hampshire firm for ‘luring’ it into a multi-million Ponzi scheme in order to get a piece of the action.”

  7. Maybe the lure of guaranteed sweet equity?

    “‘I saved for a long time for this and for my future home,’ she said. ‘Those defects are about structural problems that can cause safety hazards and I can’t imagine how this could happen to me.’

  8. ‘approved to sell one of the Bay Area properties a bankrupt developer managed to finish before his real estate empire collapsed — and more sales are in view. The pending property purchases arise from a federal court proceeding linked to a securities fraud case’

    Fraud? But jingle said…bay aryan empire collapsed? Wa happened to my red hotcakes? Weather!

    2. “securities fraud”

      At its core appraisal and mortgage fraud is securities fraud. And it’s rampant.

  9. “Economist Matthew Gardner says housing prices can only go so high. ‘There must always be a relationship between home prices and incomes.'”

    Not really, at least not always.

    Housing prices will go as high as dummies who have access to money will push them. The money these dummies have access to will most likely be borrowed money, not earned money.

  10. “…Economist Matthew Gardner says housing prices can only go so high. ‘There must always be a relationship between home prices and incomes. That is just a fact of life,’ he said. ‘We are getting certainly very close to that affordability ceiling, and what’s going to happen — and we are already starting to see it — is a bit of softening in list prices…”

    “that affordability ceiling” was passed long ago. Its just that buyers had stars in their eyes and were hypnotized (usually by their REIConplex agent) that they were about to become giga millionaires.

    The problem are [forever increasing] holding costs. Property taxes, insurance, maintenance, HOA fees, utilities. Unless a bottomless HELOC is in place, can’t service those costs with more debt. It’s cash on the barrel.

    That hypnosis didn’t wear off until way pass signing on Mr. Bankers dotted line.

    Now the party is over and the real headaches begin. Good luck with that.

  12. While waiting for the real fun to happen in the coming months, I’ve been scouring for old resources. Remember “Professor Piggington”? He’s got his old pages still up, for example this gem from Sep 2006 (https://www.piggington.com/node?page=39)

    **********
    …the following quote from El Cajon Councilman Gary Kendrick, as appearing in a recent U-T article on El Cajon’s stalled condo conversion market. Mr. Kendrick is singled out only because this is a very typical example of the many similar proclamations I’ve heard expressed by assorted authority figures in recent times. Says Gary:

    “It’s simply the market cycle that happens every few years, and right now we are in a cooling-off period and that may last a year or two,” he said. “Three years from now, people will be saying, ‘I wish I bought one of those condo conversions in 2006.’ ”

    **********

    1. Rich still posts (most recent on 8/7). I don’t follow him anywhere near as much as I did back in 2005.

  13. Cynthia Huang paid tens of thousands of dollars in 2016 for a deposit on her dream apartment in the twin-towers development and said she was devastated when she first heard there were problems with the buildings.”

    Stupid should hurt, Cynthia. Otherwise fools never learn.

  14. ‘They still own the real estate. They just aren’t getting any rent.’”

    Gosh, that doesn’t sound like a sustainable business model.

  15. Gosh, I hope soaring inflation doesn’t impact anyone’s ability to pay a huge mortgage on an overpriced shack that they stretched to buy because Suzanne’s research convinced them prices will only go up.

    Gas customers react to soaring prices in Arlington, Va.

    https://www.foxnews.com/us/gas-customers-react-gas-prices-arlington-virginia

    Gas customers complained about soaring prices in Arlington, Va., during interviews with Fox News on Thursday.

    “It’s killing me. It takes 60 bucks to fill up the 2020 Camaro and it takes $52 to fill up my 2016 Chevy Malibu,” Tony, a Shell customer, told Fox News. “It’s crazy.”

      1. I guess voters always think that the harmful things their candidate wants to do will only affect other people.

        Also, they don’t make the connections and come to the ultimate conclusion: cars (and A/C, meat, traveling, etc.) are for rich people. Plebes are supposed to take the bus, sweat, eat bugs and stay home.

    2. It’s killing me. It takes 60 bucks to fill up the 2020 Camaro

      Imagine what it takes to fill up a pickup truck, and how quickly it sucks the tank dry.

    3. Can’t they simply do a cash-out refi with that sweet equity (grows daily!) and use that to fill up the family car?

    4. so what? it’s $100 to fill my Land Cruiser. newsflash to stupid Tony: “yo,Tony, things.never.stay.the.same. plan accordingly!”

  16. Today is Friday, August 13th and Joe Biden is not the legitimately elected president of the United States.

    Globalists, this is not over.

    You will be tried, convicted, and hung for treason.

  17. There must always be a relationship between home prices and incomes.

    Not when the Fed prints up a bunch of brrrrr for the big club that we’re not in.
    We’ll rent everything and be happy.

    1. It will be interesting to see what happens after CONgress approves Joe’s mother of pork barrel bills. Will the Blackrocks buy more houses? I found out that a friend in Denver just sold his shack to Zillow.

  18. get your visa and move to another country they cant sue you there…

    , I won’t get out,’ he said. ‘It’s very hard for us to find another purchaser.’”

    1. get your visa and move to another country

      Unless you have a lot of money that is easier said than done.

  19. buyers is pleading with the NSW government to help break their contracts after purchasing off-the-plan units
    Looks like Contract Law may not exist in Australia soon.
    Hey Congress (Joe buddy), can I get my money back on Pets.com? I was lied to when I was told stocks only go up!

  21. Apparently, it’s for real. Why they are moving forward with his is beyond me (from the 9News website):

    LAKEWOOD, Colo. — It just seems fitting.

    “South Park” co-creators Trey Parker and Matt Stone confirmed during a virtual news conference on Friday that they’ve reached an agreement to purchase iconic local restaurant Casa Bonita.

    While they’ve reached an agreement, it’s still pending based on bankruptcy litigation. But, Stone and Parker said they’ve agreed on terms to purchase the famous Lakewood restaurant.

    Casa Bonita has been closed for food service since last spring, when it was shuttered due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The owners declared bankruptcy earlier this year, and recent court filings show the owner discussed possibly of opening in late July or August.

    Perhaps in traditional “South Park” style, the plan is not going just for a simple purchase and continuation of service. Parker and Stone said on Friday that they want to dive off the restaurant’s famous waterfall. They also have plans to improve the notoriously unappetizing food, they said.

    Casa Bonita has made appearances on “South Park” over the years, with Eric Cartman once calling Casa Bonita “my most favorite place in the world.”

    1. Bless them, that’s great news. Nice to see people stepping up to save a landmark rather than protesting for its demise.

  22. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has confirmed that COVID-19 booster shots are on the way, and everyone will likely need to get one.

    We sure went quickly from “no boosters” to “some need boosters” to “everyone will need a booster”.

    Somehow, I’m supposed to trust these people. I’m supposed to believe the stories of hospitals bursting at the seams (even though the infection rate is far below the peak). I’m supposed to believe the numbers. But the worst thing of all, is that people are still lapping it up.

    Heaven help us if the ADE threat comes true.

    1. I said in jest long ago, but with these people in charge, they will force taking shots at least once a month.

    2. The Pedo Joe administration is discussing requiring proof of vaxx for interstate travel.

      Thomas Jefferson’s tree of liberty is growing more thirsty every day…

      1. “Papers please” is going to be impossible to enforce. There are probably a hundred roads to get just from Maryland into Pennsylvania. Are they going to stop every single out-of-state plate?

        1. They can block secondary roads with concrete barriers, forcing all interstate traffic onto bigger roads with check points.

      2. s discussing requiring proof of vaxx for interstate travel

        I’m sure a lot of states will refuse to enforce that mandate on their borders. That said, I’m also sure the FAA can put you on a no fly list. And I’ll bet that airlines will be happy to cooperate.

    3. How Manipulation Works

      1. Fear – do this or something bad will happen
      2. Flattery – do this and you’re a good person
      3. Bribery – do this and we’ll do something good for you
      4. Violence – do this or else

      By the way, we’re at step 3

        1. the BFB LIVES!! (“my good friend”. . . always knew it was you from the start. . . haha)

          gonna have to start charging you rent for living in my head

  25. From the Colorado Sun:

    Racial segregation is getting worse in big U.S. cities — except for Colorado Springs

    Among the 113 largest cities examined by researchers for a decade only two qualified as “integrated.” One of them was Colorado Springs. Denver ranked as “highly segregated”

    That’s unpossible! I’m sure Mayor Hancock and Councilwoman Cindy CDeBaca would never allow Dumver to be highly segregated. Plus all the progressive voters in their million dollar shacks have BLM signs on their front lawns!

  26. With Comrades Biden & Pelosi giving the green light for illegal immigration, is it any surprise that illegal crossings of our southern border just hit a 21-year high?

    Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey calls for Biden’s DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to RESIGN over leaked audio of him saying the border crisis is ‘unsustainable’ and ‘we’re going to lose’ with crossings at a 21-year high

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9891273/Bidens-DHS-chief-says-border-crisis-unsustainable-going-lose-leaked-audio.html

    Arizona Governor Doug Ducey is calling on Biden DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to step down after leaked audio revealed Mayorkas saying the border crisis is ‘unsustainable’ and ‘we’re going to lose’ with illegal crossings at a 21-year high.

    Mayorkas privately admitted to Border Patrol agents in Texas that Joe Biden’s government is struggling under the influx of migrants and admitted he knew the infrastructure in place to deal with it was near ‘breaking.’

  27. Interesting timing for this given Lindell’s Cyber Symposium.

    https://kmph.com /news/ nation-world/ evidence-presented-to-grand-jury-in-durhams-russia-probe:

    John Durham, the federal prosecutor tapped to investigate the origins of the Russia investigation, has been presenting evidence before a grand jury as part of his probe, a person familiar with the matter said Friday.

    The development is a potential sign that Durham may be mulling additional criminal charges beyond the one he brought last year against a former FBI lawyer who admitted altering an email about a Trump campaign aide who’d been under FBI surveillance. Durham is also expected to complete a report at some point.

    A Justice Department spokesman declined to comment, citing an ongoing investigation.

    The Wall Street Journal reported earlier Friday that Durham was presenting evidence to a grand jury and contemplating possible charges against some FBI employees and others outside government. A person familiar with the matter, who was not authorized to discuss it by name and spoke on condition of anonymity, confirmed Durham’s use of the grand jury to The Associated Press.

    1. Not holding my breath, but . . .

      https:// twitter.com/ CBS_Herridge/ status/ 1426157058676641800:

      #SpecialCounselDurham — RE-READ ORDER from 10/19/20 “In addition to the confidential report required by 28 C.F.R. § 600.8(c), the SpecialCounsel, to the maximum extent possible and consistent with the law and the policies + practices of the Department of Justice, shall submit…

      to the Attorney General a final report, and such interim reports as he deems appropriate, in a form that will permit public dissemination” + “authorized to prosecute federal crimes arising from his investigation” #MeaningfulFindings
      https://justice.gov/file/1370931/download

  28. Arlington, VA Housing Prices Crater 30% YOY As Foreclosures And Mortgage Defaults Ripple Across Northern Viriginia

    https://www.movoto.com/arlington-va/market-trends/

    As one DC area broker explained, “I had a sale in January of last year for $380k. That same house sold last week for $220k. That’s a helluva beating right there.”

  29. Not a fan of the song but for those who experienced the decade this is a pretty cool video that takes you back through the 80s. Someone about 12 comments down did a lot of work to identify each clip.

    Waiting For A Star To Fall: A Tribute to 80’s Entertainment

    https://youtu.be/Z0eflYLkI4A

  30. Quartz
    The US used-car bubble has burst
    Samanth Subramanian
    Wed, August 11, 2021, 7:10 AM·2 min read

    The US consumer price index rose 0.5% in July—the lowest such month-on-month rise since February, according to new data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The tempered rate of inflation, which should allay the market’s fears of an overheated economy, owed a lot to a slowdown in the prices of used cars, which had galloped upwards in the spring and early summer.

    The price index for used vehicles rose 0.2% in July, after having risen at least 7.3% in each of the previous three months. The category was one of the few, along with hotel rooms and airfares, that drove recent inflation, the economist Paul Krugman pointed out on Twitter. “Combined, these three sectors account for…more than 1/2 [half] of inflation over the past three months,” Krugman wrote. In May, in fact, a full third of the overall price rise was due to the surge in used car prices.
    …

    2. I follow several specific car models, and I have noticed that inventory is steadily increasing, and they linger until the price is reduced into the ranking called, “great price!”

    2. Was reading that returning Australian Olympians are being subject to double quarantine. Makes you wonder why they bothered to go back.

      Next year’s World Cup in Qatar should be interesting. A shame that they spent all that money building stadiums that might be empty.

    1. TREASURIES-Yields tumble on plummeting consumer sentiment
      Karen Pierog
      Fri, August 13, 2021, 12:20 PM·
      4 min read

      Sinking consumer sentiment accelerated a fall in U.S. Treasury yields on Friday amid low trading volume as the market looked to the Federal Reserve and upcoming data for signs that could push rates higher. The benchmark 10-year yield, which traded as low as 1.293%, was last down 6.7 basis points at 1.3001%. That was about 17 basis points above a six-month low of 1.127% reached on Aug. 4. The University of Michigan said its preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 70.2 in the first half of August from a final reading of 81.2 in July. That was the lowest level since 2011 and there have been only two larger declines in the index over the past 50 years.

      Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index would remain unchanged at 81.2. The big drop, combined with thin liquidity in the market and concerns over the Delta variant of the coronavirus, helped drive Treasury yields lower, according to Ben Jeffery, U.S. rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets. Yields, which move inversely to prices, had been on an upward trajectory over the past week that showed some potential for breaking out of the market’s “unrelenting lower-rate mentality,” but solid auctions of 10-year notes and 30-year bonds this week stopped the move in its tracks, said George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG in New York.

      He added that the release next week of minutes from the Fed’s July meeting and the central bank’s Jackson Hole event later this month could fuel an uptick in yields. “And if (the August employment report) is strong in the first week of September, that’s what I’m looking for to make this conclusive ‘hey this was a bottom in rates and we’re turning higher,'” Goncalves said.

      The Fed meeting minutes due out on Wednesday should “detail how close policymakers are to making key decisions” concerning tapering of the central bank’s asset purchases, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research report on Friday.
      …

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