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Sliding From Boom To Bust In Spectacular Fashion

A report from Fast Company. “When Zillow announced Tuesday that it was shutting down its algorithm-fueled home-flipping operation, few in Phoenix were likely surprised. Phoenix area real estate agent Greg Corbett had a hunch that the companies’ computer-assisted buying activity was playing the market by slightly different rules. Word kept coming from clients and fellow agents that the iBuyers were making offers for homes that were significantly higher than offers from non-algorithmic sources, sometimes 10% or 20% over the asking price.”

“As these anecdotes became more common, Corbett logged into the MLS and ran a search to see just how many listings were coming from iBuyers. Of the thousands of listings in Maricopa and Pinal counties, which make up most of metropolitan Phoenix, he expected iBuyers to account for maybe a few percentage points. The database showed Zillow, Offerpad, and Opendoor owning more than a tenth of listed homes. ‘To have them at 12%, 14%, that was a surprise to me,’ Corbett says.”

From Market Watch. “Zillow Group had a wealth of data, access to millions of dollars in capital and executives with the hubris to believe they could use these tools to outsmart both a volatile housing market and startups specializing in buying and selling houses. They failed, and lost more than half a billion dollars in the process. An unprecedented home-buying spree saw the internet-based real-estate-services company buy more than 14,000 homes in just six months. Only after that spree did Zillow executives realize that they had overspent, and were sitting on massive losses in the months to come.”

From Candy’s Dirt. “Veterans in the industry may well be saying, ‘I told you so.’ Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller-Samuelson, is one of those. Last month when he and I talked, we both felt the Zillow ‘pause’ was weird. Artificial. Zillow was blaming the pause on being short-staffed. ‘This tells us that what they said last month, their story for turning off the tap, was not accurate,’ says Miller. ‘I think they were hoping to find a way out.'”

“‘The Zestimate is unreliable,’ says Miller, who is a veteran appraiser. ‘Here is the valuation methodology: 50 percent of the time it’s within 2 percent of accuracy, 50 percent it is not … and that only applies to listed properties. They used their own money, and the experiment failed.'”

The San Francisco Chronicle in California. “Zillow’s collapse, and the almost-certain collapse of iBuying in general, came as no surprise to me. I sold my house to Redfin several months ago — and watched the company get clobbered trying to flip it. It all went down in the spring when I was trying to sell my house in Los Angeles. That was when I saw an ad on Redfin that promised to ‘buy my home’ sight unseen. Never in my wildest dreams did I think I’d be the one to make a big tech company look like a sucker.”

“Redfin listed the place a few weeks after purchasing it from me for roughly the same price they bought it. And I watched and waited for a sale. And waited. And waited. And waited. The house sat. Meanwhile, the price kept dropping. It finally sold four months later. And Redfin ate a big loss. All told, the company bought the place from me for roughly 9% more than they were able to get on the open market. They also carried all the costs of fixing the place up and maintaining it while it sat.”

From Hometown Station in California. “An elderly couple, Ellen and George Elliot-Applegate, purchased a home in Verano at Aliento, a 55-year or older community on the east end of the Santa Clarita Valley in Canyon Country, to hopefully settle down in for the rest of their lives, but the couple is now at risk of losing their home to foreclosure by the hands of the same lender. When the couple first contacted Richard Szerman of Alta Realty Group in a desperate attempt to keep their home, Szerman uncovered repeated acts of fraud and unprofessionalism that had pushed the couple to the brink of foreclosure.”

“They first attempted to get a loan modification on the first mortgage, but the Elliot-Applegates did not qualify for any mortgage relief, partially because they ‘never should have qualified for the first mortgage in the first place,’ according to Szerman. ‘While this goes on, the HOA continues to go unpaid. The solar system remains unpaid. The taxes and insurance go unpaid,’ Szerman said. ‘It is only a matter of time before Fannie Mae (the first lender) is forced to foreclosure despite their willingness to work with the Elliot-Applegates to avoid exactly that outcome.'”

From Fitch Ratings. “The near-term operating outlook for Fitch-rated U.S. non-bank mortgage companies is negative, given declining origination volumes, continued pressure on gain-on-sale (GOS) margins and increasing regulatory scrutiny, Fitch Ratings says. Non-bank mortgage companies have grown rapidly since the global financial crisis and now represent eight of the top 10 mortgage lenders and servicers in the U.S. However, most have relatively short operating histories, with the pandemic the first rate/credit cycle for many issuers.”

“Non-bank mortgage originators reported record profitability in 2020 and 1Q21, driven by GOS margin expansion reflecting mortgage industry capacity constraints, increased MBS purchases by the Fed and elevated origination volumes as people refinanced in a low-rate environment. Volumes were strong in 2Q21, but profitability was abruptly and negatively affected as higher rates emerged, with increased competition and narrowing of spreads leading to compression of GOS margins.”

“GOS margins will remain under pressure, with 2H21 originations expected to fall 20%-30% YoY per the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The competitive environment is not expected to abate in the near term, with industry overcapacity stemming from capital raised through IPOs, equity and high-yield debt issuances and robust 2020 earnings. The effect of lower volume and GOS pressure on profitability, while negative for all rated issuers, is most adverse for wholesale originators such as United Wholesale Mortgage, Home Point Financial and Provident Funding, which saw outsized margin compression relative to others.”

“Total delinquencies for single-family mortgage loans were 5.5% at Aug. 21 (as per the MBA National Delinquency Survey), down 275 bps YoY, although 90+ day delinquencies remain three times higher than pre-pandemic levels. The government foreclosure moratorium was lifted in July, and as COVID-19 hardship forbearance programs roll off, a growing number of borrowers are exiting forbearances in a delinquent status, which is expected to increase loss mitigation and foreclosure activity.”

The Sydney Morning Herald in Australia. “The huge level of debt taken on by home buyers through the COVID pandemic will stop the Reserve Bank from driving up interest rates with experts warning even a small lift in borrowing costs could drive the country back into recession. The RBA will face challenges dealing with any future economic downturn as home buyers deal with a $130 billion increase in extra mortgage lending taken up during the pandemic.”

“Bank governor Philip Lowe, rejecting market expectations of a rate rise next year, said any increase in lending rates would pack more punch because of the level of debt now carried by most Australians. ‘The fact that debt levels are quite high at the moment means that interest rate increases will be quite effective,’ he said in a press conference on Tuesday. ‘People have more debt. So the cash flow channel is more effective when people have more debt.'”

“AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said the large amount carried by Australians meant the RBA could only incrementally increase interest rates. ‘If the Reserve Bank increased interest rates by 100 basis points in a year, it would drive the country back into recession,’ he said.”

“Australian Bureau of Statistics’ lending data shows the average new mortgage in NSW has now reached an all-time high of $685,000, an increase of $120,000 over the past 12 months. In Victoria, the average has climbed by $116,000 to a record $558,000.”

From Bloomberg. “The selloff in China’s stressed property developers resumed on Thursday, amid signs of contagion spreading to the onshore market. Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd.’s bonds and shares tumbled after a wealth-management product guaranteed by the company missed a payment deadline. China’s dollar high-yield debt fell for the 10th day in 11 after yields climbed above 21%. Trading was halted in two yuan bonds from other real estate firms after they plunged more than 20%.”

“Spiking borrowing costs are making it all but impossible for developers to refinance debt, while property market curbs are weighing on home sales. At least four firms in the industry defaulted last month and others sought to delay near-term bond payments. Credit assessors are downgrading real estate companies at the fastest pace on record.”

“An Evergrande financing company pledged mortgages it provided to about 100 flats in a Hong Kong residential project as collateral for a loan, HK01 reported. Apartment owners’ combined mortgages in the Evergrande project totaled as much as HK$400 million ($51 million), according to the report, which didn’t give the size of the loan Evergrande received. Some of the mortgages were pledged in June 2020, it said.”

“Junk-rated Chinese debt was one of the most profitable trades in global credit for nearly a decade. Now such bonds are sliding from boom to bust in spectacular fashion. A developer-packed index of the country’s junk-rated dollar bonds has lost about 26% since the end of May, the steepest decline in a decade. New issuance from builders has dwindled to the lowest level in 18 months, and even some investment-grade property giants are facing sharply higher borrowing costs. High-profile Chinese bond funds managed by Fidelity and Value Partners are headed for record annual losses.”

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  2. ‘An Evergrande financing company pledged mortgages it provided to about 100 flats in a Hong Kong residential project as collateral for a loan, HK01 reported. Apartment owners’ combined mortgages in the Evergrande project totaled as much as HK$400 million ($51 million), according to the report, which didn’t give the size of the loan Evergrande received. Some of the mortgages were pledged in June 2020’

    So they are using loans as collateral for a loan, on unbuilt airboxes. Renting furniture to burn to stay warm?

    ‘Junk-rated Chinese debt was one of the most profitable trades in global credit for nearly a decade’

    It’s junk! Says so right in the name.

    I can just hear the Bloomberg calls:

    “I need a report on this Evergrande thing.”

    “Boss, the turd is sinking even faster.”

    “How about now.”

    “Even faster Boss!”

    1. “So they are using loans as collateral for a loan…”

      Debt instruments are the backbone of the U.S. economy. If debtors started taking One a Day multi vitamins en mass, Wall street indices would spike, and they’d haul out the party favors, strippers and the punch bowl.

  3. ‘Zillow was blaming the pause on being short-staffed. ‘This tells us that what they said last month, their story for turning off the tap, was not accurate’

    Somebody was a lion?

    1. Remember when lying to shareholders & investors would’ve brought down the wrath of the SEC? Me neither.

  5. ‘Non-bank mortgage companies have grown rapidly since the global financial crisis and now represent eight of the top 10 mortgage lenders and servicers in the U.S. However, most have relatively short operating histories, with the pandemic the first rate/credit cycle for many issuers’

    Oh dear…

    ‘while negative for all rated issuers, is most adverse for wholesale originators such as United Wholesale Mortgage, Home Point Financial and Provident Funding, which saw outsized margin compression’

    Have you ever heard of these outfits? Neither have I! But rest assured, they have rented phones, coffee makers and ficus trees to back this all up.

    ‘Total delinquencies for single-family mortgage loans were 5.5% at Aug. 21 (as per the MBA National Delinquency Survey), down 275 bps YoY, although 90+ day delinquencies remain three times higher than pre-pandemic levels’

    This is what the REIC won’t say: a 1% default rate is crater. We’ve been running above that for many years, and lending more into the face of it to keep the sh$tcart going.

    1. “This is what the REIC won’t say: a 1% default rate is crater.”

      The cluck-clucks and the bray-brays struggle to wrap their empty skulls around this too.

    2. ‘Non-bank mortgage companies have grown rapidly since the global financial crisis and now represent eight of the top 10 mortgage lenders
      If you go back and look at the 2007-2009 largest mortgage companies you will see the same thing happened. Plus this time, at least some TBTF Banks opted out of doing FHA which should mean the non-bank mortgage companies are holding some really toxic stuff should a recession or price declines occur.
      A guy I worked with for about 6 years is now a CFO at a Mortgage servicing company. I may text him and get his take.

    4. This is what the REIC won’t say: a 1% default rate is crater. We’ve been running above that for many years, and lending more into the face of it to keep the sh$tcart going.

      I am not question that —- but looking for a little explanation on why 1% is so bad

  6. ‘they ‘never should have qualified for the first mortgage in the first place’

    Where have I heard this before?

    I’ll let you read the gory details. But remember, this is a Fannie Mae loan.

    1. googl-foo Verano at Aliento

      This is a development of maybe 50(?) cheap-looking ugly homes in the Ugly Brown Bumpy part of California. Houses were 2-3 bedroom apartments priced at $590-$750K, not including two different HOA fees. It sold out at the end of 2019.

      I simply do *not* understand people anymore. This has to be one of the most unattractive places I’ve seen. I think I’d rather live in a run-down motel or trailer park, or those scattered houses in Golden Valley AZ and take my chances with the meth addicts.

      1. Verano at Aliento” I know where that is . Stevenson ranch is also close by. Its expensive .

        Phoenix AZ is way hotter.

        Quick fact last two big earthquakes knocked down interstate 5 over pass right near there.

          1. cultural appropriation I just finished my mandatory unconscious bias training screw doing any real work

  7. ‘The Zestimate is unreliable,’ says Miller, who is a veteran appraiser. ‘Here is the valuation methodology: 50 percent of the time it’s within 2 percent of accuracy, 50 percent it is not … and that only applies to listed properties. They used their own money, and the experiment failed’

    More on this tomorrow, but they didn’t use their own money. They borrowed it at less than 3%. Sound lending!

    1. IIRC, Zillow executives also dumped their stock. Insider trading on material non-public information???

    2. Regular readers of this blog have realized for years that the Zestimates zuck, and are systematically biased upwards, reflecting a firm religious conviction that real estate always goes up. It’s great to see them choke on their own cooking.

      “They failed, and lost more than half a billion dollars in the process.”

      Seems like they bought high and are now selling low. Isn’t that bass ackwards from how investors are supposed to make money? And given how underwater they are on the homes they recently bought, I certainly hope there was no leverage involved in the purchases, as that could greatly amplify their underwaterness.

      “An unprecedented home-buying spree saw the internet-based real-estate-services company buy more than 14,000 homes in just six months.”

      Powell bux found themselves lotsa toetag homes, thanks to Zillow.

  9. The globalists and their Democrat-Bolshevik Quislings have a pathological aversion to citizens being able to arm themselves for self-defense, as each vibrant that gets offed while engaged in cultural enrichment is one less lifetime Democrat voter.

    The end of NYC’s notoriously restrictive gun laws? SCOTUS signals it will rule against limits on concealed carry in NY State because it goes against Second Amendment’s core right of ‘self defense’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10162759/Supreme-Court-looks-set-EXPAND-Second-Amendment-rights-strike-NY-concealed-carry-law.html

    The Supreme Court is likely to expand gun rights in New York after several justices expressed concern over the state’s high bar requiring ‘proper cause’ to obtain a concealed carry permit – possibly indicating an end to the state’s notoriously restrictive gun laws.

    Gun rights advocates presented their arguments Wednesday to the nation’s highest court – which hasn’t taken up a Second Amendment case in more than a decade – challenging the state’s law and pushing for a solution to balance gun rights and public safety.

  10. ‘Word kept coming from clients and fellow agents that the iBuyers were making offers for homes that were significantly higher than offers from non-algorithmic sources, sometimes 10% or 20% over the asking price’

    Non-algorithmic: we are getting closer to discovering artificial intelligence!

    What’ the latest offer? 500 thousand pesos.

    What’s the magic 8 ball say? Offer 600 thousand pesos.

    But shouldn’t we make our offers up in smaller increments?

    Just do what the 8 ball says dammit!

    A winnah!

    1. The database showed Zillow, Offerpad, and Opendoor owning more than a tenth of listed homes. ‘To have them at 12%, 14%, that was a surprise to me,’ Corbett says.”

      This right here is what’s been driving prices, and all of it goes back to the FED and its low rates and horrific asset price bubbles. This whole sh!thouse needs to melt down.

  11. Nothing enrages the globalists and their stooges like seeing former sheeple open their eyes to the true nature of the Democrat-Bolshevik party and agenda, and cease voting for their own destruction.

    Incoming! Commies Blaming Mommies for Tuesday’s Scalping #WhiteWomen Onslaught

    https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/kevindowneyjr/2021/11/03/incoming-commies-blaming-mommies-for-tuesdays-scalping-whitewomen-onslaught-n1529526

    Leftist haters are blaming “racist” white women in Virginia and their distaste for all things woke for the collapse of their clownish agenda. This is especially amusing when you note that Biden won Virginia by 10 points over Trump, which means many women who voted for Youngkin likely voted for Biden one year ago.

    1. according to lefties and their beloved CRT, all white people are racist. So if these racist white women had voted for McAuliffe, would that make them slightly less racist? Still racist but at an acceptable level of racism? Or still disgusting racists who need to be exterminated, no matter what they do?

      1. The only sociasl media I belong to is NextDoor. It’s usefulness is limited and I rarely use it. It of course has been heavy handed in censoring posts that question the vaccines, or which criticize Democrat policies.

        So someone posted that CRT is not taught in any school district in the country. That sure sounds like a political post to me. And guess what? I went to check and it hasn’t been removed.

        1. From the few things I’ve looked at in recent months, Nextdoor seems to have morphed into a countywide Facebook. It no longer focuses on my nearest neighborhoods.

  12. Phoenix area real estate agent Greg Corbett had a hunch that the companies’ computer-assisted buying activity was playing the market by slightly different rules.

    Zillow’s business model was only possible in a world awash in Yellen Bux.

  13. “Zillow’s collapse, and the almost-certain collapse of iBuying in general, came as no surprise to me. I sold my house to Redfin several months ago — and watched the company get clobbered trying to flip it.

    Every time a flipper flops, an angel gets its wings.

  14. Having learned nothing from the Democrat-Bolshevik’s election shellacking, the Biden regime is dialing up the tyranny to 11. #FJB

    BREAKING NEWS: Businesses face fines of up to $14,000 for EACH unvaccinated worker and $136,532 for repeat offenders under Biden’s new mandates that have to be in place by January 4 and will impact more than 80 million

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10164953/14-000-fines-unvaccinated-workers-Bidens-new-COVID-rules.html

    Private companies could face nearly $14,000 fines for each unvaccinated worker – and up to $136,532 for repeat offenders or those found to have willfully violated the rules under the Biden administration’s new sweeping mandates that start today.

    The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) announced the final version of the new rule on Thursday morning, which will impact more than 80 million workers at companies nationwide with at least 100 employees.

      1. I read somewhere that the Supremes are going to look into this sometime next year.

        Hey, guys, how about looking into it NOW. Or how about at least pausing the mandate until you’re good and ready the hear the case?

        It won’t do countless millions any good if you rule next year that the mandate is unconstitutional, if they get the jab this month to save their jobs.

        1. Yup. They know full well that you can’t suck a vaccine out of someone’s arm. That’s why they’re rushing it.

          Here’s another snippet from the Daily Mail: “Senate Republicans launched an effort on Wednesday to use a congressional procedure to overturn Biden’s new vaccine mandate announced in September as his administration tries to force increases in vaccination rates.”

          IIUC, Congress can pass a law to overturn ANY regulation approved by a regulatory body. I’ve seen this happen. Somebody didn’t like a regulation, he brought a lawsuit, he won, Congress got involved and passed a law to overturn the regulation. They had to rewrite the CFR to follow the law.

    2. under Biden’s new mandates that have to be in place by January 4 and will impact more than 80 million

      My understanding is that the drop dead date is Dec 8.

      1. FedGov drop-dead is November 22. Which makes the real drop-dead date November 8 (Monday). That’s the day fedgovs have to get either their second mRNA shot or the single J&J shot.

        Individual agencies are deciding how to enforce. Technically, they could fire someone on November 9 if they don’t get a shot, but it’s more likely agencies will just start the process and give the fedgov every opportunity to choose to be vaxxed.

        At least OSHA is allowing employees to take (and pay for) the weekly testing option. Perhaps they can delay the shots until this gets through the court system.

    3. It’s getting worse:

      “On Wednesday San Francisco announced that children aged 5-11 will be forced to prove they’ve had the shot to enter restaurants and entertainment venues.”

      Once again I am grateful that I do not have children. I think I would have fought against this.

      1. A reasonable response is to stop the whole family from going to these businesses. The Marxists will stop at nothing to destroy our economy and way of life.

      2. That said, I’m slightly confused. All the news stories said that the FDA committee recommended an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for kid-size Pfizer, and days later Walensky at the CDC gave “final approval.” Did the CDC give final approval to the FDA’s EUA, or did they give full-full approval? Remember adult-size Pfizer was under EUA for about six months before getting full approval. Moderna and J&J are still under only EUA.

        Can they do final approval really that fast? Because I don’t think any jurisdiction can require something that’s still EUA.

        1. I’m slightly confused

          That’s the point. They want parents to think it’s approved.

          I made it clear to my son’s teacher yesterday that I will file criminal charges if my son is jabbed at a school clinic. NYC already has them. The teacher’s son wants the jab so he can play with his friend whose parents are chomping at the bit to jab him.

        2. adult-size Pfizer was under EUA for about six months before getting full approval

          Last I read, the approved product is a label that’s not even available in the US. What a circus.

          1. 👍🏻 I’ve read Cormirnaty is a different formulation, no matter what impression they’re giving. Not yet available in US. Deliberately misleading.

            I also read yesterday (twitter) that something has been added to guard against heart attacks in children. That’s comforting. I will try to find it.

          2. I also read yesterday (twitter) that something has been added to guard against heart attacks in children. That’s comforting. I will try to find it.

            This is 100% pure EVIL.

    4. There was a song written long ago about this:

      THE SEEDS – PUSHIN’ TOO HARD

      You’re pushin’ too hard, uh-pushin’ on me
      You’re pushin’ too hard, uh-what you want me to be
      You’re pushin’ too hard about the things you say
      You’re pushin’ too hard every night and day
      You’re pushin’ too hard
      Pushin’ too hard on me (too hard)

      Well all I want is to just be free
      Live my life the way I wanna be
      All I want is to just have fun
      Live my life like it’s just begun
      But you’re pushin’ too hard
      Pushin’ too hard on me (too hard)

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IReb27tFqMg

    5. The mandate (which was never a mandate) will accomplish its task and will never be enforced because people will have caved. It is/was all a word salad.

  16. Oh dear…there’s that C-word again. No, not the one that describes white males who vote D – but “contagion.”

    Kaisa Faces Liquidity Pressure; Bonds Tumble: Evergrande Update

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-04/coupon-payment-due-saturday-kaisa-plunges-evergrande-update?sref=ibr3A0ff

    The selloff in China’s stressed property developers resumed on Thursday, amid signs of contagion spreading to the onshore market.

    Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd.’s bonds and shares tumbled after a wealth-management product guaranteed by the company missed a payment deadline. China’s dollar high-yield debt fell for the 10th day in 11 after yields climbed above 21%. Trading was halted in two yuan bonds from other real estate firms after they plunged more than 20%.

  17. ** ” While this goes on, the HOA continues to go unpaid. The solar system remains unpaid. The taxes and insurance go unpaid,’ Szerman said.”

    Neil deGrassi Tyson says the solar system needs either a better lobbyist or some government-backed men-with-badges & guns for enforcement.

  18. I fear a brave face may not suffice to forestall a bursting housing bubble. Stiffed contractors handed the titles to rapidly depreciating, shoddily-constructed skyboxes in lieu of payment will soon be adding their work boots to the stamping of little feet.

    Evergrande crisis: delivery of homes continues to decline, vendors receive property in lieu of overdue payments

    https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3154761/evergrande-crisis-delivery-homes-continues-decline-vendors

    Embattled China Evergrande Group is putting on a brave face even as it teeters on the brink of collapse, saying it has been steadily delivering homes and repaying suppliers as required by the central government.
    The Chinese developer, saddled with 1.97 trillion yuan (US$308.5 billion) of liabilities, said on its official WeChat account on Wednesday that it had handed over 57,462 homes since July across 184 projects, from Harbin in northern Heilongjiang province to Urumqi in the northwest autonomous region of Xinjiang.

    However, the number of homes delivered each month has been declining sharply. It handed over 7,568 to buyers in October, one third the volume in July when its liquidity crisis started to escalate.

  19. “… iBuyers were making offers for homes that were significantly higher than offers from non-algorithmic sources, sometimes 10% or 20% over the asking price.”

    Is this great country or what? The PRICE you pay for your latest house purchase generates VALUE for all the comparable houses that you already own. The higher the recorded price the greater the value.

    Paying 10% or 20% over asking magically creates value increases of 10% or 20% for all the comps which:

    1. Makes your balance sheet swell AND …

    2. It sucks in the FOMO crowd, both the house buying FOMO crowd and the stock buying FOMO crowd.

    1. Here is what Zillow Group looks like:

      https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ZG&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

      After you amuse yourself as to how the stock price did a recent price-chart dump scroll down a bit and look at some of the particulars, especially the who-own-what particulars.

      Note that the insiders own a measly 0.10% of the stock and then note that institutions own a whopping 87.5% of the stock. These institution guys are supposed to be the due diligence guys, the smartest guys in the room, the guys who are so smart that they are allowed to handle hundreds of billions of dollars of OTHER PEOPLE’S MONEY.

      Given the same facts these due diligence guys are given I would be willing to place a hefty bet that my paperboy could do a better job of due dil than these institutional pukes.

      A nation of dummies.

        1. An intern. An unpaid one.

          As with many interns he works his ass off in exchange for lots of promises I routinely make to him (empty promises, of course, every one of them 😁).

      3. Yes, they buy this shite for peoples 401K’s.

        I wont put a penny into anything I can’t self direct. Fook their 3% match!

    2. “…The PRICE you pay for your latest house purchase generates VALUE for all the comparable houses that you already own. The higher the recorded price the greater the value….”

      Certainly a component of the iBuyers algorithm.

      Consider this: If the iBuyers could dominate a market, then they could raise the comparables to near infinity! What’s there not to like?

    3. What’s going to happen to the blessed comps when the iBuyers morph into iSellers, like Zilldo just did?

      In a race to the exit door of a crowded, burning theater, it’s always good to reach the door first!

      1. “Zillow’s collapse, and the almost-certain collapse of iBuying in general, came as no surprise to me.”

        Are other iBuyers eyeing the exit door? Please share the stories, if you have them. I can think of few better ways to improve U.S. housing affordability than for this nascent industry to collapse in an Evergrande-style debt implosion.

  20. Italian Institute of Health Drastically Reduces Its Official COVID Death Toll Number

    by Paul Joseph Watson
    November 4th 2021, 6:31 am

    Changes defintiion of COVID death from ‘with COVID’ to ‘by COVID’.

    Italian newspaper Il Tempo reports that the Institute has revised downward the number of people who have died from COVID rather than with COVID from 130,000 to under 4,000.

    “Yes, you read that right. Turns out 97.1% of deaths hitherto attributed to Covid were not due directly to Covid,” writes Toby Young.

    Of the of the 130,468 deaths registered as official COVID deaths since the start of the pandemic, only 3,783 are directly attributable to the virus alone.

    “All the other Italians who lost their lives had from between one and five pre-existing diseases. Of those aged over 67 who died, 7% had more than three co-morbidities, and 18% at least two,” writes Young.

    The Institute’s new definition of a COVID death means that COVID has killed fewer people in Italy than (whisper it) the average bout of seasonal flu.

    If a similar change were made by other national governments, the official COVID death toll would be cut by a margin of greater than 90 per cent.

    https://www.infowars.com/

    1. “According to the Institute, 65.8% of Italians who died after being infected with Covid were ill with arterial hypertension (high blood pressure), 23.5% had dementia, 29.3% had diabetes, and 24.8% atrial fibrillation. Add to that, 17.4% had lung problems, 16.3% had had cancer in the last five years and 15.7% suffered from previous heart failures.”

    2. COVID is the greatest fraud ever perpetuated in my lifetime.

      It’s time to start killing these globalists ☠

    3. It’s unfortunate that the average Joe/Jane doesn’t know about this. I am so sick of encountering people who are terrified of the virus. When I tell them that I’m unvaxxed, had Covid, and that it was no big deal, they think I’m lying. “Didn’t you have trouble breathing?” Nope. “Were you bedridden?” “Nope. Were you burning with fever?” Never above 101F, usually below 100. And I’m an old geezer, so I should be hiding under my bed. But I’m not obese and am in generally good health.

      1. Unfortunately, one of the hallmarks of COVID is that it is very hit-or-miss and not consistent with health. Tim ‘Beanie Boy” Pool is recovering right now. His case was on the serious side of moderate. Lots of pain, fever, couldn’t breathe. He swears he was saved by monoclonal antibodies or else he would have been in the hospital. He’s 35 and had zip-zero co-morbidities, thin and healthy. The correlation is not exact.

        I still believe that inoculant — initial viral load — is a main driver of severity.

        1. initial viral load — is a main driver of severity.

          How long does it take for the viral population to double?

          It’s only a matter of time.

          1. Inoculation is important because fighting a disease is a race between the replicating virus and your immune system response. Hmm… let’s test it out, with completely made up numbers. I’m going to assume that a virus will double in 1 day, and your body can ramp up a response in say, 10 days. What happens if you inhale 500 virus particles instead of 50 virus particles?

            Low inoc: 50, 100, 200, 400, 800, 1600, 3200, 6400, 12800, 25600.
            High inoc: 500, 1000, 2000, 4000, 8000, 16000, 32000, 64000, 128000, 256000.

            So after the same 10 days, while you body is getting its antibodies together, a high inoc person has to contend with ~10x the amount of virus, hence the more severe symptoms. That’s how young Tim Pool can have a more severe case than middle-aged people like us.

            For COVID, the doubling time appears to be around 3 days, but I believe that was for Alpha variant. The concept is the same.

          3. I know you’re being facetious. 😎

            The concept of the “thought experiment” has been around since Ancient Greece.

        2. Totally agree. If I inhale a few virions at the supermarket, my body has time to mount a defense. Whereas, if my workplace cubicle neighbor is coughing up a miasma, then my lungs are going to be shotgunned full of virions over the course of 8 hours, and I’m going in some trouble.

          1. “…if my workplace cubicle neighbor is coughing up a miasma…”

            I took little comfort in the woman across the aisle from me on a recent flight wearing a mask, given that she was coughing up a lung.

      2. I will never get another vaccine for anything for the rest of my life.

        These globalists are pushing us closer to a civil war every day.

        Thousands of dead kidz age 5 to 11 is gonna be the tipping point.

        1. Thousands of dead kidz age 5 to 11 is gonna be the tipping point.

          You underestimate the idiocy and stupidity of their parents. Even after their kids drop dead, the idiots will utter inanities like “we would do it again, because it’s the right thing to do”.

          1. When those kids start dropping dead, it will be a “COVID death,” not a vaxx death.

            We truly live in evil times.

    4. “If a similar change were made by other national governments…”

      Then they would have to make a similar change to the threshold for other diseases too. How many people die “of” the flu instead of “with” the flu? I would be interested in comparing the flu numbers to COVID only AFTER they make that adjustment.

    5. My favorite COVID death was the guy who died in a motorcycle crash, but he had COVID at the time. COVID death!

      1. I have seen people in Denver riding a motorcycle without a helmet while wearing a mask, and I’ve seen it more than once here.

        Clown World gonna clown.

        1. I have seen people in Denver riding a motorcycle without a helmet while wearing a mask, and I’ve seen it more than once here.

          I seriously just erupted in laughter reading this.

      2. That’s as good as one of those listed on the Clinton Body Count. Person almost decapitated, ruled suicide 🤔 Gotta hand it to them for perseverance and pain tolerance.

          1. Les Aspen didn’t fall or stumble. No, he was holding the political banister with white-knuckled hands, so William helped him with a forceful Washington, D.C. shove!

  23. If China faces social unrest from millions of FBs stamping their little feet, would they invade Taiwan to defect the sheeple’s anger?

    China has debated attacking Taiwan-controlled islands, Taiwan official says

    https://news.trust.org/item/20211104114342-6j7mo

    TAIPEI, Nov 4 (Reuters) – A top Taiwan security official told lawmakers on Thursday that China had internally debated whether to attack Taiwan’s Pratas Islands but will not do so before 2024, the year President Tsai Ing-wen’s term ends.

    National Security Bureau Director-General Chen Ming-tong did not say how he knew that such a move had been debated or why it would not happen during the next few years.

    China’s defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Thursday.

    1. That’s one way they could distract the Chinese sheeple from dwelling on their massive housing losses.

    2. Yes. It’s called a “wag the dog” political strategy: distract attention from a national scandal by fabricating an international conflict.

  24. Another Jeb Bush “act of love.”

    Illegal immigrant who posed as minor while crossing border charged with murder in Florida

    https://nypost.com/2021/11/04/illegal-immigrant-who-posed-as-minor-while-crossing-border-charged-with-murder/

    A 24-year-old Honduran immigrant who’s charged with murder in the brutal stabbing death of a Florida man had crossed the US border illegally months earlier while posing as an unaccompanied minor, an investigation by The Post found.

    Yery Noel Medina Ulloa was busted Oct. 7 in Jacksonville when he was found covered in blood after allegedly killing Francisco Javier Cuellar, 46, a father of four who had taken in the immigrant who told authorities he was 17.

  25. ACLU suggests Biden out to lunch over $450K migrant separation payouts

    By Steven Nelson and Samuel Chamberlain
    November 3, 2021 7:41pm

    President Biden “may not have been fully briefed about the actions of his very own Justice Department,” the ACLU charged Wednesday, after he labeled as “garbage” a news report that his administration is considering $450,000-per-person payouts to families separated after illegally crossing the US-Mexico border.

    In a statement, ACLU executive director Anthony Romero warned Biden that he risked “abandoning a core campaign promise to do justice for the thousands of separated families.

    “We respectfully remind President Biden that he called these actions ‘criminal’ in a debate with then-President Trump, and campaigned on remedying and rectifying the lawlessness of the Trump administration,” Romero said. “We call on President Biden to right the wrongs of this national tragedy.”

    Hours earlier, Fox News correspondent Peter Doocy had asked Biden if the payments, which were first reported last week by the Wall Street Journal, could incentivize even more illegal immigration.

    “If you guys keep sending that garbage out? Yeah. But it’s not true,” Biden shot back.

    “So this is a garbage report?” Doocy asked.

    “Yeah. $450,000 per person — is that what you’re saying?” Biden replied. “That’s not gonna happen.”

    https://nypost.com/2021/11/03/aclu-suggests-biden-out-to-lunch-over-450k-migrant-payouts/

    1. Piles of weeks old garbage on the sidewalk, bums and panhandlers posted at tunnels pretending to wash your windshield(sticke’m up), junkies holed up in train and subway stations, rounds fired randomly in broad daylight, boarded up storefronts…

      Just look what the did…. and for what.

  28. Is Mr Market in denial about the Fed’s Quantitative Tightening plans? Or has Mr Market decided that the Fed is bluffing again, like Lucy teeing up the football to pull it away just as Charlie Brown tries to kick it?

    Time will tell.

    1. Read a Bloomberg article a few days ago about Fed interventions that said “the bond market on many days is stable to the point of appearing comatose.”

      I disagree. It’s more “zombified” than “comatose.”

      1. Today’s dead tree edition of the Wall Street Journal shows a tome series chart of the Fed’s balance sheet since 2010 (early-stage Quantitative Easing omitted). It rocketed up from under $4 trillion to over $8 trillion since COVID-19 became a household discussion in the U.S. in March 2020. “Zombified” or “comatose” don’t seem to capture the recent changes In the Fed balance sheet.

        I’ll believe they are going to unwind this when I see it happen, not before.

    1. Those medallion owners are a lot like Zillow is, after buying homes all over the place at greatly inflated prices — sorry out of luck.

  30. https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/04/ed-durr-defeats-steve-sweeney-519502

    Durr, a truck driver for the furniture store Raymour & Flanigan, was declared the victor Thursday in a race against one of the most powerful people in New Jersey: State Senate President Steve Sweeney, a top officer in the international Ironworkers union whose influence rivals that of governors.

    Durr said he is an ardent supporter of the Second Amendment, declaring in a recent YouTube interview that difficulties getting a concealed carry permit motivated him to seek office. New Jersey has some of the most aggressive gun control laws in the nation.

    “What motivated me more than anything” to get into politics was not being able to get a concealed carry gun permit,” Durr said in the interview. “I still don’t consider myself a politician.”

    2. Suck it, Republicrat duopoly. You’ve betrayed us for decades – now finally the sheeple are starting to wake up and vote your sorry oligarch-owned asses out of office, which is long overdue.

    3. ‘Durr said he is an ardent supporter of the Second Amendment, declaring in a recent YouTube interview that difficulties getting a concealed carry permit motivated him to seek office. ‘

      Are any main street media news articles even highlighting that as the impetus why he ran?

      1. Not really, they seem to be homing in on that notion that he only spent $153 campaigning. Later they corrected to say he spent $153 on his primary campaign and $5000 on his general election campaign. Which is still peanuts.

        Joisey is more of a wake-up call than Virginia. The voters likely voted on R vs. D alone, not any kind of policy. That’s not good for D incumbents.

  31. Senators from Maine and Colorado echoed the observation while grilling Fauci and Walensky this morning. Colorado’s senator spun it as a pandemic of the unvaccinated however.

    https://twitter.com/justsee/status/1456215828345475081?s=20:

    1/ In a press conference on October 31st, 2021, Western Australia Premier Mark McGowan revealed the state’s hospital system is under extraordinary pressure.

    And they don’t know why.

    (The state has recorded 1,112 Covid cases in total since the beginning of the pandemic).

    1. So, the predicted long term adverse effects of the vaxxes are starting to happen?

      And they don’t know why.

      So another conspiracy theory is turning into conspiracy fact, but they can’t face the fact and they adopt the good old “no one could have seen it coming” position. I wonder what it’s going to be like in six months. Maybe we will be getting the “bring out yer dead” wagons after all

    1. Clown World gonna clown.

      This is what happens when civilizations DIE.

      The moral depravity of these globalists is incalculable.

      2. Biden is now talking about expanding the vaccine mandates to business of under 100 employees.
        Lets face it, they keep moving the goal posts.

          1. Just seeing stuff on Telegram suggesting Youngkin is controlled RINO opposition (e.g., Carlyle Group, World Economic Forum, Council on Foreign Relations).

  34. Tarara posted this after hearing it on talk radio.

    Woman killed in Henry Ruggs III car crash was heard screaming inside burning vehicle, per report

    Published: Nov. 04, 2021, 7:48 a.m.

    By Brian Fonseca | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com
    Tina Tintor, the 23-year-old woman identified as the person killed in a fiery crash when Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Henry Ruggs III rammed into her Toyota early Tuesday morning in Las Vegas, was heard screaming following the incident, according to a report from the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

    Alexander Hart, a security guard for a nearby condominium community, said he heard screams coming from the Toyota, per the report. He told police that the driver was still alive and he couldn’t pull her out of the vehicle because she was pinned inside.

    The car “was soon overcome with smoke and heat from flames,” and Hart had to back away, according to the report. Tintor was only a few blocks from her residence. Her dog, who was in the back seat, also died in the accident.

    Prosecutor Eric Bauman told Las Vegas Justice of the Peace Joe M. Bonaventure during Ruggs’ initial court hearing on Wednesday that air bag computer records showed that the Corvette decelerated from 156 mph to 127 mph before it slammed into Tintor’s Toyota RAV4, rupturing the vehicle’s fuel tank and igniting a fireball, per ESPN.

    https://www.nj.com/sports/2021/11/woman-killed-in-henry-ruggs-iii-car-crash-was-heard-screaming-inside-burning-vehicle-per-report.html

  35. Saw this article in the Atlantic. Sounds like another mask is coming off:

    We know how this ends: The coronavirus becomes endemic, and we live with it forever. But what we don’t know—and what the U.S. seems to have no coherent plan for—is how we are supposed to get there. We’ve avoided the hard questions whose answers will determine what life looks like in the next weeks, months, and years: How do we manage the transition to endemicity? When are restrictions lifted? And what long-term measures do we keep, if any, when we reach endemicity?

    The answers were simpler when we thought we could vaccinate our way to herd immunity. But vaccinations in the U.S. have plateaued. The Delta variant and waning immunity against transmission mean herd immunity may well be impossible even if every single American gets a shot. So when COVID-related restrictions came back with the Delta wave, we no longer had an obvious off-ramp to return to normal—are we still trying to get a certain percentage of people vaccinated? Or are we waiting until all kids are eligible? Or for hospitalizations to fall and stay steady? The path ahead is not just unclear; it’s nonexistent. We are meandering around the woods because we don’t know where to go.

    This is sounding like permanent face diapers and endless boosters, yet millions still get sick.

    Meanwhile, hospitals in areas where almost no one gets covid are bursting at the seams, chock full of people who are mysteriously sick. The Colorado governor signed an executive order giving the gooberment final say in who does or does not get treated in hospitals. This make me think that they know what’s coming: ADE and other problems.

    1. “We are meandering around the woods because we don’t know where to go.”

      In other words we are following Dr. Fauci and the science.

  36. Asia Markets
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index plunges nearly 2% as Chinese real estate shares fall
    Published Thu, Nov 4 2021 7:40 PM EDT
    Updated 11 Min Ago
    Eustance Huang
    Share
    Key Points
    — Asia-Pacific stocks were mixed on Friday trade.
    — Trading in Hong Kong-listed shares of Chinese property developer Kaisa Group and several of its units was suspended on Friday, according to exchange notices.
    — The S&P 500 sailed to yet another record closing high overnight on Wall Street with its sixth day of gains in a row.
    …
    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/05/asia-markets-sp-500-record-closing-high-currencies-oil.html

    2. “Fall foliage over Fairfield County – Connecticut Post”

      Reminds me of my military days back east. Thanks for that!

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