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Previous Investment Logic Has Collapsed

A report from the Colorado Sun. “The collapse of Zillow Offers can be traced, in one small part, to its over eagerness to invest in Colorado’s red-hot real estate market. The company bought hundreds of homes in the Front Range this summer, mostly in August and September, often paying more than what sellers were asking. Now the company, as it folds its ill-fated Zillow Offers business of flipping homes with a promise to investors to unload roughly 18,000 homes across the country, is selling more than 500 homes in 10 Front Range counties, and more homes it purchased in October are hitting the market every day.”

“Zillow is slashing prices for those homes. Nearly all the properties are priced well below what the company paid only a few months — or even weeks — ago.  If interest rates climb, Zillow might look pretty smart having shed thousands of for-sale homes from its portfolio. ‘Sure maybe Zillow lost money and maybe they made bad decisions, but did the company get out when the getting out was good?’ said Patrick Muldoon, whose brokerage works in both Colorado Springs and Pueblo. ‘We could be six months from now looking back and saying ‘Wow, did they see this coming?'”

From Housing Wire. “When Zillow waved the white flag on its iBuying operation earlier this month, CEO Rich Barton couched the company’s price forecasting model as something of a Frankenstein’s monster. But to Lee Kennedy, who for the last 16 years has run AVMetrics in Simi Valley, California, an evaluator of AVMs for client companies, what happened at Zillow is not surprising. What’s different about Zillow? ‘Most of my clients are large lending institutions and shy away from publicly admitting a mistake,’ Kennedy said.”

From Patch New York. “A year after an Upper West Side ZIP code had the largest increase in home prices of any in the United States, the same local ZIP code had the greatest decrease in home values in 2021. The median home sale price in the 10069 ZIP code dropped 39 percent in 2021. The median price in the area now sits at $1,663,000, which compares to the $2,725,000 it jumped to in 2020, according to Property Shark. ‘Notably, this ZIP code was actually the leader of price growth in 2020, when its median shot up 42 percent year-over-year,’ authors wrote.”

The Orlando Sentinel in Florida. “More sellers, real estate agent Hunter Albritton said, are willing to make deals they weren’t making during the run earlier this year. ‘People getting $50,000 and $100,000 beyond asking, we’re starting to see less of that,’ he said. ‘If homes are reasonably priced, they’re moving.'”

From News West 9 in Texas. “Heather Prichard, broker and owner of Ziglar Realty, said despite all the shortages happening nationwide, homes are not experiencing that same problem. ‘We have plenty of listings to choose from,’ said Prichard. ‘There are over 500 homes on the market on average right now. In the Odessa area, there are many homes to choose from.'”

The Enterprise Record in California. “Watch your step as you hopscotch around the excrement. Some of the thousands who sleep on San Francisco’s streets, the nation’s filthiest, are off their meds or on meth, or both, and are not always gentle. Also, Michael Shellenberger reports that between 2015 and 2018 the city replaced more than 300 lampposts ‘corroded by urine after one had collapsed and crushed a car.'”

From ABC News. “Australia, having shackled itself to China during the past 20 years, is already feeling the fallout. Since May, iron ore prices have slumped 60 per cent from then-record levels, as construction and infrastructure have tanked with prices for our most valuable export last week crashing below $US90 ($123) a tonne. It’s not just iron ore. Coal prices, which last month spiked to record levels, are in free-fall. Things are likely to get much worse before they get any better.”

“Both coal and iron ore prices now are in rapid descent as Beijing desperately fights economic battles on multiple fronts. Both commodities are paramount to Australia’s financial wellbeing. While the federal government has maintained uber-conservative price estimates for both exports — pencilling in iron ore at just $US55 ($75) a tonne — the opportunity to pass off windfall gains as ‘sound economic management’ will be dulled as it heads into an election year.”

“More importantly, from a strategic standpoint, the events of the past two years have highlighted the dangers of being a one-trick export pony exclusively hitched to just one wagon.”

Smart Property Investment. “Peter White AM, the managing director of Finance Brokers Association of Australia (FBAA), shared some insight into how the industry expects APRA’s mortgage crackdown to play out in Australia’s housing market, warning, ‘there is going to be a collateral impact somewhere.’ One of those effects, he said, amounted to borrowers essentially becoming ‘mortgage prisoners’ in their home loans.”

“This occurs when rates move around, and property owners seek to refinance in order to get a better deal, only to discover, ‘you can’t move your loan because you don’t meet the new servicing floor rates,’ Mr White explained. ‘And financially, you’re probably paying more than what you were before.'”

“It’s a catch-22 that leaves people paying more for a financial product than they might need to, but with no exit. ‘We’ve got to watch this mortgage prisoner game. We’ve got to watch what happens with the first home buyer market and also the refinance market,’ Mr White said, urging industry leaders and regulators alike to monitor the situation closely. ‘It’s one of those things that it’s a delicate step, and one that can have unintended consequences and landmines pop up that wasn’t the intent of what was trying to be done.'”

From Reuters. “Chinese investors are abandoning an age-old attachment to property investment products and seeking returns in equities and other corners of the capital markets, as the authorities crack down on the debt-fuelled property sector. ‘Previous investment logic has collapsed,’ said Shanghai businessman Desmond Pan.”

The South China Morning Post. “Raymond Cheng, head of China and Hong Kong research at CGS-CIMB Securities, said developers have had to cut prices by 10 to 15 per cent as the market reels from a liquidity crunch sparked by China Evergrande’s debt crisis. ‘The worst for the property market is yet to come,’ he added.”

“Monday’s data gives a misleading picture of the actual scale of the slump in house buying, according to Andy Lee Yiu-chi, chief executive for southern China at Centaline Property Agency. ‘The government data is lagging behind the market. New home prices in major cities have fallen by up to 15 per cent from the peak early this year,’ he said.”

“In Shenzhen, the number of transactions in the primary residential market was down 75 per cent from early in the year to 2,000 in October. In Guangzhou the number of deals fell 50 per cent to 7,000, said Lee. ‘Home prices have not bottomed out. Buyers are staying on the sidelines, wary that builders may fail to deliver their homes on schedule,’ he said.”

This Post Has 105 Comments
  1. ‘We could be six months from now looking back and saying ‘Wow, did they see this coming?’

    That includes you, UHS Pat. Why would they be taking a half billion a$$ pounding if they thought it might turn around?

    This CO article is worth reading in full.

    1. The Colorado Front Range real estate market is such a joke.

      Fortunately, as a renter, I have so much money left after “throwing money away on rent” every month that I don’t know where to throw it.

      P.S. I am officially a property owner now, in rural Southern Colorado.

      1. Congrats on the land purchase! I guess it’s raw land? I hope it at least has well water.

        I thought you were planning to move back east to pursue more electrical work? But it’s always good to own some hard assets.

        1. Hyperinflation is happening. I could loose everything (i.e. alleged assets denominated in U.S. Dollars) in another fake, forced crash, but they could never evict me from the land…

      2. Fortunately, as a renter, I have so much money left after “throwing money away on rent” every month that I don’t know where to throw it.

        I just recently scored a new rental house for 1/3 of the market rate. They’re out there. I am paying less than the price of a one bedroom apartment for a custom house on 5 acres. The owners just wanted somebody responsible and trustworthy. They didn’t care about the money.

      3. P.S. I am officially a property owner now, in rural Southern Colorado.

        Wish I could say the same but unfortunately I have to sit this one out until prices correct. I was looking at a 2.5 acre parcel up the road and they want $185,000. By the time I put in the required well and septic system, and paid for power to it, I’d be into it for $250,000. Then the real fees start with the county (feasibility, impacts, etc.). I’d have to build a house worth $750,000 to justify that nonsense. Think I’ll wait until that land drops down to under $50,000.

    2. “If you bring a property to the market that is simply priced too high, the market tends to ignore it.” Which is what is happening to Zillow as the company steadily decreases asking prices for hundreds of homes it overpaid for across the Front Range.

      You just know the neighbors who also paid over-asking for their house are losing sleep over Zillow’s dutch auction. Same goes for the assessor’s office too.

      1. Same goes for the assessor’s office too.

        TABOR really complicates things for your friendly neighborhood assessor. Your property tax won’t go up as fast as the assessment. But it can go down.

  2. ‘the events of the past two years have highlighted the dangers of being a one-trick export pony exclusively hitched to just one wagon’

    I’ve asked this for years. Why do we allow them to exchange into our currency, when they print pesos by the warehouse full? Sidling up to the bumbling commies was a huge mistake, on every level.

    ‘paying more for a financial product than they might need to, but with no exit. ‘We’ve got to watch this mortgage prisoner game’

    That doesn’t sound good…

    1. ‘We’ve got to watch this mortgage prisoner game’

      It’s deja vu all over again.

      Try not to get stucco.

      1. “…mortgage prisoner game…”

        Time for some fun factoids:

        Google: average worker lifetime income

        Answer: $1.7 million

        Overall, the median lifetime earnings for all workers are $1.7 million, which is just under $42,000 per year ($20 per hour). Over a 40-year career, those who didn’t earn a high school diploma or GED are expected to bring in less than $1 million, which translates into slightly more than $24,000 a year ($11.70 per hour).

        So if an average workers **total gross lifetime income** is just $1.7mm, how could such worker afford a $2mm crap shack?

        Even Mr. Banker has only so many rabbits he can pull out of his hat.

        1. how could such worker afford a $2mm crap shack?

          1. Multiple income earners in the house: hubby, wifey, grandma and her SS check, renters in your illegal basement apartment.
          2. Infusion from Baby Boomer parents, which won’t happen with future generations.
          3. The $11/hr crowd isn’t buying the $2M crap shack. They are buying the $250K house in Atlanta.
          4. Home ownership is historically ~65-70%. The lower incomes aren’t buying, and they never have. They are the ones renting that illegal apartment.
          5. Nobody plans to pay anything off.

          1. Nobody plans to pay anything off.

            I recently saw a comment from a young debt-junkie Millennial or Gen Z person that they were borrowing for every expensive thing they could (car, etc.) because they were not going to have to actually pay it off. Apparently they believed it would ultimately be given to them. WOW.

          2. Apparently they believed it would ultimately be given to them.

            This is more prevalent than you’d think. Ultimately, they will be proven correct.

  3. ‘Previous investment logic has collapsed’

    So he’s going into a “product” that promises a 19% return.

  4. “‘Most of my clients are large lending institutions and shy away from publicly admitting a mistake,’”

    Broke, desperate, weak-willed people never admit they’re…… broke and desperate. That’s why they’re deep in mortgage debt in to begin with.

    Orlando, FL Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY As Crushing Mortgage Debt Ravages Florida Economy

    https://www.movoto.com/fl/32804/market-trends/

    1. Keep dropping, dramatically. All those new black BMW’s are subject to repossession too. CAN’t begin to describe the criminal fraud, incompetence and arrogance we encountered in Florida. My ex husband who has purchased/had built custom homes in CT, CA, VA said FL is theeeee worst.

        1. Florida is probably fine politically, but it’s always been a cesspool of real estate shenanigans, starting with selling that swampland.

  5. “If interest rates climb, Zillow might look pretty smart having shed thousands of for-sale homes from its portfolio.”

    Sure…so long as we conveniently forget that they overshot market value by a wide margin on thousands of recently purchased homes that they are now desperately trying to dump en masse.

    If Zillow’s intent was to crash the housing market, I’m not sure how they could have done it better.

    1. PS is it safe to assume the Fed will take whatever measures are needed to keep rates low forever?

      Or might consumer ptice inflation running at 6%+, well above their target, force them into action to raise rates some time soon?

      1. don forget credit card rates will rise too, thanks to Ohbahma giving the companies a 18 month head start to switch over from fixed rate cards to variable rates.

      2. The Financial Times
        Central banks
        Investors lulled into ‘dreamland’ by central banks, warns Bill Gross
        Pimco founder says stimulus and low interest rates have created ‘dangerous’ situation
        Bill Gross
        Bill Gross’s comments on financial exuberance echo a call from Christian Sewing, Deutsche Bank chief executive, who said on Monday that central banks should tighten monetary policy
        © Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg
        Robin Wigglesworth yesterday

        Investors are living in a “dreamland” brought on by global central banks’ decision to continue pumping up the world economy even as it has rebounded sharply from the pandemic, Bill Gross has said.

        Historically low interest rates and mammoth bond-buying programmes, which are only now being cautiously scaled back, have nurtured a widespread bout of financial euphoria in everything from stocks to digital assets such as “non-fungible tokens”, the founder of bond investment group Pimco told the Financial Times in an interview.

        “It’s dangerous,” Gross warned of accommodative central bank policy. “It’s all dreamland that’s been supported by interest rates that aren’t where they should be.”

        The US inflation rate, which was already running hotter than the Federal Reserve had been expecting, accelerated to a three-decade high of 6.2 per cent in October. Price growth is also running well ahead of target in other global economies, including the UK. That has exacerbated concerns that central banks will need to act sooner and more aggressively than previously indicated.

        Gross’s comments on financial exuberance echo a call from Christian Sewing, Deutsche Bank chief executive, who said on Monday that central banks should tighten monetary policy to provide “countermeasures” against surging inflation.

        1. “It’s dangerous,” Gross warned of accommodative central bank policy. “It’s all dreamland that’s been supported by interest rates that aren’t where they should be.”

          I remember Bill Gross calling on the fed to “build a floor under house prices.” More than likely PIMCO was holding a bag chock-full of MBS at the time.

          1. “…It’s all dreamland that’s been supported by interest rates that aren’t where they should be.”…”

            Interesting that statements like this are never backed up with specifics.

          2. He’s long gone from Pimco. But yes, I believe Gross has exhibited a tendency over time to talk his book.

  6. ‘this ZIP code was actually the leader of price growth in 2020, when its median shot up 42 percent year-over-year’

    Hurray!

    ‘The median home sale price in the 10069 ZIP code dropped 39 percent in 2021’

    Oh fudge.

    1. And it ain’t just some obscure bullsh!it zip code in midtown either. The entire borough of the Bronx is down 20%…. and falling. Upstate NY? Falling like realtors thrown from helicopters. Massachussetts, Maine and New Hampshire? Dropping like a rock.

      Bronx, NY Housing Prices Crater 20% YOY As Seized Up New York Economy Ravages Neighboring States

      https://www.movoto.com/bronx-ny/market-trends/

      1. My cousin sold her house in Katonah and moved to her summer house in Bridgehampton. For sale signs everywhere in 11976. Asked her what’s up and she said a lot of owners were burned by renters during the moratorium, and they want out. I had to laugh, rich people screwing over other rich people.

        1. Some of the sleaziest people I’ve known are rich. They’ll stiff anybody at any time because they think they can.

  7. ‘What’s different about Zillow? ‘Most of my clients are large lending institutions and shy away from publicly admitting a mistake’

    There’s yer fraud.

  8. Any thoughts on whether U.S. policy makers may soon realize the huge economic toll which over reliance on property has taken on our society, and put an end to it?

    1. China’s property crackdown sinks economic growth to 90s levels
      China’s economy is slowing to 1990s levels amid a crackdown on the property market
      [FILE: Martin Pollard/Reuters]
      By Tom Hancock and Enda Curran
      Bloomberg
      Published On 16 Nov 2021

      China’s economy is slowing to the lows seen way back in 1990 — a price President Xi Jinping seems willing to pay to reduce its dependence on the property sector.

      Beijing’s squeeze on the real estate sector will linger into next year and beyond, a development many hadn’t seen coming that has now prompted banks like Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Nomura Holdings Inc. and Barclays Plc to cut their growth forecasts in 2022 to below 5%.

  9. The Comrades of Proven Worth (D) in our NEA indoctrination mills are going to keep pushing globalist-authored brainwashing on kids. It’s what they do.

    ‘It’s a Trojan horse for CRT’: Now furious parents push back against Social Emotional Learning (SEL) being taught in schools, claiming its promotion of ‘diversity’ is more evidence of government indoctrination

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10206207/Youre-actually-advertising-suicide-Parents-push-against-Social-Emotional-Learning-school.html

    A new front in the educational culture wars has broken out, as parents hit out at schools teaching Social Emotional Learning (SEL) which they fear is becoming a Trojan horse for CRT.

    Supporters of SEL say that it is an essential tool for the development of young people – National University describes it as ‘a methodology that helps students of all ages to better comprehend their emotions, to feel those emotions fully, and demonstrate empathy for others.’

  10. Also, Michael Shellenberger reports that between 2015 and 2018 the city replaced more than 300 lampposts ‘corroded by urine after one had collapsed and crushed a car.’”

    If God doesn’t rain down fire & brimstone on SF and its deviant libtards, he owes Sodom & Gomorrah an apology.

    1. So, the CDC, WHO, FDA, NIH, gets to ignore the VARES reporting , and countless testimony sent to these Agencies by Drs and Lawyers , about death and vaccine injury that keeps mounting.
      What these Agencies are saying is they don’t acknowledge any credible reporting Agency to dispute their SAFE and EFFECTIVE Narrative on the injection expierment.
      That the short term trial on the vaccines, absent the animal tests, that animal tests showed failure on prior tests , with no long term testing , is proof of Safe And Effective injections, and just ignore VARES data. Big Pharmacy also destroyed the test group unvaccinated by vaccination of them , so no longer term comparison by vaccinated verses unvaccinated could be made. Talk about rigged trials.
      So, in spite of overwhelming evidence of failure, injury and death from the no liability product makers junk expierment, you now have to take a booster, more of the same failure expierment .
      I don’t think the public expected that the new definition of vaccine is you can transmit and get the disease after getting vaccination, and you would have to get booster shot after booster shot pursuant their dictates.
      No disclosure on original jabs that you can’t stop taking the jabs , and be under a Police State of enforcement .
      This is a takeover to put people under a controlled dictorship of surveillance by Medical Tyranny, and every other possible means to take freedoms and Constitutional protections , for a One World Order Dictorship by Global Monopolies. A pre planned take over of US and other Countries, starting with a rigged election to put the Puppets for the take over in.
      You can never go back to normal again, in spite of populations historically going back to normal after Pandemics, usually lasting for about 18 months.
      What is it about censorship of news, facts, dispute that isn’t a taking of the first amendment by FAKE Media Monopoly. What is it about disinformation and defrauding the Public .
      What Government Agency is in charge of stopping Big Pharmacy corruption of Government Protection agencies, like CDC, FDA,NIH, WHO.
      The guy who helped create the bio weapon with a Foreign Rival China, and he is the Authority Figure for the Narrative , with his protocols and recommendations, killing thousands , maybe millions, being Dr Fauci. And the suppression of cheap drugs that are highly effective against Covid is criminal.
      Bribery of Hospitals, along with extortion or threat of loss of career to Medical system , if they don’t comply with the Fauci protocols.
      All the Monopolies prospered by the lockdowns , while small business was destroyed, Citizens improvished, and junk vaccines injured and killed a unacceptable amount of victims so far,
      over this fraudulent public heath program.
      These fraudsters are now saying children are super spreaders , going after children who were never at risk with the Covid .
      So, if no Government Agency or branch is going to stop this assault on Citizens, than the Citizens have to stop it because the Government is no longer legitimate, and acts on behalf of a criminal Innsurrection.

      1. You can never go back to normal again, in spite of populations historically going back to normal after Pandemics, usually lasting for about 18 months.

        As I have said before, they will NEVER give the all clear. NEVER.

        Unless the people push back and hard, it will be face diapers and near mandatory jabs from here on out.

        1. Washington DC is about to lift its mask mandates for indoor venues (with exceptions). Just over the border, Montgomery County MD is about to reinstate its indoor mask mandate. Not sure about Prince George’s County, which also borders DC. Eventually, EVERYBODY (including the vaxxed) will be exposed to Delta, have symptoms or not, and develop natural Delta immunity.

          The only question is how long they want to drag this out. I’m all for ripping off the band-aid and getting it over with. Maskless holiday meals will help.

          1. Forever, or as long as they can.

            “Forever” – that’s just NOT HAPPENING. I see more people than not just ignoring the signs about masks and going into any business at will. The businesses don’t care – they want the money. People are done with this nonsense.

          2. That’s not recognized as a thing.

            Correct. I was told to get jabbed after I recovered from the coof, as if my new natural immunity didn’t exist.

          3. “That’s not recognized as a thing.”

            I agree it’s not recognized as a thing, but nonetheless it is a thing. Eventually, even the vaxxed will end up with natural Delta coof immunity and herd immunity will drive cases down, no matter what fear-mongering tactics they try.

          4. “The businesses don’t care – they want the money. People are done with this nonsense.”

            Roughly 25% of the shoppers in our Walmart are mask-free these days, but not me. I see runny noses being wiped with bare hands that are touching the check-out equipment, so I’m carrying a small bottle of Germ-X too.

    2. A former co-worker telephoned last evening to report that another former co-worker at one of our power plants passed away from covid-19 complications despite being fully vaccinated. He was however a lifelong user of cigarettes.

      1. Poor guy should have gotten that 7th jab, man. That 6th one just wasn’t quite enough. Did they try jabbing him again at the end? Maybe an 8th or 9th would have worked? How about an IV full of jab juice? Have they tried that?

        1. He was a skilled and conscientious craftsman, machinist and welder among other things. He went soft when he retired and likely increased his tobacco use with his hands idled. He was also a Marine Corps veteran.

    1. And the Prosecution in summary said the fact that Rittenhouse bought the gun is proof that he is guilty of It degree murder, and that defeats a self defense plea.
      So, according to the Prosecution a person who buy a gun is automatically guilty, and no self defense is allowable, in spite of it being a allowable defense under the law.
      So, the Prosecution is saying that if you own a gun, you automatically guilty, if you have to defend yourself.
      So, its obvious that this Trial was to be a form of attack on the 2nd amendment to make defense of yourself not allowed. So, criminals can attack you, Government can attack you , and your automatically guilty. So they don’t have to take the guns , just render then not useable.
      So, like all the ways the law is being twisted to take the rights of Citizens , as well with the vaccine mandates, its just how to bring on a enslaved population under a tyranny.
      Hope the jury aquits, as they should, and the rioters are arrested if they burn and loot as they should be.

        1. Oh, but see, when you’re a Democrat, that’s metaphorical. If you’re a Republican President, you can’t even use the word “fight” in any context without being impeached. 🙄

    2. Awesome when the prosecution was caught totally off-guard by the judge when asked if a 17-yr/old can legally carry a long-barreled rifle in Wisconsin. Poof, out goes that charge!

      It’s clear the prosecution isn’t interested in facts.

  11. ** ” . . in Texas. “Heather Prichard, broker and owner of Ziglar Realty, said despite all the shortages happening nationwide, homes are not experiencing that same problem. ‘We have plenty of listings to choose from,’ said Prichard. ‘There are over 500 homes on the market on average right now. In the Odessa area, there are many homes to choose from.’”

    what.the.hell!? a UHS person actually sez out LOUD that there are p p pplenty of listings without any catchprase-jargon-filled buy-now-or-else hysterical word play !?!?! oh Heather. poor, dear sweet Heather.

    “It will happen this way. You may be walking. Maybe the first sunny day of the spring. And a car will slow beside you, and a door will open, and someone you know, maybe even trust, will get out of the car.”

    3 Days of the Condor

  12. Surprise! Surprise! Surprise!

    “Retirement Fund Giant Calpers Votes to Use Leverage, More Alternative Assets”

    Oh my, (you say) and just why is that?

    “U.S. pensions are hundreds of billions of dollars short of what they expect to need to pay public worker retirement benefits”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/retirement-fund-giant-calpers-votes-to-use-leverage-more-alternative-assets-11637032461?mod=rss_markets_main

    (This article is from the WSJ which means you must be a subscriber to read it.)

      1. I’d bet it is. They really need the yield and they don’t care how they get it. However, there’s no jump in the bitcoin price, not yet anyway.

        1. “…They really need the yield and they don’t care how they get it…”

          We readers at the HBB are here to help.

          A friend of mind has a excellent photo of a half-eaten Saltine cracker left on a table by Elvis during a stage show in Las Vegas, circa 1965.

          I would be willing to create a NFT of photo.

          What am I bid Calpers? $1mm, $2mm, 3mm+ ?

          I mean, how many photos of a half-eaten by Elvis Saltine crackers are there? Cmon’ get in before they run out of cracker photos. Don’t miss the bus. We are talking a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

    1. “Retirement Fund Giant Calpers Votes to Use Leverage, More Alternative Assets”

      At the top of the most overbloated bubble market in history, and they need even bigger returns? SHE’S GONNA BLOW!

  13. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac to Back Home Loans of Nearly $1 Million as Prices Soar – WSJ
    https://imgur.com/a/7ifwGbP
    “Shrinking the government’s role in the mortgage market will only hurt first-time and low- and moderate-income home buyers,” said Dave Walsh, president of the California Association of Realtors.

  14. Meanwhile, back in QE land, Rivian, a company that has yet to sell a single electric vehicle, has a market cap of $140B.

      1. Somewhere there’s a company whose prospectus is “an undertaking of great advantage, but no one to know what it is” with oblivious VCs fighting like hyenas over it.

  15. I’m starting to go all Andy Rooney (old time 60 Minutes curmudgeon) here, but I’m so sick of being bs’d – “this is for your own good” re: covid, telemarketers who start with “this is a courtesy call” and now this email regarding our property manager’s new portal:

    Avoid the convenience fee!
    Avoid the convenience fee when you pay rent- use a digital check instead! As a reminder, when you pay with a credit or debit card, the website charges a 3% convenience fee. This adds up! Instead, use your bank account to pay your rent and utilities for as little as $2.00.
    Heres how:
    Find the routing and account number on the bottom of your check or on your bank statement.
    Input this information into the payment portal on the website.
    Make your online payment!

    None of this is for our convenience. I can tell the PM wrote this herself. She’s new; I kind of liked her, too bad.

    1. Instead, use your bank account to pay your rent and utilities for as little as $2.00.

      What? You have to pay $2.00 for a digital check? In that case, I would write a good old fashioned paper check, and they can have the convenience of processing it themselves.

      1. At my final apartment complex, they removed the rent-check drop box and required rent checks to be dropped off physically inside the office. The office conveniently closed at 5 pm. It was clearly a ploy to force us into opting in to their new electronic pay. Which I did. Later, when I checked my credit report, I found that my credit score had been dinged because I suddenly had opened a new credit installment account, on which I owed 12 months’ worth of rent. Which was not a small sum. One of the many reasons to buy a house and tell the LL to get bent. Yeah, now I have a lot more mortgage debt, but at least FICO looks upon it more kindly.

      2. Husband told her we’d continue to send her a check like before. The fee is irritating, but it’s more the “we’re doing this for you” peeing on your leg crap that’s really annoying. If we had no self-respect, we could pull the “I’m old and I don’t know how” stuff on her, but we decided to stick it in her mail box.

        1. It’s common to charge a $2-3 fee to pay online or by phone. In one instance, I was traveling for weeks and didn’t get home in time to write out the bill and mail it (at the time I didn’t have autopay set up). And last winter, the Post Office had a mail backlog and I didn’t get my electric bill in time so I paid online.

          Both times had the small fee, which I did not mind paying because they were one-time events. However, any company who knows that recurring payments are coming in should have a free auto-pay set up. Or at the very least, cover the cost of the fee.

          1. Right, I have several auto-pays out of my checking account. Never a charge.
            We’ve been in this rental now for years. I had finally settled into a nice relationship with the PM and sadly, his cancer returned. Must be bad, his daughter has taken over hence the new-fangled 😉 ways. The LL is pathologically cheap (confirmed by the father, handyman and an unpleasant meeting I had with her myself.) Ordinarily if someone spoke down to me like she did, they wouldn’t live long but our lease doesn’t go into effect until Jan. 1. Not a good idea in general to fight with your LL, so unpleasant. What is it with these people who talk to you like a serf just because you rent their crappy shack?

  16. Does it seem like central bankers are willingly allowing inflation to run well above target levels, in order to shield risk asset gamblers from the risk of loss?

    1. The Financial Times
      European Central Bank
      ECB warns of ‘exuberance’ in housing, junk bonds and crypto assets
      Investors taking risks in search for yield has left markets ‘susceptible to correction’
      ECB headquarters
      The European Central Bank’s twice-yearly financial stability review says markets are vulnerable to higher-than-expected inflation and rising interest rates
      © REUTERS
      Martin Arnold in Frankfurt
      5 hours ago

      Increased “exuberance” in housing markets, junk bonds and crypto assets have created vulnerabilities that will be exposed if higher than expected inflation leads to a sharp rise in interest rates, the European Central Bank has warned.

      This year’s rebound in the eurozone economy from the coronavirus pandemic has reduced short-term risks to the financial system, but it has also led to a build-up of longer term risks, the ECB said on Wednesday in its twice-yearly financial stability review.

      “Concerns particularly relate to pockets of exuberance in credit, asset and housing markets as well as higher debt levels in the corporate and public sectors,” the ECB said.

      Rising inflation and falling real interest rates have prompted investors to take greater risks in their search for yield, which has left parts of the property, debt and crypto asset markets “increasingly susceptible to corrections”, it warned.

      “A correction in markets could be triggered by a weaker than expected economic recovery, spillovers from adverse developments in emerging market economies, a re-intensification of stress in the non-financial corporate sector or abrupt adjustments in market expectations regarding the prospective path of monetary policy normalisation,” it said.

      Eurozone inflation rose to a 13-year high of 4.1 per cent in October, well above the ECB’s 2 per cent target. The central bank, however, has predicted inflation will fall back below its target in the next few years and said it did not expect to raise rates next year.

      But it noted on Wednesday there was “a risk that recent strains in global supply chains and the spike in energy prices could have longer-lasting effects on inflation than expected”.

    2. The Financial Times
      Federal Reserve
      Fed warns ailing China real estate sector poses risks to US economy
      Central bank is also monitoring volatility in meme stocks, it says in semi-annual report
      Unfinished buildings at a China Evergrande development on the outskirts of Nanjing
      Unfinished buildings at a China Evergrande development on the outskirts of Nanjing. The Federal Reserve on Monday warned of the risk posed to the US financial system by China’s highly indebted property sector
      © Bloomberg
      Gary Silverman in New York and Colby Smith in Washington November 8 2021

      The Federal Reserve warned on Monday that stresses in the Chinese real estate sector “posed some risk to the US financial system”, pointing to heavily indebted property companies such as Evergrande as a potential source of global contagion.

      “Given the size of China’s economy and financial system as well as its extensive trade linkages with the rest of the world, financial stresses in China could strain global financial markets through a deterioration of risk sentiment, pose risks to global economic growth, and affect the United States,” the Fed warned in its semi-annual Financial Stability Report.

      On the domestic front, the Fed also warned that a “steep rise” in interest rates could lead to a “large” correction in risky assets, in addition to a reduction in housing demand that in turn could lead to lower home prices. Employment and investments could take a hit too as borrowing costs for business rose.

      1. “…could strain global financial markets through a deterioration of risk sentiment…”

        It’s going to be loads of fun getting millions of Quantitative Easing heroin addicts into treatment!

  17. Cryptocurrency warning: Bank of England fears risk to ‘financial stability’
    THE risks to global financial stability from cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin is “getting closer” according to one of the Bank of England’s rate-setters.
    By Tom Hill
    14:21, Mon, Nov 15, 2021 | UPDATED: 15:13, Mon, Nov 15, 2021

    Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme Sir Jon Cunliffe, the Bank’s Deputy Governor for Financial Stability said while cryptocurrencies weren’t currently a risk they are “growing very fast” and becoming more integrated into traditional financial systems. He added: “So the point at which they pose a risk is getting closer. I think regulators and legislators need to think very hard about that.” Sir Jon previously discussed the potential risks to financial stability from cryptocurrencies at a speech in October in which he said regulation needed to be looked at as a “matter of urgency”.

    1. Since when is a health policy of forced jabs, lock downs, masks etc established, based on a fraction of people at risk based on comorbibities, age , unhealthy life styles , vitamin D levels , etc.

      So the majority who is not at risk of a air borne virus has to give up all Constitutional freedoms for a minority of people vulnerable to respiratory disease.
      When did the Constitution get suspended for a declared Emergency , that isn’t a threat to the 99.5% of population.
      Did the Founders of this Government say Constitution is suspended for minority who is vulnerable to a flu. Especially when early on the medical system discovered cheap safe drugs that treated the vulnerable with this Covid.
      And a dictator like Fauci , who funded creation of the virus , gets to dictate protocol, with fraud news monopoly censoring any Narrative that disputes a vaccine in every arm dictate.
      Government can destroy your small business, lock you down in house prison , make you wear a useless mask that obstructs your breathing, and this emergency gives a dictorship by a product maker called Big Pharmacy conducting.
      new technology injection expierments.
      And than when the evidence becomes clear that the jabs aren’t safe and effective, and unacceptable injury and death is evident, Big Pharmacy with Government get to dictate you take boosters of the same failure. All the while censorship of dispute to vaccines by a collusion by Media Monopoly fraud deceives the public into submission.
      And for the so called emergency to morph into a long term you can never be normal again and you are subjected to Big Pharmacy jab dictates, lockdowns , masks, etc. , because some fraction of the population is vulnerable to respiratory threat.
      That like saying that your not allowed pursuit of happiness , freedoms and constitutional protection , because a small fraction of population is vulnerable to disease.
      And the only good part of this Pandemic is that they discovered parasite cheap drugs repurposed were highly effective in treating respiratory afflictions and flu like Covid. But no, you are mandated to take a gene altering injection by Big Pharmacy.
      We are to contort our entire Society and harm the majority , for the needs or dictorship of the few.
      So because there was a higher population of whites that populated America in early days, that means that now whites should be discriminated against because whites had a higher population than other groups. As long as all races get the same constitutional protections .
      So, is it fair to say that any values Whites have shall be usurped by any minority that wants to dictate.
      So, border invasion and illegal migration is justified by screaming racism. You can’t have border laws because your racist, and there is no other reason why you wouldn’t like non vetted open borders.

      So, the quest to eliminate the White race , or impoverish them or discriminate against them , is the new weapon of mass destruction Constitution attack by a group of Globalists Monopolies, mostly run by White Elites, who want to take over the free World. In truth this Innsurrection by Global Monopolies , Money Changers, Elites etc. constitute a very small group wanting total control over the 99.75%.
      So the fraudulent narratives get more insane by the minute, as these Entities that corrupted governments and systems go for take over of US.
      And what they plan on doing was never voted for by the majority , and they criminally rigged election to force their agendas.
      Just the way they talk about populations shows their hate and lack of regard for humans.

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