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Almost Every One I’ve looked At, They’ve Dropped Their Price

A report from the Seattle Times in Washington. “The cool-down in the King County real-estate market has now reached six months, and the drop in home prices over that span is among the largest on record. King County’s median single-family home price fell to $644,000 in November, all the way down from $726,000 in the spring, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Prices are also falling faster here than anywhere else in the country.”

“The price drop equals 11.3 percent over six months, more than any May-to-November stretch in recorded history for King County. The biggest six-month decline for any time of year happened after the housing bubble popped last decade and prices plunged 14 percent. When the dot-com bubble burst, prices never dropped more than 6 percent in six months.”

“Even going back a full year, prices dropped in several Seattle neighborhoods in November, including Southeast Seattle, Sodo/Beacon Hill, the Capitol Hill/Central Seattle area, Queen Anne/Magnolia, the Ballard/Green Lake area and downtown.”

“Buyers are seeing far more homes to choose from. Countywide, the number of houses on the market jumped 114 percent year-over-year, easily the largest gain on record dating back to 2000 – led by a whopping 177 percent increase in the city of Seattle. The last three months have now featured the three biggest increases in inventory in history. The trend is entirely attributable to more homes sitting on the market unsold, as opposed to more people putting homes up for sale.”

“For condos, inventory more than tripled in the past year, while prices are down $61,000 from the spring.”

“Sales also continued to plummet, down 19 percent in the past year. It was the seventh straight month that fewer people bought homes. Even mortgage interest rates, which had been on a steady climb for much of the year, have fallen back down recently. ‘It’s a little bit of a herd mentality,’ said Sabrina Booth, a Windermere broker in Seattle.”

“Before, buyers were rushing to outdo each other by engaging in frantic bidding wars and signing away rights like inspection clauses; now, they’re collectively taking their time, negotiating prices down and getting sellers to pay for fixes to their homes.”

“Stelina Simpson recalls selling her Ballard home three years ago with five offers all above list price, including one all-cash, a few days after it went on the market, and then dealing with the same frenzy when she turned around and bought a house in West Seattle. Recently she’s begun looking for a trade-up home and has had a completely different experience.”

”(Years ago), I was making offers on houses within the same day it came on the market, and you had several people bidding against you,’ Simpson said. ‘Now I don’t feel like any of that is really happening. Almost every one I’ve looked at, they’ve dropped their price if it’s been on the market more than 30 days.'”

“Among the places where prices dropped on a year-over-year basis in November: East Bellevue, the Eastside area south of Interstate 90, Richmond Beach-Shoreline, Jovita-West Hill Auburn and Renton-Highlands & Kennydale.”

“Looking since the peak spring period, prices have fallen more than $100,000 in the Capitol Hill/Central Seattle area, Queen Anne/Magnolia, Richmond Beach-Shoreline, the Eastside south of I-90, East Bellevue and Redmond-Carnation.”

“The median price of a home hit $760,000 in Seattle and $885,000 on the Eastside, both down about $70,000 to $75,000 from their spring highs. In absolute terms, the $82,000 price drop in King County over the last six months is easily the most ever for any half-year span, a function of how high prices have gotten. Compared to just a month ago, prices decreased $27,000.”

“The cool-down is also starting to spread to the rest of the Puget Sound region — inventory is up and sales are down by double digits in all four local counties.”

“Snohomish County’s home costs have dipped from $511,000 in the spring to $470,000 now. Looking back a full year, prices were still up 5.6 percent, while inventory has surged 88 percent. In Kitsap County, the median home sold for $330,000, up 6.5 percent in a year but down $34,000 from its spring record.”

This Post Has 85 Comments
  1. ‘since the peak spring period, prices have fallen more than $100,000 in the Capitol Hill/Central Seattle area, Queen Anne/Magnolia, Richmond Beach-Shoreline, the Eastside south of I-90, East Bellevue and Redmond-Carnation’

    What happened to the Redmond poster?

    1. “What happened to the Redmond poster?”

      Last seen dumping $40k of home cheapo materials into a falling down $10k garage.

    2. “Looking since the peak spring period, prices have fallen more than $100,000 in the Capitol Hill/Central Seattle area, Queen Anne/Magnolia, Richmond Beach-Shoreline, the Eastside south of I-90, East Bellevue and Redmond-Carnation.”

      Wow… I imagine that radical feminist councilwoman, Kshama Sawant, must have her panties in a knot. Lower prices means less tax money for women shelters and services.

    3. “”King County’s median single-family home price fell to $644,000 in November, all the way down from $726,000 in the spring, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Prices are also falling faster here than anywhere else in the country.”

      “The price drop equals 11.3 percent over six months, more than any May-to-November stretch in recorded history for King County.””

      That’s an epic crash. A 22%+ drop on an annual basis absolutely destroys a housing market.

      Calling redmondjp!!

  2. ‘Countywide, the number of houses on the market jumped 114 percent year-over-year, easily the largest gain on record dating back to 2000 – led by a whopping 177 percent increase in the city of Seattle. The last three months have now featured the three biggest increases in inventory in history’

    But, shortage?

      1. Sounds like the speculators who failed to time the market…and now find themselves unable to exit at the price point they expected.

    1. ‘Countywide, the number of houses on the market jumped 114 percent year-over-year, easily the largest gain on record dating back to 2000…’

      It’s hard to believe they keep records back that far!

  3. I’m a younger reader — was there one city that crashed first the last time around? And then the rest followed suit? If so how where did it spread to? How long did the whole thing take?

    I’m just fascinated by the degree to which things seem to be repeating themselves. You can’t make this stuff up.

    Looking for some insight from those who have been here before.

    Thanks

    1. I wonder if the story ” the rise and fall of taco bell Jeff” is still on the net ? coral gables FL ? he got smoked there right at the beginning of the crash

    2. I’m not sure anyone can isolate which city or town cratered first. For one thing, with few exceptions, the media was complicit with the REIC in either downplaying or not reporting on the leading indicators of a bursting housing bubble. When actual cratering started occurring, it played out like the Shakespeare line: “When troubles come, they come not as single spies but as battalions” (or words to that effect). And of course the HBB posters were observing and commenting on what was happening in their neck of the woods, and it clearly depicted a spreading Eee-bola that belied the “all is well!” spin from the NAR and its media touts and shills. As I recall, Flori-duh and Las Vegas pretty much pancaked at around the same time, and suddenly the journalistic omertà regarding the bursting housing bubble shifted to a never-ending stream of sob stories from FBs who were losing “their” homes – victims, one and all, although as usual the reader comments, when allowed, were far more incisive and on point than the MSM scribblers ever managed to be.

        1. Four states bore the brunt of it: California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida. Losses in these states were epic.

    3. My recollection is that the Case-Shiller data showed San Diego clearly in the lead, the first market to peak and trend down, in Dec 2015. This was up to a year ahead of the laggards.

    4. San Diego was definitely more of a leader last time. We seem to be one of the holdouts this go-round, though recent headlines are certainly encouraging.

      1. Prices Fall for Second Month in Row as San Diego Housing Market Cools
        Posted by Chris Jennewein on November 27, 2018 in Business | 632 Views
        For sale sign
        A for sale sign in San Diego. Photo by Chris Stone

        Home prices in the San Diego region fell for the second month in a row amid a slowdown in the housing market, according to the authoritative Case-Shiller report.

        The report released Tuesday morning showed San Diego home prices down 0.3 percent in September after a 0.5 percent decline in August. However, local prices are still up 4 percent over the past year.

        “Home prices plus data on house sales and construction confirm the slowdown in housing,” said David M. Blitzer, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “On a monthly basis, nine cities saw prices decline in September compared to August.”

        On the West Coast, Los Angeles, Portland and Seattle saw price declines, while prices in San Francisco were unchanged.

        Blitzer said homes sales peaked a year ago and pointed to rising mortgage rates as a key reason for the slowdown.

        1. Watching San Diego home price declines through the lens of the Case-Shiller Index is like driving while looking through the rear view mirror. We’ve collectively weathered a great deal of global financial turmoil and risk asset price declines since San Diego home price declines first reportedly showed up in August and September, suggesting that the trend may have subsequently worsened rather than reversed.

  4. $101.03 Bitcoin Cash price
    −$1,350.77 Since last year (USD)
    −93.04% Since last year (%)

    Is 93% a big drop? Poor, poor alphonso…

    1. We have a freefall occurring:

      $95.43 Bitcoin Cash price
      −$30.33 Since yesterday (USD)
      −24.12% Since yesterday (%)

        1. Poster children of financial mania, land, sticks & bricks, glass air boxes in the oddest places, facetime.com, building materials, alternatives to energy that take more energy, fake emoney.

          I kind of looks like an avalanche is started.

          1. Haha, that all somes it up quite well! Go buy a small off grid plot of land, build a floating airspace out of glass held up be sticks and bricks, power your iPad with some toilet waste and mine some crypto with your solar rig, all while streaming your milestones on instgram and tweeter

    2. Do you know where I can obtain some of those fake coins they always depict in articles about Bitcoin, as a souvenir of the Bitcoin bubble collapse? Remember, Bitcoin is electronic, and doesn’t physically exist. Those photos are fake news.

      1. Dec 7, 2018,12:26 am
        Bitcoin Falls Below $3,300 To Reach Latest Annual Low
        Charles Bovaird, Contributor
        Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
        Crypto & Blockchain
        I am a financial writer and consultant who focuses on investments.

        Bitcoin prices suffered further bloodshed Thursday night, falling below $3,300 and hitting a fresh, 2o18 low.

        The digital currency declined to as little as $3,293.31, according to CoinDesk bitcoin price data.

        At this point, the cryptocurrency was down roughly 11% in the last 24 hours and approximately 83% from its all-time high of nearly $20,000, additional CoinDesk figures reveal.

        [Ed note: Investing in cryptocoins or tokens is highly speculative and the market is largely unregulated. Anyone considering it should be prepared to lose their entire investment.]

      2. Did you miss out on the voyage of the Cryptanic?

        Four Days Trapped at Sea With Crypto’s Nouveau Riche
        By Laurie Penny
        12.05.2018

        Draw me your map of utopia and I’ll tell you your tragic flaw. In 10 years of political reporting I’ve met a lot of intense, oddly dressed people with very specific ideas about what the perfect world would look like, some of them in elected office—but none quite so strange as the ideological soup of starry-eyed techno-utopians and sketchy-ass crypto-grifters on the 2018 CoinsBank Blockchain Cruise.

        It happened like this.

        Two months ago, an editor from BREAKER called and asked if I wanted to go on a four-day Mediterranean cruise with hundreds of crypto-crazed investors and evangelists. We’ll cover the travel, he said. Write something long about whatever you find, he said. It was 2 a.m. and I was over-caffeinated. I remember explaining that I know almost nothing about either cruises or blockchain, in the way that Sir Ian McKellen, in the criminally underrated series Extras, explains that he is not actually a wizard. Five days later I was at the port of Barcelona, boarding a ship. By which point it was way too late to wonder for the umpteenth time about my life choices.

        1. “I was told there would be an overall “Burning Man theme” to the adventure, guaranteed by the presence of Brock Pierce, the cryptocurrency mogul, former child actor, and one-man art installation about peer pressure. (More about him later.) I was anticipating evenings spent listening to crypto-hippies describe the angel-faced space elves they met when they took DMT. I was expecting to fetch water and painkillers for half-conscious corporate executives with dust in their perfect hair and no idea how to get home. I was expecting to get a bit carried away and end up shouting about the government and chalking poetry all over the walls. I was expecting to hear very rich men talk without blinking about tax planning and sacred geometry. I was expecting corporate-branded swimwear. I was expecting to meet smug Californian polyamorists, about whom smug European polyamorists like me are relentlessly judgy. Reader, all of these things transpired, but by the time they did they were a blessed relief.”

          I had to stop after this paragraph. Gag.

      3. Bitcoin
        Bitcoin Is Tumbling Yet Again: Most Other Cryptocurrencies Are Following—But Not All
        By David Meyer 4:54 AM EST

        If there’s a floor to Bitcoin’s terrible 2018 trajectory, it may not have hit it yet. The leading cryptocurrency lost 12% of its value in the last day, falling south of the $3,400 mark.

        Reminder: a year ago today, one Bitcoin was worth $17,900. Bitcoin hasn’t been this low since mid-September 2017, as its glorious — and finite — rally gained traction.

        This isn’t even the first significant Bitcoin tumble of the month. It lost 8% at the start of December. In the preceding weeks, it had further significant daily drops.

        As per usual, Bitcoin’s travails are mirrored by falls in other cryptocurrencies. XRP (Ripple) fell by 12% in the last 24 hours, and Ether (Ethereum) by 17%.

        http://fortune.com/2018/12/07/bitcoin-value-tumble/

  5. Seattle was the easiest bubble to spot…ever! The Chinese have left and they are trying to sell. We go down much further from here

    1. Didn’t the feds just recently pass something requiring any purchased over $300K by a LLC or other entity to reveal the true owner?

      1. You betcha! This November. I am very bias against all this foreign “investing” and believe it is likely the root cause of all the mania behind this bubble we are in.

        Here’s a brief:

        Earlier this month, FinCEN, a division of the Treasury Department, issued revised Geographic Targeting Orders (GTOs) that require title insurance companies to identify the persons behind shell companies used in all-cash purchases of residential real estate.

        The purchase amount threshold, which previously varied by city, is now set at $300,000 for each covered metropolitan area. FinCEN is requiring that covered purchases using virtual currencies also be reported.

        The revised orders cover certain counties within a dozen major metropolitan areas: Boston, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, Honolulu, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, San Antonio, San Diego, San Francisco and Seattle. All are prime destinations for foreigners.

        The FinCEN investigation has been ongoing since January 2016 and has been expanded several times.

        1. all this foreign “investing” and believe it is likely the root cause of all the mania behind this bubble we are in.

          It is a second order effect of our own debt orgy, spilled into the poorest countries of the world and leaked back as graft and corruption.

      1. “But the raiders are coming, LV RE is gonna boom! -realtor”

        Lots of people here believe that! Not just real-turds.

  6. Yep, its different players this time but same game. Torpedo will come from different subs this time around, but they will still come. My opinion is that confidence will fall more quickly this time since many in the game today have vivid memories of the last debacle. In 2006 very few had prior reference.

    Here in Florida, my county, Sarasota, and our neighbor county, Manatee had over 20% appreciation in 2005. They both crashed hard and earlier than other areas.

    News will stoke fears. It is amazing that nearly each news story wants to quote YOY figures to conclude that appreciation is slowing. By necessity, this means that prices are currently falling. If they would be honest and compare MOM rather than YOY, my guess is that it would reveal reductions. YOY is only meaningful in areas where large seasonal variations occur, such as ours in SW Florida. However, it is being used today to hide truth. Interestingly, once we reach one year past peak price, then the YOY decrease will likely be higher than the one month decrease, and then YOY will stop being used since it will be an ugly optic. Will love to see Yun’s adjustment when that happens.

    Mark it down and see if this prediction come true. 2006 all over again.

    Regards.

    1. Yes. This! YoY will start to get really ugly starting in May, right after millions stagger out of H&R Block wondering why they dont have fat refunds.

    2. In 2006 very few had prior reference.

      Yeah, in 2006 it was all about “on a nationwide basis housing has never lost money”. I do expect it to be faster this time around since nobody can say that now AND everybody thinks they are a little smarter and a little quicker than the next guy.

  7. “King County real-estate market has now reached six months, and the drop in home prices over that span is among the largest on record. King County’s median single-family home price fell to $644,000…”

    Still an impossible 9 x county median household income. They have a very long way down to go.

    Ironically, the oversized, poorly designed and cheaply constructed shacks of the bubble will be worth less than a smart modest house in the end.

    1. Especially if they are within developments with steep and constantly rising HOAs…the worst scenario…misaligned, poorly insulated, cracker box houses that look all the same with putrid internal colors of mustard and pompous grass (Pea Green Soup).

  8. UK FBs are already floundering financially, and the cratering hasn’t even begun yet.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-6466873/More-households-mortgage-arrears-2008-FCA-says.html

    More families are struggling to keep up with their mortgage bills today than at the height of the financial crash, the UK’s financial watchdog has revealed.

    As part of a thematic review published today, the Financial Conduct Authority found that there are 14,000 more households in serious arrears of more than 12 months than there was in 2008.

    That comes despite mortgage rates being near record lows and the regulator has warned that banks will start to repossess more homes if interest rates rise.

  9. Wow, just freaking wow! The unfortunate part of all this is that the run up went on for so long we my not even get a decent Fibonacci retracement out of it before the Gov’t finds some way to blow the bubble right back up.

    The first time this happened I was afraid but now, I’m just amused.

    1. ft.com
      Capital markets
      Investors withdraw billions from US equity funds
      Corporate bond funds also suffer as market turmoil increases appeal of government debt
      Joe Rennison in New York
      8 hours ago

      Investors pulled money from equity and corporate bond funds over the past week, preferring the safety of US government debt as trade uncertainties and a re-assessment of global growth forecasts roiled US markets.

      Funds invested in US equities saw $3.5bn of outflows for the week ending December 5, according to data from EPFR Global, nearly reversing inflows into such funds this year. Investors withdrew $1.8bn from US bond funds, marking the fourth straight week of outflows.

      Equity markets have been rocked this week by concerns that a weekend trade truce between the US and China may be unravelling, with the S&P 500 sinking 1.5 per cent. The fears were fanned by the arrest in Canada of Meng Wanzhou, chief financial officer of Chinese tech company Huawei, in response to a US extradition request.

    2. Hedge Funds
      JO Hambro’s Reutter: ‘the markets are bonkers’
      Fund manager lambasts company executives in thrall to investment banks and borrowing
      By Tom Teodorczuk
      December 6, 2018 Updated: December 7, 2018 10:00 a.m. GMT

      Rachel Reutter, a senior fund manager at JO Hambro Capital Management, has sounded a warning on unsustainable debt levels at UK companies, and strongly criticised corporate managers over-eager to borrow.

      Reutter made her observations on management and markets while speaking at the Sohn London Investment Conference on December 5.

      Reutter, who co-manages JO Hambro’s £500m UK Opportunities Fund with Michael Ulrich, said: “The markets are bonkers. There’s material over-valuation everywhere we look. Corporate management teams are behaving so badly and there’s far too much debt throughout the whole system.”

      She added: “One of the biggest challenges we have faced over the last three to four years has been management teams behaving badly. We have come across so many management teams who just cannot say no to investment bankers… they borrow too much, they do massive M&A and they buy back hideously expensive shares.”

    3. Stock futures under pressure ahead of key jobs report
      By Mark DeCambre
      Published: Dec 7, 2018 8:01 a.m. ET
      Dow industrials erased most of a 785-point drop on Thursday in a wild session
      Getty Images
      Jobs, jobs, jobs!

      All three U.S. benchmarks on Friday were poised to fall ahead of a key employment report that could help determine the rate-hike plans for the Federal Reserve.

    4. Slide Show
      7 Reasons the Stock Market Is Selling Off
      By Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA, Contributing Writer | December 6, 2018

      It has gotten downright ugly out there. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index has been dancing in and out of correction territory and is down about 8% from its all-time highs at time of writing. It’s also barely in positive territory in 2018.

      It doesn’t get any prettier when you look at other corners of the market. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is up a meager 4% in 2018, but of more concern is that it’s down 12% from its late-summer highs, putting it well into official correction territory.

      And when you drill down to the major players that have led the bull market in tech shares for years – the “FAANG” stocks Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX) and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) – it’s a bona fide bloodbath. Facebook has lost more than a third of its value from its highs, and Netflix isn’t far behind. Apple has been sliced by a quarter. Amazon has shed nearly 20% of its value, as has Alphabet.

      The picture doesn’t get prettier overseas. Chinese stocks are in an official bear market, and the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA), a proxy for developed international stocks, is flirting with bear-market territory.

      We know it’s ugly out there; the question is why.

  10. “Stelina Simpson recalls selling her Ballard home three years ago .
    .
    turned around and bought a house in West Seattle.
    .
    .
    Recently looking for a trade-up home.”

    W.T.F? 3 houses in 3-4 years? Why can’t people calm down?

  11. Your alleged equity is getting “Pearl Harbor’d” today, LOLZ.

    But seriously, you’re gonna lose alot of money.

    1. The Clinton’s get away with this schitt because they likely have “the dirt” on hundreds of others also in high places.

  12. Fewer Americans are flipping homes — and that’s a bad sign for the housing market
    By Jacob Passy
    Published: Dec 7, 2018 12:07 a.m. ET
    ‘Home flipping acts as a canary in the coal mine for a cooling housing market.’
    Fox Searchlight/Courtesy Everett Collection
    Fewer Americans are buying and fixing up homes in the hopes of selling them for a profit.

    While TV shows like “Fixer Upper” and “Flip or Flop” rule HGTV’s airwaves, few Americans are actually getting in on the home-flipping act these days.

    In total, 45,901 single-family homes and condos were flipped during the third quarter of 2018, a 12% decrease from a year ago, according to a new report released Thursday by real-estate data firm Attom Data Solutions. That is the lowest number of homes flipped in a quarter since the first quarter of 2015.

    1. Fewer Americans are flipping homes — and that’s a bad sign for the housing market

      Sounds like a great sign to me.

    1. financial demise

      Where is that poster who bragged that he and his kids were set for life because of the fortune he made?

  13. “The trend is entirely attributable to more homes sitting on the market unsold, as opposed to more people putting homes up for sale.”

    What’s the difference? Inventory is inventory, and besides, more people had to put homes up for sale for more homes to be sitting on the market.

  14. “The biggest six-month decline for any time of year happened after the housing bubble popped last decade and prices plunged 14 percent. When the dot-com bubble burst, prices never dropped more than 6 percent in six months.”

    What’s going to happen if tech AND RE pop at the same time? Will the losses be additive or logarithmic?

  15. Strangely, some red areas in the inland northwest continue to plummet inventory wise and with upward pressure on prices, still, even as Seattle craters. Flight inland? How long can it prop up the Spokanes of the world?

    1. I have mentioned this before – the feeder areas which produce the equity locusts crater first, because those houses are the ones sold in order to purchase in the cheaper bubble areas. Once the crash is firmly in place in the feeder areas, it spreads like a disease outwards, then the far flung bubble areas dry up due to no more locusts.

      Once the disease has spread, you get weird price distortions where the far flung areas are too expensive as compared to the more desirable areas, and people react in a manner such as “why would I pay X out here when I can buy in a much better place for X.” At that point it is curtains for the sticks, and their demand dries up like a lettuce leaf in the Sahara, and their prices crash much worse than the desirable locales.

      1. Good points, it just seems like it has taken so long to hit some of these Boise/Spokane type markets. But maybe you’re right that the ‘ebola’ is headed there too 🙂

  16. PS Liked your interview Ben, caught it on youtube, good stuff man and had no idea you were a southerner.

    Well done.

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