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Carrying A Monetary Policy Nuclear Football

A weekend topic starting with Mortgage News Daily. “So why did rates spike on Friday? This is actually a bit of a trick question. Rates have been rising in general since late 2020.  The current rate spike really began last week.  The first 4 days of the week were mostly a lull in the bigger picture. They had a chance to be the start of a bigger reversal, but ultimately revealed themselves to be a breath-catching exercise before more pain. In other words, it was a trap–at least for anyone hoping that rates would do something better than catch their breath.”

“The response is varied among mortgage lenders in terms of scope and timing, but on average, 30yr fixed rates are nearly 3/8ths of a point higher in the first 2 weeks of 2022. Even the notoriously stale but widely-cited Freddie Mac weekly rate survey mostly caught up to reality with their biggest jump since the start of the pandemic.”

The Associated Press. “With inflation surging, unemployment falling and wages rising, some economists are warning that the Federal Reserve may have waited too long to reverse its ultra-low-rate policies. With the number of unemployed dwindling, businesses have been forced to raise hourly pay to keep and attract workers. In the final three months of 2021, wages jumped at a 6.2% annual rate. And for workers in restaurants, hotels and casinos, pay soared 14.1% in December compared with a year ago.”

“‘Normally, the Fed would have raised rates long before,’ said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors. ‘The fact that we’ve barely started suggests the Fed has misjudged how quickly the economy was going to come back online.'”

From Yahoo Finance. “Jamie Dimon sees more rate hikes than we think for the U.S. economy this year. The JPMorgan chief executive officer predicted on Friday that rising inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise short-term borrowing costs as many as six or seven times, doubling down on his earlier bet that the currently-anticipated three to four increases are likely a low estimate of what investors can expect.”

“‘My view is, there’s a pretty good chance there will be more than four — there could be six or seven,’ Dimon said during a post-earnings conference call. ‘This whole notion that it’s somehow going to be sweet and gentle and no one is ever going to be surprised I think is a mistake, but that does not mean we won’t have growth.'”

From Market Watch. “Many on Wall Street now expect short-term rates, potentially, to increase four times this year from the current 0% to 0.25% range. Longer-term rates, however, likely will hinge on how aggressively the central bank shrinks its mortgage bond holdings, said Scott Buchta, head of fixed-income strategy at Brean Capital, particularly as the Fed works to get annual inflation closer to its 2% target from 7% as of December.”

“‘I don’t think they want to shock markets,’ he said, noting that home price appreciation historically has run about 2% to 3% above inflation, or roughly 5% growth yearly. ‘20% is not sustainable.'”

“That said, every 100 basis-point increase in the 30-year mortgage rate translates to about a 13% decline in purchasing power for a homeowner relying on financing, according to Buchta’s estimates.”

From Bloomberg. “As a child in the 1940s, Dan Fuss watched helplessly as the price of his favorite ice cream doubled in just one day. Later, he was vindicated as a bond market ‘vigilante,’ when he and others exhorted U.S. administrations to curtail fiscal deficits and wrest control of the inflationary breakout of the 1980s. But all that experience doesn’t make the biggest bout of consumer price growth in nearly four decades much easier for the 88-year old vice chairman of Loomis Sayles — and the generation of pensioners whose investments he helps oversee.”

“Boomers and the like may have the most to lose from price pressures and rising rates that are punishing bonds, which account for 45% of assets held by pension funds and insurers in the world’s biggest markets, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Pensions oversee $30 trillion overall in the U.S., Britain, Europe and Japan, the data shows.”

“These funds have boosted their bond allocations from 35% two decades ago as easy-money policies encourage governments and companies to borrow at rock-bottom rates. ‘People most affected by inflation are those on fixed incomes, especially if their income is not indexed to inflation. Most retirees are in that category,’ Fuss said in an interview. ‘Their income will not catch up with rising prices.'”

“A preference for fixed income puts the older generation in an uncomfortable position with the Treasury index in line for a second year of losses — an event last witnessed in 1974 — as the Federal Reserve pares pandemic stimulus. Already, U.S. government bonds have lost 1.5% in less than two weeks of trading.”

From CNN Business. “‘There’s always the risk of a policy error. The Fed is carrying a monetary policy nuclear football with them, so there is a potential for a mistake,’ said Kristina Hooper, Invesco’s chief global market strategist.”

From Newswire. “Foreign interest in supporting US public debt has fallen off a cliff, it’s basically net zero, so now it is up to the banks, the Fed, and consumers, through their 401K retirement plans, to purchase the regular offerings of US government bonds – which the federal government relies on to finance its deficits. What I’ve tried to prove in this article is the growing disinterest of foreign investors in buying US Treasury debt; with US banks, the Fed and consumers left holding the bag for the federal government’s continued issuance of debt.”

The Globe and Mail. “Real estate investor buying has spread to the smaller cities during the pandemic, with purchases increasing in relatively cheaper housing markets such as Halifax and Ottawa, according to new research from the Bank of Canada. ‘The increased presence of investors in the housing market has contributed to strong demand and may reflect a belief that house prices will continue to rise in value,’ said the research paper, authored by Mikael Khan and Yang Xu.”

“The Bank of Canada report found that investors accounted for the highest share of highly indebted borrowers: 44 per cent of investors had a loan-to-income ratio greater than 450 per cent, meaning they were shouldering loans 4.5 times greater than their annual income. For first-time home buyers and repeat buyers, the share of highly indebted borrowers was each 24 per cent. ‘Investors that are highly indebted could face difficulty servicing their debt following a loss of income (either employment or rental) or an increase in interest rates,’ the paper said.”

The Daily Mail. “Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki is expecting Australian house prices to crash after rising by the third-fastest pace in history – because of speculation. House and unit prices in 2021 surged by 22.1 per cent in 2021, CoreLogic data showed. In records going back to 1880, that was the third-fastest in Australian economic history.”

“‘It’s good for a while. You guys can keep flipping houses, all this stuff, but I’m doing my best to warn you that something might happen,’ he told Daily Mail Australia from Phoenix in Arizona. ‘You can’t just keep printing money. What worked up to 2022 may not work after 2022.'”

“‘You guys are a bunch of punters, you gamble a lot,’ Mr Kiyosaki said. ‘I watched your properties go up and up and up and up and I got out of there. There are too many Aussies and people all over the world, they’re flipping houses. I’ve got to be ten times more cautious now because we have never been here, none of us have ever been here. None of us alive have ever been here.'”

From Newshub New Zealand. “It’s thought that ‘realistic pricing’ will prevail in 2022 as house value growth is expected to slow into the single-digits after a monster couple of years. ‘At this point in time, despite these increases, interest rates are still considered low by historic standards and this has most likely prevented the market being absolutely stuck in the mud,’ says QV Operations Manager Paul McCorry. ‘But any more increases could start to make both banks and their borrowers feel pretty nervous. More rigorous lending criteria that came into effect in December will also have banks really scrutinising every application.'”

“There’s also been a flood of new listings on the market, McCorry says, as people look to put their home up for sale when there is good weather. This means buyers will have a greater choice. ‘They won’t attend every open home and you won’t get as many multi-offer situations. The chatter about properties being handed in at auction is real, as is property sitting on the market beyond the initial tender period – often re-listed with an asking price. Managing vendor expectations coming out of 2021 and into 2022 will be a very advantageous skill set for an agent.'”

From Bloomberg. “China’s indebted real estate developers are getting desperate. Following the epic defaults of China Evergrande Group and Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd, the nation’s two largest high-yield dollar bond issuers, investor sentiment is understandably fragile. Developers, straining to repay debt, are pulling all stops to get loan extensions. Navigating the treacherous market can test even the cleverest financiers.”

“The latest uproar is over Guangzhou R&F Properties Co, which had a US$725 million (RM3.02 billion) dollar bond due. Ten days before Christmas, the developer asked for a six-month extension. To appeal to bondholders, it claimed to have put aside about US$300 million cash to retire some of the outstanding principal. Almost all investors agreed to the deal; over two-thirds were even willing to take a 17% haircut to get their cashback. After the investor vote, Guangzhou R&F changed course. It turns out the actual amount available is now ‘materially less’ than the US$300 million, with the repurchase amounting to only about US$116 million.”

“About US$609 million, or more than 80% of the original amount, is now due in July. Some of its investors must feel pretty stupid right now. While Guangzhou R&F gained six months of breathing room, it could turn out to be a very short-sighted move. The clever ones might be victims of their own cleverness, the Chinese like to say.”

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  2. New York Post — Anti-vax protesters arrested after rushing Times Square Olive Garden (1/15/2022):

    “The incident was over by 10:40 p.m., after most of the dissidents left the restaurant voluntarily, police said. Three men and a woman were expected to be charged with trespassing, according to officials. Their names were not immediately released.

    “Wake up New York! Wake the f— up!,” one of the suspect yelled while being led into a police van in the heart of Times Square, according to video on social media.”

    https://nypost.com/2022/01/15/nyc-anti-vax-protesters-arrested-after-staged-sit-in-at-times-square-olive-garden/

    Note that if they had BURNED THE OLIVE GARDEN TO THE GROUND, instead of trying to eat there, they would all be out of jail with no bail, and have GoFundMe accounts for them with hundreds of thousands of dollars, funded by donations from Blue Checkmark Twitter.

    Clown World gonna clown.

    1. Unless your burn-loot-murder capers are being financed by the Usual Suspects that also bankroll the Democratic Party, straight to prison you will go.

  3. Which comes first:
    Chicken: Inflation causes wage jump (rise).
    Egg: Wage jump (rise) causes (contributes to) inflation.

    1. As far as I can tell, the only ones getting a wage jump are burger flippers and other menials. I see signs all over town offering $14-15/hr. I also see signs promising to pay daily.

      1. From the topic article:
        “In the final three months of 2021, wages jumped at a 6.2% annual rate. And for workers in restaurants, hotels and casinos, pay soared 14.1% in December compared with a year ago.”

        1. With affordability stretched as much as it is, higher interest rates lead to lower house prices. 😀

          1. Which is great if you have all cash. But if you need a mortgage, your PITI payment won’t change much. The only advantages are, you get to deduct interest more from your taxes and maybe you can refinance later. When house prices cratered in 2009-2012, mortgage-seeking end consumers didn’t buy into the affordability.* Most of the buyers were flippers with cash or fix-and-rent companies with cash.

            ——————–
            *and those who did buy were lambasted on blogs.

          2. those who did buy were lambasted on blogs

            That’s quite odd. Not a single person here lambasted me in the slightest. Must be some other reason.

          3. My needs and wants don’t align with flippers. At least 70% cash should give me adequate cushion and bargaining power when sellers head for the exit.

          5. You paid cash for your house in a cheap area. I took out a mortgage. I could probably sell my house tomorrow and walk away with enough cash to buy your house outright.

          6. I could probably sell my house tomorrow

            Oh I remember, the One Banana in Rio argument. You won’t sell tomorrow. Knock it off about saying you can just buy me out if you please. You wouldn’t like it here anyway. Debt doesn’t magically make you rich here.

          9. Redhead, it would be pretty difficult for house prices to drop below what I paid for mine, mainly because there has been modest appreciation over the past 10 years. But even if prices did drop that far, it would be difficult for me to go underwater on the house, mainly because I’ve been paying the mortgage over the past 10 years.

  5. The Federalist — No, Those Who Pushed Lockdowns Can’t Hide From The Consequences Now (1/11/2022):

    “Americans are starting to feel the increasing collateral damage from our unprecedented, ineffective, and ill-advised Covid lockdowns. It was known before March 2020 that lockdowns would cause lifelong and avoidable damage to billions, yet the world’s ruling classes who claim to have earned their place atop a “meritocracy” strenuously demanded such damage be inflicted especially on children and other vulnerable people.

    This ruling class used all their massive financial, communications, and government powers to ensure these tragic outcomes, even though anyone who was an actual expert—or, like me, just someone who reads and has common sense—predicted this false “cure” would hurt worse than the disease.

    Now that people are beginning to more deeply feel the foreseeable evil consequences of ruling class responses to a novel virus, that ruling class is pulling what propaganda experts call a “limited hangout.” That’s admitting to bits of the truth in order to re-establish yourself as a credible authority while attempting to keep the whole truth hidden.

    Now that the damage is done, major corporate media organizations have decided to pivot to acknowledge just enough of the truth to cover their complicity.”

    https://thefederalist.com/2022/01/11/the-people-who-brutalized-children-to-grab-emergency-powers-are-not-experts-theyre-evil/

    Soft Targets 😉

    Everything ever posted on Twitter has been archived and screenshotted.

    The low-level and mid-level Blue Checkmarks, the really loudmouth ones.

    No Glowie, just thinking out loud…

  6. ‘Almost all investors agreed to the deal; over two-thirds were even willing to take a 17% haircut to get their cashback. After the investor vote, Guangzhou R&F changed course. It turns out the actual amount available is now ‘materially less’ than the US$300 million, with the repurchase amounting to only about US$116 million’

    Materially less must be a Chinese accounting term for we was a lion.

        2. Was at the store today. Milk was back in stock but eggs were completely gone. You can still get things, but supplies are thinner — might not last the weekend.

          1. Vibrants in LA have discovered they can raid the supply chain with impunity. That lucrative tactic is going to proliferate to every Democrat-Bolshevik malgoverned state with Soros-installed hug-a-thug DAs, adding to supply chain woes. In addition, it’s going to force Amazon, UPS, etc. to pass on the huge theft costs to their customers. Welcome to Zimbabwe!

            LA Looters Raid Unattended Containers Amid Supply-Chain Chaos

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-14/l-a-looters-raid-unattended-containers-amid-supply-chain-chaos?srnd=premium&sref=ibr3A0ff

            As many Americans worry about empty shelves and delayed packages, looters are taking advantage of the inflow of goods outside of the two southern California ports that are responsible for handling almost half of all U.S. imports.

            In Lincoln Heights, a densely populated neighborhood in central Los Angeles that is home to terminals belonging to Union Pacific Corp. and United Parcel Service Inc., looters are breaking into cargo containers to steal delivery packages, CBS Los Angeles reported.

        4. Glad to see people posting empty shelves on social media.

          Other than clogged emergency rooms at hospitals and vibrant thieves smashing out windows to steal the vehicle’s contents nothing drives it home for the middle-class like seeing bare shelves in supermarkets!

          2. Local gas bills doubled this month.

            You mean you’re cost per therm doubled?

            Welcome to San Diego, owned and operated by SDG&E.

          3. cost per therm doubled?

            Not sure. Total amount did. Others on Nextdoor complaining as well.

            Our landlady also raised our rent starting March 1st. It’s the first increase in 8.5 years but we’ll still be paying well below market rate.

          4. Hubby and I have separate finances. I pay rent and health insurance. He pays utilities and groceries.

          5. Hubby and I have separate finances. I pay rent and health insurance. He pays utilities and groceries.

            Wow. Sounds like he’s got it easy. You’re paying what, 4x what he is?

          7. “Local gas bills doubled this month.”

            Just opened my gas bill today. I couldn’t believe how high it was. I was thinking they read the meter wrong, but maybe it’s the rate.

  8. Reason — Which States Are the Freest? (1/14/2022):

    “freedom seems to matter to Americans. Whether they consciously assess liberty as a factor or it simply affects the opportunity and quality of life they seek, people are moving to states that offer more leeway. Tracking migration patterns “shows a strong relationship between the starting level of freedom and subsequent net migration, suggesting that people are moving to freer states.”

    That holds up in a casual check. If you look at data from North American Moving Services, the states with the most outbound migrants are Illinois (#37 in Freedom in the 50 States), New York (#50), California (#48), New Jersey (#47), and Maryland (#45). The biggest gainers are Idaho (#10), Arizona (#9), South Carolina (#28), Tennessee (#4), and North Carolina (#16). Obviously, other factors such as climate, cost, and job openings play a role. But people do seem to be moving where freedom beckons.

    “For many Americans, living under laws of which they approve is a constituent element of the good life,” the authors write. “As a result, we should expect more ideological ‘sorting.'”

    https://reason.com/2022/01/14/which-states-are-the-freest/

    1. I’m shocked North Carolina ranks that high on the freedom scale. The people we know who live there are planning their escape. After reading what the CATO Institute looks at in computing their scores, I don’t think they’ve taken into account anything governors have done in the past two years vis a vis COVID. Which probably doesn’t give a very accurate picture of some states, like NC.

      1. Colorado ranked even higher (12) though it was #2 in 2014. This also puzzles me. Sure, we have TABOR, which keep the taxman at bay, but other than that the Centennial State also seems overrated. Or other states are even worse.

        1. Going forward, I expect to see more momentum for efforts in Colorado’s red counties & cities like Colorado Springs to break away from the Communists in Denver & either join with free state Wyoming, or form an independent free state that will no longer be subject to Democrat-Bolshevik malgovernance from The People’s Republic of Denver.

          Group in Colorado county seeks secession from state to join Wyoming

          https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/536440-colorado-countys-residents-asking-to-secede-from-state-join-wyoming

          1. If Weld county were to move over to Wyoming I might consider moving to Greeley. For one thing, no state income tax!

          2. There’s been a huge influx of Somali refugees & other Democrat-on-Arrival Third World dependency voters into the Greeley area. I suspect the globalists & their Democrat Quislings are moving heaven & earth to permanently alter the demographics in places like Weld County to turn them reliably blue.

  9. ‘As S&P Global Ratings estimated, the outstanding debt from China’s local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) amounted to 43 trillion yuan ($7 trillion) at the end of June 2021, equivalent to nearly half of China’s gross domestic product, with $1.6 trillion of debt maturing this year.’

    ‘The funds are not included in official balance sheets but are treated in the same way as a government liability by financial markets.’

    ‘Goldman Sachs reckoned that the total debt of local government financing vehicles rose to about 53 trillion yuan ($8.2 trillion) at the end of 2020, larger than the amount of official outstanding government debt.’

    ‘These LGFVs are companies set up by governments that raise funds and pay for various projects. They were created during the global financial crisis of 2008 to let local officials evade a central ban on direct borrowing by local governments, enabling municipalities to raise debt quickly for economic stimulation.’

    ‘Many of them hold assets of dubious quality: highways to nowhere, empty airports and hotels, sprawling shopping districts, and amusement parks. In an April document, the Chinese regime suggested that LGFVs should be allowed to go bankrupt if they lose their ability to pay.’

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinese-land-sales-falls-significantly-deepening-local-government-debt-stress_4212841.html

    ‘amounted to 43 trillion yuan ($7 trillion) at the end of June 2021, equivalent to nearly half of China’s gross domestic product, with $1.6 trillion of debt maturing this year’

    Is that a lot?

  10. It’ll be fun watching Real Journalist talking heads get axed from globalist propaganda outlets, to be replaced by AI news anchors that can be programmed just as easily to spew The Narrative and DNC talking points at a fraction of the cost.

    China Unveils AI News Anchor That’s Almost Indistinguishable From a Real Human

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-reveals-ai-news-anchor-almost-indistinguishable-from-a-real-human_4207963.html?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge

    “Hello everyone, I am the artificial intelligence news anchor on National Business Daily. I am the virtual twin of the original host. I have been running—reporting the news—undetected for 70 days now,” the AI news anchor N Xiaohei revealed itself to its television viewers on Dec. 20, 2021, after 1700 hours of a continuous live news broadcast.

    On the same day, the Chinese state-controlled media National Business Daily (NBD) and the AI company Xiaoice jointly announced the official launch of their collaborative live news broadcasting TV programs run entirely by AI—the first of its kind.

    1. “The era of an unwearied, safe, and reliable AI Being has arrived,” Xiaoice CEO Li Di said. “It is going to provide a steady news output.”

      At some point it will be compulsory to watch the authorities propaganda as random 90-sec quizzes will verify absorption of information.

      1. Once the Fed rolls out its digital dollar, Big Brother will have the ultimate means of surveillance and control as TPTB will have total visibility into all of your financial transactions, and can deny you access to the banking system – and seize your funds – should you fail to comply with globalist “mandates.”

    2. ** ” . . .announced the official launch of their collaborative live news broadcasting TV programs run entirely by AI—the first of its kind.”

      include the morning 2 minutes of hate: that will really goose the ratings!

      (myself, I just settle for morning coffee-fueled keystroke rants on some online blog. Somebody named “Jones” runs it. a very smart & eccentric cast of characters populate it. I don’t know why they tolerate me.)

  11. It’s getting harder for the globalists and their Quislings to keep pushing boosters for life when even globalist media outlets are starting to point out the obvious: no data exists to support the efficacy of such measures.

    ‘No data’ to support second booster dose of current Covid vaccines

    https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/no-data-to-support-second-booster-dose-of-current-covid-vaccines/news-story/c0b800e4a8566ca4d8cda70b917a7228

    A number of global health officials have questioned booster campaigns as countries begin to roll out fourth doses to high-risk groups.

    1. Given Omicron, there’s not much data to support a first booster either. The original course seems good enough to prevent major sickness. There’s almost nothing to prevent mild sickness.

  12. Latest from #ClownWorld

    Chicago official suggests people blow whistles, run towards armed thugs to “scare off” criminals

    https://www.lawenforcementtoday.com/chicago-official-suggests-people-blow-whistles-run-towards-armed-thugs-to-scare-off-criminals/

    CHICAGO, IL- Who knew you could scare off people who want to blow your head off by blowing a whistle? This is a game-changer for crime fighting! How do clowns like this get elected?

    In Chicago, an alderman (or “alderperson) is suggesting her constituents wear whistles, which they would then blow while running toward thugs armed with firearms if they witness a crime taking place. No, this is not an article from the Babylon Bee.

          1. Every time a libtard

            FWIW, he gave the bum his own coat. Libtards like to “give”, but only when it’s other people’s property.

            What he did wrong was lay his coat on the sleeping bum.

        2. From the article:
          —————-
          The assault occurred as New York City’s crime rate soars after [District Attorney] Bragg’s controversial decision to downgrade burglary, armed robbery and drug dealing from felonies to misdemeanors.

          Former Police Commissioner Bill Bratton said newly-elected Mayor Eric Adams has his hands tied in terms of crime while Bragg’s office implements its woke policies.

          Adams had promised a return to broken-windows policing after winning on a tough-on-crime approach campaign.
          —————

          Is there still a mob in NYC?

  13. there’s a long term pernicious push to eliminate or at least diminish the concept of the USA. it’s being done to make it easier to eventually fully take it over when the opportunity arises for some authoritarians.

    ‘homeland’ is replacing ‘united states’ more and more in casual conversation. ‘homeland’ compromises our individuality. every country can be a ‘homeland’ or ‘fatherland’. but only the ‘united states’ refers exclusively to ‘our’ country. ours and no other.

    it began when the leftists created the dept. of ‘homeland security’.
    and it’s almost as bad as the ‘patriot act’. as if the patriot act is patriotic.

    calling our country ‘homeland’ is just creepy and wrong. we are the united states, not ‘homeland’. if germany was steeped in third wave feminism in the 1930s, ‘fatherland’ would have been out the window and it would have taken ‘homeland’ long before we did.

    the left is trying to make us patriotic to the state, instead of the country. ‘homeland’ should be tossed in the dustbin.

    2. ‘homeland’ is replacing ‘united states’ more and more in casual conversation.

      In whose casual conversation? The Deep State’s?

  14. “Jamie Dimon sees more rate hikes than we think for the U.S. economy this year. The JPMorgan chief executive officer predicted on Friday that rising inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise short-term borrowing costs as many as six or seven times, doubling down on his earlier bet that the currently-anticipated three to four increases are likely a low estimate of what investors can expect.”

    What a crock. This a$$hat is trying to talk up JPM stock valuation. A more likely scenario is that the Wall Street-Federal Reserve Looting Syndicate will decide the time is right for the next Great Muppet Reaping, a la 2008. The Fed’s bankster controllers will take out massive short positions against the Fed’s asset bubbles & Ponzi markets, then order their prison bit*ch Jerome Powell to hike steeply enough in one go to implode the Everything Bubble, facilitating once again the transfer of wealth and assets from the financially strip-mined middle & working classes to the Fed’s oligarch accomplices. Wash, rinse, repeat.

  15. “Jamie Dimon sees more rate hikes than we think for the U.S. economy this year. The JPMorgan chief executive officer predicted on Friday that rising inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise short-term borrowing costs as many as six or seven times, doubling down on his earlier bet that the currently-anticipated three to four increases are likely a low estimate of what investors can expect.”

    How does the Fed intend to shrink its MBS holdings or roll debt off its $9 trillion balance sheet when no “investors” in their right mind are going to buy those toxic-waste MBSs or debt that has such pitifully low interest rates compared to real-world inflation, which is at least double what our fake, Soviet-style CPI stats says it is?

      1. The Fed’s balance sheet keeps expanding even while these fraudsters jawbone about a mythical pending tapering.

    2. I don’t really care wtf Jamie Dimon has to say. The only sound I want to hear out of him is gurgling, as he chokes on his own blood and dies. He is one of “them.”

  16. “‘There’s always the risk of a policy error. The Fed is carrying a monetary policy nuclear football with them, so there is a potential for a mistake,’ said Kristina Hooper, Invesco’s chief global market strategist.”

    This is the sort of dreck I’d expect from CNN Business. The Fed’s monetary policy since 1913 has had a singular purpose: to facilitate the oligarchy’s looting & asset-stripping of the middle & working classes.

    The upcoming Great Financial Crisis II, aka Great Muppet Reaping, won’t be a “mistake” – it’ll be the Fed, as usual, facilitating the transfer of wealth and property from the muppetry to the Fed’s bankster accomplices.

  17. Few things are as heartwarming as seeing West Coast celebrity libtards in their not-so-secure gated enclaves reaping the bountiful blessings of the multiculturalism they’ve been pushing on flyover country.

    Burglars hit the home of Lori Loughlin and Mossimo Giannulli in LA and made off with million bucks in jewelry

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10405779/Burglars-hit-home-Lori-Loughlin-Mossimo-Giannulli-LA-took-1million-jewelry.html

    Scandal-scarred couple Lori Loughlin and Mossimo Giannulli were reportedly the victims of a break-in at their multimillion dollar Los Angeles-area compound, where masked bandits allegedly swiped $1 million in jewelry while the former jailbirds were not home.

    Loughlin, 57, and Giannulli, 58 – who both went to prison in the college admissions fiasco – home was broken in on January 3 after thieves broke their bedroom window and took the Full House actress’s jewelry box, according to TMZ.

    2. Meh, it could be a fraudulent insurance claim. I mean, how convenient the robbers knew there was a million bucks in jewelry and that it wasn’t secured in a safe, or at least well hidden.

  18. “The pandemic” isn’t what’s causing shortages – it’s the Brandon regime’s response to the pandemic.

    U.S. grocery shortages deepen as pandemic dries supplies

    https://news.yahoo.com/u-grocery-shortages-deepen-pandemic-180518711.html

    (Reuters) – High demand for groceries combined with soaring freight costs and Omicron-related labor shortages are creating a new round of backlogs at processed food and fresh produce companies, leading to empty supermarket shelves at major retailers across the United States.
    Growers of perishable produce across the West Coast are paying nearly triple pre-pandemic trucking rates to ship things like lettuce and berries before they spoil. Shay Myers, CEO of Owyhee Produce, which grows onions, watermelons and asparagus along the border of Idaho and Oregon, said he has been holding off shipping onions to retail distributors until freight costs go down.

  19. Measures like this are aimed at funneling more payola from AirB&B to local councils. Democrat-Bolshevik city councils could advise their UK counterparts on how to facilitate the flow of stuffed brown envelopes into their off-the-books accounts.

    Airbnb landlords in rural communities may need to acquire a licence to offer their homes as short-term holiday lets over fears locals are being driven out due to lack of rental properties

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10405635/Airbnb-landlords-rural-areas-need-licence-offer-homes-short-term-holiday-lets.html

    Airbnb owners in rural communities may need to acquire a licence to offer their homes as short-term holiday lets due to fears locals are being driven out due to a lack of rental properties.

    A proposal being considered by ministers could force second homeowners to gain consent from their local council to manage short-term holiday lets.

  20. The relentless efforts of George Soros and his fellow globalist oligarchs to destroy the rule of law in this country are about to get a major boost from Brandon, as this is a key Democrat-Bolshevik priority.

    Law enforcement skeptical of Biden’s ‘ill-timed’ pivot to executive orders on police reform: ‘Not sustainable’

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/law-enforcement-groups-skeptical-biden-executive-orders-police-reform

    Law enforcement organizations are expressing concern and skepticism of Biden’s reported plan to resort to the use of executive orders on police reform, saying it is “not a sustainable” means of achieving long-term change, and a political attempt to distract from the administration’s week of defeats.

    The executive actions are still being finalized, according to NBC News, but are expected to be rolled out at the start of Black History Month in February as the administration tries to achieve policy goals leading up to the president’s State of the Union address in March.

    1. Did I miss something where we stopped being a nation of laws and now are a nation of “executive orders”???

      1. It started during the Obama Administration.
        1. Sign Executive Order.
        2. Set up “offended” straw man lawsuit in the San Fran 9th Circuit.
        3. 9th Circuit says it’s okay. Presto, you now have a “law.”
        4. Appeals process to Supreme Court takes about a year.
        5. During that year, you steal enough elections to take over Congress and hide the new “law” in some “human infrastructure” bill.
        6. Presto, you have a real law.

    2. and a political attempt to distract from the administration’s week of defeats.

      I figured Brandon would try to punish us for all his mistakes and failures.

  21. The overriding principle in US is the Constitutional protections, bill of rights , all the Amendments are the overriding laws of the Nation.
    So, for instance a State couldn’t pass a law saying slavery is now legal, or that taxes for Federal government is void .
    So, under a contrived Pandemic , the Government Health Authorities have tried to supersede all Constitutional freedoms + protections, saying this medical emergency supersedes all standing law.
    That fake news can in collusion with Big Pharmacy, censor facts and dispute to expiermental vaccines , in which the public was deceived as to informed consent , or risks with the lab rat expierment under Emergency Use Authorization.
    That a cover up of vaccine caused death and injury can keep a vaccine that should be taken off the market , now mandated for health care workers by a High Court.
    And a obvious corrupted and captured FDA , riddled with Big Pharmacy shills with conflict of interest, allowing this fake vaccine, while over looking overwhelming death and injury by the not safe or effective shots.
    The Pandemic is over, go back to normal .

  22. Also, the very elderly, with many co morbidities, could die just getting a minor cold or the regular flu. This has been going on for years and does not constitute a Pandemic or grounds for global lockdowns, or forced expiermental junk vaccines.
    Maybe they should try giving some of the meds that look effective to these vulnerable elderly people and others with co morbidities instead of the Fauci Killer protocol prevalent in hospitals.

  23. Oh dear….

    China Home Market Slump Deepens as Prices Fall for Fourth Month

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-15/china-december-home-prices-fall-at-slower-pace-than-november?srnd=premium-asia&sref=ibr3A0ff

    China’s home prices fell for a fourth consecutive month in December, as the credit crunch in the property sector showed little sign of easing.

    New home prices in 70 cities, excluding state-subsidized housing, slid 0.28% last month from November, when they dropped 0.33%, National Bureau of Statistics figures showed Saturday.

  24. Remember, prospective landlords in Democrat-Bolshevik malgoverned cities: parasitism & freeloading are the supreme virtues which must be enabled & encouraged as public policy. Forward, Soviet!

    ‘Wellness’ experts shirk $349,000 rent in Upper East Side eviction battle: lawsuit

    https://nypost.com/2022/01/15/wellness-experts-shirk-349000-rent-in-upper-east-side-eviction-battle-lawsuit/

    A chiropractor and his wife who are regulars on the Hamptons social scene are breaking their Manhattan landlord’s back — failing to pay $349,000 in rent on a posh Upper East Side townhouse, according to court documents.

    Darren Pollack and Sharon Russo first rented the $5 millionEast 84th Street home just blocks from Gracie Mansion in November 2019, agreeing to shell out $19,000 a month during a two-year lease.

    But the couple, who own a $2 million Southampton house and send their two kids to a $56,000-a-year Manhattan prep school, stopped paying the rent once the pandemic hit in March 2020, claims landlord Morris Gad, a well-known diamond dealer.

    1. “a four-foot wave observed”

      The power of the wave resides in its speed and in its wavelength. As the wave reaches shore the front of the wave slows which allows the rest of the wave to catch up. This “catching up” adds size to the wave.

      1. From the net …

        Once a tsunami forms, its speed depends on the depth of the ocean. In the deep ocean, a tsunami can move as fast as a jet plane, over 500 mph, and its wavelength, the distance from crest to crest, may be hundreds of miles. Mariners at sea will not normally notice a tsunami as it passes beneath them; in deep water, the top of the wave rarely reaches more than three feet higher than the ocean swell. NOAA Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) systems, located in the deep ocean, are able to detect small changes in sea-level height and transmit this information to tsunami warning centers.

        1. “…detect small changes in sea-level height…”

          Likely a series of pressure transducer observations reduced to a mean value whereas a visual observation might involve a wave peak to trough estimate.

    1. F* this globalist piece of doodoo.

      He needs to have his U.S. passport confiscated, be stripped of his U.S. citizenship, all of his assets seized, and get tossed into Guantanamo under conditions equal or worse than all the January 6th gulag prisoners.

      We’re taking our country back.

    2. Billy Boy is gonna be hanging by the scrote soon. He thought he was so clever….turns out not so much.

          1. I wouldn’t bet on that. New identities can be created, and as long as they stay out of the public eye, say on a private island after some face altering cosmetic surgery, they could disappear. As far as everyone knows, Juan De La Vega lives on that island. Not saying it would be fun, being a recluse in constant fear of being found and caught, but I think they could do it.

          2. I wouldn’t bet on that.

            I would. First of all, their own security personnel would probably be the ones to do them in. But assuming they didn’t, everybody knows who these people are, where they are from, where the money came from, etc. That’s why it’s big news when they flee. There has never been a case where some global big shot fled a country to somewhere unknown. Doesn’t happen. You cannot move around the globe incognito. It doesn’t work that way.

  27. Dude took his medical exemption to get a 4 pound box of Animal Crackers and a giant jar of Peanut Butter Filled Pretzels and they went all George Floyd on him.

    Efron Monsanto 🇨🇦
    @realmonsanto

    Customer in an Etobicoke Costco is arrested and hauled away by cops for not wearing a mask despite having a medical exemption.

    Allegedly one of the managers of the store is detaining the man alongside police.

    It’s for your health.

    https://twitter.com/realmonsanto/status/1482374233414160384?s=20

    2. no problem we hate costco, awful pushy customers wanting to spend every last dime filling their carts….dont shop in walmart much either …I just never liked the big box stores when looking for a few items, So im glad the pandemic made it so easy to buy on line.

    1. Sounds like a good reason to cancel one’s subscription to DirectTV and send some of the money saved to OAN.

  29. Democrats Moving Away From Lockdown Restrictions Over Fears of Being Crushed Politically – Summit News
    https://summit.news/2022/01/14/democrats-moving-away-from-lockdown-restrictions-over-fears-of-being-crushed-politically/

    (snip)

    “In response to plummeting approval ratings, Democrats are now moving away from lockdown policies they previously vehemently advocated over fears about being wiped out politically.

    “That’s according to a new report by Politico, which notes how, ‘Omicron is surging — and Democrats aren’t shutting things down this time.’

    “’From New York to California, Democratic mayors and governors are fighting to keep schools and businesses open with an urgency they haven’t flexed before in the pandemic,’ writes Lisa Kashinsky.

    “That sea change likely has a lot to do with Republicans securing a November clean sweep of the House, as well as the offices of governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general in Virginia.”

    😁

  30. Denial Of Natural Immunity In CMS Vaccine Mandate “Unprecedented In Modern History”: Scott Atlas | ZeroHedge
    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/denial-natural-immunity-cms-vaccine-mandate-unprecedented-modern-history-scott-atlas

    (snip)

    “‘Our continued denial of superior protection in recovered individuals, with or without vaccination, compared to vaccinated individuals who’ve never had the infection,’ he said.

    “’The denial of that is simply unprecedented in modern history, proven fact and decades of fundamental immunology are somehow denied.’

    “’If we are a society where the leaders repeatedly deny the fact, I’m very concerned about the future of such a society,’ he added.”

    1. Natural immunity isn’t as good as it should be for corona. I personally know people who’ve caught it twice a year apart. Totally sucks because it should provide immunity forever but it seems to last a yea me which is still better than a vaccine.

      1. Maybe on some people, those with weak immune systems.

        If it gives you peace of mind, go ahead and get jabbed. Just don’t demand that I get jabbed.

        1. Ha! I’m not getting jabbed with the current ‘vaccines’. But I’m not entirely convinced that catching it provides long lasting natural immunity for everyone. Earlier studies show the chances of reinfection were something like 4 or 5 in 1,000 but lately the reinfection stories have been cropping up again. I may have even caught it again – I think I caught it in Jan 2020 before testing was widely available and then again in Nov 2020.

          1. Yes, that seems to be the case, and includes my possible reinfection of the wild type (Jan 2020 before testing widely available and my drs refuse to give me an antibody test) and my Nov 2021 Delta (sorry not Nov 2020 Delta like I said above).

            I don’t trust the official narrative one iota but I don’t necessarily trust the other sources either. So much science has been comprised by scientists looking for a narrative that little of it can be trusted any more.

          2. but lately the reinfection stories have been cropping up again

            And they are uncommon. And keep in mind that many who are testing positive now just have an ordinary cold.

          3. It sounds/looks like there’s some cross-reactivity going on with the PCR tests. SARS-CoV-2 is engineered. Is there a flu sequence in it too?

        2. I certainly don’t believe the ‘official’ CDC story that only the vaccine provides protection not natural immunity; or that a jab and booster after getting sick gives you superimmunity.

          Reinfection is rare during the one year time period that the studies included. However, now that we are going onto two years, reinfection seems more common, and I’m not just talking about media stories but people I know personally.

          Hopefully natural immunity lasts long than a year for most people other than those with underlying health issues. I sure as heck don’t want to catch it again.

          1. I sure as heck don’t want to catch it again.

            Neither do I. But based on my previous experience with the coof, it wouldn’t be terrible. Short of being pinned to the ground by government thugs and forcefully jabbed, there is no way I’m getting the kill shot.

      2. Natural immunity isn’t as good as it should be for corona

        There is no cure for the common cold, AKA coronavirus. Most people catch it occasionally, most get over it.

          1. It’s a modified bat virus

            So you do actually believe narratives.

            I was quite sick Jan 2020 as well, sick enough to go to the ER.

        2. The evidence for the bat virus coming from a lab is pretty strong. The ‘narrative’ that the virus evolved naturally from a pangolin at a wet market. It’s not clear at this point whether the virus was leaked, or intentionally released, or if it was supposed to be a vaccine that went wrong. But that Wuhan Lab was going deep into caves to find crazy bat viruses that no humans rarely come into contact with and then they modified the virus. Everyone can draw their own conclusions.

      3. “I personally know people who’ve caught it twice a year apart.”

        My wife and I are not as sociable as many of our friends who have been infected with COVID. Among those were infected it seems like those with diabetes or previous tobacco use continue to have serious problems while the rest carry on as before.

      4. Maybe not, debt serf. If people caught COVID a year apart, then they almost certainly caught wild-type and then Delta, or Alpha and then Omicron. But there might be long-lasting immunity from Omicron to Omicron.

        1. Nah….they got the seasonal cold/flu 1 year apart and chose to get a phony test that labeled it convid.

    1. Or they could just watch the video that Peak Prosperity (Chris Martenson) put out where he proved that the virus was man-made just by looking at the structure of the virus itself. That video dropped on May 4, 2020.

      2. I knew it was man-made in February 2020. I posted that conclusion here on HBB around February 22 IIRC.

          1. I remember

            BlueSkye didn’t believe the HIV inserts and Prof Bear asked how I could possibly know that it was a bioweapon back then. Answer: preponderance of publicly available evidence. Fauci’s FOIA’d emails raised it to beyond a reasonable doubt. Arkmedic is adding detail as to the how and potential explanations for what we’re seeing medically.

          3. Have they found this in Omicron?

            I would assume so but that’s beyond my pay grade. I don’t keep up with the variant mutations and if/how those mutations change the protein structure and/or binding affinities. I’ve had COVID and I’m never getting jabbed with these experimental frankendrugs.

          4. I’m currently on Arkmedic’s Substack trying to get him to retract a reckless Twitter thread that is leading people to conclude that pharma owns the jabbed.

          5. beyond my pay grade

            Just wondering if what the “cases” are now is a descendant of the CCP flu or our old friend the common cold. I would think those fellows with an electron microscope would be wondering the same. I don’t swim in that water as much as you, so if you see anything let us know.

          6. I don’t swim in that water

            Dr. Donk does more than I do. I’m far more concerned about the jabs than the virus.

          7. Blue, they’re still working on the lineage. John Campbell has a video on the possibility that Omicron has been around for a long time, and may have developed in mice(?). The story is very intriguing. Here’s the video. You don’t have to watch the video; just read the notes in the Description:

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aH1u1GIPU2A&t=1s

    2. aww man, is there gonna be math after that essay RPRH?!
      I don’t FEEL tardy. gimme somethin’ to write on.

        1. I can’t say the same for his other mouse trails. Forewarning, his schtick is a nude mouse. What can I say? Scientists have quirky senses of humor.

          1. schtick

            I also follow a bad cat with a good kitty alter ego. It’s a sad sign of our times when intelligent people with valuable information have to hide behind schticks and pseudonyms.

          2. have to hide behind schticks and pseudonyms

            Makes me think of Ender’s Game, how Ender’s siblings posted on their “internet” as Demosthenes and Locke, and wound up being very influential. Peter eventually became the Hegemon, IIRC.

          3. Ender’s Game

            Apparently a 2013 movie. Beyond that I’m lost. But I will say: isn’t it odd that Hollywood “predicts” these things?

          4. Apparently a 2013 movie.

            A novel, by Orson Scott Card, written in 1985. The movie wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t great either.

          5. Card is considered persona non grata by the left for his views on same sex marriage. A boycott was launched against the film, and all his written works, though the book boycott came years after Ender’s Game and its sequels were published.

    1. The Financial Times
      Cryptocurrencies
      Kim Kardashian, Floyd Mayweather and a crypto token’s wild ride
      Lawsuit shines a light on the booming business for celebrity endorsements
      © FT montage/Bloomberg/USA TODAY Sports/Reuters/AFP/Getty
      Joshua Oliver in London and Madison Darbyshire in New York January 14 2022

      “Are you guys into crypto????” Kim Kardashian asked in an Instagram post last summer, drawing her 250m followers’ attention to a new coin known as EthereumMax.

      The post by the reality TV star may have made financial-market history with its reach, outstripping cryptocurrency promotions and endorsements from dozens of other big-name celebrities. But a week after the message, the tokens had lost 70 per cent of their value. The price never recovered.
      …

  36. “So why did rates spike on Friday? This is actually a bit of a trick question.”

    Maybe the Tongan undersea eruption caused the rate spike?

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