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We Thought It Was Here To Stay, But Maybe It’s A Golden Age That’s Come To An End

A report from the Florida Times Union. “Alex Sifakis, president of JWB Real Estate Capital in Jacksonville, said his company now manages 4,300 single-family rental properties in the city and owns another 400 of them. From the investment side, he said he simply can’t keep up with investors wanting to sink money into single-family rental properties. ‘It seems like it’s almost insatiable at this point,’ Sifakis said. ‘Ten years ago people didn’t think single-family properties could be something that was in the institutional asset class. Those people were proven wrong. We’re seeing it grow by the minute,’ he said. ‘I probably get two calls a week from institutions that have raised money or are trying to deploy money and want to do that in single-family rental properties.'”

The San Antonio Report in Texas. “As investment companies from Austin and elsewhere trade apartment complexes in San Antonio at a blistering pace, efforts to boost profit margins have created what residents say are problems and even dangers. The buyer expanding the fastest in the city, according to real estate data, is an Austin-based investor-landlord company called Shippy Properties. The stated strategy of David Shippy, the company’s founder and CEO who wrote a 2019 book detailing his wealth-building formula, involves buying up working-class apartment complexes, slashing maintenance costs and charging tenants new fees.”

“‘I like to think of each apartment complex as a cash machine,’ wrote Shippy in his book Money Matters for Financial Freedom: The Fast Path to Abundance in Life and Business. David Shippy writes that Class B and C property deals for him have always delivered ‘well over double-digit returns.’ It’s not just because of the cheaper purchase price but also because of the tenant base — ‘households that are living in Class B and C properties typically can’t afford to own a house or to live in a Class A property. So, you have a captive audience.'”

“One way to cut expenses, he wrote, is to try to do all maintenance in-house rather than hire contractors and ‘to shop around and find the lowest prices for big-ticket items like appliances, lighting fixates, plumbing fixtures, and paint.’ The approach appears to have paid off for Shippy. ‘Apartment investing had changed our lives,’ he wrote. ‘We now lived in a multimillion-dollar house, had an additional new house on the beach, drove brand new Mercedes and Porsche cars, and took exotic vacations with our family several times a year.'”

From My Central Jersey. “A petition opposing a plan to build apartments at the former Kmart in Rutgers Plaza has gathered more than 1,000 signatures. ‘There is no need for additional homes in Franklin as there have been many new developments on nearby Hamilton Street … many of which barely have any tenants,’ the petition continues. ‘It makes no sense to create a logistical nightmare for those of us who already live here.'”

The Desert Sun in California. “Local Realtors say heated competition for a dwindling number of homes drove up prices and, in many cases, eliminated typical must-haves and basic due-diligence processes such as pre-purchase home inspections and appraisals. Yet many local Realtors see those trends slowing in the year ahead, leading to a more stable 2022 for the Coachella Valley real estate market. Some even see potential lawsuits and signs of a ‘hangover’ from last year’s buying frenzy on the horizon.”

“In the heat of the moment, some buyers offered terms they later weren’t able or willing to fulfill. Most local Realtors reported seeing a significant increase in the number of homes falling out of contract last year as buyers reneged on key terms they had advanced to lock down a deal. ‘There’s definitely going to be a hangover (in the market)’ said Jim Franklin, a local Realtor and president of Greater Palm Springs Realtors.”

“He said some buyers who rushed into deals — especially those who waived typical due-diligence processes such as pre-sale home inspections — may discover issues with their new properties months after the sales. ‘The buyer who is pissed off is then going to get a hold of his agent who will say, ‘I didn’t know anything,’ Franklin said. ‘And then they’re going to go to the other agent who represented the seller and they’re going to sue them too. They’re going to go after them for not disclosing. And now you have a disclosure problem.'”

From Reuters. “Chinese construction and decoration companies are writing off assets or issuing profit warnings as debt woes at China Evergrande Group and other property developers debilitate their suppliers. Guangzhou Holike Creative Home Co, a furniture maker, became the latest company to disclose losses linked to Evergrande, which has racked up over $300 billion in debt, including 200 billion yuan ($31.44 billion) owed to suppliers via commercial paper.”

“And despite some easing measures taken by the government to ease developers’ liquidity stress and support the cooling economy, recent data suggests the problem will get worse. Units of Shimao Group Holdings, Kaisa Group Holdings and Greenland Group were named and shamed this month in a list of Chinese companies ‘consistently overdue’ on commercial paper payments.”

From Stuff New Zealand. “Internationally, the story is the same. Inflation is on the rise due to monetary policies introduced to soften the economic blow of Covid, and supply chain issues are restricting the production and flow of goods. ‘The inflation dragon is well and truly awake,’ said ANZ. Economists said such conditions hadn’t been seen in New Zealand since the 1970s and early 1980s – when Robert Muldoon was prime minister and inflation was out of control.”

“‘Recently we’ve had such a period of low inflation that people thought inflation would always be low,’ said University of Auckland economist Susan St John. ‘We thought it was here to stay, but maybe it’s a golden age that’s come to an end.'”

“For those with mortgages, interest rate hikes could be the final financial straw. In its forecast, ANZ gave the example of a hypothetical $800,000 mortgage undergoing an increase from 2.21 per cent to 3.49 per cent. Their payments would increase by roughly $115 a week, assuming a 25-year term. ‘That’s going to hurt. And when you multiply across hundreds of thousands of borrowers, it’s a lot of disposable income suddenly taken up with increased mortgage payments.'”

“‘I have been struggling to even think about it, the when, the where of the mortgage going up,” said Rose Kavapalu, a cleaner from Māngere. ‘I don’t want to think about it because it’s so mentally draining. The fear, it’s tiring.'”

“Her hours have been cut and cut, to just five a day. On minimum wage, it’s not enough. But her second job disappeared when Auckland went into the red light Covid-19 setting, and she’s been unable to find another one despite looking every day since. ‘I have been looking everywhere, but it is really hard at the moment. There is nothing. I just pray that there’s a miracle, and we have enough, we pay the mortgage and there is enough left for hopefully a piece of bread for me.'”

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This Post Has 164 Comments

  1. Jeebus there’s a lot of crater out there.

    ‘‘The buyer who is pissed off is then going to get a hold of his agent who will say, ‘I didn’t know anything…And then they’re going to go to the other agent who represented the seller and they’re going to sue them too. They’re going to go after them for not disclosing. And now you have a disclosure problem’

    But winnahs Jim?

    1. Coachella Valley is a bifurcated population of “haves and have-nots.” Unemployment is high, and those with jobs are employed in the manual labor services that barely eke-out a living wage. Burglary, car prowls and vandalism are daily occurrences. It’s economically impossible for home prices to rise 20% or more without fed.gov corruption.

      1. And a large swath of Coachella Valley’s CRE remains boarded-up with FOR LEASE and FOR SALE signs everywhere!

      2. Almost the entirety of the Inland Empire is a shithole, save for a few wealthy areas. But even then the weather is horrific for over 6 months of the year, much like Phoenix.

  2. I just got this in an email:

    ‘New or Recently Constructed 355 Home SFR Portfolio in Southern California/Imperial County’

    Says ‘builder can’t build fast enough to keep up with leasing demand’

    So why sell? Yer gonna be rich I tells ya!

  3. ‘Ten years ago people didn’t think single-family properties could be something that was in the institutional asset class. Those people were proven wrong’

    This article is funny. It mentions these clowns bought foreclosures and rented them out. Now somebody is paying top dollar! SF shacks sux as rentals IMO. And all those ‘institutional’ a$$hats from last decade sold to the bond market bag holders many years ago.

    ‘We’re seeing it grow by the minute…I probably get two calls a week from institutions that have raised money or are trying to deploy money and want to do that in single-family rental properties’

  4. The media says hurrah!

    ‘‘I like to think of each apartment complex as a cash machine…households that are living in Class B and C properties typically can’t afford to own a house or to live in a Class A property. So, you have a captive audience. We now lived in a multimillion-dollar house, had an additional new house on the beach, drove brand new Mercedes and Porsche cars, and took exotic vacations with our family several times a year’

    This is what they celebrate. Take a look at the photos.

    1. In the interest of accuracy, perhaps Mr. Shippy should change the name of his property company Shippy Properties by replacing the “pp” to “tt”.

    2. “Take a look at the photos.”

      A caption from one of the photos: “Miguel Martinez, Liana Calderon and daughter Jayleen Martinez stand in front of…”

      The section 8 gravy is probably thicker for this Amazon family if they’re not married. They look like dependency voters to me, but they’re likely doing better here than where they came from.

    3. Just a hard way to live – when you have little choice.

      As a Seattle native, many of us are difficult about the mess created by people living in the cars etc., but at some point folks are desperate.

      —-
      Bertrand said he and his wife first moved to the apartment about a year ago because it was advertised as a “second-chance” apartment — meaning it was open to tenants who had an eviction, broken lease or other problematic history, provided they pay a nonrefundable “risk fee.”

      But problems soon emerged. Bertrand said for the first two months, he couldn’t wash dishes because the sink leaked so badly. He said management fixed it only after the ceiling caved in on his downstairs neighbor.

      —
      Carlton Manigault, a construction worker who lives at the complex with his girlfriend and their special needs child, was moving boxes into a car in preparation for a move. He said water service is frequently interrupted at the complex — at one point for two weeks, during which time he said some tenants resorted to boiling the complex’s pool water.

      Five-gallon jugs of water were visible on some porches and in windows.

      1. ** “ Bertrand said for the first two months, he couldn’t wash dishes because the sink leaked so badly. He said management fixed it only after the ceiling caved in on his downstairs neighbor.”

        ok, is just me or cannot Bertrand . . . oh, I dunno . . maybe buy/borrow a pair of channel lock pliers and . .
        wait for it . .
        wait . .
        for . .
        it . .

        FIX IT HIMSELF!??

        it’s not hard to do. not at all. many youtube videos can help. BUT, a person has to WANT to help themself, instead of perpetually sitting around, whining about “some program needs to be doin’ somepin”!
        The Bible verse “ the poor will be with us always “ is so true. meaning in context, that poor people are usually stupid.

        there’s nothing you can do about it.

        they were born stupid.

        they live stupid.

        and they die stupid

        1. Laziness is a better explanation. They just can’t be bothered. They expect someone else to fix their problems, though to be fair, many here tout one of the benefits of renting being that the landlord is supposed to take care of fixing things.

      2. A while back I was renting an apartment where the kitchen faucet started leaking pretty bad. At one point my landlady showed up with a big bag of wrenches and I was like, cool, a handywoman, she’s going to fix the leak. But then she just gripped the faucet with a big pair of vice grips and tried to force it shut. Needless to say, this not only didn’t fix the leak, it left big gouge marks on the faucet handle.

        Oh, and then there were roof leaks. And wall leaks (during heavy rains). Glad I’m not there any more.

  5. “…Guangzhou Holike Creative Home Co, a furniture maker, became the latest company to disclose losses linked to Evergrande…”

    Welcome aboard Guangzhou Holike Creative Home Co!

    Your going to be just one face of thousands sitting in one very large room. Might as well put on a new pot of tea. It’s going to be a long one.

    1. I see great start-up potential in a shoe company that makes footwear optimized for the stamping of little feet.

      1. “…shoe company that makes footwear optimized for the stamping of little feet….”

        Evergrande owes them money too.

        1. Riverdance = happy feet

          Stamping = crater rage – far more kinetic energy and shock absorption…calls for more robust design.

  6. ‘I have been looking everywhere, but it is really hard at the moment. There is nothing. I just pray that there’s a miracle, and we have enough, we pay the mortgage and there is enough left for hopefully a piece of bread for me’

    Rose, you gotta cut down on the avocado sandwiches. Here we go again: it was all peaches and cream, then…

    1. “‘Recently we’ve had such a period of low inflation that people thought inflation would always be low,’ said University of Auckland economist Susan St John. ‘We thought it was here to stay, but maybe it’s a golden age that’s come to an end.’”

      You can thank Jacinda Arden, Kiwiland’s “most popular PM ever” for that. Jacinda deserves her own line of “I did that!” stickers. Though I suppose that selling those in NZ is probably a crime.

      Also, per the article, Rose is a part time, minimum wage earner. Yet she has a mortgage. How does one say “strawberry picker” in Maori?

      1. “people thought inflation would always be low”

        Even highly respected(?) financial pundit Jim Rickards is falling into the same fallacy. He argued that money printing since 2008 hasn’t caused consumer price inflation so far, so why would it cause inflation now? Answer: The 2008 printing caused inflation but the inflation was exported to places like China, who bought US bonds and shipped us goods. Now the printed dollars are trapped stateside with no place to go except consumer prices.

        3. was exported to places like China, ”

          Yes for imported items but not medical, housing or schools which I guess can’t be imported .. not looking too good now .

  7. “‘I like to think of each apartment complex as a cash machine,’ wrote Shippy in his book Money Matters for Financial Freedom: The Fast Path to Abundance in Life and Business.

    What a piece of sh*t, but what a stellar example of the financialization of everything run amok. Of all the things the gold collar criminals at the Fed have done to make them lamppost-worthy, turning shelter – a basic human need – into a speculative asset class is the worst, IMO.

  8. ‘The buyer who is pissed off is then going to get a hold of his agent who will say, ‘I didn’t know anything,’ Franklin said. ‘And then they’re going to go to the other agent who represented the seller and they’re going to sue them too. They’re going to go after them for not disclosing. And now you have a disclosure problem.’”

    How do I sue these buyers’ parents for foisting such low-IQ degenerate gamblers on a society that’s already overstocked with them?

    1. “A fraud by concealment cause of action often fails when the buyer knew or should have known of the supposedly concealed fact. ”

      It’s almost as if there is a reason buyers typically have home inspections before finalizing that $600k purchase.

  9. ‘The inflation dragon is well and truly awake,’ said ANZ. Economists said such conditions hadn’t been seen in New Zealand since the 1970s and early 1980s – when Robert Muldoon was prime minister and inflation was out of control.”

    Who knew that creating trillions in fiat currency “stimulus” out of thin air could ever be inflationary?

  11. Oh dear…now we’re getting to the fun part where lenders discover the collateral they’ve clawed back isn’t anywhere near the original loan value. Got popcorn?

    China Evergrande seeks legal recourse after creditor Oaktree seized indebted developer’s Versailles-like project in Yuen Long

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-evergrande-seeks-legal-recourse-093000802.html

    China Evergrande Group’s Palace of Versailles-like project in Yuen Long – used as a collateral to restructure part of the company’s massive debt – was recently seized by creditor Oaktree Capital, which has appointed receivers for the asset.

    The Shenzhen-based developer, which is saddled with US$310 billion in total liabilities, said it “is seeking legal advice to protect the legal rights of the company”, according to a filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange published on Sunday. It said Oaktree notified the developer about the seizure and appointment of receivers on Wednesday.

    1. Evergrande owes $310 billion.
      This land in Yuen-Long is worth ~$1.1 billion.

      So, Evergrande plans to restructure based on collateral amounting to 1/3 of 1%? Which they don’t even own? And here we thought that a 10x-income mortgage in CA or Toronto is bad. 🙄 Who’s underwriting all this? Oh, right, Tether is.

      And for even more fun and games, this project is “farmland” right on the edge of the Mai Po Wetland Reserve. Evergrande is literally executing the Swampland in Florida scam.

  13. “‘I have been struggling to even think about it, the when, the where of the mortgage going up,” said Rose Kavapalu, a cleaner from Māngere. ‘I don’t want to think about it because it’s so mentally draining. The fear, it’s tiring.’”

    You & your fellow New Zealanders elected globalist Quislings who serve only a corrupt and venal .1% in the financial oligarchy, Rose. So things are only going to get more grim for the proles, Rose. Beyond their ability to monetize your existence, you have zero value to these sociopathic elites.

  14. While the DNC’s FBI Dobermans fulfill the same function as the Chekist secret police did for Lenin, they give the really big criminals a free pass by ramping up the Orwellian creepiness against an ever-growing list of “Enemies of the State.”

    FBI spent two years considering whether to buy clandestine spyware Phantom that can hack into ANY phone in the US

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10457361/FBI-spent-two-years-considering-used-spyware-hack-phone.html

    The FBI reportedly spent two years considering whether it should buy a spyware tool that would allow it to hack into any phone in the United States.

    US government agencies were contacted by the NSO Group, an Israelicyberweapons firm, multiple times between 2019 and last summer, according to the New York Times Magazine.

    1. Wow, leggy (post baby) Elsa Hosk’s click bait is worth a gander.
      *back to our regular programming…

      I remember when German chancellor Angela Merkel’s phone was hacked with Pegasus for months if not years before its discovery.

      1. State troopers within 100 miles of the Mexican border can also compel you to hand over your phone to have the data sucked out of it. Hot females can expect to have their “private” intimate pics shared back at the station house.

  15. Real Journalists are always the most ardent pom-pom shakers and lapdogs for globalist Quisling regimes, until they run afoul of their arbitrary and capricious edicts. Then their rage knows no bounds.

    ‘Doesn’t make sense’: Charlotte Bellis slams NZ quarantine lottery

    A New Zealand journalist who faces giving birth illegally in Afghanistan has a message for NZ Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern..

    Pregnant New Zealand journalist Charlotte Bellis says she hopes her situation can “move the dial” on the way New Zealand manages its hotel quarantine program.

    The former Al Jazeera journalist shared her story in the New Zealand Herald over the weekend, detailing her rejection from a Managed Isolation and Quarantine (MIQ) allocation despite expecting a child in Afghanistan – a place where unmarried pregnant women can face prison time.

  17. Globalist Quislings scurrying rodent-like to secret hideaways to escape the wrath of the awakened populace is a good start. Seeing them board their globalist oligarch puppet masters’ Gulfstreams and flee to some offshore hidey-hole to escape the pitchforks would be even better.

    Canadian truckers send Trudeau into hiding — and just might help end COVID mandates

    https://nypost.com/2022/01/30/canadian-truckers-send-trudeau-into-hiding-and-may-help-end-mandates/

    You’ve heard of Hidin’ Biden. Our neighbor to the north, my native land, just outdid that with Cut-and-Run Justin.

    With the pandemic in full swing, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urged Canadians to show support for those helping to keep food on their tables. “While many of us are working from home, there are others who aren’t able to do that — like the truck drivers who are working day and night to make sure our shelves are stocked. So when you can, please #ThankATrucker for everything they’re doing and help them however you can,” he tweeted March 31, 2020.

      1. Um….if you think WEF puppet Turdeau actually got any clot shots….well….I’ve got some real estate to sell ya……

        1. Absolutely. I wouldn’t be surprised if he fled the country. Yeah, hell be working from home … in Barbados. I also read that the truckers have raised enough money to stay in Ottawa for at least a year. That will put a crimp on the Canuck supply chain. That said he won’t end the mandate or resign, no matter how bad it gets. He’s probably on the phone with Klaus, getting his latest orders.

      2. I’m thinking it’s best during the Omicron wave to just not get tested. Many cases are milder than the common cold, and people act as though having covid is tantamount to contracting Ebola. What’s the value in unnecesarily freaking out your friends and relatives?

        2. to just not get tested

          If it were only that simple. My son was sent home from school last week for a Santa Ana induced runny nose and sneezing. He missed 1.5 days of school for a COVID negative test.

          1. In hindsight, I should have taken the 4 free antigen tests so he could go back to school the next day. Although from the decision tree, it looks like a molecular test still would have been necessary.

  18. Any white person who pulls the D lever is a self-hating idiot.

    Biden Fed nominee backed reparations for Black Americans for slavery, discrimination

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/biden-fed-nominee-lisa-cook-reparations

    President Biden’s nominee for governor of the Federal Reserve has said repeatedly that she supports reparations, the controversial proposed policy of financial compensation for Black Americans as a form of atonement for slavery and discrimination.

    “Everybody benefited from slavery. Everybody,” Lisa Cook, a Michigan State University professor, said in a September 2020 “EconTalk” podcast. “So, I think that we absolutely need some sort of reckoning with that. There are many proposals on the table to study the possibility of reparations, many economic proposals being put forward, and I think they should all be taken seriously.”

  19. Any thoughts on how many months or years it will take for risk assets to reach the bottom of their crater?

    1. The Financial Times
      Global inflation
      World’s largest wealth fund warns ‘permanent’ inflation will hit returns
      Equities and bonds to suffer as steep rise in rates becomes lasting feature of economy, says Norwegian oil fund boss
      Nicolai Tangen, chief executive of Norway’s oil fund
      Nicolai Tangen, chief executive of Norway’s $1.3tn oil fund, says he is seeing inflation ‘across the board, in more and more places’ © Odin Jaeger/Bloomberg
      Richard Milne and Robin Wigglesworth in Oslo yesterday

      The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund has warned that investors face years of low returns as the surge in inflation becomes a permanent feature of the global economy.

      Nicolai Tangen, chief executive of Norway’s $1.3tn oil fund, told the Financial Times he was “the team leader for team permanent” in the fierce debate over whether the jump in rates was transitory or a lasting threat.

      Consumer price inflation is running at its highest level for more than two decades in the world’s big industrial economies, in particular in the US, where the annual pace of price growth hit 7 per cent in December, up from just 0.1 per cent in May 2020.
      …

    2. Viewpoints | January 20, 2022
      Let The Wild Rumpus Begin*
      (Approaching the End of) The First U.S. Bubble Extravaganza: Housing, Equities, Bonds, and Commodities
      By Jeremy Grantham

      Executive Summary

      All 2-sigma equity bubbles in developed countries have broken back to trend. But before they did, a handful went on to become superbubbles of 3-sigma or greater: in the U.S. in 1929 and 2000 and in Japan in 1989. There were also superbubbles in housing in the U.S. in 2006 and Japan in 1989. All five of these superbubbles corrected all the way back to trend with much greater and longer pain than average.

      Today in the U.S. we are in the fourth superbubble of the last hundred years.

      Previous equity superbubbles had a series of distinct features that individually are rare and collectively are unique to these events. In each case, these shared characteristics have already occurred in this cycle. The checklist for a superbubble running through its phases is now complete and the wild rumpus can begin at any time.

      Introduction

      In a bubble, no one wants to hear the bear case. It is the worst kind of party-pooping. For bubbles, especially superbubbles where we are now, are often the most exhilarating financial experiences of a lifetime. I participated in a wonderful micro-cap fireworks display from 1968 to 1969, in which I made a small fortune (7 times the then full cost of a year at business school). My main stock, American Raceways, tripled while I was on vacation – $7 to $21 – then went to $100 by Christmas, only to lose it all even quicker by the following June, as almost all the fireworks exploded and crashed. This taught me a lesson, and it helped make me cautious. The experience also makes it easy for me to sympathize with the view that bearish advice in bubbles always comes from old fogeys who “just don’t get it,” because I received that old fogey advice back then and just didn’t listen. I doubt speculators in the current bubble will listen to me now; but giving this advice is my job and possibly the right thing to do. So, once more unto the breach, dear friends.
      …

  20. Here is one person’s POF of what to expect next …

    Covid War Ending – Gerald Celente | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog
    https://usawatchdog.com/covid-war-ending-gerald-celente/#more-25991

    (snip)

    “Renowned trends researcher and publisher of ‘The Trends Journal,’ Gerald Celente, boldly predicted back in April 2021, ‘We are going to start seeing a big anti-vax movement.’ He was spot on. Now, Celente has another bold prediction: ‘The Covid War is coming to an end.’ Celente explains, ‘On the virus, my forecast is the Covid war is going to end. Wind down, I should say significantly, by the end of March to mid-April. The new fear they are going to be selling after that is climate change.’

    “The wind down of Covid is really financial necessity. Celente says, ‘It’s killing businesses. New York City is a dead town. One after another you look at the places going out of business, and they are getting push back now. They can’t go on with this anymore. . . . They are killing the hospitality business, the restaurant business, they are all going down. They can’t go on like this, and they need the tax money. Politicians never work a day in their lives, so they need the money coming in.’

    “On the economic front, Celente predicted months ago that the Fed would be forced to raise rates. Now, the official inflation rate is 7%. The Fed is going to raise rates to fight inflation. Celente says, ‘Here is our forecast. This is a Paul Volker 2.0. You go back to 1982 and inflation was skyrocketing. They dramatically raised interest rates to stop it. (The Fed Funds Rate hit 20% under Volker’s plan.) So, they stopped inflation. They also dragged down the economy. . . . The markets are going to go down. . . . I don’t see a crash, at this point, in real estate.’

    “Celente also says oil could keep rising and inflation too. Celente says, ‘They are going to have to keep raising interest rates more and more to fight inflation, and if that keeps going, that’s when it will collapse. If inflation keeps going up and they have to raise rates much beyond the 2% mark, it’s over.’

    “Celente also gives his take on what is going on in Ukraine, and it’s not flattering to the Biden Administration. Celente talks about many other top trends as well.”

    2. “Wind down, I should say significantly, by the end of March to mid-April.”

      Six weeks ago, I predicted “Easter” (April 17). Celente probably looked at the same data I did — the case curve data from SA and UK. Omicron is so contagious that this curve can’t be flattened. SA looked like a 10-12 week spike. UK was similar. I predicted a slightly flattened curve for the US. I’m still not looking at daily case or hospitalization data, so I don’t know how it’s going here.

    3. he Covid War is coming to an end

      Daily new cases are in free fall. This farce should be over by the end of February. Then we can worry about how many of the jabbed will come down with VAIDS, ADE, etc.

      2. California news isn’t winding down on the Covid narrative , now pushing the new variant get your test BS.
        Plizer already announced a ” New Vaccine” that will be ready at the end of March.
        Now I don’t know what this “new vaccine” is suppose to be fighting , but its just keep the jabs , masks, discrimination against the unvaxxed going in one way or another.
        I’m suspecting that the original Covid is just dying out and its already killed the sector of elderly with co morbidities . A good deal more were killed by Fauci hospital protocols that killed people by lack of valid treatment , while cheap meds that cured Covid were obstructed and supressed.
        I’m suspecting that omicron is either the common cold or regular flu or a minor case of Covid.
        If they were targeting the elderly sector for the first group of elimination , they were sucessful regardless of what they died of.
        Going after age groups not under threat of death from Covid by unjustified mass vaccination is just wrong.
        So, they still can’t explain why deaths in 2020 were similar in count to previous years, except sucide deaths increase, but the regular flu disappeared.
        So, the death counts for 2021 are going to be bizarre and they won’t make sense in light of the vaccine roll out Insurance Companies reporting bizarre 40% increases in claims.
        IMHO these fraudsters reek their damage, than after the fact they throw out a little unavoidable truth as if they just discovered it , after months of false hype and damage.
        Just like when they throw out a bad drug, that FDA should not of approved, it takes them years to take the junk med off the market that no doubt was the by product of their rigged trials.
        Look, the fact for over a decade the third and forth cause of death is pharmaceuticals, that should tell you junk toxic meds are getting passed by the corrupted FDA. Big Pharmacy holding their own trials is absurd.
        So, in the final analysis I don’t want corrupted , profit motive crooks forcing me to take their poison, or the Government mandating for a criminal enterprise like Big Pharmacy.

        1. They are the case study for how well the “vaccines” work.

          The overnight parabolic increase in their numbers looks rather odd.

        2. Someone told me about that. Israel lifted the restrictions and then locked down again. Let’s see how often they can do that before they finally give up and just let it run.

    4. Celente is mega based. Check him out on youtube. He also runs an online ministry where you can get CV exemptions.

  21. “One way to cut expenses, he wrote, is to try to do all maintenance in-house rather than hire contractors and ‘to shop around and find the lowest prices for big-ticket items like appliances, lighting fixates, plumbing fixtures, and paint.’

    Pure genius.

        1. As someone once said, so you’ve come up with a money-making strategy that brings in money hand over fist, and you’re going to teach a bunch of people how to do it so they can compete with you?

    1. Good article. Is this uncharted territory? House prices and rents both out of reach for many? Love the suggestion to just buy and avoid renting. Even for people who qualify, we’re back to losing to cash offers from investors. So they can rent at top dollar. It’s a mess.

      1. “Kiara Age … single mother … $15 an hour working from home as a medical biller while also caring for her 1-year-old son, … 32 … who also has an 8-year-old daughter. “Rent is so high that I can’t afford anything.”

        Well, *that’s* certainly not uncharted territory. Are there any mothers out there who AREN’T single? I’m starting to wonder. And a single mom with a 1-year-old? Men can’t stick around even for two years?

        1. Lemme guess what the ragamuffins’ names be: Sharmaquavius (son) and La’Posha (daughter)? I be thinkin’ theys daddies be two different homies.

        2. And a single mom with a 1-year-old? Men can’t stick around even for two years?

          Nice, dependable, responsible guys with steady jobs don’t give her the tingles.

          1. That’s certainly been true for my daughter. The boring, beta-bux dudes with business degrees and stable employment don’t measure up to the budding rock band guitarists.

          2. And that’s why God gave her an awesome Dad– to guide her in making good choices in her life. Right??

        3. Men can’t stick around even for two years?

          A decent hardworking fellow certainly would. But a man like that doesn’t stand a chance with today’s “liberated” women.

          1. “A decent hardworking fellow certainly would.”

            This sort of guy has a lot to lose, and the odds are stacked against him. He’s better off paying for foodie dates with a possibility of a yum-yum for dessert.

  23. Make stealing $800 worth of anything a felony again, lose the bail reform, replace the Soros sponsored District Attorneys in Democrat run cities with someone who will prosecute crimes and it would do those cities more good than hiring 1000 new police officers.

      1. “replace the Soros sponsored District Attorneys”

        Nah. Fook them. Let them hoist with their own petard.

        1. The criminal element instinctively recognizes that when a community is sufficiently morally debased to elect D “leadership,” there will be no sense of public outrage, only indifference, when they step up the vibrancy.

          1. The cucks are removing statues and rewriting history in order to palliate the vibrancy; that’ll show ’em.

  25. 10 year German bunds rates turn positive today. First time in 3 years you would actually NOT automatically lose money lending money to Germany .

    1. would actually NOT automatically lose money lending money to Germany

      At least nominally. Factoring inflation in, you’re still losing your azz. It’s place your bets at the casino or get less that 1% interest.

    2. It’s complicated. For instance, if they had zero inflation and you loaned them dollars at zero percent when dollar inflation was running at six percent, that would be roughly equivalent to a six percent dollar-denominated return (ignoring exchange fees, taxes, etc. for simplicity).

  26. Mr. Banker,

    How long will it take for higher interest rates to clobber real-estate?

    Utah is the worst! I watched the market cool through late summer up until Thanksgiving with lots of price drops. Inventory was at it’s highest in 2021 at the end of September. Then inventory shrank hard into Christmas. Since January 1st, prices are ticking back up and everything is selling fast again. I think buyers are buying it all out of fear of rising rates. Dummies.

    Our landlord has raised our rent 35% and he wants us out by June. He wants his house back. On the bright side, there are a lot more rentals available (there was none this time last year) and I’m seeing on Trulia there’s many rentals dropping their rents. We’re debating between finding another rental for another year, buying at the fever-pitch-higher-rates-top-of-the-market, or moving far away… maybe Huntsville, AL (hubs works in defence/aerospace) or Kansas City, MO but I have no idea what it’s like to live there. We did go visit Parkvilke and Overland Park to shop for homes. Beautiful areas with lots of trees but not sure if that’s right for us…

    The increase in prices is shocking! A house pre-pandemic that sat on the market for months at $850K now goes in 2 days for $1.2m,1.3m or 1.4m. There are not good jobs in Utah. I don’t know anybody with a great high paying job. Most educated people I know have job dissatisfaction/frustration with no where to go and can’t grow their career. California buyers are the only buyers who can support this market. Tech jobs in Utah are mostly start-ups supported by venture capital and we all know in hard times those jobs don’t last when the VC rug gets pulled out from under the unicorn… Utah doesn’t have huge tech campuses like Microsoft, space park or Amgen. The token big tech company is Adobe with maybe 1500 employees in 2 buildings. Big deal… I was talking to a realtor who was bragging about Utah’s booming economy. I told him, “yeah, but it all revolves around construction.” The realtor went quiet, his eyes got big, and he said, “Oh. You’re riiight.” And I could hear his thoughts say, “Oh Sh!t, that’s not sustainable….” There is so much new construction in Utah on the west side of the valley between Nephi to Ogden and beyond spanning 150 miles or so. That doesn’tinclude massive expansion around St. George and elsewhere… I heard Danielle Dimartino-Booth say 3 years of demand was pulled into 1 year. So where does all the future demand come from? This chart shows people looking to move to Salt Lake City has drastically dropped..

    Click the “Historical Net Flow” tab, then select “Salt Lake City” from the drop down list
    https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/migration/

    Outside of supply vs demand driving prices scary high, buying in this market doesn’t make sense. It’s not logical or reasonable. Sure, prices could go higher but not by much. It seems like there’s more potential downside, not upside. It takes tiiiiime. The waiting is the hardest part. I was calm and patient through the fall but now I’m back to nervous sleepless nights and getting the tunnel vision mind-battle torture going again that says we’ll be house-less and priced out forever! Even worse, I’ll be forced to buy an extremely expensive house that I dont even like! This is torture! I remember the housing market grinded to a hault almost suddenly last time. It was like turning buyers off like a switch. Not sure if that will happen again… So many of our friends and family got burned – scorched!

    We can still afford to buy into this market but it’s so un-money-wise. Who buys a single stock for 1million$ knowing it could drop, maybe fiercely, by 20-40%?

    I’m caught in a sh!t storm struggling to figure out the best and smartest path to get out of this mess… 😬

    I hope all the research I do and coming to this site does more than reinforcing my confirmation bias. 🤔😆

    Who thinks by summer or fall this market cools down by alot or not?

    1. There is not a single house for sale in my extended neighborhood of 500+ houses. A house across the street should be going on the market soon, as the guy who owned it died late last year. It will be interesting to see how it’s priced and how quickly it sells.

      1. I’m working in Superior / Louisville again this week. The December 30th fire almost reached the building we are working in, and the reason I’m working there is doing renovation / salvage to keep as many existing fixtures as possible without replacing them.

        Exiting 36 onto McCaslin feels so bizarre, burned out buildings next door to businesses still open.

        I can’t imagine what the 1,000 families who’s houses got burned to the ground are facing RE: housing, kidz schoolz, etc…

        1. When I still had an office at Big Red’s Broomfield campus we would sometimes head out to McCaslin for lunch. There was an Italian place called Parma that we all liked.

    2. “Mr. Banker,

      “How long will it take for higher interest rates to clobber real-estate?”

      I, because I am a wonderful and caring person, am the one person that can remove that pesky negative term “un” from the most wonderful term “affordable”. I do this magical trick by loaning money (money that I do not have) to other people (who also do not have money). What I do have is access to money and I will happily (and will profitably) share this access to money with these people for a: 1.fee and 2. monthly rent of the money.

      The amount of the monthly rent for this money is what determines if the term “un” is removed from the term “unaffordable” or whether this pesky term remains. Please note: If the cost of renting this money rises then the amount of the “un” imbedded in the term “unaffordable” also rises. So as to your question: “How long will it take for higher interest rates to clobber real-estate?” the answer depends on how long will it take for the term “un” to be reattached to the term “affordable”.

      IMO it will not be long. It will not be IMMEDIATE because there is a lot of stupid still out there in the real estate buying world and it may take some time for those with an abundant amount of stupid to become fully aware. Exercise patience.

      1. Mr. Banker,
        You are an evil genius. The waaaaiiiiting is the hardest part of every trial… I’ve waited this long – might as well keep at it. My husband always puts pressure on me to JUST BUY A HOUSE!!

      1. I live next door to Highland. It’s true that I’ve seen slightly better priced listings in Highland and even better prices in Lehi. These cheaper (slightly cheaper) listings seem like the owner is finally leaving after not paying the bank for 2 years. Traverse Mountain in Lehi had a many foreclosures last time.

    4. Your post tells me you clearly want to move away from Utah.

      “Beautiful areas with lots of trees”
      Yeah, that would be almost everything back east. Trees are the norm, not the exception. Creeks and streams everywhere. No water crisis, no wildfires. I took a quick Zillow look at Huntsville. There’s so much range in price and variety that you would have no trouble finding a sweet spot, instead of being forced into some cookie-cutter development. It’s definitely worth a look.

      1. People who have lived there entire life in the arid west often find the east coast’s humidity to be oppressive.

          1. Please don’t move to Florida!

            It is a tough choice. The are aspects that seem positive, but I don’t know if I could handle the hotter/more humid half of the year. It’s one thing to go on vacation for a week and then leave, another to live there.

        2. 100 degree heat with 13% humidity during June in Salt Lake City is arguably worse that -10 for two weeks on end in Milwaukee in December. I spent a week in Utah last summer and it was so dry it caused me nosebleeds the entire time. I

      3. Oxide, you are perceptive. I might be bummed if we stay in Utah. Trees, creeks and streams fit the bill. The majestic Wasatch Mountains are beautiful but most of Utah is uglee. The inversion/smog is so gross and thick this time of year. Actually the smog was gross during parts of the summer too due to the fires. The mountains trap the bad air which sits on the valley floor until the wind blows. I can’t figure out why so many people are moving here… No cookie cutter home for us. Cookie cutter and apartments are going up everywhere on the west side of the valley. So much traffic too – no thank you.

        1. “So much traffic too – no thank you.”

          I was waiting for that. The I-15 is like a parking lot twice a day through SLC.

    5. I had to wait from 2005-2010 to buy my second home. It sucked, but if I had it to do over I would wait till 2012.

      1. We bought our 3rd home in 2010 after waiting 3 years. It was a foreclosure that corrected by 450K from the top. I should’ve waited until 2012 too. 2012 was the bottom for my neighborhood when a guy in my neighbor bought my same floorplan for 165K cheaper than I bought mine. He bought his home with all cash at the auction though. Cash was definitely king back then.

        1. “It was a foreclosure that corrected by 450K from the top.”

          That’s quite the haircut. Good thing the taxpayers stand ready to cover fed.gov and Wall street losses!

  27. “Lumber prices are at a 7-month high and are set to stay elevated on the back of 3 key trends, an EXPERT says”

    “Sanderson, CEO and managing partner of a firm that specializes in timberland investment, said lumber’s price will hover above $1,000 per thousand board feet through the second quarter of the year.”

    Oh wait…nevermind https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=LB

  28. Now they tell us.

    COVID vaccines don’t work for some people. For them, the pandemic remains terrifying.

    A study from National Jewish Health expands the kind of patients who are at risk for not developing antibodies following a coronavirus vaccine shot

    The doctors found that, out of a sample of more than 300 patients suffering from chronic illness and being treated at the hospital, about 20% did not have detectable antibodies two weeks or more following vaccination.

    Makes one wonder how many antibodies the other 80% had. Looks like the “vaccines” aren’t amazing after all.

      1. Of course it’s terrifying for them. If they watch or read the news, all they hear is that coming down with the coof is a death sentence. They see doctors on the evening news screaming at them to get jabbed or they will die. Reporters tell them that hospitals are bursting at the seams, though they omit the fact that a big chunk of the staff was fired for refusing the jab and that the staffing problem is easily solved. Almost no one on the evening news mentions ivermectin, and if they do it’s described as a veterinary only product and that you shouldn’t take it.

        The evening news doesn’t have reports about the elites ignoring the mask rules they enforce on the little people. Like the gala at the Met where AOC wore her infamous “eat the rich” dress. Of course, she and all of the rich people there were unmasked, unlike the hired help. Such bad optics, but it went straight into the memory hole.

        1. “straight into the memory hole”

          We remember.

          We’re writing down lists of names.

          This isn’t over. Globalists, kindly GFY 🙂

    1. Doesn’t that sound like some fake cover story on scrappy failure vaccines to blame the 20% patients for not producing antibodies.
      Oh no its not the vaccine, its the patients fault.
      You just can’t make this shit up.
      First its these vaccines are safe and effective. Than its you can still get the disease and transmit the disease. Now 20 % are failure people who just don’t produce the antibodies .
      And because of the mysterious World of Medicine the dumb ass public will swallow these con jobs.
      These are miserable profit motive fraudsters, selling snake oil toxic , injuries and killer lab rat expierment vaccines.
      The one positive thing coming out of Covid is the discovery of cheap safe drugs that cure respiratory problems , if the medicine system would only not obstruct and supressed their use.
      When I was much younger I remember Nixon announcing “The War on Cancer.” Basically that meant a lot of money from Government was going to be given to Medical research to conquer cancer.
      At the time I remember people saying that if they discovered a cure for cancer they would hide it.
      Fast forward 50 years and before our very eyes they obstructed proven cheap med cures for Covid , to push the fake toxic vaccines.
      Not saying that there aren’t some good doctors, or that they don’t have some good things in modern medicine that has been developed.

      2. Doesn’t that sound like some fake cover story

        What I see is that it’s probably worse than they will admit, but they can’t cover it up anymore. So instead of saying that 90% have no antibodies, they say 20%, so hey, you should still get jabbed!

  30. 1970 median wage bought 0.90oz of silver.
    2021 median wage buys 1.30 oz of silver.

    That’s some investment!🤣👏

    1. Saving money is a bad investment, but can be a good thing to do. Borrowing money is simply bad all around.

      In the mid 70s the average household owed 2,000 oz of silver and it would take 9.5 months of labor to pay off (without taxes). In 2021 it was 7,000 oz and would take 24 months of labor.

  31. Line of the day from that NZ article:

    “But that’s why central banks are independent – to make the tough decisions for the long-term health of the economy.”

    LOL!!

    1. So, do these independent bankers make their tough decisions while at Davos, or do they wait until the come home?

  33. More airline flight are routes being permanently cancelled “because of covid”

    From CBS Denver:

    Across the nation, airlines are cutting flights due to COVID-19 concerns and Denver International Airport is one of the airports most impacted.

    In the first quarter, airlines dropped more than 300 flights from DIA, according to the Denver Business Journal.

    Gee, that couldn’t possibly be due to a permanent shortage of pilots, whose ranks were thinned by being fired for refusing the jab, or by being permanently injured (or worse) by the jab.

    1. It’s really difficult to convince many of those who have had been on the wrong side of a firearm during the commission of a violent crime. The helplessness, if not shear terror, is difficult to overcome.

  37. The video shows the little thug who did the smashing had good wheels for the getaway after he had a gun pointed at him.

    Armed Jewelry Store Owner Thwarts Smash-and-Grab Gang

    By Dan Lyman
    Monday, January 31, 2022

    Around five suspects, some carrying weapons, approached the shop as owner Usman Bhatti stood outside in the public walkway, as surveillance footage shows.

    One of the suspects rushed inside and began smashing a display case with a crowbar as Bhatti ran in to confront him.

    During the melee, Bhatti drew a firearm as the suspect brandished the crowbar at him.

    “The male suspect ran away toward the food court area of the mall,” San Bruno Police explained in a statement. “Another male suspect from the group that was standing near the entrance to the store then pulled out a gun and pointed it at the store owner.”

    “The store owner raised his own firearm and pointed it at the male suspect with the gun. The male suspect with the gun and the other males in the group turned and ran away towards the JC Penny department store.”

    No firearms were discharged during the altercation.

    “I’m not trying to be a hero or a macho man… It just happened very quick and I had no choice,” Bhatti, a concealed carry permit holder, told KTVU.

    Police say they are seeking three black males and two males of “unknown race,” all of whom were pictured wearing face masks at the time of the crime.

    https://www.ktvu.com/news/legally-armed-jewelry-store-owner-thwarts-smash-and-grab-robbery-attempt-in-san-bruno

    1. Good news: UK pull health care worker mandate to take the jab .
      Bad news: Canada Prime Minister sending SWAT teams to deal with Truckers, in spite of their peacefulness.

      2. The only thing that I heard was that the Ottawa mayor was “losing patience” with protestors, much as Brandon’s patience “wore thin” with the unjabbed.

        1. The only thing that I heard was that the Ottawa mayor was “losing patience” with protestors,
          None has speculated on how patient residents of Ottawa will be after the town food shelves go empty.

    2. “While previous studies have estimated that universal health care would cost around $350 billion, the AP noted that California is currently on pace to pay over $500 billion in health care this year.”

      The current providers are charging patient’s insurance $50 for a couple of Tylenol tablets, etc., and they’re happy with this arrangement.

    1. The Financial Times
      US equities
      US stock markets endure worst January since global financial crisis
      S&P 500 ends month down 5.3% as investors recoil over prospect of rising interest rates
      Tensions over Ukraine, slowing corporate earnings and the prospect of aggressive action by the Federal Reserve drove a weak start to 2022 © Bloomberg
      Nicholas Megaw in New York and George Steer in London yesterday

      The US stock market has suffered its worst start to the year since the global financial crisis, as the threat of rising interest rates, slowing corporate earnings growth and geopolitical tensions sent stocks tumbling across the board.

      The S&P 500 index fell 5.3 per cent in January, its biggest monthly decline since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020 and the weakest January since the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009.

      The blue-chip benchmark had been on track for an even poorer performance — last week it was nearing its worst January on record — until a 4 per cent recovery in the final two trading days of the month on Friday and Monday.
      …

  44. The only thing that I heard was that the Ottawa mayor was “losing patience” with protestors,
    None has speculated on how patient residents of Ottawa will be after the town food shelves go empty.

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