thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

The Late Stages Of A Speculative Fever

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Redfin economists expect the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to continue to rise steadily to 3.9% over the course of the year. For the four-week period ending January 30, the monthly mortgage payment on the median asking price was up 23% from a year earlier to an all-time high of $1,877.”

“‘A shift to an equity-centric market is already underway, and as of the third quarter of last year, borrowers were pulling more cash out of their homes than they had in 14 years,’ said Andy Walden, vice president of strategy with Black Knight.”

“For new homes in December, there was six months of supply and inventory was up 34.8%.”

“Nearly 70% of homes sold in Ada County were going over asking in May, with an average of $44,075 over the listing price. The amount over listing had dropped by December, with houses on average going for $16,487 over asking. Boise Regional Realtors noted that house sales appear to be slowing down in Ada County – and more homes are now on the market. At the end of December, there were 582 homes available, more than 75% more than in December 2020. A total of 10,855 home sales were recorded last year, an 11.8% drop from 2020 and the lowest number of total annual home sales for Ada County since 2017.”

“Now listed for $100 million: Great Island, a roughly 60-acre private spread in Connecticut. Great Island originally listed for $175 million in 2016.”

“Purchased for $915,000 in November of 2016, the one-bedroom cottage at 4353 17th Street, which sits above the Castro in Corona Heights, returned to the market priced at $998,000 in October of 2020. And the re-sale of 4353 17th Street has now closed escrow with a contract price of $858,000, which is officially ‘over asking!’ according to all industry stats and aggregate reports but 6.2 percent below its 2016 value on an apples-to-apples basis.”

“A recent study by San Francisco city government researchers found 1 in 10 of the city’s condos and homes are sitting empty. For example, at the corner of Third Avenue and Lincoln Way, an entire building sits empty. It’s been boarded up for quite a while, enough time for neighbors to wonder what’s ever going to be done with it. San Francisco Supervisor Dean Preston said it’s a prime example of a persistent problem in the city. ‘We see in a lot of neighborhoods, buildings that have just been abandoned,’ he said. ‘They sit vacant not just for a year or two years, sometimes five, ten years or more.'”

“Landlords in New York City lodged 895 eviction filings the week of Jan. 16, the first week after the moratorium lifted. Clarence Hamer said he is owed tens of thousands of dollars that he will never get back. Hamer lives upstate and bought the Brownsville property as his first-ever real estate investment, but now he plans to sell. ‘I’m not going to be a landlord in the city of New York. I can’t. I’m just defeated,’ he said. ‘The plan was to give it to my kids, but I’m so far behind in mortgage payments that I’m forced to sell in order to recoup any type of loss.'”

“Canada’s federal banking regulator described the housing market as being in the late stages of a ‘speculative fever,’ and warned that prices could plunge by as much as 20 per cent in some markets. A ‘herd mentality’ kicked in as prices steadily rose; and the Bank of Canada dropped its benchmark lending rate to effectively zero. As those forces recede, housing markets will cool, and some might even correct, Peter Routledge said. ‘In some markets where you had a really rapid increase in prices, you could see a fall of 10 (per cent), 20 per cent, even,’ Routledge said. ‘But that will just be a return back to a little bit more sanity after a sudden buildup in prices.'”

“Toronto and Vancouver, the country’s priciest markets, have weathered similar declines before. ‘You’re talking peak-to-trough declines of 20 per cent,’ in those cities between 2015 and 2017, he said. ‘So we can absorb that volatility.’ The frenzy has caused Toronto-like price increases in places such as Ottawa, Montreal, and Moncton, New Brunswick. However, investors’ interest in the housing market likely is about to decline. ‘With rates going up, with the general recognition that, ‘Boy, housing is pretty fully valued,’ I’m not sure your expected return in the housing sector … I think a smart investor would think twice and maybe look at other outlets,’ he said.”

“Selling prices and sales volumes for Auckland residential properties dropped last month. ‘New listings for the month at 1135 were strong, and we ended the month with 3827 properties on our books, giving buyers a level of choice not seen for 15 months,’ added Barfoot & Thompson managing director Peter Thompson.”

“The median house price in New South Wales’ capital city is now $1.5 million, according to the latest figures. Just one year earlier, in December 2020, the median price was $1 million. Skyrocketing values have meant the deposit required to buy (with a 20 per cent deposit) has jumped from $209,500, to $304,000. Some may prefer to ‘sit and hold’ and mortgage broker Aaron Christie-David said this was an option but it wasn’t a strategy because it was not guaranteed. ‘We are still expecting to see property prices grow 10 to 12 per cent in some markets,’ he said. Even if prices did start to fall, the market would have peaked anyway and any fall will come off higher prices anyway.”

“China Evergrande Group will continue with efforts to sell a plot of undeveloped land in Hong Kong even after the appointment of a receiver by a creditor, a person with direct knowledge of the matter said. The developer has been struggling to repay creditors, suppliers and investors in wealth management products. Nearly $20 billion of its international bonds are now deemed to be in default.”

“Negative yields might be a thing of the past if ever-bolder market bets on monetary policy normalization pay out. The world’s enormous pool of negative-yielding debt shrank by a record 20% in just a day. Sizzling inflation is pushing central banks to scrap extreme measures. ‘Every single central bank last year resisted the notion that inflation was anything other than fleetingly transitory, and now one by one they are being forced to try and play catch up,’ said Stephen Miller, an investment consultant at GSFM, a unit of Canada’s CI Financial Corp. ‘They underestimated what pedal-to-the-metal stimulus can do to inflation and now bond markets are paying the price.'”

“Lynn Worton is petrified she will be unable to pay her bills and that she will be driven out of her home. The part-time supermarket worker, whose monthly wage is less than the energy price hike, said the Chancellor’s support for families in the face of rising energy bills was not enough. ‘Money needs to go up same as everything else, wages, benefits,’ said Ms Worton, from Worthing in West Sussex. ‘It needs to rise to what people are paying out. It’s not just the energy bills, is it? It’s petrol, it’s food, it’s everything.'”

“Ms Worton has recently moved into a new home from temporary accommodation after her landlord sold her previous property. Upon hearing annual bills for a typical household will go up by £693, Ms Worton said: ‘Well, it’s a joke. I work part-time and I get between £500 and £600 a month. It’s obviously worrying. I’ve had to choose between eating and heating [before], same as a lot of people. Do you put the heating on or do you eat? There’s not enough money to do both.’ To cope in cold weather, she relies on ‘lots of blankets, lots of layers, lots of socks.'”

Related Posts
This Post Has 111 Comments

  1. ‘I’ve had to choose between eating and heating [before], same as a lot of people. Do you put the heating on or do you eat? There’s not enough money to do both.’ To cope in cold weather, she relies on ‘lots of blankets, lots of layers, lots of socks’

    Well it was cheaper than renting Lynn. Seems the central bankers have put you in a pickle.

    2. I read the article and nowhere did it say that Lynn Worton bought a dwelling. Looks like she was renting the entire time. LL sold the house under her, she moved to a temp apartment, and then moved to another rental unit. Her real issue is that she only works part-time. She needs to work more hours, if she can. Actually she’d be best off in a tower block where she can mooch heat from surrounding units.

      Either way, the central banks screwed her up, with heat and rent.

      1. She needs to work more hours

        I thought her message was clear, someone needs to give her the extra money.

        1. Nat Gas prices in the UK have skyrocketed, no doubt because of “green” energy policies.

          And if you have a car, you’d better duck! A gallon of gas in the UK is almost $9 USD

          1. A gallon of gas in the UK is almost $9 USD
            On the bright side, $9.00 a gallon probably keeps a lot of the “riff Raft” of the Roads so the truly gifted have less traffic to deal with.

        3. “She needs to work more hours”

          Not to mention the supermarket is heated and has food.
          Deli scraps make a tasty Garbage Plate YUMMMM !

          1. Not to mention the supermarket is heated and has food.

            It’s the UK, so don’t be too sure of that.

          2. the supermarket is heated

            Which is a valid point. When I returned to the office, I went back to the work-week programming on my thermostat and saved $$ on my heat and A/C bills.

      2. “Her real issue is that she only works part-time.”

        She needs a baby, a mulatto baby; the gravy will runneth over!

  2. ‘Toronto and Vancouver, the country’s priciest markets, have weathered similar declines before. ‘You’re talking peak-to-trough declines of 20 per cent,’ in those cities between 2015 and 2017′

    Wa?

    ‘So we can absorb that volatility’

    Who is this ‘we’ Peter?

    ‘The frenzy has caused Toronto-like price increases in places such as Ottawa, Montreal, and Moncton, New Brunswick’

    This is where they fooked up, letting it spread to every sh$thole in K-da.

    ‘With rates going up, with the general recognition that, ‘Boy, housing is pretty fully valued,’ I’m not sure your expected return in the housing sector … I think a smart investor would think twice and maybe look at other outlets’

    Peter, yer breaking up, I didn’t catch the part about expected return.

    1. “Who is this ‘we’ Peter?”

      He’s got a frog in his pocket.

      I still haven’t figured out if these brain-dead asswipes making grand pronouncements like these are invoking the old “we’re all in this together” scam or just attempting to provide cover for their previous lies while furiously backpedalling.

      Salt Lake City, UT Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY On Soaring Vacancies As Utah Economy Dries Up

      https://www.movoto.com/ut/84101/market-trends/

      As a noted economist explained, “The number one cause of personal bankruptcy in the US is the 15 and 30 year mortgage.”

  3. ‘Some may prefer to ‘sit and hold’ and mortgage broker Aaron Christie-David said this was an option but it wasn’t a strategy because it was not guaranteed’

    Well it is a strategy Aaron, guaranteed or not.

    ‘Even if prices did start to fall, the market would have peaked anyway and any fall will come off higher prices anyway’

    Hmmm…

  4. ‘The world’s enormous pool of negative-yielding debt shrank by a record 20% in just a day’

    Is that a lot? What exactly is shrank? Can’t they just hold to maturity and…oh wait.

    1. The 1966 through 1982 experience offers a cautionary example of why buy-and-HODL doesn’t always work out very well with respect to longterm sovereign bonds. Anyone who bought longterm bonds (e.g. 30 year Treasurys) in 1966 and held on through 1982 could have continuously lost money for 16 years, and that’s just considering the nominal wealth effect of rising bond yields, before taking into account the further loss in real dollar terms due to double digit inflation during the 1970s.

      This time is different, because recent long-term bond yields went far below their levels in the early 1960s due to the protracted period of extraordinary Quantitative Easing stimulus going back to 2009. The unwind is going to be interesting, and could get a bit wild at times.

      1. Here’s another way to make my point:

        Buy-the-dip arbitrage doesn’t work for dips that play out over decades, because in the long run we are all dead, and you will never get your money back if it takes sixty years to return to the price level when you tried to buy the dip.

    2. “What exactly is shrank?”

      I would guess they are referring to total market value.

      Is a 20 percent loss in one day alot?

      1. After closely reading the relevant part of the article, it seems like they are saying the total worldwide nominal value of debt with a negative yield dropped by 20% in one day, due to a sudden one-day adjustment of yields from negative to positive for that share of the total value. The total market value clearly dropped as well, but they didn’t get into that.

  5. ‘China Evergrande Group will continue with efforts to sell a plot of undeveloped land in Hong Kong even after the appointment of a receiver by a creditor’

    It’s mine and Ima gonna sell it.

    Not it’s mine and IMA gonna sell it.

    ‘Nearly $20 billion of its international bonds are now deemed to be in default’

    I think that’s a lot too. Remember when these clowns thought pooh bear wouldn’t let anyone default?

    Life was fun
    Life was great
    Til I made my big mistake
    Oh no it’ll never happen to me
    Life was short
    And life was sweet
    I was thinking as I hit the street
    I could hardly believe
    I could scarcely conceive
    But I had gone out the window
    I had gone out the window
    I had gone out the window
    She was fine
    She looked great
    And so we made our big mistake
    I swear I swear I swear
    It’d never happen to her
    But the pavement knocked her head around
    When she hit the solid concrete ground
    From thirty flights above
    And she was thirty something loving nothing
    Gone out the window
    She had gone out the window
    She had gone out the window
    Oh, catch me if I’m falling
    Catch me if I’m calling
    He was smart he was wise
    He’d profoundly philosophize
    Empathy for all humanity
    ’til one day by an open window
    There’s a note that read
    I’ve gone out the window – I’m dead
    He said yes to life for all of his life
    But then one day he said no
    I gotta go out the window
    We all go out the window
    Catch me i am falling
    Catch me I am calling
    Catch me we are falling
    Catch me we are calling

  6. ‘Electric vehicle startups whose valuations soared after reverse mergers are facing greater scrutiny as public companies, triggering turmoil in their boardrooms.’

    ‘With no revenue but big ambitions, a dozen or more startups went public via SPACs before the market cooled off in January. A handful have triggered federal investigations into how they promoted themselves ahead of their respective mergers, including Lordstown Motors Corp. and Canoo Inc.’

    ‘When former BMW AG executive Carsten Breitfeld moved to Los Angeles in 2019 to take over as CEO of Faraday Future, he took up residence in a multimillion-dollar mansion overlooking the Pacific Ocean, according to the founder Jia Yueting’s bankruptcy filings.’

    ‘It was one of at least three Jia purchased to be used as corporate housing, some with money borrowed from Faraday and his other companies in China, the filings show. The homes were used for parties, hosting out-of-town guests, and even as collateral for loans, The Verge has reported.’

    ‘Faraday’s use of the homes — which are owned by a limited liability company created by Jia — was one of many decisions the company scrutinized during its investigation. The startup said Tuesday that it will “continue investigative and remedial work, including regarding whether inaccurate disclosures were made relating to its corporate housing arrangements and its related party disclosures.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/ev-startups-are-wilting-in-harsh-light-of-public-eye/ar-AATpEAf

    1. it is amazing how many of these companies that raise so many $s are just wasting the cash.

      I suspect that the EV start ups are as wasteful as biotech startups. In Seattle, if you have a PhD, you are making a ton of $s without having to show progress for years.

      1. as wasteful as biotech startups

        By “wasteful” you must mean patents, research, preclinical and clinical studies. Without which, and sometimes despite which, you get dangerous products like the COVID jabs. The economics, risk/reward profile and timelines for biotech companies is unlike any other. There are also thing called milestones you apparently aren’t aware of.

  7. Today is Friday, February 4th and Joe Biden is not the legitimately elected president of the United States.

    The 2020 election was stolen.

      2. addicted to fear,
        According to Dr. Campbell on YT yesterday Denmark lifted all restriction and essentially said “the Pandemic is over” and we just need to learn to live with Covid.
        NZ is saying they will start letting their own citizens in soon and they might open the borders for Tourists in October

        1. Once NZ starts reopening they will have a huge outbreak, since they have no herd immunity due to being locked down for two years. Then Arden will lock everything down again, and the Kiwis, who are addicted to fear, will comply.

          2. NZ is mostly jabbed, so they will get some symptom reduction from that. But yeah, they’re going to get huge #s of cases, probably all at once. Only this time, once it gets in, they will never be able to lock it out. Then they will get to play the mask-on mask-off game until everyone eventually gets exposed, just as we are.

            The WHO is playing the fear game again:

            “Dr. Hans Kluge said that countries have a “singular opportunity to take control of” transmission…Kluge said the period of “higher protection” should be seen as a “cease-fire” that could bring the region “enduring peace” on the condition that it continues to vaccinate and boost,…”

            In other words, when everyone is finally infected and immune, we must use the summer of peace as the singular opportunity to jab another 3 billion people. And boost ourselves to death. Oh, EFF OFF. Trump was correct to get out of the WHO. They have done nothing except screw up from Day 1.

            https://www.foxnews.com/health/who-official-sees-plausible-endgame-covid-19 <– it's a FOX source, but the article is from the commie Associated Press, so take with grain of salt.

          3. NZ is mostly jabbed, so they will get some symptom reduction from that.

            Like ADE, VAIDS and Vaccine Enhanced Immune Escape?

            I know, “symptom reduction” is all the Narrative has left, so they’re gonna repeat it as long as they can.

          4. Once NZ starts reopening they will have a huge outbreak, since they have no herd immunity due to being locked down for two years. Then Arden will lock everything down again, and the Kiwis, who are addicted to fear, will comply.

            You read like a fearmonger.

          5. “symptom reduction”

            Do you know of a control group for that brilliant assertion? Neither do I.

            The narrative has a lot left! They have a legacy of lies, contradictions, abusive behavior, grift, plus having inflicted countless injuries and deaths.

          6. You read like a fearmonger.

            Not at all. I’m saying that they’ll have to deal with the outbreak, which isn’t a big deal, or they can be locked down forever. And since that are addicted to fear, the people of NZ will choose endless lockdowns.

    2. Lets do the Covid Jerk again……….

      Seriously, these head monkey beasts of the human bee hive are really getting oblivious about their grand schemes.

      Get people to go against their own self interest , over a invisible enemy, they determine by fake tests, than inject them with fake vaccines, while the tax coffers are looted , so the sheep pay for this attack.
      Than when it becomes obvious that the injections don’t work, tell them it reduces symptoms and they would of died absent the shot, but you need more boosters because a new variant has emerged.

      Than announce that they have a “New Vaccine”, they developed in three months , when it usually takes 12 years, and repeat the cycle.

      All the while , have fraud/fear news censor and obstruct any facts , dispute, or cheap drugs that actually cure the respiratory diseases. Block out the entire Scientific community that doesn’t agree with the fake narratives, claiming its disinformation.

      Lock down people and make them wear masks that obstruct their breathing , that is useless in combating airborne diseases. Destroy small and medium business, to consolidate more power and revenue to the Corporate Monopolies.
      Isolate people from their family, peers and make a rule you have to be six feet apart because someone might have the invisible enemy Covid.

      Than have the Puppet President, who got in by a rigged election, mandate you loose your jobs, if you don’t take the jab. Also , have the Puppet President attack over 50 % of population saying they are domestic terrorists and white racist, and the enemy unvaccinated need to be punished or go to camps.
      Out of tax dollars bribe the Hospital system that they will get 100k if they diagnose Covid, and have a Covid death by no valid treatment. Also have the same guy who funded the bio weapon in China be the spokesman for the Nation on the solutions for the Panademic , being Dr Fauci, claiming he’s the one face of Science.

      Only under mass psychosis could you pull off such a ridicules insane assault on the globe.

      And when the fraudulent narratives start to break down, just come up with the next enemy they contrive.
      I’m sorry but these Entities are going for taking over, and they are using Medical Fraud and Tyranny to harm, kill, injure, bankrupt, and tear down current systems for their One World order Dictorship.

      1. Get people to go against their own self interest

        As many have said on this blog: a disease so deadly you need a test to know if you have it, and a vaccine so safe and effective that you will be threatened and coerced to take it.

        1. Yep. And wait until the Communist in US find out these Entities have no intentions of giving them a Universal income or create equity for all.

          Look, its all about tricker fraud to achieve the objectives. The Globlist one percent want to own everything, have all the marbles, while they enslave the 99%. And its appears they want to kill off a certain percentage of the population .

          The 99% don’t need no stinking 1% trying to take their life, liberty and pursuit of happiness on this planet. These Entities that are small in numbers have always been the forces behind screwing it up for the Majority.
          This is the opportunity to take these psychopaths out once and for all, as they are obvious now.

          The problem is that Puppet in the White House has the command of the US Military , by that rigged election.
          So anyway I guess the people have to somehow stop them.

          1. Yep. And wait until the Communist in US find out these Entities have no intentions of giving them a Universal income or create equity for all.

            As Deplorable has said, they will be given a pick and a shovel and will be told to get to work.

          2. have no intentions of giving them a Universal income or create equity for all.

            WTF are you getting this from? Didn’t you see the bills going through Congress? Build back better, voting rights, pack the Court, UBI, child tax credit, unending unemployment and eviction moratoriums, and all the rest. I see nothing BUT intention to take the stuff that we were “fortunate” to have, pay us to stay home, and have the work done by machines and immigrant serfs.

          5. I believe the discussion was about “intention.”

            If they couldn’t pass it, they weren’t trying very hard. There won’t be UBI, and for a simple reason: MMT causes runaway inflation. Just giving the unemployed an extra $500 a week for a few months caused inflation.

            And the automation required to allow everyone to lay flat and still have toys and food is still so far off that any proposed date is nebulous. Self driving cars were supposed to be the norm by now, with self driving Ubers everywhere. Hasn’t happened.

          6. I believe the discussion was about “intention.”
            I believe all this UBI etc. is a trial balloon to see who will salute. A whole lot of people saluted. The thought has now been firmly planted in everyone’s mind that “free money” is possible and they are owed it. Think Repatriations as an example. Sounds incredibly stupid to me, but Evanston, IL and possible others are actually paying repatriations. Pretty much you have 2 senators delaying a lot of the bills. And the supreme court, well, as I see it you had 3 Justices that said a random unelected Govt. Agency can tell you what you can do with your rental properties. To me that is the most mind blowing part of this whole thing. What’s gonna happen when 5 justices think that way.

          7. I believe all this UBI etc. is a trial balloon to see who will salute.

            The Free Sh!t Army saluted. But as inflation gets worse and worse, even many D lever pullers understand that there is no free money.

      3. Good stuff. And yet sad. So many zombies don’t see the train running head first into them.

        The world 10 years from now will resemble nothing like it does now because of their complacency.

        They all just want to go back to sportsball, netflix and other dopamine hits and stick their heads in the sand.

        The party is ending folks. Get right with God. We’re in for a ride like we never expected.

        Let’s Go Brandeau!

  10. Anytime someone mentions the website Reddit, posting on Reddit, or their Reddit “karma score” the first things I think of are obesity, celibacy, and people who are seldom, if ever, outside in natural sunlight.

    “They’re not sending their best”

      1. Probably more like a buy 2 get 1 free deal. The Reddit poster and the Reddit poster’s wife pay, and the wife’s boyfriend gets one for free.

  11. “as of the third quarter of last year, borrowers were pulling more cash out of their homes than they had in 14 years”
    The last crash was turbo-charged due to all the negative equity from Cash outs. Not sure this is “gonna” end well for a lot these people. FWIW: Oil is over $92/barrel. First time since 2014.

      2. “gas prices now being a ‘second mortgage’ for drivers.”

        They’re not down with “The Biden Plan”?

        https://twitter.com/SecGranholm/status/1456647127862374400?s=20&t=nleTrD7mo5bwi6KANpydEw

        Biden Energy Sec. Granholm laughs at question about boosting oil production: ‘That is hilarious’

        By Peter Hasson FOX Business
        November 5, 2021

        Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm on Friday laughed at a question about boosting America’s domestic oil production, calling it “hilarious.”

        https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/biden-energy-sec-granholm-laughs-boosting-oil-hilarious

        3. Biden Energy Sec. Granholm laughs at question about boosting oil production:
          According to the January Jobs report there was a reduction in Mining and logging payrolls of 4,000.
          Bloomberg says fracking is booming.
          The Wall Street Journal says the end of the Shale boon (Fracking) is here.
          Someone is wrong because I don’t see how all this could be happening at the same time.

          1. reduction in Mining and logging payrolls of 4,000.

            According to the bls the number is “preliminary” and seasonally adjusted. BTW, numbers exactly the same as November. 4,000 isn’t that big a percentage to draw conclusions from.

            Besides, who needs logs when railcars of lumber are just virtual trading cards in the Everything Casino.

      4. There was an article in K-da about gas prices now being a ‘second mortgage’ for drivers.

        Lots of big, brand new $120,000 diesel trucks in Canada, purchased on credit of course.

        1. Every time I see one of those (with lift kit and mud tires, naturally), I mentally picture a gnome with a pitchfork feeding $100 bills into a blast furnace.

          1. I’ve been watching those “builds” for years on forums, and most of them follow the same path. Guy borrows money for a truck he can’t afford. Then he borrows more money for a bunch of aftermarket parts he can’t afford. Then he posts a bunch of pics of the whole build process, with people ooohhhing and aaahhhing about how “sick” it is. In a matter of months after it is completed, one of two things happens:

            a) He’s “putting it back to stock” and selling off the aftermarket parts for some cash, then the truck is for sale shortly thereafter because he’s “decided to go a different route.”

            b) The whole truck is for sale because either he’s “decided to go a different route” or “wife says sell” or “divorce forces sale.”

          2. “divorce forces sale.”

            Guy buys a marriage. Buyer’s remorse. Guy buys a truck to plaster over. It doesn’t work.

          3. I’m in flyover country, and for young men an $80k, 3/4 or 1-ton turbo diesel pickup truck is a birth rite of manhood, and these are men who work with their back and hands for a living. Even the Latino males are catching the bug!

          4. turbo diesel pickup truck is a birth rite of manhood

            Another rite of passage is the repo man when the economy tanks and there are no construction gigs anywhere.

    1. mask mandate

      Some nice charts showing that masks don’t do sh!t.

      after peak covid season
      comes peak “claim your NPI worked” season. but it’s not true. it’s just opportunistic rain dances.

      “accept no claims of NPI efficacy without a control group.”

      1. Denver is lifting the mask mandate today.

        CCP Flu pearl clutchers will be wearing masks while driving alone for the rest of their lives, because The Science.

  13. “A total of 10,855 home sales were recorded last year, an 11.8% drop from 2020 and the lowest number of total annual home sales for Ada County since 2017.”

    I’m waiting for the “I spent $1 million for a tract home in Boise” articles to start popping up any day now…

      1. I’ve gone to some skydiving events in Star, ID, and 10-yrs ago Star was out in the middle of nowhere. Now, even way out there a 3/2 spec rancher commands $400k plus!

      2. I’ll say Garden City is a shithole, but the whole of Boise, Meridian, Nampa, Caldwell, etc, is very nice, except for all the coastal-state equity locusts having bid up prices to nosebleed soon-to-crash levels.

  14. The article on the equity-centric market has a LOT of data in it. Key stats:

    2019-2020 YOY prices: up 6%
    2020-2021 YOY prices: up 15%

    Profit from home sales (if I did the math right):
    Pre-2020: $55,000 profit
    2020: $65,000 profit
    2021: $94,000 profit.

    “Equity-rich” = house is worth at least double the mortgage owed.
    End of 2020: 30% of houses are equity rich.
    End of 2021: 42% of homes are equity-rich, mostly in the West.

    Tappable equity:
    2020: $6.3 trillion
    2021: $9.9 trillion
    Average tappable equity: $185K.

    “So what does that mean for the overall economy? A lot of potential spending power, should consumers decide to use all that wealth. …
    “Borrowers were pulling more cash out of their homes than they had in 14 years,”…
    The only thing that might stand in the way of some homeowners tapping all that wealth, outside of selling their homes, is rising mortgage rates. ”
    ———————-

    No wonder the cash-out refi folks are getting aggressive. They are still coming after me months after I refi’d. Just wait until this pandemic is over. I think we’re going to see a lot more tapping, for cars, vacays, and bar-hopping boob jobs.

    The survey of Millenials shows them bemoaning their house values going *down*. So who are these 42% who have all these trillions in equity to tap? Boomer grandmas with crumbling paid-off houses from the 1970s, I guess. Now would be a *really* good time to become an estate lawyer. The inheritance fights are going to be epic.

    1. “So who are these 42% who have all these trillions in equity to tap?”

      They are the neighbors who just happen to live near homes that were sold last year at enormous markups due to insane bidding wars.

      Ignorant pukes who “win” the house by becoming the highest bidder sets the values for the comps. PFM at work.

      1. In the magical world of Price equals Value the ignorant few can create enormous amounts of wealth for the many. And these ignorant pukes can perform this magical trick by increasing prices (thus creating values) without using any of his own money.

        The greater the ignorance the higher the price thus the greater the amount of wealth that is created.

        2. Yes, its creation of wealth for the 1%, than to bad for the Bagholder when the bubble crashes.

          They should of never screwed with real estate or shelter.
          They shouldn’t mess with health or food or energy either, but nothing is off the table for the parasite looters of globe.

    2. “I think we’re going to see a lot more tapping, for cars, vacays, and bar-hopping boob jobs.”

      How does one tap said equity when said equity has disappeared? It’s now or never.

      1. bar-hopping boob jobs

        Imagine paying for that over 30 years, with interest. I think the returns would be diminishing. Home improvements.

  15. “You will own nothing and you will be happy.”

    Correction:

    You will own nothing and I will be happy.

    😁

    1. I’m sure your boss read this article yesterday:

      “Locks are certainly not repeating 2021 levels for January, with initial anecdotal pipeline numbers down 30-40 percent. Are you reducing costs accordingly?”

      When all the ignorant pukes have sucked out all their equity and gotten themselves into debt up their eyeballs, and the Blackrocks and Blackstones are the only buyers out there, where does that leave poor Mr. Banker? Part of the “reduced costs”.

      1. where does that leave poor Mr. Banker? Part of the “reduced costs”.

        What happens to the friendly neighborhood “Mr. Banker” when his branch is closed? Especially in an age when lines of credit are applied for online and you don’t need to actually step into a bank.

        The quaint days when Mr. Banker knew that because you worked at the local XYZ factory that you were good for a car loan and would approve the loan himself, are long gone. Of course, back then people didn’t have 20 credit cards or a second mortgage on the shack. Maybe you had a Sears charge and a Chevron gas card.

        Now you’re approved/declined by an algorithm and you sign “on the dotted” line virtually on your phone or tablet.

        1. Back in the day I walked into the local bank, walked up to Mr. Morgan’s desk and asked for a loan to buy a used car ($300). Mr. Morgan smiled, said he knew my dad, and based on that gave me the loan.

          1. It ain’t so.

            The Solid Assets we bankers get to rely on (and get to milk to the max) is the universal ignorance of the average American puke. This universal ignorance is the successful result of decades of dumbing-down by our marvelous No Child Left Behind indoctrination system.

            This Solid Asset has recently been utilized in convincing the vast multitudes of totally dumbed-down ignorant pukes that:

            1. Debt equates to wealth, and

            2. Price equals Value.

            Combine 1 and 2 and you get what you see before you.

            The saying is: “This too will pass” and pass it will but soon another dumbed-down idea (The Great Reset perhaps?) will spring up to take its place and once again these Solid Assets will again be milked, milked, in part, by yours truly.

          2. by yours truly

            We have nothing to fear, being as fiscal prudence is well, outdated.

            I’m outdated as well, but you can’t touch me.

    1. Instead of buying stickers, I designed and printed my own, with basic black ink on Avery labels.

      Gas pumps, ATMs, fast food drive throughs, public restrooms, I’m putting them *EVERYWHERE* because while they can censor online spaces, they can’t censor the physical world 🙁

      1. Very good point that they can’t censor the physical world. The resistance to the One World Order has to take the battle to the real World.

        The Truckers are in the real World. Some billionaire is putting big signs all over the place trying to educate the brainwashed. Not complying is a major defense , especially if you start getting big numbers just not going along.
        Let’s face it, they have been training people for years to go along to get along, in spite of their gut feelings telling people it was madness .

    1. The Financial Times
      Opinion On Wall Street
      Trigger points loom over equity markets
      After declining for 40 years, rising bond yields pose a risk for stocks
      Philip Coggan
      An eagle sculpture on the facade of the US Federal Reserve building in Washington
      Inflation is now running at 7% in the US and the Federal Reserve must surely continue increasing rates until it is brought under control
      © Bloomberg
      Philip Coggan yesterday
      The writer is a financial journalist and author of ‘More: The 10,000-Year Rise of the World Economy’

      The year has not started well for equity markets. Fears of inflation and tighter monetary policy are weighing on share prices as tensions between Russia and Ukraine darken the outlook.

      There is a sense that government bond yields, after declining for 40 years, might be trending upwards again. There are three reasons why this can be bad news for equities.

      The first is that for asset allocators, bonds and equities are competing options. Higher yields make bonds more attractive and prompt some investors to switch out of equities. The second reason is that higher bond yields make it more difficult for the economy to grow and more expensive for companies to raise finance.

      Third, equity valuations are linked to the expectation of future profits growth. To put a current value of those future profits, they must be discounted by some rate to take into account the time value of money — a dollar in 10 years’ time is worth less than a dollar today. This rate is usually the return that could be earned predictably elsewhere, typically benchmark bond yields. Lower bond yields mean a lower discount rate and thus seem to justify a higher valuation level. By contrast, higher bond yields should mean lower equity valuations.

      The valuation issue is perhaps the biggest threat for the stock market since the cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio (which compares share prices with the average of the last 10 years’ profits) on Wall Street is nearly 40, more than double the historic average. Furthermore, the valuation of tech stocks relies particularly on profits yet to be made, so they are harmed more markedly by a rise in the discount rate.
      …

      1. Stawks technicals flashing red all over the place. SPY and QQQ gapped down this week, SPY can’t pierce the 20 day moving average, QQQ can’t pierce the 200 day moving average…

Comments are closed.