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Too Many People Wanting To Sell And Not Enough Buyers To Go Around

A report from the Ledger in Florida. “Thomas Gebregergis had $100,000 in cash and was looking to secure a spacious second home. He turned to the foreclosure market and offered $28,100 on what he thought would be a dream property for him and his family. Instead, he ended up with a nightmare: a home gutted by fire at 2121 Blue Highlands Drive, in a relatively young and pristine development off Airport Road in west Lakeland. When he found out his offer had been accepted on May 28, Gebregergis’ initial reaction was to jump for joy with his wife. He couldn’t believe his luck. ‘I just pay immediately from my bank because I felt like someone — I was just kind of nervous, ‘Oh, they’re gonna cancel the sale,’ Gebregergis said.”

“The next day, Gebregergis, his wife and kids drove 45 minutes from their home in Kissimmee to view the property in person for the very first time. A week later, Gebregergis filed in court to have the sale thrown out. Gebregergis said he just wants to make sure everyone is safe. ‘I don’t want anyone to be hurt just because of my poor decision,’ Gebregergis said. ‘I messed up, I lose money, on top of that, I don’t want anyone to be hurt. That’s my goal. After that, we’ll see if I’m lucky. If God will give it to me and at least I can sell it or I can recover my money.'”

From CBS News. “Heather Kruayai is a Redfin real estate agent in Jacksonville. Kruayai: You are seeing a lot of these Wall Street investors that are coming in. You know, you put a house on the market, and within an hour I’m getting offers full price, cash. And so these– the sellers are seeing that, and– “Oh, okay. Cash. We can close in 15 days.” It’s very enticing to people when they see that offer come across.'”

“Lesley Stahl: So when you sell, are you having to stage the house? Paint it? Put furniture in, make it look really nice?  Heather Kruayai: Not now. It’s not necessary now in this– this way, the way the market’s going now. You really don’t need to do anything to your house to sell it. Typically the– investors never look at the home. Never.”

“Lesley Stahl: They don’t even look at the home? Heather Kruayai: ‘They never look at it.’ That, plus the fact that investors often waive inspections, puts would-be first-time home buyers at a serious disadvantage. Before they can even see a starter house, it’s gone.”

The Phoenix Business Journal. “Lennar Corp.’s increasingly profitable homebuilding operations were dragged down by losses from volatile venture capital investments in its first fiscal quarter of 2022. The LENx website has 24 companies listed in its portfolio, including six that are publicly traded. That includes San Francisco-based Opendoor Technologies, which has a large Arizona presence; Scottsdale-based SmartRent; Houston-based Sunnova Energy International, San Francisco-based Doma Holdings, and Palo Alto, California-based Hippo Holdings, which all had declines in stock prices in recent months.”

“In 2021, Lennar announced plans to spin off its LENx portfolio, its multifamily business, its single-family rental business and its land investments into a separate company, temporarily identified as SpinCo. It is currently working with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the NYSE to finalize the spinoff and stock listing. The question is whether now is the best time for the spinoff, with higher interest rates and the increasing cost of building supplies impacting the housing market, plus the decline in stock value of the LENx portfolio.”

“‘Unfortunately, we think Lennar missed the window to capture high returns for LEN shareholders with a SpinCo,’ said Kenneth Leon, research director at New York-based CFRA Research.”

The Financial Post. “Most agree that Canada’s housing boom during the pandemic has been unprecedented. Low interest rates, pandemic shifts in homebuyers’ preferences, excess household savings, ever higher price expectations and speculators and investors piling in have worked together to send home prices 50% above pre-pandemic levels as of February. Now Oxford Economics argues that the aftermath of this boom will be unparalleled too. Tony Stillo, director of Canada Economics at Oxford, predicts that a housing correction beginning this autumn will see home prices decline 24% by mid-2024.”

“Oxford sees three triggers for the correction. First, and perhaps foremost, is the market itself. By late 2021, home prices were 19% beyond the borrowing capacity of median-income households in Canada, the report says, and the gains since then have just made it worse. Oxford expects by mid-year home prices will be an unprecedented 38% above what the average household can afford. ‘We believe this will cause the housing market to reach a breaking point and crash under the weight of its own success before year end,’ Stillo said in the report.”

From News.com.au in Australia. “The first sign that Sydney’s turbocharged housing market is slowing down has emerged. More than one in ten homes in the NSW capital are selling for less than they were initially priced at, according to Domain. An estimated 10 per cent of dwellings are having to sell at a substantially discounted price because of the phenomenon.That number isn’t much better in Melbourne, with nine per cent of properties having to sell for less to entice buyers.”

“The trend is reportedly because the real estate industry is saturated, with too many people wanting to sell and not enough buyers to go around. Domain’s head of research and economics, Dr Nicola Powell, told news.com.au: ‘Homes are now coming to the market quicker than they’ve been able to sell.'”

“In bad news for sellers but great news for buyers, one Sydney home relisted $100,000 cheaper than its original asking price. Dr Powell warned that buyers were getting choosier, which was leading to a housing slowdown. ‘Buyers are getting more careful of paying too much [for a property] rather than paying out of fear of missing out,’ she said. There are too many homes on offer, according to Dr Powell. ‘We’re seeing demand ease and views per listing have been pulled back, whereas demand was outpacing supply last year.'”

“Homeowners most likely saw now as a good time to sell their properties because ‘they’re timing it when prices are at their peak and interest rates haven’t gone up,’ she explained. However, this had the added side effect of flooding the market with housing stock. With interest rates expected to rise in the next several months, Dr Powell expects to see more houses forced to re-list at a cheaper rate. ‘We’re likely to see it [the number of discounted houses] track higher as we see the market slow down more, I do think we’ll probably see it proportionally rise,’ she added.”

From Stuff New Zealand. “The median house price in Auckland City has fallen by nearly a fifth since peaking in November, according to data from the Real Estate Institute. The institute’s (Reinz) data shows the median price of residential properties in the city fell from about $1.54 million in November to $1.25m in February.”

“The fall was also noted by property data firm CoreLogic, which also recorded a 19 per cent median sale price drop between the December quarter and the year to date.​ CoreLogic head of research Nick Goodall said the drop was in part due to a rise in the proportion of flats and apartments selling, and a fall in the number of freestanding homes sold, which was probably driven by house owners’ price expectations being too high.​”

“The owners of traditional houses that managed to sell were probably the ones accepting lower prices, Goodall said. He said these probably included motivated sellers who had already bought another property and investors who would accept prices below what they would have been three months ago, given the capital gain was still large. ‘It does show an adjustment in the market where lower prices are being achieved,’ he said.”

From CNBC. “A slew of Chinese real estate developers said this week that they are either not able to release their financial results on time or have yet to set board meetings for them. Among them is troubled property developer Evergrande which shook investment markets last year as a result of its debt crisis. The developers gave a variety of reasons for not being able to do so. In a filing to the Hong Kong exchange on Tuesday, Evergrande said that due to the ‘drastic changes’ in its operational environment since the second half of last year, its auditor added ‘a large number of additional audit procedures’ this year.”

“Other developers said the resignation of auditors meant they could not issue their financial year (FY) 2021 earnings on time, according to Japanese bank Nomura. Developer Ronshine said Monday that PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) has quit, citing insufficient time for the audit as well as the Covid resurgence in China as two main reasons for the resignation. In the past two months, developers such as Aoyuan, Shanghai Shimao and Hopson also announced change of auditors.”

“‘When developers change auditors ahead of their full-year results season, it typically raises red flags regarding potential auditing issues and should lead to serious market concerns about the trustworthiness of their financial numbers,’ Nomura said in a Monday note.”

This Post Has 94 Comments
  1. ‘dragged down by losses from volatile venture capital investments in its first fiscal quarter of 2022. The LENx website has 24 companies listed in its portfolio, including six that are publicly traded. That includes San Francisco-based Opendoor Technologies, which has a large Arizona presence; Scottsdale-based SmartRent; Houston-based Sunnova Energy International, San Francisco-based Doma Holdings, and Palo Alto, California-based Hippo Holdings, which all had declines in stock prices in recent months’

    That’s a pretty broad based a$$ pounding for the red hotcakes.

    1. How can one donate a few shekels for site maintenance yet remain anonymous? I don’t know what info PayPuke sends you.

    1. What was Buffett’s line? Something like you see who is naked when the tide goes out?

      6% 30yr is very reasonable (almost on the low side) by historic standards. But it is going to hurt going forward. The refi business will not look pleasant.

      The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage hit 4.72% on Tuesday, moving 26 basis points higher since just Friday, according to Mortgage News Daily.

      As a result of the recent spike in rates, economists are now lowering their home sales forecasts for this year.

      Most estimates at the end of last year had the average 30-year mortgage rate hitting 4.5% by the close of 2022, but the war in Ukraine, rising oil prices and inflation have all lit a fire under interest rates. At this time in 2021, rates were about 3.45%

      A shift in the policy outlook from the Federal Reserve, suggesting far more rate increases than expected, is pushing bond yields higher. The 30-year fixed mortgage loosely follows the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury, which is now at the highest level since May 2019.

      “Rates have a small chance to top out before hitting 5% and a good chance of topping out before hitting 6%,” said Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily. “It is a rapidly moving target in this environment, where we legitimately and unexpectedly find ourselves needing to be concerned with inflation for the first time since the 1980s.”

      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/22/mortgage-rates-are-surging-faster-than-expected-prompting-economists-to-lower-their-home-sales-forecasts.html

      https://themortgagereports.com/61853/30-year-mortgage-rates-chart#current

      1. Three weeks ago, I told a friend who sold and bought 2 years that I was waiting for the FED to stop buying MBS and raise interest rates before buying a house. She was marveling at the “millions” her realtor must have made in the last few years and told me that the FED wouldn’t raise rates.

    1. BTW you’ll see this called ‘changed auditors’. They quit and walked out.

      ‘The trend is reportedly because the real estate industry is saturated, with too many people wanting to sell and not enough buyers to go around…Homes are now coming to the market quicker than they’ve been able to sell’

      There is not, has never been and never will be a shortage of shacks.

      1. Gosh, I hope this doesn’t mean the underlying collateral is deteriorating. Cuz that could be, like, problematic for investors & speculators.

      2. “There is not, has never been and never will be a shortage of shacks.”

        But, but…”They’re not making any more land” or “The illegals gotta live somewhere”

        Yeah, it’s different this time.

  2. just the land for the property in question is valued at $42,000, so Gebregergis paid less than what the property is worth regardless of the status of the physical home.

    1. Has anyone else noticed that news articles are sort of jumping around in time? It’s like watching a Christopher Nolan movie. I tried to read the article and gave up trying to figure out what was going on.

      The article doesn’t say whether Gebregergis paid $29K total or put $29k as a down payment. I’m going to guess a down payment. If the total was $29K, I’m sure some investor would have snapped up the land and built a rental there.

      Lack of journalism aside, if the FB couldn’t be bothered to drive 45 minutes, then he deserves to get schlonged.

      1. I tried to read the article

        The second sentence of the article clearly answers your question.

  3. Aussies & Kiwis who elected globalist Quisling regimes are now reaping what they voted as a tipping point nears where they’ll have to decide between paying their mortgages or gassing up their cars.

    Cost of living pressures: One thing making Aussie families nervous

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/cost-of-living-pressures-one-thing-making-aussie-families-nervous/news-story/a3f8183289c50b3c9c1f68adc467929f

    Australian families are growing increasingly nervous as they pay much more for everyday groceries than they did one year ago.

    Stagnant wage growth and record levels of household debt are creating a perfect storm.

    “The cost of living right now is going up,” mother of two Serena Ryan told the ABC on Tuesday night.

    “Groceries that two years ago would cost me around $100 a week are now around $140 to $150 a week.

    “I wasn‘t getting nervous about it until I saw the price of fuel go up.”

    1. and record levels of household debt

      A person or a people that go deeply into debt have lost their moral compass. It is not a great leap to then accept amoral leaders. The debtor also endangers their family by their own self induced fragility.

    1. I think Cackles will be made an offer to resign that she can’t refuse. Of course, that could mean she could be replaced by the Hildebeast, who would then replace Brandon.

      Pick your poison, I guess.

    1. “can mix it up on date night with some hobo stew.”

      In days gone by I would have been happy to mix it up with that Hobo.

    1. They don’t want you to drive a car anymore, but this filthy destruction of the environment and hideous waste of natural resources is just fine.

  4. Denver used shack buyers, please continue waiving inspections, especially on electrical.

    Nothing could possibly go wrong, and in the rare event something does, you can always fix it yourself from watching You Tube videos.

    “They’re not sending their best”

    1. “Nothing could possibly go wrong”

      Fire burns down family home in Sacramento ahead of Christmas

      The Sacramento family lost everything but managed to get all kids and pets out of the home. Now, they’re relying on donations to feed and clothe their kids.

      Author: Morgan Rynor
      Published: 5:07 PM PST December 24, 2021

      While the cause of their fire was electrical, fire officials are still warning everyone to be extra vigilant this holiday season.

      https://www.abc10.com/article/news/local/sacramento/house-fire-christmas/103-469ec5c9-50a0-4b2c-adab-80a6ab28d37c

      1. I cut into some hot 277 volts within the first hour of the day on Monday. The breaker didn’t trip, but it was an amusing small explosion up in the ceiling.

        1. I had a buddy helping me with some electrical work on a house a long time ago – just replacing some switches and things. As I was standing in the kitchen about 10 feet away, there was a pop and a huge flash which caused me to jump. I looked over at him and his face was crimson and his eyes wide as he said “I forgot to turn off the power.” There was a large black mark on the wall. The insulated tools worked because he didn’t get zapped.

          1. I was changing a heating element for a hot water heater with the labeled breaker turned off. Come to find they reversed the labels with the dryer. SNAP! Lesson learned.

    1. Remembering what the Left said and did 2 years ago is racist, ant-science, homophobic and makes you a domestic terrorist.

      “He continued, “This is one of the things that’s so weird is that they were very disparaging of Ukraine, and they were talking about the massive corruption of Ukraine, and how horrible it was over there.”

      “And now, all of a sudden, they’re looking at it like they’re heroes. The same exact people. This is what’s confusing,” the host added.”

      1. Yeah ,I have noticed exactly the same kind of thing, to the point I don’t even keep up with the so called “Ukraine news”,at all

      2. I ran across this, from Wikipedia of all places …

        “Corruption is widespread in Ukrainian society.[1][2] In 2012 Ernst & Young put Ukraine among the three most-corrupt nations of the world—alongside Colombia and Brazil.[3] In 2015 The Guardian called Ukraine ‘the most corrupt nation in Europe’.[4] According to a poll conducted by Ernst & Young in 2017, experts considered Ukraine to be the ninth-most corrupt nation in the world.[5] According to Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index (a scale of least to most corrupt nations), Ukraine ranked 122nd out of 180 countries in 2021. Among European countries, only Russia is ranked more corrupt than Ukraine, at 136th.[6].

        “United States diplomats described Ukraine under Presidents Kuchma (in office from 1994 to 2005) and Yushchenko (in office from 2005 to 2010) as a kleptocracy, according to WikiLeaks cables.[7]”

        Corruption in Ukraine – Wikipedia
        https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine#:~:text=According%20to%20a%20poll%20conducted,of%20180%20countries%20in%202021.

  5. Burning Stupidity …

    “The next day, Gebregergis, his wife and kids drove 45 minutes from their home in Kissimmee to view the property in person for the very first time.”

    He drove AN ENTIRE 45 minutes to, for the first time, view in person the property he bought.

    1. “…He drove AN ENTIRE 45 minutes to…”

      Least we not forget Gebregergis, his wife and kids had to spend an entire 45 minutes driving *back*.

      Factor in gasup time, and a trip thru McDonalds drive thru and we are talking a good 2 hours.

      2 hours Gebregergis will never get back, along with $28,100.

      Did Darwin ever visit Florida?

    2. “Lesley Stahl: They don’t even look at the home? Heather Kruayai: ‘They never look at it.’ That, plus the fact that investors often waive inspections, puts would-be first-time home buyers at a serious disadvantage. Before they can even see a starter house, it’s gone.”

      From Merriam-Webster:

      sight unseen adverb
      Definition of sight unseen
      : without inspection or appraisal

      Examples of sight unseen in a sentence:

      Buyers were making phone calls, buyers were buying properties, sight unseen, to get out of the Bay Area. — Susie Neilson, San Francisco Chronicle, 28 Jan. 2022

      Last year, a Zillow survey showed that 36% of buyers would even purchase a property sight unseen. — Kameryn Griesser And Sofia Barrett, CNN, 9 Dec. 2021

      Dreamers Are Waiting, too, is bookish: In 2020, Finn and his wife took a chance on the estate sale of a secondhand shop and purchased hundreds of old books, sight unseen. — Katherine Turman, EW.com, 1 June 2021

      Geoffrey Ley, who is relocating for a new job, just sold his 4,000-square-foot home in Dallas to buy a slightly less expensive one in Kansas City, sight unseen, with 7,500 square feet and a pool. — Deborah Acosta, WSJ, 22 May 2021

      His winning bids were two of dozens that his real estate agent, a former equities trader who now works primarily with individual investors, made sight unseen, all of them for at least $40,000 over the asking price. — New York Times, 12 Nov. 2021

      High demand has left home buyers with few options, and thus many people have bought homes sight unseen in order to beat competing bids. — Joseph Edgar, Forbes, 1 Nov. 2021

      https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/sight%20unseen

      1. Do you think showering the financial system with trillions in Quantitative Easing dollars led to the sight-unseen real estate investment behavior we recently witnessed? I’ve never seen anything like it before.

        1. I enjoy allocating such credit to our dismal No Child Left Behind educational (sic) system.

      2. Leslie Stahl is the worst interviewer in history. She sickens me with her lack of ability. I’d rather have Michael Strahan do an interview on anything. She is hopeless and should be in a home run by Cuomo during Covid

  6. ‘That, plus the fact that investors often waive inspections, puts would-be first-time home buyers at a serious disadvantage.’

    Over-financializing shelter – a basic human need. This is what 21st century human progress looks like?

    1. Don’t forget that the goal of government-sponsored financialization of housing is to make it affordable for anyone who needs a place to live in.

  7. Check this out …

    “Introduced in House (02/28/2022)
    This bill authorizes the President to issue letters of marque and reprisal to privately armed individuals and entities to seize the assets of certain Russian citizens.

    “Specifically, the holder of such a letter shall be authorized to employ all means reasonably necessary to seize any asset, such as a yacht or plane, outside of the United States that belongs to a Russian citizen on the Office of Foreign Asset Control’s List of Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons.”

    https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/6869?s=1&r=4

    1. So Congress is granting to people licenses to steal.

      I (of course) like it.

      😁

      From Wikipedia …

      A letter of marque and reprisal (French: lettre de marque; lettre de course) was a government license in the Age of Sail that authorized a private person, known as a privateer or corsair, to attack and capture vessels of a nation at war with the issuer. After capturing, the privateers could bring the case of that prize before their own admiralty court for condemnation and transfer of ownership to the privateer. A letter of marque and reprisal would include permission to cross an international border to conduct a reprisal (take some action against an attack or injury) and was authorized by an issuing jurisdiction to conduct reprisal operations outside its borders.

      Copy of a letter of marque and reprisal issued by Maurice, Prince of Orange to Captain Johan de Moor from Vlissingen for South America, 1 June 1618, page 1

      Letter of marque given to Captain Antoine Bollo via the shipowner Dominique Malfino from Genoa, owner of the Furet, a 15-tonne privateer, 27 February 1809
      Popular among Europeans from the late Middle Ages up to the 19th century, cruising for enemy prizes with a letter of marque was considered an honorable calling that combined patriotism and profit. Such privateering contrasted with individuals conducting unlicensed attacks and captures of random ships, which was known as piracy; piracy was almost universally reviled.[1] In practice, the differences between privateers and pirates were often at best subtle and at worst a matter of interpretation.[2][3]

      In addition to referring to the license, the terms “letter of marque” and “privateer” were sometimes used to describe the vessels used to pursue and capture prizes. In this context, a letter of marque was a lumbering, square-rigged cargo carrier that might pick up a prize if the opportunity arose in its normal course of duties. In contrast, the term privateer generally referred to a fast and weatherly fore-and-aft rigged vessel, well armed and carrying more crew, intended exclusively for fighting.[4]

      Letters of marque allowed governments to fight their wars using private captains and sailors, akin to mercenary soldiers, to hunt down enemies and fight their wars instead of using their navies. Oftentimes it was cheaper and easier for governments to issue letters of marque to privateers than to maintain a longstanding navy. Instead of building, funding, and maintaining a navy in times of peace and in times of war, governments would issue letters of marque to privateers so they could fight the nation’s battles. This way, the government issuing the letter of marque were not responsible to fix or maintain any of the privateers’ ships since they were owned by the privateers.[5]

    1. Reminds me of the possibly apocryphal stories of men dressing as women to procure a spot on one of the Titanic’s lifeboats.

  8. Bonds and notes futures …

    Remember, prices of these things move in the opposite direction of projected interest rates.

    The message is clear: Interest rates are moving up and hence housing prices will move down due to affordability issues and this price decrease will destroy home equity. So I suggest everyone who possess home equity rush to their local bank branch and cash all their home out before it completely disappears.

    Remember the wisdom contained in an article from the last real estate downturn:

    “It was my equity I cashed out. I don’t see any reason why I should have to give it back.”

    😁

    1. Fear is in the air. Ran in to my small time developer bud yesterday and he lamented that in that the last week 3 of his pre-solds went adios leaving their deposits on the table, with one actually saying interest rates are scaring them big time. This is a little guy developer in a small Northwest town. Imagine what’s going on right now on a macro scale.

        1. It should be at inflation plus 2% now. What we’re already seeing: higher rates worry lenders who are constantly raising now. Prices start to fall, lender is becoming afraid about the loans. Tightens loans, higher rates, which causes more market weakness. Etc.

          1. It should be at inflation plus 2% now.

            The distortions that the FED has caused in the market have never before been seen. WTF were they doing the past year+ when everybody else saw what was going on? Like you have said many times – why were they lending for 30 years at low rates that make absolutely no sense? The FED was buying all these MBS. It was all fakery.

      1. Funny, I live in a small NW coastal town and that very same situation is playing out in my neighborhood. Developer bought 3 lots, presumably for pre-sale, cleared them and suddenly put them up for sale for a hefty premium. Around here no one clears lots and then tries to flip.

    2. Yep. Financially speaking, there’s not much difference between housing and long term bonds, except that in a recession, bonds normally go up while housing craters.

      1. We arguably launched economic WW3 with the sanctions against Russia. Now, we’ve invited China to join.

        1. I think we needed to pull the ChiComs into the war to give it full WW3 status.

          Though I have to wonder, how does one wage economic war against countries that the rest of the world is dependent on for energy, grain, ores and consumer goods? It’s gonna be fun when the local auto parts store doesn’t have the parts you need to repair your car or when there are no mobile phones available to buy.

          1. how does one wage economic war against countries that the rest of the world is dependent on for energy, grain, ores and consumer goods?

            The other countries will unite and economically divorce from the West causing the USD to lose reserve currency status. As I said, f’n morons.

  9. Image 1: Authentication and validation of two images from the ‘Hunter Biden laptop’ collection

    ‘If you are not getting the relevance of Vadym Pozharskyi, the top Burisma adviser emailing Hunter asking for “advice on how you could use your influence”, the following composite may be of some help. Seen below is Vadym Pozharskyi in situ at an Atlantic Council event with former senior state department officials in the Obama administration including: Evelyn Farkas, Ambassador John Herbst, and Ambassador Roman Popadiuk. All hard at work unselfishly promoting the interests of Burisma.’

    https://www.yaacovapelbaum.com/2020/10/15/hunter-biden-laptop-images-are-authentic/

    1. Authentication and validation

      The New York Times, famously “The Paper of Record”, already just waved their wand and authenticated the whole thing. I can’t imagine any reason for this other than that he’s going to be thrown under the bus, and Pops with him. A suitable scapegoat for the US’s multiple failures on the world stage.

  10. Is it safe to assume the bond market rout, due to inflation fears related to the Ukraine invasion and Fed rate hikes, is finished playing out at this point?

    1. The Financial Times
      US Inflation
      US government bond market suffering worst month since Trump elected
      Traders fear Fed will be unable to tame inflation stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
      Traders looking at screens at the New York Stock Exchange
      Traders are betting the US central bank will lift interest rates above 2 per cent by December
      © AP
      Kate Duguid and Joe Rennison in New York
      March 21 2022

      The US government bond market is suffering its worst month since Donald Trump was elected president in 2016, as high inflation pushes the Federal Reserve to aggressively pull back monetary stimulus from the economy.

      Falling bond prices have lifted the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield 0.48 percentage points in March to 2.3 per cent, its highest level since May 2019. A rise in yields of that magnitude was last registered in November 2016.

      Then, Treasury yields rose on the back of expectations of higher US economic growth. Now the trigger is persistently strong inflation readings, fuelled over the past month by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its potential to constrain the supply of oil and other key commodities.

    2. The Financial Times
      Markets Briefing Equities
      US stocks rise and government bonds sell off as traders anticipate rate rises
      Debt markets come under fresh selling pressure on prospect of tighter policy as equity investors look past recession risk
      A woman trader at the Frankfurt stock exchange
      Traders are anticipating monetary policy tightening on both sides of the Atlantic to curb inflation
      © Timm Reichert/Reuters
      Kate Duguid in New York, Naomi Rovnick in London, and Thomas Hale and William Langley in Hong Kong yesterday

      Wall Street stocks rose on Tuesday and US government bond prices fell, as investors looked ahead to tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.

      The S&P 500 index rose 1.1 per cent as investors balanced remarks from Fed chair Jay Powell about the need for rapid interest rate rises with his reassurance that tightening would not spark a recession. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 2 per cent.

      Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note rose 0.09 percentage points to 2.38 per cent — the highest level since May 2019 — as its price fell.

  11. “The trend is reportedly because the real estate industry is saturated, with too many people wanting to sell and not enough buyers to go around. Domain’s head of research and economics, Dr Nicola Powell, told news.com.au: ‘Homes are now coming to the market quicker than they’ve been able to sell.’”

    Economics offers a mindlessly simple remedy: If prices fall, the rate at which homes come to market decreases, and the rate at which they sell increases.

    Result: Supply and demand reach equilibrium.

    There’s a fancy French term for this process: Tâtonnement adjustment

    https://www.encyclopedia.com/social-sciences/applied-and-social-sciences-magazines/tatonnement

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