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It’s A Shock For Sellers When There’s A Sudden Shift

A report from the New York Post. “Blackstone Group’s transfer of a $308 million loan on 1740 Broadway to a special servicer had real-estate jaws dropping on Wednesday. A knowledgeable source said of the move, ‘They overpaid for the building by at least $100 million and the loan terms left them no wiggle room to ask for lower rents. End of story.'”

The Daily Mail. “Scarlett Johansson has sold her two-bedroom, two-bathroom penthouse in New York City at a loss from what she paid for it 14 years ago. The actress received $1.87 million for the luxe abode, which is $230,000 less than the $2.1 million she paid for the property in 2008. Johansson also poured money into renovating and updating the property.”

From KPAX on Montana. “Once locked at historic lows, apartment vacancies across Missoula have begun to rise, spelling possible relief for renters. The median price of a home also fell over the winter. The median price of a Missoula home hit a record-high $520,000 last November. However, MOR said it has slipped each month since and stood at $475,000 in February.”

From News 4 Jax. “‘Part of it is, you know, the per sale market as well. I mean, we’ve seen about a 22% increase in the median price in the past 12 months, year over year. Thankfully, we see that moderating a bit,’ said Mark Rosener, president of the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors. ‘Since November, the median prices just kind of fluctuated 2 or 3% either way. So hopefully, we’re beginning to see some of those indicators moderate a little bit.'”

From Bankrate. “Rates above 5 percent? That was exceedingly rare. During the past 10 years, the average cost of a 30-year mortgage topped the 5 percent threshold for just one fleeting six-week period in late 2018. Ken H. Johnson, a housing economist at Florida Atlantic University, likewise says rates could hit the 5 percent mark soon. ‘Unless things slow down in the 10-year Treasury note market, any day now,’ he says. ‘We are outside the bounds of normality now. Strange things happen at the peak of a market.'”

From Reuters. “A sharp sell-off in U.S. Treasuries has increased concerns about low levels of liquidity in the $23.5 trillion market, potentially amplifying losses for investors which already had a dire start to the year. Concerns have increased for several factors. One is that the Fed has ceased buying U.S. Treasuries, after ending this month a bond-buying programme aimed at supporting the economy during the coronavirus crisis. ‘We are adjusting to that new world where the Fed is not a buyer,’ said Ed Al-Hussainy, senior rates and currency analyst at Columbia Threadneedle.”

From Dow Jones. “The numbers: U.S. new-home sales decreased 2% to an annual rate of 772,000 in February, the government said Wednesday. The supply of new homes for sale rose between January and February to a 6.3-month supply of units. In January, new home inventories were already at the highest level since 2008, according to Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.”

The Financial Post. “The homebuying frenzy that helped drive house prices to new heights during the pandemic appears to be slowing, according to a new poll from Royal Bank of Canada. Last week, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported a 24 per cent jump in listings in February from January, and a 4.6 per cent rise in home resales.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “The Toronto-area real estate market is cooling in March after a torrid start to the year. Fresh listings have soothed the ‘fear of missing out’ that permeated the market in January. Davelle Morrison, broker with Bosley Real Estate Ltd., recently listed three properties in different neighbourhoods and all three saw relatively calm action on the days reserved for reviewing offers. In one case, Ms. Morrison listed a 1,200-square-foot midtown condo with attractive views for an asking price of $1.5-million. The unit received one offer and sold $100,000 below asking.”

“In a downtown neighbourhood, a three-bedroom fixer-upper didn’t attract the attention she expected despite its popular location. The challenge for sellers then becomes that buyers who have already taken a cautious approach sense the slowdown and decide to wait a little bit longer, she says. ‘It’s a shock for sellers when there’s a sudden shift. It’s a tough pill to swallow.'”

“Shane Little, a real estate agent with Re/Max Hallmark Richards Group Realty, says the east end – one of the hottest areas of the city at the start of 2022 – is noticeably slower in March. One sector in particular stands out: Buyers have become wary of the wild bidding melees that propelled prices for three-bedroom, semi-detached houses in such neighbourhoods such as Riverdale, Leslieville and Riverside, he notes.”

“Today some buyers are purchasing comparable semis in those pockets for $1.5-million or $1.55-million, compared with the $1.7-million some buyers paid in order to beat their rivals in January, he says. Mr. Little says he doesn’t view the shift so much as today’s buyers negotiating a deal as panicked bidders paying more than they should have in the opening weeks of the year.”

“Mr. Little crunched the numbers in the swathe between the Don Valley Parkway and Victoria Park Avenue, bound by O’Connor Drive to the north and Lake Ontario to the south. He found that 31 properties failed to sell on the scheduled offer night from mid-February to the middle of March. That’s three times the number in the 30-day period from mid-January to mid-February, he notes.”

“With total inventory in the area swelling by 61 in March from February, the sample size was larger, he points out, but the percentage of homes that missed on offer night shot up by 310 per cent. ‘We were flooded with product in February and March,’ he says. Homeowners, meanwhile, have exceedingly high expectations if they list their property for sale. ‘Sellers might be a little bit greedy right now,’ Mr. Little says.”

“Mr. Little points to an offer night in March when an agent in his office represented buyers who bid on an east-end house in the $1.5-million range. The sellers received three offers but rejected all of them. ‘The sellers still had that number in their heads and they couldn’t wrap their heads around taking less.'”

The South China Morning Post. “Mainland Chinese owners with luxury homes in Hong Kong’s upmarket Mid-Levels area are offloading their properties at deep discounts to cover their stock market losses, which is mired in a prolonged slump. About 10 to 20 per cent of mainland homeowners in Mid-Levels have reduced prices as they are in urgent need of funds or shedding their holdings, said Samuel Lai, senior district sales director at Midland Realty.”

“‘Homeowners in urgent need of money may cash in for having burnt their fingers in the stock market,’ said Lai, who estimates another 5 to 8 per cent will lower their asking prices until the pandemic and stock market volatility ease.”

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This Post Has 105 Comments

  1. ‘Today some buyers are purchasing comparable semis in those pockets for $1.5-million or $1.55-million, compared with the $1.7-million some buyers paid in order to beat their rivals in January’

    The winnahs!

  2. ‘Blackstone Group’s transfer of a $308 million loan on 1740 Broadway to a special servicer had real-estate jaws dropping on Wednesday. ‘They overpaid for the building by at least $100 million’

    I didn’t know they were out of money. Hey, they aren’t out of money. They just walked away! How do those 5% cap rates and non-recourse loans look now?

      1. those jingle male transactions make for some uncomfortable moments at the country club among the golf cart / white shoe set.

        but, not to fear, it’s just business.

        would you have any grey poupon? but of course!

    2. I have been repeatedly assured that Blackstone and BlackRock are the “smartest guys on the planet”, so anything they are doing must be correct. Like buying single family homes at the peak of the biggest bubble of all time, when those homes have the lowest cap rates of all time, and that’s with a temporary rent price boom.

    4. According to the article, they paid 600 million back in 2014. Ouch. They have been busy buying up lots of things lately too. For example, they bought Follet book store chain through the ceo’s pet company (blackstone has many tentacles) and they have been buying apartment portfolios. The bankruptcy sales are going to be epic.

    5. I didn’t know they were out of money. Hey, they aren’t out of money. They just walked away! How do those 5% cap rates and non-recourse loans look now?

      These big firms and Wall St. banks will intentionally stiff each other – anybody – in the blink of an eye. But when a person does it, they’re considered unscrupulous.

    6. Blackstone Group’s transfer of a $308 million loan…to a special servicer

      I don’t think Blackstone gets to “transfer a loan”. I think the lender decides. I guess the journalist was trying to make it sound like Blackstone somehow was in charge of the situation rather than being in default?

      1. Not a bank loan, I think it’s a securititized trust, so many little lenders with limited rights.

  3. ‘the Canadian Real Estate Association reported a 24 per cent jump in listings in February from January…‘We were flooded with product in February and March’

    Harry Potter strikes again!

    ‘Sellers might be a little bit greedy right now’

    Here we go.

    1. Wha?

      I thought there were “no inventories.” Did they just receive a truckload of new inventory from Chyna?

  4. “..Scarlett Johansson has sold her two-bedroom, two-bathroom penthouse in New York City at a loss from what she paid for it 14 years ago. The actress received $1.87 million for the luxe abode, which is $230,000 less than the $2.1 million she paid for the property in 2008…”

    Yet another show biz type displays amazing talent to lose money.

    Factor in all the holding costs since 2008, and what have you got?

    1. Don’t forget about inflation. MSM financial writers never bring up how much larger the loss is in real dollar value, because their dumbed down readership wouldn’t be able to understand anyway.

    2. “230,000 less than”

      Add the HOA fees, taxes and other expenses, she probably lost all 2.1 mil in those 14 years.

    3. actors, newly minted ballers, wall street douches, day laborers from mehico w/first steady job, all gotta show up & show out . . . at first. Julio, get the limo!
      then, later in life, SOME finally realize whats really important.

      and it ain’t shiny, expensive stuff n’ things. faith hill sez it’s a good cuppa coffee.

    5. Scarlett is a liberal, woke c*nt who schmoozes with pedophile Woody Allen. She’s also a self-hating Jewess.

      But hey, that’s just my opinion.

    1. Anybody else having problems with Bitchute loading on a Samsung Android phone?

      It wouldn’t surprise me if these demonic globalists are throttling traffic and page loads, because they don’t like the counter narrative.

  8. A knowledgeable source said of the move, ‘They overpaid for the building by at least $100 million and the loan terms left them no wiggle room to ask for lower rents. End of story.’”

    NP. The Fed & middle class taxpayers have their backs.

  9. How would you feel about oil at $250 a barrel, over twice the current price?

    Could you afford to buy gasoline, heat your home, and pay your overpriced mortgage?

    And what effect would a further doubling of oil have on inflation and interest rates?

    It’s a tough time to be a recent house buyer.

    1. The Financial Times
      Commodities
      Top oil traders warn prices could breach $200 a barrel
      Boycott of Russia since Ukraine invasion will have a lasting effect on energy markets
      Oil pumping jacks, or “nodding donkeys”, in an oilfield near Almetyevsk, Russia. Crude and refined products such as diesel from Russia will not return to the European market any time soon, say oil traders
      © Bloomberg
      Harry Dempsey in London and Tom Wilson and Neil Hume in Lausanne yesterday

      Some of the world’s most respected oil traders have predicted crude prices could climb beyond $200 a barrel this year owing to a growing international boycott of Russia and a lack of alternative sources of supply.

      Pierre Andurand, one of the sector’s best-known hedge fund managers, said supplies of Russian oil into Europe would disappear in the aftermath of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, leading to a lasting reshaping of global energy markets.

      “Wakey, wakey. We are not going back to normal business in a few months,” he told the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne. “I think we’re losing the Russian supply on the European side for ever.” Crude could even hit $250 barrel this year, double current levels, he said.
      …

        1. $10/gal guzzoline = I better park my small Toyota based RV behind my fence!
          it only has the usual small truck gas tank (17 gals) BUT the idiot & desperate scumbag tweakers (oh sorry: “unhoused” & FU poverty pimp mayor Steinberg) around here in Sacramento area won’t hesitate to drill the gas tank for a few gals.

        2. “$10 gasoline?”

          CNBC — Gasoline prices are hitting $6 in some parts of the country and summer driving season isn’t here yet (3/24/2022):

          “Gasoline prices have been fluctuating but are likely to keep moving sporadically higher, and more drivers could pay over $5 and even $6 a gallon for unleaded in the peak summer driving season.

          The national average for unleaded gasoline Thursday was $4.23 per gallon, down 5 cents from a week earlier and 10 cents below the recent all-time high, according to AAA. But analysts expect prices at the pump to start rising, with the jump this week in oil prices and the increasing price of gasoline in the futures market.”

          https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/24/gasoline-prices-hit-6-in-parts-of-the-us-and-summer-driving-isnt-here-yet.html

          F* Joe Biden.

          And anyone who voted for him, f* you too.

          1. are likely to keep moving sporadically higher

            What these idiot prognosticators seem to ignore is that we already know what happens to the economy when oil goes to $100, and it’s already past that.

    3. Cheer up man! You govna is giving you 400 bucks for gasoline. Wish my govna would gimme some.

      1. I’m of good cheer. Bought the dip in Vanguard Energy mutual fund shares in March 2020. It’s up enough to cover all my gasoline expenses over my future lifetime, inflated or not.

      2. You govna is giving you 400 bucks for gasoline

        Has Gruesome explained how he is going to pay for that? I don’t expect everyone will get free money, but it should be a few billion $ per month.

        Also, how long will it take California’s lumbering bureaucracies to implement such a program?

        1. “Has Gruesome explained how he is going to pay for that?”

          Lefty wrote a check with his mouth that his ash can’t cash.

    4. The Financial Times
      Markets Briefing Equities
      US Treasuries sell off and stocks slip as traders eye tighter policy
      Moves follow best week for Wall Street and European equities since 2020
      Traders at the New York Stock Exchange
      The benchmark S&P 500 share index and the Nasdaq Composite fell on Monday
      © AP
      Nicholas Megaw in New York, Naomi Rovnick and George Steer in London and William Langley in Hong Kong March 21 2022

      US stock and government bond prices swung on Monday after Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell stressed the need to move quickly to raise interest rates to combat high inflation.

      Government bond prices, which had already been declining earlier in the day, accelerated their losses after Powell appeared at a conference hosted by the National Association for Business Economics. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which rises when prices fall, jumped 0.15 percentage points to 2.3 per cent.

      The US government bond market is in the middle of its worst month since Donald Trump was elected president in 2016.
      …

    5. Dow tumbles more than 400 points as spike in oil prices stokes further inflation fears
      Phil Rosen
      17 hours ago
      – The Dow fell more than 400 points as all three major US indexes finished in the red.
      – Oil prices jumped with West Texas Intermediate settling 5.2% higher at $114.93 a barrel.
      – Adobe stock dropped 11% after the company said it would take a hit by pulling out of business in Russia.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-oil-ukraine-russia-war-lumber-2022-3

    6. Allegedly, current prices haven’t crimped demand in the US and in fact they are claiming demand has actually gone up! While this seems counter intuitive, it may show that we can handle even higher prices for a while. However, this will set off a pesky inflationary loop that will eventually choke off all kinds of activity. Will your shrewd Vanguard investment continue to perform or will it crater as the economy shrinks and new supplies are secured? Place your bets!

      1. The nice thing about Vanguard investments are that you can dump them overnight if it seems like a crater event is imminent.

        By contrast, buying real estate with ginormous leverage can easily leave you underwater with no escape in case the market turns against you.

    7. How would you feel about oil at $250 a barrel, over twice the current price?

      Make “traders” take delivery. These speculator scvm are the problem. The last blast up to $130 then back down had nothing to do with supply and demand. The world is awash in oil. Like somebody said “the Russian crude is going somewhere, there will always be a buyer, so the world has not lost that supply.”

      1. These speculator scvm are the problem

        My pet theory is that what has gone wrong over the past 30 years is so much money has been created that more and more markets can become financialized due to the higher liquidity.

        Metals, oil, real estate, lumber, etc etc. In the past these were legitimate markets (even though some could speculate) because the liquidity didn’t exist for the speculators to move the market.

        1. Wall street and many hedge funds have become confident that government bailouts are a sure thing. Capitalism needs bankruptcies to survive much like nature provides the hungry lion those with a limp.

    8. $250/bbl oil will never happen because the economy will collapse long before that price is reached. If it tried to go much higher than it is now most of the SUVs and non-commercial pickups will just get parked and repossessed. Almost nobody will go on vacation via airplane, and tourist spots will become ghost towns. Forget about eating avocados in North Dakota. Demand for oil will absolutely tank if it were to go above $150.

      1. Demand for oil will absolutely tank if it were to go above $150. You did not specify $150/gallon or $150/barrel, but either way, your point is well taken.

  10. “A sharp sell-off in U.S. Treasuries has increased concerns about low levels of liquidity in the $23.5 trillion market, potentially amplifying losses for investors which already had a dire start to the year.

    What kind of moron “investors” are buying USTs given the deeply negative real rates of return? As long as the Keynesian fraudsters at the Fed are printing us down the road to Weimar Republic 2.0, buying U.S. debt is a fool’s game.

  11. Oh dear…how long can PBOC liquidity injections defer the inevitable financial reckoning day?

    Kaisa becomes latest China developer to delay earnings results; shares slide

    https://www.reuters.com/business/china-developer-kaisa-says-earnings-results-delayed-due-lockdown-shares-slide-2022-03-23/

    HONG KONG, March 23 (Reuters) – Cash-strapped Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd (1638.HK) has joined a growing list of Chinese property developers unable to publish 2021 audited earnings by March 31 as required by listing rules, deepening market concern about the sector’s financial health.

    Kaisa late on Tuesday said a virus lockdown in Shenzhen left audit work incomplete so it cannot publish financial results on time. In a filing, it said trading of its shares in Hong Kong will therefore be suspended from April 1 as per bourse rules.

  12. Will the sheeple in the US & UK will ever crack the code on their votes for the corrupt, crony-capitalist status quo, and the collapse in their own standard of living?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10647141/Cost-living-crisis-Average-UK-worker-11-500-worse-year.html

    The average worker in Britain is now £11,500 worse off a year since the recession, a living standards think tank revealed today – with average weekly earnings now on course to rise by just £18 a week between 2008 and 2027.

    The Resolution Foundation said real-term wages were in the middle of a third major fall in a just over a decade, adding that average salaries would have risen by £240 a week had they continued on their pre-financial crisis path. It added that the lost growth is equivalent to a £11,500 annual wage loss for the average worker.

    The think tank also pointed out the scale of the cost of living crisis now means typical working-age household incomes are to set to fall by 4 per cent in real-terms in the next financial year of 2022/23, which is a loss of £1,100. It also said the biggest falls will be for the poorest quarter of households where incomes will drop by 6 per cent.

    1. The people who decided to print all of this money were the ones who financially benefited. The people paying the consequences got nothing. This was the biggest financial ripoff in world history. This was intentional. I’m looking forward to crooked necks.

    1. Last time I visited them quite a few years ago, some friends of mine were living in a rent controlled apartment in San Francisco. I am not sure how they qualified, as he’s a wealthy entrepreneur and investor with an MBA from an elite university, and she is also well educated and gainfully employed. Apparently it isn’t just low income that qualifies one for a rent controlled apartment. Luck and brains may be more important qualifications than impoverishment.

    2. Any time the government intervenes in the free market to try to make anything affordable, it becomes extremely expensive and unaffordable. I’m looking forward to stories out of Clownifornia where Governor Nuisance’s free money sh!tshow starts crucifying people financially.

  14. Today is Thursday, March 24th, and Joe Biden is not the legitimately elected president of the United States.

    The 2020 election was stolen, and it was stolen by globalists. Nation wrecking, dual loyalty, shape shifting, parasite globalists, who will never see you as anything more than cattle.

    The United States exists to them only as pool of taxpayer blood, and money, to be sucked dry.

    They have no allegience to this country, they are ticks, they are tapeworms.

    Globalists, know that the punishment for treason is DEATH ☠

    The Day Of The Rope is coming…

    2. I never thought I’d get to the point in life where, if a sitting US President fell down, hit his head, and died, that I would laugh. But this corrupt old pants-sh!tter is steering us right into WWIII. What were you and your son doing in Ukraine, fockhead?

      2. What were you and your son doing in Ukraine, fockhead?

        Backing biolabs? Human trafficking?

  15. Russia Today — Western elites are exploiting the Ukraine conflict to lower the standard of living (3/24/2022):

    “It seems to be a continuation of the trend where you must sacrifice for the greater global good or be ostracized by the thought police.

    Since Russia launched its military campaign in Ukraine, Western elites have been arguing that we all must collectively and senselessly concede to lowering our basic standards of living in order to hit back at President Vladimir Putin. In reality, all it does is allow them to continue to profit from our increasingly lowered expectations while all we get in return is the satisfaction of our own virtue signaling.”

    https://www.rt.com/news/552626-ukraine-conflict-living-standard/

    Every member of or person ever associated with the World Economic Forum needs to die.

    And f* Zelensky and his corrupt sh*thole country.

    2. Do u know how many Russian troops and generals have died since the onset of Putin’s version of the Vietnam War?

        1. Stephen King
          @StephenKing
          Ukraine might well be Putin’s Vietnam.
          6:33 PM · Mar 8, 2022

          2. The only Stephen King I know writes progressively worse horror novels since the 70’s.

            Who is this one that is so informed on Ukraine that I should take his opinion more seriously than say, Joy Behar?

      2. Sorry PBear, better stick to mathematics. Geopolitics clearly not your forte. There are zero parallels between the U.S.A in Vietnam and Russia in the Ukraine. Suggest you study a map, and read up on some political history of the Ukrainian region. Then you may quote dipstick, Stephen King, w/o me ridiculing you.

    3. I think it’s clear to anybody with a modicum of commons sense that Ukraine is a country that was being used as a wealth generating mechanism for the globalist scvm of the world, and Putin seizing it would put an end to their endless graft.

      The globalists installed a puppet in Zelensky which allowed them to milk the country for everything it was worth at the expense of the Ukrainian people, as he is on the take, too. Once “big, bad Putin” decided to move in, they recoiled in horror that their graft racket would dry up, so it’s been a 24/7 media assault to generate support so they don’t lose their cash cow.

      “The best way to rob a bank is to own one.”

      “Control fraud.”

      ~William K. Black

  16. There’s no shortage of houses, just a shortage of houses available for sale, since “investors” have bought millions of them and are currently holding them off the market. IMHO, we’re now at peak housing bubble 2.0, and peak BS from the Fed/Guberment/REIC on this. What a sh*tshow.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EVACANTUSQ176N
    Housing Inventory Estimate: Vacant Housing Units in the United States (EVACANTUSQ176N)

    – There are roughly 15M vacant housing units in the U.S., according to this chart. Many are investor-owned.

    Compare this with inventory:

    https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/inventory-and-months-supply

    “NAR’s reported inventory indicates the number of properties marked as “active” on the market, as well as pending sales. When a seller lists a property, it becomes counted as inventory. When it goes under contract, it becomes a pending sale. Inventory is calculated monthly by taking a count of the number of active listings and pending sales on the last day of the month.”

    So, inventory is the same as active listings, which is completely different than the number of vacant houses! Vacant houses are owned, but not occupied, or could be rented out.

    Investor psychology:
    – Then (up until Dec., ’21 at least): Buy houses, since prices were going up at 15-20%/year and mortgage rates were around only 3%. Investors have been buying houses for the appreciation only, and not as a place to live (shelter). The Fed drove this behavior with historically low interest rates on purpose. “Wealth effect.” These houses are held off the market and either vacant or rented out to cover the mortgage payment.

    – Coming soon (Spring ’22), or even now: When prices stop going up, or especially when prices start going down, these same investors will start selling as they’re trying to time the market. This will generate a lot of new “for sale” listings and inventory will increase, by the definition, above. If only 5% (750k) of vacant or rented houses become listings (i.e. inventory), then that will more than double current supply. Current inventory is ~750k houses or less for sale in the U.S. Demand is falling due to already high prices and higher mortgage rates (declining affordability). I think I saw inventory already rising in the Feb., ’22 data. I don’t see how price can continue to increase from here with rising mortgage rates. Demand will be weak until price falls quite a bit. If (when?) we have a recession, then demand will fall a lot. We’ll see what happens next. The 2022 Spring housing season will be telling. Starts now.

    House price is inversely proportional to mortgage interest rates, since most people, ~2/3 of buyers, buy a house with a mortgage. Investors are currently ~1/3 of market, which is historically high. First time buyers are now effectively priced out.

    Mortgage rates are going up while house prices are already high. Affordability is very low and is declining. Prices will need to come down. Sales lead price. Watch pending home sales (PHS) data to be released on Fri., 3/25 a.m. PHS is a leading indicator. It should be down a lot in Feb., ‘22 due to rising mortgage rates and already high prices. We’ll see.

    The Fed is now tasked with fighting inflation. The current administration wants to get re-elected in 2024 (good luck with that!; Let’s go Brandon!) and all of the Dem. Congresspersons want to get re-elected this Nov. (’22) as well (good luck with that also due to gross incompetence and “wokeness.”, and let’s not mention inflation, which they and their left-leaning Fed caused, but I will). It will be politically difficult for the Fed to ease financial conditions at this point. They need to raise rates (a lot) to reduce inflation. Historically, interest rates have to rise ABOVE the inflation rate in order to kill it, but with ¼ point rate hikes from 0%, this is a joke, since official CPI inflation is 7.5%, and actual inflation is ~2x that at ~15%. I don’t think the Fed is serious about raising rates, but they need to at least give the appearance that they are “doing something” to reduce inflation. The Fed is trapped.

    The Fed can’t really raise rates much in a highly indebted economy, since debt payments are proportional to interest rates. Also, higher rates will kill the economy that’s addicted to cheap credit, so the Fed is trying to do the least amount possible to “fight” the inflation that they caused by easy $ policies by a “nothing-burger” ¼% rate hike. I also think they want inflation in order to reduce the national debt by inflating away at least part of it.

    The bottom line is the Fed (monetary stimulus) and Federal Government (fiscal stimulus (stimmy)) have been over-stimulating the U.S. economy for 13 years since the great financial crisis (GFC) of 2008-2009. Now the Fed’s got the inflation they’ve been trying so hard to get and have to reverse course and tighten monetary policy and financial conditions by raising interest rates (actually tightening), ending QE, reducing their “balance” sheet via QT, etc.

    Mortgage rates will likely continue to rise from here as the Fed moves forward with their incremental ¼% rate hikes, at least until “something breaks” in the economy. I don’t think rates will have to rise much for that to happen, since the economy is now very sensitive to even slightly higher interest rates.

    This is fine. The emperor has no clothes. Have a nice day.

    “You can ignore reality, but you can’t ignore the consequences of reality.”  – Ayn Rand

    “Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences.” – Robert Louis Stevenson

    “There are no rewards or punishments — only consequences.” – W. R. [William Ralph] Inge

    2. ” Humans are now hackable animals.
      The whole idea that humans have this a’ soul’ or ‘spirit’,and nobody knows what’s happening inside them, and they have free will –that’s over. ”

      Above are the words of Yuval Noah Harari, A big adviser to Klaus Schwab , and the new priest of invasion of the humans.

      This guy is so out of touch with what’s wrong with this rape of human beings by technology and the playing God , to totally engineer humans into what these freaks want. As if total control over humans by artificial hacking to turn them into the perfect socially engineered slaves , having nothing and being happy apparently is good to them.
      Using technology to free humans into a better world doesn’t occurs to them, because these are deranged psychopaths that want total control , no different than a Mao, Hitler, Stalin.
      This movement started around 1932 , at Columbia University, where a bunch of PHD’s wanted to take over by Technology.
      They wanted to erase the need for any politics , ideologies, and go for total control by Technocracy.
      This movement morphed into Agenda 21, and Agenda 30 , climate change and sustainable earth goals , and energy control of humans.

      The Medical Tyranny is a weapon to bring on digital control by vaccine passports , than all control using that pretext. A Great Reset of all systems for a Global Dictorship, of total domination of humans , totally raped of free will, freedoms, lab rats for these psychotic dangerous anti human control freaks.
      Control of all info , so fraudulent narratives can trick people into submission to this bizarre takeover.
      You judge this rotten fruit by its murder spree , looting, destruction of current systems , fraud and attack on freedoms, sovereign states and constitutional protections.
      They can fake anything if they have control of information, for the implementation of the New World Order. They have corrupted and hijacked governments, and placed Puppets in high positions by criminally rigged elections.
      They are on a time line for this power grab, and Covid was the lynchpin to advance the New World Order.
      So, 8 billion people have to reject the methods used for them to arrive at their end goal of rape by hacking humans, and enslavement.

      1. This just in …

        BlackRock’s Larry Fink says Ukraine war ‘put an end’ to globalization | Fox Business
        https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/blackrocks-larry-fink-says-ukraine-war-put-an-end-to-globalization

        (snip)

        “BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marks the end of globalization, as countries, companies and individuals reassess how dependent they want to be on others.”

        (snip)

        “‘But the Russian invasion of Ukraine has put an end to the globalization we have experienced over the last three decades,’ Fink continued. ‘We had already seen connectivity between nations, companies and even people strained by two years of the pandemic. It has left many communities and people feeling isolated and looking inward. I believe this has exacerbated the polarization and extremist behavior we are seeing across society today.'”

        (snip)

        “‘Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and its subsequent decoupling from the global economy is going to prompt companies and governments worldwide to re-evaluate their dependencies and re-analyze their manufacturing and assembly footprints — something that Covid had already spurred many to start doing,’ he wrote.”

      2. Humans are now hackable animals.

        The past two years have shown that over half are easily manipulated through fear. I don’t think that counts as “hacking”, though.

    3. red pill

      Thank you for a well researched and well written article.

      One of the best in recent memory.

      It going to be most interesting in the next 30, 60, 90 days.

      Waiting for that “Ka-boom” sound going off in the distance.

    4. “There are roughly 15M vacant housing units in the U.S., according to this chart. Many are investor-owned.”

      What’s the benefit to investors from owning empty real estate when prices are about to crater?

      Seems like a guaranteed way to lose money.

    1. The other day you asked for anything Trump ever did that ended up being wrong. While he was not perfect as president and there are a few things he did that I would have preferred he didn’t do, he was the best president of my lifetime, and that was with the entire swamp machine trying to take him down.

      2. You gotta ask, regarding Trump, what were the lasting results? Did he have the foresight to build a lasting legacy that would carry us into the future with greater freedom and prosperity? Or did all his temporary achievements get washed away in a tidal wave of leftist radicalism?

        Trump didn’t have the insight or motivation to do what really needed to be done. He needed to take a flame thrower to the leadership in every federal agency on day 1. But he didn’t drain the swamp….he sustained the swamp….and he tried to build his legacy on top of the swamp. And now it’s just sinking away into the fetid mire without hardly a trace.

        1. He needed to take a flame thrower to the leadership in every federal agency on day 1.

          Assuming he even had the power to do that, who would have filled whatever necessary positions? Remember, he was supposedly installed by Putin and too toxic for most people to align themselves with, not to mention the target of numerous investigations and two impeachments.

          1. Don’t overestimate presidential powers or underestimate the power of the Deep State.

      3. Just curious, do folks think if Trump gets back in it will be different or just be Jeff Sessions/Bob Barr/Jared Kushner/Jerome Powell 2.0?

        1. If re-elected and not having to worry about re-election, a second administration could look very different.

          1. That’s what the anointed one thought when he begged Putin for help.

            Now he’s sitting on his personal beach in Hawaii.

        2. if T… gets back in it will be different

          The country will be what the American people are. If you want something better, be better.

  20. Just filed in United States District Court, Southern District of Florida:

    TRUMP v. CLINTON et al
    Nature of Suit: 470 Other Statutes – Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations
    18:1962 Racketeering (RICO) Act

    Case #: 2:22-cv-14102
    Cased Filed: 3/24/2022

    1. I admit I have become so cynical that the moment I saw this I thought “yeah, the corrupt courts are going to shaft him because they’ve all got TDS, even the ones he appointed.” The whole club is against him.

  22. “If I had a son, he’d look like Trayvon” — Barack Hussein Obama

    Red Elephants — White Grandmother Has Arm Literally RIPPED OFF by Black Teens, Media is Silent (3/24/2022):

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/WEUMJkPp4ZfT/

    It’s over 20 minutes, the first few minutes is enough to explain the background of the story.

    P.S. remember the Waukeshau, Wisconsin Christmas parade mass murder? Remember how CNN and all the other globalist media outlets bleached his skin to make him look more white on the TeeVee?

    This is the Democrat Party.

    “They’re not sending their best”

    1. They are on a time line to bring on the Great Reset, and New World Order. Don’t remember voting for a New World Order , or what that would constitute.

      I know what Klaus Schwab , Bill Gates, Soros and Dr Fauci want the New World Order to be, but it will be interesting to find out what Biden means in the US leading in the New World Order.
      Can 75% of the States impeach a President for treason to the Constitution , and giving up the US to a invasion of a New World Order?

    2. The Ukraine conflict is ultimately about globalism vs nationalism. The globalist “elites” want regime change in Russia in order to bring about their New World Order. They’ll destroy the US and EU economies if necessary.

  25. The globalists & their Democrat-Bolshevik Quislings are going all-out under Comrade Biden to import millions of Democrat-on-Arrival dependency voters, turn red states blue, and accelerate the replacement and systematic marginalization of heritage Americans. Forward!

    Proposed Pilot Program Would Give $300 a Week to Unemployed Undocumented Immigrants in California

    https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/proposed-pilot-program-would-give-300-a-week-to-unemployed-undocumented-immigrants-in-california/2902811/

    The program would offer $300 a week for 20 weeks to the more than 5 million people without authorization to work

    2. 5 million people without authorization to work

      So, they are admitting that there are 5 million illegals in Clownifornia?

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