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There’s Going To Be A Drop In Their Expectations

It’ Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Homebuyer demand softened further over the last several weeks, according to Redfin. ‘Buyers are becoming more discerning. They’re less willing to overpay because now they’re only facing three or four competitive offers instead of dozens. Sellers may get frustrated if home-price growth starts to slow, but they should still be able to command excellent prices for their home as long as they price appropriately and put the work in to make their home as appealing as possible. This means staging, deep cleaning, a fresh paint job and landscaping—things that were not as necessary when the market was white-hot,’ said Redfin Los Angeles real estate agent Heidi Ludwig.”

“Rising interest rates and buyer fatigue are starting to show up in San Francisco’s real estate market, with agents saying that some buyers are opting out of the race. ‘Over and over we are hearing, ‘I don’t want to get into a bidding war’ when last month we had buyers happy to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars over asking price to secure a property before rates went up,’ said Compass agent Nina Hatvany. ‘Buyers are definitely experiencing fatigue from being outbid multiple times, and then the combination of a recent rise in inventory and rates has made them more discerning about what they are willing to ‘pay up’ for, and has caused some buyers to retreat to the sidelines to wait and see if something better comes along.'”

“‘I think the first-time home buyers are the ones that are impacted the most,’ says Steve Flach with the Fresno Association of Realtors. ‘They typically don’t have the wherewithal or the reserves to come in and guarantee cash above the appraised value or possibly waive appraisal contingencies.’ People ready to make the leap and buy a home are surprised to see how much mortgage interest rates have surged in the past two months. ‘It’s like they hear a barking dog, but they don’t really pay attention to it until it bites them on the leg and when they see that bite, they’re like oh my goodness,’ says Paul Salazar of Sierra Pacific Mortgage.”

“Buyers of a typical home in metro Denver faced monthly payments 21% higher at the end of March than was the case at the start of the year, according to Zillow. Going back a full year, would-be buyers in metro Denver are now paying 42.2% more, ahead of the 38% increase averaged nationally. As big as Denver’s monthly payment increase is, other areas are higher. Dallas, Phoenix and Atlanta monthly payments are up around 48% over the past year, while increases in Nashville, Tenn., Tampa, Fla., and Las Vegas top 50%.”

“If there is a plus side, it is that higher costs have reduced the competition and boosted supply. The inventory of homes available for sale in metro Denver grew 30.5% between February and March, according to Zillow.”

“According to Zillow, there are five major metropolitan areas in the United States where new homeowners are paying 50 percent or more on their mortgage than a year ago. Topping the list is Austin, Texas, where the current average monthly mortgage payment is $2,299. That is a 63.2 percent increase compared to the same time last year. The other places where plus-50 increases have registered are all along the southern portion of the U.S.: Raleigh (54.3 percent increase), Tampa (52.3 percent), Las Vegas (51.5 percent) and Nashville (50.4). The lowest mortgage payment increase in all 50 major U.S. metropolitan markets belongs to Baltimore, at 27.6 percent.”

“Michael C. Hall has just sold his West Village digs at a loss. The actor bought the two-bedroom, two-bathroom killer condo for $4.28 million in 2016. It just sold for $4.1 million, or a $180,000 loss, according to property records.”

“The deceleration in the Toronto-area real estate market continues as buyers and sellers come to grips with the most recent interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada. ‘I’m hearing a lot of ‘wait-and-see,’ says real estate agent Manu Singh of Right at Home Realty Inc. ‘They’re feeling a bit paralyzed.’ Investors who buy older condos and renovate them for resale can command a premium, but some of those are languishing longer than in the past, says Elli Davis, real estate agent with Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. ‘I think there’s going to be a drop in their expectations.'”

“Lenders to collapsed co-living company The Collective are likely to face losses running into the tens of millions, according to administrators to the company. A report released this week from partners at FTI, which is managing the administration of parts of The Collective group, said unsecured creditors to the company were owed as much as £66M. Those creditors are unlikely to receive a payout based on proceeds from selling the assets of the companies in administration, the report said.”

“Household applications for credit, which includes home loans, personal loans and applications to change power provider, dropped for the third quarter in a row, Equifax New Zealand managing director Angus Luffman said. In the first three months of the year, demand for loans was down 32 per cent compared to for the first three months of 2021, Luffman said. Applications for home loans was down 42 per cent.”

“Lyn McMorran, chief executive of the Financial Services Federation said the lending industry had been hit by a double-edged sword of higher living costs, and government red tape. Not only were lenders getting fewer applications, but more stringent responsible lending regulations had resulted in fewer applications being approved. ‘Lenders are seeing drastic reductions,’ McMorran said.”

“Chinese property shares have faced heavy selling pressure over the past two days as investors expressed discontent with the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) decision to put off an anticipated cut of the loan prime rate (LPR). The debt crisis of several property giants, not least Evergrande, has hurt homebuyer confidence, including concerns they won’t be able to receive their prepaid flats on time.”

“Last month, Chinese property stocks were under pressure after some said they would not be able to publish their annual results for 2021 as required by regulators by the end of March. Trading of these companies’ shares in Hong Kong were suspended from April 1. As of Thursday, six property developers including Evergrande and Sunac have still been unable to release unaudited results. Nine others have released their unaudited accounts while 23 have released their audited results.”

“‘For those developers that reported results on time, the overall performance was poor and missed the market’s and our expectations,’ said Lung Siufung, a property analyst at CCB International Securities. ‘Their core profit declined by 15% on average in 2021 and missed expectations by 20%, mainly due to slower sales and lower profitability.'”

This Post Has 153 Comments
  1. ‘Over and over we are hearing, ‘I don’t want to get into a bidding war’ when last month we had buyers happy to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars over asking price to secure a property before rates went up’

    Last month = winnahs!

    1. “last month we had buyers happy to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars”

      Lies lies lies…

      1. I see 5%+ cuts every day in my Redfin filter email. In another year it may even be interesting at this rate.

        1. With redfraaud….. you count on the fact they understated the decline by half or more.

          Seattle, WA Housing Prices Crater 19% As Appraisal And Mortgage Fraud Saturate Seattle And Vancouver, BC Area

          https://www.movoto.com/wa/98129/market-trends/

          As a noted economist explained, “The leading cause of personal bankruptcy is the 15 and 30 year mortgage.”

      2. The house next door to me just sold a month ago (in LA). I thought the asking price was high by about 200K. It sold for 300K over asking.

        The bigger the bubble, the bigger the crash. But everyone has to acknowledge that inventory is still at all-time lows, pretty much everywhere in the country. This will likely take years to play out.

        1. Prices in my so so San Diego neighborhood are still pushing higher.

          A house around the corner just sold for 1.2 million after a week on the market. The houses coming onto the market now have asking prices of 800-900$/sq ft. A 1100 sq ft 3/2 on @ small lot with a weed filled front yard just went on the market for 1 million. The estimated mortgage payment on realtor.com is 4700$/month and that’s with a 3.1% mortgage. If I put todays 30 year fixed rate into calculator, the monthly payment is 5,600$ including taxes. That’s 67k per year where the median family income is about 90k, 75% of median family income.

          Prices in my hood are now at least double.what they were at the peak of the last bubble. If I didn’t see it with my own eyes I wouldn’t believe it was possible.

        2. “I thought the asking price was high by about 200K. It sold for 300K over asking.”

          We are setting the stage for a Wiemar Republic style hyperinflation.

  2. ‘The inventory of homes available for sale in metro Denver grew 30.5% between February and March’

    That’s a shortage right there.

    1. Denver is a sh*thole.

      Today’s weather forecast: 86 degrees and dust storms with wind gusting to 55 miles per hour.

        1. It hit 92 degrees on my car thermometer and it looks like old photos of the 1930s Dust Bowl outside right now.

          “This sucker could go down”

      1. I thought you were joking. But after looking at the forecast you were not kidding. That is pretty terrible.

      2. “Today’s weather forecast: 86 degrees and dust storms with wind gusting to 55 miles per hour.”

        I suppose there’s little snow pack remaining.

        1. There is plenty of snow in the mountains. On the Front Range there is none, but at this time of the year that is expected.

          1. Indeed. Just checked, and it’s above 80% around a three state region, which is way more than the Sierra Nevada range in California.

    2. While the month over month change is significant, I’m sure the Denver inventory number goes up every year between February (winter) and March (beginning of spring selling season). What is most concerning is that this is the lowest March inventory number on record. All of the government intervention in the real estate market (eviction bans, mortgage forbearance, money printing) is going to take years to unwind.

      “(Attached) 594 represents the lowest March on record.
      The previous record was 2015 with 787 active listings.”

      https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/denver-real-estate-market/

      1. is going to take years to unwind.
        Agreed. I just checked with a buddy of mine in the Foreclosure department at a TBTF bank and they are not receiving a large number of foreclosures yet.

        1. Do you know if additional hurdles are being put in place before lenders can foreclose? I know there was something put in place before the end of the year but my understanding was that was a 60 day window. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the feds, just like with the eviction ban extensions, keep adding additional delays to prevent lenders from foreclosing. Because if I were a lender I’d have every foreclosure possible on the market right now, and that clearly isn’t happening yet.

        2. My appraiser friend said his pipeline pre-foreclosure drive by appraisals is starting to heat up fast but mostly in terrible areas unsafe for people to drive in.

      2. is going to take years to unwind

        With today’s social media influence and inflation?

        1. I’m not saying prices won’t be dropping by the end of the year. I think they likely will be. But in my opinion if one lives in an area with all-time low inventory and wants to buy somewhere around the bottom, that is a long way off.

      3. 594 represents the lowest March on record.

        During the peak of the previous crash there were about 2,000 listings in my little burg alone. I forget how many were for sale in metro Denver, but I’m sure the number was huge.

        As mortgage interest rates continue to rise, Harry Potter will be very busy conjuring new listings. There is a long way to go.

  3. The cultural Marxists who control nearly all universities in the West must redouble their efforts to enable sexual perverts & predators to gain access to young women in school bathrooms. Forward!

    ‘DON’T challenge someone using the WRONG bathroom’: ‘Woke’ Plymouth University sparks female safety fears with trans posters warning they must stay ‘silent’ if they are concerned about male-bodied student in their loo

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10742211/Plymouth-University-tells-women-not-challenge-people-think-men-using-toilets.html

  4. Brandon tells his oligarch donors & pimps that his regime has done “one hell of a job.” For them, but definitely not for the people in this country who pay the bills.

    ‘We’ve done one hell of a job’ boasts Biden at Portland Yacht Club fundraiser saying Democrats are in political trouble because Americans ‘don’t know a lot about what we’ve already done’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10741301/Weve-one-hell-job-boasts-Biden-Portland-Yacht-Club-fundraiser.html

    1. because Americans ‘don’t know a lot about what we’ve already done’
      No my A$$ is pretty sore. I have a pretty good idea what they have done.

  5. Gosh, I sure hope the cost-of-living crisis doesn’t adversely impact FBs’ ability to pay their mortgages, especially for the degenerate gamblers who just had to “get up on that property ladder” at the peak of the bubble.

    Britons tighten the purse strings as cost-of-living crisis starts to bite: Online shopping dropped 7.9% in March while fuel sales plunged 3.8% as soaring petrol and diesel costs put motorists off unnecessary journeys

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10742275/Online-shopping-dropped-7-9-March-fuel-sales-fell-3-8-amid-soaring-petrol-diesel-cost.html

    1. And wait until the mortgage interest rates on their adjustable go up.

      I wonder what the British equivalent of bologna is? …. I found it: pork luncheon meat. Gavin is going to be eating more of that.

        1. “spam spam spam”

          I used to love eating Spam in my younger days; scalloped potatoes w/ onions and seasoning, Spam and dark beer! 🙂

  6. Do you remember King Obama’s Royal Birthday Party in 2021, when they trimmed the guest list from 600+ to only 400, because CCP Flu? But they had the party anyway, because they were “sophisticated, vaccinated” guests?

    Barack Obama Calls for More Censorship: First Amendment ‘Does Not Apply to Facebook and Twitter’ (4/21/2022):

    “The First Amendment is a check on the power of the state. It doesn’t apply to private companies like Facebook and Twitter,” he said, calling for more “value judgements” on content moderation and censorship on social media.

    “While content moderation can limit the distribution of clearly dangerous content, it doesn’t go far enough,” Obama added.”

    Remember when this globalist sh*tbag referred to supporters of the First Amendment (religion) and Second Amendment (guns) as “bitter clinger?”

    “Over time we lose our capacity to distinguish between fact, opinion, and wholesale fiction. Or maybe we just stop caring,” he said.

    Obama also complained that an overwhelming flood of information made it difficult to discern the truth.

    “Our brains aren’t accustomed to taking in this much information this fast, and a lot of us are experiencing overload,” he said.”

    Remember when this globalist sh*tbag said “if I had a son, he’d look like Trayvon?” That same Trayvon who was on top of George Zimmerman (bleached by CNN to make him look less Hispanic and look more white) pounding his head against the pavement?

    “He complained there was no way to distinguish online between “a peer-reviewed article by Dr. Anthony Fauci and a miracle cure pitched by a huckster.”

    The wide variety of content on the coronavirus and vaccines, Obama said, was concerning, as some people chose not to get vaccinated.

    “People are dying because of misinformation,” he said.”

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/04/21/barack-obama-calls-more-censorship-first-amendment-does-not-apply-facebook-twitter/

    People are dying from these alleged “vaccines” that are not actually vaccines.

    Obama is the *second worst* president of my lifetime. But when he starts flapping his jaw dropping this globalist filth, he becomes a contender for first.

      1. ‘because of weakened immune systems from lockdown’
        This is a point Dr. Campbell made early. Apparently the Common Cold was much worse in England last year and people were asking him if there was a new more virulent Cold virus roaming around. There was not a new cold virus and Dr. Campbell attributed the worsening cold symptoms due to a weakened immune system.

        1. I’ve kept my immune system in shape by going about in public alot during the pandemic plus having COVID-19.

          1. Same. I did the same things I always did – wash my hands and stay away from people who are coughing and wore a face diaper as least as possible.

        2. I do not have major beef with John Campbell. I always felt he soft-pedaled things a bit too much, but excused it as a likely necessity to avoid the YT ban-hammer. Just to point out, Mr. Campbell is a professional nurse. He does have a doctorate in some field of education, but I do not refer to such folks as “Dr.” JMHO.

          1. “Dr.”

            It’s ironic that people have come to distrust the medical profession yet turn to “doctors” (e.g., a nurse educator or a chiropractor) with no expertise or specialized knowledge in the matters upon which they opine.

    1. “He complained there was no way to distinguish online between “a peer-reviewed article by Dr. Anthony Fauci and a miracle cure pitched by a huckster.”

      One is clearly misinformation. The other might actually be a cure.

    2. ” It doesn’t apply to private companies like Facebook and Twitter.”

      And when Elon Musk takes Twitter to a private company, he’s going to shove that statement right back down Obama’s throat. Libs got pwned yuge bigly and they know it.

    3. Obama tied with Carter for 2nd, but both terrible for different reasons. Brandon is the 1st. Not even close. There won’t even be another president this bad until the very last one and his name will also be George Washington , just like the first and last leaders of Rome were both named Romulus.

  7. Few things are more exhilarating than seeing Real Journalists at globalist propaganda mouthpieces getting the ax. But hey, since these DNC shills keep touting Biden’s “booming economic recovery,” finding a living wage job should be no problem at all.

    Hundreds of furious CNN+ staffers rage after it shut down three WEEKS on from launch: Fox News’ Greg Gutfeld takes potshots at his ex-colleague Chris Wallace saying, ‘BLM has done to black people what he did for CNN+’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10741797/Epic-disaster-CNN-shutdown-leaves-laid-staffers-furious-Fox-News-gloats.html

    Staff at CNN’s short-lived streaming service CNN+ have been left ‘aghast and furious’ at management after the decision to end the service after only three weeks – describing it as ‘an absolute debacle.’

    CNN’s new CEO Chris Licht – who does not officially take over until May 2 – told staff on Thursday that CNN+ was ending.

    1. Interesting factoid about Gutfeld: He attended Berkeley (but I take it he’s not a librul)

      1. I used to tape RedEye episodes to watch the next day way back when. I think it was on at 2 AM (Eastern) and Gutfeld said they got away with a lot because none of his bosses ever watched it.

        I like Malcolm McDowell’s part in Rob Zombie’s story about directing an episode of CSI: Miami (starts at 3:54.)
        Rob Zombie Reveals CSI: Miami Star David Caruso Is “Not Great With” Driving, Doors, Sitting | Oct 12th, 2010
        https://www.mediaite.com/online/rob-zombie-reveals-csi-miami-star-david-caruso-is-not-great-with-driving-doors-sitting/

  8. Let’s give these people the Taylor Lorenz treatment. Let’s do what Mad Maxine Waters said and “get in their faces.” No glowie, but any of you lone wolf types out there with a stage 4 cancer diagnosis, with nothing to lose, try taking a few of them down with you before you check out.

    Who Pushed for Lockdowns? 101 Leading Voices:

    “Who gave life to this deadly ideology which culminated in such catastrophe? Below is a sample of 101 individuals and institutions with significant, public-facing credentials who advocated for “real” lockdowns—harder, longer, or earlier than those imposed across the world in March 2020—to control Covid.

    As many have noted, journalists and health professionals are overrepresented in this group. Most lean to the political left. Even more telling is that, of all 101 individuals, not a single one appears to have been financially affected by the lockdowns they were advocating …

    many were aware lockdowns caused significant harm to others—even lethal harm—but were reassured by the fact that those harms did not affect them, personally. Many justified a “real” lockdown as being necessary to prevent further lockdowns. Presumably, this means that some may have stopped supporting lockdowns after seeing they’d failed. That said, all appear to live in states and countries that implemented strict lockdowns in March 2020, and that did not stop them from advocating stricter lockdowns …

    To be sure, this is a very tiny sample of those who promoted lockdowns on social media. Additionally, for every person who publicly advocated lockdowns, countless others quietly acquiesced while playing no role in the debate.”

    https://brownstone.org/articles/who-pushed-for-lockdowns-101-leading-voices/

    These are the names, just some of the names. Obviously someone like Bill Gates can afford a security detail, but many of these names, the middle tier ones, this is where 4chan comes in and delivers the goods.

    No glowie, but with that information, once made public, who knows what could happen?

    1. Yet though same executives gave CNN+ the green light when anyone here could have predicted its abject failure.

          1. I was under the impression that it was a merger. That said, Warner has a lot of deadwood. I recall the DC Comics has been in haircut mode for some time, probably at Discovery’s insistence.

            Regardless, CNN+’s implosion did seem to catch everyone flat footed. With the kind money that was invested in it, I think that Discovery’s board at least was aware of it’s business plan and did not object. Anyway, good riddance.

  9. Feminists vs. trans activists at “woke” universities…this is like the #ClownWorld version of the Iran-Iraq war. Let ’em both lose.

    Feminist student loses negligence case against ‘woke’ Bristol University over claims bosses backed trans activists who threatened her with ‘violence’ for saying only biological women can give birth

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10742593/Feminist-PhD-student-loses-negligence-case-against-woke-Bristol-University.html

    1. I own seven acres and am negotiating the purchase of the adjacent three acres.

      Debt is slavery.

  10. “Sellers may get frustrated if home-price growth starts to slow, but they should still be able to command excellent prices for their home as long as they price appropriately and put the work in to make their home as appealing as possible.”

    Translation:
    Sell now, or get priced in forever.

  11. Future – I think that the part-time WFH (or remote work) aspect is going to fundamentally change the way cities and neighborhoods are priced. If you can live outside the core and only drive in 1 or 2 days a week – it will change decision criteria a lot. I think that in a town like Denver (see above posting) you could have a nice little house out in Elizabeth/Parker or up towards the mountains and have a great quality of life.

    For months, managers have called three days in the office a week a hybrid-work ideal that both gives employees flexibility and packs in enough face time to cement company culture.

    For some, the three-day plan may be looking more like two, according to a leading researcher on remote work.

    A new working paper from Harvard Business School, based on research done at an organization in the summer of 2020, found that people who worked from the office one to two days a week were more productive, while achieving work flexibility without being isolated from peers.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-optimal-workweek-is-two-days-in-the-office-not-three-remote-hybrid-work-11650588893?mod=hp_lead_pos10

    1. You mean I wont have to fight the homeless on the subway to get to my soul crushing job? How upsetting

    2. Today I know someone who drove into the office to join Zoom calls.

      Hybrid makes no sense unless everyone is in the office together on the same days. I work across different teams, so the planning is near impossible to get us all together on a regular cadence.

  12. ‘…new homeowners are paying 50 percent or more on their mortgage than a year ago. Topping the list is Austin, Texas, where the current average monthly mortgage payment is $2,299. That is a 63.2 percent increase compared to the same time last year.’

    Where do I sign up for that extra 63.2 percent of last year’s income needed to buy this year in Austin?

    These real estate journalists clearly never took an economics course, and many also may have failed math.

    1. The best part of all of this, for all the FOMO types now inflicted with buyer regret, is that they are trapped, indefinetly.

      Jingle male, or suicide, is their only way out.

      At least it was cheaper than renting.

        1. I hope they lose their houses to property taxes
          I would be very concerned about my increased property taxes if my house’s appraised value was up 40-50% in 2 years.

      1. They’re currently swigging bottles of Mad Dog 20/20 bum wine while watching reruns of Property Brothers.

        “Get on the property ladder, they said. Waive the inspection, they said.”

        1. Flip or Flop girl been married like 12 times in five years now. Roast beef curtains for these used up realtards

      2. Jingle male

        I recall after the previous bust that many who took the jingle mail option were back in a house 2-3 years later. Boomerang buyers, I believe we called them.

  13. – All of the REIC / UHS sell-side articles are phony crap. REIC includes the MSM, since a good chunk of MSM revenue comes from RE interests.
    – The bottom line is that house prices are insanely high due to record low rates and other easy $ policies from central banks and gov’ts.
    – This was the + wealth effect, designed to prevent civil unrest after the globalists shipped your jobs to CCP China. How’s that working out BTW?
    – Now the central bank + gov’t.-induced inflation is too high (also leading to civil unrest), rates are going up and easy $ is being withdrawn. Enter the – wealth effect. Rising rates = falling prices. Simple math. People buy a payment.
    – Follow the $. These REIC/central bank/gov’t./globalist “people” are scum.
    – There are now going to be price adjustments across the board as the slow-motion train wreck of the bursting of “The Everything Bubble” continues apace.

      1. 4th turning theory says this crisis ends after a global war . Not a happy thought but getting more real.

        1. A lot of the lefties are chomping at the bit for a hot war with Russia, and they believe there will be no consequences on the US mainland. I would love to see their faces when they receive a letter from the draft board that begins with “Congratulations!”, and this time the girls get one too.

          1. Everyone who voted for Pedo Joe deserves to have their children and grandchildren sent to Ukrainistan and sent back home in a box.

            “Vote blue no matter who” and now go die for it.

          2. “Vote blue no matter who” and now go die for it.

            Once the draft notices start arriving in the mail, support for war will evaporate. It will be to late then.

        2. “4th turning theory”

          Not just that. The models that have been taught in top Foreign Affairs programs for generations also say that.

          The basic pattern is:
          1. A challenger rises with a new/better techno-economic paradigm while the hegemon decays.
          2. The hegemon feels threatened and responds militarily to the challenger, counting on its traditional allies.
          3. The “allies” have been waiting for their moment, and see the opportunity to withdraw some or all of their support.
          4. The miscalculation causes devastating losses to the now former-hegemon that has been replaced by the challenger. Those losses include mass casualties and destruction of their once secure homeland.

          You can bet their foreign policy people and ours all know that model. It’s as “bread and butter” to the discipline as George Kennan and the “X” article.

          Tell that to your friends with normalcy bias.

          — Lurker

  14. How bout it my friends how bout it!

    Las Vegas, NV Housing Prices Crater 26% YOY As Tidal Wave Of Inventory Hits US Housing Market

    https://www.movoto.com/nv/89118/market-trends/

    As a noted economist joked, “Elvis sightings are more credible than anything a realtor says.”

    Is everyone enjoying the instant 20% haircut on housing lately? 😂👍

  15. Russia Today — No new Spider-Man or Hulk comics for Russia (4/22/2022):

    “Marvel has reportedly sent a letter to Russian publishers, informing them that they will be suspending the sale of licenses for new comics in Russia, according to the owner of one of comic-book stores in Moscow who had spoken to several Russian publishers on Thursday.”

    https://www.rt.com/pop-culture/554329-marvel-suspends-licenses-russia/

    Oh no! Not the woke comics!

    “They’re not sending their best”

  16. Opinion piece from Robert Reich, who is part of the Clinton Murder Machine (4/21/2022):

    “failure to hold Trump accountable for what he has done would pose a far greater risk for American democracy – permanently entrenching distrust in our election system and legitimizing future battles over every contest, possibly provoking repeated rounds of violence.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/21/trump-republican-party-midterm-elections-democracy

    The 2020 election was stolen.

  17. Colorado Springs 1,421 listing this morning for sale. Is THIS that so-called shortage of inventory leading to price wars MSM? Realtors are Liars
    Last Friday 1,307 listings. +8%

    1. “There were 1,361 homes sold last month, a 1.4% increase year-over-year.”

      So 1421 listings is about one month’s worth of inventory. By anyone’s definition that is a strong seller’s market.

    2. The Air Force academy can only do so much to carry Colorado Springs. Tech employment isn’t what it used to be. Big employers like HP are shadows of their former selves. I know of several people who commute from Springs to the Denver Tech Center for jobs, or who did prior to the lock downs. And that commute can be rough when it snows.

      Springs is definitely nicer than Dumver, but that’s a low bar to clear.

      1. “As one Denver broker joked, “We got buyers lined up for a haircut….. and a bath. Some are getting amputations.””

        LMFAO

      2. “As one Denver broker joked, “We got buyers lined up for a haircut….. and a bath. Some are getting amputations.””

        I am go out on a limb and say that nobody ever said that.

        1. I am go out on a limb and say that nobody ever said that.

          It’s his schtick: Things no Realtor or Broker ever said.

  18. In my neighborhood of 80 homes in the Atlanta suburbs.

    Historical data shows 2-3 sales per year.

    Last 2.5 covid years we had 0 for sale.

    My neighbor is the HOA president and mentioned that we have 3 going up for sale this week with a 4th possibly later this month.

    That’s the yearly norm in less than one month.

    1. Spotted what looked like a moving truck down the hill for a property I know is a rental. Not interested in the house though.

  19. Is that what about in that article for the average Austin mortgage at $2300 a month is laughable. I live in an Austin suburb and you can’t touch a house in my neighborhood for less than $3500 a month after putting 20% down. And, I guarantee you any first time buyer is not putting 20% down to the tune of $80,000 or more.

  20. That murderer Dr Fauci thinks the CDC should have more power than the Courts because its a public health issue.

    In Dr Fauci view , the unelected Health Authorities should have no check and balance on them and they supersede all constitutional protections under the pretense of medical emergencies.

    1. That murderer Dr Fauci

      He still wants a needle in your arm. More than one needle.

      And they are trying to raise the alarm again, claiming that cases are on the rise. Never mind there are few hospitalized. But they are still beating the drum. No white flags are being waved.

      Instead, I’m seeing headlines like: “No, the pandemic is not over”

      1. They are trying to mandate global vaccines by treaties between Countries and the UN/WHO . Call you congressperson for a no on such treaties. I think they are calling for the signing of these treaties in May.
        This is why Biden is talking global vaccination goals now.
        Seriously, this is outrageous that any population would be forced to take these vaccines that are poison. No. white flag from these killers , just a Plan B, as they cover up the death and injury and the fact the vaccines don’t work.
        So , count on a new lockdown coming along with anything else they plan on subjecting humanity to.
        Food rationing, whatever. Klaus Schwab recently declared World vaccination is necessary, as did Biden.
        In fact don’t take any pharmaceuticals if you can avoid them because the entire industry has been corrupted. They are threatening medical licences in a big way now if Doctors veer from their protocols.
        Don’t comply with these criminal psychopaths .
        The hardest part is to acknowledge that something this sinister is doing this to humanity.

        1. The must be very serious about reducing global population to 500M.

          I mentioned in another thread about taking a European vacation this year, until I saw that it would be a no go unless I get jabbed. I suspect this will spread everywhere. Want to visit Cancun, Brazil, Fiji, Thailand, etc.? Your jab papers, please.

          Food rationing.

          I think the Shanghai lockdowns/weight loss camp could be a dress rehearsal for this.

    2. Fauci is now a clear example of what happens when power goes to person’s head. Someday there’s going to be a movie about this entire debacle which infected the entire world (and I’m not referring to the Covid-19 infection).

      The black eye science and medicine suffered from this fraud and panic will last far into the future. It’s a stunning example of how easy it is to get people to behave like a mob and lose all objective thinking. I think that the internet is partially to blame for all of this.

      We are not living in a “scientific” age.

      1. “We are not living in a ” scientific” age.”
        Worse, it collusion and a plan for a small amount of Elite private parties to take over and enslave the human race after they polish off as many people
        they can by fake vaccines or medicine genocide, or even starvation.

  21. Thought I’d share: https://kutv.com/news/local/median-home-prices-exceed-600k-for-first-time-in-salt-lake-county

    ‘“With the increase in mortgage rates, we have now priced out approximately 68 percent of Utah households from the median priced house,” said Dejan Eskic, senior research fellow at the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.’

    “Despite some headlines suggesting otherwise, Utah housing analysts have said there is not a housing bubble brewing in Utah due to the state’s demographics and relatively low prevalence of investors in the market.”

  22. How bout it my friends how bout it!

    Las Vegas, NV Housing Prices Crater 26% YOY As Tidal Wave Of Inventory Hits US Housing Market

    https://www.movoto.com/nv/89118/market-trends/

    As a noted economist joked, “Elvis sightings are more credible than anything a realtor says.”

    Is everyone enjoying the instant 20% haircut on housing lately? 😂👍

      1. Was that ever a real alarm? Ah-ooogah! Or was it a Hollywood dub much like the screech of the American Bald Eagle when in fact it’s the Red Tailed Hawk that makes that sound. The Bald Eagle makes a chirp sound much like a seagull.

          1. I watched one of those awhile back, and the eagle had some recent newborns. I guess mom decided that she didn’t have the energy to hunt and feed three of them, so she pushes one of them out of the nest, and it was struggling to hold on until mom picked at its legs. See ya in the next life!

  23. Now here was a knee slapper: “Will Disney leave Florida? How the company might respond in feud over special status”

    Leave Florida? Are they planning on crating their theme parks and resorts, and moving them to another state? Could they even find a parcel big enough to recreate it? Not to mention the billions it would cost.

    What Disney needs is to lose its autonomy and have a visit from the local property tax assessor. I think a billion dollar property tax bill sounds about right. And a mile long punch list of code violations would be good too.

    1. And go where? They have it too good in Florida.

      Don’t bite the hand that feeds you. That’s prolly the biggest lesson, but I doubt they will learn.

    2. I saw the Colorado governor stepped up to welcome Disney. Sounds about right. Colorado would probably only need to boot a few cattle ranches to give enough land to Disney, no problem for Democrats.

      1. There is a wee problem with the winters here. I doubt a themepark here could operate for even 6 months out of the year. It can also get crazy windy here at any time.

        Imagine booking a Spring Break trip, only to arrive and find that the the high is 28F and there is half a foot of snow. It could also be nice, there is just no way of knowing in advance.

        Colorado’s governor was virtue signaling. It would never happen.

          1. Bulldozing Disneyworld would be the mother of all write offs. I have read that it is estimated that it would take about $14B to recreate it, not to mention the amount of time.

            Anyway, the current Narrative is that the Reedy Creek Improvement Corp or whatever it’s called has close to $2B in outstanding bonds which would become a liability for local government. Nothing some extra property taxation couldn’t remedy, I think.

            Disney has dug itself into a deep hole. Imagine what a nice recession and some customer blowback could do to theme park attendance down the road.

          2. Back in the 80s the locals down here said Walt Disney and John MacArthur shook hands on the deal after the went skinny dipping in a pond which is now in PGA National.

            Walt Disney World almost set up shop in Palm Beach Gardens

            By: T.A. Walker
            Sep 29, 2021

            Location would have been what is currently PGA National, Mirasol neighborhoods

            Disney toured land owned by billionaire philanthropist John D. MacArthur, who had just founded Palm Beach Gardens. He shook hands with MacArthur to build the theme park on 320 acres along PGA Boulevard. Wednesday, Chopper 5 flew above where the parks would be located, above the PGA National and Mirasol neighborhoods.

            The agreement called for Disney to provide the entertainment and MacArthur the land and the financing. But the deal fell through when Disney’s brother, Roy, wanted more land. Roy Disney handled the business side of the company and didn’t want to be crowded out by other businesses like they were at Disneyland in Anaheim. Roy Disney asked for more land, which infuriated MacArthur, and the deal fell through, according to reporting from the Palm Beach Post.

            “As you can see on this map, we have a perfect location in Florida, almost in the center of the state,” Walt Disney said.

            Walt and Roy Disney turned their sights on Orlando because of cheap swampland (just over $80 an acre) and a climate farther away from the chance of hurricanes — and location, location, location.

            https://www.wptv.com/lifestyle/taste-and-see/walt-disney-world-almost-set-up-shop-in-palm-beach-gardens

  24. This is the part where you’re gonna not have any food, because this is the Democrat Party:

    “The crash near the General Mills plant comes after a string of food processing plants have been set ablaze across the United States over the past six months amid soaring food prices and historic inflation.

    On August 11, Tyson Foods Inc TSN.N meat-processing plant in Kansas caught fire causing significant damage. The plant was subsequently indefinitely shut down despite providing approximately 6 percent of the US supply chain’s beef. Analysts warned the closure of the facility would catastrophically impact market prices nationwide.

    Days later, on August 23, Patak Meat Products, a meat processor in Cobb County, Georgia was set ablaze. The temporary closure of the facility, a family-owned business had minimal impact on the national food supply chain.

    On Sept 13, a third food plant was set on fire. JBS beef production plant in Grand Island, Nebraska, which processes 5 percent of the nation’s beef, was reportedly aflame for nearly 15 hours. Firefighters resorted to employing aerial devices and three engine companies to isolate the fire.

    On February 22, Shearer’s Food Processing Plant in Hermiston, Oregon, which supplies a large portion of the western United States with potato chips, burned down.

    On March 16, a Walmart facility in Indianapolis, Indiana was set aflame. The Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives bureau’s National Response Team is reportedly investigating the cause and origin of the fire.

    On April 11, a fire demolished East Conway Beef & Pork. Just two cows were killed. Firefighters spent 16 hours hosing down the rubble, the Conway Daily Sun reports.

    Plane Crashes Near General Mills Food Plant Amid Outbreak Of Fires In Food Processing Facilities Across The Nation
    By Alicia Powe
    Published April 22, 2022 at 12:15pm
    605 Comments

    A small plane killed two people as it crashed near a General Mills plant in Georgia on Thursday night.

    The plane reportedly exploded on impact and came close to demolishing the cereal manufacturer’s facility.

    “Obviously this was a devastating crash and there are no survivors,” Covington police Capt. Ken Malcolm told the press following the collision. “We are working on a lead to determine who the victims were in the crash.”

    “According to witnesses, they believe the plane was having trouble gaining altitude. They could hear that there was engine trouble,” he continued. “Suddenly the plane veered to the right and immediately came straight down and crashed into the lot behind us. This is the General Mills plant that produces cereal here in our area. The plane went down in an isolated area here on the lot behind us in an area where they store tractor-trailers. The plane came down into four, what appear to be empty, trailers.”

    TRENDING: HE’S FINISHED: GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy Released Statement Saying NYT Authors Misquoted Him on Pushing Trump from Office — THEN THEY RELEASED THE AUDIO

    “The fact that it didn’t crash into the plant, saved many lives,” Malcolm added. “Our job is to contain the scene, turn over the scene to the [Federal Aviation Administration].”

    General Mills issued a statement following the incident, assuring, “No employees were harmed and we’re partnering with the FAA and local law enforcement.”

    According to law enforcement officials, the aircraft, a Cessna twin-engine plane, crashed approximately 35 miles east of Atlanta in an isolated parking lot near an industrial plant off Interstate 20, nearly demolishing the General Mills plant.

    The FAA issued a statement noting that the incident is undergoing investigation.

    The plane crashed at around 7 pm, the FAA confirmed, adding, “We don’t have additional information at this time.”

    PLANE CRASH: Covington police confirming a plane crash near the General Mills Plant. 6 tractor trailers currently on fire. Officials have yet to determine if plane was landing or taking off.
    📸credit: @TayyThePrayAway @CBS46 pic.twitter.com/XraXFELhDs

    — shon gables cbs46 (@shongables) April 21, 2022

    The crash near the General Mills plant comes after a string of food processing plants have been set ablaze across the United States over the past six months amid soaring food prices and historic inflation.

    On August 11, Tyson Foods Inc TSN.N meat-processing plant in Kansas caught fire causing significant damage. The plant was subsequently indefinitely shut down despite providing approximately 6 percent of the US supply chain’s beef. Analysts warned the closure of the facility would catastrophically impact market prices nationwide.

    Days later, on August 23, Patak Meat Products, a meat processor in Cobb County, Georgia was set ablaze. The temporary closure of the facility, a family-owned business had minimal impact on the national food supply chain.

    On Sept 13, a third food plant was set on fire. JBS beef production plant in Grand Island, Nebraska, which processes 5 percent of the nation’s beef, was reportedly aflame for nearly 15 hours. Firefighters resorted to employing aerial devices and three engine companies to isolate the fire.

    On February 22, Shearer’s Food Processing Plant in Hermiston, Oregon, which supplies a large portion of the western United States with potato chips, burned down.

    A boiler fueled by natural gas allegedly exploded, setting the plant on fire and injuring several employees.

    A #fire and #explosion were reported at a food processing plant of Shearer’s Foods in #Hermiston, #Oregon… 2 people injured.

    pic.twitter.com/PlZlj6UGi1

    — Chaudhary Parvez (@ChaudharyParvez) February 23, 2022

    On March 16, a Walmart facility in Indianapolis, Indiana was set aflame. The Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives bureau’s National Response Team is reportedly investigating the cause and origin of the fire.

    On April 11, a fire demolished East Conway Beef & Pork. Just two cows were killed. Firefighters spent 16 hours hosing down the rubble, the Conway Daily Sun reports.

    On April 13, a massive fire at the Talyor Farms Processing Facility in Salina, California was ignited, burning down nearly 85 percent of the 225,000 square foot building. The California agriculture company supplies salad kits in grocery stores nationwide.

    On April 15, China-owned US pork producer, Smithfield Foods, shut down its operations in South Dakota. the plant Chinese billionaire owner Wan Long, claimed the US facility warranted closure amid the threats presented by COVID-19.

    Plane Crashes Near General Mills Food Plant Amid Outbreak Of Fires In Food Processing Facilities Across The Nation
    By Alicia Powe
    Published April 22, 2022 at 12:15pm
    605 Comments

    A small plane killed two people as it crashed near a General Mills plant in Georgia on Thursday night.

    The plane reportedly exploded on impact and came close to demolishing the cereal manufacturer’s facility.

    “Obviously this was a devastating crash and there are no survivors,” Covington police Capt. Ken Malcolm told the press following the collision. “We are working on a lead to determine who the victims were in the crash.”

    “According to witnesses, they believe the plane was having trouble gaining altitude. They could hear that there was engine trouble,” he continued. “Suddenly the plane veered to the right and immediately came straight down and crashed into the lot behind us. This is the General Mills plant that produces cereal here in our area. The plane went down in an isolated area here on the lot behind us in an area where they store tractor-trailers. The plane came down into four, what appear to be empty, trailers.”

    TRENDING: HE’S FINISHED: GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy Released Statement Saying NYT Authors Misquoted Him on Pushing Trump from Office — THEN THEY RELEASED THE AUDIO

    “The fact that it didn’t crash into the plant, saved many lives,” Malcolm added. “Our job is to contain the scene, turn over the scene to the [Federal Aviation Administration].”

    General Mills issued a statement following the incident, assuring, “No employees were harmed and we’re partnering with the FAA and local law enforcement.”

    According to law enforcement officials, the aircraft, a Cessna twin-engine plane, crashed approximately 35 miles east of Atlanta in an isolated parking lot near an industrial plant off Interstate 20, nearly demolishing the General Mills plant.

    The FAA issued a statement noting that the incident is undergoing investigation.

    The plane crashed at around 7 pm, the FAA confirmed, adding, “We don’t have additional information at this time.”

    PLANE CRASH: Covington police confirming a plane crash near the General Mills Plant. 6 tractor trailers currently on fire. Officials have yet to determine if plane was landing or taking off.
    📸credit: @TayyThePrayAway @CBS46 pic.twitter.com/XraXFELhDs

    — shon gables cbs46 (@shongables) April 21, 2022

    The crash near the General Mills plant comes after a string of food processing plants have been set ablaze across the United States over the past six months amid soaring food prices and historic inflation.

    On August 11, Tyson Foods Inc TSN.N meat-processing plant in Kansas caught fire causing significant damage. The plant was subsequently indefinitely shut down despite providing approximately 6 percent of the US supply chain’s beef. Analysts warned the closure of the facility would catastrophically impact market prices nationwide.

    Days later, on August 23, Patak Meat Products, a meat processor in Cobb County, Georgia was set ablaze. The temporary closure of the facility, a family-owned business had minimal impact on the national food supply chain.

    On Sept 13, a third food plant was set on fire. JBS beef production plant in Grand Island, Nebraska, which processes 5 percent of the nation’s beef, was reportedly aflame for nearly 15 hours. Firefighters resorted to employing aerial devices and three engine companies to isolate the fire.

    On February 22, Shearer’s Food Processing Plant in Hermiston, Oregon, which supplies a large portion of the western United States with potato chips, burned down.

    A boiler fueled by natural gas allegedly exploded, setting the plant on fire and injuring several employees.

    A #fire and #explosion were reported at a food processing plant of Shearer’s Foods in #Hermiston, #Oregon… 2 people injured.

    pic.twitter.com/PlZlj6UGi1

    — Chaudhary Parvez (@ChaudharyParvez) February 23, 2022

    On March 16, a Walmart facility in Indianapolis, Indiana was set aflame. The Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives bureau’s National Response Team is reportedly investigating the cause and origin of the fire.

    On April 11, a fire demolished East Conway Beef & Pork. Just two cows were killed. Firefighters spent 16 hours hosing down the rubble, the Conway Daily Sun reports.

    On April 13, a massive fire at the Talyor Farms Processing Facility in Salina, California was ignited, burning down nearly 85 percent of the 225,000 square foot building. The California agriculture company supplies salad kits in grocery stores nationwide.

    On April 15, China-owned US pork producer, Smithfield Foods, shut down its operations in South Dakota. the plant Chinese billionaire owner Wan Long, claimed the US facility warranted closure amid the threats presented by COVID-19.

    Earlier this week, on April 19, a fire destroyed the headquarters of Azure Standard, the nation’s primary supplier of organic and healthy food. The cause of the fire remains unclear.”

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/04/plane-crashes-near-general-mills-food-plant-amid-outbreak-fires-food-processing-facilities-across-nation/

    Fiery, but mostly peaceful?

    Is that right, globalist @ssholes?

    France 1789 v2.0 is coming your way, sh*tbags. Get ready to die globalist scum…

      1. “Post too long, Ben please edit this for clarity. Thank you!”

        Nah leave it.

        It will take people’s minds off of how hungry they are when they come back later to read it.

    1. “This is the part where you’re gonna not have any food, because this is the Democrat Party:”

      “It’s Going to be Real,” President Biden on War-Related Food Shortages

      March 25, 2022

      Bloomberg’s Josh Wingrove reported yesterday that, “President Joe Biden said that the world will experience food shortages as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and production increases were a subject of discussions at a Group of Seven meeting on Thursday.

      “‘It’s going to be real,‘ Biden said at a news conference in Brussels. ‘The price of the sanctions is not just imposed upon Russia. It’s imposed upon an awful lot of countries as well, including European countries and our country as well.’”

      https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2022/03/its-going-to-be-real-president-biden-on-war-related-food-shortages/

  25. Would this be a good time to stand back and stand by while waiting for stonks to reach the bottom of the CR8R?

    1. The Financial Times
      Markets Briefing Equities
      US stocks tumble 2.8% as investors gird for higher interest rates
      Biggest one-day fall for S&P 500 since March comes after Fed takes tougher stance on inflation
      The Cboe’s Vix volatility index climbed to a one-month high of 28.3
      © AP
      Francesca Friday in New York and Naomi Rovnick in London
      9 hours ago

      US stocks tumbled on Friday with the S&P 500 registering its biggest one-day loss since March as traders anticipated central banks on both sides of the Atlantic raising interest rates to curb inflation.

      The 2.8 per cent decline in the benchmark S&P 500 came a day after Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell said a 0.5 percentage point interest rate rise was “on the table” in an effort to combat soaring inflation. The weekly decline was also 2.8 per cent.

      The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 2.6 per cent, for a 3.8 per cent weekly decline as investors pulled out of growth stocks as inflation expectations have surged.

      The US 10-year break-even — a closely watched gauge of market inflation expectations over the next decade — climbed to 3.08 per cent on Friday, its highest level in at least two decades.

    2. Do all CR8Rs even have bottoms?

      Markets
      Dow plunges more than 900 points for its worst day since 2020, falls for a fourth straight week
      Published Thu, Apr 21 2022 6:02 PM EDT
      Updated Fri, Apr 22 2022 7:49 PM EDT
      Tanaya Macheel
      Yun Li

      Stocks plunged on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffering its worst one-day loss since the throes of the pandemic, as the latest raft of corporate earnings and the prospect of rising rates spurred a wave of selling.

      The Dow fell 981.36 points, or 2.8%, to 33,811.40. The S&P 500 was 2.8% lower at 4,271.78, for its worst day since March. The Nasdaq Composite declined by 2.6% to 12,839.29. Friday’s loss was the biggest for the Dow since Oct. 28, 2020.

      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/21/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

    3. Cutter Family Finances
      An Inverted Yield Curve…Why It’s Important To You!
      By JEFFREY CUTTER
      Apr 22, 2022

      It’s been said that life imitates art—or was it art imitates life? This is one of those deep philosophical questions in life. And I had the joy of debating it recently with Phoebe on our way to opening day for the Red Sox last week. She’s now finishing up her senior year in high school and then on to greater things as she begins to conquer the next chapter of life at Worcester Poly Tech. On our way in to Fenway, she brought up an art class that she took a few years back and we chatted about colors—in particular, the topic of inverted colors. Did I know that the opposite of the color red is green? Well, I do now. Red and green are colors that appear opposite of each other on the color wheel.

      Hmmm…she got me thinking.

      Interestingly enough, the term “inverted” is a hot topic in the world of finance today too. By this I’m talking about something called an “inverted yield curve,” and it’s a pretty big deal. It just might signify the possibility of an impending recession here in America. In particular, it’s the US Treasury yield that has inverted, and this is often a warning sign.

      So, what is an inverted yield curve? Investopedia describes the term “yield” as the annual net profit that an investor earns on an investment. The interest rate is the percentage charged by a lender for a loan. An inverted yield curve describes the unusual drop of yields on longer-term debt below yields on short-term debt of the same credit quality.

      Think of it this way. A yield curve is a line that plots yields (interest rates) of bonds of the same credit quality but differing maturities (duration). The most closely watched yield curve is US Treasury debt. Historically, protracted inversions of the yield curve have preceded recessions in the United States. An inverted yield curve reflects investors’ expectations for a decline in longer-term interest rates as a result of a deteriorating economic performance.

      An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term debt instruments have higher yields than long-term instruments of the same credit risk profile. This is a fairly unusual occurrence, and it tends to reflect bond investors’ expectations for a decline in longer-term interest rates. Longer-term debt, such as 10-year and 30-year government bonds, usually has higher yields than short-term debt such as two- and five-year bonds. The idea here is that investors are compensated for keeping their money locked up for longer.

      Usually, the yield curve slopes upward, reflecting the fact that holders of longer-term debt have taken on more risk. A yield curve inverts when long-term interest rates drop below short-term rates because investors expect short-term rates to decline in the future, typically as a result of impaired economic performance. Such an inversion has served as a relatively reliable recession indicator in the modern era. Because yield curve inversions are relatively rare yet have often preceded recessions, they typically draw heavy scrutiny from financial markets participants.

      An inversion can mean that investors expect central banks will need to cut interest rates in response to a recession, perhaps after tightening monetary policy too quickly. Interestingly enough, the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates as many as eight times this year. Folks, we follow the US Treasury yield curve because it has been a reliable predictor of recessions in the world’s largest economy.

      As of this writing, yields on five-year Treasuries is around 2.64 percent, compared with 2.58 percent for 30-year Treasuries. This hasn’t happened since 2006. We also want to keep an eye on the difference between two-year and 10-year Treasuries, which is also on the brink of inverting. The inversion of two-year and 10-year Treasury yields has been followed by a US recession every time it has happened in the last 50 years. The recession typically follows within 18 months.

    4. Markets Are Reading the Yield Curve Inversion All Wrong. What It Really Means.
      COMMENTARY
      By Ashwin Alankar
      April 15, 2022 2:45 am ET
      Dreamstime
      About the author: Ashwin Alankar is the head of Global Asset Allocation at Janus Henderson Investors.

      The recent trend by the market to frame new developments in a negative light received an assist early this month when the yield of the 2-year U.S. Treasury note briefly rose above that of the 10-year. This was the first inversion between these two maturities since a blip during the height of the 2019 U.S.-China trade war. On cue, bears emerged from hibernation, calling for imminent recession. The driver of inversion was the Federal Reserve’s hawkish about-face as it grapples with 6.4% year-over-year core inflation. With the U.S. central bank having more-than doubled its own expectations for the number of 25 basis point rate hikes in 2022—from three last December to seven at its March meeting—investors grew concerned that the Fed would live up to its reputation as the killer of expansions.

      We interpret the inverted yield curve differently. Much of the market’s consternation is premised on the notion that the Fed has lost credibility due to its glaringly bad call on transitory inflation and taking its eye off its dual mandate by also prioritizing asset prices. But if the market thought the Fed had truly lost its way, we’d now be witnessing a steepening—not a flattening—yield curve. The fact that yield increases on Treasuries with maturities of 5 years and longer have not kept pace with the 2-year, in our view, means that the market sees the Fed’s approach to controlling inflation as credible. Even when taking into consideration the Fed’s newfound inflation-fighting chops, forward markets imply that real rates—nominal yields minus inflation—will remain very accommodative—likely well below 1.0%. Implicit in these market signals is the idea that not only should the Fed make inroads in combating inflation, but it can do so without condemning the U.S. economy to certain recession as it begins carefully tapping the brakes on the economy.

      When “Bad” News is Actually “Good”

      While the yield curve may have a notorious reputation among market bulls, this predictor of gloom—along with other leading indicators—often misses the mark. Still, the logic for an inversion signaling a cooling economy is clear: Facing inflationary pressure, a central bank raises policy rates which, in turn, pushes yields on short-dated Treasuries higher as these securities are more tethered to the official rate. The higher cost of capital for households and corporations resulting from higher rates should constrain future economic activity. Lower economic growth is then reflected in falling yields on longer-dated Treasuries. If short term borrowing costs are expected to rise too aggressively, the yield curve may invert as investors brace for recession.

      Presently, we believe the flat yield curve is reflecting something quite different from recession. Rather, it suggests that the market appears to be taking the Fed at its word. The roughly 2.5% on the 2-year note is, if anything, perhaps slightly less than what we’d expect to see if the Fed follows through on its recent forecast of raising rates between nine and 10 more times between now and the end of 2023. Also, the considerable gap that emerged between Fed forecasts and rate hike expectations by futures markets as inflation accelerated has narrowed in recent weeks. Shorter-term inflation expectations have fallen over 100 bps from their peaks and longer-term expectations covering the period from 2027 to 2032 have remained anchored near 2.5%. All of this leads us to believe that the market thinks the Fed has a fighting chance in reining in prices and hence containing the rise in longer term interest rates leading to a flatter near inverted yield curve. And this is what you want to see—the Fed’s plan to raise short term rates is keeping long term inflation expectations in check. This “inversion” is “good”.

      Regime Change

      To be sure, the primary driver behind the yield curve’s inversion is the speed at which shorter-dated Treasuries have priced in the Fed’s hawkish pivot. Other asset classes have not been immune. In addition to intermediate Treasuries declining 5% year-to-date through April 6 (an 18% annualized pace), rate-sensitive growth stocks, as measured by the Russell 1000 Growth Index, have slid over 11%, far outpacing the losses registered in broader U.S. equities.

      The market has long known that the Fed would eventually have to change policy. What it did not expect was how soon regime change would occur and how pronounced the shift from extreme quantitative easing to very real quantitative tightening would be. Getting caught off-guard at such moments is what leads to tail-risk events as defined by four-to-five standard deviation moves in asset prices as investors scramble to adjust models for a materially higher cost of capital.

      This shift marks the end of the era of extremely cheap money. But here, too, perspective is needed. Real rates—the main determinant in influencing corporate and household borrowing decisions—remain negative across most of the developed world, ranging from -0.17% in the hawkish U.S. (as measured by 10-year Treasuries) to -2.3% and -2.7% in Germany and the UK, respectively. Shorter-dated real yields are more deeply entrenched in negative territory as they reflect acute near-term inflationary pressure. These levels hardly qualify as tight money.

      https://www.barrons.com/articles/markets-are-reading-the-yield-curve-inversion-wrong-fed-inflation-51649969100

  26. Very nice article for understanding Mr Market’s protracted big freakout moment underway…
    ==========================
    What Do Bond Yields Signal about the Economy?
    April 20, 2022
    By Praew Grittayaphong

    The topic of bond yields has been frequently discussed since the Federal Open Market Committee in late 2021 and early 2022 began indicating that it would soon start making monetary policy moves that could affect bond yields. The FOMC raised the target for the fed funds rate in March and said further increases were likely to be appropriate.

    But what exactly do people mean when they talk about bond yields? A bond yield is a numerical representation of a bond’s returns to a bond purchaser. A “yield curve” is used to get a sense of investors’ risk assessment. Why are the yields an important indicator for investors?

    Understanding Bond Yields

    First, let’s look at bonds. A bond is an instrument that pays one or more fixed payments at specified times. Selling a bond is a way by which the seller borrows from the buyer—or the buyer lends to the seller.

    For that reason, it is important for the investors to consider the amount of compensation they will get in return. Looking at a bond’s yield is one way to do so.

    There are multiple definitions and ways to calculate the bond yield, including current yield and yield to maturity.

    https://www.stlouisfed.org/open-vault/2022/apr/what-bond-yields-signal-about-economy

  27. The Hill — US races clock to ship weapons to Ukraine (4/23/2022):

    “Having a continuous flow of just supplies and munitions, like ammunition, is critical,” said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

    “You know, it’s not very high visibility, it’s not very exciting, but that’s what keeps armies functioning”

    Mark Cancian do you have children or grandchildren? Are they in Ukraine now?

    “Eight to 10 flights a day are going into the theater, and not all of those flights are American flights, but most of them are. And every single day, including this day, there has been ground movement inside Ukraine. So we have seen no slowing down,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said Thursday”

    John Kirby do you have children or grandchildren? Are they in Ukraine now?

    “Retired Army Lt. Gen. Terry Wolff will serve as the liaison between U.S. defense companies, the administration and allies and partners in making sure weapons and other military equipment are provided to Ukraine.

    But the fact remains that the U.S. doesn’t have a terribly reliable way to track what happens to arms shipments after they cross into Ukraine, including what units they go to and how they’re used.”

    Terry Wolff do you have children or grandchildren? Are they in Ukraine now?

    “Ret. Navy Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, who worked with U.S. European Command to improve military relations between the U.S. and Ukraine, said Russia’s performance in the latest offensive will play a role in whether Washington is forced to switch tactics for getting weapons to Kyiv.

    “You know, do they try to remove repetitive logistics lanes? Now, if they see us repeatedly using the same logistics lanes? Do they first understand what we’re doing? And second, can they target it?” Montgomery said.

    “I think there’s a risk to our logistics lines. I assume that the United States has, and our allies and partners have developed backup plans”

    Mark Montgomery do you have children or grandchildren? Are they in Ukraine now?

    https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3460515-us-races-clock-to-ship-weapons-to-ukraine/

    “Having a continuous flow” of these globalists’ children and grandchildren into front line, boots on the ground combat in Ukraine is what we need.

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