No One Buys Because They Think The Prices Will Drop, So They Drop
A report from Housing Wire. “BJ Witkopf is a mortgage specialist with Assurance Financial: Planet Earth has has gone from a ball of molten rock to ice, and then, to the climate we have today. Just like Earth, mortgage rates and housing markets are cyclic and we’re heading into another Ice Age. Rates will not come down this year. There is no spring buying season. The ARM and IO products are the same prices as the Conventional loans. FHA, VA and USDA aren’t accepted by sellers. Investors and trust funds keep buying the bottom of the market from under the first-time home buyer. Builders do not have inventory — or workers and supplies.”
“We can all look around our office and see those people right now — hanging on by that one deal. The first quarter of 2022 has already shown us substantial drops in volume. Do not be the last one to notice your Q1 numbers were just overflow Q4 pipelines. The Fed has no plans on helping us.”
From PBS. “The Federal Reserve is poised this week to accelerate its most drastic steps in three decades to attack inflation by making it costlier to borrow. What’s more, the Fed is also expected to announce Wednesday that it will begin quickly shrinking its vast stockpile of Treasury and mortgage bonds beginning in June. ‘I liken it to driving in reverse while using the rear-view mirror,’ said Diane Swonk, chief economist at the consulting firm Grant Thornton. ‘They just don’t know what obstacles they’re going to hit.'”
From Reuters. “First Sweden, now Australia. Two central banks that had said they saw no need for rate hikes until 2023 or 2024 have eaten humble pie in the space of a week. Australia on Tuesday hiked rates by 25bp to 0.35%, a larger hike than markets had bet on and confirmed more to come in the months ahead. It also doubled inflation forecasts for this year.. It comes after Sweden last week upped rates by 25 bps and flagged more at upcoming meetings.”
From CNBC. “Mortgage rates just hit their highest level since 2009, and home prices are continuing to experience double-digit gains. It is often said in the housing market that consumers don’t buy the home price, they buy the monthly payment. That payment is at a new high, up $552 (an increase of 38%) year to date to $1,809, and up $790 (or 72%) since the onset of the pandemic.”
The Morning Call in Pennsylvania. “Dale Kessler, a Realtor who specializes in selling foreclosed homes, thinks business will be picking up this year. With the end of the foreclosure moratorium last year, Kessler, the CEO of Realty 365 in Allentown, sees a trickle turning into a flood as a backlog of cases starts making its way toward completion. He said the numbers could rise into the hundreds. ‘I’m getting some foreclosures a little bit more consistently than I have the last couple of years,’ Kessler said. ‘In quarters three and four, we should see a little bit more of an uptick. And then once we get to the first and second quarter of next year, we should start to see a little bit more of a consistent flow.'”
From ABC Action News. “Rep. Dianne Hart’s phone has been ringing a lot lately, and when she answers, she hears a similar concern — over and over again. Property insurance is skyrocketing, mortgage rates are going up, and Florida homeowners are being pushed to the brink of foreclosure. ‘You keep helping renters. What about those of us who have mortgages?’ she said they ask her. ‘When are you all going to help us?'”
From WGRZ in New York. “Just a day after Jean Hoagland came to 2 On Your Side because of a zombie home, she and neighbors have complained about to the Town of Cheektowaga for years. However, in a statement from WSFS, officials say WSFS does not own the property and doesn’t service it either. 2 On Your Side asked why WSFS would be listed in the foreclosure documents then. This was the response we got: ‘Our name is likely on it because we hold a national bank charter and owners/investors (who bought the mortgage back securities) are using our charter for legal title of the loans. WSFS acts as a Trustee on behalf of many trusts that hold various real estate properties; however, we are not involved in the decision-making process or what properties are held in the various trusts.'”
The Los Angeles Times. “Cody Barbo never thought he would want to leave San Diego. But a couple of months ago, theCEO of venture-backed startup Trust & Will relocated with his family to Dallas — a move driven by his ability to work remotely and disillusionment after attempting to purchase a house in San Diego. ‘We started doing the math in California,’ said Barbo. ‘It’s not just the mortgage. We have child-care costs, all these added costs. It is a very expensive place, long-term, to live.'”
“California lost about 262,000 residents between July 2020 and July 2021, according to the Census Bureau. Of the 10 counties nationwide with the largest population losses, four were in California. New York also had four counties on the list. San Diego County’s net population loss was well under 1% — 0.3% to be exact — of its 3.28 million residents.”
“In comparison, Los Angeles County lost nearly 160,000 people, a 1.6% decline. San Francisco shed 55,800 people, or 6.3%. Santa Clara County, which encompasses Silicon Valley, lost 45,000 people, or 2.3%. Still, this is the first time in at least a decade that San Diego County has lost population year over year, according to California Department of Finance data.”
Canadian Real Estate. “HouseSigma is a brokerage that uses a technological model to track home prices in real-time. By doing so, they are able to monitor market conditions as they change in near real-time as opposed to things like the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s (TRREB) Market Watch report, which is only reported on a monthly basis. According to the firm, in just two months from February 2022 to April 2022, there have already been significant decreases in the price of homes in Toronto and the GTA.”
“In February of 2022, detached homes in Toronto sold for an average price of $1.65 million. Now, the average price has fallen to $1.45 million, a drop of about 12%. A similar decrease was seen in the semi-detached market with a 13.5% reduction in price while condos went down by just 6.8%. The hardest hit of all was the segment of townhouses which have seen a 22% decrease in price in just under two months. At the same time, the report also shows that available listings were up by 76% and the average number of days a home spent on the market has doubled.”
“The phenomenon isn’t just limited to the City of Toronto. Almost every other area in the GTA (with the exception of Burlington) has seen price decreases. Mississauga and Brampton were both down 11% on average. Areas closest to the downtown core have retained value the most while regions further out have fallen further, such as the Municipality of Brock which saw prices fall almost 30% in the period analyzed.”
“Sudden changes in the market are often met with much emotion from both asset owners and potential buyers and some may now be feeling a bit of anxiety about just where things are headed, particularly those who bought at the recent peak prices. This can even lead to hysteria which can even make things worse for the market.”
The Daily Telegraph in Australia. “Sydney home prices have begun to fall again and more drops are expected if the Reserve Bank of Australia pushes the button on a rate hike in May or June. Growth in prices had been slowing since late 2021 and PropTrack economist Paul Ryan said the market ‘stagnated’ for much of 2022. ‘Sydney has the weakest momentum going into what will be a period of rate rises and affordability is more of an issue so, potentially, the Sydney market will be more susceptible to price falls,’ Mr Ryan said.”
“Mortgage broker Rebecca Jarrett-Dalton said rate rises were weighing on many buyers’ decision to get into the market and some were fearful of overpaying. Some buyers wanted to wait for further price falls, she added. ‘It becomes a bit self-fulfilling,’ she said. ‘No one buys because they think the prices will drop, so they drop.'”
From News Hub. “It’s now a buyer’s market in New Zealand’s main cities with new data showing the tables have turned for the housing market. Last month buyers had plenty of choices, with stock up by 70.8 percent nationally compared to April 2021. Compared to last year, the biggest increase was in Manawatu/Whanganui where stock was up 174.8 percent year-on-year. Following close behind were Wellington (up 157.3 percent year-on-year) and Hawke’s Bay (up 144.2 percent year-on-year).”
“Stock also more than doubled year-on-year in Central North Island (up 135.9 percent), Wairarapa (up 133.1 percent), Bay of Plenty (up 116.6 percent), Nelson & Bays (up 115.5 percent), Waikato (up 109.8 percent) and Otago (up 103.0 percent). Having shifted into a buyers’ market, Auckland also saw stock levels lift by 42.4 percent year-on-year, with 9990 homes available for sale in the region during April.”
Comments are closed.
‘I liken it to driving in reverse while using the rear-view mirror…They just don’t know what obstacles they’re going to hit’
How did you lose yer shack mate?
Well it all started when this crazy bashtard came zooming down the road in a limo – going backwards!
‘That payment is at a new high, up $552 (an increase of 38%) year to date to $1,809, and up $790 (or 72%) since the onset of the pandemic’
Is that a lot?
Yes it’s a lot. It’s a car payment, or gas for two trucks. Or a healthy payment on $10K of CC debt. Just three months is a new water heater. Two months is a year of car insurance. One months is kids’ shoes for a year. etc..
More tragically, it may be the grocery budget.
A reader sent this in:
‘Just got off the phone with a couple of real estate brokers and i can confirm that they are freaking the f&*$ out. Lots of agents with clients that have bought homes before they listed theirs and are now stuck. Appraisals not coming in. Buyers offering huge $ for mutual release’
https://twitter.com/CondoChris/status/1521169819449663490
I’m curious: how do you get two loans at once? Sound lending? Speaking of:
‘The ARM and IO products are the same prices as the Conventional loans’
All this lands in the offices of mortgage pimps and lying realtors. Unsupervised, unprofessional, unethical and untrustworthy.
You want to overeat at the banquet? Fine. Now it’s time to puke through your nose.
FWIW, he’s in Toronto.
All this BS talk of lack of inventory. Just where is this “lack of inventory”? I check a few locals and they are adding new listings constantly. “Lack of inventory” will be be replacing “soft landing” from 08.
“So we think of a very long time horizon,” Gorman told Fortune. “The number of listings that are on the market at any point in time are currently insufficient to meet demand and have been insufficient for quite some time. I do believe the dearth of inventory is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. I do not believe that we will be able to magically construct sufficient inventory to anywhere near meet the demand that we have today. So even in a rising interest rate environment or a rising inflationary environment or other challenges, I believe that demand today is so far outstripped by supply that even the near term is likely to continue to be strong. Speaking long term, I believe very deeply in the overall real estate market for sure.”
https://www.yahoo.com/video/great-resignation-quitters-rushing-real-190714448.html
Roe v Wade is going to be overturned by the Supreme Court.
Every Democrat Party sh*thole city is going to burn itself to the ground.
“They’re not sending their best”
Who knew that Johnny Rotten was pro life?
The Sex Pistols — Bodies:
“She was a girl from Birmingham
She just had an abortion …
MOMMY!!!
I’m not an abortion
I’m not a mass of protein
I’m not a discharge”
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1GKG01TraI
I guess the Ukie war and Jonny Depp trial are not captivating enough that they need to pull out the biggest bazooka. As usual divide and conquer, but most importantly remove the spotlight from the Fed and Feds for mismanaging the economy/monetary/immigration……
I see what you did there, globalists. The low-IQ D voters lack the intelligence to see how they’re being played.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10777531/US-Supreme-Court-overturn-ruling-legalised-abortion.html
Sofa king predictable.
This is being reported in other countries as a national ban on abortion. This isn’t just for distracting us.
reported in other countries as a national ban
Tells you who controls the media.
I predict Tinder will go out of business after Roe is overturned.
‘Our name is likely on it because we hold a national bank charter and owners/investors (who bought the mortgage back securities) are using our charter for legal title of the loans. WSFS acts as a Trustee on behalf of many trusts that hold various real estate properties; however, we are not involved in the decision-making process or what properties are held in the various trusts’
When the first wave of foreclosures hit N Arizona last decade I made an effort to dig into it. Most were Deutsche Bank for some reason. Back then the paper they would put on the door would list everything including the trusts name. Usually an unpronounceable mish mash of words and numbers. I’d even look them up on the intertubes and sometimes it would come back in some legal papers, etc. I soon discovered there were maybe thousands and thousands of these. Eventually the trusts were no longer mentioned and usually just the revolving door of servicers.
one sentence covers all misdeeds:
“Temporarily closed for remodeling”
From the PBS piece: “Chair Jerome Powell and the Fed will take these steps largely in the dark. No one knows just how high the central bank’s short-term rate must go to slow the economy and restrain inflation. Nor do the officials know how much they can reduce the Fed’s unprecedented $9 trillion balance sheet before they risk destabilizing financial markets.”
The fed barely reached 2% back in 2018 before Wall street’s proverbial wings iced-over and quit providing lift. Then it was back to ZIRP. The American economy reminds me of a loaf of Wonder enriched white bread, i.e., there’s nothing in it.
The unknown price of unprecedented.
“The fed barely reached 2% back in 2018…”
And debt levels have expanded dramatically since then. Clarity!
“The American economy reminds me of a loaf of Wonder enriched white bread, i.e., there’s nothing in it.”
Wonderful analogy… I am stealing it. 🙂
Then it was back to ZIRP.
They keep going back to the poison, trying to use it as a cure.
back to the poison
Hair of the dog, I believe.
Daly City, CA Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Bay Area Housing Inventory Skyrockets
https://www.movoto.com/daly-city-ca/market-trends/
As one desperate Bay area seller lamented, “I shouldn’t have ever bought this house. It’s riddled with defects…. and so is the mortgage contract.”
“We can all look around our office and see those people right now — hanging on by that one deal. The first quarter of 2022 has already shown us substantial drops in volume. Do not be the last one to notice your Q1 numbers were just overflow Q4 pipelines. The Fed has no plans on helping us.”
You would have to have a heart of stone to read this without laughing.
“Did you store acorns when we had them so you could sustain yourself and your employees?”
CEO: “With all that cheap easy money out there I leveraged this company right up to its scuppers while enhancing my retirement package. Happy sailing, suckers!”
“Mortgages can be streamlined in many ways to reduce cost and waste. Title companies that use the best technology to speed up the closing, cut fees and closing travel and reduce title delays are essential. Real estate agents who are full time, efficient and enhance the buying experience at less cost to buyers and sellers are necessary.”
How about buyers with a 20% down payment and realistic conforming monthly payments, e.g., principal, interest, taxes and insurance?
Mortgages can be streamlined in many ways to reduce cost and waste. Title companies that use the best technology to speed up the closing, cut fees
This is one more negative for mortgage companies as they switch loans types that no one mentions. Doing a purchase loan is much more time consuming (read expensive here) than an internal refinance or a refinance in general. And FHA purchase loans, oh yeah, they are even more time consuming, Companies like Blend (Ben had 2 articles about them in the last week) do make it streamlined as the consumer can take more control of the file. But with a new 1st time FHA buyer you are still going to have to do a lot more hand holding than you would with a serial refinancer. So in short: Volume down big, margins down big, and cost/mortgage up. Not a good time to be in the mortgage business.
“How about buyers with a 20% down payment and realistic conforming monthly payments, e.g., principal, interest, taxes and insurance?“
– Ha! Ha! Ha! Are you kidding me? 😀
– That’s so old school, so 20th century, So gauche!
– Mortgage standards were relaxed for a reason – to goose the housing market; to expand the pool of marginal buyers (suckers).
– No one remembers HB 1.0. Time for another lesson. Only this time it’s dot com crash + HB 2.0 crash + HY/IG bonds crash. Fooked I tell you. Fooked.
– Humpty Dumpty.
The FED has finally painted themselves into a corner. High inflation is forcing their hand, because if they don’t address it then they could destroy the US dollar. Without the dollar, the FED is finished.
they could destroy the US dollar
It is rather ironic, having inflated the currency enormously for years, the USD is rising.
It is rather ironic, having inflated the currency enormously for years, the USD is rising.
It is important to understand the distinction between an increase in value against other currencies vs a loss in purchasing power of the currency itself.
Yet silver and gold is the same price today as it was 10 years ago.
…. interesting.
“Mortgage rates just hit their highest level since 2009, and home prices are continuing to experience double-digit gains.
Housing prices up 19% YOY and rents up 17%, yet our Soviet-style CPI data say housing costs increased by 4.9%. This numbers must be ginned up by the same apparatchiks that told us Biden got 81 million votes.
“Housing prices up 19% YOY”
…. Unless you’re in Colorado Springs.
Colorado Springs, CO Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Excess Inventory And Mortgage Defaults Blanket Central Colorado
https://www.movoto.com/co/80904/market-trends/
Rep. Dianne Hart’s “solution” to soaring insurance costs: “So, my hope is that next year, we will fully fund that Sadowski Housing Trust Fund, we will put more money into [the State Apartment Incentive Loan program], and we will allow multi-family units to be built around the entire state,” she said.
Spoken like a true D-vermin: throw more taxpayer dollars at the problem rather than point out the true cause: the Fed and its deranged money printing turning housing into a speculative asset bubble. Allowing multifamily to be built around the state will only increase the acceleration of Florida’s ruination.
“…multifamily…”
Narrative: We’re all in this together!
‘We started doing the math in California,’ said Barbo. ‘It’s not just the mortgage. We have child-care costs, all these added costs. It is a very expensive place, long-term, to live.’”
When they fail to mention the #1 thing wrong with California – Democrat-Bolshevik malgovernance – you know they’re part of the problem.
In comparison, Los Angeles County lost nearly 160,000 people, a 1.6% decline. San Francisco shed 55,800 people, or 6.3%. Santa Clara County, which encompasses Silicon Valley, lost 45,000 people, or 2.3%.
Remember when the Comrades of Proven Worth (D) were pushing for vaccine passports to travel? Yet CA libtards fleeing the dystopia they created were free to infest their new red state homes with their failed ideology. One of these things is not like the other.
Remember when the Comrades of Proven Worth (D) were pushing for vaccine passports to travel?
Oh yes. They wanted vax passport checks on the state borders. Fortunately enough states made it clear there was no way they would allow this to be enforced that they gave up on the idea.
“Sudden changes in the market are often met with much emotion from both asset owners and potential buyers and some may now be feeling a bit of anxiety about just where things are headed, particularly those who bought at the recent peak prices. This can even lead to hysteria which can even make things worse for the market.”
Die, speculator scum.
Las Vegas, NV Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY As Broke Borrowers Slash Prices Like Hotcakes
https://www.movoto.com/nv/89124/market-trends/
As one REIT manager explained, “Residential housing is dead on the mat. There is nothing left but the crying…Let the weeping and gnashing of teeth begin.”
Oh boy!
Just like student loans.
FYI – $676M doesn’t go that far anymore…that’s not even a daily shipment of arms to da Ukraine.
“Her Saturday forum tomorrow will consider solutions and resources that are already available, including the $676 million Florida Homeowner Assistance Fund, made possible because of funding from the federal American Rescue Plan.
“They will literally bring you out of foreclosure and catch up your mortgage,” Hart said. “You know, they will pay your property taxes for you.”
Some buyers wanted to wait for further price falls, she added. ‘It becomes a bit self-fulfilling,’ she said. ‘No one buys because they think the prices will drop, so they drop.’”
Gosh, I fear that in such a scenario, we could see cascading panic-selling by FBs who overpaid, causing shacks to go bid-less and accelerating the velocity of the housing bubble implosion. This is my concerned face.
The “Oh dear” moment in time approaches for the greedy, reckless lemmings who bought at the peak of the most insane housing bubble in history. Heckova job, central bankers. FBs who get financially wiped out by their shack “investments” might be forever inoculated against relying on realtors and the globalist financial media for “advice.”
Top 10 suburbs set to face highest mortgage stress after rate hike
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/top-10-suburbs-set-to-face-highest-mortgage-stress-after-rate-hike/news-story/d4e85bf4aad0ca9c3573b13b51250be2
What will it be after all those adjustable rate mortgages charge more interest? 125% of household income? 140%?
A country almost the size of the US, with thousands of miles of coastline, but with only 25M people and somehow housing became scarce and unaffordable.
These “activists” will be coming after EVERY shack with their never-ending tax demands. As always, follow the money to see who is funding these “activists” and what globalist agenda is in play.
Los Angeles Activists Submit Signatures for $8 Billion Mega-Mansion Tax
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-02/la-activists-submit-signatures-for-8-billion-mega-mansion-tax?srnd=premium&sref=ibr3A0ff
A Los Angeles coalition that wants to increase the tax on the sale of mega-mansions and other high-value real estate to fund programs for the homeless says it has enough signatures to put the proposal on the ballot in November.
United to House LA, a citizen-led initiative, submitted documents Monday showing they’ve collected 98,171 signatures, well ahead of the more 61,000 needed to get on ballot, according to a statement. The signatures must still be verified by city officials.
I have no words……Violent 11-year-old girl is terrorizing unsuspecting people in Boston. Cops know all about her — but can’t do much because of her age
https://www.theblaze.com/news/girl-11-attacking-people-boston
Two words: Democrat Sh!thole.
Live in one at your own peril.
Massachusetts is right behind California and New York for being a democratic shit hole.
It’s difficult to imagine being retired and paying the property taxes that are levied back east.
Sue the parents/parent. Drag them all into court and make their lives miserable.
Sue the school board.
“the Suffolk students told the teens to leave the woman alone — and then the teens took aim at the students, WFXT reported.”
“At this point the slim, black juvenile female began punching [her] and knocked her glasses off her face,” the police report said, according to the station. “She then stepped on her glasses before punching her again.”
Why didn’t the Suffolk student just tell the mostly peaceful youth that she was invading her “safe space” and Climate Change was likely the reason for her violent mood swings?
Gun Free Zones
https://youtu.be/fYL0yN110go?t=41
Borrowed from elsewhere… pretty good.
“The US has been attempting to slow down the world’s overheated Capitalist Markets. First it was Chinese sanctions, then it was world Tariffs, then it was Covid, then the ship got stuck in the Suez Canal, now it’s 112 container ships backed up 100 miles off the California coast for months, now we mysteriously have inflation to slow things down, Diesel prices are delaying deliveries by land, including rail, and this is all an unforeseen accident or a bumbling miscalculation by the Fed? Really?? You’re being economically hustled and monetarily flim-flammed by those who deliberately dumbed you down by providing you with the education required to sustain the narrative of the 1%.”
More propaganda
https://www.axios.com/rich-get-poorer-inflation-17ba09f4-1006-4433-b69e-e7f211a37ef8.html
First, they say no inflation. Then inflation is low. Then inflation is transitory. Then inflation is good for you. Then it’s all corporates greed. Then it’s Putins fault. Now it’s inflation is hurting the rich! Those evil rich bastards!!!
BS!
More propaganda
Everything the MSM pushes is propaganda. Like the so called “Ghost of Kiev”, who they are now quietly admitting never existed.
If you take what they say and invert it, you are more likely to get the truth than by accepting what they say.
Hey, I heard a rumor that the chocolate ration will be increased. Things are just peachy.
Nobody will buy so prices will drop? Does that pertain to flips?
04/15/2022 Listed $2,249,000
05/12/2021 Sold $1,700,000
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/19-Brookline-Dr_Asheville_NC_28803_M62327-98563?ex=2942144968
04/14/2022 Listed $1,900,000
02/01/2021 Sold $815,000
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/12-Lone-Pine-Rd_Biltmore-Forest_NC_28803_M54465-22546?ex=2942080782
Add a little appraisal fraud fairy dust voila!;)
Andy Ngo — The #Antifa cell in Salem, Ore. has announced riot plans for Tuesday, May 3 at 6 pm PT at the Riverfront Park. @SalemPoliceDept has not released any statement about if or how they will respond if organized violence breaks out (5/3/2022):
https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1521622282015318018?cxt=HHwWhIC9nerZ8Z0qAAAA
When you buy a house in a Democrat Party shithole city, you are paying property taxes to a municipal government that sees you as nothing more than a cash cow to be milked.
“They’re not sending their best”
I was getting rid of files. Someone was looking for this a while ago (Obama staff picture), I think. Looking at these faces, I was compelled to meme. Template (no type) is on imgflip.
Ideologues…they kill me.
https://imgflip.com/i/6etvvq
Where the Home Depot gets its dimensional lumber:
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6dcb8afd7d94083dfa0f3e8f9eed80c4b19f9953ae1314ebe379fa9b6f39e8ff.jpg
Wonder what was spilled in the soil there?
This happens when saplings are bent to the ground and then continue to grow. The Indians used to do this on purpose to mark trails.
Trump 13 out of 14 in Ohio tonight with 1 race still counting and the candidate that was endorsed by you got it… Trump
I’m going to register to vote at my mother’s address in Ohio so I can vote for J.D. Vance.
It’s not like my vote for anything even matters here in Region VIII.
Abortion riots in Portland and Los Angeles last night.
“They’re not sending their best”
T R U M P
Does it seem like an unusually large number of bears have left hibernation this spring?
The Financial Times
Treasury bonds
Bond bull market ‘has come to an end’, Guggenheim’s Minerd says
Warning comes after Treasury sell-off as Fed readies bumper rate rise
Scott Minerd at the Milken Institute Global Conference in October
‘I don’t think they’re setting themselves up for a soft landing,’ Scott Minerd, Guggenheim Partners chief investment officer, said of the Fed
© Patrick T Fallon/AFP/Getty
Eric Platt and Brooke Masters in Los Angeles and Joe Rennison and Kate Duguid in New York yesterday
Guggenheim Partners chief investment officer Scott Minerd called time on the long-running Treasury bull market, warning interest rates could “trend higher for a generation” as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy to combat inflation.
The comments follow an intense sell-off in the $23tn US Treasury market, the backbone of the global financial system, sparked by hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note this week hit 3 per cent for the first time since 2018, having more than doubled since the end of 2021.
The US central bank on Wednesday is set to raise interest rates for the second time this year, with investors and analysts expecting a bumper 0.5 per cent increase — larger than the typical 0.25 per cent raise — for the first time since 2000.
…
Is now a good time to buy the dip?
Nasdaq Bear Market: 3 Growth Stocks Down 64% (or More) Just Begging to Be Bought
By Sean Williams – May 4, 2022 at 5:06AM
https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/04/nasdaq-bear-market-3-growth-stocks-down-64-to-buy/
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin and Other Cryptos Are in a ‘Bear Market.’ The Fed Might Make It Worse.
By Daren Fonda
Updated May 3, 2022 9:27 am ET / Original May 3, 2022 2:45 am ET
https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-price-ether-solana-crypto-51651516253?tesla=y
David Rosenberg: Recession in 2022 Will Drive a Bear Market
by Robert Huebscher, 5/2/22
The U.S. economy will be in recession in the second half of this year, according to David Rosenberg. Equity Investors should brace for a 30% bear market decline.
The Toronto-based Rosenberg started his own economic consulting firm in January 2020, Rosenberg Research & Associates, after working a decade as chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates. He was the opening speaker at this year’s Strategic Investment Conference, hosted by John Mauldin.
Recall, however, that Rosenberg spoke at this conference two years ago, when he proclaimed that U.S. equity market bulls were in “fantasyland.” He was wrong. The return for the S&P 500 for the following year was 56.25%. He delivered the opening keynote again last year. He forecast that inflation would subside and was bullish on government bonds and growth stocks. None of those forecasts were accurate.
Rosenberg said that the U.S. economy has been hit with health (COVID-19), war, inflation and monetary policy shocks. The next shocks will come from the housing market, followed by a “wealth shock.”
“We should all be worried,” he said.
There has never been a recession that was not accompanied by a bear market in stocks, according to Rosenberg, and the average decline has been 30%. The S&P 500 was down 13.4% year-to-date on the day he spoke.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2022/05/02/david-rosenberg-recession-in-2022-will-drive-a-bear-market
Poway, CA Housing Prices Crater 22% YOY On Plunging Demand As San Diego Area Housing Inventory Goes Through The Roof
https://www.movoto.com/ca/92064/market-trends/
As one San Diego broker advised, “Get what you can get for your house today because it’s going to be less tomorrow for years to come.”
🙂
Sonny