thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

The Economics For Investors Have Completely Blown Out

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Lotte Vonk knew that when her second child arrives in a few months, space in her suburban Chicago townhome would get tighter. They listed their home for $315,000 last week and have already had more than 20 viewings, but no viable offers. ‘Everything I know about the market has told me that the houses should be flying off the shelves,’ said Vonk. ‘When things are not selling it is either the price or the product. It was a gut rehab a few years ago, I know it isn’t the product. So it must be the price.'”

“The Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee noted that April was the first time ‘active inventory’ in the North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton metro area showed year-over-year positive growth since May 2019. Also, fewer homes for sale closed in both the single-family and condo markets, a trend that’s been ongoing for months. ‘As we’ve been anticipating, it appears that the rising interest rates and inflation are beginning to put pressure on our local real estate market,’ said Tony Veldkamp, 2022 RASM president. ‘While we’re still seeing fewer pending and closed sales when compared to last year, we are starting to see an increase in new listings and the amount of inventory of homes and condos for sale.'”

“Homebuyers tired of getting shut out in the Valley’s red hot housing market could finally be getting some relief.  ‘Every morning, I get up to check MLS (multiple listing service) to see how many homes are active and coming soon,’ said HomeSmart Realtor Angie Koehle said. ‘This morning, it was 8,800. Last year at this time, it was 3,500, so there is definitely a shift right now.’ ‘After we’ve been going at full speed for two years, going back to a regular market is going to feel like we just passed a cop at 200 mph, and now we’re slamming on the brakes,’ said Tina Tamboer, a senior housing analyst with the Cromford Report. ‘That’s kind of what it feels like.'”

“Housing inventory in the Bay Area is finally up. ‘Less phone calls, I’m seeing less offers, less activities with open houses, definitely a cool down,’ said Holly Barr, real estate agent with Compass. She said a combination of still sky-high prices, combined with a rise in interest rates and inflation is leading would be buyers to hesitate, especially in tech-stock rich Silicon Valley. ‘Interest rates are high, and my stocks, low … I can’t do that anymore,’ said Barr.”

“For fixed borrowers, CREA said the stress test just moved from 5.25 per cent to the low six per cent range, another roughly one per cent increase in a month. ‘People are nervous. They are thinking, ‘if I take on this mortgage, when mortgage rates are going up and the price to (live) is more, what is going to happen?’ said Anita Springate-Renaud, a Toronto broker with Engel & Volkers.”

“She noticed that many homes were still getting multiple offers last month, but instead of 20 offers, two or three was becoming the norm. Properties are also taking longer to sell. Homes that used to find a buyer in three or four days are now sitting for two weeks, in some cases, she said. ‘The market balance has gone from drum tight with ‘not enough supply,’ to one that resembles the 2017-19 correction period,’ said BMO Capital Markets senior analyst Robert Kavcic.”

“Steve Dickie, president of the Realtors Association of Grey Bruce Owen Sound, said that local agents are starting to again see conditions put on sales, some price reductions on listed properties and even a decrease in the number of offers on homes. ‘The conversation around offices is that it is not as frenzied as it was last year,’ Dickie said. ‘There are still lots of situations where you have multiple offers, but if you are watching the board on a daily basis every once in a while you will see a price reduction, which we haven’t seen in a long time.'”

“In Toronto, the average price of homes declined 6.4 per cent in April from the month before on a seasonally adjusted basis. It was the biggest monthly drop in that market in two years. Toronto home sale totals also declined 26 per cent from the month before. Typically in Grey-Bruce, Dickie said they see prices level off for a while before they start to go up again. ‘Even this morning I was talking to several agents and they were talking about how they had more and more listings coming up, and there are more and more listings on the real estate board on a daily basis than we had seen earlier in the year. I am trying to tell people locally to stay calm,’ Dickie said. ‘Nothing is going to crash.'”

“One of the world’s bubbliest housing markets is tilting from sellers to buyers with dizzying speed.  ‘ I think we have a group of people that kind of got caught with that market turning,’ said Bruce Joseph, founding director of Trident Mortgage Investment Corp. ‘We just came out of a very aggressive sellers’ market, and moved very quickly into a buyers’ market, so their strategy made a lot of sense until really the last several weeks.'”

“And those who took out shorter-term subprime mortgages — which account for 1.3% of Canada’s loan market — now face the prospect of having to refinance at double the cost. That could introduce forced sellers and distress to the market. And because some investors who bought condos during the pandemic financed their purchases with mortgages that only last a year or two they could be be facing those bleak economics on properties they already own.”

“‘That could introduce an element of somewhat distressed listings coming to market,’ said real estate researcher Ben Rabidoux . ‘You’re going to lose a significant portion of demand from the fact that the economics for investors have completely blown out. And for that small cohort that has short-term financing, and especially that non-prime, short-term financing, they will be renewing this year and it will be at substantially higher rates. The economics on that is going to get pretty painful.'”

“ASB’s economists said ‘three big housing nasties’ it had highlighted last year as potential risks to the housing market had arrived all at once – tighter credit conditions, higher mortgage rates and increased supply of new housing. An increase in supply of new houses was also helping to depress prices, the economists said. ‘We expect additional housing supply to come on stream ahead. We’re now five years into a residential construction boom, and this supply bulge should increasingly show up n higher inventory and new listings numbers. The housing shortage that has plagued the market over the past five years has been rapidly, if not completely, eroded thanks to new construction outpacing plunging population growth.'”

“Founded in 1976, Metricon is the largest player in the sector, employing 2500 Australians with 4000 projects in the pipeline, which is why speculation about the giant’s collapse has sparked panic across the nation. Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said a ‘a very major correction’ was already happening within the industry in the wake of a peak in interest caused by the government’s HomeBuilder scheme. ‘If you want to think about the pressure that HomeBuilder has put on demand, Victoria has suffered more than any of the others,’ Mr Evans said. ‘And now, of course, we are seeing a very major correction.'”

“Smaller operators like Hotondo Homes Hobart and Perth firms Home Innovation Builders and New Sensation Homes, as well as Sydney-based firm Next have also collapsed, leaving homeowners out of pocket and with unfinished houses. NSW couple Jessica Snowdon and her husband Steve also told news.com.au they were terrified by the Metricon situation after forkng out $31,500 in an initial deposit to the firm just four weeks ago. ‘We were just freaking out [when we saw the news], what’s going to happen?’ Ms Snowdon told news.com.au ‘It’s scary because we don’t know whether to pull out or not, if we pull out we still lose our money.'”

“Florence Mok, a new mother, thought she wouldn’t be able to get a mortgage for her HK$9 million ($1.1 million) dream apartment. When her family signed the papers, China Evergrande Group sales staff said not to worry. The developer’s financing arm offered them 90% leverage, no bank stress-test needed. Now Mok’s suffering from the fallout of Evergrande’s debt crisis. With the cash-strapped company no longer willing to provide financing, her family can’t find a bank for a mortgage. They might lose the down payment and apartment.”

“The Moks are among 80 families who have protested and appealed to authorities for help. Their dilemma exposes a risky, yet common practice among Hong Kong developers: real estate companies often lend to buyers to boost sales, potentially letting them stretch beyond their ability to pay.
‘It’s very disturbing,’ said Mok, 39. ‘We were expecting a home for our family, now we may lose everything.'”

Related Posts

Selling Off UNFINISHED Properties

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msl6akte0Oo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YA_FYFZv0Ig https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_cfOc1Sc-0

This Post Has 155 Comments

      2. YOU will own nothing.

        Today I close on my third lot of undeveloped land, after which I will own double digit contiguous acres, paid for with CASH.

        Debt is slavery.

        1. I’ll be doing the same, except not at the peak of the biggest land bubble in history. I plan on buying for 90% off current prices.

          2. Amen. Much better deals coming.

            During real estate busts, it goes something like this:

            “Poor Ron, he’s trying to sell his house and there are no buyers whatsoever except for a few vultures looking to skin him.

            “If you think that’s bad, Elmer’s trying to sell some raw land. Hahahahahahahaaaa!!”

            There is no market for raw land in a bust. It vanishes like a fart in a tornado.

  2. ‘This morning, it was 8,800. Last year at this time, it was 3,500, so there is definitely a shift right now’

    Dang, thousands and thousands of shacks appear out of nowhere in the desert.

    ‘After we’ve been going at full speed for two years, going back to a regular market is going to feel like we just passed a cop at 200 mph, and now we’re slamming on the brakes’

    You say that like it’s something you’ve done before Tina.

  3. ‘CREA said the stress test just moved from 5.25 per cent to the low six per cent range, another roughly one per cent increase in a month. ‘People are nervous. They are thinking, ‘if I take on this mortgage, when mortgage rates are going up and the price to (live) is more, what is going to happen?’

    So the stress test is already lower than real rates. That’s some rock solid lending right there!

  4. ‘after forkng out $31,500 in an initial deposit to the firm just four weeks ago. ‘We were just freaking out [when we saw the news], what’s going to happen?’…It’s scary because we don’t know whether to pull out or not, if we pull out we still lose our money’

    It’s gone Steve.

    1. ‘It’s very disturbing…We were expecting a home for our family, now we may lose everything’

      It’s gone Flo.

      1. once you go past “just the tip, I promise!” it’s very hard to “pull out” before a happy ending.

        just ride this thing to your own happy ending.

  5. ‘Everything I know about the market has told me that the houses should be flying off the shelves,’ said Vonk. ‘When things are not selling it is either the price or the product. It was a gut rehab a few years ago, I know it isn’t the product. So it must be the price’

    Winnah winnah chicken dinnah!

  6. ‘Less phone calls, I’m seeing less offers, less activities with open houses, definitely a cool down’…leading would be buyers to hesitate, especially in tech-stock rich Silicon Valley. ‘Interest rates are high, and my stocks, low … I can’t do that anymore’

    ‘Adam Taggart
    @menlobear
    ‘Layoffs returning fast. Here’s an update on the Tech startup layoffs chart. Note that May’s volume is now the highest since June/July 2020 — and yet we still have a third of the month left to go…’

    https://twitter.com/menlobear/status/1527289326429646848

  8. This has the same smell as 2005. It seems to be happening much faster though. I believe it is the sky high inflation that has accelerated the pace.

    1. Public and private debts have massively increased since 2005, and the central banks have blown their wad with 14 years of “emergency measures.” The implosion of the Fed’s Everything Bubble is going to make 2008 look like a walk in the park.

    3. What’s happening is that someone blew the lid off inflation and long-term interest rates, sending the global central banking community into panic mode.

      Got popcorn?

    4. This feels like a combination of the 2005 housing bubble, plus the 1999-2000 tech bubble. For the last 13 years the Fed has been behaving like a psychotic chimp high on meth and PCP, driving a semi truck loaded with C-4 down an 7% grade with black ice at 80 mph.

      1. Bubba, that is about the best description of the feds behavior I’ve ever heard, I’ve been trying to come up with the words. I’m using this one!

    2. That’s a great and memorable song he wrote. I’m hoping to write just one, only one!, similarly memorable.

      Easier said than done…

        1. if I could audition for the voice or american idol or whatever, singing behind a shower curtain w/closet acoustics & hot steamy water muffling off-key screeching, I’d be a juke box hero.

    3. Never did care for her voice. Like nails on a chalkboard to me. I’d turn it off whenever possible.

  11. ‘Everything I know about the market has told me that the houses should be flying off the shelves,’ said Vonk. ‘When things are not selling it is either the price or the product.

    Another D voter self-identifies via abject stupidity. You live in a Democrat-Bolshevik malgoverned municipality that’s spiraling into dystopia, Vonk. If the vibrants haven’t started cavorting in your suburban neighborhood yet, they soon will be. File your inability to sell your shack under “reaping what you voted.”

  12. ‘People are nervous. They are thinking, ‘if I take on this mortgage, when mortgage rates are going up and the price to (live) is more, what is going to happen?’ said Anita Springate-Renaud, a Toronto broker with Engel & Volkers.”

    It’s starting to dawn on the average brain-dead sheeple that inflation isn’t transitory, contrary to the lies of the central bankers, and it’s headed much higher. That is going to put severe downward pressure on shack prices, especially when the cascading delinquencies and defaults start to hit auto, credit card, and shack loans.

  13. I am trying to tell people locally to stay calm,’ Dickie said. ‘Nothing is going to crash.’”

    Realtors are liars.

  15. Re-post from the last thread.

    New York Times (the New York Times is disinformation) — Hooked on Cheap Oil, Hungary Resists an Embargo on Russia (5/19/2022):

    “Prime Minister Viktor Orban has promised voters to keep energy prices low. The dividends from taking Russian fuel also help fund the policies that have made Hungary a beacon for right-wing groups.

    More than $65 million of that will go to a privately managed education foundation that last year hosted the Fox News host Tucker Carlson at a festival of right-wing pundits in Hungary. It has also provided stipends and fellowships to conservative Americans and Europeans looking for a safe haven from what they bemoan as the spread of “cancel culture” back home.

    Some of them featured this week at the first Hungarian edition of the Conservative Political Action Conference, or CPAC, a gathering of the right wing of American politics. The event, attended by Mr. Orban, opened in Budapest on Thursday under the slogan “God, Homeland, Family.”

    Hungary has for years served as a beacon for foreign conservatives who admire Mr. Orban’s hostility to immigrants, L.G.B.T.Q. rights, George Soros and liberals in general. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, however, has put severe strain on that role, stirring anger among some conservatives about Mr. Orban’s cozying up to the Kremlin.”

    https://archive.ph/6f6qk

    Archive link provided because we do not give clicks and revenue to globalist scum media.

    1. Related article.

      Salon — CPAC Hungary, Day 1: Conservatives embrace plan for “vast right-wing conspiracy” (5/19/2022):

      “On Thursday morning in Budapest, the first Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) to be held in Europe began with a flourish. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán delivered the opening keynote address, laying out a 12-point “open source” plan for right-wing advocates around the world to replicate the “Christian conservative success” of his nation. Hungary, said Orbán, “is the laboratory where we have come up with the antidote to progressive dominance.”

      https://archive.ph/Gu70a

      Archive link provided because we do not give clicks and revenue to globalist scum media.

      1. “For the past several years, Hungary has increasingly taken on the dimension of a right-wing utopia among American conservatives, particularly as a number of movement intellectuals and media figures have made pilgrimage to Budapest on academic and think tank fellowships or thanks to speaking invitations.”

        Globalists rape kids.

        Globalists hate Hungary, they hate Orban, they hate Christianity, they hate European civilization and culture, and they hate anybody who will stand in the way of them confiscating your children, and raping them.

        Globalists do not belong to one religion, one ethnicity, one nationality, but they are united in their mission to defile and destroy anything that is good for humanity, and they are an affront to God and Nature.

        1. “Globalists *ape kids.”

          Your blessed Russian Orthodox Christian soldiers have been and are currently doing this in Ukraine. Please consider switching to decaf.

          2. You claim Russian soldiers are raping children in UKR? I highly doubt this. The lies spewing forth from the Five Eyes globalist lamestream media are quite preposterous.
            Suggest you ease off the “news”, as it’s mostly obvious B.S.
            TY, –Geezer

    1. “He supposedly made his trips carrying his official vehicle and uniform so as not to raise suspicions.”

      The UCMJ will deal with his schitt.

  17. ‘When things are not selling it is either the price or the product. It was a gut rehab a few years ago, I know it isn’t the product. So it must be the price.’

    Vonk the Wonk is spot on! Selling that bargain basement rehab would be a piece of cake if she used a Dutch auction: Drop the list price another $10k every week until a buyer shows up.

  18. A lot of UHS are posting videos right now. I watched one yesterday on Prescott AZ. The guy said median was at $850,000. I don’t know if that’s right, I haven’t seen nor do I usually see Prescott data. That has to be $200,000 over the last peak.

    ‘Prescott/Population/Median Income
    30,348 USD (2020)’

    2. I know a LA detective who is building a custom home in Prescott and will move there when he retires next year with a sweet pension. 300K per year for life is pretty normal with pension spiking.

      1. Prescott is a nice place, at least the last time I was there. It’s not very big. What is big is when you include PV, Chino Valley, Dewey, etc. Which is where most of the foreclosures were last decade. Lot’s of trailers and manufactured shacks.

        1. Friends of ours from San Diego just moved there. No jobs except low grade service situations. Inflow is retirees from Cali and Midwest buying with cash. Another nice area of AZ ruined by equity locusts.

      2. And he probably expects $7.50 per hour landscape help, etc. People like this should have to pay through the nose for everything. They fleeced the taxpayers.

  19. Melvin Capital to shut after heavy losses on meme stocks, market slump
    By Reuters
    Updated 12:48 PM ET, Thu May 19, 2022

    Melvin Capital, once one of Wall Street’s most successful hedge funds which then lost billions in the meme stock saga, will shut down after it was hit again by this year’s market slump.
    Gabe Plotkin, widely regarded as one of the industry’s best traders after posting years of double digit returns, told investors that the last 17 months have been “an incredibly trying time.”
    Plotkin had been trying to turn around the firm after being caught out in early 2021 betting against retail favorite GameStop (GME) and after being wrong footed again by tumbling markets this year.

    “The appropriate next step is to wind down the Funds by fully liquidating the Funds’ assets and accounts and returning cash to all investors,” Plotkin wrote in a letter reviewed by Reuters on Wednesday.

    Melvin Capital had $7.8 billion in assets at the end of April. The fund lost 23% in the first four months of 2022, a person familiar with the fund’s finances said.

    This year’s losses come on the heels of steep losses in 2021 when Melvin Capital ended the year down 39%. The firm bet that shares of GameStop would tumble but was battered when retail investors took the other side and sent the stock surging.
    The firm had $12.5 billion in assets at the start of 2021.
    …
    https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/19/investing/melvin-capital-hedge-fund-closes/index.html

  20. COVID Vaccine Blood Clot Issue ‘May Be in the Hundreds,’ but ‘Heart Issue Is in the Thousands’: Cardiologist

    Heart specialist sees many more cases of heart inflammation since COVID vaccine roll out

    ‘The FDA had asked a judge in December 2021 to give it 75 years to produce safety data concerning the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine, but at the beginning of January of this year, the FDA was ordered to release its related documents in about 8 months.’

    ‘It was revealed that 1,223 deaths and 42,086 adverse events were reported to Pfizer from the first day of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine rollout on Dec. 1, 2020, to Feb. 28, 2021.’

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/covid-vaccine-blood-clot-issue-may-be-in-the-hundreds-but-heart-issue-is-in-the-thousands-cardiologist_4474375.html

    Another (believer in the government poison aka ‘vaccine’) left for dead…

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/9vs22mIUl5ml/

    1 minute. Be sure and spend all yer time listening to Ukranistan dancing cow girls, or the latest mass shooting. Did you know the US has more than one mass shooting a day? Meanwhile these bashtards are killing thousands.

    2. Ben I sent you a donation recently because I appreciate these Epoch Times articles and I know that you have to pay for a subscription.

      This is a medical genocide.

      The phony war, Roe v Wade, mass shootings, etc are all just surface level distractions from an actual genocide.

      They have, and are trying to continue to, poison, mutilate, and murder, millions, even billions, of people.

      1. Thanks, I subscribe to ET because I want to know whats really happening. They don’t have a lot of housing news, but they also aren’t under mass formation psychosis.

      2. “This is a medical genocide.”

        There’s 50 years of payor claims data chronicling exactly which people and institutions killed who and how many. That was the real genocide. What we’re experiencing today is only the latest in a long standing trend. Eugenics and incompetence have both been around for a very long time. It’s why we have medical privacy laws. It’s how the medical cartel has protected itself all of these years.

  21. Congress can pass all the phony bills about “domestic extremism” that they want, but it doesn’t change the fact that the 2020 election was stolen.

    1. New Jersey Sued for Illegally Concealing Election Records Policy

      ‘The Indianapolis-based Public Interest Legal Foundation (PILF) says it needs to view the documents because recent studies show thousands of New Jersey residents possess duplicate, triplicate, or quadruplicate voter registrations.’

      “Americans have a fundamental right under federal law to see precisely how their voter rolls are maintained,” stated PILF President J. Christian Adams, a former civil rights attorney with the U.S. Department of Justice.’

      “We can’t let New Jersey set a trend for concealing standard operating procedures for data entry and hygiene as if they were state secrets—especially when we are seeing persons registered three, four, five, and even six times.”

      https://www.theepochtimes.com/new-jersey-sued-for-illegally-concealing-election-records-policy_4476566.html

  23. Fear and loathing in Mortgage Land

    ‘The Mortgage Bankers Association Secondary Conference in 2021 was a celebration of extraordinary times and the end of COVID. This year’s event was far more subdued. Issuers worry about rising delinquency levels, accusations of racial bias in lending and whether regulators in Albany and Washington are preparing a new campaign against “abuses” in mortgage servicing.’

    ‘Market and credit risk are big worries. A number of more aggressive credit unions and community banks have retained low-coupon loan portfolios that are 10 points or more underwater, causing regulators considerable agitation. These depositories could eventually take capital losses as the FOMC pushes up interest rates.’

    https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/opinion/fear-and-loathing-in-mortgage-land

    Rock solid lending!

    1. We saw this last decade. Deals fall apart, causing more related deals to fall apart.

      1. Are you referring to cascading, systemically imprtant, highly correlated, leveraged defaults to depression?

  25. FYI,

    when and if the corrupt Fed has to sell MBS, they will be taking monster losses on their holdings. Literally losing tax payer dollars to prop up this pig. A special place in hell for them.

    1. How exactly does the fed lose taxpayer dollars, when it bought the with newly printed dollars?

      1. They would be taking a loss on the MBS. Imagine buying something for 100 and getting 75 back. Now leverage that.

        1. You’re missing the point. The 100 dollars the FED used to purchase it isn’t real. Think like the mafia. They just created 100 dollars out of thin air, they bought MBS’s with the play money. Now they sell it for 75 dollars (or 10 dollars or 1 dollar). IT’S ALL PROFIT. Now it’s “real” money and it’s all perfectly valid. There are no losses.

          1. I see what your saying. One of the fed people that get paid part of the $2 billion a year salaries said recently that they would book MBS losses. One would think there is a mechanism where they would be obligated to “return” this magical money. Or maybe they stick it in their pockets, who knows?

          2. The 100 dollars the FED used to purchase it isn’t real.

            Except it is. That money that was created was ultimately paid out to the house seller. Now that money is REAL, and leading to massive inflation in the economy. When the FED turns around and takes losses on the MBS, they can’t scratch back that loss. It’s money that is floating around in the economy forever. You can’t put the genie back into the bottle. There are a lot of misconceptions about this.

          3. PS – This is why the FED has admitted under their breath that by “transitory,” they meant the actual rate of inflation would be transitory, not the prices. They expect high prices to stick in a lot of areas -a new baseline if you will. These guys are the biggest scvmbags you can imagine. They are destroying the fruits of our labor for their own financial well-being.

  26. ‘After we’ve been going at full speed for two years, going back to a regular market is going to feel like we just passed a cop at 200 mph, and now we’re slamming on the brakes,’

    Jay Powell is the cop, and the punishment is life underwater forever.

  27. Tales of RE in N Virginia

    The Properties:
    – Home #1 – listed at 899k – Toured twice in late October, offered 15k over asking with a 10k escalation clause, was beat by 45k over asking offer
    – Home #2 – listed at 950k – toured once in Feb, contemplated making an offer, seller accepted a 190k over asking offer 2 days after listing with no
    contingencies
    – Home #3 – listed at 999k – visited outside of home multiple times in early March to scout the property, contacted seller pre-market to offer 100k
    over asking if we could tour privately, was beat by a 150k over asking sight-unseen pre-market offer with no contingencies.
    – Home #4 – listed at 999k – toured 3 times last week, lead with a 70k over asking with 35k escalation (105k over asking) and learned today we were
    beat by a 200k over asking offer with no contingencies

    What We Learned:
    – There are no rules in this real estate market
    – What people are willing to pay is totally unrelated to the underlying value, lot, size, condition of the home
    – Every home sells for over asking, you have to be willing to overpay (10-20%) to buy a home right now
    – You are unlikely to be considered with any contingency in your offer, you must accept the risk of no appraisal or inspection contingency
    – Your agent will only advise you to keep upping your offer to win a property

  31. those Skokie pics look like it’s waiting for a backyard outside deck install/remodel.
    like in that Canadian tv show “Decked Out”. with that manic host who successfully Escaped from NY.

    1. Date Event Price
      5/20/2022 Listed for sale $316,000 (-3.1%) $158/sqft

      5/9/2022 Pending sale $326,000 $163/sqft

      4/22/2022 Price change $326,000 (-3.3%) $163/sqft

      1/14/2022 Price change $337,000 (-1.2%) $169/sqft

      12/17/2021 Price change $341,000 (-1.2%) $171/sqft

      12/1/2021 Listed for sale $345,000 $173/sqft

      10/11/2021 Listing removed $345,000 $173/sqft

      9/30/2021 Listed for sale $345,000 (+6.2%) $173/sqft

      9/16/2021 Sold $325,000 (+286.9%) $163/sqft

      7/1/1996 Sold $84,000 $42/sqft

      The winnah!

      1. This part is interesting:

        5/20/2022 Listed for sale $316,000 (-3.1%) $158/sqft

        5/9/2022 Pending sale $326,000 $163/sqft

        4/22/2022 Price change $326,000 (-3.3%) $163/sqft

        Looks like they had it under contract and it fell out. What’s the first thing he does? Slash 10k.

        1. I ran a search on the county property appraisal site. The property is owned by OpenDoor. It’s also right on a 4 lane road.

          1. So we’re almost back to 2019 prices in a few months? LMFAO. This may be the quickest real estate bust in history.

    2. If there’s another massive bust in Florida, I’m thinking of buying a house and retiring there. I want to pay cash and “go naked” on the insurance thing. Wouldn’t mind buying in a hurricane area where rates are expensive. Might keep house prices down. Something near the beach so I can walk there. Open for suggestions.

      1. Sorry, but the areas most prone to hurricane damage are the most expensive. Think coastal areas or literally anywhere near any body of water. Florida is one giant flood zone, so no matter where you are you’re not immune to floods. It used to be that if you wanted somewhere cheap you moved to a rural area where there were lots of redneck good ol’ boys. Now that’s not really a thing anymore.

      2. It depends. Are you coming from California, NY, or Illinois?

        If so, we’re full.

        1. I like that answer, too. Although, I think we’re full no matter from where one is coming.

    1. Q: What is the most corrupt nation in Europe?

      A: In 2015 The Guardian called Ukraine “the most corrupt nation in Europe”. According to a poll conducted by Ernst & Young in 2017, experts considered Ukraine to be the ninth-most corrupt nation from 53 surveyed.

      Corruption in Ukraine – Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Corruption_in_Ukraine

    2. Ukrainian professor Oleh Bazaluk [uk] reports that the roots of the Ukrainian corruption stem from the Soviet nature of the Ukrainian political leaders, who used to be integrated into the Communist nomenklatura (ruling elite) before the collapse of the Soviet Union. The politicians created an authoritarian-oligarchic governance regime in Ukraine where the corruption became ubiquitous with no chances to implement a European choice of the Ukrainian people.[9]

      Prominent Ukrainian economist Oleh Havrylyshyn [uk] performed a comparison of the Ukrainian corruption in a wide global context based on data provided by Transparency International. This research estimated the level of the corruption in Ukraine as comparable to countries of Sub-Saharan Africa with Uganda as the closest counterpart.[10]

    3. “Pete Buttigieg, the US transportation secretary, said there was plenty of political will at home”

      I love me sum made up Buttafacts.

  34. This article is about housing.

    About where not to buy a house if you don’t want your kids taught by pedofiles.

    Washington state school board director set to host ‘Queer Youth Open Mic Night’ at sex shop

    Emma Colton
    Thu, May 19, 2022, 7:56 AM·
    2 min read

    A Washington state school board director is slated to host a “Queer Youth Open Mic Night” for children ranging from ages 0-18 at a sex shop.

    “All queer youth (0 to 18 years old) are invited to share poetry, music, or a story at our open mic night. Sign up for a performer spot ahead of time, 5-minute time limit,” a Facebook post from the sex shop WinkWink in Bellingham, Washington, says.

    WinkWink is described as a “woman-owned, identity-inclusive sex shop” that is “sex-positive, body-positive, and gender-affirming.” The sex shop is owned by Jenn Mason, the school board director for the Bellingham School District, KTTH radio host Jason Rantz reported Wednesday.

    The event for children will be hosted at WinkWink on June 1 and is billed as an opportunity to “celebrate youth pride” by holding a space and “stage for young queer voices in our community.”

    Mason added that the event is not related to her role on the school board and explained that the open mic night for kids would be “physically separated” from the sex toys in the shop. The shop notes on its website that in addition to selling sex toys and other intimate items, it also hosts classes such as “Non-monogomy for newbies” and private intimacy and sex coaching sessions taught by Mason.

    CO MOM SAYS MIDDLE SCHOOL INVITED HER DAUGHTER TO SECRET LGBTQ CLUB, TOLD STUDENTS TO KEEP INFO FROM PARENTS

    “As this is a public event at a private business, anyone uncomfortable with the location may choose to not attend,” Mason said of the open mic night.

    A spokesperson for Bellingham School District told Fox News Digital that the “community event is not sponsored by our schools or school district.”

    https://sports.yahoo.com/washington-state-school-board-director-115602666.html

  35. Because of Russia, Putin and the monkey virus pandemic, we will cease the rate hike and qt until further notice. Restarting QE is under active consideration as it’s been empirically proven that issuing more debt cures all kinds of problems.

    –Jerome Bowell May 23, 2022

  36. Just another Friday…

    (news item)
    growth-scare-permeates-u-s-stocks-as-estimated-5-trillion-to-8-trillion-of-household-wealth-evaporates-in-five-months

    Can the REIConplex be far behind?

    Next few months in the R/E markets are going to be most interesting.

    1. Oh, a don’t forget crypto.

      Per coinmarketcap choose from any of [as of today] 19,509 cryptos.

      Buy now and secure your spot in the winners circle!

      All the hot chicks will want to be your date!

    2. “Can the REIConplex be far behind?”

      – No, it cannot.

      – It’s happening currently, but the data only comes out after a lag.

  37. Have we entered a Bouncing-Down-the-Stairs-to-the-Basement market?

    I wonder how the current market carnage compares to the Great Recession experience (2007-2009)?

    1. ZH headline: Dow Suffers Longest Losing Streak In 99 Years, Bonds & Bullion Bid

  38. The Financial Times
    Markets Briefing
    US equities
    Wall Street stocks sink into bear market as growth concerns mount
    S&P 500 down 20% from record peak reached early in 2022
    A Wall Street sign and the US flag
    Markets have been roiled by worries over rising prices, slowing economic growth and central banks’ move to rein in stimulus measures
    Adam Samson and Naomi Rovnick in London and Eric Platt and Francesca Friday in New York 2 hours ago

    Wall Street stocks slumped into a bear market on Friday as mounting concerns over economic growth and inflation sent investors racing for safe havens.

    The S&P 500 fell 1.8 per cent in afternoon trading taking losses from its high on January 3 over 20 per cent, the common definition of a bear market.

    Friday’s fall also left the S&P 500 poised to close the week nearly 5 per cent lower, marking the seventh straight week of declines. The index has not sustained such a prolonged fall since 2001.
    …

    1. “The index has not sustained such a prolonged fall since 2001.”

      I guess this selloff must be worse than the one during the Lehman Brothers collapse in the Great Recession.

      That’s quite impressive.

    1. Quick thinking under pressure. Using the element of surprise to knock out two guys. Walked up to the first guy casually, then pow! The second had his back to the first knockout and got his head body slammed backward on the pavement.

  40. Man, I had Monkey Stew for lunch.

    “The Nigerian CDC is urging its citizens to stop eating ‘bush meat’ (monkeys and rats) in order to help stop the spread of the global monkeypox outbreak.”

    Monkey Man
    https://youtu.be/yZJaCqrxCT4

  41. Will the DNC turn the late Jeffrey Epstein’s former homes into shrines and Democrat-Bolshevik leadership retreats?

    EXCLUSIVE: Inside Jeffrey Epstein’s New Mexico ranch. The full glory of the sprawling 30,000 sq. ft. home where the pedophile abused young girls is revealed for the first time in stunning photos as it goes on the market for $27.5 million

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10837699/Inside-pedophile-Jeffrey-Epsteins-New-Mexico-ranch-market-27-5million.html

    1. I do hope while he was being choked out by a couple of Clintons muscle goons he felt the desperate fear he instilled in his victims. Intense, sh!t inducing, and palpable fear.

  43. It gave me great satisfaction to cancel my Netflix subscription, citing as my reason my refusal to give my money to “woke” companies. As “get woke, go broke” hits more and more companies, will we finally see purges of the leftist loons who add nothing of value to any employer?

    Netflix’s woke purge: Troubled streaming giant’s latest layoffs targeted staff who were among its most vocal social justice warriors working on original content about marginalized communities

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10837347/Netflix-layoffs-hit-staff-working-original-content-marginalized-communities.html

  44. For those using the JoshuaTree extension, I’ve uploaded a new version (4.11) which has a new feature inspried by In Colorado — it will inline image links as image elements in the comment (personally I found it minimized the impact if I had to go click on the URL to see what was being referenced). It’s enabled by default, but can be turned off via the options.

    For those not using it — you should!

    The new version is live for Firefox and awaiting approval for Chrome.

    As always, thanks to Ben for being our host here, and if you use/like the extension, please donate to the blog to keep this place alive and kicking.

        1. Rather than having to click the link to see the image, the image will automatically be displayed — basically replacing the text with an actual image tag displaying the image

  46. Now for some poetry from Carl Carlton.

    She’s poetry in motion
    A beautiful sight to see
    I get so excited viewing her anatomy

    She’s a bad mama jama
    Just as fine as she can be

    She’s built, oh, she’s stacked
    Got all the curves that men like

    She’s a bad mama jama
    Just as fine as she can be

    Her body measurements are perfect in every dimension
    She’s got a figure
    That’s sure enough paying attention
    She’s poetry in motion
    A beautiful sight to see
    I get so excited viewing her anatomy

    She’s a bad mama jama
    Just as fine as she can be
    She’s a bad mama jama
    Just as fine as she can be

    https://youtu.be/6QIw1BQIvT4

  47. Are you afraid that buying stocks now could result in catching yourself a falling knife?

    1. The Dow is on its longest weekly losing streak since 1923
      By Matt Egan, CNN Business
      Updated 4:32 PM ET, Fri May 20, 2022

      New York (CNN Business)The stock market selloff hit pause Friday, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average couldn’t avoid its longest weekly losing streak in nearly a century.
      The Dow (INDU) ended Friday nine points higher but finished the week down about 3%.
      This was its eighth-straight weekly loss, the longest weekly losing streak since 1923, according to FactSet data reviewed by LPL Financial.

      The long stretch of losses underscores the negative mood on Wall Street as investors grow nervous about high inflation — and what the Federal Reserve will have to do to get prices under control.

      The broader S&P 500 posted its seventh-straight weekly loss, which its the longest such slump since March 2001, according to Bespoke Investment Group. The S&P 500 briefly entered bear-market territory Friday, a 20% drop from the all-time high it reached in January.

      “From inflation, to a hawkish Fed, to war, to supply chain issues, to China on lockdown, to a slowing economy, there are many reasons stocks have done as poorly as they have recently,” LPL Financial’s Ryan Detrick said in an email.
      …
      https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/20/investing/dow-stock-market-losing-streak/index.html

        1. The problem, as I see it, is that there may be quite a few more shoes to drop before this ends.

          1. It’s kind of like when a building partially collapses. You see the damage, and wonder if the entire structure will eventually collapse into a pile of rubble.

    2. Stock market’s deep sell-off puts 401(k) investors on edge
      Susan Tompor
      Detroit Free Press

      Are nervous consumers who are grumbling all the way to the grocery ready to call it quits?

      Is inflation driving them to reconsider how often they open their wallets? If so, are we closer to a recession than some might have imagined several months ago?
      …
      https://www.freep.com/story/money/personal-finance/susan-tompor/2022/05/20/stock-markets-deep-sell-off-puts-401-k-investors-edge/9851938002/

    3. Does it seem like so many central bankers suddenly finding religious accord on the perils of unbridled inflation could tip the global economy into recession?

      1. The Financial Times
        The Big Read
        Global Economy
        Is the global economy heading for recession?
        The outlook is deteriorating because of the Covid outbreak in China, rising US interest rates and a cost of living crisis in Europe
        A city worker disinfects a Covid test site in Beijing. Accounting for 19% of the world’s total output, China is now so large that when it catches Covid the rest of the world cannot ignore its pain
        Chris Giles in London yesterday

        If Leo Tolstoy were writing about today’s business conditions, he might have noted that happy economies are all alike but every unhappy economy is unhappy in its own way.

        China’s growth prospects have been hammered by strict Covid-19 lockdowns in a bid to quell its Omicron outbreak; the US Federal Reserve risks turning an American boom into bust; Europe’s households are enduring a cost of living crisis; and the situation is worse in many poorer emerging markets, where food crises and even famines beckon.

        These four different but imposing problems each stalk the global economy as it recovers from the pandemic and it is not surprising the mood is darkening.

        According to Robin Brooks, chief economist of the Institute of International Finance, the confluence of these shocks suggests the world economy is already in trouble. “We’re in another global recession scare now, except this time we think it’s for real,” he says.

        Financial markets have taken fright. The MSCI world index of equities fell more than 1.5 per cent in the past week, more than 5 per cent in May and more than 18 per cent since a peak in early January. Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research, notes that on top of a torrid time for stocks, there has been a sell-off in bonds, inflation-protected bonds, industrial metals, gold and crypto assets.

        “The last time that the ‘everything sell-off’ star alignment happened was in early 1981 when Paul Volcker’s Fed broke the back of inflation and turned stagflation into an outright recession,” Joshi says.
        …

      2. The Financial Times
        Opinion
        Chinese economy
        Pessimism engulfs the Chinese economy as foreign investment fades
        The unpredictable outlook for many multinationals may herald a shift in how the global economy works
        James Kynge yesterday

        “No matter what you may be selling, your business in China should be enormous, if the Chinese who should buy your goods would only do so.”

        Never did an “if only” clause carry more weight. In the 85 years since Carl Crow, a Shanghai-based American advertising executive, wrote these words in his book Four Hundred Million Customers, China’s population has grown by 1bn people. Their combined spending power is now second only to that of Americans.

        Yet the gulf between promise and reality in China’s fabled market haunts foreign corporations as much today as when Crow was trying to market American lipstick and French brandy to the emerging middle class of the 1930s. A host of political and regulatory issues — exacerbated by Xi Jinping’s strict Covid policies and his stance over Russia’s war in Ukraine — are conspiring to eviscerate the dreams of many multinationals.

        The result is that direct investment into China by foreign companies is falling off a cliff. Joerg Wuttke, president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in Beijing, says the unpredictability is prompting the European business community to put investments into China “on hold”. “Many of our members are now taking a wait-and-see approach to investments in China,” he adds, citing an attitudes survey this month of the chamber’s 1,800 members. “Twenty-three per cent of our members are now considering shifting current or planned investments out of China, the highest level on record. And 77 per cent report that China’s attractiveness as a future investment destination has decreased.”
        …

      3. The Financial Times
        Markets Briefing
        US equities
        Wall Street stocks flirt with bear market as growth concerns mount
        S&P 500 index falls 20% below record peak of early 2022 during intraday trading but closes flat
        A Wall Street sign and the US flag
        Markets have been roiled by worries over rising prices, slowing economic growth and central banks’ move to rein in stimulus measures
        Adam Samson and Naomi Rovnick in London and Eric Platt and Francesca Friday in New York yesterday

        Wall Street stocks briefly entered bear market territory on Friday, as mounting concerns over economic growth and inflation sent investors searching for havens.

        The S&P 500 fell as much as 2.3 per cent, temporarily dragging the index down more than 20 per cent from its recent high, the common definition of a bear market. It has been the first time the index declined by such a large amount since the sell-off sparked by the start of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020.

        The index pared losses later on Friday afternoon, however, closing up 0.01 per cent and down 18.7 per cent from its record peak in early January.

        Stocks have tumbled this year as central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, rapidly unwind stimulus measures in an attempt to bring down inflation from multi-decade highs, while the Ukraine war has disrupted supply chains and hit commodity prices. At the same time, there are indications that economic growth may be faltering across major global economies.

        Friday’s fall also left the S&P 500 nursing its seventh straight week of declines, down 3 per cent from where it ended the prior week. The index has not sustained such a prolonged fall since 2001.

        The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.3 per cent, adding to losses from the previous two days and ending the week more than 3.8 per cent lower.

        “The strong consensus narrative is that growth goes down from here, there is a recession in the foreseeable future, interest rates will keep going up and inflation should come down but will remain high,” said Emiel van den Heiligenberg, head of asset allocation at Legal & General Investment Management.
        …

      4. Why the looming bear market will be different
        By Julia Horowitz, CNN Business
        Updated 3:08 PM ET, Fri May 20, 2022
        NEW YORK – APRIL 9: A pedestrian carrying an umbrella walks past the New York Stock Exchange April 9, 2003 in New York City. Rain continued for a second day after New York CIty was blanketed by four inches from a Spring snowstorm. (Photo by Stephen Chernin/Getty Images)

        London (CNN Business)
        When a bear market arrives, it’s not pretty, especially for investors making short-term decisions. But it happens — and a recovery arrives eventually.

        Quick refresher: A “bear market” refers to when stocks drop 20% or more from their recent peak. They’re a sign of extreme negative sentiment on Wall Street and are more severe than garden-variety sell-offs.
        Since World War II, the S&P 500 has experienced 17 bear markets or near bear markets, according to an analysis by LPL Financial’s Ryan Detrick. Number 18 is all but certain to arrive soon.

        The S&P 500 is down 18.7% from its high in early January, battered by concerns about inflation, interest rate hikes and the war in Ukraine. Most traders don’t expect it to begin staging a sustained comeback for some time.

        “The sour mood has been persistent,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, wrote to clients earlier this week.

        Historically, when the S&P 500 has entered a bear market, the average drop was almost 30% and went on for nearly a year.
        That period is painful, but it doesn’t last forever. And importantly, bear markets haven’t always been precursors to recessions in the United States.

        “In 1987, we had a bear market and no recession, and earnings continued to rise,” Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, told me. “That may very well turn out to be the environment we’re in now.”

        Still, economists and investors acknowledge that the risk of a recession will rise as inflation eats into consumer spending and the Federal Reserve keeps hiking rates in a bid to combat the problem.

        “The probabilities have been growing all year long,” said Darrell Cronk, president of the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. His team now believes it’s more likely than not that the United States economy shrinks later this year and in early 2023, he added.
        …
        https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/20/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

Comments are closed.