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Realtors Are Telling Residents That They Shouldn’t Panic

A report from Fox 5 Vegas in Nevada. “Potential home buyers in the Las Vegas Valley said ‘no’ to real estate for the month of November. New data by the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors shows 10,000 single family homes were on the market and by the end of the month, 7,000 homes had zero offers on the table.”

“That’s a 54 percent difference compared to 2017 and the highest number of homes in Las Vegas to not get an offer in two years. Realtors are telling Las Vegas residents that they shouldn’t panic. Even though the market is changing, Las Vegas’ market is still ahead of the game.”

“‘I mean that’s still crazy fast for markets across this country,’ said Nevada Realtors newly elected president, Keith Lynam. ‘Are we as fast as were six months ago? No, but we couldn’t sustain that, it was not sustainable, it was never going to be sustainable. So we’re back to pretty much a normal market.'”

“Lynam said he predicts Las Vegas homes will average four to six months on the market. Before, Lynam says he saw some areas with homes on the market between 2.5 to 3 weeks.”

The Bowling Green Daily News in Kentucky. “Will winter bring a cooling off of what has been a red-hot and record-setting Warren County residential real estate market? Numbers indicate the traditional slowing of homebuying activity during the winter may carry over into the new year and alter a market that has favored sellers for the past couple years.”

“The county’s growth, coupled with inexpensive borrowing, created a homebuying market that veteran Realtors like Alan Read of Crye-Leike Executive Realty had never seen. ‘This has been a phenomenal couple of years,’ Read said. ‘We have gone through the strongest seller’s market people can remember around here.'”

“Homebuilding, which had slumped in the wake of the 2008-09 recession, has rebounded at a frenzied pace. Figures provided by the City-County Planning Commission of Warren County show that the number of single-family lots approved exploded from 47 in 2012 to 1,121 in 2017. Multifamily unit approvals grew from 457 to 2,212 in the same period.”

“As a result, the inventory of homes is growing. According to the Realtors Association of Southern Kentucky, Warren County had 614 homes listed for sale Nov. 30, a big increase from the 451 homes listed on the same date in 2017.”

“Much of that growth is due to the building boom, says Realtor Ron Cummings of Century 21 Premier Realty. He pointed out that 183 of the homes are classified as new construction. Those are primarily higher-end homes, driving the average price of active listings up to its current figure of $320,797.”

“Those homes aren’t moving as quickly as they have been in recent months. The current average days on market of 138 is up from 111 a year ago. Such incremental trends aren’t lost on real estate pros like Cummings, who said: ‘It has been a seller’s market for 18 to 20 months. Right now it’s probably neutral, but it’s leaning toward a buyer’s market.'”

“Those trends could translate to a slowdown in the Warren County housing market, but Read doesn’t expect a dramatic change. ‘Along about July you could see it shifting some as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates a little bit,’ he said. ‘You started seeing people waiting a little more as they saw how much prices had gone up.'”

“But that sort of slight cooling-off in a market that has been going full bore may not mean an immediate shift to a buyer’s market, Read reasons. ‘Instead of going 100 miles an hour,’ he said, ‘maybe it will slow down to 80.'”

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This Post Has 44 Comments

  1. ‘Are we as fast as were six months ago? No, but we couldn’t sustain that, it was not sustainable, it was never going to be sustainable’

    That’s interesting cuz I don’t remember you guys saying that at the time.

    ‘Lynam said he predicts Las Vegas homes will average four to six months on the market. Before, Lynam says he saw some areas with homes on the market between 2.5 to 3 weeks’

    Gosh, I hope no one borrowed too much in such an environment.

    1. ‘Are we as fast as were six months ago? No, but we couldn’t sustain that, it was not sustainable, it was never going to be sustainable’

      Hey Lynam, great post prediction / warning for RE. Better put that out there so you can later say you warned everyone albeit a bit late…

  2. ‘The county’s growth, coupled with inexpensive borrowing’

    Ahem…

    ‘created a homebuying market that veteran Realtors like Alan Read of Crye-Leike Executive Realty had never seen. ‘This has been a phenomenal couple of years…We have gone through the strongest seller’s market people can remember around here’

    To have a picture of what’s coming at us, you have to consider all the little Bowling Greens out there that went nuts.

    1. In Kentucky, of all places, a state that has long suffered from low wages and poverty.

      You know, the Fed and the gov intentionally blowing another real estate bubble is absolutely sickening. To do it a second time is unforgivable. A policy which intentionally makes shelter more expensive, the number one expense in every person’s budget, is despicable beyond words.

  3. ‘10,000 single family homes were on the market and by the end of the month, 7,000 homes had zero offers on the table’

    I’ll have a Blue Christmas without you
    I’ll be so blue just thinking about you
    Decorations of red on a green Christmas tree
    Won’t be the same dear, if you’re not here with me
    And when those blue snowflakes start falling
    That’s when those blue memories start calling
    You’ll be doin’ all right, with your Christmas of white
    But I’ll have a blue, blue blue blue Christmas
    You’ll be doin’ all right, with your Christmas of white
    But I’ll have a blue, blue Christmas

    1. Wow, that truly is a staggering figure. I had to read it twice.

      Lots of eggnog therapy at those houses I’m sure.

  4. ‘It has been a seller’s market for 18 to 20 months. Right now it’s probably neutral, but it’s leaning toward a buyer’s market.’”

    It’s “leaning” off a very steep cliff.

  5. ‘‘Along about July you could see it shifting some…You started seeing people waiting a little more as they saw how much prices had gone up’

    As opposed to people who wanted to get in before they were priced out forever. (Fear of missing out on all that sweet equity).

    This is an interesting statement about why this thing turned. Maybe I should qualify what I said before about running out of buyers. It could be they ran out of speculative buyers.

    1. I think the trillions in fictitious valuations that have been wiped away from the Fed’s Ponzi markets are going to leave a serious mark, as retail investors go over their online brokerage and 401 (k) statements and suddenly realize a good portion of their “wealth” has vaporized. That is going to seriously inhibit big-ticket purchases like housing and cars, not to mention the sea change in psychology after ten years of artificial, unsustainable asset price inflation due solely to the Fed’s QE rather than underlying fundamentals. Now that public and private debts have tripled since 2009, the long-deferred financial reckoning day is drawing closer, while the Fed has already used up its ammunition as the next Great Financial Crisis looms on the horizon.

      1. ‘the next Great Financial Crisis looms on the horizon’

        I’ve decided cheaper shacks are better for everyone involved in the long run. What is the worst thing about a foreclosure? They have to move. Boo-hoo!

        It’s sort of like the bit-coin thing. They can say “oh it lost a trillion bucks in a week.” They didn’t pay a trillion, it was that market cap illusion. And it’s the same with shacks. Yeah, people have to climb down from their tree house and get a real job. So what?

        This whole “you’ll all be eating gruel” is the line the PTB will try when some of their bacon is in the fryer. Don’t believe it.

        1. The economic meltdown last time was real, though. Do you think it’s possible for shack prices to fall 50%-60% without the same thing happening? The job losses again could be staggering.

          1. job losses

            The only shame in losing jobs created by a bubble is that they were ever created in the first place.

          2. The economic impact of 22 million people forced into poverty due to a bubble in the cost of housing is what is staggering. I did the math on this in a comment last year:

            Total job losses due to 2001 and 2008 recessions: 2.2 million + 8.8 million = 11 million

            Total number of people impoverished by the housing boom/bubble since 2000: 22 million*

            *Since 2000, the number of American households who cannot afford the roof over their head has increased by 146% – from 16 million to 38 million households.
            https://www.nbcnews.com/business/real-estate/americans-who-can-t-afford-their-homes-146-percent-n774106

        1. Just remember, Mr. Banker is always here, always here and ready and willing to lend a helping hand.

          (Oh my, the good times are ready to roll. 😁)

    2. they ran out of speculative buyers

      “Warren County…Kentucky…average price… $320,797”

      That’s almost 7 x family income over there. It isn’t remotely possible that buyers are anything but speculative.

      1. ‘He pointed out that 183 of the homes are classified as new construction. Those are primarily higher-end homes’

        It’s almost half of their inventory right now.

        1. Median household income is the only reliable metric concering median house prices and whether or not they’re sustainable or affordable. The idea that higher earning couples will carry a housing market is ludicrous.

          Speculators are very bad for the housing market, doing incredible damage in the near, medium and long term.

    3. “they ran out of speculative buyers.” + the steady supply of young fools that can be manipulated every which way because they don’t know any better….as well as the buying clubs now forming quietly on how not to get screwed for a lifetime buy the Crookestate Mob.

    1. $1000000. is not the price of the property, the sale price will be the highest acceptable offer. Do your due diligence, view both homes features here with the photos, and review the location

      Date Event Price $/sqft Source
      12/15/2018 Listed for sale $1,000,000 -65.5% $370 Owner
      11/16/2018 Price change $2,900,000 -31.1% $1,074 Comstock Homes Broker, Inc
      6/3/2018 Price change $4,210,990 +45.2% $1,560 Comstock Homes Broker, Inc
      5/25/2018 Price change $2,900,000 -24.7% $1,074 Comstock Homes Broker, Inc
      5/3/2018 Price change $3,850,000 -8.6% $1,426 Comstock Homes Broker, Inc
      4/17/2018 Listed for sale $4,210,990 -0.9% $1,560 Comstock Homes Broker, Inc
      1/25/2018 Listing removed $4,248,000 — $1,573 —
      1/25/2018 Price change $4,248,000 +73.4% $1,573 —
      12/8/2017 Listed for sale $2,450,000 +2.1% $907 Owner
      10/30/2017 Listing removed $2,400,000 — $889 Katy Cowley
      10/22/2017 Price change $2,400,000 -42.9% $889 Katy Cowley
      4/11/2017 Listed for sale $4,200,000 +460% $1,556 Katy Cowley
      5/4/1999 Sold $750,000 — $278 Public Record

      1. Also from the link, a lot of corn:

        What I Love About The Home
        It’s not love, it’s the everyday pleasure of seeing and living next to the waters of Monterey Bay. The parcel is 50 feet from the sands of the beach and a wink of the eye for the tranquil view of the waves.

        1. “The parcel is 50 feet from the sands of the beach“

          50 feet from a sheer cliff that drops down another 50+ feet to the beach. I live nearby this property and yes it is a beautiful view from a top that cliff but a little deceiving to claim the said proximity to the sand

          1. Haha… they could go hang gliding, setup and launch right from their backyard. Remember that Spokane guy with a ski hill in his backyard?

          2. “Remember that Spokane guy with a ski hill in his backyard?”

            That guy was ridiculous. I remember his claim that they didn’t have to go to a ski resort, they could slap on their gear and ski in their backyard – in Spokane. Yeah, uh-huh…

      2. “$1000000. is not the price of the property, the sale price will be the highest acceptable offer“

        Just caught that. Well 500k it is then!

      3. “$1000000. is not the price of the property, ”

        Good point, sold in pre-bubble 1999 for $750k. So $750k sounds about right due to it’s beach proximity. lol

      4. Did you see the ZEstimate section?

        Last 30 Day Change
        -$1,210,293 (-32.5 %)

        I wonder what tripped the algorithms….

    2. Looks like a nice place. Bought for 750k in 99 now for sale 20 years later for $1M so 1.5% per year appreciation, not including renovation upkeep and commission.
      If the owner was sneaky maybe he HELOCed 4.2M out of that sucker and will flee the country.

      1. “If the owner was sneaky maybe he HELOCed 4.2M out of that sucker and will flee the country.”

        $uch $trategies work quite well for taxpayer provided $mall bidne$$ loan$ too!

  8. “Those trends could translate to a slowdown in the Warren County housing market, but Read doesn’t expect a dramatic change. ‘Along about July you could see it shifting some as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates a little bit,’ he said. ‘You started seeing people waiting a little more as they saw how much prices had gone up.’”

    In comparison to much of other RE in the US, Kentucky seems like a low median. How much impact did interest rates really play in the monthly nut? July/August was coincidentally when foreign buyers backed off / government restrictions enforced. We hear no mention of that…

  9. I’ve read the site for years and been a HBB fan, but only recently started posting. I’ve been in RE quite a long time. I’m starting to think Ben Jones is a bot. How can any human post this quantity of amazing real estate news? I imagine him looking like Dolph Lundgren but half military-grade robot with a southern draw, consuming and dispensing real estate pearls from some fortified basement somewhere in a building with a helicopter pad. Amazing work Ben, thanks for the content.

    1. “I’m starting to think Ben Jones is a bot.”

      Yeah, he’s a beer drinking bot from way back, cheers to snow cooled brewski’s!

      1. Ben is a bot ??

        LOL. Well, maybe we should have cut his wrist Hwy to see if he bleeds last time we were in Vegas together. Besides, Do bots like Tiki bars ??

    1. “It’s only after you’ve lost everything that you’re free to do anything.”

      — Tyler Durden, FIGHT CLUB

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