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A More Striking Reversal Than We Experienced In 2005

A report from the Coeur d’Alene Press in Idaho. “Rocket Homes reported that the median home price in May in Kootenai County was $521,000, down 30.8% from a month ago. The asking price for one Dalton Gardens, five-bedroom, 2,500-square-foot home was reduced to $949,000 on Friday. Multiple offers are no longer flying fast and furious on every new home on the market. People have stopped buying homes sight unseen, which has caught sellers by surprise.”

“‘If it’s on the market for two weeks and there aren’t any offers, people wonder what’s going on,’ said Chad Oakland with Northwest Realty Group. According to Redfin, 41% of Boise home sellers dropped their prices in April. Many sellers in Coeur d’Alene are doing the same, Oakland said. And inventory is growing.”

“According to the Coeur d’Alene Regional Realtors, there were 160 homes on the market in Kootenai County in January. In February, it was 192. In March, 289, in April, 441. May numbers were not available on Friday. ‘It is impossible to underprice a house,’ Oakland said. ‘It’s super easy to overprice it.'”

The Ahwatukee Foothills News in Arizona. “A leading analyst of the Valley’s housing market says the latest home sale data shows the market is cooling at an ‘astonishing and widespread’ rate. The Cromford Report two weeks ago observed that ‘buyers’ disadvantage in negotiations has dropped dramatically.’  But last week, the Cromford Report struck an even louder alarm, expressing surprise ‘at how quickly the market is cooling’ and declaring: ‘We are not having a good year, despite the incredible strength of the first quarter.'”

“It cited a variety of factors behind that and said, ‘The last time we saw a similar frenzied market cool down very quickly was in April to November 2005. This is a more striking reversal than we experienced that year.’ Those factors include: ‘Supply is growing fast; demand is weakening; sales volumes are in swift decline; more asking prices are being lowered: listing cancellations and expirations are starting to rise.'”

From WFTV. “Charmaine Chapman practically shudders when she thinks about trying to move to Central Florida. On the fifth try, she won out by a mere $1,000. ‘That moment was glory,’  she said. However, Keller Williams real estate agent Ray Lopez said said the glory days are mostly over. ‘People just got used to the new normal, and not to the normal,’ he said. ‘The norm was going up, and now we’re going to get back to a bell-shaped curve.'”

“The return to normal will force an adjustment among homeowners accustomed to watching their investment’s value rise. Instead of 25% gains year over year, Lopez said home values should fall slightly after Labor Day as the market settles into its normal offseason.”

From Business Insider. “The homebuilding sector is increasing its production and welcoming more workers to the industry. According to real estate database Altos Research, inventory of unsold single family homes in the U.S. rose 8.2% last week, to 344,000 homes — an increase of 26,000 more homes. ‘At an absolute level it is not unprecedented for inventory to grow by 25,000 in a week,’ Mike Simonsen, founder of Altos, said in a statement. ‘But since we’re coming off the record lows, as a percentage, that may be the biggest jump we’ve seen. At 344,000 homes we now have 6% more than last year.'”

The Marin Independent Journal in California. “No new vacation rentals will be allowed in West Marin for up to two years under emergency rules adopted Tuesday by the Marin County Board of Supervisors. About 10% of the 5,250 residential properties in the affected West Marin communities are registered with the county as short-term rentals. In Stinson Beach and Marshall, about 20% and 22% of residential properties, respectively, are short-term rentals.”

“The moratorium applies to the bulk of the county, including popular destinations such as Stinson Beach, Bolinas, Marshall, Dillon Beach, Point Reyes Station and Inverness. San Francisco resident Jacqueline Hilger-Rolfe told the board she is building a house on a Dillon Beach property she purchased with the intent to use it as a coastal escape for her family and rent it out to keep up with maintenance. She said she bought the property in good faith with the understanding that she could rent it out to other people to help cover some of the building costs and upkeep.”

“‘I won’t be able to retire because I won’t have the money to be able to support this family on top of my main home, which is in San Francisco where I work full time,’ she told the board.”

From Money Wise. “The housing market in Canada is cooling down. ‘Sellers really have just kind of woken up to the realization that you can’t guarantee a sale,’ says Bradley Watson, a broker and investor in the Greater Toronto Area. ‘We have individuals who have committed to purchasing new construction, purchase properties with confidence of selling, who are now kind of struggling,’ says Watson. ‘And we even see people selling, once again, homes for less than they had paid, probably tied back to this affordability challenge.'”

“Sellers are seeing fewer bids, with nowhere near the above-asking prices. ‘It’s just the adapting to change,’ notes Watson. ‘Recognizing in a balanced market, you don’t see much price growth, right? So where you maybe saw your neighbour selling $100 or $200 [thousand] in some areas higher… you can’t expect that because that was the product of a very, very tight seller’s market, which we’re not in anymore.'”

From Reuters. “After two years of hunting, Volar Yip has put his dream of buying a new home in China’s southeastern city of Foshan on ice, anxious about making a major financial commitment amid a significant slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. The 32-year-old owns a media studio and many of his clients, which include government departments, are now cutting advertising budgets.”

“‘The more I read the news, the more concerned I got,’ Yip told Reuters. ‘All this news about China — the economy, property market and pandemic. Not much was positive.'”

“‘The Omicron wave and draconian lockdowns in around 40 cities have significantly limited mobility, employment, income and the confidence of Chinese households,’ said Nomura chief China economist Ting Lu. ‘A majority of college graduates this year may not be able to find jobs due to the sharp economic slowdown.'”

“Official data showed the unemployment rate for 16-to-24-year-olds hit a record high at 18.2% in April.”

From Good Returns New Zealand. “Property website realestate.co.nz says the slump in housing sales has pushed stock levels up a whopping 77.6% year-on-year nationally, a level not seen since 2019. At the end of May the website had 26,301 residential properties available for sale. In Wellington, which remained in a buyers’ market for the third consecutive month, stock levels almost tripled, up 187.9%, during May compared to the same month last year.”

“Trade Me property data showed Wellington region properties for sale rose by a staggering 90% in April alone. Realestate.co.nz figures also show year-on-year stock levels also rose 168.2% in central North Island, 148.3% in Hawke’s Bay, 147.9% in Wairarapa and 147.7% in Bay of Plenty. The stock increases have impacted demand in some regions and taken some of the heat out of the market, says realestate.co.nz spokeswoman Vanessa Williams. ‘People are asking whether the demand for property will wane enough to see prices reduce.'”

“Month-on-month prices droppeded in 11 regions and by more than 5% in four regions – Waikato -15.5% to $850,381, Gisborne, -9.2% to $669,979, Hawke’s Bay, -5.9% to $842,245, and Southland, -5.8% to $496,612.”

From News.com.au. “The debt owed by an Australian investment company that collapsed at the end of last month has ballooned from an estimated $70 million to a whopping $124 million, liquidators have revealed. The company called REMI Capital, was placed into voluntary administration on May 25. One of the 433 investors impacted was a Melbourne dad of two, who had been left ‘shocked’ and ‘heartbroken’ after REMI Capital collapsed owing his family $300,000.”

“‘This is heartbreaking. I am going home at the end of day and both my wife and I, we are in tears separately driving back home from work,’ Richard told news.com.au at the time. ‘It’s very emotional, it’s impacting my relationship with my wife. This is torture. We don’t know how long this is going to go on for.'”

“Following the creditor’s meeting, Richard said it was ‘disappointing’ to hear about the level of debt and he still did not know if any of his $300,000 would be returned. His wife was very upset, he added. ‘It’s a lifetime effect with us, it breaks our relationship, I’m not sure how the relationship is going to go with my wife,’ he said. ‘We’ve gone from financial freedom to financial prison. My wife is angry that I could not see this was a (problem), but it was backed by real estate and everything looked legit but now it has collapsed badly … and there is no protection for investors.'”

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This Post Has 137 Comments

  1. From the video above:

    6 home buyers in 1 WEEK walked AWAY from their deals?! | What happens now?

    Premiered May 4, 2022 Have you ever been curious on the rights of home buyers if they choose not to complete and finalize the purchase of a home?

    An email came out from a Notary in Langley last week letting the Realtors in her email balst know, for the first time in her career, she had not 1, BUT 6 home buyers walk away from the purchase of a home.

    We hear “it” all the time. I could just give them my deposit and walk away. Well my friend, it’s not quite that easy. Join me on this video where we address the myths around walking away from a firm deal, and what can happens.

    Timestamps:
    0:00 | Intro
    1:00 | Buyers Remorse: What is it?
    2:14 | Why are buyers backing out?
    3:32 | What did prices do over the last few months?
    5:13 | What happens when you back out of purchasing
    7:26 | Backing out of selling or can’t sell
    10:04 | Outro

    1. wow, that’s nuts, I had no idea Canada was that way. Making a “maybe” offer is a BIG DEAL because of this. NO wonder people want to wait in a falling market. And I highly doubt that most buyers have this well explained to them. (Or do and don’t pay any attention, nobody ever seems to read the contracts)

      1. A lawsuit over backing out from a contract can happen in the US as well. A UHS will not give you a back door in the contract they write, you have to put it there yourself.

        The best failure is a well planned one.

  2. A reader sent this in:

    ‘I have an Austin, Lakeway and Georgetown search parameter set up and my inbox has been flooded recently. Seems to be at least a 10x increase over the last couple of weeks. A huge influx of new and existing homes hitting the market… “But, but it’s Austin. We’re immune…”

    ‘I’m seeing something I haven’t seen in years in AZ. “Open houses” flooding my inbox.’

    ‘I see price reductions in LA and actual for sale signs on homes now. But still need the market to cool down more’

    ‘Look at Phoenix inventories. I’ve never seen this, not even in 06-11’

    https://twitter.com/LanningATX/status/1533502025903878147

    2. All of sudden the houses in my San Diego hood are lingering on the market. Just a couple of months ago everything sold at the first open house…or even before. But I’ve noticed a few for sale signs that have gone up and stayed up for a few weeks now.

      Looks like the Fed actually has stopped buying MBS.

      https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOMCB

      If the Fed does start reducing its MBS holdings, I wonder if this might be a bigger factor than interest rates. How many private investors are going to be willing to buy MBS in a clear housing downturn. And if there is a hugely diminished secondary market for MBS what will mortgage rates look like? If a bank knows it won’t be able to sell the mortgage and will have keep the risk on its books, will it even offer mortgages? I think it’s possible a lot of banks will just stop issuing mortgages altogether.

        1. That’s interesting thanks for the link. I wonder why total holdings appears to have flat lined.

          1. They’re buying just enough to replace maturing MBSs for now to keep totals flat-lined. Seriously hoping they just completely quit and stop skewing the mkts. PPT and everything else is ridiculous manipulation.

      2. And if there is a hugely diminished secondary market for MBS what will mortgage rates look like?

        Could that be why mortgage rates have increased significantly more than the federal funds rate?

  3. ‘The last time we saw a similar frenzied market cool down very quickly was in April to November 2005. This is a more striking reversal than we experienced that year’

    I’m not sure if this was added later or I just missed it in the earlier article, but I don’t think I did cuz the AFN published separately. This is meltdown for the main REIC outlet to even mention the dreaded 2005.

    I can see it in the videos. You won’t find it in the Arizona Republic. And last night I watched Tina from Cromford on tee vee in Phoenix and she didn’t mention any of this.

    The video I posted here this weekend had UHS say they had 30% of listings cut price in a week. This is 17 cities, BTW.

    1. I’m actually surprised we haven’t seen a large ‘sudden’ bankruptcy yet. (Sudden bankruptcies will go nicely with all of the sudden deaths.) We should start a pool to bet on when companies like Better.com will treat their employees to locked front doors. Most of the mortgage companies must be burning cash like crazy. We can’t have a real recession until we see some big names go belly up. We know it’s coming, when does the first one hit the news cycle? I will say July 4th just to be patriotic.

  4. Ready to Cry uncle and buy an electric car or do you want more?

    Gas has nearly reached an incredible $10 a gallon

    By Eileen AJ Connelly
    June 4, 2022

    New Yorkers paying five bucks a gallon for gasoline may think things can’t get much worse — but in one California town people are shelling out nearly double that for a fill-up

    A Chevron station in the coastal village of Mendocino about 175 miles north of San Francisco was charging $9.60 a gallon for regular on Friday afternoon.

    https://nypost.com/2022/06/04/gas-nears-10-a-gallon-at-california-station-tops-5-in-nyc/

    Biden: “I Guarantee You We’re Going To End Fossil Fuel”
    Sep 6, 2019

    https://youtu.be/Slszva6kk90

    1. AOC’s Chief of Staff Admits the Green New Deal Is Not about Climate Change

      Jack Crowe
      July 12, 2019

      “Do you guys think of it as a climate thing?” Because we really think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing,” he added.

      The Green New Deal, proposed earlier this year by Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Ed Markey (D., Mass.), would transition the U.S. economy entirely away from fossil fuels within ten years while simultaneously providing a federal jobs and healthcare guarantee. It would also, according to its proponents, advance “social, economic, racial, regional and gender-based justice and equality and cooperative and public ownership.”

      https://sports.yahoo.com/aoc-chief-staff-admits-green-124408358.html

    2. Democrat Party, Real Journalists, and all the other globalists don’t even seem to acknowledge the level of real human suffering this is causing.

      Remember what happened to Marie after she said “let them eat cake?”

      Oh yeah, they sliced her head off with a guillotine.

      Globey, you gonna die ☠️

    3. Gas has nearly reached an incredible $10 a gallon

      Filled up last night for $4.19 at King Soopers. I saw a station at $4.69

  5. ‘It’s very emotional, it’s impacting my relationship with my wife. This is torture. We don’t know how long this is going to go on for’

    The money is gone Dick. Yer all over the stages of grief thing. But you always have twuu wuvv!

    2. It’s very emotional, it’s impacting my relationship with my wife. This is torture. We don’t know how long this is going to go on for’

      I’m confused – which one is the female in the relationship?

      1. This is how recessions form. The company claims they weren’t getting paid so they can’t pay.

        1. Yeah, when those accounts receivable start piling up. You don’t need to read the business section about a recession.

    1. Do you remember when they threatened to get you fired from your job for not getting injected with an experimental gene altering poison?

      I remember. The HBB remembers.

      There will be no “get out of jail free” card for the people who did this.

      Instead, there will be an arrest, a trial, a conviction, then you will be walked from your cell to the gallows, where the hangman will secure the noose around your neck, then the trapdoor will drop, and you will hang.

      And we will repeat this as many times are needed until every participant in this medical genocide hangs.

      No Glowie, but you gonna die ☠️

      2. Do you remember when they threatened to get you fired from your job for not getting injected with an experimental gene altering poison?

        You bet your @zz that I do. And I haven’t forgotten. Which is why I will watch this coming election with great interest.

        I know the mules will be going into overdrive this year, as they know what the consequences will be for losing the House and Senate. The Dems ultimate nightmare scenario: Trump is appointed Speaker, followed by Cackles and PedoJoe being impeached and convicted and Trump being sworn in as President. They will move mountains to keep that from happening.

        1. Trump is appointed Speaker, followed by Cackles and PedoJoe being impeached and convicted and Trump being sworn in as President.

          How does that work?

          1. The Speaker is third in line for the Oval Office. The Speaker does not need to be elected to the House by popular vote. They can pick anyone they want.

          2. The Speaker does not need to be elected to the House by popular vote.

            News to me.

          3. News to me.

            And AFAIK has never happened. So the probability of that times the probability of convicting the President times the probability of convicting the Vice President is close to zero.

          4. So the probability of that

            Still, the screaming would be entertaining.

            Ironically, if Zelensky had answered Trump, we wouldn’t be at war with Russia now.

          6. The Speaker does not need to be elected to the House by popular vote.

            I was surprised when I first learned that.

            As for impeachments and convictions, I’m sure the Dems are scared witless over that prospect. After all, it is something they would do if they had enough votes, especially for the conviction part.

            They could also try an amendment 25 on Biden, though that would make Cackles the president.

          7. In the same way a supreme court justice doesn’t need to be an attorney and the Pope doesn’t need to be a priest.

  7. Morehead City, NC Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY As Outer Banks and Coastal Carolina Housing Inventory Soars As Panic Selling Begins

    https://www.movoto.com/morehead-city-nc/market-trends/

    As one coastal Carolina broker explained, “Our entire market is vacation homeowners and 95% of want out right now. They see the handwriting on the wall.”

  9. Checkout the Peak Prosperity video on the youtubez. His take on energy says we are never going back to the good old days, banks planning for upheaval and riots across the west, demographic collapse in many countries including the US and China.

    1. “demographic collapse in many countries including the US and China.”

      Chris is plagiarizing Peter Zeihan. Except that the US won’t have nearly the demographic collapse as other countries will.

      1. “Except that the US won’t have nearly the demographic collapse as other countries will.”

        Actually it will be much worse. Import turd world, be turd world.

      2. “Except that the US won’t have nearly the demographic collapse as other countries will.”

        But that will require immigration, you know…the astronauts, mathematicians, surgeons, etc.

    2. His take on energy says we are never going back to the good old days, banks planning for upheaval and riots across the west

      The “elites” of the world (their term, not mine) have pushed things too far because they became too wealthy and comfortable. History is riddled with the corpses of these people. They finally get too comfy and they lose their heads, literally.

      1. planning for upheaval and riots across the west

        This is exactly what they want. They can then claim that they will fix everything with their Great Reset, as long as we sign over the west , our rights and everything we own to them.

        And don’t forget that Brandon threatened the American people with Nukes and F-15’s if we push back violently against their plans.

  11. Kurt Schlichter’s latest column, published today:

    No Compromise

    https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2022/06/06/no-compromise-on-guns-n2608232

    New York Times, Washington Post, and all the other Real Journalists who keeping talking about the elimination of the Second Amendment like it’s an inevitability, no compromise.

    Zero compromise. None. Never. We saw what happened in Australia and in Canada. We saw what the supporters of medical genocide tried to do here in the United States.

    No compromise.

    We remember what happened with every socialist tyrannical regime in the 20th century and tens of millions exterminated by their own governments.

    No compromise.

  12. “Rocket Homes reported that the median home price in May in Kootenai County was $521,000, down 30.8% from a month ago.

    Oh dear. So the rocket has hit apogee and has now nosed over. This is the part where gravity is not your friend, FBs.

        1. Lockdown equity locusts moving in destroyed any semblance of a normal mkt in Idaho.
          I moved to Boise in Oct 2019 for a job, and I just left last month (now in Sierra Vista, AZ for a new Fed job). The mkt there shot up over 70% in the 2.x years I was there.
          “Totally normal”.
          Bunch of damned idiots moved there. Median income in the area can’t support home loans that high, so the entire mkt is going to tank just as fast as it went up.

          1. The mkt there shot up over 70% in the 2.x years I was there.
            As an example, I was looking at 3 bed, 2 bath, 3-car garages (for the hobby Wagoneer) SFHs, and they were all $260-300k in late 2019. Now they’re closer to $500-550k.

          2. ‘now in Sierra Vista, AZ for a new Fed job’

            My condolences. Just kidding. The night skies are a plus. Is this job border patrol related?

  13. Multiple offers are no longer flying fast and furious on every new home on the market. People have stopped buying homes sight unseen, which has caught sellers by surprise.”

    I’m looking forward to seeing the “winning bid/sight unseen” FBs being evicted from their foreclosed shacks and taking up residence in their local Bidenville homeless encampments.

  14. Some good news for a Monday, in these times of seemingly all bad news.

    Russia Today — Foreign fighters in Ukraine complain of arms shortages (6/6/2022):

    “Volunteers in Ukraine are refusing to fight due to a lack of weapons, according to Canadian media report.

    The massive inflow of weapons into Ukraine from the West isn’t reaching many of the soldiers who actually need them, the Toronto Star reported last week. Time constraints, incompetence and corruption are resulting in poorly equipped frontline fighters, the newspaper claimed.

    The report, which was based on interviews with foreign volunteer combatants and a Canadian group fundraising to equip soldiers in Ukraine, is the latest evidence of what the paper called “a dark and discouraging reality” on the country’s frontlines.”

    https://www.rt.com/russia/556671-ukraine-frontline-weapons-shortage/

    If you want to read misinformation go read the New York Times and the Washington Post.

    Russia is winning.

    1. Some polling data from the New York Post:

      “Asked to rank which single issue they think is the most important this November, 21% say inflation, 19% say the economy, 17% say gun violence, 12% say abortion.

      The remainder come in at single digits, including 8% gas prices, 6% immigration, 5% climate change, 3% crime, COVID 2% and Russia and taxes are tied at 1%.”

      Russia at 1%?

      Do you remember the unanimous Democrat Party vote, including all of the “progressives” to send $50+ billion to Ukraine? Not without a little help from Liz Cheney, Lindsey Graham, and all the other NAMBLA Republicans.

      (NAMBLA = the North American Man-Boy Love Association, see also: The Lincoln Project)

      Russia is winning.

    2. The massive inflow of weapons into Ukraine from the West isn’t reaching many of the soldiers who actually need them, the Toronto Star reported last week.

      Pouring sophisticated infantry small arms and shoulder-fired antitank and anti-aircraft missiles into a country that’s a black hole for all manner of corruption and criminality? Those weapons are going to be showing up in terrorist incidents all over Western Europe.

    3. It was hard to discern truth from propaganda for a while. I was watching ostensibly independent non MSM reports for a while that were clearly depicting an incremental, but systematic, eradication of Ukrainian forces in the east.

      I thought maybe these were Russians disinformation sources or shills, but now it really looks like those sources were fairly accurate and the western MSM has been the major source of disinformation.

      The sanctions are a disaster for the west. We are still buying Russian oil. They just sell to an intermediate and they we buy it at a substantial mark up. A new international payment system is being constructed that will bypass the dollar. Most of the arms we send into Ukraine are being captured or destroyed in short order. This looks more and more like a huge miscalculation by the US and it’s allies.

      I suspect Zelensky is going to get overthrown when the people realize their entire adult male population is being fed into a meat grinder by a globalist puppet who has an 30 million dollar Miami mansion escape plan. I wouldn’t be surprised if this misadventure actually ends up breaking up NATO.

      The west is getting out maneuvered by Russia on every front.

      But at least on the home front the Pentagon is launching devastating forays against transgender bias in the military.

      1. The west is getting out maneuvered by Russia

        They are realistic. We are Globalist. Globalism turns everything to crap.

      2. and the western MSM has been the major source of disinformation

        That was my assumption when this sh!tshow began.

        The sanctions are a disaster for the west

        That too was rather evident from the start. Somehow, McDonald’s shutting down in Russia was supposed to be a shattering disaster for Putin.

        2. Russia was supposed to be a shattering disaster for Putin

          I can’t find it now but I remember seeing a video of a hot Russian woman “bemoaning” the loss of McDonald’s fried and processed food.

        3. I remember a fake news article that pointed out with these sanctions Russians wouldn’t be able to purchase necessities like PlayStations.

          1. “…necessities like PlayStations.”

            Could be a necessity given their long cold winters.

          2. Could be a necessity given their long cold winters.

            Given their price range $500-$900 USD, I’m gonna go out on a limb and guess that the average Russian can’t afford one anyway.

  15. “‘If it’s on the market for two weeks and there aren’t any offers, people wonder what’s going on,’ said Chad Oakland with Northwest Realty Group.

    Okay, so realtors are liars and all, but are sellers really that stupid that they “don’t know what’s going on”? If there’s no offers, it’s because your shack isn’t priced to sell in the current market.

    1. “it’s because your shack isn’t priced to sell in the current market.”

      “The current market” is as favorable as it gets for sellers so they best giddyup and be quick about it.

    2. The grandma-finally-died house on my block just put down another price cut … of $5K. 🤣 IMO they need to cut at least another $25K just for a nibble.

  16. May numbers were not available on Friday. ‘It is impossible to underprice a house,’ Oakland said. ‘It’s super easy to overprice it.’”

    Oh my. This seems to be quite the pivot from the UHS mantra of “buy now or be priced out forever.”

  17. ‘Supply is growing fast; demand is weakening; sales volumes are in swift decline; more asking prices are being lowered: listing cancellations and expirations are starting to rise.’”

    Up next: sob stories from “victims” of “predatory lending.”

    1. Next up:
      1) Claims of race-based predatory lending
      2) Endless Democratic political yammering about “Save Our Homes” bailouts, with little action to follow

      1. They will be bailed out this go round. Gbmit, fed, etc. will put a floor on the housing prices.

        Total collapse is the only way to go back to normal….which is the next crisis.

  18. Instead of 25% gains year over year, Lopez said home values should fall slightly after Labor Day as the market settles into its normal offseason.”

    Slightly, huh? We’ll see about that.

    1. Just like any other Ponzi scheme, a Credit/Housing bubble must grow or collapse. There is no middle ground.

  19. “No new vacation rentals will be allowed in West Marin for up to two years under emergency rules adopted Tuesday by the Marin County Board of Supervisors. About 10% of the 5,250 residential properties in the affected West Marin communities are registered with the county as short-term rentals.

    Die, speculator scum.

  20. Is it safe to say that Wall Street’s big bad bear scare is over for the current market cycle, and it’s blue skies above with bluebirds singing from here on out in 2022?

    1. The Financial Times
      Opinion Equities
      There is another act to come in this market drama
      History shows that a pause in losses is usually followed by a further spiral downwards
      Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange
      Fed action or inaction can determine whether a market falls into bear territory
      Ruchir Sharma yesterday
      The writer is chair of Rockefeller International

      US stocks have pulled back from the edge of the cliff — the 20 per cent drop that defines a bear market. Now many people are wondering how this drama, still the worst start of any year since 1970, ends. My view is that this is the intermission, and that the next act will bring another step down.

      Past patterns suggest as much. Records for the S&P 500 going back to 1926 show a total of 15 bear markets, with a median drop of 34 per cent over 17 months. In nearly 75 per cent of these cases — 11 of the 15 — selling paused noticeably when the market was down 15 to 20 per cent from the peak, reversing some losses before resuming the trip to the bottom. This roughly sketched history suggests that what we are witnessing is the intermission stage of a bear market.

      There are other factors pointing the same way. The scale of the recent bounce, near double digits, is in line with past bear market pauses and thus not necessarily a sign that the declines are over.

      In the 11 bear markets that were interrupted by a pause, the median length of the pause was four months. Further, this time the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to come to the rescue of the markets — not with interest rates still well below the rate of inflation.

      What triggered this year’s market fall was more than the usual suspect — Fed tightening. Rather, it was the realisation that this tightening foretells the end of an era. With inflation resurgent and anything but transitory, as the easy money crowd has long been arguing, the Fed cannot easily back off to reassure investors, as it has for over three decades.

      Fed action or inaction can determine whether a market falls into bear territory. Since 1926, there have been five cases — separate from the bear markets — in which stocks fell nearly 20 per cent but didn’t cross that threshold.

      In all five, the market stopped falling only when the Fed intervened, loosening monetary policy. Four came within the recent era of progressively easier money — in 1990, 1998, 2011, and 2018. Now, however, a Fed rescue is highly unlikely, unless the economy skids into recession and takes the wind out of inflation.

      A recession would, however, spell even deeper trouble for the market. And as consumer confidence and other indicators turn for the worse, the chances of a downturn are growing.
      …

    2. Stock markets in Zimbabwe and Venezuela soared too, as their currencies were being debased into worthlessness.

      1. “With inflation resurgent and anything but transitory, as the easy money crowd has long been arguing, the Fed cannot easily back off to reassure investors, as it has for over three decades.”

        With the Fed loudly and dramatically taking deliberate steps to remove the punchbowl, it’s checkmate for the bull herd.

        1. “taking deliberate steps to remove the punchbowl,”

          Are they really? Too little too late. Before summer end, they will capitulate and re-institute QE, but will call it something different.

    1. From the comments: “I’m sick of Ukraine. If they just gave up and stopped resisting we wouldn’t be in this mess. Ultimately, we all know Russia are going to win this war anyway.”

    2. Petrol breaks £8-a-gallon barrier for first time EVER

      One thing I recall from the UK is that their fuel prices are very uniform across the country. So that isn’t an extreme value like say prices in Marin County. That’s what everyone pays.

  22. New York Post — Will the secret New York migrant flights ever stop? (6/5/2022):

    “As illegal migration at the southern border breaks new records, the Biden administration has upped the frequency of its secret flights on an industrial scale.

    Migrant flights into New York have ratcheted up in recent weeks to almost one per night, and now a new airport is being utilized to handle the overflow, in an apparent bid by the administration to avoid images of border chaos before the November midterm elections.

    The Post has viewed video of two flights arriving at Stewart from El Paso, Texas, via Jacksonville, Fla., at 10:59 p.m. May 17 and at 12:13 a.m. May 22, with about 100 to 150 migrants on each plane.

    The footage shows the same conveyer-belt operation previously observed by The Post in Westchester, in which migrants alight from the planes late at night and are transferred to waiting charter buses to be deposited at residential complexes or highway rest stops around the tri-state area.

    As with the flights into Westchester since last summer, the majority of migrants appear to fit the cheap labor demographic: Hispanic males in their late teens or early 20s.”

    https://nypost.com/2022/06/05/secret-uptick-in-new-york-migrant-flights/

    Did you know that Replacement Theory is real?

    Did you also know that the Southern Poverty Law Center was never elected to govern anything?

    Never elected to govern anything.

  23. OK – first JPM’s Dimon, then Tres Sec Yellen, now Morgan Stanley all admitting mistakes and predicting trouble in the economy. Is this completely a coincidence, or are they doing some back scene coordinating.

    How does real estate and REITs handle the trouble waters?

    Global markets are in the beginning of a fundamental shift after a nearly 15-year period defined by low interest rates and cheap corporate debt, according to Morgan Stanley co-President Ted Pick.

    The transition from the economic conditions that followed the 2008 financial crisis and whatever comes next will take “12, 18, 24 months” to unfold, according to Pick, who spoke this week at a New York financial conference.
    …
    By draining risk from the global financial system for years, central banks forced investors to take more risk to earn yield. Unprofitable corporations have been kept afloat by ready access to cheap debt. Thousands of start-ups have bloomed in recent years with a money burning, growth-at-any-cost mandate.

    That is over as central banks prioritize the battle against runaway inflation.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/05/morgan-stanleys-pick-says-a-paradigm-shift-has-begun-in-markets-what-to-expect.html

    1. Is this completely a coincidence, or are they doing some back scene coordinating.

      The WEF met in Davos two weeks ago.

      3. But why are the coming out and admitting the failures right now. I dont understand what they hope to gain.

        1. But why

          Because bad things are happening and it will get worse. They’ve tried blaming everything on the boogey man, but nobody believes them. The best they can do now is “I didn’t mean to do this to you.”

  24. Orlando, FL Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As The Toxic Rot Of Subprime Mortgage Defaults Looms Over Florida Housing Market

    https://www.movoto.com/fl/32820/market-trends/

    As one national broker conceded, “We’ve been scraping the bottom of the buyer barrel for 15 years or more. Why do you think mortgage defaults are 600% higher than long term trend?”

  25. Did you know that the 2020 election was stolen?

    “Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), a co-chair of the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack, said Sunday the panel’s discoveries have made her even more concerned about the dangers to U.S. democracy.”

    The 2020 election was stolen.

    “It’s an ongoing threat,” Cheney said in an interview on CBS News of efforts to delegitimize U.S. elections by former President Donald Trump and his allies. “It is extremely broad. It’s extremely well organized. It’s really chilling.”

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/liz-cheney-jan-6-panel-hearings_n_629d8b80e4b016c4eefaf629

    The 2020 election was stolen.

    1. dangers to U.S. democracy

      Good, nothing to worry about then given the US isn’t a democracy!

      1. a democracy!

        Words don’t mean what you think they mean, they mean what “they” say it means.

    1. 🤣

      The best part about this isn’t those whole believed this BS (like bidding wars), it’s those who were dumb enough to repeat it.

  27. Any thoughts on why longterm Treasurys are selling off today? Looks like they are already down 3%, and dropping like a rock.

    1. The Financial Times
      CFA Institute
      Demand ‘falls off cliff’ for CFA financial analyst qualification
      Number of applicants for ‘hardest exam in finance’ remains well below pre-Covid levels
      Candidates complete Chartered Financial Analyst exam at the Sheraton Hotel in New York
      In the year to August 2021, 125,775 people took the exams after the CFA Institute moved from written to online assessment
      Attracta Mooney and Chris Flood in London yesterday

      A professional qualification known as the “hardest exam in finance” is falling out of fashion, with applicants for the chartered financial analyst programme running well below pre-coronavirus pandemic levels for a third consecutive year.

      Qualifying as a CFA, which requires about 1,000 hours of study, has long been considered essential for many careers in finance. But Margaret Franklin, head of the CFA Institute, which provides the qualification, said the pandemic was dragging down demand.

      “Candidate numbers are lower than they have been, as a result of the pandemic. It has been more challenging as students want to be assured that they will be able to sit the exams,” she said.
      …

    1. Yahoo Finance
      How a crypto bank run in Terra’s UST could rock cryptocurrencies
      David Hollerith
      May 10, 2022·5 min read

      Following a massive shedding of cryptocurrencies and other risky assets by investors, the stablecoin TerraUSD (UST) “de-pegged” from its essential $1 value this week, while its sister token Luna dropped 79% from $82 to $17.2 over five days.

      In a fight to save both cryptocurrencies, the Luna Foundation Guard (LFG), a nonprofit supporting the Terra blockchain, has deployed $1.5 billion in bitcoin and UST loans.

      Whether the stablecoin fully recovers or collapses, the ongoing battle could have a lasting impact on the crypto market.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-bank-run-terra-ust-cryptocurrencies-001555393.html

      1. “…In a fight to save both cryptocurrencies…” “…Luna ..has deployed $1.5 billion in bitcoin and UST loans…”

        So let me get this straight: A limited supply of nothing borrowing from another limited supply of nothing in an effort to right the books.

        Some major genius at work on this one…

  32. Meanwhile, the Democrat-on-Arrival hordes keep flooding across our southern border in response to the Biden regime’s green light and appointment of the epically incompetent Kamala Harris as “Border security Czar.”

    Migrant in potentially the largest caravan ever demands Biden keep asylum promise

    https://www.foxnews.com/world/migrant-largest-caravan-biden-promise-asylum

    The Haitian migrant cited President Biden’s vow to end Title 42 and called on the president to keep his promise

    1. The caravan by some accounts is almost 6 km long. I wonder what these people are being told before joining. That they will all be allowed to enter? The Mexicans don’t even try to stop them at the Guatemalan border, they just let them in.

      I also notice that the caravan members wave the flags of the homelands they are fleeing from.

  35. Matt Walsh Asks Maasai Tribe “What is a Woman?”

    Jun 2, 2022

    ‘In his Daily Wire original documentary, “What is a Woman?” Matt travels to Africa to ask local villagers about transgenderism and if their notions of gender are as fluid as in the West. What they tell Matt is… different from many of the “experts” back home.’

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yAnHFj4IK0

    1:59.

    1. In Masai tribe, there is no ‘genderfluid’ nonsense. Just man has penis and woman has vagina.

  36. The CRASH Is Already Happening? | Halifax Real Estate Market

    May 27, 2022 The Halifax market correction is starting… or is it? well, let’s break it down. The Halifax Real Estate prices have been soaring but for the wrong reasons. With the fears of the crash happening, buyers are tired BUT there is a way we can change this before its too late!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uonY_thcRH8

    2:05: “BIG ONE! Pricing below market value, like waaay below market value”

    This is economic and comedy gold baby!

    1. I don’t think I’ve ever said OMFG on this blog, but this video deserves it. I have just put this in the HBB time capsule!

      1. HBB time capsule!

        She’s got 18 likes!

        Probably mostly for the unconscious dog on the desk.

  38. “…as a percentage, that may be the biggest jump we’ve seen.”

    People who understand differential equations will attest that the biggest ever percentage jump in inventory could quickly morph into an inventory glut with CR8Ring prices.

    1. The Financial Times
      Markets volatility
      ‘Liquidity is terrible’: poor trading conditions fuel Wall Street tumult
      Small trades are triggering outsized price swings in the world’s biggest capital markets
      Wall Street sign and chart montage
      Liquidity across US markets is now at its worst level since the early days of the pandemic in 2020, according to investors and big US banks
      Eric Platt, Joe Rennison and Kate Duguid in New York yesterday

      Traders’ ability to seamlessly buy and sell stocks, bonds and other financial products on Wall Street has deteriorated sharply this year, adding fuel to the big swings on the world’s biggest and deepest capital markets.

      Liquidity across US markets is now at its worst level since the early days of the pandemic in 2020, according to investors and big US banks who say money managers are struggling to execute trades without affecting prices.

      Relatively small deals worth just $50mn could knock the price or prompt a rally in exchange traded funds and index futures contracts that typically trade hands without causing major ripples, said Michael Edwards, deputy chief investment officer of hedge fund Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers.

      He added: “Liquidity is terrible.”

      The fraught conditions have collided with a big shift in the global economy that has caught many portfolio managers off-guard: a growth slowdown, rising interest rates and intense inflation. Unprepared for the turn in sentiment, traders have abruptly repositioned their portfolios.

      The liquidity drought is also affecting vital markets that companies use to fund themselves and governments tap to finance public spending. Minutes from the US central bank’s latest policy meeting published last month showed that officials were concerned with the problems being created in the Treasury and commodities market by weak liquidity.
      …

    2. My simple advice:

      1) If a buyer is unavailable to pay your wishing price, either lower your reservation price or don’t sell.

      2) If you don’t use leverage to buy stuff you can’t afford, then you never need to worry about being underwater if prices drop below the amount you owe.

      Liquidity problems solved!

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