A report from Commercial Property Executive. "An inverted yield curve and forecasts of a dropoff…
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Jun 11, 2022 The Canada 5 year bond yield continues to rip, repricing mortgages very quickly. The typical 5 year mortgage in Canada will hit 5% in the next week or so. This will create ongoing demand destruction, which is ultimately the goal of the Bank of Canada after fumbling monetary policy over the past several years.
12:26.
‘Last month’s rout in retail stocks followed discouraging earnings reports from big names in the U.S., such as Walmart and Target, which pointed to some of these trends. While the effects of these shifts will be felt differently across retail categories and price points, there are choppy waters ahead for many. In May, an index of consumer confidence published by the Conference Board of Canada saw its biggest drop since the outset of the pandemic.’
“If we don’t see weak spending right now, it’s really a matter of time,” said Sohaib Shahid, director of economic innovation at the Ottawa-based think tank.’
‘The ongoing global supply-chain disruption, mixed with these changes in buying habits, is making it more difficult for retailers to forecast the levels of inventory they need or can expect from suppliers at any given time. Walmart, Kohl’s, Target, Abercrombie & Fitch and Foot Locker all said recently that inventory levels have increased significantly over last year. Now, after scrambling to meet demand, some are stuck holding product that not enough people want to buy. At Target, that includes electronics, clothing and kitchen appliances – some of them bulky items that take up valuable warehouse space.’
“We like the fact that our inventory is up because so much of it is needed to be in stock,” Walmart chief executive Doug McMillon told analysts on a recent earnings call. But “a 32-per-cent increase is higher than we want.”
‘In 2020 and 2021, cancellation rates on inbound shipments from suppliers spiked – from the usual 8 per cent to 10 per cent to 25 per cent to 30 per cent, MEC’s Mr. Taylor said.’
“So virtually every retailer I know has too much product on order, or coming in, for their sales plan. Everyone is starting to cancel product [orders]. The bigger they are, the harder it is to react quickly enough,” he said. “If consumers put their hands in their pockets, everyone’s going to be a bit dinged.”
“So virtually every retailer I know has too much product on order, or coming in, for their sales plan. Everyone is starting to cancel product [orders]. The bigger they are, the harder it is to react quickly enough,”
I’m thinking a state-of-the-art big screen teevee may be on our foreseeable planning horizon. I’d be happy to help our retailer friends alleviate their glut, provided they can offer us a suitable price discount as an incentive. The inflation in gasoline prices and interest rates doesn’t much dent our family budget. It’s an excellent time to be out of debt with liquid cash.
“So virtually every retailer I know has too much product on order…”
The inflation problem for business is after they sell something the cost to restock their inventory has risen eating into their profit margin.
LIFO
The inflation in gasoline prices
Not to make too fine a point, but rising prices of stuff isn’t inflation. Inflation is the flood of fiat money that precedes some prices bursting upwards. The same folks that profited from this flood of money call rising prices “OMG it’s inflation, who could have predicted that”. They have already taken their cut.
Froma Harrop: California Democrats had to educate the media
‘If the activist left succeeded in portraying itself as the heart and soul of the Democratic Party, the fault lies in much of the political media. Rather than sending Democrats a message, California has sent the media a message on where Democrats really stand on crime.’
‘It’s notable that Caruso did quite well among Black men, though he was running against Rep. Karen Bass, former chair of the Congressional Black Caucus. It is equally notable the Bass herself ran afoul of some activists on the left for pushing her own crime-fighting agenda. Caruso and Bass will compete in a November runoff.’
‘Voters in San Francisco, meanwhile, booted out Chesa Boudin, an ultrawoke former public defender who became district attorney. This came as a no-brainer to any conscious observer of the fraying quality of life in that gorgeous city.’
‘If the activist left succeeded in portraying itself as the heart and soul of the Democratic Party, the fault lies in much of the political media. Rather than sending Democrats a message, California has sent the media a message on where Democrats really stand on crime.’
‘The very public falling out between Mr Boudin and Ms Breed has been emblematic of a wider argument that is going on within the Democratic party over law and order. The Democrats run many large cities across America. However, with murder rates and drug deaths spiking, cities and the progressives governing them have faced intense pressure to change tack.’
‘In San Francisco, Mr Boudin failed to convince voters his progressive approach was working – losing a recall vote on Tuesday. Many San Franciscans had become exasperated with how a wealthy town had somehow managed to have gained a reputation as a failed city.’
‘The two politicians disagreement has had an impact on the ground though. Local police say they are unsure of what kind of crime they should make arrests on. Is San Francisco a city that practices tough love or leniency? And people sleeping rough say the approach to them can vary from day to day. Sometimes they’re moved on, or even arrested. But mostly they’re ignored.’
‘Jay says the police mainly leave him alone. “Unless you’re committing extreme violence, the police don’t care”. He says he doesn’t worry about injecting fentanyl – he knows what he’s doing.’
‘Many people in the Tenderloin say something similar, even though they admit to knowing dozens who have died of a drug overdose in the past two years.’
‘With Mr Boudin out of office Ms Breed now has the freedom to implement her law and order vision in the city. From the result of the recall vote, it would appear that is what seemingly liberal San Franciscans want.’
There is a new drug, iso, 50x more potent than fentanyl. We r phucked
Karl Marx will soon be “far right” in leftist usually. Supreme court Ketanji doesn’t know what a woman is.
“Voters in San Francisco, meanwhile, booted out Chesa Boudin, an ultrawoke former public defender who became district attorney. This came as a no-brainer to any conscious observer of the fraying quality of life in that gorgeous city.”
Violent minority criminals have squandered the progressive sympathies extended them, and of course COVID19 protocols released many of these repeat offenders from jails and prisons.
‘Complete with a trigger warning (“This column contains references to disordered eating”), Foreman’s piece noted that his alleged malady — “a compulsion to eat less than needed when [in] either in social settings or when [one has] trouble estimating the amount of food [they’re] consuming” — still remains undiagnosed.’
“In theory, Stanford’s dining halls present students with the opportunity to eat as much as they need given its buffet format,” Foreman wrote. “Yet students like me may struggle to take enough of any of the available food when they are charged with portioning it themselves.”
‘If this doesn’t already sound farcical enough, Foreman followed up with several suggestions for Stanford to coddle his alleged needs, such as “educat[ing] the student body regarding disordered eating.” He also noted the university did contact him regarding his condition, but he never followed up: “Despite my struggles, I never sought help with my disordered eating from Stanford. But it’s not fair to place the blame squarely on my shoulders […] the fact that [Stanford’s] email was the only dedicated outreach, especially for someone with a history of disordered eating, is deeply concerning.”
‘So … Foreman didn’t budge an inch when Stanford reached out to him … and it’s Stanford’s fault.’
‘Where does this sense of entitlement come from? Foreman sure seems like a bright enough guy, but … has he ever been told “no” in his life?’
Jun 11, 2022 The Canada 5 year bond yield continues to rip, repricing mortgages very quickly. The typical 5 year mortgage in Canada will hit 5% in the next week or so. This will create ongoing demand destruction, which is ultimately the goal of the Bank of Canada after fumbling monetary policy over the past several years.
12:26.
‘Last month’s rout in retail stocks followed discouraging earnings reports from big names in the U.S., such as Walmart and Target, which pointed to some of these trends. While the effects of these shifts will be felt differently across retail categories and price points, there are choppy waters ahead for many. In May, an index of consumer confidence published by the Conference Board of Canada saw its biggest drop since the outset of the pandemic.’
“If we don’t see weak spending right now, it’s really a matter of time,” said Sohaib Shahid, director of economic innovation at the Ottawa-based think tank.’
‘The ongoing global supply-chain disruption, mixed with these changes in buying habits, is making it more difficult for retailers to forecast the levels of inventory they need or can expect from suppliers at any given time. Walmart, Kohl’s, Target, Abercrombie & Fitch and Foot Locker all said recently that inventory levels have increased significantly over last year. Now, after scrambling to meet demand, some are stuck holding product that not enough people want to buy. At Target, that includes electronics, clothing and kitchen appliances – some of them bulky items that take up valuable warehouse space.’
“We like the fact that our inventory is up because so much of it is needed to be in stock,” Walmart chief executive Doug McMillon told analysts on a recent earnings call. But “a 32-per-cent increase is higher than we want.”
‘In 2020 and 2021, cancellation rates on inbound shipments from suppliers spiked – from the usual 8 per cent to 10 per cent to 25 per cent to 30 per cent, MEC’s Mr. Taylor said.’
“So virtually every retailer I know has too much product on order, or coming in, for their sales plan. Everyone is starting to cancel product [orders]. The bigger they are, the harder it is to react quickly enough,” he said. “If consumers put their hands in their pockets, everyone’s going to be a bit dinged.”
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-retailers-bracing-unpredictable-tapped-out-consumers-inflation/
“So virtually every retailer I know has too much product on order, or coming in, for their sales plan. Everyone is starting to cancel product [orders]. The bigger they are, the harder it is to react quickly enough,”
I’m thinking a state-of-the-art big screen teevee may be on our foreseeable planning horizon. I’d be happy to help our retailer friends alleviate their glut, provided they can offer us a suitable price discount as an incentive. The inflation in gasoline prices and interest rates doesn’t much dent our family budget. It’s an excellent time to be out of debt with liquid cash.
“So virtually every retailer I know has too much product on order…”
The inflation problem for business is after they sell something the cost to restock their inventory has risen eating into their profit margin.
LIFO
The inflation in gasoline prices
Not to make too fine a point, but rising prices of stuff isn’t inflation. Inflation is the flood of fiat money that precedes some prices bursting upwards. The same folks that profited from this flood of money call rising prices “OMG it’s inflation, who could have predicted that”. They have already taken their cut.
Froma Harrop: California Democrats had to educate the media
‘If the activist left succeeded in portraying itself as the heart and soul of the Democratic Party, the fault lies in much of the political media. Rather than sending Democrats a message, California has sent the media a message on where Democrats really stand on crime.’
‘It’s notable that Caruso did quite well among Black men, though he was running against Rep. Karen Bass, former chair of the Congressional Black Caucus. It is equally notable the Bass herself ran afoul of some activists on the left for pushing her own crime-fighting agenda. Caruso and Bass will compete in a November runoff.’
‘Voters in San Francisco, meanwhile, booted out Chesa Boudin, an ultrawoke former public defender who became district attorney. This came as a no-brainer to any conscious observer of the fraying quality of life in that gorgeous city.’
‘If the activist left succeeded in portraying itself as the heart and soul of the Democratic Party, the fault lies in much of the political media. Rather than sending Democrats a message, California has sent the media a message on where Democrats really stand on crime.’
‘Guess what? They don’t like it.’
https://www.sunjournal.com/2022/06/12/froma-harrop-california-democrats-had-to-educate-the-media/
‘The very public falling out between Mr Boudin and Ms Breed has been emblematic of a wider argument that is going on within the Democratic party over law and order. The Democrats run many large cities across America. However, with murder rates and drug deaths spiking, cities and the progressives governing them have faced intense pressure to change tack.’
‘In San Francisco, Mr Boudin failed to convince voters his progressive approach was working – losing a recall vote on Tuesday. Many San Franciscans had become exasperated with how a wealthy town had somehow managed to have gained a reputation as a failed city.’
‘The two politicians disagreement has had an impact on the ground though. Local police say they are unsure of what kind of crime they should make arrests on. Is San Francisco a city that practices tough love or leniency? And people sleeping rough say the approach to them can vary from day to day. Sometimes they’re moved on, or even arrested. But mostly they’re ignored.’
‘Jay says the police mainly leave him alone. “Unless you’re committing extreme violence, the police don’t care”. He says he doesn’t worry about injecting fentanyl – he knows what he’s doing.’
‘Many people in the Tenderloin say something similar, even though they admit to knowing dozens who have died of a drug overdose in the past two years.’
‘With Mr Boudin out of office Ms Breed now has the freedom to implement her law and order vision in the city. From the result of the recall vote, it would appear that is what seemingly liberal San Franciscans want.’
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/northamerica/northamerica-top-stories/what-a-san-francisco-vote-says-about-the-us-left/ar-AAYmvG7
There is a new drug, iso, 50x more potent than fentanyl. We r phucked
Karl Marx will soon be “far right” in leftist usually. Supreme court Ketanji doesn’t know what a woman is.
“Voters in San Francisco, meanwhile, booted out Chesa Boudin, an ultrawoke former public defender who became district attorney. This came as a no-brainer to any conscious observer of the fraying quality of life in that gorgeous city.”
Violent minority criminals have squandered the progressive sympathies extended them, and of course COVID19 protocols released many of these repeat offenders from jails and prisons.
‘Complete with a trigger warning (“This column contains references to disordered eating”), Foreman’s piece noted that his alleged malady — “a compulsion to eat less than needed when [in] either in social settings or when [one has] trouble estimating the amount of food [they’re] consuming” — still remains undiagnosed.’
“In theory, Stanford’s dining halls present students with the opportunity to eat as much as they need given its buffet format,” Foreman wrote. “Yet students like me may struggle to take enough of any of the available food when they are charged with portioning it themselves.”
‘If this doesn’t already sound farcical enough, Foreman followed up with several suggestions for Stanford to coddle his alleged needs, such as “educat[ing] the student body regarding disordered eating.” He also noted the university did contact him regarding his condition, but he never followed up: “Despite my struggles, I never sought help with my disordered eating from Stanford. But it’s not fair to place the blame squarely on my shoulders […] the fact that [Stanford’s] email was the only dedicated outreach, especially for someone with a history of disordered eating, is deeply concerning.”
‘So … Foreman didn’t budge an inch when Stanford reached out to him … and it’s Stanford’s fault.’
‘Where does this sense of entitlement come from? Foreman sure seems like a bright enough guy, but … has he ever been told “no” in his life?’
https://www.thecollegefix.com/washington-post-in-house-spat-shows-weve-gone-overboard-with-therapeutic-me-culture/
“…and it’s Stanford’s fault.”
Of course it is!
BTW, where is the petting room with comfort animals?
https://i.pinimg.com/564x/a2/c6/36/a2c6361b2917b648df57ad9b5b254912.jpg
🙂
Hahaha!
“Panic in the Canadian Mortgage Market”
Not to worry! This is ‘Murika. What starts in Kda stays in Kda. We ain’t got no stinkin’ contagion!
They are in a more precarious place, having paper over the last little correction.
How are your cryptocurrency HODLings holding up these daze?
William Suberg
38 minutes ago
Bitcoin price drops to lowest since May as Ethereum market trades at 18.4% loss
Bitcoin threatens its lowest weekly close since late 2020 as low weekend liquidity exacerbates existing weakness.
…
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-drops-to-lowest-since-may-as-ethereum-market-trades-at-18-4-loss
Why did the term “relentless asspounding” just spontaneously pop into my head when I posted that?
Toluca Lake, CA Housing Prices Crater 28% YOY As Desperation Blankets Southern California Housing Market
https://www.movoto.com/toluca-lake-ca/market-trends/
As a noted economist joked, “Elvis sightings are more credible than anything a Realtor says.”