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A Glut Of Listings Are Being Met With Less Fervent Demand

A report from Market Place. “Lately, Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather has been using the term ‘hibernation’ to describe this changing housing market. ‘Just in terms of, like, how little activity is happening right now for both buyers and sellers,’ she said. Buyers are adapting to the fast pace of change, said Jonathan Miller, CEO of real estate appraiser Miller Samuel. But sellers?  ‘It’s hard for them to capitulate to market conditions because they’re sort of wedded to what the value is, and then all of a sudden conditions change,’ he said.”

The East Bay Times in California. “Q: My husband is a real estate agent. Last week, the realty firm where he works had five sets of homebuyers cancel their home sales. My husband’s homebuyers canceled first. It’s infuriating. He worked on behalf of his homebuyers for over a year.  Today, I learned all the homebuyers ‘are walking away’ from their earnest money deposit. Where does the canceling homebuyer’s money go? To the sellers or realty firms?”

“A: It is not uncommon for a homebuyer to walk away from a sale and proclaim, ‘They can keep my deposit.’ ‘They’ means the sellers. Full stop. Conversely, your husband, a real estate agent, can only be paid by his agency. Lest we forget, he chose commission-only sales. No sale, no paycheck.”

The South Florida Business Journal. “Ron Shuffield, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices EWM Realty in Miami, expects home prices to soften amid a considerable rise in luxury listings. After poring over MLS data from between January and mid-June on homes $2 million and up, he found: Single-family home listings in Miami-Dade were up 46% to 702. Condo/townhouse listings in Miami-Dade were up 5% to 793. Single-family home listings in Broward were up 27% to 349. Condo/townhouse listings in Broward were up 13% to 107. Single-family home listings in Palm Beach County were up 61% to 645. Condo/townhouse listings in Palm Beach County were up 42% to 162.”

“‘It tells me a lot of people have been waiting for this moment to take advantage of high prices and list,’ he said. ‘When you have more inventory than you have buyers, prices will come down some. But it won’t crash. I don’t consider it a bubble.'”

“But demand was already softening in South Florida before the rate hike. Florida Realtors data in April showed a dramatic drop in both single-family home and condo sales. ‘The next few months will probably be stressful for sellers who thought they could keep adding a percent or two to the price every month,’ Shuffield said.”

The San Tan News in Arizona. “Valley homeowners who are hoping to sell their house appear to be heading for rocky water, according to several reports last week. The Cromford Report, a leading analyst of housing market trends in the Maricopa and Pinal counties, said one of the biggest factors threatening to dethrone sellers from the catbird seat they‘ve enjoyed in negotiations for several years is a mix of rising supply and falling demand. The Cromford Report called May sales data ‘worrisome’ because of a 16% year-over-year decline in home sales in the Phoenix Metro market. ‘This leads me to conclude that the market is serious about this change of direction and the new trend is likely to continue for some considerable time,’ it said.”

“Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com cautioned would-be buyers who hope for a significant price correction: ‘Sellers have been putting homes on the market and asking for moonshot prices. In a neighborhood where homes were selling for $600,000 one year ago, a seller may now be asking $800,000. Sure, they may need to cut the price a bit and eventually sell for say, $725,000, but that is still much higher than the $600,000 it would’ve sold for one year ago.'”

From WTAJ in Pennsylvania. “Local realtors say the prices of homes on the could drop due to a dropping demand in homes. The decline comes after mortgage rates have increased to about 6%, nearly doubling the rate from last year. ‘It’s putting a real squeeze on housing affordability,’ said Adam Conrad, owner of Perry Wellington Realty in Hollidaysburg. ‘Buyers shouldn’t being coming in with lowball offers the first day or two a home is listed on the market,’ Conrad said. ‘You’re going to want to wait a couple of weeks before you start making those lower offers.'”

From Fox Business. “‘People who are looking to buy homes right now are still driven by the same factors,’ said  Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman. ‘Rents are up 15% year-on-year. They’re really feeling the squeeze…I just think we’re headed for a recession. ‘If you look at pending sales, they’re down about 8%, but demand is off about 15%…that’s a leading indicator that sales will continue their retreat because people’s stock portfolios have been wiped out.’ Kelman said he doesn’t expect the housing market to ‘crash.’ ‘There will be an uptick in foreclosures, but it will be off a very low number. We have seen no distress in the market whatsoever,’ he noted.”

From Fox 5 Atlanta. “A new report from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) revealed many homeowners are struggling to make their monthly mortgage payments after exiting COVID-19 hardship forbearances. Homeowners are struggling to transition back into restarting their monthly payments, the report showed. By the end of 2021, 330,000 borrowers’ mortgage loans were delinquent and no longer in forbearance. These homeowners had no loss mitigation in place.”

From Blog TO in Canada. “Though it seemed like it would never actually happen as Toronto housing prices continued to spike to unsustainable prices in recent months, the city’s market — along with the rest of the province’s and country’s at large — is finally cooling somewhat, especially when it comes to condos. After a peak in both sales activity and prices across the board in February, things have been gradually tapering, and prices for coveted condo units in the region have fallen an entire 10 per cent since then.”

“A glut of more listings are being met with less fervent demand, which is a trend the Canadian Real Estate Association says is nationwide for all housing types, led by cities in Ontario, as of May. As Strata experts say, condo buyers particularly in Canada’s biggest city now have more options among far more listings and thus are ‘enjoying a comfortable edge over sellers,’ putting the city officially into buyer’s market territory, although modestly. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) also shows some big shifts this past month, with a huge drop in volume of actual sales in the region and a small drop in the MLS Home Price Index Composite Benchmark — a decrease of more than $100,000 from February’s high. “

The Toronto Sun in Canada. “This past week was a funny one — everyone I met was either completely beside themselves at the state of the economy and/or real estate market, or appeared entirely oblivious to it all.To some, the real estate market is very much hurdling its way towards an epic 90s-level crash, while to others, we are simply in the midst of a blip, nothing more than a rebalancing of the market alongside a surge of inventory after two years of pandemic lunacy.”

“It honestly feels like I’m straddling parallel universes. On the one hand, you have exasperated real estate agents bemoaning the media circus churning out the fear mongering while encouraging their clients to take advantage and jump in while conditions are finally in their favour. Meanwhile, others are sharing horror stories from the trenches of clients ghosting them, deals falling through, and appraisals coming in short, all in the hopes of adding some radical transparency to this tumultuous time.”

“A house in midtown sold in multiple offers for over a million dollars above-asking last week, while one street over there are currently five great houses that would all have gone in a bunfight just months ago now languishing on the vine. As interest rates shoot up far higher and far faster than anyone could ever have anticipated, we have an entirely unprecedented growth in consumer debt servicing costs. There will be far too many people now upside down on their homes that will need to hunker down and ride this out for years and then there will be many who unfortunately simply cannot. Will the rest of us feel it? Hard to say.”

The Daily Mail. “A chief economist has admitted the Bank of England ‘underestimated’ inflation. The two million homeowners with variable rate mortgages and the 1.3 million borrowers with fixed deals due to end this year face significant hikes. Laura Suter, personal finance analyst at investment firm A J Bell, said: ‘Someone who locked into record low mortgage rates in recent years would face a real financial shock if they came to refinance that debt today.'”

From Domain News in Australia. “Winter is here, and it’s brought more than just a cracking cold snap – it’s brought a property market that couldn’t look more different from this time last year if it tried. Last year’s property zeitgeist of never-ending price rises has instead been replaced by rapid-fire interest rate rises (with more forecast to come), slowing or falling prices (depending on your postcode), and a general sense of trepidation.”

“Alex Jordan of McGrath Paddington says Brisbane is holding up better than Sydney and Melbourne but acknowledged the market had changed very quickly. ‘We’re in a new market,’ he says. ‘Buyers are quick to drop their offers and sellers are still hanging on to prices from six months ago. This transition market is the most difficult to sell in.'”

“In Melbourne, sellers have caught on to the changing market already, according to buyer’s advocate Mal James. ‘Yes, Melbourne sellers are meeting the market. The majority of the market has adjusted, but some sellers are choosing not to sell because they can’t get the price they want,’ he says. ‘People are saying the market is going to fall 10 per cent, but it’s already fallen 10 per cent here.'”

From Bloomberg. “As China’s property slump persists, one developer is trying to entice farmers to buy homes by accepting their crops as payment. Central China Real Estate Ltd. is offering to pay farmers as much as 160,000 yuan ($24,000) for their wheat to offset down payments for homes in its River Mansion residential project in Shangqiu, a city in Henan province, according to a Monday marketing post. Weeks ago, it offered to accept garlic from growers looking to buy homes in another project in Kaifeng city.”

“The move reflects how far some developers are willing to go to attract wary homebuyers as the economy slows and the industry endures a crippling cash crunch. Central China, the country’s 37th-largest builder, recently sought state support when its parent company agreed to sell a stake to the provincial government.”

From The Hill. “It would be an understatement to say that the Federal Reserve has a poor forecasting record. Last year, the Fed’s underestimation of the inflation risk led it to maintain an excessively expansive monetary policy stance. Not only did that stance result in an inflationary surge. It also led to the creation of an equity, housing and credit market bubble. One reason to think that the Fed’s shift to a more hawkish monetary policy stance could bring on a recession is that it has already caused the asset and credit market bubbles it created last year to burst. Since the start of the year, equity prices have fallen by around 25 percent, bond prices have declined by more than 20 percent and the cryptocurrency market has lost around 70 percent of its value.“

“These declines have resulted in a cumulative loss in household financial market wealth of some $15 trillion, or 70 percent of GDP. Using the Fed rule of thumb that for every $1 loss in wealth, households reduce spending by 4 cents, the decline in asset prices to date could result in consumers cutting back spending by 3 percentage points of GDP. All of this suggests that history will not judge the Powell Fed kindly. First it gave us multi-decade-high inflation by being asleep at the wheel when the country was receiving its largest peacetime budget stimulus on record. Now it is very likely sending the economy into a hard landing by slamming on the monetary policy brakes too hard when the economy is slowing and the financial markets are reeling.”

The Canadian Press. “Cryptocurrencies are in free fall. One of the world’s largest crypto exchanges is cutting nearly a fifth of its work force. And a major crypto lender is halting all withdrawals and transactions for its customers, citing ‘extreme market conditions.’ Now, crypto-industry leaders are bracing for the next shoe to drop. Andreas Park, a finance professor who co-founded the University of Toronto’s blockchain research lab, said only time will tell whether regulated players in crypto are any different than others. ‘But what we can certainly say is that the whole idea of ‘my token is better than yours, and let’s invest in a new token so we can make easy money’ is going out the window almost entirely,’ he said. ‘And maybe that’s the lesson we’re all learning from this downturn.'”

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This Post Has 126 Comments

  1. From the video above:

    Charleston home builders WORRIED about shifting market

    Jun 19, 2022 With the rapid shift in the market, buyers aren’t flocking to Charleston SC home builders like just a few months ago. More and more are offering insane incentives and shifting their strategy to sell their inventory. This is a great benefit to the buyer.

    10 minutes.

      1. That has been the strategy of the ultra rich for over 100 years.
        Own nothing. Control everything.
        Trusts. Yeah baby. Own nothing. Control everything. Put every last asset in a trust except physical. Yeah baby. That’s the plan.

  2. ‘it offered to accept garlic from growers looking to buy homes in another project in Kaifeng city’

    Goldfish, garlic, what’s next fer these crazy Chinese developers?

    1. The central bankers of the world engaged in a money printing orgy, unlike anything ever seen before. It washed over every single nook and cranny of the planet, pumping up the prices of everything. A garlic bubble, for crying out loud.

  3. ‘Buyers shouldn’t being coming in with lowball offers the first day or two a home is listed on the market…You’re going to want to wait a couple of weeks before you start making those lower offers’

    That’s the spirit! Let em stew in their crater.

  4. ‘My husband is a real estate agent. Last week, the realty firm where he works had five sets of homebuyers cancel their home sales. My husband’s homebuyers canceled first. It’s infuriating. He worked on behalf of his homebuyers for over a year. Today, I learned all the homebuyers ‘are walking away’ from their earnest money deposit’

    This was written by a UHS in Sunnyvale. I don’t know where exactly this is aimed at.

    1. “It’s infuriating.”

      Boo hoo hoo🤣

      Lady….. the reality is your husband is a skill-less liar.

    3. He worked on behalf of his homebuyers for over a year

      Being that he’s a “real estate professional” he should have seen this coming months ago.

      Today, I learned all the homebuyers ‘are walking away’ from their earnest money deposit’

      Does she think those decisions were made capriciously? Walking away from a deposit has to hurt, so there must have been a very good reason to do it.

      1. meh, most home sellers and most realtors don’t demand enough as an earnest money deposit. 5 grand or less sometimes. That’s a BS offer, they got nothing on the table they can walk away with minimal pain. Sellers should negotiate a decent amount of earnest money esp if the offer is odd or weak. Shows some backbone and risk on the buyer’s part. Makes a much stronger offer. But everyone seems to have forgotten this. Generally you are still going to get the earnest money back (fails inspection, something unless you stupidly wrote those parts out of the contract). But it still shows as a stronger offer. One of the videos Ben Jones posted yesterday said the iBuyers (redfin, etc) usually used 1,000 to 3,000 dollar deposits (on arizona homes, so figure 500k plus houses) so they can always just walk away. That’s a weak offer and the sellers (and UHS) should realize it. but nooooooooooooo.

        1. When I sold my home in NY in 2004 I got 10% down, $55K. The owner tried playing price dinking at the closing. My lawyer said we would be pleased if they walked away and left their deposit! 🙂

          Closed as sold.

        2. Very rarely does a buyer lose the earnest money to a seller in a real estate contract. There’s a lot of ways out for a buyer – mortgage contingency, inspection contingency, HOA or condo contingency, attorney review. A contact falling through is just a risk of selling. Buyers fall out all the time.

    4. “It’s infuriating. He worked on behalf of his homebuyers for over a year. Today, I learned all the homebuyers ‘are walking away”

      Only need to listen to the first 0:06 of the link below for a description of what happened to the Realtor.

      https://youtu.be/p13yZAjhU0M

  5. “Q: My husband is a real estate agent.

    My condolences. Better a wife that’s a prostitute than a husband who’s a UHS.

  6. ‘On the one hand, you have exasperated real estate agents bemoaning the media circus churning out the fear mongering while encouraging their clients to take advantage and jump in while conditions are finally in their favour. Meanwhile, others are sharing horror stories from the trenches of clients ghosting them, deals falling through, and appraisals coming in short’

    I have noticed an increasing amount of whining from the UHS. Did they complain when the media shouted their red hotness to the sky?

    You can’t have shack prices fall 20-30% in three months without horror story’s. There is lots of buyers remorse and lawsuits beginning. What’s not mentioned is a parabolic blow-off top followed by a yuuge crash is a classic bubble pop indicator.

  7. My husband’s homebuyers canceled first. It’s infuriating. He worked on behalf of his homebuyers for over a year.

    Those “homebuyers” (not so much) dodged a bullet and the financial snare your husband was laying for them. Luring marks into their financial Waterloo is not the same as “working for them.”

    1. Luring marks into their financial Waterloo is not the same as “working for them.”

      Probably from her perspective he “worked hard to help them win a bid on a shack.” and now feels that they “betrayed him”. I suspect that they were not married yet during the previous crash, so she probably believes that red hot was the norm.

      I hope she has a decent job, because hubby won’t be bringing any bacon home for a while.

      1. **”I hope she has a decent job, because hubby won’t be bringing any bacon home for a while.”

        tried to tip her on OnlyFans last night, but lost cell service in my van down by the river before the Submit Payment button appeared.

    2. realtors are never “working for you” as either the buyer or the seller.

      They have no fiduciary duty to do so. They are working for the deal and the deal alone. If you recognize this that’s fine, but half of realtor’s education is about trying to show the buyer/seller that they are really working for them. They pinky swear it. And most people don’t buy or sell often enough and are too normie to realize it.

      2. You discover this is true as soon as something goes sideways. Let’s say for example the buyer walks out at the day of closing for spurious reasons and wants the deposit. The first thing out of the UHS person’s mouth is “I’m not lawyer”.

        Remember that they provide ‘expertise’ in the contract negotiation and preparation.

        I’m fine with hiring a UHS that markets and sells a house for you should you be unwilling to take the time and know the tradeoffs vs paying for an MLS add and perhaps 2% to 3% for the buyer’s agent should they have one but still I really don’t see what the value add is these days with Zillow or some other type of fsbo service to line up showings with sellers…

        I had weasel buyers walk out on the day of closing and then claim the deposit. After 6 months back and forth I ended up shelling out money for the scumbag lawyers that I hired and the buyer’s lawyer. In hindsight I should have fought it. I will say that if your lawyer and the person on the opposite side of the dispute are of the same religion and ethnicity and you are not, you might be f’kd. Something to consider in S FL or NY.

  9. Conversely, your husband, a real estate agent, can only be paid by his agency. Lest we forget, he chose commission-only sales. No sale, no paycheck.”

    Should’ve chosen an honest profession. As the market turns, starving realtors will have no patience with greedhead sellers and unrealistic wish prices.

  10. ‘When you have more inventory than you have buyers, prices will come down some. But it won’t crash. I don’t consider it a bubble.’”

    Whistling past the graveyard changes nothing, Ron. The crater is accelerating.

    1. It’s hilarious, it’s like an encore of what they were saying in 2008: not a crash, soft landing, market has cooled but all is fine.

      They are claiming that this time it’s different as there was not subprime, which is not true as almost no first time buyers put 20% down, though many used low to zero down financing like FHA, VA and USDA. Those will be the first to bail after prices crash, which will spook the herd and start a stampede to the exits.

        1. 2000 and 2008 were the same way. I imagine the 80’s were also the same way. (I was too young). And that’s why housing prices are sticky. People can’t accept that the market moved away from them.

        1. How is the Fed going to shrink its balance sheet when the MBS market is going no bid?

          Presumably it can just let the loans mature/roll off and not buy more?

  11. ‘Buyers shouldn’t being coming in with lowball offers the first day or two a home is listed on the market,’ Conrad said. ‘You’re going to want to wait a couple of weeks before you start making those lower offers.’”

    The smart money is sitting out the madness, waiting for true price discovery to lay waste to the Fed’s Everything Bubble.

      1. ** ““Lately, Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather has been using the term ‘hibernation’ to describe this changing housing market.”

        “hibernation” ? well, THAT’S a new one. HA!

        also, I never knew that Daryl Fairweather was a female. usually Daryl is masculine, like Crossbow Daryl, Daryl Hall, Larry & brothers Darryl and Daryyl, etc.

        must update list so far of only Daryl Hannah, that I know of.

        (egads! ending my sentence with a preposition. hasty pudding will disown me)

        1. Here’s a strange one. I worked with a woman named Darryl. Her husband’s name? Darryl.

      1. I suspect that the Lithuanians didn’t want to do this, but were pressured by globohomo.

  13. I did a little deeper dive on some of the longer-term listings in my area that have been slowing reducing their price. Turns out they are Opendoor flips, bought this year. Now I can see why the reductions were slow, they hesitated to sell at a loss….now they will be burned 5-15% on them.

    Hope they make it up in volume.

  14. No matter what folks say about a home not a house and its a fore-ever place to live. For most (including much of the upper middle class), it is about the monthly payment plan – just like a car. It is not even 2022H2 and interest rates are 6% – will it get to 7.5% by Dec?

    Local realtors say the prices of homes on the could drop due to a dropping demand in homes. The decline comes after mortgage rates have increased to about 6%, nearly doubling the rate from last year. ‘It’s putting a real squeeze on housing affordability,’

    1. Lennar was bitching about the almost doubling of interest rates in their statement.

      Lennar (LEN) – The home builder reported an adjusted quarterly profit of $4.69 per share, beating the $3.96 consensus estimate, with revenue that also topped forecasts. However, the company said it began to see the impact of higher interest rates and rapidly appreciating home prices toward the end of the quarter.

    2. It is not even 2022H2 and interest rates are 6% – will it get to 7.5% by Dec?

      Possibly higher, unless the Fed agrees to buy all bonds at a low interest rate. At this point anything could happen, as the people in charge are, to put it bluntly, irresponsible if not outright insane.

      1. “…as the people in charge are, to put it bluntly, irresponsible if not outright insane….”

        If not blatantly criminal.

        Last time I looked, the Fed has a mandate and responsibility to the public good.

        HBB word of the day
        Cashtration (n.): The act of buying a house, which renders the subject financially impotent for an indefinite period of time.

    3. With more 75 basis point rate hikes in cue, I’d say 8%+ is a given by the end of the year.

  15. Color yer money gone, “investors.” Especially the offshore gringos.

    Evergrande: defaulted developer gets delisting reminder as restructuring, probe on US$2 billion deposits leave investors in the dark

    https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3182513/evergrande-defaulted-developer-gets-delisting-reminder-restructuring-probe

    China Evergrande, which defaulted on its dollar-denominated bonds in December, is getting an early stock delisting warning as the developer struggled to publish its audited accounts and report on a US$2 billion enforcement action by lenders.

    The Hong Kong stock exchange on Tuesday issued a “resumption guidance” for the Shenzhen-based home builder to comply with its listing rules, according to a filing, as the stock remained suspended from trading since March 21.

  16. The German sheeple elected a globalist Quisling government. Now they’re getting what they voted for, good & hard.

    The Federal Republic of New Normal Germany

    https://www.theburningplatform.com/2022/06/21/the-federal-republic-of-new-normal-germany/

    So, the government of New Normal Germany is contemplating forcing everyone to wear medical-looking masks in public from October to Easter on a permanent basis. Seriously, the fanatical New Normal fascists currently in charge of Germany’s government — mostly the SPD and the Greens — are discussing revising the “Infection Protection Act” in order to grant themselves the authority to continue to rule the country by decree, as they have been doing since the Autumn of 2020, thus instituting a “permanent state of emergency” that overrides the German constitution, indefinitely.

    Go ahead, read that paragraph again. Take a break from the carnage in non-Nazi Ukraine, the show trials in the US congress, monkeypoxmania, Sudden Adult Death Syndrome, Sudden Bovine Death Syndrome, family-oriented drag queens, non-“vaccine”-related facial paralysis, and Biden falling off his bike, and reflect on what this possibly portends, the dominant country of the European Union dispensing with any semblance of democracy and transforming into a fascist biosecurity police state.

    1. The stock market sell-off could be just getting started
      By David Goldman, CNN Business
      Published 6:52 AM EDT, Tue June 21, 2022

      New York CNN Business —

      If you’re nervous about the stock market, you’ve got good reason to be: Central banks around the globe are losing the battle against inflation, and their response could plunge the global economy into a recession.

      Step back: Last week, the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point — its biggest rate rise since 1994. The Bank of England increased its target rate, too, for the fifth time since December. And the Swiss central bank raised rates for the first time in 15 years.

      They’re hardly done. The BOE conceded that inflation would spike near 11% in the fall, and the Fed just increased its inflation expectations for 2022 by a full percentage point. Although Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week there’s still a chance the US economy could avoid recession, he conceded that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the ongoing pandemic and the supply chain and energy crunches “have raised the degree of difficulty and created great challenges … so we just don’t know.”

      By pulling back stimulus and putting the monetary policy engine into full reverse, the Fed and other central banks have rattled investors. The US stock market has entered a bear market, and last week was Wall Street’s worst since March 2020: The S&P 500 tumbled nearly 6%, and the Dow plummeted 1,504 points, or about 5%.

      US stocks have fallen 23% since hitting a record high January 3. Yet they could have plenty more room to fall — particularly if the efforts to gain control of runaway prices send the economy into a downturn.
      …
      https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/21/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

        1. Democracy Dies in Darkness
          Business
          Why This Bear Market Is Bad for Stocks and Bonds
          Analysis by Richard Cookson | Bloomberg
          June 21, 2022 at 11:20 a.m. EDT

          A global bear market in financial assets has been raging for months and shows few signs of abating. The MSCI global stock index has lost about 22% from its high last autumn. Emerging-market stocks have lost about 30% since their high early last year. But most striking is how badly other assets have done at the same time, notably government and corporate bonds. Indexes of seven-to-10-year US Treasuries and investment-grade corporate debt have lost about 10% and 13% respectively this year. That’s still much better than the lamentable performance of their European counterparts. Yet it is highly unusual for both fixed income and equities to perform so badly at the same time. Since the late 1990s, stocks and bonds have been negatively correlated: If stocks tumbled, bonds tended to go up.

          What happened?

          In February 2021, I wrote that the Federal Reserve had created the biggest financial bubble in history because it encompassed everything. Growing inflationary pressures, I argued, would pop that bubble as the Fed and other central banks would be forced to act. What I should have also pointed out was that the overall valuation of most traditional securities portfolios, which contain a selection of bonds and equities, was without a doubt far and away the highest it had been in history. Those valuations were driven ever higher by central banks’ reaction to the previous two decades of disinflation and their extraordinary and ill-timed reaction to the Covid pandemic.
          …
          https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/why-this-bear-market-is-bad-for-stocks-and-bonds/2022/06/21/1b6cb4f0-f152-11ec-ac16-8fbf7194cd78_story.html

      2. That’s unpossible! Brandon told reporters on the beach that things are great and there won’t be a recession.

        1. Was that before or after his granddaughters dragged him away as they shouted” no more questions”?

    1. Minus 11%, 15%, 27%
      Hah! Not even a start.
      I am waiting for 100-250% drops after thus mad hyperinflation high triple digit % rise for years now

  19. Existing-Home Sales Fell 3.4% in May; Median Sales Price Surpasses $400,000 for the First Time
    June 21, 2022
    Media Contact:
    Troy Green 202-383-1042
    Key Highlights
    – Existing-home sales declined for the fourth straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million. Sales were down 3.4% from April and 8.6% from one year ago.
    – At $407,600, the median existing-home sales price exceeded $400,000 for the first time and represents a 14.8% increase from one year ago.
    – Inventory of unsold existing homes rose to 1.16 million by the end of May, or the equivalent of 2.6 months at the current monthly sales pace.
    …
    https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-fell-3-4-in-may-median-sales-price-surpasses-400000-for-the-first-time

    2. At $407,600, the median existing-home sales price exceeded $400,000 for the first time and represents a 14.8% increase from one year ago.

      We’re in some weird blow-off top in real estate. The median is spiking before free-falling.

  20. EXCLUSIVE: Police Report Proves Plainclothes Electronic Surveillance Unit Members Were Embedded Among Jan. 6 Protesters

    Embedded ESU members wore a specific ‘bracelet on their left wrist identifying them as MPD personnel’

    ‘On a Dec. 7, 2021, episode of Tucker Carlson Tonight, the attorney for several Jan. 6 prisoners, Joseph McBride, identified a man tagged on the internet by so-called “Sedition Hunters” as “Red-Faced 45.” The man, dressed in red from head to toe—with even his face painted red—appears in a video engaging in continuous dialogue with uniformed personnel and others whom McBride insists are agents embedded in the crowd. McBride said the man is “clearly a law enforcement officer.”

    “He passes out weapons, sledgehammers, poles, mace. Some of those things come in contact with some of the other protesters who have subsequently been charged with possessing dangerous weapons and are using dangerous weapons at the Capitol. That is clearly entrapment. That is clearly the government creating conditions of dangerousness and entrapping members of the crowd to possess weapons and possibly use them for reasons that we cannot comprehend.”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/exclusive-police-report-proves-plainclothes-electronic-surveillance-unit-members-were-embedded-among-jan-6-protesters_4527036.html

  21. Burien, WA Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY As Seattle and Vancouver BC Housing Market Turns Toxic On Soaring Mortgage Defaults

    https://www.movoto.com/wa/98148/market-trends/

    As one Seattle broker explained, “Even after slashing prices by 30% I still can’t sell a house. And we have thousands for sale.”

  22. Cryptocurrency
    Published 2 hours ago
    Americans say cryptocurrency crash not a cause for concern
    Americans investors in Las Vegas bet on crypto free fall to be short term
    By Teny Sahakian , Matt Leach FOXBusiness
    People in Nevada speak to Fox News about fate of cryptocurrency video

    People in Nevada speak to Fox News about fate of cryptocurrency

    Investors in Las Vegas told Fox News they’re not ready to cash out of cryptocurrencies despite plummeting values.

    “Time in the market beats timing the market,” Alex, visiting Las Vegas from Memphis, said. “I love it, personally. It’s kind of my thing.”

    “I do that … as an investor and as a professional hobby as well,” he added.

    Bitcoin has fallen 70% in value since a high of more than $67,000 in 2021. Alex said instability is not exclusive to digital currency.
    …
    https://www.foxbusiness.com/financials/americans-say-cryptocurrency-crash-not-cause-concern

    1. The excessive irrational exuberance of degenerate Los Vegas gamblers leads me to believe that cryptocurrency has a lot more CR8R ahead before a stable bottom is reached.

    2. Americans say cryptocurrency crash not a cause for concern

      Other than what I read here, BTC is simply not on my radar. It was also here that I learned that some people pay good money for a bitmap/jpeg simply because it contains a crypto token.

  23. Eric’s Neighborhood Watch – June 20, 2022 – Mira Mesa

    Jun 20, 2022 Market time is jumping up fast in Mira Mesa (92126)!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzjYEJi26WQ

    15 minutes. “Too many listings now.”

    One thing that is different than last decade: the fan is being hit everywhere at the same time.

    1. One thing that is different than last decade: the fan is being hit everywhere at the same time.

      Skyrocketing mortgage interest rates will do that.

        1. We moved to Rancho Penasquitos to stay away from Mira Mesa way back when. Once a dump, always a dump.

  25. It Happened: 75 Points Increase – Here’s the Market Reaction

    Jun 20, 2022

    This channel is about selling, buying houses in Silicon Valley, living in SF Bay Area & moving in, moving out of Mountain view, moving up in Sunnyvale or downsizing in Milpitas, investing in Bay Area, etc.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdnyQcp9tP8

    12 minutes. At 6:45 on to 9 minutes says price reductions, under asking offers, buyers denial. 10:45 – new shack buyers not qualifying upon completion.

  26. Housing Market Update for Orange County: Real Estate Market Slowing Down But Still a Seller’s Market

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6aH9qofz88

    The Orange County Housing Market has slowed down significantly since March. This is largely the result of much higher mortgage rates. Mortgage rates recently jumped about 0.5% due to the unexpectedly high CPI numbers that were recently released. This caused the Federal Reserve to do a 0.75% rate hike on the Federal Funds Rate.

    Despite the slowdown, we are still in a HOT seller’s market. Homes that are priced correctly and marketed property are still selling very quickly, with multiple offers, and in some cases above the asking price. Meanwhile, overpriced homes are starting to sit on the market longer, and in some cases require a price reduction in order to sell.

    Higher mortgage rates have had a negative impact on buyer demand. Demand is much lower in 2022 compared to 2021. This has allowed the supply of homes for sale to grow at a much faster pace. If this continues, there will be a lot more homes for sale at the end of the year compared to the start. This means the longer home sellers decide to wait to list their home, the more competition they will have when they put it on the market. It will be increasingly important to price the home correctly from the start and work with a real estate brokerage that will provide the best marketing.

    7:35. At 45 seconds “requiring large price reductions to sell…Inventory at 4:30. DOM 45.

  27. What happened in May? Denver Housing Market Update 2022

    Jun 20, 2022

    The market is shifting and the numbers are in to prove it! In May 2022 we saw increased inventory and an increase in days on market, but also a slight decrease in home sale prices. We are no longer in the peak of the seller’s market. Is it a buyer’s market? A balanced market?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gudCaB0Ai1w

    3:20.

      1. That’s a buzz word, probably handed down from the evil witch in the tower. Here’s a question for UHS making these videos: why don’t you expect shack prices to resume the skyrocket any day now? Cuz they know that’s not how it works in real estate. Especially with interest rates going up more than any time in 40 years in just a few months.

        Let’s dispel something else I see over and over: prices are still rising! That always happens for a time. Rich people can still get loans, poor people can’t. Median goes up.

        1. “Let’s dispel something else I see over and over: prices are still rising! That always happens for a time. Rich people can still get loans, poor people can’t. Median goes up.”

          Precisely…. and that’s all it is.

  29. Interest Rates are UP & Demand is DOWN – Do Experts Think the Housing Market Will Crash?

    Jun 20, 2022 Here are some quick facts we’re discussing right now regarding the Boise Real Estate Market and Ada County: – Inventory is UP – Demand is DOWN – Is it a good idea to RENT or OWN housing right now?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JnlkiRvBVk

    13 minutes.

      2. We had an “all hands” meeting today on zoom. The usual boring drivel. At the end we were told that we all can continue working from home.

  30. June 14, 2022

    ‘While officials have said they’d like QT to run in the background, that’s always been unlikely. And signs of trouble emerged last Friday, after the CPI report. When the latest inflation data changed the bond market’s view of the Fed’s trajectory, “the weakest sector broke,” says Lou Barnes, senior loan officer at Cherry Creek Mortgage. In bond jargon, he says, “MBS went ‘no-bid,’ ” which is to say at one point Friday there were no buyers for mortgage-backed securities.’

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-inflation-interest-rates-recession-51655221881

    1. In bond jargon, he says, “MBS went ‘no-bid,’ ” which is to say at one point Friday there were no buyers for mortgage-backed securities.’

      So unless the Fed changes course and buys all those unloved MBS, mortgage rates will continue to climb. Think 6% is a lot? Wait until buyers get quoted 10 or 12%.

      #FJB and the bicycle he fell off.

      1. I am a little confused about that – why wouldnt someone put in a bid at a 10% or even 20% haircut?

        1. Cuz they are going to who knows. Those MBS’s are designed to be opaque and no one has any idea what’s in them or what’s going to get paid back (or not) and no one can fairly value them. (See (or read) The Big Short). It’s the same BS today, it’s all rated perfectly fine but really it’s just junk. It’s all a scam and the big companies know it. They want 50% or more off and they cant’ offer that yet. It has to sit awhile (just like a house) to lowball it. And once the first one sets the price, now everyone has to mark to market and bam, it all blows up. And when those blow up, it’s taking multiple banks with them even with the feds owning tons of them.

          We’re in the capital preservation stage now. And people would rather buy treasuries that at least they know (hahahaha they are getting their money back. Same reason high yield (aka junk) is going to the moon. Those companies are going under.

  31. Warning! The Housing Market has Shifted , Worried? | Park City Real Estate
    Jun 21, 2022 Oh Shift!! What is going on with the Utah Housing Market and should you be worried? What is ONE* thing that we learned from the Covid 19 Pandemic. “HOW FAST THINGS CAN CHANGE” What do you need to know if your a buyer? What do you need to know as a seller as it pertains to my specific market.

    Chapters:
    0:00 The biggest problem with selling your house today
    0:57 I serve the Park City Area
    1:07 Why is the Market Cooling?
    3:54 Increase in Inventory
    3:10 Worried about the economy
    3:54 Is it still a good time to sell?
    6:37 is it still a good time to buy?
    7:59 Should you trust your Zestimate?
    10:28 Park City Housing Market Update

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgWU8H9vJ7k

    26 minutes. “interest rates used to be 16%. I don’t think I was born yet.” At 13:30 she gets into stats. Price reductions – 83. At 21 minutes – condotels! I didn’t know prices were so high out there. Jeremy Ranch: 22:45 “Something crazy’s happening over there!”

    2. interest rates used to be 16%. I don’t think I was born yet.

      Early 1980’s. I recall mortgage rates were 11% in 1988.

  32. Crap on a stick. Did you see the following from Larry Summers? What happens to peak housing prices if the interest rates go up and unemployment increases for a prolonged time?


    Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said unemployment in the U.S. would need to rise significantly for an extended period of time if it has any chance of curbing the inflation that is wreaking havoc on global markets.

    “We need five years of unemployment above 5% to contain inflation—in other words, we need two years of 7.5% unemployment or five years of 6% unemployment or one year of 10% unemployment,” Summers said in a speech in London on Monday, Bloomberg reported.

    “There are numbers that are remarkably discouraging relative to the Fed Reserve view,” he added.
    ———————-
    “The U.S. may need as severe monetary tightening as Paul Volcker pushed through in the late 1970s, early 1980s,” Summers said.

    Summers suggested that the Fed should be cautious over how much it communicates with the public about how it plans to proceed with monetary policy tightening.

    “The return to humility, the abandonment of forward guidance as a policy tool, is entirely appropriate,” Summers said. “It is likely to be necessary to make much more difficult choices than yet contemplated between acceptance of slack and acceptance of sustained, above-target inflation.”

    “In that way, I fear we are going to have both elements of secular stagnation and secular stagflation,” he said.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-years-6-unemployment-1-114324347.html

    1. They should get it started by laying off 10% of the Fed. That would make a good first round.

    2. “The U.S. may need as severe monetary tightening as Paul Volcker pushed through in the late 1970s, early 1980s,” Summers said.

      It didn’t take long to get from “what inflation?” to “inflation is terrible!”

    1. I’m wondering how long until they start beating the “get your boosters before it’s too late!” Drum.

      A coworker has lived in utter fear of Covid for the past two years. He finally got it and it was a nothing burger.

      1. My most fearful friend is now quarantining because her eldest daughter has COVID.

  36. This happened about 12:45 today.

    I was stopped behind a car at a red light, I was waiting to make a right turn but the car in front of me was going straight so I had to wait for the light to turn green so they could go. When the light turned green they started to go straight, a Lexus suv coming the other way from the same light completely ignoring the rules of the road stomps on it making a left turn cuts right in front of them, would have hit them if the car in front of me had not jumped on the brakes, it was close to a bad accident. All I could do was stop my right turn, look at the Lexus, shake and say what an a-hole.

    Well 2 lights down nearing I-95 I ended up behind that Lexus. The fancy writing on the back hatch window said….

    Blah blah blah Realty
    Your local expert Realtors

    Realtors are not only Liars they are a menace on the road.

    1. Realtors are not only Liars they are a menace on the road.

      Someone hasn’t earned a commission for a while!

  37. Justin Gray
    @JustinGrayWSB
    ·
    Follow
    I’ve obtained by FOIA surveillance video of the brutal beating of elderly Vietnam vet by a VA employee at an Atlanta VA clinic. @2Investigates was 1st to report on the attack last month. The attacker, Lawrence Gaillard is still employed by VA. @wsbtv at 6
    https://wsbtv.com/news/local/atlanta/disturbing-video-shows-atlanta-va-employee-attack-elderly-vietnam-veteran/K22NTEQYDRCMHM6KBNRNZRUSCE/

    https://twitter.com/JustinGrayWSB/status/1538987528543514624?s=20&t=xRPxv8xhjmsjRm-WCkZZLw

    1. The Financial Times
      Cryptocurrencies
      Crypto exchange FTX bails out lending platform BlockFi
      The move prompts comparisons between chief executive Sam Bankman-Fried and a crypto central bank
      Montage of Sam Bankman-Fried with company logo
      Sam Bankman-Fried has extended a $250mn loan to BlockFi
      Scott Chipolina and Joshua Oliver in London 4 hours ago

      Sam Bankman-Fried has bolstered the stumbling $900bn crypto industry with his second bailout of a struggling digital assets firm in as many weeks.

      The 30-year-old chief executive of crypto trading platform FTX has extended a $250mn loan to BlockFi, he announced on Tuesday. Just last week, he also helped crypto broker Voyager Digital to pull back from the brink with a loan that totalled about $485mn in cash and bitcoins.

      The moves come as the crypto industry tries to restore confidence during a period of accelerating pressure on the price of digital assets such as bitcoin, which has pushed even some of the biggest market participants in the industry into distress.

      One of the key principles of cryptocurrencies is their independence from authorities such as central banks. But billionaire Bankman-Fried is building a pivotal role akin to the authorities that rescued banks in the 2008 financial crisis.

      “Sam became a lender of last resort,” said Anatoly Crachilov, chief executive of London fund manager Nickel Digital Asset Management.

      “If you have a few Lehman events at the same time, concentrated, then it could impose crypto winter for a very extended period of time. FTX has the balance sheet to support these businesses, and it’s in their long-term vested interest to see this ecosystem survive.”
      …

  40. What’s going on in the Florida New Home Market? | Sarasota and Manatee County

    Jun 20, 2022 What’s going on in the Florida New Home Market? We’re sharing the latest panel discussion we attended at the Manatee-Sarasota Building Industry Association Summit.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5URdAonig4

    19:41. At 4:45 regarding rates: “they used a word…they were false…it was a manufactured rate pushed down by the fed…and they’re trying to do it again by raising the rates.”

  42. Housing market down from last year’s high, staring at ‘perfect storm’
    The Washington Glen development off of Yankee St. in Washington Twp. have multiple houses under construction at one time. JIM NOELKER/STAFF
    By Eric Schwartzberg
    15 hours ago

    The housing market, both locally and nationally, isn’t showing any signs of clearing up.

    Interest rates have been climbing consistently for the last few months, and the cost of housing construction has gone up 19 percent for building materials alone over the course of the last year, according to Eric Farrell, CEO of the Home Builders Association of Dayton.

    Add to that a labor shortage, transportation costs and energy costs, and what you end up with is the housing market “staring into the face of a perfect storm,” Farrell told this news outlet Monday.

    “Builders don’t know how much it’s going to cost to build a home, so they can’t build it on spec,” he said. “As a nation, the construction sector also has a breakdown in the supply chain (so) that everything from lumber to steel to appliances, our builders just don’t know when they’re going to get those materials, and they don’t know how much those materials are going to cost when they get them.”

    That’s created an environment where home builders are becoming increasingly cautious in the ramp up in production, as evidenced by recently released HBA of Dayton permit data, which shows that 236 single-family permits were issued in April 2022, compared to 365 in 2021, representing a 35.3% decrease. Over the last five years, this total represents the second-lowest April reading in HBA Dayton permit reporting.
    …

  44. I was renting in Boise in 2021, contracted to have a house built, got to pick out everything! Contacted for $320,000 got built in nine months with a 2.9% mortgage. And then the prices blow up here. I’m not moving. My mortgage is $300 less than I was paying for rent on a 70s special that nothing was done on it.

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