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You Must Not Follow The Crowd In Doing Wrong

A weekend topic starting with Newsweek. “The rising cost of buying a house in America has been further emphasized by an unearthed advert from the 1950s showing the comparatively low prices of property in that period. Captioned: ‘They really had it easy back then,’ the newspaper advert featured in the tweet centers around a development at Westwood Lake, Southwest Miami, Florida, where, according to the copy, ‘more than 600 homes’ were ‘built and sold’ in the space of seven months.”

“The advert, created by real estate and land investment firm The Mackle Company, goes on to list two-bedroom properties at $7,450 or for monthly payments of $47.92. Three-bedroom properties, meanwhile, are priced at $7,900 or $49.74.Using the online US Inflation Calculator tool, it’s estimated that, when adjusted for inflation, the $7,900 three-bedroom property in Miami would have cost $85,841.58 in today’s money.”

“Elsewhere _nineteen91 wrote: ‘The average salary in Miami in 1955 was $3,400 and NEW homes could be bought for under 8k. Now the average salary is around 65K and USED homes like this cost over 500k which need extensive repairs. If you can’t see what’s wrong with this picture then you are part of the problem.”

The Aspen Times in Colorado. “Housing construction in 1892 was evident in every neighborhood. A Times reporter walked the streets and inventoried newly built or under construction homes. Converting figures to today’s dollars shows that the cost was in no way comparable. As an example, in 1894-95 a common price was $1,000 to $1,100 ( $28,500 to $32,300 today’s dollars). For that price you could buy a four-room house with electric lights. For a little more you could get a house with plastering, high ceilings and maybe a cellar. One at that price advertised ‘a white coat finish as white as the day it was built.’ Lower priced houses had fewer rooms and amenities and sold for as low as $5,700 in today’s dollars.”

“J.C. Connor was a major agent and he told a reporter of what appeared to be a major high-price sale, one for $3,000 ($81,000 in today’s dollars). What was also different then was that those agents also made or arranged the loans. It also appears that the usual down payment required was 50%. Denver had a similar population boom during those years, but as one Aspen real estate agent-mining stock seller commented, ‘Buying lots in Denver is not a good investment as there are streets that extend miles with lots for sale.'”

The Colorado Sun. “As average 30-year fixed mortgage rates continue to hover around 6%, there’s an expectation that prices of homes for sale will fall. It’s only been 10 days since the Fed increased interest rates so it’s too soon to see the impact. Or is it? On Monday, the average list price for a house for sale in Denver was $742,773. Three days later it dropped 2.9% to $721,517, according to multiple listing data provided by Open Door. Meanwhile, during the same three days, the median closing price fell $26,000, or 4%, to $619,000.”

“Things are moving so quickly, said Nicole Bachaud, a senior economist at housing site Zillow. ‘We had this huge acceleration, this huge boost in spring of 2020 that continued into 2021 that was the strongest year for housing that we’ve really ever seen,’ Bachaud said. ‘Now we’re coming to this period where things are going to cool down really fast as well. And that’s going to look like whiplash for a lot of buyers and sellers in the market.'”

“Zillow data for the Colorado Springs, Denver and Fort Collins markets do show that there’s been a sharp increase in the number of houses that cut the list price within the past month. The chart below shows that in early June, 9.17% of the homes for sale in Denver dropped their price in the past month, while 9.1% did in Colorado Springs and 3.37% did in Fort Collins.”

“Those price discounts in Denver rose to a median of $19,000 in early June, nearly double the amount in January. Colorado Springs price cuts weren’t as sharp and had dropped to $11,050 in early June, while Fort Collins hit $19,201.”

The San Diego Jewish World in California. “The San Diego real estate scene has yet again taken residents by surprise.  In January 2020, the median sale price was $600,000.  A year later in January 2021, that rose to $650,000.  In January 2022, the price rose yet again to just under $800,000 and leveled out just under $900,000 in April 2022.  Going into Summer 2022, prices have started to plateau and even drop.  Whereas rapid fire home sales would involve bidding wars tens of thousands of dollars over asking with prospective buyers more than happy to waive contingencies such as appraisals / inspections, it appears those days are over.  More and more homes are sitting longer on the market with price cuts.   A recent search on Redfin shows there are 350+ homes in the San Diego area that have been on the market more than 2 weeks with price cuts in the past month.”

“Another factor in the housing market madness that deserves attention is the impact of investors.  While there have always been investors—individual and corporate—who purchased homes to either rent or flip, that number soared in Fall 2021.  Specifically, real estate investors bought nearly 20% of all United States homes during that time. Due to historically low mortgage rates driving up buyer demand (remember, buyers were able to afford more expensive homes due to the lower mortgage rates), home prices began to soar.  Investors took note of this trend and entered the market.  Many greedily raked in profits as they bought, held, and sold homes like stocks.”

“In late 2021 and early 2022, it was not uncommon to look at Redfin property history to see homes purchased and shortly resold for upwards of $100,000.  However, as interest rates—and therefore mortgage rates—increase, home buyer demand is slowing.  At the same time, bond values are starting to pick up.  In fact, I-bonds hits a historic high of 9.62% [5].  Investors who expected to ride the wave of rising real estate and easy profits are starting to feel the burn of property costs in a slowing market.  Many investors are exiting the market, cutting their losses.”

“A few recent examples from San Diego highlight this.  4300 Netwon Ave #34 was sold in March 2022 for $641,000 and quickly relisted in April 2022 for $740,000.  With no offers in a slowing market, the price has dropped to $688,000 in June 2022.  Similarly, 4511 G St was sold in May 2022 for $725,000 and went back on the market in June 2022 for $635,888.  9804 Caminito Bolsa sold in March 2021 for $400,000 and was relisted in May 2022 for $580,000.  Come June 2022, the price had dropped to $520,000.  Many more homes are advertising price cuts, a trend that is expected to continue as the year progresses.  The panicking investors looking to sell the properties will only increase the housing supply which, coupled with decreasing demand, will exacerbate the issue.”

“It should be noted that federal interest rates are not the same as mortgage rates.  Yet why do they correlate?  Any mortgage company that lends money to homeowners to purchase homes typically borrows money elsewhere to outright purchase the home.  Or, as the saying goes, they are robbing Peter to pay Paul.  In order to recoup their losses and make out ahead, there needs to be an upcharge.  This is so mortgage lenders make profit and do not simply break even.  Simply put, this tends to be a 3%-4% ‘cushion’ on top of the federal interest rate.”

“So what is a San Diegan to do?  Is now a good time to buy or sell? ‘You must not follow the crowd in doing wrong’ (Exodus 23:2).”

The Globe and Mail. “Home renovations can be unpredictable and anxiety-laden at the best of times. But soaring costs, rising interest rates, cooling home prices and uncertainty about Canada’s economic outlook are increasing the financial risks associated with a major property uplift, some real estate experts warn. Homeowners with large mortgage balances should ‘be careful with renovations right now,’ said Nasma Ali, broker and founder of One Group Toronto Real Estate.”

“Another squeeze on some home renovators’ budgets is coming from rising borrowing costs. Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). In Toronto’s east end, Hillary Strack-Cheng and her husband embarked on a sweeping home makeover September. They wanted to add two bedrooms and a bathroom to their small two-storey home to make room for their growing family. The couple had decided to renovate after calculating that a home extension would cost them less than selling the house and buying a bigger property in what was then a red-hot market.”

“But some nine months later, the project, which was temporarily derailed by a dispute with a contractor, is continuing. Delays and unexpected costs forced the couple to refinance their mortgage, which has a variable rate, and max out their HELOC. While the family expects to move back home in August, Ms. Strack-Cheng said rising interest rates are adding a layer of stress to an already stressful construction process.”

“‘The variable interest rate is tick-tick-tick climbing up a tiny bit, and that makes a difference when you’re maxed out,’ she said.”

“Recent homebuyers and real estate investors with significant mortgage debt are typically among the homeowners who are most exposed to the financial dangers of an ambitious renovation in a cooling housing market, Ms. Ali warned. With home prices in several markets stagnating or declining, one risk is that a home remodel won’t increase a property’s value by as much as the project cost. ‘I’m seeing these flips flopping everywhere right now,’ Ms. Ali said, speaking about real estate investors hoping to flip homes at a gain after renovating the properties.”

“Those planning on borrowing to finance a renovation should also keep in mind that HELOCs are callable, which means their terms can change, said Toronto mortgage broker David Larock. Lenders have the power to trim back the unused portion of a HELOC, leaving a homeowner unable to borrow additional amounts, Mr. Larock said. Or they could demand that the outstanding balance on the line of credit be folded into the mortgage, among other potential changes, he added.”

“While such instances are rare, lenders are more likely to trim back credit extended through HELOCs during periods of economic turmoil, he said. ‘When property values start decreasing, lenders want to lower their level of risk.'”

“In Vancouver, residential designer Jamie Banfield hasn’t seen client demand slow down yet, but he expects that to happen soon. ‘People are maxed out,’ he said, adding that many who bought larger homes during the pandemic have stretched their finances and now have limited resources left for renovations.”

“There’s also an element of fatigue, Mr. Banfield said. While interior designers are used to hearing from clients who say they have fallen in love with particular designs, looks or layouts, the dominant emotion right now seems to have become ‘just get it done,’ he said. That’s the stage Angela Dawn is at. The Toronto librarian said she’s currently storing a brand-new toilet in her living room and a bathtub on her front porch, after the contractor she’d hired for a bathroom overhaul unceremoniously bowed out of the job, citing ‘labour shortages.'”

“Ms. Dawn, who lives in a two-floor semi-detached home with her husband and two kids, added that she had been waiting for the contractor, who came highly recommended, to take on the project for nearly two years. Now, she said, she’s back to square one. ‘I have no concept of how much more it’s going to cost us, or how we’re going to handle that or how we’re going to find a contractor,’ she said.”

From CBC News. “It is inevitable that if incomes fail to keep pace with a 6.8 per cent inflation rate, more Canadian wage earners will be forced to scrimp. But there are increasing signs it is not just those without savings who are looking for ways to spend less. Research on something called ‘the wealth effect’ has shown that the many Canadians who have savings invested in real estate, stocks or cryptocurrency are not exempt from the urge to economize.”

“Those who have studied the wealth effect, including Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem in 1994 when he was but a humble researcher for the central bank, have concluded the phenomenon is real. Nonetheless, there is still debate, and even contradictory studies, over exactly how it works. Certainly the classic anecdotal example for the wealth effect is housing and car sales, where, as the price of relatively modest houses begins to rise in a neighbourhood, new and sometimes expensive cars begin to appear in driveways.”

“The anecdote has research to back it up from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the Down Under equivalent of the Bank of Canada. In 2015, when Aussie house prices were rising at about 10 per cent a year, the RBA study showed that, ‘there is a robust cross-sectional relationship between changes in housing wealth and new vehicle registrations.'”

“The reason why the housing example is especially interesting is because for the most part, those homeowners who bought the cars were not planning to sell their houses to realize the increase in value. That indicates a psychological effect. ‘I mean, really, are you wealthier if you are a 50-year-old and your house has doubled in value?’ Mark Kamstra, an economist who studies behavioural finance at York University’s Schulich School of Business in Toronto, asked rhetorically. ‘What are you going to do? You still have kids in high .school. You’re not going to move from the neighbourhood. You can’t downsize. How is that wealth in any sense?'”

This Post Has 127 Comments
    1. You will ride zee public transportation. Private autos will be reserved for Comrades of Proven Worth (D), along with SFHs. Should zee proles find zis arrangement unsatisfactory, zee boxcars await. Forward!

      1. FYI, here is the full WEF article which inspired/accompanied the “you will own nothing” video:

        I won’t spoil the article for you — it will take only a couple minutes to read. Fun fun. After this article was published, the author had to write a preface stating that the article was just one potential vision of the future, not an actual goal of the WEF. Heh, no one believes her.

  1. From the 4 minute Kitsap video:

    Kitsap Housing Crash Imminent? Prices Down, Inventory Up

    Jun 24, 2022 Is a Kitsap Housing Crash Immiment? The Kitsap housing market is in the beginning stages of a massive change – Pending prices collected on the ground indicate significant price changes ahead, and the Kitsap real estate market already is seeing the beginnings of price changes in lagging indicators – this looks like a fast – which often means significant – change in the real estate market for Bremerton real estate, Silverdale real estate market and surrounding areas.

    From the 14 minute K-da video:

    Home Prices Struggling In Vaughan, Richmond Hill & Markham

    Vaughan Home Prices, Richmond Hill Home Prices & Markham Home Prices for the week of June 9 – June 15, 2022. This video will focus specifically on Vaughan Richmond Hill & Markham.

  2. ‘The average salary in Miami in 1955 was $3,400 and NEW homes could be bought for under 8k. Now the average salary is around 65K and USED homes like this cost over 500k which need extensive repairs. If you can’t see what’s wrong with this picture then you are part of the problem’

    What are you getting at Ben, are you saying the whole shack market is a coordinated scam to fool us into thinking this is a real economy?

    Yep. It’s cuz globalism never worked (ask China, btw) and they had to prop this sh$tcart up and chose shacks.

    1. Ask any accountant, it’s been really difficult to hide the $Trillions in middle-east war spending since 1973, and we have nothing to show for it other than endemic corruption and poverty.

        1. Don’t forget the 2,000-yr old, 6’2″ middle-eastern anthropological miracle with dirty blonde hair, alabaster skin and orthodontic aligned teeth who will only return to the Mount of Olives.

          BTW, phuq frugal. “Get down to Disney World in Florida. Take your families and enjoy life, the way we want it to be enjoyed.” —Dubya

    2. “ ‘The average salary in Miami in 1955 was $3,400 and NEW homes could be bought for under 8k. Now the average salary is around 65K and USED homes like this cost over 500k which need extensive repairs. ”

      Note that this article is discussing individual incomes in relation to house prices, which is how it should be discussed, not household incomes, which usually now means two people working.

      I don’t think that average income is the best measure, though, as we now have such a divergence in incomes, i.e. income inequality, whereas in the 50s there wasn’t such a spread between the high and the low. Average income was a better measure then than it is now. Sure, if you average a surgeon’s wage and that of a number of fast food workers you might show a $65,000 average income for an area, but how many jobs pay $65,000? Almost none. Most jobs, even in major cities, are under $50,000.

      It’s all just disgusting.

  3. ‘Come June 2022, the price had dropped to $520,000. Many more homes are advertising price cuts, a trend that is expected to continue as the year progresses. The panicking investors looking to sell the properties will only increase the housing supply which, coupled with decreasing demand, will exacerbate the issue’

    How the mighty have fallen.

    ‘ Any mortgage company that lends money to homeowners to purchase homes typically borrows money elsewhere to outright purchase the home. Or, as the saying goes, they are robbing Peter to pay Paul. In order to recoup their losses and make out ahead, there needs to be an upcharge. This is so mortgage lenders make profit and do not simply break even. Simply put, this tends to be a 3%-4% ‘cushion’ on top of the federal interest rate’


  4. ‘While such instances are rare, lenders are more likely to trim back credit extended through HELOCs during periods of economic turmoil, he said. ‘When property values start decreasing, lenders want to lower their level of risk’

    Oh that? So why would lenders make a loan under inflation rates, AND shack prices are falling? Seems like a recipe for a$$ poundings.

    1. As you know I’m watching a lot of videos. I am seeing this all the time: UHS – go ahead and buy, you can always refinance later. I can remember when this sort of thing kicked a lot of peoples a$$es.

    2. “… lenders are more likely to trim back credit extended through HELOCs during periods of economic turmoil,”

      Lenders powered the boom and lenders will now exacerbate the bust.

      Lenders rule, others drool.

  5. Heckova job, BoE.

    Want to move home? Good luck affording one! Cost of a typical family house shoots to record seven times average earnings after prices soared during pandemic

    Homes in Britain are less affordable than ever before, with house prices seven times the average income.

    Property prices shot up during the Covid-19 pandemic, taking the chances of buying a home further out of reach for most families, according to research by Hailfax.

    The bank said that although wages have risen by just 2.7%, house prices have risen by 16.8% since the pandemic began.

  6. There was an insurrection in Phoenix, AZ last night. Violent leftists attempted to storm the state capitol building while the legislature was in session.

    “They’re not sending their best”

      1. DHS has upgraded its warning system from “Mostly Peaceful Protests” to “Somewhat Peaceful Protests.” Now, back to the J6 show trials.

    1. In fairness to the terrorist, he only had 30 years to assimilate and adopt western cultural values.

  7. In Greenville SC , a “Contractor ” ,came back and offed a couple he was working for and had a dispute with…..And when Police closed in on him ,in the motel room he was staying in, he “Offed” himself….Why would anyone hire a contractor to do work, who lives in a motel, anyways ?

    1. That’s interesting and unexpected. But if farmer’s input costs are way up (diesel, fertilizer) and prices of end product are down. That’s going to be bad.

      Also flour has doubled in price at the store in 3 months. ($1.85/5lb cheap generic bag to $3.59)

      1. “But if farmer’s input costs are way up (diesel, fertilizer) and prices of end product are down. That’s going to be bad.”

        Indeed. And the farmers are also squeezed by interest rates, notably all inputs currently rising.

  8. Putin is being blamed for soaring food prices caused by the disruption of Ukrainian grain exports to the Middle East and Africa…and a new “migrant crisis” hitting Europe. Never mind that globalist Quisling EU governments have been facilitating such unrestricted immigration for years at the behest of their puppet masters’ agenda of “fundamental transformation.”

    Migrant death toll rises to 18 and another 70 are injured after more than 2,000 stormed fence to break into Spanish enclave bordering Morocco in tragedy at EU’s only land border with Africa

    At least 18 African migrants died when a huge crowd tried to cross into the Spanish enclave of Melilla in northern Morocco, according to an update from Moroccan authorities.

    Some 2,000 migrants made approached the EU’s only land border with Africa at dawn on Friday and over 500 managed to enter a border control area after cutting a fence with shears, the Spanish government’s local delegation said in a statement.

    1. Ha, did not know part of the Morocco land mass was partially a Spain controlled area. Pulled this from wikipedia:

      ‘In 1993 Spain began building the Ceuta and Melilla border fence, which were further strengthened in 1995.[10] In response to an increase in the number of migrants attempts to breach the fence, both were significantly fortified in 2005, creating a doubled-fence system replete with barbed wire and surveillance equipment.[11] Since then there have been numerous attempts to cross the fences, resulting in several fatalities.[12] On 17 May 2021, more than 6,000 migrants crossed the border into Ceuta. It was widely speculated that Morocco permitted the sudden influx to punish Spain for allowing Polisario Front leader Brahim Ghali to be treated at a Spanish hospital.[13][14] The next day, Morocco closed the border again.[15] Most of the arrivals returned to Morocco.[14][16]’

  9. How do corporate landlords like BlackRock and Vanguard intend to gouge their tenants, when the latter are falling further behind in our oligarch-looted, inflation ravaged, Biden-mismanaged economy?

    More Than 8 Million Americans Are Late on Rent as Prices Increase

    About 15% of US renters aren’t caught up with their payments, according to Census Bureau data, and it’s about to get worse this summer as many leases come due and landlords boost prices.

    That represents 8.4 million Americans who were struggling to pay their monthly rents during the June 1 to June 13 period of the Census survey. The share was markedly higher for Black Americans — almost a quarter are behind — and for people age 40 to 54, an age when many are at their earnings peak.

  10. Looks like the vulture funds who used their access to free unlimited Yellen Bux “stimulus” to hoover up thousands of shacks are starting to get nervous about being left holding the bag.

    Sternlicht’s Starwood Looks to Unload 3,000 Homes for $1 Billion

    The property owner is seeking to sell thousands of rental homes as the US housing market starts to ease.

  11. At its peak 1.4 million abortions were performed per year in around 1990. It’s gone down to a average of about 600 thousand performed yearly.
    The polls say 58% of population favor abortion, with some polls saying a much higher amount.
    So, that tells me that you will probably have a high percentage of States pass laws allowing abortions, with some States being more restrictive than others.
    So, my State California will be very liberal regarding abortion rights, some other States might not be, that’s all. Some States might limit the time span one has to abort, and stuff like that.
    But, this mob rage and call to abolish Supreme Court , and the spin by the Democrats and Fake news on what this ruling means is nuts.
    This ruling wasn’t a ban on abortions Nation wide, as the Democrats and fake news are implying.

    1. but what are the consequences for the housing market?
      Will this ruling make housing in California more desirable?
      (as there is the freedom for abortions)

      1. People are fleeing California because of high taxes, most expensive gas, lack of affordable housing, etc, but its got liberal abortion laws.
        But yes , what the laws are in any state will affect how much people want to move to, or leave that state.

    2. With the hyperbole and histrionics, you’d think we didn’t have other forms of birth control.

      1. If you even suggest that one form of birth control is 100% effective, that is, don’t have sex, you will be immediately pummeled by the mob. You see these people want to have their sex and NO CONSEQUENCES, too.

  12. The Causes of the Inventory Spike in the Phoenix Housing Market
    Jun 24, 2022

    I’ve attended two Cromford Market Reports this month as they have the most up-to-date data. This chart is the Active listings weekly counts for 300-400k. You see we have all the way back to 2018 and our inventory levels are still only higher than 2021. this chart is the active listing weekly count for 400k-1.5 Million. 126% increase in 8 weeks. This is the listings under contract for 300-400k so you can see that the inventory increased mainly due to fewer buyers. The interest rate increases and the economic uncertainty has hit investors and first-time home buyers the hardest and these are the buyer in this price point. This is the listings under contract for 400k-1.5 Million…not a big drop off so that HUGE spike of active listings is 100% due to more homes being listed on the market.

    4 minutes. You can skip ahead to the part with charts.

  13. ‘The deals will be abundant’: Las Vegas real estate prices steadily decreasing

    Jun 24, 2022 For more than two years, prospective home buyers have been drowning in a competitive market. Now, real estate experts say things are finally cooling down which could help those looking to buy a home here in Las Vegas.


  14. Aussie sheeple who elected Quisling regimes are reaping what they voted as air travel has become a nightmare due to staff shortages thanks to employees quitting or being fired after no-jab/no-job ultimatums imposed on the airlines.

    Travellers encounter more delays at Australian airports as school holiday rush sets in

    The disruption at Australian airports is set to continue as the winter school holiday rush sets in.

  15. twelve years ago we interviewed Ben and some of the commenters of this blog for a documentary on German TV – and what was said ‘then’ -(and posted) about ‘the housing bubble’ is nearly exactly the same as what get’s posted now. (with the exception that 12 years ago ‘politics’ weren’t as much of an issue as the commenters were from ‘both political sides’)

    So what happened?
    And as in 2010 there seemed to be this broad consense, that housing should NOT fall (entirely) into the hands of speculators and that there is nothing more devastating for a fair housing market than the general ‘US Boom and Bust Economy’ – is that still the consense?

    1. “and what was said ‘then’ -(and posted) about ‘the housing bubble’ is nearly exactly the same as what get’s posted now”

      It rhymes.

      1. “It rhymes”

        …. but all the same crimes.

        Speaking of, these Realtors and appraisers seem oblivious to all the fraud. I don’t think they realize most of them are on hbb candid camera….Dumbasses.

        Vallejo, CA Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Double Digit Prices Declines And Plunging Rental Rates Blanket Bay Area

        1. so will it be a repeat of the collapse of 2008 and everybody who wasn’t prepared for the bust and has enough reserves to get through it – until the next boom in the coming years will be badly hurt?

  16. The Democrats and fake news are creating mass psychosis and mob rage by the RvW ruling , just like with the Covid Panademic.
    Are they going to censor any dispute on talking about this ruling, as they did with dispute to the vaccines?
    Vote for Joe Biden because the Democrats will restore women’s rights.

    1. Meh. Ever since Orange Man Bad, the Left has existed in a state of perpetual rage. That said, when Communists like Lenin, Stalin, Mao, and Pol Pot look up from their places in hell at their ideological heirs in the DNC and at the spaghetti-armed Red Guards of Antifa and other Soros scum, they must feel a sense of profound disappointment and disgust. Look at the societal dregs that have taken up the torch the original hard men of the Communist revolutionary movement bequeathed them.

      1. Antifa membership standards require that males be no more than 125 pounds, females no less than 250 pounds, and for the non-binary, no less than 3 convictions involving either sexual assault, rape, or gross indecency involving a child.

        “They’re not sending their best”

      1. I’ll help you with your headlines, MB:

        Manitou Springs, CO house price plunge causes realtors to turn feral, resort to robbing area birds’ nests and Koi ponds to obtain nourishment

        Plunge in Colorado Springs home prices causes greedhead FBs to join Doomsday cult as open houses attract only vagrants looking for a bathroom break.

        Roving gangs of realtors unable to close sales clash with panhandlers for control of prime begging intersections; attempt to wrest control of local underpasses and tunnels from winos

  17. I’ve been watching Manitou Springs as a bellwether of how Housing Bubble 2.0 is doing. Inventory remains low (52), though it’s starting to creep up. More auspiciously, Manitou Springs greedheads who’d stubbornly clung to their delusional wish prices for weeks or months suddenly got spooked last week, as reductions went from laughable to some fairly significant sawin’ and slashin’…am I not entertained? Not yet, shack prices are still ludicrous, but seller greed is giving way to fear. Got popcorn?

  18. “…it’s estimated that, when adjusted for inflation, the $7,900 three-bedroom property in Miami would have cost $85,841.58 in today’s money.”

    Congratulations to the Fed for engineering housing price inflation that attracted a bevy of speculators who drove housing beyond the financial means of middle American families. Heckuva job!

    1. The historical numbers are both eye opening and saddening but I think it’s important to admit that we are ALL guilty. Everyone wants to play the game even though we instinctively know that the game of monopoly always ends in tears. How do we collectively break ourselves from the urge to play? It is such self destructive behavior in the long run but it doesn’t have to be this way. We could have sensible pricing if we really wanted to but there is currently no genuine interest on the part of any significant group of people. Why is this? You would think the ‘free market’ would organize itself to resolve this problem but we don’t.

  19. Austin Housing Market Update | The turn has happened | Where do we go from here?

    Streamed live 19 hours ago Austin housing market update about the changing number of homes in the residential real estate market, the pending recession, Austin’s rate of construction, and what that will do to the market when those homes are finally ready to move into.

    I’ll also share the problems I am facing as a residential developer and what avenues I am exploring to both prepare for what is coming and build in this current environment.

    13:16. DONG!

  20. 3 More Signs of a Cooling Market | Seattle Housing Market 2022
    Jun 24, 2022

    Have you heard the news? There are even more signs the Greater Seattle Real Estate market is cooling. Bidding wars have exited stage right and price reductions are becoming common place. By now, most everyone is catching on to the fact that our crazy Seattle Area seller’s market has gone away. Gone are the days of bidding wars all over the place. At least for now. In today’s video we are going over 3 of the latest factors indicating that the Greater Seattle Real Estate market CONTINUES to soften and it doesn’t look like this will end anytime soon.

    00:00 Have you heard the news? Seattle housing market continues to cool.
    01:03 #1 Real Estate Industry Layoffs (Seattle Times Article:
    01:54 #2 Slowing Housing Starts
    03:29 #3 Boots on the Ground & Networking with Active Agents

    5:13. I just watched the intro and boots sections.

  21. Sarasota Housing Market is On Ice!

    Premiered 18 hours ago Housing Inventory is rising…prices are falling. Google word Searches like “Housing in Sarasota” are down by over 10 % in the last 39 days! Interest Rates have jumped over 2 percentage points in a year with 7 or more predicted in the next two years! “Price Reduced” is all over the MLS in Sarasota and Manatee Counties! What can buyers do in a Cooling Housing Market? What should sellers be doing in a Cooling Housing Market?

    15:27. This guy lays down the warnings on subprime loans!

    1. 33458 is rapidly changing.

      Although I have only ever looked at single family, anything listed 3 months ago went contingent in days, now they are sitting with price reductions.

  22. Interpreting Market Reports in a Shifting Market

    Jun 25, 2022 The headlines are salacious, with the media trying to pull the housing market into what is happening with the recession and inflation. Before you transact – either as a buyer or a seller – please have your agent give you the actual numbers for the neighborhood you are in. Broad market data and clickbait headlines are not the right way to buy a home. I’m always happy to send information on neighborhoods and trends. Looking for a Realtor in Naples?


  23. Gosh, we’d better hurry up and surrender more of our rights so Big Brother can keep us safe….

    Violent attacks could go on ‘for weeks’ in response to US Roe v. Wade ruling

    After the US Supreme Court’s decision to strike down the right to abortion, a government security agency has warned of extremists launching “violent attacks”.

    Extremists are expected to launch violent attacks “for weeks” in response to the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling — with politicians and judges among the most likely targets, the Department of Homeland Security warned Friday.

    “Some domestic violent extremists (DVEs) will likely exploit the recent US Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe V. Wade to intensify violence against a wide range of targets,” according to a three-page, unclassified memo obtained by CNN.

    1. And all this violent mob rage is going to divert from forces that are trying to take all rights and freedoms from the populations of the World.
      People better wise up to the methods used by the One World Order, with their criminal Puppet in the White House.
      In the meantime , children 5 and under are being injected with poison , all age groups have died and were injured by the vaccine, and they are sitting up for another pandemic, with lockdowns etc. as planned.
      I predict it will be done just in time to rig the 2022 elections.

        1. ‘We knew the Vaccines didn’t last long’

          I don’t know which has the worst outfit, Deb or the lady in the back.

    1. I bought a ticket for later t his summer just a few days ago. The flight has already been cancelled and I was assigned a new flight.

    Feeling The Market Shift [June Update 2022]

    Jun 24, 2022 Where is the Conejo Valley Real Estate Market in June 2022? . In this video I break down where the real estate market is this week in Conejo Valley, which includes the Thousand Oaks real estate market, Newbury Park real estate market, Westlake Village real estate market, and Agoura Hills real estate market. Today, we take a look at housing inventory and mortgage rates. We also clarify what I mean by a “market shift”


    1. Meanwhile down the hill in Moorpark
      “The Moorpark Planning Commission has recommended that the City Council approve a proposed 755-unit residential development.
      “Moorpark needs more homes,” Commissioner Jeff Brodsly said at the conclusion of Tuesday night’s lengthy hearing on the proposed 277-acre Hitch Ranch project.
      “Homes are going to be built somewhere no matter what,” he said. “… So, I’m in support of the project.”
      Commissioner Bruce Rokos agreed.
      “It’s not perfect,” he said, “but it’s great. It brings housing.”

  25. Arizona Real Estate-Tough Summer for Sellers

    Streamed live 54 minutes ago Data is pointing towards a challenging summer for Sellers in the Arizona real estate market.

    41 minutes. At 4 minutes he mentions this blog and shows 2018 posts. 2018 was the ebola! Price reductions at 10 minutes. 23:15 predicts tonights numbers will show 2,000 shack hit the market in the past week. The way I watch these long videos is I scroll along the bar at the bottom and catch the stats, Cromford charts in this case.

    1. “When did it become the AG’s job to weigh in on SCOTUS rulings?”

      When they were choosing Biden Cabinet members and Merrick Garland was installed as Attorney General by Joe Biden’s puppet masters after the 2020 Presidential Election was stolen.

      1. “after the 2020 Presidential Election was stolen”

        Did I hear somebody say the 2020 election was stolen? Don’t you get like banned from social media for saying that the 2020 election was stolen?

        Oh, wait. This isn’t Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

        And yeah, the 2020 election was stolen.


        1. $54+ to fill up the Subaru topping off from ~1/4 tank or so. And I don’t drive it that much now.


    2. Maybe since the SCOTUS became an extension of our dysfunctional two-party electoral political system?

    1. It was already like that when I visited in 2017.

      I felt perfectly safe that year in Budapest. In London? Nope.

    1. Dylan Holland and Breanna Cameron paid 10% above asking price to win a bidding war against 14 others to buy their first home in Canton, Ga. Kendrick Brinson for The Wall Street Journal

      Real Estate
      What It Takes to Buy Your First Home Now
      Interest rates are rising, supply is thin and bidding wars remain widespread. ‘It’s just so ridiculous and disheartening.’
      By Nicole Friedman and
      Veronica Dagher
      June 25, 2022 12:00 am ET

      Dylan Holland and Breanna Cameron started shopping for their first home in the Atlanta suburbs in December 2021, with a budget of about $350,000. They quickly discovered they would have to do a lot more than they had planned to get a home.

    2. SPEND
      The 10 worst US cities for first-time homebuyers
      Published Fri, Jun 24 2022 9:15 AM EDT
      Molly Schiff
      LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – FEBRUARY 11: A man takes photos with snow-capped mountains standing behind the skyline of downtown of the city on February 11, 2019 in Los Angeles, California.
      Mario Tama | Getty Images News | Getty Images

      Where there are good options, there are also options that are not as ideal. So, while there are highly ranked U.S. cities for first-time homebuyers, there are also those at the bottom of the list.

      That list is Bankrate’s best metro areas for first-time homebuyers study, which looks at 50 metro areas, scoring each on affordability, wellness, job market, market tightness and safety. The scores were then combined to create a final ranking, with affordability counting for 30%, wellness and culture counting for 10%, and housing market tightness, safety and employment factors each counting for 20%.

        1. Here are the 10 worst metro areas for first-time homebuyers, according to Bankrate:

          1 Los Angeles- Long Beach- Anaheim
          2 Las Vegas- Henderson- Paradise
          3 Seattle- Tacoma- Bellevue
          4 Riverside- San Bernardino- Ontario, California
          5 San Jose- Sunnyvale- Santa Clara, California
          6 Denver- Aurora- Lakewood
          7 Houston- The Woodlands- Sugarland
          8 San Francisco- Oakland- Hayward
          9 Orlando, Florida
          10 San Diego-Carlsbad

          1. “Unsurprisingly, Los Angeles ranks No. 50 overall for first-time homebuyers, due largely to its expensive real estate and low median income. L.A.’s median income is similar to that of Pittsburgh — the No. 1 city on the list — but it has a much tighter housing market.

            One thing that sticks out: About half of the lowest-ranked cities are in California. And those areas almost entirely make up the bottom five affordability rankings. In terms of affordability, Riverside ranks at No. 42, San Diego at No. 47, San Francisco at No. 48, Los Angeles at No. 49 and San Jose at No. 50.”

  26. An informative chart …

    An explanation:

    “The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) provides a comprehensive weekly update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt and equity markets and the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.”

    1. The above chart presents a long term perspective. For shorter time spans click on the 10Y, the 5Y, and the 1Y.

      IMO there is a lot of useful information contained in this chart.


  27. ‘The variable interest rate is tick-tick-tick climbing up a tiny bit, and that makes a difference when you’re maxed out’

    Hillary, the suns going down, can you please step back and face it? Perfect.


  28. Home Shopping Ladder Blooper

    Jul 10, 2007 Harold McCoo of the Cable Value Network (CVN) takes a tumble off the ol flex-o-ladder as Karen Connelly looks on in this classic home shopping blooper

    From the description:

    Here’s a comment from the director of this classic moment: A little sentimental journey down CVN way. . .
    Yes! My most diabolically cherished moment of all the hundreds of hours I sat in that CVN directors chair. Why the dark fates smiled on me that day, why they so honored me, remains a mystery, but there I was — lets move into full flashback mode now. . .
    The whole sell starts out routinely enough (as we all know, since Im sure that each of us cant even begin to count how many times weve watched this clip over the years) but it soon becomes very clear that his Grand Arrogance is suddenly staring imminent come-uppance right in the face.
    Had it been anyone else except that little jerk, the instant he started climbing — and folks pretty quickly sensed that things just did not feel right — and then, especially when Karen says Harold, youre scaring me, had it been any other host, I would have gone to tape immediately so the floor could re-group and avoid what was stacking up to be complete catastrophe.
    However, this was Harold. . . I wanted everyone to share in this rare and important milestone in Harolds life, and I wanted to allow him the opportunity to show everyone the kind of person he really was. And yes, I do take a certain pride, I must say, in playing no small part in making it possible for Harold McCoo to utter his famous, defiant, and pathetic line, now it’s locked in place, and to make this line not only a household catch phrase, but also to provide His Twerpness with a perfect epitaph: HERE LIES HAORLD MCCOO; NOW HES LOCKED IN PLACE…. See More
    But I must say, in Harolds defense, and especially since I am such a charitable old softie maybe its just the nun in me trying to bust lose once and for all, I dont know but as Harold writhes and slithers there on the floor and gosh darn if I didnt plumb forget to cut his mic he experiences an epiphany, a sudden realization of where he went wrong, and Ill always remember his contrite, confused, sad little voice: actually, I didnt have it locked. Its hard at first to pick out those words, those weak, tiny syllables especially since Karen is laughing so much but there it is.
    Well, thats my story, boys and girls. Now, before we conclude our broadcast day, I will leave you with this thought. . .

    Whenever Im down and feeling blue,
    I think of Harold McCoo.
    See how through the air he flies;
    See how on the floor he writhingly lies.

    O Harold, is there for you any safe refuge,
    My little self-aggrandizing, egomaniacal stooge?
    But let me just in these few words condense
    Gratitude for all the laughs all at your expense.

  29. Ok, so Dr Brix and Dr Fauci know their Covid Response was BS, but now Dr Brix is trying to weave a tale that Trump is to blame for Covid deaths.
    But nice that Jim Jordon got her to admit that they knew the vaccines didn’t last long. Basically Biden lied in telling the Public that you won’t get Covid, or be hospitalized, etc. ,if you take the shot.
    Also Dr Brix retired when it was discovered that she had a holiday with her family, when she was advising the Country to not have any contact or holidays with family.
    Its also a fact that she is trying to get rehired by the Biden Adminstration . Get the picture!

    1. Reading those comments is scary, those are some twisted and dangerous
      sounding people. Oh well, I’m sure Merrick Garland is all over it and investigating these people who are making dangerous threats about the Supreme Court Justices and is readying search warrants with armed FBI squads ready to kick their front doors at 2am with the tipped off CNN cameras rolling like Biden’s DOJ did to Roger Stone and others closely associated with Donald Trump.

  30. Gender dysphoria is a mental illness. Those suffering from it deserve treatment and support, not mutilation by “gender affirming” clinics.

    ‘My first thought as I came round was Oh God! What have I done?’: Man suing the NHS over trans surgery he bitterly regrets has bravely waived anonymity to share his ordeal

    For Ritchie Herron, a bright and articulate civil servant from Newcastle, life over the past four years has become almost unbearable. It takes him ten minutes to empty his bladder, a process as painful as it is slow. Any sex drive is long gone. In fact, he says, his crotch is numb, ‘shell-shocked’ from the damage done to him under the apparent care of the NHS.

    1. And its a known fact that the sucide rate is high with transgenders that get the operations. . .

    1. I think Disney won’t get it until theme park attendance collapses, though they might blame it on the economy.

    2. “Allen is candid about his conservative values, which even became a mark of some of his work, such as LAST MAN STANDING and HOME IMPROVEMENT.”


      Published: June 16, 2022

      Disney/Pixar Made a Huge Mistake’: Patricia Heaton Blasts LIGHTYEAR For Replacing Tim Allen

      By Movieguide® Staff

      Patricia Heaton recently voiced her opinion of Disney’s decision to cast Chris Evans over Tim Allen for the role of Buzz in the upcoming TOY STORY spin-off movie, LIGHTYEAR.

      “Saw the trailer for Buzz Lightyear and all I can say is Disney/Pixar made a HUGE mistake in not casting my pal Tim Allen in the role that he originated, the role that he owns,” the EVERYBODY LOVES RAYMOND star wrote in a tweet. “Tim IS Buzz! Why would they completely castrate this iconic, beloved character?”

      Allen is candid about his conservative values, which even became a mark of some of his work, such as LAST MAN STANDING and HOME IMPROVEMENT.

      Aside from the creative choice to swap out Allen as the iconic voice of Buzz Lightyear, the change could also signal another step toward Disney’s emphasis on sexuality over the story.

      The company recently catered to the LGBTQ+ community, retreating from its decision to cut a lesbian kissing scene from LIGHTYEAR.

  31. ‘for the most part, those homeowners who bought the cars were not planning to sell their houses to realize the increase in value’

  32. Another “Oh dear” moment in time. I’m going to take special satisfaction at seeing the housing bubble bust play out in the globalist Quisling satellite countries of Australia, New Zealand, and Canada.

    Geelong-based building company Waterford Homes collapses

    The construction industry woes continue with a Victorian builder revealing it has gone into liquidation with at least $600,000 in debt.

    A Victorian builder based in the regional city of Geelong has gone into liquidation, with a number of homeowners, tradies and subcontractors impacted.

    The builder, Waterford Homes, had a number of homes under construction, according to the liquidator appointed Ben te Wierik of BTW Advisory.

    It comes as Australia’s building industry is in crisis, with about a dozen companies going into liquidation so far this year amid rising costs for construction materials, the ongoing supply chain crisis and fixed contracts, putting many out of business.

  33. Housing market shoeshine girl moment: Now that I have completely lost interest in discussing the housing bubble with anybody, and for the most part stopped doing so years ago, my lovely wife nowadays strikes up the conversation about insanely overvalued housing prices with almost everyone she talks with. It’s hard to ignore when prices increase by 30% in one year from already overvalued levels.

  34. ‘Now that I have completely lost interest in discussing the housing bubble with anybody, and for the most part stopped doing so years ago’ –
    – what is different than last time? (2008-2012)

    How many years will it take this time until the prices are back to the level of 2021?

    Will the slump this time be worth than in 2008-12?

    And why didn’t so many Americans learn from the last collapse and didn’t take precaution?

    Because they got distracted by fighting about… ‘politics’?

    1. And why didn’t so many Americans learn from the last collapse

      I doubt the average person understands that quantitative easing rescued the market last time and the significance of quantitative tightening.

      1. “I doubt the average person understands that quantitative easing rescued the market last time…”

        Approximately none.

    2. And why didn’t so many Americans learn from the last collapse and didn’t take precaution?

      I have learned to my dismay that most people think housing is just taking a breather and that prices will continue to rise, especially people who are priced out. You tell them that the crash has already begun and they don’t believe you.

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