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A Wintry Summer Is Brewing While Sellers Clamber For Yesterday’s Prices

A report from the San Francisco Chronicle in California. “Redfin agent Andrea Chopp said while so many buyers have been priced out of the market, she thinks it’s actually a great time to buy — if you can afford it. ‘A lot of [homes] are just sitting now. There’s no competition. Where there might have been competition a few months ago, now you have interest rates, high gas prices, inflation and people have just stopped,’ Chopp said. ‘Buyers right now have the most power they’ve had since I’ve been doing this.'”

“Chopp, an agent since 2015, said some of her sellers are considering renting their properties given how long it’s taking to get an offer. She said sellers have had to adjust their expectations and be prepared for a lower price than they were anticipating and even accept contingencies. ‘Now all of a sudden three weeks on the market and sellers are freaking out. That’s normal in the rest of the country,’ Chopp said. ‘Contingencies were impossible before.'”

“There is typically a slight summer slowdown in the housing market, but the past few weeks have been jarring. ‘It’s like it just stopped. Buyers have completely disappeared,’ Chopp said. ‘Since I’ve been doing this, it’s never been this slow.'”

“‘When you look at the typical home value in San Francisco at $1.5 million, that’s up significantly, about 30%, since before the pandemic. When you also couple the interest rate hikes with that, you’re looking at thousands of dollars more a month in a mortgage than even just a year ago,’ said Nicole Bachaud, an economist with Zillow. ‘Using that example and looking at a 3% interest rate versus a 6% interest rate, that’s more than a $2,000 difference. That’s more than most people’s mortgages across the country.'”

The Washington Post. “We asked Craigh McCullough, principal for the Catalyst Group at Compass real estate in D.C., for advice for sellers in a hurry. Q: Are sellers still getting multiple offers? Is there a strategy they’re using to encourage that? McCullough: Sellers should no longer expect multiple offers. It’s still happening, but with much less frequency. The only way to encourage this is to price low, but you also risk only one offer coming in at the low price. Right now, patience and realistic expectations are key.”

From Forbes. “For Pamela Grunstein, a real estate agent in Westchester County, New York, it felt like the housing market went from hot to cold in the span of only a week. The phone, which often had been ringing off the hook, she says, began to ring just a few times a day. Open houses had been attracting dozens of prospective buyers, and suddenly, some had zero traffic. Like Grunstein, many real estate agents across the country say they have seen housing market activity suddenly come to a halt. So, what happens next?”

“‘This is a time of nervousness,’ says Drew Coleman, owner of Opt Real Estate in Portland, Oregon.’Twists and turns are confusing.'”

From Bloomberg on New York. “Manhattan’s hot real estate market is starting to cool. After more than a year of frenzied sales that moved quickly and often above asking price, ‘there’s no more fear of missing out,’ said Kimberly Jay, an Upper East Side-based Compass Inc. agent.”

The Dallas Morning News. “Zillow Group Inc. will lay off 55 employees in Texas as continues its exit from the home-flipping business. The company began the layoffs with 33 employees in January and will continue with the remaining employees in phases lasting until August, according to a notice it filed June 17 with the Texas Workforce Commission. The notice said the layoffs are due to the elimination of its Zillow Offers business, an iBuying service through which Zillow bought, fixed and sold homes for profit in major markets such as Dallas-Fort Worth.”

From Candy’s Dirt. “On June 24, Plano lender First Guaranty Mortgage notified more than 400 of its employees during a virtual call that they no longer had jobs at the company. According to the company’s WARN Act filing with the Texas Workforce Commission, the mass layoff was the result of ‘significant operating losses and cash flow challenges due to unforeseen historical adverse market conditions for the mortgage lending industry, including unanticipated market volatility.'”

“First Guaranty isn’t the only mortgage firm that is shedding jobs as quickly rising interest rates force the real estate market to cool. According to Bloomberg, JPMorgan laid off 1,000 employees from its home-lending division. Insider reported that Wells Fargo cut hundreds of employees in April after its mortgage revenue cratered by more than a third, year over year.”

“However, the nature of the layoffs — and some candid statements from former employees — suggest that First Guaranty might have had trouble brewing of a different sort. In a report from National Mortgage Professional, PIMCO — short for Pacific Investment Management Company — bought into First Guaranty in 2015. Former First Guaranty employees cited the loss of this significant investor in March as the likely cause of the layoffs. Some employees in the Friday meeting were suspicious as they had just received pay stubs the day before with additional payouts for accrued paid time off.”

“The layoffs follow the recent launch of First Guaranty’s “Second Lien Program,” which allowed homeowners to access equity without affecting their rates. Dubbed “Explorer Equity,” the program was modeled after similar programs offered by competing firms:FGMC’s Second Lien Program, known as Explorer Equity, is currently limited to a Stand-Alone offering; however, the company plans to expand to offer a piggy-back option quickly. Also, with flexible guidelines and expanded credit parameters like a minimum credit score of 680, up to 100% combined Loan-To-Value (LTV), allowance of owner-occupied or second homes, and the ability to qualify despite past bankruptcies, this program increases loan accessibility for borrowers who may not otherwise qualify.'”

The Delta Optimist in Canada. “A wintry summer is brewing for B.C.’s real estate market with soaring interest rates drastically reducing buyer purchasing power while sellers clamber for yesterday’s prices. Sales declines were observed in most regions of the province. Specifically, the real estate boards of Chilliwack (-25 per cent) and the Fraser Valley (-20 per cent), which covers Abbotsford-Mission and eastern communities of Metro Vancouver, including Surrey, led the drop in sales while the rest of Metro Vancouver fell 18 per cent. Vancouver Island fell 18 percent.”

“Declining sales are contributing to a quick moderation in market conditions. Fewer sales and steady new listings lifted active listings in the province for a fifth straight month with inventory on the rise in most markets. Sales-to-active listings ratios remain in a range consistent with a sellers’ market, but the rapid decline suggests markets are nearly balanced, with the potential to move into a buyers’ market range.”

“At $980,324, the average price fell 4.7 per cent from April and marked the first sub-million-dollar reading since November. Consistent with sales, declines were deepest in Chilliwack (-4.3 per cent) and the Fraser Valley (-6.7 per cent), although average prices eroded in most real estate board areas.”

From Bloomberg. “Asian junk bond investors are increasingly looking to smaller pockets of the market as a debt crisis among the biggest issuers, Chinese property developers, forces old playbooks to be rewritten. Chinese real estate notes had long been one of the world’s most-profitable trades. But a record string of defaults has ruined appetite and caused the nation’s junk notes to tumble almost 27% in 2022. Meanwhile, a worldwide debt rout has created a game of losing less.”

“‘The implications of the systemic default wave out of China property are grave,’ said Dhiraj Bajaj, head of Asia fixed income at Lombard Odier in Singapore. ‘The swift changes in policy, significant amounts of hidden debt by swathes of private companies, lack of debt resolution mechanisms when defaults happen, and inherent bias toward subordinating offshore bondholders won’t go unnoticed and unforgotten for perhaps a decade or two.'”

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This Post Has 88 Comments

  1. I had to cut this short as I’m going to be driving a lot today.

    ‘sellers have had to adjust their expectations and be prepared for a lower price than they were anticipating and even accept contingencies. ‘Now all of a sudden three weeks on the market and sellers are freaking out’

    How the mighty have fallen.

  3. ‘The swift changes in policy, significant amounts of hidden debt by swathes of private companies, lack of debt resolution mechanisms when defaults happen, and inherent bias toward subordinating offshore bondholders won’t go unnoticed and unforgotten for perhaps a decade or two.’

    So there is a downside to not paying yer bills, stiffing certain groups over others and a failed accounting system?

  4. ‘the mass layoff was the result of ‘significant operating losses and cash flow challenges’

    Losses? But sound lending?

  5. ‘For Pamela Grunstein, a real estate agent in Westchester County, New York, it felt like the housing market went from hot to cold in the span of only a week. The phone, which often had been ringing off the hook, she says, began to ring just a few times a day. Open houses had been attracting dozens of prospective buyers, and suddenly, some had zero traffic. Like Grunstein, many real estate agents across the country say they have seen housing market activity suddenly come to a halt’

    Might be some UHS layoffs too.

    1. Just a question.

      The support staff and back office workers @ realties and mortgage companies are paid a salary – so some will be laid off.

      For the actual real estate agents and mortgage brokers — they are paid commission – so dont they just not earn $s for the next XXX months. How long do agencies keep these folks on the books?

      2. Agent have to pay desk fees (that are pretty expensive) to their brokers. So a non performing agent has lots of outflow with nothing coming in. Plus on at least 1/2 of their commission goes to the broker right off the top. So the agent makes 30k commission, but the broker takes half that , plus the agent has to pay desk fees (to support the back office, marketing, etc) of whatever that take a good chunk of that 15k that’s left. Not selling houses rapidly leads to agents leaving of their own accord as their costs mount. The crappy, non hard working agents rapidly get flushed out when the bull market dies.

        1. It must have tough back in the day when mortgage investors expected a return on their investment, and Uncle Sam wasn’t around to put a floor under housing prices. The agents had to hook real fish with 20% down to enter the game.

          2. True, but the FHA were only there to guarantee mortgage paper made with prudent risk assessment, not decide how much housing should cost.

          3. Yeah, FHA was for “entry level housing”. My parents bought a shack in Orange County, CA in the early 60’s with an FHA loan. They paid $20K. I just looked it up on zildo. The Zestimate is 1,117,000

  6. ‘At $980,324, the average price fell 4.7 per cent from April and marked the first sub-million-dollar reading since November. Consistent with sales, declines were deepest in Chilliwack (-4.3 per cent) and the Fraser Valley (-6.7 per cent), although average prices eroded in most real estate board areas’

    The 2016 crash was more limited to not just Vancouver, but tiny slices where money laundering was most prevalent. Now BC is sinking like a turd in a well.

  9. “..Redfin agent Andrea Chopp said while so many buyers have been priced out of the market, she thinks it’s actually a great time to buy — if you can afford it…”

    Really Andrea?, A great time to buy? Your not sayin’ that you actually have to afford what you buy?

    The HBB and its readers hereby nominates Redfin agent Andrea Chopp for the Nobel Prize in economics.

    “…Chopp, an agent since 2015…”

    “…Chopp said. ‘Buyers right now have the most power they’ve had since I’ve been doing this….’”

    Andrea Chopp, you have been a REIConplex agent for a whole SEVEN years? That’s an eternity! Post a picture of yourself and show off that leathery face!

  11. “Redfin agent Andrea Chopp said while so many buyers have been priced out of the market, she thinks it’s actually a great time to buy — if you can afford it. ‘A lot of [homes] are just sitting now. There’s no competition. Where there might have been competition a few months ago, now you have interest rates, high gas prices, inflation and people have just stopped,’”

    Try not to catch yourself a falling knife.

    1. If there’s no competition than there’s no reason not to wait a bit and see what might happen then is there?

    1. From USA. dot gov:
      ——
      “The IRS issued three Economic Impact Payments during the coronavirus pandemic for people who were eligible:

      $1,200 in April 2020
      $600 in December 2020/January 2021
      $1,400 in March 2021”
      ——

      And on your graph, there isn’t a spike. There are THREE spikes:
      April 2020
      January 2021
      March 2021

      The correlation is dead on. Even the second spike is roughly half the height of the other two, correlating with the second check being about half the dollar amount.

    2. “the guvment showered the vast hordes of pukes with cash and check out where it now stands:”

      Did Katrina Victims Really Spend Their Relief Money on Gucci Bags and Massage Parlors?

      By Jordan Weissmann
      OCTOBER 31, 2012

      FEMA tried to speed up some of these payments to Katrina’s survivors by handing out $2,000 debit cards, meant to cover basics like food and clothes. But, as the GAO dryly noted, “debit cards were used for items or services such as a Caribbean vacation, professional football tickets, and adult entertainment, which do not appear to be necessary to satisfy disaster-related needs as defined by FEMA regulations.”

      Here are some of the more questionable purchases the GAO discovered:

      Note the massage parlor, third from the bottom. Clearly, there were problems with this aspect of the relief effort, either because a few people were scamming the government for money they didn’t really need or because they were simply making some dubious spending choices. (That said, I’m not sure I would begrudge anyone a post-Katrina beer). More questionable examples below.

      https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/10/did-katrina-victims-really-spend-their-relief-money-on-gucci-bags-and-massage-parlors/264377/

      1. This time was no different. I saw queues outside of Gucci stores that were 20-30 people long.

        1. If it was in 2020 and 2021, that was probably COVID social distancing. There were long lines outside of Trader Joe’s too. There are still long lines outside of the luxury stores. They say it’s because of social distancing, but it’s really to cut down on looters who hunt in packs.

    3. The *rate of* [downward] change is truly breathtaking.

      (And the pass thru effects of inflation have just begun!)

      Me thinks a large fraction of all households will [are] living off of their HELOC checkbooks and credit cards.

      Good luck for those households who over-extended themselves trying to service mortgage debt for grossly overpriced R/E.

      Mr Banker: You will need to order a new truckload of kneepads for your loan owners *way* before Christmas this year.

      1. It was the same in 2008 too. California was running on refi cash and not much else. And this recession’s layoffs are just barely getting started.

    4. Don’t forget the extra $600 a week in unemployment bennies.

      It was party time, until they took the punch bowl away.

      2. and rent moratoriums. Doubling your income and cutting your major expense to zero certainly helps to save money. Living in Uncle Sugar’s basement.

      3. Here in Utah the expanded child tax credits sent monthly boosted household income by hundreds or thousands per month. Then it all disappeared.

  13. Might the cryptocollapse be an unofficial component of the Fed’s inflation crack down? Letting the HODLers take the hit for the sake of reining in inflation seems preferable to driving up interest rates to a level that results in a recession.

    1. Cryptocurrency
      Bitcoin briefly drops below $20,000 again as pressure continues to mount on crypto market
      Published Wed, Jun 29 2022 7:31 AM EDT
      Updated 2 Hours Ago
      Arjun Kharpal
      Key Points
      – Bitcoin fell below $20,000 on Wednesday as a number of factors from macroeconomic worries to issues with cryptocurrency companies continue to weigh on the market.
      – Inflation continues to remain high while central banks are also aiming for further rate hikes, sparking fears of a recession in the U.S. and elsewhere.
      – The crash in prices over the last few weeks, which has wiped off billions of dollars of value from the cryptocurrency market has exposed major liquidity issues at firms across the industry.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/29/bitcoin-btc-briefly-drops-below-20000-as-pressure-mounts-on-crypto.html

      1. ‘“A narrative that could well play out for the rest of the year and beyond is guiding bitcoin lower today, one of looming recession and mushrooming levels of inflation,” analysts at cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex said in a note on Wednesday.

        Inflation continues to remain high while central banks are also aiming for further rate hikes, sparking fears of a recession in the U.S. and elsewhere.’

        CR8R

        1. CR8R warning:

          Bitcoin/USD Coin Metrics BTC.CM
          RT Quote | USD
          Last | 3:15 AM EDT
          19,352.40
          quote price arrow down
          -774.56 (-3.85%)

      2. $20K is clearly the middle of the rope in the tug-of-war between the FOMO hopiums and the stop-loss sell orders. The hopiums are barely hanging on, at the moment. And Tether hasn’t even blown up yet.

        1. What is this garbage, anyway? I haven’t heard a single argument which makes sense for why crypto even exists, other than to fleece a bunch of suckers.

          1. It was designed to be the currency of the dark net, and I’m pretty sure our intelligence agencies still use it to support black ops financing and logistics.

          2. “…I’m pretty sure our intelligence agencies still use it to support black ops financing and logistics….”

            And a dream come true for organized crime syndicates, large and small.

            According to coinmarketcap, there are 20,061 cryptos in existence as of today.

            I wouldn’t be surprised one iota if ‘black’ agencies and organized crime have stood up their own cryptos, especially if they build in a back door to the blockchain engine that allows them to trace transactions.

          3. Here is the argument that makes theoretical sense, but not practical sense: Crypto, and Bitcoin in particular, was tacitly billed as the next world currency. That is, it was supposed to be so fast, so frictionless, so ideal, and so efficient in its use cases and border crossings, that other countries, one by one, would see the error of their ways, give up their flawed fiat, and revalue all of their assets and wealth in Bitcoin. (Much like how European countries gave up their currencies for the Euro.) Eventually there would be one decentralized world currency not controlled by The People, not any government. Of course, Bitcoin has a hard cap of 21 million. So take all the wealth in the world, divide it by 21 million, and that’s how much one bitcoin would be worth, and that value would only increase as wealth grew globally and the number of Bitcoin remained the same.

            That’s why bitcoin maximalists predicted million-dollar bitcoin, and why they were willing to get in on the ground floor at $40K… $50K… $60K, like the greater fools they are. For, of course, their kum-bai-ah one-currency world is a dream straight out of Woodstock. Global governments will never give up their fiat, and I doubt that even the global populations will agree on one currency. I think that became apparent in 2017, which is why bitcoin dropped to $4000. It was only the shenanigans of Tether that started the party back up. Only this time, the hedgies and the pensions are saying No Thanks, and Tether can’t do it alone anymore. The suckers will be fleeced, eventually.

          5. “Much like how European countries gave up their currencies for the Euro.”

            Comparing regulated fiat currencies to unregulated cryptocurrencies is a bad analogy.

          6. Yes, that’s why the idea of widespread adoption breaks down. It might work for, say, Nigeria, but not in a major economic power. Notice that El Salvador’s Bukele, for all his bluster about Bitcoin, didn’t *dare* make a 100% adoption. He kept the dollar as a co-currency.

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          Markets
          First Mover Asia: How Traders Are Shorting Tether Stablecoins; Bitcoin Falls but Holds Above $20K
          By Shaurya Malwa, James Rubin
          AccessTimeIcon
          Jun 29, 2022 at 4:02 p.m. PDT
          Updated Jun 29, 2022 at 5:16 p.m. PDT
          …
          https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/06/29/first-mover-asia-how-traders-are-shorting-tether-stablecoins-bitcoin-falls-but-holds-above-20k/

          1. How far below $1.00 would Tether’s price have to go before it no longer met the stablecoin definition?

            “Good morning. Here’s what’s happening:

            Prices: Bitcoin and ether decline; other major cryptos in the red.

            Insights: Hedge funds are betting against USDT amid concerns about the stablecoin’s backing and systematic risks.”

          2. Is my perception that hedge funds are systematically blowing up the CryptoVerse off base?

          3. The Financial Times
            Three Arrows Capital
            Crypto hedge fund Three Arrows falls into liquidation
            Upheaval in digital asset market pushed investment group into crisis earlier this month
            Bitcoin logo
            Bitcoin, the most actively traded cryptocurrency, is down more than 50% this year
            Scott Chipolina in London yesterday

            Crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital has fallen into liquidation, becoming the latest high-profile victim of the credit crisis sweeping through the digital asset market.

            Teneo was appointed this week as “joint liquidators” of Three Arrows through a court order in the British Virgin Islands, according to a person familiar with the matter.

            The move to liquidate Three Arrows comes as tremors in the crypto market in recent weeks have intensified as global investors ditch speculative assets on concerns over slowing global growth and decisions by major central banks to sharply tighten monetary policy.

            Three Arrows, which is based in Singapore and registered in the British Virgin Islands, is among the best-known investors in the crypto sector. The group did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the appointment of liquidators, which was first reported by Sky News.

            Three Arrows earlier this month failed to meet demands from lenders to put up extra funds after its digital currency bets turned sour. Run by Su Zhu and his co-founder Kyle Davies, it was known for its levered bets on rising crypto prices. Zhu had pitched a “supercycle” thesis, in which increasing mainstream adoption meant prices would continue to climb without falling back into a near-term bear market.

            Bitcoin, the most actively traded cryptocurrency, is down more than 50 per cent this year. Meanwhile, the market value of the top 500 crypto tokens has slumped to less than $1tn from a high of $3.2tn in November.
            …

          4. The Financial Times
            Cryptocurrencies
            Crypto feels the shockwaves from its own ‘credit crisis’
            Fear, uncertainty and doubt grip market as big names struggle
            Logos for Terra Luna, Bitcoin, Blockfi and Celsius
            In the last week the price of bitcoin has held steady at around $20,000. But many wonder if the respite is temporary
            Joshua Oliver, Scott Chipolina and Kadhim Shubber in London
            June 24 2022

            The deflating bubble in digital assets has exposed a fragile system of credit and leverage in crypto akin to the credit crisis that enveloped the traditional finance sector in 2008.

            Since its inception, crypto enthusiasts have promised a future of vast personal fortunes and the foundations for a new and better financial system, dismissing critics who questioned its value and utility as spreading “FUD” — fear, uncertainty and doubt.

            But those emotions are now stalking the crypto industry as one by one, often-interlinked projects that locked up customers’ money face losses of millions of dollars and turn to the industry’s heavy hitters for rescue packages.

            “Fear is contagious. That’s true in any financial market . . . No one wants to be the last person without a chair when the music stops, so everyone is withdrawing money,” said Brett Harrison, president of crypto exchange FTX US.

            The price of bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, has fallen more than 70 per cent since its peak in November and the total value of crypto tokens has dropped from above $3tn to less than $900bn.

            As the market shrinks, the industry is creaking. A token called Luna and its sister Terra, a stablecoin that tried to use computer algorithms to keep its price steady, collapsed in May; crypto lender Celsius halted withdrawals earlier this month; and hedge fund Three Arrows Capital faced margin calls.

            In recent days, another lender, Voyager, has limited withdrawals while exchange Coinflex has frozen client funds. Trades and investments that appeared safe, liquid and profitable a few weeks ago have become perilous and impossible to exit. Investors are fearful that more dominoes are about to fall.

            At the heart of the boom has been the growth of decentralised finance, known as DeFi, a corner of the crypto world that claims to offer an alternative financial system without central decision-making authorities such as banks or exchanges. Instead, users can transfer, lend and borrow assets by using contracts that are defined in computer code. Changes are not made by chief executives but votes from those who own special governance tokens, often developer teams and early investors.

            The amount of capital circulating in DeFi projects had soared to nearly $230bn by late 2021, according to CryptoCompare data.

            In the last crypto boom, in 2017, buyers simply speculated on token prices. This time, small investors and some funds have also sought out high yields from lending and borrowing crypto assets.

            That appealed to both sophisticated crypto traders and to public-facing lending platforms such as Celsius, which took in customer deposits and paid out interest rates as high as 17 per cent.

            Investors could juice their returns by taking out multiple loans against the same collateral, a process called “recursive borrowing”. This freedom to recycle capital with little restraint led investors to stack up more and more yields in different DeFi projects, earning multiple interest rates at once.

            “As with the subprime crisis, it’s something really appealing in terms of yield and it looks like and is packaged like a risk-free financial product to ordinary people,” said Lennix Lai, director of financial markets at crypto exchange OKX.

            The financial gymnastics left huge towers of borrowing and theoretical value teetering on top of the same underlying assets. This kept going while crypto prices sailed higher. But then inflation, aggressive interest rate rises and geopolitical shockwaves from the war in Ukraine washed across financial markets.

            “It all worked during the bull run where the prices of all the assets went up only. When the prices started going down, a lot of people wanted to take their assets out,” said Marcin Miłosierny, head of market research at crypto hedge fund ARK36.

            As token values plummeted, the lenders called in their loans. The process has led to the removal of more than 60 per cent, or $124bn, of the total value locked on the ethereum blockchain since mid-May in a “Great Deleveraging”, according to research firm Glassnode.
            …

  14. Are you buying stocks, even though Mr Market is still assuming the crash position?

    1. Markets
      Dow opens slightly higher Wednesday as Wall Street attempts to regain its footing
      Published Tue, Jun 28 2022 6:02 PM EDT
      Updated 3 Min Ago
      Tanaya Macheel
      Samantha Subin
      Wall Street set for a muted open ahead of U.S. GDP report

      The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly Wednesday, after the major averages made a failed attempt at a bounce in the previous session, and as the market prepares to close out the worst first half of the year since 1970.

      The 30-stock Dow climbed 75 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 eked out a slight gain, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid 0.2%.

      Investors are still searching for the bottom of a vicious market sell-off as the second quarter comes to an end Thursday. Concern over a slowing economy and aggressive rate hikes consumed much of the first half of 2022, and fears of a recession fears are rising.

      “We expect significant volatility this summer, with ‘face-ripping’ short-covering rallies followed by economically-inspired market slumps,” Wells Fargo senior equity analyst Christopher Harvey said in a note Wednesday. “While a much anticipated market ‘washout’ could catalyze a more sustained move higher, we think the market will not sustain a rally until it believes the Fed will toggle from a 50-75bp tightening to a more mundane 25bp increase.”
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/28/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

  15. The Democrats are into the creation of unity.
    Unity of elementary education with transgender
    education and grooming.
    But, there is a little bit of push back on the idea of having federal park and recreational land used for on demand abortions. . But just think , you could have a nice day at the park , looking at the bears, than get your on demand abortion the same day.
    How can you not be more practical with that unity of idea. Joe Biden and the Democrats are great at unity.

    1. “… a young miner working in Yukon’s Eureka Creek, south of Dawson City, was digging up muck using a front end loader when he struck something. He stopped and called his boss who went to see him right away.”

      Very thoughtful decision for a heavy equipment operator. Hope he gets a bonus added to his next paycheck!

  17. What is wrong with people, don’t they understand
    what the most important issues of the day are……

    Transgender grooming in educational system
    Borders not being secure in US
    Money to Ukraine, and securing of their borders
    Censoring the free flow on information
    abortion on demand
    A shot in every arm of a expiermental vaccine
    Withdraw fuel, you can just buy a 60 thousand dollar electric car
    Food shortages and inflation on food and fuel isn’t Bidens fault, stop complaining.
    Climate Change is the greatest threat the world has ever known, in spite of no concrete proof of it.
    The World should lock down over Pandemics, but don’t lock down those bio labs that create the gain of function pandemics.
    Biden should turn over power to the Corrupt WHO to determine response to any declared Pandemic, that would supersede any constitutional protections of any sovereign Country.
    Printing money will solve inflation.
    Take the guns
    Criminals should be released, soaring crime rates is not a issue
    Those Christians and Republicans are insurrectionists that need to be arrested. The unvaccinated need to go to camps.
    Vaccines should be mandated, because Biden says they are safe and effective.
    You should lose your job if you don’t do what Biden wants.
    Peaceful protestors should be able to burn, loot and destroy over Democratic demands.
    Don’t question rigged elections
    Bill Gates knows what Pandemics are going to hit, way ahead of time, and even finances trial runs way ahead of time , and knows the exact bug that will be the Pandemic.
    On and on

    You better get your priorities straight on the One World Order Agenda , because Private Party Corporations should be able to rule the world and do what they want with 71/2 billion people. How dare you question psychopaths who want to rule the world, and kill you or enslave you.

    1. I blame the Repubs as much as the Dems. How inept is the Republican Party to continue getting punked by the Dems for years on end? The truth is that they are complicit. Otherwise, they would have never let the justice dept and everything else become the strongarm of the globalists.

      Getting back to this woman – somebody paid her a huge sum of money somewhere. Start looking into her bank accounts. Watch where her employment leads her. The IRS could find the money and put her in prison for tax fraud. She’s a paid liar, and it takes a huge payment to make somebody do this.

  20. Dallas Housing Market Update 6/28

    Jun 29, 2022 Once again we are seeing a LARGE number of price reductions across Dallas County as we head into this week. Interest rates and external economic factors have not changed over the past week, so no surprise we are seeing more of the same. Inventory numbers are up going into the 4th of July weekend and we are in fact seeing units go under contract very quickly.

    My advice to sellers considering listing their property:
    1) Be realistic in pricing expectations. If the property is priced correctly, you’re more likely to capture multiple offers at or above ask. Though not like we were seeing a few months back.
    2) Make sure your marketing plan is solid (ask your agent or prospective agents in detail what they plan on doing to get the most eyes on your property) A couple iPhone photos and no staging won’t cut it anymore.
    3) Handle small deferred maintenance or “easy” fixes before taking the property live. With more options and higher interest rates, buyers are getting pickier. Little fixes can go a long way.
    4) BE PATIENT! If you have the right team working on your behalf and price it fairly, the property will sell. Just maybe not in 24 hours or a weekend. Trust the process!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qMsNWP8Cd4

    6:19. Talks about the past weeks new listings and price slashin in the first minute.

    1. and then proceeds to talk about how prices will rise over the next 6 to 12 months EVEN AS INTEREST RATES CONTINUE TO RISE. Says that a house worth a million at 3% is still worth at least the same as rates hit 7 and 8%.

      hahaahahahahahaa
      clearly doesn’t understand how interest rates work.
      too bad, up until that point it wasn’t a bad video.

      1. It’s side effect of watching UHS videos. (Some of them are loan officers, etc). One thing I wish they wouldn’t do: go over interest rates. We don’t need to see that on every dam video.

  21. Frisco (TX) Real Estate Market Update June 2022
    Jun 28, 2022 Attention, home buyers! Housing inventory is up 48% from the previous month, with a slight sales price decrease. It’s the perfect buying opportunity!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1bmyV96R7c

    55 seconds. Price graphic is at 40 seconds. This is one of those automated videos.

  23. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/demand-destruction-emerges-americans-cancel-road-trips

    Demand Destruction Emerges As Americans Cancel Road Trips

    Gasoline demand destruction is underway as most fuel stations in the country average around $5 a gallon for regular (87 octane). New data finds that high gas prices deter some Americans (most likely the working poor) from road trips this summer.

    Conference Board’s data found Americans who planned a road trip in the next six months fell to 22.7% in June. Only 36% intend to take a vacation within the next six months, the lowest level in the dataset going back four decades.

    Slumping gas demand growth is a sign that higher prices are beginning to alter the spending patterns of consumers in what seasonally should be a busy travel season.

    “Demand is currently below seasonal averages, but the key thing for crude is that it is still growing,” Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management, told Bloomberg.

    A four-week moving average of implied gas demand dropped to about 9 million barrels daily, or 600,000 barrels less than the 2015-19 average.

    Ed Moya, a senior market analyst at Oanda, said, “given where fuel costs are and how expensive dining out has become … everything is becoming too pricey in America, and lower and middle-income households are feeling the pinch.”

    We agree with Moya that low to middle-tier consumers have maxed out their credit cards and drained savings, barely able to survive the inflation storm — which has forced them to change spending habits dramatically.

    The big concern during this summer’s travel season is that energy prices could still go much higher. A new report from CNN said the White House is quietly analyzing the worst-case scenario of crude oil at $200 per barrel.

    We have outlined before that refinery capacity bottlenecks are the main driver for higher fuel prices (not Russia).

    Supply fundamentals remain tight as limited refinery capacity will persist. A genuine market rebalancing will only happen through demand destruction with higher prices.

    1. “We have outlined before that refinery capacity bottlenecks are the main driver for higher fuel prices (not Russia).”

      …psst, Brandon?

    2. A genuine market rebalancing will only happen through demand destruction with higher prices.

      In other words: no more beaters, as their drivers simply cannot afford to fuel them.

      As I’ve mentioned, I’ll be flying later this summer. Ticket prices are high, high, high. That should also create some demand destruction. My original flight choice has already been cancelled and I was reassigned to a new flight. Will that one also be cancelled?

    3. Only 36% intend to take a vacation within the next six months, the lowest level in the dataset going back four decades.

      I wasn’t even a teenager then. We’re goin’ to the wayback.

    4. Using government intervention to reduce gasoline prices, through tax reduction, and stimulate gasoline demand, through handing outore free money, both work in favor of stimulating gasoline consumption, against a backdrop of constrained supply.

      Sounds to me like a great recipe for higher gasoline and, through derived demand, oil prices to come! Just saying…

  24. https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/shocking-poll-finds-83-americans-cut-back-spending-economy-careens-towards-crisis

    83% Of Americans Cut Back On Spending As Economy Careens Towards Crisis , Poll Finds
    Tyler Durden’s Photo
    BY TYLER DURDEN
    WEDNESDAY, JUN 29, 2022 – 11:25 AM
    US consumer sentiment and confidence have deteriorated for households amid slowing economic growth and persistently high inflation that suggests stagflation.

    A new study lends credibility to the current souring macroeconomic backdrop of high inflation and shortages, altering consumer lifestyles, behavior changes, and expectations, all of which show “Bidenomics” could be one greatest failures since the Carter administration of 1977-1981.

    Provident Bank, based in New Jersey, found that 83% of respondents slashed personal spending due to soaring prices of food and gasoline, with 23% indicating they had to make “drastic changes” to their spending for financial survival.

    High inflation plus a rapidly slowing economy could be the emergence of stagflation, a dangerous economic environment that the Federal Reserve doesn’t want to see. Already, the souring environment is altering lifestyle patterns and expectations of the vast majority of Americans struggling to survive Biden’s “Build Back Better” economy.

    Suppose the consumer is tapping out under the weight of inflation, maxed out credit cards, collapsed personal savings, and negative real wage growth. In that case, it is an ominous sign the consumer-driven economy is careening toward a crisis.

    Even more shocking is how a very underreported tidal wave of evictions could be imminent as millions of Americans can’t pay rent.

    History doesn’t repeat itself, but it certainly rhymes with the stagflation era of the 1970s. Back then, former President Jimmy Carter was a one-term president.

    According to the survey results of 600 adults, 10.5% of respondents eliminated all non-essential purchases, and nearly 72% said they made at least some changes to personal travel habits.

    While some consumers have cut back on some non-essential spending, like dining out and unnecessary travel, others reported much more drastic changes such as skipping meals, conserving water, and eliminating meat from their diets. People are feeling an immense amount of financial pressure right now. Unfortunately, this is not surprising after the Labor Department reported earlier this month that the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) hit a 40-year high in May. — Provident Bank

    Respondents said rising prices of groceries and gas had put the most significant dent in their pocketbooks. According to the survey results, 53% said they now spend between $101 – $500 more per month on groceries, and 32% spend between $101 – $250 more on gas. They also said that skyrocketing prices of baby products, meat, utilities, household goods, milk, and alcohol have led to economic discomfort.

    There’s no question this survey outlines consumers are being squeezed by negative real wage growth and inflation at 40-year highs. Many folks have maxed out credit cards and drained personal savings. Much of this economic despair has sent consumer sentiment crashing:

    Suppose the consumer is tapping out under the weight of inflation, maxed out credit cards, collapsed personal savings, and negative real wage growth. In that case, it is an ominous sign the consumer-driven economy is careening toward a crisis.

    Even more shocking is how a very underreported tidal wave of evictions could be imminent as millions of Americans can’t pay rent.

    History doesn’t repeat itself, but it certainly rhymes with the stagflation era of the 1970s. Back then, former President Jimmy Carter was a one-term president.

  25. – Colorado Springs, CO MSA update:

    https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Colorado-Springs_CO
    for sale = 2,349 Homes
    price reduced = 597 Homes = 25.4%

    https://twitter.com/NikhaarShah/status/1542244132688728068?cxt=HHwWiMC83cK3k-cqAAAA
    Nik Shah @NikhaarShah
    Austin, Boise & Phoenix saw the biggest YoY increase in homes for sale last week.
    “% change in active listings, YoY, June 2022”
    [Colorado Springs made the top 10 list at #4: +117%]
    [See chart]
    2:30 PM · Jun 29, 2022·OneUp App

    https://twitter.com/NikhaarShah/status/1542176829955620865?cxt=HHwWgoC-pf7p9OYqAAAA
    Nik Shah @NikhaarShah
    Whoa there, Seattle!
    12x rise in price cuts by home sellers, as compared to last year.
    “% change in price reductions, YoY, June, 2022”
    [Colorado Springs made the top 10 list at #10: +330%]
    [See chart]
    10:03 AM · Jun 29, 2022·OneUp App

    – Re: housing bubble 1.0:
    “It’s déjà vu all over again.” – Yogi Berra

  26. Milton Friedman Schools Young Idealist (Stanford)

    Mar 15, 2011 In this classic footage from a Stanford University lecture, Professor Friedman takes Q&A after his talk “The Role of Government in a Free Society.” In this exchange, a young man describes poverty as a “market failure.” Friedman, in characteristic fashion, shows otherwise. Though this was recorded around 1979, the exchange is timeless.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0E-URmNAa5o

    5 minutes.

    2. Many of these young men have lengthy felony rap sheets well before they’re old enough for their first employment.

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