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Many Home Buyers Continue To Sit On The Sidelines In California

A report from the California used house salespeople. “California home sales remained on a downward trend for the seventh consecutive month in November as prospective buyers continued to wait out the market, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.”

“November’s sales figure was down 3.9 percent from the revised 397,060 level in October and down 13.4 percent from home sales in November 2017 of a revised 440,340. November marked the fourth month in a row that sales were below 400,000.”

“The statewide median home price declined to $554,760 in November. The November statewide median price was down 3.0 percent from $572,000 in October and up 1.5 percent from a revised $546,820 in November 2017.”

“‘The slowdown in price growth is occurring throughout the state, including regions that have strong economic fundamentals such as the San Francisco Bay Area,’ said C.A.R. Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. ‘The deceleration in home price appreciation should be a welcome sign for potential buyers who have struggled in recent years against low inventory and rapidly rising home prices.'”

“On a regionwide, non-seasonally adjusted basis, sales dropped double-digits on a year-over-year basis in the San Francisco Bay Area, the Central Coast, and the Southern California regions, while the Central Valley region experienced a relatively small sales dip of 3.9 percent.”

“Forty-one of the 51 counties reported by C.A.R. posted a sales decline in November with an average year-over-year sales decline of 16.8 percent. Twenty-six counties recorded double-digit sales drops on an annual basis.”

“Sales for the San Francisco Bay Area as a whole fell 11.5 percent from a year ago. All nine Bay Area counties recorded annual sales decreases, with Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Sonoma counties posting double-digit annual declines.”

“The Los Angeles Metro region posted a year-over-year sales drop of 10.1 percent, as home sales fell 11.2 percent in Los Angeles County and 14.4 percent in Orange County. Home sales in the Inland Empire decreased 6.7 percent from a year ago as Riverside and San Bernardino counties posted annual sales declines of 9.0 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively. “

“Home prices in the San Francisco Bay Area are no longer climbing at the double-digit pace that occurred throughout much of this year. On a year-over-year basis, the Bay Area median price ticked up 0.6 percent from November 2017. While home prices in Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties continued to remain above $1 million, all but San Mateo County recorded a year-over-year price decline.”

“Statewide active listings rose for the eighth consecutive month after nearly three straight years of declines, increasing 31 percent from the previous year. November’s listings increase was the largest since April 2014. “

From the Business Journal. “While the state housing market mostly sputtered in November, according to the California Association of Realtors, the picture was a little more mixed in the Central Valley.”

“The median home price in Fresno County for November was $265,750, down 2.3 percent from October but up 0.7 percent a year ago. Sales activity in Fresno was down 6.4 percent for November compared to October, and down 2.9 percent from a year ago.”

“The median price in Kings County last month was $222,000, down 3.1 percent from October and also down 3.5 percent a year ago. Sales activity was down 3.4 percent for the month, but up 6.3 percent a year ago.”

“Statewide home sales in November were down 3.9 percent from October, and also down 13.4 percent from November 2017. ‘While many home buyers continue to sit on the sidelines, serious buyers who are in a position to purchase should take advantage of this window of opportunity,’ said C.A.R. President Jared Martin. ‘Now that interest rates have pulled back, home prices have tapered, and inventory has improved, home buyers’ prospects of getting into a home are more positive.'”

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This Post Has 35 Comments

  1. ‘While home prices in Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties continued to remain above $1 million, all but San Mateo County recorded a year-over-year price decline’

    There’s some tables at the bottom of the UHS link. Lots of minus signs.

    Santa Barbara, oh dear…

      1. Floods, fires, low paying jobs, illegals, traffic, too many tourists on weekends…. the gem is not as nice as it used to be.

      2. Santa Barbara is waaay better than Los Angeles or San Francisco by a long shot, IMHO. I was just there in October, no street people, needles or feces. The downtown in San Jose is crawling with street people these days!

  3. “Statewide home sales in November were down 3.9 percent from October, and also down 13.4 percent from November 2017. ‘While many home buyers continue to sit on the sidelines, serious buyers who are in a position to purchase should take advantage of this window of opportunity,’ said C.A.R. President Jared Martin. ‘Now that interest rates have pulled back, home prices have tapered, and inventory has improved, home buyers’ prospects of getting into a home are more positive.’”

    Jared your speech was very inspiring. I feel so honored to have wasted 30 seconds of my life hearing your “expert” opinion of how NOW is the time to buy into the falling RE market. How about next time keep this trash off the MSM, go roast some marshmallows over a trash can fire with your compadre realtor friends. I am sure they will be very happy to listen to your babble.

  4. Take advantage of the window of opportunity. Shouldn’t last more than 4 years but GET IN NOW! before prices go down. Uh oh no, I mean skyrocket back up.

    Wow, that was a close one!

    Unbelievable.

  6. ‘The deceleration in home price appreciation should be a welcome sign for potential buyers who have struggled in recent years against low inventory and rapidly rising home prices.’

    Try not to catch yourself a falling knife. Try to not get stucco with an underwater mortgage.

  7. Do you consider yourself ‘dumb money’ or ‘smart money’?

    Related fact: According to official dating, by October 2008 the U.S. economy had already been in a recession for ten months. (It started in December 2007.)

    The ‘smart money’ is the most bearish on stocks since 2008, with ‘recession coming,’ BofA survey finds
    By Chris Matthews
    Published: Dec 18, 2018 1:49 p.m. ET
    53% of institutional investors surveyed see global economy deteriorating over next 12 months
    Professional investors are increasingly bearish

    Professional money managers have turned sharply bearish in their outlook for the stock market and the economy, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s December survey of more than 240 professional investors around the globe.

    53% of those surveyed see the global economy deteriorating over the next twelve months, up from 44% in November, the highest share of those surveyed since Oct. 2008.
    …

  8. On a year-over-year basis, the Bay Area median price ticked up 0.6 percent from November 2017.

    Wow this bubble is bursting faster than last one. I wasn’t expecting this until spring 2019

    1. Well the good numbers are month-on-month, for instance -5.6% for the San Francisco Bay Area. On an annualized basis, that is a 50% rate of decline. In colloquial terms, San Francisco Bay Area home prices are dropping faster than a turd in a well.

      2. There is seasonality in Bay Area pricing. So year over year is the correct comparison. It does mean it takes a while to really see the top on the other hand the decline is going to be years long so you have time.

  9. It’s tempting to postpone further gasoline purchases until prices stop falling.

    The Financial Times
    Oil
    Oil prices slide on supply and growth concerns
    Brent crude tumbles 5.6% and WTI is down 7.3% in volatile trading
    Anjli Raval in London 9 hours ago

    Oil prices tumbled more than 5 per cent in volatile trading on Tuesday as planned production curbs by global producers, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, failed to allay concerns about oversupply stoked by swelling US shale output.

    Fears about weaker oil demand amid a potential slowdown in the global economy have also added to worries about how effective the supply cuts agreed earlier this month will be.

    The fall in oil comes amid broader pressure on global equities markets due to persistent worries over how the US-China trade war could hit economic growth.

    “The effect of the announced production cuts after Opec’s meeting [earlier this month] has evaporated entirely,” said Carsten Fritsch at Commerzbank. “Prices are continuing to nose-dive.”

    Brent crude, the international benchmark, declined 5.6 per cent to settle at $56.26 a barrel in its third straight day of declines. The rout was more severe in US benchmark West Texas Intermediate, which settled 7.3 per cent lower at $46.26, the lowest level since August 2017.
    …

    1. Shortage?

      The Wall Street Journal
      Oil Prices Pause After Rout
      Brent crude and WTI futures stabilize, the day after reaching their lowest levels in 15 months
      By Christopher Alessi
      Dec. 19, 2018 6:20 a.m. ET

      • Oil prices stabilized Wednesday, a day after the leading benchmarks had plummeted to their lowest levels in over a year.

      • Brent crude, the global benchmark, was trading up 0.5% at $56.56 a barrel on London’s Intercontinental Exchange .

      • West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. standard, were up 0.2% at $46.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

      HIGHLIGHTS

      Price Plunge: Brent on Tuesday closed down 5.6%, while WTI closed down more than 7%. The declines extended a price rout that has seen Brent lose nearly 35% and WTI nearly 40% since reaching four-year highs at the start of October.

      “These are their lowest levels in roughly 15 months,” analysts at Commerzbank wrote in a note Wednesday. “The above-average trading volumes point to selling via the futures market [and] the price falls below previous lows are likely to have triggered further selling by speculators,” they said.
      …

      1. If you listen closely, you can hear the sound of ABQ Dan’s disconsolate sobbing borne on the wind from Crow Mountain.

        1. I can’t wait to get over to Costco this evening to purchase petrol for considerably less than $3/gallon.

    1. “The two-year savings for a student taking 12 units a semester would be $2,208.” In other words, tuition is actually pretty minimal.

      BTW, CA Community Colleges used to charge no tuition. IIRC, that changed during one of their budget crises. Meaning it’ll probably change back during their next budget crisis, LOL

  13. Asking a real estate agent if now is a good time to buy a house is like asking a barber if you need a haircut today. Do you really think the answer would be “No” ??!!

      1. When the NAR trotted out it’s “Now is the best time to buy AND sell!” slogan back when Housing Bubble 1.0 was bursting, that was pretty much a signal that the bottom was about to drop out of the market.

    2. “November existing-home sales in the Northeast increased 7.2 percent to an annual rate of 740,000, 2.6 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $291,400, which is up 6.5 percent from November 2017.

      In the Midwest, existing-home sales rose 5.5 percent from last month to an annual rate of 1.34 million in November, down 4.3 percent from a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $199,100, up 2.6 percent from last year.

      Existing-home sales in the South grew 2.3 percent to an annual rate of 2.20 million in November, down 5.6 percent from last year. The median price in the South was $223,600, up 3.2 percent from a year ago.

      Existing-home sales in the West declined 6.3 percent to an annual rate of 1.04 million in November, 15.4 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $380,600 up 1.8 percent from November 2017.”

      Down YOY

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