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Even The Denialists Have Finally Come Around

A report from Money Wise. “Austin real estate agent Lilly Rockwell says the market has already started favoring buyers and that she just helped a client negotiate a purchase for under list price. ‘It’s fabulous. Finally. Tons of choices, very little competition,’ she tweeted Thursday. Buying down your mortgage rate means making an upfront payment to your lender to reduce your long-term interest costs, and seller credits can help cash-light buyers take advantage of the option. ‘I plan to deploy this strategy myself on a listing I have coming up next week and provide some rate buydown information to just proactively address concerns about interest rates,’ Rockwell said. ‘It’s crazy how quickly the tables have turned!'”

From the Naples used shack sales people in Florida. “During a meeting to review the May 2022 Market Report by the Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR®), which tracks home listings and sales within Collier County (excluding Marco Island), long-time Naples broker Bill Coffey, Broker Manager of Amerivest Realty Naples, remarked that, ‘May had the highest number of new listings than any May in the last three years.’ Fellow brokers who also analyzed the May report are pleased with this trend as it will lead to more options for summer buyers. New listings during May pushed the inventory of homes for sale up 58.6 percent to 2,046 properties compared to 1,290 properties in May 2021.”

“‘Inventory has been rising since December,’ said Jeff Jones, Broker at Keller Williams Naples. “By the end of May, our inventory in Naples has nearly doubled since the same time a year ago. And if you include the 889 homes that had a price reduction in May to this inventory mix, then we’re in good shape heading into summer. Price reductions are basically like new listings because the home’s new price point becomes a new opportunity to a larger pool of buyers.'”

The Greeley Tribune in Colorado. “The housing market moderation, likely caused by interest-rate increases and general economic uncertainty, has begun to show in Northern Colorado and the Boulder Valley. May home sales, as reported by the multiple listing agency in the region, show the quantity of homes sold on par with April — either slightly up or slightly down — but in all but one community, median prices are down.”

“Greeley/Evans saw 144 sales, down from 196 the prior month. The median sale price was $450,000, down from $452,800 the month prior, but 21.6% over the median in May 2021 of $370,000. Sales in Fort Collins were up in May over April, 241 compared with 216. The May median dropped slightly, to $619,900, from the $620,500 recorded in April. It was 16.1% above the May 2021 median of $533,718. Boulder, which has led the region in home prices, saw 53 homes sell in May, down from 57 in April. The median price dropped from $1.675 million in April to $1.508 million in May, which is still 22.7% higher than the May 2021 median of $1.229 million.”

“Estes Park, a tight-knit resort community, saw 26 sales in May, up from 21 in April. The median sales price of $850,000 was above the $763,500 median of April and 29% better than the $659,000 median of a year ago May. Longmont, which recently reached the 100,000 population mark, saw 87 sales in May, up from 71 in April. The median price dropped to $630,000 from $663,000, but 13.5% up from the $555,000 recorded in May 2021.”

“Finally, Loveland/Berthoud sales were up over April, 218 versus 176. The median price dropped to $560,000 in May from $596,500 in April. This year’s May median was 12% above the $500,000 set in May 2021.”

From WDBJ on Virginia. “Realtors in the New River Valley say the housing market is starting to cool off. Some homes that would’ve gotten up to 10 offers a year ago, are only seeing one to three now.  ‘During the pandemic, there was unprecedented buyer demand and we think that that was pretty much fueled by the historically low interest rates,’ President of the New River Valley Association of Realtors Kelly Griffin said. ‘This most recent rate hike, I think the one in mid-June, was really the one that has cooled everything down considerably.'”

From Mansion Global. “During the four weeks in June, an average 6.5% of homes for sale each week had a price drop, a record high since Redfin began to track the data in 2015. Redfin data show that pending home sales in the previous four weeks were down 13% from the same period last year, the largest decline since May 2020. ‘Homebuyers are worried about interest rates, having to go back to the office, getting laid off and wondering if they can get a better deal by waiting out the market,’ said Caroline Loudenback, a real estate agent at Redfin Seattle.”

From USA Today. “‘The unusual market conditions of the pandemic have come to an end,’ Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors told USA TODAY. ‘The sellers just need to understand that whatever last year’s price was, they cannot just boost up prices by another 20%. They would not find buyers using that philosophy.'”

“In data Redfin shared exclusively with USA TODAY, sellers on average, dropped their price by 4.7% nationally last week.. In more than 80% of the metros tracked by Redfin, the price drops were in the  4 to 6% range.  Total existing-home sales, which includes completed transactions for single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell by 9% year-over-year in May. Pending home sales, a future-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, dropped 14% in May, according to NAR’s Pending Homes Sales Index.”

“Nationally, the inventory of homes actively for sale on a typical day in June increased by 19% over the past year, the largest increase in inventory in the data history, according to a report by Realtor.com. That translated to 98,000 more homes actively for sale on a typical day in June compared to the previous year. Chad Snow, a real estate agent from Salt Lake City, Utah, says he’s seen a strong rise in inventory over the last eight weeks.”

“There were 6,367 active listings this May compared to 5,031 last May. Nearly half (48%) of homes for sale in Provo, Utah and Tacoma, Washington, had a price drop in May, according to a Redfin analysis. In Salt Lake City, Utah, which saw a 56% appreciation in home prices in two years, from $356,000 in May 2020 to $556,000 in 2022, for instance, 46% of the homes listed this year reduced their asking price, says Snow.”

“‘When the interest rates got up over 5%, the buyers kind of stopped,’ he says. ‘I feel like a number of those price drops were sellers and agents that thought the market was still hot or hotter than it than it is.'”

From Bloomberg on New York. “An elegant 5,500 square-foot home set on nearly four acres in Bridgehampton came onto the market almost exactly a year ago with an asking price of $21.9 million. After what Zillow shows is three price cuts, it’s down to $17 million and is still unsold. One hamlet over, in Wainscott, a massive 10,000 square foot mansion on about 14 acres overlooking Georgica Pond hit the market last year for $70 million; its price was subsequently cut more than 14%, to just under $60 million. It also has yet to find a buyer.”

“The Hamptons Covid-era buying frenzy is a thing of the past. ‘The market is transitioning,’ says Jonathan Miller, president and chief executive officer of the appraiser Miller Samuel. ‘What’s happening in the Hamptons seems to be happening throughout the country.'”

“Even the richest buyers have tended to take out loans. ‘I find it’s at almost every price level,’ says Corcoran broker Gary DePersia. ‘After the contract is signed, no matter what, they’re getting financing. They don’t want to take the money out from where they have it to buy a house.’ And so the end of cheap mortgages has, brokers say, begun to impact the spending habits of those who don’t need one.”

“The market could slide further before it stabilizes, since sellers have yet to recognize buyers’ new reality. ‘The inventory doesn’t match buyers’ expectations,’ says Douglas Elliman broker Martha Gundersen. ‘Let’s say they were getting a 2% mortgage, now they’re getting 5%, and there’s a disconnect for what their monthly costs will be.’ Sellers, meanwhile, ‘are still looking at the most expensive’ comparisons when they go to price their house. Inventory, meanwhile, is set to rise. “There will be more [houses] coming onto the market, and as more comes on, [sellers] will have to take a price concession,’ says Paul Brennan, a broker with Douglas Elliman.”

The LA Daily News in California. “In this changing market, clever math and creative solutions can help get things moving.  Literally. If you’ve had your house listed for sale recently, after the increase in interest rates, the decrease in demand, the rising gas prices, inflation, and threat of a recession, you know things have changed. You are not the sellers of six months ago, calling all the shots, juggling multiple offers, negotiating a free rent back for two months while you make all the improvements to your next home, wondering what you’ll do with all the extra money you’ll have since you received offers tens of thousands above your asking price.”

“Oh no, that ship has sailed, at least for now. You might want to huddle up with your agent and look back at the one or two offers you did receive, which were probably lower than your list price. Sharpen your pencil and see how you can make the numbers work, call the buyers’ agents and see if they’re still interested. They probably have tried a few times to make a deal and many not have found a seller they can work with. You never know! They’re probably in the same boat with you, riding the market down, ever so slowly.”

“Get with your agent and go back to the house you wanted to buy and reopen negotiations with those sellers.  If they are still on the market, maybe they’ve already reduced their price and may be willing to give it another try with you, maybe even at a lower price than the last try. Remember, you’re all in the same boat, riding the same market, responding to the same conditions.  See if they will come down by an amount commensurate with the lower price you might be accepting.”

The Globe and Mail. “Some feared Canada’s banking regulator would put the smackdown on home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) in its long-anticipated regulatory update on Tuesday. After all, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada (FCAC) and the Bank of Canada have been warning about HELOC overborrowing for years. Instead, OSFI put that fear to bed. OSFI did make one key change, however. It limited the readvanceability of readvanceable mortgages – and that’s going to force some borrowers to make adjustments.”

“Effective late 2023, OSFI’s new rules will prohibit this reborrowing on readvanceable mortgage portions that exceed 65 per cent of your home value. Clearly, this is far from a catastrophic curtailing of borrower credit. OSFI, to its credit, took a measured approach, likely for two reasons. One, real estate prices in some regions are in free-fall, and heavy-handed credit tightening might have driven prices down harder. That could defeat OSFI’s purpose of fostering financial system stability.”

The Toronto Sun in Canada. “I think we can all safely say that Toronto’s pandemic real estate boom is officially over. It isn’t a consensus we arrived at easily, to be sure, but even the denialists have finally come around to admit that what we are now seeing is far from the seasonal slowdown or simple ‘market recalibration’ one might remember from the Beforetimes. The market has pretty much ground to a halt with sales falling off a cliff. Average sale prices in some parts of the GTA are down over 20% from February’s peak. I’m not being dramatic or sensationalistic, that’s quite literally what the data shows.”

“And given the froth of the past several years, I’m not sure anyone should be surprised. What has been surprising to me, however, is how quickly this came on. Sure, there were signs this winter that buyer sentiment was shifting almost in lockstep with heightened anticipation of interest rate hikes, but this is not that.”

“The sellers who have gotten used to being in the driver’s seat are going to have to accept that this new reality is just that — their new reality. February prices are long gone. Offers will likely include conditions. And for those who have to sell right now, it will likely be a tough pill to swallow, particularly if they are depending on the proceeds to close on another property.”

“So yes, things aren’t great at the moment and will almost certainly get worse before getting better. And for those likely to be the most affected, the buyers who bought-in over the past two years and will be upside down on their mortgages for a while, we should all wish them well as they hunker down and ride this out. For everyone else, let’s stop treating real estate like a national religion and return our focus to the things that matter again.”

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This Post Has 139 Comments

  1. From the 19 minute video at the top:

    North Florida Real Estate Housing Bubble [Week 7]

    Jul 1, 2022 North Florida Real Estate Housing Bubble Week 7. Week seven of my Bubble Watch series. Should you buy or should you sell? Everyone has the real estate housing market on their minds. Tom Kerr a Realtor in North Florida takes you into the back end of his MLS account to show you what is actually happening now. This is the seventh of a weekly video series to keep tabs on the conditions for just you, a regular person. We call it Bubble Watch. Is North Florida’s housing bubble about to burst?

    The second 8 and a half minute video:

    Are St Johns County Home Prices Dropping? | Florida Housing Market

    Premiered Jul 1, 2022 Great News!! Some Home Prices Are Shifting in Northeast Florida. Including homes in St Johns County, St Augustine, & Some of Jacksonville.

    There are some great deals on homes here in Northeast Florida-currently on the market with select builders instead of give me a call if you’re in the market to buy a home or sell your home here in Northeast Florida.

  2. Another Fedsurrection in Boston yesterday:

    “The very threatening Patriot Front group, that likes to march in formation in khaki pants and ride in Uhaul trucks together were seen marching in Boston today.

    Since the Patriot front group first appeared, The Gateway Pundit always suspected they had links to the Feds. We were convinced they were infiltrated by federal agents.”

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/07/feds-khaki-pants-group-also-called-patriot-front-marching-boston-today/

    For accurate journalism covering the violence of the far left, multiple recent incidents in multiple locations:

    https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo

    1. Hi – Mr. Rittenhouse
      and please discard my comment about being afraid to get shot at –
      as I (We) would be really interested to get you on camera about
      the current US Housing Market.

      Would you be willing to do an Interview for German TV? –
      and if – it could be done anywhere you like – as we can send a English speaking crew anywhere in the US – and Ben has our e-mail and could forward any information you -(and we) need for further arrangements.

      2. “Mr. Rittenhouse” is going to take a hard pass on any TV interview with anyone. Ditto for all the other regular posters in here.

        1. “Mr. Rittenhouse” is going to take a hard pass on any TV interview with anyone.

          Are you sure – as he posts a lot of comments on this blog and sometimes is even dominating to such an extent that saying it ALL on camera might help him?
          And about:
          ‘all the other regular posters in here’. They had a lot to say before
          and it would be GREAT to juxtapose it with the wise words of the regular posters 12 years ago.

          1. I’ve posted sporadically since 2006. my media rep is willing to come out of retirement for all/any interviews.

            kindly contact:
            mm m maxheadroom@yyyahoo.kom

            ** shout-out to Palmetto.
            “hey, you ol’ he’-coon! still above ground?!” haha

          3. “Never talk to the media.” VoxDay’s words of wisdom

            Agree 100%. The MSM is the propaganda arm of the globalists.

        2. Why would I bother with German media?

          I’ve been on Tucker Carlson, my mom and I met the President at Mar A Lago, and after I win my lawsuits, I’ll have a net worth over a hundred million dollars.

          Hans thinks he is so cheeky. He can’t even protect his own country’s women from being raped by North African and Middle Eastern migrants who are Muslim.

          Germany has a Muslim rape problem, because your Muslim migrants never evolved beyond the 7th century.

          Let’s hear about that on some German television, eh Hans?

          1. ‘I’ve been on Tucker Carlson, my mom and I met the President at Mar A Lago, and after I win my lawsuits, I’ll have a net worth over a hundred million dollars’.

            So it’s really –
            YOU –
            Mr. Rittenhouse?

  4. ‘Oh no, that ship has sailed, at least for now’

    This is written by a UHS. Once again, you sellers can’t be greedy! Call up that low ball offer and smile as yer price is slashed again. With thee videos I’ve learned these salespeople really think they have to ‘educate’. Some videos are aimed at other UHS, to educate them. Others are aimed at the general public for the same reason. Adjust expectations. Then when those people are fooked, educate them to the “new reality” again.

    I realize discussing this is probably like garlic to Dracula.

    1. The tens of millions gladly accepted their “education” from educators with PhD’s in fraud, dumber than a box of hammers and uglier than a bagful of assholes.

      Did I mention housing prices are cratering?

      Sacramento, CA Housing Prices Crater 21% As California’s Fraud Riddled Housing Market Implodes

      https://www.movoto.com/ca/95832/market-trends/

  5. Turn down the thermostat, Zelensky needs $7 billion a month:

    “NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg may have said the quiet part out loud on Wednesday when he revealed to reporters that NATO’s push into Eastern Europe since 2014 was done specifically with Russia in mind.

    “The reality is also that we have been preparing for this since 2014,” he said. “That is the reason that we have increased our presence in the eastern part of the alliance, why NATO allies have started to invest more in defense, and why we have increased [our] readiness.”

    The NATO chief went on to insist that Russia has been “using force in the eastern Donbass since 2014.”

    What he neglected to mention, though, was the role Western powers played in the outbreak of civil violence in Kiev on February 24, 2013 that led to the Maidan coup and, ultimately, to the current situation. The US and its influence on the ground in Ukraine, channelled through “civil society” groups it bankrolled, was largely responsibility for that mess.

    https://www.rt.com/russia/558202-jens-stoltenberg-ukrainian-civil-war/

    Bankrolled? Nothing to see here, folks. Just another Soros financed color revolution.

      1. Why buy a house when prices are falling? Buy it later after prices Crater for 70% less.

        Santa Rosa, CA Housing Prices Crater 24% As Soaring Inventory Rots On The Vine

        https://www.movoto.com/ca/95404/market-trends/

        As one Sonoma County broker lamented, “Telling buyers prices never go down probably wasn’t a good idea.”

      2. Are you looking forward for it – and would you even consider to get into ‘the market’ yourself?

        If you actually read this blog, you would already know the answer to your questions.

        1. I think he actually is German, and not some Portland Pantifa larping as German, because of what time of day he posts on here (a.m. predawn in USA, daytime in Europe) and we all know that Pantifa would never actually be awake before noon.

          Have another meme, I’ve got hundreds of these:

          https://ibb.co/42QB5Cj

          1. His endless irritation that topics other than the housing bubble are discussed here is another sign that he might actually be German. Of course, he could be a German troll 🙂

          2. ‘Have another meme, I’ve got hundreds of these’:

            You got one about ‘Housing’`-
            or teenagers just don’t know that much about it?

      3. ‘His endless irritation that topics other than the housing bubble are discussed here is another sign that he might actually be German’.

        Because taking the name and purpose of this blog… seriously?

        1. Because taking the name and purpose of this blog… seriously?

          It’s not your blog, and you’re not the gatekeeper. The term “stay in your lane” comes to mind.

          1. Exactly. If Ben objected to the discussion of other topics, he would stop it.

            Germans can be very obstinate about doing things in what they consider to be “the right way.” Clearly, Hans believes that his way is the right way and that Ben should run his blog as Hans sees fit.

            Germans can be so stubborn about the “right way” that they will not perform a task if it can’t be done “the right way”, even if it desperately needs to be done. It’s a cultural quirk of theirs.

          2. the “right way”

            I took some German colleagues to a food joint that had no forks/knives once, just for fun.

            Hans is just trolling.

          3. “Germans can be so stubborn…”

            Many years ago I was at a gun show booth with a variety rifle scopes on display. Two top shelf models, German and Japanese, commanded the attention of several Tom Clancy types. The Japanese one had incredible optics, yellowish for improved dawn and dusk performance. So, “Which one is the better scope?” “The German one,” even after looking through the Japanese scope and agreeing with the others regarding its optical clarity. “You sure?” “Ja,” with a perceptible accent.

  6. ‘By the end of May, our inventory in Naples has nearly doubled since the same time a year ago. And if you include the 889 homes that had a price reduction in May to this inventory mix, then we’re in good shape heading into summer. Price reductions are basically like new listings because the home’s new price point becomes a new opportunity to a larger pool of buyers’

    Almost 900 shacks in one month. Think about all the conversations that had to take place. But yer in good shape!

  7. Washington Post Editorial Board — We can no longer avoid a criminal investigation into Donald Trump:

    “After another week of riveting testimony before the House Jan. 6 committee, it is natural to wonder: How many laws were broken, by whom, and will there be prosecutions? Some argue that former president Donald Trump is undoubtedly guilty of serious crimes and must be tried. Others insist that the criminal case against Mr. Trump still is not airtight, and that prosecuting a former president would tear apart the country. What is beyond doubt is that an intensive criminal investigation must proceed.

    https://archive.ph/CdJzX

    Did you know that the 2020 election was stolen?

    The 2020 election was stolen.

    1. Hunter Biden’s laptop had contacts for Google execs, US officials for China policy:

      “Hunter Biden’s hard drive contained an enviable lineup of contacts for top US officials tasked with overseeing the US-China relationship, and at least 10 senior Google executives — raising new questions about the extent to which Joe Biden’s well-connected son could have leveraged his connections for personal profit, The Post has learned.

      Many of the top-level government officials would have been in position to help Hunter Biden’s business aspirations in China during father’s term as vice president from 2008 to 2016. Throughout that period, he infamously looked to capitalize from his family name and connections — often while his father conducted sensitive state business.

      As for the Google braintrust, one former exec there told The Post that Hunter Biden sought the tech giant’s cash for Chinese ventures, and that several of the company’s bigwigs wound up working for the Obama-Biden administration during his father’s vice presidency.

      Among the names and personal cell phone numbers of the dozens of government officials and federal employees found in the infamous laptop Hunter Biden abandoned at a Delaware computer repair shop in April 2019: John Kerry and Max Baucus, who served as Secretary of State and U.S. Ambassador to China, respectively, during the Biden vice presidency. The Post reached Kerry’s answering machine when it called the number listed in the laptop. Baucus had a Chinese phone number listed and The Post was unable to reach him.

      https://nypost.com/2022/07/02/hunter-bidens-laptop-had-contacts-for-google-execs-us-officials-for-china-policy/

      10% for the big guy

    3. ‘trump’

      and as the name ‘trump’ is the Americanized form of German ‘Trumpf’ and your Name the Americanized form of the German ‘Rittinghaus’ (‘habitational name from a farm near Altena Westphalia) – we also could talk about your German Heritage?

  8. ‘The unusual market conditions of the pandemic have come to an end’

    Larry yer a denialist. But you came around. Just what about a phony CCP virus (loaded with gobs of fear, economic destruction and propaganda) makes shacks go up 60% in 2 years? Interest rates, and that’s a gone pecan baby! I said all along yer gonna regret it. Eat yer crowz Larry!

  9. Here’s another sign from the Florida link:

    ‘The overall median closed price increased 40.3 percent in May to $608,000 from $433,500 in May 2021. Jones responded, “Median closed price increases today are somewhat misleading. If we look at closed sales by price range, the $300,000 and below market is down 56 percent. That’s because we have few homes in inventory within this price category anymore. Therefore, a huge drop in the number of sales in the lower price categories means the calculation used to determine today’s median closed price reflects sales in those price categories where there is more inventory.”

    “Since January, we’ve seen a 21.9 percent increase in the number of homes sold in the $500,000 to $1 million price category,” added Coffey.’

    Now they are lecturing, sorry, educating that the median is flawed, lagging and WRONG! It’s the MIX!!

    1. The overall median closed price increased 40.3 percent in May to $608,000 from $433,500 in May 2021. Jones responded

      This should never, ever happen to shelter prices. Jerome Powell should be on a stretching rack.

  10. ‘It’s fabulous. Finally. Tons of choices, very little competition,’ she tweeted Thursday.

    Setting up your idiot “client” for their own personal financial Waterloo as the implosion of Housing Bubble 2.0 gathers force. Such a gratifying feeling for a UHS.

  11. ‘I plan to deploy this strategy myself on a listing I have coming up next week and provide some rate buydown information to just proactively address concerns about interest rates,’ Rockwell said. ‘It’s crazy how quickly the tables have turned!’”

    I plan to deploy the strategy of sitting tight in my rental and watching trillions of fictitious Yellen Bux valuations get vaporized from the “home equity” of the fools who bought into the most insane housing bubble in history.

  12. ‘When the interest rates got up over 5%, the buyers kind of stopped…I feel like a number of those price drops were sellers and agents that thought the market was still hot or hotter than it than it is’

    Note the lack of the word shortage in these articles.

    1. There’s that “I feel” again. No one gives a rat’s a$$ about your feelings, UHSs, when the hard cold data says a housing bubble bust is underway.

  13. Fellow brokers who also analyzed the May report are pleased with this trend as it will lead to more options for summer buyers.

    Gosh, what happens if “summer buyers” decide they don’t want to catch a falling knife? I fear this could exert significant downward pressure on prices as underwater FBs panic and head for the exits en masse, as prudent sellers refuse to bid on plummeting shacks.

  14. ‘You might want to huddle up with your agent and look back at the one or two offers you did receive, which were probably lower than your list price. Sharpen your pencil and see how you can make the numbers work, call the buyers’ agents and see if they’re still interested’

    Turn those machines back on!

  15. “Greeley/Evans saw 144 sales, down from 196 the prior month. The median sale price was $450,000, down from $452,800 the month prior, but 21.6% over the median in May 2021 of $370,000.

    Median shack prices in Greeley should be about $200K, if that. Talk about a town that’s down on its luck.

    2. Every one of those median prices in Colorado is an absolute joke. $650K in Fort Collins!? I remember the first time I got off a plane in Denver and drove along the entire 25 freeway, thinking just how depressing and ugly that entire stretch of Colorado is.

      1. At least part of the Fort is in the foothills. Everything east of I-25 might as well be in Kansas.

  16. “Fearing Russia might cut off natural gas supplies, the head of Germany’s regulatory agency for energy called on residents Saturday to save energy and to prepare for winter, when use increases.

    Federal Network Agency President Klaus Mueller urged house and apartment owners to have their gas boilers and radiators checked and adjusted to maximize their efficiency.

    “Maintenance can reduce gas consumption by 10 per cent to 15 per cent,” he told Funke Mediengruppe, a German newspaper and magazine publisher.

    Mueller said residents and property owners need to use the 12 weeks before cold weather sets in to get ready. He said families should start talking now about “whether every room needs to be set at its usual temperature in the winter — or whether some rooms can be a little colder.”

    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2022/07/02/sanctions-war-germans-told-to-prepare-for-gas-shortages-hot-water-rationing-possible/

    And just for the LOLZ:

    https://ibb.co/b6784br

    1. and
      Mr. Rittenhouse –
      as you seem to be quite interested in ‘Germany’ and ‘German issues’
      wouldn’t you be interested to speak directly to a German audience –
      as the ‘Deplorable’ – who seemed to be the expert about ‘Germany’
      and German issues on this blog – seemed to have left?
      And as you repeated some of the ‘Deplorable’s’ comments there is lot which could be discussed?

      1. as the ‘Deplorable’ – who seemed to be the expert about ‘Germany’

        Point of correction, Hans: The regular HBB posters are experts on all things under the sun, not just Germany. God just gifted us with superior intelligence – not to mention, chicks dig us.

        1. Point of correction, Hans: The regular HBB posters are experts on all things under the sun,

        2. ‘Point of correction, Hans: The regular HBB posters are experts on all things under the sun’,

          But as you aren’t an expert about my name you can’t be a ‘regular’ from 12 years ago – or you already have forgotten 2010?

        3. ** ” . . not to mention, chicks dig us.”

          damn skippy!! hey winger, what say let’s take that new EM50 Urban Assault Vehicle out for a little cruise?!? be back before they notice it’s even gone.

      2. ‘there is lot which could be discussed?’

        as there also is this… issue – of… verification – as you are probably aware that on the Internet there is a lot of ‘Fake News’ or/and even ‘Fake Names’ and just sending a photo of yourself might not be sufficient in order to exclude the possibility that you are just a ‘Fake’
        Kyle Rittinghouse?
        But don’t worry – if that would be the case we still would be very much interested in an interview – trying to find out why anybody would like to call himself – ‘Kyle Rittinghouse’?

        1. – and I understand the… the ‘marketing’ aspect of trying to be ‘Kyle Rittenhouse’ – as if it will make the so called rounds on the Internet that ‘Kyle Rittenhouse’ is commenting on the Housing Bubble Blog there might be a lot of American Kyle Rittenhouse Fans who probably want to read what Kyle Rittenhouse has to say about Housing –
          BUT whatabout if they have been fooled?

        2. Kyle Rittenhouse is a great name, because it represents the rule of law and the constitutional
          protections that you have a right to defend yourself

          Kyle Rittenhouse was innocent and was found to be not guilty by a Court, rather than fake news and mob justice spinning he didn’t have right to defend himself.

          So, why would you think that Kyle Rittenhouse is a negative name? Its a great name for those who haven’t been brainwashed by fake news and mob justice.

          1. @
            ‘Kyle Rittenhouse is a great name, because it represents the rule of law and the constitutional protections that you have a right to defend yourself’

            – so you read on the Internet:
            ‘There is a striking parallel between the roles played by the Chorus in both the Rittenhouse case and that of Israel’?

            But how about using somebody else’s name?

          2. for those who haven’t been brainwashed by fake news and mob justice

            He believes in Hate Speech. ‘Nuf said.

      3. And as you repeated some of the ‘Deplorable’s’ comments there is lot which could be discussed?

        Pssst … Hans … in case you haven’t figured it out yet, they are the same guy.

        1. Also, in case you haven’t figured it out, the poster named Kyle Rittenhouse currently, is a truth seeker, a good human, and a valued poster on this blog.
          That is what is so nice about free speech, rather than fake news narratives with censorship, all designed to defraud and brainwash and create mass psychosis with the population.
          And you should know, that these same methods used today were the ones used by Hitler and Nazi Germany , and others.

          1. Hans is probably also bent out of shape because what he sees here would be censored in Germany.

          2. ‘And you should know, that these same methods used today were the ones used by Hitler and Nazi Germany , and others’.

            Every school kid in Germany learns what ‘methods’ were used by Hitler and Nazi Germany and that’s why most Germans don’t get fooled by Right-Wing Fascists anymore.

        2. ‘Pssst … Hans … in case you haven’t figured it out yet, they are the same guy’.

          Really?

          So ‘Deplorable’ was ‘Kyle Rittenhouse’ the whole time?

  17. ‘The sellers just need to understand that whatever last year’s price was, they cannot just boost up prices by another 20%. They would not find buyers using that philosophy.’”

    Sellers, Mr. Yun is the spokesman for an industry of dissemblers. What you need to understand is that once again, the Keynesian fraudsters at the Fed have blown an insane housing bubble with their ultra-easy monetary policy, and now the chickens are coming home to roost. Gravity is not your friend, greedheads. Bidenflation is going to force the Fed’s hand on interest rate hikes and true price discovery is going to lay waste to delusional greedhead wish prices.

  19. The Financial Times
    Opinion Cryptocurrencies
    Crypto evangelists keep the faith as prices fall
    True believers insist that blockchain technology can make the world a better place
    MARIA HERGUETA illustration of a person painting a rainbow over the hills
    Elaine Moore 4 hours ago
    …

    …do not imagine that a spectacular crash can dent the tech sector’s self-belief. Never mind that prices were plummeting, the mood at Graph Day was still upbeat. At the party held afterwards the drinks were flowing and the chat was about non-fungible tokens. Instead of swapping business cards, one partygoer offered up his phone with a QR code that linked to his Twitter account, complete with an NFT profile picture.

    Cautious voices were few and far between. “Perhaps,” mused one partygoer, “this will be the last event of its kind altogether. But I seriously doubt it.”

    It’s easier to brush off a price crash when you insist that the goal is not personal wealth. Web3 and crypto conferences like to promote the idea that crypto is a force for good. Some attendees had recently been at Crypto Bahamas and Crypto Miami — clustering in tropical locations with the likes of Tony Blair and Bill Clinton to congratulate themselves on improving the future.

    Any mention of the volatile price of digital tokens is deemed a faux pas. Crypto may have generated riches for some and left many others nursing heavy losses. But the San Francisco web3 conference focused on how blockchain technology could make the world a better place. Freaking out about fluctuating prices is for the stiffs on Wall Street who are only interested in a quick buck and have no knowledge of the tech behind it.

    Comparing profits or suggesting crypto might be pure speculation is taboo. So is any mention of criminal activity that uses crypto or the hacks that have left some investors in the red. Right now, this never say die attitude is exemplified in Sam Bankman-Fried, the 30-year-old billionaire who founded crypto-exchange FTX. Known for riding to crypto’s defence, and for wearing shorts and T-shirts to smart events with his curly hair askew, he has stepped in to provide credit or buy up struggling crypto businesses like BlockFi. He is now reported to be eyeing trading app Robinhood.

    For believers, there will be more opportunities to profit in the coming weeks. Since Graph Day the crypto crash has continued. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, is down 73 per cent from its peak. The share price of Coinbase, which only joined public markets last year, is down 77 per cent this year. When I asked one event-goer how he felt about the dramatic fall in crypto prices, and whether it might put a dampener on future conferences like this one, he said he was just looking forward to buying some more.
    …

    1. People are stupid.

      “When I asked one event-goer how he felt about the dramatic fall in crypto prices, and whether it might put a dampener on future conferences like this one, he said he was just looking forward to buying some more.”

      1. he was just looking forward to buying some more.”
        Let’s hope he buys on margin. Yeah, I can be a sick $OB sometimes.

    2. Just like the 2001 tech crash. Those true believers rode them all the way down to the bottom. Taking not a penny of profits along the way.

      In 98, I was hired by one of the telcom stars of the day, got a few options that vested in 2 years by quarter. You could of course hold them or sell them immediately. If you held them (for a year? i forget, some period of time) you only had to pay capital gains tax. if you sold them right away, you had to pay income tax. I made like 8 grand the first quarter they vested in 2000, and like 5 grand the next quarter. (then the bottom fell out). Guys who were like employee #100 had 100’s of thousands of dollars worth of in the money options. They all told me I was stupid, it going better, i should hold them for better tax treatment, etc, etc.

      Of all the people (engineers mostly) I knew at the company I was the only one to make any money off the options, everyone else rode them all the way to zero. None of them made a dime because at the end of the day they were greedy over free money and never even wanted to look at the downside.

      If you can’t hold it, you don’t own it. Crypto is going to zero and they will ride it all the way down.

      1. FWIW, these days options and RSU’s that vest are treated as earned income. You pay income tax, SS. and Medicare tax. 401K is also deducted from it.

      2. “None of them made a dime because at the end of the day they were greedy over free money and never even wanted to look at the downside.”

        There’s quite the cautionary tale in your story for the crypto HODLers. Many of them assume that by some unstated law of economics, prices have to return to their recent highs after this economic storm passes.

        Unfortunately for them, there is no law that says fundamentally worthless Ponzi assets must return to their mania highs. To the contrary, the history of modern finance is littered with examples of manias where bubble asset prices collapsed, never again to recover.

          1. “We’re back to the wild west finances of the 1920s as the crypto industry pours huge money into political campaigns”

            Can politicians save the HODLers from the logical consequences of their financial folly?

    3. “But the San Francisco web3 conference…”

      What kind of whacky tobaccy are these people smoking?

  20. Even Biden’s globalist oligarch puppetmasters can’t conceal their contempt for such an abject moron.

    ‘Inflation is far too important to keep making statements like this’: Jeff Bezos blasts Biden for trying to blame gas stations for astronomical prices – and even China mocks the president by claiming he ‘now realizes capitalism is exploitation’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10977219/Jeff-Bezos-blasts-Biden-trying-blame-gas-stations-astronomical-prices.html

    1. The U.S. and Britain should have stopped after liberating France, Italy, and the Low Countries, and let Stalin take *ALL* of Germany.

      1. ‘The U.S. and Britain should have stopped after liberating France, Italy, and the Low Countries, and let Stalin take *ALL* of Germany’.

        ‘that doesn’t excuse that you had forgotten that Stalin didn’t *ALL* of Germany’. On the other hand you probably never learned anything like that in school –

        Right?

  23. Listings Soar | Nashville Housing Market Update July 2

    Jul 2, 2022 This video is an analytical approach to the Nashville Tn Housing Market. We are seeing Median Sales Price fall in what appears to be a trend down for the first time this year.

    Active Listings
    Under Contract
    Median Sales Price
    Forecast
    Price Cut Heat Map

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNVSKPyJOHQ

    9:40. The heat map starts at 5:45.

    1. You should do a poll on which city people think will drop the most, and by how much. One of the mega bubbles like Boise or Austin is going to drop 70% this time.

      1. Boise seems like a good candidate: it’s flyover and its job base is mediocre. Phoenix and Vegas because water could end up being rationed, and even with water, who in their right mind wants to live there?

      2. Boise, Austin, Vegas, West Florida (tampa) (and the rest of Florida), California, Denver, Phoenix, SLC, (and St George) Seattle, Portland, Atlanta are going to get pummeled pretty bad IMO. Way overbuilt and rapidly going to crap cuz of the fine leadership of most of these cities. But yes, a poll would be super interesting.

        1. The predictions thread would be a good place. I’m going to forward it until the 4th as usual.

  24. AOC

    “I’m going to use my new manicure as almost like a personal act of reclamation for me and my story.”

    “It was very socially conservative, again, like, to the point where I couldn’t really even paint my nails red until I pretty much graduated and left the house because there was just a lot of discussion about how red nails, red lipstick — it’s just portrays a kind of a message about the kind of woman that you are. And I think a lot of times, that kind of woman which is ungovernable, it often gets translated to ‘loose’ — is seen as bad or negative,” she said

    Has any woman ever suffered more for the causes she supports?

    The poor girl not allowed to wear prostitute red lipstick when she was raised in Westchester (one of the wealthiest towns in America) and called “Sandy” by her classmates although she has used her deceased father’s Bronx condo on her voter registration since 2012. She was forced to forgo community college and attend Boston University. She now has to park her $59k Tesla illegally behind the Whole Foods by her luxury D.C. apartment building The Yards Park -which is situated on the banks of the Potomac River and features both an indoor lap pool and a rooftop pool, a rooftop dog park and dog wash station, numerous gyms including a Peloton cycling studio and a yoga studio, a demonstration kitchen with a wood-fired pizza oven, private massage rooms with hydromassage beds, a golf simulator studio, a basketball court, a racquetball court, and a rooftop tennis court.

    After surviving all of that in this racist and bigoted country she is now going to add to her story by getting a manicure as “a personal act of reclamation”.

    Nailing her colors: AOC appears to compare getting her nails done to abortions after Roe reversal

    by Ryan King, Breaking News Reporter
    July 02, 2022 12:39 PM

    Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez seemingly painted a colorful link between getting her nails done and the overturn of Roe v. Wade in her latest Instagram post.

    Speaking to her 8.6 million Instagram followers, the progressive firebrand emphasized that there is “no act too small” and encouraged her viewers to search for ways to reclaim lost autonomy even when they feel “powerless.” Ocasio-Cortez then explained how she was using her manicure as “a personal act of reclamation” and “bodily autonomy.”

    “Sometimes people will say, ‘There’s nothing I can do, I can’t do, I feel so powerless,'” she said in her Instagram story Friday. “There is no act too small that you can engage in, and even today, I have a personal errand. I need to redo my nails, and I’ve decided that I’m going to use my new manicure as almost like a personal act of reclamation for me and my story.”

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/house/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-aoc-nails-abortion-roe

  25. ‘The Supreme Court decided on June 30 to hear an important new case that Republicans hope will re-empower state legislatures to make rules for redistricting and governing congressional and presidential elections.’

    ‘Election law expert J. Christian Adams, a former U.S. Department of Justice civil rights attorney who now heads the Public Interest Legal Foundation, an election integrity group, praised the Supreme Court for granting the case, which he said was “very important.”

    “It means that the Court may take up all the nonsense that has been occurring over the last 10 years,” Adams told The Epoch Times by email.’

    ‘Democratic Party attorney and election law activist Marc Elias denounced the court’s decision to hear the case. “The Supreme Court will hear a case next term that may validate the dangerous independent state legislature theory,” Elias wrote.
    “Congress must enact comprehensive voting rights and anti-subversion legislation before it’s too late,” he wrote, adding “the future of our democracy is on the docket.”

    ‘The doctrine has been in the news because conservative Republican activist Ginni Thomas, wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, sent emails to 29 Republican state lawmakers in Arizona urging them to choose the state’s presidential electors despite the disputed popular vote tallies showing Democrat Joe Biden had won the state.’

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/scotus-to-hear-case-that-could-give-state-legislatures-not-judges-power-to-regulate-elections_4569670.html

    This new development is a danger to our democracy…

      1. As I mentioned above, the MSM is a propaganda arm for the globalists, you know, those people who:

        -Don’t want you to have a car
        -Don’t want you to travel
        -Don’t want you to cool your house in the summer
        -Don’t want you to heat it in the winter
        -Don’t want you to eat meat
        -Don’t want you to have a say in what your children are taught at school.
        -Don’t want you to have a say in what is injected into your body.
        -Want your daughters to shower with biological men, who still have their male plumbing, in the women’s locker room
        -Want to censor (I’m looking at you Hans) everything you say.

        1. `As I mentioned above, the MSM is a propaganda arm for the globalists, you know, those people who:
          -Don’t want you to have a car
          -Don’t want you to travel

          PLEASE STOP!
          as you very well know –
          that ALL the MSM wants –
          RIGHT NOW!
          is for YOU to buy as many new cars as you can –
          AND travel ALL over the place –
          AND buy as many Houses as you can!

          And how can you be so confused that you don’t know that?
          I mean this blog tells you every day!

          Right?

    2. From the party that thinks abortion rights are clearly in the Constitution:

      “That argument is often referred to as the independent state legislature doctrine, a legal theory that says only state legislators have the authority to set rules for federal elections. Some conservatives have advanced that position in recent years, pointing to a provision in the U.S. Constitution that says the manner of federal elections “shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof.”

      Those crazy conservatives, pointing to actual language actually written in the Constitution!!

      1. There’s a reason people on the left want to toss the Constitution and replace it with a document like the ones in places like Canada, Australia or New Zealand.

        Poor American lefties! Imagine their envy when Australia built “health camps” for the Covid positive. They were like a little boy. with his nose pressed against the window at a pet shop, looking longingly at a puppy he knew he couldn’t have.

        And speaking of the Australian concentration camps, the Aussies are trying to promote international tourism. Fly Qantas! As if I would ever set foot in such a place.

  27. Sunday Funnies meme dump — 2020’s Greatest Hits Edition:

    https://ibb.co/1Kj7VJb

    https://ibb.co/3cTLDtg

    https://ibb.co/nzKjbT6

    https://ibb.co/k3J0jZZ

    https://ibb.co/Xkzbs3q

    https://ibb.co/LPQ6WcB

    https://ibb.co/7YhpJwS

    https://ibb.co/xJsg9gp

    https://ibb.co/TPrpJJx

    https://ibb.co/jgbTq50

    https://ibb.co/M8G30qr

    https://ibb.co/SttHHHf

    https://ibb.co/GJjksQy

    https://ibb.co/NrhDWfp

    https://ibb.co/zmG9sjw (pure coincidence that the IBB website applied this randomly generated URL string to this image “sjw” )

    https://ibb.co/1qpsKNP

    Enjoy!

    1. ‘Enjoy’

      sorry Kyle –
      but I can’t –

      I can’t –
      as I’m just not a silly gaming teenager anymore…

  28. Until recently, I never knew the people across the street and a couple of doors down were renters. They had been there since I moved in 10 years ago, nice people. Unfortunately for them they were month to month and their landlord must have heard the music stop and told them they had to move. They finished getting the last of their stuff out Friday.

    He has put a new metal roof on, painted the exterior and has people working inside this weekend. Houses are still selling for stupidly high prices here but if he doesn’t get it sold quick he won’t be the first dude I’ve seen with burnt hands from sliding down the I’m not just going to just give it away rope in 33458. The last one I saw turned down $390k in late 2006 and ended up selling for $190k in early 2008.

  29. Talk about the cold winter coming soon ….Just got an estimate for LP gas to heat our upstate SC 2nd home …$4.30 a gallon…….I laughed at the lady giving me that price …..It pencils out that using old fashioned plug in heaters for each room only costs about what $3.80 a gallon LP would do…..our winters are mild enough that that is an option ……or guess we could fire up the wood fireplace insert again, though my back hurts ,just thinking about it…..And we’re about to pay those kind of energy bills because Europe expects to freeze this winter ?????

      1. What’s that?!

        I used to be a San Diegan, so I get your snark. But we had central heating in our Escondido shanty. And one December it conked out and we noticed right away as the house got cold. Chalk that up in part to utterly mediocre insulation.

        1. I was a carless student in Boston traipsing through snow. I’ve experienced winters. San Diego doesn’t have them. Heck, you have to trick flower bulbs into growing! I much as I hated Boston, the tulips and daffodils in February and March were spectacular.

          1. San Diego doesn’t have them

            Sure it does. The beaches are deserted during winter. People wear coats. Sure, it doesn’t snow and isn’t as cold as other places, but it can get cold, even below freezing. I remember how the local news would always visit orange groves during a freeze and the grove owners would set up outdoor heaters to protect the crop.

            When I think of “no winter” I think of places like Cancun or Acapulco, where summer is mid 90’s and winter is mid 80’s.

          3. The beaches are deserted during winter.

            I’ve seen plenty of people through the decades surfing on New Years Day.

          4. surfing on New Years Day.

            I’ve hunted after Thanksgiving in a T-shirt. I’ve been out boating in December on Seneca Lake in NY. It never freezes. Never.

  30. Now they finally admit it publicly – the avg 1st time buyer has 7% down. All those trade-up buyers have 17% down. Oh well – i hope that prices have not dropped 17% for their sakes.


    According to a recent report by the National Association of Realtors, nearly half of consumers believe they need to pay at least 16% of the home value or more for a down payment, while one in 10 think they need to pay more than 20%.

    Fortunately, that just isn’t the case. The report states the average down payment on a home in 2021 was just 7% for first-time homebuyers and 17% for repeat buyers.

    Among the many difficulties for potential homebuyers is the fact that over the last two years, they’ve had to compete with cash buyers. The National Association of Realtors stated in May 2022 that 25% of buyers had enough cash on hand to purchase a house without needing any financing, essentially putting everyone else hoping to buy at an immediate disadvantage.

    However, since the buying market has drastically slowed down due to elevated interest rates, homebuyers in general are now getting a better shot at landing their dream homes, regardless of the size of their down payment.

    I purchased my home in Jan. 2022 with a conventional loan and a 5% down payment; I didn’t experience any pushback after making a down payment that was less than 20%. By putting down a smaller amount, I can continue paying down other debt and invest for the future. That said, I’m still subject to paying Private Mortgage Insurance, or PMI, which will eventually fall off my mortgage once I hit the 20% equity mark.

    1. All those trade-up buyers have 17% down.

      That seems odd. Houses in some parts appreciated more than 20% in just one year.

  31. Canadian Housing Market is DOOMED – The CRASH is HERE – The Canadian Real Estate Show
    Jul 3, 2022

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpNhB4XEwSw

    This is the weekend K-da RE show I listen to. This is targeted at other RE people. It’s over an hour but it’s become rather interesting. At 12 minutes they discuss “some people are going to get hurt really bad”…”I don’t know how those are going to end up for those people”…”how can it lose 20%?…”everybody knew what’s going on”. I’ll check back if I hear more.

    1. At 17:50 they get into lending and regulators: CMHC/appraisers. “Mortgage brokers all on commission”…”you got people coming in like crazy to pump these appraisals through”…”the lender wants them to use this guy right? Yes yes…He’s on their list and he’s willing to drive to Hamilton” stopped for now at 20 minutes.

      Oh dear…

      1. 20:15 “He’s willing to write the great numbers too”. 21:45. “That will never appraise”

    2. ”everybody knew what’s going on”.

      …and you said nothing.

      Call your attorney.

    1. Interesting that they profiled a black woman who moved away. I’m gonna guess she pulls the D lever every election.

  33. I’ve been pulled over by the cops before. Here’s the thing: if you comply with their instruction and don’t engage in threatening behavior, you won’t get shot. It’s a basic concept that Youth for Biden seem unable to grasp.

    Protestors gather in Akron after police finally release footage of Jayland Walker shooting: Black DoorDash driver, 25, who cops say opened fire on them was shot 60 times by eight officers as he fled traffic stop in ski mask and left gun in car

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10978301/Akron-police-release-heartbreaking-footage-Jayland-Walker-shooting.html

    Police have released body camera footage of the moment a black man from Ohiowas shot by police at least 60 times – on the final deadline they had to turn over the video to the public.

    Jayland Walker, 25, was killed by Akron police after officers tried to stop him for a traffic violation while he was driving on June 27.

    3. Hands on the wheel. Yes sir, no sir. Not a hard concept.

      Even as a non person of color my dad had that talk with me when I started driving. Never had issues with cops and traffic stops because I’m not an idiot with a hothead.

      1. “Hands on the wheel. Yes sir, no sir.”

        Indeed. I firmly conveyed these basic rules to both of our kids when they first learned to drive:
        — Stop in a safe observable location.
        — Window down, door unlocked.
        — Both hands on the upper half steering wheel.
        — Yes sir, no sir.

  36. After terrible first half, 2022 may bring more bad news for US markets
    While investors are at last focused on recession uncertainty, risks elsewhere in the world could hit the US investors too
    Topics
    Wall Street | Dow Jones
    IANS | New York | Last Updated at July 03 2022 16:43

    US markets are beginning to fear that they are not even halfway through the bad news the year 2022 has in store, media reports said.

    The first six months were full of surprises: Inflation, the biggest selloff in bonds in four decades, a plunge in tech stocks rarely matched in history, and the implosion of crypto, the Wall Street Journal reported.

    The looming risk that investors ignored for months is recession. But whether the economy will slump or be just fine remains unknown. Attempts to put a probability on it range from 90 per cent in a Deutsche Bank survey of clients to the spurious precision of 4.11 per cent in the New York Federal Reserve’s recession forecasting model.

    While investors are at last focused on recession uncertainty, risks elsewhere in the world could hit the US investors too.

    Japan might finally be forced to relent and allow bond yields to rise, which would suck back cash the country’s investors had poured overseas.

    “In Europe, the central bank has promised a new plan to support Italy — but we’ve seen this show before. If it follows the pattern of too little, too late, we could see a return of the eurozone debt crisis, something the markets are not prepared for,” Wall Street Journal reported.
    …
    https://wap.business-standard.com/article/international/after-terrible-first-half-2022-may-bring-more-bad-news-for-us-markets-122070200927_1.html

    1. Are race based criteria used to select members of the committee that dates US recessions?

      1. Who decides if the US is in a recession? Eight White economists you’ve never heard of
        By Nicole Goodkind, CNN Business
        Updated 8:36 AM EDT, Thu June 30, 2022
        New York CNN Business —

        Prominent Wall Street economists like Mark Zandi, investing luminaries like ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood and executives like JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon can make recession predictions until they’re blue in the face, but their guidance will remain just that — an economic forecast.

        That’s because, in the United States, the economy isn’t broadly and officially considered to be in a recession until a relatively unknown group of eight economists says so.

        The economists, who serve together as the Business Cycle Dating Committee, are hand-selected by and work under the umbrella of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private nonprofit organization. They have no predetermined meeting dates and their deliberations are private. There are no fixed term dates and the final determination of who gets to serve on the committee is made by one man: NBER president and Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist James Poterba.

        There is a clear lack of racial diversity amongst the eight members, and NBER has never had a member who has been a racial minority, according to Gary Hoover, co-chair of the American Economic Association Committee on the Status of Minority Groups in the Economics Profession.

        All NBER members are experts in macroeconomics and business cycle research. Each is over 60 years old, and they are all associated with prestigious universities. The group includes two women, one of whom is married to another member.

        The NBER’s recession designations are used and accepted exclusively by the US government, businesses, investors and journalists.

        While a recession is commonly defined by two consecutive negative quarters of gross domestic product growth, there’s no steadfast rule governing what defines a recession in the United States.

        Instead, the Dating Committee abides by a relatively vague definition that allows for wiggle room: A recession, they write, “involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”
        …
        https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/30/economy/recession-economists-nber/index.html

      2. It’s not being an internationally recognized expert in business cycle research that gets you on this committee, but rather having the right skin color.

    2. The Financial Times
      42 minutes ago
      New China lockdowns and US recession potential dampen Asia markets
      William Langley in Hong Kong

      Asia-Pacific market sentiments diverged on Monday, even amid renewed lockdowns in China and persistent concerns over the potential for a recession in the US.

      Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped as much as 1.8 per cent and South Korea’s Kospi declined 0.9 per cent. But Japan’s Topix gained 1.4 per cent and China’s CSI 300 was broadly flat.

      The moves came as a growing outbreak of Covid-19 in China saw the reintroduction of lockdown measures in one county of Anhui province and renewed mass testing mandates in areas across the country.

      The affected areas included Wuxi, an eastern manufacturing hub which also suspended dine-in services at restaurants and advised people to work from home.

      Investors have closely watched for signs of renewed lockdowns in China since the commercial and financial hub of Shanghai emerged from a two-week shutdown that roiled markets at the end of May.

      US government bonds rallied sharply at the end of last week, with investors buying up lower-risk assets after the latest report on the manufacturing sector painted a gloomy picture of the health of the world’s biggest economy.

      That trend continued on Monday, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, dropping 0.09 percentage points to hit 2.89 per cent.

      Oil prices dropped, with international benchmark Brent crude losing 0.1 per cent to trade at $111.48 a barrel.
      …

  37. My nephew has decided to transition to become a woman. Family is in an uproar.

    Fun times!

    1. Very sorry about nephew PB. The family just has to talk him out of it. So many articles to show him on people regretting that transformation.

    2. “My nephew has decided to transition to become a woman.”

      And where did he get that idea?

Comments are closed.