Is Seattle Real Estate DEAD? Seattle Real Estate Market Update
Jul 6, 2022
The second 5 minute:
Anaheim Hills Real Estate is on the move as is All of Orange County. Housing market update 2022
Jul 7, 2022
Let’s look at active listings now here, if there’s one big change in 2022 in Anaheim Hills, and pretty much most of Orange County is that the number of listings coming on the market has jumped significantly. In Anaheim Hills, the number of listings has jumped to 80% from last year, which is a big jump.
The third 17 minute:
The Fall is Happening… | Las Vegas Real Estate Update (July 2022 Update)
Jul 7, 2022
The fourth 11 minutes:
July 2022 Update: Vancouver House Sales Plummet -48%
Premiered Jul 7, 2022 Detached house sales for Greater Vancouver dropped 48% year over year compared to June 2021. Furthermore, overall sales decreased 16% from May to June. Listings are piling up and the buyers have vanished to the sidelines. With further interest rate hikes coming july 13th its all but certain house prices will continue their downward fall until september at the earliest… ENJOY!
‘Laguna Hills, CA, July 08, 2022 — Maxim Lending Corp, a mortgage broker, has introduced more accessible programs for homeowners and investors as they predict a slowdown in the housing market. Maxim Lending Corp is hoping to provide clients with an avenue to purchase or refinance investment properties despite the impending recession we seem to be heading to as property rates are continuously climbing.’
‘The broker is hoping to help first-time buyers in the market make low-cost investments with high rates, to then refinance when rates are lower.’
‘Maxim Lending Corp is focused on making its services as accessible as possible, with some clients holding FICO scores as low as 500. Maxim Lending Corp is approved to do business in its home state of California, as well as Arizona, Minnesota, Maryland, Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Texas, and Colorado.’
‘Brian Jahanbin, president of Maxim Lending Corp, has been in the business for 20 years and has a wealth of experience in the field. Maxim Lending Corp has unveiled several new programs, including cash flow Debt-Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) loans that allow clients to purchase or refinance investment properties without having to verify income or show income or tax returns. Both homeowners and real estate investors will be able to take advantage at a time when the housing market is subject to changes in an unstable economy. As financial hardships for the average American become increasingly commonplace, sales of homes are once again plummeting, resulting in a market shift that favors buyers seeking to take advantage of both the lack of competition in purchasing homes, the accessibility of loans, and the competitive refinancing plans.’
“We offer Jumbo, Veterans Affairs, Federal Housing Administration, Conventional, bank statements, stated income, and hard money mortgages with the most competitive rates we can get through our lender network,” Jahanbin says. “Having been in the industry as long as I have, I’ve seen how volatile the market could be. In the last 20 years, the housing market has been hit from all directions. Our goal at Maxim Lending Corp is to help borrowers succeed, and to offer advice that ensures the maximum return on investments. Whether they’re seeking to buy a home for their family to live in for decades or are just hoping to break into real estate investment.”
Considering double digit lending rates are the stated target, when can we expect lower rates? 2050? 2060?
‘Three days after nearly 450 employees, including 135 drivers, were laid off — some found out via a Zoom video call — Williston, Vermont-based LandAir’s management team and its private equity owners remain silent on what led to the decision to pull the plug on the 54-year-old LTL carrier.’
‘FreightWaves broke the story that employees of the LTL carrier that serviced the Northeast and parts of Canada were blindsided when they were unable to log in to their computers Tuesday morning and truck drivers were notified the company would no longer be making pickups.’
‘One former LandAir employee, who spoke to FreightWaves on the condition of anonymity, said the company’s customer service and sales teams were the first to be laid off Tuesday. Management notified truck drivers and service center personnel via a Zoom video call around 4 p.m. EDT on Tuesday that they no longer had jobs and the carrier was winding down operations by Friday, the source said.’
Student Loan-Backed Bond Sales Plummet as Borrowers Skip Refinancings
bnnbloomberg|13 hours ago
Companies selling bonds backed by student debt have retreated from the market this year, as promises of loan forgiveness and higher rates deter borrowers from refinancing their loans.
If the majority of student borrowerss don’t repay, due to a combination of inability plus repeated rounds of Democrat discussion of loan forgiveness, will that make loan forgiveness a self-fulfilling prophesy?
The past couple of years would have been a great time to pay down that principal balance while Sam covered the interest.
‘On May 16, Butler Hospitality, an on-demand platform for room service and amenities, sent an email to vendors that might have been considered reassuring under other circumstances. “We are writing to inform you [that] room service and catering services will continue as is. All collateral is still functional,” the email read. “We appreciate your loyalty to sticking with us through these times.”
‘The trouble was, Butler’s roughly 1,000-person workforce had been laid off just days earlier. In fact, most were told that the company had been dissolved — according to interviews TechCrunch had with a number of former employees, and corroborated in a report last week by industry blog Restaurant Dive.’
‘Butler’s downfall is a cautionary tale both of the opportunities and challenges that exist in the world of on-demand startups. There may be clear gaps in the market for services that appear in theory like easy sailing. Yet they can inevitably be buffeted by economic, social and, in recent times, extreme public health headwinds. And amidst all that, those working there are the first to go over.’
What I find funny here is that the article is on the techcrunch website.
When did catering become “tech”? I guess right after taxis and Hotels became tech.
I’m struggling to make sense of “on demand room service”. It sounds like Uber Eats or Door Dash to me.
Netflix Giving Up 180K SF In Burbank Amid Subscriber Loss, Layoffs
I cancelled Netflix after they defended their decision to stream “Cuties”. That was the last straw for me. I can only imagine how much more depraved it has become since then.
Netflix’s depiction of Ellen Page’s transition to Elliot Page is a new haircut from a barbershop.
Seriously, who writes this stuff?
‘Hunter Biden called his step-mom Jill Biden a “vindictive moron” and “entitled c–t” in text messages after she urged him to go to rehab to kick his drug habit, according to a new report. In one particular text sent to his brother Beau’s widow, Hallie Biden, who he was scandalously dating at the time, Hunter went off on the now first lady.’
“F–k my stepmother for always being as much of a selfish silly entitled c–t as you,” he wrote to Hallie as their brief relationship deteriorated. He also admitted to calling his stepmom a “f–king moron, a vindictive moron” in a separate text exchange with his uncle, James Biden, just days later.’
“And you do know the drunkest I’ve ever been is still smarter than you could ever even comprehend and you’re a shut [sic] grammar teacher that wouldn’t survive one class in a ivy graduate program,” Hunter said in the text. “So go f–k yourself Jill let’s all agree I don’t like you anymore than you like me.”
Next up….. The klassy low-life First Family on Jerry Springer.
“Doctor”?🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
As our good friend Rental Watch always said, “Did you think wages would magically triple and quadruple to meet grossly inflated housing prices? Of course not. Housing prices will continue falling to dramatically lower and more affordable levels meeting wages.”
He’s right.
Mount Kisco, NY Housing Prices Crater 17% YOY As Double Digit Price Declines Blanket NY/NJ/CT
The Financial Times
Property sector
Rising rates raise prospect of property crash
Homeowners, landlords and investors spooked as end of ultra-cheap debt sends prices sliding
One real estate agent estimates homes have shed 10% of their value in the time it might take some buyers to complete a purchase
George Hammond June 24 2022
Brenda McKinley has been selling homes in Ontario for more than two decades and even for a veteran, the past couple of years have been shocking.
Prices in her patch south of Toronto rose as much as 50 per cent during the pandemic. “Houses were selling almost before we could get the sign on the lawn,” she said. “It was not unusual to have 15 to 30 offers . . . there was a feeding frenzy.”
But in the past six weeks the market has flipped. McKinley estimates homes have shed 10 per cent of their value in the time it might take some buyers to complete their purchase.
The phenomenon is not unique to Ontario nor the residential market. As central banks jack up interest rates to rein in runaway inflation, property investors, homeowners and commercial landlords around the world are all asking the same question: could a crash be coming?
“There is a marked slowdown everywhere,” said Chris Brett, head of capital markets for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at property agency CBRE. “The change in cost of debt is having a big impact on all markets, across everything. I don’t think anything is immune . . . the speed has taken us all by surprise.”
Listed property stocks, closely monitored by investors looking for clues about what might eventually happen to less liquid real assets, have tanked this year. The Dow Jones US Real Estate Index is down almost 25 per cent in the year to date. UK property stocks are down about 20 per cent over the same period, falling further and faster than their benchmark index.
The number of commercial buyers actively hunting for assets across the US, Asia and Europe has fallen sharply from a pandemic peak of 3,395 in the fourth quarter of last year to just 1,602 in the second quarter of 2022, according to MSCI data.
Pending deals in Europe have also dwindled, with €12bn in contract at the end of March against €17bn a year earlier, according to MSCI.
Deals already in train are being renegotiated. “Everyone selling everything is being [price] chipped by prospective buyers, or else [buyers] are walking away,” said Ronald Dickerman, president of Madison International Realty, a private equity firm investing in property. “Anyone underwriting [a building] is having to reappraise . . . I cannot over-emphasise the amount of repricing going on in real estate at the moment.”
…
Lower interest rates will not right this sinking ship.
For a related example, falling rates in Japan did nothing to slow the collapse of their home-grown version of the Everything Bubble when it collapsed over the 1990 – 2000 period.
The Financial Times
US employment
Hot US jobs numbers cannot last much longer, economists warn
Some of the froth must come off the labour market as the Fed readies another jumbo rate rise
A help wanted sign
Some economists believe a sustainable level of jobs growth would be a third of the current rate
Colby Smith in Washington
2 hours ago
Economists warn the strongest period of job creation in recent history cannot be sustained for much longer, as the US central bank is increasingly emboldened to take drastic action to cool the economy and root out high inflation.
The world’s largest economy added another 372,000 jobs in June, outpacing economists’ expectations by more than 100,000 and underscoring the resilience of the US recovery from the depths of the coronavirus pandemic.
But with the Federal Reserve readying the most forceful campaign to tighten monetary policy since the 1980s — and inclined to be even more aggressive if warranted by the data — those gains are likely to slow significantly.
“You can’t add 372,000 jobs per month forever, because you will be tightening the labour force to extremes,” said Eric Winograd, director of developed market economic research for AllianceBernstein. He reckons a more “sustainable” pace is an average 100,000 positions a month.
“Below that and the labour force is weakening. Above that, it is tightening,” he said.
For most of the pandemic recovery, worker shortages have been the biggest “binding constraint” on the labour market — according to Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont — spawning one of the tightest job markets in history. While he expects these dynamics to continue weighing on employment growth, the Fed’s actions to curtail labour demand will soon also begin to take effect.
“There’s good news and bad news in every strong activity number now,” said Andrew Hollenhorst, chief US economist at Citigroup.
“The good news is that you’re further away from recession . . . but the bad news is that there’s more momentum in the economy and more inflationary pressure in the economy, and it may be that much harder for the Fed to slow things down.”
Fed officials have already sharpened their rhetoric about the lengths they are willing to go to ensure inflation does not become entrenched — something they now view as a “significant risk” to the US economy, according to minutes from their June policy meeting.
Consensus is building among top policymakers for a second consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increase at the end of the month, following the first since 1994 in June. That would lift the target range of the federal funds rate to 2.25 per cent to 2.50 per cent.
By year-end, officials are aiming to lift the policy rate to a level that modestly restrains the economy — estimated around 3.5 per cent.
The extent to which the labour market will be harmed as a result is subject to considerable debate. Policymakers are now acknowledging that some economic pain may be necessary and might be less damaging than a situation in which inflation persists at elevated levels for much longer.
Despite these concessions, many officials still maintain that job losses need not be excessive given the historic tightness of the labour market and the near-record number of job openings, which may mean that employers opt to cut back on vacancies as opposed to laying off their staff. Most officials expect the unemployment rate to rise to 4.1 per cent in 2024 — a forecast many economists still view as “wishful thinking”.
…
We’ll see how well the predictions of these porcine beauticians hold up in a few months:
When it comes to determining the trajectory of home prices, urgency may be the key factor. Despite some slowdowns against early spring 2022 conditions, Selma Hepp — the Deputy Chief Economist for CoreLogic — believes the “market will continue to see relatively strong demand from buyers and an elevated rate of home price growth.”
Ralph DiBugnara, President of Home Qualified, seems to agree with Hepp. He says that the “summer market will stay mostly high because of an increased urgency to buy.” Essentially, fears of further rate hikes may motivate prospective buyers to still take the plunge into the housing market now. DiBugnara commented further:
The first 9 minute video:
Is Seattle Real Estate DEAD? Seattle Real Estate Market Update
Jul 6, 2022
The second 5 minute:
Anaheim Hills Real Estate is on the move as is All of Orange County. Housing market update 2022
Jul 7, 2022
Let’s look at active listings now here, if there’s one big change in 2022 in Anaheim Hills, and pretty much most of Orange County is that the number of listings coming on the market has jumped significantly. In Anaheim Hills, the number of listings has jumped to 80% from last year, which is a big jump.
The third 17 minute:
The Fall is Happening… | Las Vegas Real Estate Update (July 2022 Update)
Jul 7, 2022
The fourth 11 minutes:
July 2022 Update: Vancouver House Sales Plummet -48%
Premiered Jul 7, 2022 Detached house sales for Greater Vancouver dropped 48% year over year compared to June 2021. Furthermore, overall sales decreased 16% from May to June. Listings are piling up and the buyers have vanished to the sidelines. With further interest rate hikes coming july 13th its all but certain house prices will continue their downward fall until september at the earliest… ENJOY!
A 2:20 video on insanity in California:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/groveland-tracy-on-list-of-california-zip-codes-where-home-values-have-soared/vi-AAZnAxn
A press release:
‘Laguna Hills, CA, July 08, 2022 — Maxim Lending Corp, a mortgage broker, has introduced more accessible programs for homeowners and investors as they predict a slowdown in the housing market. Maxim Lending Corp is hoping to provide clients with an avenue to purchase or refinance investment properties despite the impending recession we seem to be heading to as property rates are continuously climbing.’
‘The broker is hoping to help first-time buyers in the market make low-cost investments with high rates, to then refinance when rates are lower.’
‘Maxim Lending Corp is focused on making its services as accessible as possible, with some clients holding FICO scores as low as 500. Maxim Lending Corp is approved to do business in its home state of California, as well as Arizona, Minnesota, Maryland, Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Texas, and Colorado.’
‘Brian Jahanbin, president of Maxim Lending Corp, has been in the business for 20 years and has a wealth of experience in the field. Maxim Lending Corp has unveiled several new programs, including cash flow Debt-Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) loans that allow clients to purchase or refinance investment properties without having to verify income or show income or tax returns. Both homeowners and real estate investors will be able to take advantage at a time when the housing market is subject to changes in an unstable economy. As financial hardships for the average American become increasingly commonplace, sales of homes are once again plummeting, resulting in a market shift that favors buyers seeking to take advantage of both the lack of competition in purchasing homes, the accessibility of loans, and the competitive refinancing plans.’
“We offer Jumbo, Veterans Affairs, Federal Housing Administration, Conventional, bank statements, stated income, and hard money mortgages with the most competitive rates we can get through our lender network,” Jahanbin says. “Having been in the industry as long as I have, I’ve seen how volatile the market could be. In the last 20 years, the housing market has been hit from all directions. Our goal at Maxim Lending Corp is to help borrowers succeed, and to offer advice that ensures the maximum return on investments. Whether they’re seeking to buy a home for their family to live in for decades or are just hoping to break into real estate investment.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-broker-maxim-lending-corp-122700068.html”
Stated income? Chef, start up a dozen more crowz!
“to then refinance when rates are lower.’”
Considering double digit lending rates are the stated target, when can we expect lower rates? 2050? 2060?
‘Three days after nearly 450 employees, including 135 drivers, were laid off — some found out via a Zoom video call — Williston, Vermont-based LandAir’s management team and its private equity owners remain silent on what led to the decision to pull the plug on the 54-year-old LTL carrier.’
‘FreightWaves broke the story that employees of the LTL carrier that serviced the Northeast and parts of Canada were blindsided when they were unable to log in to their computers Tuesday morning and truck drivers were notified the company would no longer be making pickups.’
‘One former LandAir employee, who spoke to FreightWaves on the condition of anonymity, said the company’s customer service and sales teams were the first to be laid off Tuesday. Management notified truck drivers and service center personnel via a Zoom video call around 4 p.m. EDT on Tuesday that they no longer had jobs and the carrier was winding down operations by Friday, the source said.’
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/some-of-landairs-450-employees-terminated-via-zoom-video-call
Student Loan-Backed Bond Sales Plummet as Borrowers Skip Refinancings
bnnbloomberg|13 hours ago
Companies selling bonds backed by student debt have retreated from the market this year, as promises of loan forgiveness and higher rates deter borrowers from refinancing their loans.
If the majority of student borrowerss don’t repay, due to a combination of inability plus repeated rounds of Democrat discussion of loan forgiveness, will that make loan forgiveness a self-fulfilling prophesy?
The past couple of years would have been a great time to pay down that principal balance while Sam covered the interest.
‘On May 16, Butler Hospitality, an on-demand platform for room service and amenities, sent an email to vendors that might have been considered reassuring under other circumstances. “We are writing to inform you [that] room service and catering services will continue as is. All collateral is still functional,” the email read. “We appreciate your loyalty to sticking with us through these times.”
‘The trouble was, Butler’s roughly 1,000-person workforce had been laid off just days earlier. In fact, most were told that the company had been dissolved — according to interviews TechCrunch had with a number of former employees, and corroborated in a report last week by industry blog Restaurant Dive.’
‘Butler’s downfall is a cautionary tale both of the opportunities and challenges that exist in the world of on-demand startups. There may be clear gaps in the market for services that appear in theory like easy sailing. Yet they can inevitably be buffeted by economic, social and, in recent times, extreme public health headwinds. And amidst all that, those working there are the first to go over.’
https://techcrunch.com/2022/07/08/butler-shows-hundreds-of-employees-the-door-after-raising-50m-for-room-service-delivery/
What I find funny here is that the article is on the techcrunch website.
When did catering become “tech”? I guess right after taxis and Hotels became tech.
I’m struggling to make sense of “on demand room service”. It sounds like Uber Eats or Door Dash to me.
Netflix Giving Up 180K SF In Burbank Amid Subscriber Loss, Layoffs
https://www.bisnow.com/los-angeles/news/office/netflix-subleases-burbank-space-113719
I cancelled Netflix after they defended their decision to stream “Cuties”. That was the last straw for me. I can only imagine how much more depraved it has become since then.
https://twitter.com/seanfracek/status/1544395907587837952 (1m27s video):
Netflix’s depiction of Ellen Page’s transition to Elliot Page is a new haircut from a barbershop.
Seriously, who writes this stuff?
‘Hunter Biden called his step-mom Jill Biden a “vindictive moron” and “entitled c–t” in text messages after she urged him to go to rehab to kick his drug habit, according to a new report. In one particular text sent to his brother Beau’s widow, Hallie Biden, who he was scandalously dating at the time, Hunter went off on the now first lady.’
“F–k my stepmother for always being as much of a selfish silly entitled c–t as you,” he wrote to Hallie as their brief relationship deteriorated. He also admitted to calling his stepmom a “f–king moron, a vindictive moron” in a separate text exchange with his uncle, James Biden, just days later.’
“And you do know the drunkest I’ve ever been is still smarter than you could ever even comprehend and you’re a shut [sic] grammar teacher that wouldn’t survive one class in a ivy graduate program,” Hunter said in the text. “So go f–k yourself Jill let’s all agree I don’t like you anymore than you like me.”
https://nypost.com/2022/07/08/hunter-biden-calls-jill-an-entitled-c-t-in-texts/
Next up….. The klassy low-life First Family on Jerry Springer.
“Doctor”?🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
As our good friend Rental Watch always said, “Did you think wages would magically triple and quadruple to meet grossly inflated housing prices? Of course not. Housing prices will continue falling to dramatically lower and more affordable levels meeting wages.”
He’s right.
Mount Kisco, NY Housing Prices Crater 17% YOY As Double Digit Price Declines Blanket NY/NJ/CT
https://www.movoto.com/mount-kisco-ny/market-trends/
The Financial Times
Property sector
Rising rates raise prospect of property crash
Homeowners, landlords and investors spooked as end of ultra-cheap debt sends prices sliding
One real estate agent estimates homes have shed 10% of their value in the time it might take some buyers to complete a purchase
George Hammond June 24 2022
Brenda McKinley has been selling homes in Ontario for more than two decades and even for a veteran, the past couple of years have been shocking.
Prices in her patch south of Toronto rose as much as 50 per cent during the pandemic. “Houses were selling almost before we could get the sign on the lawn,” she said. “It was not unusual to have 15 to 30 offers . . . there was a feeding frenzy.”
But in the past six weeks the market has flipped. McKinley estimates homes have shed 10 per cent of their value in the time it might take some buyers to complete their purchase.
The phenomenon is not unique to Ontario nor the residential market. As central banks jack up interest rates to rein in runaway inflation, property investors, homeowners and commercial landlords around the world are all asking the same question: could a crash be coming?
“There is a marked slowdown everywhere,” said Chris Brett, head of capital markets for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at property agency CBRE. “The change in cost of debt is having a big impact on all markets, across everything. I don’t think anything is immune . . . the speed has taken us all by surprise.”
Listed property stocks, closely monitored by investors looking for clues about what might eventually happen to less liquid real assets, have tanked this year. The Dow Jones US Real Estate Index is down almost 25 per cent in the year to date. UK property stocks are down about 20 per cent over the same period, falling further and faster than their benchmark index.
The number of commercial buyers actively hunting for assets across the US, Asia and Europe has fallen sharply from a pandemic peak of 3,395 in the fourth quarter of last year to just 1,602 in the second quarter of 2022, according to MSCI data.
Pending deals in Europe have also dwindled, with €12bn in contract at the end of March against €17bn a year earlier, according to MSCI.
Deals already in train are being renegotiated. “Everyone selling everything is being [price] chipped by prospective buyers, or else [buyers] are walking away,” said Ronald Dickerman, president of Madison International Realty, a private equity firm investing in property. “Anyone underwriting [a building] is having to reappraise . . . I cannot over-emphasise the amount of repricing going on in real estate at the moment.”
…
Lower interest rates will not right this sinking ship.
For a related example, falling rates in Japan did nothing to slow the collapse of their home-grown version of the Everything Bubble when it collapsed over the 1990 – 2000 period.
The Financial Times
US employment
Hot US jobs numbers cannot last much longer, economists warn
Some of the froth must come off the labour market as the Fed readies another jumbo rate rise
A help wanted sign
Some economists believe a sustainable level of jobs growth would be a third of the current rate
Colby Smith in Washington
2 hours ago
Economists warn the strongest period of job creation in recent history cannot be sustained for much longer, as the US central bank is increasingly emboldened to take drastic action to cool the economy and root out high inflation.
The world’s largest economy added another 372,000 jobs in June, outpacing economists’ expectations by more than 100,000 and underscoring the resilience of the US recovery from the depths of the coronavirus pandemic.
But with the Federal Reserve readying the most forceful campaign to tighten monetary policy since the 1980s — and inclined to be even more aggressive if warranted by the data — those gains are likely to slow significantly.
“You can’t add 372,000 jobs per month forever, because you will be tightening the labour force to extremes,” said Eric Winograd, director of developed market economic research for AllianceBernstein. He reckons a more “sustainable” pace is an average 100,000 positions a month.
“Below that and the labour force is weakening. Above that, it is tightening,” he said.
For most of the pandemic recovery, worker shortages have been the biggest “binding constraint” on the labour market — according to Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont — spawning one of the tightest job markets in history. While he expects these dynamics to continue weighing on employment growth, the Fed’s actions to curtail labour demand will soon also begin to take effect.
“There’s good news and bad news in every strong activity number now,” said Andrew Hollenhorst, chief US economist at Citigroup.
“The good news is that you’re further away from recession . . . but the bad news is that there’s more momentum in the economy and more inflationary pressure in the economy, and it may be that much harder for the Fed to slow things down.”
Fed officials have already sharpened their rhetoric about the lengths they are willing to go to ensure inflation does not become entrenched — something they now view as a “significant risk” to the US economy, according to minutes from their June policy meeting.
Consensus is building among top policymakers for a second consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increase at the end of the month, following the first since 1994 in June. That would lift the target range of the federal funds rate to 2.25 per cent to 2.50 per cent.
By year-end, officials are aiming to lift the policy rate to a level that modestly restrains the economy — estimated around 3.5 per cent.
The extent to which the labour market will be harmed as a result is subject to considerable debate. Policymakers are now acknowledging that some economic pain may be necessary and might be less damaging than a situation in which inflation persists at elevated levels for much longer.
Despite these concessions, many officials still maintain that job losses need not be excessive given the historic tightness of the labour market and the near-record number of job openings, which may mean that employers opt to cut back on vacancies as opposed to laying off their staff. Most officials expect the unemployment rate to rise to 4.1 per cent in 2024 — a forecast many economists still view as “wishful thinking”.
…
https://investorplace.com/2022/07/housing-market-outlook-how-much-home-prices-drop-2022-2023/
We’ll see how well the predictions of these porcine beauticians hold up in a few months:
When it comes to determining the trajectory of home prices, urgency may be the key factor. Despite some slowdowns against early spring 2022 conditions, Selma Hepp — the Deputy Chief Economist for CoreLogic — believes the “market will continue to see relatively strong demand from buyers and an elevated rate of home price growth.”
Ralph DiBugnara, President of Home Qualified, seems to agree with Hepp. He says that the “summer market will stay mostly high because of an increased urgency to buy.” Essentially, fears of further rate hikes may motivate prospective buyers to still take the plunge into the housing market now. DiBugnara commented further: