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We’re Transitioning From A Hyper Sellers’ Market And People Are Getting A Little Concerned

A report from the Atlanta Journal Constitution in Georgia. ” The number of houses for sale last month in metro Atlanta was higher than the number for sale a year ago, signaling that the market may be entering a new phase, experts say. Yet the number of homes that actually sold continued to decline, as it has for months. The number of sales fell in all five core counties, Re/Max said. “

“For a long time, experts had attributed the drop in sales to a lack of supply: There just weren’t enough homes for sale. But now, it seems that potential buyers are lukewarm about the market. ‘The lack of sales now is a demand problem,’ said Brad Dillman, chief economist with Cortland, a real estate investment company.”

“The market is ‘rebalancing,’ said John Rainey, VP of Re/Max of Georgia. ‘We are beginning to see a shift in the local housing market. As prices and interest rates continue rising, buyers are pausing to see what happens next.'”

The American Statesman in Texas. ” Monica Blackburn, an agent with Blairfield Realty in Austin, said she hasn’t seen as many multiple offer situations this year than previously, ‘but if the house is priced slightly lower than neighborhood comps it is bound to have multiple offers.'”

“‘Price reductions tend to happen when the home starts off too high,’ Blackburn said. ‘Many times the seller is requesting the higher asking price since Austin is a seller’s market. Pushing the higher price does not always work and price reductions are needed.'”

“As the U.S. housing market slowed during the second half of this year, John Kovas, an Austin real estate broker with Kovas & Associates, said he observed a shift in the local market as well, starting around mid-August. Demand has slowed some, he said, and ‘people are getting a little concerned.'”

“‘We’re transitioning from a hyper sellers’ market to a more balanced market, where the negotiations are more even-handed,’ Kovas said. ‘Both sides have a say in the matter, whereas the sellers used to run the whole show. They’d make the rules, and if you didn’t play by the rules, you didn’t get the property.'”

“The transition to a more stable market appears to be the case in the Dallas area market also. In a column this month, written the same week a Wall Street Journal article reported that ‘Dallas’ once-vibrant housing market is sputtering’ — Steve Brown, real estate editor for The Dallas Morning News, wrote that ‘rumors about the demise of the local home market are probably exaggerated.'”

“‘And after the boom in housing we’ve seen over the last few years, any kind of slowdown is likely to cause some anxiety for sellers,’ Brown wrote. ‘ Having said that, anyone trying to sell a house knows the residential market this year has changed. Homes are taking longer to sell. And in most cases there isn’t a line of buyers fighting to overpay for your property.'”

“Brown noted that the cooling ‘is different from past cycles because the region’s employment market and population — both of which fuel housing demand — are still exploding. The (Dallas-Fort Worth) area housing boom of the last few years is unlike almost any in the last 50 years. And if price increases hadn’t slowed, we’d be looking at a California-style housing crash soon,’ Brown said.”

The Orange County Register in California. “Southern California house prices rose in November by the smallest margin in nearly four years as sales continue to lag, according to the California Association of Realtors. ‘ The slowdown in price growth is occurring throughout the state, including regions that have strong economic fundamentals, such as the San Francisco Bay Area,’ said Leslie Appleton-Young, state Realtor chief economist.”

“San Francisco saw its first house price drop in 1 ½ years. Prices also fell in Sonoma County and Santa Clara County (home to Silicon Valley), dropping year over year for the first time in six years.”

“Sales of existing single-family homes had been down year over year in Southern California in 13 of the past 17 months. Every Southern California county saw similar declines. Sales fell 14.4 percent in Orange County, 11.2 percent in Los Angeles County, 9 percent in Riverside County and 3.2 percent in San Bernardino County.”

“Statewide, house sales decreased 13.4 percent. Forty-one of 51 California counties posted sales drops, and statewide listings of homes for sale increased for an eighth consecutive month following three straight years of declines, the report said. Buyers, the state Realtor report says, ‘continue to sit on the sidelines.'”

This Post Has 62 Comments
  1. ‘We’re transitioning from a hyper sellers’ market to a more balanced market, where the negotiations are more even-handed…Both sides have a say in the matter, whereas the sellers used to run the whole show. They’d make the rules, and if you didn’t play by the rules, you didn’t get the property’

    Does this sound rational? Well John, enjoy your bust. There should never ever be a hyper sellers market for shacks. Much less one that lasts for years.

  2. ‘San Francisco saw its first house price drop in 1 ½ years. Prices also fell in Sonoma County and Santa Clara County (home to Silicon Valley), dropping year over year for the first time in six years

    Didn’t Larry Yun go out on a limb yesterday and say prices “could” fall out there?

    1. “dropping year over year for the first time in six years”

      Well here’s that YoY drop that the RE bulls have been stating reflects an actual decline opposed to the MoM. All downhill from here folks

      1. Once the MoM declines begin in earnest, it normally takes the YoY numbers a while to catch up. A similar stochastic principle applies as one of Wall Street’s dreaded Death Crosses begins to take shape.

    1. A first for HA! as inventory jumps and lower price per sq ft falls
      1 in 50 of your posts put these together.

      22151 low inventory n firm prices as admin spends you to death

      1. No we are on to the game and always looking for real trend indicators such as a drop in price / sq ft.

    1. The Wall Street Journal
      Oil Markets
      Oil Demand Flashes Red, Sending Crude Prices Even Lower
      Signs mount that oil consumption in China, India and other emerging Asian economies, the source of two thirds of global oil demand growth, is slowing
      By Georgi Kantchev
      Dec. 20, 2018 6:49 a.m. ET

      It isn’t just that there is too much oil sloshing around the world. All of a sudden, there are fears of too little demand for the stuff too.

      Oil prices continued to tumble Thursday, falling as much as 4%, with Brent crude, the international benchmark, falling to its lowest levels in 15 months. The U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, traded for $46.61 early Thursday and is down almost 40% since a high in October.

      To Read the Full Story
      Subscribe

      1. Does this effect luxury rental$ in Texa$?

        America’s top oil-producing region has a new problem: $40 crude

        Crude oil in the Midland, Texas, area, the epicenter of the U.S. shale boom, slumps to about $40 a barrel.

        Tom DiChristopher | @tdichristopher
        Published 10:29 AM ET Wed, 19 Dec 2018 | CNBC.com

      1. $inks, market$, convul$e … -600 point$.
        (No need$ to read$ between the line$)

        “Dow sinks more than 600 points at lows as equity markets convulse lower”

          1. Yeah, the US leaving Syria and Afghanistan makes for some sad pandas.

            One, two, three, four.
            Well, come on all of you, big strong men,
            Uncle Sam needs your help again.
            Yeah, he’s got himself in a terrible jam
            Way down yonder in Vietnam
            So put down your books and pick up a gun,
            Gonna have a whole lotta fun.
            And it’s one, two, three,
            What are we fighting for?
            Don’t ask me, I don’t give a damn,
            Next stop is Vietnam;
            And it’s five, six, seven,
            Open up the pearly gates,
            Well there ain’t no time to wonder why,
            Whoopee! we’re all gonna die.
            Yeah, come on Wall Street, don’t be slow,
            Why man, this is war au-go-go
            There’s plenty good money to be made
            By supplying the Army with the tools of its trade,
            Just hope and pray that if they drop the bomb,
            They drop it on the Viet Cong.
            And it’s one, two, three,
            What are we fighting for?
            Don’t ask me, I don’t give a damn,
            Next stop is Vietnam.
            And it’s five, six, seven,
            Open up the pearly gates,
            Well there ain’t no time to wonder why
            Whoopee! we’re all gonna die.
            Well, come on generals, let’s move fast;
            Your big chance has come at last.
            Now you can go out and get those reds
            ‘Cause the only good commie is the one that’s dead
            And you know that peace can only be won
            When we’ve blown ’em all to kingdom come.
            And it’s one, two, three,
            What are we fighting for?
            Don’t ask me, I don’t give a damn,
            Next stop is Vietnam;
            And it’s five, six, seven,
            Open up the pearly gates,
            Well there ain’t no time to wonder why
            Whoopee! we’re all gonna die.
            Come on mothers throughout the land,
            Pack your boys off to Vietnam.
            Come on fathers, and don’t hesitate
            To send your sons off before it’s too late.
            You can be the first ones in your block
            To have your boy come home in a box.
            And it’s one, two, three
            What are we fighting for?
            Don’t ask me, I don’t give a damn,
            Next stop is Vietnam.
            And it’s five, six, seven,
            Open up the pearly gates,
            Well there ain’t no time to wonder why,
            Whoopee! we’re all gonna die.

            https://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/countryjoeandthefish/ifeellikeimfixintodieragtake1.html

          2. “Well, come on all of you, big strong men,
            Uncle $am needs your help again.”

            Oh, missing, … ( or $electively forgotten, whatever) 75,000 kurki$h big.$trong.men … Aka, collateral damenage$!

            MAGA = Make A$$ad Great Again!

          3. “Yeah, the U$ leaving $yria and Afghani$tan makes for some sad panda$”

            Russkie$ puutin: “Donald darling eye love$ you, but give me 5th ave.!”

            Green Acre$ is the place to be …

          4. They must love u$ … “over there!” … Kurdi$tan

            Johnnie, get your gun,
            Get your gun, get your gun,
            Take it on the run,
            On the run, on the run.
            Hear them calling, you and me,
            Every son of liberty.
            Hurry right away,
            No delay, go today,
            Make your daddy glad
            To have had such a lad.
            Tell your sweetheart not to pine,
            To be proud her boy’s in line.

            Over there, over there,
            Send the word, send the word over there –
            That the Yanks are coming,
            The Yanks are coming,
            The drums rum-tumming
            Everywhere.
            So prepare, say a prayer,
            Send the word, send the word to beware.
            We’ll be over, we’re coming over,
            And we won’t come back till it’s over
            Over there.

            Johnnie, get your gun,
            Get your gun, get your gun,
            Johnnie show the Hun
            Who’s a son of a gun.
            Hoist the flag and let her fly,
            Yankee Doodle do or die.
            Pack your little kit,
            Show some grit, do your bit.
            Yankee to the ranks,
            From the towns and the tanks.
            Make your mother proud of you,
            And the old Red, White and Blue.

            Over there, over there,
            Send the word, send the word over there –
            That the Yanks are coming,
            The Yanks are coming,
            The drums rum-tumming
            Everywhere.
            So prepare, say a prayer,
            Send the word, send the word to beware.
            We’ll be over, we’re coming over,
            And we won’t come back till it’s over
            Over there.oikko

  3. “‘Price reductions tend to happen when the home starts off too high,’ Blackburn said. ‘Many times the seller is requesting the higher asking price since Austin is a seller’s market. Pushing the higher price does not always work and price reductions are needed.’”

    Wow, so glad we have “experts” like this realturd to shine the light on what’s needed to sell a property. What’s the prerequisite for getting that real estate license again? High school diploma? Not required. Clean driving record? Not required. Criminal history? Sure why not, the NAR accepts all you felons. Hop online and take our multiple choice quiz and pay us $100. Bam your a certified realturd!

    1. “‘…Price reductions tend to happen when the home starts off too high,’ Blackburn said…”

      Kinda like “Rocks and asteroids fall out of the sky due to gravity?..”

      I am sure Mr. Blackburn makes a dandy living as a highly paid consultant. He’s worth every penny.

      1. +1 Fake news.

        The Motley Fool pimps always say work until you drop dead whereas retirees say to pay off debts and retire early and enjoy your best years while you are still physically able to do things.

        1. Lots and lots and lots of people work until they drop dead, saving for “retirement” which actually means toiling away their entire life so that somebody else can enjoy the fruits of their labor. Gee, sign me up…

  4. ‘For a long time, experts had attributed the drop in sales to a lack of supply: There just weren’t enough homes for sale. But now, it seems that potential buyers are lukewarm about the market. ‘The lack of sales now is a demand problem’

    Translation: the experts were lying.

    ‘And in most cases there isn’t a line of buyers fighting to overpay for your property’

    Get ready for mucho foreclosures.

    1. Soon to follow: A chorus of financial insiders clamoring for too-big-to-fail bailouts, in order to save the entire global financial system from collapsing…

      1. Maybe they got smart and left the Governments holding the bag this time? Nothing higher and higher taxes won’t solve.

        Recession end of next year or at least it will be announced then. Could be happening right now .

      2. ‘Powell basically told you the Fed put is dead.’
        David Tepper

        Tepper’s “put” comment to CNBC on Thursday morning via email is a reference to the long-held view that Wall $treet has enjoyed a Fed safety net in some form or another at least since the October 1987 stock-market crash prompted the Alan Greenspan-led central bank to lower intere$t rate$.

        Back then the so-called put — an option that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell the underlying asset at a set price, serving as a kind of in$urance policy against a market decline — has been dubbed the “Greenspan put,” and later the “Bernanke put,” after his succe$$or Ben Bernanke, following the Fed’$ aggressive monetary-policy actions in the wake of the financial cri$is.

        Green$spent, Banknanke, Yowellen, … now they howl @ Pow!ell

      3. Imagine a genuine crisis moment, like September 2008. But now with Trump sending out one or more ill-considered tweets to further stoke the flames or cause genuine panic.

        1. LOL, apparently including the “T-word” in a post automatically marks it for moderation? Usually my posts only get marked for moderation, if I include some sort of link.

    1. Just think, at some point in the future, every bit of buried infrastructure under NYC (and of course every other city) will need to be replaced.

    1. Just.in.time for the post con$umer debt $pending holiday $ale on “hard liquor with logo glass” blow.out $easonal inventory clearance$.

      Got popcorn?

  5. My parents both passed away 3+ years ago. My brother, the executor, finally got around to trying to sell it last July. 2500 st home built in 1966, with no updates, full masonry, and a hilltop view of downtown Fort Worth. FISBO.
    Willow estimate was $380k. (But they assume updates)
    Closing tomorrow for $285k after paying $15k on new roof. Less buyer’s realtor fee 3%.
    My dad built it for under $40k in ’66.
    Now if I can get my non proactive brother to agree to sell the 5 old, small rent houses still remaining. Maybe next upswing.
    I feel like we got lucky with this downturn.

    1. According to the official CPI calculator, $39,000 in January 1966 is equivalent to $309,000 in November 2018…

    2. Form a non-profit, sell the rental homes t0 the non-profit, let the non-profit take care of them, and then work for the non-profit at $10,000 per month, and then donate $5,000 a month to the non-profit, take a $60,000 donation deduction from your taxes, and live in luxury.
      LOL

      1. ” … take a $60,000 donation deduction from your taxe$, and live in luxury.
        LOL”

        Oh no, my big brother has found the HBB!

  6. Allen, TX Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY As Dallas Brokers Advise Sellers To “Slash 30% If You Want To Sell”

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