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All Along It Was Out-Of-Control Speculative Demand That Was The Real Issue

A report from West Hawaii Today. “‘For every percentage point interest rates go up, we lose 10-15% of our buyers,’ said Gretchen Osgood, principal broker at Hawaiian Isle Real Estate in Kailua-Kona. With the market cooling, Osgood predicted that sellers will begin cutting their asking prices by a few percentage points, but added that most prices on the island already are wildly inflated, so the reduction will be more of a return to reasonable prices to start with. ‘I don’t know how we could avoid a recession at this point,’ Osgood said. ‘The financial machinery is already turning.'”

“The recession could have other effects, said Jessica Gauthier, principal broker for Salt Water Real Estate in Hilo. ‘I think we’ll see a lot of newer Realtors who started during the pandemic going back to other professions,’ Gauthier said.”

The Seattle Times in Washington. “The Emerald, a 40-story luxury condo tower two blocks from Pike Place Market, recently trimmed prices on some of its condos by 10% to attract buyers hit by rising interest rates and economic malaise. Nearby, at the Spire in Belltown, buyers can get a discount, too. The building is offering a year’s worth of homeowners association fees and credits of up to $15,000 toward closing costs or buying a cheaper interest rate from their lender.”

“The deals signal a broader trend in the cooling housing market. Fewer people are buying homes, and prices are starting to level off or drop. Among Seattle homes listed for sale Tuesday, 29% of condos and 31% of single-family homes had a price cut, according to Zillow. In downtown Seattle and Belltown, the median price was essentially flat from last year and down 16% from May. ‘This summer, Seattle has had one of sharpest turnarounds in the market anywhere in the country,’ said Jeff Tucker, ​​Zillow senior economist. ‘Broadly, the condo market is seeing the same, so folks selling condos are trying to get creative.'”

“Sales are lagging initial assumptions at Koda, a new tower in the Chinatown International District where about half of the condos have sold. The developer is now offering 5%-10% price cuts on the condos, said Erik Mehr, whose firm is leading sales at the building. Prices start at around $350,000 for studios, but the highest-end units are around $1 million. ‘We felt like our pricing was pretty accurate and right on the market, but over the last few months, things have shifted. So, we’ve tried to just adjust accordingly,’ Mehr said.”

“Individual condo sellers are cutting prices, offering to pay a year’s worth of HOA fees or paying to reduce a buyer’s interest rate, John L. Scott agent Andy Friedman said. Friedman listed a one-bedroom Ballard condo in April that drew an offer within days. When that buyer fell through and the condo hit the market again in June: crickets. Friedman said the condo is already listed for $5,000 below its appraised value. ‘We’re having to adjust to a new normal,’ Friedman said. ‘It’s difficult for sellers who listed a month or two ago because they’re still thinking that they’ve got the winning lottery ticket.'”

The Aspen Daily News in Colorado. “There is growing evidence that the current real estate cycle that started in June 2020 after the COVID lockdown may be winding down. Across the country and around the world, there are more and more reports of real estate markets slowing and values declining. From Europe to Australia, we’re starting to see real estate values flattening — and starting to decline in some markets. Canada, New Zealand, Australia and Sweden are all reporting price declines from 2% to 8% from a year earlier.”

“In the Denver metropolitan area, the inventory of residential properties for sale has increased 76% from last year at this time. In the Aspen-Snowmass area, we’re starting to see available inventory increase, asking prices being cut and the number of active contracts declining. In June, we saw only 16 residential properties go under contract, the lowest number since March and April of 2020. This compares to an average of 67 contracts per month going back to June of 2020, when the upward market momentum started in the Aspen-Snowmass market.”

From WEMU on Wisconsin. “Rising interest rates are taking their toll on the home buying binge in Washtenaw County. Officials with the Ann Arbor Board of Realtors say they’re seeing a reduced buyer demand – and expect July numbers will reflect a turnaround from a hot sellers’ market. The Fed’s decision to raise interest rates to tackle inflation has definitely had its impact in Washtenaw County, according to Ann Arbor Area Board of Realtors President Tracy Rose. ‘Even homes in Ann Arbor, the market has slowed down a bit. The sellers are seeing their houses stay on the market longer because there’s less demand than just a couple months ago.'”

The Daily Press in Virginia. “More than 20 years year ago, the city began scooping up chunks of land in King William County with the plan of building a reservoir that would help provide drinking water for the region. It was ambitious, costly and never should have happened — based on the flawed projection that the region didn’t have enough water for future growth. The $289 million project fell apart in 2009, but not until the city spent about $51 million and acquired nearly 1,500 acres of land. And now, Newport News has begun selling off the property, for a fraction of what it paid.”

“So far this year, the city has sold 664 of the 1,462 acres — for $849,481. It spent about $3.1 million on the same land years ago. ‘It was a huge loss,’ Councilwoman Pat Woodbury said. ‘What can we do with land up in King William County?'”

Celebrity Net Worth. “Paul Simon and Edie Brickell have sold their sprawling 32-acer estate in New Canaan, Connecticut for $10.8 million. Not exactly chump change, but unfortunately that’s about $5.7 million less than the $16.5 million Simon and Brickell paid for the property about two decades prior. The property was originally listed in 2019 for $13.9 million.”

The San Antonio Report in Texas. “Economists say runaway home prices in San Antonio should level out in the coming months, and in the future may even decrease by a little bit — a little more if there’s a recession. It’s just that those indicators of a hot market have been getting cooler every month recently. And if you follow what the economists say, winter is coming. ‘We’re 100% confident the price appreciation will slow down significantly,’ said Adam Perdue, a research economist with the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center. ‘And there could be one to two years of price declines.'”

“The way Perdue tells it, San Antonio’s price growth can be almost entirely captured by adding the city’s historic annual price growth (2-5%) to the boost in purchasing power granted by lower interest rates. ‘You could buy more with less,’ Perdue said. ‘Everyone who kept their jobs got a increase in their purchasing power as a gift from the Federal Reserve.’ That elevated purchasing power pushed prices up. And now that interest rates are rising again, ‘that gift has been more than taken away,’ Perdue said. By his calculations, homebuyers have lost almost a third of their purchasing power compared to this time last year.”

Los Angeles Daily News in California. “As mortgage interest rates and inflation rise, the housing market has started to cool. And since it takes a while for this new reality to sink in, buyers and sellers quickly find themselves playing a giant game of leapfrog. For instance, take the sellers who don’t need to move for any reason other than to harvest the earned equity in their home. If these sellers go off the recent comparable sales, or ‘comps,’ they may be led astray as to their home’s value today. Market conditions were much different even a few months ago than they are today.”

“As the market turns, the attitude and price adjustments follow. Again, it just depends on individual buyers and sellers as to how quickly that will happen. Rather than drop their asking price, sellers with no motivation other than getting a high price for their home may elect to pull their house off the market and sit out the changes. Some buyers use these unfavorable market conditions to embolden their low-ball offers. And so, the game of leapfrog begins.”

“After the temper tantrums and declarations including language unsuitable for print subside, sellers must decide how to respond. They can stick to their guns, stay on their lily pad and hold out for the market price from two months ago. They can submit a counteroffer close to or at their asking price. Or, if they really do need to sell to make their plans come true, they may counter at a price closer to the buyers’ low-ball offer. Or they can simply decline the offer all together.”

“However, when sellers can make their numbers work with a reduced price and the deal goes through, there’s now a new comp for buyers and sellers to consider.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “BMO chief economist Doug Porter highlights rapidly falling housing prices in peripheral markets while taking a bit of a victory lap, ‘For much of last year, we relentlessly harped on the wildness in Ontario housing markets in medium and small cities. One choice example was Chatham, where after decades of almost no growth, prices suddenly vaulted by roughly 90% in the first two years of the pandemic. The sprint lifted home prices in cities like this above Edmonton (which as recently as four years ago sported prices double that of Chatham), and almost to Calgary levels.'”

“‘A certain segment of analysts—i.e., almost everyone except us—assured us that this was all due to a shortage of supply, while rampaging investment demand amid rock-bottom rates had almost nothing to do with the sudden price spike. Strange how cities as widespread as Windsor, Welland, Woodstock, and Waterloo all simultaneously had a pressing supply shortage, after decades of no such talk in this region. Well, presto-changeo, the first moderate rate hikes have caused prices in these hot-house cities to suddenly plunge with precisely no change in the fundamental supply backdrop. Chatham, for instance saw a 20% price drop in the four months to June—one of the largest pullbacks in the country; and recall, this is before last week’s 100 bp mega hike weighs in. Do you suppose that in fact all along that it was out-of-control speculative demand that was the real issue?'”

From News.com.au in Australia. “A real estate coach who earlier this month said he was ‘stressed’ after almost no buyers showed up to his auctions has triumphantly declared ‘we’re back, baby!,’ after a successful Saturday of sales. But Tom Panos blasted ‘bottom feeders’ offering 50 per cent of the value of the home, declaring that even when the market goes down, ‘it doesn’t mean a home halves in value.'”

“But prices in some suburbs have already fallen by up to 30 per cent. ‘What actually happens is an acceptance of a new level of pricing in the market, where there’s enough transactions that have taken place and people say, ‘Oh that’s the new values’, and they’re fine about it when they accept it,’ he said. ‘And the reason they’re fine about it is because they realise, ‘We probably won’t get that dream price for our home, but we’re probably going to find something at a lot lower figure that we were originally forecasting.’”

“Mr Panos thanked ‘the media of Australia who are doing all of the vendor management that’s needed at the moment. Every article that’s appearing is actually helping the marketplace accept reality,’ he said. The ‘biggest problem,’ he said, was the houses that had been on the market for a while. ‘Those vendors have not accepted the new market,’ he said. ‘They’re often sort of ruminating, and saying, ‘Oh had I put it on a little bit earlier life would have been so much better.’ The new vendors, they’re coming in, they’re already educated at the time of listing.'”

“Mr Panos urged real estate agents not to be ‘rattled’ by “opportunistic buyers” offering half the property’s value. ‘To every real estate agent out there watching this, be calm and collected at the moment because I know sometimes you’re getting things that end up rattling you,’ he said. ‘Example, opportunistic buyers, bottom feeders that have heard the market’s changed, and whilst it’s changed 10-15 per cent, some of these buyers that come out of nowhere they’re offering half the price of the value of the home. ‘Oh but the market’s gone down.’ Well when the market goes down, let me tell you, it doesn’t mean a home halves in value.'”

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This Post Has 105 Comments

  1. From the 15 minute video above:

    Will rising inventory cause a market crash in San Tan Valley?
    Jul 24, 2022 Check out my website on New Construction Homes. Negotiate the best deal and get a buyer rebate!

    This is from Amy Gerrish. I think she does a good job of handling the info in a refreshing non-UHS way. I see she has done REO videos in the past so that probably has something to do with it.

  2. ‘Even homes in Ann Arbor, the market has slowed down a bit’

    Even.

    ‘‘To every real estate agent out there watching this, be calm and collected at the moment because I know sometimes you’re getting things that end up rattling you,’ he said. ‘Example, opportunistic buyers, bottom feeders that have heard the market’s changed, and whilst it’s changed 10-15 per cent, some of these buyers that come out of nowhere they’re offering half the price of the value of the home’

    That’s the spirit bottom feeders!

    1. “Even.”

      Everybody believes that their little $hithole is god’s country and its different there.

      1. “Everybody believes that their little $hithole is god’s country and its different there.”

        This is nearly a universal truth. Any suggestion otherwise is met with violent hoof and foot stamping, fist clenching and teeth gnashing. It’s truly entertaining to watch too.🤣🤣🤣

  3. ‘For much of last year, we relentlessly harped on the wildness in Ontario housing markets in medium and small cities. One choice example was Chatham, where after decades of almost no growth, prices suddenly vaulted by roughly 90% in the first two years of the pandemic’

    Of all the REIC cons over the years, this idea that a respiratory disease caused the biggest bubble blow off in history just might be the biggest con.

    1. “Of all the REIC cons over the years, this idea that a respiratory disease caused the biggest bubble blow off in history just might be the biggest con.”

      It wasn’t the respiratory disease itself that causes the bubble blow off, it was the huge gobs of money that was magically created as a response to the respiratory disease and thrown into the market that created the bubble blow off.

      Go here:

      https://www.google.com/search?q=m2+growth+rate&sxsrf=ALiCzsagJZqZ94akeuneHFXJTnGb5drktg:1658750121852&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwie0KLe_ZP5AhWGDEQIHZJFARgQ_AUoA3oECAEQBQ&biw=1088&bih=504&dpr=1.25#imgrc=1I_N8QwG-z7vRM

      1. well interestingly enough, there seem to be an awful lot of excess deaths all of a sudden and dramatic drops in births (and abortions) in highly vaxxed areas. I’m sure these are totally unrelated to the safe and effective shot of course, but it does make one wonder about future housing demand.

        1. but it does make one wonder about future housing demand

          Nuevos Americanos will take of that.

  4. President Biden’s COVID symptoms are improving, his doctor says
    July 24, 202212:13 PM ET

    Biden, who is vaccinated and double-boosted, was administered Paxlovid after his diagnosis. He completed his third full day of treatment Saturday night, the White House said.

    Foreigner – Double Vision
    https://youtu.be/t0LybviRwdY?t=84

    Feeling down ‘n’ dirty, feeling kinda mean
    I’ve been from one to another extreme
    It’s time I had a good time, ain’t got time to wait
    Faucci said get boosted and I’d still be feeling great

    [Chorus]
    Fill my eyes cause I’m double boosted
    No disguise cause I’m double boosted
    Ooh, but it got through to me, Covid is new to me
    My double boosting got the best of me

    Fell off my bike, then my leg began to bleed
    Teleprompters fuzzy and really hard to read
    Tonight’s the night, that I’m gonna try to sell it
    My dinner just got here, but I just can’t seem to smell it

    [Outro]
    Oh-ooh (oh) oh-oh, double boosted
    (Oh) I got double boosted
    (Oh, double boosted) it takes me out of my head, taking me out of my head
    (Oh, double boosted) I got double boosted, woa-oah
    (Oh, double boosted) see I’m double double, double boosted
    (Oh, double boosted) oh-oh but I’m double boosted

    1. Cardinals Players Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt Skip Toronto Trip Over Vax Requirement

      WARNER TODD HUSTON
      24 Jul 2022

      Arenado, Goldschmidt, and catcher Austin Romine have refused to take any of the various vaccines, so that excludes them from being able to enter Canada under that country’s travel restrictions, ESPN reported.

      “Arenado will lose $384,416, Goldschmidt $241,758 and Romine $10,989,” ESPN reported. “All three players will be placed on the restricted list and will not be paid or accrue major league service time for the two games, according to a March agreement between Major League Baseball and the players’ association.”

    2. “Biden, who is vaccinated and double-boosted, was administered Paxlovid after his diagnosis.”

      That’s what grandma was given following her BA.5 infection.

  5. ‘When that buyer fell through and the condo hit the market again in June: crickets. Friedman said the condo is already listed for $5,000 below its appraised value. ‘We’re having to adjust to a new normal,’ Friedman said. ‘It’s difficult for sellers who listed a month or two ago because they’re still thinking that they’ve got the winning lottery ticket’

    How realistic was it that these crappy apartments in a sh$t hole of a city were winning lottery tickets?

  6. ‘After the temper tantrums and declarations including language unsuitable for print subside, sellers must decide how to respond. They can stick to their guns, stay on their lily pad and hold out for the market price from two months ago. They can submit a counteroffer close to or at their asking price. Or, if they really do need to sell to make their plans come true, they may counter at a price closer to the buyers’ low-ball offer’

    Hey sellers, how’s it feel when people talk about you like you aren’t in the room?

    Low ball offers Thornberg? It’s crow time!

  7. “so how much is a lowball offer”

    Start with construction cost. Adjust for depreciation and condition which is typically a third lower than construction cost. That’s where market value is. Something under that market value is a “lowball” offer.

    Sacramento, CA Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY As California’s Fraud Riddled Housing Market Implodes

    https://www.movoto.com/ca/95832/market-trends/

    1. Are you saying plywood doesn’t wildly increase in value as it ages? WTF?? You sir, clearly don’t understand the new financial economy.

      Buy now or be priced out forever!!

  8. We must sell off America to the highest bidder, especially to buyers affiliated with the DNC’s ideological mentors in the CCP.

    How China sunk its teeth into US farmland: Firms tied to communist regime own 192,000 agricultural acres across America worth $1.9bn and purchased 300 acres in North Dakota 20 minutes from military base

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11044615/China-purchased-300-acres-North-Dakota-20-minutes-military-base-causing-security-concerns.html

    A Chinese company purchased hundreds of acres of North Dakota farmland mere minutes from a major US Air Force base, prompting national security fears as the communist country adds to its nearly 200,000 acres of US agricultural land worth $1.9 billion.

    The China-based food producer, Fufeng Group, plans to build a corn-milling plant on its newly acquired 300 acres of land in Grand Forks, just 20 minutes down the road from the Grand Forks Air Force Base, where some of the nation’s most sensitive drone technology is based.

    1. plans to build a corn-milling plant

      There is a very good chance they will eventually sell at a great loss.

    2. “How China sunk its teeth into US farmland: Firms tied to communist regime own 192,000 agricultural acres across America worth $1.9bn and purchased 300 acres in North Dakota 20 minutes from military base”.

      Farmland purchases include water rights. Normally, very large amounts of water rights.

      Just ask Bill Gates.

  9. I got a Donk she ain’t go no equity,
    A lyin’ realtor was her friend.
    I got a Donk she ain’t go no equity,
    A lyin’ realtor was her friend.

    Stamping her feet in circles,
    Losses gonna rise like a bird up in the sky,
    Stamping her feet in circles,
    Losses gonna rise like a bird up in the sky.

    https://youtu.be/ghj5V5cUo1s
    Billy Preston – Will It Go Round in Circles

    Lone Tree, CO Housing Prices Crater 26% YOY As Desperate Sellers Send Inventory Soaring And Prices Plunging Across Denver Area

    https://www.movoto.com/lone-tree-co/market-trends/

  10. Cry it out, FBs.

    Kiwis in tears as New Zealand house prices plunge

    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/07/kiwis-tears-as-new-zealand-house-prices-plunge/

    New Zealand house prices are tanking.

    Following 2.25% of rate hikes from the Reserve Bank, the REINZ House Price Index plummeted 5.4% over the June quarter, with every major urban district registering losses.

    In a similar vein, June’s Trade Me property index posted a “record breaking” monthly fall of 1.9% amid “skyrocketing supply”.

    The scale of decline has reduced many Kiwi vendors to tears, according to Harcourts real estate consultant Alison Hawkes.

  11. A reader sent these in:

    Fastest two year home price increase in history. Fastest 30 year mortgage increase in history – highest rate in 14 years. Lowest home buyer sentiment on record. Equals “Soft landing”. Sure.

    https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1551247625634168832

    Looks like Smokey said it’s time to gtfo out of needletown

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/33-Mountain-Spring-Ave-San-Francisco-CA-94114/15129727_zpid/

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1550936980367851526

    Greater Toronto home values are in collapse mode.

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1551198000864808960

    Just 9 homes sold in Greater Toronto Area on a Saturday. 🚩🚩🚩🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🤡🚩🤔🚩🤔🚩🤔🚩🤔🚩🤔🤔🚩

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1551302321463857152

    Oh, Vegas

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1551420479143026689

    Just a casual $425K loss over 5 months for the buyer/seller (before R/E + HST & possibly a mortgage prepayment penalty). Assuming the buyer obtained 80% financing on the $1.425M acquisition, the lender, after R/E + HST will be reporting a $200K loss.🌋

    https://twitter.com/DanielVyner/status/1551317901248004097

    The more you peal the onion of Chinese Real Estate, the worst it gets, the more it stinks.

    These issues get solved by PRICE. And when it is this bad, PRICE usually moves LEFT.

    https://twitter.com/Bellehos/status/1551352737585135620

    Real estate agents/brokers: what are you seeing in your local housing market right now? 🏡 If you’d like to stay anonymous, DM me and I’ll share below.

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1551339624878018560

  13. Jul 25, 2022 Here on Oahu in today’s shifting housing market, overpricing your home is a big big big mistake!

    And I’m gonna tell you why! Of course, if you’re a seller, you wanna maximize your sales price, minimize the hassles, and sell your house as quickly as possible. But while we’re still in a sellers’ market, things have changed from just a few months ago, and you need to consider how to price your house based on where we are right now.

    Here are a few of the benefits of pricing your house right. When you price it at market value, you’ll help boost interest in your home so you can attract more buyers. And when you do, you’ll maximize your sales price. Plus, when you price your home right, it’ll sell faster.

    That’s why you don’t wanna overshoot your target price. Price it too high, and it’ll sit on the market or require a price reduction. Price it too low, and it may lead buyers to think something’s wrong.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfkyxbuotyU

    1:47.

  14. More homes are being listed in Phoenix than anywhere else in the US
    12 News
    Jul 25, 2022 For months, we’ve told you about the housing shortage, and that there were too few houses on the market for all the interested buyers

    But new data from RE/MAX shows the number of new listings in Phoenix jumped 34% compared to June last year more than any other metro area in the country.

    2:25. It’s 156% they say.

    1. Some videos i saw in the last few days showed almost 25% of the houses for sale in Phoenix are owned by iBuyers (opendoor, etc) and opendoor alone has like 1300 listings in just Phoenix.

  15. As a noted economist explained, “Equity is meaningless considering each dollar of equity cost the borrower between $3 and $5 to acquire. Housing is a horrific loss even when bought under the best of circumstances.”

    He’s right.

    Ventura, CA Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY As SoCal Homeowners Get Barbecued

    https://www.movoto.com/ca/93003/market-trends/

    1. The Financial Times
      California Public Employees’ Retirement System
      Calpers records first loss since 2009 in ‘tumultuous’ markets
      Largest US pension plan says traditional diversification strategies proved ‘less effective’
      On Wednesday, Calpers, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, reported a 6.1% loss for the year to June 30
      Josephine Cumbo July 20 2022

      Calpers, the largest public pension plan in the US, has blamed “tumultuous” global markets for the fund’s first annual loss since the global financial crisis in 2009.

      The California Public Employees’ Retirement System, which manages pension and health benefits for 2mn California public employees, retirees, and their families, reported on Wednesday a preliminary 6.1 per cent loss for the financial year to June 30. At year end, its total assets stood at $440bn, down from $469bn a year ago, with the plan’s funded status slipping to 72 per cent from 80 per cent in the previous period.

      In reporting the loss, Nicole Musicco, chief investment officer, said the plan’s traditional diversification strategies had been “less effective” than expected over the reporting period.
      …

    2. June 30, 2022 4:25 AM PDT
      Last Updated 25 days ago
      Bonds in line for worst year in decades
      By Yoruk Bahceli
      3 minute read
      South Korean won, Chinese yuan and Japanese yen notes are seen on U.S. $100 notes in this file photo illustration shot December 15, 2015.

      Summary
      – U.S. Treasuries down 11%, set for worst year since at least 1973
      – Euro zone govt, corporate bonds also see double-digit losses
      – Most of Treasury sell-off likely over, but outlook hard to read

      June 30 (Reuters) – If dramatic losses seen in the first half of 2022 are maintained over the coming months, U.S. and European government bond markets are set for their worst year in decades in another sign the long bond bull-run may be over.

      Central banks, after dismissing high inflation as transitory until late 2021, have switched to panic mode, cranking up the speed of policy tightening to stamp out galloping price growth.

      U.S. Treasuries, the global fixed income benchmark, have delivered total year-to-date losses of 11%, setting them on course for the worst year on record, according to an ICE BofA index tracking seven- to 10-year Treasuries since 1973.

      That also marks the worst first half performance since 1788, Deutsche Bank estimates.

      German bonds are down 12.5% and overall euro zone government bonds 13%, seven- to 10-year ICE BofA indexes going back to 1986 show.

      “(The bond sell-off) has been completely driven by the shift in central banks’ policy and in their rhetoric,” said Camille de Courcel, BNP Paribas’s head of strategy for G10 rates in Europe.

      Bonds of top-rated U.S. and European companies are also deep in the red, down 14% and 12.5% respectively, their biggest losses on record going back to 1997.

      Their “junk” peers – rated sub-investment grade – have endured their worst drop since 2008.
      …
      https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/brutal-first-half-puts-bonds-line-worst-year-decades-2022-06-30/

      1. Some say more money has already been lost in crypto than in MBS during the great recession. At some point it will matter.

  17. I’m 100% certain the financial journalist forgot the inflation adjustment in carrying out their loss calculation.

    “Paul Simon and Edie Brickell have sold their sprawling 32-acer estate in New Canaan, Connecticut for $10.8 million. Not exactly chump change, but unfortunately that’s about $5.7 million less than the $16.5 million Simon and Brickell paid for the property about two decades prior.”

    3. I do not feel the least bit of sympathy for doctors dying from the jab. These scvmbags are the problem. If they would have done their job, we wouldn’t be where we are today. Instead, they decided to serve the globalists in the name of personal greed. Fock ’em.

      1. How does this go on and media says nothing? We’ve never given vaccines to pregnant women. Much less financially coerced them. Infants. And this isn’t even a vaccine. Yes, doctors should stand up and many have. But this looks more like a huge tragedy every day.

        1. The globalist owned media is doing it intentionally, not just suppressing all the info, but actively pushing a lying narrative. Just this am I saw a headline stating that you’re 3.5X more likely to die of the woohoo if you are not “vaxxed.” These people are evil.

          Then you have the dumbed-down sheep with TDS as their bootlicking water carriers, because sites are just littered with these subhuman scvm ranting about the past administration. We’re fooked.

        3. Nuremburg Trials v2.0

          And I will personally volunteer to conduct the executions. See also: the torture scene in the film Syriana and in the TeeVee show Narcos.

          These globalists need a slow, prolonged death.

          “They’re not sending their best”

          1. These globalists need a slow, prolonged death.

            To be hanged, drawn and quartered became a statutory penalty for men convicted of high treason in the Kingdom of England from 1352 under King Edward III (1327–1377), although similar rituals are recorded during the reign of King Henry III (1216–1272). The convicted traitor was fastened to a hurdle, or wooden panel, and drawn by horse to the place of execution, where he was then hanged (almost to the point of death), emasculated, disembowelled, beheaded, and quartered (chopped into four pieces). His remains would then often be displayed in prominent places across the country, such as London Bridge, to serve as a warning of the fate of traitors.

          2. These globalists need a slow, prolonged death.

            To be hanged, drawn and quartered

            You’re no friend of the US Constitution if you support this.

          3. You’re no friend of the US Constitution if you support this.

            Neither are the globalists. Fight fire with fire. Paint the streets red with their blood and guts. No sympathy from me. You’re talking to the wrong guy.

          4. You’re no friend of the US Constitution if you support this.

            After a trial comporting with the US Constitution, they deserve no less.

      2. Instead, they decided to serve the globalists in the name of personal greed. Fock ’em.

        A long term trend I have noticed is doctors selling their practices to large healthcare conglomerates, transforming themselves into employees of said conglomerates. My Banner Health controlled GP told me that the jab was safe and effective and that I was an idiot for refusing it. I have found a new GP who still has a private practice and I am switching.

        1. This is a good example of bad money driving good money out. Or looked at in a different way, fake money wrecking traditionally conservative business. Fiat currencies and democracies cannot last, human nature wont allow it.

  19. 7/1/2022 Sold $10,800,000

    CPI-U
    4/2002 179.300
    6/2022 295.328

    Inflation-adjusted loss:

    1 – (179.300/295.328)*(10.8/16.5) = 60.3%

    Methinks entertainers should stick with entertaining and leave real estate investing to the pros.

    1. The yield curves have seemed to invert many times over the past few years. I’ve never really seen them as a reason for concern at all.

    2. The yield on 1lb of lobster is about 20%. Think twice before buying cooked and shucked lobster v. live.

      1. About $40/lb here locally for the meat. Lobster prices have a ceiling. I can get a lot of chicken or beef for $40 comparatively.

        1. Vantage Point: Economic Outlook
          July 22 2022
          Why recession is now ‘almost 100 per cent certain’
          Aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve is seen as a driver for worries about a recession
          By David Thorpe

          The latest economic data points emerging from the US indicate a recession “is almost 100 per cent certain”, according to Dickie Hodges, a bond fund manager at Nomura.

          Hodges made his name as a manager at Legal and General and now runs the £2.5bn Nomura Global Dynamic Bond fund which at one point in 2021 was attracting net inflows of around £35m a week.

          But since then bond prices have fallen sharply (and so yields have risen) as market participants have scrambled to protect themselves from higher inflation.

          However, while yields have risen they have in no way kept pace with inflation, and in recent weeks the yields on many developed market government bonds have actually fallen (meaning the price has risen), despite US inflation hitting more than 9 per cent.

          But Hodges believes that latest inflation number will represent the “peak”, as deteriorating economic conditions mean economic growth slows and the level of aggregate demand in the economy falls.

          Hodges said: “Investment banks have moved from a 10 per cent to a north of 50 per cent chance of recession in the next year. But I think it is almost a 100 per cent chance.

          “Almost all of the economic data we are seeing around consumption levels, around people defaulting on debt, points to recession. The economic data that has been more positive is backward-looking, the data that is about present conditions is negative.”
          …
          https://www.ftadviser.com/investments/2022/07/22/why-recession-is-now-almost-100-per-cent-certain/

        2. Whole live are $7 a pound at market basket this week. They cook for free. I was up your way last week and stopped at PJ Merrills…. Theyre still selling cooked and shucked for $60.

    4. The Financial Times
      Chinese economy
      Inverted yield curve in China savings rates signals sustained economic slowdown
      Lack of lending opportunities points to prolonged weakness in growth, warn bank officials
      A man walks outside a branch of the ICBC bank in Beijing
      China’s economy narrowly escaped a contraction in the second quarter
      Sun Yu in Beijing yesterday

      Some of China’s largest banks are offering a lower interest rate on long-term deposits compared with short-term as a dearth of quality lending opportunities points to a sustained slowdown in the engine of global economic growth.

      China’s top four state lenders, led by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, in June started setting the interest rate for three-year deposits up to 40 basis points higher than those for five-year deposits. Several other national lenders, including China Merchants Bank, have put the rates at the same level.

      Savers normally get more interest the longer they tie up their money. An inverted yield curve is a closely watched signal of recession risk in Treasury markets.
      …

  21. Anybody else notice how climate change is being blamed for all of the fires in CA, yet they are ARSON?

    2. We just got back from Shaver Lake, which suffered a tragic fire 2 years ago. We could see smoke from the Yosemite fire when we were on the lake. Mismanagement of the forest is the real problem. I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that Soros funds the greenies so they can blame the fires on climate change.

      2. I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that Soros funds the greenies so they can blame the fires on climate change.

        You have to hand it to the bad guys, they are a well oiled machine.

  22. ‘I think we’ll see a lot of newer Realtors who started during the pandemic going back to other professions,’ Gauthier said.”

    I know a kid that quit mechanical engineering school to become a realtor about 18 months ago. He just talked his younger brother into quitting school and joining him.

    2. Their parents will save a bundle in college tuition, but they’ll have to keep that basement handy.

    1. Should have been “peon”.

      Funny hearing about breathing from the person stepping on your neck.
      President Biden
      @POTUS
      United States government official
      For American families looking for a little more breathing room, these savings matter.

    3. It’s becoming more and more clear that the cabal is growing tired of dissent. Those who still have something left to lose are keeping their heads down, hoping to not be noticed and left alone. They will be disappointed.

      Others pretend that nothing is happening and distract themselves with sportsball, TV and overeating.

      And then there are those who revel in the rising depravity and lawlessness.

    5. 44-year-old Brandy Vaughan

      At the conclusion of the Coroner’s months long investigation, the Office determined the manner of her death to be Natural

      Coroner’s Office Releases Findings in Brandy Vaughan Death Investigation

      Posted February 18, 2021

      Santa Barbara, Calif. – The Santa Barbara County Sheriff’s Coroner’s Office has completed the death investigation of local community activist Brandy Vaughan. The Coroner’s Office has determined that she died from natural causes.

      On December 7, 2020, 44-year-old Brandy Vaughan, a resident of Santa Barbara City, was found down in the bathroom of her East Sola St. residence. Paramedics were summoned and life saving measures were initiated, but were unsuccessful. The Santa Barbara City Police Department responded to the scene and investigated the circumstances surrounding her death. Their investigation found no signs of foul play or anything suspicious to warrant further investigation. Since Vaughan’s death occurred outside the direct care of a medical doctor, the investigation was turned over to the Sheriff / Coroner to determine the cause and manner of death.

      The Sheriff’s Coroner’s Office conducted a thorough investigation which included an autopsy, in depth toxicology screening, interviews and medical record review. At the conclusion of the Coroner’s months long investigation, the Office determined the manner of her death to be Natural, caused by bi-lateral Pulmonary Thromboembolus. The Coroner’s Office has concluded this investigation, and will be finalizing reports and updating the State of California death certificate accordingly.

      https://www.sbsheriff.org/coroners-office-releases-findings-in-brandy-vaughan-death-investigation/

    1. 🤣🤣🤣

      That’s no where near the blaze that occurs when these electric cars go up in flames.

  26. “The messiness of American politics post-Roe v. Wade erupted at the Indiana Statehouse on Monday as thousands of abortion rights protesters swarmed into the building and chanted outside the senate’s doors.”

    Thousands swarmed into the Statehouse building? That sounds like an insurrection.

    “After POLITICO reported Bopp’s comments, Walker’s wife, the Republican consultant Jennifer Hallowell, expressed outrage in a Twitter post, writing that: “Some believe your 10-year-old daughter or granddaughter should be forced to carry her rapist’s baby and become a mother.”

    Maybe try raising your daughters better so they aren’t getting pregnant at age 10, globalist groomer.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/25/indiana-protesters-lawmakers-abortion-ban-00047797

    The November 2022 Red Wave needs to drown all these Godless communist baby killer globalists.

    Globalists rape kids, this is the Democrat Party.

  27. Bear in the hood!
    Bear in the hood!
    🙂

    ‘That’s a bear staring right at me!’: Man comes face to face with black bear in Jupiter

    7:04 AM EDT Jul 25, 2022

    JUPITER, Fla. —
    A juvenile black bear was spotted in Palm Beach County, and a Jupiter resident who came face to face with it says he was shocked.

    Doug Covin said Saturday was a normal day. He was spending time in his backyard off of April Lane, just north of Center Street. He says at around 11:40 a.m., he saw a black bear in a tree just feet away from him.

    “I heard a small noise. A branch broke,” Covin said. “I look up and there’s a 150-pound black bear, maybe 10 feet from me, staring at me.

    https://www.wpbf.com/article/man-comes-face-to-face-with-black-bear-jupiter/40697232

    1. My SIL stumbled across a bear on Saturday. I got a picture of it on some rocks in the lake! It was probably around 2 years old.

      1. I have been in this area since 1982 and that’s the first bear sighting I’ve heard of. Occasionally a gator will snack on a small dog that got too close to the neighborhood water hazard, sharks will nibble on surfers ankles that got mistaken for a fish, heard about Coyote sightings and saw some wild hogs crossing US1 by County Line Road but that’s the first bear.

        1. I’ve seen state conservation authorities transplant them to restore their former natural range.

  28. The Hill — Nearly one in three Americans say it may soon be necessary to take up arms against the government (7/24/2022):

    “A majority of Americans say the U.S. government is corrupt and almost a third say it may soon be necessary to take up arms against it, according to a new poll from the University of Chicago’s Institute of Politics.

    Twenty-eight percent of all voters, including 37 percent of gun owners, agreed “it may be necessary at some point soon for citizens to take up arms against the government,” a view held by around 35 percent of Republicans and around 35 percent of Independents.

    The findings come after a House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, riots at the U.S. Capitol wrapped up its final hearing for the summer, seeking to place former President Trump at the heart of efforts to overturn the 2020 election.”

    The 2020 election was stolen.

    “Despite the hearings, Trump still enjoys broad support among Republicans, who are more concerned about inflation, education and crime than they are about Jan. 6.”

    Nobody outside the DeeCee Beltway is even watching any of this Clown Show.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/3572278-nearly-one-in-three-americans-say-it-may-soon-be-necessary-to-take-up-arms-against-the-government/

    As always, aim for the Blue Checkmarks 🙂

    1. “ULTRA Trump Derangement Syndrome” 🙂

      That guy is good, haven’t seen him in a while.

  30. Economist Roubini: ‘Severe’ Recession, Financial Crisis Coming
    What we’ll face amounts to a stagflationary debt crisis, combining the worst of the 1970s and 2008, Nouriel Roubini said.

    https://www.thestreet.com/investing/roubini-severe-economic-financial-crisis?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

    (some excerpts)

    Summers and most other economists who expect a recession believe it will be mild, but Nouriel Roubini, chief executive of Roubini Macro Associates, isn’t one of them.

    “There are many reasons why we are going to have a severe recession and a severe debt and financial crisis,” Roubini, one of the experts who predicted the financial meltdown of 2008-09, told Bloomberg July 25. “The idea that this is going to be short and shallow is totally delusional.”

    In a recent piece on Project Syndicate, he compared the current predicament to the 1970s and 2008. “The next crisis will not be like its predecessors,” Roubini wrote.

    Combination of Past Crises

    “In the 1970s, we had stagflation, but no massive debt crises, because debt levels were low. After 2008, we had a debt crisis, followed by low inflation or deflation, because the credit crunch had generated a negative demand shock.”

    So what do we have in store for ourselves next?

    “Today, we face supply shocks in a context of much higher debt levels, implying that we are heading for a combination of 1970s-style stagflation and 2008-style debt crises – that is, a stagflationary debt crisis,” Roubini said.

    For fiscal 2021, ended Sept. 30, the budget deficit totaled 12% of GDP, the second worst ratio (after 2020) since 1945.

    As for U.S. stocks “most likely, they will plunge lower,” Roubini said. “In typical plain-vanilla recessions, U.S. and global equities tend to fall by about 35%,” he noted.

    “But, because the next recession will be both stagflationary and accompanied by a financial crisis, the crash in equity markets could be closer to 50%.”

  31. I’ve posted this one before. It’s been relisted with virtual landscaping! 🤣😂🤣 12759 Beeler Creek Trl, Poway, CA 92064
    07/23/2022 Listed $1,599,000 $513 CRMLS
    06/10/2022 Price Changed $1,599,000 $662 CRMLS
    05/18/2022 Price Changed $1,725,000 $714 CRMLS
    04/29/2022 Listed $1,699,000 $703 CRMLS

    1. Utopia Vaccine Scene 4m58s
      Well, “they” always tell you what they are going to do.
      Didn’t watch the America version, spoiled by the original British (two seasons), so good. The music, the colors, the dialog, the murderous raisin guy are 👍🏻
      Available on Amazon Prime, youtube channel TheOncomingStorm.

      First episode:
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8Vu3Hyv_Vk

  35. Did the Fed accidentally drive rents through the roof?

    Predictable result: More homeless people who can’t afford a place to live in.

    1. The Financial Times
      US Inflation
      Rising rents mean no shelter for Americans from inflation storm
      Double-digit cost boosts for housing are hampering the Fed’s efforts to contain consumer price increases
      A ‘For Rent’ sign is posted near a home on February 7 2022 in Houston, Texas
      Rents are up nearly 40 per cent since January 2021.
      Alexandra White in New York, Colby Smith in Washington and Caitlin Gilbert in London July 23 2022

      In Eric Farmelant’s nearly decade-long career as a real estate broker in Miami, he had never witnessed renters engage in bidding wars over rental properties until the coronavirus pandemic fuelled scorching demand for beachfront housing in Florida. He can no longer show four or five listings to clients because many of the properties are being rented sight unseen.

      “You’re seeing renters putting down a year’s worth of rent up front to get their offer accepted,” said Farmelant, who works for Ibis Realty Group.

      Rents, in turn, are up nearly 40 per cent since January 2021, according to Apartment List, indicative of a broader trend that has gripped the country.
      …

      1. Have US rents ever previously risen by 40 percent in one year?

        I’m guessing not.

    2. We saw a number of tents along the freeways through and around LA this last weekend.

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