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How Low Will Prices Go?

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  1. From the first two minute video:

    Las Vegas Real Estate 1800 Price Reductions Only 700 Sold! Whats Happening?
    Jul 26, 2022
    Why such a huge discrepancy

    Home sellers, the comps from April and March are not the true comps for your home any more.

    The home buyers that bought those homes are paying almost half of the rate of what the current buyers are today

    Especially the seccond home loan and investor loans those rates went through the roof.

    Thats a big market for Vegas.

    Then you have the hedge funds that cut their Buy Box on the average house by nearly $100,000.

    Many of those comps you see, most of those buyers would not pay those prices with today’s rates, even if they could still qualify for the loan.

    We know the hedge funds are paying about a $100,000 less for houses that they paid 500k, they are now down to 400k.

    Sellers when your realtor calls you to reduce your price don’t negotiate with them If they say 50k don’t do 25k.

    We are in the trenches in real time, we see the lock box data if homes are not being shown at certain prices we know no offers are coming.

    What we’re seeing right now is sellers reducing their homes to what they should have been 30 days ago and they are 30 days behind the current curve.

    Many sellers are catching the curve down and not getting ahead of it.

    The fed told you housing needs a reset. That’s exactly what Fed is doing.

    Buyer’s think it’s March of 2007

    The sellers think it’s March of 2022

    The truth is it’s somewhere in the middle.

    Right now the sellers can determine the price that they sell for if they are aggressive.

    Over the next 60 to 90 days there will be sellers that need to sell their house.

    They will sell it for less than what you wanted then your stuck with those comps

    You definitely don’t want to be on the market as a seller come this October

    The fed’s housing reset will be in full effect

    The second 13 minute video:

    How Low Will Home Prices Go In Brampton, Mississauga & Durham Real Estate? – July 20
    Team Sessa Real Estate
    Jul 27, 2022

    Brampton, Mississauga, Ajax, Whitby, Pickering Real Estate Market Report for the week of July 14 – July 20, 2022. This video will focus specifically on Brampton, Mississauga, Ajax, Whitby, Pickering.

    1. The first video (Vegas) is about the most downer (realistic) UHS I”ve seen. He clearly sees the reality and says “you gotta get ahead” (which of course means more price cuts are coming). Once the first lowballer goes, then all the comps reset, so more price cuts coming and his last little note about October is awful interesting.

  2. Orange County Register
    Fed’s inflation battle crashes California confidence in bubble-sized drop

    ‘The Federal Reserve’s strategy to cool inflation and tame exuberant spending is working. Californians’ views of their financial futures took their biggest drop in nearly 14 years. You know, back when the last bubble burst into the Great Recession.’

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/fed-e2-80-99s-inflation-battle-crashes-california-confidence-in-bubble-sized-drop/ar-AA102oIG

  3. ‘Another week, another round of bad news for a U.S. housing market under pressure. For the fourth week in a row, mortgage applications, a measure of loan application volume, fell. New applications fell 1.8%, seasonally adjusted, from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.’

    ‘It’s the lowest level of activity the MBA has seen since February 2000, the last year of BIll Clinton’s presidency.’

    ‘Meanwhile, the Refinance Index decreased 4% week to week and remained 83% lower than it was during the same week a year ago.’

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/the-last-time-the-housing-market-was-this-slow-bill-clinton-was-president/ar-AA102lIe

  4. ‘The Austin housing market has seen 32.4% of listings undergo price reductions. The current median home list price sits at $620,000. The price slashing comes as high prices and mortgage rates scare many homebuyers away.’

    ‘In first place on the list is Reno, Nevada, with a slightly higher amount of 32.6% of listings experiencing price slashes. Phoenix, Arizona, takes third place with 29.5%, and Anchorage, Alaska, takes fourth place with 28.5%.’

    ‘Following behind Anchorage is Boise, Idaho; then Ogden, Utah; then Sacramento, California; then Colorado Springs, Colorado; then Evansville, Indiana; and Medford, Oregon, rounds out the top 10.’

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/austin-ranks-second-in-nation-for-home-price-slashing-according-to-realtorcom/ar-AA10245p

  5. Exclusive: Robbed at gunpoint, prominent Bay Area CEO urges San Francisco leaders to make public safety top priority
    The Business Journals|13 hours ago
    CEO Hamid Moghadam was robbed at gunpoint in his tony Pacific Heights neighborhood.

    2. I wonder how long until Larry Ellison builds a subdevelopment on his 100+ sq mile island? Maybe it could be called “People Who Matter Hills”?

      From what I have heard, Ellison rarely leaves his island enclave. He has a mansion with a private golf course near Palm Springs and other mansions elsewhere.

    1. “Chinese authorities cracked down on excessive debt in the property sector in 2020, leaving major players such as Evergrande and Sunac struggling to make payments and forcing them to renegotiate with creditors as they teetered on the edge of bankruptcy.”

      What does “renegotiate” actually mean in China…convert 20-yr loans to 30-yrs, or liquidate the mansion(s), trophy wife and the Gulfstream jet?

    1. I bought a nearly new spec house in 2003. By 2016 the HVAC heat pump needed a full replacement. In 2020 all of the windows were replaced. Then, in early 2022 the roof was replaced, and it had been repaired several times the last couple of years. Moral of the story, shacks depreciate from day one.

      And still on the to-do list, the carpeting is shot, probably looks WW3 if you had a microscope. The bathrooms both need flooring and toilet replacement. Meanwhile, the $10k per semester college tuition continues. Finally like Pacific Salmon you die.

      2. college tuition continues. Finally like Pacific Salmon

        One of the indicators of successful parenting is surviving it. Salmon die at spawning, so you’re ahead of the game.

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