A report from Bisnow on Massachusetts. "Recession alarm bells are ringing in one Boston real…
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From the first 3 minute video:
WESTLAKE VILLAGE
Housing Market Update | Westlake Village | Thousand Oaks | Simi Valley | Moorpark This is the BEST video to find out what is going on in the WESTLAKE VILLAGE, THOUSAND OAKS, SIMI VALLEY, and MOORPARK housing markets.
The second nine minute video:
My plan backfired. The real estate market has turned.
Jul 29, 2022
Today we walk through one of my most recent real estate investment projects. I initially bought this property to flip for a quick profit, but as the real estate market began to turn, I found myself in a position where I need to pivot into a full remodel. After the remodel, I still hope to sell this home for a profit but if the market continues to soften, I may need to convert it into a rental and hold onto the deal long term.
The second video is hilarious. This realtor stupidly bought a 1959 starter dump for $525K during the frenzy and expected to flip it. (6719 E. Wilshire in Scottsdale.) He then wanted to spend $250K on a massive addition and then sell for $1.2 million. Now he’s looking at a light remodel for $40K and renting it out. Actually that’s probably a better idea.
What’s even more hilarious is that ANYone in Scottsdale would pay a million bucks for a starter dump in a dumpy nabe, addition or no. Much nicer houses are going for that same million in pricey Bethesda MD and McLean, VA, areas have the actual jobs to support the prices.
Not just FedGov, but all the defense contractors and other contractors and cybersecurity and lawyers and lobbyists that go with gov, plus some corporate HQ (unlike LIC, Arlington didn’t chase Amazon out) and lots of health care — and all the high-end bankers and financial advisors that follow money.
These cities are most at risk of housing downturn if recession hits
Here’s how the top 10 cities ranked
Riverside, California — risk score of 84.
Boise, Idaho — 76.9.
Cape Coral, Florida — 76.7.
North Port, Florida — 75.
Las Vegas — 74.2.
Sacramento, California — 73.1.
Bakersfield, California — 72.2
Phoenix — 72
Tampa, Florida — 70.7
Tucson, Arizona — 70.1
To determine which areas made the list, Redfin analyzed 98 major housing markets in the U.S. The ranking combines 10 indicators to come up with an overall risk score, with the highest possible score being 100 and the lowest 0.
The indicators Redfin considered are: home price volatility, average debt-to-income ratio, average home-loan-to-value ratio, labor market shock, percent of homes flipped, how much the housing market is “cooling” compared with other metros, year-over-year change in domestic migration, share of homes in the metro that are second homes, year-over-year price growth and elasticity of supply.
Americans have tacked on a more than $1.7 trillion in household debt since the pandemic began. Dig into that eye-popping number, and an increasingly unequal America emerges.
‘The numbers may be bewilderingly large, but what stands out as unusual to Fed economist Andy Haughwout is that Americans kept piling on household debt even as the country went into a recession in the spring of 2020.’
“That is in stark contrast to the Great Financial Crisis, where we saw households shedding debt, paying off debt either by defaulting on obligations [and facing foreclosure], but also just paying them down,” Haughwout said. “In this case, we see debt continuing to grow.”
“[Despite] all the data that looks like maybe we’re doing okay at this moment,” Smith-Ramani said, “when I talk to credit counselors, they’re sort of panicked about third quarter of this year.”
‘Black Knight Inc. said Monday that year-over-year home price growth in June dropped by nearly two percentage points, which the data analytics company said was the “greatest single-month slowdown on record” since at least the early 1970s. Black Knight said the slowdown to 17.3% annual home price growth in June from 19.3% was broad based was a record by far, “and it wasn’t even close,” said Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske; in comparison, the strongest single-month slowing during the 2006 housing downturn was 1.19 percentage points. The slowdown comes along with a 22% increase in the number of homes listed for sale the past two months, which was the biggest inventory gain in 12 years. The company said the “clear driver” of the inventory gains is a decline in sales activity, resulting from the lowest levels of home affordability in nearly 40 years due to rising interest rates.’
‘The Commerce Department said on Monday that construction spending dropped 1.1% in June after gaining 0.1% in May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast construction spending would rise 0.1%.’
‘Investment in residential construction dropped 1.6%, with spending on single-family projects plunging 3.1%.’
and the following is the reason for our current documentary –
(from twitter)
‘cleve lamison
@lamison
americans are fleeing the country, moving to europe and mexico.
6:59 PM · Aug 1, 2022·Twitter Web App
270
Retweets
76
Quote Tweets
2,199
Likes
11h
Replying to
@lamison
bloomberg.com
Americans Who Can’t Afford Homes Are Moving to Europe Instead
Prohibitive housing prices, a strong dollar and political rancor have contributed to a wave of Americans relocating to Europe.
Hands up everybody who knows someone who moved to Europe.
‘Hands up everybody who knows someone who moved to Europe’.-
Log on the ‘InterNations’ the Expat network –
and we just interviewed a Couple from Laguna Beach CA who moved close to St Maxime in the South of France and next will be a family of four moving to the Bodensee as the University of Konstanz will save them nearly 60 000$ each year for the kids to study and the rent for their apartment in Meersburg is about half what they payed in Irvine CA.
“Hands up everybody who knows someone who moved to Europe.”
Nobody. Because nobody wants to live in a third world shithole.
Happy Valley OR Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY As Oregon’s Appraisal Fraud Riddled Housing Market Staggers
‘Nobody. Because nobody wants to live in a third world shithole’.
Well –
the couple form Laguna Beach who sold their house for 4Mill75 and bought a much bigger one above St Maxime for 3Mill225
is very happy with the South of France – not so much with the amount of tourists there and the difficulties to learn French BUT they love their 1800 Olive trees and will come out with their own brand of Olive Oil next year – to be exported to ‘the homeland’.
and about s…holes –
‘Can you see yourself living in the world’s favourite tourist destination? More than 70 million visitors a year come to France on vacation, but for at least 150,000 Americans it’s home. Few regret the decision. Overall, 79% of expats who move to France are happy with their choice, and if you’re moving to the French countryside in particular, a whole new lifestyle beckons’.
(from another expat site)
and how about this:
‘For Jamie Dixon, 37, moving to Portugal from Los Angeles last July with her seven-year-old daughter and husband was made possible by the switch to a remote job and getting a permanent residency visa which required having a lease, a bank account and health insurance in the country.
Initially living in a two-bedroom mobile home in Malibu, California, the director of operations for a tech startup couldn’t afford to fulfill her dream of buying land with her friends to build a communal living area in LA.
A new remote job allowed her to leave the city and move to a 2,000-euro-a-month, three-bedroom, three-bathroom apartment with a private rooftop in Cascais, a coastal city with a large expat population.
Besides the cheap cost of living, Dixon said her family now has access to a broader multilingual international community and less stress related to crime rates or politics.
“Violence has gone up so much in the US,” she said. “I wanted to give my kid a normal childhood.”
Nobody wants to live in a third world shithole.
Happy Valley OR Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY As Oregon’s Appraisal Fraud Riddled Housing Market Staggers
We always enjoyed driving to France on the weekend. Great food, nice people and lovely scenery. We stayed out of the big cities and roamed the smaller cities and towns. We especially loved Reims and the champagne country. It was always great to get out of Germany.
For me, it’s a little scary because I’ve been following Expats in Philippines, Thailand, Mexico, etc., and now the guys in the Philippines are starting to look around. Bad health services, sh*tty infrastructure (brownouts galore) and other 3rd world issues are fueling their concern, IMO. That aside, I cant help thinking if things get real sh*tty here in the States (global financial meltdown), they’ll be worse elsewhere. Hope I’m wrong.
I’ve seen articles that claim Mexico is the #1 destination for US expats. Perhaps #1 as in the most expats, but that is for a few reasons:
1) Proximity to the US. A flight back to the US from Mexico City is as short as two hours.
2) Many Americans are familiar with Mexico, if perhaps only with resort towns.
3) Mexico is liberal with retiree visas. If you can show them that you have retirement income, you can get a visa.
4) Affordable healthcare. Debatable. Good healthcare, while cheaper than in the US, is pricey and your US insurance and Medicare won’t cover it. Sure, you can go to “El Seguro” (National Health) but you get what you pay for.
Beyond that, there are downsides:
1) Crime.
2) Cost of living isn’t that low if you want to live a first world lifestyle.
3) Bureaucracy. If you think US bureaucracy is bad, hold my cerveza.
4) Corruption
5) Getting anything done. Make an appointment with a tradesman or repairman? Don’t be surprised if he shows up a week late.
Paradise, UT Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY As Soaring Housing Inventory Barbecues To Dust In The Hot Desert Sun
‘The Securities and Exchange Commission said on Monday it charged 11 people for their roles in creating and promoting a fraudulent crypto pyramid and Ponzi scheme that raised over $300 million from retail investors worldwide, including in the United States.’
‘Forsage also allegedly used assets from new investors to pay earlier investors in a typical Ponzi structure, the SEC complaint added. “Forsage is a fraudulent pyramid scheme launched on a massive scale and aggressively marketed to investors,” said Carolyn Welshhans, acting chief of the SEC’s Crypto Assets and Cyber unit. “Fraudsters cannot circumvent the federal securities laws by focusing their schemes on smart contracts and blockchains.”
‘Business and property owners in Seattle are installing 1-ton concrete blocks on city streets to prevent RVs and homeless encampments from forming or returning to an area.’
“Individual businesses and residents are putting ecology blocks out as taking matters in their own hands because if they call the city and say there are RVs out in front of their business or out in front of their home, they can’t do anything about it,” business owner JW Harvey told The Seattle Times.’
Since when did mafia blocks become ecology blocks?🙄
Individual businesses and residents are putting ecology blocks out
I had to look this up, as I have never heard of them. I looked it up and this is what I found:
Ecology Blocks are large concrete blocks, which are manufactured from left-over or unused concrete. Concrete that, in years gone by would have been dumped and wasted or hauled to a landfill site, is saved and turned into a useful construction product, hence the term Ecology Block.
It seems they are used in retaining walls.
The blocks are cast into either a half block or a full block and use nearly a half or a full yard of concrete respectively. The dimensions for these blocks are 2’ X 2’ X 3’ for a half block and 2’ X 2’ X 6’ for a full block. Each block is cast with a 3” radius tongue and groove, for interlocking stability, in stacking applications. The full blocks weigh approximately 3850 lbs and the half blocks are 1900 lbs.
So, heavy enough to make them hard to move without equipment.
DailyMail: Seattle business owners are installing 1-ton concrete blocks on city streets to prevent some of the 13,300 homeless people in the Dem-led city from camping out on the sidewalks
From the comments: “How does the city council keep getting reelected?”
Another replies: “Because they have a (D) if front of their name and Democrats will vote for anyone with a (D) no matter what. Just look at who is in the white house.”
From the first 3 minute video:
WESTLAKE VILLAGE
Housing Market Update | Westlake Village | Thousand Oaks | Simi Valley | Moorpark This is the BEST video to find out what is going on in the WESTLAKE VILLAGE, THOUSAND OAKS, SIMI VALLEY, and MOORPARK housing markets.
The second nine minute video:
My plan backfired. The real estate market has turned.
Jul 29, 2022
Today we walk through one of my most recent real estate investment projects. I initially bought this property to flip for a quick profit, but as the real estate market began to turn, I found myself in a position where I need to pivot into a full remodel. After the remodel, I still hope to sell this home for a profit but if the market continues to soften, I may need to convert it into a rental and hold onto the deal long term.
The second video is hilarious. This realtor stupidly bought a 1959 starter dump for $525K during the frenzy and expected to flip it. (6719 E. Wilshire in Scottsdale.) He then wanted to spend $250K on a massive addition and then sell for $1.2 million. Now he’s looking at a light remodel for $40K and renting it out. Actually that’s probably a better idea.
What’s even more hilarious is that ANYone in Scottsdale would pay a million bucks for a starter dump in a dumpy nabe, addition or no. Much nicer houses are going for that same million in pricey Bethesda MD and McLean, VA, areas have the actual jobs to support the prices.
Example: 1964 4/2 split level for a million (after a 25% price drop). Not a mansion, but rather well-appointed:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5709-Cheshire-Dr-Bethesda-MD-20814/37189218_zpid/
actual jobs
Government jobs?
Not just FedGov, but all the defense contractors and other contractors and cybersecurity and lawyers and lobbyists that go with gov, plus some corporate HQ (unlike LIC, Arlington didn’t chase Amazon out) and lots of health care — and all the high-end bankers and financial advisors that follow money.
These cities are most at risk of housing downturn if recession hits
Here’s how the top 10 cities ranked
Riverside, California — risk score of 84.
Boise, Idaho — 76.9.
Cape Coral, Florida — 76.7.
North Port, Florida — 75.
Las Vegas — 74.2.
Sacramento, California — 73.1.
Bakersfield, California — 72.2
Phoenix — 72
Tampa, Florida — 70.7
Tucson, Arizona — 70.1
To determine which areas made the list, Redfin analyzed 98 major housing markets in the U.S. The ranking combines 10 indicators to come up with an overall risk score, with the highest possible score being 100 and the lowest 0.
The indicators Redfin considered are: home price volatility, average debt-to-income ratio, average home-loan-to-value ratio, labor market shock, percent of homes flipped, how much the housing market is “cooling” compared with other metros, year-over-year change in domestic migration, share of homes in the metro that are second homes, year-over-year price growth and elasticity of supply.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/these-cities-are-most-at-risk-of-housing-downturn-if-recession-hits/ar-AA10c98q
Americans have tacked on a more than $1.7 trillion in household debt since the pandemic began. Dig into that eye-popping number, and an increasingly unequal America emerges.
‘The numbers may be bewilderingly large, but what stands out as unusual to Fed economist Andy Haughwout is that Americans kept piling on household debt even as the country went into a recession in the spring of 2020.’
“That is in stark contrast to the Great Financial Crisis, where we saw households shedding debt, paying off debt either by defaulting on obligations [and facing foreclosure], but also just paying them down,” Haughwout said. “In this case, we see debt continuing to grow.”
“[Despite] all the data that looks like maybe we’re doing okay at this moment,” Smith-Ramani said, “when I talk to credit counselors, they’re sort of panicked about third quarter of this year.”
https://www.keranews.org/business-economy/2022-08-01/debt-ballooned-during-the-pandemic-helping-the-wealthy-build-wealth-as-others-tread-water
“…Americans kept piling on household debt…”
Lacking consequences why not?
‘Black Knight Inc. said Monday that year-over-year home price growth in June dropped by nearly two percentage points, which the data analytics company said was the “greatest single-month slowdown on record” since at least the early 1970s. Black Knight said the slowdown to 17.3% annual home price growth in June from 19.3% was broad based was a record by far, “and it wasn’t even close,” said Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske; in comparison, the strongest single-month slowing during the 2006 housing downturn was 1.19 percentage points. The slowdown comes along with a 22% increase in the number of homes listed for sale the past two months, which was the biggest inventory gain in 12 years. The company said the “clear driver” of the inventory gains is a decline in sales activity, resulting from the lowest levels of home affordability in nearly 40 years due to rising interest rates.’
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/black-knight-sees-record-slowdown-in-home-price-growth-in-june-and-biggest-jump-in-inventory-in-12-years/ar-AA10bxfp
‘The Commerce Department said on Monday that construction spending dropped 1.1% in June after gaining 0.1% in May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast construction spending would rise 0.1%.’
‘Investment in residential construction dropped 1.6%, with spending on single-family projects plunging 3.1%.’
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/us-construction-spending-dives-in-june-on-single-family-housing-weakness/ar-AA10btNR
and the following is the reason for our current documentary –
(from twitter)
‘cleve lamison
@lamison
americans are fleeing the country, moving to europe and mexico.
6:59 PM · Aug 1, 2022·Twitter Web App
270
Retweets
76
Quote Tweets
2,199
Likes
11h
Replying to
@lamison
bloomberg.com
Americans Who Can’t Afford Homes Are Moving to Europe Instead
Prohibitive housing prices, a strong dollar and political rancor have contributed to a wave of Americans relocating to Europe.
Hands up everybody who knows someone who moved to Europe.
‘Hands up everybody who knows someone who moved to Europe’.-
Log on the ‘InterNations’ the Expat network –
and we just interviewed a Couple from Laguna Beach CA who moved close to St Maxime in the South of France and next will be a family of four moving to the Bodensee as the University of Konstanz will save them nearly 60 000$ each year for the kids to study and the rent for their apartment in Meersburg is about half what they payed in Irvine CA.
“Hands up everybody who knows someone who moved to Europe.”
Nobody. Because nobody wants to live in a third world shithole.
Happy Valley OR Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY As Oregon’s Appraisal Fraud Riddled Housing Market Staggers
https://www.movoto.com/happy-valley-or/market-trends/
‘Nobody. Because nobody wants to live in a third world shithole’.
Well –
the couple form Laguna Beach who sold their house for 4Mill75 and bought a much bigger one above St Maxime for 3Mill225
is very happy with the South of France – not so much with the amount of tourists there and the difficulties to learn French BUT they love their 1800 Olive trees and will come out with their own brand of Olive Oil next year – to be exported to ‘the homeland’.
and about s…holes –
‘Can you see yourself living in the world’s favourite tourist destination? More than 70 million visitors a year come to France on vacation, but for at least 150,000 Americans it’s home. Few regret the decision. Overall, 79% of expats who move to France are happy with their choice, and if you’re moving to the French countryside in particular, a whole new lifestyle beckons’.
(from another expat site)
and how about this:
‘For Jamie Dixon, 37, moving to Portugal from Los Angeles last July with her seven-year-old daughter and husband was made possible by the switch to a remote job and getting a permanent residency visa which required having a lease, a bank account and health insurance in the country.
Initially living in a two-bedroom mobile home in Malibu, California, the director of operations for a tech startup couldn’t afford to fulfill her dream of buying land with her friends to build a communal living area in LA.
A new remote job allowed her to leave the city and move to a 2,000-euro-a-month, three-bedroom, three-bathroom apartment with a private rooftop in Cascais, a coastal city with a large expat population.
Besides the cheap cost of living, Dixon said her family now has access to a broader multilingual international community and less stress related to crime rates or politics.
“Violence has gone up so much in the US,” she said. “I wanted to give my kid a normal childhood.”
Nobody wants to live in a third world shithole.
Happy Valley OR Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY As Oregon’s Appraisal Fraud Riddled Housing Market Staggers
https://www.movoto.com/happy-valley-or/market-trends/
We always enjoyed driving to France on the weekend. Great food, nice people and lovely scenery. We stayed out of the big cities and roamed the smaller cities and towns. We especially loved Reims and the champagne country. It was always great to get out of Germany.
For me, it’s a little scary because I’ve been following Expats in Philippines, Thailand, Mexico, etc., and now the guys in the Philippines are starting to look around. Bad health services, sh*tty infrastructure (brownouts galore) and other 3rd world issues are fueling their concern, IMO. That aside, I cant help thinking if things get real sh*tty here in the States (global financial meltdown), they’ll be worse elsewhere. Hope I’m wrong.
I’ve seen articles that claim Mexico is the #1 destination for US expats. Perhaps #1 as in the most expats, but that is for a few reasons:
1) Proximity to the US. A flight back to the US from Mexico City is as short as two hours.
2) Many Americans are familiar with Mexico, if perhaps only with resort towns.
3) Mexico is liberal with retiree visas. If you can show them that you have retirement income, you can get a visa.
4) Affordable healthcare. Debatable. Good healthcare, while cheaper than in the US, is pricey and your US insurance and Medicare won’t cover it. Sure, you can go to “El Seguro” (National Health) but you get what you pay for.
Beyond that, there are downsides:
1) Crime.
2) Cost of living isn’t that low if you want to live a first world lifestyle.
3) Bureaucracy. If you think US bureaucracy is bad, hold my cerveza.
4) Corruption
5) Getting anything done. Make an appointment with a tradesman or repairman? Don’t be surprised if he shows up a week late.
Paradise, UT Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY As Soaring Housing Inventory Barbecues To Dust In The Hot Desert Sun
https://www.movoto.com/paradise-ut/market-trends/
As one Utah broker explained, “Between the searing oppressive heat and soaring property taxes, nobody wants to live here.”
A 2:28 video:
Phoenix housing market cooling down to ‘normal,’ experts say
https://www.12news.com/video/news/local/arizona/phoenix-housing-market-cooling-down-to-normal-experts-say/75-0c1ac7e6-831c-428c-97e9-f2fca8f99764
Less than they paid?
Sacré bleu!
‘The Securities and Exchange Commission said on Monday it charged 11 people for their roles in creating and promoting a fraudulent crypto pyramid and Ponzi scheme that raised over $300 million from retail investors worldwide, including in the United States.’
‘Forsage also allegedly used assets from new investors to pay earlier investors in a typical Ponzi structure, the SEC complaint added. “Forsage is a fraudulent pyramid scheme launched on a massive scale and aggressively marketed to investors,” said Carolyn Welshhans, acting chief of the SEC’s Crypto Assets and Cyber unit. “Fraudsters cannot circumvent the federal securities laws by focusing their schemes on smart contracts and blockchains.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/sec-charges-11-people-in-24300m-crypto-pyramid-scheme/ar-AA10bEs2
‘Business and property owners in Seattle are installing 1-ton concrete blocks on city streets to prevent RVs and homeless encampments from forming or returning to an area.’
“Individual businesses and residents are putting ecology blocks out as taking matters in their own hands because if they call the city and say there are RVs out in front of their business or out in front of their home, they can’t do anything about it,” business owner JW Harvey told The Seattle Times.’
https://www.foxnews.com/us/seattle-businesses-take-law-hands-combat-homelessness-angering-activists
Since when did mafia blocks become ecology blocks?🙄
Individual businesses and residents are putting ecology blocks out
I had to look this up, as I have never heard of them. I looked it up and this is what I found:
It seems they are used in retaining walls.
So, heavy enough to make them hard to move without equipment.
🙄
https://www.google.com/search?q=mafia+blocks
Hilarious!
Same story, better exposure:
DailyMail: Seattle business owners are installing 1-ton concrete blocks on city streets to prevent some of the 13,300 homeless people in the Dem-led city from camping out on the sidewalks
From the comments: “How does the city council keep getting reelected?”
Another replies: “Because they have a (D) if front of their name and Democrats will vote for anyone with a (D) no matter what. Just look at who is in the white house.”