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We’re Coming Out Of A No Rules Era

A report from Miami Community News in Florida. “It is as if the collective consciousness of anyone thinking of selling said, ‘Oh, I have missed the top and I better get on market right now so I don’t lose more money.’ This is one of the biggest reasons for our current perfect storm. Just a few months ago we had lines waiting outside open houses and multiple offers on the first day, sometimes sight unseen. A number of Mortgage Loan Officers report that lenders are starving for someone to talk to, let alone lend to. Underwriters are calling their MLOs asking if they can do anything for them today. Some lenders are closing down all together, while most are cutting staff. The mortgage gold rush is over.”

The Washington Post. “Penn Johnson, 62, says he sold his house in affluent Fairfield County, Conn., last year and started renting. He owned a home there for 32 years before downsizing. For sellers, it marks the end of the ‘name your price’ era. Johnson, who works in residential lending, said more sellers are accepting offers below their asking price. ‘[Sellers] felt like they had a lot of market power, and I think that market power went away as the market became more balanced,’ he said.”

The American Statesman in Texas. “Real estate agents have been saying the Central Texas market has been showing signs of slowing from its previously scorching level, and the latest home-sales figures from the Austin Board of Realtors for June supported that. The survey says the median list price of homes on the market in Austin is $620,000, and the percentage of listings with price reductions is 32.4%. ‘Homebuyers looking to make a move in once-unaffordable cities, like Austin, may finally have the upper hand,’ Realtor.com said.”

From 12 News in Arizona. “The Phoenix housing market is cooling down. There are 16,000 new homes listed per day as opposed to only 4,000 at the height of the real estate boom. ‘This is not a market crash,’ Arizona Association of Realtor’s treasurer Sindy Ready said. ‘Prices are staying about the same; they’re adjusting a little bit…mostly on listings that were overpriced.'”

“iBuyers, companies like Opendoor and Offerpad, who buy homes and resell them, are also slowing their buying spree, Tina Tamboer with The Cromford Report said. ‘A lot of these corporate iBuyers were flipping their homes to institutions based out of Wall Street,’ Tamboer said. ‘So when Wall Street started to pull out, they scaled back quite a bit.'”

From Bloomberg. “Opendoor Technologies Inc. agreed to pay $62 million to the Federal Trade Commission to settle allegations that it misled potential home sellers in its marketing campaigns. The commission alleged that Opendoor tricked customers by promising they could make more money by selling to the company than they would on the open market, according to a statement. ‘Opendoor promised to revolutionize the real estate market but built its business using old-fashioned deception about how much consumers could earn from selling their homes on the platform,’ Samuel Levine, director of the FTC’s bureau of consumer protection, said in the statement.”

The Silicon Valley Business Journal. “Housing prices in San Jose fell by an average of $75,300 from April to June, the biggest drop in prices over that time period among the top 50 U.S. markets, according to a new report. The price of the average house in the Capital of Silicon Valley fell from $1.56 million in April to $1.49 million two months later, market analysis firm Black Knight said. That was a 5.1% decline. Over that two-month period, eleven other top 50 markets also saw drops in home prices, with seven seeing prices fall by at least 1%. Four of those were in California — in San Francisco, average home prices dropped by 2.8%; in San Diego by 2%, Los Angeles by 1.3% and Sacramento by 1.1%.”

“San Jose’s housing price growth is down by 11.4 percentage points from its high point from the past year, Riverside’s by 10.5 percentage points, San Diego’s, 9.8 percentage points, and San Francisco’s 9.6 percentage points. But the market that had seen its housing appreciation decline the most in June from its peak from the past year was Austin, Texas. The annualized price increase there was down 22 percentage points that month from its high point.”

The New York Post. “Debra Winger has put the uptown home she shares with her husband back on the market following a price drop and a broker swap.Her two-bedroom, two-bath co-op is in a grand Beaux-Arts building at 300 W. 109th St.It’s now asking $1.49 million — down from its $1.77 million ask last November, further down from its $1.95 million ask in 2019. The couple bought it for $1.85 million in 2015.”

The Nevada Current. “‘I have one seller who is not lowering their price because I think they haven’t come to terms with where the market is heading right now,’ says Dawn Houlf, a longtime Las Vegas real estate agent. Another would-be seller waited on the sidelines, attempting to time the peak of the market. ‘They took six weeks to get the house ready to sell and missed the boat.'”

“Supply is up 134% from a year ago, according to Las Vegas Reators. ‘We saw a lot of sellers motivated by greed, for lack of a better word,’ says Diane Varney, a Las Vegas realtor. ‘If I get my price, I’ll sell. Otherwise, I’ll stay put,’ That’s not a life event. People usually move for life events.’ Varney says a quarter of listings in Southern Nevada have reduced prices. ‘A seller has to be motivated by something other than price. Inventory in Las Vegas is almost four times what it was in March,’ she says. ‘I show them the statistics and explain the laws of supply and demand.'”

“‘If you’re getting showings and no offers, you’re roughly 5% overpriced. If you’re getting no showings and no offers, then you’re roughly 10% overpriced,’ Varney says of the rules for a normal market. ‘We’re coming out of a ‘no rules’ era where we saw 25% to 35% property value increases within the last 24 months.'”

“In Reno, where the median price of a home was $677,500 in June, 32.6% of listings had price reductions that month, according to Realtor.com, which deemed Reno first in the nation for slashing home prices. ‘Pricing your home correctly from the get go is key. I’m seeing price reductions upwards of 20% right now,’ says Sarah Scattini, president of the Reno Sparks Association of Realtors. ‘Sellers are offering incentives to buyers – credits for closing costs, credits to buy down their interest rate. Motivated sellers are likely to be more realistic.'”

“Scattini agrees Reno’s ranking as the top market for slashing prices indicates it was among the most inflated markets in the U..S.  ‘Prices are getting hit hardest in the markets that have been on the hot streak during the pandemic,’ she says.”

“As interest rates rise, so-called creative financing, popular before the housing bubble burst in 2007, is making a comeback. ‘There is what we call a bank statement loan, where all they have to do is provide their bank statements and have a 650 or 680 FICO score,’ says Houlf. ‘But that’s at a higher interest rate. You’re looking at seven, seven and a half percent rather than paying five and a half or six.’ Adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) were popular during the predatory lending practices that preceded the Great Recession and have fallen out of favor. Now, they’re back.”

The Real Deal. “The nation’s most overvalued housing market is coming down from a pandemic peak as mortgage rates rise, sending some newcomers back from where they came.Idaho’s capital region, one of the fastest-accelerating markets in the past two years, is reversing course,the Wall Street Journal reported. After single-family home prices in the Boise area jumped 79 percent in two years, they’re set to drop by as much as 10 percent.”

“Some people who moved to Boise are returning to their pre-pandemic home bases to go back to the office or be closer to family, the publication reported. Stagnant or falling prices might be welcome news for longtime residents priced out of a market that was within their grasp not long ago. ‘It did go way too far,’ Corey Barton, president of CBH Homes, the area’s biggest home builder, told the outlet. ‘It’s slowly going back to the old Boise.'”

The Georgia Straight in Canada. “Preliminary statistics show a deep slide in home sales in Greater Vancouver. Numbers compiled by real-estate site Zealty.ca show that a total of 1,901 properties sold in July 2022. The figure represents a 43 percent plunge compared to the same month in 2021. Compared to sales in June 2022, transactions in July decreased 22.7 percent. Of the 1,901 properties sold in July 2022, less than a third or 29.1 percent were purchased either at full price or over the listed price.”

“Zealty.ca numbers also show that there are more houses available for sale in the market. In July 2022, the months of inventory stood at 5.3 months, a 76.7 percent increase on an annual basis. Vancouver Eastside saw 198 sales in July 2022, marking a 44.8 percent decline. Meanwhile, Vancouver Westside recorded 371 sales last month, representing a 35 percent decrease compared to July 2021.”

From Business Update. “The real estate platform is traded as the next unicorn. McMakler is now laying off more than a hundred employees. Two weeks ago, the world seemed fine at the Berlin real estate platform McMakler. Employees cheerfully published group photos with colleagues on Linkedin under the hashtag #OneTeam, the occasion was a summer party in Berlin’s trendy Spindler & Klatt club. But apparently things are not going quite as harmoniously as portrayed at the start-up. A few days after the company party, there was a mass layoff at McMakler, according to information from the founding scene.”

“A spokeswoman did not go into details. Just this much: ‘McMakler is a growth company, but we also pay attention to cost control. We are currently experiencing a changing situation in the overall economic environment, which we must take into account at an early stage.'”

Stuff New Zealand. “Realestate.co.nz reports that the number of homes available for sale has increased steadily since mid last year. In July last year, there were 12,684 on the market. At the end of July this year, that had lifted to 26,358. Eleven regions had at least twice the housing stock this year compared to last, including Hawkes Bay, Nelson and Bays, Wellington, Bay of Plenty, Waikato, Central North Island, Manawatu/Whanganui, Wairarapa and Northland. ‘The market has started to shift. We’ve seen a record number of consents from councils to build new homes and buyer FOMO (fear of missing out) decreasing. The scales have tipped; buyers now have the edge,’ said spokesperson Vanessa Williams.”

ABC Business. “While some Australians may rejoice at the idea of a drop in house prices, interest rate rises mean home owners face the prospect of their asset dropping in value at the same time their mortgage repayments steadily increase. And those who bought recently, at the peak of the market, are more likely to have the most left to pay off on their loans, meaning interest rate rises will cause them the most pain.”

“Bobby Graham bought a house in January in Hobart’s outer suburbs for slightly more than he had hoped to pay, after saving for the past five years. Just months before his purchase completed, as late as October, the Reserve Bank of Australia was still saying it expected interest rates would not rise until 2024. There have now been three months of straight rate rises, and another due today.”

“While he is not struggling to meet payments, Mr Graham says the changing circumstances have meant he needed to adjust something else — his expectations. ‘It’s the perfect storm — you pay the higher price because you bought at the peak of the market then there is an increase in interest rates,’ he said. ‘And it becomes obvious that everything else is becoming more expensive due to inflation.’ He described the increases in his mortgage repayments as ‘a bit of a kick.'”

“As part of his changes he has had to cancel several interstate trips planned for this year in a bid to save money and meet home and mortgage commitments. ‘You pay so much of your income, just to maintain your house,’ he said.”

The New York Times. “Last month, Chinese officials announced that the economy grew at its slowest pace since the early days of the pandemic. Unemployment is high, the housing market is in crisis and nervous consumers — living under the constant threat of lockdowns and mass testing — are not spending. Fang Wei, 34, said she has scaled back her spending since she left a job in 2020. In the past, she spent most of her salary on brands like Michael Kors, Coach and Valentino during frequent shopping trips.”

“Even though she is employed again, working in advertising in Beijing, she now allocates a quarter of her salary on food, transportation and other living costs. She hands the rest to her mother, who puts the money in the bank. ‘Because I’m worried about being laid off, I transfer everything to my mother every month,’ Fang said. ‘It’s very depressing to go from enjoying life to subsistence.'”

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This Post Has 142 Comments

  1. From the last link:

    ‘A.H. Beard opened its flagship store with a local partner in Shanghai almost 10 years ago. And like any high-end brand, it rolled out products with prices that defy belief. China became the best-selling market for its top-of-the-line $75,000 mattress.’

    ‘Since then, the cost of shipping a container has jumped sixfold. The cost of mattress materials and components, such as latex and natural fibers, have increased significantly. Other worrying signs have emerged, including a housing slump. (New homes often mean new mattresses.)’

    They saw you suckers coming a mile off.

  2. ‘The price of the average house in the Capital of Silicon Valley fell from $1.56 million in April to $1.49 million two months later, market analysis firm Black Knight said. That was a 5.1% decline. Over that two-month period, eleven other top 50 markets also saw drops in home prices, with seven seeing prices fall by at least 1%. Four of those were in California ‘

    How the mighty have fallen.

  3. ‘‘There is what we call a bank statement loan, where all they have to do is provide their bank statements and have a 650 or 680 FICO score’

    I’m thinking oxide has some crowz to eat too.

  4. ‘iBuyers, companies like Opendoor and Offerpad, who buy homes and resell them, are also slowing their buying spree, Tina Tamboer with The Cromford Report said. ‘A lot of these corporate iBuyers were flipping their homes to institutions based out of Wall Street,’ Tamboer said. ‘So when Wall Street started to pull out, they scaled back quite a bit.’

    In the video version I posted in the earlier thread Tina says they’re getting schlonged. It’s worser than that Tina, these idiots have thousands of Phoenix area shacks they are trying to unload at a loss.

    1. A lot of these corporate iBuyers were flipping their homes to institutions based out of Wall Street

      Helluva business model there. Where’s the technologies part? Oh that’s right. Slap on “tech” or “AI” and BINGO IPO riches!

  5. ‘It’s the perfect storm — you pay the higher price because you bought at the peak of the market then there is an increase in interest rates,’ he said. ‘And it becomes obvious that everything else is becoming more expensive due to inflation.’ He described the increases in his mortgage repayments as ‘a bit of a kick’

    ‘As part of his changes he has had to cancel several interstate trips planned for this year in a bid to save money and meet home and mortgage commitments. ‘You pay so much of your income, just to maintain your house’

    No avocado sammies fer you Bobby.

    1. “…You pay so much of your income, just to maintain your house…”

      They are called holding costs, Bobby.

      Imagine that you have walked into the LaBrea Tar pits, notice that you can’t move and are sinking slowly. You’ll get the idea.

    2. avocado sammies

      We went out to breakfast on Sunday. After finding out the Mimi’s Cafe in Mira Mesa had closed, we went to Broken Yolk Cafe. Holy cow, sticker shock! $4.45 for a small mason jar of lemonade that we ask to be diluted with half water. The manager removed the second serving after I complained.

      1. After finding out the Mimi’s Cafe in Mira Mesa had closed

        The one in my little burg closed a couple of years ago. I remember when it opened, it had a line out the door. The novelty is gone.

    3. He described the increases in his mortgage repayments as ‘a bit of a kick’

      So ‘ya got a hybrid mortgage, huh?

      ‘You pay so much of your income, just to maintain your house’

      But it was cheaper than renting!

  6. ‘It is as if the collective consciousness of anyone thinking of selling said, ‘Oh, I have missed the top and I better get on market right now so I don’t lose more money’

    Hey, collective consciousness, look this way.

    Click!

    1. Nothing but a picture on the wall of Klaus Schwab’s lifeless body being dragged around town by angry serfs.

  9. This is the Brandon regime’s idea of a “booming economic recovery.”

    Nearly Half of All Restaurants & Car Services Couldn’t Pay July Rent

    https://www.alignable.com/forum/45-of-restaurants-couldnt-pay-july-rent

    TREND TRACKER | DATA INSIGHTS | JULY RENT POLL: Boston, MA, July 29, 2022: Nearly half of the small business owners in the transportation and restaurant sectors say that they were unable to pay their July rent in full and on time. That’s according to Alignable’s July Rent Report, based on responses from 3,553 randomly selected small business owners surveyed from 6/25/22 to 7/29/22.

    Specifically, 48% of trucking companies, taxi & limo services, and independent Uber & Lyft drivers couldn’t cover July rent, in addition to 45% of restaurant owners, 44% of nonprofits, and 44% of retailers.

      1. Ok, I’m sure they will fail to tell people that the monkey pox ( small pox) vaccine has always had extreme side effects, and it sheds to people around the jabbed , who can get very sick, without getting the jab.

        Also the new so called reformulated so called booster to come out in Sept , that is suppose to address variants of Covid, had no requirements to have trials.
        So, not only does Big Pharmacy have immunity for damage caused by vaccines, no trials are now required by the captured and corrupt FDA. Consider yourself A lab rat. The original trials had hideous side effects and death as it was , but it got approved anyway by this FDA.
        And so many whistle blower nurses are saying that they are instructed to hide the damage from jabs, and not report to Vares.
        And Doctors are saying they know jabs are responsible but they don’t want to lose their jobs if they don’t comply with the narrative. They also know that the protocols mandated in hospitals to treat Covid are killing a high percentage of the cases.
        They are gaslighting victims of the jab.
        So, how do you stop a medical system and regulatory Gov agency like the FDA that is committing epic mal practice and murder, with hospital personnel killing people , rather than risk losing their job?
        And Dr Fauci was complaining yesterday on TV that people aren’t adhering to Authority.
        And the conspiring fake news continues to defraud the public on what they call disinformation regarding the vaccines, that aren’t vaccines.
        And now Congress is suppose to be conducting hearings on gain of function finally. But , to what ends when people are being killed and injured by Big Pharmacy , as they go into round 2 of this medical fraud and tyranny.
        Government agencies have become the enemy of the people and refusing to comply with this fraud is necessary.
        Seriously, this warp speed vaccine , isn’t A vaccine . All the evidence shows that the vaccinated are getting Covid and dying in hospitals. Add to this death and injury from the jab they are hiding and its a bloody disaster that they refuse to stop.

        1. and it sheds to people around the jabbed , who can get very sick, without getting the jab

          Stay away from the bath houses and you’ll be fine. It seems the SchlongCovid jab is hard to make and there will only be 5 million doses available through next year.

          There has been ONE case in my county, no doubt some rear ender. That’s supposed to be an emergency?

  11. It seems like the pace of the unraveling is accelerating fastest in the WEF colonies of Australia, New Zealand, and Canada.

    Australian tech company Metigy collapses suddenly leaving staff ‘shell-shocked’

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/technology/australian-tech-company-metigy-collapses-suddenly-leaving-staff-shellshocked/news-story/b8b0be42862c7139dcb9297260ddc2f0

    Staff at the company were left stunned by the news after the company planned to raise money recently based on a $1 billion valuation.

    1. The company called Metigy was founded in 2015 and offered an artificial intelligence platform that provided insights into customers for small business marketing.

      Another vaporware firm bites the dust.

    2. In Colorado,
      They have a podcast called ” BEHIND THE
      DEEP STATE.” Well done short and numerous podcasts that outline everything happening. Very well done.
      For instance I’m sure people don’t know that a bill has been introduced in Congress by some good Republicans , for the US to withdraw from the UN , the WHO, and all their corrupt entities working with the WEF on taking over the World , and usurping Sovereign States .
      The UN and all agencies is behind the 2030 sustainable earth agenda, that nobody voted for. Corrupted agency with a Communist China and other Communist infiltration , WEF and Bill Gates inflitration, Rockefeller foundation , the usual suspects.
      Biden, the traitor and puppet for WEF , China , etc. Is attempting to turn over by amendment and threaty power of WHO over the US.
      This government was not created to have our powers turned over to a Origination thats riddled with our enemies , with agendas of a One World Order takeover, based on false premises. This is how they plan to take over.
      Anyway, that podcast is good.

  12. Globalist oligarchs who funnel huge sums to BLM to fund Communist insurrection must be fuming at how these Comrades of Proven Worth (D) divert funds for frivolous expenditures unrelated to their assigned tasks of destroying America from within.

    Controversial BLM activist Shaun King ‘used $40,000 in donor funds to buy AKC award-winning mastiff to serve as his guard dog’… only to RETURN it several months later because it had ‘too much energy’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11071543/Controversial-BLM-activist-Shaun-Kings-PAC-paid-40K-AKC-award-winning-guard-dog.html

    1. Wish I could shove that video in the face of the nurse last year who told me I chose wrong.

    2. I wonder how many of the jabbed will be gone by 2030? I suspect the number won’t be trivial. And of course, this very usually high number of deaths will be attributed to inanities like cold showers, global warming, food allergies, etc.

      1. The only surprising thing about what is obviously a depopulation scheme is that they didn’t realize that the most common “refusers” are the Deplorables who are onto their tricks.

        I guess they thought that we would take it because Trump boasted about it. They didn’t realize that we aren’t brain-numbed robots, just people who are sick and tired of being lied to constantly by every politician.

    3. COVID vaccines are deadly poison.

      And the more you take, the sooner you “boost” yourself into an early grave ☠️

      “This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush

      1. And the biggest scientist authority on Monkey pox, also died in 2017 of a bizarre bicycle accident. He, (forget the name) said that the monkey pox vaccine should not be given as a mass vaccine program. Just like the Dr who invented the PCR , who died around the same time, who said his PCR invention was not to be used to diagnose disease.
        So, they again are using the PCR to diagnose Monkey Pox
        So, many whistle blowers have come forth stating that they were ramping up those PCR cycles to 45 in laps during the high testing phase of Covid, which produces inaccurate results.
        Also, I heard in a report that 45 % of gays getting monkey pox also have HIV. Who knows what these people are getting .
        The basis of the Panademic fraud is the false testing, where all the other fraud follows.
        You get Covid if you get the jabs , like Biden and Dr Fauci, but you would of died of Covid absent the jab. Cover story for vaccines that don’t work. Lockdowns and masks don’t work but they are gearing up for round two.

          1. I would wear my mask to get in grocery stores in Ca. , but I kept my entire nose out . Only 4 times did some enforcers mention that my mask wasn’t covering my nose.
            In spite of being older I never got Covid, unless you count a couple of days I had a runny nose.
            This time if they mandate masks, I really don’t want to comply at all because I’m sick of this medical fraud. I hope people rebel this time.

  15. August 1, 2022:
    The monthly supply of new houses in the United States (MSACSR) is a statistic published by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. It is a fairly reliable leading indicator of recessions; note the shaded areas for the recessions of 1975, 1980, and 2008. A value of 6 is considered by some to be a “balanced” condition. The curve shows a rapid increase in available homes since December, 2021, a likely indicator that the U.S. economy is heading into, or is already in, a recession.
    The data is updated monthly, but lags by one month; the value for May, 2022 was 8.4. As of July 26, 2022, the curve showed data through June, 2022, when the value was 9.3.
    Since 1963, any time the MSACSR number reached 9.5 or greater, there was an associated recession.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR

  16. Poetic justice that shack prices are tumbling fastest in the WEF Quisling regimes of New Zealand, Australia, and Canada.

    The number of homes for sale [in NZ] has more than doubled year-on-year, with the national average asking price declining by $87k from its peak

    https://www.interest.co.nz/property/116973/number-homes-sale-has-more-doubled-year-year-national-average-asking-price

    Buyers are now fully in control of the housing market as the number of homes available for sale doubles compared to a year ago, asking prices continue to tumble and the number of new listings remains above pre-pandemic levels, according to property website realestate.co.nz.

    “The market has started to shift,” realestate.co.nz spokesperson Vanessa Williams said.

    1. “The market has started to shift,”

      They are claiming that it’s no longer “red hot” and returning to “normal”. But as interest rates continue to rise it will become harder and harder to unload a shack.

    2. “The market has started to shift,”

      It seems most global markets are taking a shift at the exact same time.

    1. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. Memo to store owner: next time a Youth for Biden comes into your establishment with a gun, aim for center mass.

      1. did that vibrant go to an ER?
        Yes he went to the hospital where he and his 2 friends were arrested. the Shooting victim will be “arrested” when released from the hospital. The 80 year old went to the hospital for a heart related issue. Last I read.

    3. “He Shot My Arm Off” the Thug Cries…

      In the military they’d say, “He won’t be jack’n off with that arm!”

  18. A reader sent these in:

    Ron Butler

    There Is Blame To Assign To This Real Estate Disaster

    Some things are no ones fault, some bad decisions made at the start of a crisis like Covid shouldn’t be attacked it was battlefield surgery, act and hope for the best. But by the Summer of 2021 everyone in Canada saw it. If you’re the Department of Finance and the BoC you had a choice: Act or Ignore. We all know what happened.

    Now that we watch financial disaster unfold for recent home buyers, hellacious mortgage payment increases and rentals rates going through the roof let’s not forget.

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1553021944936685570

    7.5% of US homes for sale have cut their asking price over the last 4 weeks, the highest level we’ve seen since Redfin started tracking the data in 2015.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1554087956398342151

    The Kobeissi Letter

    Housing Market Update:

    1. Avg home price down 12% in 2 months, biggest in history

    2. Mortgage demand at lowest since 2000

    3. Housing supply up for first time since 2019

    4. Home sales down 16% in June

    5. 15% of all sales fell through in June

    The housing market party is over.

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1554237281699074048

    Hey @Airbnb
    . Thanks for the last minute cancellation of my $7500 rental. Flights are booked, cars are rented, 9 guests en route. Your customer service has been awful and unwilling to help. Left in the dust. This is absolute garbage.

    https://twitter.com/ChazRisso/status/1554146812147036160

    I working directly in the building sector of what was a very hot market in Salt Lake city..
    I don’t think ppl quite understand the amount of whiplash that has been created in the economy w the rate volatility
    Even if Housing was flat for 5 years it will be extremely painful

    https://twitter.com/BlowMe694200/status/1554247256554868736

    It had to be done 🤣

    https://twitter.com/MarketManiaCa/status/1554245309198266369

    Spot the QT

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1554288073478877184

    “A tidal wave of evictions could be nearing, with 8.4 million Americans, or about 15% of all renters, behind rent payments in June.”

    https://twitter.com/GlobalProTrader/status/1553842464926191618

    Every single piece of research on low rates: it drives inequality.

    Author: Not giving poor people more debt ruins the economy!

    I don’t know if you noticed, but the same economist who couldn’t read a balance sheet is the source in all of these.

    https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1554307742021685248

      1. Spot the QT

        They are phasing it (QT) in slowly, but it’s happening. What people fail to realize is that the MBS the FED agreed to buy in the past were already in the pipeline and are still being added the balance sheet. Those should be done by the end of this month. You’re going to start to see that balance sheet decrease in earnest by the end of the year. You can already see a top formed.

      2. Total assets April 13, 2022- $8,965,487,000,000
        Total assets July 27, 2022- $8,890,004,000,000

        Difference = $75,483,000,000

        I hate the FED, but I like the truth. They just started QT and drained over 75 billion.

    3. Hey @Airbnb
      . Thanks for the last minute cancellation of my $7500 rental.

      Dance with the devil, suffer the consequences. No sympathy. The company is illegal, and filthy.

  19. Maybe off-shoring our manufacturing base to China wasn’t such a hot idea after all.

    Chinese TANKS flood beaches opposite Taiwan as Beijing warns America will ‘pay the price’ for Pelosi’s Taipei visit: Four US warships lie off island’s east coast and flight tracking website goes DOWN as 300,000 people chart Nancy’s journey

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11071621/Chinese-warplanes-buzz-line-dividing-Taiwan-Strait-expected-Pelosi-visit-source.html

  20. “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.” – Ludwig von Mises

    1. This is a great quote, and one that all the reckless gamblers counting on a “FED pivot” should read over, and over, and over again. Because the FED has just “voluntarily abandoned further credit expansion.” It’s over, suckas, now reap.

  21. Cryptologists have confirmed that a mysterious metal orb that fell on Mexico contained a coded message: Realtors are liars.

    Mysterious Metallic Orb Falls on Mexico, May Contain ‘Valuable Information,’ Meteorologist Says</strong?

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmm7a/mysterious-metallic-orb-falls-on-mexico-may-contain-valuable-information-meteorologist-says

    A prominent meteorologist says that a bizarre metal “orb” emblazoned with a secret code and perhaps containing “valuable information inside” fell from the sky onto a tree in Veracruz, Mexico just before midnight Sunday night, creating a firestorm of intrigue on social media and in local media. The meteorologist, Isidro Cano Luna, called on the Mexican Navy to study the orb.

    Luna, a television meteorologist whose catchphrase is “weather is also news” and always types in capital letters, wrote that the “metallic sphere” fell on top of a tree at 10 p.m. in Lomas del Río Medio neighborhood in Veracruz, a city of 600,000 people on the Gulf of Mexico in the southeast corner of the country. In a series of three Facebook posts, Luna speculated that it “APPEARS TO BE MADE OF A VERY HARD PLASTIC OR AN ALLOY OF VARIOUS METALS” and “APPARENTLY IT HAS AN ANTENNA.”

  22. The Economist
    Finance & economics | Back to earth
    The global housing boom is running out of steam
    Where are prices going to fall most sharply?
    Aug 1st 2022

    Diana mousaly spent months searching for a home in Windsor, Canada’s southernmost city. It was the height of covid-19 and prices were rising across the country. Ms Mousaly, a 27-year-old clerk at the local police service, viewed nearly 100 homes and made 60 or so offers—often at hundreds of thousands of Canadian dollars above the asking price—before finally closing on a property last September. A decade ago, her parents purchased a home for half the amount. “It’s four times bigger than mine,” she sighs.

    Ms Mousaly may have bought at the wrong time. For the past two decades, Canada’s white-hot property market has burned ever brighter. Now things are cooling down: prices have fallen for three consecutive months. The same is true in other frothy markets. In New Zealand, where valuations at the end of 2021 were up by 45% since the start of the pandemic, the price of a home has also fallen for three straight months. In Sweden, prices fell by nearly 4% in June, the steepest monthly decline since the global financial crisis in 2007-09. Two in five homes in Australia are worth less than they were three months ago.
    …

    1. Not sure how I became the Professor’s Bear temporarily! Automated cell phone text editing is an interesting phenomenon.

      1. Samsung’s “voice to text” still needs lots of work, but Google’s dictation module is incredible, IMHO.

    2. Where are prices going to fall most sharply?

      Bend, OR
      Boise, ID
      Reno, NV
      Salt Lake City, UT
      Spokane, WA
      Las Vegas, NV
      Inland Empire, CA
      The entire San Joaquin Valley, CA
      and so forth…

  25. Activist: Danbury mom killing kids, self shows mental health services ‘crisis’ in immigrant community

    Sandra Diamond Fox
    August 2, 2022

    Danbury police said Sonia Loja, 36, killed her three children July 27 before killing herself. The Office of the Chief Medical Examiner confirmed the children — Junior Panjon, 12, Joselyn Panjon, 10, and Jonael Panjon, 5 — died by strangulation and Loja died by hanging.

    At a vigil at his home Saturday, Pedro Panjon said his wife was distraught over the loss of income after she was ordered in June to close her unlicensed day care business. Panjon said his wife was unable to get a day care license because the family is undocumented.

    Danbury resident Emanuela Palmares, an activist in the immigrant community and vice president of the nonprofit New American Dream Foundation, said the tragedy underscores the need to raise awareness to the mental health treatment resources available in the community.

    https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/news/article/Activist-Danbury-mom-killing-kids-self-shows-17345029.php

      1. “Stories like this need to be shown to those who join caravans.”

        +1

        ‘They left her hanging’: details emerge of woman’s death at US-Mexico border

        Griselda Verduzco Armenta was trying to get over the barrier with the help of coyotes to find a more secure future for her daughters

        Ramon Antonio Vargas in New York
        Sat 16 Apr 2022 18.14 EDT

        https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/16/woman-us-mexico-border-death-update

        Stories like this and the 51 migrants from Mexico, Guatemala and Honduras found dead in the back of a tractor-trailer in San Antonio last June matter not to AOC, George Soros and the Woke sheep who cheerlead their open border policies.

    1. Credit card balances surged $46 billion in the three-month period

      People are charging the gas and groceries as it is impossible for many to make ends meet. What will happen when their cards max out?

      And to think that just two years ago there was little inflation and real wages were rising.

      #FJB

  27. They are a hold. by the excitement to become homeowners. Nothing else matters, once the highly contagious pandemic variant of homeownership fever gains a hold.

      1. Struggling with phone edits!

        They think we’re going to have self-driving cars when they can’t even produce a spell-check worth a sh!t.

        1. No kidding. At least you are not likely to accidentally kill someone due to an autocorrect malfunction.

        2. self-driving cars

          Notice how the chatter around that has all but disappeared and the Narrative has shifted to “you shouldn’t own a car to begin with, because it’s wasteful.”

  28. “Labor Market Cracks As Job Openings Suffer Third Biggest Plunge On Record”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/labor-market-cracks-job-openings-suffer-third-biggest-plunge-record

    (snip)

    “Bottom line: whereas until May, the JOLTS report continued to paint an almost uncomfortably strong picture of the US labor market, in June it finally cracked, with job openings plummeting at the 3rd fastest pace on record (with only the Covid crash months worse) and since the US is now in a technical recession, we expect that July and subsequent months will be far worse. We will get confirmation of this as soon as Friday when the BLS reports the July jobs report where consensus expects a 250K print but where the final outcome will be far worse. The only question then is what happens to wages and how much longer will the wage-price spiral continue now that Biden and Powell have officially pushed the economy into a recession.”

    1. Most of those were fake jobs anyway. Many companies use fake posts that they cant fill (wink wink) to angle for foreign labor. It’s all a scam. When there is a genuine labor shortage, wages magically rise and the jobs get filled.

  29. Aug 1, 2022 Yes, there are some WILD changes in the Las Vegas Home Market. What has been a Sellers Market with Bidding Wars from Multiple Offers and median prices rising has seen some dramatic changes in the last two months. Rising inventory has hit a Balanced Market at nearly a six months supply. Median single family home prices have dropped $15,000 from all time highs in May and June. But it’s not only resale homes that have changed. I’m hearing from so many of my Home Builder contacts. Everything from offers and incentives to standing inventory. This all varies from builder to builder and individual communities, but has been some time since there has been this much available.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_lQENp9HxGk

    4:15.

  30. Phoenix housing market cooling down to ‘normal,’ experts say
    12 News
    Aug 2, 2022 Experts say the Phoenix housing market is cooling thanks to higher interest rates, but it’s more like a correction than a crash.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8IZavkCaDE

    2:28. This is the video stating ibuyers are fooked.

    1. cooling down to ‘normal,’

      I believe this stage is called ‘denial’. Once they move into anger they will be blaming everyone but themselves.

    2. That Realtor in the red dress is a real savant, oh I think it will be like this for six to eight months. The other guy was more straightforward, this is the way it’s supposed to be, house prices are supposed to go down. 🙂

  31. The dilemma the Professor is facing with his nieces got me thinking…

    When was the last time it made sense for the average person to buy a house where you live?

    In my targeted hood of Jupiter/Palm Beach Gardens Fl. it was probably the end of 1999 with a small window in 2011-2012. Even then it was if you could find something decent as they were dribbling out the “robo-signed” foreclosure the PTB had been sitting on for years so they didn’t flood the market and drive house prices down to nothing nationally much like what happened with Detroit’s $100 houses.

    Anyway, essentially it’s been 22 years since you could go out look for and purchase a house at a reasonable unmanipulated price around here so I understand the Professor’s 40 year-old nieces being anxious to have a place to live they can call their own. I only hope the Professor’s advice can see them through holding out a while longer.

    All-Transactions House Price Index for Palm Beach County, FL

    1975-2021

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS12099A

    1. I believe the next chapter in the One Word Order takeover, will be throwing the kitchen sink of emergencies at populations , all at the same time .
      Famine, supply chain disruptions , pandemics, declaring of climate change emergencies, withdraw of fuel, inflation, real estate crashing, you name it.
      Its the monopoly model of elimination of competition, so the monopoly rules.
      Corporate Governance is the end goal, with corrupted Governments carrying out the psycho will of these Monopolies that have been planning this dictorship for a long time.

        1. I think they will fail also, but the damage and carnage they will cause will be epic, before they are stopped.
          If people just rebel against them, instead of against each other, than people are targeting the true culprits . The Dutch farmers know exactly who the enemy is.

  34. $499,777 3 bd 2 ba 1,730 sqft
    Price cut: $58K (8/1)
    2910 S Surrey Loop, Kingman, AZ 86401

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2910-S-Surrey-Loop-Kingman-AZ-86401/67810815_zpid/

    Date Event Price
    8/1/2022 Price change $499,777 (-10.4%) $289/sqft

    7/22/2022 Price change $557,770 (-3.4%) $322/sqft

    6/25/2022 Listed for sale $577,700 $334/sqft

    6/25/2022 Pending sale $577,700 $334/sqft

    6/21/2022 Price change $577,700 (-8.3%) $334/sqft

    5/31/2022 Listed for sale $629,700 (+1302.4%) $364/sqft

    4/21/2004 Sold $44,900 $26/sqft

      1. The war is far from over.

        Indeed. I expect the next 3-5 months to be more tumultuous than the last 2 years. I hope I’m wrong.

        1. Expect Monkeypox “emergencies” to be declared everywhere, even though case counts will be tiny, no one will die, and it will be mostly confined to the rear ended.

  37. Housing wizard, we are finished. When women that have Professor bear as family are so propagandized, what hope is there for the common man? I never would have believed a regular contributor to the housing bubble blog could have direct family that are so naive.

    1. Most people have nutty family members who think WE are the crazy ones. This is one reason why Civil War 2 is unlikely to happen. Most people don’t want to have to kill a parent, sibling, niece etc. I have family members who think Biden is a very honest man and is doing a great job. These are people with advanced degrees who are happy to inform you how intelligent they are. It is troubling. That said, even Professor Bear has been known to inject the kool aid on occasion. The madness of crowds can be very seductive.

      1. I have family members who think Biden is a very honest man and is doing a great job. These are people with advanced degrees who are happy to inform you how intelligent they are.

        In other words, thy have high paying government or corporate jobs, so the current calamity is just an annoyance: “You don’t have the car I want in stock, and I have to wait 2-3 months to get one?”

      2. Most people have nutty family members who think WE are the crazy ones.
        Well said,
        Most people don’t want to have to kill a parent, sibling, niece etc. Maybe, although I think my sister-in-law would gladly kill me.

        2. ‘Well said,
          Most people don’t want to have to kill a parent, sibling, niece etc. Maybe, although I think my sister-in-law would gladly kill me’.

          But –
          then –
          if you ask somebody here – you will be told: ‘We get along’
          and that’s really confusing as if you ask Americans why they are leaving the homeland – one of the major reason is being afraid of some kind of another Civil War?

      3. Every civil war in history has ended up brother on brother, family members against family members. I always used to wonder about that in CW1 (US). I don’t wonder any more.

        1. “If any man come to Me and hate not his father and mother, and wife and children, and brethren and sisters, yea, and his own life also, he cannot be My disciple.”

    2. Some will end up being victims. But eventually a high percentage is not going to go along with this nonsense anymore.
      So far only 2 percent are having their 5 and under jabbed. That’s a good sign that the narratives are breaking down. I feel sorry for the children of that 2%. Maybe some will get blanks for vaccines. Hopefully a lot of blank vaccines were administered, and people won’t push their luck by taking more .

    3. I live in a neighborhood in which everyone took the jab , except me. Two neighbors have died in sleep so far. I have a friend who lives about 5 blocks from me, who had some pretty weird symptoms after taking the jabs, but he said he’s not taking more jabs.
      I never took vaccines anyway, but I wasn’t about to take this warp speed lab rat expierment. I figured I was going to get Covid, but it turns out I just got a runny nose for two days.
      Not worried about monkey pox either.

      1. I have a friend who lives about 5 blocks from me

        We’re still in the pre-game show. Just wait until the ump shouts “play ball!” Of course the media will shrug and say, “Golly jeepers, who knows why so many people are dying young? Maybe it’s global warming?”

    4. I’ve long ago stopped proselytizing about the Housing Bubble to friends and family. The California real estate religion is a cult, and its following has permeated the entire US population at this juncture in history. Why waste my breath on people who won’t listen and who don’t worry about the risk of locking themselves into an overpriced long-term commitment which they will soon regret?

      1. ‘The California real estate religion is a cult, and its following has permeated the entire US population at this juncture in history’.

        as Californians told US that ‘long term’ real estate in California only went up – and for anybody who didn’t have to liquidate in the busts
        it always was a sure bet.

  39. I hear debtdonkeys cry
    I hear them woe
    They never learn
    a steady diet of crow
    And I think to myself
    ………..What a wonderful world💕

    Plano, TX Housing Prices Crater 29% YOY As Dallas Area Land And Lot Prices Plunge

    https://www.movoto.com/plano-tx/market-trends/

    As a national land broker explained, “There is a globe full of land were fully 95% of it goes undeveloped. Land is essentially worthless dirt. If you paid more than $500 an acre, you got ripped off.

    2. Yikes!!! Those that bought there last year are already 300K under water when adding selling costs and realtor fees. Hope nobody put 40% down.

  42. Dr. Jordan Peterson – WEF/Communism is the Enemy
    Live From The Shed
    Aug 2, 2022 Jordan Peterson speaks about the ongoing international battle against the WEF, globalism and communism inspired by Canadian Truckers. Full interview on Peterson’s YouTube or Spotify.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7m2UYBT5zYE

    5:50.

  43. I predict a royal housing crash, and probably a eventual depression globally.

    They are going for round 2 of the mass destruction of current systems so the Great Reset can take place.
    Billions of people can foil their plans by just not complying to round 2. They got away with round one because people were caught off guard, but they can’t get away with round two, no way.

    1. Stocks fall a second day on U.S.-China tensions, hawkish comments from Fed leaders
      Carmen Reinicke
      Samantha Subin

      Stocks slumped on Tuesday as investors weighed increased tensions between the U.S. and China with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan visit and reacted to comments from Federal Reserve presidents about the central bank’s path forward.

      The S&P 500 slipped 0.67% to 4,091.19 after being down nearly 1% earlier in the session. The benchmark had earlier climbed off of lows as Pelosi’s plane landed safely in Taiwan Tuesday morning. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also shed 402.23 points, or 1.23%, to 32,396.17. Caterpillar weighed on the 30-stock index and shares slid after the company posted disappointing quarterly earnings. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.16% to 12,348.76, even though Uber jumped 18.9% following earnings.

      Stocks wavered early in the afternoon, reacting to multiple comments from regional Fed presidents who all threw cold water on the idea that the central bank will be done raising rates or move them lower anytime soon.

      Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said that he hopes the central bank can raise its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point in September and then continue with quarter-point hikes until the start of the second quarter in 2023. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that the central bank still has work ahead to combat inflation.

      Later, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, said that several more months of evidence that inflation has peaked will be needed before the central bank ends its rate hike cycle.

      In political news, Pelosi is expected to spend the night in Taiwan, Reuters reported. Leading up to the trip, Chinese officials threatened to act if Pelosi moved forward with the visit. Pelosi is the most senior U.S. official to meet with Taiwan leaders on the island since former House Speaker Newt Gingrich visited in 1997.

      “I do think the trip will not lead to any real economic disruption, but of course the rhetoric and the headlines start to intensify and it’s something we need to watch going forward,” said Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones senior investment strategist, on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Tuesday. “Geopolitical tension has been a theme we’ve really been seeing all year that has been weighing on markets.”
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/01/stock-futures-are-flat-after-first-trading-day-in-august.html

  46. https://youtu.be/PU5xxh5UX4U

    Elvis Presley – Return To Sender

    Return to lender
    Return to lender

    She got a letter from the postman
    The bank is on her back
    Bright and early next morning
    She’s loading her luggage rack

    She wrote upon it
    Return to lender, no more mortgage loan
    Fully picked and plundered, no blood from a stone

    Charleston, SC Housing Prices Crater 27% YOY As Land And Lot Prices Plummet

    https://www.movoto.com/charleston-sc/market-trends/

    1. The Financial Times
      Hedge funds
      Investors grow frustrated with hedge funds after historic losses
      Industry is on track to post one of its worst years on record as long-short players struggle
      From left: Glen Kacher, founder and president of Light Street Capital Management; Lee Ainslie, fund manager for Maverick Capital; and Daniel Loeb, chief executive of Third Point
      Laurence Fletcher in London
      45 minutes ago

      Hedge funds are heading for one of their worst years of performance on record, leaving investors frustrated with how many managers have failed to offset sharp falls in equity and bond markets.

      Funds were down 5.6 per cent on average in the first six months of 2022, according to HFR. While a narrower HFR daily index of performance shows them clawing back around 0.5 per cent last month, the industry is nevertheless on track for its second-worst year of returns since 1990, when the data provider’s records begin — beaten only by steep losses during the 2008 global financial crisis.

      Much of the pain has been concentrated in so-called long-short equity funds, which manage around $1.2tn in assets and which bet on rising and falling stock prices. They dropped 12 per cent on average in the first half of the year, according to HFR. The group was expected to have gained only around 1 per cent in July, according to an estimate by JPMorgan head of positioning intelligence John Schlegel, a much shallower rebound than the 7 per cent rally last month for global equities.

      “Clearly, in long-short equity it’s been a complete disaster,” said Scott Wilson, chief investment officer of the endowment fund at the Washington University in St Louis, Missouri, adding that some funds had given up years of gains in this year’s sell-off. He said it had been a “rough year” for funds that had bet on the fast-growing companies that were in vogue at the height of the pandemic but have pulled back sharply in 2022.

      Among the funds suffering is ‘Tiger cub’ Lee Ainslie’s Maverick Capital, which made double-digit gains in each of the past three years but was down 35 per cent in the first six months of the year. Fellow cub Glen Kacher’s Light Street was down more than 40 per cent.

      Daniel Loeb’s Third Point fell around 20 per cent in the first half of the year, having lost money on stocks including software firm SentinelOne and electric-vehicle maker Rivian Automotive, according to investor documents. And Skye Global, set up by former Third Point analyst Jamie Sterne, fell more than 35 per cent in the first half of this year after losing 10.4 per cent in June, according to numbers sent to investors.
      …

      1. “Investors grow frustrated with hedge funds after historic losses”

        How draconian. Those poor (sniff) investors!

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