A Classic Case Of What Goes Up, Can Come Down
A report from NBC Bay Area in California. “Median home prices in San Francisco have fallen by more than $300,000 in three months, Compass reports. Experts said it is tough to buy a home now as prices are likely to fall further. ‘As that’s happening, we’re seeing sales start to dip,’ said Nicole Bachaud, a senior economist at Zillow. ‘We’re seeing homes stay on the market longer so inventory is beginning to pool up, and that’s going to drop prices as demand is taking a step back because people just can’t afford to be transacting in this market.”
“Meanwhile, Redfin numbers show some prospective homebuyers are getting cold feet. The real estate website reports 23% of those who signed a contract to buy a home in Northern California backed out of the deal — that is double the number from last year.”
The Los Angeles Times in California. “As the housing market has slowed across Southern California and the country, sellers have had to adjust their expectations.Homes that would have received dozens of offers at the beginning of the year get just a few these days. Other properties receive none, forcing owners to slash their asking price and relinquish dreams of record profits. Now, some would-be sellers are calling it quits all together.”
“For Ara Kassabian, there’s no deadline forcing his hand. The 56-year-old software engineer wants to eventually sell his three-bedroom home in Glendale, take the proceeds and retire in Portugal. He had been planning to do that in coming months, but no longer. If he sold his home now, Kassabian estimates he’d pocket a couple of hundred thousand dollars less than if the market had stayed hot — extra money that could’ve gone a long way in Portugal. ‘If I wait a year, probably the market will take off again, and I could get a lot more,’ he said.”
A press release. “‘The last four buyers I’ve worked with have all backed out of deals,’ said Alexis Malin, a Redfin agent in Jacksonville. ‘One of my clients asked the seller for money to cover the home being repainted. The seller said no at first, so my buyer canceled the contract, but the seller then changed their mind and repainted the whole house. My buyer still walked away because he decided he didn’t love the home that much after all and he knew he had other options.'”
“In Jacksonville, roughly 800 home-purchase agreements were called off in July, equal to 29.3% of homes that went under contract that month. That’s the highest percentage among the 93 U.S. metropolitan areas Redfin analyzed. Next came Las Vegas (27.4%), Lakeland, FL (26.2%), New Orleans (25.9%), San Antonio (25%), Orlando, FL (24.5%), Palm Bay, FL (24.5%), Deltona, FL (24%), Atlanta (23.7%) and Pensacola, FL (23.6%). Metros must have had at least 1,000 pending home sales in July to be included.”
“Nationwide, roughly 63,000 home-purchase agreements fell through in July, equal to 16.1% of homes that went under contract that month, according to Redfin. That’s the highest percentage on record with the exception of March and April 2020, when the onset of the coronavirus pandemic brought the housing market to a near standstill.”
The Boston Globe in Massachusetts. “Just 1,380 single-family homes were sold in July, an 18.6 percent decline from the 1,696 sold in July 2021, according to the Greater Boston Association of Realtors. That represents the lowest number of single-family home sales in any July since 2011. Similarly, condominium sales dropped about 25 percent. Single-family home and condominium prices are up from this time last year, at $841,500 and $680,000, respectively. But both those figures are down from June, when the median sales price for a single-family home hit a whopping $899,950.”
“The latest numbers are a sign that, after a red-hot first half of the year, home prices in Greater Boston may finally have peaked. ‘It’s a much different market now than when the year started. Sellers still hold the upper hand, but they no longer get to name their price and terms,’ said GBAR President Melvin A. Vieira, Jr. ‘There’s a little more room for negotiation these days.'”
The Washington Post. “‘The party’s over,’ according to Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. While home sellers may feel sad about the end of bidding wars, buyers in the D.C. region are more likely to feel relief. Approximately 24 percent of homes for sale in D.C. had a price drop in June, according to Bright MLS. By neighborhood, price drops ranged from a low of eight percent of listings in Park View to a high of 46 percent in Fort Dupont Park.”
“Other D.C. neighborhoods with the highest percentage of reduced sales prices include Marshall Heights (43 percent), Southwest Waterfront (42 percent), Carver Langston (39 percent) and Lily Ponds (39 percent). Neighborhoods where sellers lowered their prices in June include Adams Morgan (30 percent), Deanwood (29 percent), Dupont Circle (26 percent), Georgetown (23 percent), Petworth (20 percent), Mount Pleasant (20 percent) and Capitol Hill (19 percent).”
From Deseret News. “‘In short, the housing downturn has some way yet to run,’ Pantheon Macro chief economist Ian Shepherdson told Fortune, calling it ‘grim’ data. He also noted the home builder index has failed to surpass economist projections every month since January. The survey also showed present and expected sales also fell again in August, maintaining the ‘steep and sustained’ decline in mortgage demand, which has plummeted nearly 30% from a December peak, Shepherdson said.”
“‘The collapse points to clear and substantial downside risk for housing construction over the next few months, as builders try to manage their excess inventory,’ Shepherdson told Fortune. ‘That will be impossible without hefty price declines, now that developers are competing with rapidly rising inventory in the existing homes market.'”
From CNN Business. “The housing numbers on Tuesday were, in a word: ‘Terrible,’ according to Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. He added the single-family starts have now dropped by 30% from their November 2020 peak. And this is likely not the floor, Shepherdson cautioned. ‘In short, the whole housing sector is now in retreat,’ he said.”
US News and World Report. “‘There has been a dramatic turnaround in buyer activity in a relatively short time,’ said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. ‘Just months ago, buyers were falling over one another to bid up prices of new homes as the inventory of existing homes was at historically low levels. Now, in the wake of higher mortgage rates prospective buyers are canceling contracts and taking themselves off of waiting lists for new homes prompting builders to slash home prices.'”
WFAA TV in Texas. “Almost half of all active listings in the Fort Worth housing market have had price reductions as demand continues to cool. The median home price for a home sold in Fort Worth dipped again in July. Additionally, active listings were up 40% year over year last month, according to a report from the Greater Fort Worth Association of Realtors. In Johnson and Parker Counties, those numbers were up more than 70%. With inventory rising and demand slowing from its previous fever pitch, 49% of active listings have had price reductions, said Shannon Ashkinos, 2022 president of the Greater Fort Worth Association of Realtors. ‘I think that it’s a correction in the market,’ she said.”
ABC 15 in Arizona. “The Valley housing market continues to cool down and the impact is being felt in some areas more than others. Based on the most recent Cromford Index data, cities on the outskirts of the Phoenix metro, like Buckeye, Queen Creek, and the town of Maricopa, have moved deep into buyer’s market territory. The East Valley suburbs of Gilbert, Tempe, and Chandler continue to shift in the same direction. In the entire Phoenix metro area, the number of homes on the market in July was just under 15,000, a monthly high not seen since 2019.”
“Four major real estate markets around the state are seeing a decrease in the median listing price. Flagstaff, Phoenix, Show Low, and Tucson are all seeing monthly price decreases in listings in a range from 3% to almost 4.5%. One analyst at a major real estate company in the Valley characterized the market in one word: uncertainty. Right now, it does appear that the housing cool-down in Phoenix, and much of the state, will only continue.”
The Stanwood-Camano News in Washington. “In the Stanwood-Camano area, there were 141 homes on the market in July — about double from a year ago. On Camano, the median price of the 34 homes sold in July was $601,000, down slightly from $615,000 a year ago, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Locally, home construction companies are building ‘at a monumental rate’ while trying to adjust to increases in mortgage rates, said John Deely, executive vice president of Coldwell Bank Bain. ‘We are seeing builders moving their price points down and providing incentives to buyers in closing costs and buydowns to help borrowers.'”
Canadian Mortgage Trends. “Canada’s national average home prices fell for the fifth consecutive month in July, and is now down 23% since reaching a peak in February. Regionally, Ontario and British Columbia are seeing the brunt of the price declines, as they were also the provinces that saw the largest gains over the past year. Economists, including RBC senior economist Robert Hogue, noted that a bottom in housing is ‘likely many months away’ given that further rate hikes are still expected from the Bank of Canada.”
“‘The pandemic may not be over, but the pandemic-era housing market boom certainly is,’ Hogue wrote. ‘With the balance of power having dramatically shifted in their favour, buyers will be in a position to continue extracting price concessions from sellers for some time to come.'”
The Globe and Mail in Canada. “In Ontario’s Oakville-Milton region, a wealthy area west of Toronto, the home price index was down 17 per cent on a seasonally adjusted basis from February to July. The typical home price lost $266,000 over that period. In Mississauga, a large urban centre that borders Toronto, the home price index fell 13 per cent. In Brantford and Barrie, the typical home price was down 14 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively. In B.C.’s Chilliwack region and the Fraser Valley, the index was down 9 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively.”
“From peak prices in February, the national home price index is down 6 per cent. That marks the largest five-month decline since the financial crisis. And it does not fully reflect the impact of the Bank of Canada’s latest interest rate hike in mid-July, when the central bank increased its benchmark rate by one full percentage point to 2.5 per cent. ‘Onward and downward for now,’ said Robert Kavcic, senior economist with Bank of Montreal, in a note to clients, adding that July resale numbers do not ‘fully reflect’ the latest interest rate move.”
The Georgia Straight in Canada. “‘Based on early readings of transaction data over July, we are expecting the peak-to-trough decline in prices since the first quarter to continue to push towards our forecast of 19%,’ TD Economics stated in a summary of recent events and what to expect ahead. The post was written by Toronto Dominion bank’s director of economics, James Orlando. ‘With the BoC unlikely to pause on rate hikes until later this year, the real estate sector’s fall from grace isn’t done yet,’ Orlando stated.”
The Telegraph. “Measures to help homeowners on benefits have failed to match the Bank of England’s six consecutive increases in interest rates since the end of last year. Sophie Evans, 54, lives in the Midlands and has a £107,000 interest-only mortgage on a tracker deal. Her mortgage rate has nearly doubled from 2.26pc to 4pc as the Bank Rate rose and her bills have become unaffordable. Ms Evans is disabled and cannot work and so receives SMI, which largely covered her mortgage until this year.”
“Her mortgage bill has jumped by 80pc to £360 and she now needs to find £170 per month to avoid defaulting – around 12pc of her income. She said: ‘It hurts, especially when all the other bills are going up. I am worried that I will face repossession. Being disabled, I don’t know what else I can cut back. There will be so many people getting into arrears. There will be a tsunami of repossessions.'”
From News 7. “New analysis from ANZ on Wednesday predicted that the national median house price could drop $150,518 by next year if prices continue to fall as expected. That means the median house price for an Australian property could fall 8 per cent this year and 9 per cent next year, landing at $666,141 by December 2023 – however, the amount will differ from state to state. ‘This is a classic case of what goes up, can come down,’ Rate City research director Sally Tindall said.”
“New homeowners may find that their home is worth less by next year than what they paid for it ‘which could make it difficult to refinance, especially if their equity has dropped below 20 per cent,’ Tindall said. ‘For those who bought a new home at the peak, news of big property price drops might make them feel sick to the stomach. ‘If you are in this position, don’t panic. Prices do fluctuate and if you can still make your mortgage repayments, it may be worth riding out the drops, as prices do tend to eventually go back up.'”
From Reuters. “Chinese developers in ‘survival mode’ sharply cut property investment in July while new construction starts suffered their biggest fall in nearly a decade, suggesting the liquidity-challenged sector is not about to turn the corner anytime soon. ‘Everyone except state-owned enterprises is in survival mode,’ said a senior official at a Shenzhen-based developer, speaking on condition of anonymity. ‘We’re all waiting for a recovery and trying to speed up sales and reduce costs and buy less land. But at the end of the day, sales depend on the end users.'”
“‘We’ll just have to tighten our belts, and our top priority is to make sure housing projects are delivered,’ an official at a developer that once defaulted on bonds told Reuters. ‘It’s really hard to raise funds once your credibility is damaged,’ said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity.”
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‘Hong Kong’s audit regulator will look into 13.4 billion yuan of deposits the subsidiary used to back several loans. The investigation will also cover the audit work carried out by PwC on the company’s 2020 annual accounts.’
‘Hong Kong’s audit regulator has expanded its probe into the property services arm of embattled developer China Evergrande to look into 13.4 billion yuan of deposits the subsidiary used to back several loans, later revealed to have been channelled to its parent.’
‘The investigation will also cover the audit work carried out by PwC on the company’s 2020 annual accounts, the FRC said in a press release issued on Monday. PwC said it does not comment on client matters when asked by the Post about the FRC’s investigation.’
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/money/other/hong-kong-e2-80-99s-audit-watchdog-expands-probe-into-embattled-china-evergrande-e2-80-99s-property-services-unit/ar-AA10FV9u
This is as close to a scandal as you get in the accounting world, and I said so as it unfolded, while bloomberg ran flak for evergrande.
‘We’ll just have to tighten our belts, and our top priority is to make sure housing projects are delivered,’ an official at a developer that once defaulted on bonds told Reuters. ‘It’s really hard to raise funds once your credibility is damaged’
You mean those gringo’s aren’t handing over billion$ after you singled them out for schlonging?
Median home prices in San Francisco have fallen by more than $300,000 in three months.
Yer crowz eat you Thornberg:
via GIPHY
‘Flagstaff, Phoenix, Show Low, and Tucson are all seeing monthly price decreases’
Pretty much the entire state.
DONG!
Kingman must be taking a real beating.
PS – Joshua Tree still taking me to the bottom of the page if I click “reply.”
I noticed that too.
I find it interesting that Kingman, Stockton, Merced and the like aren’t leading the way down. It’s the big metros.
Wonder if it’s because the people who used to work in the city but can now work remotely never wanted to be in those shitholes to begin with, and are trying to never go back.
And marking the entire threads’ comments as read.
Mine is working on Chrome.
Oops. Marked all the comments as read.
It’s not the joshua tree extension, cuz I’ve never installed it on my computers. I was playing around with some performance tweeks and plug-in updates as I was having sluggish response times. I’ll have to go see if I changed any comment settings.
It looks like the plugin which moved the reply box under the comment you are replying to isn’t there anymore…if you look at the URL at the top, it now includes the information about the comment your’e replying to (and reloads the page when you click ‘reply’)
‘If he sold his home now, Kassabian estimates he’d pocket a couple of hundred thousand dollars less than if the market had stayed hot’
Wa? Does this mean Glendale is down 200k?
Sacré bleu!
‘If I wait a year, probably the market will take off again, and I could get a lot more,’ he said.”
Relax Ben, he is sure if he waits a year he will get the $200,000 back and probably more.
Not giving it away!
‘Single-family home…prices are up from this time last year, at $841,500…median sales price for a single-family home hit a whopping $899,950’
Thought you could sneak that one in, huh REIC?
The last four buyers I’ve worked with have all backed out of deals’
Those were the winnahs! Alexis?
‘One of my clients asked the seller for money to cover the home being repainted. The seller said no at first, so my buyer canceled the contract, but the seller then changed their mind and repainted the whole house. My buyer still walked away because he decided he didn’t love the home that much after all and he knew he had other options’
That’s the spirit!
‘In Jacksonville, roughly 800 home-purchase agreements were called off in July, equal to 29.3% of homes that went under contract that month’
Is that a lot?
‘Almost half of all active listings in the Fort Worth housing market have had price reductions as demand continues to cool. The median home price for a home sold in Fort Worth dipped again in July. Additionally, active listings were up 40% year over year last month, according to a report from the Greater Fort Worth Association of Realtors. In Johnson and Parker Counties, those numbers were up more than 70%’
These last two counties are far flung. Drive til you qualify is an aspect of subprime lending.
Rapidly rising inventory, falling prices, tightening credit, a contracting economy, and buyers sitting on the sideline. Gosh, it looks to me like we have all the ingredients for a bursting housing bubble. Maybe this is something you & the HBB should look into, Ben.
I looked at a house the other day. They advertised it as a 4bdr/2bath.
It was really 3brm/2.5 bath and some prior owner closed off the garage and called it an extra bedroom despite it having all the utility hookups in there.
The dude selling it wanted 300k for what was actually a 1200 sq foot house with a huge utility room being sold as a 1600 sq ft house.
Today I opened up my Zillow to see the seller cut the price by 15k. I know they had showings upon showings on that house. Guess no one wants to be screwed over by it.
I wouldn’t even look at houses right now. Everything is grossly overpriced. It will be years before any sanity returns to pricing – like 75% off in some areas.
“Median home prices in San Francisco have fallen by more than $300,000 in three months, Compass reports. Experts said it is tough to buy a home now as prices are likely to fall further.”
Try not to catch yourself a falling knife.
That’s $3,333 per day. If yer counting.
Is that a lot?
Just a few pints of ice cream if you’re Nancy. Or a 14-year old hooker and a stash of crack if if you’re Hunter.
Money’s about perspective!
That’s worse than paying a month’s rent on our place every day. And it doesn’t even consider carrying or transactions costs.
Ouch!
‘The party’s over’
Eat yer crowz taxpayer…
The FBI plants child porn in their computers. That’s how honest and trustworthy this agency is
https://www.bitchute.com/video/8es5Lsb1tbhn/
42 seconds.
“In May 2013, while still employed by CBS, Sharyl Attkisson alleged that her personal and work computers had been “compromised” for more than two years. CBS News stated that it had investigated her work computer and found evidence of multiple unauthorized accesses by a third party in late 2012. The U.S. Department of Justice denied any involvement. In her 2014 book, she wrote that a forensic examination revealed that her personal computer was hacked with keystroke logging spyware, enabling an intruder to read all her e-mail messages and gain access to the passwords for her financial accounts.” —wiki
Looks like not everybody is on board with “gender-affirming” surgery.
Far-Right Extremists Are Threatening to ‘Execute’ Doctors at a Children’s Hospital
https://www.vice.com/en/article/epzv9a/libsoftiktok-trans-children-boston-hospital
“Looks like not everybody is on board with “gender-affirming” surgery.“
– This is worse than medical malpractice. More like Nazi Germany’s inhumane medical “experiments.” During the Holocaust. These troglodytes are pure evil.
– Let the punishment fit the crime: Forced gender reassignment surgery for those convicted of this barbaric and inhuman mutilation.
– Sex is binary and immutable for a lifetime.
Lobbyist Jack Abramoff used to characterize his clients, Native American tribes, as troglodytes.
Executions are overdue for a lot of “doctors”.
I’m shocked it hasn’t happened yet but unless you’re a child the shot was ultimately your choice.
Na na na na
Na na na na
Hey hey
Goodbye!
Liz Cheney blames 37-point primary loss on TRUMP and says she is ‘thinking about’ running for President: Accuses Donald of LYING about Mar-a-Lago raid, slams Republicans and says nation is ‘facing biggest challenge’ since the Civil War
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11119787/Liz-Cheney-blames-37-point-primary-loss-TRUMP-thinking-running-President.html
‘Bye bye Cheney’: Donald Trump Jr releases ‘priceless’ video
Sky News Australia
Aug 17, 2022 Donald Trump Jr has released a “priceless” montage video of his father dancing at various events to celebrate Liz Cheney losing to Harriet Hageman in Wyoming’s Republican primary.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BITBjv6RJqI
3:14.
BWHAHAHAHAHAAAHAAHAAAA!!!
“‘Bye bye Cheney’: Donald Trump Jr releases ‘priceless’ video”
🙂
LMAO
Good riddance you treasonous wench.
Maybe she can spend her newfound free time hunting with dad? 😁
The Last Waltz
The Night They Took Liz Cheney Down, and the bells were ringing,
The Night That RINO Hit The Ground, and the people were singin’,
They went La, La, La, La, La, La,
La, La, La, La, La, La, La, La
PS
I had Bull Dyke instead of RINO but I didn’t want to insult the Bull Dykes.
https://youtu.be/6dDbnwQlCek
‘Former President Donald Trump suggested that the Jan. 6 committee should be dissolved, following the defeat of Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) in a GOP primary on Aug. 16, calling the vote a “referendum” and that “the people have spoken.”
“Congratulations to Harriet Hageman on her great and very decisive WIN in Wyoming. This is a wonderful result for America, and a complete rebuke of the Unselect Committee of political Hacks and Thugs,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform on Aug. 16.’
“Liz Cheney should be ashamed of herself, the way she acted, and her spiteful, sanctimonious words and actions towards others,” Trump continued. “Now she can finally disappear into the depths of political oblivion where, I am sure, she will be much happier than she is right now.”
“Thank you WYOMING!” Trump added. The result was not unexpected, considering that nearly 70 percent of Wyoming residents voted for Trump in the 2020 presidential election.’
‘The third-term incumbent from Wyoming is the fourth Republican who voted for Trump’s impeachment to be defeated by candidates endorsed by the former president. The other three are Reps. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.), Peter Meijer (R-Mich.), and Tom Rice (R-S.C.).’
“I assume that with the very big Liz Cheney loss, far bigger than had ever been anticipated, the January 6th Committee of political Hacks and Thugs will quickly begin the beautiful process of DISSOLUTION?” Trump wrote in another Truth Social post on Tuesday.’
“This was a referendum on the never ending Witch Hunt. The people have spoken!” Trump added.’
https://www.theepochtimes.com/trump-says-cheneys-defeat-a-complete-rebuke-of-jan-6-committee_4670182.html
That’s what happens when you brazenly and blatantly go against the wishes of your constituents and satiate your own mental illness. She has TDS to the max. And so does her dad, that fookin’ pig-faced liar.
Winter Park, FL Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As Sellers Get Yanked Through A Knothole Backwards
https://www.movoto.com/winter-park-fl/market-trends/
As one economist joked, “Elvis sightings are more credible than anything a Realtor says.”
A reader sent these in:
Domestic Loan Growth: China Real Estate Companies
-27.20% lowest on record
https://twitter.com/sunchartist/status/1559794370714693632
Many expressed confusion on Fed MBS QT. @Johncomiskey77
has put together a detailed post on how using publicly available data you can clearly see that MBS QT is happening as promised.
https://twitter.com/FedGuy12/status/1559096495323889667
*Redfin: About 63,000 Home-Purchase Agreements Called Off in July, Equal to 16% of Homes Under Contract That Month
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1559512941636063232
Odeta Kushi
U.S. housing starts were expected to fall to an annual pace of 1.52 million in July, but instead came in at 1.446 million. This is 9.6% below the revised June estimate of 1.599 and is 8.1% below the July 2021 rate. SF starts declined 10.1 % MoM to the lowest since June 2020.
https://twitter.com/odetakushi/status/1559518811019173888
Its going to be a painful lesson for the bulls who think free money is slam dunk again. The balance sheet will be shrinking for YEARS, and they will never buy MBS or corporates again short of armageddon. Rates will kept above the ZLB if at all possible.
https://twitter.com/Stimpyz1/status/1559569030473625600
US mortgage payments as percentage of income higher than at the top of the subprime bubble👇 What could go wrong?
https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1559575293748191233
Danielle DiMartino Booth
We knew it was going to be ugly…
At least Permits were down less than expected…
https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1559518476246683650
Aaron Layman
Interesting since Compass has admitted in their own slide decks that part of their plan is to pay their agents less. I’m sure they’ll love that. 😅
https://mobile.twitter.com/dfwaaronlayman/status/1559342012318482433
“91% of Realtors today have not sold
in a market with DOM over 45 days
and interest rates over 4%” – President of Re/Max Canada on Instagram
https://twitter.com/daniel_foch/status/1559347074667368450
Phoenix home sales cancellation rate at a staggering 45%. Looks like the drought isn’t just hitting the water supply.
https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1559695217170604033
Its going to be a painful lesson for the bulls who think free money is slam dunk again. The balance sheet will be shrinking for YEARS, and they will never buy MBS or corporates again short of armageddon. Rates will kept above the ZLB if at all possible.
This is one of those truths were 95% of everyone simply ignores. Either think it through to its logic end….. Or ignore at your own peril. It’s your funeral.
Oh dear…the sheeple who elected globalist Quisling regimes in the Nordic countries might not be too happy if their state pension funds see billions in Yellen Bux valuations vaporized when the central bankers’ Everything Bubble implodes.
Norway’s wealth fund loses record $174 billion in first half of 2022
https://english.alarabiya.net/business/economy/2022/08/17/Norway-s-wealth-fund-loses-record-174-billion-in-first-half-of-2022
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, made a record loss of 1.68 trillion Norwegian crowns ($174 billion) in the first half of 2022 as stocks and bonds were hit by global recession fears and rampant price inflation.
The $1.3 trillion fund’s return on investment was a negative 14.4 percent for the January-June period, which was still 1.14 percentage points ahead of the return on its benchmark index.
ATLANTA
Home Buyers NOW Have all the Power in Georgia!
Aug 16, 2022 Home Buyers NOW Have all the Power in Georgia!
We are in a shifting market! Is this better for buyers? Yes!
Just 6 months ago, the housing market in Georgia was on fire. On homes that sold, we were experiencing multiple offers over asking price of $50K to $75K with no financing or appraisal contingencies with 2% earnest money and sometimes even no due diligence period (inspection)!
Fast forward to a few months later to now, and we are seeing a market shift right before our eyes that is night and day difference from earlier this year! Now, inventory is increasing, homes are staying on the market longer, more price reductions are happening, and seller concessions are more abundant.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZX8xWjabJHA
4:26.
Dutch Farmers: Police Arrest Over 100, as Protestors Vow Continued Resistance Against EU Green Agenda
PETER CADDLE
16 Aug 2022
Police in the Netherlands have reportedly arrested over 100 people in relation to protests against EU green agenda measures which will see up to 30 per cent of livestock farms in the country forced to close.
While described by the Dutch government as being part of an “unavoidable transition” towards Great Reset-style reforms mandated by bigwigs in Brussels, farmers in the country have been actively resisting the changes, blocking motorways and food distribution centres in the hopes of bringing authorities to heel.
According to a report by NOS News, police have responded to the demonstrations by cracking down on protesters, with over 100 people being arrested in relation to the anti-green agenda demonstrations in recent weeks, with hundreds more being handed fines for actions resisting the measures.
Perhaps more interestingly, the national broadcaster reported that around one-quarter of such arrests did not occur during the period when alleged offences supposedly took place, but after the events, with police taking the time to track down individual protesters, a number of whom end up being remanded in police custody for considerable periods of time.
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2022/08/16/dutch-farmers-police-arrest-over-100-as-protestors-vow-continued-resistance-against-eu-green-agenda/
The globalists are not backing down from this fight. They will shut down as many farmers as they can. A global famine is part and parcel of the great reset.
You will eat insects and be happy
Jun 2, 2022
You will eat insects and be happy. Elites from around the world at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland would like us to eat bugs
https://youtu.be/ghVxhgHGBgg
Phoenix housing market starting to cool down
ABC15 Arizona
Aug 17, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvkVT3-fKlE
2 minutes.
Phoenix metro cities housing market cooling down
ABC15 Arizona
Aug 16, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSksGFvnllo
2:25.
Home prices will stay the same this cycle, says Realtor.com’s Danielle Hale
CNBC Television
Aug 16, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAkwrpnZ3SI
4:13.
Buyers: Prices Are Down in the Phoenix Market
Aug 16, 2022 Many of your clients may be on the fence about their real estate plans due to rising rates, but I bring good news—we’ve had over 10,000 price reductions in the Phoenix housing market! If you have buyer clients who have been waiting on the sidelines for prices to drop, now is the best time to talk to them. On top of price reductions, there are other reasons why they should shop for homes again. To learn more about why it’s the perfect time to buy, watch this short video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nPvqApMbtg
2 minutes.
Oh this is darwin at work…….
https://www.yahoo.com/news/woman-charged-murder-kiss-inmate-055240785.html
Colorado’s housing market showing signs of cooling off
9NEWS
Aug 17, 2022 Some metro area home sellers are offering to help pay some financing costs because of rising rates and a cooling market.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PdW9rVraQk
3 minutes.
Mississauga Home Prices are dropping like crazy!
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/zvuGXe7l8es
1 minute.
Pasco, WA Housing Prices Crater 22% YOY As Plunging Land Values And Diving Home Prices Stretch From Coast To Coast
https://www.movoto.com/pasco-wa/market-trends/
As a renown economist explained, “A house is a rapidly depreciating asset that empties your wallet every day it owns you.”
Eagle has made it down the stairs. 🙂
https://youtube.com/shorts/bjQ-OKI9Bw8?feature=share
The Eagle can’t find the armhole in his jacket. 🙂 🙂
https://youtube.com/shorts/LRJlj6osnRM?feature=share
End Wokeness
@EndWokeness
·
This is what dementia looks like:
https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1559635564248301568?s=20&t=YwJKDraGNzHLEy1xKXo0SA
Manchin does a nice job covering as Schumer looks like WTF is he doing with the pen, but whoever is standing next to the woman in the orange dress couldn’t cover it up as he looked away with that OMG face.
Anyone noticed NAR’s latest teevee commercials? They’re so obscenely antithetical to what realtors truly are you have to wonder if they run them to get everyone to blow a headgasket.🤣
Are San Diego home prices headed for the bottom of CR8R lake?
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/story/2022-08-17/buyers-are-just-not-wanting-to-look-right-now-san-diego-home-prices-decline-for-2nd-month
May median home price was $850,000. July median was $800,000.
That’s a two month decline of 5.9%, at an annualized rate of decline of 1-(800/850)^6 = 30.5%. Note also that a one year loss of 30.5% wipes out a gain of 1/(1-0.305)-1 = 43.9%.
San Diego investors must be shifting bricks about now!
Note also that a one year loss of 30.5% wipes out a gain of 1/(1-0.305)-1 = 43.9%.
This is an very important point. Most people don’t understand that the downside will be a smaller % than the upside % assuming the upside goes first.
Example I use is: $300K with a 33.3% gain is wiped out by a 25% loss.
$300K at +33.3% = $400K less 25% = $300K.
a one year loss of 30.5% wipes out a gain of 1/(1-0.305)-1 = 43.9%
I like your addition of this calculation.
%CHG = ((final value – initial value) / initial value) * 100
On the way up the final value is larger, but on the way down… 🙂
%CHG
That’s a different calculation and one that I do know off the top of my head.
The formula that I know is that if you bought in the past decade, you’ll get your @$$ handed to you.
So back to 2020.
At least China and the US have one thing in common: Boatloads of unhappy real estate investors.
Another thing that the US and China have in common:. Bursting housing bubbles
#RNCResearch #Bidenflation
CNN Reports On Americans Fleeing U.S. For Mexico Over High Inflation Prices
sAug 16, 2022
https://youtu.be/QQIst-K3YFo
FWIW, they are suffering inflation there too. And contrary to what many think, a first world standard of living is not cheap in Mexico. I have gainfully employed relatives in Mexico City who cannot afford to heat their flat in the winter.
Also, I have read that Mexico is cracking down on tourist visa abuse. It used to be that when you arrived that would automatically gave you 6 months, but now they are asking how long will you be staying, and if it’s more that a few weeks they are starting to say no.
Getting an immigrant visa in Mexico is hard as rocks. Anyway, you can’t just show up and expect to get an immigrant visa.
Charlotte, NC Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY As Price Fixing And Market Rigging Strategies Disintigrate
https://www.movoto.com/nc/28206/market-trends/
As one Charlotte broker conceded, “Sellers are desperate and we have a lot more of them…. and not a buyer in sight at any price.”
“Kassabian estimates he’d pocket a couple of hundred thousand dollars less than if the market had stayed hot — extra money that could’ve gone a long way in Portugal. ‘If I wait a year, probably the market will take off again, and I could get a lot more,’ he said.”
Sure Ara, you better reschedule that year away retirement to 2040.
Bill Melugin
@BillFOXLA
·
NEW: More than 20 illegal immigrants bail out of a human smuggler’s vehicle and run off into the brush as a @TxDPS trooper pursues the smuggler in Laredo, TX. The pursuit later ended in a residential neighborhood, where the smuggler also bailed out & was arrested. @FoxNews
https://twitter.com/BillFOXLA/status/1559556495607578628?s=20&t=BV-XZ3E2ZVwj2w-fl-MfIA
KARI LAKE FAKE NEWS MEDIA AD
https://www.bitchute.com/video/9EGZQNwQyoCc/
1 minute.
Anecdotal from Boston area. Last week a friend bought a condo in a town 60 minutes drive north. List price was $350K. Nine bidders, 5 cash…sold for 90K above asking with an over $600 condo fee. Friend says she keeps being reminded that “it’s equity” and definitely cheaper than renting. True, rents are increasingly bad where we live (I’m still paying way under market) but can’t condo fees go up? I guess time will tell if her “equity” will pay off.
The winters in Bawh-ston are long, cold and snowy, IIRC.
Yes condo fees can go up a lot if you have a lot of “owners” not paying every month, the others have to cover it. That’s what reserve funds are for repairs and deadbeats, …but when that runs out…..
Reserve funds are never enough. Condo (HOA) fees always end up being short because nobody puts aside the 1/20th of a roof every year or the 1/20th of a new parking lot or whatever. Everyone always votes against fee increases, so instead of everyone paying their share of each years depreciation, only the people who still own which it needs a new roof get stuck when that bill comes due and end up with a huge extra amount due (usually thousands of dollars per unit).
The condo fee is $635. I’m amazed that there was a bidding war on this condo.
Rents are insane where I am. We’re talking over 2k per month for a small house.
$3,200 for a 2bd/1ba 900sf house in my zip code.
Paying slightly more rent for a 2 level 4br house just west of the 15 near Poway. We locked in a two year lease before inflation went crazy, so good through 2023…
We pay $3,225 for a 2,400sf 4bd/2.5ba on 1.33 acres. We’ve been here 9 years. My husband managed the property previously.
Last week I paid $48/night, utilities included. I guess that would be $1500/mo on demand. Moved back into the Erie Canal today and mooring is free. I don’t do that week in a marina too often, but there were plenty of good places to eat. Monday Prime Rib at Captain Jack’s for $14.99. Draft was $4.50 though.
My paid-off spec house, 1,550-sqft, 3/2, w/garage costs me almost $500 per month for taxes, insurance, utilities and water, which are required expenses just to live in it.
It could be worse. You could be renting it from the bank for $4000 a month.
Golden, CO Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY On Surging Mortgage Defaults, Soaring Inventory And Plunging Prices
https://www.movoto.com/golden-co/market-trends/
You could also be watching the market value of your home drop at a 30% annual rate while your loan balance grows with interest.
I couldn’t imagine that’d inspire enthusiasm.
Gas Price Hypocrisy
https://youtube.com/shorts/-Rlo_TGBMN8?feature=share
Centreville, VA Housing Prices Crater 18% YOY As Double Digit Price Declines Blanket Fairfax County VA
https://www.movoto.com/va/20120/market-trends/
As one defaulted borrower explained, “We knew we couldn’t afford the house at closing…… but nobody said anything so we did it anyway.”
Someone tell me what the heck is going on with this listing. It’s in a bad part of town and it’s going for $358/ SQ ft.
7/14/2022 Listed for sale $424,900 (+59.8%)$358/sqft
8/20/2021 Listing removed $265,900$224/sqft
4/26/2021 Price change $265,900 (-5%)$224/sqft
3/1/2021 Listed for sale $279,900 (+33.3%)$236/SQ ft
12/25/2020 Listing removed $209,900$177/sqft
10/2/2020 Listed for sale $209,900$177/sqft
9/30/2020 Pending sale $209,900$177/sqft
Looks like a little appraisal fraud going on there.
Sacramento, CA Housing Prices Crater 26% YOY As Northern California Housing Demand Collapses On Soaring Inventory
https://www.movoto.com/ca/95864/market-trends
I’ll second that appraisal fraud.
Not appraisal fraud, just a delusional seller
Appraisal fraud. You don’t get to 6x construction cost for a resale house without it.
Do you understand the difference between “listed for sale” and “sold”?
Don’t fight the Fed my good friend…. Don’t fight the Fed.
Plano, TX Housing Prices Crater 29% YOY As Dallas Area Land And Lot Prices Plunge
https://www.movoto.com/plano-tx/market-trends/
White House Climate Science Overseer Sanctioned And Barred By The National Academy of Sciences – Summit News
https://summit.news/2022/08/17/white-house-climate-science-overseer-sanctioned-and-barred-by-the-national-academy-of-sciences/
(snip)
31 Comments
A senior White House climate advisor has been sanctioned by the National Academy of Sciences for violating its ethics policies.
Axios reports that Jane Lubchenco, the deputy director for climate and environment at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, has been pulled up by the NAS for editing a paper later found to contain technical errors, as well as having worked with the scientists involved in it, one of which turned out to be her brother-in law.
Lubchenco was found to have violated NAS Code of Conduct Section 3, which states that “NAS members shall avoid those detrimental research practices that are clear violations of the fundamental tenets of research.”
The section also notes “Members should be fair and objective peer reviewers, maintain confidentiality when requested, promptly move to correct the literature when errors in their own work are detected, include all deserving authors on publications, and give appropriate credit to prior work in citations.”
Axios notes that Lubchenco commented “I accept these sanctions for my error in judgment in editing a paper authored by some of my research collaborators — an error for which I have publicly stated my regret.”
The report also notes that GOP Representatives Frank Lucas of Oklahoma, Stephanie Bice of Oklahoma and Jay Obernolte of California wrote an open letter in February calling for the White House to ” consider whether Dr. Lubchenco’s leading role in the Administration’s scientific integrity efforts undermines public confidence in future policy decisions.”
The Republicans also noted that “As an editor at the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), Dr. Lubchenco demonstrated a clear disregard for rules meant to prevent conflicts of interest in publishing peer-reviewed studies.”
Project Veritas Drops HUGE DHS Leak That Labels Conservatives As Domestic Terrorists
https://www.bitchute.com/video/b6M2KQ99xFmf/
2:20.
“…Labels Conservatives As Domestic Terrorists”
Conservatives are terrorizing snowflakes and the woke. Demanding that they get full time, 40-hrs per week jobs and pay-off their own student loans is draconian and mean spirited.
When I think of a terrorist, the image I get is of someone who pulls off a mass murder: setting off a bomb, crashing an airliner, poisoning the water works, etc. They seem to think that speaking your mind is an act of violence. Of course, when they do it then it isn’t violent.
Words are violence. Violence is peaceful. Stop being amazed.
Very little amazes me anymore.
Understatement of the year.
In related news, The Atlantic claims that praying the Rosary is an act associated with far right extremism.
I am wondering, how long until they try to permanently shut down churches for “subversive and insurrectionist activity”. Mosques will be excluded, of course.
Is it safe to assume that the stock market will only go up from here on out?
Economics
by Jamie Redman
2 days ago
Peter Schiff Warns US Faces a ‘Massive Financial Crisis,’
Economist Expects Much Larger Problems Than 2008 ‘When the Defaults Start’
The economist and gold bug Peter Schiff usually has a lot to say, and this past week Schiff explained during an interview that he believes the U.S. will face a financial crisis worse than 2008’s ‘Great Recession.’ Schiff explains that the U.S. has a lot more debt than it did back then, and insists America’s economic downturn “is going to be a much bigger crisis when the defaults start.”
While Peter Schiff detailed that he would liquidate his Euro Pacific Bank, the economist sat down to discuss the American economy with the anchor and producer at Kitco News, David Lin. The day before he spoke with Lin, Schiff explained that even though inflation is seemingly cooling, he believes the trend will not last. “Paradoxically investors are selling dollars and buying gold on a lower than expected rise in July CPI, as they think the Fed will adopt a less aggressive policy,” Schiff said on Twitter. “They’re right to sell dollars and buy gold, but for the wrong reasons. The decline in inflation is only temporary.”
…
https://news.bitcoin.com/peter-schiff-warns-us-faces-a-massive-financial-crisis-economist-expects-much-larger-problems-than-2008-when-the-defaults-start/
Markets
CNBC TV
Europe Economy
The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund loses $174 billion in the first half, cites inflation and war in Europe
Published Wed, Aug 17 2022 6:54 AM EDT
Updated Wed, Aug 17 2022 11:52 AM EDT
Hannah Ward-Glenton
Key Points
– The $1.3 trillion fund returned a negative 14.4% during the period, as stocks and bonds reacted violently to global recession fears and skyrocketing inflation.
– The fund’s return on equity investments slipped 17%, while fixed income investments and unlisted renewable energy infrastructure were down 9.3% and 13.3%, respectively.
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the largest in the world, had a loss of 1.68 trillion Norwegian kroner ($174 billion) in the first half of 2022, as stock markets more broadly saw a tumultuous six months.
The $1.3 trillion fund returned a negative 14.4% during the period, as stocks and bonds reacted violently to global recession fears and skyrocketing inflation. But the fund’s return was 1.14 percentage points better than the return of the benchmark index, Norges Bank, the country’s central bank, said Wednesday, equivalent to 156 billion kroner.
“The market has been characterised by rising interest rates, high inflation, and war in Europe. Equity investments are down with as much as 17 percent. Technology stocks have done particularly poorly with a return of -28 percent,” the CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, Nicolai Tangen, said in a release.
…
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/17/norways-sovereign-wealth-fund-loses-174-billion-in-first-half.html
World & Nation
The Chinese dream of homeownership is crumbling. The economy could go with it
Unfinished buildings under construction
Residential buildings under construction last month at Tahoe Group Co.’s Cathay Courtyard development in Shanghai.
(Qilai Shen / Bloomberg/Getty Images)
By Stephanie Yang
Staff Writer
Aug. 15, 2022 Updated 10:08 PM PT
TAIPEI, Taiwan —
Last November, hundreds of angry homeowners in Nanchang, the capital of China’s Jiangxi province, gathered on the roof of an unfinished apartment building. From their perch, they unfurled red and white banners along the outer walls and chanted demands for completion of the homes they had already partially paid for. On the dirt below, workers inflated a large airbag to catch anyone who jumped.
Nearly 500 miles away in Shanghai, a 26-year-old interior designer watched video of the protest on social media, and saw her life plan falling apart.
The woman and her husband, who requested anonymity to avoid retribution, had purchased a three-bedroom unit in the sprawling Xinli City project presale in August 2019. Just a few hours’ drive from both their hometowns, the development was touted as a “750,000-square-meter city of ideal life,” with a day-care center for the couple’s young child. It should have been finished that November. It wasn’t until she saw the video that she learned construction had stopped three months earlier.
Like the vast majority of Chinese home buyers, they had begun making payments before construction was completed. For years, this type of arrangement, which accounts for more than 80% of China’s home sales, gave developers easy access to funds and fueled rapid expansion as home prices soared.
But with financing drying up and debts coming due, the resulting cash crunch has left thousands of units unfinished, and owners boycotting their mortgages in protest.
Demands for answers have elicited excuses, threats or detention, the woman said, and have pushed Xinli City homeowners to take desperate measures. Last month, she stopped paying her 30-year mortgage, along with thousands of others who had bought half-built homes there.
“It’s gotten to the point where no one is taking care of it. So we naturally also have to defend our own rights,” said the woman. “If we the people are not happy, it’s difficult to have a stable society.”
…
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-08-15/the-chinese-dream-of-home-ownership-is-crumbling-the-economy-could-go-with-it
Where’s AlbuquerqueDan at the moment when someone is needed to put in a cheerful word on the Chinese economy?
China’s bursting housing bubble summed up in a viral video, as official tells citizens to ‘Buy one property, then a second. Bought a second? Buy a third, and fourth’
By Yvonne Lau
August 17, 2022 at 1:32 PM PDT
A child on a slide in front of unfinished apartment buildings at the construction site of a China Evergrande Group development in Wuhan, in December 2021.
Andrea Verdelli—Bloomberg/Getty Images
As China’s property crisis deepens and Chinese homeowners across 100 cities refuse to pay their mortgages, some local government officials are taking matters into their own hands.
Deng Bibo, a county party secretary of China’s Hunan province, encouraged everyone to buy multiple homes during his opening speech for a real estate exhibition fair in Shimen, a county of Hunan, on Tuesday.
“I hope that today all comrades will take the lead in buying property,” Deng said. “Buy one property, then buy a second one. If you purchased a second one already, then buy a third. Bought a third? Then buy your fourth.”
The speech went viral on Chinese social media, as netizens made fun of the request. Douyin, the Chinese version of TikTok, has been flooded with videos of Deng’s speech that attracted tens of thousands of user comments on each video. One user responded sarcastically: “It’s as simple as buying vegetables at the vegetable market.” Others questioned where they would get the money to buy multiple homes.
Deng’s speech highlights China’s struggle to contain a growing crisis. For decades, Chinese citizens have funneled their cash into real estate, with a huge share of Chinese household wealth—70%—stored in property. In China, homebuyers pay upfront for a home. These presale funds essentially offer interest-free loans for property developers, which they have used to rapidly expand construction projects.
But the central government noticed the frothy housing market, and has tried to rein in developers’ ability to borrow money so easily. When that cash flow became constrained, it led to stalled building projects and half-finished houses. That means that many of the homes that people bought and paid for in full are not actually being built.
This crisis has intensified in recent weeks as homeowners across the country began refusing to pay their mortgages because of stalled projects and unfinished homes.
The country’s real estate woes threaten to upend its social stability—China’s middle class has long relied on property as its main source of wealth, and it accounts for 25% of the Chinese economy. That means that Chinese citizens are seeing their favorite means of investment no longer working for them—at the same time the nation is facing its biggest economic slowdown in decades.
…
https://fortune.com/2022/08/17/china-property-crisis-housing-bubble-viral-video-official-says-buy-homes/
‘Chinese homeowners across 100 cities refuse to pay their mortgages”
Is 100 alot of cities?
“In the entire Phoenix metro area, the number of homes on the market in July was just under 15,000, a monthly high not seen since 2019.”
I for one am shocked at how quickly the inventory numbers have shot up to above pre-pandemic levels. I thought it would take a year at least. Phoenix is going to drop 70% and I still won’t buy anything in that inferno.
@Disgruntled Floridian: Somewhere that’s Green
I’ve been wanting my own home for 17 years. Hubby reminds me of this song from time to time.