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The Frantic Pace Of Activity Seemed To Evaporate Overnight

A report from the Post Independent in Colorado. “Bryan Snow and his family moved to the Roaring Fork Valley from Denver after his wife got a job in Basalt. They found a house between Carbondale and Iron Bridge. He said it was crazy for a little while. Then he noticed interest rates rising and inflation and everything seemed to stop. ‘T​​hings seemed to slow down really quickly, like kind of overnight almost, actually,’ he said.”

“Right now, housing markets are a mixed bag throughout Colorado. Although Carbondale continues to see prices and demand rise, places like Denver are softening. ‘It’s almost like everybody’s taken a big breath, which is actually very nice,’ said Erin Bassett, spokesperson for the Glenwood Springs Association of Realtors. ‘I was looking through the data for the whole state, and there’s only a couple of boards that are still holding steady. Our inventory is still down, our prices are still up, whereas in the Denver market, they are starting to see quite a bit more softening.'”

From Market Watch. “Buyers are simply feeling more uncertainty with the possibility of a broader economic recession looming. ‘And the first reaction people have is to just not do anything,’ Jen Holland, a realtor with ERA Key Realty in Massachusetts, told MarketWatch. Part of it is also herd mentality: ‘When everybody went out to look at homes, there were lines out the door at open houses,’ she said. ‘Everybody was like, ‘I’d better go buy a house.’”

The Charlotte Observer in North Carolina. “When we think of a recession and the housing market, the 2008 bust might come to mind. Understandably, potential buyers today may worry that buying during an economic downturn doesn’t make sense. During a recession, however, home prices usually decrease as demand slows. This opens up the possibility of buying a home at a more affordable price than we’ve seen during the past two years. ‘We’re seeing some of this right now,’ says Thomas Parrish, head of retail lending product management at BMO Harris Bank. ‘You’re starting to see home prices start to moderate in some markets.'”

The Mankato Free Press. “Statewide, closed sales were down 19% in July compared to July 2021, according to the latest report from Minnesota Realtors. While high-end homes were selling well last year and early this year, that market has cooled. ‘If you’re in the $700,000 and up, it’s definitely a little quiet now,’ said Jen True, owner of True Real Estate in Mankato.”

The Atlanta Business Chronicle in Georgia. “Just a few months ago, home sellers in metro Atlanta were in complete control. That’s not the case anymore. As housing supply plummeted to a record low level over the course of 2021 and early 2022, most listings attracted bidding wars that resulted in sales prices as high as 20% above asking. Some sellers who are listing their homes now are finding a new reality in the housing market.”

“‘Buyers, more than ever, want to see inspirational pricing,’ said Rob Smith, a broker with Keller Williams. ‘They’re completely ignoring anything that’s overpriced. Quick adjustments are the name of the game. Anybody who has their home on the market longer than three weeks, that’s like six months 10 years ago. That is going to be the kiss of death time on market. We’re still going to sell houses,’ Smith said. ‘We’re just going to see a lot of price reductions.'”

From Realtor.com. “‘Last year’s compressed home sale timelines are lengthening,’ notes Realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale. ‘For a third week in a row, homes are sitting on the market for a longer time than last year, and the gap has increased each week.’ This new breather not only offers homebuyers more time, but also paves the way to a less frantic home-shopping mindset overall. ‘As both buyers and sellers adjust to the rebalancing market, expectations shift, reducing the sense of urgency in the market and reinforcing the trend toward longer sale timelines,’ Hale explains.”

“In other words, listings may linger even longer once homebuyers start kicking back and thinking, ‘What’s the rush?'”

From Candy’s Dirt in Texas. “So with declining sales and more homes on the market, it should be easier for buyers to snag their dream house, right? It’s true that the Dallas-Fort Worth region has seen a trend toward ‘price improvements,’ with 3,824 listings posting price reductions in the past seven days.”

The Herald Tribune in Florida. “If you only paid attention to news headlines, you would be convinced that the real estate market is in a free fall. Citing sensational statistics like ‘Pending home sales crash 30%’ or ‘Record number of price reductions’ may lead one to think that home prices are falling and the pendulum has shifted into the hands of buyers. Not so fast. It’s important to put these statistics into some perspective to understand what is really happening in our local real estate market throughout Southwest Florida (and most of the United States).”

“With the abrupt change in interest rates from below 3% to around 5%, it felt as though the spigot was turning off. The frantic pace of activity with 20+ offers on an available property seemed to evaporate overnight. While closed sales have fallen in the neighborhood of 20% relative to 2021 (the most active real estate market on record), when compared to 2019, we are in fact almost 20% ahead of the level of ‘normal’ activity from that time period.”

“Gone are the days that a seller can name whatever price they want to sell with only the most favorable terms. Hence, price reductions are at record levels where sellers are coming back to the reality that a home must be competitively priced in order to sell.”

The Red Rock News in Arizona. “The city of Sedona is launching a program where the city will pay short-term rental property owners from a fund of up to $240,000 to ‘convert’ short-term rentals to long-term rentals for residents, and giving those owners incentives to keep the rentals on the market for at least two years. If it sounds like a bribe or a ransom payment, well, it is.”

“Now with the market beginning to drop, and short-term rental prices seemingly on the verge of collapse — with some rentals charging half what they did three years ago despite the cost of inflation — the city of Sedona is incentivizing these owners to convert their properties back into long-term rentals, which many might do anyway based solely on the flailing market.”

“Let’s be clear — short-term rentals are not housing options, they are risky hotel investments and should face the same reward-loss calculation as any invest­ment. They should not be ‘all reward.’ If these risky investment properties are no longer profitable, can’t pay off loans and go into foreclosure, that’s the market speaking.”

From Siliconvalley.com. “Hotel buying activity cooled off in Northern California, including in the Bay Area, during the first six months of 2022, a slump that might worsen during the rest of this year, an unsettling new report says. During the first six months of 2022, the dollar volume for purchases of Northern California hotels totaled slightly less than $1.03 billion, which represented a plunge of 63.4% from the $2.8 billion in hotel deals during the first half of 2021, according to Atlas Hospitality Group.”

“Another specter that has begun to haunt the hotel sector is the increasingly wobbly and uncertain economy in the Bay Area, California and nationwide. ‘Lenders and buyers are looking at a potential slowdown in the economy and a potential recession,’ said Alan Reay, president of Atlas Hospitality. ‘That makes lenders nervous. It makes buyers nervous. Lenders are pulling back from making loans on hotels.'”

“Weaknesses also have emerged in San Francisco, according to Reay. ‘There is definitely a shift going on in San Francisco, with large declines in the value of some hotels,’ Reay said. He pointed to the June 2022 purchase of The Marker Hotel for $77 million, which Reay said was bought in 2018 for $104 million — a 26% decline in value. Reay also said another large hotel in San Francisco is in escrow for a 30% price discount from its prior purchase.”

“‘Conventions have a lot of options such as Las Vegas,’ Reay said. ‘They don’t have to be in San Francisco. People see San Francisco as having a big crime problem and issues with homelessness.'”

From Kelowna Now in Canada. “Back in March 2021, when house buying in Kelowna was at its most frenzied zenith, 99.8% of the homes listed for sale sold. Last month, for single-family homes that number was 11%. That’s one dizzying plunge. When the percentage of listings sold dips below 15% it officially becomes a ‘buyers’ market.’ What that means is potential buyers have the upper hand to take their time and look around and negotiate a lower price on almost any home.”

“‘There seems to be a sense that buyers feel like it’s finally their turn,’ said ReMax Kelowna realtor Colin Krieg. ‘They can have the typical conditions of financing and home inspection without fear of losing the property, and, as a result, they’re writing more aggressive offers.'”

“For example, a single-family home listed at $1,100,000 could very well get a 7% less offer of $1,023,000 or $77,000 off. Negotiations start and the buyer may end up getting the house for $1,067,000 or $33,000 less than asking price. That $1,067,000 is just a little more than the benchmark selling price of a typical single-family home in Kelowna of $1,060,000 in July. That’s down from the record-high benchmark in April of $1,132,000.”

“Krieg has never seen a real estate market come to such a ‘screeching halt.’ ‘It’s always surprising when the market turns,’ said Krieg. ‘History tells us there will always be ups and downs, but this slowdown is unbelievable. The government wanted to shock and awe us with higher interest rates and they’ve certainly done it.’ Krieg is referring to sales volumes, which have slashed to half of what they were in July 2021.”

Newshub New Zealand. “The property market has been savaged with $100,000 trimmed off Auckland property prices since March, according to the latest Trade Me data. The price plummet is being linked to a supply boom. Average asking prices for properties across the country have dropped by 6 percent, or $61,000, since March. Auckland has seen the largest plunge – the average asking price is down $100,000 followed by Wellington with an $82,000 fall. Prices in Gisborne, Bay of Plenty and Hawke’s Bay are all down by at least $51,000.”

“Trade Me’s Gavin Lloyd says the price drops come down to a supply rush. ‘The month of July, 53 percent more listings on site than there was 12 months ago on Trade Me Property,’ he told Newshub. ‘Interest rates are a lot higher than they were 12 months ago, the cost of living is having a massive impact on people’s purchasing power at the moment, lending criteria is also a lot harder than it was 12 months ago.'”

From ABC Business. “Farheen Khan and her husband Faizan Afzal are about to achieve the great Australian dream — buying a home where their children can grow up, with nearby parks and a good school. The young family bought land in an estate in Perth’s south in 2020, when the federal and WA governments offered big incentives to people wanting to build a new home. But COVID caused major shortages in construction materials and the industry has also been grappling with a labour shortage in a low unemployment market. It has seen the timeline for a lot of new construction projects blow out.”

“Mr Afzal estimates they are sacrificing 70 per cent of their income on housing right now. ‘It’s been very, very tough,’ Mr Afzal said. ‘We are paying the mortgage, we’re paying the rent, plus the bills for both properties.'”

“It is a familiar story for nurse Steryn Wheeler. She was told a build would take six to eight months. A year and a half after signing the contract, she and her partner have had to move in with her parents amid a rental crisis while they wait for their home to be finished. She is anxious about rates going up even further.”

“‘You just get really nervous … especially being in my mid-20s, you know, the future of like, are we going to have children?’ she said. ‘We can’t really do that with these sort of price increases.’ Ms Wheeler now regrets locking herself into building a home, and she knows many other young people in the same boat who bought during the pandemic. ‘I think we got so caught up in wanting to have the grants and to be independent and have an adult lifestyle that we kind of forgot what at our core, we really wanted in our 20s,’ she said. ‘We don’t have anywhere to go from here. We’re stuck with these houses and these huge interest rates.'”

“Digital Finance Analytics principal analyst Martin North said many first time buyers got into the market to take advantage of the government’s home-builder incentives. But those incentives also helped drive up prices. ‘They tended to have bought with very large mortgages they bought at the top of the market, and now there’s a pincer movement going on,’ Mr North said. ‘Rates are going up, mortgage rates are going up, prices are beginning to slide back. And a lot of them are actually [now] in financial flow difficulty.'”

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This Post Has 114 Comments

  1. ‘When everybody went out to look at homes, there were lines out the door at open houses,’ she said. ‘Everybody was like, ‘I’d better go buy a house’

    Jen, meet Steryn:

    ‘Ms Wheeler now regrets locking herself into building a home, and she knows many other young people in the same boat…‘We don’t have anywhere to go from here. We’re stuck with these houses and these huge interest rates’

    Yep a respiratory illness made me buy a shack. The further we get from that horsesh$t the more ridiculous it is.

  2. ‘with the market beginning to drop, and short-term rental prices seemingly on the verge of collapse — with some rentals charging half what they did three years ago despite the cost of inflation’

    Every fresh hell from the last bust will be revisited apparently. Haven’t we seen this movie Sedona? Good luck with those $600,000 trailers.

    1. ‘with the market beginning to drop, and short-term rental prices seemingly on the verge of collapse — with some rentals charging half what they did three years ago despite the cost of inflation’

      – Short-term rentals (STRs) are illegal based on zoning laws, and a plague in many vay-cay destinations. STRs remove housing from the for sale and rental market. This decreases supply and raises prices and rents. Duh! Hotels and motels are zoned outside of residential neighborhoods and for good reason. The cost and tax structures are different. Corrupt local governments allowed this. They, and the AirBnB’s and VRBO’s of the world could never have existed w/o complicit local governments. Enforce residential zoning laws and this whole sh#t-show goes away. I personally boycott STR housing and those that allow it/promote it are scum, IMHO. STRs wouldn’t “pencil out” if the true cost of the SFH rental was imposed on the owners. Scam alert. Starve the beast. Housing is shelter, not a speculative investment. We all may soon re-learn that lesson, but maybe not, since no one seems to learn from history.

      1. 100% agree. STR’s are a scam. They get to break the law and you don’t. Undermines respect for the law and you end up where we are now with no laws which is not a good place to be. Uber/lyft are the same scam.

      2. – Another “plus” (+) category attribute of staying overnight in an STR. It’s a feature, not a bug. No telling where those videos end up either… Once on the internet, always on the internet.

        https://twitter.com/OGtexasrunner/status/1561718670073659394?cxt=HHwWhICwjeW2q6wrAAAA
        Texas Runner, Bubtwit 👸 @OGtexasrunner

        Vacation in a stranger’s nasty vacant residence in exchange for $300 a night, your privacy, and your dignity.

        What could go wrong?

        #Airbnb #Airbnbubble

        https://www.tmz.com/2022/07/06/airbnb-guests-sue-host-over-hidden-cameras-invasion-privacy/
        Airbnb Guests Sue Host Over Hidden Cams You Recorded Us Banging!!!
        7/6/2022 10:32 AM PT

        “Hidden cameras in Airbnbs is a hot-button issue lately, but apparently, they’re nothing new — at least according to two renters, who say they were illegally taped by their host.”

        “A couple is suing the host of an Airbnb rental property in Maine, claiming the guy installed a secret recording device in the main bedroom of an apartment they stayed in back in 2020 … which they worry was rolling during hanky-panky!”

      3. If they are illegal based on already existing zoning laws, then why are dozens of cities trying to pass new laws to ban them, if they’re already illegal per se?

        “Housing is shelter, not a speculative investment.”

        Did you mean to say “Housing is a human right”, comrade?

        1. “Housing is shelter, not a speculative investment.”

          “Did you mean to say “Housing is a human right”, comrade?”

          – I’m definitely pro free markets and anti-Socialism/Communism (is there a difference?).
          – It’s well know that STRs negatively impact on the communities they are sited in. This is intuitively obvious to the most casual observer.
          – Independent of the housing shortage aspect, there are parties, gunshots, fights, and other disturbances at all hours. Right next door to some homeowner in a neighborhood that’s zoned for families and quiet living, who didn’t sign up to live next to a motel without a manager or oversight. “Disturbing the peace” comes to mind, at a bare minimum. Think “Frat party” as your next door neighbor.
          – This is well documented. There’s a LOT of push-back against STRs and it’s growing. Residential zoning isn’t commercial, hotel, or industrial for a reason.

          https://residentsunitedforneighbors.org/uncovering-the-negative-effects-of-strs-on-communities/

          Uncovering the Negative Effects of STRs on Communities
          June 3, 2021

          “The short-term rental (STR) industry continues to broadcast a narrative that would have us believe that STRs greatly benefit communities. They champion increased tax revenue, job creation, and diversity of accommodations for travel destinations. However, this point-of-view doesn’t tell the entire story and completely ignores the negative effects of STRs.”

          “An excellent research article, written by Kirvil Skinnarland, MS, MBA, and Brian Patterson, Ph.D. (both members of the R.U.N. Board), clearly exposes the downside of STRs and debunks the positive spin touted by absentee owners, prospective buyers, and proponents of STRs—all of whom stand to gain more from STRs than the communities they target.”

          “Below is a summary of the article, but we encourage you to read the whitepaper, How Short-Term Rentals In Residential Areas Harm Communities, in its entirety, to get all the details, stats, and facts.”

          “Loss of Social Capital
          Increase in Congestion
          The Economic Benefits Don’t Add Up”

          https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/23/unwelcome-guests-airbnb-cities-battle-over-illegal-short-term-rentals.html

          Unwelcome guests: Airbnb, cities battle over illegal short-term rentals
          Published Thu, May 24 20187:00 AM EDTUpdated Thu, May 24 20187:00 AM EDT
          Scott Zamost @scottzamost
          Hannah Kliot | Morgan Brennan @MorganLBrennan | Samantha Kummerer | Lora Kolodny@lorakolodny

          “From Miami Beach to Los Angeles, local laws vary widely, but complaints about quality-of-life issues caused by illegal short-term rentals are similar, according to public records and dozens of interviews with city officials, residents, analysts and others connected to the home-sharing industry. For years, LA has battled illegal party houses in mega-mansions. Other cities like New York have stepped up enforcement. Boston is pushing back against properties being rented out as commercial operations.”

          ““You can’t throw a rock in the country right now without hitting a city that’s moving to more aggressively regulate short-term rentals,” said David Wachsmuth, an assistant professor at McGill University’s School of Urban Planning, who has studied Airbnb around the world.”

          “We’re seeing commercialized, predatory companies that are trying to commercialize our residential communities in ways that are damaging to our citizens and our residents and our quality of life,” Gelber told CNBC. “It is predatory.”

          “The easiest way to stop all of this is if the home-sharing platforms simply didn’t send people into these neighborhoods,” Gelber said. “It’s just that simple. They’re the ones who do it and they claim they have no responsibility because, ‘oh, we’re just an internet platform.’ But they’re not.“

        2. It varies by city. In my experience with Encinitas, it had regulations on the books but didn’t have the manpower to enforce them. I suspect the city of San Diego is tightening already existing laws.

          1. They have plenty of manpower to enforce regulations (not laws) against people not wearing masks while swimming in the ocean

        3. This is such a silly response. Housing is not a free market, if it was then people could build anything they want any time they want. Zoning exists for a reason and it is not communist to suggest it should be enforced if that is what the local majority desires. Perhaps you would prefer anarchy? Are you one of those antifa types that want a free autonomous zone? How far do you want to take it?

          1. P.S. My comment was specifically to DRR44 who said “Did you mean to say “Housing is a human right”, comrade?” implying that anyone who is against STR’s is a free market hating communist. That type of strawman argument is tiresome and is the kind of dishonesty you would expect from someone who thinks AirBNB is a good business model.

          2. You have a reading comprehension problem. Where did I say there shouldn’t be zoning laws? I asked why cities need to pass NEW laws to ban STRs if STRs violate existing zoning laws, which is what the poster who wants more government intervention was claiming. Is that too hard for you to follow?

        4. Dwr44 it sounds like you are the one who is confused, on the one hand you are chastising someone for wanting more ‘government intervention’ but now you are claiming that you are a champion of zoning laws?? Make up your mind. You were very clear in your gist when you implied that disagreement equated to being a communist. You knew exactly what you were trying to say and so did everyone else. It is tedious and trite. People tend to introduce strawman arguments like that when they don’t have a valid argument to begin with. Sad!

  3. ‘He pointed to the June 2022 purchase of The Marker Hotel for $77 million, which Reay said was bought in 2018 for $104 million — a 26% decline in value. Reay also said another large hotel in San Francisco is in escrow for a 30% price discount from its prior purchase’

    How do those 4% cap rates look now?

    1. ‘He pointed to the June 2022 purchase of The Marker Hotel for $77 million, which Reay said was bought in 2018 for $104 million — a 26% decline in value. Reay also said another large hotel in San Francisco is in escrow for a 30% price discount from its prior purchase’

      – CRE and Hotels in general, and esp. in those in Socialist “utopian” cities are in serious trouble. Post-pandemic WFH and a purposeful shredding of the social fabric by the Marxist in power there are to blame. How’s that “Defund the Police” meme working out for ya?

      I’ve been to SF, CA in better times, prior to the Socialist government-induced collapse into a third-world sh#thole. I would never visit there now, and will avoid any similar blue state/blue city crime-ridden cesspit. After all, who wants to travel to or vacation in a third-world sh#thole with threat of assault or death due to any number of reasons? How can anyone who (still) lives there vote for the criminals running (ruining) the local government?

      “The government you elect is the government you deserve.” – Thomas Jefferson

      “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.” – H L Mencken

      “Toute nation a le gouvernement qu’elle mérite.” (Every country has the government it deserves.) Lettres et Opuscules Inédits (1851) (letter of August 15, 1811). – Joseph de Maistre

      “Socialism is Western Civilization in retrograde.” – I said that. Prove me wrong.

  4. ‘Quick adjustments are the name of the game. Anybody who has their home on the market longer than three weeks, that’s like six months 10 years ago. That is going to be the kiss of death time on market’

    Again, the 6 month inventory thing is ancient history. Talking to you Larry.

  5. ‘I was looking through the data for the whole state, and there’s only a couple of boards that are still holding steady’

    How the mighty have fallen.

  6. ‘Dallas-Fort Worth region has seen a trend toward ‘price improvements,’ with 3,824 listings posting price reductions in the past seven days’

    Somebody figure how many this is per day. But it’s a sellers market!

  7. ‘The government wanted to shock and awe us with higher interest rates and they’ve certainly done it.’ Krieg is referring to sales volumes, which have slashed to half of what they were in July 2021′

    Are you sayin’ they broke it of in yer a$$ Colin?

      1. The lumber future chart is interesting — the only buyers now are the guys hedging. Also, it’s the same price it was almost exactly a year ago.

        I don’t pay finviz’s premium, so can’t get a multi-year spread on these futures, but my guess is the “temporary” shortage created by supply chain and employment problems the government caused with its bungled covid reaction is over.

        In other words, a lower trading range for lumber will last awhile, particularly if housing slows substantially. Lumber remains cheap.

  9. “Mr Afzal estimates they are sacrificing 70 per cent of their income on housing right now.
    This is truly funny and yet so sad at the same time.

    1. “…sacrificing 70 per cent of their income…”

      Key operative word: sacrifice

      Look at the bright side, Mr Afzal, is not 100% (or more).

      Mr. Banker dream client.

    1. Last week I told a liberal about the sucker punch from the career criminal rapist parolee who was let go without bail after cracking the guys skull last week and she told me it was right wing spin.

      1. I was told by a Hungarian relative that there are still a non trivial number of people in Hungary who would welcome the return of communism.

        Ideology is a powerful thing.

          1. Where would they go? Cuba? NorKo? Would either accept pinko Hungarians?

            Anyway, my point, which I should have elaborated: Hungary suffered immensely under the Soviets and a supermajority were thrilled when communism ended. Yet, somehow, a sizeable minority miss communism, even though the tide literally lifted all the boats.

          2. Are the Hungarians who would welcome communism again the ones who previously lived under it? It’s the younger generation(s) buying communism’s lies.

          3. Are the Hungarians who would welcome communism again the ones who previously lived under it?

            From what I have heard, it’s mostly olds who didn’t adapt to free market competition. They miss their cushy, if low paying, government jobs.

            The VAT in in Hungary is 27%, last I heard.

          1. Free market competition is a frightening prospect.
            It truly is and for the people who think/thought they are/were “smarter” than everyone else but end up being broke a$$ losers, it must be terrible/impossible for them to admit they are either Dumb as “F” or lazy as “He$$.” I know a couple of guys like that. They still use SAT words with 3-4 for syllables, that I don’t know half the time, to try and feel “superior.
            I could give a rats A$$.

          1. “Bronx sucker-punch suspect released without bail”

            The “suits-n-ties” serving in NYC’s Administration of Justice system make more money than the average Joe, yet they can’t seem to hold a violent career felon behind bars.

        2. Hi RPRH,
          A very reasonable suggestion.
          Personally, I have found it a waste of time to argue with MFM (Mass Formation Moron) leftists.
          –Geezer

  14. Had an interesting conversation with the neighbors on Saturday. (she’s a realtor/UHS). We were talking about some insanely priced homes that we laughed and then she said “it’s because there are only 35 homes for sale in the whole valley”

    Wut? There are 33 homes for sale in our little town, there’s 86 single family homes for sale in the valley, there haven’t been only 35 homes for sale since March. (there was high 60’s in July when I started writing it down).

    She seems shocked, she says “well that includes condo’s and FSBO’s”

    Nope, I replied, i don’t watch condos (ick) and FSBO’s are another 20 plus homes (because no one really buys overpriced FSBO’s). That’s a 100 plus homes for sale in the valley.

    They really believe their own BS. The numbers are out there for anyone to see. I don’t think she likes me much anymore.

    1. “They really believe their own BS. The numbers are out there for anyone to see. I don’t think she likes me much anymore.”

      “The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those who speak it.” – George Orwell

      “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” – George Orwell

      “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” – Upton Sinclair

      “Common sense is not so common.” – Voltaire

      “The euphoric episode is protected and sustained by the will of those who are involved, in order to justify the circumstances that are making them rich. And it is equally protected by the will to ignore, exorcise, or condemn those who express doubts.” – John Kenneth Galbraith, A Short History of Financial Euphoria

    2. “Had an interesting conversation with the neighbors on Saturday. (she’s a realtor/UHS).”

      Did you appropriately state, “Realtors are liars”?

      Toluca Lake, CA Housing Prices Crater 27% YOY As For Sale Housing Inventory Reaches 12 Year High

      https://www.movoto.com/toluca-lake-ca/market-trends/

      As one desperate SoCal seller lamented, “I shouldn’t have ever bought this house. It’s riddled with defects…. and so is the mortgage contract.”

  15. A reader sent these in:

    Great chart from @SteveSaretsky on the falls in Canadian housing prices. Fascinatingly both Canada and New Zealand have experienced similar price falls nationally so far. The big question from here is at what point do price falls become self sustaining and confidence is shot.

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1561175697707569153

    It’s funny, if property prices rise ~80% in 3 years cue the crickets. If property prices start falling significantly, we hear how it’s all so horrible.

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1561587355743531008

    Rented out my place on Air BnB for the 1st time EVER and it got DESTROYED. What a abomination. Looks like someone was murdered in here 😭 that’s Blood!! Police are aware, apparently the renter got stabbed 😭

    https://twitter.com/Tyler929394/status/1408443642013007873

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    Phoenix is arguably a red herring market as it’s on leading edge of recovery & recession. That doesn’t reflect the nation as a whole, to be sure, but it’s indicative of DIRECTION housing is headed nationwide

    Pay attention to SPEED. What took 14 months in 2005 took 4 months today

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1561410902498414593

    Random venting: The residential real estate market is so strange right now. I’ll make an offer at 85% – 90% of asking price, the seller’s agent will act offended, not counter, then two weeks later reduce the price of the house (again) and host another open house.

    https://twitter.com/StIroningShirts/status/1560964514975166464

    Used car prices now in free fall – down almost 4% in the first half of August. Goldman sees negative y/y price growth.

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1561368984473243651

    1. Home buyers are nowhere in sight because there are none. #Pop

      https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1561512858038534145

      Danielle DiMartino Booth

      The Fed’s roll-down is going exactly to plan as they publicly stated it would in May. All of these conspiracies are comically sad given how painful full-throttle QT will be come that last Treasury maturity September 30th that gets the run rate up to $60 billion for the month.

      https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1561412977722523651

      1. “All of these conspiracies are comically sad given how painful full-throttle QT will be come that last Treasury maturity September 30th that gets the run rate up to $60 billion for the month.”

        Can anyone who posts here unpack that sentence?

          1. I just saw the NASDAQ was down 2.53% so far today. If it continued this rate of decline for just 30 days, the drop would be 1-(1-0.0253)^30 = 53.6% down.

          2. If it continued

            Exactly. That could scare the crap out of you.

            What’s the probability that extrapolating one data point will be a good prediction?

            30 days? The market only happens something like 21 days a month

        2. She’s replying to:

          Fed didn’t reach their ~50b monthly rolloff since june, will they achieve their cap from September?

          Double it. They have little credibility left, market see thru them. @federalreserve

    2. “The residential real estate market is so strange right now. I’ll make an offer at 85% – 90% of asking price, the seller’s agent will act offended, not counter, then two weeks later reduce the price of the house (again) and host another open house.”

      Means you’re trying to catch a knife. Sit back and let ’em ride this thing down.

  16. Is it safe to assume that inflation is fully under control, the central bankers’ rate hike campaign is over, and clear blue skies await Wall Street’s bull herd?

    1. The Financial Times
      UK inflation
      UK inflation to hit 18.6% next year according to Citi
      Investment bank raises forecast as wholesale gas prices soar
      An electricity transmission tower near residential houses with lights on in the UK
      Citigroup predicts that the retail energy price cap will rise to £4,567 in January and then to £5,816 in April, compared with the current level of £1,971 a year
      Chris Giles in London 5 hours ago

      UK inflation is on course to hit 18.6 per cent in January — the highest peak in almost half a century — because of soaring wholesale gas prices, according to a new forecast from Citigroup based on the latest market prices.

      The investment bank predicted that the country’s retail energy price cap — which limits how much households pay for heating and electricity — would be raised to £4,567 in January and then £5,816 in April, compared with the current level of £1,971 a year. It added that the shifts would lead to inflation “entering the stratosphere”.

      “We now expect CPI inflation to peak at over 18 per cent in January,” said Benjamin Nabarro, chief UK economist at Citi. That would be higher than the peak of inflation after the second Opec oil shock of 1979 when CPI reached 17.8 per cent, according to estimates from the Office for National Statistics.
      …

      1. crap on a stick.

        Great Britian has gone from owning a world wide empire to a 3rd world banana republic with 20% inflation. If only they could be like one of their African colonies in the 60’s with reasonable prices and policing.

      2. would be raised to £4,567 in January and then £5,816 in April

        My UK relatives tell me that people are panicking over this. Of course, those same people supported their gooberment’s “green energy” policies and laughed when they were told them this
        would happen.

    2. The Financial Times
      Markets Briefing Equities
      Global stocks drop on recession and central bank rate-rise worries
      US and European equities slide ahead of this week’s Jackson Hole economic summit
      The New York Stock Exchange
      Wall Street’s broad S&P 500 dropped 1.2% at the New York opening bell, after snapping a four-week winning streak on Friday
      Ian Johnston 18 minutes ago

      US and European stocks slid on Monday as the outlook for large global economies darkened and investors braced themselves for a central bank summit.

      Wall Street’s broad S&P 500 dropped 1.2 per cent at the New York opening bell, after snapping a four-week winning streak on Friday. The technology-focused Nasdaq Composite gauge fell 1.5 per cent. In Europe, the regional Stoxx 600 lost 1 per cent, with Germany’s Dax tumbling 2 per cent.

      Monday had started on a bearish note as a fresh surge in European gas and power prices added to fears that the region could slip into recession.

      The growing sense of economic gloom comes ahead of the Federal Reserve’s annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which the central bank often uses to make big policy announcements. Fed chief Jay Powell is expected to signal the central bank will continue to aggressively increase interest rates as it battles elevated inflation.

      “I wouldn’t bank on Powell giving a strong signal at Jackson Hole that he’s ready to change direction on inflation,” said Joost van Leenders, senior investment strategist at Van Lanschot Kempen. “[He’ll] justify why they are raising rates so fast and why they have to.”
      …

      1. Though the Wall Street bull herd is banking on the bear market ending this summer, history shows that the bottom of a crash that follows years of irrational exuberance can take well over a year to be reached.

        We’ll see if this time is different.

    4. Updated Mon, Aug 22 2022 11:53 AM EDT
      Dow drops 400 points to start the week as Wall Street summer rally wanes
      Sarah Min
      Markets are headed for a period of choppiness, says Sand Hill Global CIO

      U.S. stocks fell Monday as the Wall Street summer rally waned and fears of aggressive interest rate hikes returned to Wall Street.

      The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 441 points, or by 1.31%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.59% and 1.99%, respectively.

      Investors are anticipating what could be a volatile week of trading ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s latest comments on inflation at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole economic symposium.

      “When you see the market right now dropping down like this, this is the market saying the Fed has to be more aggressive to slow the economy down further” if they want to bring inflation back down, said Robert Cantwell, portfolio manager at Upholdings.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/21/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

    5. Is it safe to assume that inflation is fully under way, cant have all these workers quietly quitting .

  17. China’s property market is ‘imploding’
    Sky News Australia
    Aug 22, 2022 China’s property market is “imploding”, Judo Bank Economic Advisor Warren Hogan says.

    China recently announced it would be cutting its key interest rates at a time when most of the world is lifting theirs in response to growing inflation.

    “It’s a very complex web of financial interactions,” Mr Hogan told Sky News Business Editor Ross Greenwood.

    “Developers are in trouble; financiers are in trouble and of course what I think … worries for the government is there is a lot of savings wrapped up in that market so they are trying to really take some pressure off that property market and of course take some pressure off the broader economy.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ib9e7Fe0sE

    3:29.

    2. The Financial Times
      Country Garden Holdings Co Ltd
      China’s largest property group Country Garden warns of 70% plunge in profit
      Plight highlights ‘humongous moral hazard’ for Beijing from cash-strapped developers
      Unfinished apartment buildings in January at the Phoenix City residential project in Shanghai, developed by Country Garden
      Gary Jones in Hong Kong and Edward White in Seoul August 17 2022

      Chinese property developer Country Garden estimated that first-half profits fell as much as 70 per cent in the first half of the year, as the country’s largest real estate group by sales was drawn into a crisis that has raged through the heavily indebted sector.

      The company, in a filing on Thursday, said core profit was between about Rmb4.5bn and Rmb5bn ($6634mn and $736mn) in the first six months of 2022, down from Rmb15.2bn a year earlier.

      Country Garden, which lost its last investment-grade rating after Fitch downgraded it to junk status on Tuesday, cited a market downturn, the effects of the coronavirus pandemic and foreign exchange losses for the fall in earnings. Unlike a growing number of its highly leveraged peers, Country Garden has not defaulted on its debts.

      The Chinese property sector has been rattled by a liquidity crisis following last year’s high-profile collapse of Evergrande, the world’s most-indebted developer.

      Country Garden had managed to retain access to offshore bond markets for refinancing, helping the group maintain some stability at a time when tens of thousands of Chinese homebuyers are refusing to pay mortgages on unfinished apartments.

      However, as Beijing has sought to revive the sector with refinancing loans, there are signs that confidence in Country Garden is receding.

      The company’s Hong Kong-listed shares slumped as much as 15 per cent during a single trading session in July, wiping about $1.7bn from its market value, after it announced a heavily discounted capital raising.

      Alicia García Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at French investment bank Natixis, said Country Garden was suffering from worsening investor sentiment towards the sector. There are fears of falling prices as demand wanes and new apartments remain uncompleted, with cash-strapped developers running out of money.

      “Now even Country Garden couldn’t basically proceed with presales for new projects because the contagion is so extreme,” she said.
      …

    3. “Aug 22, 2022 China’s property market is “imploding”, Judo Bank Economic Advisor Warren Hogan says.”

      – A lesson from the West to the Middle Kingdom: Asset bubbles (housing in this case) always burst. It doesn’t matter if in Australia, Canada, U.S., or CCP China.
      – Uh, Oh! China’s 20th Party Congress is coming up in Oct./Nov., ’22 time frame. Message from China’s CCP Congress to Xi Jinping: “No third term for you!,” the anonymous CCP member said…
      – Paste in my sad panda face here and cue tiny violin. 🙂
      – It seems in this case that copying the global central bank economic model of MMT spend and print was a trojan horse financial virus. Seems like just desserts to me.
      – Ghost cities with millions of empty housing units. No one could have seen this coming.

    4. The Chinese govt has to get the realestate market up and going again. They have no choice but to pump it up.

      Most importantly, it is (WAS?) the major source of investment for middle class citizenry – and there could be major control issues of the population.

      Secondly, real estate sales to developers is (WAS?) a major source of income for the municipalities.


      Chinese municipalities often sell land to condominium developers. Local authorities also collect five other taxes relating to real estate, including one for using urban land. Revenue from the five taxes quadrupled over the decade through 2019 and expanded to 25% of local government receipts. Figures have yet to be disclosed for 2020.
      …
      A lack of land revenue could have an impact on debt repayment by local governments, which fund infrastructure projects by issuing so-called special bonds. Money from real estate sales make up 90% of the pool used to repay the bonds. Local governments sold 3.75 trillion yuan of special bonds last year, up 1.6 trillion yuan from a year earlier.

      Infrastructure investment is driving China’s economic recovery from the coronavirus, and this increased investment only raises the pressure for governments to repay the debt.

      “If land transactions are underperforming, it will affect the debt management at local governments,” said Yan Yuejin at the E-house China R&D Institute, a real estate think tank, indicating risk to future infrastructure investment.

      1. ‘no choice but to pump it up’

        I’ve been watching this sh$t show for many years, and lots of people lend the CCP powers they don’t have. Theoretically, if any country could make their real estate a perpetual money machine, they would be forever prosperous and eliminate poverty. No country ever has or will eliminate poverty. China can’t even keep their air and water clean.

        So one must accept that failure is possible. Perhaps it is right now. But under the current dictator, it appears the CCP is purposefully destroying the economy. Not just real estate, but the tech companies, education system, the list goes on. Take the unbelievable CCP virus lockdowns. They haven’t ended. They are committing some of the worst atrocities since the CCP virus started and that’s saying a lot. Why? We all know this virus is a joke, over and nothing to fear. They do too. So why punish tens of millions of people?

        Pooh bear has said some things recently about returning to communism. We’ll have to see where this goes, but his actions suggest that they are abandoning the bubble model entirely. The most glaring is how they schlonged the off shore bond holders. That’s burning yer bridges stuff.

          1. Probably Uncle Sam’s Cayman Islands account. Or maybe they will get Tether to buy some. I’m sure it will be fine.

  18. A house I’ve been watching:

    8/22/2022 Price change $349,900 (-1.4%) $166/sqft

    8/22/2022 Listed for sale $355,000 $168/sqft

    8/13/2022 Pending sale $355,000 $168/sqft

    7/19/2022 Price change $355,000 (-2.7%) $168/sqft

    6/17/2022 Price change $365,000 (-2.7%) $173/sqft

    5/26/2022 Price change $375,000 (-2.6%) $178/sqft

    4/29/2022 Listed for sale $385,000 (+234.8%) $182/sqft

    8/20/2012 Listing removed $1,400

    8/1/2012 Listed for rent $1,400

    4/19/2001 Sold $115,000 $54/sqft

  19. $2,500 / 10ft2 – Hot, Dusty Hole In The Desert- $2500/day (Taos)

    Are you a rich boomer wanting to get away to your own beautiful mountain retreat where you can pretend like the world and it’s problems don’t really exist? Are you willing to sacrifice everything to live amongst an unfriendly and clannish group of arrogant, rich white people with horrible social skills in a hot, dusty and inhospitable place? Taos might be for you! Are you passionate about tired 1990’s southwestern motifs and a completely pilfered phony native aesthetic? Are you wanting to help further alienate the native and poorer populations, to kick them from their ancestral homes into further poverty and ruin and completely gentrify and corporatize this once proud and noble place? Well alright! You’ll fit right in in Taos! Come rent this hot, dusty shithole in the middle of the sun baked southwestern desert during an apocalyptic climate event where all aquifers in the area are about to dry up completely. Who needs water when you’ve got a cellar full of expensive wine from Medley? This dusty, hot, dry hole in the desert is 10 sq. Ft., and a STEAL at only $2500/day!

    https://santafe.craigslist.org/apa/d/taos-ski-valley-hot-dusty-hole-in-the/7521722564.html

  20. ‘Obsessed with doom’: Greta Thunberg has ‘gone bust’
    Sky News Australia
    Aug 22, 2022 Sky News host Andrew Bolt says the Greta Thunberg cult has “gone bust”.

    “A mere child, full of rage, obsessed with doom, totally devoid of any practical solutions – but here she was lecturing the world on how to fuel their 21st century economies,” Mr Bolt said. “Thunberg is now a victim of her own success in scaring people into doing very, very stupid things that we’re now paying for.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHZym4QG7UQ

    6:38.

      2. What is truly scary is how many people believed her tripe.
        I know and no one ever asked her if she had a degree in or had even taken classes in: Thermodynamics, Geology or Glaciology or “choose a science.” No one.

  21. Authentic & original lower ground loft space untouched since the 1970’s, located on arguably downtowns best block; this one (1) bedroom, one (1) bathroom is offered at a truly outstanding price.

    Direct private access from Prince Street & ceiling heights close to 9 feet, this generously sized property could service a variety of needs, including it’s current use; laid out with a bedroom at the homes southern entrance & leading through to an open kitchen, with substantial living and dining in the rear. Access to the buildings common courtyard culminates an efficient use of space, with industrial features.

    Surrounded by the cosmopolitan denizens, restaurants & shopping that define Soho as the World class neighborhood it is, this property also has the advantage of being central to a variety of subway lines & public transport.

    As unique as New York, a property like this must be seen to be believed.

    https://www.christopherfountain.com/blog/2022/8/20/when-i-grow-up-i-hope-to-be-corcoran-listing-copywriter

    A comment:

    Which do you think makes it more industrial? The sh#t pipe in the center of the “living room” or the asbestos pipe covering?

  22. The kids at Uvalde were failed by Democrat-Bolshevik officials at every level, to include the cowardly incompetent Sheriff and their school principal who didn’t ensure broken locks on the classroom doors targeted by the gunman were fixed. The psycho who went on the shooting spree threw up numerous red flags that went unheeded by Democrat-Bolsheviks in positions of authority who failed to do their jobs. But now the Comrades of Proven Worth (D) are going to try to drive the gun maker out of business, for something that was not remotely their fault. Does Ford get sued every time some drunk-driving illegal causes a fatal smash-up with his F-150? The Democrats don’t need to annul the 2nd Amendment as long as they can bankrupt gun manufacturers and retailers.

    Families of Uvalde elementary school massacre victims to file $27 billion class action lawsuit against law enforcement and gun manufacturer Daniel Defense

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11134423/Families-Uvalde-massacre-victims-file-27-billion-lawsuit.html

    1. “BANANARAMA new single MASQUERADE is out on Wednesday 15th June 2022.”

      About five to seven years ago I ran into a girl who was a cheerleader at my high school who I hadn’t seen since probably 1982. Now she was just as sweet as she was at twenty but her appearance as did mine had changed a bit in the thirty-five years since we had seen each other.

      Point being although it was great to see her and reminisce I can’t help but think we both would have rather remembered each other at 20 rather than 55.

      Your BANANARAMA video made me remember that.

      1. It will truly be a cruel summer when they realize they can’t each own that castle. I think this video is setting the stage for the next one where one of them murders the other three. When asked why she did it she will say, “I can be who I want to be!” …..and cut!

    1. Dear suckers:

      If you are fortunate enough to not have already suffered a jab related adverse effect, have we got a treat for you: an expedited, untested booster that will protect you (this time we pinky swear!) from the now flabby Omicron variant. Of course, like last time, you will have to sign away your rights to compensation should you die of “suddenly” or are injured by our amazing vaccine, but you know it’s worth it. So, hurry! Supplies are limited.

      1. Mass Formation Psychosis.

        I just drove by a millennial beta male wearing a mask while riding a rental scooter alone in Dumver.

        “They’re not sending their best”

    3. Of course they aren’t telling you the updated new Covid shots were passed by the FDA, with no trials required whatsoever. .
      Ron Johnson , the Senator, in a recent interview on the podcast HIGHWIRE, give a mindb!owing interview on what was going on in DC when the Covid hit.
      Captured government agencies, like FDA, CDC , WHO, NIH, in combo with the power of fake news , basically dictated the response to Covid .
      He in essence said that DC politicians didn’t want to go against the narratives for fear of being attacked by the news.
      He talks about how Fauci and Scarf Lady undermined Trumps attempts to get the life saving cheap meds to be available.
      Ron Johnson started to pull in Doctors to testify that disputed the Covid narratives, who were saving lives by the cheap med protocols. Ron Johnson got no support from his fellow Senators, except maybe Rand Paul who was trying to nail Fauci.
      Than they rigged the election and Biden the shill for Big Pharmacy ran with the narrative .
      Ron Johnson said that DC was disfuctional.
      What kind of representatives do we have that are afraid of the power of the press, or who funds the press. Sounds like the Politicians are just as captured as the health agencies are. Also Johnson brought in injured people from the vaccine, that were being gaslighted. One 12 year old was left paralyzed in the vaccine trial, they lied on the trial and said she just got a stomach ache.

      Anyway its a interesting podcast, about a hour, just put High wire podcast in search engine

    1. 2022 update………….private video studio, high-end AV switcher HD multiple angle cameras microphones, for a professional presentation greenscreen with multiple world virtual backdrops, includes bedroom, living room furniture, and open space to create your own. Separate private entrace perfect for your only fans account. Reasonable daily rates Don’t risk some simp showing up at your front door.

      the detached garage has a room above that was once used as a dance studio

    2. Dr Fauci stepping down from Biden position in December.
      As people start to come out of their stupor, a new face of Science needs to divert to a new distraction.
      But Fauci got the goals done for………

      He got a toxic and dangerous technology fake vaccine on the market under EUA, that they plan on expanding .
      Fauci and Scarf Lady got global useless lockdowns and useless masks.
      They got a fake Pandemic with fake PCR testing.
      They caused the definition of vaccines to change
      They caused safe cheap drugs to be supressed and censored for killer protocols.
      He caused Big Pharmacy to make billions and billions , while he got a piece of the action.
      He fear mongered the public into a toxic fake vaccine, than boosters.
      In collusion with fake news , they supressed and censored thousands of Doctors and Scientist that disputed the Fauci response to Covid.

      So, they are ready to pounce again with a new face of Science.

      1. He also wiggled out of culpability for illegally funding gain of function research over in CCP land.

      2. “Dr Fauci stepping down from Biden position in December.”

        And we’re gifted with the expense of lifelong secret service security detail for him, spouse and offspring.

  26. Barack Obama Hosting Martha’s Vineyard Fundraiser for Eric Holder’s Army of Election Workers

    CHARLIE SPIERING
    22 Aug 2022

    Former President Barack Obama will host a fundraiser for his former Attorney General Eric Holder’s redistricting committee on August 30th, in a major step forward for Democrats in the midterms.

    The fundraiser for Holder’s National Democratic Redistricting Committee will feature a dinner and a discussion about democracy, supporting legal efforts to help Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections, according to Politico’s Playbook. The event will take place at Martha’s Vineyard.

    Holder spoke about his group’s midterm efforts in a recent interview with Sirius/XM host Joe Madison.

    He spoke about a pressing need to draft a group of polling workers in every state to combat Republicans and that his group was focusing on the problem.

    Holder also warned that teams of Republicans working to prevent voter fraud in the midterm election would “muck up the process” and “intimidate people,” which he argued was a “threat” to democracy.

    “The iteration of this Republican Party just ain’t that into democracy,” he said, warning that Republican efforts to secure elections would try to “guarantee themselves a positive result” in future elections.

    https://www.breitbart.com/

    1. “We have to stuff the ballot box to save democracy!” might as well be their motto.

      It is clear that they have no intention of giving up power, the electorate be damned.

      The scary thing is that they are so close to achieving complete totalitarian power that they can taste it. Even if they can’t pull off a fraudulent victory this November, their Deep State is so entrenched that there will be little effect should the R’s take the House and Senate. The whole kit and kaboodle needs to be cleaned out. All the alphabet agencies need to be shut down and everyone fired, and that won’t be easy.

      1. I’ll be first here to predict this lawsuit will fail, unless the purpose is political fundraising.

  29. Save the COW, and fossil fuels, and save humanity.

    Seriously , the bad guys always planned to take over by defrauding the public by fake narratives such as Climate Change and health emergencies.

    You don’t take from humans what sustains them to save the earth. . What, is the earth going to blow up if the never ending cycle of climate change continues ?

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