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You’re Either Going To Get A Lowball Offer, Or You’re Just Going To Sit There

A report from WINK News in Florida. “Peter Davis, a broker based in Cape Coral, said he noticed a shift in the market this spring. ‘Junk doesn’t sell and buyers aren’t willing to overpay for junk right now because the inventory is creeping up, the days on market is creeping up. So they have more options now,’ David said.”

“During the pandemic, people flocking to Southwest Florida bought anything and everything. Limited inventory and high demand drove some homes in Cape Coral to sell for as must as 50% over their value. ‘We saw very low-interest rates that were the lowest for so long,’ said Amir Neto, director of the Regional Economic Research Institute at FGCU. ‘So people were going above and beyond to try to get that first house.’ But Neto does not believe what is happening is overpricing. ‘We haven’t seen those prices really correct yet,’ Neto said. ‘What we’re seeing instead is appraisals, catching up with prices. So we’re seeing that they’re closing the gap.'”

From Inside NOVA. “There seems to be a tug-of-war going on when it comes to the Virginia real-estate market, with positive data battling it out against figures that show reason for concern. For buyers who remember the olden days (way back in March and April!) when a for-sale sign brought buyers and their money in a feeding frenzy, the new situation may be disconcerting. But for buyers, ‘the expanding supply is good news,’ said Virginia Realtors CEO Ryan Price.”

“Among the eight geographic regions of Virginia as sliced up by Virginia Realtors, year-over-year sales prices rose by rates ranging from 2 percent in Southwest Virginia to 17.9 percent in Southside Virginia, while median sales prices were down by rates ranging from 9.9 percent in Southside Virginia to 32.1 percent in Northern Virginia.”

The Idaho Statesman. “Pawnee Green worried her rent would rise. Her lease lasted through August. Green thought it made sense for her and her husband, Kelly, to buy a home before then. Or at least try. They looked at seven houses, put in an offer on just one. The two-bedroom, one-bathroom house in Northwest Boise was listed at $359,000. They offered $352,000. No bidding war. No risky concessions. No rush to make a snap decision in the heat of the moment. ‘The market, thank God, came down,’ Green said.”

“‘Six months ago it would have been $450,000 for that small little house because of how the market was going,’ Green said. ‘So the fact that in six months, there actually was an opportunity for us to go ahead with it, it was really nice. It sucks for a lot of people that were selling, but it worked out in our favor.’ Green said her mortgage is about $2,500 per month, double her previous rent. It’s a bit of a stretch for Pawnee, who works in accounting for an information technology company, and Kelly, who’s a glass industry wholesaler, Pawnee Green said.”

The Post Independent in Colorado. “The question is regularly raised, ‘With stratospherically spiking home prices, and so called ‘Non-QM (Nonqualifying mortgages, meaning not conforming to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac guidelines) home loans’ making a comeback, are we headed for 2008 all over again.’ A lot of folks, much smarter than I, predict that we are. They cite runaway increases in sales price, year to year, and even month to month. They mention ‘Bank Statement’ borrower qualifying, i.e. the use of, say, six months’ worth of checking account records as opposed to securing employment verifications or tax returns. And they also cite the proliferation of high ratio (90% of value) conventional mortgages.”

The Star Telegram in Texas. “The cooling housing market may be welcome to unsuccessful Dallas-Fort Worth homebuyers, but these changes are already hurting local homeowners facing foreclosure. Foreclosures are up from 177 postings in July to 246 postings in August in Tarrant County, a 39% month-over-month increase. From this time last year, foreclosures have increased fourfold in Tarrant County, according to real estate data firm Foreclosure Listing Service.”

“Foreclosures are also spiking throughout the Metroplex. In Dallas County, foreclosures increased by 41% between July and August. Foreclosure Listing Service COO Curtis Roddy attributes the foreclosure surge to two factors: the end of the federal protections against evictions and foreclosures and the cooling of the housing market. ‘There was no reason for someone to go through the foreclosure process,’ Roddy said. ‘Now houses are sitting on the market … We’re not seeing that liquidity.'”

From Yahoo Finance. “Kenny Simpson, The Simpson Team Mortgage Advisor, joins Yahoo Finance: I came up with this concept. The sellers want the price of yesterday, and the buyers want the price of tomorrow. So this gap is slowly closing here. And so if you’re a seller, and you’re listing your property and you’re being unrealistic, it’s just going to sit there. And buyers know that. They’re smart. There’s so much media now. So you’re either going to get a lowball offer, or you’re just going to sit there.”

From KPIX 5 in California. “In the Bay Area’s hot housing market, there are new signs of breathing space for prospective buyers. Prices remain high, but leveled off in July, while the inventory of homes available for sale went up. ‘That is very good news for the buyers,’ said realtor Elena Clark. ‘It means instead of seeing 15 offers on everything, they’re seeing maybe 1 to 5 offers on most things. So, it makes it much easier for them.'”

“The rising inventory means homes for sale are lingering on the market, days or even weeks longer than they did just a few months ago. Along with it, prices are coming down after two years of record growth. According to Zillow, San Jose saw the largest drop in home values in the country in July, down 4.5%. San Francisco was second with a 2.8% decrease, followed by Phoenix and Austin.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “16-16180 86 Ave., Surrey, B.C. Asking price: $759,000 (June, 2022). Previous asking prices: $848,000 (April, 2022); $820,000 (May, 2022); $799,000 (June, 2022). Selling price: $640,000 (August, 2022). This townhouse was originally listed in April for $848,000, and then the price was dropped to $820,000 a month later. In June, the seller dropped the price to $799,000 and at the end of June dropped the price again to $759,000. Agent Shali Tark received a cash offer for $640,000.”

“The price was adjusted several times for a couple of reasons, says Ms. Tark. The strata age restriction rules limited the buyers who qualified, and the market as a whole had softened. ‘Buyers who purchase these types of homes are downsizing, and many had a setback with the sale of their own home with the market adjusting. That inhibited their ability to purchase.'”

The Liverpool Echo. “Laura Hamilton was brought to tears after a buyer’s gamble on today’s A Place in the Sun. She was showing Diane and Gary around five homes in Cyprus as they aimed to find their perfect property abroad. The couple were looking for a two bedroom apartment with a pool in Paphos and had a maximum budget of £140,000. The search was proving to be tricky as Diane and Gary weren’t blown away by the properties on the search. However, Laura saved the best until last as she showed them around a two bed bungalow in Kato Paphos. The apartment boasted a small courtyard with a huge terrace which had amazing sea views.”

“The property had been on the market for eight months and had been reduced by £20,000 to £144,545. However, the buyers were hesitant as they revealed they would put in an offer of £125,000. Laura encouraged them to take the gamble and the owners came back with a counter offer of £127,000. The expert was blown away when the couple continued to barter and went back with an offer of £126,000. Viewers following the show on Twitter were similarly surprised by the gamble. Tina said: ‘The bargaining is plain insulting now.'”

“Terry added: ‘Now they’re quibbling over £1K?!’ Shrimpsy posted : ‘127, and she wants lower?’ Diane and Gary were thrilled when the offer of £126,000 was accepted. The buyers were brought to tears as their dream property was secured – and Laura admitted she was overwhelmed with emotion too. She said: ‘It’s brought me to tears as well. What a property, what a price.'”

From Domain News in Australia. “Loud amid the chaos of last year’s property boom were the headlines that reported, week after week, properties selling for hundreds of thousands of dollars – sometimes millions – over the reserve or asking price. Advertised price guides appeared redundant because they were routinely outstripped by actual sale prices.But that’s changed as the property market has shifted. Mark Ribarsky of Wise Real Estate is a buyer’s agent working across Victoria and says underquoting has all but disappeared since the property market changed. It’s come as a relief to buyers, he says.”

“‘Typically what you would see earlier last year was a property advertised and heavily underquoted. Everyone just knew that if they were any chance of buying, they needed to put another $100,000 to $200,000 on top of that,’ he says. ‘That’s not happening any more.'”

“Buyer’s agent and principal Michelle May says price guides have ‘certainly’ become more accurate since the property market cooled off. She says it’s often now going the other way. ‘We were astounded with what properties were guiding last year. Now the agents are calling me saying ‘what do you think it’s worth?’ she laughs. ‘So I’d say yes, price guides are certainly more accurate. We’re actually also getting quite a lot of emails on price adjustments where they’re going down.'”

“House price discounting is at its highest rate in almost three years in Sydney, and in Melbourne. The average discount in Melbourne, now at 5.8 per cent, equates to a $62,313 price cut to Melbourne’s median house price of $1,074,369, while the average discount in Sydney is now 6.7 per cent, or $103,985 off the median of $1,552,015.”

“Ribarsky says there are still plenty of buyers but many are sitting on their hands, holding off on purchasing and trying to pick the bottom of the market. ‘For some reason people want to buy when everyone else is, which is crazy,’ he says. ‘They’re more concerned when prices are falling and they shouldn’t be.’ He says some vendors have become jittery and he’s picking up homes for hundreds of thousands of dollars less than he would have six months ago.”

“‘A lot of properties are passing in these days. I walk in, negotiate, and I’m purchasing at a considerable discount,’ he says. ‘There is fear in a changing market and people are holding back but the ones who are brave right now are going to get a fantastic deal.'”

From the Grid. “This summer, hundreds of thousands of Chinese people have sent angry messages to developers, banks and local governments that have reverberated in Beijing’s halls of power. You stop construction, I stop paying my mortgage, says one letter, sent on behalf of 7,200 households that bought deeds in the same property development in Chongqing. ‘You hand over the apartment, I start paying.'”

“Similar threats have been made — and in some cases carried out — across 328 property developments in nearly 100 cities. What has prompted so many people to speak out? The short answer is that construction has stalled at apartment complexes across the country — apartments that have eaten up many people’s life savings. The long answer traces to deep-seated problems in China’s real estate sector that have been brewing for decades and laid bare over the past two years.”

“‘They’ve taken on too many loans to build too many buildings that no one really wants to live in,’ Jeremy Wallace, an associate professor at Cornell University who has studied urbanization in China, told Grid.”

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This Post Has 117 Comments

  1. ‘What we’re seeing instead is appraisals, catching up with prices’

    There’s yer appraisal fraud Amir.

      1. “WTF is wrong with these people?”

        “Human Beings Are First and Foremost Emotional Creatures”

        https://www.psychreg.org/human-beings-are-emotional-creatures/

        (snip)

        “By nature, human beings are first and foremost emotional creatures. We are motivated and activated by emotions. Emotions are the drivers of our behaviours as they automatically tell us what is important or unimportant. Our value system is made up of a hierarchy of emotionally created sensations that rank what is important to us.

        “Emotions drive us and lead us both consciously and unconsciously. Research is showing us that our emotions are instinctual in nature and are encoded within our genes. This bit of information is critically important to understand as it holds the key to unlocking some of human nature’s mysteries.

        “We are guided and controlled by our emotions as exemplified with the ‘fight-or-flight’ response that we are all aware of. We feel physical sensations, both positive and negative because of certain chemicals that are automatically released due to external and internal stimuli.

        “There are some specific hormones that greatly affect human emotions. These hormones include oestrogen, progesterone, testosterone, norepinephrine and epinephrine, serotonin, GABA, dopamine, acetylcholine, and oxytocin. Our thoughts and our feelings are highly influenced by the emotions produced by these hormones.

        “Our everyday habits, routines, rituals, attitudes, and perceptions are all influenced by our emotions. So much so that we don’t realise that we are programmed by them. The concept of free will can come into question with our preferences built-in to our being.”

        Our preferences are instrumental in creating who we are and what we want. Are we really making choices or are we just expressing what is already inside us? This is a great question to ponder.

  2. 16-16180 86 Ave., Surrey, B.C. Asking price: $759,000 (June, 2022). Previous asking prices: $848,000 (April, 2022); $820,000 (May, 2022); $799,000 (June, 2022). Selling price: $640,000 (August, 2022).

    The Globe didn’t post how much this town-shack sold for previously as they always do. I wonder why?

  3. ‘median sales prices were down by rates ranging from 9.9 percent in Southside Virginia to 32.1 percent in Northern Virginia’

    Eat yer crowz taxpayer.

  4. ‘Pawnee Green worried her rent would rise. Her lease lasted through August…Green said her mortgage is about $2,500 per month, double her previous rent. It’s a bit of a stretch’

    Yer fooked Pawnee.

    ‘They offered $352,000. No bidding war. No risky concessions. No rush to make a snap decision in the heat of the moment. ‘The market, thank God, came down’

    ‘Six months ago it would have been $450,000 for that small little house because of how the market was going’

    So now we got the answer about ‘you no longer have to offer 100k over list, does that mean prices are down 100k’.

    1. “Smith had spent much of her adult life renting in Boise’s North End. In April, the median price of a North End home was more than $1 million. Locals, like Smith and Vaughn, often can’t afford to buy a home there. The neighborhood doesn’t have the same feel anymore, she said.”

      Over $1 million in Boise, ID?

  5. ‘They mention ‘Bank Statement’ borrower qualifying, i.e. the use of, say, six months’ worth of checking account records as opposed to securing employment verifications or tax returns. And they also cite the proliferation of high ratio (90% of value) conventional mortgages’

    Rock solid lending!

  6. ‘It means instead of seeing 15 offers on everything, they’re seeing maybe 1 to 5 offers on most things’

    Somebody tell Elena that’s Aprils talking point.

  7. ‘Laura encouraged them to take the gamble and the owners came back with a counter offer of £127,000. The expert was blown away when the couple continued to barter and went back with an offer of £126,000. Viewers following the show on Twitter were similarly surprised by the gamble. Tina said: ‘The bargaining is plain insulting now’

    ‘Terry added: ‘Now they’re quibbling over £1K?!’ Shrimpsy posted : ‘127, and she wants lower?’

    That’s the spirit!

  8. ‘For some reason people want to buy when everyone else is, which is crazy’

    It’s gambling mentality Mark.

      1. “…It’s the lemming effect….”

        Ah, the lemming effect. (FOMO and hormones gone wild.)

        That explains the long line of borrowers (on their kneepads) queuing up outside Mr. Bankers office.

  9. ‘They’ve taken on too many loans to build too many buildings that no one really wants to live in’

    That sounds like a 55 trillon peso market to me!

    1. what happens when it reaches 5 years without property appreciation for many owners in tier 2 and 3 cities in China. Property is really their only investment vehicle. How will their disillusion surface?

      If i was a young person, do i take on this type of debt to buy an apartment, or do i start to enjoy my life in a quiet way. If i have an apartment, when do i start to walk away

      1. If a young man in China wants a wife then he needs to own real estate, hence the extreme demand for real estate.

        This extreme demand for real estate spawned into being thousands of apartments that were meant to be invested in and not necessarily lived in.

        1. “…If a young man in China wants a wife then he needs to own real estate…”

          If I were a young man in China, I would re-consider my options.

          (If it floats, flies, or f**ks, don’t buy, rent)

          1. “If I were a young man in China, I would re-consider my options.”

            Raging hormones tend to limit such options, or even remove them altogether.

  12. A reader sent these is:

    Eric Basmajian

    Volumes in the housing market are imploding. New home sales are -51% from 2 years ago. So, is this as bad as 2008 or not? Let’s see 👇 1/25

    https://twitter.com/EPBResearch/status/1564287361076297731

    Birdman hand rub

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1564391816761311232

    Lots of content gems on Reddit in just the last 24 hours

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1564392661292924928

    Whatever @zillow’s model is, it’s embarrassing. Same zip code, one month apart, the “yearly forecast” drops from 11.4% to 1.4%. Stop pretending you can forecast anything!

    https://twitter.com/encorebubble/status/1564448458441834496

    Jeff Weniger

    Housing is in trouble. 1/10

    https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1564365323754766336

    Rick Palacios Jr.

    Some home sellers are switching their listings to rentals as for-sale housing market struggles.

    https://twitter.com/RickPalaciosJr/status/1564292314679259136

  15. ‘Chloe Cole was 15 years old when she agreed to let a “gender-affirming” surgeon remove her healthy breasts—a life-altering decision she now deeply regrets. Her “brutal” transition from female to male was anything but the romanticized “gender journey” that transgender activists and medical professionals had portrayed, she told The Epoch Times. “It’s a little creepy to call it that,” she said.’

    ‘Cole, who is now 18, feels more like she’s just awoken from “a nightmare,” and she’s disappointed with the medical and school system that fast-tracked her to gender transition surgery. “I was convinced that it would make me happy, that it would make me whole as a person,” she said.’

    ‘Although she feels “let down” by most of the adults in her life, she doesn’t blame her parents for following the advice of school staff and medical professionals, who “affirmed” her desire for social transitioning, puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and surgery.’

    ‘Most of the medical professionals did nothing to question or dissuade her or her parents, she said. “They effectively guilted my parents into allowing them to do this. They gave them the whole, ‘Either you’ll have a dead daughter or a live son,’ thing. They cited suicide rates,” she said. “There is just so much complacence on the part of educators—all the adults basically. I’m really upset over it. I feel a little bit angry. I wasn’t really allowed to just grow.”

    ‘Her parents, though skeptical, trusted the medical professionals and eventually consented to their daughter’s desire for medical interventions, including surgery, which was covered by their health insurance policy. “It shouldn’t be put on adolescents to make these kinds of decisions at all,” she said.’

    ‘Cole has been harassed on social media and received a couple of death threats from trans activists since she announced her detransition and took a stand against “gender-affirming” policies.’

    “Now that I’m completely disillusioned from all of it, it’s really shocking that we’ve even gotten to this point,” she said.’

    ‘“I was 15. You can’t exactly expect an adolescent to be making adult decisions,” she said. “So, because of a decision I made when I was kid, I can’t breastfeed my children in the future. It’s just a little concerning that this is being recommended to kids at the age I was, and now even younger. They’re starting to operate on preteens now.”

    “I started to realize this is what I’m taking away from myself. I’m not going to be able to bond with my children the same way that a mother does by taking on a male role and I’ve gotten rid of my breasts, so I can’t feed my children naturally or be involved with them in that way. And I think that was like the biggest catalyst in me realizing how wrong all of this was,” she said.’

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/ex-transgender-teen-recounts-horrifying-experience-of-transition-surgery_4694543.html

    1. What sane parent let’s their daughters healthy breasts be removed? Where is CPS?

      Oh right. They’re banging on the door of parents who said something disagreeable at the PTA meeting.

        1. I recall reading about Rome’s decadence before it fell. I wondered how that could happen. And now, it is happening again right before our eyes. The answer, of course. is that if the people are corrupt and immoral, they will get a corrupt and immoral society.

          1. It’s worse than the decadence of Ancient Rome.

            I’m not even religious, but I have to agree with the language in the Old Testament of the Bible that correctly terms this as an abomination.

            And remember, when you buy a house your property taxes are paying to promote this in the public schools.

    2. Sadly, I know at least two people who would probably be okay with this. One is married to a shrink.

    3. The “medical professionals” who do this should be subject to extrajudicial execution.

      No trial, just kill them.

    4. “‘Cole has been harassed on social media and received a couple of death threats from trans activists since she announced her detransition and took a stand against “gender-affirming” policies.’“

      So much for “my body, my choice.”

  16. Chloe Cole was 15 years old when she agreed to let a “gender-affirming” surgeon remove her healthy breasts—a life-altering decision she now deeply regrets.’

    “The Hippocratic oath, written in the 5th century BCE, does contain language suggesting that the physician and his assistants should not cause physical or moral harm to a patient.”

  17. ‘Non-QM (Nonqualifying mortgages, meaning not conforming to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac guidelines) home loans’

    What’s the difference between these and subprime mortgage loans?

    1. The Wall Street Journal
      Today’s Stock Market News: Dow, S&P 500 Turn Lower in Morning Trading
      Follow the Wall Street Journal’s full markets coverage.
      Aug 30, 2022 at 11:30 am ET

      Today’s Coverage

      There is more red on traders’ screens today.

      Stocks moved lower in morning trading Tuesday, a sign that the selloff of the last two sessions could continue. Treasury yields rose.

      As of early morning in New York:

      – The Dow industrials were down 0.5%, while the S&P 500 was off 0.6%. The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.6%. All of the S&P 500’s sectors were in the red.
      – The two-year Treasury yield was 3.478%, from 3.427% Monday, while the 10-year yield was 3.127%, from 3.109%.
      – The dollar was slightly stronger, with the WSJ Dollar Index up 0.1%.

      Not everything was falling. Some retailers were up after reporting quarterly earnings; Bed Bath and Beyond continued its meme-stock run ahead of an investor update scheduled for tomorrow morning.
      …

      1. August 30, 2022 7:43 AM PDT
        Last Updated 2 hours ago
        UK 10-year bonds head for biggest monthly fall since 1986
        By David Milliken
        3 minute read
        Pedestrians walk past the Bank of England, in London, Britain, August 8, 2022. REUTERS/Toby Melville

        LONDON, Aug 30 (Reuters) – British government bonds tumbled again on Tuesday, catching up with losses for U.S. and German debt following a public holiday on Monday as markets digested remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
        …
        https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/uk-10-year-bonds-head-biggest-monthly-fall-since-1986-2022-08-30/

    2. Dumb question of the day: Will Wall Street transition straight from recent weakness into a new bull market, or will it first have to ensure a capitulation phase, where everyone who bought the dip this year comes to regret having done so?

      1. Yahoo
        Bloomberg
        Panic Button Is Nowhere in Sight as Memory of 7th S&P Rout Fades
        Lu Wang
        Mon, August 29, 2022 at 1:18 PM·4 min read

        (Bloomberg) — Worried? Yes. But investors have evinced few signs of panic amid a stock market drubbing that has wiped out $3 trillion, going by everything from fund flows to options trading.

        One sign nerves are in check: as the S&P 500 dropped more than 3% Friday, the Cboe Volatility Index, a measure of options cost that’s also known as VIX, was stuck near 25, lower than in the six other instances this year when stocks sold off like this.

        Exchange-traded fund investors, disheartened by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole, quickly pulled money out of stocks. Yet at $1.2 billion, the amount of withdrawals was roughly half the daily outflow experienced around the market’s June low.

        Light positioning among professional investors has helped keep emotions in check. Mutual funds are in defensive postures, parking money in cash, while hedge funds cut exposure ahead of market catalysts such as Powell’s speech and looming data on employment and inflation. The lack of full-blown capitulation is a sign that the carnage is not over, especially when rules-based funds and pensions are expected to offload shares in coming days.
        …
        https://finance.yahoo.com/news/panic-button-nowhere-sight-memory-201850011.html

      2. Bear Markets, real bear markets, are long slow grinding affairs (look at the 30’s, the early 70’s and the late 70’s). They rally up and sucker in more people and then grind them out slowly down. Lower highs and lower lows. They take out everyone until everyone HATES what’s being sold (stocks, houses, bonds, tulips, whatever). We are nowhere near that point. People still want to jump in (houses, bitcoin, stocks). It will continue to grind lower, sucking in everyone and getting the most possible pain until there is no talk about “capitulation” because there is no talk about the asset class at all.

  19. “Along with it, prices are coming down after two years of record growth. According to Zillow, San Jose saw the largest drop in home values in the country in July, down 4.5%.”

    1 – (1-0.045)^12 = 42.5% annualized rate of decline.

    That does seem incredibly large!

  20. $310,000 3 bd 2ba 1,552 sqft
    Price cut: $30K (8/29)
    3403 Isador Ave, Kingman, AZ 86401

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3403-Isador-Ave-Kingman-AZ-86401/90144835_zpid/

    Date Event Price
    8/29/2022 Price change $310,000 (-8.8%) $200/sqft

    8/15/2022 Price change $340,000 (-5.6%) $219/sqft

    7/25/2022 Listed for sale $360,000 (+12.5%) $232/sqft

    2/25/2022 Sold $320,000 $206/sqft

    1/29/2022 Listing removed $320,000 $206/sqft

    1/18/2022 Listed for sale $320,000 (+66.2%) $206/sqft

    7/2/2018 Sold $192,500 (-8.3%) $124/sqft

      2. Oh, that brings back memories of probably the funniest listing ever on HBB. There was a tiny falling-down shack in Cali with ONE scraggly bush out front, listed for $900K. But it was “fully landscaped.”

  23. Florida woman fights back after man allegedly broke into her home, attacked her
    FOX 35 Orlando
    Aug 30, 2022 A homeless Florida man was arrested Friday morning for allegedly breaking into a Brevard County home and threatening to rape a person inside, according to an affidavit. Deputies responded to the home on School Street in Cocoa around 6:30 a.m. after 40-year-old Christopher Sloan had reportedly broken a side door and entered one of the home’s bedrooms, where the woman was lying in her bed.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XI4eLtASM7g

    2 minutes. Looks like she won.

    1. Cocoa is where I started out in life. Doesn’t seem like the area has improved since we left.

  24. How about this:

    “Deplorables”………. Hilary Clinton

    ” Disease of Unvaccinated”
    ” White Supremacists”
    ” Domestic Terrorists”
    ” Semi fasist “……….Joe Biden

    ” Vermin Jews” …….Hitler

    ” Racist”
    “Disinformation”
    ” Transgender Phobic”
    ” Climate Deniers”
    “Anti vaxxers”
    ” Russian Operatives”
    “Election Deniers”
    “Dangerous Gun Owners”
    I could go on and on,…,…………… Main Stream News and Democratic Party

    Calling maybe over half the population these names repeatedly , especially open discrimination against a big portion of Citizens , without proof of allegations, is a campaign.
    I think one of the reasons why the Global Mega Rich Powers will fail is this attack on regular law abiding Citizens , just trying to make a living, is ridicules.
    But, its always a divide and conquer tactic, with making a group or groups into a enemy to destroy. Take the heat off the small group of culprits that are creating the fraudulent narratives.
    And what the hell is a Simi- fasist, a person who only has one foot into being fasist …..what? Someone in first stages of becoming fasist?

  26. Craziness still going on in West Orlando area:

    9850 Beach Port Dr, Winter Garden, FL 34787
    4bed
    4.5bath
    3,402sqft3,402 square feet
    0.25acre lot0.25 acre lot
    Orange Winter Garden
    9850 Beach Port Dr
    Sold on August 30, 2022 last sold for
    $1,125,000
    Single Family
    Year Built
    2020
    .
    Property History
    Price History
    Date Event Price Price/Sq Ft Source
    08/30/2022 Sold $1,125,000 $331 StellarMLS
    06/20/2022 Relisted $1,149,500 $338 StellarMLS
    05/31/2022 Listing Removed $1,196,000 $352 StellarMLS
    05/10/2022 Listed $1,196,000 $352 StellarMLS
    08/27/2020 Sold $603,056 $177 StellarMLS

      1. I am so tired of the Florida housing market. I’ve suggested moving elsewhere to my husband. I’m rather suspicious that it’s going to crash harder than people think here, though.

    2. Almost $8000 in property taxes + $2700 HOA + who knows how much to insure.

      In low wage Orlando. And it almost doubled in price in just two years.

        1. When you say, “wealthy,” do mean people who still drive to work in the morning, or those who read their investor group news letters?

          1. Exactly. $25M fir a house in Rosemary Beach is wealthy.
            $22M for a house in Naples is wealthy.
            $1M is a shack.
            Anything beliw $12M in some neighborhoods is unheard of as even parcels are selling for $4M and up

            The dollar us worthless and houses, like cars, aren’t built like they once were.

  28. Why is gold and silver cratering day after day? Gold and silver are cheaper today than they were 11 years ago.

    Toxic housing
    Toxic stocks
    Toxic gold
    Toxic silver

  29. “Will This Housing Downturn Be Worse Than 2008?”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/will-housing-downturn-be-worse-2008

    (a few snips)

    When we look at home price growth at the peak of the last bubble in 2005, what we see is that home price growth was very concentrated in certain states and cities. Arizona, Nevada, California and Florida saw annual home price growth above 20%.

    National home price growth averaged about 11% at the peak in 2005.

    Today, national home price growth is higher than at the peak of the last housing bubble at almost 14% and when we look at the previous maps, we can see the price appreciation is much more broad based. The biggest bubble in 2005, which was Arizona, was crazier than the biggest bubble today, which is Idaho but today there are 38 states with annual home price growth over 10%. At the peak in 2005, only 26 states had annual home price growth above 10%.

    So will a housing crash today be worse than 2008 given how much more pervasive the rampant home price growth has been? For that we’ll have to look at the leading indicators of home price growth, debt levels, and Federal Reserve policy.

    There are several key leading indicators of real home price growth that I noted in my most recent post on home prices.

    We discussed the months supply of newly constructed homes, the mortgage spread or mortgage rates, and the growth rate of real M2.

    The months supply metric shows how many months it will take to clear the current pool of inventory at the current pace of sales. Months supply has exploded to 10.9 which means it will take almost 11 months to get rid of all the inventory of new homes in the pipeline at the current rate of sales. The months supply of newly constructed homes is a leading indicator of home price growth. Higher months supply today means lower home prices to follow.

    We’re more concerned about the inventory of new homes compared to existing homes because all the economic activity and jobs are attached to new construction rather than existing homes.

    In 2008, the months supply figure exploded to 12.2 so it’s not quite as bad yet, although it could get there.

    The pace of sales volume is completely collapsing today and there’s no signs of a slowdown in the pace of decline. The volume of new home sales is down 51% since August 2020. In 2008 and into 2009, new home sales fell by 70% so it’s not quite as bad yet, but we haven’t hit bottom yet.

    In terms of mortgage rates, we have a problem today that is WORSE than 2008. In 2006, mortgage rates jumped 1.3% on a year over year basis. So in 2006, when the housing bubble started to pop mortgage rates were 6.8% compared to 5.5% a year earlier. This spike in mortgage rates kills home prices because people just can’t afford rising home prices and rising mortgage rates.

    While mortgage rates today are 5.6%, lower than in 2006, the spike or the pace of increase is much worse. Mortgage rates today are more than 2.7% higher than just one year ago!

    So the pace of increase in mortgage rates is double the pace of the 2006 period that caused that housing bubble to pop. That’s an ominous sign that will cause buyer demand to stop dead in it’s tracks…something we are already starting to witness with new home sales crashing 51%.

    The next metric to consider is the rate of liquidity growth or money growth.

    In the lead up to the peak in the housing bubble in 2006, liquidity growth was NOT excessive. The bubble in 2006 and the crash in 2008 was more about a debt crisis and cheap credit.

    (there’s more to this article but I am not posting it because I don’t want to piss off Ben by using too much of his bandwidth)

    1. “Months supply has exploded to 10.9 which means it will take almost 11 months to get rid of all the inventory of new homes in the pipeline at the current rate of sales. The months supply of newly constructed homes is a leading indicator of home price growth. Higher months supply today means lower home prices to follow.
      …
      In 2008, the months supply figure exploded to 12.2 so it’s not quite as bad yet, although it could get there.”

      They compared the eighth inning of the 2007-2009 bust to the first inning of the current one. This game is barely underway, and the months supply in the current episode is almost as high as the worst level of the previous nust.

    2. “While mortgage rates today are 5.6%, lower than in 2006, the spike or the pace of increase is much worse. Mortgage rates today are more than 2.7% higher than just one year ago!”

      Also important:

      1) Rapid runup in prices during the pandemic almost everywhere to levels that stretched affordability to the limit BEFORE mortgage rates went sky high

      2) Record share of recent residential housing purchases by investors

      The interest rate increases have eliminated traditional mortgage financed owner occupants from the buyer pool at last year’s prices, and their absence may lead investors wondering what fundamental support there is to underpin prices. If investors exit the demand pool, the support level will drop to whatever potential owner occupants can afford to pay, based on their incomes and current mortgage rates, which is a lot below last year’s prices.

      1. What about this argument about better credit scores? I feel these scores are about to get lower very soon.

          1. The co-founder and CEO of Snap is Evan Spiegel, from, IIRC, the Spiegel Catalog family.

          3. More interesting for you, Evan Spiegel snagged Victoria’s Secret model Miranda Kerr from Orlando Bloom.

  31. If Quantitative Easing drove up inflation and asset prices, would Quantitative Tightening have the opposite effects?

    1. Newsletter
      Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day
      By Eddie van der Walt
      August 30, 2022 at 3:41 AM PDT
      What’s moving markets

      Fed tightening

      The Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening program will ramp up this week. As part of a broader plan to reduce a $9 trillion portfolio, the Fed will boost its monthly caps for the amount of Treasuries and holdings of mortgage-backed securities that it will let mature. For some investors, the withdrawal of support is a good reason to be pessimistic on this market. Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, is in that bear camp. In an interview with Bloomberg Television, he predicted that rate hikes will drive down both inflation and economic growth, sending asset markets to declines on the scale of 20% to 25%.
      …
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-08-30/five-things-you-need-to-know-to-start-your-day
      …

      1. Nobody knows any of the following:

        1) How much of risk asset appreciation in the Everything Bubble was due to Quantitative Easing

        2) How much risk asset devaluation will happen if the Fed follows through on announced Quantitative Tightening plans

        3) Whether the Fed will carry out Quantitative Tightening plans if resulting risk asset devaluation exceeds what they predict

        There are lots of known unknowns in play!

        2. “1) How much of risk asset appreciation in the Everything Bubble was due to Quantitative Easing[?]”

          – Here’s a chart of the S&P 500 compared to Central Bank (CB) assets (i.e. balance sheets). It’s left for the reader to decide if there’s any correlation or not. (Hint: I wouldn’t be surprised if R~1). : )

          https://www.yardeni.com/pub/peacockfedecbassets.pdf
          S&P 500 & ASSETS OF MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS
          p.5
          Figure 6.

          – Notice the S&P 500 tracking the CB bal. sheets. This is true on the way up (since 2009 and the GFC), but also on the way down as the stonk bear market continues… Bubbles always burst and central bankers are evil.
          – This has been THE global eCONomy since the GFC. Guess what happens as CBs withdraw liquidity? Oh dear!

    2. BINGO! We have a winner. I think Ben posted some time ago about all the excess inventory of everything being ultimately deflationary. I agree

  32. Orlando, FL Housing Prices Crater 18% YOY As The Toxic Rot Of Subprime Mortgage Defaults Looms Over Florida Housing Market

    https://www.movoto.com/fl/32837/market-trends/

    As one national broker conceded, “We’ve been scraping the bottom of the buyer barrel for 15 years or more. Why do you think mortgage defaults are 600% higher than long term trend?”

  33. “Green said her mortgage is about $2,500 per month, double her previous rent. It’s a bit of a stretch for Pawnee, who works in accounting for an information technology company, and Kelly, who’s a glass industry wholesaler, Pawnee Green said.”

    Double her rent and it’s a stretch? Hey Pawnee you will soon be visiting the shops starting with your first name!

  34. Clutch those pearls harder, globalist sh*tbags.

    New York Times — Response to Trump Search Highlights Violent Rhetoric From the Right (8/30/2022):

    “the F.B.I.’s search of Mar-a-Lago has emerged as the latest rallying cry for those on the right who have long been suspicious that the powers of the federal government could be turned against them. It has prompted calls to dismantle or defund the F.B.I. and furious denunciations of what far-right supporters of Mr. Trump increasingly portray as an overreaching national security apparatus.”

    The 2020 election was stolen.

    “On Tuesday, Mr. Trump spent much of the morning reposting messages from known purveyors of the QAnon conspiracy theory and from 4chan, an anonymous message platform where threats of violence often blossom.”

    You will read more truth on 4chan than you ever will in the pages of the New York Times or Washington Post.

    “the response by Mr. Trump and some of his allies to the search at Mar-a-Lago — including statements laced with fury at the Justice Department and the F.B.I. — is underscoring yet again the degree to which threatening undertones are creeping into Republican political speech, raising concern about words spilling over into violent action.”

    The violent action in 2020 was $2+ billion of property damage and dozens of murders, committed by Democrat Party and not prosecuted by Democrat Party.

    https://archive.ph/v9BZb

    The New York Times is globalist scum media.

    1. The New York Times just sells its Grey Lady image to the highest bidder. Not 20 years ago they were on their knees for Dick Cheney posting lies about Iraq.

  35. Some good news for a Tuesday.

    New York Times — Frustrations Mount at Washington Post as Its Business Struggles (8/30/2022):

    “The Post’s business has stalled in the past year. As the breakneck news pace of the Trump administration faded away, readers have turned elsewhere, and the paper’s push to expand beyond Beltway coverage hasn’t compensated for the loss.

    The organization is on track to lose money in 2022, after years of profitability, according to two people with knowledge of the company’s finances. The Post now has fewer than the three million paying digital subscribers it had hailed internally near the end of 2020, according to several people at the organization. Digital ad revenue generated by The Post fell to roughly $70 million during the first half of the year, about 15 percent lower than in the first half of 2021, according to an internal financial document reviewed by The New York Times.”

    Eat sh*t and die, globalist scum.

    “The Post’s newsroom remains one of the most formidable in the country. This year, it won the coveted Pulitzer Prize for Public Service for reporting on the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol.”

    https://archive.ph/MEbqs

    The 2020 election was stolen.

    Trump won. And he was correct when he stated that “the media is the enemy of the American people.”

  36. Globalist scum media.

    The Washington Post is globalist scum media.

    Washington Post — Rising GOP anger at Trump shows a deeper problem for the party (8/30/2022):

    https://archive.ph/Ts7kH

    The Archive website has not been working all the time recently. Searching on the link returned 5 results, but some of those Archive links were only to a subscriber paywall article intro.

    We do NOT generate links or clicks for the Washington Post, because we want them to starve.

    Starve these globalists. Get them all laid off from their globalist Bezos funded jobs.

    Beltway navel gazers, go get a real job.

  37. Globalist scum media.

    The Guardian is globalist scum media.

    The Guardian — Americans are starting to get it: we can’t let Trump – or Trumpism – back in office (8/30/2022):

    https://archive.ph/DkNTY

    No article excerpt needed. Read it for FREE and deny The Guardian all revenue, no clicks, no page loads, no advertising. No money generated for globalist scum The Guardian.

  38. In 2005, the information was out there, but so few were able to see the crash. Very different circumstances this time, but now housing has dropped 6%. Does anybody know which city will crash hardest?
    1) Boise
    2) Riverside, CA
    3) Salt Lake City
    4) Phoenix and suburbs
    5) Austin
    6) Las Vegas
    7) Tampa Bay
    8) Nashville
    9) high end Orange County, CA
    10) Sacramento

  39. Biden calls out ‘MAGA Republicans’ on Jan. 6, attacking FBI over Mar-a-Lago search

    “Whose side are you on?” Biden demanded at a political rally in Pennsylvania.

    By Alexandra Hutzler
    August 30, 2022, 7:27 PM

    “Let me say this to my MAGA Republican friends in Congress: Don’t tell me you support law enforcement if you won’t condemn what happened on Jan. 6,” he continued. “For God’s sake, whose side are you on?”

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-calls-maga-republicans-jan-attacking-fbi-mar/story?id=89048483

    ABC News Politics
    @ABCPolitics
    ·
    Pres. Biden calls out “MAGA Republicans” who defend Jan. 6 rioters.

    “Don’t tell me you support law enforcement if you won’t condemn what happened on the 6th…For God’s sake, whose side are you on?” https://abcn.ws/3Q0cF2X

    https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1564710078250352641?s=20&t=eo1d7faUbrAjQaHgdGbsVA

  40. Boise and Salt Lake City both have winter seasons, so economic activity slows to a crawl then. Usually it’s the places furthest from the employment core that wither first. Last bubble, they drove outward until they could afford the mortgage, and now fuel is costly again.

  41. Would you rather catch yourself a falling knife, or buy after prices reach the bottom of the CR8R.

    1. 70% of home sellers in Boise, Idaho, drop prices, most in nation. Utah, Colorado cities rank close behind
      By Katie McKellar
      Aug 22, 2022, 2:05pm PDT

      Pandemic “boomtowns” are again leading the nation with the largest share of sellers slashing their prices as the COVID-19-related housing frenzy hangover sets in.

      The West continues to be ground zero for that phenomena.

      Nearly 70% of homes for sale in Boise, Idaho, had a price drop in July, according to a new Redfin analysis of 97 metros across the U.S. released Monday.

      Next in line came Denver, where 58% of homes for sale saw a price drop.

      Salt Lake City ranked No. 3, with 56.4% of homes dropping in price.

      Tacoma, Washington, came in fourth, with 54.8%.

      In 2020, 2021 and early 2022, the West became an appealing destination for Americans set free by remote work. Demand here, in fast-growing areas that were already booming, skyrocketed even more, translating to yearly double-digit price increases that have compounded to over 50% or even 60% higher in some areas.

      Those four cities also topped Redfin’s list in June, and Boise, Salt Lake City and Tacoma were among the 10 metros with the biggest increase in price-drop rates from a year earlier, according to Redfin.

      In May, another Utah metro — Provo — saw the nation’s largest share of home asking price cuts.

      Nationwide, the share of homes for sale with price drops hit a record high in July, according to Redfin.

      What do these record price drops mean?

      “Sellers had to cut their prices because they were catching up with buyers, who had come to expect lower prices amid a cooling market,” according to Redfin. “Rising mortgage rates and the prospect of falling home values also made buyers hesitant to pay sky-high prices, and an uptick in supply gave them more to choose from.”
      …
      https://www.deseret.com/utah/2022/8/22/23316781/housing-market-home-prices-idaho-utah-colorado-boise-salt-lake-city-denver

      1. It’s hilarious how articles like this one, which convincingly document the incipient housing bust with statistical evidence, invariably end with a long explanation by MSM selected housing experts that this time is different and no crash is in the works

        1. ‘Experts have said it would likely take an economic sea change — sweeping layoffs, foreclosures and a dismal job market — to drastically disrupt Utah’s housing price trajectory and send statewide prices spiraling downward.

          In Utah, however, after two years of runaway home price growth, home prices in June plateaued and even dipped slightly as the market appears to approach a sense of “normalcy,” in the words of Dejan Eskic, a senior research fellow at the University of Utah’s Kem C. Gardner Institute and one of Utah’s leading housing experts.’

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