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You Don’t Need To Be A Statistical Giant To Know A Ghost Town When You See One

A report from WLNS in Michigan. “When it comes to the current housing market, Lansing broker Heather Driscoll said it’s in the process of cooling off. ‘It has somewhat evened out I would say,’ she said. ‘So, we are now going back to seeing a lot of price reductions.’ Heather is also seeing homes sitting on the market longer and offers coming in from buyers lower than the listing price. ‘So, it is definitely a different market than what we saw six to twelve months ago,’ Driscoll said.”

“According to Driscoll, the average home price for the area was around $255,000 during the time of the hot market and that price is now dwindling. ‘And we are seeing a little bit lower than that, we’re seeing about $200,000 to $225,000,’ she adds.”

The Lincoln Journal Star. “Higher mortgage rates appear to finally be having an effect on the local real estate market.According to the Great Plains Regional Multiple Listing Service, sales of existing homes in the Lincoln area were down almost 10% in July compared with a year ago. That’s the third time in the past four months that sales have declined on a year-over-year basis. Mark Faatz, an agent with Nebraska Realty, said it’s still a seller’s market, but it’s more of a normal market, with much less of the ‘crazy behavior’ of the past few years when buyers bid up the price of houses and it was not uncommon for sellers to get half a dozen offers or more. ‘There’s not many multiple-offer situations right now,’ Faatz said.”

The Denver Gazette in Colorado. “Metro Denver home sale prices dropped for the second month in a row in August, and days on market have reached a breathing-room level of 19 days, when it was just nine days a year ago, according to the Denver Metro Association of Realtors Market Trends report. The average sales price for multifamily and single-family homes in the 11-county metro Denver area dropped 5.93% to $657,284 in August compared to the previous month. The median price also dropped month-over-month slightly to $579,900. It was the third month prices either dropped, or stayed flat from the previous month.”

“There were 6,939 homes available for sale at the end of last month, down 5.73% from July but up almost twice as many as August 2021. ‘All of the major statistical categories are pointing towards the market slowing down,’ Market Trends Chair Andrew Abrams wrote in the report. ‘Sellers have to recalibrate their expectations and patience after a wild summer.'”

“The end-of-summer market showed continued cooling as the number of closings dropped 5.93% from July to 4,221. That’s 30.21% less activity then August 2021. The drop in prices — list-to-price ratio dropped below 100% for the first time since July of 2020 — is simply adjusting from historic highs, according to Abrams. ‘While some will take this as a sign that the real estate market is about to crash, this simply is not the case,’ he wrote. An interesting stat from the report showed the number of for-sale single-family homes, called ‘detached,’ were up 114.58% from August of 2021 to 5,298 homes, while multifamily home inventory grew 47.44% in that time. ‘The majority of buyers motivations have shifted from buying for financial reasons,’ according to Abrams, ‘to buying for their lifestyle.'”

5280 in Colorado. “If you’ve spent time downtown recently, you may have noticed it feels different: quieter, emptier, less vibrant. What we once thought was a temporary shift to remote work now feels more permanent; lingering variants won’t stop, well, lingering; and businesses can’t seem to find the talent they need to thrive. What’s the biggest challenge facing downtown Denver right now? Kourtny Garrett, CEO of the Downtown Denver Partnership: ‘Bringing people back. In a matter of 24 to 48 hours in March 2020, we lost just over 100,000 people from our downtown core.'”

From Silicon Valley in California. “Jenny Dang stood inside the entrance to her restaurant, China Wok, in downtown San Jose on a recent weekday and waved toward her customer-free dining room. ‘Look, lunch — so empty here,’ said Dang, a 38-year veteran of the downtown scene. ‘I don’t know how long I can stay.’ Business is down 60% from before the COVID pandemic, she said. ‘It used to be good.'”

“While other major U.S. urban cores are teeming with people, downtown San Jose is seeing only half the human activity of pre-pandemic times, central Oakland is slightly worse off, and San Francisco’s core is not even a third of the way back to its former level — the worst recovery level of any large city in North America, according to new data. The University of Toronto numbers, based on cell phone location information, quantify what’s evident to anyone setting foot in Bay Area city centers.”

“‘You don’t need to be a statistical giant to know a ghost town when you see one,’ said Jim Wunderman, CEO of the Bay Area Council, a group representing hundreds of employers.”

KCRA in California. “Open drug use has worsened in the Broadway area of Land Park recently, according to neighbors who say they are upset about a lack of action to combat lawlessness. ‘It kills me, our city has been destroyed,’ said Land Park resident and mother of two, Monica Robinson. ‘When I drive through this neighborhood now, I don’t know what my kids are going to see, but more importantly I don’t know how I’m going to explain to my kids what they’re seeing.'”

“According to the city of Sacramento and police, in the last month, narcotics, burglary, aggravated assault, battery, vandalism, and weapon-related crimes have all been committed in the vicinity of Broadway, which flanks the northern side of Land Park. ‘We’ve got people dealing drugs, and shooting up, and having crazy episodes in front of children … I keep hearing about revitalization in this area, and this is what we’re getting instead,’ said Land Park Community Association vice president Kristina Rogers. ‘Crime is happening every day 24/7, drug dealing is happening 24/7.'”

From Newsweek. “House prices in Phoenix, Arizona, have been dropping for two consecutive months, as one of the hottest housing markets appears to begin cooling down. For now, homebuyers are better off waiting for prices to continue dropping. ‘I think it’s time to be patient if you’re a buyer. You’ll get a much better opportunity to buy a home six, 12, 18, 24, 36 months from now, depending on where you are, what you’re looking for,’ said Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.”

From Candy’s Dirt in Texas. “Do you know how I can tell the housing market in Fort Worth is still balancing? It’s not the increase in inventory. It’s not the increase in days on market that homes are showing. It’s the nearly 50 emails per week that I receive from new home builders. Ask any Realtor and they will tell you that their email, text, and paper marketing from new home builders has skyrocketed in the past months versus the previous 20.”

“Now that the real estate market is cooling and the pool of eligible home buyers is shrinking, builders are rolling out the red carpet to prospective buyers and Realtors in hopes of keeping their projected sales numbers high and their shareholders and bankers happy. A quick search of the MLS data for the City of Fort Worth shows there are roughly 3,800 homes now available for sale. Of that, more than 700 of them are new homes completed or under construction in 2022.”

“In a real estate market with low inventory and high demand (like we’ve enjoyed for past 20-plus months) builders have been able to put a price on a home and get it with little hesitation. In a real estate market where buyers are tightening their budget and interest rates are limiting their buying power, homes aren’t going to fly off the shelf. We are already seeing builders groveling back to buyers and Realtors, offering bonuses and incentives and discounts on homes. Prices are being slashed by the tens of thousands on completed or nearly completed inventory homes.”

The Dunfermline Press in the UK. “Michael Maloco, senior partner with local solicitors and estate agents maloco + associates, acknowledged there were tough times ahead but he and his colleagues believe a slowdown could benefit those struggling to get on the property ladder. ‘To pretend differently would be misleading and, frankly, stupid. Likewise, to predict as some in the media have that we are on the verge of a 2008-type collapse in the property market is, we think, equally wrong.'”

“Laura Mowat, the firm’s head of conveyancing, said demand for homes remained strong. ‘This imbalance has driven prices higher and higher in the last 18 months and there’s still a striking mismatch between supply and demand with the latter swamping the former. That simply can’t go on and indeed we welcome some sanity returning to the market even if as the result of a bit of an economic shock. We predict that values may soften a little by perhaps a few percentage points. What is likely to change is the actual sale prices properties achieve. The days of buyers paying 10 and 20 per cent-plus over home report are, we think, coming to an end ‘”

From Bloomberg. “Property in Gangnam — a trio of exclusive districts in South Korea’s capital, Seoul — is beginning to buckle as the central bank’s yearlong tightening cycle weighs on the luxury real estate market. Apartment prices in all Gangnam districts have declined for four consecutive weeks, data from the Korea Real Estate Board show, portending the first monthly decline since the Bank of Korea began raising its key rate last August. The hit to Gangnam signals the impact of policy tightening is now reaching into the upper stratum of Korea’s 51 million people.”

“The incipient correction in luxury homes isn’t limited to Gangnam, either. The 50 premium homes picked nationwide by Kookmin Bank have fallen for two months in a row, according to data released last week. Now, as home prices begin to fall, the tables are turning. But potential buyers aren’t rushing to brokers to try to secure a property. The BOK’s rate rises and expectations of further tightening, together with the low volume of deals, are fueling expectations the downturn will be protracted. ‘With households starting a deleveraging cycle, we expect housing prices to remain under pressure in coming years,’ said Park Jeong Woo, an economist at Nomura Holdings Inc.”

The Sydney Morning Herald in Australia. “The Reserve Bank has increased official interest rates for a record fifth consecutive month, lifting them by another half of a percentage point as it races to bring inflation under control. Since the RBA started lifting rates in May, the cumulative increase in repayments is now more than $1000 a month on an $800,000 loan. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the rate rise would be difficult news for many Australians, despite being widely expected.”

“‘The bank had flagged more increases, the markets had anticipated and homeowners were expecting it as well, but the fact that we knew it was coming doesn’t make it any easier for people,’ he said during question time. ‘This will tighten the screws on family budgets. This will put more pressure on a lot of Australians who are already stretched.'”

“The Greens’ treasury and economic justice spokesman, Nick McKim, said RBA governor Philip Lowe should resign as governor for ‘misleading Australians about interest rate rises.’ ‘Dr Lowe induced hundreds of thousands of Australians into taking out massive mortgages by effectively saying that interest rates would not rise until 2024,’ he said. ‘Having failed to keep that commitment, he should now resign. The preconditions that Philip Lowe set for increasing rates have not been met.'”

ABC News in Australia. “Danial Khan and his partner bought their first home in Sydney’s outer-west in January 2021, when rates were at rock-bottom levels and the property market was strong. Their mortgage repayments have since gone up from just under 3 per cent to almost 5 per cent. ‘The monthly repayments have been quite substantial since the [rate] jump,’ Mr Khan said. ‘We’ve just done a whole revamp of our expenses, making sure we’re not spending on unnecessary things.'”

“That has meant ditching some streaming services and other subscriptions, but Mr Khan is now turning his mind to other ways the couple can save money. ‘I understand that interest rates going up are because they want to manage the economy well, but increasing them quite a lot might cause a lot of people to have major lifestyle changes,’ he said. ‘The interest rates might increase to help the economy, but I would ask at what cost?'”

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This Post Has 120 Comments

  1. FYI I only have two videos and one wouldn’t embed, so I’ll just post them here:

    WOW! | Arizona Real Estate Market
    Rick McHone
    Sep 4, 2022 Prices made a quick move down in the Arizona real estate market since May. How far and how fast that slide continues will be interesting.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZJNneG4QEg

    9:37.

    Sep 4, 2022 Foreclosures are piling up! What could this mean for Colorado? If there is a housing bubble this could cause it to pop as nearly 2 million homes are eligible for foreclosure.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwQxbakxaQI

    1:30.

  2. ‘lingering variants won’t stop, well, lingering’

    Nobody is buying that crap anymore. It’s empty (except for bums) cuz it’s a sh$thole. These people set out to destroy cities when the commies took over. Are you just going to stand there and let them?

  3. ‘it’s still a seller’s market, but it’s more of a normal market, with much less of the ‘crazy behavior’ of the past few years when buyers bid up the price of houses and it was not uncommon for sellers to get half a dozen offers or more. ‘There’s not many multiple-offer situations right now’

    Hey Jerry, have you noticed these insanity over asking things in Lansing and Lincoln? Were they CCP virus boomtowns? It seems like there are a lot of them:

    ‘That simply can’t go on and indeed we welcome some sanity returning to the market even if as the result of a bit of an economic shock. We predict that values may soften a little by perhaps a few percentage points. What is likely to change is the actual sale prices properties achieve. The days of buyers paying 10 and 20 per cent-plus over home report are, we think, coming to an end’

    I’ve never heard of this town before.

  4. ‘You’ll get a much better opportunity to buy a home six, 12, 18, 24, 36 months from now’ – doom and gloomer Ho Chi Zandi.

      1. Remember all those AAA ratings that all three of the ratings agencies gave to toxic-waste crap bundled into mortgage-backed securities that Gold Sachs unloaded on its “muppet” retail investor “clients”? No one ever went to prison for that fraud, naturally.

  5. ‘Dr Lowe induced hundreds of thousands of Australians into taking out massive mortgages by effectively saying that interest rates would not rise until 2024′

    You say that like it’s a bad thing Nick. These people are winnahs!

    ‘Having failed to keep that commitment, he should now resign’

    That’ll teach him. Get back in yer limo and tell yer driver ‘back to the mansion’!

  6. ‘While some will take this as a sign that the real estate market is about to crash, this simply is not the case,’ he wrote.

    Realtors are liars.

  7. ‘When I drive through this neighborhood now, I don’t know what my kids are going to see, but more importantly I don’t know how I’m going to explain to my kids what they’re seeing’

    Don’t worry Monica, the hairy pedophiles giving yer kids a lap dance at school will explain it.

  8. 5280 in Colorado. “If you’ve spent time downtown recently, you may have noticed it feels different: quieter, emptier, less vibrant.

    No, it’s more vibrant. That’s why the honest portion of the population is staying away.

  9. What’s the biggest challenge facing downtown Denver right now? Kourtny Garrett, CEO of the Downtown Denver Partnership: ‘Bringing people back. In a matter of 24 to 48 hours in March 2020, we lost just over 100,000 people from our downtown core.’”

    Kourtny with a K is a shill for Denver’s Democrat-Bolshevik apparatchiks. Her ideological blinders prevent her from saying WHY 100,000 people voted with their feet to escape Communism and the bountiful blessings of multiculturalism.

  10. ‘I don’t know how long I can stay.’ Business is down 60% from before the COVID pandemic, she said. ‘It used to be good.’”

    Democrat-Bolsheviks ruin everything they touch.

    2. Just listened to this song at the little beach in Safety Harbor yesterday.

      I remember being duped into the Anti-Apertheid movement by much of the ska from that era. I realized I had been had when I was out of college and had subscribed to the JBS New American magazine. On the cover of one of the issues was Nelson Mendela with the backdrop of their new flag with the hammer and cycle https://i.ytimg.com/vi/G9DtmQuWX2o/maxresdefault.jpg

      Now listening to the the chants of ‘Kill the Boer’ (kill replaced with ‘kiss’) and one realizes these degenerates are and have never been capable of building. They only destroy.

  12. Likewise, to predict as some in the media have that we are on the verge of a 2008-type collapse in the property market is, we think, equally wrong.’”

    Yeah, about that…Suzanne’s research failed to predict the implosion of Housing Bubble 1.0, if memory serves.

        1. “This listing is special. You guys can do this.” Not a twinge of conscience as she leads to the two FBs down the primrose path. Note this ad came out just a few months before Housing Bubble 1.0 imploded like a supernova, meaning our henpecked husband and his harridan of a wife met their financial Waterloo thanks to the always-fatal error of trusting a realtor with a vested financial stake in “Always Be Closing.”

  13. ‘We’ve just done a whole revamp of our expenses, making sure we’re not spending on unnecessary things…I understand that interest rates going up are because they want to manage the economy well, but increasing them quite a lot might cause a lot of people to have major lifestyle changes…The interest rates might increase to help the economy, but I would ask at what cost?’

    We’re all in this together Danial. Now put down that avocado sammie and start begging!

      1. I just can’t see myself borrowing those kinds of sums with a variable rate loan. Any return to interest rate normalcy means only one thing: insolvency and bankruptcy.

      2. “Gold is the money of kings, silver is the money of gentlemen, barter is the money of peasants – but debt is the money of slaves.” – Norm Franz, Money & Wealth in the New Millennium: A Prophetic Guide to the New World Economic Order

  14. ‘This will tighten the screws on family budgets. This will put more pressure on a lot of Australians who are already stretched.’”

    Nobody forced these FBs to buy into an insane housing bubble, or to elect a globalist Quisling government that gave the RBA free rein to inflate with wild abandon.

  15. If you want to know what’s coming next from our creepy Orwellian tech companies, just watch their Chinese counterparts. The Brandon regime and its globalist oligarch puppetmasters will waste no time rolling out such measures here once they’re perfected by their CCP mentors.

    Chinese Social Media Sites Are Quietly Putting Digital Fingerprints on Screenshots

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/qjk3vm/chinese-social-media-watermarks-zhihu-douban

    It is a move to stop Chinese users from sharing sensitive data on foreign platforms, an analyst says.

  16. You can put up with arbitrary, capricious Communist malgovernance, or you can overthrow it. Your choice.

    The Chinese Public Doesn’t Know What the Rules Are Anymore

    https://dnyuz.com/2022/09/05/the-chinese-public-doesnt-know-what-the-rules-are-anymore/

    The Chinese public is floundering.

    All around ordinary people, the iron laws of China’s state capitalism that they once trusted are crumbling: The price of housing, believed for decades to keep rising, fell for the first time in six years this spring in more than half of China’s biggest cities. A college education, once considered a stepping stone into the middle class, has now become a major contributor to mass unemployment, with youth unemployment hitting 19.9 percent in July. The migration from countryside to cities used to be a one-way journey; this year, jobless migrant workers who ran out of savings have no recourse but to return to the land.

    People who thought they knew how the rules worked are left bruised and betrayed. Some have resorted to rare acts of public defiance: In July, tens of thousands of homebuyers staged a mortgage strike over apartments whose construction has been delayed or stalled by a housing sector cash crunch. In the same month, hundreds of people launched protests in Henan province over frozen deposits in rural banks that risked insolvency.

  18. “The average sales price for multifamily and single-family homes in the 11-county metro Denver area dropped 5.93% to $657,284 in August compared to the previous month.”

    1-(1-0.0593)^12 = 52% annualized rate of price decline.

    My sister’s condo is most likely draining alot of home equity wealth gains…

    2. You worry too much PB.

      Denver Post is busy with articles on how to get student loan forgiveness and how wonderful it is. All these folks now have $$$s to move downtown Denver and buy.

      1. I’m not worried at all, even about my sister. She owns her condo free and clear, and has a pension. She’ll be fine, no matter what happens to prices.

        My siblings and I tend to avoid leverage like the plague.

  19. The Lincoln Journal Star. “Mark Faatz, an agent with Nebraska Realty, said it’s still a seller’s market, but it’s more of a normal market, with much less of the ‘crazy behavior’ of the past few years when buyers bid up the price of houses and it was not uncommon for sellers to get half a dozen offers or more. ‘There’s not many [any?] multiple-offer situations right now,’ Faatz said.”

    – Realtors are salespersons. Paid on commission. The higher the price, the higher their commission. Are they really interested in getting a good deal for either party, or maximizing commission?
    – Not going to hear about falling prices until it’s mainstream.
    – 6% is ridiculous.
    – There will be a lot fewer Realtors soon as the Fed’s easy $ spigot is being turned off. #LearnToCode.

    1. “…buyers bid up the price of houses and it was not uncommon for sellers to get half a dozen offers or more.”

      I remember lots of bid wars in California during the previous bubble top, but none in Lincoln, Nebraska.

      Got contagion?

    1. Markets
      CNBC TV
      Watchlist
      LIVE UPDATES
      Updated Tue, Sep 6 2022
      10:30 AM EDT
      Dow drops 200 points on Tuesday, continuing recent losses as interest rates surge
      Carmen Reinicke
      Samantha Subin

      U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday, continuing a three-week losing trend, as bond rates surged, raising fears the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening campaign will end in pain for the economy.

      The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 208 points, or 0.66% reversing an earlier move higher. The S&P 500 slid 0.74% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.18%, weighed down by tech stocks reversing earlier gains, such as Apple, Tesla, Nvidia and Microsoft.

      Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond slipped more than 14% following news that CFO Gustavo Arnal died by suicide Friday, adding to days of losses. FedEx slumped more than 2.6% after Citi downgraded the company and slashed its price target. U.S. markets were closed Monday due to the Labor Day holiday.

      At the same time, bond yields surged, adding to the rout in stocks. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury jumped as much as 0.15 percentage point as investors sold bonds. Yields move inversely to prices.

      The moves came after August ISM data Tuesday morning was stronger than expected, coming in at 56.9 versus expectations of 55.5. The report follows Friday’s jobs release, which also beat Wall Street’s expectations, showing a more solid U.S. economy than anticipated.

      Both reports come ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, where they’re expected to raise interest rates again. Better-than-expected economic data may mean that the central bank continues to act aggressively in hiking interest rates.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/05/stock-futures-rise-after-major-averages-post-third-week-of-losses.html

      1. It seems like poor Mr Market just can’t get a break! Wall Street fluffers pump up market prospects, only to see them crushed in an avalanche of selling.

        1. Stock Market Today: Stocks Drop After Labor Day Holiday
          The Wall Street Journal’s full markets coverage.
          Sep 6, 2022 at 1:30 pm ET
          Today’s Developments

          It’s been a wishy-washy start to the trading week, with the trend looking downbeat as of early afternoon.

          Stocks moved between small gains and losses as traders returned to their desks after the Labor Day holiday. All three U.S. indexes opened higher Tuesday, then gave up those gains; they were recently all in negative territory.

          Meanwhile, the dollar is rising against currencies including the Japanese yen and the euro.
          …

        2. 7 hours ago
          Treasury Bonds Extend Rout in Tuesday Trading
          By Eric Wallerstein
          – Shorter-term bond yields remain at the highest level since November 2007.
          – Global bonds on Friday entered the first bear market since at least 1990.

          A bond-market selloff sparked by fears of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening continued in early Tuesday trading.

          Yields initially rose Friday after the release of fresh economic data, though the move retraced throughout the day.

          The two-year Treasury yield rose Tuesday to 3.513% from Friday’s 3.398%. Longer-term bonds led the selloff, with the 10-year yield advancing to 3.336% from 3.190%. Yields rise as prices fall.

          September also marks an acceleration in the central bank’s runoff plan for its balance sheet built up during quantitative easing. The last time the Fed attempted to decrease its holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities markets (September 2019), it was forced to prevent a credit crisis by stepping in to support overnight lending markets.
          …

      2. “The moves came after August ISM data Tuesday morning was stronger than expected, coming in at 56.9 versus expectations of 55.5. The report follows Friday’s jobs release, which also beat Wall Street’s expectations, showing a more solid U.S. economy than anticipated.

        Both reports come ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, where they’re expected to raise interest rates again. Better-than-expected economic data may mean that the central bank continues to act aggressively in hiking interest rates.”

        Says it all right there. Good economic fundamentals are bearish because the printing press might slow down. The broken window fallacy rules the world now.

    2. The stock market has been in free fall since the Fed said ‘pain was coming.’ Morgan Stanley says buckle up for another drop
      BY Will Daniel
      September 6, 2022 at 10:07 AM PDT
      Traders work during the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on August 16, 2022 at Wall Street in New York City
      Traders at the New York Stock Exchange in August 2022.
      Angela Weiss—AFP/Getty Images

      “Fire and ice” isn’t just a show about dragons and zombies on HBO. It’s been Michael J. Wilson’s vision of the stock market throughout 2022.

      Wilson, the chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, has argued that stocks are fighting a toxic combination of economic headwinds—which he calls “fire” and “ice”—that are set to keep equity prices subdued until late 2023.

      The stock market’s summer rally was cut short last month as investors digested a reaffirmation of the Federal Reserve’s hawkish inflation-fighting stance around the same time Europe’s energy crisis took a turn for the worse. But even after a roughly 9% drop in the S&P 500 since mid-August, Wilson says buyers should (still) beware.

      In a Tuesday research note, the CIO noted that his fire and ice moniker has “proven to be an effective way to describe the first half of this year,” and he expects that will continue to be the case through December.

      Wilson believes the stock market is set to experience “fire and ice, Part 2” over the coming months after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at an annual central bank symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., last week.

      Powell argued some “pain” may be required to get consumer prices under control over the next year, and economists noted that asset prices (including stock prices) will need to fall to achieve that goal. The S&P 500 sank more than 5% in the days following Powell’s comments, and Wilson says it was just the start.

      Fire and ice, Part 2

      While some market pundits and investment advisers made the case that the stock rally was a buying opportunity over the summer, Wilson has contended it was nothing but a trap for investors all along.

      His argument was, and is, based on the idea that inflation and the Fed’s attempts to combat it with interest rate hikes act as “fire” against stocks, significantly lowering their valuations. Rising interest rates raise the cost of borrowing for corporations as well, making it more difficult for them to invest in their future growth and turn a profit.

      And at the same time, slowing economic growth, or “ice,” is pulling down consumer spending, and by extension corporate earning potential.

      All of these headwinds are bad news for stocks, and Wilson argues they aren’t going away anytime soon. The CIO pointed to Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole, which “emphatically” dashed investors’ hopes for a “dovish pivot” to interest rate cuts last month amid a weakening global economy.

      Wilson also lowered his earnings forecasts for the S&P 500 on Tuesday, arguing that slowing economic growth and “sticky cost pressures, particularly on the labor side” owing to higher wages will compress corporate profit margins moving forward.

      He went on to note that the second half of the year should be “more Icy than Fiery as slowing growth becomes the bigger concern for stocks, rather than inflation and the Fed” as well. All of this means the bear market is far from over.

      “While acknowledging the poor performance in equities year to date, we do not think the bear market is over if our earnings forecasts are correct,” Wilson wrote.

      Wilson’s “minimum downside” for the S&P 500 in 2022 is roughly 13% below current levels at 3,400, while a low of 3,000 (or 23% below current levels) is possible by year-end “if a recession arrives.”
      …
      https://fortune.com/2022/09/06/stock-market-freefall-since-fed-said-pain-coming-morgan-stanley-mike-wilson-buckle-up-for-another-drop/

    3. Updated Wed, Sep 7 2022 1:14 AM EDT
      Stock futures lower after another day of losses amid a surge in Treasury yields
      Tanaya Macheel
      50/50 chance new bear market low is ahead, Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel says

      Stock futures were slightly lower Wednesday morning after the major averages added to weeks of losses amid a jump in bond yields.

      Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were lower by 115 points. S&P 500 futures edged slightly lower by 0.37% and Nasdaq 100 futures were also 0.31% lower.

      Stocks added to their three-week slide in regular trading. The Dow fell about 173 points or 0.5%, and the S&P 500 slid 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.7% to notch its first seven-day losing streak since 2016.

      The moves came amid a surge in bond yields that saw the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jump to its highest level since June. The rate on the 30-year Treasury closed at its highest level since 2014. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

      Investors are split on how to approach the market entering the first post-Labor Day week in September, a notoriously cruel month for stocks. All eyes are on the 3,900 level on the S&P 500. Some see the index falling to even lower lows, while others are optimistic about a year-end rally.

      “It is the battleground,” NewEdge Wealth’s chief investment officer Cameron Dawson, said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime.” “It was resistance and support, and anytime you have these places where you have a lot of consolidation of resistance and support, we’re going to see a lot of fighting to see where we push either above or below it.”

      “If we hold 3,900, that is a bullish signal,” she added. “That means the market is sniffing out some change in liquidity, willing to put a higher multiple on things on a sustainable basis… If we don’t, then that 3,600 is in play in short order.”
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/06/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

    4. The Financial Times
      2 hours ago 22:06
      Asian stocks fall, dollar strength continues
      William Langley in Hong Kong

      Asian stocks and oil prices fell while the dollar rose on Wednesday as growing concerns over the health of the global economy hit investor sentiment.

      Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was down 1.7 per cent at the midday break, while Japan’s Topix and South Korea’s Kospi were down 1.8 and 0.9 per cent respectively. China’s CSI 300 was flat.

      Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, declined 1.5 per cent to trade at $91.48 and West Texas Intermediate fell 1.8 per cent to $85.33.

      The falls were accentuated by a surging dollar, triggered by a climb in US bond yields on Tuesday. The yen lost 0.8 per cent against the greenback to trade at ¥143.95 per dollar, while the renminbi fell 0.3 per cent to Rmb6.97.

      Global equities have been falling over the past week and a half as traders focus on the prospect of sustained high interest rates despite an economic slowdown. Concerns deepened on Wednesday after China posted worse than expected trade figures for August.

      In the US on Tuesday, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7 per cent, for a seventh consecutive session of declines. The S&P 500 index slid 0.4 per cent. The US moves were an indication of investors now thinking the Fed’s benchmark interest rate will climb to almost 4 per cent by next March.

      European futures also pointed lower on Wednesday, with contracts for the FTSE 100 and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1 per cent and 1.3 per cent respectively.

      European stocks have struggled in recent days amid growing concerns over the region’s energy crisis. Moscow has said it would suspend gas supplies via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline until the west lifted sanctions imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
      …

    5. The Financial Times
      Markets Briefing Capital markets
      US Treasuries sell off as upbeat data sharpen Fed rate rise fears
      Yield on the 30-year bond hits highest level since 2014, while equities cede further ground
      The US Treasury building
      The yield on 10-year and two-year Treasury notes rose after a closely watched survey showed that services activity had outpaced economists’ expectations
      Harriet Clarfelt and Ian Johnston in London and Nicholas Megaw in New York 8 hours ago

      US stocks and government bond prices dropped on Tuesday after an upbeat survey on the country’s vast services industry fuelled expectations of further big interest rate rises by the Federal Reserve.

      The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, seen as a proxy for borrowing costs around the world, rose 0.15 percentage points to 3.34 per cent, while the yield on the 30-year bond surged to its highest level since 2014. The sell-off in the $23tn US government debt market was widespread, with the yield on the policy sensitive two-year note climbing 0.11 percentage points to 3.50 per cent. Bond yields rise as their prices fall.

      Meanwhile, the tech-dominated Nasdaq Composite fell for a seventh consecutive session, its longest losing streak since November 2016. The index fell 0.7 per cent, while the broader S&P 500 index slid 0.4 per cent.

      Those moves, which followed a public holiday in the US on Monday, became more emphatic after a closely watched Institute for Supply Management survey showed that services activity had outpaced economists’ expectations, registering a reading of 56.9 in August compared with forecasts of 55.1 and July’s figure of 56.7. Any figure above 50 signals expansion. Growth in business activity and new orders both accelerated last month, the report said.

      The data, following on from a robust labour market report last week, encouraged investors to further crank up their projections of how far and fast the Fed will lift borrowing costs to tame inflation.

      Futures markets show investors think the Fed’s benchmark interest rate will climb to almost 4 per cent by next March. In late July, the same measure showed expectations of less than 3.2 per cent.

      Markets are pricing in a 75 per cent likelihood that the Fed will lift rates by 0.75 percentage points at its late September meeting, which would mark the third consecutive increase of such magnitude. The central bank’s current target range stands at 2.25 to 2.50 per cent.

      Analysts at Citi said the ISM survey “points to a resilient services side of the economy, despite pressure from high prices and continued difficulties hiring workers.

      “This should keep the Fed pursuing a still-hawkish stance with a [0.75 percentage point] hike in September, as the inflationary pressure in services looks more indicative of tight labour markets with less feed- through of commodity shocks.”
      …

  22. A reader sent these in:

    Sure feels like the market has completely stalled out in North Carolina beach cities. There’s also no rhyme or reason to pricing. Comparable houses practically next door to each other with list prices 25% apart. Look out below.

    https://twitter.com/ChrisUnits/status/1566772335595732992

    John Burns

    The change in home buying sentiment has been most dramatic in Texas.

    https://twitter.com/johnburnsjbrec/status/1566849284997259267

    Seeing more & more small businesses including restaurants closing in our local area. They see massive increases in their new energy supply contacts & simply can’t afford to stay open. The double hits of Covid & now inflation being too much. This is a disaster in the making.

    https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1566428450050785287

    The ECB has waited so long and is so far behind the inflation curve they are literally forced to raise rates inside a recession. I can’t think of a great policy mismatch in history.

    https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1566766509875253249

    The economy is fine. In fact, buying conditions have never been better. 😜 Buying conditions : 3 month moving average:

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1566886385990225921

    I told y’all once a housing crisis starts it happens fast. It begins with a stalemate where buyers won’t buy and sellers won’t sell as affordability drops. Then a few sellers start to blink and drop prices. Once that starts happening the bottom drops out.

    https://twitter.com/StealthQE4/status/1566894841329500169

    1. Comparable houses practically next door to each other with list prices 25% apart. Look out below.

      My friend’s neighbor took their house off the market with no offers as bigger, nicer houses on larger lots came onto the market for $50k to $100k less, making their house look like an overpriced POS by comparison. They were trying to clear $300k from their original purchase price 2 years ago, so had major wiggle room. But…..”not gonna give it away…..”

    2. Sure feels like the market has completely stalled out in North Carolina beach cities.

      I’ve been to Emerald Isle. The prices are insane, especially when you consider that the beach houses are not desirable outside of summer. And the inventory is simply huge, the island is over 20 miles long,. Plus those houses require tons of maintenance and I’ll bet they cost a tidy fortune to insure. Property tax must be a nightmare too.

  23. “Property in Gangnam — a trio of exclusive districts in South Korea’s capital, Seoul — is beginning to buckle as the central bank’s yearlong tightening cycle weighs on the luxury real estate market.”

    Real estate CR8R… Gangnam Style…

          1. The song, dance and video are very catchy. As I re-watch it, it’s withstood the test of time.

  24. The technology of computers was suppose to create a advancement in having information at your fingertips.
    But now its subjected to censorship, and a means to broadcast the current “narrative” , or next mass psychosis social engineering event.
    A technology being used for surveillance, where the end game is human hacking for enslavement and control of all activities of humanity.
    Vaccine passports and Climate Change tyranny , used as the fake narratives to introduce the new means of slavery.
    The Great Reset , forth industrial revolution, One World Order, take over of the free World.
    Shocking, that a technology that seemed so liberating , is being twisted into a prison cell. Shocking that under the illusion of health policy and saving lives , they want to inject you, than inject you, than inject you again.
    They aren’t using tanks and rockets for this invasion, they are using fake emergencies, like Climate Change and invisible viruses.
    You have to give up all that sustains survival , to save the earth, so this small group of humanity hating psychopaths can have their Stakeholder utopia.
    The Governments of the world, including US, are in on this One World order take over, as shocking as that is.
    Biden has already labeled MAGA Republicans ,enemies of State, fascist, destroyers of democracy, freedoms etc.
    The funny one was Biden said that Republicans didn’t respect the Constitution, or the right to love who you want. No Biden, you can’t groom children sexually, that isn’t love.
    They think they got us trapped , and we won’t be able to stop this takeover. That humanity is going to settle for enslavement, tyranny, deprivation , and genocide.
    Taking on the whole of humanity, billions of people , is the fatal flaw arrogance of these Stakeholder hijackers .
    No way

  25. Sep 6, 2022 August 2022 Stats for Single Family Homes in Santa Clara County are here!

    As the Bay Area housing market continues its shift away from the HOT seller’s market experienced 1st half of this year, we are seeing signs that we have already entered the start of the Fall seasonal market trends that usually begin in September; with inventory beginning to deplete as we head toward the holiday season and finish out 2022. Let’s dive in to review stats and discuss.

    Active homes DECREASED by 13% from July with now, just over 1,200 Single Family Homes available on market. Pending and Sold Sales went UP by 22% and 16% respectively. This direction reversal from July tells us that buyers have adjusted to the rise in interest rates and are still motivated to make a home purchase.

    Most folks wrapped up their summer vacations, kids got back to school, and buyers are educating themselves to understand the benefit of homeownership, even as the FED continues to battle inflation and the possibility of a recession. Buyers are learning that there are a variety of loan packages available along with better room to negotiate with sellers since the market shift in June; making for a more normalized housing trade market. Although we are still seeing multiple bidding on homes that are priced well in this shifted market, the days of extravagant overbidding from fair market value is gone.

    This is evidence in the Average Sales Price for SFHs having decreased by 9% from this time last month, now sitting just UNDER $2ML. The Average Price/SF decreased by 3%, now resting at $1,045/SF; and the List to Sold Price Ratio, down by 1% from last month, translating into homes now selling closer to offer and even slightly under the seller’s offer price.

    Buyers continued to take their time to review inventory through the month of August, even with inventory decreasing from last month. The Average Days on Market bumped up by another 14%, translating into 3 days more than July, with homes taking an average of 24 days to get into contract in August. This could also be due to August remaining busy from vacations and new school year preparations – it will be interesting to watch this stat next month once school is in full session and if inventory continues to fade as we work through the Fall season.

    Sellers spent August understanding and adjusting to the reality of the shifted market by either reducing their offer price if found outside the new trading range or removing their home from market if their motivation to sell was already low or depleted from having missed the overbidding frenzy that took place earlier in the year.

    This is evidenced in the Months’ Worth of Inventory having gone down 24% from July, back under 2 months’ worth. Bay Area sellers are savvy enough to know that if they don’t HAVE to make a move right now, but want to sell within the next year, waiting until the new year when inventory is usually at its lowest will give them a better opportunity to glean top dollar at the start of 2023.

    The 30 year Conforming Fixed Mortgage Rate, as noted by Bankrate, rose by 6% from this time last month, translating into a little over a 3rd of a point higher – currently resting just under 6%.

    Sellers, if you are indeed motivated and need to sell your home now, there are excellent strategies for obtaining top dollar in this current market. I just recently sold a home that wouldn’t sell with another agent, was on market for 52 days during the market shift and was consistently getting low-ball offers, even lower than what current fair market value should have gleaned. I presented and implemented an organized, strategic plan to the seller and within 8 days of the home coming to market we had 75 groups through the property, 10 offers with most of them over the offer price and landed at the higher trading end of current fair market value with a very pleased and relieved seller! Having a strategic, diligent, trustworthy realtor experienced with shifting markets is key; especially now!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1z4Mt_XrGWY&t=14s

    8:17.

  26. Unhappy to repeat the news that in Canada its gone from 28 to 30 sudden deaths of Doctors , following the 4 shots mandated vaccine protocol in that Country.

    Come on US Doctors and nurses, , is it worth it to save your job, , than end up
    dead or injured.
    If you won’t rebel in mass to save your patients , ,from harm, at least do it to save yourself for God Sakes.
    You didn’t go into medicine to be a stooge for Big Pharmaceutical genocide.

    2. Well, at least the families have the recently deceased’s TikTok videos of them dancing, getting their shots, and encouraging others to do the same.

      Ah, memories

    3. Unhappy to repeat the news that in Canada its gone from 28 to 30 sudden deaths of Doctors

      And those are the ones they couldn’t memory hole.

  27. “Lansing broker Heather Driscoll said it’s in the process of cooling off. ‘It has somewhat evened out I would say,’ she said. According to Driscoll, the average home price for the area was around $255,000 during the time of the hot market and that price is now dwindling. ‘And we are seeing a little bit lower than that, we’re seeing about $200,000 to $225,000,’ she adds.”

    20% drop is “cooling off” and “evened out”. Gotta love relitters.

  29. Diana Olick just on CNBC. They are starting to get worried – avg mortgage rates at 6.25%. Means $680/month more just in finance costs from a year ago. The host made sure to mention $200 more in energy costs, not to mention inflation. Oops – Diana should not have been pumping up residential real estate the past few months.

    2. It could be worse, at least we aren’t in Europe, though Clownifornia tries its best to imitate it. Speaking of which, there is a rolling black out scheduled in Santa Clara today at 4PM Pacific time. I need to log out of my servers by then.

        1. Don’t know. A blast-o-gram was sent out saying that the Santa Clara campus is going dark at 4PM. All my machines are there.

          1. you were right IC,
            Hopefully our co-workers in the Bay will not have power loss.

            Around 5:30 p.m. PT, the California Independent System Operator issued a level 3 alert — its highest-level energy emergency alert before instituting rolling blackouts. The alert will stay in effect until 8 p.m. the agency said.

            “The ISO is anticipating high loads and temperatures across the CASISO grid,” the grid operator said in its alert. “CAISO is forecasting an energy deficiency with all available resources in use for the specified time period. Maximum conservation efforts are urged.”

  30. Signs point to cooling of South Florida’s red-hot real estate market
    CBS Miami
    Sep 5, 2022 Not as many houses have sold in the last few months and inventory is up, and since interest rates started rising, prospective buyers are not as plentiful.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNZNOxvLyGY

    2:44. Some seriously overpriced shacks in this one.

  31. some of you guys got me looking at some futures. Just for reference at 1:30 EST.

    Lumber at $465
    Bitcoin at $19116

    Oops – hope that it wasnt pension funds speculating and just GS crushing Muppets.

    Well i guess we can pin hopes on the Apple launch tomorrow and folks buy $7 coffees at Starbucks.

    1. Lumber futures twin peaks looks about vaporized. Another fall by half would be about right.

      I know a few people who built or contracted to build at pandemic prices. Ouch.

      1. Do you know what % of an overall house cost is lumber?

        I found the following from Western Canada – but dont know if it is applicable to the entire continent

        Lumber material costs make up only about four per cent of a new home’s price, according to the analysis. Labour accounted for 50 per cent of new home costs, followed by mechanical, electrical, heating, cooling and plumbing accounting for 22 per cent, and foundation work accounting for five per cent of the cost.

        1. make up only about four per cent of a new home’s price

          In the one case it was a house contracted to be built on his owned land, so take out the “developer” profit and maybe it’s 6%. Others could comment better, but if it’s a $500,000 house 6% is $30K. I assume your rule of thumb is a heritage one. If lumber and plywood go up 4X in the scaredemic/bubble, that’s an extra $90K. Not exactly chump change and have fun paying that off over 30 years at interest.

          The second instance is a huge deck complex capable of a personal amusement park (exaggerating). Contracted at the height and about to start this week! Tears of joy.

          On the other hand, my son built a shed at the farm. I had enough materials left over from my project house that I told him to just take it. The 2x4a cost me something like $1US apiece. He found some 100 year old Honduras Mahogany at a death sale and brought me a truckload. Cost to him less than a load of pine at the lumber yard. I guess that makes us peasants. My storage space is no longer freed up.

        2. Do you know what % of an overall house cost is lumber?

          For our build lumber materials are estimated at ~10% of the overall build cost, including builder fee. That excludes the land.

          1. I should note that was priced a while back (back in Mar maybe?). I expect at this point it should be considerably lower

  32. Is the Real Estate Market Crashing!?!? August 2022 – Dripping Springs TX Real Estate Market Update
    Sep 6, 2022 So what’s happening here in our Dripping Springs TX Real Estate Market and the Austin TX Real Estate Market? The news is putting out click bait articles and everyone wants to know, are we in a housing bubble? Should you still consider buying? Is it still a good time to sell? Like I always do, let’s talk about the actual DATA so you can become better educated on the market. In Dripping Springs we currently at the time of this video we have 268 homes that are active. But I like to point out, 106 of those are new construction so there are 162 homes that can be moved in to in 30 days. The average time to sell is 43 days right now. BUT, homes are still selling, on average at 99.3% of their list price. And there are still multiple offers happening on unique homes. Now I realize, this is not what we saw over the past 2 years when homes were flying off the market and selling for WAY more than list price, but, the last 2 years were not a normal market. The recent adjustments that everyone is worried about are simply NORMALIZING the market. So, is it a good time to sell in Dripping Springs and the Austin area still? The answer is yes, absolutely. Pricing appropriately is key, but values are still at an all time high. Now, that fact and high interest rates may make some buyers weary, but this shift is ALSO giving buyers opportunities they didn’t have over the past few years. The chance to actually NEGOTIATE on a home purchase instead of being locked in bidding wars should be very appealing! And as the data shows, prices are still on the rise so if buyers don’t buy now, they are going to lose even MORE purchasing power moving forward.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mahzV-pwbIQ

    2:51. He he…’we have 268 homes that are active. But I like to point out, 106 of those are new construction so there are 162 homes that can be moved in to in 30 days’

    1. locked in bidding wars

      That was voluntary as well as stupid. So would be buying at near peak bubble “list” prices with interest rates rising. Way worse if it’s not loose change for you but a lifetime of debt service.

      Real Estate/Mortgage sellers are modern day slavers.

      1. We already know the “bidding wars” was a complete fabrication. I know someone who fell for it and is now considering litigating.

  33. “Nord Stream” – Thousands of Germans in Magdeburg chant in opposition of sanctions against Russia

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/kU4FdVUbFimZ/

    9 seconds. I was thinking about how childish this situation is. You have people who need heat this winter. There is gas for sale. Just buy the got-dam gas and get through the winter.

    1. Citizen! Our smart meter indicates you are failing to take cold showers to stand with Ukraine. Your social credit score has been forwarded to Google for review & downgrade.

      2. But they had him ring the little bell at the opening of trading today! You know the one that signifies the start of the days crime spree. He also took the opportunity to beg for more money. In hindsight this will probably have been a historic ringer. How do they top that??

    3. Don’t a lot of historians say that the act of cutting off gas from Japan was what compelled the attack on Pearl Harbor.

      The insanity of expecting people to freeze or starve over some corrupt puppet Government like Ukraine.
      The insanity of Climate Change cut off of fuel, with no viable replacement.
      World wide famine for what exactly?
      What could be deemed a greater emergency than famine, freezing and death to millions that would supersede any
      Climate Change agenda that is obviously not upon us, or even proven to be a threat.

      .

    4. You have people who need heat this winter. There is gas for sale. Just buy the got-dam gas and get through the winter.

      I believe that a German minister said the other day that Germany supports Ukraine, and the government doesn’t care what citizens think or need. I also doubt Klaus and his Davos friends care a whit about how much Europe will suffer this winter.

      Simple protests won’t cut it, the tyrants will just ignore them. It will take a Sri Lanka style of uprising to stop this.

      2. Your right that they ignore protests, and they hardly cover protests on main news , unless its one of their protests.

        The White House again back peddles on Biden Hitler like speech by saying he meant
        MAGA leaders and elected officials .
        So the attack has shifted to the duly elected representatives of over half the Country , and of course Trump.
        So, I guess that means if your not a Republican fake R-I-N-O, like Liz Cheney, you a enemy of the State extreme fascist.

        Also information coming out that Biden did order FBI raid on Trump.
        All this coming from a guy that didn’t really win the 2020 election.

  35. Vallejo, CA Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Double Digit Prices Declines And Plunging Rental Rates Blanket Bay Area

    https://www.movoto.com/ca/94592/market-trends/

    As one broker conceded, “What you don’t know is this business is riddled with lies, deceit and betrayal. Don’t expect anything else from a gang of ex-cons and malevolents.”

  37. You’re 28 years old, cancelling your tour because of exhaustion, your face is half paralyzed, and your wife had a stroke:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/06/justin-bieber-postpones-tour-i-need-to-make-my-health-the-priority.html

    Imagine if someone with this level of fame could only speak the truth publicly. The kidz aren’t all sitting at home reading Steve Kirsch, Alex Berenson, Dr. Robert Malone, but they would listen to you.

    COVID vaccines are a medical genocide.

    1. Eric Clapton tried to speak the truth about his vaccine injury, but he got censored.
      Eric Clapton said he even loss friends over his telling the truth about what happened to him.
      Its this weird mass formation psychosis, and of course the fraud of fake news narratives.

      1. Eric Clapton tried to speak the truth about his vaccine injury, but he got censored.

        Lots of people have been and are still being threatened with losing their livelihoods if they refuse to comply. I had the pleasure if staring down that gun barrel myself.

        It sure seems like we are approaching a perfect storm. We still have no idea about the long term effects of the jab, but I doubt they will be harmless. Meanwhile:
        -Food production is being curtailed globally, even though there was barely enough to go around to begin with. Millions will possibly starve in the third world.
        -The German Minister of Agriculture stated that global hunger is not a valid reason to not be green.
        -Inflation is rampant around the world and governments still keep spending more than they take in taxes. Inflation will cause social unrest.
        -The manufactured energy crisis is so severe that there is serious concern of social unrest in Europe this winter. St. Greta smiles.
        -And WEF/Davos ghouls keep telling us that there are too many people in the world.

        Marching in the streets, waving protest signs will accomplish nothing.

        1. ” Marching in the streets, waving protest signs will accomplish nothing.”

          I tend to agree with you . They don’t care what people want, its all about what they want, and they are forcing their agenda.

    2. “You’re 28 years old, cancelling your tour because of exhaustion, your face is half paralyzed, and your wife had a stroke:”

      And his house(s) are probably losing value too. The future is so bright gotta wear shades!

  38. I just got this in an email:

    Hi Ben
    Today Loan depot had a 30 yr at 6.375
    We’ve heard the last click of the roller coaster
    All down hill from here

  40. “Welcome To The ‘Say Nothing’ Phase Of This ‘Fourth Turning'”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/welcome-say-nothing-phase-fourth-turning

    (snip snip)

    “It has become clear to me, since the installation of dementia patient Biden as the illegitimate figurehead president by his globalist Deep State handlers, their agenda is to tear down our modern civilization and replace it with a totalitarian techno-gulag where you will be electronically monitored, disarmed, own nothing, be judged by social credit score, live in fear, and be happy – or else.

    “I’ve been pondering in which direction this Fourth Turning will flow, while observing the words and actions of our pedophile president and the other World Economic Forum puppets like Trudeau, Macron, and a myriad of other EU lackeys. I intellectually understand all Fourth Turnings reach their climax after immense bloodshed, climactic battles which could have gone either way, and in some cases saw citizens slaughtering fellow citizens. But I have tried to avoid thinking about the reality of what is likely to happen over the next five to ten years, as this Crisis turns from rhetoric and debate to violence and death. Keyboard warriors will yield to real warriors.

    “After reading Patrick Radden Keefe’s – Say Nothing – a fascinating tale of the brutal violence which lasted for three decades from the 1960’s through the 1990’s in Northern Ireland, I’ve come to the realization of what civil war might look like here in America. In reality, the conflict in Ireland between the Catholics and Protestants dated back centuries.

    “The vitriolic discord and purposeful fracturing of our shared societal values, which have bound this nation since its inception, has situated the country in an 1860 moment, a veritable powder keg with a lit fuse. The country has been gravely splintered for at least two decades, but the fissure has expanded at an accelerated velocity since the unanticipated election of Donald Trump in 2016. The rule of law no longer exists.

    “A four-year coup against Trump, with Clinton, Obama, DOJ, CIA, FBI, Congress, Judiciary, legacy media, and social media titans as co-conspirators, has now devolved into an Orwellian police state, with the Constitution trashed and government tyranny reaching unthinkable heights. The third world totalitarian tactics being used by Biden’s handlers to destroy the opposition party and its leader is being cheered on by the left and their media mouthpieces. Biden’s diabolically dark, hateful speech, with satanic blood red background, on the sacred ground where our Founding Fathers declared our independence from a tyrannical despot, appears to be the spark which will ignite real violence in the coming years.

    “The simmering hatred between the left and right has been rising towards a boiling point since the 2016 election. Everything Biden and his Obama handlers have done since his installation as president in the rigged 2020 election has been designed to sow discord, create chaos, and tear apart the fabric of this country. Authoritarian despots always accuse the opposition of crimes they themselves are guilty of having committed.

    “When you control the levers of power and the propaganda machine known as the media, you can literally flaunt the laws of the land and persecute those who disagree or fail to comply with your dictates. Elevating a protest by a few goofballs who were lured into the Capital by undercover FBI plants (Ray Epps) as an armed insurrection (with no arms), has been a pitiful display of partisanship and failed to accomplish the task of having Trump charged with a crime. This after two failed impeachment attempts based on actual crimes committed by the Biden crime family.”

    (there is more. Go to the link to read it)

  42. Society seems to be deteriorating down under too.

    ETHAN LETKEMAN
    6 Sep 2022292

    Disturbing security camera footage shows a 15-year-old girl assaulting a pregnant mother who was pushing her two children in a stroller.

    The wild incident happened on Monday in Ashfield, Western Australia. Local authorities say the suspect was allegedly attempting to steal the 37-year-old mother’s purse, according to PerthNow.com.

    WA Police Force
    @WA_Police
    ·
    Follow
    WARNING: DISTRESSING VIDEO CONTENT

    Midland Detectives are appealing for information in relation to an assault that occurred on Smallman Place, Ashfield.

    Anyone with information should contact Crime Stoppers on 1800 333 000 or report online at http://crimestopperswa.com.au

    https://twitter.com/WA_Police/status/1567045108532641793?s=20&t=YdQWhAkDqPouWJGGRMJ4HA

    1. The Financial Times
      Opinion Chinese economy
      Ignoring China’s disastrous ‘three Ds’ could be a global risk
      Disease, drought and debt will have worldwide consequences
      A parched river bed along the Yangtze River in Wuhan in China’s central Hubei province
      A parched river bed along the Yangtze River in Wuhan in China’s central Hubei province
      Megan Greene 13 hours ago
      The writer is a senior fellow at Brown University and global chief economist at Kroll

      In a world beset by multiple crises, officials may be looking past the biggest threat of all: China. The talk among central bankers at the Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Conference focused on inflation and rising interest rates. Absent was any mention that just 10 days beforehand, the People’s Bank of China did exactly the opposite, unexpectedly cutting its key interest rate.

      China is beset by three distressing Ds: debt, disease and drought. They belie a slowdown that is not raising sufficient alarm bells among investors and policymakers. China remains heavily integrated into the global supply chain and is a potential driver of global demand as one of the biggest markets for foreign goods and services.

      But economic news from China has gone from bad to worse. Manufacturing contracted in July, retail sales, industrial output and investment all slowed and youth unemployment reached nearly 20 per cent. There has been a record outflow of portfolio investments via the Stock and Bond Connects. More than 20 per cent of American multinationals are pessimistic about the five-year business outlook, more than double the percentage last year, according to a US-China Business Council poll. The median 2022 GDP forecast was recently cut to 3.5 per cent, in a country that was growing at 6 per cent two years ago.

      The pessimism is warranted. The first D hitting China — debt — is hardly a new phenomenon. But this time it’s concentrated in the real estate sector, which contributes roughly 20-30 per cent of GDP and accounts for 70 per cent of household wealth, 60 per cent of local government revenues and 40 per cent of bank lending, TS Lombard has calculated. Home prices have fallen for 11 consecutive months, homebuyers are boycotting mortgage payments for unbuilt properties and more than 30 real estate companies have defaulted on international debt.

      The policy response has been rate cuts and a fiscal stimulus focused on easing liquidity for property developers and boosting funding for infrastructure. This won’t do the trick. The money supply expanded but credit slowed sharply in July, suggesting China is stuck in a liquidity trap. Banks are being pushed to lend while demand for loans has plummeted. The fiscal measures to support infrastructure spending are unlikely to offset the property slump.

      The central government’s balance sheet is relatively clean, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of roughly 20 per cent. It could insist state-backed institutions lend to property developers and then bail them out, reducing the risk of cascading defaults. But that only postpones the reckoning and creates the kind of moral hazard President Xi Jinping wants to avoid.
      …

    2. The Financial Times
      Chinese business & finance
      China’s Big Four banks feel property pinch from failing loans
      Stalled projects, mortgage boycotts and new regulations spill into banking sector
      Signage outside an Industrial and Commercial Bank of China branch in Shanghai
      ICBC and China’s three other big banks are recording markedly increasing liabilities in the depressed property sector.
      Cheng Leng in Hong Kong and Edward White in Seoul 5 hours ago

      China’s biggest four banks have been hit by a more than 50 per cent increase in overdue loans from the property sector over the past year, as the real estate market’s liquidity crunch spills into the financial sector.

      China’s top lenders — the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China — last week reported combined overdue property loans of Rmb136.6bn ($20bn) at the end of June, up from Rmb90bn at the same time last year.

      The rise in bad loans from the deteriorating property crisis is worsening asset quality across China’s Rmb367.7tn banking industry. Beyond bad debts, the banks are also suffering from weakening loan demand from their best corporate and retail clients as growth slows in the world’s second-biggest economy.

      “We see multiyear structural [return on equity] decline as banks retreat from the property sector amid stalled projects, mortgage boycotts and heightened regulations,” Macquarie analyst Dexter Hsu wrote in a note to clients.

      China’s “Big Four’‘ lenders are systemically important institutions and the backbone of China’s financial sector. They are among the world’s biggest banks, holding about 36 per cent of the country’s deposits and issuing a third of its loans. Beijing depends on the groups to stabilise the country’s economy and trusts them to faithfully implement monetary policies.

      The size and relatively stable health of the Big Four banks has given Chinese authorities confidence as they try to orchestrate a soft landing for failing companies in the property sector, which accounts for about 30 per cent of national gross domestic product.

      However, Hsu said that while banks’ loans to developers accounted for 4 per cent to 9 per cent of their total loans, it will probably become “the major source” of new non-performing loans in the next two years, driving up credit costs for the banks.

      “We believe the real exposure to developers could be much bigger than reported because they extended credits to the developers via proprietary investments and off-balance-sheet credits like wealth management products, trust products, private funds and private bonds,” he added.

      Exacerbating the gloomy picture, Beijing’s economic planners have called on state banks to take an earnings hit by offering lower interest rates to support homebuyers and businesses. They have also been told to set aside more financial support and resources to help deliver unfinished homes.

      A senior official at one of the Big Four lenders said the state of the property market meant that the banks had “no incentive” to boost lending to the sector despite pressure from Beijing.

      “Our cost of capital is still too high. We have no incentive to beef up lending even though the regulator asked us to do so. The more loans we issue, the more [non-performing loans] we will have. The return on our lending business has gone down a lot while NPLs are taking off,” the person said.
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