thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

Panicked Sellers Have Emotionally Spiraled Into A Dark Place Thinking They Have Missed The Boat Forever And It Will Be Impossible To Sell

A report from KELO in South Dakota. “A report from the Realtor Association of the Sioux Empire shows closed home sales were down more than 22 percent in the Sioux Falls area in August. ‘Where last year we would get 20 offers and go $50,000 over asking price, this year we’re seeing where we’re getting eight offers and $20,000 over asking or a little less than that,’ Tyler Goff, the team leader at the Tyler Goff group said.”

From Alabama.com. “Huntsville area home sales continued to fall off 2021′s record pace in July, and local real estate agents believe rising interest rates have had something to do with that. Knox said most averages dipped in August, with Athens having an average price of $346,000, Huntsville $350,000, Madison $433,000 and Decatur $282,000. ‘I think prices are adjusting downward to where they should have been,’ Tim Knox of Revolved Realty said. ‘We’ve been in an inflated market over the last year and home prices had just reached a level where they really lacked logic. It was an emotional market.'”

“‘Interest rates have affected the buyer pool,’ added Realtor Matt Curtis. ‘There’s been a lot of new construction cancellations since many buyers who contracted when rates were at 3% now can no longer afford at more than 6%. This has created a temporary opportunity to get a new deal on construction.'”

WNEM in Michigan. “After many have struggled with the competitive housing market, real estate experts say hopeful homeowners could soon have a sigh of relief. ‘The average price of a home has gone from 375,000 in June of 2020 to 525,000 in June of 2022,’ said Tim Nash, economist at Northwood University. That price increase is why Nash says a price correction is on the horizon. ‘People just can’t buy homes,’ Nash said. ‘They can’t afford it with that scenario, that three-pun scenario of lower real wages, higher interest rates, and higher prices. So we think that prices are going to decline, sales are going to decline by the end of the year.'”

“Dr. Spenser Robinson, Director of Real Estate at Central Michigan University, said that the government will have to step in to prevent the market from crashing. Robinson tells why the drop is happening now. ‘We saw growth that was more than normal over the last few years,’ Robinson said. ‘The reasons for that were increase in demands for housing in the pandemic because people wanted larger places to live, as there’s a lot of work from home and will continue to be. And then the federal reserve printed $4 trillion of money. So some of this decline is just retreating back to where things really out to be in their more natural, intrinsic price.'”

WTOP on Washington DC. “The number of contracts signed to buy a house or a condo in the D.C. metro was down 26.3% in August compared to the same time last year. Closed sales — deals likely inked in June or July — were down 25.3%, further evidence of quickly slowing local housing market. The biggest decline in buyer demand was for higher-priced single-family homes. ‘The frenetic pace of the housing market over the past two years was not sustainable,’ Bright MLS said in a statement.”

The Daily Independent. “July 28 was a damper day in the housing market nationally and locally. There are now 91 site-built homes on the market which is a 35% increase from 11 weeks ago. Of the 91 ‘for sale’ site-built homes, 26 homes, or 25% have had a price adjustment in the past 30 days. For the ‘in escrow’ homes, nine had a price adjustment before they had an offer accepted. That’s a total of 38% experiencing a price adjustment in the past 30 days. The accelerated market we had in the past two years is not returning any time soon. As a result, there are more homes gradually coming on the market to choose from.”

The San Francisco Standard in California. “Imagine a slow-moving train coming towards you. The lights are shining, the horn is blaring, but it’s just far enough in the distance that the risk doesn’t seem real just yet. That’s a fitting-enough analogy for the state of San Francisco’s commercial real estate market, which is tilting towards a collapse in property values, leaving the city, its budget and its ability to provide services tied to the tracks.”

“Signal lights of the city’s tenuous fiscal future are starting to flash. Major tech employers like Yelp and Airbnb have fled or gone fully remote, leading to mass office vacancies. A swath of commercial landlords are seeking massive reductions in their assessed property values—and associated tax bills. And a recent report from the Urban Displacement Project ranked the city’s downtown recovery as dead last among more than 60 cities across North America.”

“In the case of 550 California St., a downtown office tower owned by Wells Fargo, bids came in at 60% to 70% under what the building would have sold for in 2019, real estate brokers said. ‘We’re way above anything that was happening in the Great Recession and dot-com era days,’ said Jay Shaffer, a principal at Colton Commercial & Partners. ‘We have this shadow market of sublease availability in seemingly uncharted territories. And sublease inventory is still rising.'”

The Commercial Observer. “As Brad Zampa, senior partner on CBRE’s Northern California capital markets team, explains, the environment for commercial refinancing, especially for less desirable office properties, has become unmoored by today’s uncertainty. ‘The office market is a falling knife right now,’ Zampa said, adding the situation is dire nationally but especially in the West Coast markets he covers, including San Francisco, Los Angeles and Seattle. ‘The top 10 to 20 percent of the buildings in every central business district are going to capture the market share of workers who are going back to the office. And we’re left with a huge swath of buildings where nobody knows.'”

“‘The lenders are saying, ‘No one is here, how do I underwrite this?’ Zampa said. ‘They’re just taking the buildings with good tenants, and that’s a huge problem.'”

From Bloomberg. “Regional bank executives are seeing more signs of strain across mortgage businesses as higher interest rates slow home purchases. ‘We’re near the bottom of where revenues are going to be, and you’re starting to see people give up the ghost,’ said Citizens Financial Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer Bruce Van Saun. ‘People are saying there’s too much capacity,’ leading to layoffs.”

The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “Redfin is looking for a new tenant to take over the Frisco office space that housed its now-shuttered mortgage division. Seattle-based Redfin put more than 22,199 square feet of office space at Hall Park in Frisco up for sublease. Dallas-based brokerage Cresa is marketing the space at 2611 Internet Blvd., which was the primary office of Redfin Mortgage. Redfin said in January that it would consolidate its lending operations into Bay Equity Home Loans, a San Francisco Bay Area-based firm it bought for $137.8 million in April.“

“Several other real estate companies with a presence in the Dallas-Fort Worth area cut employees in response to lower mortgage demand. Ann Arbor, Mich.-based Home Point Financial Corp., also known as Homepoint, plans to lay off 526 employees tied to its Farmers Branch office in November, Coppell-based Mr. Cooper Group Inc. cut almost 700 jobs this year and Plano-based First Guaranty Mortgage Corp. cut more than 400 jobs this summer.”

From Axios on Texas. “The Austin home-market has indubitably cooled off, with inventory up and asking prices routinely slashed, leaving some homeowners suddenly anxious about their selling prospects. Realtor Lilly Rockwell breaks down the local market: ‘I find myself playing the therapist now more than ever to panicked sellers who have emotionally spiraled into a dark place thinking they have missed the boat forever and it will be impossible to sell.'”

The Strayroy Age Dispatch in Canada. “August’s 267 new real estate listings in the Sarnia area broke a decade-long record and have helped take some pressure off the local market, the president of the Sarnia-Lambton Real Estate Board says. ‘August was a 10-year new record for the number of new listings … which is a good thing,’ board president Rob Longo said. ‘Any time you see stories about the housing market they’re predominantly going to be driven by Toronto and Vancouver,’ he said. ‘They have seen a bit of a retraction this year. Toronto’s down in areas 15 or 20 per cent in sale prices.'”

From News.com.au in Australia. “A Sydney homeowner was forced to slash a whopping $250,000 from their asking price after their property failed to sell at auction. The 2.5-bed terrace house on a 116sq m block in the upscale inner city suburb of Paddington had already been renovated but still had potential to add more value by extending either downstairs or by extending into the roof. On the market for four weeks prior to the auction, real estate agent Randal Kemp from Ray White Woollahra-Paddington expected the property to fetch between $2.6 million and $2.7 million.”

“Despite 90 potential buyers viewing the property, the Paddington property was passed in at auction. Mr Kemp said the property was a ‘little bit overpriced from initial expectations.’ ‘We’ve got multiple buyers still wanting to buy, it’s just we’ve got a situation where you have three to four people standing at an auction and no one bids,’ he told the Australian Financial Review. ‘Everyone is looking for value in the market at the moment. Buyers are just very nervous. You’ve got to stay on top of what is available in the market and have a price guide in line with where buyers see value. Gone are the days in which someone will pay 10 per cent on top of what the last one sold for so no-one else will buy it. To have a discussion with a vendor to say their house, their property, is devalued by 10 per cent to 15 per cent in a matter of weeks is a hard pill to swallow.'”

From WION. “The crisis in China’s property sector is going from bad to worse. As per reports, in the country, a demolition campaign is gaining speed. After massive quantities of debt-fueled construction, China now has enormous, uninhabited ‘ghost cities,’ and when builders run out of money, demolitions happen. According to a report in the Telegraph, analysts have warned Beijing has adopted a ‘build, pause, demolish, repeat’ policy as Chinese officials try to limit supply to prevent a drop in property prices and increase economic activity through additional construction.”

“In an effort to revive the slumping real estate market, the Chinese government is reportedly demolishing tower blocks and halting work on structures that could accommodate 75 million people or more than the entire UK population.The Chinese property research institute Bic Research Institute (BRI) has issued a warning in its most recent study, noting that China has no scarcity of homes, sitting unoccupied, and that ‘such high vacancy is risky.’ ‘A large potential supply is represented by vacant homes. When predictions for the housing market turn negative, a significant number of vacant homes will be put on the market, which could add to downward pressure on home prices,’ it added.”

From Nikkei Asia. “Japan will likely see an excess supply of 10 million dwelling units in 2023, due partly to government housing policy through the 2000s that ignored falling demand caused by a shrinking population. The glut will further aggravate the problem of unoccupied homes, which topped 8.49 million in 2018. According to the internal affairs and communications ministry, Japan had a total of 62.41 million dwelling units as of 2018. Nomura Research Institute expects the number will increase to as many as 65.46 million in 2023.”

“As the number of households stops growing, ‘the number of excess housing units could rise further to 20 million or 30 million,’ said Ken Miura, a professor at Kyoto University’s graduate school of engineering. ‘It was a remnant of the high-growth era. Despite an expected decline in population, the government did not change its policy and pushed the housing industry to build more homes.'”

“Crassone, a Nagoya-based company that helps match owners of unoccupied houses with demolition specialists, has made more than 10,000 such arrangements. Using its data and expertise, Crassone in 2021 began helping local governments simulate the costs of tearing down vacant homes. About 30 municipalities have already signed up for the service.”

From Market Watch. “Americans’ real wealth dropped by a record 20.9% in the second quarter, according to a MarketWatch inflation adjustment to new Federal Reserve data on household wealth. The figure accounts for the size of bank accounts, but also stock market holdings. The perceived chances of missing a minimum debt payment increased in the most recent survey, they noted. Just over 12% said there was a chance they’d miss a minimum payment in the upcoming three months. That echoes numbers from the pandemic’s early days. The 12.2% was the highest reading since May 2020, researchers noted.”

Related Posts

A Pack Of Fools

A weekend topic starting with Realtor.com. "In today’s wild housing market, it may seem that…

This Post Has 160 Comments

  1. ‘Of the 91 ‘for sale’ site-built homes, 26 homes, or 25% have had a price adjustment in the past 30 days. For the ‘in escrow’ homes, nine had a price adjustment before they had an offer accepted. That’s a total of 38% experiencing a price adjustment in the past 30 days’

    This is Ridgecrest CA, where writers don’t know you need to mention where the hell you are writing about.

  2. ‘We’re way above anything that was happening in the Great Recession and dot-com era days’

    This is a well researched and written article, worth reading in full.

    1. “We thought there was a unique opportunity to take advantage of the impending distress within the commercial real estate market,” McNamara said. “San Francisco has been an amazing example of this; we’ve had all these tech companies that have been driving office space usage for the past 20 years. But we believe that’s changed forever.”

      These tech companies continue to morph, but they have always been risky tenants sort of like restaurants.

      1. These tech companies continue to morph, but they have always been risky tenants sort of like restaurants.

        They’re going to morph out of business now that the free FED money is gone. The days of living off of junk bond sales are over with.

    2. This is kinda interesting – banks are starting to give up on core downtown realestate. If they are selling on screaming appreciation, we can respect their decision making. Selling at lower valuation – something is up.

      In the case of 550 California St., a downtown office tower owned by Wells Fargo, bids came in at 60% to 70% under what the building would have sold for in 2019

  3. ‘it would consolidate its lending operations into Bay Equity Home Loans, a San Francisco Bay Area-based firm it bought for $137.8 million in April’

    But Glen, you were a winnah?

  4. ‘I find myself playing the therapist now more than ever to panicked sellers who have emotionally spiraled into a dark place thinking they have missed the boat forever and it will be impossible to sell’

    That’s some red hotcakes right there.

  5. The 2020 election was stolen.

    Joe Biden is not, and will never be, the legitimately elected president of the United States.

    1. I would laugh if I saw this clown laying on his back with a bleeding head wound. He is the most angry, divisive, corrupt piece of garbage to ever inhabit the White House.

  6. WARNING: This article has nothing to do with housing.

    “Germany’s Power Grid Faces Collapse As Millions Stock Up On Inefficient Electric Heaters For The Winter”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/germanys-power-grid-faces-collapse-millions-stock-inefficient-electric-heaters-winter

    (snip)

    Germans could overload their power grid as they switch to inefficient electric heaters in an attempt to avoid gas shortages this winter, utilities warned in an article published on Sunday.

    Fearing the worst, German households have been stocking up on electric fan heaters, including portable devices, sales figures show, amid fears that Russia could cut or further limit gas supplies in the wake of its war in Ukraine.

    The managing director of the German association of energy and water utilities, BDEW, told daily Handelsblatt that customers could be left with even heftier power bills if they do not use the devices sparingly.

    “And they can overburden the power grids, for instance when many households switch on their fan heaters in one part of town at the same time on a cold winter’s night,” BDEW director Kerstin Andreae was quoted as saying. She said she understood people’s fears of cold homes, but some of the coping mechanisms could backfire.

    Germany, along with other European Union countries, is scrambling to support homes and industries burdened by a further surge in energy prices after Russia halted supplies through the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline. Alas, no matter what Europe does, it can’t print nat gas, or commodities, which is why Charif Souki, chairman of Tellurian told Bloomberg TV that European buyers will ultimately be paying the equivalent of $120 to $150 per barrel for energy regardless of source for a long time.

    Europe will be short on natural gas supplies this winter and over the next several winters, Souki said adding that “In the short term, it’s going to be obscene but I think that if everybody does the right thing, then over time, I think you’re going to find all of the energy prices are going to equalize.”

    Pointing out the obvious, Souki said that high prices could result in demand destruction: “We’re short on energy sources in general,” he said. “So at some point, you’re going to find that oil, coal, gas and renewables are going to settle around a certain level and my suspicion is that it’s going to $120 to $150 per barrel equivalent for all of these commodities”

    What was left unsaid for obvious reasons, is that “demand destruction” means thousands of people freezing to death.

    To be sure, the German government has pledged that industrial users would be the first to be rationed in case of a shortfall and that private households would be spared any cuts, but it remains to be seen just how those with political clout and money will fail to get preferential treatment to millions of German pensioners.

    The president of Germany’s federal network agency also said local power blackouts could result from peaks in fan heater use, according to a Saturday interview with newspaper Tagesspiegel.

    Klaus Mueller added that even amid “very high” gas prices, electric heaters would still cost users more than gas-based central heating, which is the most common form of residential heating in the country.

    Germans bought 600,000 electric heating devices during the first half of the year, up almost 35% from a year earlier, according to data by market researcher GfK. The final number will likely be in the millions following the turmoil in Germany’s energy market in recent months.

      1. Electric heaters are one-hundred percent efficient in converting electricity into heat. But the methods of creating this electricity and transporting this electricity to the electric heater is much, much less than one-hundred percent. Because of this fact generally it is better, more efficient, to heat a house directly from gas than it is to heat it from electricity.

        2. “Because of this fact generally it is better, more efficient, to heat a house directly from gas than it is to heat it from electricity.”

          Burning ___ (fill in the blank with your favorite fuel) is never more efficient than resistance heat. It is sometimes less costly but never more efficient.

  7. ‘And then the federal reserve printed $4 trillion of money. So some of this decline is just retreating back to where things really out to be in their more natural, intrinsic price’

    ‘closed home sales were down more than 22 percent in the Sioux Falls area in August. ‘Where last year we would get 20 offers and go $50,000 over asking price, this year we’re seeing where we’re getting eight offers and $20,000 over asking or a little less than that’

    You really fooked up this time Jerry.

    1. You really fooked up this time Jerry.

      This guy and his cronies just sh!t their pants and printed, never doing the math or anything. They unleashed the most grotesque speculative mania in history for what appears to be personal financial gain. Where are the investigations? We have lost the rule of law.

  8. ‘Americans’ real wealth dropped by a record 20.9% in the second quarter’

    It was in the spring, I think, that I first started reading about pet abandonment. It’s gotten worse. That happened in the 2000’s too. This explains rents sinking like a turd in a well.

  9. ‘The office market is a falling knife right now,’ Zampa said, adding the situation is dire nationally but especially in the West Coast markets he covers, including San Francisco, Los Angeles and Seattle. ‘The top 10 to 20 percent of the buildings in every central business district are going to capture the market share of workers who are going back to the office. And we’re left with a huge swath of buildings where nobody knows…The lenders are saying, ‘No one is here, how do I underwrite this?’

    Oh right, the CRE bubble hasn’t gone away. Now we gotcher build destroy policy in China and Japan, we can officially call it eat yer crowz time for Dan:

    via GIPHY

  10. ‘the government will have to step in to prevent the market from crashing’

    Spenser, yer a perma bear. Anyway, calling for a bailout is the job of Ho Chi Zandi and Chairman Mao Shiller.

    1. Never, ever let law enforcement into your house without a warrant. Never talk to them period and tell them to have a nice day. If they do get a warrant, get an attorney, but never, ever talk to them. Ever. Anything and everything you say can and will be used against you in a court of law, sometimes twisted. Say nothing. Nada.

        1. FWIW, a warrant isn’t required for trash as there’s no longer an expectation of privacy once something’s been thrown away.

  12. ‘The top 10 to 20 percent of the buildings in every central business district are going to capture the market share of workers who are going back to the office. And we’re left with a huge swath of buildings where nobody knows.’

    It sure sux to HODL central business district real estate in the US.

    1. Really – maybe the top 20 % by VALUE for commercial A realestate. Do you want to really pay for space in the salesforce tower with all their fancy/cool amenities or just pay for clean office space with a clean kitchen and working elevators.

      1. The downstream effect: what happens to yer lucky 20% as they watch the 80% roll over and the revenue support with it?

    2. “It sure sux to HODL central business district real estate in the US.”

      We’re talking about pension funds here.

  14. LMFAO@ people on yesterday’s thread supporting U.S. taxpayer money being dumped into Ukraine.

    Russia Today link, because the New York Times and Washington Post are globalist scum media.

    Russia Today — Attempts by the US to force the global community to back its position on Ukraine have failed (9/13/2022):

    “The stance taken by most of the world on the conflict between Russia and the West shows that humanity is now far more united and capable of adapting, even to major challenges that may not have been envisaged just a short time ago. It belies the notion that American centrality in world affairs continues to make any issue related to Washington the most important one in the world and capable of causing a global split.

    That doesn’t mean Russia should think that, by being on the right side of history, it will automatically secure the support of the majority of states. This is something that remains to be fought for.

    It would be reckless to assume that the refusal of the majority of the world’s nations, representing 85% of the global population, to join the West’s economic war against Russia means support for Moscow’s behavior.

    It is, of course, too early to tell what the international order will look like in the future, after the West is forced to admit its historic defeat in the struggle to maintain global dominance. It will be shaped gradually as the leading powers, often in very dangerous ways, define the limits of their power capabilities and the limits of what is permissible.

    This process, given the irrationality of a major general war and the scale of longstanding problems, is likely to be much more protracted than previous episodes of radical change in the international order. We are now witnessing one of the first stages of a lasting global political realignment. We are, in fact, talking about the end of a period that has lasted several hundred years.”

    https://www.rt.com/russia/562689-us-ukraine-russia-struggle/

    Russia is winning.

        1. He has plenty of other options still. Carpet bombing and complete cut off of supply routes would probably do just fine. Russia has been fairly moderate so far. It is probably in their best interest to drag things out and make the west waste itself. Never underestimate Joe’s ability to screw things up.

    2. “after the West is forced to admit its historic defeat in the struggle to maintain global dominance”

      At the moment, Russia is in a historic struggle just to maintain its own aircraft. And in the next 20 years, the East is going to have a historic defeat in the struggle to maintain its own population.

  15. Seeing bankster scum getting the sack is almost as enjoyable as seeing real journalists at failing globalist propaganda outlets getting pink-slipped.

    Up to 5 per cent of Goldman Sachs workers to get the sack

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/banking/up-to-5-per-cent-of-goldman-sachs-workers-to-get-the-sack/news-story/cf5380a5c5a5ac95e1b6144fe1865e58

    The big banking firm is firing as many as 2350 workers after profit tanked off the back of weak profits.

  17. Tens of billions in fake wealth created by RBA fake money flying off to debauched currency heaven as Australia’s housing bubble starts to crater.

    Total value of Australian homes drops by billions of dollars for first time in two years: ABS

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/total-value-of-australian-homes-drops-for-first-time-in-two-years-abs/news-story/5a351537f06a78dd9d169f5953f90b66

    Australia’s housing market is suffering through a price trend it hasn’t seen in two years, with more than $160 billion lost, new figures have revealed.

    1. A truly hollowed out country. For instance: the Aussies used to manufacture the cars they use, but that has ended. Now they import all their cars, though since the WEF doesn’t want them, or anyone else, to have a car, then all is going according to plan.

  18. “Despite 90 potential buyers viewing the property, the Paddington property was passed in at auction. Mr Kemp said the property was a ‘little bit overpriced from initial expectations.’ ‘We’ve got multiple buyers still wanting to buy, it’s just we’ve got a situation where you have three to four people standing at an auction and no one bids,’…”

    They did the wrong auction format. In a Dutch auction, you start at a price above market value and reduce it incrementally until someone makes an offer. The first individual to place an offer gets to purchase the item at the current offer price.

    For an English auction to succeed, you need to start with an initial price below market value, or else risk receiving no offers.

    A Dutch auction seems like a better choice when prices are falling and market value is unknown.

  19. A reader sent these in:

    JUST IN: The weakest American borrowers are starting to miss payments and default on their loans at Goldman’s Sach’s, $GS, loss rate on credit card loans being the worst among big U.S. card issuers and “well above subprime lenders” at 2.93%, per CNBC.

    https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1569382711110041600

    It was the previous government!
    It was Putin!
    It was the queens death!
    It was China …

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1569475162097205248

    Ben Rabidoux

    Bank of Canada has updated their housing affordability measure as of Q2, and it…is…FUGLY!

    https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/1569336854050226176

    1. The Financial Times
      Goldman Sachs Group
      Goldman Sachs plans round of job cuts as dealmaking dries up
      Review of underperforming bankers threatens hundreds of employees
      Goldman Sachs logo
      Goldman Sachs’ investment banking revenues were down 38% in the first six months of 2022
      Joshua Franklin in New York yesterday

      Goldman Sachs is planning to implement a round of job cuts in the coming weeks that threatens to result in hundreds of dismissals among the bank’s employees, according to a person briefed on the matter.

      In a sign of the dealmaking slowdown on Wall Street, Goldman will restart its annual cull of underperforming bankers, which it paused during the coronavirus pandemic as banks struggled to keep up with the workload.

      The process typically results in between 1 and 5 per cent of company-wide employees losing their jobs, with the impending review set to result in dismissals towards the lower end of that range, the person said.
      …

    2. That housing affordability graph based on Bank of Canada info is truly scary. The only way it worked was when the govt was sending out checks. No wonder they want to try to keep it going.

  20. UK FBs who just had to get up on that housing ladder are now getting slammed by inflation as the consequences of the BoE’s Money Printer Go BRRRRRR manifest as raging inflation. Sh*t’s going to get real when FBs have to choose between paying their mortgage & putting food on the table.

    Grocery price inflation hits a new 12.4 per cent record meaning shoppers’ annual food bill has soared by £571

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11205611/Grocery-price-inflation-hits-new-record-high-shoppers-annual-food-bill-soars-5-181.html

    1. Plus they all have variable rate loans, which means at some point their monthly nut is going rise dramatically.

    2. Grocery prices just soared 13.5% in the latest US CPI report released today. I am seeing some absolutely bananas prices at the store.

  21. “According to a report in the Telegraph, analysts have warned Beijing has adopted a ‘build, pause, demolish, repeat’ policy as Chinese officials try to limit supply to prevent a drop in property prices and increase economic activity through additional construction.”

    This sounds like Keynesian ditch digging at its worst, with a massive resulting waste of human and natural resources. Does John Maynard Keynes’s ghost haunt Chinese bureaucrats?

    1. Am currently reading “The Tragedy of Liberation: A History of the Chinese Revolution 1945-1957” by Frank Dikotter. It should be required reading for anyone who seeks a fuller understanding of where the Democrat-Bolsheviks would like to take us.

  22. Glowie gonna glow:

    “Over the weekend The Gateway Pundit learned that the FBI was scouring our website and comment threads.

    Following the unprecedented raid on Mar-a-Lago, the FBI feared retribution from the American public for their ongoing partisan attacks on President Trump.

    Americans were outraged to see their premier law enforcement agency once again used as the paramilitary force of the Democrat Party.”

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/09/beware-feds-threads-act-accordingly-not-engage-feds-threads/

    Making threats will only land you locked up inside the January 6th gulag, so don’t do that.

    Engage people in your personal life. Family, friends, co-workers, people you go to church with.

    Talk about the stolen election. Talk about Replacement Theory. Talk about the medical genocide mRNA injections. Talk about Weimar America. Talk about the Christian Nationalist Homeland.

    Talk about who these globalists are, what they are promoting, and how they stand to benefit.

    Always name the names, both of individuals and of organizations.

    This is more powerful than making threats. Sharing information, making personal connections, this is how these globalists will be defeated.

    1. Scam. There are makeshift, temporary lumber yards all up and down the west coast. And there are tractor trailer flatbeds parked with no tractor hooked up, full of lumber. There is a massive glut of lumber.

  25. And then the federal reserve printed $4 trillion of money.

    Gold and silver are money. Yellen Bux are fiat currency backed by nothing of value. Never confuse money for Fed confetti.

    1. WHAT IS THE FED?

      The Federal Reserve, “the Fed”, is the central bank of the United States of America that was created in 1913 by Congress. It is a banking cartel that has a government-granted monopoly on the creation of money and credit. The Fed literally loans “money” (Federal Reserve Notes) into existence. Federal Reserve Notes are paper promises backed by nothing of intrinsic value and they are only functioning as money because the government forces them on the public through legal tender laws. Federal Reserve Notes are referred to as dollars but are not. The definition of a dollar is a weight of silver (371 grains). To put it simply, the Fed is a group of banks running a national criminal counterfeiting racket with the protection of the government.

      http://endthefed.org

  26. “The number of contracts signed to buy a house or a condo in the D.C. metro was down 26.3% in August compared to the same time last year.

    Is that a lot?

  27. Of the 91 ‘for sale’ site-built homes, 26 homes, or 25% have had a price adjustment in the past 30 days. For the ‘in escrow’ homes, nine had a price adjustment before they had an offer accepted. That’s a total of 38% experiencing a price adjustment in the past 30 days.

    C’mon, RIEC shills. I know it pains you, but let’s call “price adjustments” what they are: price reductions.

  28. Weimar America.

    A few weeks ago, Antifa armed with AR-15’s in Texas were openly brandishing weapons to “protect” the performers and patrons of a similar event targeting children, and the local police did nothing.

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/09/12/texas-bar-cancels-disney-themed-drag-brunch-blames-critics-shame-you/

    Ancient Rome collapsed as a civilization for a reason.

    And remember, there can be no negotiation with Marxism, ever. The only response to Marxism is its complete extermination.

  29. What is the Sacramento Housing Market Doing In September?
    Sep 12, 2022 If you’re in the market to buy or sell a home, understanding the real estate market is important to making the best decisions for your future. In this video, we’re going to look at the market going into September 2022, the trends we saw last month, and what that means for you.

    The housing market looks to be making a shift towards pre-COVID levels, with buyers gaining buying power over sellers.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2lccOY5yfE

    3:33.

      1. Flat since June, still above $20k for Bitcon. Yawn.
        It (BitCon. Love it.)just won’t die. Been expecting it down around 10K for months but… Shows what I know.

  35. Santa Clarita housing market update closing costs getting paid Sep 12, 2022 #CWH

    So it’s gonna be condominiums town, home, single family residences. And I pulled all of the Santa Clarita core cities, Canyon country, Castaic, new hall, Stevenson, ranch, Saugus and Valencia. So currently 491 that’s down from last week’s uh, about 5 25. So now we’re at 4 91. I I’m, I’m gonna throw it out there. I’ll give you a future. Uh, what I think’s gonna be happening in the future. And this is very typical of a, a market that has slowed down like ours has. But here in the next several months, we’re gonna see inventory continue to decline. Uh, buyers are still gonna be active. The ones that are out there now because they really want to try to get those properties potentially, maybe something less than what other people had paid even two and three months ago where they were outbid and they had contingencies, they were out, uh, they were out outperformed by other people that wrote offers saying, Hey, I’ll wave all my rights because I really wanna buy this house and I’ll pay 150 grand more than the seller wants even more than the last comp cash.

    So it’s hard to compete with folks like that, but I think we’re gonna see those prices start to come down. And again, we’re gonna have even less inventory here. As we get closer to Christmas, don’t forget this. When a S listed for sale between now and Christmas, those sellers are pretty serious. So you might wanna pay attention to those. Also, if you have an agent, make sure that they’re looking at inventory that has been for sale for a while. We also have properties that fall out of escrow frequently. That happens also. So if you saw something you’re like, oh, gray, we didn’t get it. We tried to write, we wrote the offer, but ours wasn’t accepted. Make sure your agent is still watching those properties to make sure that if they pop back on the market as falling out or maybe they can call and check.

    Connor with Honor, aka – Connor MacIvor. Local real estate agent in Southern California HeadQuartered in the Santa Clarita Valley. Santa Clarita Valley (SCV) is the next community north of Los Angeles. Our southern border (SCV) is the northern border of Los Angeles California. Hence, we are one of the safest bedroom communities in Los Angeles. I have been representing home buyers and home sellers since 1998. I started the first real estate podcast in the Los Angeles Area. I also run one of the longest-running podcasts and video channels which talks about the best ways to buy real estate, invest in real estate, and also tips – tricks, and best practices for home sellers to get their best advantage when wanting to sell their homes, condos, and town-homes. My helpfulness should never be mistaken for desperation. My wanting to help you is from my heart to yours. I want everyone to be safe and protected when venturing into the real estate waters. I will be your float, your bully, your shark running interference for you when it comes to all your real estate endeavors. It tickles me when I get feedback about this part of my real estate dissertation related to how I represent my home buyers and home sellers.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRPSSugz8D4

    11:10.

    1. closing costs getting paid

      So another RE metric, Percent of Original List Price Received, getting muddied. I’ve noticed that most of these YT realtors just regurgitate their local monthly metrics.

      1. another RE metric

        In addition to DOM. I’m seeing quite a bit of manipulation on that front in my local search.

    1. The Financial Times
      US economy
      US inflation rate exceeds forecast
      Consumer price growth keeps pressure on Federal Reserve for further big rate increase this month
      A shopper in a store in San Francisco
      The CPI fell less than expected in August to an annual pace of 8.3% from 8.5% in July
      Colby Smith and James Politi in Washington 20 minutes ago

      The US inflation rate was higher than forecast in August, keeping up pressure on the Federal Reserve for a large interest rate rise this month.

      The consumer price index increased 0.1 per cent for the month, above economists’ expectations for a 0.1 per cent drop, as a fall in energy costs failed to fully offset increases in services and other spending categories

      The figures, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, also contrasted with July, when prices did not rise on the previous month.

      On an annual basis, headline inflation is running at 8.3 per cent, down from 8.5 per cent in July, but still near a four-decade high. Economists expected a reading of 8.1 per cent.

      Financial markets reversed course following the hotter-than-expected inflation figures. Futures for the S&P 500 indicated Wall Street’s benchmark stock index would open 2.4 per cent lower on Tuesday morning, having been up 0.7 per cent before the data were released.

      In government debt markets, the yield on the 2-year US Treasury, which is more sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations, surged to be up 0.13 percentage points at 3.70 per cent, having traded at 3.52 per cent beforehand.

      “We don’t really see anything in here that would make the Fed want to opt for a slower pace of rate hikes this month,” said Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings.
      …

    2. Markets
      CNBC TV
      Watchlist
      LIVE UPDATES
      Updated Tue, Sep 13 2022
      10:35 AM EDT
      Stocks fall sharply as hot inflation report points to more aggressive Fed, Nasdaq slides 3%
      Jesse Pound
      Carmen Reinicke

      Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday after a key August inflation report came in hotter than expected, hurting investor optimism for cooling prices and a less aggressive Federal Reserve.

      The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 676 points, or 2.1%. The S&P 500 dropped 2.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite sank 3.1%.

      More than 480 stocks in the S&P 500 fell, with Facebook-parent Meta dropping 5.5% and Caesars Entertainment losing 5.7%.

      The August consumer price index report showed a higher-than-expected reading for inflation. Headline inflation rose 0.1% month over month, even with falling gas prices. Core inflation rose 0.6% month over month. On a year-over-year basis, inflation was 8.3%.

      Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting a decline of 0.1% for overall inflation, with a rise of 0.3% for core inflation.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/12/stock-futures-are-higher-as-wall-street-awaits-key-inflation-report-.html

      1. “Core inflation rose 0.6% month over month.”

        Annualized rate of core inflation increase is (1+0.006)^12-1 = 7.4%.

        Is that transitory?

    4. The Financial Times
      Markets Briefing Equities
      Wall Street suffers worst sell-off since June 2020 after inflation data
      Stocks and Treasuries sink as investors predict more aggressive action from the Federal Reserve
      The Federal Reserve building in Washington DC
      Inflation data will be assessed closely by traders ahead of the US central bank’s next monetary policy meeting
      Kate Duguid and Eric Platt in New York and Ian Johnston in London
      4 hours ago

      Wall Street suffered the worst sell-off since the early days of the pandemic after official data showed US inflation increased unexpectedly in August, raising the spectre the Federal Reserve will need to act more aggressively to combat rising prices.

      The benchmark S&P 500 stock index tumbled 4.3 per cent, its worst day since June 2020 with 99 per cent of its companies sliding in value. The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.2 per cent as technology groups seen as most exposed to higher rates bore the brunt of the selling.

      The yield on short-dated government debt that tracks interest rate expectations hit its highest level in almost 15 years, as investors increased their bets that the Fed will have to do more to stamp out soaring inflation.

      Investors on Tuesday priced in a 1-in-3 chance that the US central bank will raise rates by a full percentage point this month, according to data from CME Group rather than a 0.75 percentage point increase that remains the consensus expectation.

      The inflation figures heaped further pressure on policymakers at the US central bank, who have promised to do everything in their power to curtail spiralling prices. Their apparent determination to follow through on the pledge has sparked fears the economy is heading for a hard landing.

      Tech stocks are particularly sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations because the valuations are based largely on future growth prospects. Facebook owner Meta and chipmaker Nvidia were among the biggest losers, both down 9 per cent, while Amazon shed 7 per cent.

      The declines sliced $154bn off Apple’s market valuation and $109bn from Microsoft’s, with both companies registering their biggest daily losses since September 2020.

      The frenzied selling on Tuesday hit nearly every corner of US financial markets. At one point during the trading day, nearly 2,000 stocks trading on the New York Stock Exchange fell in value in tandem, a phenomenon normally seen at times of market stress. Investors raced to hedge against further declines by piling into equity put option contracts that could pay out if the market continues to slide.

      The sharp moves were sparked by official figures showing US consumer prices increased up 0.1 per cent in August from the previous month, compared with expectations for a fall of 0.1 per cent. The annual rate came in at 8.3 per cent, down from 8.5 per cent in July, but higher than the 8.1 per cent Wall Street economists predicted.

      Most worryingly for Fed policymakers, core consumer price growth — which strips out volatile items such as energy and food — rose from 5.9 per cent to 6.3 per cent.
      …

  38. I”m reading a book on booms and busts and I found out that Australia had a huge land/housing boom in the 1880’s (yes, 140 years ago). When it busted in the early 1890’s it took down national GDP by over 20% worse than the Great Depression of the 1930’s. Housing prices didn’t recover to where they had started the boom until the 1910’s.

    Clearly Australia has learned nothing.

  42. Housing’s Global Slump Is Deepening From Rate-Hike Pain
    Bloomberg Markets and Finance
    Sep 11, 2022 The rapid cool down in real estate is threatening to worsen a global economic downturn and is emerging as a key variable for central bankers who want to tamp down inflation.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VxgsyC5Iw8

    3 minutes.

  43. Re: the government will have to step in to prevent the market from crashing.

    He is right. When prices get goosed into the Stratosphere the government has no problem with that. But as soon as the prices start correcting down to realistic levels, it becomes imperative for the government to step in with endless funny money and reflate which it calls recovery.

  44. “Biden Scrambles For Damage Control After Disastrous Inflation Report”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-scrambles-damage-control-after-disastrous-inflation-report

    (snip snip)

    After bragging just four weeks ago that the economy had “zero percent inflation” in the month of July (looking at cherry picked month-over-month figures which completely ignored the highest food price inflation since 1979), President Biden issued yet another insultingly stupid statement in response to Tuesday’s extremely hot CPI print which sent markets into turmoil and rate hike expectations shooting higher.

    And so just minutes after markets began puking in response to today’s CPI, Biden claimed that “Today’s data show more progress in bringing global inflation down in the US economy,” adding “Overall, prices have been essentially flat in our country these last two months.”

    Of course, as we noted earlier when one looks behind the curtains – this is the 27th straight month of rising inflation, including a particularly painful 11.4% increase in the food index YoY – its largest 12-month increase since the period ending May 1979. The ‘food at home’ index rose 13.5%, its largest 12-month increase since the period ending in March 1979.

    And – to be expected, Biden is cherry-picking the least moldy strawberry out of the basket – bragging that “Gas prices are down an average of $1.30 a gallon since the beginning of the summer” (thanks to the admin draining our strategic petroleum reserve). Yet, it’s still up 76% from when Biden was elected.

    Biden also claims that “real wages went up again for a second month in a row,” when in fact they are down for 17 straight months on a YoY basis.

    And now – just four weeks after bragging about “zero inflation,” Biden says “It will take more time and resolve to bring inflation down, which is why we passed the Inflation Reduction Act to lower the cost of healthcare, prescription drugs and energy. ”

    JPMorgan Chase President Daniel Pinto helped with damage control on Tuesday, saying in a post-CPI statement that US consumers are in a “very very good place,” despite revolving consumer credit card balances increasing (and personal savings as a % of disposable income dropping).

    Momentum killer?

    As Bloomberg notes, Tuesday’s report may have hobbled Democrats going into midterms.

    Falling gas prices and two major legislative victories have boosted Democrats’ once improbable bid to retain their House and Senate majorities in the November midterms. So had early signals that red-hot inflation may be easing. But Tuesday’s price growth report will dampen Democrats’ hopes that the worst may be behind them. -Bloomberg

    And as Bloomberg further notes, Biden’s ‘strategy’ may also be upended by “the possibility of a rail strike that could snarl supply chains, disrupt agricultural deliveries and cost the US economy more than $2 billion a day. The Biden administration is pressuring labor unions and freight-rail operators to agree on a new contract before a Friday deadline.”

    Sure…

    1. And so just minutes after markets began puking in response to today’s CPI

      Did the markets really not see this coming? Did they really believe Brandon’s “inflation is over” lie?

          7. There’s plenty of costcos in SD. They sell 36 count cases of coke for 11.49. I know because I buy 2 cases of diet coke there every weekend.

          10. I drink 2 oz. pure cranberry juice (no sugar) with water in a pint glass a couple of times a day. Iz gut 4 u. Right now, Trader Joe’s 32 oz. bottle is $3.69 (shot up from $2.99) in Las Vegas.

        2. I am a pretty thrifty shopper and here in SoCal, I have seen price increases for some items of 50%->100% in just several years.

          Another tactic is “shrinkflation” in which container sizes for anything and everything is shaved back. Example This past weekend: 3.66qt for a container of Clorox bleach which used to be a gallon. BTW, Price ~=$7.00 (what a ripoff!)

          Me thinks major manufacturers are taking advantage of inflation to downsize containers (shrinkflation) to gouge.

          1. Get the pool bleach from walmart for $3.60 a gallon. Its concentration is 50% higher than laundry bleach……. and half the price.

      2. Markets run on hopium and cocaine, and not necessarily in that order, so yeah, 20+ years of frothy dovishness and the markets are absolutely going to drink whatever bullish kool-aid they can find.

    2. When asked about the housing situation Biden stated

      “Realtors are liars, end of quote, stare sternly”.

  45. Unlike our weather, the housing market is cooling off in 92064. I’ve bolded the YoY % changes:
    Single Family August Year to Date
    Key Metrics 2021 2022 Percent Change Thru 8-2021 Thru 8-2022 Percent Change
    New Listings 47 38 – 19.1% 462 450 – 2.6%
    Pending Sales 43 33 – 23.3% 396 323 – 18.4%
    Closed Sales 52 33 – 36.5% 391 321 – 17.9%
    Median Sales Price* $1,237,500 $1,084,000 – 12.4% $1,050,000 $1,200,000 + 14.3%
    Percent of Original List Price Received* 103.1% 94.1% – 8.7% 104.6% 104.2% – 0.4%
    Days on Market Until Sale 16 33 + 106.3% 19 19 0.0%
    Inventory of Homes for Sale 50 55 + 10.0% — — —
    Months Supply of Inventory 1.0 1.4 + 40.0% — — —

  46. How’s that “Build Back Better” working out for ya, ‘Murica?

    Is Biden facing a winter of discontent? US braces for crisis as rail workers plot strike costing $2 BILLION a day, 15,000 nurses walkout in Minnesota and West Coast ports could shutdown amid contracts dispute

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11206075/US-braces-national-railroad-strike-costing-2b-day-threaten-supply-chain-chaos.html

    America is bracing for chaos as tens of thousands of railway, port, and hospital workers look set to strike over the winter – plunging the country into further disruption.

    As many as 60,000 railway workers, 15,000 nurses, and 22,000 West Coast port workers are plotting mass walkouts as they seek better working conditions.

  47. Is It Safer to Pull Your Money Out of the Stock Market or Keep Investing for Now?
    By Chuck Saletta – Sep 13, 2022 at 10:30AM
    Key Points
    – If you lose your job when the market is down, you’ll still need to pay your bills.
    – Your debts should be in control before you start investing.
    – Once your overall financial house is in order, it gets much easier to deal with volatility in the market.
    …
    https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/13/is-it-safer-to-pull-your-money-out-of-the-stock-ma/

  49. The Dow…. it’s cratering.🤣

    Gold and silver are cratering too…. In fact gold and silver are lower today than they were 11 years ago.

  50. “Fed Mouthpiece Speaks: ‘At LEAST 75bps Next Week’ Sends Odds Of 100bps Rate Hike to 47%”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-mouthpiece-speaks-least-75bps-next-week-sends-odds-100bps-rate-hike-47

    (snip)

    A little over an hour ago we reported that while everyone was waiting for the Fed’s WSJ mouthpiece Nick Timiraos to leak whatever it is that Powell wanted markets to know during the Fed’s blackout period, Nomura became the first bank to forecast an out of consensus 100bps rate hike during next week’s FOMC meeting.

    To some this seemed far too high, but the Nomura case just got a powerful boost moments ago when Timiraos hit publish on his long-awaited WSJ market trial balloon in which he said that “the acceleration in inflation last month clinches the case for the Federal Reserve to lift interest rates by AT LEAST 0.75 percentage point at its meeting next week and raises the prospect of hefty increases continuing in coming months.”

    (go to the link to read the rest)

  55. “Animal farm” .. a horse had to work harder ended up sent to a glue factory .. anyway work harder must work harder

    LAWRENCE YUN: You know, any time there is a more spending into the economy, you know, people’s wages are rising at 5%, 6%, which is a very good increases. But all that is being wiped away by rising rents and rising consumer price inflation.

    Now, that is a very difficult challenge because it means that people– Gen Z particularly– they are unable to save up for down payment, which is required to be a successful homeowner. So that is putting a great burden. So the solution to it all is more supply.

    Now, if we have more supply, whether it is product, clothes, television set, but also more home, it will lessen inflation pressure. So we need to increase supply because demand is already high. We just need to get more supply to lessen the inflationary pressure.

    1. It appears that Russian military strategy has been over-reliant on artillery, and the HIMARS weapons have reduced that advantage leaving their poorly trained ground forces vulnerable. I’ve read several comments about Russian officers searching their soldiers rucksacks and executing those found with civilian clothing, which must do wonders for morale.

    2. Russian forces running

      Not an important strategic target, but a great headline! Worth the loss of 1,000 Ukraine soldiers in one day?

  59. Have used home sellers reached the Glengarry Glen Ross phase of the real estate cycle? Or is it more of The Hunger Game phase?

    1. Goldman Sachs preparing layoffs across all departments as soon as next week: report

      Business
      Manhattan home sales plunged nearly 40% as mortgage rates surged: analysis
      By Thomas Barrabi
      September 12, 2022 12:50pm

      Manhattan was among the many markets impacted by a slowdown in the US housing market over the summer, according to a recent analysis.

      Overall, the number of Manhattan homes in contract plunged a whopping 39% year-over-year, according to data from June through August compiled by brokerage firm Serhant. The trend coincided with a spike in mortgage rates over the last several months, with the current average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hovering near 6%.
      …
      https://nypost.com/2022/09/12/manhattan-home-sales-plummeted-this-summer-as-mortgage-rates-surged-analysis/

    2. Real Estate
      Another real estate tech company lays off workers in response to housing slowdown
      Sam Moore, SFGATE
      Sep. 13, 2022
      A sign is posted in front of a home for sale on July 14, 2022, in San Francisco.
      Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

      Realtor.com, the second most visited website for real estate listings in the U.S., is laying off an undisclosed number of employees due to a recent slump in the housing market.

      In an email that was sent to the company’s employees and shared with SFGATE, CEO David Doctorow said slowing sales volume in the real estate market has led the company to take the “difficult step” of reducing its workforce.

      “While we remain bullish on the long-term potential of what is a $200 billion addressable market, we must always take prudent steps to drive improved efficiency, including now,” Doctorow said in the email.
      …
      https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/realtorcom-layoffs-amid-housing-slowdown-17439156.php

  60. Ed Gonzalez
    ·
    Sep 10, 2022
    @SheriffEd_HCSO
    ·
    Follow
    Last night in Channelview at the 16000 blk of First Street, three adult males attempted to force entry into a home. The males were armed and wearing masks. The home was occupied by an adult female, 12-yr-old male, and two 17-yr-old males. One of the 17-yr-old male occupants 1/3

    Ed Gonzalez
    @SheriffEd_HCSO
    ·
    Follow
    retrieved a shotgun and discharged it several times striking two of the suspects. Both males were pronounced deceased at the scene. The 3rd suspect fled in a dark colored, 4-door sedan. There were no other reported injuries. The case will be presented to a grand jury. The 2/3

    https://twitter.com/SheriffEd_HCSO/status/1568584765472743425?s=20&t=gQPAvPpQBRR-PEBjJmlXqw

  61. “California And New York: Do Not Back Off Your World-Beating Green Energy Schemes!”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/09/13/california-and-new-york-do-not-back-off-your-world-beating-green-energy-schemes/

    (a fun snip …)

    “California is in the midst of showing some impressive fortitude just this weekend, with rolling blackouts again threatened for tomorrow. California’s answer: require that more and more new car sales be electric models — thus increasing demand for electricity by as much as 100% over the next 10 to 15 years — while also aggressively closing natural gas power plants. You go, California! Show us all how this can be done!”

    Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

    1. If they chase anyone of means off to Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Utah, Nevada, Texas, etc., California won’t have to worry about power demands at all.

  62. Given how much Asian markets have already CR8Red, would it be safe to park your money there until Wall Street stops CR8Ring?

    1. Business / China Business
      Asia stocks follow overnight US equities plunge after US inflation stokes fears of more aggressive interest-rate hikes
      – All 79 members of the Hang Seng Index but one drop as the index loses 2.6 per cent in morning trading after US inflation accelerated at a faster-than-estimated pace
      – Benchmarks in Japan and Australia fall by more than 2 per cent on the back of the biggest declines in US stocks in more than two years

      Hong Kong stock market
      Zhang Shidong in Shanghai
      Published: 10:18am, 14 Sep, 2022
      Updated: 12:18pm, 14 Sep, 2022
      …
      https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3192405/hong-kong-stocks-follow-overnight-us-equities-rout-slump

    2. The Financial Times
      Equities
      European stocks slide after sharp Wall Street sell-off
      Markets fear rate ‘hike of the century’ will hit global growth
      European shares fell on Wednesday after the worst sell-off on Wall Street since June 2020
      Ian Johnston in London and Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong 3 hours ago

      European shares fell on Wednesday after the worst sell-off on Wall Street since June 2020, as hotter than expected US inflation data fuelled bets of more aggressive interest rate rises by the Federal Reserve.

      The regional Stoxx Europe 600 dropped 0.4 per cent, extending losses from the previous session. The FTSE 100 also slipped 0.5 per cent, even as UK inflation data for August came in cooler than anticipated. In Asian markets, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index lost 2.4 per cent, while Japan’s Topix fell 2 per cent.

      Those declines came after the US’s S&P 500 gauge posted its steepest drop since the early days of the pandemic, tumbling 4.3 per cent on Tuesday, on the back of a higher than forecast inflation reading for August.

      Consumer prices in the world’s largest economy rose by 0.1 per cent in August from the previous month, official data showed, compared with expectations for a decline of 0.1 per cent. The annual rate came in at 8.3 per cent, down from July’s figure of 8.5 per cent but above economists’ estimates of 8.1 per cent.

      The inflation report prompted investors to crank up their expectations of how far and fast the Fed will hoist borrowing costs, with markets now pricing in a 1-in-3 chance that the US central bank will lift rates by a full percentage point this month, according to CME Group data based on trading in federal funds futures. A move of such magnitude would follow two consecutive increases of 0.75 percentage points.

      “Two historically outsized hikes this summer seem to have had a weaker immediate impact on the inflationary landscape than anticipated, leading markets to believe the Fed may be forced to make the hike of the century,” said strategists at JPMorgan.
      …

    3. The Financial Times
      US economy
      Economists braced for Fed to pursue steep rate rises beyond September
      Jump in monthly inflation has reignited fears over the US central bank’s grip on price pressures
      Fed chair Jay Powell
      The US central bank, led by chair Jay Powell, has set a high bar for reconsidering its approach to monetary policy, having been wrongfooted by price rises in the past
      Colby Smith in Washington yesterday

      Economists and investors are braced for aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate increases to continue beyond September after an unexpected jump in monthly inflation reignited fears over the US central bank’s grip on persistent price pressures.

      US consumer price growth accelerated once again in August, defying expectations for a 0.1 per cent monthly decline, as a steep slide in energy prices failed to offset rising costs elsewhere. Meanwhile “core” inflation, which strips out volatile items such as energy and food, registered an alarming 0.6 per cent increase for the month.

      “To call this a disappointment would be an understatement,” said David Rosenberg, chief economist and president of Rosenberg Research. “All we’re left with is the view that the [Federal Open Market Committee] hawks so far continue to have the story right and they are in charge.”

      He added: “Whatever the recession odds were before CPI, even if that’s not your base-case scenario, those probabilities have taken a significant leap forward.”

      Most economists now expect the FOMC to implement a third-consecutive 0.75 percentage point rate rise at the very least at its meeting later this month, in a move that would lift the federal funds rate to a target range of 3 per cent to 3.25 per cent.

      But on Tuesday, traders in fed funds futures contracts also raised the odds of a full percentage point increase in September to roughly 30 per cent, according to CME Group.
      …

    1. Markets
      Rates Jump a Quarter Point Instantly After Key Inflation Report; Now Back to 14-Year Highs
      By: Matthew Graham
      Tue, Sep 13 2022, 3:29 PM

      Mortgage rates were already in the vicinity of the highest levels in 14 years. With large day-to-day swings being extremely common these days, we were only ever one bad day away from making it back to those highs. Today was one of those days!

      The culprit was at least well known and well understood, both before and after it had its impact on rates. This morning brought the scheduled release of August’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key inflation report that has proven to have more power than any other inflation metric when it comes to creating volatility in rates.

      In other words, we already knew that rates would be headed higher if today’s inflation data came out higher than expected, and that’s exactly what happened. In fact, the actual number beat forecasts by much more than the normal gap between reality and forecasts. It’s common to see a deviation of 0.1-0.2%, but today’s was 0.3%.

      Bonds dislike inflation for a variety of reasons. There are broad, practical reasons involving the impact inflation has on bondholders’ returns, but there are also timely, tactical reasons. The latter is a reference to next week’s Fed announcement. The Fed’s job is to fight inflation and one of the ways it does that is to hike its policy rate.

      The Fed Funds Rate isn’t the same as a mortgage rate, but higher Fed Funds Rate expectations tend to push mortgage rates higher. Bottom line: markets now expect the Fed to discuss an even bigger rate hike next week and the bond market is pricing in that possibility today.

      The average mortgage lender is back up into the lower 6’s for conventional 30yr fixed loans. Quotes vary widely depending on the scenario and the presence of upfront costs and discount points. It continues to be the case that many loans require more upfront cost than is historically normal due to the current landscape of mortgage bond pricing.
      …
      https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09132022

      1. “It continues to be the case that many loans require more upfront cost than is historically normal due to the current landscape of mortgage bond pricing.”

        Where would one get the money to pay such high upfront cost?

    2. Bonds
      Bond yields continue climbing following market tumble on hot inflation reading
      Published Wed, Sep 14 2022 5:07 AM EDT
      Natasha Turak

      related investing news
      Stocks could retest lows after August’s fiery inflation shakes up markets
      8 hours ago
      Nomura expects Fed to raise interest rates by a full percentage point next week
      18 hours ago
      Unrelenting inflation means Fed could drive interest rates higher, even faster
      20 hours ago

      U.S. Treasury yields continued to climb higher on Wednesday as investors digested the previous session’s dramatic market route triggered by a hot inflation reading.

      The yield on the 2-year Treasury, the part of the curve most sensitive to Fed policy, was trading 1 basis point higher at around 5:00 a.m. ET to reach 3.773%, at one point hitting as high as 3.805%, its highest level since November 2007. Tuesday’s session saw it surge 17 points.

      Yields move inversely to prices, and a basis point is equal to 0.01%.

      Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was up just over one basis point, trading at 3.439%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up just over half of a basis point at 3.517%.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/14/us-bonds-treasury-yields-in-focus-after-hot-inflation-reading.html

      1. “The yield on the 2-year Treasury, the part of the curve most sensitive to Fed policy, was trading 1 basis point higher at around 5:00 a.m. ET to reach 3.773%, at one point hitting as high as 3.805%, its highest level since November 2007. Tuesday’s session saw it surge 17 points.”

        So yields have fully retraced to the pre-Quantitative Easing era? The bond market is unraveling very quickly.

  64. Shorted-dated bond yields hit fresh multi-year highs on inflation angst
    Contributor
    Stefano Rebaudo Reuters
    Published
    Sep 14, 2022 04:37AM EDT
    Credit: REUTERS/BENOIT TESSIER
    Short-dated government bond yields in the euro zone and the U.S. hit fresh multi-year highs on Wednesday as investors braced for further monetary tightening after U.S. inflation data surprised on the upside.
    By Stefano Rebaudo

    Sept 14 (Reuters) – Short-dated government bond yields in the euro zone and the U.S. hit fresh multi-year highs on Wednesday as investors braced for further monetary tightening after U.S. inflation data surprised on the upside.

    The readings in the U.S. on Tuesday were firm despite an easing in tightness of global supply chains, with analysts highlighting that the data had been driven by the core inflation rate, whose upward trend showed no signs of turning.

    Different signals came from Britain, where lower fuel prices caused an unexpected fall in British consumer price inflation in August.

    Germany’s 2-year yield, more sensitive to rate hikes than long-dated bonds, was up one basis point (bp) at 1.337%, after hitting a fresh 11-year high at 1.446%.

    The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since November 2007 in early London trade at 3.804%, after jumping the day before. A yield curve inversion widened on both days.
    …
    https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/shorted-dated-bond-yields-hit-fresh-multi-year-highs-on-inflation-angst

    1. The Financial Times
      Opinion Unhedged
      Lost innocence
      The inflation fight was always going to be ugly
      Robert Armstrong yesterday
      This article is an on-site version of our Unhedged newsletter.

      Good morning. Sometimes markets move because they learn something new. Other times, they move because they are forced to see what was always right in front of them. I think yesterday was the latter kind of day. Disagree? Email me: robert.armstrong@ft.com

      An unpleasant encounter with reality

      The market had expected — “hoped” may be a better word — that the benign CPI inflation reading for July would be followed by a still more benign one for August. As we all know now, this did not happen. At all. The result is that a chart of month-over-month change in core CPI now shows no appreciable downtrend over the past year. Inflation is certainly not rising. But it sure doesn’t look like it’s falling, either:

      The market responded yesterday by resetting its expectations for Federal Reserve policy and slashing risk asset prices. The “terminal,” or estimated peak Fed policy rate, expected to arrive early next year, rose 28 basis points, to 4.31 per cent. As of Monday, the futures market had been pricing in no chance of a 100 basis point rate increase when the central bank meets next week. By Tuesday evening it reckoned the chances at one in three. The short end of the yield curve leapt, deepening the inversion of 2- and 10-year interest rates. Stocks got throttled. The Nasdaq lost more than 5 per cent. Every sector was down big.
      …

    2. Markets
      CNBC TV
      Watchlist
      LIVE UPDATES
      Updated Wed, Sep 14 2022 8:15 AM EDT
      Stock futures dip after major averages suffer worst day since June 2020
      Samantha Subin

      Stock futures were modestly lower on Wednesday after another hot inflation reading sent the major averages tumbling to their worst day since June 2020 and dampened investors’ expectations of a less hawkish Federal Reserve.

      Futures tied to the Dow Industrial Average were last down 43 points, or about 0.1%. S&P 500 futures ticked down 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures shed about 0.2%.

      The Dow sank more than 1,200 points Tuesday, or nearly 4%, while the S&P 500 lost 4.3%. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 5.2%.

      The market moves came after August’s consumer price index report showed headline inflation rose 0.1% on a monthly basis despite a drop in gas prices.

      The hot inflation report left questions over whether stocks could go back to their June lows or fall even further. It also spurred some fears that the Federal Reserve could potentially hike even higher than the 75 basis points markets are pricing in.

      “It caught the market off guard,” said LPL Financial’s Quincy Krosby. “The market had been expecting at least that we had leveled off — perhaps not moving downward but certainly not climbing higher. It was the wrong direction and the concern, of course, is always translated into what does this mean for the Fed.”
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

  66. Steve Bannon said the SS I mean FBI raided like 35Trump allies recently.

    FBI Tracks Down Mike Lindell On Hunting Trip, Surrounds His Car And Seizes Cell Phone

    by Zero Hedge
    September 13th 2022, 7:59 pm

    Prominent Trump supporter and 2020 election integrity skeptic Mike Lindell says he was stopped by the FBI Tuesday and had his cell phone seized.

    While heading home from a hunting trip with a friend, Lindell said he was at a Hardees in Minnesota when “cars pulled up in front of us, to the side of us and behind us, and I said ‘they’re either bad guys or the FBI,’” he said. “Well, it turns out they were the FBI.

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/fbi-tracks-down-mike-lindell-on-hunting-trip-surrounds-his-car-and-seizes-cell-phone/

Comments are closed.