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The Economy Is Now Like A Car That Has Lost Its Brakes

A report from CBS 8 in California. “‘Sellers are getting a little spooked. They’d like to take their money off the table, take the risk off the table and as a buyer, if you can position yourself correctly you can get a good deal,’ said Chad Baker, a mortgage lender. He said just this week a property in Encinitas that was listed for $1.9 million accepted an all cash offer of $1.35 million. That’s about a 30% cut. According to the San Diego Association of Realtors, the median price of a single family home in the county dropped by 5% last month to $910,000.”

The Los Angeles Times in California. “The 6% mortgage is back. The jump — the latest in a series of mortgage rate increases this year — has the potential to further pump the brakes on a slowing housing market and make it more likely home values will decline. ‘It shrinks your buying ability,’ said Jeff Lazerson, president of brokerage Mortgage Grader. ‘A lot of borrowers are saying: ‘Forget it.'”

The Easy Valley Tribune in Arizona. “Crazy times have hit the Valley’s residential market these days, judging by some of the latest data posted by The Cromford Report, the leading analyst of the Phoenix Metro housing market. The report said sale prices had dropped below final list prices, prompting it to warn this ‘confirms that sellers’ negotiation power is far weaker than it has been in many years.’ One aspect of the market the Cromford Report singled out last week was the number of houses owned by iBuyer companies like Opendoor.”

“‘We do have excessive inventory of empty homes in the hands of iBuyers,’ it said. ‘They continued to buy homes in large numbers during the second quarter and have ended up with far too many homes in their possession during the third quarter. These homes are empty and racking up expenses,’ it continued, adding their inventory ‘has to be driven lower.'”

“It noted that Opendoor is slashing prices to reduce that inventory, but that’s resulted in impacting the overall market – and the pocketbooks of sales agents. ‘With lots of bargain homes on offer below market value, this is partially succeeding in moving homes from active to pending, but it also has the effect of lowering average prices for the market as a whole,’ it said, calling Opendoor ‘large enough to be a significant competitor for other sellers. This discounting also has the unpleasant side-effect of lowering the intrinsic value of the remaining unsold inventory.'”

“And that means, it said, ‘It certainly is bad news for people who depend on healthy sales volume for their income. This includes title company staff, real estate agents and mortgage lenders.'”

The Denver Post. “‘What a difference a few months make. The shift is here, and it is moving fast,’ said Colorado Springs-area Realtor Patrick Muldoon in comments included with the report. ‘Buyers have most of the power now, but are either patient or not interested. After all, why would they be? Every day is a news cycle of bad economic news ranging from stocks, inflation, layoffs and housing data.’ The inventory of homes available for sale rose sharply year-over-year in most counties and more than doubled in two counties — El Paso, up 117.6%, and Broomfield, up 112.1%.”

From Count on 2. “Despite higher sales prices than in previous years, asking prices have come down in the Charleston area–about 30% of sellers dropped their asking price in July according to Redfin. ‘We’re seeing price corrections,’ Incoming President for the South Carolina Realtors Association Rob Woodall said. ‘Now that the market is starting to normalize, people aren’t going to pay an over-asking price because they’re coming back down to what the market will bear and what the house will appraise for.'”

KXAN on Texas. “The August report from the Austin Board of Realtors showed the Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area housing market continued its stabilization trend for the third consecutive month. Active listings increased by 170.2%, which caused the highest inventory level (2.9 months) since September 2018. ‘Austin, along with the other Texas metropolitan areas, may continue to feel the effects of the previously unsustainable housing market due to the lack of inventory,’ said Mark Sprague, the state director of information capital at Independence Title.”

The Free Press in Minnesota. “Recent months of sales declines have cooled the frenzy of buyers bidding up homes to above the asking price. ‘The crazy speculation has stopped,’ said Mankato Realtor Jason Beal. ‘People aren’t buying homes without inspections and no contingencies like they were, so there’s a more balanced market.'”

The Washington Examiner. “Homebuilder confidence has plummeted over the past few months. About 1 in 5 of the homebuilders surveyed reported slashing prices in the last month to limit cancellations or increase sales. Desmond Lachman is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who has been warning for months that the housing market is in a bubble. He told the Washington Examiner that what economists and homebuilders are seeing right now is that bubble popping.”

“Lachman said the housing market decline portends a recession because its effects ripple out into all parts of the broader economic landscape. ‘The housing market is slowing, and as it slows, that spreads to the rest of the economy,’ Lachman said. ‘The builders will get laid off, then they won’t go to restaurants, they won’t buy goods, and so on.'”

From Bloomberg. “Canadian home prices marched lower for the sixth straight month. ‘You have kind of a standoff, where a seller comes to the market, can’t get what they want because the market just can’t support the prices that we saw a couple months ago, and they pull the listing,’ said Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at Bank of Montreal. ‘From an affordability perspective, prices have to grind lower, and sellers are going to have to accept that.'”

The Daily Hive. “The ‘unprecedented‘ price drop expected to hit Canada’s housing market in 2023 seems to have already made its mark in Toronto, as a luxury Yorkville condo just sold for a staggering $1,095,000 under the asking price. Suite 4401 at 50 Yorkville Avenue was originally listed at $7,495,000 when it hit the market on July 11. It sold just over two months later, on September 13, for $6,400,000.”

The Evening Standard in the UK. “Homes in London’s most desirable addresses are almost 50 per cent cheaper in dollar terms than they were at their peak in 2014, according to new research. The weakness of the pound against the greenback over recent years means that hugely expensive areas such as Knightbridge, Chelsea and Notting Hill are all seen as ‘good value’ by wealthy foreign investors. Prices in ‘super prime’ areas reached a high eight years ago before then Chancellor George Osborne slapped far higher stamp duty rates on high value properties.”

DW on Germany. “If you want to know the state of the German economy, just count the number of customers in Nikolaus Bode’s shop. The formula for working this out is fairly simple: If the pawnbroker in the small western city of Siegburg isn’t very busy, the whole country is doing well. But if people are breaking down his doors, that indicates some kind of crisis. This September, Bode has been so busy he can hardly think. And that means Germany is in a mess. ‘A pawnbroker is an indicator,’ Bode told DW. ‘People come here when there is a lot of unemployment or severe economic problems.'”

“‘When the final power bills eventually come and the monthly payments increase accordingly, I expect an influx,’ Bode predicted. ‘The amount of foreclosures is also going to rise rapidly because people simply won’t be able to pay for their homes.'”

The Reporter Ethiopia. “‘The housing appreciation rate this year is appalling. As nobody knows where the devaluation will stop, nobody knows where the end of the housing price bubble is,’ said Biruk Shimelis, deputy general manager at Flintstone Homes. The standard housing sales price currently is between 100,000 and 300,000 birr per square meter. This is a dramatic increment from around 30,000 birr per square meter last year. To make things worse, experts say investors’ disinterest in keeping their money in birr is already wreaking havoc on the whole economy. ‘The price bubble does not stop at property. It has a domino effect on other services and goods,’ Biruk added. ‘The economy is in its worst shape and is now like a car that has lost its brakes.'”

From Forbes. “Pan Sutong’s empire at its peak had few rivals. The 59-year-old property mogul had once amassed a $12.2 billion fortune that included a palatial mansion in Hong Kong virtually next door to the city’s wealthiest person, Li Ka-shing. He owned vineyards in California and France, as well as a horse-breeding and training ground in Australia stretched across more than 1,200 acres. His master plan was to build Goldin Metropolitan, a sprawling mini-city in Tianjin, a port of about 14 million people some 85 miles southeast of Beijing. His project would encompass 12 tower blocks, 33 mansions and the tallest skyscraper in China, rising 117 stories into the air.”

“But Pan’s plans are now unraveling under a mountain of debt. Work on his pet project has largely ground to a halt and creditors are seeking the liquidation of his companies in both Hong Kong and Bermuda. Even his mansion in Hong Kong had to be remortgaged multiple times to raise much-needed cash. A unit of Deutsche Bank has filed a petition in Bermuda to apply for the liquidation of Goldin Financial Holdings, the Hong Kong-listed firm that holds Pan’s wine, finance and real estate development businesses.”

“‘He has to find a way to pay off those debts, or reach a new agreement with the lenders,’ says Kenny Ng, a securities strategist at Everbright Securities. ‘Otherwise, he has no choice but to go bankrupt.’ Yan Yuejin, research director at the Shanghai-based E-house China Research Institute, says Pan will seek to avoid selling the assets and plots of lands in Tianjin to repay creditors because doing so would amount to acknowledging failure. It would also mean breaking up his real estate company.”

“‘The Tianjin project is grandiose, and it’s hard to give up for Pan,’ Yan says. ‘But if everything else fails, then he needs to sell it in exchange for cash to solve his debt problems.'”

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  2. ‘He said just this week a property in Encinitas that was listed for $1.9 million accepted an all cash offer of $1.35 million. That’s about a 30% cut’

    via GIPHY

      1. 08/03/2022 Price Changed $1,899,000 $903
        06/27/2022 Price Changed $1,999,000 $951
        06/15/2022 Listed $2,149,000 $1,022

  3. ‘With lots of bargain homes on offer below market value, this is partially succeeding in moving homes from active to pending, but it also has the effect of lowering average prices for the market as a whole,’ it said, calling Opendoor ‘large enough to be a significant competitor for other sellers. This discounting also has the unpleasant side-effect of lowering the intrinsic value of the remaining unsold inventory’

    ‘And that means, it said, ‘It certainly is bad news for people who depend on healthy sales volume for their income. This includes title company staff, real estate agents and mortgage lenders’

    Wa happened to my shortage Cromford?

    1. With lots of bargain homes on offer below market value

      There’s no such thing as “below market value,” that IS market value.

  4. ‘Now that the market is starting to normalize, people aren’t going to pay an over-asking price because they’re coming back down to what the market will bear and what the house will appraise for’

    Sound lending!

    1. Code language for; “appraisers and mortgage brokers covering their tracks and running scared.”

      The reality is they got a problem going all the way back to 2011. And that problem is documented and it’s not going away.

      Charleston, SC Housing Prices Crater 27% YOY As Land And Lot Prices Across The US Plummet

      https://www.movoto.com/charleston-sc/market-trends/

  5. You can’t attribute this to stupidity any more. This is the willful, deliberate destruction of our cities by the Democrat-Bolsheviks.

    Denver allocates $2 MILLION in taxpayer funds to provide homeless people with $12,000 in no-strings-attached cash – as a last-ditch effort to lift them out of destitution, combat soaring crime rates and clean up squalid encampments

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11223033/Denver-set-provide-140-homeless-people-12-000-cash-no-strings-attached.html

    Denver is set to provide 140 homeless people with $12,000 in no-strings-attached cash in an attempt to help lift them out of destitution – and combat the squalid encampments and soaring crime rates plaguing the Mile-High City.

    The city has allocated $2million from the American Rescue Plan Act to fund the program, which will be run by the Denver Basic Income Project.

    1. “The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, also called the COVID-19 Stimulus Package or American Rescue Plan, Pub.L. 117–2, is a US$1.9 trillion economic stimulus bill passed by the 117th United States Congress and signed into law by President Joe Biden on March 11, 2021, to speed up the country’s recovery from the economic and health effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing recession.”

      Were they withholding that money until the midterms?

      1. Dumver is going to become even more uninhabitable. Maybe we can call it “The Philadelphia of the Rockies”

    3. How are they going to buy rimz when they don’t have a car.

      Might as well just burn that 12k it would at least keep them warm for a bit.

    4. Most of these UBI experiments are designed to succeed. The SJWs know that if only a few people get the money, prices in general won’t rise. Then the SJWs will cherry pick a very few responsible families, knowing that the recipients will treat the money as a windfall to pay off debt or get a better job. The SJWs will then point and say: “See, it works! Let’s do this for everybody!” Of course, when everybody gets money, the prices just rise to absorb the cash, and the irresponsible will houf it up their noses.

      I said “most” because this latest stunt in Denver is just going to hurt the SJW cause. There are very few responsible homeless people. They’re just going to OD very quickly.

  6. How are those globalist imports working out for ya, UK sheeple?

    Moment police officers are pelted with bottles ‘after flag was torn down from a temple’ during another night of violence on streets of Leicester ‘between young Muslims and Hindus’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11224219/Moment-police-officers-pelted-bottles-night-violence-Leicester.html

    This is the shocking moment police officers are pelted with bottles on another night of violence in Leicester, with two men having been arrested for the ‘serious disorder’.

    The startling footage shows a chaotic scene in Green Lane Road, east Leicester, with police separating the two sides of an ‘unplanned protest’ as they shout for people to get back and go home.

  7. ‘When the final power bills eventually come and the monthly payments increase accordingly, I expect an influx,’ Bode predicted. ‘The amount of foreclosures is also going to rise rapidly because people simply won’t be able to pay for their homes’

    But yer dancing cowgirl will still have a straw up his nose.

    1. I just got my natgas bill for this month: $16.47. And that’s with Brandon trying to sabotage production.

        1. Water heater and cooktop. Dryer is electric. Heater not running now, In the depths of winter it can be $150.

          I was surprised it was that low, Was gone for two weeks on vacation, so I suppose that had an impact as the summer bill is usually in the 30’s.

  8. They’d like to take their money off the table, take the risk off the table and as a buyer, if you can position yourself correctly you can get a good deal,’ said Chad Baker, a mortgage lender.

    This “buyer” is positioning himself on his lawn chair, popcorn in hand, waiting for this party to really get started. Anyone who buys now is an utter moron.

    1. Yo Randy…with the pending foreclosures and evictions, I am going to nab two ( 2 ) more rentals to be occupied by the newly homeless. After two weeks of sleeping in the oh-so-comfortable Beemer or Audi and hearing the kidlets and the screaming banshee yelling in his ear, the male figure of the family will be willing to rent from me just to quiet the maddening noise of whimpering and crying from the back seat. I just enjoy being the proud provider of sub-standard over priced housing to the poor-downtrodden people of no consequence, Generous Uncle Joe will finance the largest share of the rental payment ! And if you cannot see the dripping sarcasm in this, go back down to your mama’s basement. PICAPOI ( Politically InCorrect And Proud Of It ).

      1. I just enjoy being the proud provider

        You’re all over the place, but I think you mean facetiousness (rather than sarcasm) because you’re a good guy – you probably tell people that all the time. That’s sarcasm, btw.

        Still own Comcast/Xfinity? I’d think you’d have better things to do than to hang around here (more sarcasm.)

        Joshua Tree time.

          1. No clue. Do you?

            I just hate his attitude and his kind. Doesn’t help that my experience with landlords hasn’t been great (except one.) I have read, more than once, LL posts saying they’re serving humanity…🤬

            Find it a little funny that he filled in the Website blank with his ISP.

        3. You’re all over the place

          No kidding! Homeless in a Beemer or Audi?! Speaking from experience, you need not insignificant disposable income for those cars.

  10. ‘They continued to buy homes in large numbers during the second quarter and have ended up with far too many homes in their possession during the third quarter.

    Die, speculator scum.

    1. They were planning to rent the places out to pay the loans, sell the RBS (rental-backed securities) to use for maintenance and extra profit, and wait for appreciation. It worked last time. But this time they bought too high.

  11. ‘With lots of bargain homes on offer below market value, this is partially succeeding in moving homes from active to pending, but it also has the effect of lowering average prices for the market as a whole,’ it said, calling Opendoor ‘large enough to be a significant competitor for other sellers.

    Those “bargain homes” aren’t on offer “below market value” – their selling price represents the new market value (but not for long as the cratering accelerates). This is as good as it gets, greedheads – the stampede for the exits is just getting started. I’ve got all the time in the world – you don’t.

  12. “And that means, it said, ‘It certainly is bad news for people who depend on healthy sales volume for their income. This includes title company staff, real estate agents and mortgage lenders.’”

    I’m more concerned about the millions of people who can barely afford to rent, much less buy.

  13. ‘Buyers have most of the power now, but are either patient or not interested. After all, why would they be? Every day is a news cycle of bad economic news.’

    I smell fear. Is that you, underwater FBs?

  14. These affirmative action MSM “commentators” are a joke. Remind me which race is committing unprovoked violence every day against whites and Asians.

    Blacks Agree On MSNBC: ‘White People Turn Violent When They Don’t Get Their Way’

    https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/mark-finkelstein/2022/09/17/blacks-agree-msnbc-white-people-turn-violent-when-they-dont

    On Tiffany Cross’s show MSNBC show on Saturday, resident provocateur Elie Mystal of The Nation made an invidious generalization about white people that would be condemned as racist if made in respect of people of another race.

    Commenting on Donald Trump’s statement that there would be “big problems” in the country if he is indicted, and the possibility of violence, Mystal said:

    The cause of the problem, of course, is Trump himself and his MAGA acolytes themselves, and the people who are willing to do the violence in Trump’s name. Again, I’m not, I guess I want to say that I’m not surprised that he’s threatening this because, A, he’s literally done it before. And B, this is literally what conservative white folks do when they don’t get their way. They turn violent . . . White people turn violent when they don’t politically get their way. All the damn time in this country. It’s what they do!”

  15. Reading the New York Times for free.

    Echoing Trump, These Republicans Won’t Promise to Accept 2022 Results (9/18/2022):

    “Nearly two years after President Donald J. Trump refused to accept his defeat in the 2020 election, some of his most loyal Republican acolytes might follow in his footsteps.

    When asked, six Trump-backed Republican nominees for governor and the Senate in midterm battlegrounds would not commit to accepting this year’s election results, and another five Republicans ignored or declined to answer a question about embracing the November outcome. All of them, along with many other G.O.P. candidates, have pre-emptively cast doubt on how their states count votes.

    Among the party’s Senate candidates, Ted Budd in North Carolina, Blake Masters in Arizona, Kelly Tshibaka in Alaska and J.D. Vance in Ohio all declined to commit to accepting the 2022 results. So did Tudor Dixon, the Republican nominee for governor of Michigan, and Geoff Diehl, who won the G.O.P. primary for governor of Massachusetts this month.

    “The danger of a Trumpist coup is far from over,” said Rosa Brooks, a law professor at Georgetown University who in early 2020 convened a group to brainstorm ways Mr. Trump could disrupt that year’s election. “As long as we have a significant number of Americans who don’t accept principles of democracy and the rule of law, our democracy remains in jeopardy.”

    https://archive.ph/7vA2q

    1. “As long as we have a significant number of Americans who don’t accept principles of democracy and the rule of law, our democracy remains in jeopardy.”

      These globalists stand the truth on its head. They want nothing less than a one-party state where corrupt Democrat-Bolshevik apparatchiks, captured and subverted institutions of government, and the media all implement globalist diktats with any resisters declared “extremists” and banished from society.

  16. ‘A pawnbroker is an indicator,’ Bode told DW. ‘People come here when there is a lot of unemployment or severe economic problems.’”

    Germans elected globalist Quislings. They are getting exactly what they deserve.

    1. It’s a start.

      The other aspect of the last 2 years were all the contactless checkin apps to get people used to digital IDs which proliferated and also made there way into schools and various aspects of people’s lives.

      1. The other aspect of the last 2 years were all the contactless checkin apps to get people used to digital IDs

        I never did that.

      2. It was so funny, they made such a big deal of contactless RFID chips where I was supposed to just wave my debit card.. and then I had to punch in my PIN anyway. Meanwhile, did you see the part where the CDC said COVID doesn’t really spread on surfaces? Yeah, that was piece of news was suppressed pretty hard.

    1. “With these higher interest rates, mortgages are up about 40% from a year ago. “Buyers just don’t have the 40% extra money to put towards housing every month,” Fairweather said.”

      That’s terrible! Housing is a god given right! 🙂

  19. Reading the New York Times for free.

    New Boosters Test Covid-Weary Nation. Shots Are Here. Do Americans Care? (9/18/2022):

    “With a jumble of confusion, eagerness and vaccine fatigue, America embarked in earnest last week on a sprawling new campaign to get Omicron-specific boosters into the arms of a pandemic-weary country.

    The new boosters are one of the last remaining weapons in America’s arsenal against the coronavirus, now that the country has scrapped most requirements to mask, quarantine or distance as the smoldering pandemic has faded into the background for many. The push for a new vaccine — barely noticed so far by some people — will test how the country responds at a time when the sense of crisis over Covid has abated.

    Millions of doses of boosters targeting the hyper-contagious Omicron variant arrived with little ceremony at pharmacies, nursing homes and clinics across the country, ready to be administered in what health officials now expect to become a yearly inoculation ritual akin to a flu shot.

    The rollout felt methodical but muted compared with the frenzied urgency of earlier waves of vaccinations, when thousands of people jockeyed outside stadiums for scarce doses and politicians got their shots on live television. It was a picture that came into focus in interviews with more than 50 health officials and Americans getting (or refusing) the booster across five states.”

    https://archive.ph/jnCte

    1. a sprawling new campaign to get Omicron-specific boosters into the arms of a pandemic-weary country.

      Weary?The only thing we are weary of is the never ending nagging to get jabbed.

    1. did you read the property history? Cuz it’s not down 100k. (realtors are liars, remember)

      it sold in 2000 for just under 200k. rented for a while, then on the market August 2022 for 540k reduced two weeks later to 520k and now reduced to 499k.

      that’s 41k. not even 10% and still more than twice what it sold for 2 years ago (well almost 3 at this point).

  21. September 17th 2022, 2:22 pm

    Logan went on to explain that a high-level source within the globalist “cult” at the United Nations told her that the plan involves bringing in 100 million people into the U.S. to then justify combining Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. into one governmental entity.

    But what we’re already doing is that we’re living under their policy, where they’ve made the right to migrate a ‘human right,’ recognized by the UN in 2018 and that now supersedes our sovereign rights,

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/lara-logan-bidens-invasion-of-southern-border-part-of-plan-for-global-government/

    19 DECEMBER 2018

    General Assembly Endorses First-Ever Global Compact on Migration, Urging Cooperation among Member States in Protecting Migrants

    The General Assembly endorsed the recently adopted Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration today, the first-ever international cooperation framework for effectively addressing issues that concern the world’s 258 million people on the move and countries of origin, transit and destination.

    https://press.un.org/en/2018/ga12113.doc.htm

    1. that the plan involves bringing in 100 million people into the U.S. to then justify combining Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. into one governmental entity

      Hmmm … eliminate 100-200 million people via the jab, then import millions of Nuevos Americanos to replace them.

      That said, convincing Mexicans into surrendering their sovereignty to what will be a US dominated union, won’t be easy. But the real goal here is to radically transform the demographics of the USA.

      1. Millions of Mexicans got the jab, too. And a lot of them got the Russian jab (Sputnik V) which is probably just as bad if not worse than the alternatives. “We’re all in this together.”

      2. That said, convincing Mexicans into surrendering their sovereignty to what will be a US dominated union, won’t be easy.

        I’m not so sure most Mexicans, especially in the middle and upper classes, would go along with being subsumed into such a union. They have their own culture, history, and heritage, and place a strong value on family, which is anathema to the globalists. The current Mexican president a buffoon, but he ran on a platform of opposition to “neoliberal” economics and is a nationalist.

      3. What percentage of these high level UN types do you reckon are dual citizens with Israel or at least highly sympathetic? My bet would be greater than 50%.

        1. I just received a survey from DeSantis and there were many questions about Israel and even the Holocaust which I found very odd for a governor considering running for the White House.

          1. DeSantis does appear to be more refined than your typical camo-wearing, mouth-breathing, evangelical alligator poacher.

          2. DeSantis is like Trump. Can’t kiss enough Israeli tuchus. I’d vote for either or both, but don’t like that at all.

  23. “‘He has to find a way to pay off those debts, or reach a new agreement with the lenders,’ says Kenny Ng, a securities strategist at Everbright Securities. ‘Otherwise, he has no choice but to go bankrupt.’

    Yer quite the security strategist, Kenny. I’d have never figured that out on my own.

  24. Reading the Washington Post for free.

    A hard 2020 lesson for the midterms: Our politics are calcified (9/16/2022):

    “Voters and leaders in the two major parties are not only more ideologically distant from each other but also more likely to describe each other in harsh terms. In the fall of 2020, 90 percent of Americans said there were important differences in what the parties stood for — the highest number recorded in almost 70 years of American National Election Study surveys.

    But polarization is not the whole story. Something more is happening. Voters are increasingly tied to their political loyalties and values. They have become less likely to change their basic political evaluations or vote for the other party’s candidate. This is not just polarization but calcification. And just as it does in the body, calcification produces rigidity in our politics — even when dramatic events suggest the potential for big changes.

    Calcified politics and partisan parity combine to produce a self-reinforcing cycle. When control of government is always within reach, there is less need for the losing party to adapt and recalibrate. And if it stays on the same path, voters have little reason to revise their political loyalties.

    In our research on the 2020 election, we found evidence of calcified politics everywhere. Major events like the coronavirus pandemic and Floyd’s murder did not disrupt partisan alignments. Instead, those events were subsumed into the existing axis of partisan conflict. Trump’s push to reopen the country in April 2020 created partisan divisions on policies such as closing businesses and restricting travel.”

    https://archive.ph/Wy8Z6

    CCP Flu didn’t close businesses, government closed businesses.

    1. President Donald J. Trump in Youngstown, Ohio last night:

      “Under Biden, Pelosi, Schumer, and the Ultra-Left Democrat Congress, our country is being ripped apart, and the American Dream is being torn to shreds.

      The stock market just had one of the worst 7-day periods in history, in one of its worst years in history. Inflation just reached another historic high. Surging food, energy, and electricity prices are busting family budgets, crushing small businesses, and causing shortages, suffering, mayhem, and despair. Yet Biden and the Democrat Congress keep spending us further into oblivion, pouring fuel on the inflation fire, and incinerating trillions of dollars of Middle-Class wealth.

      The economy is crashing, your 401ks are collapsing, murders, shootings, stabbings, rapes, and carjackings are skyrocketing; bloodthirsty criminals are laying waste to Democrat-run cities; the southern border has been completely erased; our country is being invaded by millions of illegal aliens from all over the planet; and left-wing sickos are pumping toxic anti-American propaganda into the minds of our youth.

      The choice this November is simple: If you want to continue this national catastrophe, vote for the Radical Democrats. If you want to stop the destruction of America, you must VOTE REPUBLICAN.

      The unhinged persecution of me, my staff, and my supporters by the Radical Democrats and the Deep State is a form of political repression unlike anything our nation has ever seen. Everyone associated with this travesty will go down in history as scoundrels and arsonists who tried to demolish our justice system, shatter our most sacred traditions, and wipe out the very foundations of our democracy – for their own selfish partisan gain.

      But no matter what our sick and deranged political establishment throws at me, no matter what they do to me, I will endure their torment and oppression, and I will do it willingly. They will NEVER get me to stop fighting for you, the American People.

      I will never quit—because the fate of our country is at stake. Our cruel and vindictive political class is not just coming after me—they are coming after YOU. They have already taken away your vote and your voice, and now they want to take away your freedom.

      As Biden laid out in his hateful and extremely divisive speech in Philadelphia this month, the Radical Democrats view 75 million Americans as enemies to be canceled and suppressed. They want to censor you from the internet, banish you from the public square, get you fired from your jobs, target you for destruction with 87,000 new IRS agents, use the FBI to spy on patriotic parents, and criminalize political dissent as if we were a third-world dictatorship.

      But the thugs and tyrants attacking our movement have NO IDEA of the sleeping giant they have awoken. The American People will never accept the corruption and ruination of our beloved country. On November 8th, we are going to VOTE in record numbers—and we are going to send these left-wing lunatics a message they cannot cancel, silence, or ignore!”

      https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/09/exclusive-key-excerpts-president-trumps-speech-youngstown-ohio-economy-crashing-401ks-collapsing-left-wing-sickos-pumping-toxic-anti-americ/

      1. On November 8th, we are going to VOTE in record numbers—and we are going to send these left-wing lunatics a message they cannot cancel, silence, or ignore!”

        There’s a Stalin quote that comes to mind.

        1. I’m less worried about this than many. The hatred for Trump was — is — hot enough that assembling a couple thousand mules wasn’t that difficult. But do the mules harbor the the same hate for, say, Mehmet Oz? Would they risk it again, especially if they know they’re being watched?
          My guess is no.

          1. Uh, did you forget that Brandon said that anyone who isn’t a Dem is a “semi-fascist”? Of course the mules will show up. Those MAGAs have to be destroyed.

        2. Just checked. My gubernatorial recall ballot is still “outbound” despite being dropped off alongside my husband’s counted ballot in a “secure” yellow bag at a polling station. My husband’s ballot should have been more problematic because I was dropping it off. I completed his ballot and inserted it the same way as mine. The only difference was the signatures required on the envelope.

    3. Calcified politics and partisan parity combine to produce a self-reinforcing cycle.

      Gen-Z is the first generation to rely on the internet, rather than legacy (globalist) media for news and information. They’re also the generation most screwed over by the current crony capitalist status quo. So there’s hope that they will vote out corrupt fossils like Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell, and vote in political novices/outsiders rather than the same-old, same-old.

  25. Excuses for having sex on public transportation

    1 – I’m homeless

    2 – I have Autism

    Advice to said homeless Autistic couple

    Go F in the park?

    Whatever happened to get a room?

    Ok they’re homeless, how about find a dumpster?

    Commuter Angrily Confronts Couple Engaging in Alleged Sex Act on Bus: ‘You Don’t F**k on the Bus, Mate’

    ETHAN LETKEMAN
    17 Sep 2022

    A couple’s alleged sex act in the back of a bus was interrupted by a commuter who was disgusted by what he saw.

    The wild scene was captured on video on a suburban bus route in Melbourne, Australia, according to news.com.au.

    https://www.facebook.com/100043926194508/videos/754819945579622/

    https://www.breitbart.com/pre-viral/2022/09/17/commuter-angrily-confronts-couple-engaging-in-alleged-sex-act-on-bus-you-dont-fk-on-the-bus-mate/

    1. The globalists are the crony capitalists who head these massive corporations, who work in lockstep with the bought and paid for politicians. Corporations are the enemy of the American people.

      1. Corporations are the enemy of the American people.

        It’s the interlocking directorates of multi-national organizations that are the enemy of national sovereignty.

          3. symbolism
            Besides the voice of God thing? Missing it, looked for the usual (checkerboard floor, M-shaped apron – looking at you Google Mail, triple 666s, owls).

            Nice eye on the tomb in “Being There”. I had forgotten all about Chauncey walking on water at the end.

          4. Nice eye on the tomb in “Being There”. I had forgotten all about Chauncey walking on water at the end.

            Good eye!

          5. This moving explains so much. I only saw it in the last couple of years. Hubby knew I’d get the ending. Some scenes were a bit awkward with my father watching too.

    2. Why would any white person do business with companies that hate them?

      Since most people need a car, from which woke corporation should they buy one?

      Fortunately, I put so few miles on my cars (2000+ per car per year) that I probably won’t ever need to buy a another one, unless one of them is wrecked or stolen. Still like the idea of buying a lightly used muscle car in say 2024 once the repo and used car lots are bulging with inventory. Of course, that assumes the country hasn’t been destroyed by then.

  27. A reader sent these in:

    Just got an updated mortgage quote. (Non-QM) 30yr fixed at 7.875%

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1571215033819963392

    Another day in nyc

    https://twitter.com/WorldLatinHoney/status/1570949556715794434

    gawd help us all. this is the result of a low-for-long interest rate environment polluted by FOMO and tunnel vision.

    https://twitter.com/d_demelis/status/1571178906568519680

    Anyone who claims it was subprime probably was too young when 08 happened. There were more prime mortgages defaulted on than subprime. I just laugh and say, “you don’t know what you’re talking about”

    https://twitter.com/gshortelljr/status/1571223244488966150

    Another reader sent this in:

    $707,889 5 bd 3 ba 3,148 sqft
    Price cut: $1K (9/14)
    24315 W Morning Vista Ln, Wittmann, AZ 85361

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/24315-W-Morning-Vista-Ln-Wittmann-AZ-85361/71625291_zpid/

    Date Event Price
    9/14/2022 Price change $707,889 (-0.1%) $225/sqft

    9/12/2022 Price change $708,889 (0%) $225/sqft

    9/7/2022 Price change $708,999 (0%) $225/sqft

    9/6/2022 Price change $709,000 (-0.1%) $225/sqft

    8/20/2022 Price change $709,888 (-1.1%) $226/sqft

    8/17/2022 Price change $718,000 (+0%) $228/sqft

    8/15/2022 Price change $717,999 (0%) $228/sqft

    8/11/2022 Price change $718,000 (-6.5%) $228/sqft

    8/9/2022 Price change $768,000 (-0.2%) $244/sqft

    8/4/2022 Price change $769,888 (-0.4%) $245/sqft

    8/2/2022 Price change $773,000 (-0.1%) $246/sqft

    7/31/2022 Price change $773,800 (0%) $246/sqft

    7/29/2022 Price change $773,889 (0%) $246/sqft

    7/23/2022 Price change $773,999 (0%) $246/sqft

    7/18/2022 Price change $774,000 (-0.6%) $246/sqft

    7/14/2022 Price change $779,000 (-0.1%) $247/sqft

    7/8/2022 Price change $779,888 (0%) $248/sqft

    7/7/2022 Price change $780,000 (-0.1%) $248/sqft

    7/3/2022 Price change $780,900 (-0.5%) $248/sqft

    6/22/2022 Price change $784,900 (+1993.1%) $249/sqft

    4/13/2018 Sold $37,500 (-79.2%) $12/sqft

    11/30/2007 Sold $180,624 $57/sqft

    2. And now, ladies and gentlemen, a miracle:

      “6/22/2022 Price change $784,900 (+1993.1%) $249/sqft

      4/13/2018 Sold $37,500 (-79.2%) $12/sqft”

      Is the seller trying to get the Guiness Book of Records entry for longest Dutch auction in history?

    3. gawd help us all. this is the result of a low-for-long interest rate environment polluted by FOMO and tunnel vision.

      My gut’s saying this poster is on the hook for more than 1%.

  28. I am now going to do things that in years past would not have been accomplished because I would have been wasting my time watching the (to me) meaningless lives of those who play, broadcast, advertise and own the teams and games of the NFL.

    1. I will catch part of the Broncos game later, cheering them to lose. I can’t wait for there to be no joy in Dumver as their new super super QB makes no difference and they have another losing season.

        1. If say the Broncos start the season 0-5 it would be considered a huge disaster in Dumver and the entire state. If you were to head out to King Soopers today, you would see an army of losers wearing a jersey with another man’s name on it, picking up junk food “for the game.”

          The Broncos are like a religion here. That they’ve stunk for years now, with many losing seasons, is a bone in every acolyte’s throat.

  29. “Woke” Pentagon perfumed princes will never tell lawmakers the truth: their systematic discrimination against white male troops, pushing of “woke” agendas, elevation of incompetents to positions of senior leadership due to “diversity” and “inclusivity” trumping merit, and criminal vaccine mandates have caused countless white males to reject the idea of serving in the armed forces of a globalist regime that is implacably hostile to them and their interests.

    Lawmakers press Pentagon for answers as military recruiting crisis deepens

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/27/lawmakers-pentagon-military-recruiting-00048286

    Lawmakers from both parties are putting increasing pressure on the Pentagon to fix the recruitment crisis that threatens to leave the military well short of its goals to bring new troops aboard this year, in what is widely considered the worst recruiting environment since the end of the Vietnam War.

    While leaders from the different military branches have all acknowledged the problem, they also have been unable to move the needle in a positive direction, as the desire of young Americans to join the military falls off the statistical cliff.

      1. Oh the irony: The Soy who voted for Brandon for free community college end up getting drafted to fight in Ukraine.

  30. “Biden Administration Intentionally Weakening Military: Retired General”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-administration-intentionally-weakening-military-retired-general

    (snip)

    When the United States acts, the world is always watching, and one of the loudest messages since President Joe Biden took office came from how the United States handled its withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021.

    What message did that send globally to other government leaders who may see America as an adversary? That was a question asked by Tony Perkins, president of Family Research Council, during a panel discussion Thursday about America’s role on the world stage at the Pray Vote Stand Summit in Atlanta hosted by FRC Action, the legislative affiliate of Family Research Council.

    “I think that will go down in history as the worst foreign policy failure in U.S. history. Every decision that was made was wrong,” said Lt. General (Ret.) William Boykin, executive vice president at Family Research Council. “What did that say to the rest of the world? It said that we have weak leadership. And you have to ask yourself, why did Vladimir Putin refrain from attacking Ukraine during the Trump administration? And then he went in with barrels blazing, under the Biden administration, and I will tell you, I think a lot of that goes back to the weakness that people—both our adversaries and our friends—recognized in the Biden administration.”

    Other countries recognize that the Biden administration is weak and indecisive on many issues, he said, not just how the U.S. military left Afghanistan.

    Boykin mentioned Biden’s approach to the Paris climate change treaty and his efforts to get the United States back into the Iran nuclear deal, formally called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

    “What’s the value to the United States? And what’s the value to our allies, to put Iran on a pathway to nuclear warheads,” Boykin said. “I think we’re going to continue to see the consequences of not only the pullout of Afghanistan, but stupid decisions that have been made by the administration, one of which is … our president shut down our pipeline, and then turned around and went to the Saudis.”

    Boykin said there were several Saudi nationals flying the planes on 9/11 and that Saudi Arabia has been a major sponsor of terrorism. Despite this, Biden went to Saudi Arabia and to Russia to ask for oil after shutting down America’s oil production, Boykin said.

    “Does that make sense to anybody? It’s the most foolish thing,” he said. “They see that kind of decision making, and they see us as being weak, and they see this as a time when they can take advantage of us.”

    Weakening Military
    Boykin believes weakness is more than an international perception, and he gave examples of how Biden is intentionally weakening the military, including kicking out servicemembers who refused to get the COVID-19 shot and teaching critical race theory and inclusion tolerance instead of teaching how to be in a constant state of readiness for war.

    “All of these things that have nothing to do with the mission and everything to do with the agenda of the administration—you are doing them an injustice and ultimately you’re going to pay the price for that,” Boykin said.

    “At the same time, they’re turning around and writing to old generals like me, saying, ‘We need help recruiting because we just can’t recruit enough people.’ Well let me explain to you how this thing of mathematics works. You get rid of all of them, and then those who are watching from the outside say, ‘I don’t want a part of that.’ And those on the inside, many of them leave on their own.”

    Many in leadership at the Pentagon got their start under President Barack Obama, Boykin said.

    “If they’re compromised—if they lack focus, the question we need to ask as a nation is, who’s mentoring the next generation of leaders? Who’s bringing up the warrior leaders for the future? The answer is nobody,” he said. “And that’s the hardest thing to fix in terms of restoring the Navy and the Army and Air Force and the Marine Corps.”

    China Is Watching
    Perkins directed the conversation to China and asked panelist Gordon Chang, author of “The Coming Collapse of China,” how China likely views the Biden administration’s moves.

    “We don’t have to speculate. The Communist Party propaganda was very clear,” Chang said.

    The day that Kabul fell to the Taliban in Afghanistan, Chang said, Chinese newspapers declared that China would invade Taiwan at some point, and that when this happens, the island will fall within hours and the United States will not come to help.

  31. Experts say Charlotte housing marking is ‘cooling down’ even though prices are increasing
    WCNC
    Sep 18, 2022 If you’re looking to buy a house in the Charlotte metro, you’ll want to read this. New data from the Re/Max National Housing Report for August 2022 showed in Charlotte, home sales are down 20% and there’s a lot more inventory.

    A few months ago, it was an all-out bloodbath for a place to live. But Austin Walker learned it’s a different fight now.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jg_wKgCEge4

    2:20.

  33. “An opinion piece published by the World Economic Forum lauds how “\’billions’ of people complied with ‘restrictions’ imposed as a result of lockdown, suggesting they would do the same under the guise of reducing carbon emissions.”

    https://summit.news/2022/09/16/wef-piece-lauds-how-billions-across-the-world-complied-with-lockdown-restrictions/

    (snip)

    The article is titled ‘My Carbon’: An approach for inclusive and sustainable cities’ and was written by Mridul Kaushik, Mission Director, Smart Cities Mission, Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs of India.

    The subject of the piece is how to convince people to adopt “personal carbon allowance programs” given that such schemes have so far been largely unsuccessful.

    However, Kaushik notes that improvements in tracking and surveillance technology are helping to overcome “political resistance” against such programs.

    Writing that “COVID-19 was the test of social responsibility,” Kaushik commends how, “A huge number of unimaginable restrictions for public health were adopted by billions of citizens across the world.”

    “There were numerous examples globally of maintaining social distancing, wearing masks, mass vaccinations and acceptance of contact-tracing applications for public health, which demonstrated the core of individual social responsibility,” he adds.

    13 Comments
    An opinion piece published by the World Economic Forum lauds how “billions” of people complied with “restrictions” imposed as a result of lockdown, suggesting they would do the same under the guise of reducing carbon emissions.

    The article is titled ‘My Carbon’: An approach for inclusive and sustainable cities’ and was written by Mridul Kaushik, Mission Director, Smart Cities Mission, Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs of India.

    The subject of the piece is how to convince people to adopt “personal carbon allowance programs” given that such schemes have so far been largely unsuccessful.

    However, Kaushik notes that improvements in tracking and surveillance technology are helping to overcome “political resistance” against such programs.

    Writing that “COVID-19 was the test of social responsibility,” Kaushik commends how, “A huge number of unimaginable restrictions for public health were adopted by billions of citizens across the world.”

    “There were numerous examples globally of maintaining social distancing, wearing masks, mass vaccinations and acceptance of contact-tracing applications for public health, which demonstrated the core of individual social responsibility,” he adds.

    In citing how so many people complied with lockdown mandates, despite overwhelming evidence of the harmful consequences such restrictions had on society, Kaushik implies that they’d behave in a similarly obsequious manner in other areas of life.

    Such conformity would be encouraged via technology, including artificial intelligence, digitization and “smart home” devices, argues Kaushik.

    The article goes on to call for a social-credit style carbon emissions rationing scheme that would provide “individual advisories on lower carbon and ethical choices for consumption of product and services.”

    New social norms would also be created to define what “a fair share” of personal emissions represents, and determine “acceptable levels” of personal emissions.

    We previously documented how technocrats are preparing “mandatory” personal carbon allowances that would introduce rationing into every area of your life via an app that would record your travel, heating expenses and even the food you eat.

    1. suggesting they would do the same under the guise of reducing carbon emissions

      The scamdemic was just a dress rehearsal. A way to test how obedient the masses had become after decades of indoctrination. Given the jab rates and how people lined up and tripped over each other to get jabbed, they know that people will comply with having their energy rationed, volunteering to have smart thermostats installed and agreeing to onerous energy costs and accepting the horrific shortages of food and other goods they will create, as being the price to pay to save the planet. The engineered famines will decimate poor countries, sending millions, if not billions to an early grave.

      Even if we take back control in November, the rest of the world will participate in this fraud. They are already forcing Dutch farmers to produce a lot less food. Expect to see more of this across Europe next year. The Euros won’t be able to feed themselves, never mind exporting food.

  34. Taking a break from my chores but I haven’t been able to check the news today, is the Queen still dead?

    I know they have been reporting her death around the clock for like 10 days, I was just wondering if the situation had changed.

    1. I’m really hoping that Brandon cuts a huge one during a solemn portion of the funeral tomorrow, preferably one that reeks of bean burrito.

        1. “Is Trump attending, as a former head of state?”

          I’m sure it’s an all Globalist invitation list so that counts him out.

        3. Only Joe and Jill are attending the service in London. Obama, Trump, and Carter were invited to the memorial in DC. So no, I wouldn’t say that Trump was snubbed, because that would mean that Obama was snubbed too. As for Carter, I doubt he can travel.

      1. At least Boy George worked unlike the new King who is busy telling us all to use less carbon or something. Not really sure but Charlie is a beady eyed bastard and the family probably had something to do with Diana’s death.

          2. I was thinking of the royal pens the other day. TBH I probably would have been angry too. The King is a public figure with security issues; it’s not like he can just go to WalMart and buy a couple dozen of his own pens. He’s kinda stuck depending on his aides for small things.

            I wonder if he could have just ordered a few from Amazon, without leaving his secure desk. 🤔

          3. I was thinking of the royal pens the other day.
            Are you talking about the leaky one? Well, yeah, okay. I was talking about him making a f’d up face while pushing pens to be taken off his desk. He looked like a nut case.

            Have to watch YT reallygraceful three-parter on him. He’s going to be more of a problem now that he’s been Kinged. He’s an idiot and the leash is off. Good thing no one likes him, that will slow him down.

        1. The amount of equipment needed for US based wafer fabs is staggering, the pipeline doesn’t have the kind of capacity needed to do it quickly. Decades is a worst case scenario, most likely it will take years.

    1. Funny, how we don’t have this problem in my little burg. Of course, we aren’t overrun by vibrants and fentanyl addicted hobos.

  38. Is it safe to assume that central banks have inflation firmly under control, and will be reducing interest rates back down to the zero or lower some day soon?

    1. The Financial Times
      Central banks
      Central banks set to hit peak rates at faster pace
      Markets are increasingly betting on policymakers raising borrowing costs higher and faster
      Central bankers: Andrew Bailey, Jay Powell and Christine Lagarde
      From left: central bankers Andrew Bailey, Jay Powell and Christine Lagarde
      Valentina Romei in London
      5 hours ago

      Investors are pricing in a sharper surge in interest rates over the coming months after the world’s major central banks strengthened their resolve to tackle soaring prices, signalling they would prioritise inflation over growth.

      A Financial Times analysis of interest rate derivatives, tracking expectations for borrowing costs in the US, UK and eurozone, showed markets expect a more drastic pace of tightening during the final quarter of 2022 than they did earlier this year.

      The shift in mood comes ahead of crucial policy meetings by the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the central banks of Norway and Sweden, and the Swiss National Bank this week. It follows a poor August inflation reading in the US and warnings from monetary policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic that they were becoming increasingly concerned that, without substantial rate rises, high inflation would prove hard to shift.

      “Central banks are coming to terms with how hard it will be to bring inflation back to target and they are trying to convey that message to the markets,” said Ethan Harris, an economist at Bank of America.
      …

      1. “Markets are increasingly betting on policymakers raising borrowing costs higher and faster”

        We occasionally talk about the”race to the exits” phenomena here.

        The central bankers are currently in a race to tighten.

    3. The Financial Times
      Technology sector
      Market downturn sparks longest US tech IPO drought in over 20 years
      High-growth technology stocks have been hit disproportionately hard by this year’s sell-off
      People reflected in the window of the Nasdaq MarketSite in Times Square
      The tech-dominated Nasdaq Composite has fallen 28% compared with a 19% drop in the S&P 500
      Nicholas Megaw in New York
      18 minutes ago

      The stock market downturn since the start of the year has caused the longest drought in US technology listings this century, with experts cautious about the pace of a revival even after tentative signs of life in other sectors.

      Wednesday will mark 238 days without a tech IPO worth more than $50mn, surpassing the previous records set in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis and the early 2000s dotcom crash, according to research by Morgan Stanley’s technology equity capital markets team.

      The US stock market has been rocked this year by the Federal Reserve’s battle to bring down inflation through aggressive interest rate rises. Higher rates hit stock valuations by reducing the value of future earnings, and have sparked fears that the economy will be pushed into recession.

      High-growth tech stocks dominated last year’s record-breaking IPO market and enjoyed some of the largest gains during the stock market boom, but they have also been disproportionately hit by this year’s sell-off.

      The tech-dominated Nasdaq Composite has fallen nearly 28 per cent so far this year compared with a drop of just over 19 per cent in the S&P 500, while the Renaissance IPO index, which tracks US companies that listed in the past two years, is down more than 45 per cent.

      “There’s a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the market right now, and uncertainty is the enemy of the IPO market,” said Matt Walsh, head of tech equity capital markets at SVB Securities.

      “I think we’ll need to see some stabilisation in the outlook and investors stepping back in to buy existing public securities before they’re willing to move further out on the risk curve and buy tech IPOs.”
      …

  39. ‘The builders will get laid off, then they won’t go to restaurants, they won’t buy goods, and so on.’

    Will Toll Brothers employees soon find themselves living in their parents’ basements?

  40. “‘It shrinks your buying ability,’ said Jeff Lazerson, president of brokerage Mortgage Grader. ‘A lot of borrowers are saying: ‘Forget it.’”

    Rates aren’t going back down anytime soon… possibly for decades, if the 1966-1982 experience is a guide.

    The smart money will sit back and wait for prices to adjust downwards to levels that align with higher interest rates. Let the eager beavers enjoy the thrill of catching themselves falling knives. 🔪🗡️ This may take up to five years to play out, based on past episodes (1991-1996, 2007-2012, etc.).

    1. The Financial Times
      FT-IGM Survey US interest rates
      Fed to keep interest rates above 4% beyond 2023, economists predict
      FT-IGM Survey forecasts central bank will prolong its aggressive campaign against decades-high inflation.
      The Federal Reserve building
      The Fed has this year raised interest rates at the most aggressive pace since 1981.
      Colby Smith in Washington and Caitlin Gilbert in New York
      September 17 2022

      The US central bank will lift its benchmark policy rate above 4 per cent and hold it there beyond 2023 in its bid to stamp out high inflation, according to the majority of leading academic economists polled by the Financial Times.

      The latest survey, conducted in partnership with the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, suggests the Federal Reserve is a long way from ending its campaign to tighten monetary policy.

      The Federal Open Market Committee has already raised interest rates this year at the fastest pace since 1981 and is expected to implement a third consecutive 0.75 percentage point rate rise on Wednesday. That move would hoist the target range, which was hovering near zero as recently as March, to between 3 per cent and 3.25 per cent.

      Nearly 70 per cent of the 44 economists surveyed between September 13 and 15 believe the fed funds rate of this tightening cycle will peak between 4 per cent and 5 per cent, with 20 per cent of the view that it will need to pass that level.

      “The FOMC has still not come to terms with how high they need to raise rates,” said Eric Swanson, a professor at the University of California, Irvine, who foresees the fed funds rate eventually topping out between 5 and 6 per cent. “If the Fed wants to slow the economy now, they need to raise the funds rate above [core] inflation.”
      …

    2. Rates aren’t going back down anytime soon… possibly for decades, if the 1966-1982 experience is a guide.

      Please explain. I anticipate my Wednesday lunch date will say that interest rates will go back down next year.

      1. not OP but inflation is deeply entrenched now and it’s out of goods and into services and starting to get into wages. And that’s just the money side. With the PTB shutting down energy production, energy is going to get very expensive. And behind every unit of GDP is a unit of energy.

        If you assume the world is going to continue (i’ll give you 70-30 against) then it’s going to take quite some time to get all this money back out of the economy. It’s taken years to build up. (remember, this has really been going on since at least 01, and really probably more like 98) There’s a LOT of inflationary pressure. It’s not going to get resolved in a year or so. JMHO

        1. I wouldn’t be surprised if she relies on MSNBC for “news.” How about our weather this last month?!

    1. “FJB” in New York (New Joisey)? And no fights? Hoo boy. It reminds me of a year ago when I saw a “Let’s Go Brandon” sign outside an auto parts store … in an area which was 80+% blue.

  42. “According to the San Diego Association of Realtors, the median price of a single family home in the county dropped by 5% last month to $910,000.”

    1-(1-0.05)^12 = 46% annualized rate of price decline. This is how much San Diego prices will go down in 12 months if the recent rate of price decline continues.

    Whether prices in San Diego actually go down by that much depends on whether the rate of price decline slows, remains constant, or snowballs. Avalanche risk seems quite high over the next year, particularly given the growing prospect of a recession.

    1. Are you interested in some helpful advice from Mr Banker about how to pinch pennies at the grocery store during a recession?

      1. News
        Business
        How to grocery shop during a recession
        Sun., Sept. 18, 2022
        A person shops for groceries in March at a store in the Prospect Lefferts Garden neighborhood of Brooklyn borough in New York City. (Getty Images)
        By Nicole Dieker
        Bankrate.com

        Groceries are more expensive than ever. In July 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data indicating that the cost of groceries had increased by 12.2% over the last twelve months. If you’re trying to inflation-proof your finances, you could be experiencing a lot of grocery-related financial stress right now.

        To make matters worse, economists polled by Bankrate say there’s a 52% chance a recession is coming, which could mean many of us will have less money to spare for everyday spending.

        You may be familiar with the classic ways to save money on groceries. Avoid shopping when you’re hungry, for example, and buy generic products instead of brand-name equivalents. But how do these tips apply when inflation is making even the generic products more expensive? And what can we do to save money on groceries if the economy goes from inflation to recession?

        We wanted to give you the best expert advice on how to save money at the supermarket, so we asked money-saving expert Andrea Woroch how to grocery shop during a recession. She offered tips on what to buy, what to avoid and how to earn rewards on every purchase.
        …
        https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2022/sep/18/how-to-grocery-shop-during-a-recession/

        1. I LOLd when I heard man of the people and all around regular guy Bill O’Reilly giving the plebs money saving tips on the radio a few months ago.

      2. “Are you interested in some helpful advice from Mr Banker about how to pinch pennies at the grocery store during a recession?”

        Here is some of Mr. Banker’s helpful advice:

        Supplement you protein needs by eating bugs. Any money saved should be dedicated to paying down your bank loans.

    2. Fed Hikes & Beyond: Is a recession looking imminent?
      PMI and housing data are deep in contraction territory which suggests that 2023 earnings estimates are far too optimistic and need to come down further.
      Written by Sunil Dhawan
      Updated: September 18, 2022 4:36:56 pm
      The U.S. economy has already stalled and now we see a recession in the cards for early next year.

      US FED Rate Hike 2022: US recession 2022 has become the talk of the town and the whole world is talking about it now. The US, after all, has a big say in the world of trade and businesses owing to the large size of its $23 trillion economy. The United States is home to the world’s biggest financial market but the economy is staring at a recession.
      …
      https://www.financialexpress.com/investing-abroad/featured-stories/fed-hikes-amp-beyond-is-a-recession-looking-imminent/2672263/

    3. A part of the Treasury yield curve has just seen its steepest inversion since 2000 as bond markets flash recession warnings
      Brian Evans
      Sep 15, 2022, 8:10 AM
      An inverted yield curve typically means investors expect a recession.
      Getty Images
      – The two-year Treasury yield blew past the 30-year yield Thursday as inflation data causes a further inversion.
      – The spread between the two bonds marks the steepest inversion in nearly 22 years.
      – An inverted yield curve has historically been a reliable indicator of a coming recession.

      The yield on the two-year Treasury bond pushed further past the 30-year yield to mark the deepest inversion between the two notes in 22 years on Thursday, as fresh inflation data, bets on rate hikes, and recession fears widen the gap.

      The two-year yield on Thursday jumped six basis points, to 3.85%. That’s 38 basis points above the 30-year Treasury yield of about 3.47%, and is the most inverted the two bonds have been since 2000. The yield on the two-year note surged Tuesday following August inflation data that showed price increases slowed, but not as much as markets had hoped for.

      An inverted yield curve is a closely watched indicator of a potential recession in the near- to medium-term. The inversion essentially flips conventional thinking that long term debt carries more risk than short-term obligations. The current difference between the two-year and 30-year yields is the widest gap among US benchmark rates.

      The Federal Reserve is expected to take strong steps to address inflation at its next policy meeting, with Wall Street widely expecting a 75 basis point hike following this week’s release of August inflation data. Some have said the central bank could push rates as high as 9% to truly tame inflation.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/recession-outlook-yield-curve-inversion-signals-steep-downturn-inflation-news-2022-9

      1. Definitely so if real estate is a significant part of your household income portfolio…

        But possibly economy wide as well. The unofficial definition of a recession is two straight quarters of GDP decline, which has already happened. The National Bureau of Economic Research panel has the official say in when the US economy is in recession, but they tend to announce the situation retroactively, perhaps to avoid making the downturn worse.

        The recession in the 2007-2009 financial crisis is a good case in point. It officially began in December 2007, but the NBER didn’t call it until late 2008. An economist in GWB’s administration was sacked for acknowledging it in December 2007…not a great look going into a presidential election year. If you look up the HBB archives, you will discover that many posters called the subprime mortgage lending industry collapse and the severe downturn of the Great Recession as early as mid-2007, long before the MSM or the NBER got around to it.

        Once a recession is common knowledge, households and businesses rein in borrowing and spending, including layoffs at the firm level to get out ahead of collapsing demand, which further contributes to the slowdown. Unfortunately, layoffs and households increasing savings and reining in spending as a precaution against layoffs contribute to the demand collapse. Housing sales and services also dry up when households fear the prospect of unemployment. It’s a vicious circle that spirals down into the CR8R.

    5. “46% annualized rate of price decline”

      I wonder what would happen if San Diego housing fell 50 percent. Would entitled real estate investors stage an insurrection if the Fed didn’t ride in to the rescue?

      We may soon find out!

        2. I think prices have roughly doubled since 2005, as homes that sold for $500,000 back then are selling for north of $1 million now.

          Of course there was that major price dip between 2005 and 2012 or so, and hence there was also a more recent point when SD prices were half today’s level.

        3. Case-Shiller for San Diego shows 421.3 for June 2022. Half of that is about 210.7, which was the price level circa June 2015…and also May 2004 on the way up to the first bubble peak and November 2007 on the way down to the first bubble trough.

          https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SDXRSA

          We’re currently at the second, and likely the final, bubble peak before prices go the way of the South Sea Bubble.

          https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofEngland/South-Sea-Bubble/

          1. One more detail:. The San Diego Case-Shiller index ndex level bottomed out at 145.4 in May 2009, before the Fed’s Quantitative Easing program drove long term interest rates towards zero and began to lift home prices towards their recent index level of 421.3, which is up by 421.3/145.4-1 = 190%, or nearly three times the 2009 trough, with most of the increase since the Fed dumped buckets of money into the economy since March 2020.

  43. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) urged Republican governors to send illegal immigrants to three other Democrat-run areas after Gov. Ron DeSantis’s well-publicized move to send them to Martha’s Vineyard last week.

    On Twitter, the Republican senator urged DeSantis and Texas Gov. Greg Abbot to send illegal aliens to Nantucket, Massachusetts; Palo Alto, California; and Rehoboth Beach, Delaware.

    Cruz suggested to Fox News last week that top Democrats don’t have their priorities in order. He made note of an incident that unfolded earlier this year during which more than 50 illegal aliens were found dead inside a truck near San Antonio.

    “You know, the Democrats did not think it was a humanitarian crisis when we pulled over 50 bodies in body bags out of a truck in Texas of illegal immigrants who died because the smugglers let them die of heat exposure,” Cruz said. “And yet, suddenly 50 illegal immigrants show up in lily-white Martha’s Vineyard, where rich liberals and billionaires sip Chardonnay, and it is, it is World War II.”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/sen-cruz-urges-desantis-to-send-illegal-immigrants-to-3-new-democrat-run-areas_4738060.html

    1. “pulled over 50 bodies in body bags out of a truck in Texas”

      The Salty Cracker mentioned this in his Friday stream. He said the only reason Democrat Party would care about this is the 50 lost votes.

    1. I have a relative who is obsessed with the Royal Family, and is simultaneously a card-carrying member of the DAR. Go figure.

      1. It’s the glamor, the not so secret wish to be a princess herself. Nevermind that you would live under a microscope. We have our own “royalty”, who mostly appear in reality tv shows or are hip hop stars.

        Of course you can’t tour one of the Kardashian’s homes like say Windsor Castle. IIRC, the Queen was there the day I toured it (they fly a special flag when the monarch is there). Of course I only got to see the public portion of Windsor (this was during my first UK visit some 20 years ago). It was interesting, they even had the bullet that killed Lord Nelson on display. But no, I don’t obsess over the royalty.

        2. I understand the half-mast thing. Yeah, we rebel colonists broke from the Crown 250 years ago, but in the time since then we’ve had real collaboration.

  45. Here is an interesting observation …

    “Per my colleague Sarah Wolfe in US Economics, about half of all the income in the US is earned by households making more than $100,000 per year. Most of these households own their own homes, and either have no mortgage or have refinanced into a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at an extremely low rate. This means that the largest expense for these households is not rising even as the Fed is hiking, but their wages are (median wage growth in the US is ~6.5%, per the Atlanta Fed). For many of these households, which represent a large share of national income, financial conditions aren’t tightening, they’re easing. This may help to explain why core inflation is so ‘sticky’ on the way down.

    “Of course, things look different at the low end of the income distribution, where households are more likely to face high rent inflation and be more impacted by higher food and energy costs. This seems to present a real dilemma, one that in the market’s eyes increases the likelihood that the Fed will have to do more. It is too early to pivot.”

    Here is the link to the article that produced this interesting observation ..,

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-tina-has-left-building

    1. but their wages are (median wage growth in the US is ~6.5%, per the Atlanta Fed).

      I got a raise this year, but it didn’t keep pace with the phony, underreported rate of inflation, nevermind the real one.

  46. “Taibbi: The Justice Department Was Dangerous Before Trump. It’s Out Of Control Now”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/taibbi-justice-department-was-dangerous-trump-its-out-control-now

    (an interesting snippet …)

    “But it was a raid, as the surprisingly enormous number of people who’ve been on the business end of such actions since 9/11 will report. The state more and more now avails itself of a procedural trick that would have horrified everyone from Jefferson to to Potter Stewart to Thurgood Marshall. Investigating, say, one lawyer, prosecutors raid a whole firm, taking everything — emails, client files, cell phones and personal computers — then have a supposedly separate group of lawyers, called a ‘taint’ or ‘filter’ team, examine it all. In this way they learn the private details of hundreds or even thousands of clients in a shot, all people unrelated to the supposed case at hand.”

  47. EXCLUSIVE: Venezuela empties prisons, sends violent criminals to US border, says DHS report

    3 hours ago

    A recent Department of Homeland Security intelligence report received by the Border Patrol instructs agents to search for Venezuelan detainees released from entering the US, according to a CBP source. The report, reviewed by Breitbart Texas, indicates that the Venezuelan government, led by Nicolás Maduro Moros, is deliberately releasing prisoners — including some convicted of murder, rape and extortion.

    The intelligence report warns agents that the released detainees were seen in July in migrant caravans traveling from Tapachula, Mexico to the US-Mexico border. The source, who is not authorized to speak to the media, told Breitbart Texas the move is reminiscent of a similar move by Cuban dictator Fidel Castro during the Mariel boat lift in the 1980s.

    The report does not state whether the released detainees traveled as a close-knit group, but does state that it was common knowledge among migrants who traveled to the United States in a caravan in July that many of the Venezuelan migrants in the group were convicts as well as hardened criminals. .

    https://www.newspress.com.ng/exclusive-venezuela-empties-prisons-sends-violent-criminals-to-us-border-says-dhs-report/

      1. “Another day in Biden’s America.”

        Sheriff: 2 Florida Teens Charged with Armed Kidnapping, Sexual Battery, Carjacking, and Robbing a Woman

        ETHAN LETKEMAN
        18 Sep 2022

        Two Florida teens were arrested for kidnapping, sexual battery, carjacking, and armed robbery after they attacked a woman, according to the Broward County Sheriff’s Office.

        Detectives say that suspects Corey Jones, 18, and an unidentified 16-year-old approached the woman as she was returning home at approximately 9:30 p.m. on Wednesday in Pompano Beach. She was then forced into the back seat of her car by the two teens.

        The suspects drove the woman to an unknown location and sexually assaulted her multiple times.

        The teens then drove the vehicle to an ATM machine and forced the woman to withdraw money from her account. She was sexually battered by the two suspects again, detectives say.

        She was later forced out of her own vehicle by the suspects and was able to call for help while the two drove away.

        The following day, detectives discovered the victim’s vehicle with Jones inside it. The 18-year-old male attempted to flee the scene but was promptly apprehended and taken into custody.

        Jones dropped two cell phones while trying to escape, one of them belonging to the victim, according to the sheriff’s office.

        On Friday, authorities also arrested the 16-year-old male and brought him to the juvenile assessment center for processing.

        “Both Jones and the 16-year-old confessed to the offenses,” the sheriff’s office wrote.

        Both teens have been charged with sexual battery with a weapon, kidnapping an adult, carjacking with a firearm, and robbery with a weapon.

        81 Comments

        Ron Hatfield • an hour ago
        I think this would be a wonderful opportunity to pause and give thanks for the great contributions of the black community to our society.
        Their peaceful and generous nature make them ideal neighbors, lending testimony to their exceptional family values and parenting skills unrivaled by any other culture.
        Their commitment to academic excellence enriches our schools and serves as an example to all who hope to achieve prominence as a people.
        Real estate values are fueled by a mix of African-Americans into an area due to their caring and respectful nature of these communities, an example of all they have achieved through their commitment to constant self improvement through hard work and a, self reliant, “can do” nature. And we certainly must not forget their abhorrence for crime, and dedication to observing the law.

        Without their industrious and creative drive, we would be poorer as a nation.

        https://www.breitbart.com/

        Deputies arrest pair of teens for armed carjacking, sexual battery
        Sep 17, 2022

        Two teenagers were arrested after being accused of an armed carjacking that took place in Palm Beach County.

        https://youtu.be/DtGtymPwqnI

    3. People are naive. You see someone reach in a bag in the middle of a fight – it’s time to practice Run Fu.

  49. From above:

    For more than 25 years, Amin Abdella (PhD), a member and sectorial director at the Ethiopian Economics Association, has been researching Ethiopian markets. He never stopped finding the market bizarre at times and confusing most of the time. For him, the Ethiopian economy cannot be explained by conventional economic terms and theories.

    “Even the most fundamental principles of economics tell you that as fuel prices rise, car prices should fall. However, never in Ethiopia,” he said.

  50. “The shift is here, and it is moving fast,’ said Colorado Springs-area Realtor Patrick Muldoon”

    That stick shift is firmly implanted in yer ass Pat!

    1. Omg… that’s 15 percent below Bitcoin’s hypothetical $20,000 support level. A new bear market seems imminent relative to the 70 percent off-peak price. And since Bitcoin is imaginary, pays no income and has zero fundamental value, there is no telling how low it will go in the face of rising interest rates and Quantitative Tightening.

  54. “…the company itself was not actually making anywhere near the profits it had promised. Instead, it was just trading in increasing amounts of its own stock. Those involved in the company began encouraging – and in some cases bribing – their friends to purchase stock to further inflate the price and keep demand high.”

    World’s first meme stock?

    “Today, there are many commentators drawing comparisons between ‘Cryptocurrency mania’ and the South Sea Bubble, and note that, ‘promoters of the Bubble made impossible promises.’ Perhaps historians of the future will have cause to look back with similar incredulity on today’s market. Only time will tell.”

    Yes it will!

    https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofEngland/South-Sea-Bubble/

    1. Dow futures drop more than 200 points as Wall Street braces for big Federal Reserve meeting this week
      Tanaya Macheel
      NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 13: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on September 13, 2022 in New York City. U.S. stocks opened lower today and closed significantly low with the Dow Jones dropping over 1,200 points after the release of an inflation report that showed prices rising more than expected in the last month. The Consumer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed prices rising 8.3% over the last year.
      Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images

      Stock futures fell Monday after the major averages posted their worst week since June and ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting this week.

      Futures tied to Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 275 points, or 0.9%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures slid 0.9% and 1%, respectively.

      Investors are coming into the new week focused on the Fed’s latest policy meeting, which will begin Tuesday. The central bank is expected to raise interest rates by another three-quarters of a point, though investors are also watching for guidance about corporate earnings before the next reporting season begins in October.

      “As the S&P 500 hovers below the all-important 3,900 level, and the 10-year Treasury yield inches ever closer to 3.5%, the Fed-sensitive 2-year Treasury note flirts with 3.9%, suggesting that the Fed’s aggressive campaign to kill off inflation is to be taken seriously,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial. “The canary in the coal mine may not yet be dead, but is probably struggling to breathe.”
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/18/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

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