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The Market Has Quickly Reversed From Excess Demand And A Shortage Of Inventory To ‘We Have Inventory, But Demand Is Gone’

A report from Community Impact in Texas. “Median home prices in Northwest Austin are down $67,000 from July to August, according to the Austin Board of Realtors monthly report released on Sept. 15. August median home prices stood at $577,000, compared to $644,000 in July and $617,500 in June. ‘The cost of developing and building homes in Austin continues to escalate with little to no relief. This will cause sales to slow, as we see currently with home prices dropping and selling closer to the list price when compared to the past two years,’ ABoR President Cord Shiflet said.”

The Sun News. “A year after that peak of home selling, Myrtle Beach’s real estate market has finally started to cool off. ‘It’s 100% different than it was three months ago or four months ago,’ said Renny Diedrich, South Carolina Association of Realtors’ vice president over Myrtle Beach. ‘It is a more normalized market. The last two and a half years was something that we never experienced.'”

“Century 21 real estate agent Greg Harrelson said he first noticed a change at the start of the year. ‘Before you see a shift in the data, you’ll see a shift in conversations,’ he said. Suddenly, buyers were sounding more frustrated. They were ‘fed up with having to pay more and more,’ Harrelson said. They complained about the multiple-offer bidding wars, paying $30,000 over asking price.’ ‘The buyers felt bullied,’ Harrelson said. Whereas, ‘at the height of the market, people were saying, ‘Find me something. I’ll pay anything,’ he added.”

The Center Square. “A new analysis of listings on Zillow has found that the housing market in Illinois is cooling off. Mortgage interest rates have now risen to 6%, high enough to push a lot of buyers back down to earth. RubyHome, the luxury California brokerage firm that examined 12 months worth of Zillow sales, put Illinois at number 9 on their top 10 list of states where sellers are walking away with less than their asking prices. ‘People may have been asking very unrealistic prices,’ said Daniel P. McMillen, professor of finance at the University of Illinois-Chicago.”

The Colorado Springs Business Journal. “The real estate market in Colorado Springs — and statewide — showed growing buyer power, the impact of rising interest rates, and a slowdown during August, according to a report out today from the Colorado Association of Realtors. The number of homes sold in the Springs market was also down 30 percent year over year and inventory was up 102.9 percent, said Patrick Muldoon, a Springs-based Realtor and spokesman for CAR. The market has quickly reversed from excess demand and a shortage of inventory in early 2022 — a feature of the pandemic — to the opposite now, where ‘we have inventory, but demand is gone,’ Muldoon said.”

“‘… Colorado continues to be one of the states making news on being unaffordable and in a housing bubble, and we are beginning to feel that as sellers either remove their homes from the market, or price drop.’ Muldoon said as this trend continues, rent prices in the area will also ‘soften.'”

From Tucson.com. “A combination of factors could finally slow the rapid increases in the cost of buying a home in Arizona. Doug Walls, the labor market information director for the state Office of Economic Opportunity said Thursday that the number of homes on the market in Arizona hit 23,719 last month. That’s up 12.9% from the prior month and more than double a year ago.The figure, which represents both new homes and those being offered up by owners, also is the highest it’s been since the middle of 2019.”

“Add to that the fact that the number of days the typical home is on the market increased to 41 days in August from 32 days in July. Then you have the Federal Reserve Board which continues to increase interest rates, making it more expensive to borrow. Walls said the most recent month-over-month increase was the largest going back to December 1986. And the largest losses came in the state’s financial activities sector which shed 800 jobs in the past month. That’s the polar opposite of the long-term trends in the industry, which normally gains 800 jobs in August.”

“Those losses include not just positions in real estate but also a category called ‘credit intermediaries,’ the people involved in arranging financing. And it reverses strong gains as the state and nation were coming out of the pandemic.”

From DS News. “The Five Star Conference and Expo 2022 opened Sunday in Dallas at the Hyatt Regency Dallas, getting underway with the FORCE Membership Group’s New Member Mixer, welcoming agents and brokers. The FORCE Advisory Council is tasked with expanding FORCE’s influence guiding all members in forging productive and meaningful relationships with lenders, servicers, REO and distressed asset management companies, and investors.”

“The moderator started the panel off by asking the most frequently asked question they received from audience submissions: ‘When are the listings coming and what are the signs?’ ‘I believe that we will have increased foreclosure in America into 2026,’ noted James Hastings, Chairman of the FORCE. ‘When you look at the data, it should not be a surprise, so I think we’re going to have a good five years.'”

The Los Angeles Daily News. “California cities are leading a brewing cooldown in home prices nationwide. Source: My trusty spreadsheet analyzed two recent home price reports: Black Knight’s report on median sales prices for July in 50 big U.S. markets, and Case-Shiller’s price indexes for 20 metro areas for the three months ended in June, which tracks price changes of individual homes sold. Neither of the valuation math was kind to California. Six California markets ranked among the worst performers in Black Knight’s tracking of price falls from springtime peaks. Case-Shiller found six down markets nationally for June — three in California.”

“Why are the 10 markets with the biggest slips tracked by Black Knight and all six decliners from Case-Shiller located between the Pacific coast and Denver? Simply put, this year’s soaring mortgage rates and rising consumer anxieties have shaken the foundation for the sky-high home prices of the pandemic era — especially in California. Consider Black Knight’s math: San Jose:July prices were 10% off their peak (the largest dip of the 50 metros). San Francisco:7% off the peak (No. 3 dip). San Diego:6% off the peak (No. 4 dip). Los Angeles-Orange County:4% off the peak (No. 5 dip). Sacramento:3% off the peak (No. 7 dip).”

“On a scale of zero bubbles (no bubble here) to five bubbles (five-alarm warning) … THREE BUBBLES!”

The Toronto Star in Canada. “The city’s red hot housing market has lost a little of its frenzy over the past few months. What’s out there in the city core for at or about $1 million now vs. at the height of the market this past winter? At the height of the market this past winter it was tough to find even a semi-detached or row house for under a million that was move-in ready, let alone a detached home, in urban Toronto, said Ara Mamourian, broker of The Spring Team Real Estate.”

“‘There’s been a bit of an adjustment,’ Mamourian said. Homes that were maybe not even newly updated but safe, livable and in the urban neighbourhoods of Toronto, were going for up to $1.1 to $1.2 million in January, February, and early March. ‘Now you’re getting those homes at up to $1 million,’ he said.”

“According to TRREB’s most recent stats, the average price for homes and condos was $1.08 million in August. That’s up slightly from July’s average price of $1.07, but down from February’s $1.33 million. Andrew Harrild, co-founder of Condos.ca., said he’s seen this price drop trend even in ‘prime triple A neighbourhoods’ such as Leslieville. Although there have been price drops across the board of around 10 per cent since February, condos are in general ‘holding up better,’ said Harrild. ‘If you’re one of a dozen condos on the market, just like yours at the same time, well, how do you separate yourself from your competition? You’ve got to reduce your price, that’s how you do it.'”

The Globe and Mail. “Real estate flippers have made out like bandits in Canada’s red hot real estate market over the past two years. But with today’s slower sales and house prices dropping rapidly, it’s time for a reckoning. ‘Just as some people bought not knowing that they were going to finish their flip in a really, really profitable seller’s market, others bought at high prices at the tail end of this surge and the market flattened on them,’ says Matt Francis, a realtor in Stratford. ‘If they entered that flip with the mentality of putting all their eggs in one basket and having to sell it for a high price, then they’re in trouble.'”

Stuff New Zealand. “Move to Christchurch and we’ll pay your mortgage for a year. That’s the promise of housing development company Brooksfield to anyone who shifts to the city and buys one of its townhouses by the end of October. The only condition is the mortgage must be for a 30-year term, at a current average bank interest rate. Brooksfield director Vinny Holloway said the slowing real estate market had almost halved their sales since the peak last year. A year ago, they were selling about 40 homes a month, ‘and we could’ve sold almost double that if we had the stock. They were just flying off he shelf.'”

“Now they are selling between 20 and 25 homes a month, he said. ‘And we’re having to work for those.'”

The Korea Times. “A string of economic indicators in Korea this year have worsened to levels comparable to the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and the 2008-09 global financial crisis, raising questions on whether the country is on course for another crisis after overcoming painful shocks from the two preceding ones. For instance, there was a striking sense of deja vu when some of this year’s financial statistics were released. Inflation hit 6.3 percent in July ― the highest since November 1998 when it reached 6.8 percent. Also, the Korean won-dollar exchange rate closed at 1,393.7 won on Sept. 15, the highest since 1,422 won on March 31, 2009. Foreign reserves dropped by $9.4 billion in June, the deepest fall since November 2008 ($11.7 billion). And in August when the country faced the fifth consecutive month of trade deficit, it echoed the longest losing streak in the trade balance seen in April 2008.”

“Of more concern is that the risks have emerged simultaneously ― a rare scene compared to the past ― and are thus amplifying jitters over the economy. Of course, some indicators ‘deserve very close attention,’ according to Jun Kwang-woo, a former Financial Services Commission (FSC) chairman who heads the Institute for Global Economics, as they highly reflect the impact of the external risks that remain out of Korea’s hands. They include the negative trade balance, which is highly associated with China’s unprecedented growth slowdown.”

“‘The Chinese economy was enjoying a boom during the past two crises that many are concerned about to date,’ Jun said, adding that Korea’s recovery back then was attributable to China’s growth and that losing such a plus factor would not go unnoticed.”

From Reuters. “Two months since many Chinese homebuyers stopped repaying mortgages to protest stalled construction on their properties, a lack of progress at more sites now threatens to intensify the boycott, despite assurances from authorities. With no sign of construction picking up at many projects and no clear guidance from local authorities, more homebuyers have told Reuters they plan to join others who have stopped paying mortgages. ‘The government is focusing on social stability and has not thought about solving the problem of unfinished projects,’ Qi Yu, a homebuyer in the southeastern city of Nanchang, said. ‘There’s nothing we can do if the government doesn’t help us.’ Qi has not serviced his 1 million yuan mortgage since July.”

“Others say they have been forced to stay silent amid a crackdown on dissent. In Zhengzhou, 30-year-old Ashley, who only gave her first name, said while construction resumed at her apartment in the second quarter, only a handful of people work at the site to, what she believes, ‘appease homeowners.’ Ashley told Reuters she and other homeowners of the development were warned against travelling to Beijing to protest after the Zhengzhou government repeatedly cancelled meetings with homebuyers.”

“‘I received a call from the police this week, they asked me not to get around them to protest to higher authorities,’ she said. Ashley showed Reuters a phone log that police had called her 15 times in one day earlier this month. Zhengzhou Public Security Ministry declined to comment.”

“About 2.3 trillion yuan (US$43.02 billion) worth of loans is at stake if all unfinished projects ended up in mortgage boycotts, representing 6 per cent of total mortgages, Natixis said in a report last month. Beijing has set up a bailout fund worth up to US$44 billion and US$29 billion in special loans for unfinished projects to restore confidence, sources say. Sources at property developers and banks, however, said it could take time for those funds to make a difference. ‘There won’t be money for everyone,’ said a senior executive at a Shanghai-based developer.”

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It Feels Like 2006

A report from the Seattle Times in Washington. "Since the local market peaked last spring,…

This Post Has 109 Comments

  1. ‘The Chinese economy was enjoying a boom during the past two crises that many are concerned about to date,’ Jun said, adding that Korea’s recovery back then was attributable to China’s growth and that losing such a plus factor would not go unnoticed’

    So it is different this time.

  2. ‘Before you see a shift in the data, you’ll see a shift in conversations,’ he said. Suddenly, buyers were sounding more frustrated. They were ‘fed up with having to pay more and more,’ Harrelson said. They complained about the multiple-offer bidding wars, paying $30,000 over asking price.’ ‘The buyers felt bullied,’ Harrelson said. Whereas, ‘at the height of the market, people were saying, ‘Find me something. I’ll pay anything’

    This is a key point: when the mania is full shack gamblers are validated by paying too much. ‘Ima gonna be rich! Look at how much I borrowed.’ Then you run out of those people.

    1. “Then you run out of those people.”

      It’s more like you run out of those people who have somehow gained access to money.

      1. When I was in the process of buying my house in 2012, I brought some bank and investment statements to show them. On the way out, I overheard the real estate agent say to the mortgage agent “Isn’t it nice to see someone who actually has money?” They must have been faking income and assets for years.

    2. ‘Ima gonna be rich! Look at how much I borrowed.’

      Like the renown economist stated so eloquently, “If you have to borrow for 15 or 30 years, you can’t afford it nor is it affordable.”

      He’s right.

      Chantilly, VA Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Double Digit Price Declines Blanket Northern Virginia

      https://www.movoto.com/chantilly-va/market-trends/

  3. ‘Colorado continues to be one of the states making news on being unaffordable and in a housing bubble, and we are beginning to feel that as sellers either remove their homes from the market, or price drop’

    Yer a perma bear Pat.

  4. Orlando, FL Housing Prices Crater 18% YOY As The Toxic Rot Of Subprime Mortgage Defaults Looms Over Florida Housing Market

    https://www.movoto.com/fl/32837/market-trends

    As one national broker conceded, “We’ve been scraping the bottom of the buyer barrel for 15 years or more. Why do you think mortgage defaults are 600% higher than long term trend?”

    1. “…maybe you should be doing your one and only job – ensuring the soundness of the currency.”

      – I’m not sure how it works in NZ, but probably a lot like it does in the US and everywhere else in the OECD world for countries (most) infected with the plague virus of central banks.
      – Their primary mandate is to debauch the fiat currency. I’d say they’re doing pretty well.
      – In the US: The Fed is the central bank. They’re unelected and unaccountable to the electorate (read citizens). They continue to grab and consolidate power derived from nefarious machinations and manipulations of the fiat currency and interest rates. This is called a centrally-planned, command-and-control economy, comrade. The State is essentially in control of the means of production and sets the price of money (interest rates).
      – The Fed is also posturing about setting non-monetary policies, including those related to AGM/Climate Change.
      – The Communist elites are grabbing for more power. The central bank is a key enabler of this plan. See Marx’s 5th plank of the Communist Manifesto.
      – BTW, what, exactly do central bankers know about climate? Are they weather/climate scientists? I didn’t think so.
      – Physical science today is driven by political science. This continues until the masses wake up and revolt.

      “The peasants are revolting.” – The Wizard of ID

      – But for now: Panem et Circenses (Bread and circuses)

      “There is no art which one government sooner learns of another than that of draining money from the pockets of the people.” – Adam Smith, The Wealth Of Nations, Book V Chapter II Part II, Appendix to Articles I&II, p. 861, para. 12.

    3. There might be a Supreme Court case in there somewhere. SCOTUS slammed down on EPA for overstepping its original laws to pass broad climate change legislation. I can easily see SCOTUS doing the same for the Fed. Nowhere in any law does the Fed have the authority to mandate anything other than money.

  6. Oh dear….

    New Zealand’s housing market approaches interest rate doom

    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/09/new-zealands-housing-market-interest-rate-doom/

    In the wake of last week’s data showing New Zealand house prices plunging at their fastest pace on record in the six months to August, ANZ’s economics team has aggressively raised its interest rate forecasts.

    ANZ now believes the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will lift the official cash rate (OCR) to a peak of 4.75% (previously 4%), with 25bp hikes added to its profile in February, April, and May next year:

    1. All those who lose their shacks to full recourse foreclosures will be at the mercy of the NZ government.

      All part of the plan.

  7. The last two and a half years was something that we never experienced.’”

    That’s because the Keynesian fraudsters at the Fed went full Zimbabwe with their expansion of the money supply.

  8. Hank Williams jr – All My Rowdy Friends (Have Settled Down)

    https://youtu.be/Ct8V4nF9oOI

    All my barnyard friends are wearing frowns
    And they seem to be more thinking that they’ve been wronged
    Nobody wants to get punked and feel doubt
    Everybody just wants to keep their home

    I myself have seen their crater rage
    And I have seen donks name on the housing bubble page
    But they cede the housing markets falling down
    But nobody wants to get punked and feel doubt
    All my barnyard friends are wearing frowns

    San Diego, CA Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY As The Fenders Flap And Wheels Fall Off San Diego Housing Market

    https://www.movoto.com/ca/92101/market-trends/

  9. They were ‘fed up with having to pay more and more,’ Harrelson said. They complained about the multiple-offer bidding wars, paying $30,000 over asking price.’ ‘The buyers felt bullied,’ Harrelson said.

    Boo f#*king hoo. Buyers didn’t “have” to pay more – they chose to. So now when they get their heads handed to them, it’s no one’s fault but their own, although of course they’ll reject any notion of personal accountability for poor financial decisions.

    1. of course they’ll reject any notion of personal accountability for poor financial decisions.

      But everyone was doing it! /sarc

  10. The number of homes sold in the Springs market was also down 30 percent year over year and inventory was up 102.9 percent, said Patrick Muldoon, a Springs-based Realtor and spokesman for CAR.

    Last April a realtor acquaintance of mine confidentially assured me that CoS shack prices were projected to rise for at least the next two years because of the influx of California and Texas cash buyers, and because everyone wants to live here.

      1. CS is the place to be in Colorado, company’s, families, small business’s are flooding the market, new development everywhere. Remember, CS is a military town, that Government $$$$ never stops and the quality of living/life is outstanding. The airport is expanding as big companies relocate, also easier to get to the ski areas then sitting in traffic on 70 with all the Denver libtards, 24 is a beautiful drive and 2hrs to Breckenridge while 70 is a 4hrs nightmare.

    2. “Brandon commits U.S. forces to defend Taiwan…”

      It would be much easier to defend them if we were there in fortified positions prior to the threatened invasion.

      1. It would be much easier to defend them if we were there in fortified positions prior to the threatened invasion.

        I believe the PRC has already made it clear that would be an act of war.

    1. Same for Colorado Springs. Only 22% have the income to support purchasing a shack at the median home price.

  14. A reader sent these in:

    John Wake

    Whoops! Real, inflation-adjusted prices are down 8.7% in 3 months.
    That means we’re already 29% of the way to a 30% fall.

    Sep 13
    Median Sold Price Metro Phoenix
    Single-Family Houses
    May = $515,000
    August = $480,000

    May to August the house price in Phoenix fell 6.8%. Adjusted for inflation, the real median house price fell 8.7% over those 3 months.

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1571625041116405761

    Why I think a real estate downturn is inevitable 👇

    All that “capital on the sidelines” is going to make a hard turn to other asset classes as rates rise. Cap rates just can’t stay where they are. Reposting this chart. Rising cap rates erode RE values fast.

    https://twitter.com/ChrisUnits/status/1571646985022611456

    A good friend traded up to a McMansion in 2021 and when they renew in a few months their Variable Rate will result in a monthly payment jump from $5300 to over $7000 a month. This is a high-income household, well educated in finance & they have said they’ll likely sell. 🤷🏻

    https://twitter.com/dzoolander85/status/1571550155232497664

    South Park on economy in 2009. Also applies to 2022.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1571586696969621504

    We haven’t had such a large Monthly Supply of New Houses in the United States since March 2009, which if you remember was a great time to buy stocks.

    Wait.

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1571630689900175360

    So MBS holdings by the Fed – which were $0 until 2008 – have fallen a mere $22 Billion from mid-April to mid-September 2022, to $2.718 TRillion, with CPI >8%.

    For comparison, here’s how much MBS they bought in the SAME PERIOD in:

    2021: $265B
    2020: $437B
    2013: $213B
    2009: $330B

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1571640457012318208

    One of Britain’s biggest suppliers of carbon dioxide halts output at a plant, further reducing local supplies of the gas vital for production of food.

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1571436194000519169

    “A shortage of carbon dioxide is causing German drinks manufacturers to cut production and warn of bankruptcies, in the latest sign of how Europe’s energy crisis is sending shockwaves through the region’s economy”

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1571474272069062659

      1. ‘Rising cap rates erode RE values fast’

        +1

        – The RE and stonk “markets” were driven by out-of-thin-air (ex nihilo), or “out of nothing” Fed fiat dollars. This was part of their “wealth effect.” They even said so.
        – A centrally-planned, command-and-control economy picks winners and losers, but there are unintended consequences. Asset bubbles are “good” on the way up, but apparently “bad” when they burst. Central banks have no knowledge of blowing asset bubbles, even though their after effects are hugely negative for the economy.

        – Markets have a short memory. No one remembers Housing Bubble 1.0, 10-15 years ago. I guess it didn’t happen? 🙂

        – From the Twitter comments:

        David | Filled With Money
        @FilledWithMoney
        If I invest $400k in 2-year treasuries that yields ~4%, that’s $16k/year in risk free money.

        My rent is only $9,600 per year.

        That is insane.
        11:11 AM · Sep 18, 2022
        ·Twitter for iPhone

        Chris Units
        @ChrisUnits
        Last time I posted this, someone responded that this “isn’t how cap rates work.” I have yet to see a compelling argument to that effect.

        The correlation between rates and valuation is one of the first things you learn in college finance classes.
        5:49 PM · Sep 18, 2022
        ·Twitter Web App

        Chris Units
        @ChrisUnits
        ·
        15h
        Replying to
        @ChrisUnits
        Institutional investors aren’t going to invest in RE at 3% returns when they can invest in risk-free assets at >4%.

        And when you throw iBonds into the mix at 9.6%, that 3-4% cap rate is even less compelling!

        – This is basic maths; Econ. 101, and yet the Fed (aka The Bank of Evil): “See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil.” How about like Google: “Don’t be evil.” Oh wait. Google removed that line from their Code of Conduct years ago and the Fed’s “dual mandate” of shafting the public never included that, else they wouldn’t have anything to do! 🙂

        1. I think it is important to disavow you of the view that the previous bubble was 1.0. We are currently on bubble 3.0 at best and a case could be made for bubble 4.0 since we went full fiat. If you are not familiar with the Resolution Trust Corporation then do a quick review. This was a federal entity that was set up to dispose of all the savings and loan bank property that got foreclosed back in the 90’s. I can assure you the people at the fed are familiar with it and they know full well that they are blowing new bubbles on top of old bubbles. This is easily bubble 3.0.

  15. So did Brandon just announce the end of the scamdemic?

    Joe Biden says he’ll gain ‘control’ over inflation and vows to tackle the cost of living crisis crippling US – as he declares COVID pandemic ‘over’ despite HUNDREDS still dying daily

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11225899/Joe-Biden-says-hell-gain-control-inflation-vows-tackle-cost-living-crisis.html

    Joe Biden has said he does not believe the economy is as bad as people think, despite inflation being at a 40-year high.

    The President, who rarely does television interviews, made the assertions during an interview with CBS 60 Minutes on Sunday.

    1. Joe Biden says he’ll gain ‘control’ over inflation and vows to tackle the cost of living crisis crippling US

      Here’s my guess: he’s going to promise new stimmie checks to “combat the rising cost of living’ before the election.

    2. “Joe Biden has said he does not believe the economy is as bad as people think, despite inflation being at a 40-year high.”

      – There are many negative consequences to Big Government and Big Government Spending. Example: PPP loans. I don’t even want to go there. High government debt and deficit levels suck productive investment from the real economy in order to make payments, which go up with interest rates. This doesn’t even include the administrative bloat in government employment. Then add the government choosing winners and losers (central-planning/anti-free market) policies. Lions and tigers and bears! Oh my!

      https://twitter.com/EPBResearch/status/1570825784369221633?cxt=HHwWgsDQlc7u2MwrAAAA

      Eric Basmajian
      @EPBResearch
      As the government grows larger, the economy gets weaker.

      It can be argued that over 50% of government spending is wasted!

      Why does the economy get weaker as the government gets larger?

      Let’s find out👇

      1/25
      11:23 AM · Sep 16, 2022 · Twitter Web App

      The relationship between government spending and growth is an “upside down U”

      A little bit helps, more is neutral, & too much is hurtful.

      Why does this happen? Why does the economy start to weaken as the government gets too big? What’s the mechanism?

      I’ll note 3 reasons

      [First] The research paper cited above notes that taxes have a distortionary effect that is proportional to the squared tax rate.

      What does that mean?

      It means that taxes have a small impact at low tax rates and an increasingly large impact at higher tax rates.

      It’s not linear.

      Second, as noted by Olson in his 1982 book, “The Rise and Decline of Nations,”

      “As governments grow larger, organized special interest groups tend to emerge & lobby for unproductive transfers which have side effects, retarding the normal functioning of a market economy.”

      The third reason why increased government size reduces growth is due to the rearrangement of incentive structures outlined by Milton Friedman in his book, “Free to Choose.”

      —

      “Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. It is made by or stopped by the central bank.” – Milton Friedman

      “The enduring lesson of the 20th century is that socialism is a failure, and free markets are a success. But the politicians keep advocating just a little more socialism.” – Milton Friedman

      “The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money [to spend].” – Margaret Thatcher

    1. “Santa Clara County Real Estate Statistics…”

      Those Condo/Townhouse numbers are shocking. Imagine what the HOA dues look like?

  17. There haven’t been 50 illegal aliens on the wealthy island of Martha’s Vineyard since the Caterer was setting up for Barack Obama’s 60th birthday party.

    1. I think that between the landscaping companies alone they have more than 50. There are a lot of lawns to mow and weeds to pull on the island. But those guys arrive, unload the ride on mowers, do the job and then leave, unlike the new guys who just hang around.

    2. The memes on this are priceless. And you know DeSantis struck a chord because they’re still talking about it four news cycles later.

        2. My uncle was diagnosed and dead in three months of esophageal cancer. He had the jab several months prior. I do not know if the two were related. I have forgiven him for telling me that I had to get a jab to see him for which I did not. The toughest man I ever knew who was one of a few who survived in his platoon in Vietnam succumbed to this horsesh1t.

  18. There is a Huge opportunity buying in today’s market
    Sep 19, 2022 There is a Huge opportunity buying in today’s market. The housing market has cooled down. So this means you can literally buy a home for tens of thousands of dollars less than you would have paid for just a few months ago!

    The market hasn’t crashed, we are just in a normal market. Paying over $50k is not normal! Send your offer in, even if you want the seller to pay for your closing costs, buy down the interest rates, asking for all of the appliances, or you are offering a lower price. Especially on the overpriced listings that have been sitting on the market. Will you get what you asked for? Not every time but now is the time to ask!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcZdKrupCjc

    1:07. At the end it says Roseville CA.

    1. ‘Put on a seat belt’ — Ray Dalio says stock market could go down 20%; Use these 2 blue-chip stocks for protection
      Mon, September 19, 2022 at 6:36 AM·8 min read
      In this article:

      In the investing game, the rules may no longer apply. Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio warns that the Federal Reserve has set the market up for a significant fall in the near-term.

      Noting that inflation is far too high, and that the Federal Reserve is moving aggressively against it, Dalio predicts general drawdown, if not a recession, and likely sooner than later.

      “It looks like interest rates will have to rise a lot (toward the higher end of the 4.5% to 6% range). This will bring private sector credit growth down, which will bring private sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it,” Dalio opined.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blue-chip-stocks-hold-better-133647474.html

    2. The Financial Times
      Markets Briefing Equities
      US Treasury yields rise to highest in over a decade ahead of key Fed meeting
      European stocks decline on recession fears following worst week for global equity markets since June
      Wall Street sign
      The broad S&P 500 index inched lower by 0.1% in afternoon trading on Wall Street on Monday
      Jaren Kerr in Toronto and Joshua Oliver and Adam Samson in London an hour ago

      Yields on US government debt reached the highest levels in over a decade on Monday as investors braced for a third consecutive jumbo 0.75 percentage point rate increase from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

      The yield on 10-year US government debt, a benchmark for global borrowing costs, pushed above 3.5 per cent for the first time since April 2011 as investors sold the bonds, before easing back to 3.48 per cent. The yield on the two-year Treasury note rose to a 15-year high of 3.95 per cent. While the two-year yield tracks interest rate expectations particularly closely, the entire spectrum of yields has rocketed higher as expectations for a longer period of high borrowing costs have set in.

      In equities, the broad S&P 500 index inched lower by 0.1 per cent in afternoon trading on Wall Street, while Europe’s region-wide Stoxx 600 slipped 0.1 per cent. The S&P had been down as much as 0.9 per cent earlier on Monday. the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.1 per cent.

      The subdued performance on Monday comes after MSCI’s broad index of developed and emerging market stocks shed 4 per cent last week in its biggest weekly fall since June. Concerns about the health of the global economy and the spectre of further big rate rises from major central banks have spooked investors.

      “This feels like a make-or-break week. There is the residual anxiety of the repricing we went through last week and there is no sense at all that the sentiment is turning for something better,” said Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier.
      …

    1. I added it. I do those at the end and as happens I typed it in but sometimes the words don’t ‘take’ and I fail to notice.

  24. “Home Robo-Flipper Opendoor “In Danger Zone” After Losing Money On 42% Of All Transactions”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/home-robo-flipper-opendoor-saddles-massive-losses-after-losing-money-42-all-transactions

    (snip snip)

    Last November, housing consultancy firm Zillow lobbed the first warning shot that the housing bubble had burst, when it shocked markets by firing 25% of its workforce, and announcing it had scrapped its robo-flipping program after losing hundreds of millions by allowing robots to buy and sell homes.

    And while Zillow’s debacle marked the beginning of the end of the latest housing bubble, we would have thought that comparable peer roboflipping companies would have learned their lesson and either changed the parameters of the purchases and sales to generate greater profits into this housing recession(instead of merely volume) or quietly exited the business altogether. Well, we would have been dead wrong, because today we learned that yet another robo home-flipper has blown up.

    According to Bloomberg, recent startup darling Opendoor, which it describes as “a pioneer of a data-driven spin on home-flipping known as iBuying”, i.e., a robo-flipper which has been optimized not for profit but volume selling thousands of homes in a typical month, lost money on 42% of its transactions in August, according to research from YipitData. Opendoor’s performance —as measured by the prices at which it bought and sold properties — was even worse in key markets such as Los Angeles, where the company lost money on 55% of sales, and Phoenix, where the share was 76%. It’s almost as if those indicative prices you see on Zillow and OpenDoor are dead wrong.

    While the Opendoor fiasco doesn’t mean that it will shut down its iBuying business similar to Zillow, according to Mike DelPrete, a scholar-in-residence at the University of Colorado Boulder (it will when the losses become massive enough), but it demonstrates the depth of the losses — and September is likely to be even worse than August, DelPrete’s analysis shows.

    “Opendoor’s metrics are in the danger zone,” DelPrete said in an interview. “They are very close to where Zillow was in its worst moments.”

    For those unfamiliar, the roboflipping aka “iBuying” model relies on acquiring homes, making light repairs and reselling the properties, usually within a few months of the initial purchase. In many ways this is similar to the robosigning mortgage fraud that became endemic during the days of the housing bubble, where mortgage bankers were tasked with underwriting as many mortgages as possible. Well, we have a similar phenomenon this time, only now instead of mortgages, we have a cash-heavy buyer that doesn’ even need debt to bid up everything in the market in hopes of flipping it shortly after.

    And of course, when home prices were skyrocketing earlier in the year, Opendoor banked easy profits just as robosigners made millions for banks when the housing bubble was merrily bubbling up. But then it all came crashing down as soaring mortgage rates which just surpassed 6% and dwindling affordability finally pushed would-be buyers to the sidelines.

    By June, median home prices had begun to decline in some areas, especially in Western and the Sun Belt markets that had been frothiest in the pandemic boom days. The shift caught Opendoor by surprise, leaving it to offload thousands of properties it had agreed to purchase when prices were rising.

    Instead of canceling contracts, Opendoor decided to make good on the offers, explaining the decision as an investment in the company’s brand, according to a letter to investors in August. It also warned investors that it expected to lose as much as $175 million in adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter.

    Eventually, Opendoor will finish selling through the inventory it acquired before the market shifted, giving it a chance to stem its losses and start selling homes profitably again. The question is what losses will it incur in the process. The worst might already be over, with last week representing the nadir of the selloff, according to an analysis by Tyler Okland, chief executive officer of Datadoor.io.

    In the meantime, Opendoor’s struggles have been a boon for people like Troy Ready, who completed an online form to solicit a bid from the company for his Yorba Linda, California, home. He almost fell out of his chair when Opendoor offered $1.4 million, and closed on the deal at the end of March.

    Opendoor put the house back on the market two weeks later, asking just under $1.6 million, then cut the asking price every two weeks before selling the property for $1.3 million in August.

    “We managed to sell at the particular top of the market,” said Ready. “It felt like a big win.”

    For Ready it was a win, but for OpenDoor and its shareholders, an epic disaster: the company’s shares closed at $4.06 on Sept. 16, down 72% this year.

    1. ‘when home prices were skyrocketing earlier in the year, Opendoor banked easy profits’

      I don’t recall these clowns making money on their shack flipping operation.

      1. Yeah they lost money ever since founding including in the greatest housing bull market of all time. OpenDoor is going to zero. Zillow is the smart one, they got out first

  25. Colorado Springs, CO Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY As Excess, Emtpy And Defaulted Housing Inventory Blanket Denver Area

    https://www.movoto.com/co/80903/market-trends/

    As a renown economist explained, “The Fed is accomplishing their objective of double digit lending rates and resetting housing prices to dramatically lower levels.”

  26. – An artificial, debt-fueled “growth” expansion for 13 years by the Wile E. Coyote, super geniuses at the Fed, but now that the “growth” is receding like the tides, was it really growth, or just a liquidity-driven illusion? Whatever it was, it certainly wasn’t secular growth. Central planning at it’s finest by the elites, who obviously know what’s best for the little people. In this case it looks like the deep recession dead ahead is “best.” Just like a heat and energy-less winter is “best” for Europe. You can’t make this stuff up.

    https://twitter.com/OGtexasrunner/status/1571644010023849984?cxt=HHwWgMC8rc75zM8rAAAA

    Tweet
    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Texas Runner, Bubtwit 👸
    @OGtexasrunner
    Dallas just watched a backup QB being paid 358k throw more accurately than the establishment one being paid 40 mil, and he also got a win.

    Pretty sure there’s an analogy here to economists with expensive PhDs and regular people with a bachelors in econ

    #Cowboys #economics
    5:35 PM · Sep 18, 2022
    ·Twitter for iPhone

    https://twitter.com/0xWittgenstein/status/1571640703779749889?cxt=HHwWgoCy9ZS5y88rAAAA

    Ludwig Wittgenstein
    @0xWittgenstein
    People seem to kind of understand what higher rates mean for cyclical growth, but are underindexing what it means for what-was-thought-of-as-secular.
    [Image]
    5:21 PM · Sep 18, 2022
    ·Twitter Web App

    1. with expensive PhDs and regular people with a bachelors in econ

      I’m pretty sure almost all of those PhDs also have bachelors in econ. 😋

  29. “Core Inflation Soars, Retail Sales Weaken”

    https://www.dlacalle.com/en/core-inflation-soars-retail-sales-weaken/

    (snip)

    For the first time in decades, central banks are tightening their monetary policy while governments continue to spend money as if nothing has changed. Large enterprises are not harmed by the most recent rate increases as long as credit conditions are still lax. However, households and small enterprises are bearing the full weight of the financial squeeze.

    The current level of mortgage rates in the US is the highest since 2008. According to Reuters, the average interest rate for a 30-year mortgage hit 6.02% last week.

    A perfect storm of declining sales and increased finance costs hurts small enterprises. While retail sales rose 0.3% in August, the data for July was corrected to indicate a 0.4% decline in sales. In addition, after July’s numbers were negatively revised, core retail sales were unchanged in August. This indicates a sharp decline in sales in real terms. Since official retail sales aren’t inflation-adjusted, August’s 9.1% increase over the prior year was actually flat.

    In order to combat inflation, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates and moderated liquidity requirements, which continue to have an impact on consumers but have no appreciable effect on government expenditure.

    Government expenditure continues despite the Federal Reserve’s excessive lag.

    For seventeen months, inflation has exceeded the Federal Reserve’s target, and increased expenditure by the government only fuels the fire. Core inflation continues to rise.

    When the money supply is completely absorbed by new government debt and public deficit spending is kept at record high levels, rate increases are insufficient. Because of this, yearly inflation is still at a three-decade high of 8.3%. Furthermore, core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose to 6.3% in August. This month-over-month growth of 0.6% exceeded economists’ predictions by a factor of two.

    According to analysts, inflation is decreasing and, based on consensus projections, will reach 4% or less in 2023. But if all goes according to plan, that means that in two years, consumers and businesses will see cumulative inflation of at least 12%.

    Also keep in mind that since March, shipping rates and commodity prices have corrected, which brings us to these poor August numbers.

    Because stocks and bonds are declining, market participants are pleading with central banks to change course. An investor base that has not seen tight monetary policies in more than ten years becomes more worried. Governments are also growing more concerned about rising public debt yields.

    Governments like low rates because they profit from both, even if inflation surges.

    A stagflation like to the 1970s is considerably more likely if central banks alter their approach and stop raising interest rates while governments implement so-called “anti-inflation measures” that entail increasing debt, expenditure, and currency creation.

    There isn’t a magic bullet for inflation. It is quite simple to start and extremely challenging to stop. Governments will continue to introduce new aid initiatives that fuel inflationary pressures if they have a financial motive to grow their debt.

    The notion of cost-push inflation is disproved by rising core inflation. The majority of goods and services would see flat or declining pricing if the amount of money remained constant. If there are not more currency units available, then costs do not increase uniformly.

    Those who predict a decline in inflation are referring to the rate of price increases rather than a decrease in overall costs. Not that prices would decrease, but rather that the annual rate of price increases will slow down.

    Because margins are shrinking and real incomes are declining, this new reality of enduringly high prices is difficult for businesses and families to accept.

    The reality that households and small companies are getting poorer and the middle class is being destroyed is true whether you are bullish or bearish on the rate of change of prices.

  30. “Why Are Walmart And Other Major US Retailers Canceling Billions Of Dollars In Orders As Summer Comes To An End?”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/why-are-walmart-and-other-major-us-retailers-canceling-billions-dollars-orders

    (snip)

    Do they know something that they aren’t telling us? As you will see below, Walmart, Target and other major U.S. retailers are literally canceling billions of dollars in orders ahead of the coming holiday season. I have never heard of such a thing happening before, and under normal conditions it wouldn’t make any sense at all. The holiday season is typically the busiest time of the year for retailers, and at this time in 2021 there was actually a great deal of concern that there wouldn’t be enough inventory due to global supply chain problems. But now everything has changed. All of a sudden major retailers are feverishly canceling orders, and this would only make sense if a severe economic downturn was imminent.

    For example, Walmart is admitting that it has canceled “billions of dollars in orders” as we approach the upcoming holiday season…

    John David Rainey, Walmart’s EVP and CFO, said it had cleared most summer inventory, was reducing exposure in electronics, home and sporting goods, and canceled “billions of dollars in orders” to realign inventories. He said, “Our actions in Q3 will allow us to make significant progress toward rationalizing absolute levels and mix, which will enable our stores to be well positioned ahead of the holiday season.”

    It is extremely odd that Walmart would decide to do such a thing.

    Recently I had an opportunity to stroll through a Walmart, and there were plenty of inventory holes.

    So what would make them suddenly cancel “billions of dollars” in orders that they thought that they were going to need for the holiday season?

    Perhaps some enterprising reporter will be willing to ask them such a question.

    Meanwhile, we just learned that Target has also canceled “more than $1.5 billion” in orders…

    Target said it had reduced its “inventory exposure in discretionary categories” throughout Q2 by canceling more than $1.5 billion of orders in these categories and marking down products.

    Target is much smaller than Walmart is, and so for Target to cancel so many orders is a really big deal.

    And it turns out that Kohl’s and Under Armour have also been canceling large numbers of orders as well…

    Kohl’s has also pulled back on order receipts and increased promotions to get through an inventory glut.

    “We have taken action to address inventory, including increasing promotions, being aggressive on clearing excess inventory and pulling back on receipts,” said Kohl’s CFO Jill Timm in a call with investors.

    Under Armour also said it made some proactive cancellations due to supply chain constraints to ensure that “the right inventory was coming in at the right time,” said interim president and CEO Colin Browne in a call with investors.

    These retailers are obviously scared that they will end up stuck with massive amounts of inventory that they cannot sell.

    Do they believe that economic activity during the months ahead will be much lower than they originally anticipated?

    One corporate executive that is actually publicly admitting that he believes that a recession is coming is FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam…

    FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam told CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Thursday that he believes a recession is impending for the global economy.

    “I think so. But you know, these numbers, they don’t portend very well,” Subramaniam said in response to Cramer’s question of whether the economy is “going into a worldwide recession.”

    The CEO’s pessimism came after FedEx missed estimates on revenue and earnings in its first quarter. The company also withdrew its full year guidance.

    Sadly, he is right on target.

    For months, I have been warning that the economic numbers were telling us that big trouble was on the way, and now everyone can see it.

    But unlike the “Great Recession” of 2008 and 2009, this time we are also going to have to deal with raging inflation even as economic activity slows down all around us.

    In fact, the Wall Street Journal is ominously warning that U.S. consumers “are set to pay even more this winter” as heating costs continue to soar to absolutely ridiculous levels…

    U.S. utility customers, faced with some of their largest bills in years, are set to pay even more this winter as natural-gas prices continue to climb.

    Natural-gas prices have more than doubled this year because of a global supply shortage made worse by the war in Ukraine, and they are expected to remain elevated for months as fuel is needed to light and heat homes during the winter. The supply crunch has made it substantially more expensive for utilities to purchase or produce power, and those costs are being passed on to customers.

    The cost of living has been rising much faster than our paychecks have for quite some time now, and a lot more pain is on the horizon.

    I really like how Brandon Smith recently summarized the current state of the U.S. economy…

    A common refrain from people who are critical of alternative economists is that we have been predicting crisis for so long that “eventually we will be right.” These are generally people who don’t understand the nature of economic decline – It’s like an avalanche that builds over time, then breaks and quickly escalates as it flows down the mountain. What they don’t grasp is that they are in the middle of an economic collapse RIGHT NOW, and they just can’t see it because they have been acclimated to the presence of the snow and cold.

    Economic decline is a process that takes many years, and while you might get an event like the market crash of 1929 or the crash of 2008, these moments of panic are nothing more than the wreckage left behind by the great wave of tumbling ice that everyone should have seen coming far in advance, but they refused.

    That is so true.

    We are already in the midst of a raging economic crisis, but things will get so much worse during the months and years to come.

    Walmart, Target and other major retailers are working really hard to get prepared for what is coming.

    Are you?

    I hope so, because at this point it should be glaringly obvious to everyone that exceedingly challenging times are on the way.

  31. “Tesla Is Hiking Supercharger Prices ‘Significantly’ Across Europe”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tesla-hiking-supercharger-prices-significantly-across-europe

    (snip)

    Prices are going up at the pump…err, we mean the Tesla Superchargers.

    According to a new report from electrek, Tesla is increasing prices at its Supercharger stations “significantly” across Europe as the continent continues to deal with a sprawling energy crisis that shows no signs of slowing.

    The additional price hikes come after Tesla has already increased prices throughout 2022.

    “Due to an increase in energy prices, we are adjusting Supercharging pricing across Europe,” Tesla wrote in a letter to its owners in Europe this week. The rising prices not only are a burden for EV owners, but they are starting to challenge the narrative that EVs are cheaper to own and operate on a day to day basis.

    “One of the biggest advantages of electric vehicles remains that their cost of operations is much lower than vehicles with internal combustion engines,” electrek wrote. But with rising prices at Supercharging stations, who knows how much longer that perceived “benefit” will continue to help buoy demand for electric vehicles.

    As we noted earlier this month, energy bills in Europe are expected to rise by €2 Trillion. The trigger for this exponential surge in costs: since January 2020, 1-year forward gas and power prices – usually the reference when signing new energy supply contracts for families or industrial customers – have each increased by more than 13x. The following exhibit shows this evolution, rebased to 100.

    The blog lamented that it used to cost no more than $5 or $10 for a full charge at a Supercharger. Now, prices are approaching $30.

    One Zero Hedge contributor in Europe experienced the rise in prices firsthand this week when an Uber driver, sporting an EV other than a Tesla, remarked that electricity prices had soared over the past week, and that it now costs about $30 to charge fully at a Supercharging station.

    A couple dollars more and it’ll almost cost the same as filling up with a tank of gas. Oh, the irony…

    1. Cleaning fees are ridiculous because of COVID. I’m sure owners are pocketing money on them. We reluctantly have to use Airbnb to stay at Shaver Lake. I hate EVERYTHING about it.

      1. My siblings and I rented a beach house for a week. THere was a $300+ cleaning fee, even though the rental was well over $3500.

        Anyway, we had a great time.

        2. $200 cleaning fee for 3 nights at $280/night for 3 people. Previous year, $175 cleaning fee for 3 nights at $126.33/night for 3 people.

  35. Finance ·Housing
    We’re entering the next stage of the housing market downturn—3 things to expect heading forward
    BY Lance Lambert
    September 18, 2022 at 2:46 PM PDT
    A home-shaped graphic placed against the frozen ground
    Home buyers are done paying top dollar.
    Photo illustration by Fortune; original photos by Getty Images

    Back in June, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear: The housing market would go through a “reset.”

    “I’d say if you are a homebuyer, somebody or a young person looking to buy a home, you need a bit of a reset. We need to get back to a place where supply and demand are back together and where inflation is down low again, and mortgage rates are low again,” Powell told reporters.

    Whenever a central bank moves from monetary easing to monetary tightening, there’s going to be an impact on a rate-sensitive sector like real estate. That impact, of course, is going to be even greater when monetary tightening comes after the asset class—residential real estate—spiked 43% in just over two years. Powell admitted that much in June. However, Powell was noncommittal as to whether the rate shock would push home prices lower.

    Fast forward to September, and we no longer need to question if the housing “reset” will affect home prices. Back in June, the U.S. housing market was still just in the early innings of a sharp drop in housing activity. Since, we’ve seen housing activity, including home sales and home construction levels, go much lower. But as data rolls in for August, we now have clear evidence that the housing market downturn has moved beyond that first stage (i.e. a sharp drop in housing activity) and into the second stage (i.e. falling home prices).

    “The longer that [mortgage] rates stay elevated, our view is that housing is going to continue to feel it and have this reset mode. And the affordability resetting mechanism right now that has to happen is on [home] prices. And so there are a lot of markets across the country where we’re forecasting that home prices are going to fall double-digits,” Rick Palacios Jr., head of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, tells Fortune.

    Let’s take a deeper look at the three elements that’ll shift as we move into the second stage of the housing market downturn.
    …
    https://fortune.com/2022/09/18/housing-market-downturn-moves-into-second-stage-falling-home-prices/

  38. “Fauci, Klain, Yellen, Kendi Headline Pfizer-Funded, Far-Left Conference In D.C. This Week”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fauci-klain-yellen-kendi-headline-pfizer-funded-far-left-conference-dc-week

    (snip)

    Anthony Fauci is set to headline a major far-left conference whose lead sponsors include COVID-19 vaccine maker Pfizer, The National Pulse can reveal. Fauci will appear alongside race-baiter Ibram X. Kendi, White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and more.

    The September 21st to 23rd Atlantic magazine festival will take place at the Wharf in Washington, D.C., with tickets going for a cool $400.00 per person. Topics are set to include critical race theory, diversity, Ukraine, censorship, climate change, and centralizing healthcare and pandemic response control.

    Fauci – who has overseen most of America’s COVID-19 response in his role as the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases – has long been the subject of “fact checks” by corporate media sources such as Reuters, which deny his links with Big Pharma group Pfizer. The chairman and former Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the Thomson Reuters Foundation– James C. Smith – is a top investor and board member for Pfizer, as The National Pulse revealed in December 2021.

    Pfizer vaccine studies have also shown adverse effects on the health of its recipients, including altered menstrual cycles in women, lowered sperm count in men, and cardiovascular problems in children and young adults. Despite the flaws – or perhaps because of them – the company hired a record-breaking number of politically connected lobbyists to help advance vaccine mandates.

    Anti-America Line Up.
    Other participants in the event include White House Chief of Staff Ronald A. Klain, “anti-racist” activist Ibram X. Kendi, top “Critical Race Theory” scholar Kimberlé Crenshaw, as well as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

    The first day of the conference includes “underwritten” panels by Pfizer, Genentech, the Walton Family Foundation, and Edward Jones. The website explains that “underwritten” sessions are “not produced by the Atlantic’s Editorial Team”. In other words, they are long, paid “advertorial” by major corporate interests. Underwritten sessions account for half of the first day’s events; 62.5 percent of the second day’s events; and none of the last day’s events.

    The second day’s programming includes a panel on “misinformation”, underwritten by the Boston Consulting Group, and starring TikTok’s “Misinformation Researcher” Abbie Richards, as well as Louis Jacobson from the partisan “fact checker” Politifact. Richards is unlikely to be quizzed on recent revelations that dark money Democrat groups are paying for misinformation to be spread on her Chinese Communist-owned platform by leading Obama acolytes.

    Southern Company is then underwriting a panel on George Floyd, followed by the MacArthur Foundation hyping ‘Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion’ and Penguin Books promoting critical race theory.

  39. Karma makes a visit to Hollywood …

    “‘The Environment Has Gotten Worse’: TV & Film Industry Sputters As Cost Cutting And Layoffs Take Hold

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environment-has-gotten-worse-tv-film-industry-sputters-cost-cutting-and-layoffs-take-hold

    (snip)

    First it was the streaming studio shift that shook up Hollywood – companies like Netflix were beating out movie theaters and traditional studios publishing content that went direct to streaming. Now, Hollywood is getting shaken up again – this time, because layoffs are on their way.

    The struggling TV and film industry continues to run face first into bad news. This week it was reported that Warner Bros. Discovery was firing 100 TV ad salespeople at the same time that Paramount has considered ending offering Showtime as a standalone service, Bloomberg reported.

    Netflix followed suit with their own layoffs, the report says. The company has reportedly let go hundreds of employees and abandoned some of its office space. At the same time, the firm’s stock price has collapsed and fallen more than 60% from its all time highs.

    Walt Disney Co. Chief Executive Officer Bob Chapek said in a recent interview with Bloomberg: “The very foundation that the streaming business sits on has been devolving on sand. It’s all been shifting.”

    Streaming companies are having trouble getting projects off the ground, a headwind that CEOs like Chapek, who promised profitability and a cut of spending by 2024 for Disney+, have been faced with. Warner Bros. is no longer approving HBO Max project budgets that are more than $30 to $40 million.

    Bill Mechanic, a former head of Fox Filmed Entertainment said: “Nobody wants to do anything other than sequels, It’s harder. The environment has gotten worse.”

    Sheenie Ambardar, a Los Angeles psychiatrist who has clients in the entertainment field, said: “There is a general sense of uncertainty of when things will pick back up. There’s a general sense of where is this going and how are we going to get out of this?”

    Other studios are regularly asking for 20% reductions in budgets and are outright cancelling projects. “Woke,” a Hulu series “about a Black cartoonist”, and “Chad,” a TBS series that was set to revolve around a Persian-American family, were both just cancelled, according to the Bloomberg report.

    Lower budget products are the first ones to feel the cuts. Chris Fenton, an executive producer, said: “The fear in town is it’s an all-or-nothing game. Either you’re involved in the super-premium category or you’re nervous.”

    William Simon, who does executive recruiting for Hollywood put it simply: “Everybody’s pumping the brakes.”

    1. Walt Disney Co. Chief Executive Officer Bob Chapek said in a recent interview with Bloomberg: “The very foundation that the streaming business sits on has been devolving on sand. It’s all been shifting.”

      Disney is apparently also worried about their theme park business, as long time regulars are starting to say that it’s too expensive and that “the magic is gone”. I got an email from them, offering me 20% off hotel rooms during the normally jam packed Christmas season.

      Quite the collection of problems as their 3 main lines of business are having problems.

  40. “Lessons From Martha’s Vineyard: Hit the Elites Where They Live”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-09-19/lessons-marthas-vineyard-hit-elites-where-they-live

    (snip)

    In a well-choreographed made-for TV political drama, DeSantis recently shuttled dozens of illegal immigrants to the neoliberal wonderland that is Martha’s Vineyard.

    It had everything one could want in a juicy culture war soap opera: exposure of hypocrisy on a grand scale, comeuppance for the elites wrecking the nation, corporate media news actors’ crocodile tears.

    Apparently he forgot the caveat: “just not to Martha’s Vineyard where my donors have summer homes.”

    This is the modern tale of two cities:

    When the privileged Country Club classes that populate Martha’s Vineyard are made to bear the brutal impacts of their policing it’s “theatre” and a “political stunt.”
    When average people in smalltown Texas get flooded with illegal immigrants, that’s just another Tuesday. If they complain to the government that’s supposed to control border crossings, they’re denounced as bigots.

    “We don’t have the resources to house them,” lamented the Martha’s Vineyard homeless shelter coordinator.

    Imagine the gall. Martha’s Vineyard is one of the wealthiest locales in the whole country. If it can’t swing the resources to house and feed 50 new immigrants, how can cash-strapped cities across the US like Brownsville, Texas be expected to handle millions of migrants every year illegally trampling over the border into its hands?

    The reality is that she doesn’t care how, or even if, these immigrants eat, or what effect their illegal presence will have on the society or economy of the mainland.

    As she explains in the clip, she just wants them off her lawn – out of sight, out of mind – so she and her neighbors can get back to the real work of virtue-signaling in peace.

    Within less than 48 hours of their arrival to Martha’s Vineyard, the newly arrived Sacred Immigrants of Color©, Our Greatest Strength©, whom the island’s residents uniformly adore and celebrate as a matter of religious conviction, were unceremoniously shipped off to a nearby military base.

    When the corporate state overlords become first in line to feel the pain, they’re likelier to act responsibly. We have to force them to reckon with the consequences of their own policies.

    This can’t be a one-off thing.

    Further planeloads of sacred, diverse Immigrants of Color© should be distributed to their backyards post-haste. In addition to continuing nonstop service to Martha’s Vineyard, regular planeloads/busloads of new arrivals should be regularly delivered supply chain-style to:

    The Hamptons
    Suburban DC
    Silicon Valley/Palo Alto
    Beverly Hills
    Berkeley
    Department of Homeland Security headquarters
    30 Rockefeller Plaza (NBC headquarters in Manhattan)
    Wall St.
    Every blue state governor’s mansion
    In addition, the government actors, “nonprofit” philanthropists, and corporate social engineers should also be the very first in line to be made to:

    Eat crickets and ants and whatever other bugs they want to mandate us to eat as their main protein source
    Wear carbon trackers to track their consumption (their frequent private jet-setting would break the meter)
    Receive, under threat of imprisonment or fines pursuant to the brutal vaccine mandates they championed, the experimental drugs that they fraudulently push through the regulatory process without following normal testing procedures
    What’s good for the goose is good for the gander!

    1. Imagine the gall. Martha’s Vineyard is one of the wealthiest locales in the whole country. If it can’t swing the resources to house and feed 50 new immigrants, how can cash-strapped cities across the US like Brownsville, Texas be expected to handle millions of migrants every year illegally trampling over the border into its hands?

      Bottom line, they are accustomed to getting away with everything they do. Some weeks ago I saw a comment on Instapundit’s “open thread”. Someone wrote “I am tired of reading ‘conservatives eviscerate liberals on topic X’, then nothing changes”

      As Victor Davis Hanson says, they have no issue with lying and exempting themselves from the consequences of their bad decisions. For them only one thing matters: winning. Winning at any cost. If killing half the country is what it takes, and they can pull it off (which they still can’t), then they will.

      They are an existential threat to the American people.

    2. Within less than 48 hours of their arrival to Martha’s Vineyard, the newly arrived Sacred Immigrants of Color©, Our Greatest Strength©, whom the island’s residents uniformly adore and celebrate as a matter of religious conviction, were unceremoniously shipped off to a nearby military base.

      While the MSM did its best to send that story to the memory hole.

      I was chatting with a young “educated” (and leftist) couple over the weekend. I asked them their thoughts on the European energy crisis. They had NO idea of what I was talking about. “You know, Putin cutting off their natural gas supplies”. Oh that! We thought that they got other sources to cover that.

      They had no idea of skyrocketing natgas and electric bills or emergency measures to reduce consumption and prevent black outs.

      They also have no idea about why thieves have tried twice to steal their car in Dumver, other than “bad luck.”

      Sometimes it just feels hopeless.

  41. The Financial Times
    Opinion
    Electric vehicles
    California’s car culture isn’t ready for net zero
    The low-riders on Sunset Boulevard are horrified by the governor’s radical environmental policy
    Christopher Grimes
    A line-up of classic old cars. California practically invented car culture
    Christopher Grimes 9 hours ago

    On a warm Saturday night in August, Sal Preciado parked his gleaming 1971 Monte Carlo on Sunset Boulevard in front of El Clásico, the tattoo parlour he has owned for the past 14 years. All evening, Sal and his friends watched as a procession of “low-riders” — lavishly customised classic American cars — rumbled up and down the boulevard past his shop.

    It was an old school Los Angeles cruise, one that Sal had organised, and the mood along Sunset was festive. Some of the low-riders were tricked out with hydraulics that made the enormous steel cars bounce like bedsprings, while others had “scrape plates” that left trails of sparks flying off the pavement. Throngs of dancing, beer-drinking Angelinos on both sides of Sunset cheered at the automotive acrobatics.

    I thought about the low-riders a couple of weeks later when California governor Gavin Newsom enacted his plan to phase out sales of petrol-fuelled cars by 2035, part of the state’s goal of reaching zero carbon emissions by 2045. The policy was groundbreaking, a first in the US.

    But Newsom’s initiative also set in motion what was probably an inevitable collision between two of California’s defining traits: its cutting-edge environmental policy and its citizens’ almost erotic love affair with the car.

    There is no question which side Sal is on. He’s got nothing against protecting the environment, but he also cannot find anything to like about electric cars.

    “I can’t even imagine electric low-riders,” he told me, adding that driving customised, gas-guzzling American cars is a defining part of life in his native East LA. “We all lowride. It’s part of the California culture. Everybody likes these cars, man — American-made cars.”
    …

    1. “We all lowride. It’s part of the California culture. Everybody likes these cars, man — American-made cars.”

      Maybe in east LA. If you’re an average Californian, you’re more likely to have a Toyota or a Honda than a low rider.

  42. Wonder why the local car dealers have almost no new inventory and an actual used car on the lot can sell for more than a new paper car which might never get built? Why many things seem to be backordered, sometimes with no known delivery date, like large appliances?

    Per the labor department, productivity fell 7.5% in the first quarter of 2022.

    7.5% In just one quarter. This looks like a collapse in progress.

    Welcome to Joe Biden’s America.

  43. Whistleblower Claims FBI Schemed to Distort January 6 Cases into Nationwide ‘Domestic Violent Extremism’ Epidemic

    ASHLEY OLIVER
    19 Sep 2022

    A whistleblower has accused the FBI’s Washington Field Office of using cases related to the January 6 U.S. Capitol riot to “overstate” the threat of “domestic violent extremism” in America, according to Judiciary Committee ranking member Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH).

    The whistleblower alleged the FBI office did not follow standard investigative practices for the January 6 cases when it moved the cases to various local Field Offices around the country based on where the case subjects were from, Jordan revealed in a letter addressed to FBI Director Christopher Wray on Monday.

    January 6 cases “should all be officially led by the WFO [Washington Field Office] and categorized as WFO cases,” according to the letter, but instead, a “task force” dispatched instructions to open January 6 investigations to local field offices nationwide.

    Those local offices received the cases, making it look as if they were conducting the investigations on the cases, when, in reality, the Washington Field Office continued to conduct the bulk of the work, according to the letter.

    The whistleblower told Jordan:

    The manipulative casefile practice creates false and misleading crime statistics. Instead of hundreds of investigations stemming from a single, black swan incident at the Capitol, FBI and DOJ officials point to significant increases in domestic violent extremism and terrorism around the United States.

    Jordan noted in the letter, “Such an artificial case categorization scheme allows FBI leadership to misleadingly point to ‘significant’ increases in DVE threats nationwide,” which supports a narrative being perpetuated by the Biden administration.

    The whistleblower also alleged that January 6 cases were inappropriately taking priority over other cases, citing an instance of being “told that child sexual abuse material investigations were no longer an FBI priority and should be referred to local law enforcement agencies,” according to the letter.

    Read a copy of the letter below:

    https://www.breitbart.com/

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