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Real Estate Market Continues To Struggle

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  1. From the first 4:36 video:

    Buying a Foreclosure in Sacramento CA | Are Foreclosures Going to Increase in Sacramento
    Adopt a Dog Realtor – Tim Pantle
    Oct 4, 2022 Are foreclosures coming to Sacramento? If so, how do you buy a foreclosed home?

    The second 20 minute video:

    A Messy Situation In Toronto Real Estate Right Now – Sept 28
    Team Sessa Real Estate
    Oct 4, 2022
    Toronto Real Estate Market Report for the week of Sept 22 – Sept

    The third 5:44 video:

    Brampton Home Prices Collapse 29%. Homes Sales Drop 56% in September.
    Honest real estate talk
    Oct 4, 2022 Brampton real estate market continues to struggle in September. Home sales down 56% since the peak of the market. Prices are down around 25% on average.
    Detached homes in Brampton cost 29% less now. Is the real estate market crashing?

    The last 14:12 video:

    Unaffordability is About to Peak! Sellers Have 30-45 Days Left to Sell.
    Jon Flynn Broker of Record, Flynn Real Estate Inc.
    Oct 4, 2022 Sellers, You might want to think again if you’re planning to wait. I discuss why now is the time to sell in this video along with statistics from Calgary, Ontario, PEI (Prince Edward Island) and New Brunswick.

  2. What most experts seem to agree upon is that this is not a “normal” housing market or even a normal correction in prices. Inflation, global economic uncertainty, rising mortgage rates and a still tight supply of homes for sale are all weighing on potential buyers. It remains to be seen how far they will pull back and how much that pullback will cool prices.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/high-mortgage-rates-tight-supply-and-economic-uncertainty-heres-whats-happening-with-home-prices/ar-AA12Ayaj

    ‘most experts seem to agree upon is…’

    A poll? A round table of ‘experts’? Just pulled out of the writers a$$?

  3. As you may have noticed, there’s a lot happening in the housing market right now. It was booming when rates were low, but now not so much with the Federal Reserve sharply raising interest rates to quash inflation. Here’s the sit-rep from economist Mark Zandi at Moody’s Analytics:

    House prices, which had skyrocketed throughout much of the pandemic, are now quickly coming back to earth. Prices are down since peaking in June in approximately half the nation’s 400-plus metropolitan areas, and a lot more price declines are in train. Nationwide, house prices as measured by the Moody’s Analytics repeat sales index are expected to fall almost 10% peak-to-trough, with the bottom expected in summer 2024. And this assumes the economy is able to skirt a recession. If the economy suffers a typical downturn, peak-to-trough declines approaching 20% seem likely. This means that some of the previously highest flying areas in the South and Mountain West will see declines upward of 30%. This would only retrace one-year of price gains, and thus only those buyers who purchased their homes recently would be underwater—with home values below the amount due on the mortgages—but mortgage defaults and foreclosures are sure to rise. A scenario in which conditions become as dark as during the financial crisis is all but impossible. However, there is still room for significant economic damage.

    https://www.aei.org/economics/housing-prices-and-elections/

    Ho Chi Zandi, yer a perma bear.

    1. I will tell ya Zandi.

      Any price gain in 21 and 22, will evaporate by fall 23
      Recession will take another 15 to 20 percent by winter 24.

      Easy come, easy go. And one more thing, “fook you!”

  4. The overall rate of foreclosure filings increased by close to 14% between July and August. This uptick follows the dip in foreclosure activity between June and July, which experts believed was likely related to a typical Q3 seasonal drop. The number of U.S. properties with foreclosure filings in August was 34,501, according to ATTOM Data Solutions. This is up close to 118% from a year ago when foreclosures remained at historic lows due to federal government and mortgage servicing industry pandemic protections.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/states-where-foreclosures-are-soaring/ss-AA11UwN2

  5. Deaths by violence are up. Last year, 134 people died in killings such as stabbings and shootings. That is an increase from 93 the year she took office. This year violent deaths are nearly on par with last year as of Tuesday.

    “Libby Schaaf will go down as one of the worst mayors in Oakland’s history,” said Cat Brooks, co-founder of the Anti Police-Terror Project, which aims to end police terror in communities of color. “She unconditionally supported the police.”

    Brooks said Schaaf “wounded the soul of Oakland” by working to gentrify Oakland, making it like San Francisco.

    “We must now cope with how we heal our city,” Brooks said. “More than any other mayor, she will be known as the person who presided over the destruction of Black Oakland.”

    https://www.ktvu.com/news/some-take-aim-at-oakland-mayor-libby-schaaf-as-her-8-years-wind-down

  6. House for $125K below appraised value? Community land trust sells 1st home in Asheville

    Program applicants must have household income of 80% area median income or below, which is $45,000 for one person household and $51,400 for a two-person, according to the land trust’s website.

    “Being a new homeowner is one of the best feelings I’ve ever experienced. It has been an amazing journey for my daughter and I,” Lindsey said in an Aug. 19 release from the land trust. “I am not only building equity for my immediate family, but I am also getting the opportunity to generate wealth for those who come after me.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/house-for-125k-below-appraised-value-community-land-trust-sells-1st-home-in-asheville/ar-AA12Cswn

    1. “House for $125K below appraised value?”

      But the buyer does not get to own the land the house sits on.

      “In order to ensure permanent affordability, the community land trust retains ownership of the land on which the home sits, allowing the nonprofit to control the cost, and sell the house itself to an income-qualified buyer.”

  7. Stunning – nearly a fourth of downtown San Francisco office space still vacant
    The Business Journals|22 hours ago
    A handful of S.F. commodity office building sales in the third quarter of the year point to an interest in value-add or adaptive reuse, according to market insiders.

  8. Utah startup Homie lays off staff as CEO steps down
    The Salt Lake Tribune|19 hours ago
    Hanna co-founded Homie as well as the property management software company Entrata. “As the real estate market continues to shift, Homie was forced to evaluate the current business structure and let go 40 team members last week,

    1. A link and a snip …

      https://www.sltrib.com/news/2022/10/04/homie-lays-off-staff-ceo-steps/#:~:text=Homie%2C%20a%20startup%20that%20aims%20to%20disrupt%20the,last%20week%20ahead%20of%20CEO%20Johnny%20Hanna%E2%80%99s%20resignation.

      (snip)

      “This same time last year there were 3,185 active homes for sale in Utah,” wrote marketing manager Nikki Hernandez, who has since been laid off. “There are now 7,984 active homes for sale. More inventory means homes will sit on the market longer — a trend we are starting to see in Salt Lake City.”

      Hmmmm … so a shortage of inventory will increase sales while an abundance of inventory will not. Interesting.

      There is no urgency to buy when there is abundance but there is urgency to buy when there is scarcity.

      The scarcity of houses offered up for sale will feed on itself in that prospective sellers will hold off on putting their houses on the market hoping to cash in on higher prices. After it has been seen that prices have peaked sellers flood the market with inventory which sends a signal to buyers to hold off on their buying as prices begin to fall. Less buying coupled with more houses put up for sale results in more inventory; More inventory furthur strengthens the signal to buyers to hold off on their buying. And thus the strength of the price decline strengthens.

      And on and on it goes.

      1. “3,185 active homes for sale in Utah,” wrote marketing manager Nikki Hernandez, who has since been laid off. “There are now 7,984 active homes for sale”

        Wow the shortage
        Wow the organic growth
        Wow it burns

        1. There are now 7,984 active homes for sale

          In the whole state of Utah? There are 646 in just my little burg.

  9. The Twitter debt package is comprised of $6.5 billion in leveraged loans, $3 billion in secured bonds, and another $3 billion in unsecured bonds.

    “From the banks’ perspective, this is less than ideal,” said Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives. “The banks have their backs to the wall – they have no choice but to finance the deal.”

    Leveraged financing sources have also previously told Reuters that potential losses for Wall Street banks involved in the Twitter debt in such a market could run to hundreds of millions of dollars.

    Just last week, a group of lenders had to cancel efforts to sell $3.9 billion of debt that financed Apollo Global Management Inc’s deal to buy telecom and broadband assets from Lumen Technologies Inc.

    That came on the heels of a group of banks having to take a $700 million loss on the sale of about $4.55 billion in debt backing the leveraged buyout of business software company Citrix Systems Inc.

    “The banks are on the hook for Twitter — they took a big loss on the Citrix deal a few weeks ago and they’re facing an even bigger headache with this deal,” said Chris Pultz, portfolio manager for merger arbitrage at Kellner Capital.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/banks-financing-musks-twitter-deal-030554409.html

  10. Jacksonville, FL Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Double Digit Price Declines Expand Across Florida

    https://www.movoto.com/fl/32204/market-trends/

    As a renown economist explained, “The Fed is accomplishing their objective of double digit lending rates and resetting housing prices to dramatically lower levels.”

  11. Amazon.com Inc. has paused hiring for corporate positions in its retail business, the latest sign that the world’s largest e-commerce company is adjusting its workforce to slowing online sales.

    Amazon is the latest tech company to try to control costs amid signs of a weakening economy. Meta Platforms Inc. last month announced plans to reduce headcount for the first time.

    Chief Executive Officer Andy Jassy has pledged to unwind part of a pandemic-era expansion that saddled Amazon with a surfeit of warehouse space and too many employees. The company has shuttered, delayed or abandoned plans for dozens of warehouses in the US and Europe, Bloomberg reported in September.

    Amazon reduced its workforce — primarily through attrition, the company says — by almost 100,000 people between March and June, the biggest quarterly decline in its history.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-freezes-corporate-hiring-retail-183933246.html

    Saddled.

    1. 100,000 people between March and June

      That’s a big turnover for just three months. Still only a small fraction of how much they expanded during the shop from home craze.

      1. It would be interesting to see the breakdown in that number. How many are $15-20/hr grunts vs. six figure professionals.

    2. An Amazon recruiter just contacted me. I was told that the first step would be me taking a “programming assessment” (AKA a test). I bluntly told the recruiter “Hey, you cold called me. I didn’t apply for a job with Amazon. I’m not taking any stupid test.” The recruiter hemmed and hawed and said he could try to get the assessment waived. I told him to not bother, as I wasn’t interested anyway. From what I have heard Amazon is a sweatshop for coders.

      I am hearing that more and more people have been refusing to take coding tests. And these tests are increasingly non trivial. My old boss works at NetApp and was trying to recruit me. The problem was that NetApp’s coding test could take a whole weekend to complete. I told him this was absurd, he knew who I was, as did many others at NetApp. and that I wasn’t going to burn a weekend taking a stupid test. He told me that he couldn’t waive the test. He also told me that many candidates, when they saw how ridiculous the test was, just ghosted him.

      1. just ghosted him

        No surprise. I can’t tell you how many hours I’ve wasted preparing for and interviewing to have my resume used to market to potential clients, pumped for inside information, or asked off that bat if I’d accept of a salary of $X because 3 or 4 other candidates would. NetApp’s process means they’ll end up with the most desperate.

        1. NetApp’s process means they’ll end up with the most desperate.

          I think the only people who will agree to take the tests are:

          1) The laid off
          2) Those who hate their current job
          3) Those looking for a big salary increase

          NetApp was able to scoop up a lot of people after the big 2017 layoff At Oracle in Broomfield. They all jumped through the hoops.

          But as my old boss said, it has become next to impossible to recruit people now. And NetApp has plenty of company when it comes to absurd tests (we now do this where I work too). And I’m not talking about standing in front of a whiteboard and writing some pseudocode. No, they want real code, that compiles and runs. They even ask you to write functional or unit test code to verify that your stuff works. Like I said, you can easily burn a whole weekend doing this, and just to get a “we have decided to not move forward with you” email, with no explanation of why.

      2. “From what I have heard Amazon is a sweatshop for coders.”

        Aren’t they all? I am sure the lunch is free and nice, but this was so the idiots stay in office and code, code and code.

        1. Aren’t they all?

          Many are; but not all. Most places where i have worked, people would clock out at a reasonable time. But Amazon has a special reputation of expecting you to put in a lot of unpaid overtime.

          1. expecting you to put in a lot of unpaid overtime

            A long time ago I was working for the largest of large companies in the process engineering group. Taking the elevator down at 5:30, a guy in the back who was several levels of management above me said “A performers don’t leave at 5:00.”

            I turned around and smiled at him and said “Don, did you forget that we’re car pooling?”

          2. I had NYC law firm colleagues who went to the gym then ordered dinner and took a car home on a client to appear staying late and working harder.

          3. took a car home on a client to appear staying late and working harder
            My attorney cousin in NYC bowed out. Worried about what she saw going on.

  12. Auckland median house sale price plunges $180,000 in 10 months: Barfoot & Thompson
    The New Zealand Herald|14 hours ago
    The price of homes sold by Auckland’s largest real estate agency dropped by $47,000 from August to September but by $180,000 since last November. Barfoot & Thompson’s data out today showed the city’s median residential sale price fell from $1.

  13. Orlando, FL Housing Prices Crater 18% YOY As The Toxic Rot Of Subprime Mortgage Defaults Looms Over Florida Housing Market

    https://www.movoto.com/fl/32837/market-trends

    As one national broker conceded, “We’ve been scraping the bottom of the buyer barrel for 15 years or more. Why do you think mortgage defaults are 600% higher than long term trend?”

  14. Two big Oakland buildings that were transformed in recent years into cannabis cultivation centers have been seized by their lender in a foreclosure proceeding that leaves their future murky.

    The Cannery and The Tinnery, the two buildings that were seized by a finance firm, have been mired in a long-running dispute over the operation of massive diesel generators that were being used to power pot production inside the structures.

    In 2019, Canada-based Romspen California Mortgage provided $54.5 million in financing to different affiliates led by Greer, Alameda County property records show. In December 2021, Romspen, the lender, filed a notice of default against both of the East Oakland buildings.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/oakland-big-cannabis-buildings-mired-in-dispute-are-seized-by-lender/ar-AA12B0Ny

    Canada-based Romspen

    He he…

        1. Makes sense. The management team pays themselves huge salaries. When the money runs out they either raise more, or shut down the gig, and prepare for the next scam.

  15. Graeme Nichols, managing director of West End Mortgages, a mortgage and protection specialist based in Glasgow, told Scotland on Sunday: “We’re seeing the property market slowing down, with the ‘for sale’ signs staying up longer in most areas. Before, properties would be going under offer in two to three days. Now, it’s two to three weeks.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/homeandproperty/financial-markets-crisis-property-market-e2-80-98cooling-e2-80-99-but-experts-predict-no-major-price-falls-in-scotland/ar-AA12sFJk

    Isn’t it amazing how this minor respiratory illness sparked crazy housing behavior all over the planet? There’s going to have to be a new chapter in economics: you too can become a gazillionaire via a cough and sniffles!

    1. Isn’t it amazing how this minor respiratory illness

      But the guy on TeeVee said it was the Black Death!

  16. Lower.com cuts jobs amid national drop in mortgage lending
    The Business Journals|36 minutes ago
    Lower.com has joined mortgage lenders around the country that are shrinking staffs in the face of rising interest rates.

    LoanDepot has cut its funding capacity by $1 billion
    americanbanker|16 hours ago
    The company said it will prepay two securitization facilities and terminate financial arrangements including at least two involving U.S. Bank.

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