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A Wave Of New Supply Is Leaving Some Sellers With Little Choice But To Accept Less Than They Paid

A report from King 5 in Washington. “High mortgage rates are outpacing how much buyers can afford, which is leading to homes staying on the market for longer and sellers slashing prices. It’s something house flipper Diana Roger is seeing, too. Roger has been buying, remodeling and selling homes in the Seattle area for about eight years. She said her latest investment, a classic Pacific Northwest split level in Brier would have been sold within five days last year. Roger said within a year she went from getting multiple offers above the asking price before an open house to the Brier home being on the market for five weeks with no offers. ‘People are pickier and really looking for value for their money and waiting for a home that is maybe 9/10 or 10/10,’ explained Roger, who is considering taking the home off the market while hoping rates improve by spring.”

The American Press. “Amanda Cox, REL, SRES, CRS, RENE, ABR, Latter & Blum, put the current state of the Southwest Louisiana real estate industry in perspective. She described the last couple of years of the industry as riding in a car speeding down the highway at 120 miles per hour. ‘A home goes on the market, it’s shown multiple times in a matter of days, and sometimes the seller receives multiple offers in that brief period to choose from,’ she said. ‘Today, sellers are no longer solidly in the driver’s seat, a big change from the last few years. The market is neutral.'”

“‘Buyers now have a chance to think about their choices, make sure the numbers work for them and go into this major decision clear-minded,’ Cox said. ‘In months and years past, the frenzy of multiple offers raised everyone’s anxiety level to an unhealthy level. Appraisers are beginning to be questioned by lending institutions, so it is obvious to me that the underwriters are more risk-averse now than they have been for a very long time.'”

From KSL in Utah. “Housing market whiplash is setting in across the Beehive State as last year’s buying frenzy has given way to a slowdown and signs of a recession. The most recent report from the Utah Association of Realtors showed home sales in August were down nearly 24% compared to a year before. At the same time, the number of homes on the market jumped by 80%. St. George area realtor Blair Frei said the market shift has changed the dynamic for potential buyers who recently had no bargaining power.”

“‘Sellers were basically getting whatever they wanted,’ Frei said. ‘We saw offers as crazy as people offering to deliver cookies monthly and mow people’s lawns. It was crazy.’ Now, he says, it’s the builders who are starting to offer incentives. ‘We’ve had multiple builders reaching out to all of us realtors with some pretty cool incentives for buyers,’ Frei said. During one transaction, he helped a family get $12,000 of their closing costs paid. ‘We were able to go in with no other competition on a home that they loved in an area they loved and make an offer and get the sellers to cover all of their closing costs,’ Frei said.”

From Wired. “Opendoor is taking a pounding. Forty-two percent of the homes it sold in August made a loss, according to YipitData. In places like Phoenix, Arizona, where cookie-cutter houses have attracted so-called iBuyers en masse, the numbers are even worse. Here, three out of every four homes Opendoor sold in August lost money. The company blames its current struggles on ‘the most rapid change in residential real estate fundamentals in 40 years.’ It’s a change that’s hitting Opendoor and its competitors hard right now—and it could be coming for millions of homeowners next.”

“The early signs of torpor in the cookie-cutter houses Opendoor, Zillow, and their competitors make money on are likely to spread. ‘It’s supply and demand,’ says Mike DelPrete, an iBuying market analyst—and not just in Phoenix. With mortgage rates rising, buyers aren’t buying, and among the first properties to lose value are the identikit ones iBuyers rely on. And that leaves a slush pile of unwanted, expensive homes.”

The Daily Mail. “New York City’s real estate crisis may not just be limited to office buildings, as apartment sales fell by double digits in the third quarter. Miller Samuel CEO Jonathan Miller told CNBC that ‘the boom in Manhattan has been interrupted. The biggest declines come from some of the most expensive properties, with pre-war apartments along Park and Fifth Avenues, as well as Central Park West, going unsold for months, even years. Miller said, ‘Between the volatility in financial markets and rising rates, we’re seeing the higher end disappoint.'”

“It’s similar to the crisis in selling office buildings in the Big Apple, as those purchases have been hurt by working from home. The NBER study was done by NYU and Columbia researchers and their findings show that not only are many workers not coming back, but companies that are bringing employees back are also looking for higher-quality spaces. It suggests that New York City will be responsible for 10 percent of the nearly $456billion in value lost of offices across the United States.”

From Nerd Wallet. “Disgruntled Airbnb guests are taking to Twitter and TikTok to vent about everything from cleaning fees to misleading listings. But they aren’t the only ones with complaints: Airbnb hosts themselves have become increasingly disillusioned with the platform and its disrespectful guests. Emily Muskin Rathner, a digital marketing professional living in Cleveland, began renting her house on Airbnb in August 2021. She says that hosting has been a pleasant and profitable enterprise overall, but a few guests have caused major problems, including a family that rented the house this June.”

“‘They left the house a mess,’ she says. ‘There was human feces on our laundry. They sprayed Silly String all over the place. I don’t care about Silly String, but can you pick it up? It left stains, oddly.’ Rathner received reimbursement from Airbnb for most of her claims. But some damage, such as nail polish smeared on the bathroom tile, didn’t qualify for reimbursement because she wasn’t able to provid documentation for the cost of the tile. And then there was the smell. ‘It really, really stunk. The air conditioning had been left off for a week — in June.'”

KSWB in California. “For rental hosts looking to use their property as short-term rental in the city of San Diego can now apply for a license to offer stays of less than a month, although it’s not guaranteed for all who apply. Nancy Kramer has been renting her San Diego beach front property at Capri by the Sea out short term since 2002. Twenty years later, she says her business could reach a screeching halt. ‘I feel like all of a sudden they’re pulling the rug out from under me…Now I don’t even know if I’m going to be able to do it anymore in a few months,’ Kramer said.”

“Greg Ross works with Kramer and manages more than 80 properties throughout the city. ‘My owners are really really stressing out. I get calls every day, we’re helping them out with the application process, we’re finding a lot of property management companies are not helping their owners out,’ Ross said.”

The Monterey Herald in California. “In an attempt to generate more revenue for affordable housing and other aspirational city projects, a nontraditional funding source is up for the Pacific Grove City Council’s consideration: taxing empty homes. ‘I live in Pacific Grove, and there’s a lot of dark houses all the time,’ said Pacific Grove Council Member Jenny McAdams, who Is bringing the empty homes tax forward at Wednesday’s meeting. ‘When you have so many empty homes in your neighborhood, you lose a part of the community. Over time, we’re becoming a second, third, fourth house playground.'”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Real estate markets in Toronto and Vancouver fell in September, with sales and home prices down in both the cities. The home price index, which excludes sales of extremely expensive homes, fell for the sixth straight month in the Toronto region, down 1.2 per cent from August and 19.3 per cent from the market peak in March. The typical price in September was $1,110,700. Since the market peak in March, home prices in the Toronto region have fallen substantially, with homes in Peel down 18.7 per cent, in Durham down by 18.6 per cent and in the City of Toronto down by 19.2 per cent.”

“In the Vancouver area, the composite benchmark price for all residential properties in September was $1,155,300. This is up by 3.9 per cent compared with last September, but down 2.1 per cent from August and 8.5 per cent over the past six months. Prices have fallen over the past six months across the Vancouver region, with the largest declines in Maple Ridge – where the home price index is down 16.5 per cent – and Pitt Meadows, which is down 15 per cent. Prices in Greater Vancouver are down 8.5 per cent since March.”

Wales Online in the UK. “Soaring interest rates are seeing house sales fall through after panic hit the property market earlier this week, according to one Welsh estate agent. Property prices are expected to plummet as millions of existing owners try to sell up after no longer being able to afford their payments. ‘I have never seen it like this,’ said Ian Wyn-Jones, an estate agent in north Wales whose had 20 sales fall through since the Government’s mini-budget a week ago. ‘That’s 20 households who have had their life turned upside down in a matter of days.'”

“Jamie Lennox, of broker Dimora Mortgages, said one lender had this week down valued a property by £40,000 – equivalent to 12pc of the proposed sale price. He said: ‘We may see more in the weeks to come. Clients are also becoming more concerned about a looming recession and the impact of potentially buying a house at the peak of the market.'”

From Domain News in Australia. “Close to one in five properties in apartment-heavy neighbourhoods such as Ryde and Strathfield in Sydney and the Melbourne CBD and Stonnington are selling at a loss, new figures show.Nervous investors and first home buyers have been turning away from cookie-cutter high-rise towers and choosing boutique unit blocks where possible, mindful of the high-profile cracking Opal Tower and the desire for open space through the pandemic. A wave of new apartment supply in these areas in recent years is leaving some sellers with little choice but to accept less than what they paid.”

“Buyer’s advocate Zaki Ameer has noticed an oversupply of units in suburbs such as Homebush and Homebush West in the Strathfield LGA, as well as further west in Sydney. ‘There was quite a bit sold off the plan that is settling this year and there are valuation shortfalls on those units now compared to what people would have paid at the peak, because banks are pulling back on valuations.'”

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This Post Has 123 Comments

  1. ‘In months and years past, the frenzy of multiple offers raised everyone’s anxiety level to an unhealthy level. Appraisers are beginning to be questioned by lending institutions’

    Sound lending!

    1. “Appraisers are beginning to be questioned by lending institutions’

      Now that’s priceless right there. You got lenders and realtors pressuring the spineless appraiser crowd for a decade or more…. now lenders are disclaiming all complicity….. lenders are acting like Realtors now.

      Not gonna work this time. Defects Defects Defects. Wholesale defective appraisals and mortgage contracts.

  2. ‘It really, really stunk. The air conditioning had been left off for a week — in June’

    It’s not the AC Emily, it’s the sh$t.

    1. The humidity from Galveston, TX to Miami, FL can quickly grow mold in the evaporator, but it is easily cleaned with a foaming aerosol spray.

  3. ‘Roger said within a year she went from getting multiple offers above the asking price before an open house to the Brier home being on the market for five weeks with no offers. ‘People are pickier and really looking for value for their money and waiting for a home that is maybe 9/10 or 10/10,’ explained Roger, who is considering taking the home off the market while hoping rates improve by spring’

    For a while there, I was afraid you were going to give it away Diane. Hold yer ground.

  4. ‘We saw offers as crazy as people offering to deliver cookies monthly and mow people’s lawns. It was crazy’

    And we thought feeding squirrels was a bit too much.

  5. First they came for the Catholic moms, and because I was not a Catholic mom I did not speak up….

    Moment police ‘with no search warrant’ swooped on house of gender-critical Catholic mother and arrested her in front of her four children over ‘series of anonymous posts on internet chat board’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11282263/Moment-police-swoop-house-devout-catholic-mother-malicious-online-posts.html

    This is the moment a gender-critical Catholic mother was arrested in her home in front of her children and body searched after police swooped on her house over series of ‘malicious’ online posts.

    Caroline Farrow, a vicar’s wife and mother-of-five, shared a lengthy thread on Twitter detailing her experience with Surrey Police after two police officers reportedly ‘forced’ their way into her home to arrest her on Monday night.

    While in the middle of preparing a roast dinner for her priest husband Robin and five children on Sunday, two police officers are said to have demanded she join them for an interview under caution.

      1. NZ, Australia, and Canada are templates for what the globalists and their Democrat-Bolshevik Quislings want to impose on the USA.

      2. This is in the UK

        Brits do not have a Bill of Rights. No one does in the Anglosphere, other than the US. Notice how they lose their collective minds every time a judge in the US upholds the 2nd amendment.

  6. Did you know that the 2020 election was stolen?

    Joe Biden will never be the legitimately elected president of the United States, because the 2020 election was stolen.

    1. The New York Times is globalist scum media.

      New York Times — Talk of ‘Civil War,’ Ignited by Mar-a-Lago Search, Is Flaring Online (10/5/2022):

      “Soon after the F.B.I. searched Donald J. Trump’s home in Florida for classified documents, online researchers zeroed in on a worrying trend.

      Posts on Twitter that mentioned “civil war” had soared nearly 3,000 percent in just a few hours as Mr. Trump’s supporters blasted the action as a provocation. Similar spikes followed, including on Facebook, Reddit, Telegram, Parler, Gab and Truth Social, Mr. Trump’s social media platform. Mentions of the phrase more than doubled on radio programs and podcasts, as measured by Critical Mention, a media-tracking firm.

      More than a century and a half after the actual Civil War, the deadliest war in U.S. history, “civil war” references have become increasingly commonplace on the right. While in many cases the term is used only loosely — shorthand for the nation’s intensifying partisan divisions — observers note that the phrase, for some, is far more than a metaphor.

      Polling, social media studies and a rise in threats suggest that a growing number of Americans are anticipating, or even welcoming, the possibility of sustained political violence, researchers studying extremism say. What was once the subject of serious discussion only on the political periphery has migrated closer to the mainstream.”

      https://archive.ph/3lj4V

      If civil war is what it takes to exterminate Marxism from the United States, then that’s what it’s gonna take.

      There can be no negotiation with Marxists, they are an existential threat to all humanity.

      1. Talk of ‘Civil War,’

        The only “talk of Civil War” I see is always coming from leftist globalist sh!tbags. Gaslight much, motherf**kers?

  7. The Brandon regime’s Democrat-on-Arrival invaders are wasting no time when it comes to sacking their new conquest.

    ‘They need to be sent back to their home country’: Ron DeSantis tears into ‘illegal alien’ looters who should not be in the US ‘at all’ after they were arrested for ransacking homes devastated by Hurricane Ian

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11281455/Ron-DeSantis-tears-illegal-alien-looters-not-arrests.html

    Florida Governor Ron DeSantis revealed Tuesday that three of the four looting suspects arrested in Lee County were in the United States illegally.

    The Republican executive made the revelation during a news conference in Fort Myers on Tuesday as he gave an update about the response to Hurricane Ian.

    1. “When I say zero tolerance, zero tolerance means we will hunt you down, track you down, and you’re going to jail. If you’re lucky,” DeSantis warned.

      Then why were they released on $35k bonds especially if they’re here illegally. Now they’re at large in the community.

  8. ‘I feel like all of a sudden they’re pulling the rug out from under me…Now I don’t even know if I’m going to be able to do it anymore in a few months’

    ‘My owners are really really stressing out. I get calls every day’

    Red hotcakes and weather!

  9. ‘The biggest declines come from some of the most expensive properties, with pre-war apartments along Park and Fifth Avenues, as well as Central Park West, going unsold for months, even years’

    Wa?

    ‘It suggests that New York City will be responsible for 10 percent of the nearly $456billion in value lost of offices across the United States’

    Is that a lot?

  10. The Orwellian creepiness from the Brandon regime, its Deep State enforcers, and its globalist oligarch tech company moguls only gets worse from here.

    Social Media “Enemies List”: “The breadth of censorship is absolutely jaw dropping”

    https://thedaybreakdaily.com/social-media-enemies-list-the-breadth-of-censorship-is-absolutely-jaw-dropping/

    Charlie Kirk: While I was getting ready to speak at the great Calvary Chapel Chino Hills, Producer Andrew was emailing me and texting me about the story that came out on the terrific website, justthenews.com. And I couldn’t quite process it in time. And then I had a chance to read it and the weekend happened and I saw Sean Hannity did a segment on this with John Solomon. And essentially, it turns out new documents show that there is a censorship machine that exists targeting news sites and influencers that might express opinions that the government does not like.

    To help us understand this story, I have lots of questions about it because I’m on the list, I’m on the “enemies list,” is John Solomon from justthenews.com. And he has a terrific show on Real America’s Voice. So, as we wait for John, to kind of go through the story here, it says, “The private consortium that reported election ‘misinformation’ to tech platforms during the 2020 election season, in ‘consultation’ with federal agencies, targeted several news organizations in its dragnet.”

    2. I knew it was Jennifer Lopez! Enty over at Crazy Days & Nights refers to her as “A list everything in her mind.”

  12. Yellen the Felon has been an abject failure in her one and only official duty – to ensure the soundness of the dollar – but she’s been a brilliant success in her REAL job: presiding over the systematic looting and asset stripping of the middle and working classes, and facilitating the transfer of their wealth and property to the Fed’s oligarch and private equity accomplices.

    Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says ‘there is no truth’ to report she’s leaving agency after midterms

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/04/yellen-says-there-is-no-truth-to-report-shes-leaving-agency-after-midterms.html

    Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen denied Tuesday an unconfirmed report that President Joe Biden would replace her after the November midterm elections, saying she plans to stay on as head of the agency.

    Yellen, who spoke on a panel interview during the Treasury’s annual Freedman’s Bank Forum in Washington, curtly shut down speculation about her exit.

    “There is no truth to that,” Yellen told moderator and MSNBC host Jonathan Capehart.

    1. Maybe STOP means continue pedaling and put your hands in the air where he comes from.

      Nonetheless, I still nominate that dude for a spot on the Tour de Biden team with a spot on the “‘Watch me” page in the program.

    2. Pretty sure it’s illegal to ride a bike in a crosswalk. One of the first things I was taught when learning to ride a bike was that you had to get off and walk it across.

  14. ‘People are pickier and really looking for value for their money and waiting for a home that is maybe 9/10 or 10/10,’ explained Roger, who is considering taking the home off the market while hoping rates improve by spring.”

    You should totally do that, Roger. Suzanne’s research indicates a Spring Miracle Revival is baked in the cake. You just stick to yer guns and don’t give away that special listing.

  15. “It’s something house flipper Diana Roger is seeing, too. Roger has been buying, remodeling and selling homes in the Seattle area for about eight years.”

    Yer going to jail Diane….. yer going to jail.

    San Diego, CA Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY As The Fenders Flap And Wheels Fall Off San Diego Housing Market

    https://www.movoto.com/ca/92101/market-trends/

  16. ‘Today, sellers are no longer solidly in the driver’s seat, a big change from the last few years. The market is neutral.’”

    No, Amanda, the market is crashing. I realize you work for an industry of dissemblers, but anyone who can read the headlines can see right through your lies and spin.

  17. Appraisers are beginning to be questioned by lending institutions, so it is obvious to me that the underwriters are more risk-averse now than they have been for a very long time.’”

    It’s beginning to dawn on those lending institutions that their days are numbered.

  18. With mortgage rates rising, buyers aren’t buying, and among the first properties to lose value are the identikit ones iBuyers rely on. And that leaves a slush pile of unwanted, expensive homes.”

    Gosh, I fear that such a development could exert severe downward pressure on prices, making the iBuyer business model non-viable and costing investors and shareholders huge sums of money. This is my “deeply concerned” face.

  19. “‘They left the house a mess,’ she says. ‘There was human feces on our laundry. They sprayed Silly String all over the place. I don’t care about Silly String, but can you pick it up? It left stains, oddly.’

    Declining rentals from “guests” most likely to trash your house would be considered “discriminatory” and grounds for lawsuits. That puts any conscientious landlord in an untenable position.

    1. If they think 3.5% is high and “outsized”, they’re gonna love double digit interest rates.

  21. A reader sent these in:

    NZ central bank lifts the cash rate to 3.5% Up from 0.25% on this day last year. The cash rate there was last this high in 2015. This is a severe change that will continue to massively disrupt their housing market.

    https://twitter.com/DrCameronMurray/status/1577478403313537024

    JP Morgan is worried who will buy all the bonds… with Fed, China, and Japan selling… and the US Treasury running trillion dollar deficits… and bond yields still well below current rate of inflation…
    Who will buy all the bonds…?

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1577449288300470274

    It is not only the most aggressive Fed hiking cycle in 40 years. The current U.S. debt to gdp is also more than double the one from 1994 and even more than 3x the one from 1983. How much more can they hike rates from here before the system breaks ? 🔥

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1577508627669258242

    Office REITs just took out their March 2020 low (orange), when everyone was sent home, and the office was closed.

    https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1577512587914346496

    John Wake

    “From their May 2022 peak, home prices will need to plunge 40%. In other words, a $1 million home in mid-2022 will be a $600,000 home by 2026.

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1577436440778067968

    This week we are to believe that yes home prices are falling, but not as fast as 2008.
    https://fortune.com/2022/10/03/housing-market-wall-street-home-prices-predictions-moodys-goldman-sachs-morgan-stanley-fitch-ratings/

    This is the all-transaction (new and existing) home price index via Fred:
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=1098493&rn=345

    Fool me all the time, shame on me.

    https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1577311195912077312

    QE was a policy mistake because it enables financialization–which is inherently non-productive.

    https://twitter.com/Stimpyz1/status/1577314355648991232

    The Fed has pivoted only twice – 1975 & 1976 – with the Fed Funds rate below core PCE inflation. In both cases, unemployment was over 7.5%. Both pivots were short-lived.

    The last time the Fed pivoted with core PCE (currently 4.9%) more than 1.2% above the funds rate was never.

    https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1577401531921534997

  22. ‘Suddenly unwoke’: AOC mocked for not wanting migrants in her district
    Sky News Australia
    Oct 4, 2022 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been mocked online for being “suddenly unwoke” after the congresswoman said there was a “better solution” to New York City Mayor Eric Adam’s idea of housing illegal immigrants in her district.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85pFf0HogSE

    4:23.

        1. Art school reject living in Vienna flophouses before WWI broke out.

          The history of Germany in 1919-1920 is interesting, running street battles between communists and fascists in Munich.

    2. Next up… Immigrant Lives Matter

      If they matter so much, have them live it your house. Better yet, you pay the tab for their extended stay hotel room.

  23. October 2022 Local Market Update for East County Bay Area
    Oct 4, 2022 While the housing market continues to shift with rising mortgage rates, increased inventory and as we move into the second half of 2022, is it still a good time to buy or sell? With the state of the housing market quickly changing I can see how confusing it can be if you are a seller or buyer trying to decide if NOW is the right time to buy or sell. I am here to break down what’s happening in the real estate market here in East County so that you can make the best decision when it comes to probably one of your largest assets which of course is your home. Let’s take a look at what’s happening in Brentwood CA 94513. At the time of this recording, there are 167 (one hundred sixty seven) active listings, 69 (sixty nine) homes pending, and 41 (forty one) homes that were sold in the last 23 days. Homes sold for an average of $776,800 (seven hundred seventy six thousand and eight hundred) and were on the market an average 38 days. In Oakley CA 94561, we have (seventy eight) 78 active homes on the market with 47(forty seven) pending and 29 (twenty nine) homes sold so far in September. The average sale price was $653,195 (six hundred and fifty three thousand one hundred ninety five) after spending 27 (twenty seven) days on the market. So you can see, with the changing market, it is no surprise to us that homes are staying on the market longer. With the constant shifts, you need an experienced agent to help guide you through your next moves in real estate. Connect with my team today to get more information and we can strategize about what to do with your home. And again, If you want to see a series of current videos breaking down what’s happening in the real estate market for buyers and sellers, go to (INSERT LINK I’m [Name, Brokerage & Slogan] Thanks for watching.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMAPy6fTwio

    2 minutes. Check out where she has her phone clipped to.

      1. I just moved and found a rental. It was hard to find a rental. Lots of landlords were not interested in renting — just collecting a $100 application fee. Renting alone made me hate realtors. If I ever buy I’m considering hiring a lawyer for the paperwork and not using a realtor.

        That and rental prices are insanely high right now.

        Still, I’d rather a 12 month lease around my neck than a 30 year mortgage albatross.

        1. The only times I’ve felt good about renting were due to avoiding repair/maintenance bills. It can be dangerous due to landlords’ slummy practices (PM says LL’s cheap.)
          There have been substantial AC repairs in all places, two where it died completely ($9-10K?). Present rental had an electrical outlet spark resulting in a nice size fire so electrical work, wall repair, rug replacement, repaint. Our actions prevented the roof from becoming involved (this👌🏻 close.)
          Asbestos abatement when part of the garage ceiling fell (no idea on cost, lots of cleaning, sealing off, venting equipment, days and days of work).
          $600 to clear desert scrub in backyard (we didn’t even want that done, made the dust even worse).
          Many recent plumbing problems, locks and other stuff falling apart from old age. This place still has estimates ≧$535K. Places around us, though in far better shape, have come down from $700k list to $500K-600K in the past few months.
          My favorite was 2009-2010, not paying rent for a year bc the LL said not to (shocked and amazed, never understood why, not a particularly nice guy.)
          I’m pushing to move out of LV. No clue where. Our lease is up at the end of 2023.

  25. We’ve been reading some scary stories about falling home prices in the US, but these are interlaced with REIC assurances that it won’t be as bad this time as in the 2007-2009 Great Recession.

    Really?

    1. The Wall Street Journal
      Finance Housing
      Wall Street: U.S. housing market to see the second-biggest home price decline since the Great Depression
      There’s a new consensus on Wall Street: We’re headed for a historically sharp home price drop.
      BY Lance Lambert
      October 03, 2022 5:37 AM EDT

      National home price declines are uncommon, but it does occur on occasion. It happened in the early 1980s, then again in the early 1990s, and most notably in the years following the 2008 housing crash. That said, sharp home price declines are incredibly rare: Only the Great Depression and the Great Recession saw nationwide home prices fall in the double-digits range.

      That history—or lack of history—is why recent outlooks published by Wall Street titans are raising eyebrows. Not only is there a building consensus on Wall Street that we’ve entered into a period of falling home prices, but there’s also a consensus it will be the second-sharpest home price decline since the Great Depression.
      …

      1. “second-biggest home price decline”

        How do Wall Street firms rank these before they have even started?

        Last time Wall Street knew nothing until it came to light many of the world’s largest investment banks were on the hook for the subprime mortgage lending industry collapse.

        So it makes sense that they would want to produce lowball estimates of the potential size of housing price declines.

      2. “…there’s also a consensus it will be the second-sharpest home price decline…”

        You know what I think about expert consensuses? It sux to be collectively wrong, but it’s much better than being individually wrong.

      3. “National home price declines are uncommon, but it does occur on occasion. It happened in the early 1980s, then again in the early 1990s, and most notably in the years following the 2008 housing crash.”

        How about that. During the last bubble they were screeching that it had never happened and therefore couldn’t.

  26. Compared to 4 months ago in my hood inventory and price reduced is way up and pending is never ending.

  28. “Buyers now have a chance to think about their choices, make sure the numbers work for them and go into this major decision clear-minded…”

    “Appraisers are beginning to be questioned by lending institutions…”

    Lots of sound financial decisions happening the last couple of years.

    1. Project Syndicate
      Opinion: Stock markets will drop another 40% as a severe stagflationary debt crisis hits an overleveraged global economy
      Last Updated: Oct. 4, 2022 at 8:52 a.m. ET
      First Published: Oct. 3, 2022 at 2:58 p.m. ET
      By Nouriel Roubini

      The debt crisis is here, Nouriel Roubini says. Expect central banks to wimp out in their fight against inflation as financial distress deepens
      …
      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-markets-will-drop-another-40-as-a-severe-stagflationary-debt-crisis-hits-an-overleveraged-global-economy-11664823521

    1. As per the photo “Demonstrator Gan Golan of Los Angeles at Occupy DC activities in Washington, D.C.”

      Masters of Degrees in Oppressionomics should be shackled by debt so get a real job and pay it off.

  32. Economy smells like 2008 – 2009 in Region IV to me.

    Loads of work from recent years finishing up but not much coming up, phone calls looking for work from people who had been naming their price over the past several years. Building inventory of shacks for sale and people grumbling about not wanting to open their brokerage account statements.

    If nothing else it rhymes.

    1. Region VIII

      The last time I scrolled through Indeed looking at sparky jobs in Denver there was over 20 pages.

        1. I posted some months ago that I worked on a smoke damage cleanup job in Superior / Louisville.

          I’m not driving that far north to do resi.

          Commercial only. And fortunately all of it in Cherry Creek / Glendale or DTC and the south suburbs.

    2. Still ridiculously busy out west. I’m saving everything I earn with the exception of the normal monthly bills. Zero debt. I learned my lesson back in 2008.

  34. “a nontraditional funding source is up for the Pacific Grove City Council’s consideration: taxing empty homes.”

    2022- ban STRs
    2023- tax empty homes
    2024- force owners to house homeless drug addicts
    2025- take your second home away
    2026- take your first home away

      1. It crosses my mind that vacation homes are likely to have been purchased more recently than the average resident homeowner’s shanty, meaning that they already pay far more property tax than their neighbors, because of Prop 13.

  35. Just saw this in the Colorado Sun:

    A new poll indicates Lauren Boebert’s Democratic challenger has a shot. Here’s what the rest of the data says.

    The Keating Research survey conducted on behalf of Adam Frisch showed him trailing Boebert by just 2 percentage points in the Republican-leaning 3rd Congressional District

    I think they are getting ready to stuff some ballot boxes and steal her seat.

    1. I think they’re just trying to fund raise for other/future races. If she loses in a red district then we’re all screwed.

    2. I was in her district in Southern Colorado a few weeks ago and didn’t see a single yard sign for her opponent.

      “This is Boebert Country” signs everywhere.

      Don’t believe the Front Range scum media.

  36. Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul Calls on National Guard over 0.3% of Biden’s Border Crisis Arriving in NYC

    JOHN BINDER
    4 Oct 2022

    Now, as more than 16,000 border crossers and illegal aliens have been bused to New York City from Texas and have passed through the city’s homeless shelter system, Hochul is calling on about 100 National Guard reservists to help with a new tent city where arrivals will be housed.

    Migrants bused to New York City, thus far, account for just 0.32 percent of the estimated five million border crossers and illegal aliens who have crossed the southern border since Biden took office in late January 2021.

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/10/04/report-democrat-gov-kathy-hochul-national-guard/

        1. That’s what is so ridiculous about this whole thing. There are lots of illegals in NYC, all the big cities. These people aren’t crossing the river to work in south Texas. As soon as they get to Houston, it’s off on a bus to somewhere. NYC just wants the illegals they can handle and work fer cheap. Why not ship them up there in one go?

          You can have yer safety net, or you can have open borders, but you can’t have both.

    1. Hey, jeff 😁
      Saw that one. Nice if he’s sincere. There are a few videos, same sentiment, going around. They make me uncomfortable, tragic cynic that I’ve become. Some people do merit tremendous congratulations, as they suffered greatly. I’m leery of bandwagons. Next thing we’ll have our own “Proudly Unvaxxed” flag, maybe some lapel pins.
      Some people have an opportunity to recoup their losses:
      https://files.catbox.moe/4yzsb1.jpg

        1. Hey jeff, it’s fine, just more cynical than ever before about peoples’ motivations. I only suffered inconvenience/aggravation from the mandates and wasn’t forced to do anything, didn’t even get Covid. The arguments I had with my daughter about the vax did push things over the edge. How’s your daughter feeling?
          Comments under premium priced sperm articles made me laugh, e.g. “I see early retirement!”

          1. My daughter is fine this week thanks for asking.

            I still hold out hope your relationship with your kid chills out soon.

  42. Ukraine’s intelligence service, which uploads intercepts of Russian soldiers’ calls to their families back home despairing at the way the war is going, confirmed that approximately 1/3 of Russian troops deployed in Ukraine have phoned home to say that realtors are liars.

  43. I’m seeing massive inventory builds and houses just rotting away on the mls, with chintzy price cuts, ie. $995,000 to $990,000. Oh yeah, that’s gonna do it. These are $300,000 houses at best.

    Also seeing delusional rental prices. What used to get you a decent rental right in San Francisco – one of the most expensive rental markets in the country – will now get you a single wide trailer in the desert of Nevada.

  44. “The President will continue to direct SPR releases as appropriate to protect American consumers and promote energy security,” the statement read.

    https://www.pond5.com/sound-effects/item/153614027-sink-drain-gurgle-01

    Joe Biden Complains OPEC+ Oil Cuts Are ‘Shortsighted’ and Releases More Strategic Oil Reserves

    CHARLIE SPIERING5
    Oct 2022

    “The President is disappointed by the shortsighted decision by OPEC+ to cut production quotas while the global economy is dealing with the continued negative impact of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine,” read a statement from the White House on Wednesday after OPEC+ announced their decision to cut production by 2 million barrels per day.

    The White House press secretary was more direct, accusing OPEC+ of trying to help Russia.

    “It’s clear that OPEC+ is aligning with Russia with today’s announcement,” she told reporters aboard Air Force One.

    The White House said that Biden would release another 10 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in November to keep prices low.

    “The President will continue to direct SPR releases as appropriate to protect American consumers and promote energy security,” the statement read.

    1. The White House press secretary was more direct, accusing OPEC+ of trying to help Russia.

      But I thought we wore the white hats and were the good guys! Why are they helping Russia?

      It couldn’t be because we are trying to shove our “culture” down everyone else’s throats and they are getting sick of it?

    1. Hi 46&2,
      Thank you for posting this graph. I moved to Reno (yeah, it’s a sh$thole) Easter 2020. The realestate and rental prices have been going thru the roof bcuz of incoming Cali cockroaches, of which I am one. In my estimation, prices should drop another 30 – 40 percent. But it’ll take years not months to get there.
      Cannot wait to flee for the mid-West after weathering the upcoming crash/recession/depression/zombie apocalypse.
      Cheers, –Geezer

    2. It will look much more dramatic looking back a couple of years from now, and on a longer time scale than just a few months.

      This is the big one, and it’s only just beginning, with very little MSM recognition.

  47. I’ve put in two offers for houses in Kennewick, WA in the last week. The first one, I offered 565K for a 587 asking price, and lost out because of two full price offers. The second, just happened yesterday, I offered 590, with an escalation clause to 600K for a 597K asking price and was outbid with an offer over 600K. Over full price.
    So what you’re selling ain’t reality where I’m at.

    1. “So what you’re selling ain’t reality where I’m at.”

      The Tri-cities are absorbing the people fleeing the west side cities from Portland up to Seattle. My daughter up in Bellingham is feeling the same effects as you. Hence, $500k plus for a used house looks cheap compared to nearly $850k.

  48. EV Hummer Takes FOUR DAYS for Full Charge, Leaves Man STRANDED in Traffic with Less than 250 Miles on Odometer

    by Adan Salazar
    October 5th 2022

    GMC’s EV Hummers take several days to reach a full charge with provided equipment and may leave you stranded in traffic.

    That’s according to a couple of YouTube automotive reviewers who’ve tested the vehicle and experienced disastrous results.

    I Bought a $115,000 GMC Hummer EV and It IMMEDIATELY Left Me Stranded!

    Oct 4, 2022

    https://youtu.be/uIXfp7pVFV4

    “Hey guys, I’m very unhappy. I’m in a brand new Hummer in traffic and the truck has taken a complete dump and it will not go into gear and it won’t go out of gear and I’ve tried a restart I can’t open the trunk because it doesn’t work,” one man stated as he experienced the inconvenient issue.

    “I’m pretty pissed off right now and I’m pretty nervous about, you know, the traffic…that this truck has left me in.”

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/ev-hummer-takes-four-days-for-full-charge-leaves-man-stranded-in-traffic-with-less-than-250-miles-on-odometer/

    1. The Financial Times
      Markets Briefing Equities
      Stocks turn lower as investors assess policy outlook
      Dollar continues its ascent and pound slides again
      A trader at the Frankfurt stock exchange
      Investors have been scrutinising economic reports and data releases for clues about how much further central banks will raise interest rates
      Harriet Clarfelt in London
      33 minutes ago

      European shares and US stock futures turned lower on Thursday, extending their declines as sentiment faltered following an upbeat start to the new month.

      The Stoxx 600 slipped 0.2 per cent, reversing earlier gains, after the regional European gauge closed 1 per cent lower on Wednesday. Contracts tracking Wall Street’s S&P 500 fell 0.8 per cent after the broad index ended the previous session down 0.2 per cent, in a decline that put the brakes on the strongest two-day advance for US equities in more than two years.

      Equities have sold off broadly this year, with last week capping the longest streak of quarterly losses since the 2008 financial crisis. As the US Federal Reserve and other central banks twist the screws on monetary policy to curb inflation, the prospect of ever higher borrowing costs has hit companies’ valuations.
      …

    3. Why ‘capitulation’ won’t end the bear market this time around
      It is unlikely there will be a mass investor exodus from stocks to the now not-so-safe havens of bonds, gold and cash
      The peak-to-trough drop in stocks so far is 25 per cent, which is considered a minor bear market. Alamy
      Ken Fisher
      Oct 04, 2022

      How much more will global stocks fall? As world stocks purge June’s lows, that question is vexing investors worldwide.

      Pundits overwhelmingly envision much more downside until we hit “capitulation” — a famous phrase meaning cascading panic selling.

      Yes, capitulation is the most common end to bear markets. But not always. One big factor makes that ending unlikely now. Let me explain why.

      The capitulation thesis implies investors aren’t fearful enough.

      Usually, bear market bottoms terminate with violent selling that relentlessly yanks money from stocks in favour of “safe havens” such as bonds, gold and cash.

      Stock fund outflows surge as demoralised investors’ last hopes vanish — the moment of capitulation.

      That is the typical process, although capitulation is only ever clear in hindsight. And, yes, we haven’t seen that this year — yet. After all, the peak-to-trough drop in stocks so far is 26 per cent, which is considered a minor bear market.

      Despite many sentiment surveys, including the American Association of Individual Investors Bull/Bear study, and global fund manager surveys hitting extreme lows lately, fund outflows have been muted.

      By the end of September, US investors had pulled $29.4 billion from stock funds. Sounds high? Consider: the week of March 27, 2020, as stocks hit their Covid-19 lockdown low, US investors dumped $41.8bn in stock funds. Pessimists conclude panic selling awaits us.

      But rote reliance on historical norms is always a mistake. Average isn’t always. History is very useful in analysing a range of probabilities, but it isn’t a road map or destiny. It doesn’t show that if A happens, then B always follows.
      …
      https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/money/2022/10/04/why-capitulation-wont-end-the-bear-market-this-time-around/

      1. Whistling while strolling past the graveyard won’t prevent you from eventually landing in a grave.

      2. The is no recession or falling inflation expectations ahead in Ken’s future outlook. Hence bonds and stocks look like equally poor investment choices ahead.

    4. Project Syndicate
      Opinion: Stock markets will drop another 40% as a severe stagflationary debt crisis hits an overleveraged global economy
      Last Updated: Oct. 4, 2022 at 8:52 a.m. ET
      First Published: Oct. 3, 2022 at 2:58 p.m. ET
      By Nouriel Roubini
      The debt crisis is here, Nouriel Roubini says. Expect central banks to wimp out in their fight against inflation as financial distress deepens
      …
      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-markets-will-drop-another-40-as-a-severe-stagflationary-debt-crisis-hits-an-overleveraged-global-economy-11664823521

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