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Death By 1,000 Slashes

A report from Deseret News on Idaho. “‘The sky is not falling,’ said TJ Pierce, a real estate agent in Boise. ‘Everybody knew it wasn’t going to last. It’s just a matter of how long.’ Hop over to a more rural county — like the much smaller Adams County, located three hours north of Boise — and you’ll see some of these markets, with much smaller inventories, posted year-over-year price declines. For example, Adams County’s median sales price of single-family homes fell -37.7% year-over-year in August to $357,500, down from $574,500 in August of 2021.”

From The Gazette. “The Colorado Springs-area housing market had another month of declining home sales and increased inventory — evidence of buyers’ reluctance to purchase homes. The median price of homes sold in September dipped slightly from last month to $460,000, making September the third straight month of falling prices. Despite elevated interest rates, Dean Weissman, a principal with The Platinum Group Realtors, said buyers have ample opportunity to find the right home as prices slip down.”

“‘We are seeing list prices overall kind of settle down just a tad,’ Weissman said. ‘So (with) the optimistic list prices that we were seeing — we’re actually seeing a lot more price reduction. What we seem to have lost is kind of the fluff money. … People are not willing to overpay but we’re still seeing good, clean, well-priced properties — we’re still seeing multiple offers in those situations,’ Weissman said.”

The Tampa Bay Times in Florida. “The last time a major hurricane made landfall on Tampa Bay was in 1921. Tampa historian Rodney Kite-Powell said Tampa’s business leaders were quick to say the storm was just a speed bump. It wasn’t until a hurricane slammed into Miami in 1926 that people started to realize the prohibitively high cost of investing in Florida. At the time, residents were already experiencing supply chain issues from a ship crash in the Biscayne Bay. The storm sped up the bust already underway, Kite-Powell said.”

“‘There were those who were already kind of concerned about the unsustainability of the land boom,’ Kite-Powell said. ‘Just like we’re seeing now with booms and busts. And so those naysayers that already existed were beginning to be proven right a little bit.'”

From Mansion Global on New York. “Like many other U.S. real estate markets, 2022 has been a year of normalization for the Manhattan real estate market. ‘There were only 2,598 listings that reduced prices in the third quarter, down from 4,312 in the second quarter but up from the 2,340 in the first quarter,’ Garrett Derderian, director of market intelligence at SERHANT, said in the report. ‘Fewer reductions signal sellers are capitulating to current conditions and are pricing appropriately.'”

“‘This quarter marked a return to pre-Covid norms rather than the record-highs of 2021 and early 2022 before interest rates rose,’ Stephen Kliegerman, president of Brown Harris Stevens Development Marketing, said in the report. ‘In Manhattan in particular, one of the unique market challenges is that there is a broad disconnect between the average price for actively marketed units in the borough and the average contract signed price.'”

The Houston Chronicle in Texas. “When Nathan and Hailey Wright wanted to sell their house and move to a larger one, they knew they had to act fast. It was May and the housing market appeared at its peak as mortgage rates rose. They put their 2,000-square foot townhome in East Downtown on the market and within a few days had it under contract for 10 percent above asking price. But then the buyer backed out. By the time they put the house back on the market in June, mortgage rates had jumped by about half a percentage point and home prices were reaching record-highs. Suddenly, offers dried up.”

“‘We saw firsthand the market just flipped upside down in a matter of weeks,’ recalled Nathan Wright, a construction management professional in his early 30s. ‘We went from having six offers within a few days to having just two showings a week for several weeks in a row.’ They ended up selling the house in early August for about 5 percent under asking price, he said.”

“The Wrights plan to pick up their home search again next year, when their lease expires. ‘Looking at homes in the Pearland area, you can see the houses not only are sitting on the market longer, they’re getting price reduction,’ Wright said.”

From 30 Action News. “QuoteWizard Senior Analyst Nick VinZant says California has been the hardest hit state. Between June and August, the average price of a house in the Golden State dropped by $12,205. ‘That is a significant change considering that it was just going up and up and up and up,’ he said. ‘Some places, 30-50% in two years.’ Those types of increases were seen here in the Central Valley and at this point, housing prices haven’t seen any significant drops.”

“Now, sellers are having to drop prices in a soft market. ‘If there’s a home on the market for 30-40 days and it has not sold, the market is telling you that that’s not the price anymore,’ says Prosperity Home Loans Mortgage Consultant Scott Reba. ‘It might have been a year ago but today, the market is correcting you.’ The markets where housing prices fell the most between June and August were San Jose, where homes dropped by $93,000 and San Francisco, which saw a $42,000 price decrease.”

The Bakersfield Californian. “Appraiser Gary Crabtree said he’s less optimistic for September’s still unfinished tally, considering how rising interest rates are limiting households’ purchasing power. ‘I expect September’s report will begin to show the data to support that we are entering a protracted real estate recession,’ he wrote. ‘Lenders have stopped lending or increased their rates to prohibitive levels.'”

From Realtor.com. “The U.S. Federal Reserve has completely upended the housing market, taking it from turbocharged to rapid deceleration. Home prices in many markets have even begun falling from their peaks. Now, the question is how far they will drop—and what fissures will be opening elsewhere in the economy to propel these changes. ‘The Fed is determined to cool inflation, and they’re willing to throw housing under the bus to do so,’ says Devyn Bachman, senior vice president of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting. ‘When you raise [mortgage] rates to the point they’re at today, it breaks the back of housing.'”

“‘There’s going to be a coast-to-coast downturn in the housing market. It’s going to be brutal,’ says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. ‘No part of the market is immune.'”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “The real estate market in Toronto and surrounding areas is heading into October in a state of calm, but buyers and sellers appear to have some angst about the weeks to come. Ira Jelinek, real estate agent with Harvey Kalles Real Estate Ltd., is seeing an increasing number of ‘opportunistic’ buyers emerge after prices fell from their February peak. Mr. Jelinek describes the opportunistic buyers as those who are firm with their offer but less aggressive than the extreme low ballers.”

“On a property with an asking price of $1.5-million, for example, an opportunistic buyer might offer $1.275-million. When Mr. Jelinek says he’ll take the offer to the seller, the buyer emphasizes that he or she is not willing to negotiate and that the offer is firm. Listing agents often snub an unacceptable offer with a dismissive, ‘I don’t think this property is for them.'”

“When the time comes to set an asking price, Mr. Jelinek shows sellers recent sale prices for comparable properties, he says. In a declining market, they should not expect to exceed those recent benchmarks. Unrealistic sellers, however, face the risk of the property becoming stale if they go through a series of reductions, he points out. ‘It can sometimes lead to death by 1,000 slashes. It’s not fun to go down that path,’ Mr. Jelinek says. In an unforgiving market, by the time the sellers realize they’re not getting the $1.5-million they were aiming for, they may find the $1.3-million they could have received has slipped to $1.2-million, he points out.”

“Tanya Rocca, agent with Royal LePage Burloak Real Estate Services, says an increase in inventory is giving buyers more selection in the Burlington, Ont., area, but many are still hesitant. Ms. Rocca says many potential sellers have a negative mindset when they hear that prices have dropped between 25 and 30 per cent over the past six months. But the market had an unsustainable run-up with a gain of about 60 per cent in some areas over the past couple of years. Many sellers are accepting that giving up some of the gain isn’t so bad given the longer-term appreciation, she says. ‘They’re calling because they want to talk. They want to understand what’s going on,’ she says.”

Maple Ridge News in Canada. “Sales and prices continue to drop in the real estate market in Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, which is part of a much wider trend. Houses in Maple Ridge are down 17 per cent to $1.23 million, and in Pitt Meadows they are down 19 per cent to $1.24 million. Townhouses are also down to $751,000 in Maple Ridge, a drop of 17 per cent, while Pitt Meadows’ townhomes are at $819,000 for a drop of 11 per cent. Apartments have fared better, down six per cent in Maple Ridge to $536,000, and down 6.6 per cent to $604,000 in Pitt Meadows.”

From Home Front in the UK. “Can someone please come and collect Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng from aisle five? There’s a terrible spillage: they’ve knocked over the economy and it’s a total mess. The housing market looks like it might need mopping up soon, too. A few weeks ago, I spoke with Neal Hudson for this newsletter, and he said, ‘this is getting scary.’ Yesterday we spoke on the phone, and he said: ‘I had absolutely no sense that this was going to be as scary as it is now.'”

“‘It might not be quite as bad as some of the financial metrics are suggesting today,’ he added. ‘But even so this is going to have a lasting impact on the economy and the housing market. If interest rates go much, much higher then that drastically increases the risk of a house price crash. We’re talking in terms of tens of per cents rather than single digit falls.'”

“‘If mortgage rates, let alone the Bank of England base rate, go to 6 per cent, then that would be incredibly difficult for the housing market,’ Hudson added. The key pinch point is this: 6 per cent mortgage rates may not sound as high as the 16 per cent plus highs of the 1980s but house prices have hit historic highs since the pandemic which means that people borrow more now. ‘Although we’ve got more people on fixed-rate mortgages, there are an awful lot of people who need to refix in coming months and years so, if interest rates do stay this high, it’s going to have a pretty drastic impact on the housing market and also on the economy,’ Hudson concluded.”

From Bloomberg. “New Zealand house prices suffered one of their biggest quarterly drops on record in the three months through September, and the worst may not be over. That’s according to CoreLogic New Zealand, which said the 4.1% quarterly decline is second only to a 4.4% drop in the wake of the global financial crisis 14 years ago. Prices fell for a sixth consecutive month.”

Western Australia Today. “More than half of properties in the City of Perth are selling at a loss, making the area the least profitable in the country, new figures reveal. As the nation’s real estate market moves into the early stages of a downswing, WA councils with a high proportion of apartments recorded the biggest losses for properties sold in the June quarter, according to CoreLogic’s Pain and Gain Report. More than 55 per cent of properties sold in the City of Perth were sold at a loss, with sellers losing on average $66,250 after holding on to the dwelling for 10.3 years. In Subiaco, 28.7 per cent of properties were sold at a loss of around $45,000.”

“Strategic Property Group managing director Trent Fleskens said many who bought during the mining boom would be selling at a loss if they put their property on the market today. ‘Not every investment decision is going to be a good decision,’ he said. ‘It’s more than likely that the people who are choosing to sell at a loss are people who are selling apartments, offloading them because they see them as an inferior investment product going forward. They’re either selling them because they have something better to invest in, or they’re just worn out and tired of having made a loss, they’ve gotten close enough with the value that it’s acceptable for them to cash out and cut their losses.'”

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This Post Has 137 Comments

  1. ‘Everybody knew it wasn’t going to last’

    Well that was quick.

    ‘Adams County’s median sales price of single-family homes fell -37.7% year-over-year in August to $357,500, down from $574,500 in August of 2021’

    Good thing everybody put 40% down!

    1. An absolute bloodletting. I’m sure if one wanted to check out some Airbnbs in Adams County, they’d find plenty of empty shacks looking for some sucker to pay $200+ per night.

      1. There’s some really nice vacation homes for $200 a night in Nov. homes 2x the size of my home and really nice. Not sure why you’d go to Idaho in November but $200 a night is peanuts if you got stuff to do there.

    2. No matter how much they hype it up, at the end of the day it’s just Idaho. Not much heavy industry, few white-collar jobs, no major cities, bad weather. Absolutely no fundamental reason for expensive housing. We’re just seeing price discovery.

      1. It quietly went from down X% since the spring cray cray, to down bigly YOY. How much is Adams County down from March?

  2. ‘So (with) the optimistic list prices that we were seeing — we’re actually seeing a lot more price reduction. What we seem to have lost is kind of the fluff money’

    Is that the money they can afford to lose Dean?

    1. “…fluff money…”

      fluff money = Yellen bucks.

      Does the Fed get some sort of noble prize for decimating the economy?

    2. fluff money = OPM other people’s money. When you can borrow at 0.1%, why wouldn’t you? I”m thinking a lot of these are going back to the other people pretty quickly as jingle mail becomes a thing again.

    3. “Is that the money they can afford to lose Dean?”

      I think he’s referring to DonkeyDollars…. they’re of equivalent value to regular dollars but they’re lent to Debt Donkeys and other barnyard types who excel at DonkeyMath.

      Bellingham, MA Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As New England Housing Market Rolls Over

      https://www.movoto.com/bellingham-ma/market-trends/

  3. ‘If there’s a home on the market for 30-40 days and it has not sold, the market is telling you that that’s not the price anymore…It might have been a year ago but today, the market is correcting you’

    Wait a minute Scott. Larry said 6 months is balanced. Are you saying he’s a lion?

  4. ‘The Fed is determined to cool inflation, and they’re willing to throw housing under the bus to do so,’ says Devyn Bachman, senior vice president of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting. ‘When you raise [mortgage] rates to the point they’re at today, it breaks the back of housing.’

    Even UHS dot com is jumping on the neck of shack gamblers? Sacré bleu!

    ‘There’s going to be a coast-to-coast downturn in the housing market. It’s going to be brutal…No part of the market is immune’

    Et tu Ho Chi Zandi?

    2. “‘There’s going to be a coast-to-coast downturn in the housing market. It’s going to be brutal…No part of the market is immune’”

      What? Where are the location, location crowd?

      1. What? Where are the location, location crowd
        One guy that’s part of this Location location crowd is in Aiken/Augusta. We will see if he is correct, which I doubt. I like my chances better.

    1. Geez, the side profile of that Realtwhore looks just like my ex when she had bangs for a while. It wasn’t one of her best haircuts.

      1. A professional woman’s hair should never touch her shoulders. If it’s long then put it up. Just my humble opinion. 🙂

  7. For example, Adams County’s median sales price of single-family homes fell -37.7% year-over-year in August to $357,500, down from $574,500 in August of 2021.”

    Is that a lot?

  8. ‘So (with) the optimistic list prices that we were seeing — we’re actually seeing a lot more price reduction.

    The delusion is strong among the greedheads of CoS, who still think they’re entitled to get peak-of-the-market prices.

  9. ‘More than 55 per cent of properties sold in the City of Perth were sold at a loss, with sellers losing on average $66,250 after holding on to the dwelling for 10.3 years’

    10 years? That’s two bubble periods gone poof!

    ‘The key pinch point is this: 6 per cent mortgage rates may not sound as high as the 16 per cent plus highs of the 1980s but house prices have hit historic highs since the pandemic which means that people borrow more now’

    Oh that!

    1. 10 years? That’s two bubble periods gone poof!

      We need to go back to 2012 prices at the minimum, nominally, to reach any semblance of affordability.

      1. And 2012 prices stayed 2012 prices for a New York minute too. In my area it was a 3 month window in the early spring when prices bottomed out but by summer it was up sharply.

  10. People are not willing to overpay but we’re still seeing good, clean, well-priced properties — we’re still seeing multiple offers in those situations,’ Weissman said.”

    Realtors are liars.

  11. “QuoteWizard Senior Analyst Nick VinZant says California has been the hardest hit state. Between June and August, the average price of a house in the Golden State dropped by $12,205.

    If you like your Communism, you can keep your Communism.

  12. The markets where housing prices fell the most between June and August were San Jose, where homes dropped by $93,000 and San Francisco, which saw a $42,000 price decrease.”

    Consider it a tax on libtard stupidity.

  13. “The U.S. Federal Reserve has completely upended the housing market, taking it from turbocharged to rapid deceleration. Home prices in many markets have even begun falling from their peaks. Now, the question is how far they will drop—and what fissures will be opening elsewhere in the economy to propel these changes.

    The Fed’s engineered boom/bust cycles are the most efficacious means of looting and asset-stripping the middle class, and transferring its wealth and property to the Fed’s private equity and vulture fund accomplices.

  14. Follow up from last night’s video thread.

    “When I was in elementary school, I’m pretty sure that someone who brought a drag queen to lap dance would have gone straight to prison.”

    Who decided this is acceptable?

    Why is this tolerated?

    We know who is promoting this, the usual Marxist globalists (these people have names, btw).

    When you buy a house, your property taxes are paying to promote this in the public schools, whether you like it or not.

    1. “When I was in elementary school, I’m pretty sure that someone who brought a drag queen to lap dance would have gone straight to prison.”

      I’m older than you because I’m pretty sure someone who brought a drag queen to lap dance at my elementary school would have gone straight to the hospital along with the drag queen.

      It was the 60s and many of our fathers had been to places like Normandy, Iwo Jima and the Ardennes Forrest.

      1. Quote is from our esteemed blog host. My father died in 2019, honorable discharge United States Navy (served after WWII), and he wouldn’t have put up with any of this either.

  18. Video: ‘Only Pipeline Attack Explanation Allowed Is The One The Regime Wants You To Believe’

    by Steve Watson
    October 6th 2022, 5:51 am

    Tucker Carlson warned Wednesday that the fact anyone who even suggests that The U.S. and its allies had anything to do with the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage is being labelled as a ‘Russian propagandist’ is a sure sign that we no longer live in a democratic society.

    Cued up at 1:12 – 6:30 which gets to the heart of it but 13:38 – 15:48 is priceless.

    Tucker Carlson: Asking obvious questions is forbidden

    https://youtu.be/E0Abayg3k_o?t=72

    1. The theory I heard was that Nordstream was disabled to prevent European countries like Germany from bending the knee to Russia later. Europe is getting along without Russian gas for now, but the picture might be different come February. Some freezing countries might be tempted to lift their sanctions on Russia to buy natural gas — in rubles — for heat and electricity. But with no pipeline and no gas, there is no choice but to continue the war.

      ——-
      “When he reached the New World, Cortez burned his ships. As a result, his men were well motivated.” — Marko Ramius, The Hunt for Red October
      ——-

    2. Where’s all the outrage over the environmental destruction from the leftist libtards? Oh, that’s right, it’s selective.

        1. Climate change reasons. Molecule vs. molecule, methane is a much stronger greenhouse gas than CO2. I heard somewhere that the CO2 emissions saved from burning methane vs. coal is offset solely by the methane leaks from natural gas fracking.

      2. from a methane leak? What kind of destruction are you imagining?

        Think about it for a minute: The people who blew up the pipeline are the same people who want to stop cattle ranching and meat consumption because cow farts are causing global warming and climate change. But they’re perfectly fine with blowing up pipelines leaking the same gas into the atmosphere. Did I clear it up for you?

        2. All the methane from herds of braying DebtDonkeys might have something to do with it…..

          …. and to say that global warming isn’t driven by man made causes? Cannot be! It’s the herds of braying DebtDonkeys!

          San Ramon, CA Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY As Double Digit Prices Declines Envelop Northern California

          https://www.movoto.com/san-ramon-ca/market-trends/

  19. A reader sent these in:

    Ryan Lundquist

    Goodbye. Zillow is officially gone from the Sacramento housing market. After announcing failure as an iBuyer in late 2021, they have officially sold their last unit. Ironically, they sold this property to Opendoor.

    https://twitter.com/SacAppraiser/status/1577712251988893696

    More than half of CEOs consider workforce reductions over the next 6 months — and remote workers may be the first go to, per MarketWatch.

    https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1577669515223113729

    Morgan Stanley, $MS: “Housing affordability is deteriorating faster than at any point in our data history.”

    https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1577683353012244486

    Steve Saretsky

    Median sales price of a detached house in the Fraser Valley down 25%, or $455,000 from the peak in February.

    https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/1577694529397739522

    1. Morgan Stanley, $MS: “Housing affordability is deteriorating faster than at any point in our data history.”

      With rates rising as fast as they have, this is destroying house prices at a rate much faster than the past housing bust. It’s because it made the already insanely priced houses that much less affordable. 75% off is needed in many markets. This bust will be epic. There’s no avoiding it.

  20. Housing Market Collapse Could Push Home Prices Down 20 Percent In Major Markets Like Dallas & LA
    Forbes Breaking News
    Oct 5, 2022 As mortgage demand plummets to the lowest level in 25 years, some experts believe the housing market decline will hit a cadre of regions especially hard—pushing prices down as much as 20% in pandemic-era hot spots and other areas where affordability has plunged—even if the broader housing market remains afloat.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-KD5tDZgrc

    1:34.

  21. Housing Market Update | Maryland – Montgomery County | October 2022 Edition
    Edward Dumitrache
    Oct 5, 2022 This Maryland Housing Market Update is meant to present what has been happening in the Montgomery County Maryland Real Estate Market last month, and how it compares to the month before. All data presented was sourced from Freddie Mac (https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms) as well as Bright MLS.
    Interest rates have risen so much in the past year that it was enough to create a shift in the housing market in our local area, but also at a nationwide level. The rate increase has caused two things for buyers, first, buyers can now afford less house on the same income, but second, buyers now have more leverage in the market as they don’t have to compete with dozens of other buyers for the same house, especially since inventory levels have increased a little bit in the past month.
    Homeowners, don’t be alarmed, even though you may have lost the chance of getting $100,000 over the asking price with 25+ offers, but don’t fear, it’s still very much a seller’s market and you would still have most of the leverage when selling. The best part, if you need to buy after selling, you’re in luck, because with inventory having increased, you have more options and won’t have to compete with all those buyers that were in the market before.
    Bottom line, rates are expected to keep increasing, a 7% rate today won’t look as bad when rates are 9%, and even if they do end up dropping down, you’ll be able to refinance at any time.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uK1WsX4KvQ0

    4:39.

    ‘Homeowners, don’t be alarmed, even though you may have lost the chance of getting $100,000 over the asking price with 25+ offers, but don’t fear’

    He he.

    1. Both Montgomery and Prince George’s County, the counties which border DC proper, have a pretty wide range of house prices. Houses selling for “100K over actual value” is probably typical; I saw that a couple times in my nabe. But “$100K over asking” would be unusual except in the wealthy enclaves.

  22. ANTIOCH
    Houses Plunge 77% – Real Estate Market Update 2022
    Chris Ristau Bay Area REALTOR®
    Oct 5, 2022 Housing has plunged 77% in most metro areas this year. With San Jose from January through April, we had 9.3% gains this year. And now we’re at 11.7% negative for the rest of the year. And a lot of our homeowners have not used our ATMs or houses like ATMs. The reality of it is unemployment and the inventory the way they are.

    We have seen the craziest last couple of years in real estate history, so just know that we’re settling into a normal, healthy real estate market. 😇😌

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUjX4MZY9Fk

    1:50.

  23. Fortune
    Around 90% of CEOs believe a recession is coming. Half of them are already planning for layoffs
    Tristan Bove
    Tue, October 4, 2022 at 11:27 AM·3 min read

    A recession is on the way and don’t expect it to be short and mild, according to America’s CEOs.

    The U.S. economic outlook is murky right now. Inflation is way up, but the labor market remains strong, even as the number of job openings dips. After two consecutive quarters of GDP decline and ongoing pressure from the Federal Reserve to slow down the economy, it’s possible the U.S. is already in a recession.

    The vast majority of Americans are worried about a recession within the next year and so are the country’s business leaders, a new survey found. And they expect it to be a long one.
    …
    https://www.yahoo.com/video/around-90-ceos-believe-recession-182706418.html

      1. Technically no, at least based on employment numbers. But those are about to shift…just like housing did.

    2. Still lots of Help Wanted signs, but it’s all for low-pay retail. It’s the career jobs that are in danger now. Quiet quitters and w@h omers beware…

    3. The Financial Times
      Opinion Markets volatility
      Four flashpoints that could threaten financial stability
      From government bonds to private capital, investors should brace for more surprises
      Illustration of coins with euro, dollar and pound symbols on them balancing on a plank balanced on a coin with a dollar symbol
      Gillian Tett 10 hours ago

      Dallas is almost 5,000 miles from London. But when the UK gilt markets imploded last week — forcing the Bank of England to make a £65bn intervention to support pension funds — the drama left Richard Fisher, former chair of the Dallas Federal Reserve, wincing.

      Fisher has warned for years that a decade of ultra loose monetary policy would create pockets of future financial instability. So he sees the British gilts drama (which occurred because the pension funds mishandled highly leveraged bets) not as an isolated event — but as the sign of a trend.

      “This [foolish strategy] always happens when rates are near the zero bound and things have gone to an extreme,” he told CNBC, noting that the crisis is “an indication of other things that are likely to pop up” because investors and institutions have been dangerously overleveraged and “thinking that rates will stay low forever”.

      Quite so. Markets are already becoming jittery and volatile, and not only in the UK. An index of market stress compiled by Washington’s Office for Financial Reporting, for example, has now jumped to a two-year high.

      And while Fisher did not identify where “other things are likely to pop up”, I suggest there are at least four places that investors (and regulators) should now watch closely (aside from other pension funds).

      One is the state of open-ended investment funds, or vehicles that let investors redeem assets at will. As the IMF notes in its forthcoming financial stability review, this sector has swelled to contain $41tn of assets.

      Many funds are run conservatively. But some have moved into illiquid assets to juice returns — and the IMF is now warning that this liquidity mismatch “contributes to volatility in asset markets and potentially threatens financial stability”, if investors start to panic.

      Some observers might respond “well, duh”. After all, liquidity and duration mismatches are usually the source of financial dramas, and this one is not new. But it needs to be watched, particularly since nobody seems to know just how big the potentially illiquid exposures are.

      A second issue is government bonds. Last week’s gilts crisis partly arose due to the idiosyncratic nature of the British pension fund system. But not entirely: all western government bond markets are grappling with the fact that liquidity increasingly tends to evaporate at moments of stress. One reason is that big banks no longer act as market makers, due to tighter regulatory controls.

      This liquidity issue created a near-disaster in Treasuries in March 2020 and some observers fear that a so-called “volatility vortex” in US markets could emerge again. And, while central banks are trying to fix this, it is not easy to do.

      After all, as Paul Tucker, former deputy governor of the BoE, noted this summer, arguably the only truly effective “fix” would be for the central banks to promise to always offer liquidity for supposedly “safe” assets, such as government bonds, in a crisis. The BoE did this as an emergency measure last week. But no central bank wants to make a permanent pledge, since they are supposed to be reducing, not raising, market meddling.

      A third issue is housing. As the Bank for International Settlements recently noted in a trenchant report, the global property market has recently looked odd by historical standards. Correlations between different geographies have surged and house prices rebounded surprisingly swiftly after the pandemic recession.

      More notable still, prices kept rising earlier this year, even after monetary tightening started. This may reflect structural shifts, like working from home, but it was also a consequence of the past ultra loose monetary policy.

      However, in recent weeks there has been a stunning surge in the 30-year fixed US mortgage rate in America to 6.75 per cent, its highest rate since 2006. That will almost certainly cause house prices to fall in the coming weeks. Brace yourself for volatility — and stress — in mortgage bonds.

      A fourth issue is private capital. Arguably the biggest difference between the current tightening cycle and previous ones (aside from the eye-popping scale of previous monetary loosening) is that much of the free money frenzy occurred in the private equity and venture capital funds, not (just) public markets.

      This makes it harder than before to track pain, as the monetary cycle turns. We can see that junk bond prices have recently tumbled; we cannot track the true value of assets held by private funds. Maybe they are marking these down correctly. But I doubt it, particularly given that they are increasingly selling assets to each other. Expect a future reckoning.
      …

  25. These yootoob channels seem to be loving all these falling housing price reports…… except Tim the RealtLiar.

    Sonoma, CA Housing Price Crater 21% YOY As Mortgage Fraud And Depopulation Accelerate In Northern California

    https://www.movoto.com/sonoma-ca/market-trends/

    A California broker commented, “Housing prices are cratering and demand is collapsing.”

    1. The AP reported this too. And they are globalist scum. Sure every one of the tens of thousands in stadiums every weekend chanting FOOK JOE BIDEN are terrified of this senile corrupt pedophile! Really scared. Maybe he means we are afraid of his crack head son? Or his daughter he used to take showers with? You have to admit the little girls and boys he fondles in front of cameras are a little freaked out. I don’t know about you but guys so old they walk around shaking hands with invisible people have always commanded my respect.

    2. There’s that “devout Catholic” again…… what a self-deluded loser.

      Hey Joe Biden…. guys who are really good at what they do are humble and dignified…. they don’t have to get involved in dick-measuring contests like you just did.

  28. The idea of a Fed pivot is a false hope, says Julie Biel
    CNBC Television
    Oct 6, 2022 Julie Biel, portfolio manager and senior research analyst at Kayne Anderson Rudnick, and venture capitalist Kevin O’Leary join CNBC’s ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss what the Federal Reserve’s move to hike rates means for markets.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6C4sfekAak

    5:25. The new talking point: they fooked up before and they’re fooking up now! Make it stop!!

  29. How are higher interest rates affecting those trying to buy or sell a home?
    Global News
    Oct 5, 2022 According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, homes in Canada’s largest city sold for 4.25 per cent less on average in September 2022 than in 2021.

    The main reason for the drop in home prices was the rising cost of borrowing. Higher interest rates have combined with fewer sales and a scarcity of homes to drive prices downward.

    But the higher cost of borrowing isn’t impacting only those looking to buy a home. As Sean O’Shea reports, one expert he spoke to said higher interest rates could leave some Canadians with no choice but to sell their home.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOIcA8WUmSY

    1:48. A foreclosure, in K-DA?

  30. “‘Lenders have stopped lending or increased their rates to prohibitive levels.’”

    Rates are not prohibitive, asinine high shack prices are.

  32. A month or so ago our realtor took us to look at an Opendoor house. I told him the house had potential and I’d offer $XXX for it. Our realtor told us we’d probably lose it to a higher bid and he would hate to see that happen.
    I told him that I would offer $XXX and no more because there was some updating that needed to be done.
    I ended up walking away because he wasn’t fond of what we wanted to offer (it was ~20k under asking, and I still thought that was too much).

    I just checked and the house sold for 2k less than I offered. I asked my husband if I could call our realtor and fire him. He told me that probably wasn’t a good idea, but it wouldn’t hurt to call him and let him know it sold for less that what I was willing to pay.

    Is it possible to purchase a house without a realtor?

    1. Is it possible to purchase a house without a realtor?

      Regardless of whether or not you have one, the seller pays the 6%, and his realtor keeps the whole commission if there is no buyers agent, or so I understand.

      Now, if you buy from a FSBO, then there is no commission involved.

    3. “Is it possible to purchase a house without a realtor?”

      I sold the place I owned from 1984 – 2005 without a Realtor. Fixed it up to where it was nicer than all the years I lived there and sold it in four hours of an open house I had listed in the paper for $50.

      Rented from late 2005 and bought in 2012. I found the house, it was a Fannie Mae foreclosure and I used a Realtor to purchase it. Funny thing was the Realtor I used called the listing agent and was told not to bother putting in an offer, they already had a strong buyer. I talked my agent into putting in an offer $2k over asking and it was accepted. Evidently pissed off the listing agent because they had to split the commission.

      FWIW

      I sold at what I felt was near a peak and listed it $10k below the lowest comparable listing. Then after several years of putting in lowball offers I got a house pretty close to what and where I wanted by bidding $2k over asking near a market bottom in 2012.

    4. “….Our realtor told us we’d probably lose it to a higher bid and he would ***hate to see that happen***….”

      Really?, a that realtor gives a flying F’ about you, the potential buyer?

      Realtors *only* care about commissions. To them, you, the potential buyer, is just an annoyance, like a large house fly.

      1. My 4 month old is laying on her blanket farting up a storm, and that’s an accurate summary of how I feel about the realtors I’ve had to deal with.

        I agree with you completely.

    5. When your realtor balks then lower the bid a bit and politely demand they submit it or you will find someone else. It is your deal not theirs. Make it clear that you are not interested in the sellers feelings. That said, you are going to be kicking yourself for not waiting for the real crash. This was a blessing in disguise. If you are patient you will score a deal you never thought was possible in a couple years. If you don’t wait, you will be watching prices plummet while ‘underwater’. This crash has barely just begun. Florida is going to have long lists of foreclosed properties all over the state. There will be a point where people with good credit and a little cash will be treated like VIP’s.

      1. Yeah, I think we are waiting as long as we can. I told my husband we need to buy a bunk bed for our baby’s room because we want to have another kid. Maybe even a trundle bed would be great. Hopefully our landlord won’t sell his property or jack the rent up too high over the next year or two. I guess right now it’s a game of how many kids we can fit in one bedroom and still have the apartment be a reasonable space for my husband to work since he works remotely.

        1. I shared a small bedroom with my sister until I was about 6. Bunk beds and a varnished peach crate for a dresser.

          I played outside alot!

          If you buy now, you are probably throwing away a decade or two of dear hubby’s blood, sweat and tears. Just sayin.

      2. exactly what IPF said. Realtors are required to submit offers. It’s not their money, ti’s yours. Also a buyer should give not 2 GDs about the seller’s feelings. It’s just business, it’s not personal. Always be ready to walk away. It’s just sticks and bricks, they make millions every year. Just find another one who’s not a twatwaffle. and NEVER sign a buyer’s agent agreement.

        As he said Realtors have no fiduciary responsibility, they are only working for the deal, not for you (either as buyer or seller). And a realtor that’s working both sides of the deal (transaction broker) isn’t working for either side. That’s a scam.

        And I agree with wait. Now is the time to be patient.

        1. “it’s not their money, ti’s yours.”

          It’s the banks money. You’re just paying it back… times 3…. for a rapidly depreciating asset, in this case a house.

      1. It’s always so easy to figure out what to do when you’re trying to grow a family and manage resources. Shut your pie hole.

        1. Life has a way of throwing curve balls and changing priorities. Best to not overextend. Debt is slavery.

          P.S. I’ve been waiting 17 years.

          1. I’ve been waiting 17 years

            Perhaps you’ve been avoiding being stupid for 17 years. There’s no expiration date on that.

          2. 17 years. That’s a large chunk of a person’s adult life.

            If you’d bought in 2005 when the median home price is the US was $241,000, you’d have paid off a 15 year mortgage two years ago. Or be nearing the end of a 20 year loan. Median US home price is currently $428,700. And it wouldn’t matter how much home prices decline, because when you have no mortgage, you can never be “upside down”.

            Maybe one size doesn’t fit all and y’all should give DF a break.

            I bought a place in Irvine in 1993 and people said I was crazy to pay $120k for a home there. Still have that place today.

          3. I’m in San Diego. 2005/2006 was not a time buy. I lost my job for having a baby in 2010. My son was essentially diagnosed with autism in 2013. We lost my MIL, FIL, grandmother, grandmother’s husband, mother and son’s preschool classmate between 2013-2016.

          5. After my VP “unexpectedly retired” in 2018, the year I had an ectopic pregnancy, my supervisor was a soon-to-retire childless c@nt, who threatened my job when I was 7 months pregnant.

          6. My son was essentially diagnosed with…We lost my MIL, FIL, grandmother, grandmother’s husband, mother and son’s preschool classmate

            All that and lost my wife and my dad! I’ll tell you though, it was a hell of a good run. I swear to God, I am as lucky as can be to have had all these loving relationships, and the handicapped daughter, she loves better than anybody I ever knew.

            Sorry for you if you focus on what you lost, rather than on how fortunate you were to have had what many don’t get.

            When my dad dies, I wrote a letter to my boss apologizing for being unable to show up for a few days. I explained how I had lost my best friend, my mentor, my fishing buddy, my hero. The SOB forwarded it to our whole team. One of my colleagues wrote to me “I so envy you.”

            Anyhow, maybe you get my point or you don’t. Best wishes.

          7. There is a time for everything.
            There is a time to wait, and there is a time when it’s not longer wise to wait anymore. When that time is will depend on your circumstances.
            Then there is a time to look while waiting. My husband grew up in NYC slums. Getting out and looking at houses and learning how the industry works has been good for us. When the right house comes and it’s time we’ll be ready. I don’t really care if someone on the internet thinks I’m a moron. Most everyone who knows me personally thinks I’m too financially conservative. I’m glad this is a free country where people have the right to call me stupid and I have the right to call them stupid right back. Now we can go on with our lives.

            I find it funny that people ignored the fact that I offered 20k less than asking on an Opendoor home which had already had multiple thousands of dollars in price cuts. Like seriously, do y’all think I was out there offering absurd amounts of money on a dump? Good grief. But that’s your right. -shrug-

          8. “There is a time for everything.”

            We moved from coastal California 1998 as the dot-com bubble was pushing housing prices upward, and I told my wife, “It’ll blow-up within 5-yrs,” and it did. What I didn’t see coming was Greenspan deciding that home equity extraction was needed to rescue the consumer economy, so we bought, FSBO, up here in flyover country with housing prices at the bottom of the trough.

            Now the upper education industry is strip-mining my finances, but we’re still solvent.

        2. My wife and I lived through the last bust in 2006-2012 in an $850 month apartment with no heat or ac on the third floor with a leaking ceiling with a preg wife and a toddler. 2012 came we got a decent home for an affordable price. You must wait. There’s no hurry until 1st grade. By then prices will be reasonable and you’ll meet everyone else with kids in the same area who all waited until
          The right time just like you did.

        3. It’s always so easy to figure out what to do when you’re trying to grow a family and manage resources. Shut your pie hole.

          Exactly the kind of response I’d expect from a person who reads a housing bubble blog then tries to buy a house at the peak. You can’t fix stupid.

    7. Yeah, firing a realtor is a bad idea. It’s not like there are thousands more sitting by the phone just waiting for your call.

      But in all seriousness, the realtor’s incompetence did you a favor.

  33. Some of these realtors with an youtube presence are seriously pretzeling themselves into contorted shapes over falling prices. I think it’s because they’ve been lying to the public (on and off the net) for so long, they don’t know how to concede prices are falling without appearing to be the liars they they truly are.

    1. The price drops are just getting started here in the Augusta area but I can’t wait till they get rolling. The builders and their reps here are still under the impression that they can charge $200 a sq. ft. for stick built homes but many of those homes have been sitting there completed since early summer. Wonder when they’ll start to realize that the median income here is about $60k a year and price accordingly?

      1. The Augusta, Georgia population is barely over 200k, there’s an airport with scheduled service, major medical center and a university campus, so there’s a real economy, which means RE prices will likely be “sticky” on the way down.

        I live in a 7k population, Jesus loving, scrub desert flyover town with a 35k population city an hour away, and the over-leveraged bottom will drop away just like 2005/2006.

  36. “…There will be a point where people with good credit and a little cash will be treated like VIP’s….”

    Absolutely spot on.

    In the future Realtor / Potential buyer conversations will go something like this:

    Potential Buyer: Realtor, I want you to get on all fours and bark like a dog.

    Realtor: Yes, Sir! Would you like to hear my Chihuahua?

    Potential Buyer: Oh by the way, your commission for this transaction will be a large bag of Kibbles.

    Realtor: Thank you Sir!. We Relators are here to serve you, Sir.

    1. People in Florida don’t believe that the housing prices here could ever fall.
      It’s apparently too high demand and has been undervalued for a long time.

      Meanwhile, I had a friend tell me the story of some kids who make less than my husband does and they bought a 400k house.

      It can’t happen here. It can never happen here. Just like America can never be Communist (what’s the Federal Reserve?!).

      1. “a friend tell me the story of some kids who make less than my husband does and they bought a 400k house.”

        My wife used to get that same story in Palm Beach Gardens/Jupiter back in 2004 – 2005.

        I think you know what happened shortly after.

    1. “Fed’s Evans: rate hikes of 125 basis points are expected over the next two meetings.”

      1. That ought to be just enough to push the 15 year lending rate decisively into the double digit range…. say roughly 12%.

        This is good news!

    1. I’ve been in the right place at the wrong time once or twice, but mostly the other way around. I’ve made a fortune or two and spent most of it on beautiful women, fast boats and excellent whisky. The rest I just wasted.

      1. “I’ve made a fortune or two and spent most of it on beautiful women, fast boats and excellent whisky. The rest I just wasted.”

        🙂

        No Country for Old Men | “A million and a half in whores and whisky…”

        https://youtu.be/eU_Ur1916aU

  41. ‘They’re calling because they want to talk. They want to understand what’s going on’

    Ring ring!

    HBB help line.

    I need to talk. I want to understand what’s going on.

    You are here: -> bargaining.

  42. Your income taxes are paying for all of this, and now he wants to launch a pre-emptive nuclear war:

    “President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky believes that “NATO should make it impossible for Russia to use nuclear weapons.”

    “Preemptive strikes are needed so that they know what awaits them if they use nuclear weapons. Not the other way around, waiting for Russia’s nuclear strikes and then saying, ‘oh, you’ve done that, then get this,'” he said on Thursday, speaking via video link at Australia’s think tank, the Lowy Institute.

    NATO, Zelensky said, “should reconsider how it uses its pressure.”

    https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/863548.html

    Go to work tomorrow, slave. Pay your income taxes. You can’t afford gas or food, but you must pay for this.

    1. Russia Today, because the New York Times and Washington Post are globalist scum media.

      Ukraine conflict spurs shady US arms trade (10/6/2022):

      “A Bulgarian-American from Missouri stood to make more than $2 million from brokering an arms deal with Ukraine, until the New York Times ruined it by warning the authorities his paperwork was’t quite right. According to the story published on Thursday, Martin Zlatev sought to sell Kiev weapons and ammunition made in Bulgaria and Bosnia-Herzegovina, which officially do not allow such trade.”

      New York Times only sad and butthurt their people got cut out of the deal. Globalists gonna globe.

      “In order to get around the Bosnian and Bulgarian export bans, BMI planned to tell the governments in Sarajevo and Sofia that Poland was the weapons’ final destination, the Times reported, citing a letter Zlatev sent to Ukrainian procurement officials.

      “The legality of using falsified records is murky, say lawyers and academics who work in the field”

      Murky? Like a swamp? Like the 2020 election?

      “Zlatev and Gjorgjievski were acting as the middleman, using the fact that they had a US government license. President Joe Biden’s administration authorized over $300 million in private weapons contracts to Ukraine in the first four months of 2022. The approval process that normally takes weeks now takes “a matter of hours”

      https://www.rt.com/news/564187-ukraine-weapons-bosnia-bulgaria/

      The national debt is now over $31 trillion.

      Tell your children and grandchildren you voted for this. Look them in the eye, and tell them you sold out their future. But you won’t. You never will.

      Pull that mask back over your nose.

      There are no more mean tweets now…

  43. Some China property developers pretend to resume construction on stalled projects: report
    Spotlight on China
    Oct 6, 2022 According to Caixin, some property developers in the central Chinese city of Zhengzhou pretend to restart construction on stalled projects because they do not have enough funds.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQTZZiT7PS0

    2:31.

  44. This is Joe Biden’s America. This is where “vote blue no matter who” takes you,

    KDVR — Teen to be charged as adult in connection to death of 14-year-old boy (raised by Obama and Cloward-Piven, with a healthy helping of Soros money):

    “Of the 101 homicides Your Affiant has been either the primary or secondary investigator on, this victim suffered injuries indicative of the most violent assault Your Affiant has seen. Further, Your Affiant doesn’t recall being involved in a case where one victim was assaulted in so many different ways; stabbed, beaten-probably ‘pistol whipped,’ shot and possibly stomped on,” said Detective Daniel Andrews in the arrest affidavit.

    https://kdvr.com/news/local/teen-to-be-charged-as-adult-in-connection-to-death-of-14-year-old-boy/

    Sounds like a Democrat Party kind of thang…

  45. Tallahassee sellers just realized the theater is on fire! 🤣

    Price history
    Date Event Price
    10/5/2022 Price change $189,000 (-14.1%)$136/sqft

    10/5/2022 Listed for sale $220,000 (-7.6%)$159/sqft

    3/4/2022 Listing removed $238,000$172/sqft

    2/16/2022 Contingent $238,000$172/sqft

    2/12/2022 Listed for sale $238,000 (+10.7%)$172/sqft

    10/30/2021 Listing removed $215,000$155/sqft

    10/5/2021 Listed for sale $215,000$155/sqft

    9/18/2021 Contingent $215,000$155/sqft

    9/18/2021 Listed for sale $215,000 (+55.8%)$155/sqft

    9/23/2014 Sold $138,000 (-2.8%)$100/sqft

  46. If The West “Winning” is the type of tyranny in Canada and New Zealand, what exactly does The West think it’s winning?

    Marxism ends best when it’s pushed out of a helicopter into the ocean, there will never be any negotiation with these bloodsucking tyrants.

    “They’re not sending their best”

    1. A couple of local data points on how contained inflation is:

      1) I just paid over $6 per gallon of gasoline for the first time ever. That’s up over 50% in two years.

      2) My wife freaked out upon reading that rents on other single family homes in our neighborhood are all listed at over $4000 a month. That’s more than 33% higher than two years ago.

    2. MoneyWatch
      Inflation is slamming U.S. seniors. “It’s a scary time,” one disabled widow said.
      By Aimee Picchi
      October 6, 2022 / 3:46 PM / MoneyWatch

      About 66 million seniors, disabled Americans and others rely on Social Security for monthly retirement income that can cover some, and often all, of their bills. But this year’s cost-of-living adjustment is lagging the highest inflation in 40 years, eating into seniors’ buying power.

      Many seniors are hoping that 2023 will provide some respite from from painfully high inflation, with the Social Security Administration expected to announce on October 13 the largest cost-of-living adjustment for the program’s recipients since 1981. But, experts caution, it’s not clear whether a benefit hike — expected to land between 8% and 9% — will keep seniors from losing more ground.
      …
      https://www.cbsnews.com/news/social-security-2023-cola-increase-inflation/#app

    3. Markets
      DOW -1.15%
      S&P 500 -1.02%
      NASDAQ -0.68%

      Fear & Greed Index
      Markets are starting to act super strange
      By Nicole Goodkind, CNN Business
      Published 7:55 AM EDT, Thu October 6, 2022
      Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in Washington, U.S., July 27, 2022.

      New York CNN Business —

      Investors are tightening their neck braces as US stocks soar upwards, plummet back down and then do it all over. Stock market volatility is at its bumpiest level since July.

      The whiplash-inducing ride comes as conflicting data paints a cloudy picture about the state of the US economy. Investors have been reading economic reports as tea leaves, searching for signs that the Federal Reserve could soon pivot to a slower pace of rate hikes to fight inflation, and reacting accordingly.

      What’s happening: The S&P 500 just printed its worst performance through the first nine months of any year since 2002. September was particularly rough – with all three major US indexes falling into a bear market.

      October brought more vertigo as stocks quickly recovered. The S&P 500 gained 5.7% on Monday and Tuesday, its biggest two-day increase since April 2020. On Wednesday, stocks plunged once more before quickly bouncing back slightly. They ended the day slightly lower.

      This week’s strange swings correspond with two new data points that buoyed the possibility of a Fed pivot.

      Markets surged on the news that the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by just a quarter of a percentage point on Tuesday. That’s half the amount analysts had expected.

      The move led to speculation that the Fed could jump on the bandwagon and dial back its own rates.

      That seems unlikely. “We’re starting to see some things the doves can hang their hat on, but I don’t think it will be enough to stop another 75 basis-point move in November,” wrote Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research in a note Tuesday.

      Then, September job vacancy numbers dropped sharply, falling below analyst expectations, according to Refinitiv data.

      A weakening labor market puts downward pressure on wages and inflation. So while fewer job openings appear bad at face value, they indicate that the Fed’s tightening regimen is working.

      The Fed will see this as “an encouraging development,” wrote analysts at Barclays, but they cautioned that it’s just one piece of data among many. The labor market is still tight with about 1.7 job openings for every unemployed worker in the US.

      The hope appeared to be fleeting, anyway. New private employment data on Wednesday by payroll services firm ADP suggested that the labor market isn’t losing any steam. Businesses beat estimates with 208,000 jobs added in September. They added 185,000 jobs in August.

      The disconnect: If it feels like we’ve been here before, it’s because we have.

      Pivot-friendly thinking helped fuel the bear market rally we saw in July and August. That didn’t last, and markets crashed to hit new lows by early fall.
      …
      https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/06/investing/premarket-trading-stocks/index.html

    1. California Middle Class Tax Refund payments go out this week. See when you’ll get paid
      Calculate your Middle Class Tax Refund payment by going to the California Franchise Tax Board’s website.
      KABC logo
      Thursday, October 6, 2022 5:21PM
      California gas refund arriving soon.

      Californians who qualify for the state’s gas price relief program should start to see their payments in the next few weeks.

      Millions of qualifying Californians will receive up to $1,050 as part of the state’s Middle Class Tax Refund program starting this week. The first round of payments are set to go out Friday.

      Approximately 23 million taxpaying California residents are eligible to receive the payments, with smaller payments going to higher earners.

      The payments, which are technically tax refunds, are meant “to help address rising costs,” according to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office.

      Newsom and state lawmakers reached a deal for the refunds back in June, when gas prices were shattering records at or above $7 a gallon.
      …
      https://abc7.com/california-stimulus-checks-inflation-relief-middle-class-tax-refund/12298334/

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