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There’s Losers Already Happening

A report from Market Place. “Kai Ryssdal checked in with Vivian Gueler, CFO at Pacific Trust Group, a mortgage lender in Los Angeles. You said then that business for you had ‘come to a screeching halt.’ And one can only wonder what life is like now in the mortgage business with rates at like almost 7%. Vivian Gueler: Oh, Kai. Yeah, if you can believe it, it’s actually gotten worse. It’s pretty doom and gloom. I mean, there’s been another huge wholesale lender, Finance of America, that announced closure this week. That, coupled with a couple of other biggies, we’re starting to see again more layoffs, you know, with lenders across the board. Definitely slower right now than 2008.”

The Orange County Register. “Forty-three percent of California homes sold below their initial asking prices by the end of the summer, compared with just 15% last spring. ‘Buyers and sellers are adapting to the new realities of the market,’ said Bay Area real estate broker Otto Catrina, CAR’s 2022 president. ‘As sellers adjust their expectations, well-priced homes are still selling quickly. And for buyers, (there are) more homes for sale, less competition, and fewer homes selling above asking price.'”

CBS Los Angeles. “The California housing market has seen a noted decrease in sales, causing the listing prices of homes to experience a drastic drop. ‘Huge change,’ said John Moreno, a local real estate agent. ‘Everything just kind of shifted starting probably at the end of Spring, beginning of Summer.’ He admits that for the first time in a long time, he’s been forced to price things differently for his clients looking to make top dollar on their property. ‘Sometimes, that ruling is gonna require maybe putting a list price lower than we would have six weeks ago, two weeks ago even.'”

“In a recent report by Zillow, the average price of a home in Southern California has dropped 6% since May — the biggest drop since 2012. ‘With the interest rates going up, everybody kinda freaked out,’ Moreno said.”

From Market Watch. “Zillow, Realtor.com, and John Burns Real Estate Consulting, all noted price drops in cities that were hot over the last two years. ‘Many more regional housing markets will soon follow the downward pricing path that’s already playing out quickly along the West Coast, along with markets that rode the recent home-price appreciation wave hardest such as Austin, Boise, and Phoenix,’ added Rick Palacios Jr., director of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting.”

“Here’s the top five markets that saw the biggest peak-to-current declines, based on the company’s September Burns Home Value Index. All of the markets had peaked either in March or April, Palacios Jr. noted. Los Angeles, declined by 11% from its peak. San Francisco, declined by 11% from its peak. San Diego, declined 9% from its peak. San Jose, declined 8% from its peak. Orange County, Calif., declined 7% from its peak. Home values in Austin, Boise, and Phoenix also declined by 6%, according to the Burns index.”

“‘We’re finally seeing the market normalizing,’ said Andrea Crouch, board president of Phoenix Realtors. ‘Sellers are now having the opportunity to thoughtfully assess a more reasonable, and realistic, number of offers, while buyers are being spared from having to make what were often on-the-spot, snap decisions with their realtors.'”

The Gazette Journal. “Reno-based real estate appraisal and technology firm Clear Capital laid off more than a quarter of its workforce, citing a sizable decline in its business. ‘Clear Capital is restructuring all company divisions to reduce expenses and support our future business strategy amidst today’s housing market reality,’ said CEO Duane Andrews. ‘The impact of a rising interest rate environment in the mortgage industry has resulted in a significant decrease in volume from our customers, which has forced us to make some difficult decisions.’ Clear Capital has its headquarters in Reno as well as offices in Truckee and Roseville, California, and Bloomington, Minnesota.”

The Orlando Business Journal in Florida. “Some Central Florida Realtors are talking about ghosts, and it’s not because Halloween is around the corner. ‘Under $1 million dollars, it’s like a ghost town,’ said Deanna Armel, owner of Kissimmee-based Armel Real Estate Inc. ‘Over $1 million, people still are buying. They still have cash.’ As interest rates make homes pricier and buyers refuse to pay the skyrocketing prices common in the last two years, houses sit on the market longer, Armel added. ‘People are scared. They don’t think they can afford it.'”

The Dallas Business Journal. “The number of real estate agents who sold one or more homes last month dropped sharply in Dallas — and even more in Austin — in another sign of the rapidly cooling housing market in Texas. The number of active agents in Dallas fell to 756 in September from 947 in August, according to AgentStory. The active agent count in Austin dropped to 389 in September from 810 in August. Both markets had well over 1,000 active agents in March, April and May, before the number started to slide. ‘The rate of deceleration in Texas is profound,’ said jon Cardella, CEO of AgentStory. ‘Volume is falling through the floor.'”

“Homes are sitting on the market longer, according to a report by the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University. ‘Overall home sales have been in freefall since around April,’ according to the report.”

KVUE in Texas. “Home prices in the Austin metro area are dropping more than in any other city in the country, according to a new report from Realtor.com. Austin came in at No. 1 for the biggest price drop. In September, Realtor.com reports that the median home list price in the Austin metro was $558,275. That’s down 10.3% since June. Meanwhile, the percentage of sellers in the metro area who cut their list prices was up 252% in September compared with 2021.”

From Vail Daily. “Craig Denton of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Colorado Properties said he’s seeing price reductions in between 6 and 10 units every day. Those prices are still higher than those seen in 2019. Steffen Mehnert, the Vail Valley team leader for Keller Williams Realty added that brokers are again hosting open houses at homes up and down the valley. ‘There’s a real disconnect between buyers and sellers right now,’ Mehnert said, with buyers waiting for prices to come down, while sellers are hoping prices stay where they are.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Since 2017 so-called multiple-property owners have been the largest group of buyers of Ontario real estate. This cohort has grown in recent years and they behave differently from other owners in a number of ways that appear to describe some of the features real estate investing defined by the popular acronym BRRR: Buy, rent, renovate and refinance. ‘COVID made investing in real estate sexy, where before it was a dormant asset class,’ said Jack Bernstone, a BRRR investor who amassed a portfolio of more than two dozen rental properties in Ontario by his late 20s.”

“Where he foresees trouble is among those BRRR investors who were over-reliant on cheap debt: ‘There is a huge portion of people who borrow the construction costs and the down payment,’ he said. ‘There’s a good chunk of investors that might get wiped out on this. … There’s losers already happening, I’ve seen it personally, people in my network are folding businesses.'”

The Telegraph in the UK. “Prospective homebuyers have lost thousands of pounds in deposits and legal fees after lenders pulled mortgage offers in anticipation of a market downturn. Marc von Grundherr, of London estate agency Benham and Reeves, said banks were even U-turning on offers after contracts between the buyer and seller had been exchanged. He said: ‘In my 25 years, I have never seen a lender pull a mortgage offer but we have heard of at least 10 cases. To go back on a firm mortgage offer is pretty awful and very stressful for everyone involved.'”

“In one instance a buyer purchasing a property worth just under £3 million in London had secured a mortgage offer at 2.2pc with a 35pc deposit. Mr von Grundherr said: ‘The property was off-plan and he had already exchanged and paid the deposit, then just under two weeks ago the lender, who is a major high street name, pulled the offer and hiked the rate to 4.8pc. It has more than doubled the financing costs and the buyer could lose their deposit and be sued by the seller for legal costs.'”

From Globes in Israel. “Just six months ago an investor could receive about 2% annual returns on leasing an apartment in Tel Aviv – let’s say NIS 6,700 a month rent on an apartment worth NIS 4 million. It looked like a paying proposition. As a solid investment option, it didn’t yield much. But the banks were offering mortgages at 1% rates (prime minus 0.6%) or linked to inflation, which had been in negative territory for the past five to 10 years. And of course in Tel Aviv, there was ‘permanent demand and no supply.'”

“Then the era of cheap money ended. Interest rates and inflation began rising quickly and the oxygen supporting the market suddenly thinned out, and the result, as Swiss bank UBS points out in its Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2022, which was published yesterday, is that the Tel Aviv housing market, as in many cities around the world, is looking risky, including the ultimate threat, the development of a ‘bubble.'”

“Investors can now obtain 3% returns on their bank deposits, without any risk. Those not owning an apartment understand that a mortgage, linked to prime or the Consumer Price Index, now has repayments costing hundreds of thousands of shekels more. Even tech employees are more concerned about a slowdown and the difficulties of servicing large debt.”

“Moreover, the argument that there is ‘no supply’ suddenly no longer seems to hold water. Tel Aviv is one huge urban renewal building site with denser, high-rise construction the order of the day, while in north Tel Aviv there are still land reserves for tens of thousands of new apartments.”

From Bloomberg. “The wave of stimulus aimed at reviving China’s housing market — billions in bank loans, interest rate cuts and support for developers — has done little to help Echo sell her home near Shanghai. The media worker has received only four nibbles from potential buyers in six months, and is considering a 10% cut to her asking price of 3.3 million yuan ($460,000). She thinks this stagnant housing market, the worst in China’s modern history, will drag on for years.”

“‘Everyone is waiting for a steeper drop in home prices before they make up their mind to buy,’ said Echo, who asked to be identified only by her first name for fear of retribution given her negative outlook. ‘There’s going to be a vicious cycle.'”

“Real estate accounts for about a quarter of domestic output and almost 40% of household assets. Bursting a bubble of this size without triggering a financial crisis is difficult for any government, and previous attempts in Japan from 1989, and the US in 2007-08 proved to be disastrous. Lengmu, a real estate agent in Shanghai, has only done two deals since the city lifted its lockdown in June. He says the average number of second-hand homes sold in one block has dropped to below 10 over the past six months, compared with around 30 to 50 in a good year. Clients have either left the city or are waiting for prices to stop falling.”

‘It’s really tough to broker a deal these days,’ said Lengmu, who only wanted his first name used and has worked in real estate for four years. He hopes the market will improve after the rate cuts. ‘If you can’t secure any deal, you don’t get paid anything more than your basic salary. I feel pressured.'”

“There’s plenty of supply already after developers like Evergrande went on a borrowing frenzy in the last decade to build more apartments. Bloomberg Economics estimates about 2.8 billion square meters of real estate is currently sitting empty — an area 47 times the size of Manhattan.”

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This Post Has 138 Comments

  1. Blanket HBB warning: stop giving it away dammit!

    ‘He admits that for the first time in a long time, he’s been forced to price things differently for his clients looking to make top dollar on their property. ‘Sometimes, that ruling is gonna require maybe putting a list price lower than we would have six weeks ago, two weeks ago even’

    Yer a prime example John. Hold yer ground. Turn those machines back on!!

  2. ‘Then the era of cheap money ended’

    Wa? But I still have blank checks?

    ‘Moreover, the argument that there is ‘no supply’ suddenly no longer seems to hold water’

    It’s interesting that this REIC horsesh$t always evaporates when prices start sinking like a turd in a well.

  3. ‘There is a huge portion of people who borrow the construction costs and the down payment’

    Borrow the down payment – sound lending I tells ya!

    ‘There’s a good chunk of investors that might get wiped out on this. … There’s losers already happening’

    I may need more coffee cuz I can’t believe this. It’s K-da. Jack, are you seriously saying those igloo cluster shacks aren’t worth 2 million K-dn pesos?

    Sacré bleu!

    2. The inflation stats were bad today. I was chatting with an employee in one of the discount stores near my house she said they are closing the doors in December because of a rent increase…which got me thinking. How is the Fed going to fix inflation with interest rate increases when significant numbers of commercial mortgages are ARMs? The mortgage holders will just increase rents and the tenants will have to increase prices. And on top of that when the economy weakens the government will just borrow more money at higher interest rates to “stimulate” the economy. Maybe the only real way to get inflation under control at this point is to let bad debt be flushed out of the system, which means a good portion of the Fed MBS balance sheet probably evaporates. The more I think about it, the more it looks like checkmate.

      2. They should have done this a decade ago. We’d have already been recovering. They should do it now. They shouldn’t have inflated and stimulated over the past decade or the decades before. They shouldn’t have shut the country down during the bogey man death scare. There’s plemty of things they shouldn’t have done, but they do over and over.

        Don’t know if it’s checkmate, but the more they do things like “spend more to beat inflation” the worse the consequences will be.

      3. There is no way of getting it under control. Only a complete collapse, blood on the streets and revising the rules under which an economic system function will get thins under control again. This is nothing but a system based on fraud, deceit, and reckless greed. When you call a huge risk an asset and start leveraging it 100 times, it becomes a question of time before everyone gets exposed. Back to the drawing board and redesign it with sound lows! It can’t stand the way it is. It’s over.

    3. Another relevant point: the ibuyers used 100% financing to buy up single family homes with the second tier of financing being ARM mezzanine loans. The ibuyer death watch will start pretty soon as year over year price declines hit at the same time as big increase in debt payments.

  4. You said then that business for you had ‘come to a screeching halt.’ And one can only wonder what life is like now in the mortgage business with rates at like almost 7%. Vivian Gueler: Oh, Kai. Yeah, if you can believe it, it’s actually gotten worse. It’s pretty doom and gloom. I mean, there’s been another huge wholesale lender, Finance of America, that announced closure this week. That, coupled with a couple of other biggies, we’re starting to see again more layoffs, you know, with lenders across the board. Definitely slower right now than 2008′

    It is different this time.

    ‘if you can believe it, it’s actually gotten worse. It’s pretty doom and gloom’

    Yer a perma bear Vivian, dam yer short sighted eyes!

  5. ‘Many more regional housing markets will soon follow the downward pricing path that’s already playing out quickly along the West Coast, along with markets that rode the recent home-price appreciation wave hardest such as Austin, Boise, and Phoenix’

    But minor respiratory illness? We see a lot about pandemic boom-towns. There is a complete lack of journalism looking at just WTF happened here the past 2 and a half years. Next up: mortgage and appraisal fraud that had to exist for this to happen.

    1. “Next up: mortgage and appraisal fraud that had to exist for this to happen.”

      It’s gonna be a beaut of a scene too. The mechanism is self-evident, even to a 5th grader but some times the easy stuff goes over everyones head… unless it has to do with money.. then it’s deliberately omitted and concealed.

      The best part about it all? $120k of materials, labor and dirt is still only worth $120k… less depreciation in the case of 20 year old shanties.

  6. ‘The rate of deceleration in Texas is profound…Volume is falling through the floor…Overall home sales have been in freefall since around April’

    Et tu Jim?

  7. ‘Under $1 million dollars, it’s like a ghost town…Over $1 million, people still are buying. They still have cash’

    I’ll make this point cuz REIC won’t: median is a lagging indicator cuz people with actual money! will start schlonging sellers in the pricier shacks. That means the median will appear to go up even as the real market craters. With all the crater being reported, it’s WORSER!

    1. “…That means the median will appear to go up even as the real market craters….”

      That is exactly what is happening in my area (Irvine, Ca).

      Of course, frantic emails from the REIConplex want to lead you to believe this area is still ‘on fire’…

      No, it isn’t, Mr./Mrs. REIConplex, the fire hoses are everywhere.

      Another great statistics textbook example of why the REIConplex refuses to cite mean values along with the median.

  8. ‘The wave of stimulus aimed at reviving China’s housing market — billions in bank loans, interest rate cuts and support for developers — has done little to help Echo sell her home near Shanghai. The media worker has received only four nibbles from potential buyers in six months, and is considering a 10% cut to her asking price of 3.3 million yuan ($460,000). She thinks this stagnant housing market, the worst in China’s modern history, will drag on for years’

    Echo is a short sighted perma bear who is giving it away. Is China’s predicament a result of relying on commie central planning to boost a flailing economy dragged down by the failures of globalist scum?

    Guess what? We’re doing the exact same thing in the US and all these silly countries with a queen on their money! And Israel. Heck it would be easier to throw a dart at the map to find a sh$t hole country that isn’t doing this. Just look at the US media: oh Jerry, make it stop, please we want to go back to the moon Alice! where we make gobs of money for doing nothing. Just how was this going to end?

  9. ‘Austin came in at No. 1 for the biggest price drop. In September, Realtor.com reports that the median home list price in the Austin metro was $558,275. That’s down 10.3% since June’

    How the mighty have fallen. In the 2000s’ it might have taken a year to crater this much, not 3 months. Remember all the articles about how ‘special’ Austin was. Shortage! So what would Austin UHS say if given the chance to go back in time, no boom no bust? Click yer ruby slippers!

    No chance Dorothy. You had yer boom, enjoy the bust. You can’t say you weren’t warned.

    1. There were several Austin relitters who back around March were practically guaranteeing that Austin would never go down, that is was a permanent boomtown. You should do a blog on them.

    2. “No chance Dorothy. You had yer boom, enjoy the bust. You can’t say you weren’t warned.”

      – Asset bubbles always caused by cheap $. In this case from Central Banks and fiat currency. Monopoly $.
      – 30 yr. Mortgage rates 7.05% yesterday. Cheap $ is gone, but the inflation remains, so we’re got that goin’ for us. 😊
      – Asset bubbles always burst.
      This time it’s 2000 + 2008 + bonds; The Everything Bubble, aka The Central Bank bubble.
      – No one could have seen it coming. 😫
      – Centrally-planned, command and control economics always fails. Think CCP China now, or (former) USSR then.
      – USSA on same glide path.
      – Hey Venezuela! How’s that workin’ out for ya?

  10. ‘Everything just kind of shifted starting probably at the end of Spring, beginning of Summer.’

    You keep using that word “shifted.” I don’t think that means what you think it means.

  11. All of the markets had peaked either in March or April, Palacios Jr. noted. Los Angeles, declined by 11% from its peak. San Francisco, declined by 11% from its peak. San Diego, declined 9% from its peak. San Jose, declined 8% from its peak.

    Is that a lot?

  13. “Since 2017 so-called multiple-property owners have been the largest group of buyers of Ontario real estate. This cohort has grown in recent years and they behave differently from other owners in a number of ways that appear to describe some of the features real estate investing defined by the popular acronym BRRR: Buy, rent, renovate and refinance.

    Die, speculator scum.

  14. ‘There’s a good chunk of investors that might get wiped out on this. … There’s losers already happening, I’ve seen it personally, people in my network are folding businesses.’”

    Just die already, speculator scum. Houses are for living in, not speculative malinvestment using central bank funny money.

  15. “Investors can now obtain 3% returns on their bank deposits, without any risk.

    What kind of moron “investor” wants a 3% return when real inflation is 17-20%?

    1. Inflation in double digits and gold is FALLING. Scuttlebutt is that big companies like JP Morgan and BoA have been manipulating the spot price of paper metals, both gold and silver, downwards for decades. At first they did it to profit on the shorts. Now they are doing it to make money on the shorts out the front door, AND to load out cheap physical metal into the back door.

      1. They can play all the games they want. When speculators get margin calls, they have to sell real assets.

    2. “when real inflation is 17-20%?”

      The problem with that notion is aggregate wages and salaries aren’t inflating at that rate.

      Got price rigging and market fixing?

    3. What exactly is the low risk alternative? buy stocks? buy bonds (not treasuries), buy real estate? buy metals? Where do you as a non-moron go with your investment funds?

      1. “Where do you as a non-moron go with your investment funds?”

        If you have other sources of income there are TIPS, but beware of tax considerations. Then wait for the inflection point in the NASDAQ; technology is our future. In the mean time, read a book. At a minimum a chapter per day to keep those frontal lobes supple. Lastly, exercise, even a 30-minute walk. Well, that’s my formula.

  16. Tel Aviv is one huge urban renewal building site with denser, high-rise construction the order of the day, while in north Tel Aviv there are still land reserves for tens of thousands of new apartments.”

    How are the neocons going to get their Greater Israel if white Christian males are leaving our “woke” military in droves, or refusing to enlist in the Armed Forces of a Democrat-Bolshevik regime that hates them?

  17. Bloomberg Economics estimates about 2.8 billion square meters of real estate is currently sitting empty — an area 47 times the size of Manhattan.”

    China has 50 million vacant apartments. The USA has 66 million Biden voters who yearn to live under Communism. I see a match made in heaven.

  18. The crater comes to Cornwall, UK.

    Houses in Cornwall are set to undergo the biggest price drop in England as mortgage rates soar and demand from second home buyers dries up following Covid ‘staycation’ boom

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11308033/House-prices-Cornwall-plunge-mortgage-rates-soar-second-home-buyer-demand-dries-up.html

    House prices in Cornwall could plunge as the county recorded one of England’s largest drops in demand from second home buyers amid turmoil in the mortgage market.

    The end of the Covid ‘staycation’ trend coupled with higher mortgage rates since the government’s mini budget announcement has threatened the second home market.

    Demand has reportedly fallen in every UK county between June and September – but rural and coastal holiday properties have been hit the hardest, data shows.

      1. It’s a scenic paradise until a cat 4 hurricane comes through and rips off your roof and your home owners insurance company turns up insolvent.

        1. I lived a few years on a barrier island in Texas. It was probably 6 or 8 feet high sea level. Sometimes waves would tip over that. The Army Corp of Engineers spent millions every two years to dredge sand in the estuary and pump in onto the beach. In the old days shacks were built on stilts so you could go get what was left of them when they floated off. And sand prices were cheap! When I was there – timeshares and airboxes, super expensive. There was a metal detector shop I went in once. They had this book on searching local ‘towns’ that no longer existed. There were dozens that had been wiped off the map by hurricanes, some of them inland a bit. It’s just a matter of time.

          2. “…The Army Corp of Engineers spent millions every two years to dredge sand in the estuary and pump in onto the beach…”

            And, of course, guess who gets to foot the bill for all that wasted effort?…

            But, no worries, the Fed can subsidize with endless fake money…

            Nothing to see here, all move along now…

          3. Here’s the theory: dredge the ‘inter-coastal water way’ which was in the estuary, tote it around the end of the island to the beach and pump it out. A win win! But I never saw much boat traffic except a few barges here and there. Old timers would tell of aquatic paradise in the estuary. No more. And the sand on the beach could go away with one big thunderstorm, which would happen a few times a year. I came to the conclusion they whole effort was to support real estate sales by making the beach ‘pretty.’ And the Corp was not going to give up the gravy train.

            I don’t have any problem with these towns. As long as every one knows the risks and most importantly – not subsidized by guberment to live there. That includes the freaking insurance market. Dire consequences for the spring breakers I know, but they get so drunk it wouldn’t matter if they were somewhere else.

            BTW the towns that got obliterated in the past: nobody built them back. You couldn’t even tell they had ever been there.

          4. “…not subsidized by guberment to live there. That includes the freaking insurance market….”

            Would be interesting to know how all these subsidies got started.

            Wild guess: Some congressman and his buddies owned many of those beachfront homes.

            Naw, that wouldn’t happen! Congress represents the people!

          5. There are (were?) old fishing villages on Sanibel/Captiva that were turned into vacation cottages.

            I can understand a fishing village. People need to eat, and there are plenty of fish in the sea.

            Your million dollar mansion though? Eh.

  20. Heckova job, “Zimbabwe Ben” Bernanke, Yellen the Felon, & BlackRock Jay.

    US rents rose 7.8% in September – and are still up 25% since before the pandemic – as wages fail to keep the pace and renters ‘feel squeezed’: Cincinnati sees biggest rise, with Milwaukee rents slumping most

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11308993/US-rents-rose-7-8-September-25-pandemic.html

    US rents rose by an average of 7.8 percent in September, meaning they are still a whopping 25 percent up since before the pandemic.

    Wages have failed to keep pace, meaning that renters are ‘feeling the squeeze’ – despite the fact the new figure shows that price rises are actually starting to slow month-on-month.

    Cincinnati saw the biggest rise in rent prices at an increase of 26 percent, whereas renters in Milwaukee paid on average 15 percent less in rent last month.

    1. Gawd I can’t stand the Kardashian’s. They add nothing to a productive society, they are just leeches.

      2. the Kardashian’s

        A family of Satanists. They don’t hide it. You just need to know what to look for.

  23. Behind their facade of unity and earnest proclamations of “diversity is our strength,” internal Democrat-Bolshevik backbiting and intrigues are going to intensify as the various ethnic factions compete for control of lucrative patronage and graft rackets.

    LA City Council member Nury Martinez also ranted about Jewish colleagues in leaked racist audio where she called colleague’s black son a ‘little monkey’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11307531/LA-City-Council-member-Nury-Martinez-ranted-Jewish-colleagues-racist-audio.html

    LA City Council member Nury Martinez also ranted about Jewish colleagues in the racist audio where she described a colleague’s black son as a ‘little monkey’ and said of Los Angeles District Attorney George Gascon: ‘F*** that guy, he’s with the blacks.’

    A new portion of the incriminating recording from an October 2021 phone call was published by The Los Angeles Times on Tuesday morning.

    Martinez refers to Jewish colleagues as ‘judios’, Spanish for Jews. She was referring to former state assemblyman Richard Katz and his team.

  25. A reader sent these in:

    From a friend who works at a big bank: Thousands have reached the trigger rate and can’t afford their mortgage anymore. Many need to sell & will be renting, as rent is lower than their current interest payments.

    https://twitter.com/nasmadotali/status/1580234450952421376

    Ben Rabidoux

    13% of Canadians owned bitcoin in 2021 according to the BoC. Huge jump in ownership last year.

    https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/1580199097016799236

    Ben Rabidoux

    Really surprised that none of the big Cdn media outlets have done any investigative pieces on mortgage fraud in Canada. An undercover piece would not be difficult. A bigger issue than ppl think, and not hard to show it. DM me, I’ll lay it out.

    https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/1507908256991223812

    Ben Rabidoux

    THERE IT FKING IS!

    https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/1580321426812198912

    Whatever the CPI print tomorrow, 75 bp hike in Nov is set in stone. And Dec 75 bp is also set in stone except a global and major financial markets accident beforehand. Anyone counting on an organic pivot is a 🤡. Sep and Oct CPI are no longer v relevant but will stay hot.

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1580291615456776192

    87% of homebuyers take out a mortgage. Let me show you how a ton of these people, if they sell their house and buy another, will see their payment triple, maybe even quadruple. In other words, let me show you how these buyers totally disappear.

    https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1579923499157622784

    Homeowners: 2021: “You f$cking idiots should have bought sooner, enjoy being a renter forever.”

    2022: “Why is the Fed raising interest rates! People are hurting!”

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1580351185805987840

    BREAKING NEWS:

    THE BANK OF ENGLAND IS WARNING THAT UK HOUSEHOLDS FACE A STRAIN OVER DEBT REPAYMENTS SIMILAR TO PRE 2008 CRISIS

    History rhymes.

    https://twitter.com/GoldTelegraph_/status/1580245805906026497

    Fellas, if she has ‘Realtor 🏡’ in her bio she’s 50bps away from starting an OnlyFans

    https://twitter.com/SimpleJackCap/status/1580272347566997507

    1. Hey, I know these people. They had perfectly fine homes, but NEEDED to upsize while interest rates were low. They didn’t care if their mortgage payment was higher.
      Hilariously, some of these people are in construction. Will they still have jobs in a year? Who knows, but I really have no desire to deal with them if/when they come begging for money. -sigh-

    2. 13% of Canadians owned bitcoin in 2021 according to the BoC. Huge jump in ownership last year.

      I’m sure it seemed like a good idea at the time.

  28. SoCal home prices falling as mortgage rates increase
    CBS Los Angeles
    Oct 13, 2022 Joy Benedict reports on the Southern California housing market, where house prices appear to be falling after a lengthy period of inflation. Rising mortgage rates could be the root of the cause.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3khDcYpsj0

    2:16. This is the short sighted perma bear John. $50,000, yer giving it away!!

  30. Even our falsified, Soviet-style CPI inflation stats can’t conceal the destruction of the 99%’s purchasing power as Brandon & the Fed propel us down the road to Venezuela del Norte.

    Core inflation hits a new 40-year high of 6.6% in a troubling sign that higher prices are sticking – even as total inflation dips slightly to 8.2%

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11310209/Little-sign-relief-expected-September-inflation-data.html

    Inflation in the US remained painfully high in September, and showed signs of becoming deeply entrenched throughout the economy, new data show.

    The Commerce Department’s latest consumer price index report on Thursday showed that core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 6.6 percent in September from a year ago.

  31. Is it safe to assume that inflation is contained at this point, and interest rates will not go up further from current levels?

    1. The Financial Times
      US inflation
      US consumer prices continue to rise sharply despite Fed rate increases
      Persistence of high inflation maintains pressure on Biden administration ahead of midterm elections
      A shopper inside a grocery store in San Francisco. The rise in inflation has overshadowed a swift recovery out of the coronavirus pandemic
      James Politi and Lauren Fedor in Washington and Kate Duguid in New York 22 minutes ago

      The US consumer price index rose at a pace of 8.2 per cent last month compared to September 2021, in new data likely to cement perceptions that Washington has failed to bring down inflation before November’s midterm elections.

      According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the increase in the CPI last month was little changed from the 8.3 per cent annual rise recorded in August — and will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to proceed with aggressive monetary tightening.

      The core CPI measure, which strips out volatile energy and food costs, rose by 6.6 per cent on an annual basis last month, faster than the 6.3 per cent rate in August, a sign that underlying inflationary pressures were still accelerating.
      …

      1. 72/6.6 = 10.9 years

        That’s how long it takes for a dollar to lose half of its real value at a 6.6 inflation rate. And yet the dollar is doing better than almost every other asset class.

        Where should one stash cash when the world is crumbling?

          1. You can get rid of 50 percent of your purchasing power by HODLing cash for just over a decade.

    2. The Financial Times
      Markets Briefing Equities
      US stock futures and Treasuries slide after hot inflation report
      Consumer price growth in world’s biggest economy higher than Wall Street forecast
      A shopping basket full of groceries in a store in San Francisco
      Market participants have scrutinised reports on US price growth and employment for signs of how far and fast the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy
      Harriet Clarfelt in London
      9 minutes ago

      Wall Street stock futures and US government bonds sold off on Thursday as a hotter than expected inflation report fuelled concerns that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates more aggressively.

      Contracts tracking the broad S&P 500 slid 1.8 per cent ahead of the New York opening bell, while those tracking the Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.7 per cent. Europe’s regional Stoxx 600 lost 0.7 per cent, after Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed 1.9 per cent lower.

      US government bonds also came under pressure, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note adding 0.1 percentage point to 4 per cent and the two-year yield — which is sensitive to interest rate expectations — rising 0.16 percentage points to 4.44 per cent. Bond yields rise as their prices fall.
      …

  32. Contrast this real general to the bemedaled perfumed princes at the Pentagon cravenly pushing their globalist puppetmasters’ agendas.

    French General Pays Tribute to the Unvaccinated: ‘They Embody the Best of Humanity, They Are Superheroes’

    https://rairfoundation.com/french-general-pays-tribute-to-the-unvaccinated-they-embody-the-best-of-humanity-they-are-superheroes/

    In a powerful letter making waves across Europe, French General Christian Blanchon praised citizens who refused the experimental Covid “vaccines” injections. Despite years of pressure campaigns, discriminatory policies, social exclusion, loss of income, threats, and being blamed for other’s deaths, the General thanked the “unvaccinated” for their strength, courage, and leadership:

    Even if I were fully vaccinated, I would admire the unvaccinated for standing up to the greatest pressure I have ever seen, including from spouses, parents, children, friends, colleagues, and doctors.

    People who have been capable of such personality, courage, and such critical ability undoubtedly embody the best of humanity.

  35. 2022 CA election: Are San Francisco voters moving to the center? New poll suggests they could be
    ABC7 News Bay Area
    Oct 12, 2022 The poll — which surveyed 900 San Francisco voters one month before the midterm election — found that residents frustrated with homelessness, crime and housing, are increasingly open to supporting more centric policies to try to combat these issues.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozrKt3gxkYk

    2 minutes.

  37. Original content from Revolver News.

    Behold, the Regime Unveils Its New Catchphrase for All Political Dissent: “Stochastic Terrorism” (10/12/2022):

    “Trannying children, it turns out, may finally have been a bridge too far. In an impressive display of political evolution, American patriots in 2022 are realizing that they don’t have to roll over and submit to every new sociocultural demand of the ruling class. Parents and lawmakers are fighting back, loudly, against efforts to transform their children into mutilated freak shows. Champions like Daily Wire’s Matt Walsh and Libs of TikTok are exposing hospitals’ involvement in the child mutilation racket, and they’re inspiring lawmakers to take action and get the practice banned.

    But the left didn’t become culturally hegemonic without knowing how to win a fight. And they know the best maxim for victory is this: instead of winning an argument, it’s better to prevent the argument from happening at all.

    And earlier this month, several recently-skinsuited institutions stepped up to do just that in a letter to Merrick Garland.”

    https://www.revolver.news/2022/10/stochastic-terrorism-new-regime-catchphrase-for-political-dissent/

    Remember, when you buy a house, your property taxes are paying to promote pedophilia and child mutilation in the public schools.

    Your money is paying for it.

    You don’t have any choice about it.

    And if you don’t like it, you’re getting sent to the January 6th gulag.

  39. Sad trombone boo hoo New York Times.

    The Jan. 6 Committee Has Been Almost Wholly Ineffective (10/13/2022):

    “The House Jan. 6 committee, which reconvenes on Thursday for its ninth and likely final hearing, has been assiduous in its research, artful in its cinematography and almost wholly ineffective in shifting views about the storming of the U.S. Capitol in 2021 by a pro-Trump crowd.

    A Monmouth University poll taken this summer during the committee’s hiatus found public opinion largely unchanged — even calcified, to use a word that has lately come into vogue among American political scientists. The 65 percent of Americans who in late June remembered Jan. 6 as a “riot” had become 64 percent a month later when the summer hearings ended. Twenty-nine percent thought Joe Biden had been fraudulently elected before, and 29 percent did after.”

    https://archive.ph/zoolU

    Joe “it’s shower time, Ashley” Biden did not win the 2020 election.

    Trump won 2020.

    1. More from globalist sh*trag the Washington Post.

      5 big questions left for the Jan. 6 committee (10/12/2022):

      “The House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection is set to hold what its members say is likely to be its final public hearing laying out new evidence Thursday.

      And given that, and the fact that it’s been nearly three months since the last one — time the committee had to chase down a series of leads crucial to the central questions of the probe — it could be a significant one.”

      https://archive.ph/DDcWW

      The 2020 election was stolen.

      1. Even more from anti-American The Guardian.

        US midterms 2022: the key candidates who threaten democracy (10/11/2022):

        “There are several races on the ballot this fall that will have profound consequences for American democracy. In several states, Republican candidates who doubt the election 2020 election results, or in some cases actively worked to overturn them, are running for positions in which they would have tremendous influence over how votes are cast and counted. If these candidates win, there is deep concern they could use their offices to spread baseless information about election fraud and try to prevent the rightful winners of elections from being seated.”

        https://archive.ph/03gb3

        The 2020 election was stolen.

        I have not seen a single 2022 midterm election campaign ad, because I don’t watch broadcast or cable TeeVee.

        Joe Biden will never be the legitimately elected president of the United States.

        And Merrick Garland does not have the legitimate authority to prosecute anything.

        This isn’t your country, globalists.

        It’s not your country.

      2. Another don’t believe your own eyes and ears January 6 article from the Washington ComPost written by Philip Hump.

        “The 2020 election was stolen”

        Where does Ray Epps go to get his apology?

        Analysis by Philip Bump
        National columnist
        May 6, 2022 at 10:18 a.m. EDT

        Finally, an answer emerged: It was sparked by the Deep State that had been opposed to Trump all along. And not just “the deep state” in the abstract but, particularly, as embodied in one man: Ray Epps.

        Epps, a Trump supporter who was part of the crowd at the Capitol that day, became a shorthand for federal efforts to stoke the riot, mentioned on Fox News and in Congress. Federal investigators couldn’t comment on the case, leaving the House select committee investigating the attack as the sole body that could help clear Epps’s name, which it tried to do — only to be cast as a partisan coverup effort. This week, though, the New York Times published new details of what happened that day, making clear that Epps was not culpable for the riot.

        https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/06/another-effort-distance-trump-jan-6-crumbles/

  41. Who Benefits THE MOST In This Real Estate Market? – Canadian Real Estate Market
    Chan Real Estate Group
    Oct 12, 2022 It’s no secret that the Canadian Real Estate Market has shifted since the peak in February 2022. Home prices are down, interest rates are up, bidding wars are no longer the norm, and it is taking a little longer to sell a home.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3K2I5x4NO4

    2 minutes. Is 300k a lot?

  43. Staggering Vaccine Facts Now Going Mainstream

    The bleep is COVID19 VACCINE. Why is everyone not shouting this out and arresting these people to stop this agenda instead of allowing them to bully us all.

    Note: They will not be arrested. Because: Population reduction is the agenda. The Chief Justice of the United States, and all those in the rest of the world who hold these key positions, have been informed of this civilian killing agenda. Otherwise, all these child-lovers and murderers would have been locked up long ago.. right?

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/l3LdqCNwm21A/

    1:15.

      1. “Where are they getting that money?”

        Now I’m just spitballing but I would guess that it’s coming from the money you pay into Social Security but will never receive.

      2. Where are they getting that money?

        Given our ever escalating “Standing with Ukraine” (what will we blow up next?) there might not be a Social Security Administration anymore on New Years Day.

  46. jeff
    October 12, 2022 at 5:53 pm
    Wow you are good.
    Yes, as I found out recently from one of my older sisters, 63 years ago tomorrow my Irish grandmother gave my Irish mother 2 shots of whiskey before my Irish father whisked her off to the hospital (is it any wonder I landed in rehab at 28) to give birth to their fifth and final child, me. 🙂

    Happy Birthday Jeff 🥳
    That’s what they did back in those days, and when the babies started to teethe, they’d rub whiskey on their gums. I remember being very sick and some family member trying to push a hot toddy on me (blah!). OTOH, I took Nyquil for a cold and ended up with the spins. No idea it was so boozy. In our pub-owning days, it was rough going with the flow, but I got used to it 😏

    I hope you have a wonderful day 🤗

  47. Jeremy Siegel: If the Fed waits for core inflation to hit 2%, it’ll drive economy into depression
    CNBC Television
    Oct 13, 2022 Jeremy Siegel, professor at the Wharton School, joins ‘Halftime Report’ to discuss if today’s CPI data vindicates those who believe inflation hasn’t peaked, Siegel’s thoughts around the housing market, and more.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9FYOvHqBO8

    3:52.

  50. “The order extends the number of early voting days in the three counties and authorizes election supervisors to designate additional early voting locations, steps that allow voters to cast ballots at any polling place in their registered county from Oct. 24 through Election Day, Nov. 8. Election supervisors can also relocate or consolidate polling places if necessary.

    It also waives training requirements for poll workers and suspends a signature requirement for voters requesting to have a mail ballot sent to an address that is different from the one election officials have on file.”

    https://nypost.com/2022/10/13/gov-ron-desantis-eases-voting-rules-in-florida-counties-struck-by-ian/

      2. IDK about RINO, but tuchus kisser fo sho. One group should not be regarded above all others. Maybe it’s just part of going along to get along in Fla.

  52. ‘Zillow, Realtor.com, and John Burns Real Estate Consulting, all noted price drops’

    Damn yer short sighted perma bear eyes I say!

    1. The new world reserve currency (will KILL the US dollar) – BRICS
      Sorelle Amore Finance
      Oct 13, 2022

      This will be the world’s new reserve currency, and probably end the U.S. dollar forever. Have you heard about BRICS? Well if not, you’ll likely be hearing a lot more about them in the near future.

      BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, and is an economic alliance of nations designed to be a direct competitor to the G7. Comprising the world’s most powerful developing economies, BRICS is currently making some big moves to create a new form of money, which is likely designed to topple the US dollar from its spot.

      Economics and finance are complicated subjects. However, it’s clear to see from these early pros and cons just how powerful a BRICS currency would be. And how likely, it could easily remove the economic superiority of the United States, and the West as a whole.

      0:00 – The US dollar is over
      0:34 – The G7 rules the world’s money
      1:43 – BRICS and its new money
      4:50 – How BRICS money would work
      6:53 – When Libya threatened the Euro
      9:01 – Some final thoughts

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EiJxEsGE7Mk

      11 minutes.

      1. Interesting concept, that the BRICs would sacrifice themselves for each other to save a currency that doesn’t yet exist.

  54. “Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy the celebrity endorsed dictator of the most corrupt country in Europe”

    Tucker Carlson

  56. Cryptocurrency
    Investing
    Banks
    Real Estate
    Finance ·Ray Dalio
    ‘Ridiculously stupid’ economic policies have the U.S. hurtling toward a ‘perfect storm’ of economic pain, Ray Dalio says
    BY Tristan Bove
    October 12, 2022 at 12:44 PM PDT
    Ray Dalio, billionaire and founder of Bridgewater Associates LP, speaking on stage in 2019
    Ray Dalio sees a concerning triad of crises ahead for the U.S. economy.
    Patrick T. Fallon—Bloomberg/Getty Images

    The U.S. economy’s paradigm shift away from the era of low interest rates and “free money” is going to be painful, according to billionaire investor and Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio.

    The Federal Reserve has a difficult task ahead of it: Bring down soaring inflation without triggering a severe and prolonged recession. But the central bank may have its work cut out for it as it deals with what Dalio calls a “perfect storm” of crises.

    “Because of the size of the issues we are dealing with, it’s not something we are used to because of its magnitude,” Dalio said in an interview with Bloomberg Wednesday at the Greenwich Economic Forum in Connecticut.

    Dalio, who last week ceded control of his $150 billion investment firm, said that the U.S. is facing a triad of conflicting challenges: A bad economic situation caused by rising debt levels and “ridiculously stupid” low interest rates, political infighting between Democrats and Republicans, and the economic consequences of the Ukraine War.

    “Traditionally those three things are the perfect storm. They all affect each other,” Dalio said.
    Conflicting crises

    To bring down inflation, the Federal Reserve has resorted to an aggressive series of interest rate hikes—five so far this year with more planned for 2023.

    It’s a reversal from the extremely low interest rates the Fed maintained throughout most of the pandemic, which Dalio called “ridiculously stupid.”

    The Fed’s low interest rates during the pandemic and large government stimulus programs left behind lots of government debt, creating a “bubble” in the U.S. economy, Dalio said. The central bank is now rapidly trying to shrink this bubble by putting the brakes on the economy, but the process will inevitably cause “pain” to markets.

    “They’ve produced this giant lurch forward, and now will raise interest rates to the point that there’s enough economic pain and financial market pain to deal with that,” he said.

    And while bringing down inflation fast is the Fed’s priority, the central bank also has to contend with two conflicts—one domestic and one international—that threaten to strain the economy even more.

    Dalio said there are “irreconcilable differences” between the left- and right-wing political parties leading the U.S. today, and this has contributed to a huge wealth gap and socioeconomic crisis that the country hasn’t seen since the early 20th century.

    Additionally, the Ukraine War threatens to place an even larger burden on the U.S. economy as the Fed navigates its way out of inflation. The war has so far cost countries allied with NATO, including the U.S., around $8 trillion, Dalio said, with reconstruction costs likely to keep piling onto the U.S. economy’s tab.

    “It’s not like we’re going to stop the spending, so you have to achieve that financial balance in some kind of a way,” he added.
    …
    https://fortune.com/2022/10/12/ray-dalio-says-us-headed-for-perfect-storm-economic-crises/

    1. The Financial Times
      Federal Reserve
      Hopes of Fed pivot fade in face of alarming inflation figures
      Economists say US central bank unlikely to soften aggressive tightening programme any time soon
      US Federal Reserve building
      Economists say soaring inflation is likely to push the US central bank to continue its supersized rate rises until there is more clear-cut evidence price pressures are easing
      Colby Smith in Washington
      3 hours ago

      For a central bank looking for signs that the worst inflation problem in decades is starting to slowly recede, Thursday’s report on US consumer price growth was about as bad as it gets.

      While the annual pace was little changed at 8.2 per cent, the index showed another alarming jump on a monthly basis, suggesting underlying inflationary pressures are still accelerating. Stripping out volatile items such as food and energy, the “core” CPI measure was up 6.6 per cent compared to the same time last year.

      The larger than expected increase leaves the Federal Reserve with little choice but to press ahead with a fourth consecutive 0.75 percentage point increase at its upcoming policy meeting in early November.
      …

    2. The latest inflation report was the worst-case scenario for Biden, the Fed, and the stock market
      Ben Winck
      29 minutes ago
      Joe Biden Hunger Conference
      resident Joe Biden speaks during the White House Conference on Hunger, Nutrition, and Health at the Ronald Reagan Building in Washington, DC, September 28, 2022. OLIVER CONTRERAS/AFP via Getty Images
      – Inflation surged more than expected in September, raising new questions around the economy’s future.
      – The Fed’s anti-inflation efforts haven’t worked, fueling speculation on rising interest rates.
      – The White House could suffer ahead of midterms while Fed tightening could continue to affect stocks.
      …
      https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-outlook-biden-impact-september-inflation-cpi-fed-hikes-recession-2022-10

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