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They’re Like Sharks That Can Smell Blood In The Ocean 10 Miles Away

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Austin Texas, home-builder Leonard Bullard said he’s reluctant to cut prices more than 10% on a $5 million house. ‘We at least need to break even, right?’ he said. ‘Otherwise, we’re paying to sell houses.’ ‘There’s a glut of projects stacking up,’ said Chester Wilson of Greater Austin Builders, which stopped buying land last year. Mr. Wilson and his partners recently sold a teardown to another builder for a $17,000 loss.”

“Locally, the Raleigh market is ranked second in the nation for pending new home sales. ‘Builders do not want to betray buyers who might have bought at higher prices,’ said Gian Hasbrock, president of Wowism, a firm specializing in residential new construction sales. ‘Builders are reticent about lowering final sales prices, because it makes their whole marketing plan, which is to create a customer for life, a raving fan, self-destruct, because if I just bought a house for $50,000 more than what you’re currently selling homes for, I will feel terrible about my purchase, and there’s no way I would recommend you.'”

“‘We’re really seeing a correction in the whole market,’ said Tim Warren, whose company — The Warren Group — tracks real estate data across Massachusetts. ‘The real estate market was absolutely crazy for two straight years, and now it’s coming back down to earth. When prices go up faster than people’s income goes up, then you’re going to hit a wall someplace, and we’re starting to do that now.'”

“The Bay Area housing rollercoaster continues. Housing prices are finally dropping, in some places by more than $200,000. Mortgage rates hit a two-decade high. ‘That’s the unfortunate thing,’ said Lisa Faria, president of the Santa Clara County Association of Realtors. Faria said higher rates also make it tougher on sellers. ‘You bought your home or re-financed at 2%, and now we’re over seven,’ said Faria.”

“Ian Baker lives in Chandler and has been looking to buy a new home up north near Deer Valley for about a year now. ‘Sellers definitely don’t have the upper hand that they did. If they’re looking to sell just now or in the past 90 days, they definitely missed the mark on where we were at. I think that kind of ended in June and July,’ said Baker’s realtor, Bonnie Kingcannon. ‘I think that as long as the government can kind of settle things down and we don’t continue on this fast pace interest rate, we’re going to be ok. If it continues to hike, we’re going to be in big trouble.'”

“Everyone knows that housing in Black Diamond is booming, but what is happening in Enumclaw and Buckley? In January 2020, the median house sale price was $601,000. By the following year, it was $660,000. And in January 2022, its was $730,000. Since last May, prices have been dropping, from a median of $888,000 (a nearly 14% increase over the previous May) to just over $802,000 in September. ‘I put my crystal ball away, because I don’t think it works anymore. I don’t even take it out of the closet to look at it,’ said Alan Smith, a broker with John L. Scott.”

“The Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate by another 0.5% Oct. 26. ‘With every increase comes more doom and gloom,’ said Terese Cairns, a commercial broker. ‘We have people who are just freaking out about it, even though it’s not the end of the world. They (buyers) are saying: ‘Oh my god, things are going up. We can’t qualify now. Nobody wants to pay retail pricing right now because they think they’re going to be able to pick something up for cheap,’ Cairns said. ‘They’re like sharks that can smell blood in the ocean 10 miles away. They’re thinking some of these guys are not going to be able to complete on some of these deals and we’re going to have some foreclosures and we’re going to get some really good bargains because people are going to be in trouble.'”

“‘On the commercial side, it’s a disaster because nobody wants to do anything,’ she said. ‘Even developers who have cash to purchase properties – they want to leverage it as much as they can and they need construction financing if they want to build anything. They’re looking at 6% or 7% construction financing. With prices coming down, with downward pressure on pricing, it’s going to be difficult for them to see any (profit) margins.'”

“Prospective home buyers could pay $53,000 less for properties after house prices tumbled in one of the fastest ever declines. The latest Domain report shows house prices in Australian capitals fell 4.9 per cent in the last quarter from a peak in March. It was the fastest quarterly fall on record. The median house price is sitting at about $1,022,000, down by $53,000 from the June quarter but still 21.3 per cent higher than the pandemic’s low of $999,000.”

“Apart from Adelaide, house prices in every capital dropped with the Sydney, Melbourne, and Canberra markets seeing the speediest downturns ever recorded. ‘We’re going through housing market conditions that many buyers and sellers have never experienced in their lifetime,’ Domain’s chief economic researcher Nicola Powell said.”

“In a Chinese real estate market where selling not-yet-built homes has been the norm, a plague of unfinished construction projects has turned off buyers and harmed the wider economy. ‘I’d be too scared to buy pre-sale property if I’m going to buy another home,’ said Ma Lin, who lives in the inland city of Zhengzhou. Ma, 24, bought a pre-sale condominium in late 2020 for 1.6 million yuan (US$219,000 at current rates). The transfer had been slated for September 2023, and Ma felt secure because the project was backed by a major real estate developer. But construction work stalled in the autumn of 2021 because the developer ran into funding trouble.”

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This Post Has 113 Comments

    1. Citizen! Our Disinformation Governance Board, during its short yet memorable existence under beloved songbird Comrade Nina, definitively established that Joe Biden and his most erudite VP got 81 million votes! Approved fact checkers (D) at trustworthy media outlets and designated arbiters of truth such as CNN and WaPo verified the public adulation for Comrade Biden exceeded even that of Comrade Kim Jong-Un, while the wit and wisdom of Comrade Kamala captivated the masses and rallied them around the brilliant vision of Build Back Better. If you continue to deny these undisputed facts, citizen, this makes you, ipso facto, an insurrectionist and extremist MAGA Republican threat to our democracy! (And the children.) Perhaps a boxcar ride to a re-education camp would serve to correct your ideological deviancy from such Deplorable and dangerous sentiments? Forward!

      1. Citizen! As part of your ideological rehabilitation, you will organize Maoist Struggle Sessions at your job site and sing this song daily to your co-workers. If you fail to hit the high notes, gender reassignment surgery will be necessary. Forward!

        Nina Jankowicz’s Viral Mary Poppins singing

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqZadh7xCR8

      1. These H1B visa Ukrainian entrepreneurs that ply their skills in the San Fernando Valley have my enthusiastic vote.

  2. ‘We at least need to break even, right?’ he said. ‘Otherwise, we’re paying to sell houses’

    You’ll be bankrupt soon Leo. Enjoy the bust. Does anyone remember when Austin was the redhotness? Maybe 4 or 5 months ago.

    1. In the first phase of the crash, prices are sticky because home builders and many sellers will try every trick in the book not to lower prices. A home builder can give a buyer 50k to buy down the mortgage rate and the sold price doesn’t reflect it. Likewise a lot of sellers will start to throw in repairs or closing costs which are not reflected in the sold price. There is a lot of this going on right now. In real terms prices are probably dropping twice as fast as the anyone is admitting in the media.

  3. ‘They’re like sharks that can smell blood in the ocean 10 miles away. They’re thinking some of these guys are not going to be able to complete on some of these deals and we’re going to have some foreclosures and we’re going to get some really good bargains because people are going to be in trouble’

    That’s the spirit! Bottom feeders unite!

  4. Ben Jones
    October 27, 2022 at 3:00 pm
    Katie Smollet
    Kari Lake
    Oct 27, 2022

    https://youtu.be/DzYMA20f8QU

    1:21.

    Katie Hobbs Blamed Kari Lake For Inciting Campaign HQ Break-In, But Democrat Policies Were To Blame

    by Kelen McBreen
    October 27th 2022,

    Democrat Arizona gubernatorial candidate Katie Hobbs looks like a total fool after jumping to conclusions and insinuating her GOP challenger Kari Lake incited someone to vandalize her campaign headquarters.

    The Drudge Report ran a headline reading, “Hobbs Blasts Kari Lake for ‘Inciting Threats’ After Campaign HQ Burglarized…”

    On Thursday, CNN reporter Kate Sullivan asked Kari Lake about the Hobbs campaign headquarters robbery and if she had a response to the Hobbs team insinuating she was responsible.

    Later on Thursday, Phoenix police announced the arrest of 36-year-old illegal alien Daniel Mota Dos Reis in connection with the Hobbs campaign headquarters break-in.

    Dos Reis was recognized by an officer viewing security camera footage of the Hobbs HQ theft because the suspect was arrested previously that same day for a different burglary.

    The situation is ironic on many levels, with one being that the man is illegal and Kari Lake is strong and outspoken about strengthening the border while Hobbs is weak on immigration.

    It’s also ironic because the homeless illegal immigrant was released from police custody hours after committing a separate crime thanks to soft-on-crime Democrat policies like the ones supported by Hobbs.

    Lastly, in the most shocking example of irony, the suspect allegedly describes himself on Facebook as a pro-mask “Democrat,” according to Western Journal.

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/katie-hobbs-blamed-kari-lake-for-inciting-campaign-hq-break-in-but-democrat-policies-were-to-blame/

    1. ‘in the most shocking example of irony, the suspect allegedly describes himself on Facebook as a pro-mask ‘Democrat’

      Yer a democrat even though you can’t vote. This pro mask crap is not fear. It’s something else:

      Stockholm syndrome is a coping mechanism to a captive or abusive situation. People develop positive feelings toward their captors or abusers over time. This condition applies to situations including child abuse, coach-athlete abuse, relationship abuse and sex trafficking.

    2. “Dos Reis was recognized by an officer viewing security camera footage of the Hobbs HQ theft because the suspect was arrested previously that same day for a different burglary.”

      Without enforceable laws there’s no order.

  5. ‘I’d be too scared to buy pre-sale property if I’m going to buy another home,’ said Ma Lin, who lives in the inland city of Zhengzhou. Ma, 24, bought a pre-sale condominium in late 2020 for 1.6 million yuan (US$219,000 at current rates)’

    That’s interesting Ma, cuz that what you ‘own.’ Well, it was cheaper than renting.

  6. ‘Sellers definitely don’t have the upper hand that they did. If they’re looking to sell just now or in the past 90 days, they definitely missed the mark on where we were at. I think that kind of ended in June and July…I think that as long as the government can kind of settle things down and we don’t continue on this fast pace interest rate, we’re going to be ok. If it continues to hike, we’re going to be in big trouble’

    Jerry is breaking it off in yer a$$ Bonnie. BTW Chandler is just one of the 17 sh$tholes around Pheonix.

  7. Re: When prices go up faster than people’s income goes up

    All this is smoke and mirrors since everything is measured by a fiat currency created out of thin air with zero intrinsic value (like the stock certificate of a defunct company) and has lost more than 90% of its purchasing power since 1971 after Nixon reneged on Bretton Woods.

    In other words,

    It is a tale.
    Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
    Signifying nothing . . .

  9. ‘Builders do not want to betray buyers who might have bought at higher prices,’ said Hasbrock, president of Wowism, a firm specializing in residential new construction sales. ‘Builders are reticent about lowering final sales prices, because it makes their whole marketing plan, which is to create a customer for life, a raving fan, self-destruct, because if I just bought a house for $50,000 more than what you’re currently selling homes for, I will feel terrible about my purchase, and there’s no way I would recommend you.’

    Gian, meet Leo:

    ‘he’s reluctant to cut prices more than 10% on a $5 million house’

    Yeah, these clowns will bury yer a$$ over and over, walk away from the loans and not think twice.

  10. ‘We’re really seeing a correction in the whole market…The real estate market was absolutely crazy for two straight years, and now it’s coming back down to earth. When prices go up faster than people’s income goes up, then you’re going to hit a wall someplace, and we’re starting to do that now’

    Prices went up faster than incomes for well over a decade Tim. I don’t recall this perma bear opinion while you guys were hosing buyers all that time.

    You know, we haven’t heard from Thornberg in a while:

    ‘Housing prices are finally dropping, in some places by more than $200,000’

    via GIPHY

  11. ‘what is happening in Enumclaw and Buckley? In January 2020, the median house sale price was $601,000. By the following year, it was $660,000. And in January 2022, its was $730,000. Since last May, prices have been dropping, from a median of $888,000 (a nearly 14% increase over the previous May) to just over $802,000 in September’

    We hear a lot of jaw flappin about how bad is it going to be. These little sh$thole ‘boom towns’ are sinking like a turd in a well.

    1. “I put my crystal ball away, because I don’t think it works anymore. I don’t even take it out of the closet to look at it,’ said Alan Smith, a broker with John L. Scott.”

      Buckley and Enumclaw are in the middle of nowhere along a two lane highway that’s dangerous to drive in the winter due to darkness, snow and ice. That broker should be in jail.

      1. “And locally, those conditions are super-charged because Buckley and Enumclaw are some of the few places within a quick drive of Seattle or Tacoma that still have lots of land left to develop.”

        Quick drive lol! I’ve experienced the traffic between Tacoma and Seattle. Enumclaw is 42 miles from Seattle. That commute would probably be about 2 1/2 hours. Oh wait, everyone works from home from now on. Never mind!

      2. You guys remember pennymac don’t you? It’s where the countrywide crooks set up shop just as soon as the bubble popped.”

        Yep their office is 10 feet away from where I go into work , they have Halloween decorations up and smoke allot of cigarettes. I have noticed the parking lot isn’t very full but after corona who knows whats going on ? WFH ? laid off ?

        1. Workers at Pennymac complain they have software that tracks their mouse making sure they are doing something. besides smoking cigarettes.

    3. It’s okay, Jo-Jo the Clown. No one takes you seriously anymore.

      https://nypost.com/2022/10/27/jim-cramer-chokes-up-as-he-apologizes-for-pushing-meta-stock/

      Jim Cramer appeared to choke up during Thursday’s broadcast of CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” as the investor apologized to viewers for previously recommending they buy shares of Meta — which tumbled to their lowest levels in six years.

      “Let me say this,” a somber Cramer told the CNBC co-panelists in a clip that went viral on Twitter, addressing a Thursday rout in Meta shares that sent them plunging 25% in a single trading session.

    2. “The suspect used a hammer to assault the speaker’s husband, law enforcement sources told CNN. Paul Pelosi suffered from blunt force injuries in the attack, the Associated Press reported”

      So somebody went all Trini Lopez on Paul Pelosi.

      That old dude seems to get in a lot of trouble while his wife is out flying around on her broom.

      https://youtu.be/Kp1z8EzZ5Hs

      1. According to the AP he was wearing a Dr. Oz hat, Kari Lake shirt and yelled out “This is MAGA country!”

      2. Something seems fishy about the Pelosi thing. You’re telling me that a mega rich guy whose wife is third in line to the presidency has no security?

    3. “The suspect used a hammer to assault the speaker’s husband, left him with trauma injuries”

      Getting attacked in your own home by a hammer wielding assailant is a major league crime that deserves at least 25-yrs in a maximum security facility. No sympathy!

      2. I don’t know. Tiger Woods’ ex got away with it. Then again she used the 9-iron.

        Maybe Paul got Tigered?

  14. Globalist oligarchs seeing their Yellen Bux net worth plunge as true price discovery starts to catch up to the Fed’s asset bubbles & Ponzi markets – forgive my misty eyes.

    Amazon founder Jeff Bezos loses billions after Amazon share price plunge

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/wealth/amazon-founder-jeff-bezos-loses-billions-after-amazon-share-price-plunge/news-story/e5678f7a8abcfc3b376d02c28f83448d

    Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is set to see tens of billions wiped from his net worth following a horror share price plunge.

  16. Worser:

    Signed contracts to buy existing homes in the U.S. plunged more than expected in September as expensive borrowing costs push more entry-level homebuyers out of the market.

    The National Association of Realtors’ index of pending home sales dropped 31% in September compared with the same month a year ago, according to data released Friday. On a monthly basis, pending home sales plummeted 10.2% — far more than the 3.8% decline projected by Econoday’s consensus.

    The measure, a leading indicator of the housing market’s health, underscores how much activity has reversed this year with more buyers keeping to the sidelines and many would-be sellers thinking twice about listing.

    “Persistent inflation has proven quite harmful to the housing market,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “The Federal Reserve has had to drastically raise interest rates to quell inflation, which has resulted in far fewer buyers and even fewer sellers.”

    Contract signings decreased in every region from the previous month. Pending sales decreased 16.2% in the Northeast, 11.7% in the West, 8.8% in the Midwest, and 8.1% in the South. Sales under contracted retracted by double-digit percentages in each region versus a year ago.

    About 64,000 home purchase agreements fell through in August, which marks the second month in a row that cancellations have exceeded 15%, according to real estate brokerage Redfin. And 1 in 5 listings have had their prices reduced, Ratiu said.

    “Particularly as we go into the colder months,” Ratiu said, “sellers who hope to close a deal before year’s end should expect more flexibility in negotiations.”

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pending-home-sales-drop-september-140106924.html

    Pending is what to watch as it’s forward looking.

    1. The PTB want you to be fat and sick, so you will end up in an early grave. Now, how about some HFCS laden yummies? And a coupon for a box of donuts and a two liter soda if you get the latest booster!

  18. Liz Ann Sonders

    Woosh: August saw largest monthly decline in national home prices since March 2009 per S&P CoreLogic CS Index

    https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1585230183405158400

    Ben Rabidoux

    In the Greater Toronto Area, a metro region of nearly 6 MILLION people, there were a total of 45 *NEW* single-family homes sold by developers last month. In case you’re wondering the state of that industry at present…

    https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/1585064011300622336

    Ron Butler

    $500K Variable Rate Mortgages with increasing payments 30 year Amort:

    Feb 2022 Payment: $1712.59

    Nov 2022 Payment: $2773.83

    Again a massive difference

    If we thought RE in Canada was cold

    Winter was coming it just showed up

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1585273334731792385

    Fed can hike a lot more than other CBs. The structure the financial system in each country is different, thus the mechanism of policy transmission. Households in countries with floating rate mortgages feel the impact quickly, so their CBs can hike less to have an impact.

    https://twitter.com/FedGuy12/status/1585418504819200000

    Diane Swonk

    Housing is in a recession: Mortgage demand has plummeted to nearly half what it was a year ago and is at the lowest level since 1997. Home buyer and building are cratering and home values are decelerating according to Core-Logic index at fastest pace on record.

    https://twitter.com/DianeSwonk/status/1585247045593739266

    Diane Swonk

    High income households bought second homes, and investors speculators hoping to exploit the surge in demand for rentals and vacation rental also contributed to those gains. They are all disappearing and with that retreat we will also see a blow to rental incomes.

    https://twitter.com/DianeSwonk/status/1585247049376993280

    Air-B-and Bs are fragging down property values now. Sellers need OUT but buyers don’t want it if it is in a ‘hotel neighborhood.’

    https://twitter.com/Stimpyz1/status/1585751381356343296

    Peter Boockvar

    Due to the new reality for commercial real estate from a sharp rise in interest rates, let’s do some math in a thread:

    https://twitter.com/pboockvar/status/1585668825986613253

    If Putin spreads propaganda
    What’s this? Lmao

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1585756529525153792

    Wealth boom ends as #inflation hits the US middle class. In March, the avg real wealth of the American middle class—including home equity and other physical assets as well as retirement and other savings—peaked at $393,300, the highest it’s ever been.

    https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1585553890279395328

    Bloomberg

    It hasn’t been a great week for tech giants

    https://twitter.com/business/status/1585735733263876097

    Powell getting hit daily now.

    https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1585634524595036162

    Zuckerberg’s wealth has shrunk by $100 billion from its peak 1 year ago, the biggest wealth loss by one person in history

    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1585687199441457152

    Cramer is literally almost in tears over $META. Says he failed the viewers by being bullish on the name. Just got a hug live on air from David Faber. You can’t make this sh*t up.

    https://twitter.com/StealthQE4/status/1585621549507379200

    Listen to what the Fed says, and use your noggin. They dont want the balance sheet to be a policy tool. They want to go back to rates. This has been stated EXPLICITLY. They don’t want to expand the balance sheet except in the event of the event of a systemic event.

    https://twitter.com/Stimpyz1/status/1585427871203438593

    I wont say 1TN is wrong. Calm heads can prevail. But retail is getting greased up again to get corn holed with all this ‘pivot’ nonsense. Powell probably loves it, it makes boiling the frog easier. But ZIRP and QE are gone forever. Or 10 years, which ever happens first.

    https://twitter.com/Stimpyz1/status/1585317339339186176

    There is a rather widespread idea that landlords can keep raising rents to keep up with rising costs. They can only do that if they have leverage. But as tenants run out of scope to pay, rents begin to fall even in some of the most in demand markets.

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1585513603259826176

    The number of households disqualified from the mortgage market this year:

    For a $200K mortgage, -21 million households (meaning the potentially borrower pool is -25% smaller.)
    $600K, -17 million households (-59%)
    $1MM, -7.6 million households (-69%)

    https://twitter.com/EricFinnigan/status/1585684330260533248

    Low. Terrible on east coast. Some suppliers literally out of gas and diesel in northeast right now. Because of the 100 year old Jones Act, we can’t ship fuel to northeast from Texas .. have to import from Europe. Hard to believe but true.

    https://twitter.com/SullyCNBC/status/1585636748616294400

    China’s Property Crisis Is Fueling Record Loss in BEA Debt

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1585565217269977088

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    Superbly succinct.

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1585666381663584257

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    Remarkable what inhaling 1/3rd of MBS market can accomplish.

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1585682493440929793

    2. Remarkable what inhaling 1/3rd of MBS market can accomplish.

      Reply to:

      2 years ago: 30-yr mortgage rate was 2.80% & average new home price in the US was $395k.

      Today: 30-yr mortgage rate is 7.08% & average new home price is $518k.

      Result: $25k increase in down payment (assuming 20% down) & 114% increase in monthly payment (from $1,298 to $2,779).

  19. I’m curious about the latest bull party on Wall Street. Have they concluded that inflation is contained, raising hopes for a near term Fed pivot?

    1. A key US inflation gauge stayed at a high 6.2% in September
      By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER – AP Economics Writer Oct 28, 2022 Updated 1 hr ago

      WASHINGTON (AP) — A measure of inflation that is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve remained painfully high last month, the latest sign that prices for most goods and services in the United States are still rising steadily.

      Friday’s report from the Commerce Department showed that prices rose 6.2% in September from 12 months earlier, the same year-over-year rate as in August.

      Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core prices rose 5.1% last month from a year earlier. That’s faster than the 4.9% annual increase in August, though below a four-decade high of 5.4% reached in February.
      …
      https://www.wfmz.com/business/a-key-us-inflation-gauge-stayed-at-a-high-6-2-in-september/article_caf3647d-8b3c-5801-8347-8637659f3dde.html

    2. Treasury yields rise as Fed’s favorite inflation gauge and wage costs match forecasts
      Published Fri, Oct 28 2022 4:50 AM EDT
      Updated 47 Min Ago
      Alex Harring
      Sophie Kiderlin

      Treasury yields climbed on Friday as both the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauge of inflation and an employment cost index for September pretty much matched forecasts, signaling nothing to derail the central bank from imposing another three quarters percentage point rate hike on the economy at a policy meeting next week.

      The moves came after traders absorbed stronger-than-expected gross domestic product growth of 2.6% in the U.S., reported Thursday, together with a prices paid component suggesting a faint sign of easing inflation pressure, and overnight news from Europe that German expansion was higher than forecast while Italian inflation shot higher.

      The yield Friday on the 10-year Treasury

      stood at about 3.973%, up about 5 basis points, one day after the yield fell as much as 11 basis points on Thursday.

      The 2-year Treasury

      yield was last up by 7 basis points to 4.391%. It had fallen by around 12 basis points on Thursday.

      Yields and prices move in opposite directions and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/28/treasury-yields-rise-as-markets-digest-gdp-report-await-consumer-data.html

    3. Every so often the markets hand you a trade you can just do over and over and over. Shorting “pivot” rallies seems to be one of these.

    4. I guess it doesn’t matter if a Fed pivot really is in the Fed’s nearterm plans, so long as the HODLers agree that one is. It’s the bull religion that keeps the bubble aloft.

      1. Stocks Rise On The Non-Existent Fed Pivot Hopes
        Michael Kramer | Oct 26, 2022 03:39AM ET

        Stocks raced higher yesterday as markets believe the Fed is again pivoting. I’m sorry to say I think they will again be very disappointed because stocks don’t pay attention to the details.

        Fed Funds Futures have fallen by a whole ten bps since Thursday. Yes, ten bps to a peak rate of 4.9% from 5.0%. The last time the S&P 500 was trading around 3,850 Fed fund futures were pricing at the peak of 4.5%.
        …
        https://m.investing.com/analysis/stocks-rise-on-the-nonexistent-fed-pivot-hopes-200631514

      1. Exactly! These people are the winners and Musk is a loser of paying that kind of money for company that was substantially declining. Smartest person, right?

        In few days these people will be back in another company (goog, fb, nflx, etc.) censoring more.

          1. Chancellor McCormick from the Delaware Court of Chancery, who also has IIRC two other Tesla cases before her, was going to force the Twitter sale. It was far less costly this way and allowed Musk to avoid another damaging deposition.

    1. I hope those EV buses come with airliner style escape chutes, so everyone can get out if the battery pack catches fire.

      If someone gave me a free EV, I would sell it and while waiting to unload it I would park it as far as possible from my house.

  23. THE HOUSING MARKET IS IN TROUBLE!!!
    Premiered 15 hours ago This week I’m getting ready to leave out of town for Thunder Beach in Panama City Beach, FL. I have several things to do before we can leave though. I have a closing scheduled on one of my foreclosures that doesn’t go as planned.

    I wrote an offer on another foreclosure we have listed in Munford that is approved. Also, I did a few BPO’s in some very nice neighborhoods, which lets you know that the economy is making times REALLY tough for everyone!!!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_d90gMCcLCo

    16:25. Foreclosures in Florida?

    No!

    1. I looked checked on a stale listing yesterday and almost burst out listing.
      The first like: This home is 215 ft above sea level.

        1. The highest point in Florida is 345 ft above sea level.

          What I find hilarious is that whoever did that listing knows people are going to be scared to death after Ian and is desperately trying to get out of state money from equity locusts.

          It’s actually a lovely house. I’d pay a max of $250 for it. They want $390. No one from this area will pay $390 for that house.

    2. “You don’t have a lot of people horribly upside down in homes unless they bought a few months ago.” 🤣

      1. These sort of price moves in the 2000’s took a year, maybe two. This happened in San Diego since April.

          1. $1,189,900 3 bd 2ba 1,843 sqft
            Price cut: $50K (10/14)
            14796 Carmel Ridge Rd, San Diego, CA 92128

            https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/14796-Carmel-Ridge-Rd-San-Diego-CA-92128/16798519_zpid/

            Date Event Price
            10/14/2022 Price change $1,189,900 (-4%) $646/sqft

            9/30/2022 Price change $1,239,900 (-3.9%) $673/sqft

            9/21/2022 Listed for sale $1,290,000 (+66.5%) $700/sqft

            3/26/2018 Sold $775,000 $421/sqft

            3/6/2018 Listing removed $775,000 $421/sqft

            2/25/2018 Pending sale $775,000 $421/sqft

            2/25/2018 Listed for sale $775,000 (+19.8%) $421/sqft

            4/29/2004 Sold $647,000 (+65.9%) $351/sqft

            8/10/2001 Sold $390,000 (+35.7%) $212/sqft

            11/20/1998 Sold $287,500 (+27.8%) $156/sqft

            11/16/1993 Sold $225,000 $122/sqft

          2. Inside a $1,050,000 House in La Mesa, 91942 | San Diego Real Estate
            Oct 28, 2022 Welcome to another house tour in San Diego. Today, we’re taking a look at the childhood home of basketball legend, Bill Walton! If you’re moving to San Diego and looking for a good deal in the La Mesa neighborhood, 91942, then you need to check this one out.

            6919 Colorado Ave, La Mesa, CA 91942
            4 Bedrooms | 3 Bathrooms | 1626 SqFt | List Price: $1,050,000

            Home sweet home La Mesa. Lush backyard exterior and total remodeled interior. Open spacious floor plan is move in ready! This home lives like a single story but offers an additional downstairs 1bedroom/1bath w/separate entrance (that could be a AirBnB to generate income). New plumbing, upgraded electrical, new A/C-heater mini splits, new appliances including high-end full sized washer dryer, new windows, new floors, new baths, and new kitchen! Corner lot with tons of mature landscaping feels like your own secret garden. Spacious back deck is perfect for relaxing and/or entertaining. Cute neighborhood is close to Lake Murray, Cowles Mountain, shopping, dining and more! 15 mins to Downtown San Diego and the San Diego Zoo. 20 mins to the beach… And easy freeway access.

            0:00 – Intro
            1:29 – Inside the La Mesa house for sale
            7:17 – Final Remarks

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZuzYIS4MPU

            8:15.

          3. “6919 Colorado Ave, La Mesa, CA 91942”

            Most of that landscaping (jungle) would have to go, and a fabric layer installed to prevent weeds would be first on the list. Interior: Someone spent a small fortune on that remodel, but it looks cramped. Maybe the remodel should have been a two master bedrooms, which would enhance the place as a shared rental, e.g., two professionals, no kids. Lastly, no sidewalks or curbs, so a rainstorm means a mess.

          4. 6919 Colorado Ave, La Mesa

            Doorknob meets mirror in a couple of places. Classy.

            The house is 70 years old and everything showing is brand new. And cramped.

            Is it common to hang the water heater on the outside of the house? Never saw that before.

          5. “Is it common to hang the water heater on the outside of the house? Never saw that before.”

            Usually in the garage, but there’s no garage. There was likely a tank water heater in the closet where the washer dryer stack now resides.

          6. Is it common to hang the water heater on the outside of the house? Never saw that before.

            It was at the Encinitas house.

          7. It was at the Encinitas house.

            In the Escondido house it was in the garage, which wasn’t exactly warm in the winter. In the current shanty it’s in the basement, which is heated.

  25. CAMPBELL
    Exactly HOW Much Are Home Prices Declining??
    The Keith Walker Real Estate Team – Silicon Valley
    Premiered 23 hours ago Exactly HOW Much Are Home Prices Declining?? 📉

    Being a seasoned real estate veteran of over 25 years 👴🏼⌛️ … It’s always intriguing to listen to all of the irrational fear 😱, blind optimism 😎 and data seeming grabbed out of thin air or just plain manufactured!

    By everyone … realtors, home owners, wanna be home owners and of course … the media!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWFk_xkLS_M

    2:17.

  26. Orange County Home Values Are Doomed. 2023 Market Forecast With Real Numbers
    Randy Ora
    Oct 27, 2022 It’s going to get ugly in 2023. Realtors look to the “experts” and their “forecast” of the future housing market. If you are a Laguna Niguel property owner and thinking of selling your home you want to hear this. Here is the 2023 Forecast for California Real Estate activity directly from the California Association of Realtors. If you live in Orange County California this is for you. #1: Values are predicted to drop. #2: Transactions are predicted to be less in 2023 than this year. #3: Mortgage rates will remain high and go even higher. So… what to do if you own a home? Thinking of selling your Orange County home but wondering if waiting a year or two is better. Here is the calculated answer; Don’t wait to sell your home in a year or two if you can sell your home now. Attention Investors: many of you are already seeing the handwriting on the wall and are more likely to sell NOW if they can than to wait. Investment homes are outpacing the “owner occupied” homes 4 to 1! Investors are dumping now. Numbers don’t lie!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNrpGf8JLeA

    8 minutes.

  27. Will Toronto Real Estate Prices Keep Dropping? (October 2022)
    Steven Zalunardo
    Premiered 40 minutes ago Will Toronto Real Estate Prices Keep Dropping? (October 2022 Market Update)
    My clients keep asking me what I think’s going to happen to the Toronto real estate market. This past month we’ve seen inventory stay relatively low with pretty low demand and we’re starting to hear stories of people starting to feel the increased payments. To be honest, it’s hard to predict where prices will move. Inflation keep rising, interest rates keep rising, and real estate is so highly priced compared to other areas in Canada and the US. That’s why I think we’re going to see some lower prices hit the market in the next 2 years.

    In this video, I explain what I’m seeing across the Toronto real estate market and where I think we’re heading.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmSC2j7mCH0

    1:51.

  28. $114,900 4 bd 2ba 1,768 sqft
    Price cut: $25K (10/26)
    2102 Gates Ave, Kingman, AZ 86401

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2102-Gates-Ave-Kingman-AZ-86401/8375059_zpid/

    Date Event Price
    10/26/2022 Price change $114,900 (-17.9%) $65/sqft

    10/21/2022 Price change $139,900 (-6.7%) $79/sqft

    9/19/2022 Listed for sale $149,900 (+19.9%) $85/sqft

    8/26/2022 Sold $125,000 (-15.3%) $71/sqft

    3/28/2022 Listing removed $147,500 $83/sqft

    2/28/2022 Price change $147,500 (-7.8%) $83/sqft

    1/19/2022 Price change $160,000 (+18.6%) $90/sqft

    11/10/2021 Listed for sale $134,900 $76/sqft

    I got this listing from UHS.com and one photo had paperwork taped to the front window. REO? Anyway the photos of the bathrooms brought back memories of 2010.

      1. Pissed off FBs? But if you want a hundred grand, you could at least pick up the shards of broken toilets before you get out the camera. Lazy realtors.

    1. what it really means for free speech

      Subject to a “content moderation council.” How’d that work out at every other social media platform?!

      1. People are spending far more time contemplating this acquisition than Musk did. Suggested reading:

        The Atlantic:
        Elon Musk’s Texts Shatter the Myth of the Tech Genius
        The world’s richest man has some embarrassing friends.

        “The texts are juicy, but not because they are lurid, particularly offensive, or offer up some scandalous Muskian master plan—quite the opposite. What is so illuminating about the Musk messages is just how unimpressive, unimaginative, and sycophantic the powerful men in Musk’s contacts appear to be. Whoever said there are no bad ideas in brainstorming never had access to Elon Musk’s phone.”

        The Verge:
        Welcome to hell, Elon
        You break it, you buy it.

        “I say this with utter confidence because the problems with Twitter are not engineering problems. They are political problems. Twitter, the company, makes very little interesting technology; the tech stack is not the valuable asset. The asset is the user base: hopelessly addicted politicians, reporters, celebrities, and other people who should know better but keep posting anyway. You! You, Elon Musk, are addicted to Twitter. You’re the asset. You just bought yourself for $44 billion dollars.”

        1. Musk has spent the last 6 months and $100M in legal fees the last 3 months trying to get out of the deal. Let that sink in!

  34. Bahahahahahahaha … this is some great marketing …

    “Report: Innocent Car Badge Blasted By The Liberals For Being Offensive'”

    (keep in mind that what follows is sponsored content)

    The liberals are back at it again, wreaking havoc online and ruining everyone’s day.

    This time, a patriotic brand selling these innocent “FJB Edition Fender Badges” has the Liberals in an absolute rage.

    They’ve gone to Twitter to vent, calling anyone who has one of these badges on their car an “absolute loser”. On top of that, they are calling the badge “offensive” and that it should be banned off the internet!

    Little did they know that their social media rants would completely back fire!

    As soon as Conservatives got wind that the site was being “cancelled”, demand skyrocketed.

    Owner Tyler W. had this to say:

    “The Liberals, they sure don’t know how to get things done!

    Sales have been FLOODING in ever since their tweet.

    The Libs are truly evil trying to take down a small business in times like these!”

    Finely coated with chrome metal, we see why this badge is such a prized possession….

    It says the message that perfectly describes how we all feel about Sleepy Joe:

    “F*** Joe Biden!”

    If the Liberals are successful… you won’t be able to find these car badges anywhere…

    But luckily for now, they seem to be failing, so get one while you still can.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/sponsored-post/report-innocent-car-badge-blasted-liberals-being-offensive

    (oh, and the article concudes with this …)

    “This post is sponsored content and Zerohedge has been compensated for its publication.”

  35. Dumb question of the day: If the current wave of US housing price declines culminates in mass foreclosures, will the financial losses land on US taxpayers, including people who are financially responsible and didn’t buy a house at peak bubble prices or HELOC themselves to the hilt?

    1. Here’s Why Investors Should Be Careful With Annaly Capital
      Contributor
      Brent Nyitray
      The Motley Fool
      Published
      Oct 28, 2022 06:45AM EDT

      This year has been extraordinarily difficult for mortgage companies. Mortgage banking companies have experienced huge declines in revenue and profits, and many major players have shut down. Mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) have dealt with an unprecedented increase in interest rates during a short period of time. How is Annaly Capital (NYSE: NLY) faring? The Federal Reserve building.

      Annaly Capital is a mortgage REIT that owns a portfolio of agency mortgage-backed securities that are guaranteed by the U.S. government, as well as loans that are not guaranteed. This means that Annaly’s portfolio contains both credit risk and interest rate risk. Agency mortgage-backed securities generally pay low rates because of government guarantees, but they contain no default risk. Mortgage REITs need to use a lot of leverage (in other words, borrowed money) to turn a portfolio of loans paying 4% into a double-digit dividend yield.

      Annaly also holds non-guaranteed loans that are generally referred to as “non-QM,” which stands for non-qualified mortgage. These loans are not eligible for sale to government-sponsored entities or to the government. These loans are often made to professional real estate investors who intend to use rental income to pay the mortgage.

      These loans have nothing in common with the subprime, no-money-down loans from the bad old days. The borrower generally has to put down 30% of the purchase price and show that rental income will be sufficient to pay off the loan. Annaly is building out its non-QM business, and intends for it to be a larger percentage of its assets in the future. This means that Annaly’s mix of credit risk and interest rate risk will change as well. This will make the company more susceptible to the overall economy instead of just interest rates.
      Mortgage-backed securities are underperforming

      During the past quarter, the difference in rates between the typical mortgage and the corresponding Treasury bond has increased. In trader parlance, mortgage-backed security spreads have widened, which tends to happen when financial markets are stressed. Even though mortgage REITs such as Annaly tend to hedge their interest rate risk, the value of their holdings fall when rates rise, and the gains from hedge positions have been insufficient to offset those losses. For this reason, Annaly’s book value probably fell in the latest quarter.

      Why have mortgage-backed security spreads widened? There are two big drivers of this. The first is interest rate volatility. Mortgage-backed securities react negatively to big increases in interest rates, and this has been the case as the Federal Reserve raises rates to tamp down inflation. The second big reason has been fears that the Fed will dump its portfolio of mortgage-backed securities that it bought since the financial crisis to support the economy. The Fed owns about $2.7 trillion worth of mortgage-backed securities, and that potential supply has been a cloud over this market.
      …
      https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/heres-why-investors-should-be-careful-with-annaly-capital

      1. Is there any reason to fear that the Fed won’t continue dumping trillions of dollars into real estate investors’ open hands?

        “The second big reason has been fears that the Fed will dump its portfolio of mortgage-backed securities that it bought since the financial crisis to support the economy. The Fed owns about $2.7 trillion worth of mortgage-backed securities, and that potential supply has been a cloud over this market.”

      2. “The Fed owns about $2.7 trillion worth of mortgage-backed securities, and that potential supply has been a cloud over this market.”

        Is that mark to market, or is that original par value?

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