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How Little They Really Know About What They Imagine They Can Design

A weekend topic starting with WBZ-TV. “Rates on a 30-year mortgage are now more than double what they were at this time last year. It’s just the latest impact Americans are feeling from inflation levels not seen in 40 years. WBZ-TV’s Paula Ebben spoke with Warren Group CEO Tim Warren about what you should do if you’re in the market to buy a home. Q: There will be a lot of baby boomers watching this who will think to themselves ‘Boy, I remember back in the early 80s my interest rate was 14%.’ But is the big difference in the average price of the home now? Especially in Massachusetts?”

“A: I think so. My first mortgage was in 1976 at 9%, but the house only cost $35,000. So we’re talking about some much bigger baseline numbers here for the house itself, so every point this interest rate goes up, it is significant.”

From Benzinga. “The already sky-high home prices in those markets (which were at or near $1 million) was a major factor in motivating people to move to sunbelt cities like Orlando, Tampa, Phoenix and Houston. These cities experienced a housing boom during the COVID-19 crisis, which drove their home prices through the roof. That was when the Federal Reserve was still keeping interest rates low to keep the economy moving during the COVID-19 crisis. The unintended consequence of such a prolonged period of low interest rates was that a $500,000 mortgage stopped seeming like a whole lot of money. The reality is that $500,000 was always a lot of money. It still is.”

The Washington Post. “Mortgage rates topped 7 percent this week, the highest level in 20 years. Through 2020 and 2021, sales prices exploded in the Hudson Valley, as transplants from New York City and elsewhere clamored for the few homes available. But as mortgage rates soar now, the number of homes available has more than doubled in the last three months, jumping from around 150 units to about 380, said Ryan Basten, an associate broker at Berkshire Hathaway.”

“But with the Fed poised to hike rates two more times before the end of the year, Basten said he and others in the industry are left ‘wondering if there is going to be a real downturn in the market.’ ‘We can only deal with what we’re dealing with now. I can’t see that mortgage rates are going to go to 10 [percent]. If they did, then that would feel like a recession,’ Basten said. ‘Eight [percent] feels bad. Ten percent would be like, ‘Wow, where we do go from here?’”

From Money.com. “What seemed unthinkable just a few months ago has come to pass — Freddie Mac’s benchmark mortgage rate has surpassed 7%. Rather than seeing the slowdown as a negative, Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at real estate start-up Haus sees it as a necessary step toward bringing the market back into balance. ‘The housing market the last two years has been way out of whack and was never sustainable,’ he says. The longer an unsustainable market lasts, he explains, the more severe the inevitable correction will be. ‘If it takes 7% mortgage rates to help get to a more normal level, then so be it.'”

From Reuters. “The world’s top central bankers are beginning to fear that an already weak global economy will stall if they keep pressing on the brakes, unnerved by plunging commodity prices, turmoil in emerging markets and potential flashpoints at home. ‘Over the last two weeks, several G10 Central Banks came across as ready-to-pivot,’ said Alfonso Peccatiello, author of the Macro Compass financial newsletter. ‘Why such a sudden change of heart? Because all these jurisdictions have something in common: inherent fragilities.’ He singled out high mortgage debt in Canada and public debt in southern Europe, which can’t count on a bailout from across the Alps due to the euro zone’s lack of a common backstop.”

From KELO in South Dakota. “The last year of the Sioux Falls housing market has been ‘tumultuous’ to say the least, according to Fisher Sisters Real Estate co-owner Dana Fisher. At the start of the year, high demand mixed with a low supply of homes created a highly competitive market that left buyers over bidding to secure a home. ‘So, there just wasn’t a lot to choose from. And so the market was just so competitive. I mean, buyers were really having to waive a lot of their contingencies and pay well over asking, just to get their offer accepted,’ Fisher said.”

“Now, Fisher says inventory is up with up to 300 homes available in the Sioux Falls market. ‘And we only have 31 pending contract, so only about 10% of homes that are on the market are under contract right now,’ Fisher said. In the Sioux Falls market where homebuying has been incredibly expensive and competitive, Fisher says the lower interest rates weren’t sustainable.”

“‘So, you know, [now] you’re not having to pay $50,000 over asking,’ Fisher said. ‘The options are actually there, they’re actually available. And so, it wasn’t sustainable for interest rates to stay at 2% and for houses to inflate every year– 17%, 18%, 19%. That’s not sustainable.'”

The Marina Times in California. “‘September was the start of a correction in our market,’ said David Cohen, founder of City Real Estate. ‘Some people might say it started earlier, but in September the stock market really began to fall, there was a big seasonal jump in inventory, interest rates started to climb, and home values really began to drop.’ According to the San Francisco Association of Realtors, the median price for a home in San Francisco in September was $1.4 million, down from $1.6 million — the all-time high recorded in April of this year. That’s about a 13 percent decline in just six months.”

“‘This decrease in home values could last a minimum of six months, or a maximum of 18 months, probably somewhere in between,’ said Cohen. ‘And when I say decline — it’s not a straight line. You’ll have three months of price decline, and then one month of up, but the overall trend will be negative. In fact, right now, we’re selling condos at 2014 and 2015 prices.'”

The Salinas Valley Tribune. “What a difference four months can make in the property world! When I look back to the summer, it is ridiculous to think of where we were then to where we are now! In the summertime, it was a strong seller’s market, the homes were flying off the shelves with multiple offers over list price. There was a horrible lack of inventory that made most of us crazy. We knew it couldn’t last, especially with the kick up in interest rates, but by late June things were swiftly changing.”

“I recall a convo with a potential seller that went something like this. ‘So, if I don’t list in the next month or so, when will the next peak of market be?’ Of course, I’m no economic genius or crystal ball reader, but these markets do come in cycles and, as an old dog of real estate, I would say you are likely looking at 10 to 12 years for another boom town to come around, is what I told him. He looked at me incredulously. ‘That long?’ I quickly diverted him to another ‘expert’ in the field, because no one really knows about these things, do we; even when we kinda do.”

“I was shocked to see a foreclosure home coming up on the active market. My buyers wanted to go and see it. Oh no! We didn’t even cross the threshold of this funky teardown and the old memories came rushing back — and not in a good way. Treading through disgusting carpet and cockroach-ridden doors in the old days of REO, never knowing what you might find and hoping that it wasn’t going to be something dead.”

“A few of us old dogs have agreed that we will struggle to do that work again, but here we are — they are starting to pop up again and the buying public sometimes imagine that a foreclosure means a deal! Oh, there are deals to be had out there, but you don’t need to visit a fixer-upper to find them. I recently showed seven houses in Greenfield — they were all on the active market with no current offers on them. That stopped me in my tracks — such unfamiliar territory! Not only that, but the listing agents contacted me after my showings for feedback. That hadn’t happened in a while either.”

“The buyers were certainly now moving into the driver’s seat, except that the seat wasn’t super occupied. Buyers, where are you?”

Yahoo Finance Canada. “The surge in net wealth that many Canadians enjoyed during the pandemic as the value of their homes skyrocketed and high-flying stocks bolstered their investment portfolios is reversing course, RBC Economics says. The downturn in the real estate and financial markets means Canadians could see a total of $1.6 trillion in net wealth erased in the coming quarters, the bank said in a report. While that won’t wipe out all of the estimated wealth gains made during the pandemic, it’s already having a chilling effect on consumer spending.”

“From peak to trough, RBC estimates it would represent a 41 per cent decline in collective net worth. ‘Still, for the most part, the sharp decline in net wealth is starting to hit home,’ the report said. ‘Households can finance spending either out of current income or by drawing from their net wealth. As a result, when their net worth declines, so does their confidence about spending.'”

The Vancouver Sun. “Mortgage holders without a fixed rate, homeowners with mortgages about to expire and homebuyers shopping for a home will be hardest hit by Bank of Canada’s inflation-fighting interest hikes. But local mortgage experts say there are steps they can take with their lender before they have to sell or face foreclosure. ‘For the roughly one-in-four mortgage holders with a variable rate who have watched their equity position drop, it’s very easy to feel you’re in a bad position, but you’re not if you have job security and you can weather’ a downturn in the market, said broker Dustan Woodhouse, also a board member of the Canadian Mortgage Brokers Association of Canada.”

“‘The longest stretch (for a real estate bust, in the 1990s) lasted seven years,’ he said. ‘Is this really going to last seven years? Maybe.'”

“The mortgage holder with a variable rate that’s adjustable has been hit the hardest because ‘they have had six punches to the gut,’ said Marci Deane, also of Mortgage Architects. But those who signed variable rates with static payments are also facing possibly higher payments, according to the two brokers, something neither has seen in their years as a broker. ‘Hey, we’re making history,’ said Deane, who said she has worked as a broker for 15 years and has never seen it happen.”

The Globe and Mail. “Politicians do have a significant role to play in controlling inflation, with decisions about spending and taxation influencing overall demand in the economy. Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney told a Senate committee meeting last week that fiscal discipline will be imperative in a new era of higher interest rates, slower growth and more persistent inflation. ‘Sound money and credible fiscal policy will be rewarded. But mistakes will be punished and no one’s really going to be exempt,’ he said.”

“Until recently, most critiques of the central bank have come from the Conservatives, who argue the bank’s government-bond-buying program during the pandemic was a key driver of inflation. Mr. Poilievre has championed this position, calling the bank an ‘ATM machine’ for the government and saying he would sack Mr. Macklem if the Conservatives form government.”

From ABC Business. “Treasurer Jim Chalmers said his first budget was one of ‘hard decisions for hard times.’ But like Chalmers, Australians — especially those on lower incomes — are having to make their own hard budget decisions. The cost of bills are up, groceries are up, fuel is up, housing costs and instability are up, and something has to give. Meet Miriam. She’s the ‘typical Aussie,’ according to last year’s census: aged 38, female. Let’s say she has two kids, a husband, a rental property in a Sydney suburb, a part-time job and a growing stack of bills.”

“Because Miriam is part-time at the moment, let’s assume the couple’s gross weekly income is around $2,700 — or about $2,150 after tax. She has her own balancing act. For Miriam, and millions like her, the juggle is real. To make matters worse, the biggest price rises have been largely concentrated in non-discretionary items. This means food, petrol, housing, medication — basically the needs, not wants. The price of these things has risen at an annual pace of 8.4 per cent in the September quarter, compared to 5.5 per cent for the fun stuff. When Miriam goes to the supermarket, it’s becoming harder to afford fresh fruit and vegetables for her growing children. Meat has already become an occasional luxury.”

“The budget included some measures aimed at bringing bills down, like $65.7 million extra for the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission to regulate the gas industry. Chalmers has also said the government is considering broader regulatory interventions. But the reality is, it’ll take some time for any measures to translate into relief for families. ‘The problem with direct handouts is it would feed straight into inflation,’ Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said this week. ‘That’s the problem here. So, what we had to do was target investment into ways that didn’t add to inflation.'”

The Pasadena Star News. “This is not the first debate we’ve had recently about inflation and Fed actions. The lesson we should learn, and I fear we won’t, is that government officials and those advising them from inside or outside the government don’t know as much as they claim to about the interventions they design to control the economy. As a reminder, in 2021, the dominant voices including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell asserted that the emerging inflation would be ‘transitory’ and disappear when pandemic-induced supply constraints dissolve. That was wrong.”

“When this fact became obvious, the messaging shifted: Fed officials could and would fight inflation in a timely manner by raising rates to the exact level needed to avoid recession and higher unemployment. Never mind that the whole point of raising interest rates is precisely to soak money out of the economy by slowing demand, which often causes unemployment to rise. Lessons from the past should have made everyone more suspicious of this ‘soft landing’ argument.”

“As someone who never had faith that the same central bankers who created and missed the biggest inflation in 40 years could guide our complex economy back to health with only the crude tools at their disposal — asset tapering, interest-rate hikes and backward-looking models — I’m baffled by the debate. We were told for years that the mighty Fed had not only conquered inflation but could now use its powers to produce inclusive economic growth, control the climate and reduce inequality.”

“Where did the confidence go? In truth, the idea that the Fed (or anyone) possesses the knowledge necessary to fix, control or grow the economy with perfectly calibrated top-down policies was always an illusion. That bubble just burst.”

“Over at Discourse Magazine, my colleague Thomas Hoenig — a former president of the Fed’s Kansas City branch — explains how Fed officials faced similar pressures during the late 1960s and 1970s. Unfortunately, he writes, ‘Bowing to congressional and White House pressure, (Fed officials) held interest rates at an artificially low level. … What followed was a persistent period of steadily higher inflation, from 4.5% in 1971 to 14% by 1980. Only then did the FOMC, under the leadership of Paul Volcker, fully address inflation.'”

“Hoenig urges the Fed to stay strong today. He writes, ‘Interest rates must rise; the economy must slow, and unemployment must increase to regain control of inflation and return it to the Fed’s 2% target.’ There is a cost in doing this; a soft landing was never in the cards. After this string of failed predictions, slow response and admitted ignorance, will politicians finally learn what F.A. Hayek meant about ‘how little they really know about what they imagine they can design?'”

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This Post Has 91 Comments

  1. From the last link:

    Veronique de Rugy is the George Gibbs Chair in Political Economy and a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.

  2. ‘I was shocked to see a foreclosure home coming up on the active market. My buyers wanted to go and see it. Oh no! We didn’t even cross the threshold of this funky teardown and the old memories came rushing back — and not in a good way. Treading through disgusting carpet and cockroach-ridden doors in the old days of REO, never knowing what you might find and hoping that it wasn’t going to be something dead’

    ‘A few of us old dogs have agreed that we will struggle to do that work again, but here we are — they are starting to pop up again’

    Oh dear…

    1. The Financial Times
      Cryptocurrencies
      Crypto winter risks turning into ice age
      ‘Apathy’ kicks in as asset class fails to pick up after this year’s market crash
      Bitcoin logo and other cryptocurrencies on a sign
      The Nasdaq stock index in the US has fallen 30% over the past year, but bitcoin’s value has dropped nearly 70% drop over the same period
      Scott Chipolina in London yesterday

      After a spectacular crash earlier this year, the crypto industry’s most popular tokens have gone to sleep, suggesting amateur investors have fallen out of love with the once thrilling asset class and big funds have decided to keep their distance.

      The price of the biggest token, bitcoin, has hovered mostly at about $20,000 now since August, having peaked a year ago close to $70,000. Ether, the second largest, has failed to rally since its environmental overhaul in September. Average annualised volatility for bitcoin is now the lowest since October 2020, according to analytics platform CryptoCompare.

      At first, the drop in token prices was labelled a “crypto winter” — one of the market’s periodic dips. But the length of this now-drab phase, combined with the thousands of job losses in the sector in recent months, suggests this is more of an ice age, with no grand theories emerging as the next source of fuel for rallies.

      “The narrative silence is deafening,” said Edmond Goh, head of trading at crypto broker B2C2. “Eventually a narrative will come along that will [break the impasse] — perhaps inflation or a big regulatory announcement. Perhaps something completely unexpected.”
      …

  5. ‘The options are actually there, they’re actually available. And so, it wasn’t sustainable for interest rates to stay at 2% and for houses to inflate every year– 17%, 18%, 19%. That’s not sustainable’

    Dana could see that with perfect 20-20 hindsight. I certainly said this sh$thole and all the other sh$tholes would not hold these run ups. But Jerry couldn’t see it? Or did he and the rest of the globalist central banking scum set the whole damn thing up? No going back to normal, right Jerry?

  6. ‘Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney told a Senate committee meeting last week that fiscal discipline will be imperative in a new era of higher interest rates, slower growth and more persistent inflation. ‘Sound money and credible fiscal policy will be rewarded. But mistakes will be punished and no one’s really going to be exempt’

    This dangerous clown is the walking talking example of moral hazard.

  7. ‘Because all these jurisdictions have something in common: inherent fragilities.’ He singled out high mortgage debt in Canada and public debt in southern Europe, which can’t count on a bailout from across the Alps due to the euro zone’s lack of a common backstop’

    These things were unknown? Better to not go down the QE road if you have no idea how it will end.

    ‘I’m baffled by the debate. We were told for years that the mighty Fed had not only conquered inflation but could now use its powers to produce inclusive economic growth, control the climate and reduce inequality’

    ‘Where did the confidence go? In truth, the idea that the Fed (or anyone) possesses the knowledge necessary to fix, control or grow the economy with perfectly calibrated top-down policies was always an illusion. That bubble just burst’

    IMO this is what we should be considering. Not to raise or lower rates. Let’s get off this central banking roller coaster. It’s never worked except for those close to the money spigot. Bill Clinton said in 2016 that people in the US haven’t had a raise in 40 years. It’s still true today.

  10. The FBI is asking a U.S. court to reverse its order that it produce information from Seth Rich’s laptop computer.

    If the court does not, the bureau wants 66 years to produce the information.

    Rich was a Democratic National Committee staffer when he was killed on a street in Washington in mid-2016. No person has ever been arrested in connection to the murder.

    U.S. District Judge Amos Mazzant, an Obama appointee, ruled in September that the bureau must hand over information from the computer to Brian Huddleston, a Texas man who filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request for the info.

    The FBI’s assertion that the privacy interest Rich’s family members hold outweighed the public interest was rejected by Mazzant, who noted the bureau cited no relevant case law supporting the argument.

    But the ruling was erroneous, U.S. lawyers said in a new filing.

    The bureau shouldn’t have to produce the information because of FOIA exemptions for information that are compiled for law enforcement purposes and “could reasonably be expected to disclose the identity of a confidential source,” the lawyers said in a motion for reconsideration. Another exemption, which enables agencies to withhold information that would disclose law enforcement techniques also applies, they said.

    “Given the Court’s findings that except for the information related to Seth Rich’s laptop withheld pursuant to Exemptions 6 and 7(C) based on privacy interests, the FBI properly withheld or redacted all other information responsive to Huddleston’s requests, the production order seems inconsistent with the rest of the order,” the motion stated.

    The FBI, after claiming it never possessed Rich’s laptop or any information from it, acknowledged in 2020 that it had thousands of files from the computer.

    The bureau “is currently working on getting the files from Seth Rich’s personal laptop into a format to be reviewed,” the government said at the time.

    “If the court overrules the FBI’s motion, the FBI wants to produce records at a rate of 500 pages per month. At that rate, it will take almost 67 years just to produce the documents, never mind the images and other files,” Ty Clevenger, a lawyer representing Huddleston, told The Epoch Times in an email.

    “After dealing with the FBI for five years, I now assume that the FBI is lying to me unless and until it proves otherwise. The FBI is desperately trying to hide records about Seth Rich, and that begs the question of why.”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/fbi-asks-court-for-66-years-to-release-information-from-seth-richs-computer_4826785.html

      1. “There had been a struggle. His hands were bruised, his knees are bruised, his face is bruised, and yet he had two shots to his back, and yet they never took anything… They didn’t finish robbing him, they just took his life.” —Seth’s mother

  12. Joe Biden will never be the legitimately elected president of the United States, because the 2020 election was stolen.

    Attorney General Merrick Garland is a domestic terrorist.

  13. A reader sent these in:

    When housing goes down it stays down for a long time, weighing on GDP and life.

    https://twitter.com/PPGMacro/status/1586046792398872576

    Wages Are Soaring in US Cities With the Highest Inflation
    The pivot is a mirage

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1586088218541309952

    Meanwhile, the energy crisis is about to get worse and the pile of distressed debt is mounting, a wave of default is coming as the market bets on 75bps hike. Given the amount of cash still circulating due to high wages i would expect higher hikes (75bps and next one 75bps)

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1586062424943255552

    Canada to launch digital ID together with WEF… the initiative removes the need for physical passports and can also be used as a combined vaccine passport… and will fit well with the CBDC and social credit score…All for your safety and well-being of course.

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1586085399964827650

    Brilliant. Print more Yen to ease inflation. I am sure it will work this time.

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1586127352978755586

    Nasma Ali

    People taking out of context an interview I had with Bloomberg several months back where I said I don’t see rates having an impact on this market. And this was specifically because I said I don’t see them raising the rates drastically enough.

    https://twitter.com/nasmadotali/status/1584782627604615168

    Technically you were wrong. You might have used information that was also wrong (BOC) to come to your conclusion, but you were still wrong. You’re just Jim Cramer, but in Toronto Real estate.

    https://twitter.com/Iamhere4tweets/status/1584920980039819269

    Personal excess savings from Covid stimulus are all gone…

    Meanwhile consumer loans are increasing at a very steep angle…

    This will end well… 🔥

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1586172943800979456

    Ultimate rug pull… told business and households to borrow without a worry of increased risk of rate hikes than forget you promised that 😬

    https://twitter.com/mortgagesbyjaz/status/1584803526752235520

    Nasma Ali

    Many stories like this. Shared with me from someone in a Facebook community group. The rates’ effect on home owners – more than on buyers – is what will hurt the market by next year.

    https://twitter.com/nasmadotali/status/1585403809253462022

    Nasma Ali

    Common question is why would anyone take a variable if they are end users, or are risk averse. One reason is, because variable rate is lower than fixed, they were able to qualify for more. And when prices were at the peak, they felt they needed that boost.

    https://twitter.com/nasmadotali/status/1586009131428839425

    Ron Butler

    Up until Jan / Feb of 2022 we advised many clients that Variable could be their best option

    No Economist, no Lender, no Mortgage Broker saw these massive Prime Rate increases coming

    The MOST aggressive in Feb was the Scotia Chief Economist who thought BoC Prime could hit 2.25%

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1586015490698543104

    Lance Lambert

    On a year-over-year basis, Boise home values are down -3.93%. 🏡📉

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1585977156076568576

    Lance Lambert

    Residential investment—the core of “housing GDP”—plunged an annualized 26.4% in Q3. It subtracted 1.37 percentage points from GDP, the most since 2007.

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1585965106302689282

    20min conversation w a small lender I’m doing a refi with.

    FDIC has put community banks on notice they’ll be reducing the % of RE loans they’ll allow them to hold in their portfolio.

    DSCR doesn’t matter if they’re required to shrink their portfolio.
    Long winter ahead.

    https://twitter.com/jaybowman/status/1585653377874239488

    Central Bankers hold way more sway and power over your daily lives than politicians, yet they are not elected and are never accountable. Their mistakes can be horrendously costly to society and they can be unfit for the job. This is Democracy’s black hole.

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1586065542695174150

    Rick Palacios Jr.

    Land prices are already falling nationally. Down -5% to -9% in last 3 months.

    https://twitter.com/RickPalaciosJr/status/1585680442463690753

    Justin Chambers, Broker

    My current land sales: Original list price 199,900. I sold it to buyer today 62,500. Second one listed 176,000 in escrow for 93,000. I’m not scared of submitting lowball offers.

    https://twitter.com/JustinC42020023/status/1583200860972101632

    This seems bad

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1585818558293950464

    *HONG KONG’S HANG SENG INDEX PLUNGES 4% TO LOWEST SINCE 2009

    https://twitter.com/Investingcom/status/1585904648828948480

    Shipping activity at the Port of Los Angeles is running 10-15% below its average pace of the last 7 years. 10-15% is not a small number.

    https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1585991439044911104

    CBRE starting to peel back spending. Mostly through layoffs.

    https://twitter.com/Levijameshere/status/1585786660368818176

    Ryan Lundquist

    Sellers, nail the price:

    – There’s a smaller pool of buyers today
    – Overpriced neighbors aren’t comps
    – 53.8% of listings have had a price drop
    – 49.4% of pendings reduced before a contract
    – 50.6% of pendings didn’t need a reduction
    – Drop the price significantly if required

    https://twitter.com/SacAppraiser/status/1586013047767736320

    East Coast fuel markets are facing a diesel shortage. Mansfield is moving the Southeast to Code Red, requesting 72 hour notice for deliveries when possible to ensure fuel and freight can be secured at economical levels 🚨

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1585814984483049472

      1. Canada to launch

        Be careful taking a “tweet” from some stranger as being gospel. The Vaccine Passport is for the time being dead in the arse.

        1. I believe you still need one to enter the EU and the US (non Americans). I get tons of pricey, glossy catalogues from Viking cruises on a regular basis. Not only am I not allowed to enter the EU, Viking won’t let me board one of their river barges unless I can prove I’m jabbed and boosted.

          2. Most of the EU — well, France, anyway — can be entered after a flight without any proof of covid inoculation. I’m a pureblood. I got in last month and am going back in a couple weeks and don’t expect any problems.
            Because of EU overreach, what one EU country does is generally — not always — what the rest of them do, so my hunch is that all of Europe is open.
            I’ll try to drop in here to let you know what’s open …

          3. After googling I see that the EU now “recommends” that member countries require non citizens to be jabbed to enter. I checked Viking’s website and they still require the jab for passengers.

  14. On a year-over-year basis, Boise home values are down -3.93%

    Check out how far it’s down from the spring peak. A video I posted earlier this week had some of the K-dn igloo clusters down 17% or more, year over year. Which means serious crater from spring.

  15. Pumpkin Carving With a Glock 23
    hickok45
    Oct 24, 2010 Hickok45 demonstrates the proper method for carving a pumpkin again this year!
    Pumpkin CARVING through the years:
    Pumpkin Carving with Henry Rifle (2015) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5n9Eb…
    Pumpkin Carving with .44 Magnum (2014) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5m7VB…
    Pumpkin Carving with Desert Eagle (2013) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNiwp…
    Pumpkin Carving with Colt 1911 (2012) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mThUf…
    Pumpkin Carving with AK 47 (2011) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2uVS…
    Pumpkin Carving with Glock 23 (2010) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGH8A…
    Pumpkin Caving with Glock 21 (2009) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpJpB…Pumpkin

    Pumpkin KILLING through the years:
    Pumpkin Killing Methods I : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b20KF…
    Pumpkin Killing Methods II : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJCkQ…
    Pumpkin Killing Methods III : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofXPO…
    Pumpkin Killing Methods IV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zpblk…
    Pumpkin Killing Methods V: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVEHG…
    Pumpkin Killing Methods VI: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCk6b…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGH8Af9Hdb0

    1:43.

    1. She’ll get by in her post-Twitter life.

      “CEO Parag Agrawal and CFO Ned Segal were also sent packing with payouts of $66million and $65million”

      2. “She’ll get by in her post-Twitter life.”

        This is the San Francisco Bay Area, so she’ll have to budget.

  19. The Democrat-Bolsheviks must be green with envy at the arbitrary, capricious power their CCP ideological clones can wield over the disarmed, helpless Chinese populace.

    China’s demented zero-Covid policy is no longer about health… It’s about power and mass surveillance, writes author IAN WILLIAMS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11367185/Chinas-zero-Covid-policy-no-longer-health-power-mass-surveillance.html

    The scene is like something from a horror film. A horde of terrified shoppers battling a crew of uniformed guards, desperate to escape the building in which they have been locked.

    It looks like hysteria after a terror attack — yet this is footage from a Saturday afternoon at an Ikea store in Shanghai, following an announcement that a Covid case had been traced to the shop.

    1. China’s demented zero-Covid policy is no longer about health… It’s about power and mass surveillance, writes author IAN WILLIAMS

      That is what it was about from day 1, and not just in China.

  20. I’ve been in this part of Region IV since 1982 and I have never seen a worse time to buy a house than 05/03/2022

    This house is listed For Sale on Realtor.com today

    511 Douglas Dr, Jupiter, FL 33458

    Year Built 1974

    Date 03/01/1986
    Event Sold
    Price $83,000

    Date 09/19/1997
    Event Sold
    Price $118,000

    Date 02/15/2019
    Event Sold
    Price $275,000

    Date 05/03/2022
    Event Sold
    Price $669,000

    Date 09/21/2022
    Event Listed
    Price $740,130

    Date 10/07/2022
    Event Price Changed
    Price $715,000

    2. That’s a great snapshot of the pandemic mania right there. It should be interesting to see where that one lands.

    3. “Date 02/15/2019
      Event Sold
      Price $275,000

      Date 05/03/2022
      Event Sold
      Price $669,000”

      Fannie or Freddie likely bought this cow-pie mortgage.

  21. “‘The housing market the last two years has been way out of whack and was never sustainable,’ he says. The longer an unsustainable market lasts, he explains, the more severe the inevitable correction will be. ‘If it takes 7% mortgage rates to help get to a more normal level, then so be it.'”

    It seems like the latest run of unsustainable prices started when the Fed aimed its Quantitative Easing firehose at mortgage backed securities, ten years rather than two.

    Is the Fed planning to wind down its mortgage bond portfolio as part of Quantitative Tightening? If so, will affordable housing prices return to America?

    1. So now it comes to light that Fed purchases of mortgage bonds may have contributed to inflation. Who’d’ve thunk!

      1. Why the Federal Reserve owns mortgage-backed securities — and what it hopes to achieve by offloading them
        Justin Ho 5 months ago

        The Fed started letting some of its mortgage bonds expire in 2017. But then the pandemic hit, and the economy needed help again.

        We’ve been reporting on the details of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes and their effects. Now, the Fed is embarking on another move that could have big effects on the economy, and it has to do with the central bank’s balance sheet.

        To stimulate the economy over the past few years, the Fed bought a lot of debt securities and held them on its balance sheet. Bills, notes and bonds issued by the Treasury make up the majority of those items. But mortgage-related securities make up about a third of the Fed’s balance sheet.

        This week, the central bank will start getting those items off its balance sheet. But that begs a couple of questions: Why the does the Fed own mortgage-backed securities in the first place? And what does it hope to achieve by getting rid of them?

        The reason the Federal Reserve owns mortgage-backed securities goes back to the golden days of the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, when the Fed was trying to prevent the mortgage market from collapsing.

        “During the crisis, every financial institution in the world had some exposure to the U.S. housing system,” said Jim Vogel at FHN Financial.

        Those institutions had no interest in buying more housing bonds in that environment, Vogel said. “And without that supply of capital, the Fed stepped in as a buyer, in effect, of last resort.”

        The Fed ended up buying over $1 trillion worth of mortgage bonds — in the process, pumping that much money into the economy — and kept buying them for several years, according to Winnie Cisar at CreditSights.

        “In the, call it 2009 to 2014 period, for the most part, the Fed was still adding holdings to its balance sheet, both Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities,” she said.

        In 2017, the Fed started letting some of its mortgage bonds expire. But then, in 2020, the pandemic happened, so the Fed went back to buying mortgage bonds.

        The goal, Cisar said, was once again to put cash into the economy. “Make sure that borrowers were able to borrow, that property valuations were still going to be relatively stable, to avoid a Great Financial Crisis 2.0.”
        Latest Stories on Marketplace

        Now, the Fed’s back to letting its existing mortgage bonds expire, so it gradually owns fewer and fewer of them. And if the Fed isn’t buying more mortgage bonds?

        “Then you’re going to need a private-sector actor to step in if you want to maintain all these mortgages out there,” said Megan Greene, chief economist at the Kroll Institute.

        When private investors buy those mortgage bonds, that pulls cash out of the overall economy.

        “Then there’s less capital generally sloshing around in the system, [and] that should slow down demand,” Greene said.

        And that, in theory, should take some of the upward pressure off inflation.

        https://www.marketplace.org/2022/06/02/why-the-federal-reserve-owns-mortgage-backed-securities-and-what-it-hopes-to-achieve-by-offloading-them/amp/

        1. Have you wondered how it was possible for housing prices to miraculously reflate after the Housing Bubble seemed to have ended circa 2012? Look no further than the hair-of-the-dog mortgage bond purchases the Fed initiated to rescue the financial institutions that were HODLing the bad mortgage debt.

          How far will they get with shrinking their MBS portfolio before deteriorating circumstances in the mortgage market force them to execute another hair-of-the-dog hangover treatment? And will there come a point when containing inflation becomes a higher priority than bailing out owners of bad mortgage debt?

    2. ” If so, will affordable housing prices return to America?”

      Doubtful because inflation is the only politically correct answer. Natural market forces will create relative affordability compared to the peak but it won’t last. Hawks will be replaced with regime supporting inflationary mindsets and that will combine with population growth to fuel the next bubble cycle when the time is right. The next bubble will dwarf the current one but it is over a decade away, first we have to resolve the cycle we are in. In real estate, timing is very important. Buy at the right time and you’re a genius sitting on a gold mine but buy at the wrong time and you’re a fool with a predatory loan. My advice, as usual, is get in tune to the cycle. Wait for the trough and lowball like a boss full of spite.

      1. get in tune to the cycle. Wait for the trough and lowball like a boss

        Good luck!

        Right now it feels pretty good not needing much, and owing nothing aside from gratitude.

  22. Wall Street seems convinced that a Fed pivot is just around the corner. Is this a reasonable belief?

    1. Finance ·Stock market
      Wall Street rally ‘a bit irrational’ as solid profits, economic data raise hopes for a still-unlikely Fed ‘pivot’
      BYStan Choe, Damian J. Troise, Alex Veiga and The Associated Press
      October 29, 2022 at 7:08 AM PDT
      A sign for New York Stock Exchange
      “The markets still seem to not want to believe that we might end up in a place where an earnings recession is possible.”
      Seth Wenig, File—AP Photo

      Technology stocks led a broad rally on Wall Street Friday, capping another strong week for the market, as investors welcomed solid profits from Apple and other companies.

      The S&P 500 rose 2.5% and posted its first back-to-back weekly gains since August. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.6% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite climbed 2.9%. Smaller company stocks also gained ground, lifting the Russell 2000 index by 2.3%.
      …
      Investors were also encouraged by a report on consumer spending that came a day after new data showing the economy grew modestly in the third quarter and inflation eased.

      “You have an economy that almost refuses to keel over, an economy that at its core is resilient, but a the same time inflation is easing and that is what the Fed wants and that’s obviously what the market wants,” said Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist for LPL Financial.

      That’s helped fuel hopes on Wall Street for a “pivot” by the Federal Reserve, where the central bank dials down the big interest-rate hikes that have shaken the market.
      …
      https://fortune.com/2022/10/29/wall-street-rally-solid-profits-economy-fed-pivot-inflation/

    2. The Fed won’t pivot from its rate hikes until the end of 2023, as inflation is persistent and the economy isn’t slowing as expected, JPMorgan strategist says
      Jennifer Sor
      Oct 28, 2022, 10:01 AM
      U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in Washington, U.S., March 20, 2019. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
      – The Fed won’t pivot from rate hikes until the end of 2023, according to JPMorgan strategist Julia Wang.
      – Wang pointed to strong GDP and labor market data, which would bolster the economy as the Fed keeps hiking rates.
      – “The weakness in the economy isn’t really as big or coming as fast as people have expected,” she said.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-fear-inflation-fed-pivot-rate-hikes-tightening-economy-housing-2022-10

          1. I recently read that the unaccountable Federal Reserve has a greater impact on our lives than most politicians. I’d have to agree.

    3. Stocks crashed 50% in the 2008 crisis. Here’s how bad Jamie Dimon, Nouriel Roubini, Michael Burry, and other top commentators see it getting in the next recession.
      Jennifer Sor
      10 hours ago
      Recession
      MJgraphics / Shutterstock

      A slew of factors weighing on the global economy has sparked comparisons to 2008, with dire predictions for stocks.
      Credit Suisse briefly shook markets on fears of collapse, spiking anxiety over another Lehman Brothers moment.
      – Here’s how bad a the next downturn could hit the stock market, according to five top experts.
      …

    1. Just wait until the lights start going out in the UK. And the new PM has resumed the fracking ban, because reasons.

  24. Hard to believe the Chinese people put up with this totalitarian lunacy.

    China plunges 210 million people into lockdown as two ‘highly contagious’ Covid variants emerge

    https://www.news.com.au/technology/science/human-body/china-plunges-210-million-people-into-lockdown-as-two-highly-contagious-covid-variants-emerge/news-story/aec90c74847cf10ca46db98f6aeecfef

    China has plunged 210 million people in lockdown as two “highly contagious” strains of Covid-19 threaten to cause an outbreak in the nation.

    1. Hard to believe the Chinese people put up with this totalitarian lunacy.

      They’ve been taught since preschool to put up with the lunacy.

  25. The Comrades of Proven Worth (D) in our NEA indoctrination mills have turned our schools into dangerous jungles, but anyone who confronts Democrat-Bolshevik school boards over “woke” policies can expect to get a visit from Merrick Garland’s FBI.

    Female Portland school bullies pulverize girl in common room while staffer walks past and does NOTHING, triggering $1m lawsuit: Woke city banned school cops in wake of George Floyd’s murder

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11368243/Portland-school-bullies-pulverize-girl-common-room-staffer-walks-past-does-NOTHING.html

  28. Buyers snap up U.S. Treasury I bonds before interest rate deadline
    Samantha Fields 19 hours ago
    Heard on:
    U.S. savings bonds.

    Amid high inflation and a rocky stock market, I bonds have boomed in popularity. They offer a high yield but are guaranteed by the government.

    Friday is the last day to buy a so-called I bond and lock in a 9.62% annualized interest rate for the next six months. I bonds are inflation-adjusted savings bonds issued by the U.S. government. Their interest rate changes every six months, in May and November.

    Normally, when inflation is low, they’re not all that popular because they don’t offer a great rate of return. But right now — with inflation as high as it is and the stock market volatile — they’re quite popular.

    So much so that the Treasury Department’s website, which is the only place to buy I bonds, has been overwhelmed in the last couple of days as investors rushed to benefit from the high rate before it changes next week.

    Around noon Eastern on Friday, Jennifer McKinnon was trying to log into her Treasury account.

    “Let’s see if this actually works. I doubt it,” she said. McKinnon was right — it didn’t. “Man! Why can’t I type in anything?”

    McKinnon lives in New York and works in real estate. She already bought some I bonds a couple of weeks ago but was hoping to buy more before the deadline and get her family and friends to buy them too.

    “I have told so many people about this where I feel like the Treasury owes me a commission,” McKinnon said. Individuals can buy up to $10,000 in electronic I bonds during a calendar year.
    …
    https://www.marketplace.org/2022/10/28/buyers-snap-up-u-s-treasury-i-bonds-before-interest-rate-deadline/amp/

    1. I helped retired family members buy $30K worth of these last week. Lil Sis was grousing about website delays during the purchase process, as at one point she had to start over and re-enter all of her data. Luckily we beat the deadline by several days, as it sounds like the whole system failed at the end.

    1. risking mass starvation in the Third World

      All part of the WEF’s master plan. The first world gets jabbed. The third world gets famine.

        1. I bought seed potatoes yesterday and I’ve started the process of chitting. After enticing bees with red and yellow marigolds, they’ve pollinated my cucumber plants. So far, so good!

        2. If the diesel really does run out in 25 days, famine will arrive sometime between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

          Happy Holidays!

    1. Seems the perpetrator was a Berkeley nudist with a conspiratorial mindset. He doesn’t fit the profile of either the US political left or extreme right. He’s more of the fundamentally unhinged type.

      Not to suggest that both parties won’t try to somehow claim a political motive in the attack…

      1. What Trump supporter lives in Berkeley?!?! Seriously?!?! And you assume a “conspiratorial mindset” is confined to the “extreme right.” Are you HRC?!?!

    1. “The victim’s wallet contained a debit card and identification documents. Later in the day, someone made two unauthorized purchases on her debit card.”

      Aren’t the poker face Democrats getting frustrated by their beneficiary’s behavior so close to an election?

  35. – Repeat of the Tweet provided above – And yet few understand this, but it’s the core problem with the global economy, including the enabling of asset bubbles such as the current Mother of All Bubbles (MOAB), aka “The Everything Bubble”, aka “The Central Bank Bubble.”

    – As one of the comments states: “Truth bomb,” but largely missed by most.

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1586065542695174150

    Tweet
    KKGB (Carlo Casio) @INArteCarloDoss

    Central Bankers hold way more sway and power over your daily lives than politicians, yet they are not elected and are never accountable.

    Their mistakes [intentional policies and actions] can be horrendously costly to society and they can be [are] unfit for the job.

    This is Democracy’s black hole.

    12:41 PM · Oct 28, 2022 · Twitter for iPhone

    – Key take-away: Central bankers wield great power over our daily lives by setting the money supply and interest rates (the price of money) in a fiat currency world, but they are unelected and unaccountable to the citizenry.
    – U.S. government:
    1st branch = executive branch. The (puppet) Biden and his administration of puppet masters. Hater of les deplorables, the bourgeoisie, the middle class.
    2nd branch = legislative branch. Ignorer of les deplorables, the bourgeoisie, the middle class. Too busy with corruption and self-enrichment.
    3rd branch = judicial branch. Some hope here thanks to conservative appointments by DJT. Hated by the 1st and 2nd branches because of this.
    4th branch of government = The Deep State. Hater of les deplorables, the bourgeoisie, the middle class. Also unelected and unaccountable.
    The 5th branch of government = The Fed. Also hater of les deplorables, the bourgeoisie, the middle class, labor (workers). Friend of capital (banks and corporations) as long as large, left-leaning corporations, but not small to medium enterprises (SMEs). See 5th Plank of Karl Marx’s Communist Manifesto. Enables Marxist policies by the 1st, 2nd, and 4th branches. Root cause of asset bubbles (asset inflation) and associated booms and busts and general price inflation.
    – This civics lesson isn’t being taught in K-12, or higher-ed due to their primary role now as communist indoctrination centers, to our detriment.
    – Just saying…

  38. ‘it would represent a 41 per cent decline in collective net worth’

    Is that a lot?

    ‘Households can finance spending either out of current income or by drawing from their net wealth’

    Sacré bleu!

  39. ‘This decrease in home values could last a minimum of six months, or a maximum of 18 months, probably somewhere in between,’ said Cohen. ‘And when I say decline — it’s not a straight line. You’ll have three months of price decline, and then one month of up, but the overall trend will be negative. In fact, right now, we’re selling condos at 2014 and 2015 prices’

    Click!

    1. The last two significant real estate downturns lasted about seven years (1990 – 1997, 2006 – 2013).

      Of course this time is different…

  40. In fact, right now, we’re selling condos at 2014 and 2015 prices’

    Some areas of the US are already down to 2010 prices….. And as BOFA stated, many areas will see mid 1990’s. Makes sense considering a 20+ year old houses isn’t worth much more that $20 a square foot. The simple fact is housing depreciates $4 per square foot, year after year after wallet emptying year.

    Fairfax, VA Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY On Ballooning Inventory As Northern Virginia Housing Demand Plummets

    https://www.movoto.com/va/22030/market-trends/

  41. For the roughly one-in-four mortgage holders with a variable rate who have watched their equity position drop, it’s very easy to feel you’re in a bad position, but you’re not if you have job security and you can weather’ a downturn in the market

  42. Paul Pelosi Attacker Lived in Berkeley Hippie Commune

    JORDAN DIXON-HAMILTON
    29 Oct 2022

    DePape’s neighbors said he slept back and forth between a broken-down camper van and a school bus parked outside pro-nudist activist Gypsy Taub’s home in Berkeley. According to DePape’s neighbors, Margarita and Julio Gonzalez, he used to live inside the house with Taub and her family before staying off and on in the buses parked outside.

    A closer look at Taub’s residence and the busses DePape reportedly slept in revealed an affinity for left-leaning political causes, which stands in contrast to attempts to link the attacker to “MAGA extremists.”

    As Breitbart News reported:

    For example, an American flag with rainbow colors and marijuana leaves can be seen in front of the house. Looking closer, a handwritten “Black Lives Matter” sign can be seen hanging in one of the home’s windows.

    Further, another sign posted in a different window reads, “Berkeley Stands United Against Hate,” which refers to a Berkeley-based organization that aims to “stop the hate and implicit biases that are a dangerous threat to the safety and civility of our neighborhoods, towns and cities.”

    A closer look at the van parked in Taub’s driveway showed more signs of support for left-leaning political causes.

    2,150 comments

    Libturdtrash • 2 hours ago
    A DUI and now getting caught with a gay, male prostitute. I can’t stop laughing.

    I Agree Let’s go Brandon(Rich) • 5 hours ago
    The media will have to tell the story about how hard it was for him to wear a red MAGA hat in that community.

    Cletus Servetus I Agree Let’s go Brandon(Rich) • 4 hours ago • edited
    Everyone knows you can’t swing a dead cat in a Berkley Hippie Commune without hitting a bunch of Mega MAGA people! /s

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/10/29/paul-pelosi-attacker-lived-in-berkeley-hippie-commune/

  43. Is a nearterm stock market bottom at hand, with the bluebirds getting warmed up to sing its arrival?

    1. 15 mins ago
      The Motley Fool
      Markets
      Do Federal Reserve Rate Cuts Signal Bear Market Bottoms? Here’s What History Says
      Contributor
      Sean Williams The Motley Fool
      Published
      Oct 30, 2022 05:06AM EDT

      What a difference a year makes! Last year featured minimal stock market volatility, with the broad-based S&P 500 retracing no more than 5% at its peak. In 2022, all three major indexes have plummeted into a bear market, with the ageless Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and growth-focused Nasdaq Composite plunging by as much as 22%, 28%, and 38%, respectively, from their all-time highs.

      On one hand, double-digit percentage declines in the stock market have always represented a buying opportunity for patient investors. Nevertheless, it can be trying on investors — especially newer investors — to deal with wild bear market price swings. It rightly has people wondering when and where the bear market will bottom.

      Some investors believe the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy can act as a surefire indicator of a stock market bottom.

      With the U.S. inflation rate rocketing to a more than four-decade high of 9.1% in June 2022, the nation’s central bank has had no choice but to raise its federal funds target rate at the most aggressive pace in decades. As interest rates climb, access to cheap capital and borrowing demand should taper off. In other words, the Fed is purposely hitting the brakes on the U.S. economy to tame high inflation.

      The thinking for a select group of investors is that a Fed pivot from hawkish to dovish monetary policy could signal a green light to pile back into equities. If interest rates were to level off or begin to fall, it would, in theory, indicate the Fed’s intent to reignite economic growth, especially among high-growth companies.

      However, the nation’s central bank doesn’t appear to be anywhere close to letting its foot off the accelerator. As of Sept. 21, the central tendency projection (i.e., the consensus forecast excluding the three highest and three lowest projections for a given year) for the federal funds rate is 4.4% to 4.9% in 2023 and 4.1% to 4.4% to end 2022. For context, the federal funds target rate is at 3% to 3.25% right now. This would imply a strong likelihood of a 75-basis-point rate hike in November, and at least another 75 to 100 basis points of future aggregate hikes before the Fed would even think about rate cuts, which are currently forecast to occur in 2024.

      Don’t expect a quick stock market bottom if the central bank changes its tune

      Although rate easing is almost always viewed as a positive for equities, the Federal Reserve has a habit of reacting to economic variables rather than proactively anticipating them. Put another way, it’s usually late to the party when it comes to adjusting interest rates higher or lower. The runaway inflation we’ve experienced this year on the heels of historically low lending rates and a lengthy period of quantitative easing (bond and mortgage-backed security buying) is a testament to this fact.

      Since this century began, investors have navigated their way through four bear markets, including the current one. In each of the three previous bear markets, it took a long time for the stock market to bottom out after the central bank enacted the first rate cut of an easing cycle.

      – Less than a year into the dot-com bubble bursting, on Jan. 3, 2001, the Fed began an easing cycle that would see the federal funds rate move from 6.5% to 1.75% in about 11 months. However, it took until Oct. 9, 2002, before the stock market reached its nadir. That’s a 645-calendar-day wait from initial decrease to actual bottom.
      – As the financial crisis began to take shape, the nation’s central bank reduced the federal funds rate from 5.25% to an eventual range of 0%-0.25%. Though this rate-cutting began on Sept. 18, 2007, the stock market didn’t bottom out until March 9, 2009, or 538 calendar days later.
      – The Fed, once again, began cutting its federal funds target rate on July 31, 2019, with this easing cycle taking rates from a range of 2%-2.25% back to 0%-0.25%. With the coronavirus crash hitting its bottom on March 23, 2020, we’re talking about a 236-calendar-day difference between initial rate cut and actual market bottom.

      To be clear, there is no such thing as a foolproof indicator or metric that accurately predicts when bear markets will occur or precisely where they’ll bottom. But the data here clearly shows that Federal Reserve rate cuts aren’t a good predictor of stock market bottoms. Given that it usually takes multiple quarters for rate changes to have tangible impacts on the U.S. economy, it makes sense that most market bottoms occur much later.

      If the current federal funds rate forecast holds true and history repeats itself, a stock market bottom may not be in the cards until late 2024 or well into 2025.

      Admittedly, this probably isn’t the data you wanted to hear. But as noted, no indicator or metric is foolproof when it comes to calling stock market bottoms.
      …
      https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/do-federal-reserve-rate-cuts-signal-bear-market-bottoms-heres-what-history-says

      1. “However, the nation’s central bank doesn’t appear to be anywhere close to letting its foot off the accelerator.”

        The writer used the wrong metaphor.

        They had the pedal to the metal for a decade, and now they are slamming on the brakes.

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