thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

I Don’t Think It’s A Good Idea To Buy When The Knife Is Falling

A report from Time Magazine. “Jim Ewing is an Airbnb host whose social media post about his property’s occupancy rates sparked the original viral tweet about an Airbnb bust. He’d posted to an ‘Airbnb Superhosts’ Facebook group about his struggles. Ewing told TIME that his property in Desert Hot Springs, Calif., dropped from 80% occupancy to 0% this past spring—and hasn’t rebounded since. ‘We haven’t had a single booking since June,’ he says. Ewing says that he’s currently looking for a long-term tenant for his property instead of continuing to rent it out for shorter periods on Airbnb. ‘It seems like a lot of people are kind of fed up with Airbnb and they’re angry about how some hosts treat them now,’ he says. ‘I’m curious to see if my timing for leaving the short-term market is the right move, and if in six months or 12 months, Airbnb becomes a bad investment for people.'”

WTAQ in Wisconsin. “Sales of existing homes have dropped for eight straight months nationwide. In the Appleton area, it’s no different. In her 30 years in the business, Prospera Credit Union Mortgage Lender Cheryl Ellis has only seen a similar situation once before. She says the recent changes in fixed mortgage rates mirrors what was happening in 2006 and 2007. ‘People were buying their first home, their vacation home, their townhome — things like that. And then the recession hit. So, a lot of that backfired basically. So, we’re close to that. I don’t think it’s going to be that extreme.'”

The Dallas Business Journal. “The downturn in home sales in Dallas-Fort Worth exceeds the collapse in sales experienced during the worst of the Great Recession, according to just-released figures from North Texas Real Estate Information Services.Closed home sales in October were down 37% in Dallas and Collin counties and 32% in Tarrant County compared to the same time last year, according to the latest figures from NTREIS based on Multiple Listing Services data.”

“During the worst impact of the Great Recession on North Texas’ housing market, from 2008 to 2009, closed sales dropped 23% in Dallas County, 26% in Tarrant County and 10% in Collin County year over year, from peak to trough. ‘It’s just crazy,’ said Danny Perez, managing director of DFW-based M&D Real Estate. ‘The numbers are worse than the 2008-2009 drops, which is where we saw the biggest drop in closed sales in the Great Recession. We’ve had a 37% drop in one year, so, we are seeing nearly double what we saw in the Great Recession.’ The number of pending sales, a leading indicator into next month, foretells even slower home sales ahead.”

WKRG in Florida. “The Emerald Coast Association of Realtors presented the latest market and interest rate status’ for the area to the Board of County Commissioners. ECAR treasurer and local realtor Amanda Grandy broke down the housing market from a national range to the local Okaloosa County status. ‘New mortgage originations are down about 50 percent, so if you talk to any lender today they are down half of their business,’ said Grandy. ‘Our sales are going down, our inventory is going up and our buyers are stopping in this market to sell or buy anything.'”

“‘The good thing is a recession is followed by a recovery,’ said Grandy. ‘What the feds are saying is they’re are going to increase interest rates until February, then sit on it for 12 months to let everything kind of stall.'”

From Variety. “Until recently, Los Angeles was the blazing center of a hot national real estate market. Demand was high, inventory low, and tales of feeding frenzies with escalating cash offers from multiple buyers were common. But things cooled down earlier this year. Business manager Eric Fulton of Fulton Management says the impact has been noticeable with his clients, who range from top stars such as Chris Hemsworth and Channing Tatum to up-and-coming digital influencers. Previously, ‘we had anywhere from 10 to 20 refinances or purchases going on at any one time,’ says Fulton. ‘Now it’s really down to a slow dribble.'”

“In New York, many fled the congestion of the city during the pandemic and bought homes in more bucolic upscale areas including the Hamptons. But with the pandemic receding, some of those buyers are regretting their choices. ‘Now, people who somewhat overpaid for properties want to get back to the city,’ New York-based business manager Anthony Bonsignore adds. That spelled trouble for landlords. Property owners in the Hamptons were already having trouble finding renters by early 2022, as travel restrictions finally eased, causing the median rental price in the area to fall by 26% in the first quarter.”

“Multi-family properties including apartment complexes tend to be better bets. Christopher Curry of Forward Business Management had a client who sold five California properties that were earning $40,000 a year and used the proceeds to buy 130 units in Texas that are now bringing in about $850,000 a year.”

KTVB in Idaho. “Most of us have heard the term ‘buyer’s remorse.’ Now we are hearing about some homeowners experiencing just that, but with the house they bought during the start of the pandemic. ‘We’re seeing a big slowdown as far as homes flying off the shelf,’ associate broker at EXP Realty, Greg Langhaim said. Now some folks are experiencing buyer’s remorse. ‘They just didn’t have options,’ Langhaim said. ‘A lot of people waived their home inspections, waived their appraisals, they paid, you know, hundreds of thousands over asking just to get their offer accepted and in hindsight, now they’re thinking, ‘man, maybe we should have waited just a little bit longer, you know, and we would have been able to get what we wanted.’”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Marketing a condo in the Toronto real estate landscape is tricky, says veteran agent Robin Pope. It’s even more complex in the shadowy corner of the market where people try to unload their obligation to take possession of an unfinished property. Interest rates have spiked and buyers of preconstruction units must be preapproved for financing and pass a mortgage stress test before they close the deal. Some can’t afford the monthly carrying costs and want out. ‘They are very motivated because they wouldn’t be able to close,’ Mr. Pope says. ‘They’re saying, ‘I don’t want to lose the farm.’”

“Anna Wong, real estate agent at Strata.ca, was already steering her clients away from some preconstruction projects earlier this year because the bet on future value seemed too high-risk, in her opinion. She believes some early buyers will be hurt. ‘Even if they want to let it go as an assignment, they’re going to lose,’ she says. ‘When the closing date comes and they can’t get the mortgage, that’s when you’re going to see some good deals.'”

“Victor Tran, a mortgage specialist with rates.ca, expects many preconstruction buyers to face a challenge in securing financing. ‘They’re in for a bit of a surprise. They’re simply not able to qualify.’ Mr. Tran spoke with one twentysomething purchaser who lives with his parents in Markham, Ont., and handed a developer a deposit on a preconstruction condo in 2018. The young man would gladly sell the assignment in order to be off the hook for the full amount at closing. But the builder is controlling the price and refuses to budge. All of these forces leave the young man in a precarious situation. ‘He’s willing just to offload this and move on with his life. I think I’ll be hearing a lot more of these stories in the next six months.'”

“Mr. Tran does not blame buyers who have become fearful of purchasing in a declining market. ‘I don’t think it’s a good idea to buy when the knife is falling.'”

From Bloomberg. “The crisis in Chinese property dollar bonds has become so extreme that an analyst who’s been covering the market since its inception in 2005 says meaningful analysis is no longer possible. ‘The proven investment approach is that it won’t go wrong being negative or more negative ahead of the market,’ said Zhi Wei Feng, a senior analyst at Loomis Sayles Investments Asia Pte, who was working on credit research at Barclays Capital in 2005, when the first-ever Chinese real estate firm dollar bond was issued. ‘It is very frustrating when the market is no longer analyzable,’ she said.”

“China’s offshore property notes have plummeted to record lows that reflect deep distress, as defaults mount to unprecedented levels. It’s an even worse picture for junk-rated firms. The average price of Chinese high-yield dollar securities, mostly issued by property companies, dropped to a record low of 50.2 cents this week, according to a Bloomberg index.”

“‘Such prices are certainly not justified for any normal market but they are justified for a black box market which is beyond analysis,’ Feng said. ‘We are going back to a sector of policy risk only while investors have lost all confidence towards the sector and the companies.'”

Stuff New Zealand. “Travis Pidwerbesky​ bought his first home in Lower Hutt with flatmate Karan Malhotra​ just over 11 months ago, just as prices peaked​. Less than a year later, and their bank has told them prices in their suburb of Wainuiomata​ have fallen so severely that they are now in negative equity – meaning they owe more on their home than it is worth. Their home loan interest rate will also almost double when their renewal date arrives at the end of the month – jumping from 3.6% to 6.9%. With a pair of eight-year-old twins to support, Pidwerbesky said his biggest fear was what would happen next month, and whether he would be able to make ends meet.”

“‘Even with that budgeting in, I am about a week out from when I get paid, and I’ve literally got no money. You look at the accounts, and it’s all zeros, and that’s without any kind of additional expenses. I have fees from the kids’ activities and stuff that they are chasing me up for, I’m missing payments, I’m in a pretty bad place basically.'”

“He has taken on a second casual job on the weekends he does not have his children, while Malhotra has signed up as an Uber Eats driver to earn some extra cash. Pidwerbesky is not alone. The Reserve Bank issued a warning on Wednesday that rising mortgage rates and falling house prices could leave many in negative equity. It estimated about 2% of all home loan borrowers are currently in negative equity and that the number could rise ‘considerably’ if house prices fall further.”

“House prices had fallen 11% from their late 2021 peak throughout the country. Price falls in Wainuiomata, where Pidwerbesky bought, are outpacing all other areas in the Wellington region, with a 17.2% drop recorded by CoreLogic. In the wider city of Lower Hutt prices have fallen nearly 16.8% since their peak late last year, to bring the median price down to $822,278. That compared to a 13% fall in Upper Hutt, 11.7% fall in Wellington city and Porirua, and a 7.4% fall on the Kāpiti Coast.”

“Pidwerbesky said he and Malhotra spoke to the bank, and it had not been helpful. ‘ They basically said this is the interest rate – that is what it is.’ With banks recently reporting record profits, Pidwerbesky wanted to know what profit margins they were making on home loans. ‘Are they passing on just the amount of interest they need to? Because you keep seeing how they are making massive profits, and you see the same things with the grocery stores.’ He said losing his home over missed payments would be ‘life-shattering.’ ‘I would be starting from absolutely nothing. It would put me in a really hopeless place. It would be hopeless, it would be horrible.'”

Related Posts
This Post Has 108 Comments

  1. ‘The numbers are worse than the 2008-2009 drops, which is where we saw the biggest drop in closed sales in the Great Recession. We’ve had a 37% drop in one year, so, we are seeing nearly double what we saw in the Great Recession.’

    They aren’t talking about a few sh$thole towns or cities. A bunch of entire counties, and the pending sales are looking way worser.

  2. Ewing told TIME that his property in Desert Hot Springs, Calif., dropped from 80% occupancy to 0% this past spring—and hasn’t rebounded since. ‘We haven’t had a single booking since June,’ he says.

    Die, speculator scum.

    1. This deserves a bit more context. Desert Hot Springs is a total shithole. In the summer temps get to 120 and there is nothing to do there. It is a place where old people used to go to escape winter when land was cheap and they could slum around in the dirt thinking they were winning by beating winter. Then they got the heck out of there before it got hot. These days it is some sort of sketchy methburb of the Inland Empire. It’s the kind of place people move to when they have given up. Why would anyone think a summer vacation rental home would be a good business there? Crazy? On drugs? Functionally retarded? All three?? Regardless, this is not the best sample to predict the demise of AirBNB. That was never going to work out.

        1. Been out there many times. Palm Desert that is, Rancho Mirage. Went through Desert HS once to get somewhere else. I can not believe anyone would think to resort there. Do they even have any Curb and Gutter?

        2. Your results may vary but generally hot springs and 120 degree days don’t go together for most people. Perhaps the 80% was in the winter. They probably should have named it Desert Mud Pit but that wouldn’t have sold any real estate. Most of the town is made up of old tiny stucco boxes that roast in the sun all year with no shade. It is dirtville. Sure the downtown has some modernity but if you think of all of the other places you could go like Palm Springs or anywhere else in SoCal, why would you go there? It’s really only attractive if it is very cheap. So again, not the best spot for a summer vacation rental empire. They do get their share of snow birds though.

          1. 120 degree days don’t go together for most people

            As someone with fair and dry skin, the desert is the last place I want to be. My cousin lived in Cathedral City but that was more than 13 years ago.

  3. ‘Even with that budgeting in, I am about a week out from when I get paid, and I’ve literally got no money. You look at the accounts, and it’s all zeros, and that’s without any kind of additional expenses’

    You’re still a winnah! in my book Travis. You gotta keep the dream alive. Have you thought about etsy?

  4. ‘Multi-family properties including apartment complexes tend to be better bets. Christopher Curry of Forward Business Management had a client who sold five California properties that were earning $40,000 a year and used the proceeds to buy 130 units in Texas that are now bringing in about $850,000 a year’

    Such stark differences in returns is screaming mania. I’m not sure what ‘bringing in’ means but 850k on 130 units sounds like a bull sh$t deal too.

  5. She says the recent changes in fixed mortgage rates mirrors what was happening in 2006 and 2007.

    But…but that means we’re looking at a housing bubble bust. Given that unsound lending is a thing of the past, per the REIC permabulls and their media mouthpieces, this is inconceivable!

  6. “During the worst impact of the Great Recession on North Texas’ housing market, from 2008 to 2009, closed sales dropped 23% in Dallas County, 26% in Tarrant County and 10% in Collin County year over year, from peak to trough.

    Is that a lot?

  7. ‘I’m curious to see if my timing for leaving the short-term market is the right move, and if in six months or 12 months, Airbnb becomes a bad investment for people’

    Denial
    Anger
    Bargaining <- Jim you are here.

  8. “‘The good thing is a recession is followed by a recovery,’ said Grandy.

    You keep telling yourself that, Granby. A savage depression is bearing down on the global financial system, thanks to the Keynesian fraudsters at the central banks and their speculative malinvestment, compounded by the globalist looting and asset-stripping of formerly productive economies and off-shoring of manufacturing to Asia. Great Depression 2.0 is going to make the 1930s look like a walk in the park.

    1. IF usdebtclock is somewhat accurate then by roughly the end of this month the US will officially become a debtor nation. Total assets and liabilities per citizen will reverse direction. As of now still green. My bet is November 22nd.

  9. ‘They just didn’t have options,’ Langhaim said.

    Yes they did. They were greedy and stupid, and now they’re going to get their fool heads handed to them. They could’ve sat out the madness, but bought at the peak of the bubble instead. They purely and simply deserve everything that’s coming to them.

    1. “A lot of people waived their home inspections, waived their appraisals, they paid, you know, hundreds of thousands over asking just to get their offer accepted and in hindsight, now they’re thinking, ‘man, maybe we should have waited just a little bit longer, you know, and we would have been able to get what we wanted.”

      The level of stupid was palpable!

      1. Greed has a numbing effect on the mind. People see others making huge unrealized gains, so they want in too.

        Samuel Clemens said that it’s easier for fool a man, than to convince him that he has been fooled.

    2. That’s the problem with housing….. As an end user, housing is an expense and a loss and no amount of DonkeyTalk of “gains” can change it.

  10. To our resident election deniers: I expect that this morning you’ll be feeling really bad about yourselves after the latest unhinged tirade by Mr. 81 Million Votes. Remember: in our Democrat-Bolshevik People’s Republic of New Democracy, aka “our democracy,” you have been freed from the burden of working things out for yourselves, since our globalist overlords are the “single source of truth.” Hence, challenging approved Narratives and dogma, or disputing that this corrupt gruesome stiff is our most popular president ever, despite stadiums full of people chanting FJB, is prima facie evidence of BadThink. Such ideological deviancy marks you as an ultra-MAGA extremist threat, for which the gulag is the only acceptable remedy. Forward, Soviet!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENEUktOrQV8

  11. UK FBs who just had to get up on that housing ladder are going to be experiencing severe rectal trauma.

    Britain faces longest recession in a CENTURY: BofE delivers grim forecast for the economy as it raises interest rates by 0.75% to 3% – the biggest increase in three decades – sending the cost of unfixed mortgages soaring by thousands

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11385623/Misery-struggling-homeowners-Bank-England-makes-biggest-rate-rise-30-YEARS.html

    1. C’mon, man. You don’t think a corrupt 47-year crony capitalist Capitol Hill apparatchik and his cackling diversity-hire moron of a VP who dropped out of the Democrat primary with 2% support didn’t trounce Orange Man Bad who had massive popular support? You, my Deplorable friend, are an “ultra-MAGA extremist.” But the DNC’s beloved ideological guiding light, Pol Pot, showed his fellow Marxist-Leninists the way when it comes to dealing with “Enemies of the People” and recalcitrants like yourself. Forward!

  14. Linked from Revolver News, in reply to the Atlantic piece begging for a CCP Flu amnesty.

    #NoPandemicAmnesty Mega Thread

    They want us to forgive and forget what they did during the pandemic. We shouldn’t.

    Here’s why:

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1587950321783001088.html

    We will NOT forgive and we will NOT forget. These genocidal tyrants need to hang. All of them.

    The only good globalist is a dead globalist ☠️

  15. HuffPaint — Joe Biden Calls GOP Embrace Of Trump’s MAGA Values A ‘Path To Chaos’ (11/2/2022):

    “President Joe Biden urged voters to reject his predecessor’s “MAGA” values and work to defend American democracy in an impassioned speech Wednesday night, just days after a man violently attacked the husband of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

    Biden, speaking from Union Station in Washington, D.C., gave the televised address just days before the midterm elections, saying democracy was on the ballot amid political violence and voter suppression efforts linked to a cycle of “lies, conspiracy and malice.”

    “In this moment, we have to confront those lies with the truth. The very future of our nation depends on it,” the president said. “We’re facing a defining moment, and inflection point, and we must with one overwhelming, unified voice speak as a country and say there’s no place for voter intimidation or political violence in America.”

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/joe-biden-speech-maga-republicans-pelosi_n_6362fb68e4b05864dfa53c38

    Delegitimize them.

    Deny them authority to govern.

    Weaken, and destroy, the public’s faith in any form of Democrat Party government.

    Make this your life mission, because these globalists want you and your entire family dead.

    1. A debt servicing ratio of 55% will keep ’em out of trouble as they’ll be too busy working. Gawd save the queen!

      1. You mean the King. Chuck’s face should be appearing soon on new bank notes throughout the Commonwealth.

  19. “China’s offshore property notes have plummeted to record lows that reflect deep distress, as defaults mount to unprecedented levels. It’s an even worse picture for junk-rated firms. The average price of Chinese high-yield dollar securities, mostly issued by property companies, dropped to a record low of 50.2 cents this week, according to a Bloomberg index.”

    I’d tread lightly on those. For comparison, it seems like US subprime mortgage bonds very gradually went all the way down to a few pennies on the dollar before reaching bottom in the 2007-2009 crisis. The CR8Ring process had started by December 2006 and continued into 2008.

    1. It’s amazing what happens when you stop yer bond payments and even discriminate against non-Chinese holders. When they started this I said they were burning their bridges to capital. Bloomberg was saying ‘oh they made the payment – at the last minute!’

      How did I know they were burning the bridges? We were reading it in front of our faces.

    1. We lived in Carmel by the Sea. The polar opposite if this impoverished crime ridden gang busting filthy subsidized housing nightmare a few miles north separated by highway, hills and peninsula. I mean Seaside is butt ugly.

      1. “I mean Seaside is butt ugly.”

        Yeah, it’s a former military town.

        I was hang gliding in Marina at the beach last year, and I was surprised at the number of nice homes built along the road to Salinas. Must be retirees as the local economy can’t support that standard of living.

  21. “‘What the feds are saying is they’re are going to increase interest rates until February, then sit on it for 12 months to let everything kind of stall.’”

    Wrong. What Powell is saying is he is going to get the inflation rate down to two percent. He said nothing about sitting on it for 12 months after February.

    3. Yep, Powell was explicit there will be no pivot until inflation is brought down.

      The losers in Congress could go change the Fed mandate, but they are cowards and don’t want that on their record.

      1. “The losers in Congress could go change the Fed mandate, but they are cowards and don’t want that on their record.”

        Absolutely!

  22. Stock futures fall after the Fed dashes hopes for a pivot to softer tightening stance
    Samantha Subin
    Carmen Reinicke
    US futures point to lower open following Fed’s latest interest rate hike
    watch now

    Stock futures fell Thursday after the Federal Reserve delivered another interest rate hike and signaled that no pivot or rate cut is coming anytime soon.

    Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 234 points lower, or 0.73%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 1% and 1.26%, respectively.

    Yields spiked as traders digested the latest rate decision, putting pressure on futures. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note hit its highest level since July 2007 while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield popped 13 basis points to 4.189%.

    Traders had anticipated the central bank’s 0.75 percentage point rate increase and initially read the Fed’s statement as dovish, sending stocks higher on Wednesday after the decision was delivered. Those gains then reversed when Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it was “premature” to talk about a rate hike pause and that the terminal rate would likely be higher than previously stated.

    “We still have some ways to go and incoming data since our last meeting suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected,” he said.
    …
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/02/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

    1. “Stock futures fall after the Fed dashes hopes for a pivot to softer tightening stance”

      They have to relearn this with every. single. meeting. Literally retarded.

  23. Didn’t catch #PedoHitler’s latest unhinged rant, but looks like he’s taking his demonization of anyone who won’t toe the globalist line to new heights. Maybe antagonizing the people who pay the bills for your collectivist agenda could be counterproductive, Dementia Joe.

    Biden ‘is a tyrant’: Furious Republicans say President’s ‘patronizing’ speech saying democracy is ‘not the rule of monarchs’ and the midterms a battle with MAGA ‘dark forces’ won’t divide Americans and distract from his dire record

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11385791/Biden-tyrant-Furious-Republicans-tear-Presidents-patronizing-speech.html

  24. buyers are regretting their choices. ‘Now, people who somewhat overpaid for properties want to get back to the city,’

    happinz.evree.time. As certain as the sun rises and sets since the begininning of time.

    Got fresh comps 33% lower?;)

  26. No more Safe Space bubble for you, David Frum.

    The Atlantic — Why I Logged Off Twitter (11/3/2022):

    “Within hours of Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter, the U.S. political system was shaken by a vicious crime. A man reportedly in the grip of QAnon-style delusions forced his way into the San Francisco home of the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. He allegedly hoped to kidnap the speaker, and interrogate and torture her. She was not at home, but her husband was. The intruder fractured Paul Pelosi’s skull with a hammer.”

    This was an October Surprise that went off script. Nobody believes the globalist gatekeeper narrative.

    “Malicious theories began to circulate. And thanks to Twitter, they quickly migrated from the far-right QAnon fringe to the mainstream of the GOP. A member of the House, a likely subcommittee chair in the next Congress, shared them on a personal social-media account. Senator Ted Cruz winked at them. Ex-President Donald Trump has endorsed them.”

    Clutch those pearls harder.

    “what was going on here was more than a misguided opinion. This was active disinformation. Like many others, I tweeted my disgust.”

    Clutch ’em.

    “People are vulnerable to deceptions that flatter their prejudices. That may well be how Musk himself was deceived by the absurd story about Paul Pelosi: He wanted to believe it and disregarded the warning signs of its untrustworthiness. Now he has proposed selling to anyone who has a few bucks the site’s most important quality-control feature.”

    OH NO! Not the Blue Checkmark! You can’t just sell them for $8 a month.

    “I’m not ready to cut the cord yet. I’m still hoping for the best—but preparing for the worst. You might consider doing the same.”

    https://archive.ph/gLj4d

    Translation: if you don’t censor all the #BadThink I’m not emotionally mature enough to communicate with people I disagree with. See also: all of Reddit.

    “They’re not sending their best”

    1. Ironically, their last thirty or so narratives have been shown to be false/fake. Will this one be the exception?

      Probably not.

  27. Globalists gonna globe.

    New York Times Editorial Board — America Can Have Democracy or Political Violence. Not Both (11/3/2022):

    “Over the past five years, incidents of political violence in the United States by right-wing extremists have soared. Few experts who track this type of violence believe things will get better anytime soon without concerted action. Domestic extremism is actually likely to worsen. The attack on Paul Pelosi, the husband of the speaker of the House of Representatives, was only the latest episode, and federal officials warn that the threat of violence could continue to escalate after the midterm elections.”

    The 2020 election was stolen.

    “The embrace of conspiratorial and violent ideology and rhetoric by many Republican politicians during and after the Trump presidency, anti-government anger related to the pandemic, disinformation, cultural polarization, the ubiquity of guns and radicalized internet culture have all led to the current moment, and none of those trends are in retreat. Donald Trump was the first American president to rouse an armed mob that stormed the Capitol and threatened lawmakers.”

    The 2020 election was stolen.

    “As the range of violence in recent years shows, the scourge of extremism in the United States is evident across the political spectrum. But the threat to the current order comes disproportionately from the right.”

    This is a lie.

    “There have been attacks on conservatives, too: a man was arrested outside Brett Kavanaugh’s home after he said he wanted to kill a justice and in 2017, the shooting of Representative Steve Scalise at a baseball field. But the number and nature of the episodes aren’t comparable, and no leading figures in the Democratic Party condone, mock or encourage violence in ways that politicians on the right and their supporters in the conservative media have done.”

    This is a lie.

    https://archive.ph/PmOC4

    Democrat Party is the party of violence. Antifa and Burn Loot Murder are Democrat Party.

    The New York Times is what President Donald Trump was correctly referring to when he stated that “the media is the enemy of the American people.”

  29. I know everyone says housing is slow to react to changes, but have we ever tried jacking up prospective mortgage payments $1,000 or $1,500/month in under a year?

    Hell, even if buyers agreed to try to absorb these new interest rates if sellers would roll back to 2019 prices, those monthly payments would still be eye watering.

    1. even if buyers agreed

      People wanting to get, or get rid of a house do not act as a collective bargaining unit. People who spend more than they have go broke one at a time.

      As for delays in house price reductions, it takes time for individuals to run out of options.

    2. There’s an area I want to buy into, nice .75 – 1.50 acre lots. Prices from spring are down around 25k – 50k. Nothing has sold in months from my casual looks online each weekend. Same houses sitting, but days on market gets reset every few weeks.

      2. “Same houses sitting, but days on market gets reset every few weeks.“

        Yep, NAR and MLS collusion and corruption.

  30. A reader sent these in:

    Vibe check: In the last 24 hours, I have had three conversations with contractors I’ve either worked with or am currently working with who really need new jobs or they’re going to have to release their labor.

    https://twitter.com/GoodGuyGuaranty/status/1587836604835659776

    Aaron Layman
    @dfwaaronlayman
    Jerome: I realize the housing market is getting destroyed, but rent inflation is still too high. He’s right.

    https://twitter.com/dfwaaronlayman/status/1587884764932952066

    Aaron Layman

    Guess the Higher for Longer speech from Jerome was a bit too much for Airbnvestors.🤔 $ABNB getting torched today for a 13% decline.

    https://twitter.com/dfwaaronlayman/status/1587898957459357696

    Opened up a role two weeks ago and literally have had thousands of applications rolling in, a *major* volume spike vs last year. This is in tech, of course. But lots of folks hunting w/ stocks down + layoffs flooding the talent pool. Tide has turned swiftly toward employers

    https://twitter.com/buccocapital/status/1587982055673139200

    I love zis movie … The cricket is a nice touch.
    #WEF #KlausSchwab

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1588063431441076224

    The Kobeissi Letter

    POWELL: “It is very premature to be thinking about pausing our rate hikes, we have a ways to go.” From Fed “pivot” to bull trap in a matter of minutes.

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1587880105547681793

    The Kobeissi Letter

    BREAKING: WELLS FARGO PREPARES WIDESPREAD LAYOFFS FOR MORTGAGE BANKERS. Their mortgage volumes are down 90% this year.

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1587797773163892736

    Bad news for Powell

    Good news for renters (the 1st they’ve had in a looong time)
    And god-awful news for the #housingmarket
    Hoo-boy, is 2023 ever shaping up to be a terrifying year for home prices…

    https://twitter.com/menlobear/status/1587930996581683200

    1. “Opened up a role two weeks ago and literally have had thousands of applications rolling in, a *major* volume spike vs last year. This is in tech, of course. But lots of folks hunting w/ stocks down + layoffs flooding the talent pool. Tide has turned swiftly toward employers”

      Given that tech seems to have been in the biggest bubble since 2000, I have to wonder how many of these people in fact can’t write “hello world” in Python. I keep hearing the DEI hires have been especially hard hit.

      1. I have to wonder how many of these people in fact can’t write “hello world” in Python.

        Everywhere I have interviewed in the past 10 years they expected you to write a non trivial piece of code that builds and runs correctly. Perhaps large firms were giving the protected classes a pass on that.

      2. I’d tread lightly on those. For comparison, it seems like US subprime mortgage bonds very gradually went all the way down to a few pennies on the dollar before reaching bottom in the 2007-2009 crisis. The CR8Ring process had started by December 2006 and continued into 2008.

        I can’t write “hello world” in python, but I’m pretty sure I’m worthy of hiring for a dev role…

        1. It’s a one liner in python:

          print(‘Hello, world!’)

          “Hello World” became “famous” on pages 5 & 6 of Kernighan and Ritchie’s “The C Programming Language”:

          main()
          {
          printf(“hello, world!\n”);
          }

          2. our non coding fellow

            I could get HP Basic to draw a nice graph, several decades ago. Big mistake on my part.

  33. If this Lie isn’t the straw that breaks the Leftist illegal alien’s drug addicted naked male prostitute’s back I don’t know what will.

    Nolte: Six Reasons Corporate Media Failed to Frame MAGA for Paul Pelosi Incident

    JOHN NOLTE
    3 Nov 2022

    1. Nobody Believes The Media Anymore

    Come on… Ten days before a consequential national election, the same media guilty of all this…

    Russia Collusion Hoax
    Hands Up, Don’t Shoot Hoax
    Jussie Smollett Hoax
    Covington KKKids Hoax
    Very Fine People Hoax
    Seven-Hour Gap Hoax
    Global Warming Hoax
    Russian Bounties Hoax
    Trump Trashes Troops Hoax
    Policemen Killed at Mostly-Peaceful January 6 Protest Hoax
    Rittenhouse Hoax
    Eating While Black Hoax
    Border Agents Whipping Illegals Hoax
    NASCAR Noose Hoax
    The Georgia Jim Crow 2.0 Hoax
    Trump Assaulted Secret Service Agents and Grabbed Steering Wheel of Beast Hoax

    …honestly thought they could gaslight voters into buying anything they report, especially something as Reichstag-ish as this?

    2. Those Same Media Idiots “Botched” The Early Reporting
    This is what I meant by the media’s growing incompetence…

    THEY told us there was a third person in the Pelosi home at the time of the alleged assault.

    THEY told us the alleged assaulter was wearing only his underwear.

    So based solely on what the corporate media told us at the time, the idea this was a politically-motivated attack sounded absurd. A third person let the cops in? The alleged attacker strolled through the streets of San Francisco wearing only his underwear?

    Come on, y’all.

    But then…

    THEN!

    After the corporate media’s own reporting led reasonable people to question the fake media’s MAGA ATTACKER narrative, the fake media retracted the “third person” and “underwear” stories — which leads me to number three…

    3. Did I Mention No One Believes the Media Anymore?

    Gee, how so very convenient that the very facts that undermine the Democrat party’s preferred narrative ten days before a consequential national election were … wrong.

    4. Paul Pelosi’s Alleged Attack Is — LOL — a Leftist

    Here’s what we know fer sher about David DePape… He’s a nudist who lives in a Berkeley hippie commune that flies the gay flag and Black Lives Matter banners.

    He also sounds like a drug-addicted loon.

    He’s also an illegal alien taking advantage of California’s sanctuary policies.

    To begin with, if this guy were indeed MAGA, he would have deported himself.

    5. OHMYGAWD, The Hypocrisy!
    The media are trying to frame us for a crime they support — the physical assault of politicians.

    Ahem…

    Do the corporate media honestly believe we have forgotten how they laughed and made jokes about a Democrat assaulting Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY)?

    Do the media honestly believe we have forgotten how after Rep. Steve Scalise was shot by a Democrat assassin, they dropped the story after 18 hours?

    Do the media believe we have forgotten how they blamed Trump for the leftists who caused violence at his rallies or how they ignored the firebombing of countless pregnancy centers, the SWAT-ing of Republican politicians, and told us Antifa attacks on state capitols were mostly peaceful?

    And do the media honestly believe we have forgotten how after the terrorists in Black Lives Matter and Antifa wounded up to 50(!) Secret Service agents during a 2020 attack on the White House, the corporate media ridiculed Trump over reports of him being rushed to a secure location?

    6. Gobsmackingly Desperate and Dishonest Stuff Like This
    Watch Chuck Todd make a pompous, Class-A fool of himself…

    Pay special attention to the 4:25 mark.

    https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2022/11/03/six-reasons-corporate-media-failed-to-frame-maga-for-paul-pelosi-incident/

    3. “The guy who showered with his daughter is telling you, you’re a bad person.”

      It is said that Satan stood before God and accused humanity of being unworthy of Salvation.

  36. Washington Post — King Obama says democracy ‘may not survive’ if Arizona Republicans win (11/3/2022):

    “Former president Barack Obama used a rally here on Wednesday night to deliver perhaps his bluntest warning yet about the stakes of next week’s midterm elections for America’s system of self-government.

    If the Republican candidates here are successful, Obama argued, “Democracy as we know it may not survive in Arizona.”

    “That’s not an exaggeration,” he added. “That is a fact.”

    https://archive.ph/ryztn

    Drama queen much, pearl clutcher?

    Go back to Kenya.

    1. The Guardian is globalist scum media.

      ‘A really dangerous candidate’: Kari Lake, the new face of Maga Republicanism (11/3/2022):

      “Local news anchor Kari Lake resisted announcing that Joe Biden had won Arizona on election night two years ago. Now, she’s the telegenic new face of Maga Republicanism, poised to possibly become the state’s next governor.

      “We’re dealing with a really dangerous candidate,” said Alejandra Gomez, co-director of the progressive advocacy group Lucha. “This election is incredibly consequential for the future of our democracy.”

      https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/03/kari-lake-trump-arizona-maga-republicanism-midterms

      Biden didn’t win 2020.

      1. These are just some of the goals of that group Lucha:

        “This year, we will be organizing for these People First Economy policies:
        ​
        Paid Family and Medical Leave For All
        Affordable Housing For All
        Affordable Childcare For All”

        Funny how Kari Lake, who wants a secure border and likes capitalism, is the “dangerous” candidate, and the one calling her dangerous is opening pushing for socialism/communism.

        As you say, there can be no negotiating with socialists. We cannot coexist with them in the same country.

      2. Didn’t they meddle in the primaries to push Lake because they thought she would be a walkover? I would dearly love to see that underhanded stunt bite them in the a$$.

        1. They sure did. From NBC news:

          TUCSON, Ariz. — Kari Lake watched her lead narrow in the polls and big players in Arizona’s Republican establishment coalesce around her top rival weeks before the state’s Aug. 2 primary for governor.

          So Democrats stepped in.

    2. “Democracy as we know it may not survive in Arizona.”

      I think he means “Democratic People’s Republic of Korea” democracy.

      Since when is voting out the ruling party undemocratic?

      The Dems are the dangerous ones. They are the ones who want a one party state, and all the tyranny that comes with it.

  38. Joe Biden Prepares Americans for Messy Midterms: ‘We Won’t Know the Winner of the Election for a Few Days’

    CHARLIE SPIERING
    3 Nov 2022

    President Joe Biden on Wednesday tried to set expectations for a messy counting process in the midterm elections, during his speech warning of threats to American democracy.

    “[I]n some cases we won’t know the winner of the election for a few days — until a few days after the election,” he said. “It takes time to count all legitimate ballots in a legal and orderly manner.”

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/11/03/joe-biden-prepares-americans-for-messy-midterms-we-wont-know-the-winner-of-the-election-for-a-few-days/

      1. Hopefully Jeff, next week you will have to change your handle back.”

        🙂 That’s the plan.

  40. I know this has been posted here but my original intention was to show the cost difference for this chick between owning and renting rent $800 a month / mortgage payment $1,500 a month.

    After looking a little further I realized if you are relying on a home inspector to tell you none of the kitchen appliances work buying at the peak may not be your biggest problem.

    She Bought Her House As The Market Peaked. Now She Regrets It.

    Record housing prices and rapidly rising interest rates have many people questioning the value and viability of homeownership: “We’re just house poor now.”

    Venessa Wong
    BuzzFeed News Reporter

    Posted on October 17, 2022 at 1:19 pm

    In May, Riggins’s $202,000 offer on a three-bedroom home with a yard was accepted — but interest rates were rising. “I started to back out so many times, especially when I was going through those bidding wars, and even with this, I didn’t feel good about bidding that much,” she said. “I’ll never forget when [my agent] did the paperwork and turned it in. I didn’t get any sleep at night. … I remember calling her the next morning and was like, ‘I’m thinking about backing out; maybe I should just find a place to rent.’” Riggins said that the agent reminded her that a home is an investment, that when rates were lower she could refinance, and suggested she “cut corners somewhere” or “try to pick up a part-time job.”

    Riggins’s monthly rent had only been $800 a month; her mortgage payment for a home of the same size is about $1,500. The house also needed repairs that her inspector did not catch. None of the kitchen appliances worked. There were electrical issues. The roof needed to be fixed. She found mold under the cabinets. “I feel like I was really screwed over and put in a really bad space,” she said.

    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/venessawong/housing-market-buyers-remorse-homeowner-regret

    1. What’s odd about that is the numbers. Who prices shacks repeatedly at such an exact number? And there’s no pattern to it.

  42. The Financial Times
    Federal Reserve
    Life after 75: Fed’s inflation fight enters new phase
    Peak interest rates will be higher than expected — but it will take longer to get there
    Montage of Jay Powell and Federal Reserve logo
    Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell made clear the central bank remains committed to bringing inflation under control: ‘We have some ground left to cover here, and cover it we will’
    Colby Smith in Washington yesterday

    After the Federal Reserve delivered its fourth consecutive 0.75 percentage point rate rise on Wednesday, it soon became clear the US central bank’s battle against persistently high inflation was entering a new phase.

    In a statement accompanying the increase, which lifted the federal funds rate to a target range of 3.75 per cent to 4 per cent, the committee that sets monetary policy indicated it was preparing to ease up on the accelerator.

    From now on, the Federal Open Market Committee will take into account how far rates have already risen this year as well as the fact it takes time for such increases to filter through to the real economy. That suggests a slower pace of rate rises in the future.
    …

Comments are closed.