A report from the Mortgage Reports. "A new study indicates that first-time home buyers are…
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From the first 6:43 video:
Caledon Home Sales Down 57%! Will It Get Worse?
Honest real estate talk
1.86K subscribers
306 views Nov 5, 2022
Caledon Ontario real estate update for October 2022. See how the Caledon real estate market is doing with no sales bias in this video. Market is scary right now, do a lot of research before signing anything.
The second 14:41 video:
Nashville Update | Housing could Crash 30% per Mark Zandi Forecast
Ethan Flynn, CPA
Nov 5, 2022
According to Mark Zandi and his new Moody’s Analytics housing forecast, Nashville could crash 30%. This is an Analytical approach to the Nashville Tn Housing Market. We look at trends in active listings, median price, mortgage rates, contracts, rent rates.
The third 13 minute video:
November 2022 Denver Housing Market Update – It’s going to get worse
Stacie Duffy, Realtor®
Nov 5, 2022
It feels like the housing market just flat out STOPPED! Pre-Covid, this is pretty NORMAL. We historically have seasonal slow downs, but with inflation, rate volatility, and media fear it has cause a SIGNIFICANT slow down in such a short period of time. Here I show you the data.
“Caledon Ontario real estate update for October 2022.”
Sales activity in Canada is likely seasonal, e.g., kids in school, frozen solid temperatures, etc., so this guy data gathering and presentation needs a re-work. Their prices for detached homes nearly doubled in four years, so they’re drinking the real estate koolaid.
Data from Realtor.com released Thursday showed a steep decline in the median national list price for homes in October, while the share of homes with downward price adjustments has tripled since the start of the year.
The median national list price fell to $425,000 last month, down from a peak of $449,000 in June, while the percentage of homes on the market that have seen a price cut surged to 20.9% last month, doubling since October 2021.
Steve Sisolak decided to shut it all down. Looking at the lights of the Las Vegas strip, Nevada’s Democratic governor was confident casinos and other businesses would reopen after he decided to shutter them early in the coronavirus pandemic. He has no regrets about doing so, believing his decision saved thousands of lives. “Our death count could’ve been double what it is,” Sisolak said earlier this year.
Whatever its virtues in terms of public health, Sisolak’s move may be the single biggest reason he’s in serious danger of losing his job on Tuesday. “COVID has essentially gone away as an issue (nationally), but in Nevada it was a significant thing,” says Kyle Kondik, who analyzes governors’ races at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “Vegas is so dependent on tourism and all that stuff was impacted.”
Sisolak’s race is not the only one in the West where Democrats have to worry. When the year began, it looked like the party’s incumbents in the Midwest would be the nation’s most vulnerable. They’re still at some risk, but Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan and Laura Kelly in Kansas both enjoy polling leads of roughly 5 percentage points over their GOP rivals in the closing days of the campaign. In Wisconsin, Tony Evers is in a tossup race against businessman Tim Michels.
It’s out West where Republicans look ready to make inroads. Democrats are struggling not only in Nevada but neighboring Arizona, where Republican Gov. Doug Ducey is term-limited. They’re also trailing in Oregon, a state where the GOP hasn’t won the governor’s race since 1982. “Nationwide, there’s a lot of anti-incumbent sentiment this year, a sense that people have been in charge in a given seat for a long time,” says Phil Keisling, a former Democratic secretary of state in Oregon. “Voters often say, maybe we should try something else.”
In Nevada, their usual strength in early and mail voting — their vaunted “firewall” of votes from Clark County, which includes Las Vegas — hasn’t materialized. “Twelve days of early voting in the books, and I think it’s safe to say now after years of watching these numbers/trends: The Dems are in trouble in Nevada,” Jon Ralston, founder and CEO of the Nevada Independent, wrote last Thursday.
Another broadcaster is causing headaches for Democrats in New Mexico. Mark Ronchetti, a former weatherman, built up his name recognition with an unsuccessful run as the GOP’s nominee for U.S. Senate two years ago. Like Republicans across the country, Ronchetti has hammered away at the crime issue. On the recent National Assessment of Educational Progress, which showed student achievement declining across the country, New Mexico finished dead last in reading proficiency for 4th and 8th graders.
In Nevada, Sisolak’s response to COVID-19 remains a central issue. Las Vegas tourism has nearly recovered to its pre-pandemic levels, but the number of visitors was down nearly 40 percent in the fall of 2021. “Nevada’s recovery from the COVID recession has been uneven due to the spike in inflation that is hitting working-class families particularly hard; the rise in housing prices that has put homeownership out of reach for many; and lingering ill will among small-business owners stemming from the shutdown,” says David Damore, who chairs the political science department at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
In Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico, Democrats have to worry about growing GOP strength among Latino voters. Although a majority of Latinos — perhaps a supermajority — will still vote for Democrats, the party’s margins probably won’t be as great as they have been in recent elections. And generating turnout among Latinos will also be a challenge. “It’s evident that Republicans are poised … to win their biggest share of Hispanics in the modern era,” The Atlantic predicts.
Democrats are also nervous in the predominantly Anglo state of Oregon. Not only is the governorship at risk, but so are several congressional seats and potentially legislative control as well. Republican state Rep. Christine Drazan, the GOP nominee for governor, is running on a simple theme — it’s time for a change after years of single-party control.
She has hammered away at the issues of crime and homelessness, blaming Democrats for the problems. She hopes to convince voters in time to repeal a drug decriminalization measure. “I ask Oregonians: Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” Drazan said last month. “If the answer is no, then the answer is change.”
“On the recent National Assessment of Educational Progress, which showed student achievement declining across the country, New Mexico finished dead last in reading proficiency for 4th and 8th graders.”
New Mexico’s out of wedlock birth rates have been above 50% for decades. During the COVID lock-downs many parents spent little to no time at all reading to their children or doing elementary math.
Yet the K12 school system is poised to just quietly move the children along to the next higher grade levels. WTF?
Homes have shed 2.6% of value over the past three months. Mortgage holders saw $1.3T (-7.6%) in recently added equity vanish in Q3, the largest quarterly dollar decline on record, and the largest on a percentage basis since 2009, Black Knight said.
“While hitting a record high in Q2, total homeowner equity peaked mid-quarter in May and has been pulling back ever since,” said Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske. “All in, equity among mortgaged properties is now down nearly $1.5T since that point.”
As a result of declining home prices, the number of borrowers underwater on their mortgages has more than doubled. “It’s important to note that — even with 275K falling underwater since May — fewer than half a million homeowners owe more on their homes than as currently valued,” he said. “Historically speaking, that is still extremely low.”
The majority of homes at risk of falling underwater are those that were purchased in 2022 and late 2021 at near peak prices.
“Seventy-four percent of the growth in this one year time period was in the Front Range counties. But over the past decade, 95% of the growth was in the Front Range counties, so definitely a slowing there,” Gedeon said. “Twenty-one counties had decreases in population, including three — Denver, Jefferson and Boulder — that had not had a decrease in their population for over 16 years.”
The Denver area has faced a higher cost of living as well as high housing prices, though Nathan Perry, an economist from Colorado Mesa University pointed out that “the Western Slope has not missed out on this horrific price increase trend,” he said during his overview of the economy in the western part of the state.
With the exception of Douglas County (Highlands Ranch, etc), most of metro Dumver lost population last year. El Paso (Colo Springs), Weld (Greeley) and Larimer (Ft. Collins/Loveland) counties grew.
“But one interesting thing about the population change inside the state is where people moved. They left the Denver area. Western Slope communities as well as Front Range counties of Weld, Douglas, El Paso, Pueblo and Larimer saw population growth.”
Eventually the “sixpack families” can no longer participate; they’re priced-out. Unfortunately, they are probably the folks who perform the “real work.”
“Happy to help anyone who wants to make a move into climate tech.“
Is that a family supporting, breadwinner industry?
Real estate investment trust Hudson Pacific Properties is feeling the effects of a combined economic slowdown and a sluggish return-to-office movement that has kept office leasing depressed for more than two years.
The Los Angeles-based company reported net losses of $6.8M in the third quarter and $10.9M year-to-date in its latest earnings release, although leasing velocity improved and it divested some assets, boosting third-quarter revenue by 14.4% to $260.4M.
Hudson Pacific’s in-service office portfolio was 87.8% occupied and 89.3% leased at the end of the third quarter, according to financial filings. A large tenant move-out in San Jose — Qualcomm left behind 377K SF — pushed that figure down.
Wow, I take off one week and come back to all hell breaking loose in the fintech world. Sadly, it felt like we got news of layoff after layoff. I’ll attempt to round up as many of them as I can here.
I wrote this newsletter on November 3 because I’m leaving on a trip to celebrate my 20th wedding anniversary, so it’s possible that more layoffs took place between then and now. 🙁 What this means for the broader fintech world is not yet clear, but when well-funded companies such as Chime, Stripe and Pleo are cutting staff, it is no doubt sobering for all the players — small or large — in the space.
when well-funded companies such as Chime, Stripe and Pleo
Never heard of them.
Only heard of Stripe.
Gov. Kathy Hochul may lose Tuesday despite Democrats’ overwhelming edge in voter registration, and The New York Times is desperately trying to figure out how the world turned upside-down. Its latest villain: Gazillionaire Ron Lauder, who had the gall big-time to donate to independent committees supporting challenger Lee Zeldin.
After all, it can’t be crime fears (and Hochul’s refusal to do anything about them except to denounce the “conspiracy” to scare voters) that’s leveled the field, even though that and inflation are voters’ top issues.
Yes, Lauder’s $11 million in giving has helped bring pro-Zeldin forces to near-financial-parity with Hochul in the closing weeks.
And how absurd to scream over one rich guy’s spending, when George Soros has spent at least $125 million this cycle, not to mention other Dem billionaires like Tom Steyer and Mike Bloomberg. (Nor that Dems outdid Republicans in “dark money” fundraising in the last cycle.)
All Lauder did was level the field against a candidate who amassed an unprecedented $50-plus million warchest in less than a year after inheriting the governership — by focusing from the start on pay-to-play fundraising, rather than on New Yorkers’ vital needs. And she never stopped, pulling in big “gifts” from the likes of the Dolan family (Madison Square Garden) and the Draftkings CEO in recent weeks.
We’re not sure if the Times is hoping its smear of Lauder pushes Hochul over the top (again, the best polls for Zeldin only show a tie), or if it’s already starting to build a narrative for insisting a Zeldin win won’t be legitimate; probably both.
But if the paper’s goal was still to publish “all the news that’s fit to print,” wouldn’t it have run at least one story on last week’s horrifically brutal West Side rape, allegedly by a perp with a long rap sheet?
“But if the paper’s goal was still to publish “all the news that’s fit to print,” wouldn’t it have run at least one story on last week’s horrifically brutal West Side rape, allegedly by a perp with a long rap sheet?“
That guy shouldn’t have been “at large” on the street. I’m still amazed that the public defender was trying to get a low bail set for this serial predator despite no family home or means of support. WTF?
Boynton Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY On Soaring Inventory And Mortgage Defaults
From the first 6:43 video:
Caledon Home Sales Down 57%! Will It Get Worse?
Honest real estate talk
1.86K subscribers
306 views Nov 5, 2022
Caledon Ontario real estate update for October 2022. See how the Caledon real estate market is doing with no sales bias in this video. Market is scary right now, do a lot of research before signing anything.
The second 14:41 video:
Nashville Update | Housing could Crash 30% per Mark Zandi Forecast
Ethan Flynn, CPA
Nov 5, 2022
According to Mark Zandi and his new Moody’s Analytics housing forecast, Nashville could crash 30%. This is an Analytical approach to the Nashville Tn Housing Market. We look at trends in active listings, median price, mortgage rates, contracts, rent rates.
The third 13 minute video:
November 2022 Denver Housing Market Update – It’s going to get worse
Stacie Duffy, Realtor®
Nov 5, 2022
It feels like the housing market just flat out STOPPED! Pre-Covid, this is pretty NORMAL. We historically have seasonal slow downs, but with inflation, rate volatility, and media fear it has cause a SIGNIFICANT slow down in such a short period of time. Here I show you the data.
“Caledon Ontario real estate update for October 2022.”
Sales activity in Canada is likely seasonal, e.g., kids in school, frozen solid temperatures, etc., so this guy data gathering and presentation needs a re-work. Their prices for detached homes nearly doubled in four years, so they’re drinking the real estate koolaid.
Data from Realtor.com released Thursday showed a steep decline in the median national list price for homes in October, while the share of homes with downward price adjustments has tripled since the start of the year.
The median national list price fell to $425,000 last month, down from a peak of $449,000 in June, while the percentage of homes on the market that have seen a price cut surged to 20.9% last month, doubling since October 2021.
https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/share-listed-homes-price-cuts-143608479.html
Meta Reportedly Preparing ‘Large-Scale’ Job Cuts—Here Are The Biggest U.S. Layoffs This Year
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/meta-reportedly-preparing-e2-80-98large-scale-e2-80-99-job-cuts-e2-80-94here-are-the-biggest-us-layoffs-this-year/ar-AAZAfzF
Steve Sisolak decided to shut it all down. Looking at the lights of the Las Vegas strip, Nevada’s Democratic governor was confident casinos and other businesses would reopen after he decided to shutter them early in the coronavirus pandemic. He has no regrets about doing so, believing his decision saved thousands of lives. “Our death count could’ve been double what it is,” Sisolak said earlier this year.
Whatever its virtues in terms of public health, Sisolak’s move may be the single biggest reason he’s in serious danger of losing his job on Tuesday. “COVID has essentially gone away as an issue (nationally), but in Nevada it was a significant thing,” says Kyle Kondik, who analyzes governors’ races at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “Vegas is so dependent on tourism and all that stuff was impacted.”
Sisolak’s race is not the only one in the West where Democrats have to worry. When the year began, it looked like the party’s incumbents in the Midwest would be the nation’s most vulnerable. They’re still at some risk, but Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan and Laura Kelly in Kansas both enjoy polling leads of roughly 5 percentage points over their GOP rivals in the closing days of the campaign. In Wisconsin, Tony Evers is in a tossup race against businessman Tim Michels.
It’s out West where Republicans look ready to make inroads. Democrats are struggling not only in Nevada but neighboring Arizona, where Republican Gov. Doug Ducey is term-limited. They’re also trailing in Oregon, a state where the GOP hasn’t won the governor’s race since 1982. “Nationwide, there’s a lot of anti-incumbent sentiment this year, a sense that people have been in charge in a given seat for a long time,” says Phil Keisling, a former Democratic secretary of state in Oregon. “Voters often say, maybe we should try something else.”
In Nevada, their usual strength in early and mail voting — their vaunted “firewall” of votes from Clark County, which includes Las Vegas — hasn’t materialized. “Twelve days of early voting in the books, and I think it’s safe to say now after years of watching these numbers/trends: The Dems are in trouble in Nevada,” Jon Ralston, founder and CEO of the Nevada Independent, wrote last Thursday.
Another broadcaster is causing headaches for Democrats in New Mexico. Mark Ronchetti, a former weatherman, built up his name recognition with an unsuccessful run as the GOP’s nominee for U.S. Senate two years ago. Like Republicans across the country, Ronchetti has hammered away at the crime issue. On the recent National Assessment of Educational Progress, which showed student achievement declining across the country, New Mexico finished dead last in reading proficiency for 4th and 8th graders.
In Nevada, Sisolak’s response to COVID-19 remains a central issue. Las Vegas tourism has nearly recovered to its pre-pandemic levels, but the number of visitors was down nearly 40 percent in the fall of 2021. “Nevada’s recovery from the COVID recession has been uneven due to the spike in inflation that is hitting working-class families particularly hard; the rise in housing prices that has put homeownership out of reach for many; and lingering ill will among small-business owners stemming from the shutdown,” says David Damore, who chairs the political science department at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
In Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico, Democrats have to worry about growing GOP strength among Latino voters. Although a majority of Latinos — perhaps a supermajority — will still vote for Democrats, the party’s margins probably won’t be as great as they have been in recent elections. And generating turnout among Latinos will also be a challenge. “It’s evident that Republicans are poised … to win their biggest share of Hispanics in the modern era,” The Atlantic predicts.
Democrats are also nervous in the predominantly Anglo state of Oregon. Not only is the governorship at risk, but so are several congressional seats and potentially legislative control as well. Republican state Rep. Christine Drazan, the GOP nominee for governor, is running on a simple theme — it’s time for a change after years of single-party control.
She has hammered away at the issues of crime and homelessness, blaming Democrats for the problems. She hopes to convince voters in time to repeal a drug decriminalization measure. “I ask Oregonians: Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” Drazan said last month. “If the answer is no, then the answer is change.”
https://www.governing.com/now/how-republicans-might-win-the-west
“On the recent National Assessment of Educational Progress, which showed student achievement declining across the country, New Mexico finished dead last in reading proficiency for 4th and 8th graders.”
New Mexico’s out of wedlock birth rates have been above 50% for decades. During the COVID lock-downs many parents spent little to no time at all reading to their children or doing elementary math.
Yet the K12 school system is poised to just quietly move the children along to the next higher grade levels. WTF?
Homes have shed 2.6% of value over the past three months. Mortgage holders saw $1.3T (-7.6%) in recently added equity vanish in Q3, the largest quarterly dollar decline on record, and the largest on a percentage basis since 2009, Black Knight said.
“While hitting a record high in Q2, total homeowner equity peaked mid-quarter in May and has been pulling back ever since,” said Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske. “All in, equity among mortgaged properties is now down nearly $1.5T since that point.”
As a result of declining home prices, the number of borrowers underwater on their mortgages has more than doubled. “It’s important to note that — even with 275K falling underwater since May — fewer than half a million homeowners owe more on their homes than as currently valued,” he said. “Historically speaking, that is still extremely low.”
The majority of homes at risk of falling underwater are those that were purchased in 2022 and late 2021 at near peak prices.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3902343-home-prices-fall-for-third-straight-month-in-september-black-knight-says
“Seventy-four percent of the growth in this one year time period was in the Front Range counties. But over the past decade, 95% of the growth was in the Front Range counties, so definitely a slowing there,” Gedeon said. “Twenty-one counties had decreases in population, including three — Denver, Jefferson and Boulder — that had not had a decrease in their population for over 16 years.”
The Denver area has faced a higher cost of living as well as high housing prices, though Nathan Perry, an economist from Colorado Mesa University pointed out that “the Western Slope has not missed out on this horrific price increase trend,” he said during his overview of the economy in the western part of the state.
https://coloradosun.com/2022/11/05/job-growth-population-economy-migration/
With the exception of Douglas County (Highlands Ranch, etc), most of metro Dumver lost population last year. El Paso (Colo Springs), Weld (Greeley) and Larimer (Ft. Collins/Loveland) counties grew.
https://newspack-coloradosun.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/11052022-DOLA-DEMOG-Net-migration-2021.png
“But one interesting thing about the population change inside the state is where people moved. They left the Denver area. Western Slope communities as well as Front Range counties of Weld, Douglas, El Paso, Pueblo and Larimer saw population growth.”
Eventually the “sixpack families” can no longer participate; they’re priced-out. Unfortunately, they are probably the folks who perform the “real work.”
“Happy to help anyone who wants to make a move into climate tech.“
Is that a family supporting, breadwinner industry?
Real estate investment trust Hudson Pacific Properties is feeling the effects of a combined economic slowdown and a sluggish return-to-office movement that has kept office leasing depressed for more than two years.
The Los Angeles-based company reported net losses of $6.8M in the third quarter and $10.9M year-to-date in its latest earnings release, although leasing velocity improved and it divested some assets, boosting third-quarter revenue by 14.4% to $260.4M.
Hudson Pacific’s in-service office portfolio was 87.8% occupied and 89.3% leased at the end of the third quarter, according to financial filings. A large tenant move-out in San Jose — Qualcomm left behind 377K SF — pushed that figure down.
https://www.bisnow.com/los-angeles/news/commercial-real-estate/hudson-pacific-properties-q3-2022-116191
Wow, I take off one week and come back to all hell breaking loose in the fintech world. Sadly, it felt like we got news of layoff after layoff. I’ll attempt to round up as many of them as I can here.
I wrote this newsletter on November 3 because I’m leaving on a trip to celebrate my 20th wedding anniversary, so it’s possible that more layoffs took place between then and now. 🙁 What this means for the broader fintech world is not yet clear, but when well-funded companies such as Chime, Stripe and Pleo are cutting staff, it is no doubt sobering for all the players — small or large — in the space.
https://techcrunch.com/2022/11/06/the-fintech-layoffs-just-keep-on-coming/
when well-funded companies such as Chime, Stripe and Pleo
Never heard of them.
Only heard of Stripe.
Gov. Kathy Hochul may lose Tuesday despite Democrats’ overwhelming edge in voter registration, and The New York Times is desperately trying to figure out how the world turned upside-down. Its latest villain: Gazillionaire Ron Lauder, who had the gall big-time to donate to independent committees supporting challenger Lee Zeldin.
After all, it can’t be crime fears (and Hochul’s refusal to do anything about them except to denounce the “conspiracy” to scare voters) that’s leveled the field, even though that and inflation are voters’ top issues.
Yes, Lauder’s $11 million in giving has helped bring pro-Zeldin forces to near-financial-parity with Hochul in the closing weeks.
And how absurd to scream over one rich guy’s spending, when George Soros has spent at least $125 million this cycle, not to mention other Dem billionaires like Tom Steyer and Mike Bloomberg. (Nor that Dems outdid Republicans in “dark money” fundraising in the last cycle.)
All Lauder did was level the field against a candidate who amassed an unprecedented $50-plus million warchest in less than a year after inheriting the governership — by focusing from the start on pay-to-play fundraising, rather than on New Yorkers’ vital needs. And she never stopped, pulling in big “gifts” from the likes of the Dolan family (Madison Square Garden) and the Draftkings CEO in recent weeks.
We’re not sure if the Times is hoping its smear of Lauder pushes Hochul over the top (again, the best polls for Zeldin only show a tie), or if it’s already starting to build a narrative for insisting a Zeldin win won’t be legitimate; probably both.
But if the paper’s goal was still to publish “all the news that’s fit to print,” wouldn’t it have run at least one story on last week’s horrifically brutal West Side rape, allegedly by a perp with a long rap sheet?
https://nypost.com/2022/11/06/the-times-desperate-hit-on-ron-lauder-for-helping-give-zeldin-a-chance-to-win/
“But if the paper’s goal was still to publish “all the news that’s fit to print,” wouldn’t it have run at least one story on last week’s horrifically brutal West Side rape, allegedly by a perp with a long rap sheet?“
That guy shouldn’t have been “at large” on the street. I’m still amazed that the public defender was trying to get a low bail set for this serial predator despite no family home or means of support. WTF?
Boynton Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY On Soaring Inventory And Mortgage Defaults
https://www.movoto.com/boynton-beach-fl/market-trends/
As a distinguished economist advised, “Get what you can get for your house now because it’s going to be a lot less later for years to come.”