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They Lost Their Shirts And They Don’t Have A Shovel In The Ground

A report from the Wood County Monitor in Texas. “A zoning change requested by developer Peter Woolford for Park Central Subdivision in south Mineola gained approval from the Mineola City Council. Woolford said that the original plan is no longer feasible, and if the changes are not granted, the project would be dead. ‘There is a glut of unaffordable housing in Lindale,’ he said. ‘New home construction is coming to a screeching halt.'”

WFTV in Florida. “For months, Orlando’s housing market has been red hot. Now in the last few months real estate agents have seen a seismic shift. Real estate agents like Ray Lopez said they noticed the shift in the market back in May. ‘As realtors, we started getting calls from builders saying ‘hey, we have inventory again’. It no longer put your name on a list and we were ‘call you next year’ Lopez said.”

From WWLP Springfield. “Analysts said shifting economic conditions have ‘rapidly cooled’ the Massachusetts housing market. Compared to September, new listings for single-family homes decreased by 18 percent and 28 percent for condominiums. The median sale price for a single-family home in Massachusetts decreased in that span by more than 4 percent to $547,000.”

The Seattle Times in Washington. “With tech layoffs mounting by the week — including as many as 10,000 at Amazon, according to one media report — Seattle area workers and employers face a loaded economic question.Do the cuts represent a temporary adjustment to a post-pandemic slowdown? Or has an industry that almost single-handedly fueled the Seattle area’s economic boom over the last decade finally peaked? In either case, the layoffs have punctured the Seattle-area tech sector’s image as unstoppable.”

“Some tech companies have blamed the cooling housing market for cuts. Seattle-based Redfin announced this month it would lay off 862 employees nationwide, including 75 in Washington, and shut down its house-flipping business. That followed an earlier cut of 470 jobs nationwide in June. Redfin employed roughly 6,500 workers late last year. ‘It’s not necessarily surprising that some of that demand has diminished and wasn’t necessarily sustainable in the long run,’ said Anneliese Vance-Sherman, an Employment Security Department regional economist who covers the Seattle-area job market. ‘And here we are.'”

Bisnow Los Angeles in California. “A planned sale of the beleaguered Broadway Trade Center to an investor group led by Capri Capital’s Quentin Primo has fallen through. Court documents filed in the bankruptcy proceedings surrounding the building show that co-owner Joel Schreiber entered into an agreement in late October to sell the 1M SF Downtown building to Primo’s Capri Investor LLC for $325M. But several deadlines to provide a $9.5M deposit passed without any funds being deposited.”

“‘There is no viable sale with respect to this specific purchaser,’ attorneys for Starwood Capital-controlled Museum Building Holdings LLC wrote in a Nov. 10 letter to the bankruptcy judge overseeing the case. Without the sale, the risk of foreclosure on the property is very real, The Real Deal reported.”

From My News LA. “Sales of existing homes and median prices in Orange County fell last month, dovetailing with statewide trends, the California Association of Realtors said Wednesday. In October, home sales countywide were down 17.6% compared to September and were 39% lower compared to a year ago, according to CAR.  ‘Homes are still selling relatively quickly at 23 days on the market, one in four homes is selling above list price due to limited inventory, and with median price growth remaining positive in four of the five price segments, home prices are holding up reasonably well,’ CAR President Jennifer Branchini said.”

“The median home price countywide in October was $1.16 million, compared to $1.2 million in September, a 2.9% decline, according to CAR. Statewide, the median price last month was $801,190, compared to $821,680 in September — down 2.5%.”

WOWT in Nebraska. “Encouraging news when it comes to a major product affected by supply chain issues: The price of lumber is dropping. Tim Ferguson, vice president of Christensen Lumber in the Omaha area, tells 6 News there are two key factors: inflation plus higher mortgage rates are pushing down demand for new home construction. As a result, lumber is more readily available. Ferguson said that for a 1,700-square-foot ranch-style home in June 2021, the lumber framing cost was $67,700. That cost has now dropped to $38,500 — a savings of 43%. ‘A lot of the hardwoods, the favorite woods — oak, cherry, and all of that — they are really starting to stabilize and come down,’ said Terry Zuck, who manages Woodcraft of Omaha.”

The Baltimore Banner in Maryland. “ABC Capital, a Philadelphia-based company that is facing mounting lawsuits from foreign and other investors who were sold properties in distressed Baltimore neighborhoods, filed for bankruptcy Tuesday morning. Mary Jayson says she was an Israeli investor with ABC, and is part of a 200-person email thread of investors trying to figure out how to get relief. Like others who spoke with The Banner, she doesn’t understand why American authorities haven’t stepped in.”

“‘People in Israel took out their money from pensions, borrowed money from banks, and lost hard-earned savings,’ Jayson said. ‘For some of us like myself who lost 200,000 USD of hard-earned money and bank loans I am still paying, it meant starting over in life.'”

Hawaii Business. “The number of statewide residential mortgage loans from banks, mortgage companies, credit unions, finance companies and government sources totaled 2,491 in October, a drop of 55.6% from 5,616 mortgages in October 2021, according to the monthly report from Title Guaranty Hawaii. The numbers include new and refinanced first and second mortgages. ‘How is everyone adjusting to this new normal? That answer is cutbacks and layoffs,’ says Pete Castillejos, past president of the Mortgage Bankers Association of Hawaii. ‘There are layoffs and cutbacks and there is a lot of movement in the industry – people are hoping the grass is greener elsewhere or they have been laid off and are looking for something.'”

From Blog TO in Canada. “For one faction of the market, the worst may be yet to come. In Move Smartly’s latest Toronto Area Real Estate Market Report, John Pasalis, President of Realosophy Realty, highlights the ‘red flags’ lurking in the city’s pre-construction condo market. Between declining condo values and rising interest rates, thousands of investors across the city are in distress. And private lenders – the ‘traditional fallback plan’ for those struggling to get a mortgage – have increasingly stepped away from financing new mortgages, too.”

“Pasalis says there could be a ‘ripple effect in the broader resale housing market,’ since the majority of investors are also homeowners. According to the report, the average price of a condo in Toronto hit $739,099 in October, a 12 per cent decline from the peak seen in March. Sales have suffered a worse fate, dropping a staggering 53 per cent on a yearly basis. New listings were down 16 per cent year-over-year. At $1,309,055, the average price of a Toronto home has fallen 22 per cent from the peak seen in early 2022. Year-over-year, sales were down 47 per cent and new listings by 10 per cent.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “In the volatile Toronto-area real estate market, parties on both sides of a sale are often searching for innovative ways to cement a deal. One retro strategy making a comeback is the vendor take-back mortgage (VTBs). Essentially the seller of a property takes on the role of a bank and lends a chunk of money to the buyer to complete the sale. Andre Kutyan, broker with Harvey Kalles Real Estate, points to a house for sale with an asking price in the $6-million range in north Toronto, with ‘interest-free mortgage available’ leading off the remarks for prospective buyers. The odd twist, says Mr. Kutyan, is that the sellers are trying to sell the house at a higher price than they paid for it in March.”

“‘They are hoping to sell it for more when in reality it’s worth 10-per-cent less,’ Mr. Kutyan says of the drop in value from the market’s peak. ‘They’re not going to overpay for a house just to get free money for a short time. That party’s going to end. We could be in this for the long haul.'”

“A little farther north, Mr. Kutyan took a client to view a property on the market under power of sale. The first lender in line is offering a vendor take-back mortgage in order to facilitate a deal, Mr. Kutyan says. Builders purchased side-by-side properties in 2017 and 2018, he says, then went through the lengthy planning and approval process in preparation for building a row of townhouses. Today the original buildings are boarded up and construction has yet to begin. ‘It sounds like they lost their shirts and they don’t have a shovel in the ground.'”

“The owners tried to sell the combined property for about $9-million in 2020. More recently, the court-appointed receiver had taken over and the asking price had dropped to below $8-million before the listing expired. The first mortgagee provided $6.2-million in financing to the owners but the project is worth less than $6-million, in Mr. Kutyan’s opinion. ‘I don’t know if they’re going to get their equity out of the property. They’re hoping to save their skin.’ The lenders who provided second and third mortgages are unlikely to recover any funds, he adds.”

Yahoo Finance. “Aussies who took the pandemic as an opportunity to dip their toes into the regional property market may be regretting their decision now as prices slide. The COVID-19-induced boom for regional housing has burst, according to new data from Corelogic. The report found house values in six of the most popular lifestyle markets recorded falls of 6 per cent or more last quarter. These included Richmond-Tweed (down 11.7 per cent), Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven (down 7.1 per cent), Sunshine Coast (down 7.1 per cent), Gold Coast (down 6.4 per cent), Illawarra (down 6.1 per cent) and Newcastle and Lake Macquarie (down 6 per cent).”

From Bloomberg. “Property agents in Hong Kong are resorting to increasingly wry advertising slogans to attract potential buyers during the city’s worst housing slump in years. ‘Born in the Wrong Time,’ ‘No Tears Left to Cry,’ ‘The Cut Is Deep, The Love Is Real.’ These are just some of the catch lines being used on home listing ads, underscoring the desperation of agents and owners. On one level, it has worked: Social-media sites are now flooded with these over-the-top descriptions. But sellers are still finding it hard to offload properties.”

“The number of unsold new homes in Hong Kong increased to the highest in more than 15 years in the third quarter. Ms Ada Chan, a 42-year-old human resource manager, recently had to stomach a loss of HK$5.4 million (S$947,000) to sell her three-bedroom apartment near the University of Hong Kong for HK$13.3 million. She said it was her biggest loss on property investments. Even with multiple price cuts, it took Ms Chan more than a year and a half to find a buyer for the 500 sq ft (46 sq m) flat.”

“Prices of used homes have declined 11 per cent since the beginning of 2022. Goldman Sachs Group is expecting values to plummet 30 per cent through 2023 from 2021’s levels. ‘I’m not optimistic about the long-term development of Hong Kong,’ said Ms Chan. ‘This is no longer a place where investing in real estate can get you high returns.'”

From Quartz. “Sam Bankman-Fried has quickly become a persona non grata everywhere, including in Africa. Crypto enthusiasts who traded different coins on FTX-linked platforms have been unable to withdraw their investments while crypto startups are facing their own losses. Lucky Uwakwe, one of the pioneers of Africa’s blockchain revolution and CEO of Lagos-based tech firm SaBi Groups, tells Quartz the crypto losses from Bankman-Fried’s fraudulent schemes have been enormous. ‘Many crypto investors are broken-hearted and angry. Some just lost their entire fortunes.'”

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This Post Has 149 Comments

  1. ‘Born in the Wrong Time,’ ‘No Tears Left to Cry,’ ‘The Cut Is Deep, The Love Is Real.’ These are just some of the catch lines being used on home listing ads, underscoring the desperation of agents and owners’

    The most expensive residential real estate in the world. And it has been for a long time, which I bring up every time it crashes. Yes, these bubbles try over and over to collapse. The timeline isn’t like the globalist scum media portray it. ‘Oh it crashed once in 2000 something!’ Not it didn’t and Hong Kong is a perfect example of that.

    As is Mumbai. Once more expensive than London (also held that crown for a while), Manhattan and Hong Kong. You haven’t heard that for 15 years. These peaks have popped up over and over.

  2. ‘There is a glut of unaffordable housing in Lindale,’ he said. ‘New home construction is coming to a screeching halt’

    Never heard of it. Apparently they no longer have a shortage.

  3. ‘As realtors, we started getting calls from builders saying ‘hey, we have inventory again’. It no longer put your name on a list and we were ‘call you next year’

    Remember the new shack lotteries? That was as recent as the spring.

    Right, Phoenix winnahs!?

  4. ‘People in Israel took out their money from pensions, borrowed money from banks, and lost hard-earned savings,’ Jayson said. ‘For some of us like myself who lost 200,000 USD of hard-earned money and bank loans I am still paying, it meant starting over in life’

    Borrowing money to gamble on dilapidated shacks. Wa could go wrong?

    1. I thought members of a certain Tribe prone to wandering in the desert were more shrewd than that when it came to money matters.

    2. Reminds me of the people who bought ” Belch-Fire V-8’s” and then complained about the terrible fuel consumption. Always investigate first before you place your money on the table. Enjoy the Gobble-Gobble day.

  5. ‘highlights the ‘red flags’ lurking in the city’s pre-construction condo market. Between declining condo values and rising interest rates, thousands of investors across the city are in distress. And private lenders – the ‘traditional fallback plan’ for those struggling to get a mortgage – have increasingly stepped away from financing new mortgages, too’

    I’ve watched some pretty long video (I don’t post cuz they’re too long) of lawyers talking about this cluster fook. The article mentions what we’ve known for years. There are 30,000 of these stupid airboxes on the way.

  7. ‘Some tech companies have blamed the cooling housing market for cuts. Seattle-based Redfin announced this month it would lay off 862 employees nationwide, including 75 in Washington, and shut down its house-flipping business. That followed an earlier cut of 470 jobs nationwide in June. Redfin employed roughly 6,500 workers late last year’

    And lost money the whole damn time. Reminds me: I haven’t ridiculed Glen for a while:

    rid·i·cule
    /ˈridiˌkyo͞ol/

    verb
    past tense: ridiculed; past participle: ridiculed
    subject (someone or something) to contemptuous and dismissive language or behavior.

    2. Some tech companies have blamed the cooling housing market for cuts. Seattle-based Redfin announced

      Redfin is a UHS firm, not a tech firm.

  10. ‘tells Quartz the crypto losses from Bankman-Fried’s fraudulent schemes have been enormous. ‘Many crypto investors are broken-hearted and angry. Some just lost their entire fortunes’

    Good luck being poor.

    3. ‘Many crypto investors are broken-hearted and angry. Some just lost their entire fortunes’

      These baggies “invested” with a known mega-donor to the Democrat-Bolsheviks, a criminal enterprise masquerading as a political party. That shows a level of amorality that the universe was bound to punish at some point.

      1. And they bragged about it the whole time, too. Yes, a few lucky ones got in early, cashed back out to dollars, and set themselves up for life. But the ones who thumbed their noses and stayed in the casino far too long — they reap what they sow.

    1. Nothing was done after the 2020 steal, so naturally the Democrat-Bolsheviks upped their election-rigging game.

    4. Secretive group run out of Stanford University including Dork Boy Man Tit’s mom funneled 20 million dollars into Democratic Party:

      https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/1/6/21046631/mind-the-gap-silicon-valley-democratic-donors-stanford

      “With funding from the FTX Foundation, new three-year seed grant program, scheduled to launch in the fall of 2022, will catalyze Stanford-based research to prepare for and prevent the next pandemic”

      Looks like this page is now deleted but I found it using the way back machine with this link

      https://globalhealth.stanford.edu/covid-19/announcing-pandemic-preparedness-seed-grant-initiative.html/

      All evidence of the participants in this gigantic scam are quickly being scrubbed from the internet.

  17. The IWK Health Centre is a major pediatric hospital and trauma center in Halifax, Nova Scotia that provides care to maritime youth, children and women from Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and beyond.

    They’ve seen 27 myocarditis cases in a 6 week period for kids under 18. Normally, they see 2 cases a year. So they are seeing an increase of 117X the normal rate.

    I heard this from a hospital insider. Don’t expect them to publicly say anything. That’s just not the way it works nowadays.

    Since the baseline rate of myocarditis in kids is 1 per 100,000, this suggests that we are seeing 1 per 1,000 kids vaccinating getting myocarditis and it’s probably even more than that especially since the Thailand study showed almost 30% of kids sustain cardiac injury of some sort from the vaccines.

    Since there are nearly 80 M kids under 18 in the US, if all of them got vaccinated, we’d expect to see 80,000 kids with myocarditis which is always very serious.

    That’s a lot of kids. You would think this is a problem, but it isn’t.

    When 2 car owners die, the car manufacturer tells people to stop using the car. I wrote about this recently (see my Stellantis article).

    The reason for this is simple: liability.

    But with these vaccines, there is no liability, so there is no need to set a stopping condition.

    The US government will happily injure hundreds of thousands or millions of kids and it simply just doesn’t matter because there is no liability. That’s just the way it goes.

    Only a few members of Congress will pay any attention to this because they don’t want to be seen as “anti-science.”
    Are you a fact checker?
    Any “fact checker” who wants to fact check my source should contact me. Calling the hospital, getting a denial, and publicizing that as “the truth” is not fact checking.

    https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/myocarditis-in-kids-under-18-cases

    1. Remember, the people who did this all have NAMES.

      They have names, and those names will not be forgotten. The Atlantic can publish some puff piece calling for a COVID “amnesty” but there will be no amnesty. Only a rope ☠️

      2. The worst ones were the folks at the FDA who KNEW there were possible problems, and still allowed the vaccine to be given to children. There’s even some noise about school districts to require it.

        Get those lawsuits ready. But don’t use the myocarditis tactic. Use the lack of prevention of spread. If the vaccinated can still spread COVID, then there is NO public health justification for any kind of mandate.

  18. Compared to September, new listings for single-family homes decreased by 18 percent and 28 percent for condominiums.

    Is that a lot?

      1. Who is generating wealth for the oligarchy. Once you cease to be “value-added,” you become a useless eater and surplus human. But Klaus & Bill have a plan for overpopulation.

    1. Watch oil. Yellen the Felon can claim we’re not in a recession, but broke, unemployed Muricans won’t be doing much driving.
      And yet many of them voted for more of the same. Hard to believe but….

      1. Poetic justice that the low-IQ/low-income demographic voted overwhelmingly for their own financial destruction.

  24. A reader went these in:

    What homebuyers need to earn to afford median priced home in…
    Tampa, FL: $102k
    Nashville, TN: $120k
    Austin, TX: $128k
    New York, NY: $179k
    Seattle, WA: $205k
    San Diego, CA: $213k
    Los Angeles, CA: $222k
    Oakland, CA: $248k
    Anaheim, CA: $254k
    San Jose, CA: $363k
    San Fran, CA: $403k

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1592651502740721664

    In nominal terms, US Retail Sales still appear to be booming, rising 7.5% over the last year & hitting a new high in October. But after adjusting for inflation, the story changes. Real Retail Sales peaked in March 2021 & are down 0.3% over the last year.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1592885189612429312

    The US Housing Market Index (measure of homebuilder confidence) fell for the 11th consecutive month to its lowest level since April 2020. 37% of builders reported cutting prices in November, with an average price reduction of 6%.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1592909031899033600

    This right here nails one of the main reasons a painful recession ahead is so likely. Households are levered to record levels & the cost of that debt has shot up to record levels at the same time. We’re fast hurtling towards ‘debt saturation’, when the consumer will be tapped out.

    https://twitter.com/menlobear/status/1592929514668969984

    Another day another bonkers development in the #FTXScandal. SBF opens up to Vox about his intentions with FTX & his true feelings about its implosion…& boy, does this make him look a lot more evil/unhinged.
    His lawyers must be sprinting for the exit…

    https://twitter.com/menlobear/status/1592995252486295552

    Service industry workers in Sedona, AZ are living in tents.

    https://twitter.com/k_fayrie/status/1592939400107012097

    Paid shills who drove retail to the slaughterhouse by giving unregulated and unregistered financial advise are now shaming their victims. You should hunt these f*ckers down and shame and name them.

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1592816075808600064

    Staples inflation in the UK is running at 21% y/y… BoE… 🤡

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1592827967859822599

    Now that Gemini is under, bodies are gonna start floating. Lat’s see which institutions played the HY on crypto loans…And likely ton of HNW and retail got rekt. Scams are all born and die the same way: born from unconventional monetary policy and kill retail at their funeral.

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1592905666749874177

    Americans took out $66 billion in home-equity lines of credit, in the second quarter, a 40% increase from a year ago according to the WSJ. Instead of borrowing more money, why not get a second source of income. This is a much better way to secure your future.

    https://twitter.com/deaconhayes/status/1592927700926070786

    The city of Nashville has issued 1,940 short-term rental permits since January 2022. Beyond safety issues, the proliferation of short-term rentals can also increase housing prices.

    https://twitter.com/NashvilleScene/status/1592880164869914625

    No one is pushing back any more against my long-held thesis that this most recent boom/bust cycle in #tech has a ton of similarities to the Dot Com boom/bust cycle. Wonder why.

    https://twitter.com/RealMikeLarson/status/1592949863020654592

    Reminder that in crazy 2000 super bubble burst (Market Cap to GDP currently higher than its peak), “market” really started tanking once the Fed pivoted and began cutting rates. S&P 500 bottomed about two years later. Below is the rate schedule.

    https://twitter.com/BP_Rising/status/1592949739976560641

    About 75% of retail traders have lost money on Bitcoin, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

    https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1592875634983780353

    I just smashed my 4K TV in front of over 30 guests at my party because of the Genesis withdrawal freeze today. My wife just took our crying kids and said they’re all spending the night in a motel. This lender has ruined my life and my party. I can’t do this any longer. Goodbye.

    https://twitter.com/functi0nZer0/status/1592947371419533313

    Imagine telling your clients that cash is trash.

    https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1588541922494533632

    US NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX ACTUAL 33 (FORECAST 36, PREVIOUS 38) $MACRO. Lowest ever? Lol

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1592895762417201154

    Liz Ann Sonders

    Housing continues to crash: November @NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 33 vs. 36 est. & 38 in prior month … now starting to flirt with COVID low

    https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1592902310199496704

    And THIS is what results when authorities intervene & suppress natural market forces. You get massive price deformation, you punish those not close to the money trough & you injure everyone when the inevitable reckoning arrives. The seeds of this were sown years ago w/ZIRP & QE.

    https://twitter.com/menlobear/status/1593018016434130944

    We have homebuyer traffic at levels consistent with lockdown, while at the same time, 10s2s as inverted as any of us can remember, and yet we are to find solace in the notion that these guys are going to hike 50 and not 75? Going to hike a bad housing situation into an ugly one.

    https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1593004768594898944

    Winter is coming, 1.4 mill homes under construction while another 468k for sale; just the beginning, no more supply argument, but 5% of mortgages adjustable, saving grace, builders need to stop building, but builders build, thats their kryptonite;

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

    https://twitter.com/Porter_Evans_/status/1592921009664929793

    Those who are pounding the table constantly on Fed pivot should know that when the Fed pivoted in Y2K, the Nasdaq lost most of its value. And when they pivoted in 2007, the housing bubble imploded. Today’s bulls are all waiting for the melt-up to begin.

    https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1592878092196147200

    Word count NYT’s puff piece on SBF:

    “Fraud”: 0
    “Enron”: 0
    “Crime”: 0
    “Illiquid”: 0
    “Stolen”: 0
    “Hidden”: 0
    “Criminal”: 0
    “Back door”: 0
    “He’s getting sleep”: 1

    https://twitter.com/TrungTPhan/status/1592349684471037955

    Lance Lambert
    @NewsLambert
    Real House Price Index: 2022 > 2006
    House price to rent ratio: 2022 > 2006
    House price to income ratio: 2022 > 2006
    We got bubbly—again.

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1593072553157095424

    Used car prices rose 2% year on year in Oct., down from an annual rate of more than 40% in early 2022: US BLS data. At the online marketplace http://Cars.com, the median price for a used vehicle in Oct. decreased more than 3% from a year earlier.

    https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1593056449479180288

    Bond Market is far bigger than the equity one.

    https://twitter.com/TechQn/status/1592984255067729920

    SBF – “$5b of leverage, backed by $20b of assets”
    Here is what he calls assets
    – $5B of Serum coin that they created themselves & had a real market cap of $100M
    – FTT coin that was also created by them
    – illiquid overvalued crypto start up equity
    Unreal.

    https://twitter.com/Chrisjjosephs/status/1592985518635356160

    FTX and Sam have been removed from the website of the World Economic Forum.

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1593033196115218434

    German rents are already lower than current mortgage rates, but the new real estate climate neutrality laws with mandatory refurbishment investments make real estate investing even further uneconomic. One must be nuts to invest in housing in Germany at the moment

    https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1592792434332893184

    If one likes it or not, housing is the business cycle and it does not look pretty 👇

    https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1592985111267807232

    Here comes the layoff explosion

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1593071101718188032

    TARGET SAYS IT HAS LOST OVER $400 MILLION DOLLARS SO FAR THIS YEAR DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SHOPLIFTING AND ‘ORGANIZED RETAIL CRIME’

    https://twitter.com/gurgavin/status/1592849068702994434

    1.5 million Canadian visits per month to food banks to stave off literal starvation while Trudeau funnels 500 more million to Zelensky and his MTV crew

    https://twitter.com/StevenT65674368/status/1592915272951681024

    Ali Wolf

    While I was able to find some silver linings in our mid-month builder survey, the overarching tone is pretty negative. Comments: market is dead; haven’t sold a home all month; buyers are completely on the sidelines; extremely slow

    https://twitter.com/AliWolfEcon/status/1592905149743529986

    1. ‘I just smashed my 4K TV in front of over 30 guests at my party because of the Genesis withdrawal freeze today. My wife just took our crying kids and said they’re all spending the night in a motel’

      Must have been awkward. ‘Is that the time, I must be leaving!’

      2. Let’s just hope these degenerate gambler’s kids didn’t inherit the stupid gene from their old man.

      4. This is the kind of rage that makes me sleep like a baby.

        I can only imagine the joy I’ll feel when Social Insecurity gets wacked as housing prices continue their decade long decline.

    2. Mucho gracias to whoever is providing these links. Great stuff here, and an antidote to the lies put out by the MSM.

    3. “Imagine telling your clients that cash is trash.”

      That’s what virtually everyone was saying a year ago. Oops.

    4. SBF opens up to Vox about his intentions with FTX

      @Menlobear (Adam Taggart) just posted another Tweet and it’s a doozy:

      “Remember the mysterious hack of FTX over last weekend?
      Turns out it was indeed SBF
      Apparently Bahama authorities pressured him into transferring remaining client assets into government coffers”

  25. Is now the time to buy? The debate for Florida real estate
    10 Tampa Bay
    Nov 17, 2022
    To buy or not to buy? That seems to be the question for lots of people sitting on the Tampa Bay sidelines and renting for now. Competition in the housing market is cooling off giving would-be buyers some relief, but with interest rates rising, hesitation to invest is growing.

    Elisha Lopez, Broker/Owner of Ocala Realty World says she’s definitely seen a shift in the housing market. “A year ago we had offers before it even hit the market.” The trend of off-market bids and over-asking price offers has come to a halt, but the home prices have not.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNLQLKWq_Dg

    2:29.

    2. Who in the heck would but real estate here right now? Housing prices are still insanely high.

      Wait. Actually. Yes. Please buy. We need a house and I’d love to pay minimum price for your foreclosure.

    1. The Financial Times
      Markets Briefing
      European equities
      Global shares fall as investors scrutinise economic data
      UK chancellor’s Autumn Statement heralds tax rises, spending cuts and recession
      A Union Jack flutters on the roof of the Bank of England
      London’s FTSE was 0.6% lower as UK chancellor Jeremy Hunt announced a £55bn squeeze on the country’s finances
      George Steer 23 minutes ago

      Global stocks slipped on Thursday, as investors assessed contradictory economic data emerging from the world’s biggest economy and reacted to a gloomy set of forecasts for the UK.

      Wall Street’s S&P 500 fell 1.1 per cent in early trading, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite shed 1.4 per cent. London’s FTSE was 0.6 per cent lower as UK chancellor Jeremy Hunt announced a £55bn “consolidation” of the country’s finances and acknowledged the economy was in recession.

      The regional Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.9 per cent and Germany’s Dax dipped 0.4 per cent, erasing earlier gains.
      …

    2. Markets
      The global stock market rally could be about to meet recession reality
      Published Thu, Nov 17 2022 5:24 AM EST
      Elliot Smith

      Key Points
      – Markets were buoyed last week after U.S. inflation came in below expectations for October, prompting investors to bet that Federal Reserve policymakers would soon have to slow or stop the monetary policy tightening measures they have deployed to try to bring down inflation.
      – Though surging stocks suggest markets are reaffirming hopes of a soft landing from the Fed, BlackRock’s top strategists disagreed, and remain underweight developed market stocks.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/17/the-global-stock-market-rally-could-be-about-to-meet-recession-reality.html

    3. Updated Thu, Nov 17 2022 12:29 PM EST
      S&P 500 falls as rising yields spark recession fears
      Sarah Min
      Alex Harring

      Stocks fell Thursday as interest rates jumped with Federal Reserve officials signaling interest rate hikes to slow inflation are far from over.

      The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 11 points, or 0.04%, after falling as much as 314 points in the session. The S&P 500 slipped 0.49%, while the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.35%.

      Stocks pulled off lows from earlier in the day as shares of Cisco
      jumped more than 3%. The networking equipment company surpassed expectations in its third-quarter report, and issued upbeat guidance. Other tech stocks such as Apple and Intel also led gains.

      Investors weighed comments from St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, who said in a speech Thursday that “the policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive.”

      “The change in the monetary policy stance appears to have had only limited effects on observed inflation, but market pricing suggests disinflation is expected in 2023,” added Bullard.

      The 2-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.437% Thursday morning, raising fears higher rates would send the economy into a recession.

      “I’m looking at a labor market that is so tight, I don’t know how you continue to bring this level of inflation down without having some real slowing, and maybe we even have contraction in the economy to get there,” said Kansas City Fed President Esther George to The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday.

      Stocks vulnerable to a recession and higher rates led losses in the S&P 500. Materials stocks declined, as did consumer discretionary stocks. Defensive stocks such as health care and consumer staples outperformed.

      “Additional monetary tightening and the cumulative impact of this year’s rate hikes suggest recession risks remain elevated,” wrote Mark Haefele, UBS Global Wealth Management chief investment officer, in a note. “We continue to believe that the macroeconomic preconditions for a sustainable rally—that interest rate cuts and a trough in growth and corporate earnings are on the horizon—are not yet in place.”
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/16/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

    4. I have encouraging news for folks who are hesitant to jump into the stock market’s chilly, turbulent waters.

      2. Fed’s Daly sees rates rising at least another percentage point as ‘pausing is off the table’
        Published Wed, Nov 16 2022 11:12 AM EST
        Updated Wed, Nov 16 2022 1:39 PM EST
        Jeff Cox

        Key Points
        – San Francisco Fed President Daly told CNBC that her most recent estimate puts the benchmark overnight lending rate around 5%.
        – She sees a point where the Fed will be able to evaluate the impact of its hikes before moving higher, but that is not now.
        – “Pausing is off the table right now. It’s not even part of the discussion,” Daly said.
        …
        https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/16/feds-daly-sees-rates-rising-at-least-another-percentage-point-as-pausing-is-off-the-table.html

      3. TheHill.com
        Opinion>Finance
        The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the view of The Hill
        Stock market trouble ahead?
        by Desmond Lachman, Opinion Contributor – 11/17/22 2:00 PM ET

        Should stock market investors lose money next year, they will not be able to say they were not warned by the world’s main central banks.

        First, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has been warning that bringing down inflation might require a prolonged period of high interest rates and below trend economic growth. Now, both the Fed and the European Central Bank are warning of heightened risks to the world financial system.
        …
        https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3740293-stock-market-trouble-ahead/

    5. Business
      San Diego rents are dropping. Here’s where they are down the most

      The Townsend, a 277-unit apartment complex in Mission Valley, seen under construction in February. It is now offering one month free for some floorplans.
      (K.C. Alfred/The San Diego Union-Tribune)
      San Diego County saw major rent growth during the pandemic. Now, many markets across the U.S. are seeing declines
      By Phillip Molnar
      Nov. 15, 2022 3:02 PM PT
      …
      https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/story/2022-11-15/san-diego-rents-are-dropping-heres-where-they-are-down-the-most

    6. Do falling rents and steadily rising risk free interest rates perhaps have implications for those 5% cap rates we often hear about?

    1. Deadline
      Tip Us
      Home
      Business
      Tom Brady, Giselle Bündchen, Larry David & Steph Curry Caught In FTX Crypto Fallout With Class Action Suit
      By Dominic Patten
      November 16, 2022 4:23pm
      Larry David, Tom Brady, Giselle Bündchen and Stephen Curry Getty

      “I’m never wrong about this stuff, never,” said a dismissive and scoffing Larry David earlier this year in that now infamous Super Bowl ad for investing in cryptocurrency exchange FTX.

      While the Seinfeld co-creator rejected the wheel, coffee, the U.S. Constitution, electricity, putting a man on the moon and more innovations in the much praised commercial, looks like David might have been right about the now collapsed FTX, for all the good it’s going to do him.

      Along with the likes of Tom Brady, Gisele Bundchen, Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors, Shaquille O’Neal, and Naomi Osaka, David is now a defendant in a class action suit against the now hollowed out FTX and its ex-CEO Sam Bankman-Fried.
      …
      https://deadline.com/2022/11/tom-brady-giselle-bundchen-ftx-lawsuit-larry-david-steph-curry-crypto-1235174541/

      1. The last time I saw Tom Brady was 2 or 3 years ago when he was playing his first year in Tampa. I had already started my screw the NFL I’m not watching these overpaid Social Justice Warriors anymore but I stopped on the channel to see what he looked like out of a Patriot helmet.

        Well on the pad at the back of Brady’s Tampa Bay helmet it said “End Racism” I turned it off and haven’t seen him since.

        I may try to find him this week to see if his helmet says “Save 4K TVs”

    2. NBC Bay Area
      FTX Fallout: Cal Removes Name From Stadium; Lawsuit Involving Celebrities
      By Velena Jones
      • Published November 16, 2022
      • Updated on November 16, 2022 at 9:47 pm

      The fallout from the collapse of cryptocurrency company FTX continues, the latest impact seen at Cal’s football stadium.

      Cal, the first college to ever offer cryptocurrency naming rights, announced Wednesday it is suspending FTX’s naming sponsorship. Logos on the field have already been removed from Memorial Stadium.

      Commercials featuring top celebrities like Steph Curry and Tom Brady advertising the crypto platform are now part of a class-action lawsuit claiming FTX and its advertising misled customers.

      “Crypto lawsuits against celebrities are becoming an epidemic,” NBC Bay Area legal analyst Dean Johnson said. “The whole crypto area is a new frontier for litigation.”
      …
      https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/ftx-fallout-cal-removes-name-stadium/3080517/

      1. Bestselling author Michael Lewis, whose books include The Big Short and Flash Boys, is writing about the former boss of the failed cryptocurrency exchange for his next book.

        FTX, which was the world’s second largest cryptocurrency exchange, filed for bankruptcy in the US last week. Its founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, also resigned as chief executive.

        A leaked email from CAA agent Matthew Snyder, seen by The Ankler, revealed that Lewis has been embedded with Bankman-Fried for the last six months.

        https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/nov/14/ftx-crypto-king-sam-bankman-fried-new-book-michael-lewis

        1. “Lewis has been embedded with Bankman-Fried for the last six months.”

          When does the movie come out?

          1. Yawn. He’s great at writing popular explanations of these trainwrecks after they happen. I prefer reading about them before they happen.

            I remember people telling me how much I’d love “The Big Short” movie after laughing off my warnings about the housing bubble circa 2004.

    4. DealBook Newsletter
      Investor Losses From FTX’s Implosion Are Growing

      The crypto exchange’s collapse is stoking fears of contagion across the industry. Meanwhile, FTX’s founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, is still speaking out.

      By Andrew Ross Sorkin, Ravi Mattu, Bernhard Warner, Sarah Kessler, Stephen Gandel, Michael J. de la Merced, Lauren Hirsch and Ephrat Livni
      Nov. 17, 2022, 8:32 a.m. ET

      The breadth of the global fallout from FTX’s collapse has continued to emerge. Temasek, Singapore’s state-backed fund, said on Thursday that it had fully written down its $275 million investment in the crypto exchange, joining the Silicon Valley firm Sequoia Capital and SoftBank, the Japanese tech conglomerate, in declaring their stakes worthless.

      The development comes as Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX’s founder, delivered a series of bombshell admissions in a candid direct-message exchange with Vox’s Kelsey Piper. Among them: S.B.F., as Mr. Bankman-Fried is known, blamed “messy accounting” for the company’s losses, which could run into the billions.

      Contagion fears are growing — and hitting notable investors. Mr. Bankman-Fried convinced Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of the investment firm SkyBridge Capital, to buy $10 million worth of FTT, the digital token of FTX, as a condition for Bankman-Fried to inject $45 million into SkyBridge in September, according to The Financial Times. FTT’s value has plunged by more than 90 percent over the past two weeks.

      Is Genesis Global Capital, a big lender to crypto hedge funds, at risk? The firm faces $175 million in exposure to FTX and has hired the restructuring firm Alvarez & Marsel and the law firm Cleary Gottlieb as advisers as it faces a liquidity crunch. Genesis halted customer withdrawals and any new lending on Wednesday.

      Why it matters: Genesis is owned by Digital Currency Group, one of the biggest players in the crypto industry. Founded by Barry Silbert in 2015, D.C.G. is a crypto conglomerate that owns dozens of companies, including the news site CoinDesk and the asset manager Grayscale Investments, which runs the world’s largest crypto fund. It’s also backed by big-name mainstream investors, including SoftBank’s Vision Fund 2 and Alphabet, the parent company of Google.

      Shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust have fallen 20 percent in the past two weeks, and are down 75 percent for the year.

      Losses at Grayscale could run deep. Grayscale is where Bitcoin touches retail investors and Wall Street. Anyone could buy into Grayscale. Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management and dozens of other mutual funds are, or have been, holders of Grayscale investment products to get exposure to crypto assets.

      Other firms are under pressure, too. The crypto exchange Gemini, which is owned by the Facebook-famous Winklevoss twins, temporarily halted some of its withdrawals on Wednesday.

      FTX faces big legal challenges as investors seek justice. S.B.F. said on Twitter on Wednesday that he was wrong to think FTX held enough reserves to cover customer withdrawals, a possibly tantalizing admission.

      David Boies, the prominent lawyer involved in some of the biggest cases in recent years, has signed on to represent FTX investors in a class-action lawsuit. They are seeking billions from not just Bankman-Fried, but also celebrity FTX promoters, including the comedian Larry David and the football player Tom Brady.

      Lawmakers are also gearing up. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Wednesday that the crypto market needs more oversight, adding that the sector’s links to the broader financial system could cause wider stability issues. And the House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing on the recent travails of the crypto market next month.

      S.B.F. said what?

      Sam Bankman-Fried, the embattled founder of FTX, has already bewildered many by continuing to tweet about his crypto empire even as he faces potential investigations into its implosion. But in an eye-opening interview with Vox over Twitter direct messages, he spoke candidly about FTX’s fate, regulation, ethics and more. (S.B.F. later tweeted that he believed he was talking with a friend and didn’t intend for these to become public.)

      Here are some of the highlights.

      – S.B.F. derided regulators with an expletive, adding, “They make everything worse. They don’t protect customers at all.” (He later tried to walk those comments back.)

      – He regretted having FTX file for bankruptcy protection: “If I hadn’t done that, withdrawals would be opening up in a month with customers fully whole.” Filing for Chapter 11 meant putting people in charge who “are trying to burn it all to the ground out of shame,” he wrote.

      – S.B.F. played down previous comments about the need to avoid unethical behavior even if it serves a greater good, lamenting “this dumb game we woke westerners play.” He also commented on the approval that Changpeng Zhao, an FTX investor-turned-rival who abandoned a deal to save S.B.F.’s firm, has gained in recent days: “Is it because he’s virtuous? Or because he had the bigger balance sheet.”

      In a bankruptcy court filing on Thursday, lawyers for FTX criticized S.B.F.’s “incessant and disruptive tweeting.”
      …
      https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/17/business/ftx-crypto-contagion-sbf.html

    6. The Morning
      Why the Crypto Collapse Matters

      The failure of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX put the entire industry under scrutiny.

      The New York Times
      FTX’s founder, Sam Bankman-Fried.
      By Erin Griffith
      Nov. 17, 2022, 6:36 a.m. ET

      How could a $32 billion company vaporize overnight? That’s what anyone watching the sudden collapse of FTX, a hot cryptocurrency start-up that plunged into bankruptcy last week, might be puzzling over.

      It will take time — and multiple federal investigations — to fully understand what happened behind the scenes at FTX, a Bahamas-based crypto exchange. But the impact is already becoming clear. Lawmakers are calling for more oversight. Crypto die-hards are trying to distance themselves. Critics of this sector of finance are crowing. And for those of you who had, until now, managed to ignore the rise and rise and rise of crypto as a phenomenon? First of all, good for you. And second, you may want to watch this one play out. I’ll explain why shortly.

      But first, here is the simplest explanation of what happened that I can manage: FTX let people and companies buy and sell digital currencies, holding billions of dollars’ worth of customer deposits. FTX’s founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, also created an investment fund that trades cryptocurrencies called Alameda Research. The businesses were supposed to be separate, but this year, Alameda needed cash and apparently dipped into FTX’s customer deposits. Then, this month, FTX customers became worried about their deposits and rushed to withdraw them, setting off a bank run and pushing FTX into bankruptcy.

      The apparent commingling of funds between Alameda and FTX is highly suspicious and could lead to criminal fraud charges and lawsuits. The Securities and Exchange Commission and Justice Department are investigating. I want to explain today why the disintegration of FTX matters — it’s more than simply one man’s financial catastrophe.
      …
      https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/17/briefing/crypto-collapse-ftx.html

      1. Buttcoin is still hovering around $16,500. Is this the work of the PPT? With the sequential scandals happening I would expect it to be in free fall.

        1. Buttcoin is still hovering around $16,500. I
          I thought for sure it would drop into the low teens at a maximum and possible lower.
          Shows how much I know about crypto.

  30. New FTX CEO John Ray: Never in my career have I seen ‘complete failure of corporate controls’
    CNBC Television
    Nov 17, 2022
    New FTX CEO John Ray, who oversaw Enron during its bankruptcy proceeding, said in a court filing that he’s never seen such a “complete failure of corporate controls.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIgO97JYQ80

    2:19.

    1. The Financial Times
      FTX Trading Ltd
      New FTX chief slams ‘complete failure of corporate controls’ at crypto exchange
      John Ray criticises ‘absence of trustworthy financial information’ at sprawling digital assets group
      Veteran insolvency professional John Ray said FTX was the worst case of corporate failure he had seen in his more than 40-year career
      Kadhim Shubber and Joshua Oliver in London and Sujeet Indap in New York 3 hours ago

      Sam Bankman-Fried’s failed FTX business empire misused customer funds and lacked trustworthy financial statements or any real internal controls, according to the new boss of the collapsed $32bn crypto exchange.

      John Ray III, a veteran insolvency professional who oversaw the liquidation of Enron, said in a US court filing on Thursday that FTX was the worst case of corporate failure that he had seen in his more than 40-year career.

      “Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here,” he wrote.
      …

  32. Pennsylvania Lawmakers Vote To Impeach Philly’s Soros Prosecutor

    Josh Christenson • November 16, 2022 3:05 pm

    Pennsylvania lawmakers voted on Wednesday to impeach Philadelphia district attorney Larry Krasner (D.), capping a months-long campaign to remove the George Soros-backed prosecutor on the heels of a historic murder wave.

    Krasner is the latest Soros-backed prosecutor to face a removal effort. Los Angeles district attorney George Gascón (D.), who took $4.7 million from the liberal megadonor, narrowly dodged a recall election earlier this year. And San Francisco voters in June ousted radical prosecutor Chesa Boudin (D.). Krasner received $1.7 million from Soros’s Justice and Public Safety PAC.

    Krasner has overseen fewer convictions and higher rates of recidivism since taking office in 2017. Philadelphia, which experiences nearly half of the violent crime in the state, recorded 562 homicides in 2021—its highest number to date. Murders have more than doubled in Pennsylvania since 2016.

    https://freebeacon.com/politics/pennsylvania-lawmakers-vote-to-impeach-phillys-soros-prosecutor/

    1. Marybunny
      @Marybunny6
      ·
      Nov 16
      Replying to
      @SteveGuest

      Thank God it wasn’t a little Russian girl! 🤦🏼‍♀️

    1. I remember listening to a radio show not long after the death injection came out. A caller said ‘my pharmacist said don’t take it. It’ll kill ya.’ The radio guy said, ‘don’t listen to yer pharmacist!’

    1. I think they should go Cuban Missile Crisis on these hardly peaceful protesters…

      It shall be the policy of this Police Department to regard any cellphone camera shoved in the face of a police officer with demands of name and badge number by any protester attempting to disrupt the lives of law abiding citizens as an attack by the protester on the officer and citizens of the United States requiring a full retaliatory response upon the protester.

      Forty Years Ago: The Cuban Missile Crisis
      Fall 2002, Vol. 34, No. 3

      Kennedy Library Observes Fortieth Anniversary of Missile Crisis

      On Monday evening, October 22, Kennedy addressed the nation. He was clear and direct:

      It shall be the policy of this nation to regard any nuclear missile launched from Cuba against any nation in the Western Hemisphere as an attack by the Soviet Union on the United States requiring a full retaliatory response upon the Soviet Union. . . .

  39. ‘A zoning change requested by developer Peter Woolford for Park Central Subdivision in south Mineola gained approval from the Mineola City Council. Woolford said that the original plan is no longer feasible, and if the changes are not granted, the project would be dead. ‘There is a glut of unaffordable housing in Lindale,’ he said. ‘New home construction is coming to a screeching halt’

    Capitalism works.

  40. Portland, OR Housing Prices Crater 34% YOY As Housing Liquidation Accelerates Across West Coast

    https://www.movoto.com/or/97215/market-trends/

    As one national housing analyst observed, “The rush out of housing is happening across the US. Not just on the east and west coasts. Losing your shirt is always part of the housing equation.”

  41. ‘Compared to September, new listings for single-family homes decreased by 18 percent and 28 percent for condominiums. The median sale price for a single-family home in Massachusetts decreased in that span by more than 4 percent to $547,000’

    That’s the whole state. There are likely pockets of serious crater.

      1. DeSantis, for all his power and experience, does show signs of vulnerability to pressure from the Establishment. Trump is too strong, but Ron might cave.

    1. Let us know how that stands up to time in a few days. The problem with a scandal rag like Dailymail is that the probability of truth is low. It can be worse than no information at all.

  47. California faces $25 billion budget deficit, the state’s legislative analyst projects
    KCRA
    Updated: 10:49 AM PST Nov 17, 2022
    Infinite Scroll Enabled
    Ashley Zavala
    California Capitol Correspondent
    SACRAMENTO, Calif. —

    A new report from the California Legislative Analyst Office on Wednesday warned the state faces a $25 billion budget shortfall next year and said with the threat of a recession, revenue estimates represent the weakest performance California has experienced since the Great Recession.
    …
    https://www.kcra.com/article/california-faces-25-billion-budget-deficit-states-legislative-analyst-projects/41982419#

    2. California Legislative Analyst Office on Wednesday warned the state faces a $25 billion budget shortfall next year
      Lack of IPOs and lack of capital gains. Gonna be interesting to see how and what they cut, and how much they try to hide or push into future years.

  48. Our captured, crooked regulators are either complicit or criminally negligent when it came to FTX. This is my shocked face.

    EXCLUSIVE: FTX boss Sam Bankman-Fried hired former chief finance regulator nicknamed ‘Crypto Dad’ to forge surprising relationship with SEC chair Gary Gensler – before firm collapsed right under the noses of regulators owing billions

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11441355/FTX-founder-hired-former-chief-finance-regulator-land-formal-introduction-SEC-chair.html

  50. My wife is asking me about people trying to sue Larry David for convincing them to throw away money on crypto.

    Didn’t his advert basically ridicule the HODLers?

  51. NPR
    Business
    FTX investors are unable to access their money, shaking crypto investors’ confidence
    November 17, 20224:31 PM ET
    Heard on All Things Considered
    Chris Arnold 2016 square
    4-Minute Listen

    The collapse of FTX, one of the most prominent platforms for crypto exchange, left investors unable to access their money. And it’s shaking crypto investors’ confidence more broadly.
    …
    https://www.npr.org/2022/11/17/1137501882/ftx-investors-are-unable-to-access-their-money-shaking-crypto-investors-confiden

  54. Is the proposed cryptocurrency regulation a Trojan horse for declaring cryptocurrency too-big-to-fail and legitimizing bailouts for the next time a cryptocurrency startup goes belly up?

    1. The Financial Times
      Opinion Cryptocurrencies
      Beware the proposed US crypto regulation — it may be a Trojan horse
      Creating a bespoke regime will inevitably become a route for traditional financiers to avoid their own tougher rules
      Hilary Allen
      There is a danger that crypto legislation, such as that proposed for stablecoins, is misinterpreted as a government seal of approval, encouraging sceptics to invest their money
      Hilary Allen 18 hours ago
      The writer is professor of law at the American University Washington College of Law

      Following the spectacular failure of crypto exchange FTX International, there have been renewed calls for crypto legislation (including from the industry itself). But many of the proposals so far would be worse than the status quo — at least for the general public. Crypto firms such as FTX were involved in drafting many of the mooted US bills. The exchange’s implosion should not become a pretext for rushing these into law.

      It is unfortunately true that many of FTX’s users have suffered mightily. The good news, though, is that the broader economy hasn’t suffered as a result of its failure (the economic fallout from crypto flops such as Terra/Luna and Celsius this year was similarly limited). Since crypto isn’t integrated with the traditional financial system, the pain has not spread to those who chose not to invest in crypto in the first place.

      US banking regulators in particular have stood firm against the merging of crypto with traditional finance. Legislation that legitimises crypto could very well break this down, in which case future crypto failures will be more likely to disrupt broader economic growth. Government officials may even feel compelled to step in with bailouts when the next crypto firm implodes. Policymakers should beware legislation that positions crypto as yet another financial market that is “too big to fail”.

      There is also a danger that crypto legislation may be misinterpreted as a government “seal of approval”, encouraging sceptics to invest their money. This is particularly a risk of the proposed stablecoin legislation. Right now, the primary use case for stablecoins is speculating in decentralised finance, not — as is often claimed by industry proponents — for making payments. Stablecoins are not a great way to make payments for a number of reasons, but the proposed bills would all extend some form of government safety net to them. If that encourages people to start using them for payments, then it potentially puts governments and central banks on the hook in the event of future stablecoin runs.

      Legitimisation is not the only Trojan horse embedded in these crypto bills. Any legislation that creates a bespoke crypto regulatory framework will create opportunities for traditional financial assets to migrate into the new regime and so sidestep existing financial regulation. This problem is unavoidable because it’s impossible to define “crypto asset” (or “digital asset” or “digital commodity”) in a way that excludes traditional financial assets.
      …

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