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Did The Market Really Drop, Or Did The Market Just Quit Having Over-List Price Offers?

A report from Business Insider. “Flippers are facing the music as the housing market begins to show signs of cooling down. Austin Rutherford told his 700,000 followers he will likely take a loss on a recent flip in Ohio. Fellow TikToker Jeremy Mathis says he’s factoring in 10% price drops to prospective deals in Miami. Rutherford purchased the Hilliard, Ohio home last year for $248,000 and says he put in between $5,000 and $10,000 worth of work. Now, he’s receiving offers for only $260,000, which after closing costs and agent fees will likely put him in the red. ‘I’d rather take the loss and move on and go find another deal and make it back rather than try and make some money with a whole bunch of headaches,’ he told Insider.”

“Florida-based Mathis purchased a 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom property in Fort Worth, Texas for $340,000 in June and spent $45,000 on renovations. Mathis and his brother were hoping to get $450,000 for the home based on projections from June. Instead, they listed in October and have subsequently dropped the price about every 10 days, where they’ve now lowered the ask to $399,000. At this point, Mathis says they just want to get rid of it. It’s a much gloomier picture compared to last year, Mathis says, when ‘people were getting above asking price when the houses were not fixed up.’ ‘We’re not in that market anymore,’ he told Insider.”

The Rogersville Review. “Buyers are regaining some bargaining power as the local housing market continues slowly readjusting. It’s still very much a sellers’ market in the NE Tenn. – SW Va. area and, given current conditions, will be that way for a while. But prices have been flat since May, when they peaked at $250,000. Last month the median was $232,000. What’s happening is some sellers are looking at the market and recognizing that the price growth rate has run out of steam. They see they’re not going to get as much as they could last year, but what they can get is still pretty good compared to what they paid.”

“Last month 289 contracts went to closing at a price that was below the asking price. The average discount was $16,887. That’s in line with the discounts in September ($17,193) and August ($16,575).”

Click Orlando in Florida. “Between economic uncertainty and booming interest rates, the once red-hot housing market is starting to cool off. A monthly mortgage payment on a $350,000 home with today’s 7.2% interest rate, which is the bank national average, is around $800 more compared to when rates were 3.5%. ‘The increase in the valuations from last year, I don’t want to say they’re a wash, but you have to take everything into consideration,’ said Kristin Mazza, a real estate consultant for Keller Williams Heritage Realty. ‘A $400,000 house that really sold for $475,000 last year may be selling for $385,000 today.'”

WPBF in Florida. “‘We’re seeing a little bit of shock. The interest rates have consistently been going up since about May. And they’ve been going up over and over, as the Feds increase the overnight interest rates. And it’s impacted the markets,’ said Kevin Kent, broker associate in Palm Beach Gardens. ‘You’ve got to be a lot more realistic when you’re putting the property on the market. You can’t be pulling comps from things that sold in March or April.'”

The Oklahoman. “Home sales and pending sales plummeted while the supply of houses on the market soared in October, as upheaval in housing kept heaving, leaving many buyers and sellers both in the lurch. Asking prices, however, aren’t as firm, as sellers are quicker to reduce them to attract more attention from home shoppers. Many sellers are still learning that the market has shifted, said Heather Davis, a real estate agent.”

“‘They’ll go on the market, then have a really big price reduction within a week, and I think it’s because people are doing this let’s-try-it price, and then not selling in the first week, and they realize they’ve overshot, and when they get it to the price that was in line with the comps it’s selling within that first week,’ Davis said.”

The Daily Journal in Indiana. “An ‘overheated’ housing market has cooled down in Johnson County and across the state. Inventory in Johnson County increased by 127% in October, compared to October 2021, according to housing data from F.C. Tucker Company. Pending home sales are down 31%, compared to this time last year. These numbers mean the market is balancing itself out, and that is not a bad thing, nor a sign of a market crash, said Victor Perr, an area Realtor with F.C. Tucker.”

“Perr, for the first time in two years, has had very few showings on some of his listings, and no offers, as well. He also has spoken to a number of real estate agents who are also seeing more pending offers fall through, for various reasons — another occurrence that was almost unheard of two years ago. For the past two years, homes have also been selling over asking price, because of the competitiveness to outbid other buyers. So, many sellers are still listing their homes at higher prices, and then having to drop in order to sell, said David Brenton, an area veteran Realtor on the south side of Indianapolis.”

“Sellers six months ago could list a home for $260,000, and expect $275,000. Now, with fewer offers coming out, sellers likely would now have to drop the price to sell it for around $240,000, Brenton said. ‘Did the market really drop, or did the market just quit having over-list price offers?’ Brenton said.”

“Homes are still selling, just not as quickly, which is not bad, Brenton said. An increased inventory with slower sales is not a reason for concern — even in Johnson County where new subdivisions are building out with hundreds of new homes, Brenton said. In Johnson County, 316 homes were listed as of Friday, and 216 additional homes were pending. Of those, 59 of the pending are new homes and 104 of the active listings are new, he said. ‘It’s not a gloom and doom situation by any means. I mean, Johnson County is in a good spot,’ Brenton said.”

The Arizona Daily Star. “Internet-based home buyers, who entered the Tucson market two years ago with eye-popping cash offers, are powering down. Known asiBuyers, companies such as Opendoor and Offerpad have slowed down on purchasing homes in Tucson for touchups and resale. And, Redfin has closed its iBuying division, citing rising interest rates. ‘To prosper in a housing downturn that could last at least through 2023, we have to simplify our business,’ Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman said in a statement. ‘We’re closing our iBuying business, RedfinNow, because maintaining a profit with rising interest rates would make our offers on homes insultingly low.'”

“‘Most of them were using algorithms across all market and real estate is local,’ said Jodi Koch, president of the Tucson Association of Realtors. ‘Realtors are excited that these iBuyer platforms are stepping away. We’re seeing a lot of price reductions as sellers realize the market has shifted.’ Koch said the lack of housing and rising interest rates will make the price of a resale home more realistic. ‘It’s not going to be a crazy market anymore,’ she said. ‘I see 2023 as more stable and that homeowners and buyers need to — more than ever — reach out to a Realtor.'”

“The biggest benefactor is the home buyer, who will no longer likely have to compete with multiple cash offers. Stories of making 15 to 20 offers on homes — only to have them all rejected for cash — may be a thing of the past. And home sellers are expected to adjust their expectations which could help bring down the cost of a resale home.”

The Manteca Bulletin in California. “Builders at River Islands at Lathrop earlier this year sold as many as 30 homes a week. Now sales have dropped off to 6 homes a week. River Islands CEO Susan Dell’Osso anticipates the 15,001-home planned community will finish out the year with more than 600 closed escrows. In Manteca, long-time Realtor Jessie Barrett said homes are still selling, just not as fast and as many as before.”

“Barrett noted new home builders in Manteca are also offering financial incentives such as buy downs to make deals work. They are also working with resale agents. In October, Manteca’s median listing price was $625,000 and the median selling price was $550,000. While both numbers are down compared with September the median prices are still 2.6 percent higher when comparing October 2021 with October 2022. In October, Lathrop’s median listing price was $708,000 and the median selling price was $675,000. While both numbers are down compared with September the median prices are still 18 percent higher when comparing October 2021 with October 2022.”

“In October, Tracy’s median listing price was $749,000 and the median selling price was $655,000. While both numbers are down compared with September the median prices are still 2 percent higher when comparing October 2021 with October 2022. In October, Mountain House’s median listing price was $970,000 and the median selling price was $980,000. While both numbers are down compared with September the median prices are still 10.4 percent higher when comparing October 2021 with October 2022.”

From Blog TO. “Canada’s housing market downturn may be starting to slow, but property values are continuing their downward spiral. In a recent report, Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist at RBC, said that while the downturn may be coming to an end, property values are ‘still clearly coming down.’ Canada’s aggregate MLS Home Price Index (HPI) fell for an eighth straight month in October. Although the 1.2 per cent drop from September was the smallest since May, it’s now declined 10 per cent since the February peak.”

“After experiencing some of the most sizable gains in the early days of the pandemic, properties in several small Ontario cities have also felt the largest losses nationwide. From February to October, property values fell 22 per cent in Cambridge, and 18 per cent in London and Brantford. In Kitchener-Waterloo, Kawartha Lakes, and Hamilton-Burlington, the MLS HPI has declined by 17 per cent since the spring peak. While Toronto has only experienced an 11 per cent decline, Hague expects prices in the city will continue to fall in the near term.”

“On a yearly basis, home resales in Toronto were down 49.3 per cent in October, while new listings were down 11.5 per cent. ‘The market downturn may be in a late stage but it doesn’t mean things are about to heat up again,’ Hogue said. ‘We expect high— and still-rising—interest rates will continue to challenge buyers for some time. This will keep activity quiet for a while longer even if it stabilizes near current levels. We think benchmark prices will keep trending lower until spring.'”

From Bloomberg. “Sweden’s home-price decline accelerated in October, as the Nordic country gripped by the most severe housing slump in three decades shows what may lie ahead for many other developed economies. One of the pacesetters for a global housing downturn fueled by soaring inflation and central bank moves to curb price increases, Sweden has now seen home prices drop by about 14% from a peak earlier this year, according to Valueguard, which compiles the data. Prices have slid for seven straight months.”

“The slump is unusual in a country where previous corrections have been shallow and short-lived, and many young home buyers have never experienced a housing market crash. Home prices in Canada are now down 10% from the peak. In addition to Sweden, peak-to-trough declines of as much as 20% are forecast for countries including the US, the UK and New Zealand.”

“‘A lot of homes are being sold at levels around the asking price, and bidding wars are rare,’ Marcus Svanberg, chief executive of Lansforsakringar Fastighetsformedling, a realtor, said in a statement. ‘We don’t expect to see a real recovery until spring next year at the earliest.'”

“Declines are led by detached houses, which are particularly vulnerable as electricity prices soar. A report published last week by realtor organization Maklarstatistik showed that the price drop is twice as large in southern electricity zones. The central bank’s expected 18% total drop looks like a best-case outcome. Along with surging mortgage rates (doubled to 3.6% for new mortgages), that suggests higher impairments at Swedbank and Handelsbanken — followed by SEB and Nordea — with weaker revenue also likely as lending slows. A price slump of 30% or more may be needed to trigger a sizable increase in bad debt, which looks increasingly realistic.”

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This Post Has 139 Comments

  1. ‘Sellers six months ago could list a home for $260,000, and expect $275,000. Now, with fewer offers coming out, sellers likely would now have to drop the price to sell it for around $240,000, Brenton said. ‘Did the market really drop, or did the market just quit having over-list price offers?’

    You know Dave, I appreciate you bringing in a philosophical angle to the crater. How did that chicken get on the other side of the road, was it an egg first? And similar conundrums.

  2. ‘To prosper in a housing downturn that could last at least through 2023, we have to simplify our business,’ Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman said in a statement. ‘We’re closing our iBuying business, RedfinNow, because maintaining a profit with rising interest rates would make our offers on homes insultingly low.’

    You should know Glen, as you’ve taken quite an a$$ pounding.

    rid·i·cule
    /ˈridiˌkyo͞ol/
    noun: ridicule

    -the subjection of someone or something to contemptuous and dismissive language or behavior.
    “he is held up as an object of ridicule”

    Similar:
    mockery

    verb: ridicule; 3rd person present: ridicules; past tense: ridiculed; past participle: ridiculed; gerund or present participle: ridiculing

    -subject (someone or something) to contemptuous and dismissive language or behavior.
    “his theory was ridiculed and dismissed”

    1. ‘At this point, Mathis says they just want to get rid of it. It’s a much gloomier picture compared to last year, Mathis says, when ‘people were getting above asking price when the houses were not fixed up.’ ‘We’re not in that market anymore’

      Yet Glen and the other steaming piles couldn’t make money in this environment. Makes one wonder just how valid the statement really is.

      1. This clown still thinks he’s going to take a small loss. He will be lucky to get 200k. Best get that wife on the pole now

    2. “would make our offers on homes insultingly low”

      Aw so sweet Kelman. But you had no problem luring victims into your overpriced shacks. You have ruined many a lives, but I suppose that’s ok…but you can’t insult people. Got it. Are you related to SBF…I see a pattern.

  3. ‘I’d rather take the loss and move on and go find another deal and make it back rather than try and make some money with a whole bunch of headaches’

    Dammit Austin, yer giving it away. Yer also bargaining.

  4. ‘even in Johnson County where new subdivisions are building out with hundreds of new homes, Brenton said. In Johnson County, 316 homes were listed as of Friday, and 216 additional homes were pending. Of those, 59 of the pending are new homes and 104 of the active listings are new’

    The Manteca article has this too. These guys weren’t even using the MLS in the spring.

  5. From the Manteca, CA piece: “River Islands requires its home builders to secure minimum 20 percent down payments.”

    That’s gotta feel like a cold north wind.

    1. “Barrett noted new home builders in Manteca are also offering financial incentives such as buy downs to make deals work.”

      Anything to clear out inventory.

      1. “In October, Manteca’s median listing price was $625,000 and the median selling price was $550,000.”

        For a bedroom community that is 90-minutes from Silicon Valley if there’s no traffic. Hehe, no traffic?

  6. ‘A lot of homes are being sold at levels around the asking price, and bidding wars are rare,’ Marcus Svanberg, chief executive of Lansforsakringar Fastighetsformedling, a realtor, said in a statement’

    How would you like to answer phones for these guys:

    Ring ring!

    Good morning, Lansforsakringar Fastighetsformedling, how can I direct yer call?

    1. Haha yeah I was puzzling over that name as well.

      Looks like in Swedish:

      försäkring = insurance (akin to German “Versicherung”)

      fastighet = real estate (akin to fastig, fixed)

      förmedling = agency (akin to German “Vermittlung”)

    1. Citizen! Our globalist overlords have declared that they are the “single source of truth,” which spares the peasantry from working things out for themselves. Approved Narrative purveyors such as the NYT, WaPo, etc. have decreed that allegations of election steals are “Big Lies” that are “baseless” (since captured and corrupt courts and investigative bodies refused to even look at the evidence of fraud). Therefore, anyone who deviates from the approved Narrative is, ipso facto, a “MAGA Republican extremist” who poses a danger to society that can only be remedied by a boxcar trip to the gulag. Forward, Soviet!

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENEUktOrQV8

  8. This is a pearl clutching article.

    The Guardian — ‘Verified’ anti-vax accounts proliferate as Twitter struggles to police content (11/21/2022):

    “As the troubled social media platform Twitter rolled out a paid verification system and laid off thousands of content moderators, health misinformation accounts on the social network began pushing their messages to a wider audience than ever.

    Under Elon Musk’s new direction for Twitter, several anti-vaccine accounts with tens of thousands of followers are now verified by paying $7.99 a month for Twitter Blue.”

    Clutch those pearls harder, globalists.

    “Verified accounts are frequently seen as reliable and trustworthy, and Twitter’s algorithm gives them a higher ranking in search results, replies and follow recommendations.

    “There’s a sense of legitimacy that comes with it,” said Barry. “By verifying this anti-vaccine account, they’re kind of verifying all of the misinformation it shares … it makes people think, ‘Oh, well, this is a verified account. This must be true.’”

    OH NO! Not the Blue Checkmarks!

    “But “now it looks like Twitter’s giving these accounts some legitimacy”, said Peter Hotez, a vaccine scientist and dean of tropical medicine at Baylor College of Medicine.

    “It looks like now they’re going to move in the wrong direction, and actually help promote groups that are touting anti-vaccine, anti-science disinformation.”

    COVID vaccines are poison.

    “One phrase that is picking up steam in the anti-vax world is “died suddenly”, which may be used in official media reports to talk about any sudden death, making it harder to moderate automatically.

    A Died Suddenly Twitter account, which was verified through the paid Twitter Blue program, plans to release a documentary on Monday that promotes vaccine misinformation.

    The vaccines to prevent severe disease and death from Covid-19 are extremely safe and effective, with millions of people around the world vaccinated.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/21/twitter-anti-vax-health-misinformation

    That last quoted sentence is a LIE.

    Experimental mRNA gene therapy gives you blood clots, heart attacks, strokes, and cancer. The “vaccine” is what is killing you, not COVID.

    1. I mentioned a radio guy took a call from a lady just after the death injection came out. She said, my pharmacist said don’t take the shot, he replied don’t listen to yer pharmacist. This morning I’m driving and the same guy is talking with an expert. Says he and his wife got 4 shots. He got CCP virus twice, went into the hospital for 7 days with a laundry list of infectious diseases including e colli and sepsis. Then his wife got the same things. He asked, did the injections cause this? Expert, no. Just how big a dumba$$ can you be? I’ve never had those things, didn’t get a death injection and can’t remember the last time I’ve had a cold.

      Another Promo for ‘Died Suddenly…’

      https://www.bitchute.com/video/BKMZW0HUgieu/

      2:18.

    2. The world is about to get a lesson on what is meant by “verified.” All it means is that the account is connected to an official entity with an official payment method, and is not an imposter. That is, the IDENTITY of the entity is verified, not necessarily the truth of what that entity says. The entity has the right to say something (within existing laws), while the comment section has the right to debate and debunk. Welcome to America.

  11. The ADL, which tried to have Trump permanently banned from Twitter, must be in paroxysms of rage.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump

    Between Saturday and Sunday Trump’s twitter account followers grew back to its original 83 million followers. Those were likely already in his account. They were just deposited back in it.

    Since then an additional 4.4 million followers have come into his account. These are new people.

    We’ll see if this pace of new additions continues.

    Trump as per his agreement with Truth Social can’t have his stuff reposted for at least 5 hours. This five hours could be used to curate his tweets on Truth Social. The Tweets on Truth Social with the most likes over the next five hours would be reposted to Twitter. There would be a sign on each of Trump’s curated twitter posts that said. Curated Posts. If you want to see Trump unfiltered–sign up for Truth Social.

  13. “ Stories of making 15 to 20 offers on homes — only to have them all rejected for cash — may be a thing of the past. “

    No, they’re not. You can have offers galore. Just find a recent comp and then list your shack 20% below that. It’ll be sold by the weekend. And if realtors were really interested in helping their clients this is what they should be preaching. Because that 20% off number will look like a dream number this time next year.

    2. It’s all about pricing to market reality. Price 10% above market, receive no offers. Price 10% below, create a flood.

  14. A reader sent these in:

    Kira Mason
    @kmasonrealtor
    When I’m working with a buyer, this is a sight to behold 😍

    https://twitter.com/kmasonrealtor/status/1594381053388795904

    In Phoenix: 10% of active inventory has an asking price below original purchase price
    Of this 10%, top iBuyers own almost half
    3 out of 4 active units from top iBuyers would sell at a loss based on current asking price
    And they still own close to a $1B in inventory right now

    https://twitter.com/jasonlewris/status/1594412078479118341

    Im going to start a SmallerPockets podcast

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1594404712781991936

    John Wake

    We Have 2 Different Markets in Phoenix

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1594403632010518529

    87,000 $META employees watching Twitter running with 90% less employees

    https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1594030166116044800

    Toronto & Southern Ontario Housing Smash

    560 Bridge Street East, Belleville
    Sale fell through, I KNOW BEFORE YOU PUT YOUR STUPID REPLIES IN!
    But this isn’t from February or March, THIS IS FROM JUNE! 😱. The most shocking part…..#HousingGoByeBye

    https://twitter.com/TOHousingSmash/status/1594299254268461064

    Germany steps up plans to print cash for energy blackouts. Brilliant 🔥🔥🔥 Lousy energy policies have consequences. 😰

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1594402472151240704

    Still irritating that these guys have more treasuries and a lot more MBS than they did even a year ago, when official CPI was already 6.8%, and Case-Shiller was running at 18.8% YOY. This QT is really roaring along.

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1593361156948692993

    I wonder why no one ever said, “The Fed’s gonna do ZIRP and QE until something breaks”? ‘Cause something got broke.

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1522771196344881153

    On February 1, 2022, Fed Chair Jay Powell had a meeting with these senior members of the now-bankrupt crypto firm FTX:
    -Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO and Founder
    -Mark Wetjen, Regulatory Strategy
    -Ryne Miller, General Counsel
    -Zach Dexter, US Derivatives
    -Brett Harrison, President

    https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance/status/1594501026224435202

    Uber has no cars.
    Airbnb has no real estate.
    Crypto exchanges have no crypto.
    This is the new economy.

    https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1594433591483977728

    The economy is healing

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1594536465295323136

    Lisa Abramowicz

    In 2019, pre-pandemic, households saved 8.8% of their disposable income. That saving rate jumped to 16.8% in 2020, the highest on record. In 2021 the saving rate moderated to 11.8%, and in September it stood at 3.1%, near its lowest level since 2008.

    https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1594496767227215872

    “Reverting to 3% inflation, which we view as the upper bound for benign sustained inflation, is easy from 4%, hard from 6%, and very hard from 8% or more. Above 8%, reverting to 3% usually takes 6 to 20 years, with a median of over 10 years.”

    https://twitter.com/MebFaber/status/1594390647460356097

    2. When I’m working with a buyer, this is a sight to behold 😍

      “And when I’m working with a seller, it is the stuff of nightmares.”

    3. Uber has no cars.
      Airbnb has no real estate.

      Business models that shift capital expenditures to the user. See also Amazon deliveries.

    4. ‘Powell had a meeting with these senior members of the now-bankrupt crypto firm FTX’

      But they didn’t have an accounting department…

      1. They had an accounting department. You’d have to. So why is the media casually accepting this falsehood? And they were audited too. Here’s why: say yer an upfront crypto exchange. Do you want the accountants to take off with yer money? So you are an outright ponzi operator: do you want the accountants to take off with yer money? Cuz if you don’t have internals controls, somebody will take yer money.

        1. They had an accounting department.
          My very limited knowledge of Americans owning Foreign Corporations makes me think he would have had to have a International tax expert either on staff or on speed dial. I had 1 foreign Corp and damn, I couldn’t even figure out what or how many categories I fit into for US tax purposes.. (if I recall he had 130 corporations, most foreign I would guess.)

        2. The guy who oversaw the wind-down of Enron is now overseeing the wind-down of FTX, and he says that there were no accounting controls at all. The accounting “department” seems to be SBF and a couple cronies disappearing monies:

          “Newly appointed FTX CEO John Ray III scorched Sam Bankman-Fried for a total absence of trustworthy data and lack of financial safeguards.
          Ray, who led the restructuring of Enron, said that FTX lacked adequate human resources, cybersecurity, accounting and auditing teams.
          Ray disclosed that he had no confidence in the balance sheet statements of Alameda, FTX, or their subsidiaries.”

          https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/17/ftx-ceo-shreds-bankman-fried-never-seen-such-a-failure-of-controls-.html

        3. Bitcoin broke below $16000 today — currently at $15770. I recall that dorkhead Raoul Pal and other crypto bros were counting on a “wall of money” from institutional investors to inflate the price of all cryptos, BTC in particular. Even a couple months ago I watched a video where some crypto-bro was trying to raise the value of his alt-coin to make it attractive to institutional investors.

          Well, NO institutional investor is going to invest in ANY kind of crypto after this debacle. With no regulations or FDIC, every exchange for every coin and token is vulnerable to a 1930-style bank run and total losses. No pension manager will touch that. Nor do I think pension managers will walk around with cold wallets. No exchanges + no hope of adoption as currency –> South Sea tulip bulbs.

          1. The poor fools and idiots that threw their money into the wind tunnel must be pretty angry right about now.

      2. Developing…Short seller Marc Cohodes gave Bloomberg the story on FTX in July and they wouldn’t print it. Cohodes “FTX is not a crypto scam. It is a massive money laundering Ponzi scheme fraud with a crypto wrapper.This has nothing to do with crypto. This shit needs to stop’” hedgeye.com

        I’d disagree with part of this statement. It has everything to do with crypto. Crypto and scam are synonymous.

        Reuters reported that SBF had a “backdoor” in FTX’s book-keeping system, which allowed him to move customer money around without triggering internal compliance or accounting red flags.

        “Reports that the funds stolen from FTX were actually sent to the Securities Commission of The Bahamas are incorrect. Some funds were stolen, and other funds were sent to the regulators.”

        Last weekend, we reported on the mysterious $662 million outflow of tokens that suddenly hit FTX….The hacker reportedly transferred some funds using the crypto exchange operated by Kraken And as Bloomberg reported earlier in the week, the hackers who stole the funds have become one of the world’s largest holders of the Ether token….As PeckShield further detailed earlier today, the FTX hacker is swapping ETH for BTC via renBTC bridge protocol…

        The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) can sanction the address where they are holding the hacked ETH and thereby make the ETH worthless.

        Hence the sudden urgency to discard the ETH for bitcoin via RenBTC bridge …
        Probably they had a tip off that OFAC is planning to do this tomorrow…
        Now who would have the political connections with the administration to know that info in advance?
        https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/ftx-hacker-starts-dumping-massive-haul-ether-tokens

        2. “Reuters reported that SBF had a “backdoor” in FTX’s book-keeping system, which allowed him to move customer money around without triggering internal compliance or accounting red flags.”

          I have to call BS right here. All modern database software has incredible granularity designed into its auditing and logging features especially involving financial transactions.

    6. I love this one:
      —-
      Uber has no cars.
      Airbnb has no real estate.
      Crypto exchanges have no crypto.
      This is the new economy.
      —-
      Nobody owns anything, and we’re all supposed to be happy.

      I note that these are all generally non-partisan Tweets. Twitter is a lot more than politics, and that’s why Elon bought it.

      1. “…Nobody owns anything, and we’re all supposed to be happy….”

        And in the new economy

        You will eat bugs and like them..

  17. This is making the internet rounds – folks are going to be in for a big surprise when things get back to normal times and the market was not flooded with govt and central bank liquidity

    I’m mid 30s make in Bay Area, Eng Director at FAANG. Was just starting to make good salary but stock has tanked and both net worth (down to ~2.5M) and income is severely down for me (bunch of my NW was still invested in my company and tech).

    Meanwhile, I’m looking around the Bay Area and there are so many 10M+ houses, each of them being fantastic and very desirable. I’ve been a top 1% student and now a top 1%, high performing professional all my life. I’ve been hard working, bold, driven for as along as I can remember but now worry that I’ll never be able to afford a house like these. I’m not even sure if I’m on the right path — don’t know if even Senior Directors or VPs at FAANG can afford these even though they are so few in number and they are the very best compensated people in the world.

    Who are the people that are affording these mega rich homes and how are there so many of them (given there are so many of these lavish houses across the US)? I would assume some of these are owned by businessmen and business families but are there so many successful big businesses in the world that they can account for ownership of all these lavish houses? I thought the chances of running a successful big business was just as rare as being big in any other field.

    Just feeling down and wondering if I’m on the wrong path.

    4. Hey schmuck, here’s your solution – Quit staring at 10mil homes. Try driving driving to Point Reyes, staring out at the ocean and doing a gratitude list.

    5. “I’ve been a top 1% student and now a top 1%, high performing professional all my life.”

      It’s difficult to soar like an eagle when you’re working with turkeys.

      1. bunch of my NW was still invested in my company and tech

        “bunch of my NW was still invested in my company and tech”

  18. FDA Says Telling People Not to Take Ivermectin for COVID-19 Was Just a Recommendation

    “The government engaged in a singularly effective campaign here to malign a common drug that has been used for a very long time and has been dispensed in billions of doses. It’s one of the most famously safe drugs in the history of human medicine. And when people did exactly what the FDA said to ‘Stop it. Stop it with the ivermectin,’ I don’t understand how that would not be traceable back to the FDA,” Kelson said.

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/fda-says-telling-people-not-to-take-ivermectin-for-covid-19-was-just-a-recommendation_4873897.html

    Comments:

    Then why did I have to order Ivermectin from a pharmacy in INDIA??? I can’t believe these people aren’t recognized as the liars they are! I don’t see how they can look at themselves in the mirror!

    The entire FDA ‘leadership’ belongs in prison awaiting trial for mass murder and eventual execution.

    Good Doctors lost their medical licenses or were threatend for recommending or prescribing Ivermectin.
    Even now pharmacy’s will not fill the prescription from a doctor for Ivermectin in many places.
    Patients family’s begging and begging hospitals to give it to their family member’s dying because of hospitals death treatments of starvation, ventilators and remdesivir killing so many people and they have the balls to say it was a recommendation.
    FU you POS.
    Every last one of you POS murdered people.
    Kept Husbands and wife’s away from each other and kept them away from even their children as they were dying and begging all in the name of a farce pandemic.
    People were far to nice to loser POS doctors and hospitals when they did this.
    Try that with my family and it would be a choice you would very quickly regret.

    The FDA is part of the government, the same government that made ivermectin impossible to get at a pharmacy and in many states, goes after health providers that prescribe it. Pfizer, moderna, gates and fauci run the show.

    We at the FDA recommend that you not take Ivermectin. However, if you do, we will censor you and the doctor who prescribed it and will see to it that your doctor’s license to practice is revoked and he will lose his job and his standing within the medical community. But, it’s not mandatory.

    FDA and the AMA both made sure that any physician who tried to prescribe this medication and any other know treatment that could have saved thousands was summarily shut down and kicked out of practice.
    Too late FDA you are busted and we will make it a mission to bust you up.
    THAT IS A PROMISE.

    My husband is a doctor, so I was fortunate to be able to take ivermectin when I got Covid last fall.
    Within a few months, he could still prescribe it, but no pharmacy in the area would fill the prescription. Where did that directive not to fill the prescription come from?

    1. No mask? Chinese woman tied up and forced to publicly kneel under strict COVID measure
      Spotlight on China
      Nov 21, 2022
      Haizhu District in Guangzhou, southeast China, is going through a lockdown under the country’s strict “zero-COVID” policy. A woman went outside without a mask. After arguing with COVID workers, she was tied up and made to kneel in public. The case aroused harsh public criticism.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mxdS31cNmRU

      1:31.

    2. Patients family’s begging and begging hospitals to give it to their family member’s dying because of hospitals death treatments of starvation, ventilators and remdesivir killing so many people

      While the hospital staff would dance on Tik-Tok

  19. ‘We’re closing our iBuying business, RedfinNow, because maintaining a profit with rising interest rates would make our offers on homes insultingly low.’

    What are the remaining offers going to look like without the iBuyers using dumb borrowed money to outbid end users?

  20. An overlooked memory card in Cobb County, Georgia, with uncounted ballots changed the final results of a special election, officials have said.

    The county’s Board of Elections and Registration voted to recertify the results of the Nov. 8 Kennesaw City Council special election during a Nov. 18 meeting, according to a statement.

    “The recertification was necessary after workers discovered a memory card had not been included in the previous results. The additional ballots resulted in a change in the Kennesaw City Council Post 1 Special Election,” the release said.

    Madelyn Orochena was originally declared the winner of the special election. However, when additional ballots were located on the memory card, Lynette Burnette was shown as the winner of the race by 31 votes, officials told local media.

    “Unfortunately, once found we did upload it, and it changed the outcome of the Kennesaw City Council race,” Janine Eveler, Cobb County’s director of elections, told local media outlets.

    Cobb election officials said that the memory card was located in Kennesaw when workers were preparing for an audit of the election, according to 11Alive. Further details weren’t provided about why the card was overlooked or where it was located.

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/uncounted-votes-on-overlooked-memory-card-flips-election-in-georgia_4875156.html

    I’ve mentioned one Texas election where I was a ballot counting observer. We had one person at each voting location and me at the courthouse. In a couple of cases the location person followed the transporting vehicle to the courthouse. Workers put the ballots in the machines and the whole thing took less than an hour. That was for a primary, a run-off and the general election.

    There were no memory cards, thumb drives, machines hooked up to the internet, counting at 3AM, pallets of ballots showing up in out of state black Mercedes. And we got it done lickty split.

    1. “There were no memory cards, thumb drives,”

      I remember the surveillance video of the not too slick dude taking the thumb drive out of the computer he was working on in the tabulation room, trying to look nonchalant as he slipped it in his pocket and walked out of the room back in the 2020 election.

  22. Is Washington’s Dangerous Ukraine Boondoggle Starting to Unravel?

    Ron Paul | Infowars.com
    November 21st 2022, 11:08 am

    Last week the world stood on the very edge of a nuclear war, as Ukraine’s US-funded president, Vladimir Zelensky, urged NATO military action over a missile that landed on Polish soil. “This is a Russian missile attack on collective security! This is a really significant escalation. Action is needed,” said Zelensky immediately after the missile landed.

    But there was a problem. The missile was fired from Ukraine – likely an accident in the fog of war. Was it actually a Russian missile, of course, that might mean World War III. But Zelensky didn’t seem to be bothered by the prospect of the world blown up, judging from his reckless rhetoric.

    Zelensky must have understood that Washington and Brussels knew it was not a Russian missile. Considering the vast intelligence capabilities of the US in that war zone, it is likely the US government knew in real time that the missiles were not Russian. For Zelensky to claim otherwise seemed almost unhinged. And for what seems like the first time, Washington noticed.

    As a result, there has been a minor – but hopefully growing – revolt among conservatives in Washington over this dangerous episode. Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor-Greene introduced legislation demanding an audit of the tens of billions of dollars shipped to Ukraine – with perhaps $50 billion more in the pipeline. The resolution currently has eleven co-sponsors.

    Rep. Matt Gaetz has publicly stated that he would not vote for one more dollar for Ukraine. Others, like US Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ), have gone even further. In a recent Tweet Rep. Gosar called US support for Ukraine a “corrupt money-laundering operation.” As the fallout from the recent collapse of the FTX crypto exchange points to possible political corruption, his claims may prove to be accurate.

    When Sen. Paul introduced an amendment to the massive aid package to Ukraine calling for someone to audit the funds, he was ridiculed and attacked. Some seven months later, his position appears far more accepted. And that’s a good thing.

    When the Ukraine war hysteria finally dies down – as the Covid hysteria died down before it – it will become obvious to vastly more Americans what an absolute fiasco this whole thing has been. Hopefully Republicans will accelerate that process when they take the House in January. It cannot come too soon!

    This article first appeared at RonPaulInstitute.org.

    https://www.infowars.com/

    1. In a recent Tweet Rep. Gosar called US support for Ukraine a “corrupt money-laundering operation.”

      At what point will the kleptocrats decide they have stolen enough money and then suddenly Russia will find almost no opposition and win?

    1. Lead
      Talking to Your Employees About Layoffs and Hiring FreezesFailing to address the elephant in the room can hurt your team — and your business.
      By Chris Ronzio, Founder and CEO,

      The word “layoff” can scare a lot of people, especially in tech. And when almost all your employees are freaking out about layoffs, it’s never good for productivity.

      I don’t blame them, though. It seems like every time you open up LinkedIn, you’re bombarded with headlines about layoffs and hiring freezes. But the key to keeping your team from layoff anxiety is communication and transparency. In other words, if there’s nothing to worry about, make sure to show your employees know they don’t have anything to worry about and that your company won’t be laying people off any time soon.

      Why do layoffs and hiring freezes happen?

      Layoffs don’t just happen out of the blue. It takes a while for a company to reach the point that they need to start cutting staff. It generally happens when the business starts spending more than it’s bringing in and they have to cut staff to stay alive.

      In the tech world, a lot of companies raise venture capital to grow, and a big part of that is hiring employees. But sometimes they get a little out over their skis, as one of our investors analogized. If you’re a non-skier like me, that basically means they get in over their heads, and the amount of revenue growth they were expecting isn’t keeping pace with the number of people they’ve hired.

      When expenses outpace revenue, that’s called burn rate. And when that burn rate gets too high, cutting employee expenses – basically, laying people off – becomes necessary.

      Hiring freezes, on the other hand, can be a good thing. Some people look at a company announcing hiring freezes as a red flag, but I’d say they’re more of a yellow flag. They show that a company is being proactive about out-of-control growth and conservative in how they’re spending their capital. So a hiring freeze isn’t so much a canary in the company coal mine, but rather a move intended to prevent the mine from collapsing. 

      Be proactive in explaining layoffs to your employees

      At Trainual, we’ve never had to lay anyone off, and I hope that continues as long as we’re around. And we have no plans for layoffs either. But because there seems to be so much anxiety going around over layoffs and hiring freezes, I decided to be proactive and call a meeting so I could explain where our company was and why nobody needed to be concerned.

      And, to be clear, this anxiety isn’t unfounded — over 45,000 tech workers have been laid off this year alone. No surprise that nearly 80% of Americans across all industries have some form of layoff anxiety. 
      …
      https://www.inc.com/chris-ronzio/talking-to-employees-layoffs-hiring-freezes.html

      1. Years ago I worked for a small high tech company that got out over their skis. At the Christmas Party the CEO gave a rosy speech about how there wouldn’t be any layoffs as rumored. January 2 was a bloodbath.

    2. DOW 30 -0.13%
      S&P 500 -0.39%
      NASDAQ 100 -1.06%

      Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, and Ken Griffin are sounding the alarm on a US recession. Here are 12 dire economic warnings from elite commentators.
      Theron Mohamed
      Nov 20, 2022, 3:30 AM

      – Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, and Charlie Munger have flagged the risk of a US recession.

      – Carl Icahn, Jamie Dimon, and Ken Griffin are also bracing for a painful economic downturn.

      – Here are 12 recession warnings from top executives, investors, and academics.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-economy-recession-warnings-musk-bezos-griffin-munger-icahn-dimon-2022-11

    1. The Financial Times
      Cryptocurrencies
      Two Estonians accused of $575mn crypto fraud
      US prosecutors say defendants capitalised on ‘allure of crypto’ to run ‘enormous Ponzi scheme’
      The Department of Justice said Sergei Potapenko and Ivan Turõgin had been arrested in Tallinn, Estonia
      Scott Chipolina in London 42 minutes ago

      Two Estonian citizens have been arrested and charged in connection with what US prosecutors described as a $575mn cryptocurrency fraud and money laundering scheme.

      Sergei Potapenko and Ivan Turõgin are accused of defrauding hundreds of thousands of victims, according to the US Department of Justice, which on Monday unsealed an indictment against them.

      The defendants allegedly induced victims to enter into rental contracts for fraudulent equipment with the men’s crypto mining service HashFlare. They also are accused of soliciting investments in a virtual currency bank called Polybius Bank, which, prosecutors said, was neither a bank nor paid dividends that were promised.
      …

    2. How did two thirds of Americans get deluded into believing that cryptocurrencies are something other than Ponzi assets?

      1. One-Third of Americans Believe Cryptocurrencies Are Ponzi Schemes, Survey Says
        Many people think cryptocurrencies are Ponzi schemes because they promise high returns on investment.
        Nov. 09, 2022

        According to a survey from BanklessTimes.com, a third of the U.S. population believes digital assets are Ponzi schemes.

        Ponzi schemes usually involve someone promising high returns on investment but using money from new investors to pay off old investors. Many people think cryptocurrencies are Ponzi schemes because they also promise high returns on investment.

        “A Ponzi scheme is only sustainable as long as enough new investors are coming in to keep the scheme going,” BanklessTimes CEO Jonathan Merry said. “When that stops, the whole thing collapses. Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme because it does not rely on new investors to keep it going. Instead, Bitcoin relies on its own technology and network effects to maintain its value.”
        …
        https://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/2022/11/09/one-third-of-americans-believe-cryptocurrencies-are-ponzi-schemes/73118/

    3. Yahoo
      The Year in Crypto So Far
      Yaёl Bizouati-Kennedy
      Mon, November 21, 2022 at 1:09 PM·8 min read

      This will go down in the books as a very bad year for the crypto industry and its entire ecosystem.

      Despite starting the year rather strongly, the crypto winter quickly seeped in — and never left. It was a year of collapses, losses, lawsuits and angry and reeling investors. It was a year that started with the Luna/Terra and Three Arrows collapses, which then took down Voyager and Celsius and left thousands of investors hit with huge losses. A year that saw Bitcoin down 75% from its Nov. 10, 2021, all-time-high. And now, of course, the FTX fiasco and Sam Bankman-Fried’s demise are engulfing the entire industry.

      All of this is affecting confidence in the crypto markets and might delay institutional adoption and hasten regulation.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-far-210907719.html

    4. Finance
      Former U.S. regulator compares FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried to Bernie Madoff and his Ponzi scheme
      By Willy Rock –
      November 20, 2022
      Former Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Chair Sheila Bair compares the downfall of crypto-currency exchange FTX and its former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried to Bernie Madoff’s infamous Ponzi scheme. “It was a lot like Bernie Madoff in that sense” she said.

      Sheila Bair, one of the top U.S. regulators during the 2008 financial crisis, explained in an interview with CNN on Monday that there are uncanny similarities between the rise and fall of FTX and its former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried and Bernie Madoff.

      Sheila Bair served as chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 2006 to 2011. She now serves on the board of blockchain infrastructure company Paxos.

      She explained that both Bankman-Fried and Madoff proved adept at seducing savvy investors and regulators to ignore red flags hidden in plain sight. FTX filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection last week and Bankman-Fried stepped down as CEO.
      …
      https://www.royalsblue.com/former-u-s-regulator-compares-ftx-and-sam-bankman-fried-to-bernie-madoff-and-his-ponzi-scheme/

    5. Tech
      Coinbase shares tumble as bitcoin slide continues, investors fear contagion from FTX collapse
      Published Mon, Nov 21 2022 1:20 PM EST
      Updated 6 Hours Ago
      Ashley Capoot

      Key Points

      – Coinbase has lost over a quarter of its value in the past four trading sessions as investors fear more fallout from FTX’s collapse.

      – Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said his company does not have “any material exposure to FTX,” but he has “sympathy for everyone involved.”

      – Mizuho analysts wrote in a note on Friday that daily volumes in the industry are trending 30% to 40% below the average for the year.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/21/coinbase-shares-drop-as-bitcoin-slides-ftx-related-concerns-mount.html

    6. MoneyWise
      ‘This is crypto extinction’: Peter Schiff predicted the 2008 financial crash — now he sees the total destruction of digital currencies very soon. Here are 3 assets he likes instead
      Jing Pan
      Sat, November 19, 2022 at 6:00 AM·4 min read

      With the massive pullback in cryptocurrency prices and the collapse of crypto exchange FTX, the term “crypto winter” is now making headlines.

      But Peter Schiff, CEO and chief global strategist at Euro Pacific Capital, doesn’t believe that’s an accurate term to describe the situation.

      “This is not a #crypto winter. That implies spring is coming. This is also not a crypto ice age, as even that came to an end after a couple of million years,” he writes in a tweet. “This is crypto extinction.”
      …
      https://www.yahoo.com/video/crypto-extinction-peter-schiff-predicted-140000434.html

    7. Concerns rise over crypto regulation as Congress members disclose holdings
      BY Akayla Gardner and Bloomberg
      April 26, 2022 at 7:15 AM PDT

      As efforts to regulate the rapidly-growing cryptocurrency market increase, some observers are raising concern about the rising number of U.S. lawmakers beginning to dabble in digital assets.

      Current members of Congress bought and sold an estimated $1.8 million worth of crypto-related investments since the beginning of 2021, according to an analysis conducted by data provider 2iQ Research. The amount is based on the midpoint of dollar ranges reported by lawmakers in public disclosures.

      The findings come amid a broader backlash against members of Congress being able to trade securities while in office. In the case of crypto, the debate is taking place as the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are still staking out their roles in regulating the asset class. The tug-of-war puts committees like Senate Banking and Agriculture, which oversee the SEC and CFTC, in a position to address crypto-regulation policy.

      The 2iQ Research analysis found 21 members of Congress or their immediate family traded cryptocurrencies, crypto-investment products and stocks in crypto-related businesses. Out of the group, seven members serve on committees in the Senate or House that hold key regulators accountable.

      “We need public confidence that Congress is making the right rules for the right reasons,” Richard Painter, former chief White House ethics lawyer and University of Minnesota law professor, said. “This is going to undermine public confidence in the crypto market.”

      Among the assets include shares of Coinbase Global Inc. and Block Inc., owned by Democrats and Republicans alike. Coinbase, the largest U.S. crypto exchange, spent $1.5 million on lobbying efforts last year, according to a Public Citizen analysis of federal disclosures, more than any other crypto-focused entity. Block, which offers retail Bitcoin trading and spent $220 million to hold Bitcoin on its balance sheet, employed 10 lobbyists who worked on crypto-focused issues last year, the report found.

      Senator Pat Toomey, top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, and Democrat Representative Marie Newman were among lawmakers who disclosed holdings of Grayscale Investments LLC funds, offering exposure to Bitcoin and Ethereum. Grayscale launched a campaign earlier this year to pressure the SEC to permit a U.S.-listed exchange-traded fund, or ETF, that directly holds Bitcoin. The firm aims to convert its Bitcoin Trust, held by Toomey of Pennsylvania and Newman of Illinois, into a spot ETF. Its parent company Digital Currency Group Inc. has also participated in lobbying efforts.
      …
      https://fortune.com/2022/04/26/congress-members-cryptocurrency-market-regulation-market/

      1. The Financial Times
        World’s largest crypto fund swept into FTX storm
        Shares in $10.5bn Grayscale Bitcoin Trust traded at 40% discount to the value of its holdings
        Steve Johnson November 17 2022

        The world’s largest cryptocurrency fund has become embroiled in the turmoil swirling around the troubled sector, in a further sign of waning enthusiasm for digital assets.

        The share price of the $10.5bn Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which owns 3.5 per cent of the world’s bitcoin, has plummeted to a 39 per cent discount to the value of its underlying assets as investors have embarked on an increasingly desperate scramble to exit.

        The blowout means investors in the trust have suffered an 83 per cent loss since bitcoin peaked in November 2021, outstripping the 74 per cent slide in the value of bitcoin itself.

        Confidence in digital assets has been sideswiped by the implosion of crypto exchange FTX, the fallout from which is rippling through the near-$1tn industry due to the complex and often opaque linkages between major players.

        Fears struck closer to home for Grayscale on Wednesday when crypto broker Genesis Trading, which originated more than $50bn of loans last year, suspended redemptions and originations of loans at its lending arm after suffering financial contagion from the failure of Three Arrows Capital, the Singapore crypto hedge fund that filed for bankruptcy in July.

        Grayscale and Genesis are both subsidiaries of Digital Currency Group, a Stamford, Connecticut-based venture capital company.
        …

    8. Cryptocurrency
      Bitcoin drops to lowest in more than a week, ether slides as FTX collapse ripples through crypto market
      Published Mon, Nov 21 2022 3:57 AM ESTUpdated Mon, Nov 21 2022 3:14 PM EST
      Arjun Kharpal

      Key Points

      – Bitcoin fell to a week-and-a-half low on Monday and other major cryptocurrencies fell sharply, as the impact from the dramatic collapse of FTX continues to ripple through the market.

      – The cryptocurrency market has come under pressure over the last two weeks as problems at major exchange FTX came to light.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/21/bitcoin-btc-ether-eth-fall-as-ftx-collapse-ripples-through-market.html

    10. Do the cryptobois realize that the Fed’s easy money regime that supported the rise if digital counterfeit money is over and done for good?

      1. William Suberg
        11 hours ago
        Bitcoin price levels to watch as traders bet on sub-$14K BTC

        Bitcoin bear market lows come in various shapes and sizes but BTC price is due to dip further, many analysts say.

        Bitcoin price levels to watch as traders bet on sub-$14K BTC
        Markets News

        Bitcoin held steady at the Nov. 21 Wall Street open following a weekly close at levels not seen since late 2020.

        Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hovering above $16,000 after dipping below the level overnight.

        Sentiment remained on a knife edge as rumors over crypto business conglomerate, Digital Currency Group (DCG) continued to swirl.

        Concerns focused on the $10.5 billion investment vehicle, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), with unsubstantiated talk of possible liquidity problems surfacing across social media.

        Coinbase, the GBTC custodian, reportedly confirmed its Bitcoin holdings — over 635,000 BTC — were safe and present on the day.

        GBTC was just one of multiple potential victims in the ongoing meltdown of exchange FTX and its related businesses, however, and crypto prices remained highly sensitive to the topic.

        Traders and analysts thus lined up to deliver short-term BTC price targets, these perhaps unsurprisingly being mostly to the downside.
        Anbessa: $14,600, $15,300, $17,580

        Popular Twitter commentator Anbessa laid out the case for BTC/USD retesting lower levels next, but also offered a reentry level should market strength return.

        Updating a Twitter discussion with an annotated chart, he highlighted $14,600 as a “most primed” area to increase BTC exposure.

        “Time has passed, and the plan hasn’t changed. The re-entry is a bit lower now (descending trendline support),” he summarized in accompanying comments.

        If Bitcoin were to halt its descent now, Anbessa said that a reentry point would be just below $17,600 — the site of June’s previous macro low. BTC/USD would need to flip it to support for the strategy to be valid.
        BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Anbessa/ Twitter
        The London Crypto: $12,000, $175,000

        Like several others, The London Crypto, partner of exchange ByBit, believes that the ultimate bear market low lies around $12,000 for Bitcoin.

        He arrived at the calculation using historical drawdowns from all-time highs.

        For every cycle low, there is a high, however, and optimistic The London Crypto was not shy about predicting the good times returning around Bitcoin’s next block subsidy halving.

        “BTC has made a 77% correction in this bear market, compared to 84% in 2013 and 83% in 2017,” he noted.

        “Studying our previous cycles high vs lows, we can estimate the low for this bear to be the $10k-$12k range, followed by a high of $175k in 2024-2025.”
        …
        https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-levels-to-watch-as-traders-bet-on-sub-14k-btc

    11. The Financial Times
      2 hours ago
      Bitcoin holds below $16,000 as Genesis worries deepen crypto gloom
      William Langley in Hong Kong

      Bitcoin held below $16,000 on Tuesday morning after it breached the threshold for the first time in two years amid further signs of stress at cryptocurrency services group Genesis Trading.

      Bitcoin fell 2.7 per cent over the past 24 hours to trade at $15,821.52, taking its losses over the past seven days to 4.9 per cent. Ether, the second largest coin by market capitalisation, fell 3.3 per cent to $1,102.25, according to cryptocurrency tracker CoinGecko.

      The descent of both coins levelled out in Asia trading on Tuesday morning. Bitcoin was last below the $16,000 threshold in November 2020.

      The moves followed a Bloomberg report that Genesis had warned potential investors that it might need to file for bankruptcy if it failed to raise new cash.

      That came after the group suspended withdrawals for its lending unit following “unprecedented market turmoil” sparked by the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX.

      Genesis’s latest attempts to raise at least $1bn in capital included talks with Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, which failed to produce any funding, Bloomberg reported.

      But Genesis on Monday evening said it was not about to file for bankruptcy. “Genesis continues to have constructive conversations with creditors,” the company said.
      …

    12. The Financial Times
      FTX Trading Ltd
      Hedge funds left with billions stranded on FTX
      Crypto asset managers face long wait for the return of their assets
      The sudden failure this month of FTX, valued at $32bn this year, shocked investors who backed it and traders who used it
      Laurence Fletcher and Joshua Oliver in London 2 hours ago

      Hedge funds have billions of dollars stuck on failed cryptocurrency exchange FTX and could face years of waiting to recover anything at all from a marketplace they once believed to be one of the industry’s most reliable bets.

      In a situation reminiscent of Lehman Brothers in 2008, which left billions of dollars of hedge funds’ assets trapped for years, investors who traded on the Bahamas-based exchange have found themselves among the thousands of creditors in a highly complex bankruptcy.

      The sudden failure this month of FTX, valued at $32bn this year, has shocked investors who backed it and traders who used it. Legal filings on Sunday revealed that FTX owes its 50 largest creditors, likely to include a wide variety of hedge funds, more traditional asset managers and other traders, more than $3bn.

      “I lost my investors’ money after they put faith in me to manage risk and I am truly sorry for that,” tweeted Travis Kling, founder of Ikigai Asset Management, which has a “large majority” of its hedge fund’s assets stuck on FTX. “I have publicly endorsed FTX many times,” he added. “I was wrong.”

      Crypto-focused hedge funds have direct exposure to FTX Group or to FTT, FTX’s own digital token which it promoted to incentivise more trading on its main exchange, of around $2bn, according to data group Crypto Fund Research.

      Earlier this month the Financial Times revealed that Galois Capital, whose founder Kevin Zhou is credited with spotting the collapse of cryptocurrency luna, had around half its capital stuck on FTX.

      Zhou admitted he was “deeply sorry” and that he had under-appreciated “the solvency risk with holding our funds at FTX”. He said it could take a few years to recover “some percentage of our assets”.

      Crypto Fund Research estimates that between 100 and 150 crypto hedge funds, or around 25 to 40 per cent of the total number of such specialist funds, have some direct exposure to FTX Group or to FTT.

      The average exposure is around 7 to 12 per cent of funds’ total assets under management, with some funds holding a majority of their assets on the exchange, according to the data group.
      …

      1. “Crypto asset managers face long wait for the return of their assets”

        At least they can rest assured that they will get the missing money back… can’t they!?

        1. Why FTX Is Lehman Brothers of Crypto
          The cryptocurrency exchange imploded within a few days, causing a financial earthquake whose consequences have yet to be determined.
          Luc Olinga
          Nov 20, 2022 5:17 PM EST

          It is a financial fiasco which has not yet revealed all its victims and, equally importantly, all its secrets.

          The overnight implosion of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange was a shock, unpredictable even among the Cassandras of the crypto industry. In February, the firm was valued at $32 billion. In the summer, FTX was the savior for cash-strapped cryptocurrency firms, victims of the collapse of sister cryptocurrencies Luna and UST, or TerraUSD.

          Analysts have already drawn comparisons to previous financial debacles. Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of FTX, has been dubbed the “Bernie Madoff of crypto”, after the legendary con man who perfected the Ponzi scheme.

          But the jury is still out on whether FTX is closer to the energy broker Enron or the investment bank Lehman Brothers. 

          ‘Crypto’s Lehman Brothers Moment’

          Analyzing the role and position of FTX, and most importantly its founder and former CEO, it appears that the firm is more of a Lehman Brothers than an Enron, in the cryptocurrency sector.

          The downfall of Bankman-Fried’s empire threatens the entire crypto industry. As with Lehman Brothers, whose collapse threatened to bring down the global financial system, the failure of FTX and its sister companies risks destabilizing the crypto universe.

          “FTX is crypto’s Lehman Brothers moment,” said Nick Saponaro, CEO of crypto firm Divi Project. “In fact it’s worse. In ’08, investors would have had some protection. FTX’s investors will not and if history teaches us anything, they will lose everything. Inevitably, global regulators will see this as their cue to step in and crack down hard on the industry, making it very difficult for DeFi providers to operate without the oversight of a third party. The polar opposite of why crypto was created.”
          …
          https://www.thestreet.com/investing/cryptocurrency/why-ftx-is-lehman-brothers-of-crypto

  28. Inflation plus crashing risk assets are painting a grim picture for retiring Baby Boomers’ financial outlook.

    1. Personal Finance ·retirement
      Retiring baby boomers are getting wiped out by inflation and a volatile stock market: ‘It’s extremely scary’
      BY Megan Leonhardt
      November 21, 2022 at 11:55 AM PST
      Retiring amid the current economic and financial uncertainty can feel like walking through a minefield of potential problems.
      Fizkes/Getty Images

      Anita Cowles planned to be on a river cruise in Europe next year, taking in the sights and sounds of vibrant cities, sprawling palaces, and medieval fortresses thousands of miles away from her Alabama hometown. 

      She and her husband, Russell, then planned to undertake a three-month roadtrip in their new RV. Those are just two of the many trips the couple were planning after Russell retired as a pilot from American Airlines in February when he turned 65. 

      But all of that has been put on hold in part because of high gas prices, higher consumer goods prices, and a market downturn that’s wiped out about a quarter of the couple’s retirement savings. Since February, the couple’s investments have lost about $500,000 in value, Anita, 63, tells Fortune.

      “That’s a big chunk of our retirement,” Anita says. “It’s extremely scary. We thought that we would be doing some traveling this year, but that’s come to an abrupt halt. You want your money to last.”
      …
      https://fortune.com/2022/11/21/retiring-baby-boomers-getting-wiped-out-by-inflation-stock-market-drops/

      1. “She and her husband, Russell, then planned to undertake a three-month roadtrip in their new RV.“

        That RV will likely bake in the sun for a year or two.

      2. All part of the plan. Empty the near empty pockets of the last third of boomer demographic right before they go in the ground.

        Debt is the surest path to poverty.

      3. There’s something wrong with this story. I’m just a low life cruiser compared to these high flyers, but… Half a million for a Class A and they won’t leave the driveway because gas is $4 instead of a buck three eighty? Go half as far and stay twice as long works for everyone else on a shoestring budget. Not going on a road trip because food is more expensive? It’s more expensive if you stay home too. Of course, they only have a million and a half left.

        I’d bet they’re total frauds, everything is mortgaged to the hilt and they even thought the motorhome was a can’t lose “investment”.

        Learn to go tent camping. You might need it.

    2. Lost Retirement Horizon: Why 401(k)s Are Not OK (and Not Just Because of the Lousy Economy)
      By John F. Wasik, RealClearInvestigations

      Fretting over your 401(k) lately? For all the current turbulence in these retirement plans – from their rocky recent market performance to asset managers’ politicization of their investments through the “environment, social and governance” agenda – the main problem lies in their flawed design decades ago, a range of retirement experts say.

      They say many retirees – particularly the less well-off – are losing out because the tax-advantaged accounts favor the well-compensated who are better able to save; also, because of the plans’ temptingly relaxed borrowing rules, typically high fees, complexity, and a presumption of investing competence on the part of ordinary workers.

      “This system works fine for the top third of income earners, but not well for the middle- and lower-income earners,” says Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.  

      Yet as traditional monthly pensions have largely disappeared for private sector workers, American retirement security more than ever hinges on 401(k)s. In an illustration of how they’re failing, Deloitte Global, the accounting and consulting firm, estimates the retirement savings shortfall for Americans at nearly $4 trillion, as relatively few employees are able or inclined to fully exploit these optional savings vehicles. 

      Worse yet, few plans offer much, if any, protection against market declines, as any 401(k) investor can attest this year. There are no retirement income guarantees in the 401(k) world. And in the face of such uncertainties, the guarantee of a modest monthly federal Social Security check, the other leg of retirement finance, is cold comfort for many indeed. 

      Investment experts explain how we arrived at this pass starting with an accident of history. 401(k)s were never intended as a mainstream retirement vehicle. What happened was that a benefits consultant named Ted Benna in the late 1970s discovered an obscure section of the U.S. tax code that allowed employers to offer an extra fringe “defined contribution” retirement savings benefit, mostly aimed at higher-income employees who could afford to put aside significant savings and avail themselves of employers’ matching contributions and expert investment advice.

      During the 1980s, only 8% of American workers had 401(k)s. But over the decades they have grown into a $7 trillion industry as many companies embraced Benna’s insight, concluding that they were cheaper and easier to manage than defined-benefit pension plans. Now some 43% of U.S. employees are offered 401(k) or similar plans, as pensions have virtually disappeared.  

      Federal legislation compounded the bias toward higher earners. Professor Michael Doran of the University of Virginia Law School faults Congress for expanding 401(k)s by offering higher contribution limits and more generous tax breaks for those who don’t really need them. His recent paper “The Great American Retirement Fraud” contends that despite “reforms costing the government tens of billions of dollars that began in 1995, retirement savings have remained flat for middle-income households and even decreased for lower-income households, after accounting for inflation.” 
      …
      https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2022/11/15/lost_retirement_horizon_why_401ks_are_not_ok_and_not_just_because_of_to_the_lousy_economy_864500.html

        1. Traditional retirement went from getting put out to pasture to die a dignified death because you’re too old to work ….. to financing rapidly depreciating assets like houses, RV’s and vacations.

          Arlington, VA Housing Prices Crater 22% YOY On Surging Mortgage Defaults And Soaring Inventory Across Northern Virginia

          https://www.movoto.com/va/22202/market-trends/

          1. It sure does seem like a lot of folks are banking on their houses to somehow fund their retirements. How does that work out when housing is CR8Ring?

      2. 401K fail sounds like a excuse for government to remake ( confiscate ) them and promise a better plan . Someones has got to buy all those treasuries

  29. How will investors remember 2021? The Year of the Everything Crash?

    I’m trying to think of a single asset class that hasn’t declined in inflation -adjusted terms. Can anyone name one?

        1. Turkey prices have jumped 24%

          Turkey breasts are in short supply this year. My local Sprouts was out; an employee noted that shipments have been unexpectedly cut. A Ramona butcher was also out. Luckily, they referred me to a small Ramona store that had a handful of fresh Diestel turkey breasts. That store owner said his shipments have been unexpectedly cut as well. Avian flu?!?!

  31. “Did The Market Really Drop, Or Did The Market Just Quit Having Over-List Price Offers?“

    A distinction without a difference.

  33. ‘A $400,000 house that really sold for $475,000 last year may be selling for $385,000 today’

    That’s the spirit!

  36. Ok, so I just saw DIED SUDDENLY, a very well done convincing documentary, that confirms every worst suspicion you could have about the fake vaccines.
    No other explanation other than deliberate harm on a massive unprecedented scale to humanity.
    They went and did it, after planning to do it for decades.
    They also plan on famine, freezing, ,inflation into poverty, and every conceivable destruction of current systems, for their One World Order /Great Reset takeover.
    Don’t comply with this enemy that corrupted and infiltrated Global Governments and UN, to carry out a plot so sinister and fraudulent, all pre planned , by psychopaths.

  38. I am now 63 years old and I have been watching the same hurricanes, tornadoes, forest fires, floods, heat waves and winter storms on TV since the 60s (although they were in black and white back then) same natural disasters they now blame on Climate Change (although they are now in HD on a flat screen) I have never seen so many GD people glaze over and drop like a tranquilized animal on screen as I have in the last year or so.

    Death jab anyone?

    New World Odor™
    @hugh_mankind

    I hope she’s ok. Another climate change victim collapses on camera.

    10:14 AM · Nov 20, 2022

    https://twitter.com/hugh_mankind/status/1594348340296105984?s=20&t=eG_pXNjcVErY32v156Xdrw

    1. New military recruits drop like that in the summer on the parade field when learning how to march due to locking their knees for too long while standing still. The trick to avoid dropping like that is to keep flexing your knees forward slightly and back, which keeps the blood flowing.

      1. “The trick to avoid dropping like that is to keep flexing your knees forward slightly and back, which keeps the blood flowing.”

        I knew that back in the 70s but still rarely if ever saw people glaze and drop like I have in the last year or so..

  40. I’ll bite.

    FMP Amen.

    Exclusive — Pence: Will ‘Give Prayerful Consideration’ to Possible 2024 Presidential Campaign

    MATTHEW BOYLE
    21 Nov 2022
    Washington, DC

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