skip to Main Content

It’s Worth Less Than What I Paid For It, Stuff You Guys I’m Doing A Runner

A report from NBC San Diego in California. “Gone are the days of 30 bids raising a home’s prices overnight. ‘That market is done. It’s completely dead,’ declared Miguel Contreras a real estate consultant. ‘If you’re a seller, you have to get that out of your mind.’ Contreras watched the median home prices drop more than $30,000 since June and once again sees homes sitting on the market for weeks. ‘If your goal is to sell, you have to be flexible with your pricing terms,’ he warned. ‘Do that math and understand that if you’re greedy, you’re going to lose out.'”

The Dallas Business Journal in Texas. “Median home prices are down $152,000 in Frisco, $115,000 in Plano, and $110,000 in Irving from their springtime highs, according to a city-by-city analysis. Median prices for single-family houses are down $90,000 in McKinney, $72,000 in Dallas, $67,500 in Richardson, $40,000 in Fort Worth, $37,000 in Denton, and $26,000 in Arlington from their peaks earlier this year, according to AgentStory. In Dallas, the median home price stood at $399,900 in October, down from a high of $471,551 in April. In Fort Worth, the October median was $331,369, after maxing out at $371,000 in April.”

From Hawaii Real Estate Dreams. “Kona overall sales are down 33% year-to-date. In checking houses, they are down also 33%. The average price is exactly the same as October 2021 for all ranges, $1.8 million. The mean or middle was slightly higher by $100,000 this year at $1.07 million. If we cap it at a million, sales are down 43% and prices are almost the same as last year. So to recap, houses sales are down and prices are falling back to 2021. Condo sales are down and prices are still up, land sales are falling fast and most prices are the same as 2021… and this is only five months after they started raising interest rates, the catalyst for these changes… wow, that was fast!”

The Review Journal. “Las Vegas’ homebuilding market kept its foot on the brake last month. Builders logged 350 net sales — newly signed purchase contracts minus cancellations — in Southern Nevada in October, down 59 percent from the same month last year, according to Las Vegas-based Home Builders Research. Builders pulled 545 new-home permits last month, down 55 percent from October 2021, indicating a sharp drop in construction plans, and their land buying was ‘basically non-existent’ in October, wrote Andrew Smith, the research firm’s president.”

“He said builders were ‘trying to keep up with sales’ over the past two years and started homes before they signed sales contracts with buyers, figuring the properties would sell quickly. But sales have now ‘dropped pretty significantly,’ so as a result, many homes that got underway when activity was higher are now being finished without a buyer, Smith said. Last month, builders’ sales cancellation rate in Southern Nevada was 36 percent, the highest since December 2008, Smith reported.”

From Market Place. “In case there was any lingering doubt, the new data shows the housing market has definitely turned, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. ‘It feels somewhat clifflike at the moment,’ he said. ‘You know, I think what this reflects is whiplash. I mean, what goes up comes down.’ And down is the direction the Federal Reserve wants to see prices go, per Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices — which produces the Case-Shiller index. ‘This is a feature, not a bug. This is what they want to see,’ Lazzara said. ‘If I were [Fed Chair] Jay Powell, I would like it.'”

From Bloomberg. “Starwood Capital-backed home lender Reverse Mortgage Funding LLC filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, the latest company to succumb amid a rapid run-up in mortgage rates. In addition to being a lender and servicer of more than 84,000 reverse mortgage borrowers, Reverse Mortgage Funding has been a frequent seller of securitized bonds backed by mortgages. That business came under strain recently as well: late last month, the company shelved a $290 million bond sale amid market volatility.”

Reverse Mortgage Daily. “Reverse Mortgage Funding, LLC , one of the nation’s largest reverse mortgage lenders, on Wednesday filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, just over a week after ‘pausing’ originations. While the company has not closed, nearly 500 employees were laid off this week, according to a source with direct knowledge of operations. According to the website for the Delaware district of the bankruptcy court, five total entities associated with RMF, including the company itself and its parent, Reverse Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc., have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. RMF reportedly was forced to pause its origination activities due to a collapse of the lender’s warehouse lines, according to multiple sources.”

Multi-Housing News. “Student housing investment sales reached $18.2 billion through three quarters this year. The higher interest rates have made it tougher for investors to put deals together that make financial sense unless sellers significantly reduce prices. By and large, sellers haven’t. Unlike last year, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been more active in the student housing space and are thereby capturing more market share as banks and debt funds rein in lending, said Will Baker, a senior managing director with Walker & Dunlop in Birmingham, Alabama. Borrowers have seen the amount of debt they can secure relative to value drop from 65 percent to 60 percent, or even 55 percent, Baker said. ‘With the 10-Year Treasury yield at 4 percent, it doesn’t feel that great locking in a 6 percent interest rate for 10 years,’ Baker said.”

From Farm Journal. “Zero, 16 and 52 illustrate the wild and emotional farmland market. In 2020, not a single farm sold for more than $20,000 per acre in Iowa. In 2021, 16 farms crossed that threshold. This year, as of October, more than 50 (at least one farm every month) has sold for more than $20,000 per acre. ‘Every time I think it’s a peak, we get a new record,’ says Jim Rothermich, vice president of Iowa Appraisal. ‘Those $20,000-per-acre sales used to only happen in northwest Iowa. Now they can happen anywhere.'”

“‘We’re looking at around 7% interest rates,’ Steve Bruere, president of Peoples Company says. ‘But, the cash returns on farmland, say in Iowa, are closer to 2.5%. If you’re borrowing money at 7% and getting 2.5% back, the math doesn’t work real well.’ With prices at $15,000 to more than $20,000 per acre, buyers are playing a high-stakes game, Bruere says. ‘If you’re wrong at these levels, you’re really wrong,’ he says. ‘An old boy told me, ‘The time to buy farmland is when somebody wants to sell it.’ But high prices bring more land to the market. I worry if people are making long-term decisions based on short-term information. It would be prudent to look past today’s environment.'”

The Globe and Mail. “More retirement-age Canadians are still paying off a mortgage, and financial advisers say rising interest rates will make it even more challenging for Canadians to pay off their home before they retire. The number of people older than 65 with an outstanding mortgage in their residence increased from 1.2 million to 1.5 million between 2016 and 2021 according to Statistics Canada, although the agency noted they don’t measure whether others residing in the home are contributing to mortgage payments. However, the number of seniors living alone with a mortgage also grew, from roughly 181,000 to 220,000 in the same time frame.”

“Jason Heath, managing director of Objective Financial Partners, a fee-only financial planning firm in Markham, Ont., said the trend of more retirement-age people carrying mortgages was first fuelled by years of rapidly increasing housing prices and is now being compounded by rapidly increasing interest rates.”

“‘There’s a whole cohort of people approaching their retirement or young people that have taken on big mortgages that, when I work with them to plan for retirement, it’s quite clear that they’ll never be debt-free on their current home,’ said Mr. Heath, who said that some people took on their first mortgages late in their lives, or moved into their dream home too late to be able to pay it off. ‘Some of those mortgages had 1.5 per cent or 2.5 per cent interest, and as variable rates rise or fixed rates come up for renewal in the next couple of years, it’ll definitely push up their amortization, so it’s going to be more of a phenomenon.'”

“In some cases, even homeowners who’ve already paid off their mortgage can find themselves caught off guard. Responding to a callout from The Globe and Mail’s Stress Test podcast, a 40-year-old Toronto woman said she found herself facing an outsized mortgage after having to buy out half of her home’s value following a divorce. The woman and her ex bought the house for $318,000 in 2008 and paid it off in 2020. When the couple split shortly after, the home had risen in value to $1.1-million, and she barely qualified for a variable rate mortgage to buy out the outstanding $550,000 from her partner.”

“The woman makes more than $100,000 a year, but still has to rely on financial help from a parent to pay her bills as interest rate hikes drove up her monthly payments from $1,400 to $2,100. She expects to carry the mortgage into retirement.”

Stuff New Zealand. “House prices slid just over 8% in the year to October and are down about 12% from their peak. Wellington-based investor Steve Goodey said he had changed his strategy in line with a softer housing market and rising interest rates. ‘I’ve stopped purchasing stuff to renovate and sell straight away. That strategy is a bit old and deflated. I’m buying more new build stuff at the moment, because I can.'”

“He said, in the last week, he had backed out of buying three new properties that he had signed up to. He triggered the sunset clauses in the agreements, which allow the developer or buyer to back out if the development has not progressed sufficiently, and claimed back his deposits. ‘We are past the point where we can expect new builds to go up in value between buying them and settling. Now it’s possible that in the middle of next year we could be buying better deals than we are buying now. That’s an important tipping point. That $110,000 I got back from the ones I bought last year that haven’t started yet – by the middle of next year I could use that to buy some really good bargain stuff that’s alread built as a new build. It probably won’t be cashflow positive or even neutral but it will be brand new.'”

“He said some developers who had already committed to developing sites could hit trouble next year. Sites that had been cleared and had the foundations ready were probably going to sell for about $100,000 less per property once developed than they had at the peak, he said. ‘Some of these guys still have another 100 sites that still have the original old house on it with the old lady living in it still. They’ve either settled or committed to purchase and they have to settle or lose their deposit. They can’t just hold those because they won’t cover themselves. They really have to develop them. Some of those developers are sweating a bit. The OCR went up, interest rates are now at 7%, test rates at 8.5% – if early next year the stress rate is 9.5% a lot of people who bought them last year are going to go to the bank and have them go ‘actually no we can’t lend you this money’ because they have to use the stress rate across the entire portfolio.'”

“‘Those people are going to go ‘I paid a $80,000 but it’s worth less than what I paid for it, even if I do settle I’ll lose money, stuff you guys I’m doing a runner’. At that point you might be able to buy a property that was worth $800,000 last year for $600,000 now if you’re cashed up and ready to go.'”

From The Hill. “FTX founder Samuel Bankman-Fried’s interview at a financial conference here Wednesday drew a crowd of protesters, some of whom had lost sizable portions of their life savings in the collapse of his crypto platform FTX earlier in November. ‘This guy robbed me,’ said Anthony Canelo, who stood outside the event hosted by the New York Times, where Bankman-Fried spoke via video link from the Bahamas.”

“Canelo held a sign that read ‘SBF and Gary G robbed us all,’ referring to Bankman-Fried as well as U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, who has been under pressure to clamp down on the loosely regulated cryptocurrency sector. ‘I lost over $10,000. I’m 36-years-old. Do you know how much money that is for someone like myself? And this guy gets to talk? Everyone knows that he took customer funds,’ Canelo added.”

“Bankman-Fried was interviewed during the event by New York Times reporter and CNBC host Andrew Ross Sorkin, who said he’d received numerous letters from people who’d experienced financial hardship from the collapse and were angry the FTX founder was being given a high-profile platform to explain himself. ‘One of the letters I got I want to read to you, Sam, because it’s from a gentleman who said he lost his life savings,’ Sorkin said. ‘It says, ‘Andrew, can you please ask [Samuel Bankman-Fried] why he decided to steal my life savings and the $10 billion more from customers to give to his hedge fund?'”

“Bankman-Fried said he was ‘deeply sorry about what happened’ but said he ‘didn’t ever try to commit fraud on anyone.’ Bankman-Fried addressed the issue of real estate that was bought for his parents during the conference. ‘I don’t know the details of the house for my parents, but I knew it was not intended to be their long-term property. It was intended to be the company’s property.’ he said. ‘I think they stayed there while working with the company some time over the last year.'”

This Post Has 121 Comments
  1. ‘There’s a whole cohort of people approaching their retirement or young people that have taken on big mortgages that, when I work with them to plan for retirement, it’s quite clear that they’ll never be debt-free on their current home’

    Now that’s some sound lending right there.

  2. ‘With the 10-Year Treasury yield at 4 percent, it doesn’t feel that great locking in a 6 percent interest rate for 10 years’

    ‘We’re looking at around 7% interest rates…But, the cash returns on farmland, say in Iowa, are closer to 2.5%. If you’re borrowing money at 7% and getting 2.5% back, the math doesn’t work real well’

    Here’s the punchline Steve: with inflation above 7%, everybody involved is taking an a$$pounding!

    1. the cash returns on farmland, say in Iowa, are closer to 2.5%

      Not a given. Depends on how much you paid. During the Bubble farm land prices were based on anticipated appreciation, like airboxes.

  3. ‘I’ve stopped purchasing stuff to renovate and sell straight away. That strategy is a bit old and deflated. I’m buying more new build stuff at the moment, because I can’

    ‘He said, in the last week, he had backed out of buying three new properties that he had signed up to’

    Actually another Steve, you aren’t buying, yer bailing.

  4. ‘Median home prices are down $152,000 in Frisco, $115,000 in Plano, and $110,000 in Irving from their springtime highs, according to a city-by-city analysis. Median prices for single-family houses are down $90,000 in McKinney, $72,000 in Dallas, $67,500 in Richardson, $40,000 in Fort Worth, $37,000 in Denton, and $26,000 in Arlington from their peaks earlier this year, according to AgentStory. In Dallas, the median home price stood at $399,900 in October, down from a high of $471,551 in April. In Fort Worth, the October median was $331,369, after maxing out at $371,000 in April’

    Aaron Layman warned about this a bit over a month ago. Some of these areas are recent cow pastures replaced with California priced crap shacks on tiny lots with a yuuuge HOA. Fooked-Winnahs!

    1. making it worse …
      Some subdivisions have 3000-5000 sq ft homes. Good luck cooling those monsters in the Texas summer.

      Have a co-worker who lives in Plano who had moved into their forever home a few years ago. Now both kids are in college, and even though he makes good money is finding the utility bills too high to cool for just 2 people. They might downsize to a luxury townhome …

  5. ‘houses sales are down and prices are falling back to 2021’

    Another sh$thole blows more than a year of cray cray like it was dust.

  6. “Median home prices are down $152,000 in Frisco, $115,000 in Plano, and $110,000 in Irving from their springtime highs, according to a city-by-city analysis.

    Please join me in a moment of silent remembrance for all that Yellen Bux equity that flew off to debauched currency heaven.

  7. “Canelo held a sign that read ‘SBF and Gary G robbed us all,’ referring to Bankman-Fried as well as U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, who has been under pressure to clamp down on the loosely regulated cryptocurrency sector.

    Anthony, were you & your fellow bagholders somehow unaware that SBF was the #2 donor to the Democrat-Bolsheviks? That should’ve been a huge red flag that Bankman-Fried was devoid of anything resembling morality or ethics. And Gary Gensler has been turning a blind eye to blatant marketplace fraud and manipulation since his tenure as CFTC chair. Sorry, FTX baggies, but you purely and simply got what you deserved.

  8. ‘I lost over $10,000. I’m 36-years-old. Do you know how much money that is for someone like myself?

    When crypto losses we must eat
    Let us stamp our little feet!

    1. When crypto losses we must eat
      Let us stamp our little feet!
      Housing losses day by day
      Sends them into Crater Rage!

        1. That be some mighty fine fetchins Donk.

          Renton, WA Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Seattle Area Emerges As Ground Zero For Housing Bust

          As one Seattle broker explained, “Housing prices are falling as fast or faster than rental rates all across the Seattle area. Better hope you didn’t pay too much.”

    2. “Gary G robbed us all,’ referring to … Chair Gary Gensler, who has been under pressure to clamp down on the loosely regulated cryptocurrency sector. ”

      Hey Tony, when you invested your hard-earned munnies, you knew it was unregulated. In fact, you reveled in being unregulated by those eeevil gubmints. And now you’re crying for poppa gov to save you. Have fun staying poor.

        1. Madoff died in jail. From Enron, Fastow spent 6 years in jail and Kenneth Lay was convicted but died before sentencing. Solyndra was brought down by several factors: China, shady company leaders, and a complicit DOE. Lehman got off scot free.

          1. Their product was a scientific fraud.

            Cheap solar panels, much like fusion reactors, have always been “just a few years away”

          2. “Their product was a scientific fraud.”

            All this 100 year old technology like windmills, solar energy and electric cars are frauds.

            Worse yet, the cost of ownership of an electric car is twice that of a regular car…. the only advantage is your family won’t have to pay for cremation when your electric car incinerates the occupants to dust as it self combusts and melts through the asphalt.

  9. Few things are as heartwarming as seeing “woke” companies like Apple getting the opportunity to put their Marxist “redistribution of the wealth” principles into practice and reap the blessings of the vibrant cultural enrichment they’ve been promoting for the rest of us.

    Workers stand down as Apple store raided in California

    Viewers have been left stunned by shocking footage showing an Apple store in California being raided by a group of looters.

    1. Gotta feel sorry for these poor thugs who can’t steal as much as their homies because they’re also busy holding their trousers up.

    2. Viewers have been left stunned

      Stunned? Not really, it’s what I expect to happen in Clownifornia

  10. Oh dear…what happens when all the first-time UK shack buyers who levered up on debt to get up on that housing ladder stop making mortgage payments on their underwater shacks?

    Average house price fell by 1.4 per cent in November by £4,494 to £263,788 – the biggest fall in two-and-half years as estate agents say prices are set to plunge even more

    1. Worse than the dropping prices are the quickly rising monthly payments in the UK.

      When I tell the relatives over there that you can get a 30 year fixed rate loan in the US, they are astonished.

  11. The sheeple in the WEF looting colonies of Australia, New Zealand, and Canada are probably getting a dim perception they’re in for some severe rectal trauma, but lack the intelligence to make the connection to their vote for globalist stooges.

    Warning signs of retail slowdown amid cost of living crisis

    There are fears of a looming slowdown in demand, with shoppers reporting they’re unhappy with businesses amid rising inflation.

      1. Voter fraud is rampant everywhere.You have to hand it to the globalists, they patiently implemented it throughout the west, even allowing the controlled opposition to occasionally win to keep up appearances, until the time was ripe to pull the lever everywhere and drop the pretenses.

        Mexico has a rather robust electoral system, with voter photo IDs and other measures and the party in control (MORENA) tried to “reform” it this year but the opposition thwarted them, with millions marching in protest. “La Reforma Electoral” would have returned Mexico to a one party state, which it was under the PRI for decades.

        Mexican presidential elections are coming up in 2024, and MORENA’s leading candidate is Claudia Sheinbaum, the mayor of Mexico City. Her problem is that she isn’t very popular outside the capital, because she is an elitist globalist from the capital and also because she’s a member of the tribe. So Morena is trying to prepare to stack the deck for her, but is already getting push back. The opposition, both far left and right, don’t want her.

  12. Gold is moving up nicely now that BlackRock Jay & his gang of counterfeiters & racketeers at the Fed have already gone wobbly after weeks of jawboning about mythical pending “tightening” to combat soaring inflation.

  13. “‘It feels somewhat clifflike at the moment,’ he said. ‘You know, I think what this reflects is whiplash. I mean, what goes up comes down.’”


    “And down is the direction the Federal Reserve wants to see prices go, per Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices — which produces the Case-Shiller index. ‘This is a feature, not a bug. This is what they want to see,’ Lazzara said. ‘If I were [Fed Chair] Jay Powell, I would like it.’”

    Don’t fight the Fed!

  14. The Financial Times
    FTX Trading Ltd
    ‘It just kinda went crazy’: FTX’s lavish spending highlights lack of controls
    Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto group showered employees with perks before collapsing into bankruptcy
    FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried
    Nikou Asgari and Joshua Oliver in London November 29 2022

    When crypto exchange FTX moved its headquarters to the Bahamas from Hong Kong last year, employees discovered that Amazon did not deliver to the island. They quickly found an alternative, striking a private deal with an air carrier to fly their orders from a Miami depot.

    FTX’s airmail programme, which was described in interviews with former employees, illustrates the lavish perks Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto exchange bestowed on its staff before it collapsed into bankruptcy this month.

    The freewheeling spending clashes with the public image portrayed by Bankman-Fried, the one-time billionaire who is known across the crypto industry as just “SBF”. Bankman-Fried said his motive in building FTX into a $32bn digital assets behemoth was to maximise the amount he could donate to charity over his lifetime.

    Yet behind the grand promises was an environment where employees’ every need was catered for, and where a circle of senior executives in their late twenties and early thirties splashed millions of dollars on everything from travel to sport sponsorship deals and luxury homes.

    A lack of internal controls that are typical of large financial companies meant FTX’s spending went largely unchecked, according to former employees and filings in the group’s Delaware bankruptcy case.

    “[It was] kids leading kids,” said one former employee. “The entire operation was idiotically inefficient, but equally mesmerising,” they added. “I had never witnessed so much money in my life. I don’t think anybody had, including SBF.”

    A $135mn deal to secure the naming rights to Miami’s national basketball stadium underscored the group’s spendthrift culture.

    Some staff questioned the Miami deal in company Slack messages, asking whether it would really bring in new clients and deliver value for money. “They were never overseeing . . . how much return we were actually getting. No one was really following up with ‘what next’ after you got the deal,” said one former employee involved in marketing, referring to senior management.

    Concerns about value for money from employees with marketing experience were brushed off by Bankman-Fried and the company’s top executives, this person said. Bankman-Fried or one of two other executives signed off hundreds of millions in spending on sponsorship deals.

    1. Kraken crypto exchange to slash more than 1,000 jobs as FTX turmoil spreads
      By Reuters
      November 30, 2022 12:57pm Updated
      Kraken, which earlier slowed hiring and pulled back marketing spending, said it was forced to cut jobs as it had exhausted other measures to bring expenses in line with current demand. REUTERS

      Cryptocurrency exchange Kraken said on Wednesday it would cut its global workforce by 30%, or about 1,100 employees, citing tough market conditions that have crippled demand for digital assets this year.

      Higher interest rates and worries of an economic downturn have roiled cryptocurrencies as investors fled risky assets, with FTX’s recent bankruptcy adding to the uncertainty.

      1. A bit slow to start but full of gems as he gets going. The League of Legends thing was something he did to a lot of people but it’s extra funny that he even did it to Sequoia and they still threw money at him. SBF has an uncanny ability to make everyone who worked with him look like an absolute dipsh*t.

    2. Yahoo
      ECB: Bitcoin & Co have no future; irrelevance is pre-programmed
      Wed, November 30, 2022 at 8:29 PM·2 min read
      By Marco Oehrl – Central banks and regulators have stepped up their efforts to keep Bitcoin and co. in order with the recent turmoil in the cryptocurrency market.

      The European Union is already pushing for a new authority (MiCA) to be created to oversee this market, while the ECB is in the process of developing a digital euro.

      A recent blog post published by the European Central Bank shows that the institution is not at all open to Bitcoin and other digital currencies. Rather, the authors talk about how Bitcoin is rarely used for legal transactions. The technicalities also mean that this form of a digital currency is anything but suitable for payment transactions. Since there is no cash flow or dividends, the conclusion is that it is a decidedly poor investment.

      1. Wow, this sounds like a multiple bank run, just like 1930. Everyone simulataneously wants their crypto back, either keep on a cold wallet or to convert back to dollars. Except now they’re finding out “whoops, yeah, we — ALL of us — actually gambled your crypto back in March when prices were high and when prices fell in June all those funds disappeared.” Not to mention exchanges were lending the same rehypothecated crytpocrap to each other. I expect to see at least a couple dozen more cascading defaults.

        1. bank run, just like 1930

          Except that it is exactly not like a 1930s bank run. Your money isn’t in there, not even a tiny fraction of it. Your money went away when you handed it over and you were left with an entry on an etch-a-sketch. Everything is fine as long as everyone keeps pretending.

    3. “where a circle of senior executives in their late twenties and early thirties”

      Unless we’re talking about google or real tech company that has obviously and demonstrably created something of incredible value, those words should turn any potential investor away.

    1. Carvana, yet another useless gimmick company.

      Add to the list: Crypto, WeWork, ‘Luxury’ Student housing and many more.

      How about getting back to making real products with real workmanship?

      1. You don’t believe in car vending machines? Or the inference that all you have to do is drop some coins in a slot and a car wheels out the trap door?

        Marketing genius… Target: Empty Pockets and retards.

      2. “How about getting back to making real products with real workmanship?”

        I fear that ship has sailed. Unless we have years and years of severe economic hardship to undo this get rich quick, social media influencer mindset that is infecting virtually everyone under 30. But Biden and Powell have assured us that everything is just dandy.

    1. Are they even competent enough to flip burgers? Or does their business card say “Snowflake H. Warrior – No Marketable Skills”

    1. The Financial Times
      Blackstone Group LP
      Blackstone limits withdrawals at $125bn property fund as investors rush to exit
      Private equity group sells stakes in Las Vegas casinos
      Blackstone’s headquarters in Manhattan
      The private equity group met only 43% of redemption requests from investors in the Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust fund in November, according to a notice it sent to investors
      Antoine Gara and Sujeet Indap in New York 43 minutes ago

      Blackstone has limited investor withdrawals at its $125bn real estate investment fund after a surge in redemption requests from investors pulling cash from private assets.

      The private equity group met only 43 per cent of redemption requests from investors in the Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust fund in the month of November, according to a notice it sent to investors on Thursday.

      Shares in Blackstone fell as much as 8 per cent.

      The withdrawal limit underscores the risks high net worth investors have taken in putting money into Blackstone’s mammoth private real estate fund, which — after accounting for debt — owns $69bn in net assets, spanning logistics facilities, apartment buildings, casinos and medical office parks.

      Investors can redeem up to 5 per cent of their holdings in any given quarter, at which point Blackstone can limit withdrawal requests to prevent a fire sale of its illiquid real estate holdings.

      On Thursday, Blackstone announced the sale of its 49.9 per cent interest in the MGM Grand Las Vegas and Mandalay Bay Resort casinos in Las Vegas for a $1.27bn cash consideration. Including debt, the deal valued the properties at more than $5bn.

      In October, BREIT received $1.8bn in redemption requests, or about 2.7 per cent of its net asset value, and has already received redemption requests in November and December exceeding the quarterly limit.

      It allowed investors to withdraw $1.3bn in November, or just 43 per cent of the redemption requests it received. Blackstone would allow investors to redeem just 0.3 per cent of the fund’s net assets this month, it added in the notice.

      Private capital managers have increasingly turned to retail investors, arguing high net worth investors should have the same ability as pension and sovereign wealth funds to diversify away from public markets. Part of the pitch that money managers make is that, by giving up some liquidity rights, higher returns can be achieved without assuming greater risk.

    2. The Wall Street Journal
      Oct 4, 2022 at 2:30 pm ET
      U.K. Real-Estate Funds Restrict Withdrawals
      By Julie Steinberg

      U.K. real-estate funds are limiting withdrawals as investors including pensions move to take out their cash.

      – Schroders’ £2.8 billion UK Real Estate Fund told investors that it would defer most of the £65 million in redemptions due to be paid out on Monday to as far out as July 2023. Schroders said it made the decision to help shore up cash and that it expected to pay out the redemptions after it offloaded some assets.

      – Columbia Threadneedle’s £2.1 billion Threadneedle Pensions Pooled Property Fund this week allowed switched to allowing redemptions only every month, not every day. A spokesperson said the change would allow the fund to sell assets to meet redemption requests and that it aimed to re-establish daily dealing as soon as possible.

      – BlackRock this week deferred second-quarter redemptions that were due to be paid out on Sep. 30, according to a person familiar with the matter. A set date for hasn’t been chosen. Rather, the £3.5 billion BlackRock UK Property Fund will consider the redemptions quarter by quarter, the person said. The fund has a maximum of two years to defer redemptions.

      “Pension schemes are looking to re-up their liquidity to meet collateral calls and get money out of the funds,” said Charlie Finch, a partner at Lane Clark & Peacock LLP who advises pensions.

      It can be difficult for real-estate funds to redeem a flood of investors all at once, since property can take a long time to sell.

      React News earlier reported the funds’ redemption actions.

  15. Pete Rivera Rare Earth- Celebrate

    I just want to celebrate another day of craterin’
    I just want to celebrate another day of life

    You put your faith in a realtor
    But the realtor let you down
    So you turn red with rage
    And you stamp your feet, anyhow
    That’s why I’m telling you
    I just want to celebrate, yeah, yeah
    Another day of craterin’, yeah
    I just want to celebrate another day of life

    Cocoa Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY On Surging Mortgage Defaults And Appraisal Fraud

  16. At some point the Globalist Terrorists Cult plans to have China style lockdowns, imprisonment, total censorship, probably forced injections , etc.
    The Head of the WHO , Klaus Schwab, Head of CCP, Bill Gates, Dr Fauci , etc. all claiming that China is the ” Model” for response to Covid..
    Sorry but Biden wants to sign a Treaty that
    would give the corrupted WHO the power to inflict policy and response to any pandemic.
    So, if the WHO wants you locked downed China style, or taken to a camp because you won’t take a jab ,the WHO can enforce
    this on US Citizens.
    So, this is what that traitor Biden is
    sitting up the US Citizens to be subjected to. .

    That puppet Biden who got in by a rigged election..
    The Globalists have a little problems with their model ( China) rebelling over being treated liked caged animals, that they will black out.
    But, my point is don’t doubt that they aren’t over with the Pandemic Scam , and all the other methods they have planned to have a One World Order/ Great Reset.
    Its essential that people never allow another lockdown or forced injections.
    In spite of overwhelming evidence the fake vaccines are useless and harmful, they aren’t going to withdraw them, while they scheme on the next round of Panademics.
    They will push that some new Covid variant
    requires lockdowns, or maybe they will come up with a more scary virus attack like Ebola, or something similar.
    The medical tyranny is essential to their take over plans , and is a weapon of mass destruction of the globe. Climate Change is the other weaponized attack on humans.
    Just saying.

  17. Does anyone know if hides sold prices? I was looking a Boise for a good laugh and noticed the sold prices were all blank. I also look at Levittown, NY and Tallahassee, FL. Both those showed sold prices.

    Something special about Boise?

    Property History
    Property Price
    Date Event Price Price/Sq Ft Source
    11/03/2022 Price Changed $588,900 $366 IntermountainMLS
    10/24/2022 Listed $607,000 $377 IntermountainMLS
    06/21/2021 Sold – – IntermountainMLS
    04/20/2007 Sold – – IntermountainMLS
    03/24/2007 Listed $199,900 $179 IntermountainMLS
    04/05/2005 Sold – – Public Record
    12/27/2001 Sold – – Public Record

    1. The regional realtor associations that publish data do in fact conceal or otherwise distort monthly and yearly price and volume data. Back during bubble v.1 a couple of us studied multiple realtor association monthly data for two years and consistently found ‘errors’ and even presented it to them. Dead silence. Shortly after that they stopped posting monthly data.

  18. A reader sent these in:

    There hasn’t been a single substantive question about the unprecedented increase in the money supply at any FOMC press conference in the last few years. An abject failure of the mainstream financial media in ignoring one of the most import drivers of the inflationary spike.

    Every city in the Case-Shiller 20-city index saw a decline in home prices in August & September. The last time all 20 cities were down two months in a row was in Dec 2008/Jan 2009. San Francisco is showing the largest decline in home prices thus far, -10.5% from its peak in May.

    % Increase over the last 3 years…
    US Money Supply (M2): +40%
    US Home Prices (National Index): +41%

    The average price of a used Tesla is now over $11k lower than the peak in July.

    Yield curve inversion reaches new extremes: US 10y yields have fallen further below those on short-term bonds than at any time in decades

    First-time buyers made up just 26% of all homebuyers in the year ending June 2022, according to the National Association of Realtors. This is the lowest percentage in the survey’s 41-year history.

    Lance Lambert

    Investor activity 📉

    2016 Pmt: $1,700/mo
    2016 Household Income: $4471/mo
    2016 Front End DTI: 38%

    2022 Pmt: $4,990/mo
    2022 Household Income: $5,917/mo
    2022 Front End DTI: 84%

    Sellers need to put down their crack pipes and do some basic math.

    Airbnb, $ABNB, has launched a service allowing American renters to host apartments.

    Society is so broken in California that employees are basically trained to help assist tens of thousands of dollars of merchandise being stolen right in front of them (notice them holding customers back) as everyone else just stands around and watches. How did we get here?

    lol. Toronto homeowners are spending money they don’t have, and Dougie’s passing the bill to Ontario’s young adults & businesses. Imagine not owning a home in Toronto, but your taxes go towards subsidizing their higher prices? Jeez… 🤣

    Peter Schiff

    Investors Fleeing Housing Market as Bubble Deflates

    *Pending home sales fell -4.6% MoM in Oct – marking the fifth month in decline
    Sales are now down -40% YoY (unadjusted basis)
    Contract signings fell in 3-of-4 US regions; esp. in West Coast down -12%
    Big illiquidity pocket forming in housing via mismatch of S/D


    The mortgage market’s restructuring will inflict pain, but it may be the only path to a new normal, industry experts tell HousingWire.

    SBF: “I made a lot of mistakes, but I never tried to commit fraud”.
    In 2022 somebody can literally misappropriate $10bn of customer funds and weeks later publicly state “sorry bro I made a mistake” and that’s it. Disgusting.

    So much for peak inventory, just wait until the explosion happens in spring

    Ryan Lundquist

    The Zestimate was $170,000 lower than the list price, but within a day of the property listing for sale the Zestimate increased by $170,003 to match the list price (technically $3 higher). Seems legit.

    Why is this happening during a shortage?

    Powell finally said “housing bubble”. He basically said they’re popping the pandemic bubble but the long-term shortage in housing construction is a zoning issue.


    This is the fifth consecutive month of of month-over-month declines, and pending home sales have now fallen in 11 of the last 12 months.

    Lance Lambert

    If we see a “material” drop in home prices, Fed Gov. Waller doesn’t think it’d be a threat to the financial system 👇

    Lance Lambert

    Here’s Fed Chair Jerome Powell latest comment (11/30/2022) on the U.S. housing market.

    The median American household would need to spend 46.3% of their income to afford payments on a median-priced home in the US, the highest % on record with data going back to 2006.

    Lol Bloomberg is a clown ass news website 🤡

    You could get a fine tuning late in the year that reduces by 25 or 50. The big bad news is is ZIRP and QE are gone forever. The economy must be purged of price pressures and then guided to a an equilibrium that does not demand a continually negative cost of capital.

    He is trying to portray this ask a “risk management” issue. And the media is letting him. This was a customer theft issue. Not a risk management issue. 🔈 sound 😢


    Carvana is on pace to run out of cash by end of 2023. Car vending machines will go down as the ultimate bull-market phenomenon.

    From Powell today. As many as 2M “excess retirements” are keeping jobs tight and causing wage inflation. What caused this? Booming stock/housing markets in 2020/2021! By this logic, today’s rally on Powell’s speech worsens things. So, Jay, what are you going to do about it?

    Rick Palacios Jr.

    Ton of homes in backlog waiting to close still due to stretched build cycles. Construction costs have yet to decline and lion’s share of homes in backlog reflect still elevated build costs, but now having to adjust lower on implied average sales price, thus margin squeeze.

    Rick Palacios Jr.

    Home builders don’t typically throw incentives at buyers already in backlog, but it’s happening now. 70% of builders we spoke with in mid-November did exactly this to avoid cancellations. Implications for margins compressing faster than usual.

    We’re in this part of the fraud cycle where a bunch of people still think the fraud they are involved with, which is structurally identical to all the other frauds blowing up, is totally solid. I’m loving it.

    How is this SBF astroturfing convincing people? You cannot operate in the finance business without being bound by those rules. It’s as absurd as stabbing someone in a pub and then simply saying you’re a doctor and it was just an impromptu surgery you thought the person needed.

    1. ‘Home builders don’t typically throw incentives at buyers already in backlog, but it’s happening now. 70% of builders we spoke with in mid-November did exactly this to avoid cancellations’

      This is a process that took a half or most of a year to go through in the 2000’s. We just skipped right over it.

      1. Here’s another way of looking at this timeline:

        ‘Powell finally said “housing bubble”

        January 14, 2011 Updated 12 years ago
        Fed was hopeful on housing bubble in 2005: transcripts

        By Ann Saphir

        CHICAGO (Reuters) – Federal Reserve officials worried in 2005 about the risks a housing bubble could pose to the U.S. economy but ended the year hopeful a steady round of interest-rate increases would keep the problem in check, transcripts released on Friday showed.

        The documents suggest the Fed, in hindsight, may have been too complacent about an overheated housing market that helped spark the worst U.S. financial crisis and deepest recession since the 1930s.

        “I think whatever froth there is in the housing market is becoming contained at this stage, and it’s getting contained largely because mortgage rates have moved up and are beginning to have an impact,” then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said at the central bank’s December 13, 2005, policy-setting meeting.

        “If we can contain the presumptive housing bubble, then we have a really remarkable run out there,” he said.

        Greenspan had always held that spotting bubbles in advance was an impossible task, and in July 2005 he famously referred to “signs of froth in some local markets” but stopped short of declaring whether home price trends had overshot nationally.

        That year, the Fed was in the midst of a steady round of monetary tightening and it raised short-term interest-rate target by a quarter of a percentage at each policy meeting.

        By December, some policymakers — including Greenspan — had begun to think that the round of tightening was nearing its end, and the consensus was that the housing market was beginning to cool.

        “I offer one more piece of evidence that I think almost surely suggests that the end is near in this sector,” Fed Board economist David Stockton said as he briefed policymakers at their December meeting, referring to the housing sector. “While channel surfing the other night, to the annoyance of my otherwise very patient wife, I came across a new television series on the Discovery Channel entitled ‘Flip That House.’.”

        He went on to say that only time would tell if the TV show and other signs were just a “head fake or are the start of our long-awaited slowdown in this sector.”

        Greenspan had little difficulty convincing his fellow committee members that rates should be raised a bit further. The committee agreed, and overnight rates were set at 4.25 percent.

        As it turned out, the Fed continued to raise rates through the first half of 2006. Housing prices also continued to rise, and did not peak until mid-2006.

        Analysts have faulted Greenspan for keeping rates too low for too long in the early 2000s, fueling the housing bubble whose collapse helped plunge the nation into the Great Recession.

        In Greenspan’s view, the Fed was better off standing by to mop up after bubbles. Attacking a potential bubble with rate hikes could damage the broad economy, he argued.

        Current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who was on the Fed Board during the first half of 2005, had made the same point years earlier, suggesting in 2002 that trying to pop asset bubbles with monetary policy is akin to performing brain surgery with a sledgehammer.

        While Fed officials generally still agree rates are not the proper way to prevent damaging bubbles, a shift in thinking has taken place since the financial crisis struck.

        There is now broad agreement that the Greenspan-era regulatory regime was too lax and that more forceful oversight could head off destabilizing increases in asset prices.

        Legislation enacted last year that rewrote rules for Wall Street envisioned exactly that, giving the Fed new regulatory powers and creating a new council to oversee financial stability.

        Interestingly, Greenspan foreshadowed a similar approach in comments at the November 2005 meeting of the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

        “Are we dealing solely with the prices of goods and services, or do asset prices enter into the evaluation?” he asked. “If we decide, as I have a suspicion that future FOMCs will eventually come to decide, that asset prices are a relevant consideration — not necessarily to capture bubbles or what have you, but to try to mold a level of financial stability that cannot be achieved without advertence to asset prices — I suspect that that particular process will be coming on stream.”

    1. BTW I can put this ‘was it a ponzi?’ stuff to rest real quick. Did he take money from late investors and give it to earlier investors as returns. I believe he did.

    1. “Treasuries rallying hard.”

      Treasury yields are highly correlated with mortgage rates. Used home sellers will try to spin falling mortgage rates as a buy signal. But I highly recommend patience at this point, as a recession next year could really knock the legs out from under housing demand, opening up better opportunities for those who are willing and able to wait out this period of market shift.

      1. as a recession next year

        At what point will you acknowledge that we’re already in a recession? Midterm elections were last month. It’s okay to say the “R” word now.

    1. Yahoo
      Investors Pull $8 Billion From Major Stock ETFs
      Vildana Hajric
      Thu, December 1, 2022 at 7:19 AM·2 min read

      (Bloomberg) — Exchange-traded fund investors took Wednesday’s stock-market surge as an opportunity to offload $8 billion of holdings in two of the biggest equity funds.

      Investors pulled $5.8 billion from the $380 billion SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker SPY), marking the largest withdrawal since September. Meanwhile, the $162 billion Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) saw an outflow of $2.1 billion, the biggest since July.

      The withdrawals came just as the benchmarks the funds follow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, rallied to 11-week highs on optimism that the Federal Reserve will pivot on interest rates. Sellers took advantage of the market’s recent show of strength as a string of jumbo rate hikes had been tamping down the stock market this year.

      “Investors took advantage of the sharp rally in US equities and took short-term profits on large-cap strategies,” said Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at ETF data provider and research consultant VettaFi. “While 2022 has been a tough year, markets have bounced back in the fourth quarter on expectations the Fed would pivot. Investors often sell when there is greater confirmation of the market consensus.”

      Combined outflows from the two mega funds total more than $11 billion so far this week, the most since February of 2020.

    1. The market has been doing the opposite of what billionaire greedheads have been warning about. “OH MY GOD, STOP RAISING RATES OR THE END IS NIGH!” Meanwhile, the DOW Has rocketed straight up 5,000.

  19. Markets
    Mark Mobius predicts bitcoin could crash 40% to $10,000 next year
    Published Thu, Dec 1 20229:09 AM EST
    Updated An Hour Ago
    Arjun Kharpal

    Key Points
    -;Bitcoin could crash to $10,000, a more than 40% plunge from current prices, veteran investor Mark Mobius told CNBC on Thursday.
    – While Mobius expects bitcoin to hover around its current $17,000 level, the move to $10,000 could happen in 2023, he said.
    – If Mobius’s $10,000 call materializes, it will add to a miserable few months for the cryptocurrency market which has seen more than $1.3 trillion wiped off of its value this year.

  20. My Old School · Steely Dan

    Here’s a summary that I’ve put together from various sources including those here…

    Fagan’s high school girlfriend, Dorothy White, gives Fagan (ahem, half of “69”) or “35 sweet goodbyes” before she sends him off on a train called the “Wolverine” to Annandale-on-the-Hudson, NY where Fagan would attend Bard College, sometimes referred to as “The William & Mary of the North”. Bard’s dean of students, (the girl who “could be so cruel”) worked with the district attorney, G Gordon Liddy (Daddy G) and the local police to snitch and to drug-bust Fagan’s dorm and arrest about 50 kids. The bust happens on a weekend that Dorothy is visiting and so Dorothy also gets arrested, as does Fagan who is “smoking with the boys upstairs” at 5AM.

    Bard bails out the students, but not Dorothy since she’s not a student, so her daddy has to bail her of jail (full of “working girls”). Fagan offers to take his increasingly bohemian girlfriend, Dorothy, to Guadalajara to avoid prosecution but she doesn’t want to go.

    Fagan was angry at Bard for its complicity in the bust and so he didn’t attend graduation (when the whistle blows) and Fagan swears that he’d never going back to his old schoool. He also thinks that Bard doesn’t deserve to be called “The William & Mary of the North”. (So “William & Mary won’t do”.) Oleanders can’t grow in New York’s climate and apparently refer to cannabis (perhaps growing under UV lights).

    Fagan did go back to Bard 16 years later, in 1985, to accept an honory doctorate.

    RazzMcTazzon December 05, 2010

    1. Just to be clear, jeff the Denier did NOT put together that summary but merely copied it from the songmeanings site.

    1. Yahoo
      Business Insider
      A housing market correction will take a long time and prices need to fall as much as 20% in the next few years to return to their historical trend
      Jennifer Sor
      Thu, December 1, 2022 at 7:38 AM·2 min read
      Robert Galbraith/ Reuters

      – The housing market correction will take time, according to DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas.

      – Colas pointed to the length of previous housing cycles, where home prices strayed from long-term trends for years.

      – He predicted home prices would need to drop by 15%-20% for the market to return to its long-term growth trend.

      A housing market correction will take a long time, and prices need to fall as much as 20% over the next few years to return to their historical trend line, according to DataTrek.

  21. Poor cryptobois can’t catch a break. Even the Treasury Secretary felt compelled to throw crypto under the bus on the Late Show.

      1. The Financial Times
        Crypto exchange AAX’s withdrawals halt sparks desperate search for funds
        Implosion of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX has sent shockwaves through industry
        AAX website showing a system update notification
        Hong Kong is a crypto hub, housing offices of several groups, including Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX exchange and his crypto trading company Alameda
        Primrose Riordan and Chan Ho-him in Hong Kong 4 hours ago

        Cryptocurrency investors in AAX are searching for senior executives of the exchange after its decision last month to halt withdrawals triggered a backlash among users.

        The Hong Kong-headquartered crypto exchange, which once boasted 2mn users, announced with great fanfare in 2019 that it was the first digital asset exchange to use the London Stock Exchange’s trading technology.

        But AAX, which stands for Atom Asset Exchange, halted customer withdrawals on November 13 for what it called temporary “scheduled maintenance” to “address serious vulnerabilities”. Employees at the exchange alleged the outage was caused by liquidity problems.

        The search, conducted by thousands of users through multiple Telegram messaging groups, underscores the increasing desperation of investors in the unregulated industry. According to AAX users, the exchange has since failed to process customer withdrawals, and staff told the Financial Times they had been disconnected from the company’s email systems.

        The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the city’s financial regulator, said the exchange did not fall under its purview, while the Securities and Futures Commission said it did not comment on individual cases. AAX is not one of the SFC’s few licensed virtual asset trading platforms.

        Hong Kong is a crypto hub, housing offices of several groups, including Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX exchange and his crypto trading company Alameda. Just before FTX’s collapse, Hong Kong had signalled plans to legalise retail trading of crypto assets.

        AAX vice-president Ben Caselin said on Twitter he resigned on November 28, citing a loss of trust in management. Caselin, one of the AAX executives users are searching for to recover their funds, told the FT he was unable to help.

        He characterised his previous role as a “spokesperson” who was uninvolved in the company’s financials. Caselin added he “felt very unsafe” in Hong Kong but declined to confirm his location.

        After withdrawals were paused, AAX users set up Telegram groups to exchange information and posted leaked pictures of senior executives’ personal identity documents to try and establish their whereabouts.

      2. Take The Money And Run – The Steve Miller Band (Lyrics + HQ)

        This heres a story about billy joe and bobbie sue
        Two young lovers with nothin better to do
        Than sit around the house, get high, and watch the tube
        And here is what happened when they decided to cut loose

        They headed down to, ooh, old el paso
        That’s where they ran into a great big hassle
        Billy joe shot a man while robbing his castle
        Bobbie sue took the money and run

        Go on take the money and run
        Go on take the money and run
        Go on take the money and run
        Go on take the money and run

    1. FTX Contagion Haunts Yet Another Crypto Trading Firm
      Author: Chayanika Deka
      Last Updated Dec 1, 2022 @ 15:28

      Aurus has not yet officially confirmed the issue but M11 Credit assured working on a joint statement. 

      Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried may have apologized dozen times for the failure of his firm, but there’s no stopping the contagion.

      Another casualty came in the name of a crypto trading platform – Aurus Global – which is currently facing a “short-term liquidity issue” due to FTX insolvency.

      Aurus Misses Principle Payment Amount of $3M

      The algorithmic trading and market-making firm reportedly missed a principal repayment on a 2,400 Wrapped Ether (wETH) decentralized finance loan worth around $3 million. This was revealed by ‘M11 Credit,’ which happens to be an institutional credit underwriter.

Comments are closed.