If A Person’s Equity Falls Into Negative Territory, Lenders Are Unlikely To Take Them On At All
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “‘In this particular market, the metro Detroit market we’re actually seeing home prices dropping. I’m seeing home prices drop by $10,000 a month,’ said broker Maynard Neal.”
“‘Now that we’re entering a bit of a recovery phase it’s nice in that it’s giving buyers a chance to breathe and to take time throughout the process,’ said Jen Stanbrough, a West Des Moines residential real estate broker and past president of the Realtors association. ‘(Quick-decision buying) led to a lot of stress-buying … and we were seeing a lot of buyer’s remorse or transactions falling out.'”
“‘It is a little heartbreaking where we thought we would be out of there by now, but now we’re not,’ said Georgie Babisak, who is attempting to sell her home. Soon after they listed their 4 bedroom Richardson Texas home the Fed began raising interest rates, which in turn is pricing some buyers out of the homes they would like. ‘It’s been challenging to be in a down market now, where you think you have a plan and the plans change,’ she said.”
“Missourians are buying fewer homes amid a spike in house prices, thanks largely to increasing interest rates from the Federal Reserve. ‘[We’re] slowly starting to transition from a sellers market that we’ve seen for about two years and now into a little bit of a buyers market,’ said Megan Walters of eXp Realty. Walters says the industry is experiencing growing pains as the market adjusts from the post-COVID housing shortage that made things advantageous for sellers. ‘But [sellers aren’t] desperate enough to actually always make those price adjustments and price the home for the given market climate so then they just kind of sit in stagnation.'”
“New regulations on the industry take affect May 1st, 2023 after years of battles and negotiations over the City of San Diego’s first effort at regulating short-term vacation rentals. Paul Becker, president of the San Diego-based Bluewater Vacation Rentals, thinks many people may simply have not heard about the new system. While many of Becker’s clients outside of Mission Beach will be relieved that they will not have to enter a lottery, he says concern remains about how the city enforces the new regulations. ‘They’ve built their retirement, they built their life around the short-term rentals and they’re very worried about losing that ability.'”
“Eric Wu, co-founder of Opendoor, is stepping down as CEO of the iBuyer, which is grappling with massive losses and a plummeting stock price and faces a slowing housing market. The San Francisco-based company reported a net loss of $928 million in the third quarter — more than 17 times what it lost in the second quarter. Much of that loss was attributed to a $573 million writedown in home values, the firm said in a letter to shareholders, describing the adjustment as a ‘conservative forward view.’ Its revenues for the quarter were $3.4 billion, down from $4.2 billion in the second quarter, and its stock has fallen nearly 90 percent this year. In November, it laid off about 550 employees, or nearly 20 percent of its workforce.”
“The share of mortgages with ultralong amortization periods has rapidly increased to about 30 per cent of home loans at some of Canada’s biggest banks, another sign borrowers are struggling with higher interest rates. The growing proportion of mortgages with long amortizations gives an indication of the number of borrowers who could face significant hikes to monthly payments when they renew their loans. National Bank of Canada chief executive Laurent Ferreira said he believes borrowers will face substantial increases in mortgage payments in the latter half of 2023 and 2024, when a chunk of fixed-rate mortgage holders are due to renew. He estimated that an average mortgage payment of $1,500 a month today will jump to $2,500 by 2024.”
“‘The payment shock that this will bring to consumers over the second half of ‘23 and ‘24 on mortgage payments is quite substantial. Everyone knows it,’ he said. ‘The central bank also knows it.'”
“According to Danos Group, the average house price in Cyprus is expected to fall for the first time in two years in 2023. Asked if now is a good time for someone with cash to buy a house, Eleni Averkiou, a Danos representative said the period is favourable for those in the market for a home and do not need a mortgage. ‘Now is a good time to buy because prices are dropping. It would be a good idea to wait until next year when prices are expected to hit their lowest ebb.'”
“Soaring interest rates and plunging house prices could slash up to $216,000 off the value of an Australian home by the end of next year, particularly for new homeowners, analysis has revealed. Sally Tindall, head of research at RateCity, said Australia’s property market looks set to be on a rollercoaster ride over the next couple of years with prices expected to fall further in 2023 as the RBA grapples with soaring inflation. ‘Anyone who bought at the peak should unsubscribe from property market notifications and focus on paying down their debt,’ she said.”
“‘Borrowers who can’t refinance their loan because of their equity position should still negotiate with their lender for a better rate. This will help them make their monthly repayments, and potentially extra so they can break out of mortgage prison faster,’ said Tindall. ‘If a person’s equity falls into negative territory, lenders are unlikely to take them on at all as a new customer which means they’re stuck with their current lender.'”
“The future isn’t looking good for renovation reality show The Block Australia, after its New Zealand counterpart pulled the plug on their 11th season. The announcement sparked debate amongst Kiwi fans, with many happy to farewell the show. This year, the winners of The Block NZ made a scarce profit of $4k, the next couple making a measly $100 and the remaining teams walked away empty-handed. ‘I’m glad for the sake of the contestants after how heartbreaking this year was to watch,’ one person commented. ‘The Block has maybe had its day…the Aussie season was a disaster too,’ another pointed out.”
“Buyer’s advocate Frank Valentic spoke with Daily Mail, saying these figures put the producers and teams ‘$7 million behind the eight-ball from day dot,’ adding, ‘The Block has paid a premium there, double what we would expect the properties to be worth. It could be financially the worst series yet.'”
“Mike Silagadze survived what he calls a sectorwide ‘atom bomb’ – the blow-up of cryptocurrency exchange FTX Trading Ltd. – scathed and chagrined, but not critically harmed. Gadze tried to pull out its assets. But it was too late, Mr. Silagadze said. Now, that money, in the form of fiat currency, is tied up in FTX’s bankruptcy proceedings. Although Mr. Silagadze hopes Gadze might get back 20 to 50 cents on the dollar, it likely will not happen for years, he said. He estimates his fund will sustain a 10- to 15-per-cent hit. ‘I went through all the stages of grief,’ Mr. Silagadze said in an interview. ‘Mostly, I feel awful for our investors. I feel I let people down because I was supposed to be protecting their money – and my own.'”
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‘They’ve built their retirement, they built their life around the short-term rentals and they’re very worried about losing that ability’
They can always sell, right Paul? Walmart is always hiring.
Building wealth by crowding young families out of affordable home ownership opportunities doesn’t seem like a kind or neighborly retirement strategy.
Also seems unwise to depend on new income for retirement. Aren’t they supposed to have retirement funds somewhere? Or at the very least a paid-off dwelling and SS?
Welcome to Costco, I love you.
I think that every time I walk through their doors.
Paul’s linguistic sophistication, representative of his colleagues, is akin to a second grader
‘Silagadze hopes Gadze might get back 20 to 50 cents on the dollar…‘I went through all the stages of grief’
Yer still bargaining Mike. Look on the bright side, as you wait for years, you’ll have plenty of court time!
“…Mike. Look on the bright side, as you wait for years,…”
Remember, Mike, life begins at 90!
Always look on the bright side of life!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJUhlRoBL8M&t=19s
‘(Quick-decision buying) led to a lot of stress-buying … and we were seeing a lot of buyer’s remorse or transactions falling out’
But they had to act fast to be winnahs! Jen.
‘Anyone who bought at the peak should unsubscribe from property market notifications and focus on paying down their debt’
You tell em Sally, get yer priorities straight winnahs!
‘Borrowers who can’t refinance their loan because of their equity position should still negotiate with their lender for a better rate. This will help them make their monthly repayments, and potentially extra so they can break out of mortgage prison faster,’ said Tindall. ‘If a person’s equity falls into negative territory, lenders are unlikely to take them on at all as a new customer which means they’re stuck with their current lender’
And their current lender probably won’t refinance either. Who is stuck here?
‘The share of mortgages with ultralong amortization periods has rapidly increased to about 30 per cent of home loans at some of Canada’s biggest banks, another sign borrowers are struggling with higher interest rates. The growing proportion of mortgages with long amortizations gives an indication of the number of borrowers who could face significant hikes to monthly payments when they renew their loans. National Bank of Canada chief executive Laurent Ferreira said he believes borrowers will face substantial increases in mortgage payments in the latter half of 2023 and 2024, when a chunk of fixed-rate mortgage holders are due to renew. He estimated that an average mortgage payment of $1,500 a month today will jump to $2,500 by 2024’
So they might have a 40 year loan now Laurent, paying $1,000 more K-dn pesos each month. That’s 480 easy payments!
“That’s 480 easy payments!”
Hurry now! If you act before midnight tonight you’ll receive an additional bonus of 20 years deferred depreciation…. That’s a $200,000 value and it’s yours free!
Raleigh, NC Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY As North Carolina Housing Demand Plummets To Record Low
https://www.movoto.com/nc/27616/market-trends/
As one national broker explained, “Our forecast projects price declines of 40% to 60% depending on location. Remember… location, location, location!”
480,000 in extra incremental interest over 40 years. Yikes.
This Ukrainian woman went viral on Tik Tok (again)…
https://www.bitchute.com/video/C2XJKxLzvi8E/
2:19. Lots of mother- F bombs and cursing.
Does nobody in Ukraine own a tripod?
The war is over:
https://nypost.com/2022/12/02/putin-is-open-to-talks-on-ukraine-kremlin-says/
Democrat Party and Zelensky do not want the war to be over, because that means the end of their money laundering operations.
Putin open to talks = Russia is getting bled dry.
Yer about to be disappointed.
X 380,000.
Why that number?
300.000 reservists called up plus another 80,000 that requested active duty. It’s been a few months. They should be entering the theater about now.
My opinion is that the Zelensky/Biden bros are simply leaving the Ukraines to die while they process the last Billions they can squeeze out of the laundromat.
“while they process the last Billions they can squeeze out of the laundromat”
Ukraine is going to drop a “dirty bomb” on itself and lame duck Congress will send them $200 billion overnight.
People who know these things know things.
“300.000 reservists called up plus another 80,000 that requested active duty.”
I really hate to see them get wiped out, but that’s what’s going to happen if they’re sent to the frozen killing fields of Ukraine. The U.S. along with Raytheon, et al., are sharpening their skills providing Europe with a military machine as a service.
The U.S. along with Raytheon, et al
They’re good at burning money. Winning wars? We’ll have to wait and see.
Whoa!
You go girl.
Yeah, I like her chutzpah!
Why should taxpaying renters be put on the hook to backstop million-dollar mortgages for the reckless banks that lent to FBs?
US home buyers in high-cost areas could soon get $1m mortgages with just a 3 percent deposit after caps for federally-backed loans raised – most Americans in less expensive areas eligible for up to $726,000
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11493915/US-home-buyers-soon-1m-mortgages-just-3-deposit.html
Globalist Quisling regimes have backdoor access to censor FB posts.
https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/1598204247388327936
It’s the only way to save democracy(TM)
If you’re on Fakebook, that’s what you deserve.
And we’re paying for this how?
California [Democrat-Bolshevik] Panel Estimates $569 billion in Reparations is Owed to Black Residents
https://nypost.com/2022/12/02/california-panel-estimates-569-billion-in-reparations-is-owed-to-black-residents/
A California task force studying the long-term effects of slavery and systemic racism on black residents in the state has estimated a whopping $569 billion in reparations is owed to the descendants of enslaved people, according to a report.
The nine-member panel concluded that black Californians whose ancestors were in the US in the 19th century are due $223,200 each due to housing discrimination practices utilized from 1933 to 1977, the New York Times reported.
The work of the Reparations Task Force, which was created by legislation Gov. Gavin Newsom signed in 2020 — and the potential payouts –represent the largest reparations effort in recent history.
And when Newsom runs for president he will have to apply it to the entire country cost at trillions will that help inflation ?
“…are due $223,200 each…”
They can apply it to that multiple-choice college degree.
I’m seeing home prices drop by $10,000 a month,’ said broker Maynard Neal.”
Gosh, that’s going to make “Always Be Closing” problematic, I fear.
That’s alot of cash in the trash.
It never existed to begin with. Merely the end result of appraisal fraud.
$10,000 per month? BFD. THEY WENT up by $100,000 over night every couple of weeks.
‘(Quick-decision buying) led to a lot of stress-buying … and we were seeing a lot of buyer’s remorse or transactions falling out.’”
Realtors telling idiots “Buy now or be priced out forever” surely played no part in said “quick decision buying.”
We had a realtor tell us that. I looked at him and said we were not going to do that.
So he moved on.
“‘It is a little heartbreaking where we thought we would be out of there by now, but now we’re not,’ said Georgie Babisak, who is attempting to sell her home.
Cry me a river, Greedhead Georgie. What’s heartbreaking is that “Zimbabwe Ben” Bernanke, Yellen the Felon, & BlackRock Jay have turned housing into a speculative asset bubble that has deprived millions of young couples the opportunity to buy their own home.
“…speculative asset bubble that has deprived millions of young couples the opportunity to buy their own home.”
This^^^^^^! 100%!
deprived millions of young couples
Only the ones who play by the “rules”.
I’m a young couple that stupidly saves money and doesn’t want extreme debt. I made a huge mistake it seems. Would’ve been smart once I made a decent salary to leverage up 50%. I’d be up a lot by now!
Hell, the slaves are making out better than me!
There’s no chain on my neck though, and I haven’t set myself up for a collapse.
‘It’s been challenging to be in a down market now, where you think you have a plan and the plans change,’ she said.”
Lemme guess, Greedhead Georgie: Your “plan” was to have some hapless first-time buyers fund your retirement.
‘But [sellers aren’t] desperate enough to actually always make those price adjustments and price the home for the given market climate so then they just kind of sit in stagnation.’”
I’ve got all the time in the world, greedheads. You don’t.
‘They’ve built their retirement, they built their life around the short-term rentals and they’re very worried about losing that ability.’”
Die, speculator scum.
And die again shhhh bag running commercial operations in residential neighborhoods decimating communities.
“Soaring interest rates and plunging house prices could slash up to $216,000 off the value of an Australian home by the end of next year, particularly for new homeowners, analysis has revealed.
I’m throwing away a lot less than that on rent, FBs.
‘I’m glad for the sake of the contestants after how heartbreaking this year was to watch,’ one person commented.
Heartbreaking? Au contraire. It’s comedy gold watching greedy stupid speculators get their comeuppance.
‘Mostly, I feel awful for our investors. I feel I let people down because I was supposed to be protecting their money – and my own.’”
The baggies who can color their money gone will Shirley be mollified by your crocodile tears, Mike.
A reader sent these in:
Blackstone’s $69 billion real estate fund announced today that it’s limiting redemptions. This is a scary sign for the real estate market. Let’s dive in 🧵
https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1598416556039495680
Goolsbee is just another inbred econ cultist, but it’s hard to imagine anyone could be worse than the current P.O.S. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans.
https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1598403540086497280
George Gammon
Real estate investor I know just posted this on social media. A 45k loss.
A couple weeks ago he posted another property that was a 75k loss. Signs of housing market cracks.
https://twitter.com/GeorgeGammon/status/1598292912110186498
Get out the popcorn. They miss the Fed buying MBS:
https://twitter.com/windgineering/status/1598337459129024512
“The “Airbnb Effect” is real: One 2017 study found that 1/5 of total rent increase NATIONWIDE between 2012-2016 was due to Airbnb. Another 2020 study found every 1% increase in the number of Airbnb listings leads to a 0.018% increase in rent prices.
https://twitter.com/SLCPaladin/status/1598359355039981568
How about all the dry powder on the sidelines??
https://twitter.com/ShlomoChopp/status/1598350226955403267
And just like that the big Covid supply chain bottlenecks have disappeared 👇Chart
https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1598348517067694081
Lance Lambert
6. This is “not 2008” (Cook, Nov. ’22)
7. A “material” drop in home prices is possible (Waller, Oct. ’22).
8. A “material” drop in home prices wouldn’t “trigger a wave of mortgage defaults and potentially destabilize the financial system” (Waller, Oct. ’22)
https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1598344960872521730
In Seattle & San Francisco prices are falling much faster since their peak in May
https://twitter.com/TaylorAMarr/status/1598345571781251073
Home prices have fallen by 3.3% thru September from when they peaked in June—the fastest pace of decline since 2009, according to the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index. Recent sale price data suggests a continued decline since September as well
https://twitter.com/TaylorAMarr/status/1597983159475646464
I think we have a Mexican standoff situation. Not a whole lot of action until someone flinches. Then when the comps start coming in lower sellers can no longer ignore reality. The scary X factor is all the institutional and Airbnb sellers….
https://twitter.com/danbellock/status/1598440272568135680
Danielle DiMartino Booth
I can’t see anything wrong with this magnitude of a mismatch… /s
https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1598420084934184960
Danielle DiMartino Booth
NINE HUNDRED THOUSAND UNITS COMING ON LINE IN NEXT 12 MONTHS – HALF CENTURY HIGH.
https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1598400772425019393
Danielle DiMartino Booth
An optimistically written headline if there ever was one @businesshttps://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1598378677078986752
“Mortgage Rates Extend Slide, Giving Homebuyers Some Relief”
Does this math trump job loss?
“Monthly payment on $300k loan would be $1,894 at current 30-year average ~$118
$OPEN is a bag holder at scale
This home in Austin was $170k in 2019 again owned and listed by $OPEN at $340k in 2022, and now reduced to $297k
Good luck bulls.
Even a primary school kid should get this dire situation, provided he thinks with clear mind
https://twitter.com/SriniKoganti/status/1597812663794667524
41% of US small business owners report that they could not pay their rent in full and on time in Nov ~ new record for 2022
The rent delinquency rate continues to rise at a sharp pace, up 11% vs 2mo ago
And this happened at a time when the ‘consumer’ was supposedly splurging
https://twitter.com/RadicalAdem/status/1598477211543429120
Commercial real estate investors starting to panic & demand redemptions, forcing massive player Blackstone to limit fund withdrawals (never a good sign)
Just one more piece of mounting evidence that 2023 will be a doozy for RE
https://twitter.com/menlobear/status/1598411785874202624
Bonds bulls are rushing to buy everything according to Bloomberg Data. Record issuance. Bookmark this chart.. they will cry later.
https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1598370041602355200
The last thing you see before your deposits disappear mysteriously
https://twitter.com/ParikPatelCFA/status/1598448801500614672
RIP Bernie Madoff he would’ve loved to speak at the NYT DealBook conference
https://twitter.com/ParikPatelCFA/status/1598445246806982658
Blackstone limits withdrawals at $125bn property fund as investors rush to exit due to concerns about the health of the real estate market. Burry has warned about this recently. See Below👇👇
https://twitter.com/burrytracker/status/1598413741108137984
For all the mysticism around the Fed, it operated for over a decade as a massive levered carry trade punter, the biggest of all times! Only their carry trade is blowing-up now with inflation. All the market « geniuses » were copycats of this same trade. Margin call time!
https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1598251437771087872
Yellen argued the administration managed the COVID-19 pandemic so well that consumers felt comfortable to “splurge” on goods. So you see … it’s YOUR fault. Not the Fed, not the politicians, not her … you messed up. 😲
https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1598456465077202946
YTD performance through October of every institutional publicly traded real estate mutual fund along with BREIT
https://twitter.com/EconomPic/status/1598411875191955456
Spoke w/a friend today who runs her own brokerage. She said lots of calls coming in already for listings for January/early Spring
Also watching the Blackstone redemption news spread like wildfire on Twitter today.
Anecdotal evidence confirming my hypothesis from last May
https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1598437349880467458
Planned layoffs increased 127% on a monthly basis in November and 417% from a year ago, according to CNBC
https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1598359708603138048
$1.3 trillion has been wiped from the crypto market so far this year.
Tech: hold my beer.
https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1598337226588491778
Lance Lambert
Every major housing market tracked by Case-Shiller has fallen from its 2022 peak home price:
San Francisco (-10.33%)
Seattle (-9.16%)
San Diego (-6.92%)
Los Angeles (-5.56%)
Denver (-4.49%)
Portland (-4.25%)
Phoenix(-3.86%)
Las Vegas (-3.64%)
Dallas (-3.44%)
https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1598413809034694657
Ron Butler
@ronmortgageguy
Real Estate Agents Who Are Criminals? Not A Joke….
The RE Regulator has no guidelines to deal with Convicted Criminals who are licensed
80% of the time there wasn’t even a reason filed as to how the hell they stayed licensed
Our Regulator ain’t perfect but Criminals are out
https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1598135123383562240
U.S.-based Employers Announced 76,835 Cuts in November — Challenger Gray
Job Cuts Soar 127% in Nov From Oct, Up 417% From Same Month Last Year — Challenger Gray
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1598293600772788226
Kira Mason
@kmasonrealtor
Powell finally uses the B word in reference to the housing market:
“So you really had a housing bubble, you had housing prices going up [at] very unsustainable levels and overheating and that kind of thing.”
https://twitter.com/kmasonrealtor/status/1598399533502717952
NINE HUNDRED THOUSAND UNITS COMING ON LINE IN NEXT 12 MONTHS – HALF CENTURY HIGH.
That’s some shortage Larry. They are still out there saying this.
‘Powell finally uses the B word in reference to the housing market:
“So you really had a housing bubble, you had housing prices going up [at] very unsustainable levels and overheating and that kind of thing.”
I’ll have more on this in a weekend topic. But if it’s a bubble, will it really be fixed by the souperbowl?
“So you really had a housing bubble, you had housing prices going up [at] very unsustainable levels and overheating and that kind of thing.”
And yet he continued with cheap money policy. This guy sounds worse than I imagined.
Nine hundred thousand units…
Hope you guys like condo noises, because there’s no way these million “homes” are 1100 sq ft starter ranches on 0.2 acre. I don’t think ANYone has built one of those since, uh, 1990?
Housing.
Round Rock, TX Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY As Austin Area Housing Market Rots On The Vine
https://www.movoto.com/tx/78664/market-trends/
“…fixed by the souperbowl?”
Souperbowl 2028?
Already they are bullsplaining this Blackstone mess – “it’s because inventors want to take advantage of its excellent performance this year”
If they don’t have the cash that means they didn’t sell and therefore have not locked in any excellent performance and may never do so. The steaming pies of ibuyers failed in flipping. The deep pockets have turned empty on the long side. What did they all forget? Real estate is illiquid, especially when you need to move it quickly in a downturn.
Real estate is illiquid, especially when you need to move it quickly in a downturn.
They may be forced to borrow to fund redemptions. Of course, interest rates are no longer low.
This upcoming fiasco is amazing. I know that folks joke about 5% CAP rates and the rest.
But what was the justification for the prices that Blackstone was paying – and did they count on low interest rates forever? I get the feeling that they were doing deals for the sake of doing deals.
So much for the brilliance of private equity investors.
Blackstone limits withdrawals at $125bn property fund as investors rush to exit due to concerns about the health of the real estate market. Burry has warned about this recently
Then when the comps start coming in lower sellers can no longer ignore reality.
Local realtor blowing off a comp because it was Opendoor unloading. It’s still a comp!
Buyers set the price, not realtors, not sellers. Buyers. And if a buyer comes along and says “see comp” and realtor blows it off, well buyer is going to walk. Buyer strike is going to get bigger before it all cascades at once.
Appraisers are ignoring ibuyer crater in Phoenix. Say it’s distressed. Creative interpretation! There’s nothing important on the line.
I like what Eric is trying to do with these comparisons (come on man, why exclude opendoor?) But IMO he needs to do the searches offline and edit. I’d bet he could cut run time in half or more. For instance I watched the first part of this video and bailed cuz it was taking too long so I missed what you caught.
I typically watch things at 1.5-2x.
Exclude Opendoor and go back another 30 days looking for a comp.
After Larry’s brilliant investment in FTX, it is hard to understand why anyone would trust any of his investment decisions. He has made it pretty clear that he is a moron. He is a perfect example of how a long period of bubble money can make people look really smart until the tide goes out. This latest news out of Blackrock really shouldn’t surprise anyone. The only surprise is that people still trust him with their money. It will be fun watching all of his ESG investments blow up next.
Don’t let the door hit ya Larry…
It’s called the scamdemic for a reason.
Fintechs Made “Massive Profits” on PPP Loans and Sometimes Engaged in Fraud, House Committee Report Finds
https://www.propublica.org/article/ppp-loans-paycheck-protection-fraud-profits-report
An investigation that began after reporting by ProPublica finds lax anti-fraud standards, executives who cashed in for themselves and contempt for small loan applications that would generate minimal fees. “Delete them,” one executive wrote.
Without fraud what would this country be?
Much better.
Great message to start your day.
https://youtu.be/X-rVWOqeAnk
Aurora, CO Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY As Mortgage Defaults And Inventory Surge Across Colorado
https://www.movoto.com/aurora-co/market-trends/
As a noted economist suggested, “Why buy a house when you can rent one for half the monthly cost. Buy it later after prices crater for 70% less.”
Earn up to $10,000 a month at home. Rent.
“we thought we would be out of there by now, but now we’re not,’ said Georgie Babisak, who is attempting to sell her home.”
Another new episode in the award winning series, Meet The Cratertons
Dracut, MA Housing Prices Crater 26% YOY As Boston Housing Market Tanks
https://www.movoto.com/dracut-ma/market-trends/
Wut?! But I thought EVs were the solution to the energy crisis.
Switzerland plans to BAN electric cars from the roads and order games consoles turned off during power shortages in a bid to reduce energy consumption
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11494991/Switzerland-BAN-electric-cars-roads-power-shortages.html
order games consoles turned off
I don’t have an X-Box or a Playstation. Just how many amps does one of those toys pull?
like none.
Big users are electric dryers, A/C units. heat pumps, hot tubs (which is just really a big electric water heater), electric water heaters and of course charging a battery car. (equal to about a hot tub).
Wouldn’t having people stay home watching TV and playing video games be the best way to save energy? Or is this just about making people as miserable as possible?
just like the covid lockdown nonsense. It’s about making you miserable and having nonsensical rules just to show who is in power (not you)
Orwell’s proverbial boot on a face … forever.
Oh dear….
https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/worrying-new-home-loan-statistic-as-lending-falls/news-story/65ca526652a4c53664518d2f05805d14
Mortgage rates are dropping quickly, which seems like it should be supportive for housing prices. Yet the last time rates underwent a comparable drop was a point when housing was massively CR8Ring.
Can anyone explain what is happening here and now?
The Wall Street Journal
Mortgage Rates Have Biggest Three-Week Drop Since 2008
By Ben Eisen
December 1, 2022
Mortgage rates fell for a third straight week, notching their biggest three-week decline in 14 years.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.49% this week, down from a peak of 7.08% on Nov. 10, according to a report released Thursday by Freddie Mac. The last time mortgage rates fell that much over a three-week stretch was during the peak of the financial crisis in late 2008.
The reversal is a reprieve for buyers who have been pushed out of the market due to rising rates. The drop “has drawn some prospective buyers back to the market,” said Bob Broeksmit, CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association, in a statement.
Still, rates are more than double where they were a year ago, adding to the monthly cost of owning a home and cooling the housing market sharply. Home prices were down for the third straight month in September.
The rate on the 30-year mortgage tends to loosely follow the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield. Rates have risen sharply this year as a result of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame inflation by lifting the cost of borrowing, but have reversed recently after data suggested inflation may have peaked and the economy may be slowing.
…
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-12-01-2022/card/mortgage-rates-have-biggest-three-week-drop-since-2008-5alx9SFRxZQHVD64rR2n
More likely is that everyone is selling their treasuries (which are “known” prices) to raise cash to cover their bitcoin losses and other fraud losses. We know Japan and china have been selling UST’s.
It’s all a headfake. Did this in summer too, remember jumped to 6.3 or so and then settled back to 5.5 for a month and then bam jumped again. Sucker more people into buying most likely.
Everyone buying Treasurys => yields
decrease, Treasury bond prices rise
Everyone selling Treasurys => yields
increase, Treasury bond prices fall
Even by the abysmal competency standards of the Brandon regime, how does Yellen the Felon still have a job?
First it was Putin, now it’s spendthrift Americans who caused inflation: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen claims ‘splurging’ after escaping COVID lockdown was behind the historic surge in prices
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11491183/Treasury-Secretary-Janet-Yellen-blames-Americans-wanting-splurge-COVID-lockdowns.html
She looks like the devil incarnate. Seeing her head on a pike would be a good start in righting the wrongs of the world.
Grabbers gonna grab:
“Democrats are embracing progressively tougher gun control talk, as pollsters predict the issue could persuade the critical demographic of independent women to vote for or against Republicans in 2024 .
But in the meantime, President Joe Biden will likely break the promise he made during the 2020 and 2022 midterm campaigns to ban assault-style weapons before Democrats relinquish their control of Congress.”
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/fairness-justice/biden-democrats-2024-assault-weapons
“I’m going to try,” Biden said in Nantucket. “I’m going to do it whenever I — I got to make that assessment as I get in and start counting the votes.”
Don’t take me alive – Steely Dan
https://youtu.be/1yiejXWPwUw
‘The American People Have Spoken! They Have Fired You!’ Boebert Roasts Pelosi On House Floor!!!
https://www.bitchute.com/video/AMQAySH9Q_c/
1:21.
Representing the “Real” Colorado (minus Aspen).
Urban Front Range = California v2.0
And good riddance! Too bad Boebert won’t be the speaker
Mass Formation Psychosis:
https://www.theatlantic.com/podcasts/archive/2022/12/covid-winter-will-be-different/672326/
Sorry, pearl clutchers, but I will be celebrating Christmas like it is 2019, this year and every year going forward.
“At the same time, there’s bad news as well. The state of boosting in America is not great. Roughly 11 percent of Americans who are eligible right now have gotten the latest boosters available.”
“Yeah, so this is an unfortunate thing. I think with every additional shot that Americans have been asked to get, there has been a pretty disappointing drop-off in interest, which, you know, to some extent is understandable. People are tired of it, especially when the recommendations keep changing. But this is a little scary to see.”
“So I have received four COVID shots now. Does my immune system—do I just get stronger and stronger every time I get more shots? How is this working?”
“So it actually helps to think about your immune system like a gas tank or a battery. The general thinking right now is that if you, I guess, take your COVID-fighting part of the immune system fresh out of the box, you might need three or so charges to bring you up to full charge. So your primary series of the mRNA vaccines and then maybe one booster after that, and then after that, you know, you sort of go along and as time goes on, the battery starts to drain a little bit. And so every once in a while, you’re going to have to plug your immune system into a socket, you know, get another vaccine.”
“And if you are traveling, not a bad time to at least to wear a mask so that, you know, you can be a little bit more confident that if you’re gathering with your family, you can take that mask off and feel a bit better about lowering your risk of infecting someone else or vice versa.”
“that’s a big part of the reason why I’m still masking when I go out into public, when I’m traveling, but I’m trying to introduce other things back into my life that just make things feel more normal. I want to be able to see the people that I love. I want to be able to interact with them. But things like masking and testing make me feel more confident about doing those things.”
I saw some freak walking around in Safeway yesterday with the K95 mask and a visor face shield.
Mass formation psychosis.
plug your immune system into a socket
It’s more like a series of Florida Hurricanes. Every hit breaks down the system cumulatively. That’s my impression.
People are tired of it
Actually, they wised up. More and more people know that “died of suddenly” is what is actually spiking and they have decided to take their chances with virus.
Sorry, pearl clutchers, but I will be celebrating Christmas like it is 2019, this year and every year going forward.
It’s already December and there has been no spike.
Would this be a good time for the government to step in and regulate Wall Street’s housing market gambling activities?
Democrats eye new legislation to rein in Wall Street landlords
Lawmakers say it’s needed even if it doesn’t fix the housing supply shortage.
By Rachel M.
Dec 2, 2022, 8:00am EST
A “For Rent” sign in front of a house.
Corporate ownership of single-family rental homes has grown 3 percent annually since 2010.
Getty Images/iStockphoto
Institutional housing investors — largely, the commercial banks, private equity, and other financial entitles that flip homes or rent them out — have been the subject of conflicting media messages.
On the one hand, we’re told investors are buying up more housing than ever. In 2021, they bought nearly one in seven homes sold in the 40 largest US metropolitan areas, the most in at least two decades, according to Redfin data analyzed by the Washington Post. In the first quarter of 2022, investors comprised between one-quarter and one-third of home sales in Atlanta, Jacksonville, Charlotte, Phoenix, and Miami. The US House Financial Services Committee reported in June that corporate ownership of single-family rental homes has grown 3 percent annually since 2010, “with the third quarter of 2021 posting the fastest year over year increase in 16 years.”
These trends are worrying, researchers and advocates stress, because there’s evidence that corporate landlords, under pressure to deliver big profits to their shareholders, are more likely to evict their tenants, raise rents more aggressively, and shirk responsibility for basic maintenance and repairs. There’s also evidence that some investors have been targeting homes in Black neighborhoods at disproportionate rates, accelerating gentrification and putting homeownership for some families further out of reach.
…
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/12/2/23485957/housing-banks-corporate-single-family-renters-landlord
“In the first quarter of 2022, investors comprised between one-quarter and one-third of home sales in Atlanta, Jacksonville, Charlotte, Phoenix, and Miami.”
How soon should we expect a race to the exits by investors who don’t own houses because they need a place to live in?
So the idea is that the government is going to fix the problem that the government created????????? This country is so toast.
Stop the financialization of housing and nobody is much interested
“…real estate values bubble up, then come down…”
Heard just now in a financial planner’s online presentation.
“The number of buyers coming through has dried up. Still, it’s real estate: Location, location, location…
Some times we have to drop the price by 10%, more than once, to find a qualified buyer.”
I love these deep insights!
The best thing about WFH is that we don’t see my husband a ton while he’s working, but now he’s on break feeding our daughter some peas.
People who despise WFH suck.
WFH saves me a ton on gas and wear and tear on the cars. My 2013 Kia only has 47K miles and it gets about 2000 miles a year. Runs great. If I was still driving to Dumver everyday I would be looking into replacing it by now, which would not be cheap.
But I was told WFH people never do their work. They work for like 2 hours and then spend the next 6 playing video games and going to the beach, right? That’s what I’ve been told…
In my line of work it’s pretty easy to measure how much work gets done.
It was in mine too and nobody cared what hour of the day things got done. A five AM start and the afternoon off worked quite well. I think that lack of success would have been no mercy.
Is crypto going to zero like Beanie Babies did, or is there some hard to identify fundamental value that will prevent its full collapse?
What Is Bitcoin’s Fundamental Value?
June 12, 2022
By John Hawkins
There are many claims that Bitcoin’s price will go much higher based on “fundamentals”. But examining these claims shows they are flawed. It seems Bitcoin is a speculative bubble.
The “market value” of cryptocurrencies has fallen from a peak of over $3 trillion in November 2021 to less than $2 trillion.1
But the media still breathlessly report claims that their prices will soon go “to the moon”, as the crypto fans put it. One of the latest such claims was from President Trump’s short-lived spokesperson Anthony Scaramucci, now heading Skybridge Capital. He claims Bitcoin will rise from its current $43,000 to over $100,000 in the next couple of years, undaunted by having made the same prediction last year for the end of 2021.
There are many who regard the fundamental value of Bitcoin as zero. Nouriel Roubini, one of the few economists to predict the GFC, said its fundamental value is negative, once account is taken of its environmental impact.2 Bitcoin has been described as a “bubble” by Nobel prize winners Richard Thaler, Paul Krugman, Robert Shiller, Joseph Stiglitz, James Heckman and Oliver Hart.3 The BIS general manager has called cryptocurrencies “a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster”.4
…
https://worldfinancialreview.com/what-is-bitcoins-fundamental-value/
Marcel Pechman
Nov 30, 2022
Total crypto market-cap hits $850B as Bitcoin and altcoins recover from FTX’s collapse
The total crypto market recovers some lost ground as the contagion risks associated with FTX’s collapse begin to look resolvable.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization gained 2% in the past seven days, reaching $850 billion. Even with the positive movement and the ascending channel that was initiated on Nov. 20, the overall sentiment remains bearish and year-to-date losses amount to 63.5%.
The Bitcoin price also gained a mere 2% on the week, but investors have little to celebrate as the current $16,800 level represents a 64% drop year-to-date.
Bankrupt exchange FTX remained at the centerpiece of the newsflow after the exchange hacker continued to move portions of the stolen $477 million in stolen assets as an attempt to launder the money. On Nov. 29, analysts alleged that a portion of the stolen funds was transferred to OKX.
The FTX saga has made politicians shout louder in their calls for regulation. On Nov. 28, the European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde called regulation and supervision of crypto an “absolute necessity.” The United States House Financial Services Committee Chair Maxine Waters announced that lawmakers would explore the collapse of FTX in a Dec. 13 inquiry.
…
https://cointelegraph.com/news/total-crypto-market-cap-hits-850m-as-bitcoin-and-altcoins-recover-from-ftx-s-collapse
Compliance
December 2, 2022
U.S. Regulator Urges Congress to Act Fast on Crypto Regulation
CFTC Chairman says digital asset marketplaces should be regulated with tactics such as needing to register with federal overseers.
By Alex Ortolani
The head of a U.S. trading commission on Thursday called on Congress to move quickly to regulate the digital asset market after the swift collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX.
In remarks made before the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, the chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said if Congress doesn’t regulate the digital asset sector it could harm not only cryptocurrency investors, but financial markets overall.
“The events of the past few weeks embody–in the most regrettable way—the perilous state of the digital asset market,” Behnam said according to a prepared statement. “I strongly believe that we need to move quickly on a thoughtful regulatory approach to establish guardrails in these fast-growing markets of evolving risk, or they will remain an unsafe venture for customers and could present a growing risk to the broader financial system.”
The U.S. Department of Labor cautioned retirement plan fiduciaries to be careful in providing digital assets in 401(k) plans earlier this year, and the FTX collapse created a further chilling of interest among some advisers. Proponents of cryptocurrency in retirement plans point to surveying that shows workers—particularly younger ones—are interested in having access to digital assets in retirement plans.
Millions of 401(k) retirement savers currently have access to cryptocurrency investments through providers such as Fidelity Investments and crypto-investing proponent ForUsAll. Both firms this year have said they have made cryptocurrency available to workplace plan participants, with Fidelity making it available within the core plan lineup, and ForUsAll through the self-directed brokerage window.
Regulator Behnam told Senate members that if digital commodities are not regulated, it will leave consumers who have invested in digital assets “unprotected.”
“Unlike other federal financial regulators, the CFTC lacks the necessary and direct authority to write rules and to oversee this marketplace,” Behnam said. “Instead, we may only reach it through more limited authority activated when fraud or manipulation has already occurred. While we can and do hold perpetrators accountable when we find fraud or manipulation, for the victims of the scheme, it is already too late.”
…
https://www.planadviser.com/u-s-regulator-urges-congress-act-fast-crypto-regulation/
High muck-a-mucks in financial regulation are glibly ignoring that cryptocurrency is a Ponzi asset class with no fundamental value.
It remains to be seen whether increased regulation will make cryptocurrency values go up or down. Wasn’t the complete absence of regulation a key selling point for cryptocurrencies?
Right now the story is that FTX and Alameda were different, because they were a Ponzi scheme that collapsed.
Never mind that cryptoverse is down by 2/3 in market cap from the 2021 peak, over a period when the number of cryptocurrencies and units of cryptocurrency grew without any limit. Got shrinkage?
News & Insights
Bitcoin
Bitcoin Magazine-Logo
The FTX Ponzi: Uncovering The Largest Fraud In Crypto History
December 02, 2022 — 03:00 am EST
Written by Dylan LeClair And Sam Rule for Bitcoin Magazine ->
Modern day alchemy, unsurprisingly, failed. A deep dive into FTX and the events leading to the collapse of the now notorious crypto exchange.
The below is an excerpt from the Bitcoin Magazine Pro report on the rise and fall of FTX. To read and download the entire 30-page report, follow this link.
The Beginnings
Where did it all start for Sam Bankman-Fried? As the story goes, Bankman-Fried, a former international ETF trader at Jane Street Capital, stumbled upon the nascent bitcoin/cryptocurrency markets in 2017 and was shocked at the amount of “risk-free” arbitrage opportunity that existed.
In particular, Bankman-Fried said the infamous Kimchi Premium, which is the large difference between the price of bitcoin in South Korea versus other global markets (due to capital controls), was a particular opportunity that he took advantage of to first start making his millions, and eventually billions …
At least that’s how the story goes.
The real story, while possibly similar to what SBF liked to tell to explain the meteoric rise of Alameda and subsequently FTX, looks to have been one riddled with deception and fraud, as the “smartest guy in the room” narrative, one that saw Bankman-Fried on the cover of Forbes and touted as the “modern day JP Morgan,” quickly changed to one of massive scandal in what looks to be the largest financial fraud in modern history.
The Start Of The Alameda Ponzi
As the story goes, Alameda Research was a high-flying proprietary trading fund that used quantitative strategies to achieve outsized returns in the cryptocurrency market. While the story was believable on the surface, due to the seemingly inefficient nature of the cryptocurrency market/industry, the red flags for Alameda were glaring from the start.
As the fallout of FTX unfolded, previous Alameda Research pitch decks from 2019 began to circulate, and for many the content was quite shocking. We will include the full deck below before diving into our analysis.
…
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-ftx-ponzi:-uncovering-the-largest-fraud-in-crypto-history
How Many Cryptocurrencies Are There in 2023?
As of November 2022, there are 21,844 cryptocurrencies in existence.
However, not all cryptocurrencies are active or valuable. Discounting many “dead” cryptos leaves only around 9,314 active cryptocurrencies.
There are upwards of 300 million cryptocurrency users across the globe. And approximately 18,000 businesses now accept a form of crypto as payment.
Sources: CoinMarketCap, investing.com
…
Month, Year Number of Cryptocurrencies
April 2013 7
January 2014 67
January 2015 501
January 2016 572
January 2017 636
January 2018 1,359
January 2019 2,086
January 2020 2,403
January 2021 4,154
January 2022 8,714
November 2022 9,314
…
https://explodingtopics.com/blog/number-of-cryptocurrencies
It’s not worth all the attention you give it. History can write this whole thing in a few sentences.
Basically, a cat chasing the MSM laser.
‘…there are 21,844 cryptocurrencies in existence.
However, not all cryptocurrencies are active or valuable. Discounting many “dead” cryptos leaves only around 9,314 active cryptocurrencies.’
How much longer will it take for the rest of those 9,314 cryptocurrencies to return to fundamental value?
shhhhh i bought some property on planet Orangetitanium and it increased 40% ……….don’t jinx me. they just found some 1/4 mile away they are getting close to meeeee
INTERNATIONAL LUNAR LAND REGISTRY
Welcome To The Moon!
LUNAR REAL ESTATE PROPERTY ON THE MOON
https://lunarregistry.com/moon-land/
(snip)
Ready to get started? Choose your landing site on the Moon!
CURRENT PROPERTY OFFERINGS VIA
INTERNATIONAL LUNAR LAND REGISTRY
(right here is where you’ll need to go to da link)
SELECT YOUR PREFERRED LOCATION FROM THE REGIONS LISTED ABOVE
Buy Moon Property – Own Lunar Land (Image)
(snip)
All property prices are stated in US$ per acre based on current exchange rates.
LUNAR LAND REGISTRY
Have they established a military base there?
water water everywhere and not a drop to drink
The first sign of serious trouble for the drought-stricken American Southwest could be a whirlpool.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/officials-fear-complete-doomsday-scenario-202316932.html
Suddenly, building all those cities in the Sonora desert seems like a bad idea.
Miraculous Recovery of Hypoxemic COVID-19 Patients With Ivermectin
Unhooking spike hemagglutinated red blood cells
Dr. Peter A. McCullough
John Leake
The past three years have generated millions of case vignettes of patients with COVID-19 respiratory illness. The most dramatic cases include critically ill inpatients with severe hypoxemia despite maximum respiratory support.
By far, the most notable cases of survival have occurred with the administration of ivermectin. Former NIH researcher David Scheim, PhD, early in the pandemic proposed that SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein was acting like a grappling hook pulling together circulating red blood cells into long chains and clumps in a process called hemagglutination. This explained why the red blood cells could not carry oxygen normally and was congruent with the finding of micro blood clots in the lungs. Recently, Boschi et al have provided additional support for this mechanism.[i] In a spectacular publication, Stone et al, describes the prompt improvement of oxygenation in patients with ivermectin.[ii]
The published oxygenation curves from multiple studies clearly show this physiological effect of ivermectin occurs so rapidly, it must be explained by a direct anti-Spike protein effect of ivermectin. An anonymous video of a critically ill man demonstrates the very effect that Scheim, Stone, Hazan, and Babalola have described in the Figure.[iii] So for the next critically ill patient with COVID-19, if the opportunity presents itself, push for the administration of ivermectin. This is the only published therapy for COVID-19 that improves oxygen saturation while the patient mounts a recovery. As in this man, it may be the critical factor for a turnaround and a chance to walk out of the hospital.
Reposted from the author’s Substack
https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/miraculous-recovery-of-hypoxemic-covid-19-patients-with-ivermectin_4899987.html
Two moire celebs reported to have died in their sleep. Minor celebs: Brad Henke and some guy from Dog the bounty Hunter, but still, this is ramping up. Meanwhile, the “experts” wring their hands over people refusing the latest booster. People are seeing what’s happening and finally waking up.
Any thoughts on why Mr Market was so glum today?
‘It’s taking longer than I thought’: Why some jobs seekers can’t find work
Stocks tumble after better-than-expected jobs report
By Paul R. La Monica, CNN Business
Updated 6:13 p.m. ET, December 2, 2022
What we covered here
– Stocks tumbled after a better-than-expected November’s jobs report — the last one before the Fed’s next rate decision.
– America added a robust 263,000 jobs last month, defying expectations and the Fed’s efforts to cool the economy. Economists polled by Refinitiv expected job growth to have slowed to just 200,000 positions added.
– The report shows the US economy remains healthy, but Wall Street interpreted the big number as bad news, because it means the Fed’s rate hikes aren’t necessarily working as expected.
…
https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/stock-market-jobs-news-today/index.html
What was a worse investment in 2022: cryptocurrency or lumber?
Manufacturing
Commodities Corner
Lumber Prices Can’t Stop Falling. The Housing Market Is Struggling.
By Myra P. Saefong
Updated Dec. 1, 2022 9:53 am ET / Original Dec. 1, 2022 3:15 am ET
The lackluster demand for lumber is driven by a struggling housing market.
Frederic J. Brown/AFP/Getty Images
Lumber has the dubious honor of being among the biggest commodity price decliners this year, and the outlook for the market doesn’t look to improve anytime soon.
Random-length lumber for January delivery settled at $423.80 per 1,000 board feet on Nov. 29, down about 63% for the year.
…
https://www.barrons.com/articles/lumber-prices-housing-market-51669882501
settled at $423.80 per 1,000 board feet
Sorry, if you read the fine print, it’s 110,000 board feet.
Bitcoin Set for More Losses in Wake of FTX’s Collapse if History Is a Guide
– Weak December almost always follows November losses in token
– Question is whether balm of a less fiery Fed will ease anxiety
– Novogratz: Bitcoin Will Take Longer to Hit $500,000
By Akshay Chinchalkar
December 1, 2022 at 8:27 PM PST
A seasonal cryptocurrency pattern points to more losses for Bitcoin in December in the wake of the seismic collapse of the FTX exchange.
The largest token sank 16% in November and over the past decade it always went on to have a weak December following declines in the prior month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The pattern was evident in 2018, 2019 and 2021, leaving an average December slide of almost 11%. If history repeats, crypto may lag stocks given heightened expectations for this quarter’s equity rebound to continue in the run-up to Christmas as the Federal Reserves swivels to smaller interest-rate hikes.
“The digital asset class is working through a period of contagion, where assessing counterparty credit risk and solvency remains imperative,” said John Toro, head of trading at digital-asset exchange Independent Reserve. “It seems most likely that during this period of heightened credit risk, Bitcoin will underperform other high-beta risk assets.”
Bah Humbug
Bitcoin’s November drops have trickled into December
…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-02/bitcoin-set-for-more-losses-in-wake-of-ftx-s-collapse-if-history-is-a-guide
The Financial Times
FTX Trading Ltd
Sam Bankman-Fried’s hedge fund took big hit to prop up FTX exchange
Alameda Research sustained up to $1bn loss last year when client’s trade on obscure token went sour
Montage of Sam Bankman-Fried and the FTX logo
The heavy lending from FTX to Alameda proved to be a fatal weakness for Sam Bankman-Fried’s empire
Joshua Oliver and Kadhim Shubber in London 15 hours ago
Hedge fund Alameda Research stepped in to shelter FTX from a loss of up to $1bn after a customer trade on the crypto platform blew up last year, highlighting the deep and longstanding links between Sam Bankman-Fried’s digital asset companies.
Alameda in early 2021 shouldered FTX’s burden when a client’s leveraged bet on an obscure token tore through buffers designed to shield the exchange from sustaining losses when a trade goes bad, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
The incident, which has not been previously reported and came more than a year before FTX collapsed into bankruptcy, shows how when one pillar of Bankman-Fried’s crypto conglomerate came under stress, he would shift the weight to another, treating the businesses that were portrayed publicly as separate as if they were one group.
It also shows how the ties between Bankman-Fried’s proprietary trading company and his FTX crypto exchange acted as a ballast long before this year’s digital asset market turmoil, when Alameda itself was bailed out with billions of dollars of loans from FTX as its other lenders retreated.
The deep relationship between FTX and Alameda, highlighted by these mutual bailouts, lies at the heart of a corporate disaster that has left potentially millions of creditors out of pocket, destroyed a business once valued at $32bn and triggered multiple investigations spanning the world just as Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire once did.
…
I guess it’s not turtles all the way down anymore in the cryptoverse.
Billions Missing: Inside the FTX Crash
George Stephanopoulos sits down with FTX’s founder and former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried to discuss the events that led to the company’s undoing, his role and culpability in it all, and a path forward.
…
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/video/billions-missing-inside-ftx-crash-94377944
Opinion: Crypto is out of control. FTX is just the latest example
Opinion by Casey Michel
Updated 6:28 PM EST, Thu December 1, 2022
Editor’s Note: Casey Michel is a writer and investigative journalist covering kleptocracy and dark money networks across the globe. He is the author of “American Kleptocracy: How the US Created the World’s Greatest Money Laundering Scheme in History,” and is at work on a book investigating foreign lobbying in Washington. The opinions expressed in this article are his own.
CNN —
As investigators and authorities continue to sort through the fallout of the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, the contours of the implosion are becoming clearer. It will likely take many more months to disentangle the web of corporate greed and financial malfeasance at the heart of FTX’s bankruptcy. But we can safely say that the company owes billions of dollars to creditors and, according to sources, at least $1 billion to clients, in what appears to be the greatest crypto collapse to date.
…
https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/01/opinions/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-bahamas-michel/index.html
BREAKING NEWS!
“Homebuyer’s remorse: Thousands of Americans are backing out of buying a home”
This is something that Ben Jones and his blog followers need to be aware of.
(snip)
The housing market is cooling as homebuyers contend with increasing interest rates and high prices — and some are even pulling out after they sign the dotted line.
\
(imagine that)
About 60,000 home purchase agreements fell through in October, according to RedFin. That’s the most on record since the real estate brokerage started tracking that data in 2013. Deal cancellations and price cuts also hit record highs as prospective buyers moved more tentatively following the biggest mortgage-rate jump in over four decades.
(who could’ve ever seen this coming?)
Once you’ve made an offer on a home and the seller has accepted it, there are still a few steps before the house is officially yours.
From the time an offer is accepted and when it goes through, you’ll be in a limbo period called “under contract.”
Here’s what you need to know if you decide you want to back out of the deal.
(link on the article if you really need to know what you need to know)
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/homebuyer-remorse-thousands-americans-backing-210000693.html
‘It is a little heartbreaking where we thought we would be out of there by now, but now we’re not…It’s been challenging to be in a down market now, where you think you have a plan and the plans change’
Ennio Morricone – the ecstasy of gold
Dec 24, 2010
Ennio Morricone conducting his own composition, “The Ecstasy of Gold” from the film, “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKFpaCMRWgU
The World Economic Forum’s anthem …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeJjWBp1fgk
This 316-Acre Colorado Ranch Once Owned by Late Rocker Joe Cocker Just Listed for $18 Million
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/316-acre-colorado-ranch-once-210000116.html
Do house prices somehow “know” how far they need to fall in order to return to trend?
Business Insider
A housing market correction will take a long time and prices need to fall as much as 20% in the next few years to return to their historical trend
Jennifer Sor
Thu, December 1, 2022 at 7:38 AM·2 min read
housing
Robert Galbraith/ Reuters
– The housing market correction will take time, according to DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas.
– Colas pointed to the length of previous housing cycles, where home prices strayed from long-term trends for years.
– He predicted home prices would need to drop by 15%-20% for the market to return to its long-term growth trend.
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-correction-long-time-153832800.html
Ideas
You Should Probably Wait to Buy a Home
Why the housing market is so brutal right now
By Annie Lowrey
An illustration of a yellow “For Sale” sign that reads: “Slow”
Getty; The Atlantic
November 30, 2022
Should you even try to buy a house right now? Asking real-estate agents, economists, and potential homebuyers that question is likely to elicit something between a whimper and a scream these days. “It never feels like a great time to buy a house,” Danielle Hale, the chief economist at Realtor.com, told me. “You’re committing yourself to paying this enormous mortgage over a really long period of time.” But, she said, something that is always “a little bit scary” is “particularly scary” right now. Many Americans seem to share that sentiment: Half as many home sales occurred this past July as in the same month two years ago.
A confluence of factors, some structural and some cyclical, have aligned to make the current housing market among the most challenging, expensive, and stressful ones in recent years. A few lucky Americans are poised to pick up some deals, while many other families are negotiating the process by lowering their expectations or increasing their budget. “There are always people out there for whom now is the best time,” Daryl Fairweather, the chief economist at Redfin, told me. “There are people who are trying to move across the country for a new job opportunity. There are people who have been laid off and need to rethink their finances.”
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https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/housing-market-when-to-buy-a-home-mortgage/672293/
Housing market has ‘further to fall’ as buyers walk away and sellers scramble for profit
Talk about a harsh wake-up call for sellers.
Maurie Backman
The Motley Fool
There’s a reason sellers have had such a huge advantage over buyers over the past few years. The real estate market has lacked inventory in a very big way. Meanwhile, the supply of available homes began to dwindle at a time when mortgage rates began falling to record lows. That sparked a huge gap between supply and demand that drove home prices way up.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2022/12/01/real-estate-housing-market-goldman-sachs/69679884007/
Look out below when the equivocation of the realtor who lies like truth begins to seem doubtful.
Trends
Home Prices Fall and Listings Soar: Could It Be a Great Time To Buy Despite High Mortgage Rates?
By Margaret Heidenry
Dec 1, 2022
As the housing market barrels toward the end of the year and all of its holiday trimmings, potential homebuyers are likely wondering what’s in store for the coming season.
Home shoppers looking for lower asking prices can officially check that off their wish list. November’s median home list price of $416,000 was much more wallet-friendly than June’s record high of $449,000, according to a recent report from Realtor.com®.
Yet the volatile real estate landscape is not quite ready to bring only glad tidings. High mortgage rates—which, as of Wednesday, hover at 6.58% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan—are a stark reminder that many buyers might still struggle on the affordability front.
“Even though prices are down month to month, they’re still up by double digits from a year ago,” says Danielle Hale, chief economist of Realtor.com. “And with mortgage rates also up, buying a home is more expensive than last year.”
This deadly combo of high home prices and interest rates adds up to the fact that median mortgage payments are now about $900 higher each month than they were just one year earlier.
So, while all is not merry and bright in the world of real estate, there are inroads for intrepid buyers.
Inventory is soaring, but is that good news?
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https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/home-prices-fall-and-listings-soar-could-it-be-a-great-time-to-buy-despite-high-mortgage-rates/
Yahoo
Fortune
Fed Chair Powell: U.S. ‘housing bubble’ formed during the pandemic and now ‘the housing market will go through the other side of that’
Lance Lambert
Thu, December 1, 2022 at 7:37 AM·6 min read
In 2005, Fed Chair Alan Greenspan told Congress that a “bubble in home prices for the nation as a whole does not appear likely.” Of course, not only had a housing bubble formed, it was nearing its peak just as Greenspan delivered that message on Capitol Hill.
Fast forward to 2022, and the scars of the last bubble have clearly made economists less afraid to acknowledge a housing bubble—even if they believe the bubble could be less dangerous than the one that formed in the early 2000s.
On Tuesday, the most powerful economist in the world did just that: Speaking at a Brookings Institute event, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told the audience that the run-up in home prices during the Pandemic Housing Boom qualifies a “housing bubble.”
“Coming out of the pandemic, [mortgage] rates were very low, people wanted to buy houses, they wanted to get out of the cities and buy houses in the suburbs because of COVID. So you really had a housing bubble, you had housing prices going up [at] very unsustainable levels and overheating and that kind of thing. So, now the housing market will go through the other side of that and hopefully come out in a better place between supply and demand,” Powell said.
According to past statements by Powell, that process of bringing “balance” to the U.S. housing market has already begun. In June, Powell said spiked mortgage rates would help to “reset” the U.S. housing market. Then in September, Powell told reporters that we had officially entered into a “difficult [housing] correction” that would restore “balance” to the market.
That “bubble” acknowledgment by Powell comes on the heels of an article published in November by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas with the title “Skimming U.S. Housing Froth a Delicate, Daunting Task.” The article argued that policymakers should try to deflate the bubble rather than burst it.
“In the current environment, when housing demand is showing signs of softening, monetary policy needs to carefully thread the needle of bringing inflation down without setting off a downward house-price spiral—a significant housing sell-off—that could aggravate an economic downturn,” writes Martínez-García at the Dallas Fed. “A severe housing bust from the frothy pandemic run-up isn’t inevitable. Although the situation is challenging, there remains a window of opportunity to deflate the housing bubble while achieving the Fed’s preferred outcome of a soft landing.”
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https://www.yahoo.com/video/fed-chair-powell-u-housing-153730490.html
Scratch a Liberal and you’ll find a Fascist.
‘Everyone Knew This Was F*cked:’ Elon Musk Releases Twitter’s Internal Convos on Hunter Biden Laptop Censorship
ALLUM BOKHAR
I2 Dec 2022
https://www.breitbart.com/
What happened to the MPox emergency?
Maybe there aren’t that many men having indiscriminate promiscuous unprotected sex with men after all…
Living with HIV? Today, it’s just living.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fI-9vh5QYGM