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Winter Is Here For Investors

A report from 5280 in Colorado. “This past summer Point2 showed metro Denver homes, on average, increased in price $94 each day between 2011 and 2021. As interest rates increased and the economy started to slow in mid-2022, real estate agent Daniel Dixon began hearing from potential millennial clients who hoped their window to homeownership might begin to open. ‘They think this is the moment the housing bubble bursts in Colorado,’ the 37-year-old says. ‘It’s a tough conversation to have. I’m telling people we’re never again going to see that $300,000 single-family home in Denver. It’s not happening, and that’s the reality we’ve just got to accept.'”

“‘I look at my parents and where they were heading financially at my age, and I just don’t see that as a possibility in my life,’ says McKenzie Fuller, 26, a young millennial from Iowa who shares a two-bedroom Capitol Hill apartment with her Gen Z friend. ‘If you don’t want to live in a complete piece of shit in this city,’ Fuller says, ‘you have to be willing to spend at least $1,100 per person.'”

The Orange County Register. “Home prices declined in two-thirds of U.S. metro areas this summer with the priciest markets suffering the most depreciation. Price declines between the spring and summer quarters were found in 125 metro areas – that’s 68% of the markets tracked – with a median loss of 3.4%. In the 55 metros across the nation with median prices above $400,000, 46 (or 84%) saw declines. In the 76 metros with median prices between $250,000 and $400,000, 53 (or 70%) had price declines. And in the 54 metros with medians below $250,000, 26 (or 58%) saw prices fall. Three of the summer’s 10 biggest drops came from California.”

“The No. 1 loser nationwide was San Francisco, down 16.1% to $1.3 million. Then came …Naples, Florida.: Down 12.2% to $746,600. Austin, Texas: Down 11.7% to $541,600. Boulder, Colorado.: Down 11.4% to $826,900. San Jose: Down 11.2% to $1.68 million. Seattle: Down 9.5% to $741,300. Fort Myers, Florida.: Down 8.7% to $420,000. Spokane, Washington: Down 7.8% to $422,500. Ann Arbor, Michigan: Down 7.7% to $377,200. Orange County: Down 7.7% to $1.1 million.”

“Not mentioned above were …San Diego: Down 6.8% in the summer quarter to $900,000. Sacramento: Down 6.1% to $535,000. Fresno: Down 3.4% to $410,000. Inland Empire: Down 3.1% to $567,000.”

From DS News. “ATTOM has issued a Special Housing Risk Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the nation that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, foreclosures, and other measures in Q3 of 2022. ATTOM’s report shows that New Jersey, Illinois, Delaware, and inland California continued to have the highest concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country, with the biggest clusters in the New York City, Chicago, and Philadelphia areas.”

“‘As the prospect of a possible recession hangs over the U.S. economy, counties in three of the seven largest metropolitan areas–New York City, Chicago, and Philadelphia–are among the most vulnerable to a potential downturn in their housing markets,’ said Rick Sharga, EVP of Market Intelligence at ATTOM. ‘These counties, and many more in Central California share a number of traits–poor affordability, relatively high unemployment and foreclosure rates, and homeowners who are underwater on their loans–which could spell trouble if the economy takes a turn for the worse.'”

“At least 7% of residential mortgages were underwater in Q3 of 2022 in 28 of the 50 most at-risk counties. Nationwide, 5.7% of mortgages fell into that category, with homeowners owing more on their mortgages than the estimated value of their properties. Those with the highest underwater rates among the 50 most at-risk counties were:Peoria County, Illinois (16.8% underwater). Tangipahoa Parish, Louisiana (outside New Orleans) (15.7% underwater). Saint Clair County, Illinois (outside St. Louis) (15.1% underwater).Kankakee County, Illinois (outside Chicago) (14.8% underwater). Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania (14.5% underwater).”

“Roughly twice as many foreclosure cases were open in the third quarter of 2022 compared to same period in 2021.) The highest foreclosure rates in the top 50 counties were in: De Kalb County, Illinois (outside Chicago) (one in 289 residential properties facing possible foreclosure). Peoria County, Illinois (one in 326 residential properties facing possible foreclosure). Sussex County, New Jersey (outside New York City) (one in 410 residential properties facing possible foreclosure). Cumberland County, New Jersey (one in 433 residential properties facing possible foreclosure). Will County, Illinois (one in 457 residential properties facing possible foreclosure).”

North Shore News. “November housing sales and price data continued a downward spiral seen over the past seven months, with total transactions down 52.9 per cent from a year earlier and homes shredding more than 10 per cent of value since the spring price peak, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. Greater Vancouver sales in November were the lowest since 1967 and nearly 37 per cent below the 10-year average, while another increase in interest rate hike is expected December 7, the seventh from the Bank of Canada this year.”

“The condominium market, which accounted for half of all the November sales, is also stronger than most suspect, according to Ben Smith, president of Toronto-based Avesdo, a software firm that tracks real estate data. He noted in a recent column in Storeys that price comparisons between pre-pandemic 2019 and today shows Metro Vancouver condos proved a solid investment, with price gains of up to 150 per cent for new units in the past three years.”

“‘When reviewing recent data from the REBGV  it’s not difficult to be swept away by the descriptions of decreased year-over-year sales or lowered month-over-month prices. But industry insiders know that real estate – and new home development in particular – is a long game, and comparisons between astronomical mid-COVID-19 activity and today’s more typical market simply can’t lead to reality-rooted conclusions,’ Smith said.”

From CBC News in Canada. “For nearly a decade, new condos have been regarded as sound investments in Toronto but rising interest rates coupled with the flattening of average sales prices since March mean some investors are facing an increased financial burden — even struggling to close on projects nearing completion. Those who invested in preconstruction condos in particular are in increasingly challenging positions. In some cases, they’re unable to finance the closing of a property due to lower than expected appraisals and interest rates that are significantly higher than when they bought the units.”

“‘Preconstruction condos for the most part that were purchased in 2019 through 2020, after commissions, after fees, those individuals are not making any profits on this side. They’re probably actually taking the loss,’ said Jordon Scrinko, CEO of Precondo, a firm that handles mainly preconstruction projects. He says it’s been a busy few months for his firm. But not busy in a good way.”

“‘It’s putting out a lot of fires, calming a lot of people down, trying to find out-of-the-box solutions,’ said Scrinko, who adds the firm has been getting lots of calls from other people’s clients looking for help as they approach a project’s completion. ‘We’re trying to make sure that  .. we can provide them solutions and get them through what is relatively a tough time for them.'”

“Figures from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board show since March the average sales price for condos in the GTA dropped nearly 12 per cent, and nearly 11 per cent in Toronto. At the same time, the Bank of Canada’s trend-setting interest rate has increased steadily through this year, now sitting at 3.75 per cent. A five-year fixed-rate mortgage at most Canadian banks sits at about five per cent. Some say the math doesn’t add up for many preconstruction condo investors who bought in over the last few years.”

“‘We have a wildly changed mortgage environment,’ said Rob Butler with Butler Mortgage in Toronto. He says investors who bought into the market 18 months ago could get mortgages, both fixed and variable, with fairly low rates of interest. ‘Those are long gone. Every rate that they look at today is in the fives,’ Butler said, adding that those who stretched themselves to invest in multiple units in recent years are in the most difficult position. ‘Even if [the buyer] could come up with all the down payment, even if he could qualify for mortgages at these new stress test rates … It’s a real big issue,’ he said. ‘They’ve got to find a way to finance the closing of three different condominiums in a marketplace where the rents probably won’t cover the cost of the mortgage.'”

“Scrinko says he’s never seen anything like it before. ‘We’re seeing a 50 per cent plus increase in assignment volume versus what would normally see,’ he said. While it’s difficult to track assignment sales since they’re not listed on MLS, Scrinko says he’s seeing deals to be had with much more competitive prices because of the volume. ‘I’ve said for years … never buy a preconstruction condo with the sole intention of assignment flipping it for profit. Yes, it’s worked for over a decade in Toronto but eventually it will bite,’ said Scrinko. ‘I guess today is the day.'”

“‘Even though rates may eventually come down, I think we’re in for a pretty rough year of difficult situations coming in 2023,’ said Butler ‘Winter is coming. It’s here for those investors. There’s just no mathematical sense to being able to make money on the property.'”

The Australian Financial Review. “For owner occupiers and property investors like Canberra-based Sharon Chan and her partner Duy Tran, the prospect of more rates is causing ‘uncertainty and fear.’ The couple, who have two young children, claim they are ‘just trying to survive’ as their cost of living rises and value of their major assets continue to slide. The nation’s residential property prices have dropped by about 7.5 per cent since the first of seven cash rate rises in May, which means price gains from the recent peak in June have been lost.”

“An owner-occupier paying principal and interest with 25 years remaining on a $1 million is already paying $6190 a month – an extra $1520 a year since rates started rising in May, according to RateCity, which monitors interest rates. A similar buyer with a $1.5 million mortgage is paying $9284 a month – $2280 extra since May. For a buyer with a $2 million mortgage, the increase is $4233 a month.”

“‘It’s creating a lot of pressure, causing us to economise and is making our attempts at financial planning very difficult as rates keep going up,’ says Chan, who is also attempting to negotiate a rise in rents on her investment property to cover increasing costs.”

“The outlook is even tougher for nearly 2 million fixed rate loans (including loans split between fixed and variable rates) worth more than $450 billion that are due for renewal in the next 16 months, an analysis of borrowing statistics shows. They typically fixed between 1.95 per cent and 2.09 per cent in 2020. Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, warns the fall in prices is less than halfway to the expected nadir, with a tumble of up to 20 per cent likely before bottoming. ‘Those coming off fixed rates will see their mortgage rates jump to 5 per cent and 6 per cent next year, increasing mortgage stress and likely resulting in some distressed selling,’ says Oliver.”

“Buyers agents claim many buyers who purchased before the rate rises started in May are relying on the Bank of Mum and Dad – a term used to describe parental assistance – to help pay down the principal. ‘Many are very scared about rising rates,’ says buyers agent Cate Bakos. ‘If they could let go of the property by selling, they would.'”

The New Zealand Herald. “Bay of Plenty’s residential and lifestyle property sales have dropped by 41.6 per cent in one year and some real estate agents have exited the industry off the back of the ‘tough’ market. A rapid rise in interest rates is believed to have had a big impact and the boss of the Bay’s biggest agency said properties were taking longer to sell and pricing was down about 10 per cent. Another likened it to the ‘bubble bursting’ but said it could benefit first-home buyers, who would need less money for a deposit.”

“A OneRoof-Valocity Year in Review report reveals that to the year ending in October, Bay of Plenty residential and lifestyle properties sales fell by 41.6 per cent to 4130. A snapshot of Tauranga showed the average median house price fell $135,100 from a peak of $1.25 million in April to $1.23m now.”

“Tauranga Tremains Real Estate managing director Anton Jones said the market had changed drastically and ‘quicker than I’ve ever seen it.’ ‘Finance is a massive challenge within the industry at the moment. The market had also been going up and up and obviously the longer it goes up the bigger the fall.'”

“He said over time a lot of landlords had cashed in on their investments, which had all led to the ‘bubble bursting.’ ‘It was pretty evident in January and February that things have changed. And it immediately got harder to sell properties. They weren’t selling quick enough, therefore a lot of people were sitting on their hands waiting and that affects property prices.'”

“He said there weren’t as many people entering the real estate industry because everyone knew it was harder. You ‘tend to find when the market is going nuts people go ‘oh I may as well get into real estate because I’m going to kill it’. There will be a lot of older, perhaps more experienced agents who will be going ‘I can’t be bothered going through another one of these recessions … it’s too tough and I’m going to get out.’ If you are not selling it’s difficult.'”

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This Post Has 116 Comments

  1. ‘At least 7% of residential mortgages were underwater in Q3 of 2022 in 28 of the 50 most at-risk counties. Nationwide, 5.7% of mortgages fell into that category, with homeowners owing more on their mortgages than the estimated value of their properties’

    Sound lending!

  2. ‘But industry insiders know that real estate – and new home development in particular – is a long game, and comparisons between astronomical mid-COVID-19 activity and today’s more typical market simply can’t lead to reality-rooted conclusions’

    Watch out for that tree George.

    1. Here’s some long game but it depends on your perspective. Killer deal or kill the deal? In this video, the narrator drives around several north west Texas ghost towns. Once bustling and thriving, now dead. The first few are county seats; you could probably take a county like this over with one large family and a few friends.

      Some of you will recoil in horror at the prospect of living in one of these towns but how is it worse geographically than places in AZ and NV that people flock to? I’m not suggesting that anyone should necessarily move to one of these places, but it can be interesting to view them especially against the backdrop of the current mania. The REIC would lead you to believe that you can’t lose in Texas. At one time these towns were full of winners.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmNEiWSo8Fg

  3. ‘Buyers agents claim many buyers who purchased before the rate rises started in May are relying on the Bank of Mum and Dad – a term used to describe parental assistance – to help pay down the principal. ‘Many are very scared about rising rates,’ says buyers agent Cate Bakos. ‘If they could let go of the property by selling, they would’

    But they can always sell? Wa happened to yer love affair with shacks?

    Mom, dad, it’s good money after bad. Yer broke on yer shacks anyway.

  4. “If you don’t want to live in a complete piece of shit in this city,” Fuller says, “you have to be willing to spend at least $1,100 per person.”

    Two words. Only Fans

    1. Even worse, if you don’t want to drive around in a POS car anymore you have to be willing to pay $1,100 per month. What a world, eh?

      2. WFH means my old Honda only leaves the garage a couple times each week. If I was racking up miles still it would be closer and closer to replacement.

    2. Capitol Hill in Denver = tents, needles, and feces.

      I live in Arapahoe County for a reason, because tents, needles, and feces.

      Enjoy your tents, needles, and feces, McKenzie, you’re not in Iowa anymore…

  7. “‘I look at my parents and where they were heading financially at my age, and I just don’t see that as a possibility in my life,’ says McKenzie Fuller, 26, a young millennial from Iowa who shares a two-bedroom Capitol Hill apartment with her Gen Z friend.

    Guarantee McKenzie & her roomie blindly vote D every election cuz “my body, my choice,” having no inkling their vote for the crony capitalist status quo has blighted their economic futures and put them at serious risk of being victimized by criminals in suits as well as street thugs.

  8. “Those who make peaceful change impossible make violent revolution inevitable.” — JFK

    FBI Ramps Up Spending to Fight MAGA Terrorism

    https://www.newsweek.com/2022/12/23/fbi-ramps-spending-fight-maga-terrorism-1764498.html

    The FBI is conducting three times as many domestic terrorism investigations than it was five years ago, with 70 percent of its open cases focused on “civil unrest” and anti-government activity, according to FBI documents and government specialists. The Bureau has also quietly changed the general classification of white supremacy, antisemitism, abortion-, and anti-LGBTQI+-related extremism to “hate crimes” rather than “terrorism.” Since terrorism remains the top national security priority, this has lowered the visibility and resources dedicated to those issues.

  9. “The No. 1 loser nationwide was San Francisco, down 16.1% to $1.3 million. Then came …Naples, Florida.: Down 12.2% to $746,600. Austin, Texas: Down 11.7% to $541,600. Boulder, Colorado.: Down 11.4% to $826,900. San Jose: Down 11.2% to $1.68 million.

    Is that a lot?

    2. No, it is not alot. At all. Gains of 300% and more and “cratered” a teenage juvenile amount? More like a zit.

  10. Nationwide, 5.7% of mortgages fell into that category, with homeowners owing more on their mortgages than the estimated value of their properties.

    Gosh, what happens if underwater FBs stop making mortgage payments, while refusing to leave “their” houses? I fear this could cause a significant impairment of the underlying loan collateral. Insert “gravely concerned” emoji here.

    1. I fully expect more “foreclosure moratoriums.” This ain’t a free market anymore. Crony capitalists gonna crony.

  11. “November housing sales and price data continued a downward spiral seen over the past seven months, with total transactions down 52.9 per cent from a year earlier and homes shredding more than 10 per cent of value since the spring price peak, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

    FBs, you’ll always have that afterglow of being the winnahs of bidding wars to “buy” those insanely overpriced shacks. No one can take that triumph away from you!

  14. A reader sent these in:

    JFC (401 k hardship withdrawals)

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1599503937282793473

    For anyone doubting how fast prices can fall, we’re hearing about 13% to 18% price cuts being what sells entry-level homes in Texas.

    https://twitter.com/ALROnHousing/status/1599508447044960256

    Donna Bacher, Broker

    Just had a conversation with a popular RE Lawyer- no residential deals closing til Feb 23. Has gone from 40 deals/month to 0. No deals for lawyers = no deals for agents. IMHO, ignore the SM media chatter. FIRE in Ontario is facing a very frosty winter & 2023.

    https://twitter.com/loveurhome/status/1598738767749287967

    SBF is a distraction Cliff. A morsel offered up to deflect attention from the imminent demise of the ‘non-bank’ Tapeworms and their ilk. ABS Securitization is a scam. It has never been tested by a full credit cycle. That time is coming, and worlds will be rocked.

    https://twitter.com/Stimpyz1/status/1599131482701721601

    First Blackstone, now Starwood

    Two of the biggest industry players

    This is incredibly bearish for RE

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1599448085901590535

    1. So this is their story. An FBI agent made us to it.

      Next up?

      “Rogue FBI agent, unsupervised and unauthorized, influenced social media companies. We have to make sure this never happens again.”

    2. It used to be that Dems fought the police/surveillance state harder than Repubs. That has done a 180 and then some. The Democrat Party has turned into The New Nazi Party.

      1. Republicans went all in for the surveillance because they thought it was to keep the “evil mooslims” at bay. When it became clear that the same apparatus can be used against Americans, Democrats went all in. Proves again repubs are the feckless party.

  16. ‘It’s a tough conversation to have. I’m telling people we’re never again going to see that $300,000 single-family home in Denver.”

    Wanna bet?

    1. from that article:

      “Realtor.com reported in September that the median listing price in the city was $585,000—up more than 10 percent over the same time in 2021—and the median sales price was $645,000. ”

      Since no one anywhere is paying over list these days, it sounds like prices are about to start really crashing in Denver.

    2. What Happens When Millennials Can’t Afford to Live in Denver?

      Denver has been a hot spot for millennial transplants for years. But what happens when the generation born between roughly 1981 and 1996 suddenly becomes the one that can’t afford to stay?

      This piece is a worthwhile read.

      I’ve been to the Denver area many times, primarily to Lakewood on the west side, but I never saw anything that made it feel affordable or magical enough to pack-up my family and move there. I will admit to liking Golden though, but the home prices there were too inflated.

      1. It’s the “sunshine tax” LOL with an ample helping of smog and ground level ozone.

        I’m outside in a t-shirt right now.

        1. I’d be happy to live in flyover country in a modest paid for SFH and do annual hiking vacations in Colorado. House prices can only go up if you bought in recent year in Colorado. That is what needs to happen.

          1. “I’d be happy to live in flyover country in a modest paid for SFH…”

            I’m there right now, but college tuition and expenses, meaningful employment, life skills, etc., for our kids is the current peak to climb. Then I’ll see if can swim all the way back to the ocean.

          2. meaningful employment, life skills, etc., for our kids

            I never worked in my college town, or the town my parents lived post HS. My parents downsized when I went off to school in something like one month. If I wanted life coaching, it was either the telephone or invite him to go fishing with me.

    1. The Financial Times
      Circle Internet Financial Inc
      Crypto group Circle ends $9bn deal to go public through Bob Diamond’s Spac
      Deal collapse follows FTX bankruptcy and other crises in 2022 that have hit the sector
      Circle and USD coin logos
      Circle and Bob Diamond’s Concord Acquisition said they had ‘mutually agreed’ to abandon the merger
      Scott Chipolina in London 2 hours ago

      Stablecoin group Circle has ditched plans to go public in a $9bn deal through a blank cheque company chaired by former Barclays chief executive Bob Diamond, underlining how successive crises have hit the crypto sector.

      The tie-up, which was initially forged during the crypto bull market in July 2021 and was expanded early this year, was seeking a valuation of $7.65bn to $9bn. Circle and Concord Acquisition, Diamond’s US-listed special purpose acquisition vehicle, said on Monday they had “mutually agreed” to end the merger.

      The collapse of the Circle deal comes after the failure of digital asset exchange FTX, which knocked a crypto industry that was already under pressure from rising interest rates and a series of bankruptcies of big-name firms.

      Concord had until December 10 to finalise the deal to buy Circle, something that would have taken the latter public on the New York Stock Exchange.

      “We are disappointed the proposed transaction timed out; however, becoming a public company remains part of Circle’s core strategy to enhance trust and transparency, which has never been more important,” said Jeremy Allaire, Circle chief executive. Diamond added that he would “continue being an advocate for the company as it continues to grow”.

      Circle’s USD Coin is the second-largest stablecoin on the crypto market, with a valuation of around $43bn, according to data from Circle, falling from more than $55bn in June 2022 after investors pulled out of the crypto market.
      …

    2. Bloomberg
      Crypto Stocks Teeter Near Abyss as Fink’s Warning Adds to Angst
      Matt Turner
      Sat, December 3, 2022 at 7:00 AM·4 min read
      In this article:
      Crypto Stocks Teeter Near Abyss as Fink’s Warning Adds to Angst

      (Bloomberg) — Analysts and investors are struggling to call a bottom in crypto stocks in the wake of a brutal month that ended with the head of BlackRock Inc. saying most digital-asset firms won’t survive.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-stocks-teeter-near-abyss-150000942.html

      1. (Bloomberg) — Analysts and investors are struggling to call a bottom in crypto stocks in the wake of a brutal month that ended with the head of BlackRock Inc. saying most digital-asset firms won’t survive.

        How they ever took on life to begin with is beyond me. I guess P.T. Barnum was right – “there’s a sucker born every minute.”

        1. How they ever took on life

          Modern Spirituality, placing the mind of man at the center of the universe and of Creation.

        2. “No one in this world, so far as I know — and I have searched the records for years, and employed agents to help me — has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.” — H. L. Mencken

    3. Finance
      The Gemini crypto exchange run by the Winklevoss twins is owed $900 million following FTX’s collapse, report says
      Jyoti Mann
      Dec 4, 2022, 7:37 AM
      Gemini cofounders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss pose for a photo against a gray background.
      Gemini was founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss in 2014. Gemini

      – Crypto lender Genesis owes exchange platform Gemini $900 million, the Financial Times reported.
      – Gemini, run by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, is trying to recover its customers’ funds.
      – It has created a creditors committee and has hired an investment bank to devise solutions.
      …
      https://www.businessinsider.com/winklevoss-twins-run-crypto-exchange-owed-900-million-by-genesis-2022-12

    4. Would you exchange bundles of cold, hard physical cash for imaginary currency of indeterminate value and quantity?

      I wonder what got into people’s minds to make them think this was a sound investing strategy.

      1. The Financial Times
        FTX Trading Ltd
        How FTX used Hong Kong cash-for-crypto shop to turbocharge growth
        Genesis Block helped Sam Bankman-Fried’s group access hard cash and onboard wealthy clients
        Primrose Riordan and Chan Ho-him in Hong Kong yesterday

        At Sam Bankman-Fried’s 29th birthday in March last year, his closest colleagues and friends dressed up in curly wigs mimicking his trademark style. But they were not in the Bahamas — the scene of his spectacular unravelling last month — they were in Hong Kong, the birthplace of his FTX exchange.

        In the photo obtained by the Financial Times, Caroline Ellison, Bankman-Fried’s one-time romantic partner and chief of trading company Alameda Research, and FTX co-founder Gary Wang, smiled for the camera at The Crown, an exclusive club started by a Hong Kong celebrity with a private elevator and a seat in the shape of US dollar bills.

        The FTX executives were joined by staff from Genesis Block, a crypto retail service company part owned by FTX offshoot Alameda Ventures, which is separate from digital asset trading group Genesis and its parent company Digital Currency Group. At the time, Genesis Block was drawing a crowd with its unusual business model; in a world dominated by the web, it was exchanging crypto for physical cash.

        “People were literally lining up around the corner with bags of cash at Genesis Block, sometimes they shut the door saying they were out of bitcoin,” a former employee said.

        But last month, Bankman-Fried’s $32bn FTX filed for bankruptcy in a rapid fall from grace even by the standards of the freewheeling crypto industry. Days later, Genesis Block announced it too was shutting down its trading portal and would stop accepting deposits.

        The collapse has left a mark on local investors. “I have lost generational wealth, my children’s children will never forgive me,” said one. “I’ve got friends who are declaring personal bankruptcy.”
        …

  19. FBI Coordination With Big Tech Censorship Ahead of 2020 Election Revealed in Agent Deposition, Missouri AG Says

    Officials from the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security frequently met with major social media companies ahead of the 2020 election and pointed out users and pieces of content for removal, according to information from a deposition of a senior FBI agent revealed by a state Attorney General.

    “We found that the FBI plays a big role in working with social media companies to censor speech—from weekly meetings with social media companies ahead of the 2020 election to asks for account takedowns,” said Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt in a Dec. 2 series of tweets, three days after deposing Special Agent Elvis Chan, who is in charge of cyber affairs at the FBI San Francisco Field Office.

    Chan has given major social media companies warnings that have led them to censor information about a laptop belonging to Hunter Biden, son of President Joe Biden, shortly before the election that put Biden in office, according to a lawsuit against the Biden administration led by Schmitt and Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry.

    The laptop contained information about Hunter Biden’s overseas dealings that appears to indicate attempts to sell access to his father, who at the time was vice president.

    The suit alleges the administration violated the First Amendment by influencing social media to censor speech, including the laptop story. Some survey data suggests Biden might have lost the election if his voters were aware of the information.

    Chan testified that he and officials from the FBI’s Foreign Influence Task Force and the DHS’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency were meeting social media officials on a quarterly, then monthly, and finally, weekly basis as the election approached, Schmitt said in his tweets.

    “Chan stated that the FBI regularly sent social media companies lists of URLs and social media accounts that should be taken down because they were disinformation from ‘malign foreign influence operations,’” Schmitt said, adding that “on many occasions, the platforms took down the accounts flagged by the FBI.”

    The FBI defended itself by suggesting it was merely providing the companies information about who’s doing the talking on their platforms.

    “The FBI regularly engages with private sector entities to provide information specific to identified foreign malign influence actors’ subversive, undeclared, covert, or criminal activities,” the bureau said in a statement to Fox News.

    “It is not based on the content of any particular message or narrative.”

    Yet the attorneys general believe the FBI was specifically trying to suppress the Biden laptop story.

    “Chan personally told the social media companies that there could potentially be a Russian ‘hack and leak’ operation shortly before the election,” Schmitt said.

    Chan also referred to the operation as a “hack and dump,” an unnamed source in Schmitt’s office told Fox News.

    “On information and belief, the FBI’s reference to a ‘dump’ of information was a specific reference to the contents of Hunter Biden’s laptop, which was already in the FBI’s possession,” the suit says.

    The FBI argued the tech companies are censoring the content of their own accord.

    “Private sector entities independently make decisions about what, if any, action they take on their platforms and for their customers after the FBI has notified them,” its statement said.

    The deposition, however, indicated that the FBI saw to it that its censorship suggestions were acted upon.

    After flagging some links and accounts “the FBI then inquired whether the platforms have taken down the content,” Schmitt said in the tweets.

    There’s also evidence that the companies felt compelled to act on the takedown requests because they were coming from the FBI.

    “If the FBI… if they come to us and tell us we need to be on guard about something, then I want to take that seriously,” said Mark Zuckerberg, the chief executive of Meta, formerly known as Facebook, during an August interview with podcast host Joe Rogan.

    The FBI told Facebook ahead of the election to be “on high alert” regarding something “similar” to “Russian propaganda” ahead of the 2016 election, Zuckerberg said.

    “There’s about to be some kind of dump… that’s similar to that, so just be vigilant,” he recounted the FBI message as saying.

    Facebook then suppressed the Biden laptop story.

    Zuckerberg said he couldn’t remember if the FBI flagged the story specifically, but said it “basically fit the pattern” the FBI had identified.

    Twitter suppressed the story under its policy against “hacked” information, even though there was no evidence the information was hacked.

    There was some confusion among Twitter leadership on how the suppression was justified, according to internal Twitter communications obtained by independent journalist Matt Taibbi.

    “I support the conclusion that we need more facts to assess whether the materials were hacked,” said Twitter’s then-Deputy General Counsel James Baker, former general counsel for the FBI, in an internal communication.

    “At this stage, however, it is reasonable for us to assume that they may have been and that caution is warranted.”

    Chan’s deposition was ordered last month by District Judge Terry Doughty, an appointee of President Donald Trump.

    Chan “played a critical role for the FBI in coordinating with social-media platforms related to censorship,” the Louisiana federal judge said.

    The order meant a significant victory for Schmitt and Landry.

    “Since filing our lawsuit, we’ve uncovered troves of discovery that show a massive ‘censorship enterprise,’” Schmitt said in a statement his office emailed to The Epoch Times.

    “Now we’re deposing top government officials, and we’re one of the first to get a look under the hood—the information we’ve uncovered through those depositions has been shocking, to say the least. It’s clear from Tuesday’s deposition that the FBI has an extremely close role in working to censor freedom of speech. Stay tuned.”

    Landry added: “Americans should be angered that during the 2020 election cycle, federal agencies peddled information that has since been disproven. Additionally, agencies like the FBI contacted social media platforms to censor free speech to ‘protect us’ from disinformation. This case is just one of the many steps we have taken to stand up for the First Amendment rights of our citizens. No American should be censored by the government.”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/fbi-coordination-with-big-tech-censorship-ahead-of-2020-election-revealed-in-agent-deposition-missouri-ag-says_4903272.html

      1. No justice, no peace. All of it. Where did the CCP virus come from. Was it lab modified using US money. Why did China leave the Wuhan airport open. The 2020 election, the 2022 election. Until everyone is brought to justice, no peace.

        1. Precisely.

          Hundreds, perhaps a few thousand are complicit. I don’t wager but domestically, the top of this pyramid of treason is Clinton/Obama/Biden Crime Syndicate ….. if I were a degenerate gambler.

  21. Re-post from yesterday’s thread, Glenn Greenwald, 32 minutes:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6upr1j6CNZ4

    I really like this one, especially where he talks about “online safety experts” and what a meaningless title, and concept that it is.

    BTW Greenwald got booted out of his own publication that he co-founded, The Intercept, because he refused to stay on the plantation.

  22. This guy, Samuel Bateman is involved in real estate and young girls…driving around in a Bentley and has wives as young as 9 years old. This guy has Jeff Epstein beat. Maybe he will end up like Jeff.

  25. Seeing a lot of crater in RRE and stonks. Just getting started. Recall the Trillion$ of central bank “stimulus” since the last central bank-induced financial debacle. 13 years since the bailouts of the GFC. That’s now being withdrawn. “Markets” = heroin addict in withdrawal. This is all assets and “markets.” No surprise here. The central banks giveth and the central banks taketh away. Highly compensated, but unelected and unaccountable. Heads on pikes comes to mind.

  26. How soon is Uncle Warren’s bull run scheduled to happen? Is there still time for dips to buy?

    1. Yahoo Finance
      Wall Street’s 2023 outlook for stocks
      Sam Ro
      Sun, December 4, 2022 at 8:49 AM·8 min read
      This post was originally published on TKer.co

      It’s that time of year when Wall Street’s top strategists tell clients where they see the stock market heading in the year ahead.

      Typically, the average forecast for the group predicts the S&P 500 climbing by about 10%, which is in line with historical averages.

      This time around, the pros are unusually cautious with most expecting the S&P to end 2023 lower than where it is today.

      There’s hundreds of pages of research and analysis that come with these strategists’ forecast. The general themes: Most Wall Street firms expect the U.S. economy to go into recession some time in 2023. Many believe forecasts for 2023 earnings have more room to get cut, and some believe those downward revisions mean lots of volatility for stocks in the early part of 2023. At the same time, many also expect an unambiguous drop in inflation, which would give the Federal Reserve the clearance to ease up on its hawkish monetary policy stance. At least some strategists think if economic conditions deteriorate significantly, the Fed may even return to cutting interest rates.

      Putting it all together, strategists expect a volatile first half to be followed by an easier second half, which could see stocks climb modestly higher.

      Below is a roundup of 16 of these 2023 forecasts for the S&P 500, including highlights from the strategists’ commentary. The targets range from 3,675 to 4,500. The S&P closed on Friday at 4,071, which implies returns between -9.7% and +10.5%.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-streets-2023-outlook-for-stocks-164955543.html

    2. LIVE COVERAGE
      Stock Market Today: Dow Moves Lower, Oil Prices Retreat
      The Wall Street Journal’s full markets coverage.
      Dec 5, 2022 at 3:30 pm ET

      Today’s Developments

      Stocks moved lower Monday, with the Dow off more than 550 points. As we noted earlier today, Wall Street is really bearish on stocks right now.

      The Fed, which meets next week, is still in focus: On Friday, a stronger-than-expected jobs report cast doubt on how quickly the central bank will ease its pace of interest-rate hikes.

      In other themes: New ETFs have had a rough 2022. The company that operates the USD Coin stablecoin, is ending its attempt to go public through a SPAC. (Read more of our latest crypto coverage here.) And natural gas is falling.
      …
      https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-12-05-2022

        2. Yahoo Finance
          Why this Wall Street bear says it’s time to sell stocks again
          Brian Sozzi
          Mon, December 5, 2022 at 9:41 AM·2 min read
          In this article:

          One of the market’s biggest skeptics is going back to his old ways.

          Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson cautioned that the rally that has enveloped markets in recent weeks is long in the tooth and overdue for a breather.

          “As predicted, falling interest rates at the back end have led to modest, further gains for this bear market rally,” Wilson wrote in a new note on Monday. “However, with last week’s price action, the S&P 500 is now right into our original tactical target range of 4000-4150. While the index has modestly exceeded its 200-day moving average and the breadth continues to expand, the downtrend from the beginning of the year remains in place. This makes the risk-reward of playing for more upside quite poor at this point, and we are now sellers again.”
          …
          https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-bear-says-its-time-to-sell-stocks-again-174117910.html

          1. From the comments:

            17h ago

            The time to sell was when the FED first signaled that interest rate increases were coming, over a year ago. Those who were paying attention made their moves. For those who didn’t it is a bit late. DON’T FIGHT THE FED!

      1. The Indicator from Planet Money
        Reading the stock market tea leaves
        December 5, 2022 8:45 PM ET
        Darian Woods
        Mary Childs
        Nicky Ouellet
        Kate Concannon
        9-Minute Listen
        A woman is sillouetted against a screen showing the falling Hang Seng index at a trading house in Hong Kong on October 22, 2008. Hong Kong share prices closed 5.2 percent down, dragged by Citic Pacific after its earlier warning that it was facing a potentially huge foreign exchange loss, dealers said.
        AFP PHOTO/PHILIPPE LOPEZ
        Philippe Gomez/AFP via Getty Images

        The “head and shoulders.” The “Ichimoku cloud.” The “death cross.” Technical analysts see these patterns in stock price charts and use them to decide future trades. Economic literature has long held that technical analysis is a poor predictor of a stock or a bond’s performance, but plenty of traders and popular media outlets still use it daily.

        Today, we talk to one trader who has built a career on analyzing stock charts, as well as a skeptic whose fake chart pattern, the “vomiting camel,” has taken on a life of its own.
        …
        https://www.npr.org/2022/12/05/1140785284/reading-the-stock-market-tea-leaves

  27. The Financial Times
    Blackstone Group LP
    How the gates closed on Blackstone’s runaway real estate vehicle
    Redemptions from BREIT accelerated in July as Asian property markets plunged and interest rates rose
    Signage outside Blackstone’s headquarters in New York
    The real estate fund has grown to account for about 10% of Blackstone’s fee-paying assets under management, according to analysts
    Antoine Gara and Sujeet Indap in New York, Kaye Wiggins in London 9 hours ago

    In July, Blackstone chief executive Stephen Schwarzman recounted a surprise meeting with an investor in the firm’s $69bn-in-assets private real estate vehicle designed for wealthy individual investors.

    The person had approached Schwarzman to tell him the fund, called Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, or BREIT, was his largest position. “I love you people. This is so amazing. All of my friends are losing a fortune in the market and I’m still making money,” recounted Schwarzman of the meeting on a quarterly earnings call.

    In fact, investors were pulling money from BREIT at the time, alarming close watchers of Blackstone. Investors withdrew more than 2 per cent of its net assets that month, according to sources familiar with the matter and securities filings, exceeding a threshold at which Blackstone can limit investor withdrawals.

    Asian investors had been pulling cash from the fund during the spring and summer as property markets in the region plunged. Some carried high personal leverage and were hit with margin calls, said two people familiar with the matter. BREIT, the value of which has risen this year, could be sold at high prices to meet the cash calls.

    As the selling intensified and moved beyond Asia, Schwarzman and Blackstone’s president Jonathan Gray each added more than $100mn to their investments in BREIT this summer, said a source with knowledge of the matter. Blackstone declined to comment on the purchases.

    Blackstone chose to not place any limits on investors hoping to withdraw money from BREIT in July. Though it has always told its investors the product is only semi-liquid, such a move could have sparked fears among investors that they could not easily get their money out. But a growing tide of redemption requests forced BREIT to announce on Thursday it would finally raise “gates” — allowing the fund manager to limit the volume of assets redeemed — through the end of the year.

    The move has sent shockwaves inside Blackstone, tarnishing what has become the biggest engine of asset and fee growth inside the world’s largest alternative asset manager. On Thursday, Blackstone’s shares fell more than 7 per cent and a host of analysts downgraded their outlook on the company over fears that the decision could cause its growth to stall.

    “The BREIT outflow bear case is playing out,” said Michael Brown, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. “[We] expect it to remain an overhang on shares in the coming quarters.”
    …

    1. Take homes:

      1) REIT share prices lag the market in a downturn

      2) It may become difficult or impossible to get your money out when prices are falling.

      3) Don’t be overly eager about buying when it seems like the market is shifting, but REIT shares keep going up.

      4) Try not to catch yourself a falling knife.

    2. US navigating ‘housing bubble,’ Fed says. Will it pop or ‘deflate?’
      By Katie McKellar, Deseret News | Posted – Dec. 2, 2022 at 9:56 a.m.
      Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Nov. 2, in Washington.
      (Patrick Semansky, Associated Press)
      Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes

      WASHINGTON — He has said the U.S. housing market needed a “difficult correction” and a “reset” to bring better “balance” to a market that had enjoyed runaway price growth and demand during the pandemic frenzy — but this week Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell used a stronger word to describe the state of the nation’s housing market.

      “Bubble.”

      While answering audience questions at a Brookings Institution event Tuesday, Powell told the crowd the dramatic rise in home prices in 2020, 2021 and part of 2022 was a “housing bubble.”
      …
      https://www.ksl.com/article/50530425/us-navigating-housing-bubble-fed-says-will-it-pop-or-deflate

    3. Here’s how much US home prices will plunge in current market bubble
      By Thomas Barrabi
      December 2, 2022 2:29pm Updated

      US home prices will likely have to decline by as much as 20% over the course of a multi-year correction before the housing sector can get back on track with historical trends, a research firm warned this week.

      The most recent correction cycles that occurred in the US housing market, such as a bubble in the 1990s and the sector’s implosion in the mid-2000s, took several years to conclude, DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas said.
      …
      https://nypost.com/2022/12/02/heres-how-much-us-home-prices-will-plunge-in-market-current-bubble-expert/

    4. 4 in 10 consumers expect housing market will crash, survey finds
      Jeff Clabaugh
      December 5, 2022, 9:56 AM
      Listen now to WTOP News WTOP.com | Alexa | Google Home | WTOP App | 103.5 FM

      Economists and real estate industry leaders generally agree that the U.S. housing market has slowed and will continue to in 2023, but have tended to use words like “temper,” “modest” and “correction” when referring to declining sales and prices ahead.

      “Crash” is a word that has been almost universally avoided.

      Consumers may have gloomier expectations.
      …
      http://housingbubble.blog/?p=6919&replytocom=222094#respond

    1. ChinaFile
      What Sparked China’s Weekend of Anger?
      Experts discuss the roots of China’s protests.
      By ChinaFile Contributors
      Protesters hold up pieces of A4 paper as a symbol against censorship and China’s strict zero-COVID measures in Beijing on Nov. 27.
      Kevin Frayer/Getty Images
      December 1, 2022, 12:53 PM

      Over the weekend, large demonstrations broke out in cities across China. The protests followed news, spread rapidly across Chinese and international social media, that a fire in an apartment building in Xinjiang’s capital of Urumqi on Friday had turned deadly, claiming at least 10 lives (and potentially dozens more), possibly as a result of the region’s COVID-19 lockdowns. Throngs of residents took to the streets in anger, where the singing of “The Internationale” and China’s national anthem mingled with calls to end the zero-COVID policy. In Shanghai, where protesters gathered Saturday on the city’s Urumqi Road, chants expressed support for the fire’s victims as well as calls for the lifting of zero-COVID restrictions and even demands—extraordinary in a country that does not tolerate political dissent—that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its newly reappointed leader, Xi Jinping, “step down.” On Sunday, demonstrators appeared at multiple locations across Beijing, including Peking and Tsinghua universities, where some called for “universal rights” and “freedom of expression” while others held aloft blank sheets of paper, symbols of the many things they were forbidden to say.

      We asked ChinaFile contributors for initial thoughts on the protests’ origins and significance.—The ChinaFile Editors
      …
      https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/01/china-protests-urumqi-fire-xi-jinping-dissent/

  30. LILLEY UNLEASHED: Did NHL legend Carey Price just make a save for hunters and gun owners?
    Toronto Sun
    Dec 5, 2022
    Sun political columnist Brian Lilley explains how it took NHL legend Carey Price, a hockey player not known for being political to fully expose Bill C-21, Trudeau government’s attempt to ban many hunting guns.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REoBLqL_udA

    4:18.

    1. Good on you Carey Price.

      “In A Time Of Universal Deceit, Telling The Truth Becomes A Revolutionary Act ”

      George Orwell, 1984

    1. Parking garages either side of these climate borders should do a booming business. That’s if tarring and feathering don’t do the trick.

          1. IIRC, the Thames has speed limits, so maybe a slow boat, assuming that’s the direction you want to go.

  32. RE: Ongoing COVID Nonsense

    Just looking at 6th Grade Camp.

    All students must provide proof of a negative COVID-19 test before arrival at camp regardless of vaccination status, except in the following case:
    Student has tested positive for COVID-19 in the past 90 days (school must be able to verify)
    If a student is within Days 1-5 of a positive COVID-19 test or diagnosis, they must isolate at home.
    If a student is within Days 6-10 of a positive COVID-19 test or diagnosis, they may attend camp as a day student only
    if:
    They can provide proof of a negative COVID test taken on or after Day 5
    And their symptoms are improving
    And they are fever-free for at least 24 hours without the use of fever-reducing medications
    And they must wear a mask at all times both indoors and outdoors until Day 11, at which time they may participate fully, including spending the night.

    Student registration requires disclosure of vaccination status.

    And, consent for nasal swab COVID-19 test if symptoms.

    1. An orchestra that I play in requires that the string players all wear Covid masks to rehearsal. The wind players are exempt, since they have to blow air through their instruments to play them. The masks worn by string players are the show-and-tell variety, not N-95. The rehearsal room is cramped enough so that anyone who comes to rehearsal with Covid is likely to share it with any susceptible individuals in attendance.

      What purpose this protocol serves is a profound mystery to me.

        2. Actually, as much as I hate to blame attorneys, I suspect attorneys advising college administrators are to blame for the scientifically idiotic policy.

      2. What purpose this protocol serves is a profound mystery to me.

        It seems that one of the objectives of the PTB is to make everyone as miserable as possible.

  33. CELEBRITY
    Mark Wahlberg’s Beverly Hills Megamansion Returns to the Market for $79.5 Million
    That’s an $8 million price cut for the more than 6-acre California estate
    By V.L. HENDRICKSON
    Originally Published On December 1, 2022
    Mansion Global

    Mark Wahlberg has slashed the price of his more than 30,000-square-foot Beverly Hills, California, megamansion to $79.5 million, an $8 million discount.

    First listed in April for $87.5 million, the residence sits on 6.2 acres in North Beverly Park, “the most exclusive gated community on the West Coast,” according to the listing with Carl Gambino of Compass and Kurt Rappaport of Westside Estate Agency, Inc. 

    “Essentially this is your own private country club,” the listing said. After being taken off the market last month, it was relisted at its new price on Tuesday. Mr. Cambino and Mr. Rappaport did not immediately return a request for comment. 

    Mr. Wahlberg, 51, and his wife, Rhea Durham, 44, bought the property in 2009, the year they were married, for about $8.25 million, according to records with PropertyShark. Architect Richard Landry—known as the “King of the Megamansion”—then designed the colossal abode where the couple lives with their four children.
    …
    https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/mark-wahlbergs-beverly-hills-megamansion-returns-to-the-market-for-79-5-million-01669923550

    1. “Mr. Wahlberg, 51, and his wife, Rhea Durham, 44, bought the property in 2009, the year they were married, for about $8.25 million, according to records with PropertyShark. Architect Richard Landry—known as the “King of the Megamansion”—then designed the colossal abode where the couple lives with their four children.”

      I guess “Mark” is reserved for friends?

      “The 12-bedroom and 20-bathroom home features a double-height foyer with a wrought-iron imperial staircase, formal living and dining rooms, an eat-in kitchen with two islands, a light-filled breakfast nook and a family room, listing photos show. Design elements include arched door frames, fireplaces, statement lighting and French doors throughout.”

      While I love the location and the parcel itself I just can’t wrap my head around the size that place. He could have created a scholarship fund for gifted students at UCLA or something similar, and he’d be remembered for something meaningful.

    2. bought the property in 2009, the year they were married, for about $8.25 million

      Even if he spen $1000/sq foot building it, his total cost was under $40M. Sounds like he’s getting mighty greedy.

      So why sell? Are the Wahlbergs fleeing dystopian Clownifornia? Maybe he’s worried that Gavin is going to tax the daylights out of him to pay for his “reparations” boondoggle?

  34. Barron’s
    Treasuries
    The Bond Market’s Recession Signal Is the Loudest in 40-Plus Years
    By Lawrence C. Strauss
    Nov. 29, 2022 11:36 am ET

    The U.S. Treasury yield curve recently inverted to a point that hadn’t occurred since the early 1980s, signaling that a recession is on the way.

    Yields on short-dated debt are usually lower than those on securities maturing over longer periods because investors demand higher yields to cover the risk of holding the debt for longer. But on Tuesday morning, the 2-year Treasury ‘s yield was 4.46%, compared with 3.70% for the 10-year note, a spread of about 76 basis points, or 0.76 percentage point.
    …
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/treasuries-yield-curve-inversion-recession-51669739707

  35. White House Dismisses Twitter Censoring Stories on Behalf of Joe Biden as ‘Old News’

    CHARLIE SPIERING
    5 Dec 2022

    The White House dismissed Monday new information released by Twitter regarding corporate decisions during the 2020 election to censor stories and posts about President Joe Biden’s son Hunter.

    “That is full of old news, if you think about it,” White House press secretary Karine Jean Pierre said during the daily briefing, when asked for the White House’s reaction to the new information unveiled by Twitter’s new CEO Elon Musk.

    Documents revealed internal communications about censoring the New York Post‘s news story right before the 2020 election about the information retrieved from Biden’s son Hunter’s abandoned laptop. The information also revealed that Twitter censored other posts on social media on behalf of the Democrat National Committee and the Biden campaign.

    But Jean-Pierre did not react to a question on Biden’s views about social media companies censoring information for his and his family’s behalf.

    Instead, she argued that Musk and Twitter were trying to use the information as a “distraction.”

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/05/white-house-dismisses-twitter-censoring-stories-behalf-joe-biden-old-news/

    1. “That is full of old news, if you think about it,”

      Just think of it as “old bones” Karine. Some therapy is needed.

  36. Real liars are saying on teevee that San Diego home prices will continue rising in 2023.

    Never mind that they are already falling in 2022.

    1. Local News
      Realtor.com releases 2023 housing market predictions
      A new report suggests if you’re looking to buy or sell a home in 2023, the market will be just as challenging, if not more, than it was this year.
      Author: Shannon Handy
      Published: 5:23 PM PST December 5, 2022
      Updated: 5:53 PM PST December 5, 2022

      SAN DIEGO — A new report from Realtor.com suggests if you’re looking to buy or sell a home in 2023, the market will be just as challenging, if not more than it was this year.

      “It’s gonna be a tough market,” said realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale.

      The site releases projections for the next 12 months every year around this time.

      Regarding mortgage rates, they foresee them going up before dropping slightly toward the end of the year.

      According to the real estate site Mortgage News Daily, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.33 percent.

      “We expect mortgage rates to rise above seven percent as they were in October. We don’t think the Fed is done tightening,” said Hale.

      Because of that, Hale says home price growth will slow down.

      In other words, home prices will increase, but not as drastically as we’ve seen over the past couple of years.

      “If you compare the 2023 average sales price against the 2022 median sales price for the year, we’re going to see home prices up about 3.6 percent in the San Diego market, much slower than what we’ve seen recently, but maybe perhaps a surprise to some folks that we don’t expect the average price to go down. That doesn’t mean we might not see some year-to-year declines in the second half of the year, but on a whole, prices are still going to be higher in 2023 compared to 2022,” said Hale.
      …
      https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/local/realtorcom-releases-housing-market-predictions/509-f0d553ff-12bf-452d-99ed-f6a7fbfa4ece

    2. Business
      ‘Loss of consumer confidence’: San Diego home price drops fourth-most in nation
      Residential homes in the Clairemont Community near Diane Avenue and Lehrer Drive.
      San Diego home prices have been dropping as mortgage rates increase. Pictured: Residential homes in the Clairemont Community near Diane Avenue and Lehrer Drive.
      (Nelvin C. Cepeda/The San Diego Union-Tribune)
      The S&P Case-Shiller Indices revealed San Diego has seen its home price drop among the fastest of metros across the nation
      By Phillip Molnar
      Nov. 29, 2022 2:11 PM PT

      San Diego metro is seeing its home price drop among the fastest in the nation.

      Home prices were down 2.1 percent from August to September, said the S&P Case-Shiller Indices released Tuesday. That was tied with Dallas for the fourth-biggest drop in the nation, behind Phoenix, down 2.2 percent, Las Vegas, down 2.4 percent, and San Francisco and Seattle, both down 2.9 percent.
      …
      https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/story/2022-11-29/san-diego-home-price

      1. “Home prices were down 2.1 percent from August to September, said the S&P Case-Shiller Indices released Tuesday.”

        A one month price decline of 2.1 percent occurs at an annualized rate of decline of 1-(1-2.1/100)^12 = 22.5 percent.

        We’ll see if the San Diego used home sellers can turn that around in 2023!

        1. “A one month price decline of 2.1 percent occurs at an annualized rate of decline of 1-(1-2.1/100)^12 = 22.5 percent.”

          Other than that how’s the weather today?

          1. “…the weather today?”

            Hmm, sandy-eggo is 64-degrees. Nice!

            Outside my door we have 25-degrees (14-degrees wind chill) with freezing fog, a thin layer of black ice and a fatality wreck this morning.

          3. It rained a bit this morning . . . enough for 8 slugs in my garden to venture out and drown themselves in wells of beer I set out.

Comments are closed.