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What Worked In The Past Won’t Work Now

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “‘I’ve felt a massive drop,’ says Sabrina Must, who in the height of the pandemic could command more than $1,000 per night on a holiday weekend in Encinitas, California but now has her rates starting around $275 on Airbnb. ‘I am so beyond stressed by it.'”

“Sellers are increasingly taking their homes off the market, likely unsatisfied that they’re not getting the prices they want amid a real-estate slowdown. Almost 2% of homes were delisted on average in South Florida each week in the three-month period ending Nov. 27, according to RedFin. ‘I think that there is going to be a lot of homes that hit the market in January or the first few weeks of February once we get through Christmas, and New Year’s,’ said Alex Platt with the Platt Group at Compass in Boca Raton.”

“New numbers show that home prices may finally be leveling off across Western Washington. Kelly Nutt, a Realtor with John L. Scott Bothell told KIRO 7 it was unrealistic for anyone to think that home prices would keep spiking. In fact, he said the rate of appreciation these past few years was absolutely unprecedented. ‘I wasn’t getting an income raise of 40% every year. People can’t afford it. Affordability is a huge factor in all of this,’ he said.”

“Nashville home buyers and sellers have at least one thing in common – they are both dealing with the emotions of facing a volatile market. Brad Copeland, President of Greater Nashville REALTORS said sellers are also dealing with the emotional toll of a slowing market because houses are not selling as fast as they were earlier this year. ‘We have sellers who were pricing – I’ll call it ‘speculatively.’ For instance, a seller could put a house on the market for $400k, but if they had waited two weeks then it would sell for $440k because the demand was so high, Copeland said. ‘That’s an unsustainable market. That’s really where we’ve been over this last year,’ he said. ‘Sellers got used to that market… and were anticipating the continual rise in those prices.'”

“Sean Black, CEO of Knock said the market reached a ‘crest’ in June when prices were up dramatically. ‘At the time it may have been appropriate leading up to then, but that market just completely changed overnight. And those homes didn’t price appropriately,’ he added sellers didn’t pivot quick enough to adjust prices, and the result has been a softening of the market.”

“Four days before Thanksgiving, senior leaders at Reverse Mortgage Funding broke the bad news to staffers: mortgage originations would cease immediately as executives worked toward a solution to the company’s very serious financial problems. The call ended so abruptly that staffers at the New Jersey-based reverse lender thought a technical issue caused the call to drop. ‘Given that they’re [RMF] declaring bankruptcy, at the end of the day, it’s not just that they lost warehouse lines,’ said Brett Ludden, managing director of mergers and acquisitions advisory firm Sterling Point Advisors. ‘They could have theoretically gone and found another warehouse line or cut volume and kept running [particularly with Starwood Capital as an owner and backer]. If they declared bankruptcy, that means that they either did not have any liquidity or their net worth was below zero.'”

“A recession is imminent but central banks won’t be able to support markets this time by loosening policy, according to the money manager. ‘Recession is foretold as central banks race to try to tame inflation. It’s the opposite of past recessions,’ BlackRock strategists said. ‘Central bankers won’t ride to the rescue when growth slows in this new regime, contrary to what investors have come to expect. Equity valuations don’t yet reflect the damage ahead.'”

“‘What worked in the past won’t work now,’ the strategists said. ‘The old playbook of simply ‘buying the dip’ doesn’t apply in this regime of sharper trade-offs and greater macro volatility. We don’t see a return to conditions that will sustain a joint bull market in stocks and bonds of the kind we experienced in the prior decade.'”

“Yellowknifer asked real estate agencies about the housing market in Yellowknife. Kim Knutson: ‘In general, the lower-end market is holding steady and we are finding the higher-priced homes are taking longer to sell and prices are coming down a bit. Currently there are five properties over $1 million on the market. It’s hard for vendors sometimes to realize we are not in the same crazy market as this past year and often they want the more aggressive prices. We are seeing a lot more price reductions.'”

“Toronto home prices dropped in November, the eighth consecutive monthly decline since the Bank of Canada started reducing the supply of cheap credit. Some regions with the greatest price increases over 2020 and 2021 continued to record price declines last month. In Durham, east of Toronto, the home price index is off by 23 per cent this year. In Peel, northwest of the city, the index is down 21 per cent.”

“Swedish property prices deepened their decline in November, offering no respite for home owners as higher interest rates weaken a market that’s already among the worst performing among developed nations this year. House prices in the Nordic nation have now lost 13% and apartment prices 12%, compared with peaks earlier this year. In neighboring Norway, the financial watchdog warned banks their losses could balloon under a worst case scenario where home prices may slump as much as 29% by 2025 from last year’s level, while the commercial property valuations risk plunging 47%.”

“‘During the pandemic years, prices increased sharply, and for apartments, the declines in 2022 have meant prices have approached levels seen before the pandemic,’ said Per-Arne Sandegren, an analyst at Svensk Maklarstatistik.”

“Prices of Hong Kong‘s residential properties plunged to a near five-year low as rising interest rates and a mass exodus of expat workers drove down prices. And industry insiders warn that the worst is yet to come. In YOHO town, a 393-square feet apartment that’s currently listed for 5.98 million Hong Kong dollars — that’s about HK$15,216 per square foot, and a 20% drop in price compared to the previous month. ‘While there is pressure from the deteriorating fertility rate and the rapidly aging population, the collapse of immigration and the heated emigration wave have added fuel to the fire,’ Natixis said.”

“Brookfield Asset Management is on the lookout to acquire premium commercial property from distressed Chinese developers, aiming to increase its footprint in the world’s second-largest economy where fresh capital is needed to bail out the troubled real estate sector. ‘We are seeing opportunities and are pursuing lucrative deals,’ said Yang Yiwen, senior vice-president of real estate portfolio management. ‘There will be drawn-out negotiations because of pricing gaps to close.’ Some cash-strapped Chinese developers, under pressure to repay debts and cut leverage ratio, are putting up for sale office buildings and shopping malls – which are viewed as rare assets in the country’s most developed cities like Shanghai.”

“While Brookfield did not reveal the transaction value, Guangdong-based media outlet Time News reported that the company spent 1.3 billion yuan (US$185 million) on the three towers, citing unidentified officials from KWG. It translated into a 60 per cent discount to the price the two developers paid for the assets in 2010.”

“In a Real Estate Institute of New Zealand survey by independent economist Tony Alexander of 555 agents across the country, conducted in November, a net 39 percent reported seeing fewer people at auctions and 48 percent said they weren’t seeing as many people at open homes. In terms of fear of missing out, or ‘FOMO’, it was virtually non-existent. Just 4 percent of real estate agents reported seeing FOMO among buyers in November – a marked drop from the net 90 percent highs of this time last year.”

“Aligning with figures showing nationwide house prices on the downward slide, a record 74 percent of real estate agents reported declining prices in their area. Alexander’s report said this was up significantly from 45 percent in October. ‘The Reserve Bank’s cash rate increase and words of warning about recession have had an immediate impact on the real estate market,’ the report noted. ‘Buyers remain concerned about high-interest rates, access to finance and prices falling after buying.'”

“The official cash rate has gone up eight times this year, but it hasn’t increased Felix and Georgia Daniels’s mortgage repayments at all. Like many borrowers, they locked in an ultra-low fixed rate last year on their $600,000 mortgage. However, they are worried about how they will afford an extra $1,000 a month, or more, on their repayments when their fixed-rate term comes to an end next year. RateCity’s Sally Tindall warns some people may have to pay lenders mortgage insurance (LMI) in order to refinance, if the equity in their property is below 20 per cent.”

“Even those who had a 20 per cent deposit to start with may find their equity is below 20 per cent if their home’s value has fallen since they bought it. Some people may even become ‘mortgage prisoners,’ where they can’t move between lenders. ‘If you find yourself in mortgage prison, unable to refinance, roll up your sleeves, put on your best poker face and negotiate with your current bank,’ says Tindall.”

“Personal finance lecturer Di Johnson recommends to start living like your rates have already increased. If you do the calculations and think you won’t be able to afford the higher repayments, Johnson says it could be worth speaking to your lender’s financial hardship team. The banks consistently advise doing this as early as possible, before you find yourself in severe financial stress. They can help by waiving fees, pausing repayments or consolidating your debt. You could also contact a financial counsellor from the National Debt Helpline.”

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This Post Has 170 Comments

  1. ‘What worked in the past won’t work now…The old playbook of simply ‘buying the dip’ doesn’t apply’

    It is different this time.

    ‘We don’t see a return to conditions that will sustain a joint bull market in stocks and bonds of the kind we experienced in the prior decade’

    That was an odd thing. I’m tempted to say ‘unsustainable.’ Oh well never matter, it’s probably going to be fine.

  2. ‘the company spent 1.3 billion yuan (US$185 million) on the three towers, citing unidentified officials from KWG. It translated into a 60 per cent discount to the price the two developers paid for the assets in 2010’

    Not 60% off the spring cray cray, that’s off 2010. Nearly 13 bubble years gone poof.

    But half off is unrealistic!

  3. ‘In general, the lower-end market is holding steady and we are finding the higher-priced homes are taking longer to sell and prices are coming down a bit. Currently there are five properties over $1 million on the market. It’s hard for vendors sometimes to realize we are not in the same crazy market as this past year and often they want the more aggressive prices. We are seeing a lot more price reductions.’

    Yellowknife is the coldest capital in Canada, but that’s not the only weather title the N.W.T. capital holds. In a weather survey of 100 Canadian cities, the N.W.T. capital topped 13 of 75 categories.

  4. Bari Weiss, founder and editor of The Free Press, released the second volume of the so-called “Twitter files” on Thursday, revealing the social media platform’s “secret blacklists.”

    Weiss has been working with Twitter’s new owner Elon Musk and independent journalist Matt Taibbi to disclose internal Twitter information regarding censorship.

    Twitter’s censorship methods, according to Weiss, included placing specific users on a “Trends Blacklist” or a “Search Blacklist.”

    The popular Libs of TikTok account, as well as Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor of medicine at Stanford University School of Medicine, are among the users who were secretly added to the “Trends Blacklist” by the company.

    Bhattacharya was put on the list because he stated that children would be harmed by COVID-19 lockdowns. This action stopped his tweets from trending, Weiss said.

    Conservative talk-show presenter Dan Bongino was also put on a so-called “Search Blacklist,” Weiss disclosed.

    Weiss also noted that conservative activist Charlie Kirk, founder of Turning Point USA, was put on a “Do Not Amplify” list.

    The second installment comes just a week after Taibbi published, with Musk’s endorsement, details about the social media platform’s decision to suppress and censor the New York Post’s report on the contents of Hunter Biden’s laptop in October 2020.

    “A new #TwitterFiles investigation reveals that teams of Twitter employees build blacklists, prevent disfavored tweets from trending, and actively limit the visibility of entire accounts or even trending topics—all in secret, without informing users,” Weiss said on Twitter. 

    “Twitter once had a mission ‘to give everyone the power to create and share ideas and information instantly, without barriers.’ Along the way, barriers nevertheless were erected,” she added.

    Rank-and-file employees and executives at Twitter referred to so-called “shadow banning” as “visibility filtering” or “VF,” according to Weiss, who said multiple “high-level” sources confirmed this at Twitter.

    Weiss’ report, published on Twitter, confirmed that the social media company deployed its so-called visibility filtering to make it hard for users to search for specific individuals—in other words, to blacklist their accounts.

    The visibility filtering tool also limited the scope of a specific tweet’s discoverability, prevented certain users’ tweets from ever appearing on the “trending” section, and blocked them from appearing in hashtag searches, according to Weiss.

    “All without users’ knowledge,” she wrote.

    One senior Twitter employee told Weiss to think about visibility filtering as a way for the company to “suppress what people see to different levels. It’s a very powerful tool.”

    Twitter shadow bans users “quite a bit,” one Twitter engineer reportedly told Weiss.

    “We control visibility quite a bit. And we control the amplification of your content quite a bit. And normal people do not know how much we do,” the Twitter engineer reportedly said.

    Weiss said that this was confirmed by two additional Twitter employees.

    Twitter had a “secret group” who were above and beyond the everyday content moderators from the Strategic Response Team-Global Escalation Team (SRT-GET) that blacklisted users, according to Weiss.

    The secret group was known as the “SIP-PES,” which stands for “Site Integrity Policy, Policy Escalation Support.”

    The committee reportedly consisted of Vijaya Gadde, Twitter’s former head of legal policy and trust; Yoel Roth, Twitter’s former head of global trust and safety; and former CEOs Jack Dorsey and Parag Agrawal; and others.

    While the SRT-GET “handled up to 200 ‘cases’ a day” following the company’s policy on paper, the SIP-PES group existed at a level “beyond official ticketing, beyond the rank-and-file moderators,” Weiss reported.

    “This is where the biggest, most politically sensitive decisions got made. ‘Think high follower account, controversial,’ another Twitter employee told us. For these ‘there would be no ticket or anything,’” Weiss added.

    Weiss noted in her report the former Twitter executives had previously asserted in 2018 that the company did not target accounts with shadow bans based on their political views.

    “Twitter denied that it does such things,” Weiss wrote, citing Vijaya Gadde, Twitter’s former head of legal policy and trust, as well as Kayvon Beykpour, Twitter’s former head of product.

    “We don’t ‘shadow ban,’” Beykpour wrote on Twitter on July 26, 2018.

    Gadde used Twitter’s “Quote Tweet” function to add to Beykpour’s assertion.

    “Favoring one specific ideology or belief goes against everything we stand for,” she wrote.

    In a joint blog post, Gadde and Beykpour wrote: “We do not shadow ban. You are always able to see the tweets from accounts you follow (although you may have to do more work to find them, like go directly to their profile). And we certainly don’t shadow ban based on political viewpoints or ideology.”

    The SIP-PES group was tied to the decision to ban the popular Libs of TikTok account, which had been placed on the “Trend Blacklist” and was designated as “Do Not Take Action on User Without Consulting With SIP-PES,” according to Weiss.

    The Libs of TikTok account, which was still blacklisted as of Dec. 7, was created by Chaya Raichik in November 2020 and grew to have 1.4 million followers.

    Raichik’s account was suspended by Twitter seven times in 2022 alone and blocked from posting for as long as one week, Weiss reported.

    Twitter repeatedly informed Raichik that she had been suspended for violating Twitter’s policy against “hateful conduct,” but an internal SIP-PES memo from October 2022 revealed that the secret group noted that her account had “not directly engaged in behavior violative of the Hateful Conduct policy.”

    Weiss reported that the committee internally justified Raichik’s suspension by claiming her account encouraged online harassment of “hospitals and medical providers” by insinuating “that gender-affirming healthcare is equivalent to child abuse or grooming.”

    “Compare this to what happened when Raichik herself was doxxed on November 21, 2022. A photo of her home with her address was posted in a tweet that has garnered more than 10,000 likes,” Weiss wrote.

    “When Raichik told Twitter that her address had been disseminated, she says Twitter Support responded with this message: ‘We reviewed the reported content, and didn’t find it to be in violation of the Twitter rules.’ No action was taken. The doxxing tweet is still up,” Weiss added.

    Following Weiss’ report, Raichik noted that a screenshot shared by Weiss revealed her Libs of TikTok account was still blacklisted as of Dec. 7. She raised the issue with Musk, who replied that he’s “looking into it.”

    The Epoch Times has contacted Raichik for further comment.

    Weiss noted that there is “more to come on this story” that would be published on her website for The Free Press. Weiss said that part of her agreement with Musk to get access to Twitter’s files was that the material would first be published on Twitter. 

    “We’re just getting started on our reporting. Documents cannot tell the whole story here,” she said.

    A third report on the so-called “Twitter files” will be published by Taibbi, Weiss said.

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/elon-musk-releases-twitter-files-ii-exposing-secret-blacklists_4913258.html

    1. Twitter repeatedly informed Raichik that she had been suspended for violating Twitter’s policy against “hateful conduct,” but an internal SIP-PES memo from October 2022 revealed that the secret group noted that her account had “not directly engaged in behavior violative of the Hateful Conduct policy.”

      My understanding is this site simply posted full videos that were already on the intertubes.

    2. The 2020 election was stolen.

      Joe Biden is not, and will never be, the legitimately elected president of the United States, because the 2020 election was stolen.

    3. Imagine what kind of suppression is happening at goog, fb, ms, apple, etc.

      I bet it’s much more than twatter. Twatter is a small player.

      1. Imagine getting all of your information from globalist platforms with globalist gatekeepers who only tolerate globalist narratives.

        The 2020 election was stolen, and we will NEVER stop discussing it here.

        The 2020 election was stolen.

          1. I like falling housing prices…. and exposing the housing crime syndicate and the criminals who run it….. nearly as much as I like discussing communist infiltrated deep state government that divides the US with bullshit like race and ‘gender’, rigs elections, rigs markets, etc.

            These are treasonous liars. You don’t like exposing and mocking treasonous liars?

          2. The HBB has been a bastion of free thinkers since well before you showed up. If you have a problem with that, may I suggest HuffPo?

          3. I started coming to this blog nearly 20 years ago when it was about housing trends and data to support it. Clearly it’s become more political in nature, to which I have no interest. Thank you for making that clear for myself and others so we can be directed elsewhere. As far as where to go to get my thinking influenced, I have one source –
            2 Timothy 3:16,17

          4. “Clearly it’s become more political in nature, to which I have no interest. ”

            Politics decides everything these days so it’s bound to happen. A huge chunk of economy is government spending, and if add Fed’s shenanigans, it’s probably 100% of the US economy influenced by politics.

          5. After thinking about my initial comment I have to apologize. It was snarky and a bit condescending. Everyone has a right to an opinion and a place to express it. But I am looking for a site like this that is just about housing without politics. If anyone has a suggestion please post a link.

          6. But I am looking for a site like this that is just about housing without politics.

            You won’t find a better place to discuss housing. Use the Joshua Tree extension to block those whose contributions you don’t care for.

          7. “Use the Joshua Tree extension to block those whose contributions you don’t care for.”

            Or just learn to accept the fact that others don’t agree 100% with your own world view.

    5. Releasing the Twitter Files on Twitter itself exposed a major weakness* in Twitter: the utter inability to post ANY kind of long-form content. At some point Elon will have to post ALL of these damning takedown records and shadowban records in full, as thousands of pages of PDF if nothing else. How to do that, I don’t know; maybe Twitter has a traditional website that isn’t limited to the online diary format.

      There’s not much to do about Parag and Ve-jay-jay Gadde’s selective shadow-banning. They’re a private company, etc. etc. The more important Twitter files are files in which the gov itself requested the takedown of free speech.

      —————
      *It reminded me a lot of Elon’s rollout of the Cybertruck, when a Tesla employee — oops — shattered two of the windows.

  5. ‘On a personal note Brittany is more than an athlete more than she is an important role model and inspiration to millions of Americans, particularly the LGBTQI+ Americans and women of color,’ she said. ‘She should never have been detained by Russia. And we are – I am – deeply proud of the work that the President has done, this administration has done, to get her home,’ she said.

    Then this is a day of independence for all Black Lesbians and their descendants!

    Yes, let the joyous news be spread. Biden got Brittney for the Merchant of Death!

    Putin gave us no other option, White House insists as it stands by decision to bring ‘role model’ Griner home, leave Whelan in jail – and dodges questions on ‘why Russia got better deal’, and whether ‘Merchant of Death’ is a threat to the US

    By GEOFF EARLE, DEPUTY U.S. POLITICAL EDITOR FOR DAILYMAIL.COM

    PUBLISHED: 15:30 EST, 8 December 2022

    White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre faced questions about whether the swap that secured her release was a good deal, and whether the release of ‘merchant of death’ Viktor Bout posed a security risk.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11518261/White-House-defends-decision-bring-Griner-home-leaving-Whelan-jail.html

    1. If one checks enough boxes, one gets special treatment. Straight white male marines check exactly zero boxes according to those in charge.
      Thanks Creepy Joe.

    3. ‘Merchant of Death’ Viktor Bout now part of a deal himself
      https://news.yahoo.com/merchant-death-arms-dealer-now-150852248.html

      Bout had not been scheduled to be released until 2029. He was held in a medium-security facility in Marion, Illinois.

      “He got a hard deal,” said Scheindlin, the retired judge, noting the U.S. sting operatives “put words in his mouth” so he’d say he was aware Americans could die from weapons he sold in order to require a terrorism enhancement that would force a long prison sentence, if not a life term.

      Scheindlin gave Bout the mandatory minimum 25-year sentence but said she did so only because it was required.

      At the time, his defense lawyer claimed the U.S. targeted Bout vindictively because it was embarrassed that his companies helped deliver goods to American military contractors involved in the war in Iraq.

      The deliveries occurred despite United Nations sanctions imposed against Bout since 2001 because of his reputation as a notorious illegal arms dealer.

      The U.S. is also capable of premeditated convictions.

  6. American Greatness — Yes, the 2020 Election Was Stolen (12/5/2022):

    “The Right must never concede the Big Lie that this nation’s oppressors rule legitimately, nor should we draw conclusions about how to move forward from this false premise.

    For two years, the constant shouting of childish epithets at anyone who would dare question Joe Biden’s legitimacy has suppressed a necessary reckoning with an election that was, in every sense, a complete aberration. It’s true Donald Trump and many of his supporters did themselves no favors by embracing some of the more outlandish theories about what happened. But the story we have been told again and again—that the 2020 election was not only fair, but some miracle of democracy—is propaganda, pure and simple.

    Despite the media’s heavy-handed narrative, we do not and never will really know what happened in the early morning hours of November 4, 2020, and those chaotic days that preceded Biden’s media coronation. It is disingenuous to dismiss the role of fraud in such an unprecedented scenario: an election with historic turnout that, thanks to the widespread adoption of an unconventional voting method prone to cheating, was not decided until an unusually dilated, shadowy tabulating process had run its course in a handful of heavily partisan jurisdictions.

    Anyone who expects them to care now that they have been caught is a fool. Still, the Right must not simply forget it and move on. Why? Because the Left’s Big Lie about the 2020 election legitimizes a lawless, counterfeit system. The myth that Biden triumphed against fascists who nearly overthrew our system of government (a classical communist theme, as it happens) has enabled Biden to rule like a tyrant in the name of Our Democracy™. Speaking in the people’s name, he has likened Trump and his supporters to a fifth column and weaponized the state against them.

    If the system is not unrigged, if the 2020 election’s legitimacy is not repudiated, then we can kiss any chance of free and fair elections goodbye. Every election going forward will be just like 2020 and 2022: Election Night will be formally replaced with Election Month and lectures from Democrats that “this is how things are supposed to be.”

    https://amgreatness.com/2022/12/05/yes-the-2020-election-was-stolen/

    The 2020 election was stolen.

    1. It won’t affect the majority. Since Walker (R) conceded to Warnock (D) in the Georgia runoff, the Senate is 51-49 Democrat. Sinema could be independent and “caucus” with the Democrats, keeping it 51-49. Even if she caucused with the Republicans, it would still be 50-50 with Harris as tiebreaker.

      Please note that she waited until AFTER the Dems won in Georgia to make her move, now knowing that it would be largely symbolic. If Walker had won, I don’t think she would have done it.

      1. “If Walker had won, I don’t think she would have done it.”

        This is ‘courage’ in today’s Amerikka.

        1. One thing you have to hand to the Globalists, they are patient. They’ve been working on this for decades. Once they disarm Americans, it will be over.

  10. “‘I’ve felt a massive drop,’ says Sabrina Must, who in the height of the pandemic could command more than $1,000 per night on a holiday weekend in Encinitas, California but now has her rates starting around $275 on Airbnb. ‘I am so beyond stressed by it.’”

    Die, speculator scum.

    1. “Sabrina Must, who in the height of the pandemic could command more than $1,000 per night on a holiday weekend in Encinitas, California…”

      It took me a couple seconds to figure out that they were talking about AIR BNB.

      1. “Ms. Must, who doubles as a real-estate investor and a content creator and consultant”

        Maybe, maybe not.

    2. $1000 a night for an AIrBnB in Encinitas? I thought the whole idea behind AitBnB was that it costs less than a hotel room.

      1. When it started it was all about being cheaper than a hotel room and it was usually just people renting out their vacation homes during the times when they were not there. It certainly has changed.

        1. I’m still confused. Why would I pay a LOT more to stay in an AirBnB?

          I did it once. I rented a guest cabana that was walking distance from La Jolla Shores for $90/night. If It had cost more than a real hotel, I would have stayed at a real hotel.

      2. A quick internet search for me showed I could stay in a nice looking luxury hotel right off the beach in the San Diego area for around $400 per night. And I won’t have to worry about hidden cameras in the bedroom.

  11. ‘We are seeing opportunities and are pursuing lucrative deals,’ said Yang Yiwen, senior vice-president of real estate portfolio management.

    Yer catching falling knives, Yang.

    1. They are more and more brazen with each day. And they know most parents can’t send their kids to private schools or homeschool. They believe that they can’t be stopped.

      This is simply horrifying. What’s next? Will they rip the children’s hearts out and offer them to Molech?

      1. Never underestimate the depravity of these globalists.

        And because housing, your property taxes are paying to promote this in the public schools.

      3. “And they know most parents can’t send their kids to private schools or homeschool.”

        Isn’t Highland Park, Illinois an upscale suburb?

  15. A reader sent these in:

    It’ll come back roaring brother

    https://twitter.com/isaiahthetrader/status/1600998318812721153

    We gonna get a CPI report that shows a complete collapse of inflation. Fed is going to celebrate and say the fight is over. Inflation is gonna come roaring back and the Fed is going to f*ck themselves.

    https://twitter.com/eliant_capital/status/1600995754428227584

    I’m down $11 million on $TSLA since last year and I’m more bullish on Tesla than ever. I’m seriously considering selling my house to buy more shares. Like wtf. Tesla will continue growing revenue 50% annually (as it has since 2014), and profits will grow even faster than that.

    https://twitter.com/jasondebolt/status/1600924312952745984

    This is kinda incredible. The forecasts for home prices in 2023 are all over the map. @JBREC has -20% http://Realtor.com has +5.4%
    We don’t do forecasts but, man, it’s hard to see >0%. The data currently points to -5% or so. My gut is more pessimistic than that.

    https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen/status/1600929104705880064

    John Wake

    Agreed! ““Once you start the process of prices falling nationally, there is a self-fulfilling momentum to it because no one wants to catch a falling knife,” Swonk says. “We’re easily going to see large double-digit declines. I think 15% next year is v…””

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1600927296214310912

    Almost half of Airbnb’s $6 billion in earnings last year were through Dublin firm (via @thejournal_ie) This is why the politicians don’t want to fix the housing crisis.

    https://twitter.com/Dexxie57/status/1597371234790129664

    The 88,000 new irs agents should be auditing airbnb owners because everyone of them is cheating on their taxes

    https://twitter.com/anar_christ/status/1599931680298389505

    “If Airbnb & Robinhood had a baby” 😂😂😂 I’m sure the offspring that spawns from this imprudent union is going to thrive during an economic and housing recession…

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1600922046761877504

    I’m in Phoenix. Already >15% from what I’ve seen.

    https://twitter.com/urbnist/status/1600934391525449728

    RIP zestimates

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1600986783399178255

    I run a new car dealership and have over 33 years of experience, from mid November on it has been completely dead, as dead as it was in the financial crisis in 09, it shut off like a water faucet and nobody is selling anything, the #Fed has killed the economy.

    https://twitter.com/hamburglar747/status/1600988912297467906

    Elon Musk

    Macro conditions are difficult: energy in Europe, real estate in China & crazy Fed rates in USA

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1600945923898556417

    The Kobeissi Letter

    Blackstone Last Week: Limits investor withdrawals from real estate fund. BlackRock This Week: “Prepare for a recession unlike any other.” Institutional investors are beginning to accept that a recession is inevitable.

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1600962928379047936

    A STR arbitrager signed a lease a month ago and hasn’t paid the deposit or rent; she just told me she can’t afford the unit
    Do I: A) Ask her to honor the legally binding doc she signed or
    B) Allow her to walk and I eat the cost of holding the unit for her for the last month

    https://twitter.com/MichaelAlbaum/status/1600964983004614657

    Let the bailouts begin 🔥🔥🔥 Jerome Powell is going to need to turn that printer back on 😰

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1600896853599432704

    The most disheartening takeaway from this article: “The vast majority of respondents said that if they could afford to move out, they would”

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1600856237331345409

    A spate of withdrawals is testing the strength of funds geared at allowing wealthy individuals to finance longer-term, leveraged corporate loans.

    https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1600966130289364992

    Millennials have spent our entire adult lives existing in various stages of inflating and deflating housing bubbles

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1600865908494565376

    Here comes the narrative change on inflation which punishes poor people the most.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1600993062905204736

    National Mortgage News

    Leading lenders are conducting more rounds of staff reductions following immense struggles in the second and third quarters.

    https://twitter.com/NatMortgageNews/status/1601000648358625281

    Lance Lambert

    I saw a headline today about a survey of economists. Most said they thought a 2023 recession would be “brief” and “shallow.” That got me thinking? Did economists use brief” and “shallow” in ’08? According to the Google News archives: Yes, many did.

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1601033564916961280

    WALLMART IS PLANNING TO LAUNCH BUY NOW PAY LATER LOANS BY NEXT YEAR
    Subprime loans to buy wallmart

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1601003157295071232

    David Rosenberg

    Another blowout consumer credit report for Oct (+$27 bn). Year to date, credit card balances soared $130 bn, double all of 2021. The surge financed ~1/3rd of spending this year; throws cold water on the view that balance sheets are in fine shape and replete with “excess savings.”

    https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie/status/1600882837510668291

    Seven charts to explain, why the U.S. is heading into a #recession (which is unlikely to be “mild”). 🧵 Let’s start with the most problematic one: the yield curves. Many read these like the Bible, and they rarely have gotten it wrong. However, this time there’s a problem. 1/14

    https://twitter.com/mtmalinen/status/1600891693473079300

    This is a pretty normal seasonality announcement for Canfor and they are only implementing a temporary curtailment for 1-4 weeks. Just look back at all of Canfor’s Q4 annoucements, it happens like clockwork – example below of 2018s big curtailment.

    https://twitter.com/BartsQuandry/status/1600891404804575237

    Steve Saretsky

    Due to the significant decrease in demand for solid wood products and challenging economic conditions, we are temporarily curtailing production in Canada. – Canfor

    https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/1600889434232475649

    DISTRESSED LOANS

    https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1600828353661251585

    lol SF really mad about people sleeping in a commercial building but not mad about ppl sleeping on the sidewalk outside of the same building

    https://twitter.com/BsiflingTrades/status/1600658640503181315

    “We believe there are $1T to 1.5T of losses to come in the commercial real estate market, MBS, and private lending.” @BearTrapsReport
    The Blackstone Private Credit fund is chock a block full of bad marks on property valuations. No wonder they gated it.
    Tick tock. #btc

    https://twitter.com/FossGregfoss/status/1600842887956430848

    oof – investments change as well. 6 month treasury is more profitable than real estate, the rate of change.

    https://twitter.com/jimmyvs24/status/1600870058200551424

    Remember, you’re paying taxes so union employees can retire early.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1600929023441260544

    KPMG say national housing prices to collapse 20%+

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1600931244262404096

    Those handful of $100 price drops you’ve done on your home listed for sale tells me how scared you are to learn the true value of it.

    https://twitter.com/StudentRentPro/status/1600932666299232257

    Taylor Marr

    Housing Market Update: Supply Posts Record Increase As Homes Linger on the Market
    Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index ticked up this week as steadily declining rates lured some buyers back in. But many would-be buyers are waiting for lower rates and prices

    https://twitter.com/TaylorAMarr/status/1600935696080195584

    Economics is the only profession in which one can always be wrong at a critical juncture, and still remain employed.

    “IF there is a recession, it will be mild”.

    https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1600669910534864896

    The National Bank of Belgium (BNB) is set to record its first loss since World War II…
    By 2027 it will be forced to assume a “negative capital position”, i.e. its liabilities will exceed its assets…
    All of those 0% to negative interest rate bonds it owns are worthless. 🔥

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1600688171146100736

    China, local government workers threatening to commit suicide. They have not been paid salaries as some local governments are out of money after years of lockdowns. Many cities used to plug the budget deficits via land sales to prop developers, but this market has dried up.

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1600720641635729408

    Signs of a Great Depression … 🔥🔥🔥

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1600777203565748224

    Worst yield curve since the early 1980s … which was a massive recession. But back then we had low debt to GDP, below 40% whereas now it is 130%. Plus in the early 1980s we had an energy production boom coming to ease inflation.

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1600822503651385346

    CRE Loans Face Mounting Maturities in 2023

    https://twitter.com/danjmcnamara/status/1600583710847471630

    💙Rachael Maskell MP

    29 homes lost every DAY last year in England to the 2ndhome/holiday let sector. I caught up with @emptyhomes
    this week to discuss my Bill and thank for their support. Debate is tomorrow #HomesB4Holidays #FairBnB #StopTurningHomesIntoHolidayLets

    https://twitter.com/RachaelMaskell/status/1600836360474333185

    Lance Lambert

    Runway. It’s pretty clear the Fed thinks it has “runway” to hit housing hard. Tightened lending standards & high credit scores & low likelihood of pre-2021 buyers going underwater. These themes get brought up repeatedly by the Fed.

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1600872564535963649

    CarDealershipGuy

    Used car values declined 14.2% year over year in November. The THIRD consecutive month of YoY decreases. Craziest part? Auctions are still filled with tons of ‘no-sales’. In other words, sales are not clearing because buyers/sellers can’t agree on prices.

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1600870604793602049

    1. “The data currently points to -5% or so.”

      When sales are down 50% YOY and prices are already dropping at least 1% per month, I’d love to know what data they’re looking at.

      1. Rule of thumb in the REIConplex

        If data [source] is favorable, data sources are cited.

        If data [source] is unfavorable, please don’t ask embarrassing questions. Remember, we are all in this together.

    2. I run a new car dealership and have over 33 years of experience, from mid November on it has been completely dead

      We’ll see when the big rebates return. Definitely seeing inventory growth at the local dealers, but from I can see their lots are not full … yet.

      1. The trick to selling a customer a new car is being able to take their trade-in and roll-over its remaining balance into the new car loan, which can be difficult if their trade-in has too many miles, is a gas hog, etc., and if rates are rising the manufacturer’s risk increases dramatically unsettling share prices and their investors.

        1. This, people don’t buy a car, they buy a payment. They have no idea and/or don’t care what the car costs, they only care what their payment is.

    3. Tesla has done well because up until now, they’ve had no competition. Vw,benz,BMW have a much better car in ride and quality…not range and maybe not gadgets. I think kia is also making a great ev. I’ve been in two teslas, one in Vegas in the tunnel elon built and a neighbor has one. The interior is very cheap…like ford escort cheap.

  17. “The call ended so abruptly that staffers at the New Jersey-based reverse lender thought a technical issue caused the call to drop. ”

    This reminds me of WOW airlines, who ran out of funds and ceased operations so suddenly that travelers were stranded at their destination cities. They had to book tickets on other flights just to get home.

    2. climate reparations for 3rd world countries

      Wanna bet those “reparations” will come with strings attached? As in, your country needs to go full rainbow, with groomers in your schools, before you will get any reparations. Either you go full an@l or you don’t get a penny, capishe? Plus 10% for the big guy, of course.

      1. Aren’t third-world countries the ones having all the kids these days? Seems like that would cancel out most of the reparations.

  20. WALLMART IS PLANNING TO LAUNCH BUY NOW PAY LATER LOANS BY NEXT YEAR
    Subprime loans to buy wallmart
    —
    David Rosenberg

    Another blowout consumer credit report for Oct (+$27 bn). Year to date, credit card balances soared $130 bn, double all of 2021. The surge financed ~1/3rd of spending this year; throws cold water on the view that balance sheets are in fine shape and replete with “excess savings.”
    —
    https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/1598728304634187781?cxt=HHwWisCqoYa76a8sAAAA
    Jesse Felder
    @jessefelder
    ‘Savings are expected to keep falling as consumers spend their cash pile. JP Morgan sees excess savings depleted by mid-2023.’ https://thedailyshot.com/2022/12/02/consumer-spending-remains-robust-2/
    via @SoberLook
    10:18 AM · Dec 2, 2022
    —

    – So, consumers are continuing to dutifully spend into the holidays and year-end 2022 in spite of negative real wages due to 40 year high inflation. They’re able to do this via credit card debt + spending down any savings. There’s some pandemic stimmy $ leftover as savings, but that’s now being spend down, and will be exhausted by the middle of 2023, or sooner.
    – Takeaway: Ignoring the 10%, because they’re in good financial shape, the 90% consumer’s will “consume” through year-end 2022. The bill comes due in Jan., 2023. Credit cards will soon be maxed-out and whatever “excess” savings they have will be depleted probably by early 2023. Consumer spending is 70% of GDP. The 90% are a bigger share of this vs. the 10%.
    – So, due to the coming weak consumer spending, higher interest rates, stonk bear market, housing bear market, a 2023 recession is all but guaranteed. This is “The Everything Bubble,” aka “The Central Bank Bubble,” aka “The Mother of All Bubbles” bursting. This will be neither a “shallow” recession, nor a “soft” landing. Besides, the Fed is still fighting inflation (lagging indicator) and raising rates. They want “demand destruction.” The Fed is always driving by looking in the rear-view mirror. They will overshoot on the tightening, as per usual, making the recession worser.
    – Enjoyed the (Fed-induced) boom? Now enjoy the (Fed-induced) bust. It’s almost as if the Fed is part of “Team Great Reset,” Intentionally crashing the global economy.
    – You will eat bugs, own nothing, and like it! Our betters say so.

    1. WALLMART IS PLANNING TO LAUNCH BUY NOW PAY LATER LOANS

      I remember Sears doing this in the years leading up to their collapse.

      1. “…remember Sears doing this…”

        Sears played many years of ‘lets pretend’

        Sorta’ like the current overall economy.

        Would not want to be a CFO of any major retailer these days, its just got to be a miserable job, [creating all those fake spreadsheets, to make the BOD happy so they can write themselves big year end bonuses]

    2. After seeing the comment about the Airbnb in Encinitas dropping from $1000/night to a “mere” $275, my thought was “plenty of stupid money still to be flushed out.” Seeing similar anecdotes elsewhere. And as Blackrock understated it, “Equity valuations don’t yet reflect the damage ahead.” I still say we’re still in the pre-game show.

  22. – So much crater!
    – These quotes from the movie ‘Apocalypse Now’ seem appropriate. Maybe not necessarily full of “Christmas cheer,” but still apropos. I call ’em like I seem ’em.

    Col. Kilgore: “I love the smell of napalm in the morning. You know, one time we had a hill bombed, for 12 hours. When it was all over, I walked up. We didn’t find one of ’em, not one stinkin’ dink body. The smell, you know that gasoline smell, the whole hill. Smelled like … victory.”

    Capt. Willard: “Oh man… the bullsh-t piled up so fast in Vietnam [the U.S.], you needed wings to stay above it.”

    Capt. Willard: “Charging a man with murder [fraud] in this place was like handing out speeding tickets in the Indy 500.”

    Col. Kurtz: “The horror … the horror.”

  23. “…home prices may slump as much as 29% by 2025 from last year’s level, while the commercial property valuations risk plunging 47%.”

    It sounds like at least some of the “experts” are finally starting to come around and tell the truth.

  24. “On a personal note Brittany is more than an athlete more than she is an important role model and inspiration to millions of Americans, particularly the LGBTQI+ Americans and women of color”

    White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre

    Now all you LGBTQ’rs and women of color out there be sure to pack your hash oil for international travel so you’ll have it when you go through airport customs like your role model.

    1. Just a wonderin will she ever stand for the flag? Or is she so out of shape, or maybe arthritis from sleeping in cramped quarters, Or so demoralized she won’t be able to play for the big payday anymore?

    1. The Financial Times
      Markets Briefing Equities
      US futures fall as producer prices top forecasts
      Prices have risen 7.4% in past year and suggest Fed’s fight against inflation has a way to go
      A boat on Victoria Harbour in Hong Kong
      Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has risen more than a fifth in the past month
      George Steer 3 hours ago

      US futures fell on Friday, after producer prices rose more than expected in November, in another sign that inflation in the world’s biggest economy could prove stickier than investors hope.

      Contracts tracking Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 both sank 0.5 per cent following the release of data showing the US producer price index rose 0.3 per cent month on month in November, more than the 0.2 per cent forecast by economists.

      The move means producer prices have risen 7.4 per cent in the past year, 0.2 percentage points higher than forecast. Although the stronger than anticipated reading is not expected to deter the Federal Reserve from slowing the pace at which it raises rates when it meets next week, it does suggest the central bank’s fight against inflation is far from finished.
      …

      1. 7.4% producer price inflation suggests there is a lot of inflation in the production pipeline. And interest rates are below inflation, indicating that real rates are still negative. Back in the olden days, before Quantitative Easing, here used to be something called the inflation risk premium, where the risk free rate inc

      2. 7.4% producer price inflation suggests there is a lot of inflation in the production pipeline. And interest rates are below inflation, indicating that real rates are still negative. Back in the olden days, before the dawn of Quantitative Easing, there used to be something called the inflation risk premium, where the risk free rate included a return on investment plus an additional yield to compensate for inflation. Nowadays that no longer exists, which helps explain why investors are so eager to gamble on risk assets like stocks, falling knife real estate, and cleptocurrencies, even as their prices are CR8Ring.

  26. Not sure this is of interest anymore on here, but why are people getting variable rate loans. Are people not able to lock in a rate? My last two mortgages were 22 and 28 years ago and I locked both in….now own home and zero debt of any kind….so not really in the know on mortgages.

    1. Variable rate loans let you get in at a low teaser rate, with the risk of having to pay a much higher rate when the loan resets in a few years. This was a big factor in the 2007-2009 financial crisis, IIRC.

      1. They are counting on refinancing at lower rates in the future. I must say they will be proven right considering Fed’s past actions.

        2. It’s different this time, with rampant uncontained inflation. The Fed’s tightening cycle may last longer than expected.

        3. They are counting on refinancing at lower rates in the future.
          Maybe they think they will be moving on in less than 5 (or 7) years and take out a 5 or 7 year ARM at lower rates.
          I believe the average time a person spent in a house was about 7 years. Time Might have changed in the last 5-6 years.

    2. why are people getting variable rate loans

      Realtors’ mantra: “Marry the house. Date the rate.” Realtors hope that rates will gone down next year.

      2. In a sea of record low interest rates I don’t understand how people think they going lower??? Crazy

    3. The USA is the only country that has 30 year fixed. All the other countries are using either variables or fixed for a term (like 5 years) and then they readjust.

    1. There won’t be any consequences to his lies

      Protests won’t work
      Ridicule and mockery won’t work
      Releasing incriminating documents or emails won’t work
      Lawsuits won’t work
      Voting “harder” won’t work

      There is only one way out of this.

    2. That was featured last night. There’s a bunch of them that lied to Congress. Hope they got good attorneys.

  29. Ok, I have been deep diving a little bit on the Climate Change Hoax. Found a few interesting facts .
    -All Gore won the Nobel Prize in 2007 for his Climate Change work . In 2009 Nobel Prize was taken back based on a petition of the fraud of it all..
    -A Judge Overturned 9 of the points Gore asserted in his famous movie ” Inconvenience Truth” was false.
    -In 1997 a Congressional Committee found the Climate Change Narrative to not be proven.
    – None of the predictions by Al Gore has come true, yet they have been brainwashing children in schools that climate change is going kill them .
    – They asserted Global cooling, than switched to Global warming….
    – Most Scientists recognize that the sun cycles have more to do with climate than the carbon theory. ..
    .- – – The polar bear population increased 42%, , ice caps didn’t melt , and the sea
    levels didn’t rise 20 feet as the All Gore and Cult of Terrorists fear mongers asserted..
    -Check out how much cloud seeding is being done , and how that can affect Climate ..
    -Since Climate Change lockdowns , withdraw of energy , fertilizers, food
    supply, that will create famine, freezing and deprivation to world populations, humanity must recognize that sinister forces must be stopped, and the infiltrated Government are in collusion on the One World Order take over.

    =-Just as the Covid lockdowns, useless masks , fake vaccines, were a weapon of mass destruction of humanity, so is the fraudulent narrative of Climate Change.
    The WEF, the CCP, the United Nation , Health Agencies, corrupted and extorted Global Governments , Royalty, Money Elite, Bill Gates, Klaus Schwab, etc , want to kill or enslave you.
    You can’t be a climate denier or a vaccine denier, or dispute the fraudulent narratives and its clear censorship of free speech was employed for mass deception.
    Just saying.

    1. Climate lockdowns are starting in the UK, in Oxford. By this time next year it will be the entire island. I also expect parts of the EU to be in climate lock down as well.

      The WEF is circling in for the kill. They will impose their Great Reset in Europe first.

  30. How are the Fed’s vaunted wealth effects working out for you and yours?

    Is it too early to conclude that the perceived wealth effects of Quantitative Easing were illusory, and the real effects were to make society collectively poorer, including increased levels of homelessness because housing prices have gone to the moon?

    1. Markets
      DOW 33,676.97 -0.31%
      S&P 500 3,959.06 -0.11%
      NASDAQ 11,065.23 -0.15%

      Fear & Greed Index
      Americans’ wealth slips further after massive loss in the spring
      By Tami Luhby, CNN
      Published 12:23 PM EST, Fri December 9, 2022
      Pedestrians pass in front of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2022.
      Michael Nagle/Bloomberg/Getty

      New York CNN — 

      Americans’ wealth continued to slide in the third quarter as stock prices plunged over the summer.

      The net worth of households and nonprofit organizations dropped by $400 billion to $143.3 trillion in the third quarter, according to data from the Federal Reserve released Friday. The value of households’ stocks declined by $1.9 trillion, while their real estate holdings increased in value by $700 billion.

      The decline comes after their wealth plummeted more than $6 trillion in the second quarter, which was also driven primarily by a drop in stock prices.

      This is a developing story and will be updated.

      1. “…their real estate holdings increased in value by $700 billion.”

        That’s pretty interesting, given recent news that the bottom has fallen out from beneath the housing market.

        It reminds me how FTX had a value of $32 billion the night before it went bankrupt.

        1. Business
          Here’s how many Americans think US housing market is heading for a ‘crash’
          By Thomas Barrabi
          December 6, 2022 11:19am Updated

          A significant portion of Americans fear the once-booming housing market is headed for a significant crash in the months ahead, recent survey results from LendingTree showed.

          According to the survey, 41% of Americans expect the housing market to crash within the next 12 months. By comparison, just 25% of respondents said they expect the sector to avoid a crash, while 34% said they weren’t sure.
          …
          https://nypost.com/2022/12/06/heres-how-many-americans-think-us-housing-market-is-heading-for-a-crash/

    2. Homelessness doubles in Boise, aid-group leader says: ‘We don’t want to become Portland’ By David Staats Updated December 09, 2022 11:16 AM Current Time 1:51 / Duration 2:00 UP NEXT: Steep rent, cost of living, force Boise renters to double up

      A Boise man faced eviction this summer after his house’s rent increased to $3,000 a month.

      By Sarah A. Miller

      Homelessness has surged in Boise, the leader of a homeless-services organization says. The number of people experiencing homelessness in Boise has nearly doubled in the past 2½ years, said Stephanie Day, executive director of CATCH, or Charitable Assistance to Community’s Homeless, a Boise nonprofit that works to help people find stable housing and become financially independent. The number of single people without homes has risen from about 300 at any given time before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic to about 600 now, Day told the Boise Planning and Zoning Commission. The number of families has risen from about 150 to about 250.

      “I think the community is kind of sheltered from the crisis that we’re in right now, because Interfaith expanded its shelter services to the Red Lion, and they’ve been housing a lot of people in hotels,” Day told the commission on Monday. She was referring to Interfaith Sanctuary, one of the Treasure Valley’s two largest homeless-shelter providers. Interfaith has been renting dozens of rooms at the Red Lion Inn Downtowner with federal and city money.

      Day testified in favor of a proposed apartment building near Saint Alphonsus Regional Medical Center that would house low-income people earning as little as 30% of the area median income. That’s as little as $17,700 a year for a single person, according to the city’s income and affordable-rent guidelines. Rent for such a person up to $443 per month is deemed affordable. For a four-person household, 30% of the median income is $25,250, and the maximum affordable rent is $631. The median is the midpoint between the lowest and highest incomes.

      Day said Boise needs more housing for low-income people to avoid the fate of major West Coast cities overwhelmed with homeless encampments. “We don’t want to become Portland,” she said. “We don’t want to become Seattle.
      …
      Read more at: https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/local/community/boise/article269766652.html#storylink=cpy

      1. “The number of people experiencing homelessness in Boise has nearly doubled in the past 2½ years”

        Finally catching up with Denver.

        I’ve stopped really “noticing” people sleeping on the ground in the middle of the daytime. They could be taking a nap, passed out, or in a fatal overdose.

        Just part of the urban landscape, like a planter or bus stop bench. It wasn’t like this in 2019.

        1. It’s unbelievable in downtown San Diego, especially at a time of record low unemployment. It will get very ugly if the long heralded recession comes to pass.

    1. Inside the frantic texts exchanged by crypto executives as FTX collapses
      by Brian Neeley
      December 9, 2022
      Inside the frantic texts exchanged by crypto executives as FTX collapses

      A day before beleaguered cryptocurrency exchange FTX filed for bankruptcy, rival exchange Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao sent an alarming message to FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried.

      Mr. Zhao was concerned that Mr. Bankman-Fried was orchestrating crypto trades that could send the industry into recession. “Stop now, don’t do more damage,” Mr. Zhao wrote in a group chat with Mr. Bankman-Fried and other crypto executives on November 10.

      FTX and its sister hedge fund, Alameda Research, collapsed shortly after uncovering an $8 billion hole in the exchange’s accounts. The explosion sparked a crypto crisis, as companies affiliated with FTX teetered on the brink of bankruptcy, putting the future of the entire industry in question.

      A series of about a dozen group texts between Mr. Zhao and Mr. Bankman-Fried on November 10, obtained by The New York Times, shows that prominent crypto leaders feared the situation could worsen. Their frantic communications offer a glimpse into how business is conducted behind the scenes in the industry, with at least three top executives from rival companies exchanging messages in a group on the encrypted messaging app Signal.
      …
      https://biz.crast.net/inside-the-frantic-texts-exchanged-by-crypto-executives-as-ftx-collapses/

    3. Tech
      FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried faces probe over Luna cryptocurrency crash
      By Thomas Barrabi
      December 8, 2022 10:31am Updated
      Sam Bankman-Fried faces a wave of legal action. Getty Images

      The feds are reportedly investigating whether beleaguered FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried manipulated the market for two cryptocurrencies that crumbled earlier this year – eventually resulting in the downfall of his own company.

      Prosecutors are examining whether Bankman-Fried engaged in illicit trading activity to drive down the prices of TerraUSD and Luna – a pair of cryptocurrencies interlinked by algorithms that became essentially worthless in May, the New York Times reported. The collapse of those digital currencies erased more than $50 billion in market value.
      …
      https://nypost.com/2022/12/08/ftxs-sam-bankman-fried-faces-market-manipulation-probe-over-luna-cryptocurrency-crash/

    4. CNBC TV
      Politics
      SEC issues new guidance requiring companies to disclose cryptocurrency risks
      Published Thu, Dec 8 2022 3:32 PM EST
      Updated Thu, Dec 8 2022 7:18 PM EST
      Chelsey Cox

      Key Points

      – The SEC is advising companies to disclose their involvement with digital commodities firms, according to guidance released Thursday.

      – The guidance comes a day after SEC Chair Gary Gensler defended the agency from claims that it failed to prevent crypto firms from misusing customer funds.

      – Companies are advised to describe any risks or material exposures related to crypto assets.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/08/sec-issues-new-guidance-requiring-companies-to-disclose-digital-currency-risks.html

      1. Entertainment
        Published December 9, 2022 6:24am EST
        Justin Bieber, Madonna, Adidas and more named in class action cryptocurrency lawsuit
        Paris Hilton, Jimmy Fallon, Serena Williams and Kevin Hart were also named in the class action suit against Yuga Labs, Inc.
        By Tracy Wright FOXBusiness
        Major cryptocurrency player BlockFi files for bankruptcy

        Dozens of celebrities were named in a class action lawsuit filed Thursday against blockchain cryptocurrency start-up, Yuga Labs, Inc.

        Madonna, Paris Hilton, Justin Bieber, The Weeknd, Jimmy Fallon and his production company, Electric Hot Dog, Inc. were among the many sued for their involvement in “promoting and selling a suite of digital assets.”

        “The executives at Yuga and Oseary together devised a plan to leverage their vast network of A-list musicians, athletes, and celebrity clients and associates to misleadingly promote and sell the Yuga Financial Products,” documents obtained by Fox News Digital stated. 

        “Soliciting sales of digital assets like NFTs and tokens comes with disclosure duties just like any other traditional financial product. And whether it is a company, DAO, or celebrity influencer, the individuals involved in misleading investors should be held accountable,” attorney Sean Masson told Fox News Digital.
        …
        https://www.foxbusiness.com/entertainment/justin-bieber-madonna-adidas-more-named-class-action-cryptocurrency-lawsuit

        1. Anyone who takes their financial advice from a celebrity endorsement deserves exactly whatever happens as a result.

    6. Opinion
      Blockchains, What Are They Good For?
      Dec. 1, 2022
      By Paul Krugman
      Opinion Columnist

      A year ago Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were selling at record prices, with a combined market value of around $3 trillion; glossy ads featuring celebrities — most infamously Matt Damon’s “Fortune Favors the Brave” — filled the airwaves. Politicians, including, alas, the mayor of New York, raced to align themselves with what seemed to be the coming thing. Skeptics like yours truly were told that we just didn’t get it.

      Since then the prices of crypto assets have plunged, while a growing number of crypto institutions have collapsed amid allegations of scandal. The implosion of FTX, which appears to have used depositors’ money in an attempt to prop up a related trading firm, has made the most headlines, but it’s only one entry on a growing list.

      We are, many people say, going through a “crypto winter.” But that may understate the case. This is looking more and more like Fimbulwinter, the endless winter that, in Norse mythology, precedes the end of the world — in this case the crypto world, not just cryptocurrencies but the whole idea of organizing economic life around the famous “blockchain.”

      And the real question, it seems to me, is why so many people — not just naïve small investors, but also major financial and business players — bought into the belief that this bad idea was the wave of the future.
      …
      https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/01/opinion/blockchains-what-are-they-good-for.html

    7. Pushback Against Dimon’s Crypto Views
      Bloomberg Markets
      TV Shows
      December 6th, 2022, 8:30 PM PST

      JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon likened crypto tokens to “pet rocks,” continuing his long history of skepticism about the digital assets. Now, he’s getting pushback for his comments from the industry. Annabelle Droulers reports on Bloomberg Television.
      (Source: Bloomberg)
      …
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2022-12-07/pushback-against-dimon-s-crypto-views-video

      1. “If you’re going to call cryptocurrencies pet rocks, you don’t understand the industry.”

        What’s so hard to understand about a 70% CR8R event on the glidepath to oblivion?

    8. Investing
      Bitcoin
      The Coins ·Bitcoin
      Bitcoin miners took on billions in debt to ‘pump their stock’—leading to a crypto catastrophe
      BY Robert Stevens
      December 9, 2022 at 3:30 AM PST
      Bitcoin mining equipment
      Cryptocurrency mining hardware awaits repair at an electronics store in Arnhem, Netherlands, on Nov. 10, 2022.
      Valeria Mongelli—Bloomberg/Getty Images

      The phone just won’t stop ringing, beams Zach Bradford, the CEO of Bitcoin mining company CleanSpark. The calls are from other mining bosses—and they’re panicking. After Bitcoin crashed and energy costs spiraled over the summer, mining firms that took out expensive short-term loans to buy hardware during the bull run now teeter on bankruptcy. Lenders are breathing down their necks, and the miners need quick cash. But only a handful of companies are buying mining rigs these days—and Bradford’s CleanSpark, which only took on a small amount of debt during the bull run, is one of them. 

      Having always sold 70% of the Bitcoin it mined using mostly cheap nuclear energy, CleanSpark is in the enviable position of being rich enough to swoop in to buy box-fresh, top-of-the-line machines from near-bankrupt miners at sensible prices. At the start of the month, CleanSpark spent $5.9 million on 3,843 miners that Bradford says cost about $1,500 each—down from $13,000 last November during peak Bitcoin mania. Crypto finance giant Grayscale also had hopes of buying miners on the cheap but then pulled back amid economic troubles at its parent company, while Bitdeer set up a $250 million fund to exploit the crisis.

      Meanwhile, the pressure has only continued to build at companies that bungled the Bitcoin crash. Core Scientific, America’s largest Bitcoin miner, took on a debt-to-equity ratio almost 12 times greater than CleanSpark during the bull run and now risks bankruptcy if it doesn’t raise money by the end of the year, having lost $1.7 billion in 2022 alone. Another miner, Argo, told investors it’ll shut down if it can’t sell miners it hasn’t even taken out of the box. Another, Iris, defaulted on a $108 million loan. 

      And there is the state of Texas, whose bold experiment to welcome Bitcoin miners to help balance the power grid risks turned into a Lone Star State-sized disaster. In the wake of rising energy prices and debt burdens among miners, one state executive bemoaned a situation where “transformers, switch gears, and mobile data centers and containers for mining…are just sitting there.”

      So how exactly did this mess develop? One would expect that miners, who had to wait months for out-of-stock rigs to arrive, would have played it safe in a market known for volatility. But Guzman Pintos, the cofounder of mining company Luxor, says that these mining companies were incentivized to load up with debt to “pump their stock.” The premise is simple enough: The more mining rigs a company operates, the more Bitcoin it can produce, the greater its revenue, the higher its stock’s value—so long as Bitcoin’s price continues to fly.
      …
      https://fortune.com/crypto/2022/12/09/bitcoin-miners-billions-debt-crypto-catastrophe/

    9. Turner Wright
      8 hours ago
      CZ and SBF duke it out on Twitter over failed FTX/Binance deal

      The former FTX CEO claimed that Binance “threatened to walk at the last minute” without an additional $75 million, accusing CZ of lying about his role in the deal.
      News
      Collect this article as NFT

      Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, or CZ, and former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, or SBF, have revealed new details about the failed agreement between the exchanges during FTX’s liquidity crisis in November. 

      In a Dec. 9 Twitter thread, CZ referred to Bankman-Fried as a “fraudster,” saying Binance exited its position in FTX in July 2021 after becoming “increasingly uncomfortable with Alameda/SBF.” According to the Binance CEO, SBF was “unhinged” at the exchange pulling out — a claim that prompted an online response from the former FTX CEO.

      Bankman-Fried criticized CZ for his public admonition of FTX, adding details about the negotiations between the exchanges amid FTX’s reported “liquidity crunch” in November prior to the firm filing for bankruptcy. SBF said at the time that FTX had reached a “strategic transaction” with CZ, but Binance later pulled out after reviewing the exchange’s balance sheets. The former FTX CEO claimed that Binance “threatened to walk at the last minute” without an additional $75 million, accusing CZ of lying about his role in the deal.

      “You didn’t even have the rights to pull out as an investor unless we chose to buy you out–much of the tokens/equity were still locked,” said SBF, addressing CZ.
      …
      https://cointelegraph.com/news/cz-and-sbf-duke-it-out-on-twitter-over-failed-ftx-binance-deal

      1. I don’t see what interest CZ had to consumate the FTX bailout deal… unless a failure to do so resulted in a collapse of the entire cryptoverse, including Binance.

          2. What is it about collapsing Ponzi bubbles that some of us find fascinating and others do not?

            De gustibus non est disputandum.

          4. I’m sure we will all arrive there at the point when the Everything Bubble collapse bottoms out.

            FTX imploded in the early innings.

    10. Capital City
      The Real Reason Washington Is Silent on the Crypto Scandal

      The crypto industry contributed to both parties and got what it wanted. With no partisan benefit, will anyone in Congress complain?
      CEO of FTX Sam Bankman-Fried testifies.

      Former CEO of FTX Sam Bankman-Fried testifies during a hearing before the House Financial Services Committee Dec. 8, 2021. Bankman-Fried said he’d sent about the same amount of money to Republicans as Democrats. | Alex Wong/Getty Images

      By Michael Schaffer
      12/09/2022 04:30 AM EST

      To most people, the implosion of the cryptocurrency marketplace FTX seems like an emblematic 21st century imbroglio, replete with indecipherable technological and financial jargon. But to Washington good-government advocates watching the political fallout this month, it also points to something that feels distinctly retro: A bipartisan Beltway scandal.

      Writ large, the Washington aspect involves the speed with which the crypto industry managed to insinuate itself at the nexus of money and power across the political spectrum just as the government was grappling with how to regulate this confounding new industry.

      Writ small, it involves a March letter from eight members of Congress to Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler sharply criticizing the organization’s ongoing investigation of blockchain and cryptocurrency firms. The legislators, most of whom had gotten significant contributions from crypto players, essentially called on the feds to back off.

      “Federal agencies must be good stewards of the public’s time, and not overwhelm them with unnecessary or duplicative requests for information,” the letter scolded, warning against bureaucratic buttinskis who might “stifle innovation.” The letter, written when the likes of Sam Bankman-Fried were riding high, somehow didn’t suggest that watching out for fraud or protecting the broader financial system might also be worthwhile endeavors.
      …
      https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/12/09/crypto-scandal-sam-bankman-fried-ftx-00073178

      1. Crypto’s Crash Has Been Swift but Largely Self-Contained. Here’s Why.
        One of the reasons: traditional banks have stayed pretty separated from crypto
        By Wall Street Journal
        Dec 08, 2022 4:00 am

        Crypto imploded in 2022, as investors lost faith in digital assets and the industry was plagued with crisis. But unlike other collapses, it has largely avoided rippling into other markets. WSJ explains how crypto became so interconnected.
        Illustration: Mallory Brangan

        1. “One of the reasons: traditional banks have stayed pretty separated from crypto.”

          Not only do I find this remarkable, but also borderline implausible. Do you remember how embroiled the big Wall Street investment banks were in subprime and for how long they were able to keep it hidden from public view?

          Megabank, Inc is attracted to money flows like flies are attracted to steaming piles of 💩.

    12. The Financial Times
      Opinion The Long View
      The wild world of crypto needs better health warnings
      While regulators debate new rules, unsuspecting punters do not deserve to be the collateral damage
      Katie Martin
      FT montage including images of a dog and a fox
      The barking is now suddenly louder, more urgent and more assertive when it comes to warnings about the crypto industry from financial regulators
      Katie Martin yesterday

      When my dog spots a fox in the garden, he immediately stands to attention and growls softly at the glass door, curly tail vibrating with irritation at this incursion into his territory. He is sure going to show that fox who is boss. Any minute now. 

      London’s foxes are a fearless bunch that can handle a fight, and when they spot him squeaking at them from his comfy indoor world, they pay him no heed. It is only when they decide to leave the garden of their own accord that our pampered pooch starts barking furiously to be let out and barrels outside to demonstrate his dominance, safe in the knowledge that the abrasive wild foe has already hopped over the fence.

      And so it is with crypto. For years, financial regulators and central banks have whimpered from behind their glass doors at the crypto industry. These tokens, they have repeatedly said, have no intrinsic value. Anyone buying them should be fully prepared to lose everything without any recourse. The warnings have done little to dent the industry.

      Now, though, the barking is suddenly louder, more urgent and more assertive. Since the implosion of FTX, one of the biggest and supposedly one of the more reliable exchanges, authorities have cranked up the volume on their warnings. 

      “Finally, there are more people blowing the bullshit whistle,” Senator Elizabeth Warren told news outlet Semafor in an awkwardly worded but nonetheless impactful turn of phrase. 

      Other heavyweights have piled in. US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen has described crypto as “an industry that really needs to have adequate regulation. And it doesn’t.”

      The thing is, regulators have spent so long getting to this point that some have come around to the view they should not bother properly regulating the stuff after all.

      That was the view articulated late last month by the European Central Bank. In an unusually punchy blog post entitled ‘Bitcoin’s last stand‘, the ECB dunked on the crypto industry from a height. Stability in the price of bitcoin — the biggest token around — is “an artificially induced last gasp before the road to irrelevance”, wrote director-general Ulrich Bindseil and adviser Jurgen Schaaf. It is “rarely used for legal transactions”, it is “cumbersome, slow and expensive” and it is an “unprecedented polluter”. You get the idea, and you can imagine the feedback this has received from the crypto true believers.

      But regulation, they added, “can be misunderstood as approval”. This is a good point: It can give the impression that crypto tokens are just like stocks, bonds or other regulated investment products. 

      This feeds in to the argument that some have made to just let crypto burn. Already, we have seen how unsuspecting punters can be drawn in to something that looks like a professional trading venue. Plastering regulators’ logos on these sites could very well bolster the impression of official oversight. 
      Line chart of $ per coin showing Bitcoin’s wild ride

      This is not the only reason to let crypto wither and die on its own. Others are that the turmoil in the crypto industry has left the rest of the financial system unscathed. What’s more, determined buyers of crypto often simply use VPN connections to the internet to skirt national rules, making some elements of regulation a waste of time. 
      …

      1. Here’s a great idea: Since a key selling point for cryptocurrencies is the absence of regulation, DON’T REGULATE IT.

        1. Spoiler alert: the collapse of FTX is paving the way for Central Bank Digital Currencies controlled via a social credit system. Look to China.

  32. So, some people ask ” why didn’t the Elites take over 100 years ago , since this has been their plan for over a century.
    The answer to the question in MHO is..

    The Elites did try to take over and they were instrumental in wars, revolutions, Commie infiltration and social engineering of populations.
    They didn’t have the technology yet for mass enslavement and hacking..
    The United States Constitution prevented some of their advances and they had to infiltrate governments, the United Nations, develops a vaccine of genocide , and capture health and safety protections.
    They had to introduce Commie Obama Care. .
    They had to destroy capitalism, the family structure, , religion, , and invade by open borders and destroy sovereign states.
    The United States Constitutional Republic
    was one of their biggest obstacles in the One World Order takeover
    They had to destroy US manufacturing base by outsourcing to places like China to Monopolize production in a Commie Country.
    They had to infiltrate school system for brainwashing of youth ,about Marxism and racism ..

    They had to corrupt science by false narratives such as Climate Change and Global Panademics to create weapons of mass destruction of the current systems.
    They had to rig economic system for unsustainable debt, looting and a destabilization of economic systems.
    The had to corrupt politicians , and rig elections to obstruct a government by the people.
    They had to obstruct and censor free speech and defraud the public, and they want to come for the guns.
    They want to take fossil fuels, freedoms, and put people in prison like smart cities where you are confined to a 15 minute radius.
    They operated covertly for a long time, but now they are out in the open about their outrageous murderous agenda of a World Dictorship of enslavement and loss of freedom. Its getting apparent that they have genocide intent for global populations.
    They have gone operational on a plan of over 100 years to take life , liberty and pursuit of happiness from humanity.

    1. “They didn’t have the technology yet”

      This +1.

      The curated internet, the gatekeeper internet, is all propaganda and lies. And do you really need to bring your phone with you for a five minute drive to the grocery store? Deprive them of any unnecessary data that they will only use to spy on you and sell more ads.

      Cancel all subscriptions. All of them (with the exception of our humble blog host’s subscription to the Epoch Times). Just stop giving them your money.

      My car that I bought last year has never communicated via bluetooth with my phone. The car and the phone are both spying on me anyway, but it’s my decision, my behavior, that denies giving them any more data, for free.

      Unplug. Give nothing back. Use only what you need.

  43. ‘If you find yourself in mortgage prison, unable to refinance, roll up your sleeves, put on your best poker face and negotiate with your current bank’

    That’s the spirit!

    1. Investor’s Business Daily
      Investors Lose Trillions As Founders Run 16 Stocks Into The Ground
      MATT KRANTZ 08:00 AM ET 12/09/2022

      Investing in S&P 500 companies run by their founders used to be a smart bet. Not this year: It’s cost you $2.8 trillion.

      Shares of 16 stocks in the Global X Founder-Run Companies ETF (BOSS), including Carvana (CVNA), Meta Platforms (META) and Affirm Holdings (AFRM), are down a devastating 65% or more this year so far, says an Investor’s Business Daily analysis of data from S&P Global Market Intelligence and MarketSmith.

      So much for a “founder’s advantage” — challenging one of investors’ longest-standing beliefs.

      Founders Fall Flat

      And it’s not just a case of a few unlucky founders.

      More than 80% of the 100 stocks in the Founder-Run Companies ETF are down this year, collectively wiping out $2.8 trillion in companies’ market value. The money lost on companies led by their founders is roughly a third of the $8 trillion lost on all stocks this year, Wilshire Associates says.

      And the founder ETF’s value itself is down 32.7% this year That’s even worse than the 28.7% drop of the tech-tracking Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ). And well below the S&P 500’s nearly 17% decline.

      Seeing founder-run companies struggle is another sign of how the S&P 500’s declines are stress-testing many of the promising companies that thrived when money was easy. Everyone is a genius when interest rates are low. For investors now, big ideas don’t matter. Execution does. Even founder-led Tesla (TSLA) has erased half a trillion dollars in market value this year.

      “With the bond market calling for recession, analysts are marking down their profit expectations,” said Jack Ablin, strategist at Cresset Capital Management.
      …
      https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/sp500-founders-run-their-companies-into-the-ground-and-you-pay/

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