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It’s As If A Chunk Of Their Nest Egg Has Suddenly Been Snatched From Underneath Them

A report from the Houston Chronicle in Texas. “‘For buyers now, you’re not really buying at the peak because that was more about six months ago to a year ago when we had multiple offers,’ said Jennifer Wauhob, HAR’s chair. ‘People were bidding over asking price, buyers had to waive all the contingencies. Those days are gone now. There’s more inventory out there, they’re not having to compete and they can actually make an offer that’s below asking price and have a chance of getting their offer accepted.'”

The Albuquerque Journal in New Mexico. “The Albuquerque metro area’s hot housing market is cooling during the holiday season, as closed sales, single-family detached homes going under contract and the median sales price all dropped in November. According to the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors, the median sales price for a single-family detached home was $328,000 in November – a drop off of $7,000 from October. In January, the median sales price was $310,000 and this year saw a high of $340,500 in May. November’s median sales price is the fourth lowest this year.”

KOIN in Oregon. “The Portland housing market was vastly different in November 2022 compared to the year before. In just one year, pending sales and closed sales have both plummeted by more than 40%. The report said the median sale price of homes in the Portland metro area in November 2022 was $525,900. That’s down $11,100 from October 2022. Josh Lehner, a state economist with the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, said these changes to the housing market aren’t exclusive to Portland; the entire state is experiencing them.”

The Commercial Appeal in Tennessee. “Home sales in the Memphis area housing market continue to drop though inventory is slowly rising, according to new data. The median home sales price in the Memphis area declined 4.4% from November 2021 to November 2022. In November 2021, the median home sales price was $225,000. In November 2022, that figure dropped to $215,000.”

From Bisnow. “Deals are hard to come by and close, and uncertainty and inactivity are permeating every facet of the industry. ‘There’s definitely a lot of financial stress on brokers,’ said New York City retail broker Michelle Abramov. ‘You definitely see a lot of brokers who have left the industry and, quite frankly, continue to leave the industry because of the difficulties at hand.’ Even brokers with job security, many of whom work for commissions rather than salaries, are grappling with a tough new set of realities. Brokerage firms reported that transaction volumes in investment sales and mortgages fell between 11% and 37% in the third quarter. In Manhattan, the nation’s largest office market, leasing activity fell 50% in November, historically a busy month.”

Bloomberg on New York. “A group of apartments at Mercedes House, a luxury residential and retail complex on Manhattan’s West Side, is in contract to sell for a little more than $100 million. Empire Capital Holdings, which specializes in acquiring discounted commercial and apartment properties, is buying the 162 rental units, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified. The seller is Invesco Ltd., which acquired the units years ago for $170 million. Prices for New York-area rental buildings are down almost 16% from the fourth quarter of 2021, according to Green Street.”

From NBC News. “Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and members of his Federal Reserve Board might not be cruel and heartless people, but they are in the process of killing the American dream of home ownership for millions of families. Homeowners are finding they can’t sell their homes for what they were worth just a few months ago. This is particularly troublesome for couples approaching retirement, such as neighbors of mine who are looking to downsize.”

“Three months ago, a home very comparable to theirs sold in our neighborhood for the impressive price of more than $1.3 million. But the couple recognize they are now selling into a declining market, so they listed their home for just under $1 million. It’s as if a chunk of their nest egg has suddenly been snatched from underneath them.”

Los Angeles Magazine in California. “With the city’s real estate off 20 percent since its peak last spring, sellers are slashing prices. Here are some properties that lost thousands and millions in value. Reached via a winding private drive, this three-bedroom, three-bath, 2,988-square-foot traditional canyon home on five acres dates to the 1930s. Value Since it was listed in June, the property has been reduced in price three times in roughly $1 million increments; the latest reduction was made in September. Price $6,995,000  ⁄  Today $3,499,999.”

“Recently renovated, this 5,691-square-foot, five-bedroom, six-bath mid-century modern adds an eat-in chef’s kitchen and infinity pool with cabana. Value The price was lowered by $1 million after listing last spring, casual evidence that even a Beverly Hills location isn’t immune to current market pressures. Price $7,950,000 ⁄  Today $6,799,000.”

The Timmins Press in Canada. “It’s no secret that the last two years have been a boon to the real estate market in Northern Ontario. Sudbury Real Estate Board and Canadian Real Estate Association data are reporting that it’s taking longer to sell homes and prices are starting to decline slightly. In May, the median home price for Espanola and the area (including Massey, McKerrow, Nairn Centre, Webbwood, Walford and Spanish) was $374,000. For November, that had dropped to around $280,000. Though buyers from the south still find the area attractive, gridlock has ensued as the southern Ontario market has seen prices plummet up to 40% in some areas.”

The Penticton Herald in Canada. “Don’t let rising interest rates scare you away from the housing market, says a Penticton mortgage broker amid a fresh data release showing continued softening of home prices. ‘There are tremendous opportunities now compared to a year ago. The increased mortgage costs have basically been offset with the decline in prices,’ said Rene Carloni. ‘Personally, I’d rather pay less for a home today at a higher interest rate compared to what we had a year ago, with low rates and higher prices. Market prices peaked nearly everywhere in the province in early 2022 around February. Prices locally since then are down 10% to 15%.'”

Business Daily on Kenya. “Coast developers uproot bungalows for skyscraper apartments. But while rental charges have been on the uptick, the selling prices of apartments in the posh estates have stagnated due to oversupply. ‘The high-end apartment market in Nairobi is grappling with static unit sales prices performance, attributable to an excess supply of apartments in Kilimani, Lavington, Parklands and Kileleshwa, which is placing downward pressure on values,’ the report says.”

The Malay Mail. “The property sector would remain challenging moving into 2023, with a lot of market correction needed to be put in place, due to a clear oversupply of properties in certain sectors and locations in the country, said developers. Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd managing director Mohd Imran Mohamad Salim said the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the property market was very obvious, including inflation, interest rates hikes, productivity lag, labour shortages as well as issues in the supply chain which either drive up cost or reduce productivity. ‘We have a challenging few years ahead (and) what is very important to note now is that we see industry players who are really looking into their business fundamentals.'”

The Vietnam Express. “Only 213 were sold in HCMC and neighboring Binh Duong Province, and none in other southern localities, according to DKRA Vietnam. The sales numbers plummeted by 89% partly because supply, especially in new projects, decreased sharply, it explained. Tightened credit conditions also played a part by making it difficult for people to borrow to buy housing. According to the real estate consultancy, in November many developers offered discounts of 40-50% for apartments in the primary market while prices decreased by 3-5% in the secondary market from October. Most transactions last month were by sellers who urgently needed money to repay banks after loan interest rates surged.”

“Nguyen Mac Hoai Nam, general director of Nam Phat Consulting Service Company, told VnExpress the apartment market is in a prolonged slump, with liquidity and demand falling even in HCMC and Binh Duong. Many experts expect the situation to continue into 2023, with apartment prices in the primary market remaining high and people selling at discounts in the secondary market to cut losses.”

From Reuters. “For more than a decade, Chinese developers’ debt-fuelled construction boom enriched the country’s shadow banks, who were eager to capitalise on the needs of an industry desperate for credit and too risky for traditional lenders. Now, in the wake of a government clampdown on real estate firms’ debt binge, that credit demand has collapsed – and so too has the single biggest revenue stream for shadow banks, also known as trust firms.”

“It is also shrinking, with once-well-paid employees leaving for other jobs after scavenging for new deals. ‘Everyone was eating a mouthful of rice, surviving another day,’ said Jason Hao, who left his job this year at a Shanghai trust firm after his pay plunged from as much as 4 million yuan ($570,000) a year to about 240,000 yuan ($34,000).”

From Fox Business. “FTX spokesperson Kevin O’Leary testified before the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday, discussing the collapse of the cryptocurrency trading platform, and he recalled a conversation he had with former CEO and co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried right after things went south. ‘After my accounts were stripped of all of their assets and all of the accounting and trade information, I couldn’t get answers from any of the executives in the firm, so I simply called Sam Bankman-Fried and said, ‘Where is the money, Sam?’ O’Leary told the committee in response to a question regarding why he believes the company failed.”

“He said Bankman-Fried’s response began with him claiming he did not know because he no longer had access to the company servers. ‘I said, okay, let’s step back. This is a simple case in my mind of where did the money go?’ O’Leary continued. ‘And I said, ‘Sam, walk me back 24 months. Tell me the use proceeds of the assets of your company. Where did you spend it?'”

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This Post Has 173 Comments

  1. ‘The median home sales price in the Memphis area declined 4.4% from November 2021 to November 2022’

    Another sh$thole rolls over YOY.

      1. Highly recommend the show, by the way, for anybody who still has TV. It is one of the last shows I watched before I ditched mine 10 or so years ago.

  2. ‘Since it was listed in June, the property has been reduced in price three times in roughly $1 million increments; the latest reduction was made in September. Price $6,995,000 ⁄ Today $3,499,999’

    There’s more crater at the link.

  3. ‘the median home price for Espanola and the area (including Massey, McKerrow, Nairn Centre, Webbwood, Walford and Spanish) was $374,000. November, that had dropped to around $280,000’

    As long as I’ve been doing this, there seems to be no shortage of igloo clusters I’ve never heard of.

  4. ‘a luxury residential and retail complex on Manhattan’s West Side, is in contract to sell for a little more than $100 million. Empire Capital Holdings, which specializes in acquiring discounted commercial and apartment properties, is buying the 162 rental units, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified. The seller is Invesco Ltd., which acquired the units years ago for $170 million. Prices for New York-area rental buildings are down almost 16% from the fourth quarter of 2022’

    That’s some red hotcakes right there.

    1. “…acquired the units years ago for $170 million…(fast forward to now)…in contract to sell for a little more than $100 million.”

      Ouch!

  5. ‘in November many developers offered discounts of 40-50% for apartments in the primary market while prices decreased by 3-5% in the secondary market from October. Most transactions last month were by sellers who urgently needed money to repay banks’

    So developers are assisting in an a$$pounding to their previous buyers.

    1. It seems like they are just making the necessary adjustments to changing market conditions needed to stay afloat.

  6. ‘For buyers now, you’re not really buying at the peak because that was more about six months ago to a year ago when we had multiple offers’

    Well that’s comforting Jen.

    ‘People were bidding over asking price, buyers had to waive all the contingencies. Those days are gone now. There’s more inventory out there, they’re not having to compete and they can actually make an offer that’s below asking price and have a chance of getting their offer accepted’

    Now dammit Jen, you’re telling them to give it away.

  7. The borrowing and spending binge by Canadian households, businesses, and governments (all levels) continues unabated.

    At the end of September, 2022 the total debt outstanding in Canada (bottom line of the Statistics Canada credit market summary data table) was $10.904 trillion. At the end of September, 2021 the total debt outstanding was $9.902 trillion. In the 1 year period from the end of September, 2021 to the end of September, 2022 it increased by $1.002 trillion. This is an increase of 10.1%.

    Canadian total (household, business, and all levels of government) debt numbers as of the end of September, 2022

    https://owecanada.blogspot.com/2022/12/canadian-total-household-business-and.html

  8. New username (hat tip to Glenn Greenwald) for the rapidly evolving environment regarding social media and government censorship.

    Your safety is my priority number one!

    1. Here’s why this is so important. The ADV China guys have followed how China has control things via social media. The censor pretty much everything, using literally thousands of fake bot accounts to flood what they do allow, giving massive up votes to their propaganda. And it works. People in China really believe the US was having a black plague with CCP virus, thus the superiority of the zero freedom regime.

      For better or worse, internet comments are how we discuss things today. As we saw during the first round of election fraud, speech was seriously curtailed before the election. Many thousands of people were banned, de-platformed, shadow banned, you name it. Once the fraud became apparent, mentioning it got you whacked from the big tech scum. They obviously were headed down a China style path.

      Why does this matter? Because in China they control everyone through their phones. When protests broke out, they would send anyone in the areas into immediate lockdown. You can’t travel, buy food or go to work if your phone says you can’t be out and about. Just like in the US, every single technological advance has immediately been seized upon to spy on people, record every text, email and phone conversation. In China they know where everybody is day and night, with a ‘social credit score’ arbitrarily deciding everything you can and can’t do. We’re gonna end up like that if we don’t put a stop to this. That’s not hyperbole. And now that the cover is being blown, the really important people are outraged. ‘What do you mean sex with children is a bad thing?’ Sex change of little kids is ‘fighting racism’. They vilify free speech, which is the foundation of a system like we have. They are just as wicked as they seem and they have to be stopped.

      1. +1,000

        And btw, that Glenn Greenwald clip where he calls out the concept of “online safety expert” as phony and total BS is excellent.

      2. Agreed. I have been leaving my phone at home, or if I might need it I turn it off before I leave and only turn it back on if necessary. But if we need a Q code to leave our homes, then the bad guys will have won.

        And now that the cover is being blown, the really important people are outraged. ‘What do you mean sex with children is a bad thing?’

        This goes to show just how close to victory they are. This has to be stopped.

        1. leaving my phone at home

          I am in the process of a personal budget review. No reason to let the bucket of savings just leak out all over. So I was considering my cell phone expenses, which have crept up. I didn’t need unlimited data and hotspot except when I am out cruising so I trimmed that back. Bill still ridiculous. So I talked to verizon about going back to a flip phone. Figured the “smart phone premium” was about half the remaining bill.

          Verizon does not allow people to use simple flip phones anymore. Not any, not at all.

          After decades, I am no longer a Verizon customer. Track that.

          1. Ting mobile Ting mobiledoes. They also sell a flip phone. Their plans are cheap. We pay about $60 at most if it’s been a chatty month (three phones, so $20 each) and my husband forgets to use the wi-fi when home.

        2. Few people appreciate that Omicron COVID was a BLESSING.

          Without going into detail, I believe that Delta COVID was would have dragged out the pandemic for at least a year longer than Omicron did. Without Omicron, the WEF would have had that extra year to inflict more mandates, vaccine passports, and concentration camps in Australia, likely Europe, and some blue states. But we were lucky. That huge Omicron spike over last Christmas basically gave us herd immunity and a dive in hospitalizations in the space of three months instead of twelve. TPTB didn’t have time to set up their China-like controls.

          1. It’s hard to keep a Pandemic Hysteria going for four years.

            Controls only work as long as the people go along with it.

          3. I think you’re being sarcastic. But anyway.

            For Delta, masks and vaccines worked, but only sorta. Everyone would eventually be exposed, but it would drag out freakin forEVer. Think 12-15 months to flatten the curve. That’s a gov official’s dream. They could drag out the whole mess and institute all sort of controls, in the name of saving the health care system.

            With Omicron, NOTHING worked to stop infection or spread. But Omicron was milder, especially those with prior exposure or a vaccine. Gov officials couldn’t flatten the curve if they wanted to. Instead, we had a giant spike of mild or asymptomatic cases over Christmas. After that it just turned into a bad flu at most, where it is today. It was over so fast, gov had no real opportunity to take control.

  10. “‘For buyers now, you’re not really buying at the peak because that was more about six months ago to a year ago when we had multiple offers,’ said Jennifer Wauhob, HAR’s chair.

    1. Realtors are liars
    2. Knife catchers stupid enough to buy into a bursting housing bubble are going to be cautionary tales as the carnage plays out and true price discovery lays waste to the Fed’s Everything Bubble

    1. ‘we worked for free’

      It seems like the slaves were part of the plantation household. Payment was nonpecuniary, in the form of food and shelter.

      1. That such nonsense can be spewed and taken seriously just goes to show how bad things have become.

        No one asks how these “reparations” will be funded. Will property or savings be confiscated? Just how much more can income be taxed?

        This is peak insanity. And worst of all, it will be coming to the other 49 states eventually.

      2. My ancestors weren’t in this country during the slave era. Do I still owe reparations because of the color of my skin?

        2. My whole family was still in Norway. Will I owe money there, too?

          Nobody alive today was a slave or a slaveowner. The DemocRATS and their race-baiting, divisive identity politics are a scourge upon humanity.

          1. I don’t see how Newsom can make good on his promise with out completely bankrupting California and sending every productive citizen or firm out of the state. I know he wants to tax people even after they leave.

          4. “Nobody alive today was a slave or a slaveowner.”

            And yet all the elitist, Puritan commie’s from New England who claim to be “old money” made that family money in the Transatlantic slave trade.

            Every.Single.One.

        3. “My ancestors weren’t in this country during the slave era. Do I still owe reparations because of the color of my skin?”

          If you voted for the party that is advancing this farce, then yes you get to pay up.

          1. At $350K a pop, the total bill would be 900 billion. or $22K per Californian, or for a family of 4 that would be $88K they would pony up. Since half the state doesn’t have a pot to p!ss in, double that number.

            So how is Newsom going to pay for this? And how are Hispanics going to like being onerously taxed to give a jackpot to the “mayates”?

          3. So, any predictions on when California is consumed by flames and the whole thing is burned to the ground? 2030? 2025?

      3. CA wasn’t even a state until 1850 and according to the census the population was 92,597. This is just another flash mob daylight robbery.

  12. “The Albuquerque metro area’s hot housing market is cooling during the holiday season, as closed sales, single-family detached homes going under contract and the median sales price all dropped in November.

    Albuquerque is a gang-infested barrio town that is quickly resembling its south-of-the-border counterparts when it comes to rampant crime & insecurity.

  13. “The Portland housing market was vastly different in November 2022 compared to the year before. In just one year, pending sales and closed sales have both plummeted by more than 40%.

    Is that a lot?

  14. Prices for New York-area rental buildings are down almost 16% from the fourth quarter of 2021, according to Green Street.”

    As NYC spirals deeper into dystopia, the vaporization of collateral on all those property loans is going to be downright Biblical. Can you spell “financial contagion,” boys & girls? I knew you could!

    2. We’ve already gotten off to a good start with rain this year in Cali. Of course the dumb$h!ts that run the state didn’t bother to dig any more holes to collect water during the past dry years.

      1. Of course the dumb$h!ts that run the state didn’t bother to dig any more holes to collect water during the past dry years.

        No doubt that would have been raycis.

    3. “State officials recently announced that water agencies like Metropolitan will only get 5% of their requested supplies for the start of 2023 due to lower reservoir levels. Some agencies may get a little bit more if its necessary for drinking, sanitation or other health and safety concerns.”

      There’s plenty of worry happening behind closed doors!

  16. Homeowners are finding they can’t sell their homes for what they were worth just a few months ago.

    Point of correction: you’re not a “homeowner” until the last mortgage check clears.

  17. You should probably ignore any posts linked from Revolver News, because they likely contain disinformation:

    “Getting a glimpse of how much money the federal science and intelligence organizations are spending to intervene in the public sphere, I started looking today for other federal efforts to steer social media and the discussions that happen there — and for government projects to combat supposed “vaccine misinformation.” My preliminary and tentative answer is that there don’t appear to be many places in the federal government that aren’t working to shape your perception of the world that reaches your brain through your computer screen, and to get needles into your arm. Narrative control is looking like a whole-of-government project, in an endless stream of me-too efforts from every office that can get in on the action.”

    https://chrisbray.substack.com/p/ubiquitous-federal-nudge-platoons

    1. My preliminary and tentative answer is that there don’t appear to be many places in the federal government that aren’t working to shape your perception of the world that reaches your brain through your computer screen, and to get needles into your arm.

      While most of the jab mandates have been overturned, I expect them to try, try, again.

      1. While most of the jab mandates have been overturned, I expect them to try, try, again.
        Flip a couple of Supreme court justices and there will be mandates and property eviction moratoriums upheld..

  18. But the couple recognize they are now selling into a declining market, so they listed their home for just under $1 million. It’s as if a chunk of their nest egg has suddenly been snatched from underneath them.”

    Boo f*cking hoo. Young couples wanting to start a family are priced completely out of these Fed-juiced housing markets. The sooner the greedheads see their fictitious Yellen Bux housing values vaporized, the sooner sanity and fiscal prudence can impose true price discovery.

    1. It’s as if a chunk of their nest egg has suddenly been snatched from underneath them.”
      Yes but somehow they fail to mention home prices went up what, 41% in 2 years. They still have a huge windfall, at least for another what, another year or so until we head back to pre-pandemic pricing.

    2. Young couples need to understand it is their patriotic duty to fund retirements for old people. They don’t need to have kids because American can and will replace the population with illegal immigrants. All is going according to plan.

    3. “Boo f*cking hoo. Young couples wanting to start a family are priced completely out of these Fed-juiced housing markets.”

      Mean while, we are also supposed to be supplying funds for the SSI COLA increase. I believe that increase was something like 8.5%. My husband didn’t get an 8.5% col pay raise, but some Boomer with a millions dollars of equity in their home for which they paid $100,000 did.

      This country is stupid.

      1. but some Boomer with a millions dollars of equity in their home for which they paid $100,000 did

        While this is indeed stupid, if you demand means testing for SS, you might eventually find yourself on the wrong end of it. Sure, at first they only exclude those with 7+ figure net worths. Then the sliding slope kicks in and eventually only vibrants and illegals will get SS

        1. some Boomer

          Ironically, I won’t live long enough to outlive the thievery of paying into this “forced retirement system” for well over five decades. There were no earnings on this account and the fees went up relentlessly, year after year.

        3. Then the sliding slope kicks in and eventually only vibrants and illegals will get SS”

          That’s probably going to happen anyway before it just fades away and a new tax will appear with a new name and new promises.

    1. How many nobodies collapse for every high profile person? The numbers must be huge, but covered up and gaslit.

  22. A reader sent these in:

    Ron Butler
    @ronmortgageguy
    How So Many Of The Forces That Moved Real Estate Prices Up Are Now Gone
    Let’s break it down:
    1) Prices are going down not up, sounds like there should be “deals” so people would rush to buy but at today’s mortgage rates the math of payments doesn’t work but MOST important (good thread)

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1603038595585040385

    Ron Butler
    @ronmortgageguy
    5) No more buying Pre-Sale Condos: people used to buy in multiples now we really don’t hear of many Pre-construction Condo purchases at all. The narrative of buy 3 and wait 4 years for the price to rise rapidly and then sell by assignment is pretty much dead. Winter is HERE

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1603038607568158720

    Charlie Kirk

    VIDEO: Washington Post CEO Frederick Ryan announces massive layoffs after the paper loses 500,000 subscribers THIS YEAR. Watch the reaction when WaPo reporters receive the news…

    https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1603093779212161025

    Ring leader “Zack Morris” has to forfeit all of his 10 properties

    https://twitter.com/margot_rubin/status/1603079409195425793

    PPP fraud was the biggest fleecing of the American taxpayer in history

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1603269448495820800

    CarDealershipGuy

    More proof that luxury car prices are getting crushed – There are Mercedes G-Wagons now selling for less than *$190K*. A whopping $70,000 drop (on average) in under 12 months. For context, here are the historical wholesale averages:

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1602800102799810561

    CarDealershipGuy

    I’m in a live online car auction right now and prices of cars below $25K are getting crushed. This wasn’t the case 30 days ago. cars below $25K seemed immune. (will share more details shortly)

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1603054136391569410

    Rates have now officially been raised as much as they were in the 2003-2006 housing debacle. The FOMC outlook was ultra hawkish while downgrading GDP for 2023. Gamblers have been warned.

    https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1603109483449790464

    No rate cuts in 2023 will exert massive continued pressure on the real estate markets. Price corrections and crashes will continue.

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1603105502908628993

    And now reality sets in … the Fed isn’t going to stop anytime soon.

    https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1603122033646530560

    Jay Powell thoughts?
    Resolute. Labour market still tight.should not be celebrating 7.1% inflation.
    Rapid easing in 23-24? In your dreams.
    Equities/credit overly optimistic.
    Nuff said.
    Now we wait.

    https://twitter.com/PPGMacro/status/1603097037486100481

    “That’s really the worst pain, if we failed to act,” Powell says. He says he wishes that there were a painless way to restore price stability, but there isn’t.

    https://twitter.com/jeannasmialek/status/1603119304089735170

    Powell on changing the Fed’s 2% inflation target: “We’re not going to consider that under any circumstances.”

    https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1603119671317708801

    Ryan Lundquist
    @SacAppraiser
    This is so important. Most local price metrics are down less than 2% from last November, so some say, “Bro, prices are barely down.” But it’s a much different view when looking at change from the spring. My advice? Look at year-over-year AND recent stats.

    https://twitter.com/SacAppraiser/status/1603134331483869184

    In Royse City, Texas Dr.Horton just slashed prices on a few homes by 16%. Largest single drop I’ve seen yet.

    https://twitter.com/JaysonnnnS/status/1603042275097018369

    I recently lived in New Orleans for 8yrs & so many of my friends were kicked out of there homes bc they were turned into Airbnbs. Housing is basically non-existent there.

    https://twitter.com/IloveEthal/status/1517740394439757824

    Bonus chart: Market is often wrong because it thinks the future looks like the past. Post GFC it was always thinking rates would immediately rise, and today it always thinks rates are immediately cut. It is very bad at recognizing regime changes, which we may be in.

    https://twitter.com/FedGuy12/status/1603034554574700544

    Securities fraud charges

    U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission·
    Dec 14
    Today we announced charges against eight social media influencers in a $100 million securities scheme in which they used Twitter and Discord to manipulate exchange-traded stocks.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1603036838221987840

    So much for free speech. https://twitter.com/JxckSweeney/status/1603028610209779712
    This Tweet is from a suspended account.

    https://twitter.com/CXCarroll/status/1603037095253377025

    Lance Lambert

    “In Austin, I know an example where a builder cut prices 30% and sold 75 homes in two weeks after selling no homes,” @AliWolfEcon
    tells @FortuneMagazine

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1603047035636252673

    For everyone who doesn’t seem to grasp why this is necessary, I beg you to look at the map of Airbnb’s in New Orleans.

    https://twitter.com/KatenCheyenne/status/1517658342868631552

    2021: There’s a structural housing shortage. We didn’t build enough homes for millennials
    2022: Oh really? Here’s a map of all the #Airbnb listings in LA area

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1603063010595344384

    Hmm…this page doesn’t exist. Try searching for something else.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1603080829370081282

    1. ’m in a live online car auction right now and prices of cars below $25K are getting crushed.

      A few months ago, my ten year old KIA was supposed to be worth 80% of what I paid for it, which is absurd. It should only be worth a few thousand, not 14-15K. From what I saw the other day, it’s “down” to 12K, which is still ridiculous. It should be worth 4K tops (it is very low milage) and maybe 2K if it had typical mileage.

      1. We got in a car accident in January. I had a 2015 Kia that I bought used and was going to drive until it died because it was paid off.

        Anyway, it was totaled and the insurance company paid me more for it than I paid when I bought it. I was dumbfounded.

        Since we were and are a one car family I got to turn around and use that over payment to over pay for a new (to me) vehicle that was way over priced. -sigh-

        1. So are you going to return the money. You know, like you want the SSI collecting Boomers to do. 😉

          1. I see you don’t know the difference between tax money being stolen and a private insurance policy.
            Typical.

          2. the difference

            I’m going to guess that if you run a private insurance plan and steal all the money, you might go to jail.

          3. Better yet…. the Feds can send me a check for my “contributions” to that blackhole with no interest and we call it good.

    2. I’m in a live online car auction right now and prices of cars below $25K are getting crushed. This wasn’t the case 30 days ago. cars below $25K seemed immune. (will share more details shortly)

      The last people to get the memo are Craigslist private party sellers. They are still priced at the peak, with no offers.

  23. “…It’s as if a chunk of their nest egg has suddenly been snatched from underneath them…”

    Economics lesson 101: A home is not a nest egg.

      1. “…Especially when financed with massive leverage…

        Nest Egg -> La Brea Tar pits. House and loan owner all sucked under never to be seen again.

  24. “It’s as if a chunk of their nest egg has suddenly been snatched from underneath them.”

    This is the cruel, somewhat random inequity of housing bubble collapse in action. So many folks in our close community saw the opportunity to sell their San Diego home in 2021 for a $1+ million dollar windfall and relocate to a larger house in another state with cash in the bank left over from the sale proceeds.

    Those who didn’t act on the opportunity to liberate equity at the bubble top are soon to discover that it has vanished as quickly as SBF’s cryptocurrency empire did this fall. The tide has gone out, and many swimmers will be shocked to discover they are not wearing a bathing suit.

    1. “…they are in the process of killing the American dream of home ownership for millions of families. Homeowners are finding they can’t sell their homes for what they were worth just a few months ago. This is particularly troublesome for couples approaching retirement, such as neighbors of mine who are looking to downsize.”

      What did the author of this sob story do to earn the 40% windfall home equity lottery they won during the pandemic? And why didn’t these people cash out their gambling chips before the casino shut down? If you snooze, you lose when it comes to winning in a mania.

    2. “This is the cruel, somewhat random inequity of housing bubble collapse in action. So many folks in our close community saw the opportunity to sell their San Diego home in 2021 for a $1+ million dollar windfall and relocate to a larger house in another state with cash in the bank left over from the sale proceeds.”

      The real cruelty is that these losers brought their stupidity to the south east where they outbid people who could never afford to argue with their cash payments. The average income for a dual employed home where I live is ~$70,000. That’s why a 2,000 sq. ft. home would sell for around $200,000. Now these idiots from the west coast come in and over pay for tiny houses and walla- no one can afford anything anymore.

        1. More likely they are from the northeast. I too know of no one who moved to Florida though I do know a few who moved to Texas.

          2. I did a google search. About 20,000 clownifornians move each year to Florida, vs. 60,000 New Yawkers.

            Now it is possible that your neck of the woods is over represented.

            From the online stats more Clownies move to Colorado than to Florida, yet I don’t see “California plates everywhere”

    1. It’s amusing how badly Kevin still wants to believe in SBF. I think the clawback is going to sting. He should probably stfu before he winds up doing time too. They got his wife off of murder charges (she killed two with their boat) but maybe karma is coming for him this time.

      1. He deserves even worse than that.

        1930s era Stalin USSR digging canals with picks and shovels in the wintertime would be a good punishment for this jack@ss.

  27. “With the city’s real estate off 20 percent since its peak last spring, sellers are slashing prices.”

    There’s already open discussion of a 20% drop in LA, and the CR8R has barely started to form.

    This is going to be a deep one!

    1. “Price $6,995,000 ⁄ Today $3,499,999.”

      1-3499999/6995000 = 50% off… quite a bit more than 20%!

      “He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense.”

      — John McCarthy

  28. “This is a simple case in my mind of where did the money go?”

    If the assets were held in cryptocurrencies, and cryptocurrencies dropped by 70% since late 2021, then a lot of the money went poof. If the cryptocurrencies financed leveraged gambling activities, then a lot more went up in smoke.

    Ponzi collapse is not rocket science.

    1. Binance CEO Warns Staff To Gear Up For A Bumpy Ride Ahead: Report
      by Murtuza Merchant, Benzinga Staff Writer 
      December 14, 2022 11:19 AM | 1 min read
      Zinger Key Points
      — After significant outflows, Binance founder warns his team in a memo.
      — Binance is now the subject of “a lot of extra scrutiny and tough questions,” CZ says.

      CEO Changpeng Zhao says the ongoing “crypto winter” is still ongoing and that the coming months can be difficult.

      “While we expect the next several months to be bumpy, we will get past this challenging period — and we’ll be stronger for having been through it,” Zhao stated in an internal memo to Binance employees, according to Bloomberg.

      Zhao, known as “CZ” in the crypto industry, said that Binance is now the subject of “a lot of extra scrutiny and tough questions” due to the collapse of prominent rival crypto exchange FTX.
      …
      https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/22/12/30085982/binances-cz-does-about-turn-on-crypto-self-custody-99-of-people-will-end-up-losing-it

  29. How come Mr Market is so glum today? Uncle Warren told me a me a new bull run would start any day now.

        1. The Financial Times
          Markets Briefing Equities
          US and European stocks tumble as global outlook sours
          Hawkish central banks on both sides of the Atlantic raise rates and warn of further pain to come
          US Fed chair Jay Powell at a press conference with Fed flags in the background
          US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell: ‘It will take substantially more evidence to give confidence that inflation is on a sustained downward path’
          George Steer 2 hours ago

          European and US stocks tumbled on Thursday as hawkish warnings on interest rates from the European Central Bank and weak US retail sales data unnerved skittish investors.

          Traders worried over the outlook for global rates and economic growth as central banks in the US, UK, Europe, Switzerland and Norway all raised their key lending rates and many signalled that further rises were likely as they battled domestic inflation.

          In early New York trading, the benchmark S&P 500 lost 2.1 per cent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite shed 2.4 per cent after the US commerce department reported a fall in retail sales by 0.6 per cent month-on-month in November, the most in 11 months. The decline was more than the 0.1 per cent drop forecast by economists polled by Reuters.
          …

  31. Newsom’s getting ready to run for president and changing his tune like we wont notice this below..

    “California is expanding opportunity for everyone, regardless of immigration status,” Newsom said in a written statement. “We’re a state of refuge — a majority-minority state, where 27% of us are immigrants.”

    Newsom said signing the bills would “further support our immigrant community, which makes our state stronger every single day.”

    1. Does he plan to expand California’s homelessness crisis from sea to shining sea?

      I’d think a Republican candidate could destroy him in a presidential campaign by providing myriad examples of the state of disaster California has become with him as governor. However, I may be underestimating the ignorance of the typical American voter.

      1. +1

        charlie Goodspeed
        1 year ago
        Shame on all the fathers that let their daughters be groped just for a job
        2.7K
        aoflex
        Reply

  33. “Well known for running a tight ship.” Notice a theme?

    Via Motley Fool (no link):
    Elon Musk Admits: Starlink Is Losing Money
    Unprofitable and hobbled by unpaid bills abroad and bandwidth constraints at home, the prospects for a successful Starlink IPO seem dim.

    1. Elon Musk Admits: Starlink Is Losing Money

      I had my doubts about it from the get go. The monthly rates were huge. Unless you live in the sticks it makes no sense.

        2. 5,6,7?

          At least 10 or 11:
          Ex-wife – 6 including deceased first born son
          Grimes – 2
          Neuralink employee – twins
          Amber Heard – 1

    1. Yahoo
      Goldman Forecasts The Best Bond Market In 14 Years
      Eric Reed
      Tue, December 13, 2022 at 7:57 AM·6 min read

      For many investors, 2023 might be the first time to consider bonds in their adult lives.

      That’s the takeaway from an insight published recently by Goldman Sachs, which forecasts that 2023 bond yields will exceed stock dividends. This, the paper says, hasn’t happened since the height of the Great Recession in 2008.

      Per the report:

      “Bond yields trended down following the global financial crisis, making stocks seem like almost the only choice for investors seeking attractive returns. In fact, equities have materially outperformed bonds since 2008 and especially since the COVID-19 crisis – the relative performance of the S&P 500 Index versus U.S. 30-year Treasury bonds has reached new peak levels this year, much above those during the tech bubble.”

      Now, to be clear, this report refers specifically to yields rather than returns. That is, Goldman is writing about the interest payments on bonds relative to the dividend payments from a stock portfolio. Capital gains returns are a separate area, one in which stocks tend to outperform bonds during most economic environments.

      However to see stocks reliably outperform bonds on income has been an unusual feature of the past 14 years. Bond interest often exceeds stock dividends because of their reliability. A stock might issue strong dividends at any given time, but bonds issue steady, fixed payments. That stability tends to add up to greater overall yields for bonds, although it hasn’t been the case for a long time.

      So it it time to dip into bonds? Read on for more insights, and as always, consider matching with a vetted financial advisor for free to strategize whether increased bond exposure makes sense for your particular financial plan.

      Why Are Bonds Set to Be Hot?

      Much of this has to do with jobs.

      Despite officially exiting recession in mid-2009 the U.S. job market remained weak for another seven years. It wasn’t until 2016 that the unemployment rate reached what economists consider “full” employment, around 4%.

      In response, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate at or near zero from 2008 until 2017. Although it raised rates as high as 2.4% by mid-2019, that process was interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which forced the Federal Reserve to crash rates back down to zero.

      The bond market swings heavily on the interest rate set by the Federal Reserve. In part, this is because many bonds set their own interest explicitly based on this rate. They define their bond rates as the central bank’s rate plus a certain markup, meaning that an era of low Federal Reserve interest rates by definition means an era of low market bond rates.

      In other part, this is because U.S. Treasury bonds (a shorthand for all Treasury debt instruments, including notes and bills) set their interest rates based on the Federal Reserve’s rate. Treasury bonds are considered the benchmark “safe” assets that the private market always has to beat. If a company’s bond offers lower interest than the government does, investors will simply purchase Treasury debt for its guaranteed return.

      As a result, persistently low Federal Reserve interest rates kept the bond market weak for well over a decade. At the same time the U.S. stock market went on a run. Between 2009 and late 2021, the S&P 500 climbed from around 740 points to more than 4,700.

      That growth applied to dividend payments as well. In most years during this period the average S&P 500 dividend yield hovered at 2% or higher; a figure that meant significantly higher payments as those average dividends climbed from 2% of 740 points to 2% of 4,700 points.  At the same time the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate, a standard benchmark for bond returns, posted yields consistently below 1%. Frequently it posted average annual losses.

      Goldman sees this ground changing.

      “[A]fter a sharp increase in bond yields this year, new and potentially less risky alternatives are emerging in fixed income: U.S. investment grade corporate bonds yield almost 6%, have little refinancing risk and are relatively insulated from an economic downturn,” Goldman said in its report. “Investors can also lock in attractive real (inflation-adjusted) yields with 10-year and 30-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS) close to 1.5%.”

      This is by contrast with a standard, if soft by comparison, S&P 500 dividend yield of around 1.7%.

      “The gap in yields between stock and bonds has narrowed substantially since the COVID-19 crisis and is now relatively low,” the Goldman report read. “The same is true for riskier credit, which yields relatively little compared with risk-free Treasuries. Investors aren’t getting much compensation for the risk of owning equities or high-yield credit in comparison to lower risk bonds.”

      For investors, Goldman sees two strong upsides to bonds in this market.

      First, income investors can simply collect better gains. Bonds yield fixed, scheduled payments that you can plan around. For many investors who want to generate cash off their portfolios, that’s preferable to the unpredictable nature of dividend payments. Now they can get that predictability without serious opportunity cost.
       
      Second, and perhaps more consequentially, Goldman sees this as a safe harbor in case of a coming recession.

      “[E]quities,” Goldman said, “and high-yield debt are particularly exposed to an economic slowdown or recession.”

      Often the value of stocks during economic volatility is as a hedge against inflation. Share prices and dividends tend to move cyclically with the value of money, so investors can expect combined stock returns to track inflation to a degree. By contrast, fixed-income assets tend to generate low returns relative to high inflation. However most analysts expect inflation to decline in 2023, reducing this downside protection to a stock portfolio.

      Instead, most economists and investors see the main risk in 2023 as an overall downturn (a recession). In that environment, equities are particularly exposed while the fixed value of bonds tends to be a strong hedge.
       
      It’s been more than a decade, but for the first time since T-Pain topped the charts investors at Goldman Sachs are recommending bonds as the smart play for income investors.

      The Bottom Line

      Goldman Sachs expects bond yields next year to exceed stock market dividends for the first time since 2009. That’s particularly good news, because a potential recession might make stocks a tough investment.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-forecasts-best-bond-market-155727534.html

      1. “Goldman Sachs expects bond yields next year to exceed stock market dividends for the first time since 2009. That’s particularly good news, because a potential recession might make stocks a tough investment.”

        Does anyone know how stocks did compared to bonds from September 2008 through March 2009?

  39. ‘the southern Ontario market has seen prices plummet up to 40% in some areas’

    Good thing everybody put 50% down!

    ‘his pay plunged from as much as 4 million yuan ($570,000) a year to about 240,000 yuan ($34,000)’

    I’ll have a blue Christmas without you
    I’ll be so blue just thinking about you
    Decorations of red on a green Christmas tree
    Won’t be the same dear, if you’re not here with me
    And when those blue snowflakes start falling
    That’s when those blue memories start calling
    You’ll be doing all right
    With your Christmas of white
    But I’ll have a blue, blue, blue, blue Christmas
    You’ll be doing alright
    With your christmas of white
    But I’ll have a blue, blue, blue, blue Christmas
    You’ll be doing all right
    With your Christmas of white
    But I’ll have a blue, blue, blue, blue Christmas

  40. $150,000 2 bd 1ba 987 sqft
    3132 Locust Blvd, Bullhead City, AZ 86429

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3132-Locust-Blvd-Bullhead-City-AZ-86429/8390185_zpid/

    Date Event Price
    12/15/2022 Listed for sale $150,000 (+252.9%) $152/sqft

    4/3/2014 Sold $42,500 (-5.3%) $43/sqft

    3/5/2014 Listing removed $44,900 $45/sqft

    2/25/2014 Price change $44,900 (-10%) $45/sqft

    2/13/2014 Price change $49,900 (-16.7%) $51/sqft

    12/19/2013 Price change $59,900 (-14.3%) $61/sqft

    11/15/2013 Listed for sale $69,900 (+67.4%) $71/sqft

    10/29/2013 Sold $41,761 (-24.8%) $42/sqft

    3/20/2000 Sold $55,500 (+4.9%) $56/sqft

    5/12/1999 Sold $52,900 $54/sqft

    Ennio Morricone – Ecstasy of Gold (The Good, the Bad, the Ugly)
    Don Kanalje
    Jun 8, 2007

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNGe7iK1O-4

    3:40.

  42. Over this last summer I heard an older yenta floating in the community pool going on and on about how their neighbor got more for his house than they were listing theirs for, all while they were in a pending status. She said her husband was seriously considering un-listing, paying the penalty, waiting a couple more months and list it higher. I wanted so badly to slap her then tell her to go home and slap her husband too.

    I watched the property, and they sold under the contract they were in. They had NO IDEA what a bullet they dodged. Now as for the sucker that bought it…..

  43. Local news did a story recently on this listing, said “New on market”. This place has been for sale since 2017. Couldn’t sale it in 2019 so toss another 5mil onto asking and see what bites? Sometimes when you are stinking rich it’s best to just let it go. This place belongs to some race car guy. I’m guessing when you blow $25mil you want ocean view or walk out the door to a ski lift but that’s just me.

    https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/24503-Chris-Dr_Evergreen_CO_80439_M29229-22180

    3. Evergreen is relatively close to Dumver, on the east side of the continental divide, close to I-70; though that property doesn’t look like it’s in town or anywhere close

  45. Aren’t bears supposed to be in hibernation by this point in the year?

    It seems like stonks are following crypto into an early winter this year, with no Santa Claus rally on the horizon.

  46. Rep. Nancy Mace skewers LGBT activist with own tweets in ‘threats to democracy’ hearing

    By Victor Nava
    December 13, 2022 10:59pm

    Rep. Nancy Mace outwitted a Harvard Law instructor and transgender rights activist on Tuesday by using her own tweets against her during a House hearing on extremist rhetoric.

    During an exchange at the House Committee on Oversight and Reform hearing exploring the “threat to American democracy posed by white supremacist ideologies,” Mace (R-SC) asked the six witnesses whether they thought harsh political rhetoric posed a “threat to democracy.”

    Alejandra Caraballo, a transgender rights activist and Harvard Law clinical instructor, answered “yes” before Mace exposed the progressive advocate’s apparent hypocrisy based on her prior social media activity.

    Mace had two tweets from Caraballo at the ready, printed out on posterboards, one of which called for Supreme Court justices who ruled in favor of overturning Roe v. Wade to be accosted.

    The June 25 tweet by Caraballo read: “The 6 justices who overturned Roe should never know peace again. It is our civic duty to accost them every time they are in public. They are pariahs. Since women don’t have their rights, these justices should never have a peaceful moment in public again.”

    https://nypost.com/2022/12/13/rep-nancy-mace-skewers-liberal-activist-with-her-own-tweets/

    1. “Mace had two tweets from Caraballo at the ready, printed out on posterboards, one of which called for Supreme Court justices who ruled in favor of overturning Roe v. Wade to be accosted.”

      The “tranny” wasn’t expecting that retort. LOL

        1. Also interesting that Newsom is yammering about reparations, given that Clownifornia is projected to have a huge deficit next year, a whopping $54 billion.

          Since no election is due for 2 years, this isn’t about buying votes. Perhaps the objective is to create a Narrative that anyone who opposes reparations is an evil person. Then the Narrative shifts to the federal level. They get a few RINO turncoats to join the Dems, they pass a multitrillion dollar bill, Brandon signs it, vibrants nationwide get tons of free cheese, which they will squander and most of it will end up in the coffers of the super rich. Oh, and the rest of us get even more inflation. $12 for a carton of eggs?

          1. $12 for a carton of eggs

            It’s going to be tough for a family spending 30 to 40% of their take home on food, when they already spend 100% of it on house and car payments.

            Farm eggs here are just about on par price wise with factory eggs. Not sure there is a huge “free range” benefit when there is snow on the ground, but we’ll take advantage of the “local” benefit.

  51. Will Santa Claus get his mojo back before the year is out, and lift Wall Street spirits with yet another bear market rally? Or will Powell’s resolve to contain inflation result in a Blue Christmas, as in the song Mr. Jones referenced above?

    I guess time will tell… but we’re running out of calendar!

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=B6WnnZRSKYs

  53. My boss made his yearly appearance on site to drop off bonus checks this week. He’s lives in the high rent district in Fairfield county CT. I asked him how the housing market is there….. He said and I quote….. “it’s cratering”.

    I about fell out of my chair.

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