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The Times Of Too High Price Mean Almost Everything Will Be Believed For A Little While

A report from the Dallas Morning News. “‘There’s no doubt about it, the market is slowing down from a very high peak,’ said Texas A&M economist Jim Gaines. Homebuilders also saw a dramatic decline in sales that led them to slow construction of new homes and opt out of buying more land. In the third quarter, D-FW saw the largest year-over-year decline in home starts in almost a decade, according to Dallas-based housing analyst Residential Strategies. The region’s median sale price has dropped almost 9% since its peak of $435,000 in June.”

The Sun Sentinel in Florida. “Homebuilders using sale incentives such as price discounts or free upgrades has been a standard business model for many builders, but it has been on the rise since July, when 43% of homebuilders reported offering some type of incentives, noted the National Association of Home Builders. It increased to 59% in November, and then reached 62% in December. K. Hovnanian, another homebuilder in Florida, has special financing offers due to the changing market. The company didn’t have to be too aggressive with incentives on new contracts during the last quarter of the year due to a strong fiscal year as they delivered on homes that were contracted when housing demand was high.”

“‘Now that the fourth quarter is behind us and because of the progress we have made on constructing additional quick, move-in homes, we are now becoming more aggressive in our attempts to find the market price that will spur demand in each of our markets,’ stated Ara K. Hovnanian, chairman of the board. In terms of price reductions, about 35% of builders reported reducing prices, a slight downturn from the 36% who reported doing so in November. On average, they reduced prices by about 8%, a slight uptick of 5% and 6% earlier this year. The price reductions aren’t at the level seen during the housing bust of 2008, when they peaked at about 10% in February of 2008.”

From WTOP News. “In the D.C. region, sales have already slowed significantly. ‘Home sales in November were down 42% compared to November 2021. That is remarkable in and of itself, but in November we hit a decade low in terms of home sales for a November,’ said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Mid-Atlantic listing service Bright MLS. Bright MLS’s 2023 forecast says potential buyers will face less competition and gain some contract negotiating leverage, dynamics already observed by the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors.”

“‘Now we are seeing the return of home inspections and appraisals instead of waiving those contingencies, only one or two competing offers on a home, rather than 12 offers, and homes selling for closer to their list price, instead of tens of thousands over list,’ said Northern Virginia Association of Realtors Director Casey Menish.”

The Union Tribune in California. “San Diego faces a serious conundrum as to housing. Local governments’ efforts to induce more construction and to preserve naturally affordable housing so far have made only a marginal difference. Perhaps it is time to acknowledge that this region is bound to remain an expensive place to live, that the economy must adapt to this reality, and that continued growth will have to be up rather than out. San Diego will continue to grow and thrive well into the future, but we are being forced to adjust our vision of who will be able to participate in that future.”

The Los Angeles Daily News. “The U.S. housing market continued to sag for the fourth-straight month in October – with California metro areas having three of the nation’s biggest drops. The widely watched S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller price index for 20 key metro areas fell 0.8% from September, the fourth consecutive monthly decline. San Francisco: Off 13% vs. the pricing peak. Seattle: Off 12.2% vs. peak. San Diego: Off 8.5% vs. peak. Denver: Off 6.7% vs. peak. Los Angeles-Orange County: Off 6.6% vs. peak. Phoenix: Off 5.9% vs. peak. Dallas: Off 5.6% vs. peak. Las Vegas: Off 5.4% vs. peak. Portland: Off 5.2% vs. peak. Boston: Off 4.0% vs. peak.”

Westword in Colorado. “Auraria Student Lofts, an apartment building aimed primarily at college students on the Auraria campus — and maligned by tenants and subject to numerous Orders to Comply from the Denver Fire Department — submitted a plan to get out of bankruptcy on December 14 after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on June 9, less than an hour before the property was set to be auctioned off in a foreclosure sale. To get out of bankruptcy, Nelson Partners proposes completing about a half-million dollars of renovations and then selling the property at auction. It estimates that, once the renovations are complete, the property could be worth $65 million, enough to pay off the loan and earn some cash for Nelson Partners.”

“In this case, it appears that the new loan won’t interrupt the lien on the property from the first loan. That’s not out of goodwill toward DB Auraria, however. Despite students saying the building was predatory toward them, Nelson Partners claims it was the one that was the prey in the December 14 filings. ‘They’re saying it was what’s sometimes referred to as a ‘loan to own,’ says Adam Stein-Sapir of Pioneer Funding Group, a bankruptcy claim buyer based in New York. ‘You make a loan, but your intention, your expectation, is not that they’re just gonna pay you principal and interest over years and you’re gonna get all your money back one day. The intention of the loan was really to end up owning the property.'”

From Bloomberg. “Multiple stress points are emerging in credit markets after years of excess, from banks stuck with piles of buyout debt, a pension blow-up in the UK and real-estate troubles in China and South Korea. With cheap money becoming a thing of the past, those may just be the start. Distressed debt in the US alone jumped more than 300% in 12 months, high-yield issuance is much more challenging in Europe and leverage ratios have reached a record by some measures. Loan-loss provisions at systematically important banks surged 75% in the third quarter compared with a year earlier, a clear indication that they are bracing for payment issues and defaults.”

“The erosion of covenant protections also means the CLO holders and other investors in leveraged loans, such as mutual funds, are more vulnerable to losses than in the past. Recovery values as a result could be lower than average when defaults do occur, Oaktree said. Daniel Miller, Chief Credit Officer at Capra Ibex Advisors, is also worried about covenants, particularly those that circumvent the priority of creditors. ‘They are potential ticking time bombs sitting in the documentation,’ he said.”

The Montreal Gazette. “In a bid to bring inflation under control, the Bank of Canada raised its policy interest rate seven straight times starting in March, immediately boosting monthly payments for variable-rate mortgage holders. As inflation soared and borrowing costs shot up, Canada’s housing market began losing steam. Some, like Mouvement Desjardins chief economist Jimmy Jean, called it ‘the bursting of the Canadian real estate bubble.’ A single-family home in Greater Montreal sold for a median price of $520,000 in November, about 1 per cent less than in December 2021, industry data show.”

“For Quebecers with limited income, such as retirees, welfare recipients and the unemployed, the effect has been devastating.Quebec’s food banks now handle more than 2.2 million requests every month, a 20-per-cent increase year-over-year, according to data compiled this fall by the Banques alimentaires du Québec network. More worryingly, a growing number of food bank users have a job, says Martin Munger, Banques alimentaires du Québec’s general manager. ‘I’m shocked to see how many people with employment income don’t have enough money to feed their families,’ Munger said in an interview. ‘Something is very wrong with the system.'”

The South China Morning Post. “Hong Kong’s home prices dropped by the most in 14 years in November and look likely to fall again this month in what would be the longest series of monthly declines since the 2003 Sars epidemic. Barring a miraculous recovery in December, a 13-year annual rally in the city’s house prices is over. ‘The next home price index for December will see a decline of about 2.5 per cent,’ said Derek Chan, head of research at Ricacorp Properties. ‘Annually, the home price is expected to fall by 16 per cent, ending the 13 consecutive years of the rally from 2009 to 2021.'”

“In the first 11 months of this year, home prices have fallen by 13.8 per cent. From a peak of 398.1 in September last year, the home price index is down by 14.75 per cent. In November, ‘the housing market was at its worst moment,’ said Louis Chan, chief executive of the residential division at Centaline. The city’s property agencies are slashing headcount amid the slump in sales.”

“‘Real estate agents are facing unprecedented challenges,’ said Freddie Wong, chairman of Midland Holdings. The most intense ‘war of elimination’ in the history of the industry has broken out, and the unemployment rate among agents has soared, he added. ‘With the plunge in Hong Kong’s property turnover, there was an unprecedented heavy loss,’ said Wong.”

From Business Insider. “As Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire collapsed, a 48-year-old software developer lost access to roughly $120,000 of funds on FTX US in early November. Nauman, who asked to be identified by first name only, is a California-based father of three, and planned to use that money for his childrens’ college education. He had roughly five bitcoin on his account, as well as a smaller position in Avalanche, adding up to about $120,000 based on November prices. Insider reviewed receipts of his FTX investments, which represented about 25% of his family’s nest egg. ‘If funds just evaporate one day, it’s crookery,’ Nauman said in an interview. ‘Then you realize you’re part of a Ponzi scheme. That’s what makes me really upset. A good chunk of my savings are gone because someone tried to defraud me.'”

From Mises.org. “The 21st century, only 23 years old, has already had two giant, international housing bubbles. It makes one doubt that we are getting any smarter with experience. Among the countries involved in the second bubble, both the U.S. and Canada fully participated in the newest rampant inflation of house prices. Prices this time reached levels far above those of the last boom peak. For a number of years, one could ask: When would that ever happen? Now we know: in 2022. Now, in late 2022, with mortgage interest rates higher, housing bubbles are deflating, and house prices are dropping on a nationwide basis in both the U.S. and Canada. Here we go again into another house price fizzle following another house price boom.”

“We can take as a key ironic lesson that when large numbers of people believe house prices cannot fall, especially when they are emboldened by central bank behavior, it makes it more probable, and finally makes it certain, that the prices will ultimately fall. Ten years, it seems, is long enough to dim the memories that prices can move dramatically in both directions, even on a nationwide basis. A bubble market when extended for years makes a great many people happy, since they are making money and seem to be growing richer, and the higher their leverage, the faster they seem to be growing richer. As the great financial observer Walter Bagehot wrote 150 years ago, ‘the times of too high price’ mean ‘almost everything will be believed for a little while.'”

“Recall that a price has no substantive reality: it is an intersection of human expectations, actions, hopes and fears. I like to ask audiences, ‘How much can the price of an asset change?’ My proposed answer: ‘More than you think.’ Of course, nobody, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, knows just where house prices will go, but we can all guess. Noted economist Gary Shilling wrote in November, ‘Price declines are just starting,’ and ‘recent weakness probably has far to go.’ This seems to me likely. In any case, the second great housing bubble of this still young century is over and a new phase has begun.”

This Post Has 200 Comments
  1. ‘Now that the fourth quarter is behind us and because of the progress we have made on constructing additional quick, move-in homes, we are now becoming more aggressive in our attempts to find the market price that will spur demand in each of our markets’

    Let the schlonging of recent buyers begin!

  2. ‘submitted a plan to get out of bankruptcy on December 14 after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on June 9, less than an hour before the property was set to be auctioned off in a foreclosure sale’

    Recession proof!

      1. Remember, when you buy a house your property taxea are paying to promote this in the public schools, and if you dare object, Merrick Garland will toss yer azz in the January 6th gulag.

        Keep paying those property taxes, slaves.

        1. If you rent you’re still paying property taxes as the landlord is passing them on to you. It’s not like anyone is not funding this crap.

          1. It’s not like anyone is not funding this crap.

            Section 8 recipients who get earned income credit, child tax credit, SNAP, and free Biden buxx certainly aren’t funding….anything

          2. Landlords hope they’re passing property taxes onto renters. Ever heard of property alligators?

    1. Dr. Richard Levine is back, and he’s coming after your children.

      I believe that this is yet another disincentive against having children.

    2. Dick Levine, a man, does not realize he suffers from a mental disorder that has him believing he is a woman.

      He is no different from a person who believes they are a cat, were abducted by aliens, or spontaneously and uncontrollably utters foul language.

      He has a mental disorder. To agree with his madness is cruel.

        1. And enjoying having people being forced to call them “Ma’am”, being allowed into the high school girls’ locker rooms and getting athletic scholarships meant for women.

  3. ‘Perhaps it is time to acknowledge that this region is bound to remain an expensive place to live, that the economy must adapt to this reality, and that continued growth will have to be up rather than out. San Diego will continue to grow and thrive well into the future, but we are being forced to adjust our vision of who will be able to participate in that future’

    Time fer breakfast, eat that egg on yer face!

    1. the economy must adapt to this reality . . . San Diego will continue to grow and thrive well into the future

      How exactly? Sounds hollow.

  4. 𝗧𝘆𝗹𝗲𝗿, 𝗧𝗫 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟰% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗮𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘀 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗦𝗸𝘆𝗿𝗼𝗰𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀

    https://www.movoto.com/tyler-tx/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘶𝘢𝘭 𝘰𝘣𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥, “𝘉𝘶𝘺𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘣𝘳𝘢𝘪𝘯 𝘥𝘦𝘢𝘥.”

  5. Re: It makes one doubt that we are getting any smarter with experience.

    We learn from history that we do not learn from history. – Hegel

    1. Thunberg’s fans are too stupid to realize that her momentary win against Tate will be a Pyrrhic victory. Her one and only asset was her media persona. She was the poster child image of an innocent defenseless victim of greedy adults who precipitated climate change upon her. But she’s no longer a child, and this exchange shows that she is no longer either defenseless or innocent. She has nothing left, so I expect her to soon be replaced by a more appropriate victim.

      1. The game has already moved well past St. Greta. Right now globalists are forcing people to freeze this winter and next year they will unleash their engineered famines on humanity, to “save the world”.

        Everything is proceeding as planned.

      2. Her one and only asset was her media persona.

        Her father was outed pretending to be her online. It was all him and his ideals, using his daughter as the face. He’s a vile thug.

        1. It has always been clear from the get go that she was a marionette. You’d think that maybe the WEF would have have hired a prettier puppet; but in the end she was very effective, so maybe they knew what they were doing.

  6. “‘There’s no doubt about it, the market is slowing down from a very high peak,’ said Texas A&M economist Jim Gaines.

    And this, friends & neighbors, is why Jimbo gets paid the big bucks: being a peerless prognosticator of the housing market.

  7. It increased to 59% in November, and then reached 62% in December.

    Any FBs who signed on the dotted line in November or December, as the bursting of Housing Bubble 2.0 was gathering force, are prime candidates for court-ordered sterilization.

  8. Globalist scum media.

    Washington Post — How to fight domestic terrorism? First, officials have to define it (12/28/2022):

    “Republican attempts to minimize far-right violence hampers government efforts to combat the threat, extremism analysts say”

    https://archive.vn/ZXRF0

    1. The globalists & their Democrat-Bolshevik Quislings are going to expand the definition of “domestic extremist” to encompass anyone who doesn’t go along with globalist-dictated agendas and party lines, or who calls out their systemic corruption and sleaze. Forward, Soviet!

  9. Globalist scum media.

    New York Times — As Covid-19 Continues to Spread, So Does Misinformation About It (12/28/2022):

    “Nearly three years into the pandemic, Covid-19 remains stubbornly persistent. So, too, does misinformation about the virus.

    As Covid cases, hospitalizations and deaths rise in parts of the country, myths and misleading narratives continue to evolve and spread, exasperating overburdened doctors and evading content moderators.”

    https://archive.vn/TxZSY

    Evading content moderators?

    COVID VACCINES ARE POISON.

    Here a compilation of 47 tweets about this medical genocide:

    “Nuremberg 2: What a Real Inquiry into the Response to COVID Would Look Like.

    Given the magnitude of the harm that’s been done, the public deserves to know exactly who knew and did what, when, and why in the days leading up to the lockdowns of spring 2020 and beyond.”

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1607425359229890560.html

    It’s a medical genocide.

  10. San Francisco: Off 13% vs. the pricing peak. Seattle: Off 12.2% vs. peak. San Diego: Off 8.5% vs. peak. Denver: Off 6.7% vs. peak. Los Angeles-Orange County: Off 6.6% vs. peak. Phoenix: Off 5.9% vs. peak. Dallas: Off 5.6% vs. peak. Las Vegas: Off 5.4% vs. peak. Portland: Off 5.2% vs. peak. Boston: Off 4.0% vs. peak.”

    Frens, please join me in a moment of silent remembrance for all that Yellen Bux “value” that’s flown off to debauched currency heaven.

    1. In fairness, it’s not just only Yellen Bux. Any loan, whether between individuals, corps, banks, etc., is essentially a creation of money. And any termination of a loan, whether through default or repayment in full, is a destruction of money. At a basic level, money=debt. There was a good YouTube video on this a while back.

      During HB 1.0, there was a poster here who kept saying “Cash is King.” His point was that private money creation dwarfed the influence of the Fed and that likewise contraction of private loans would dwarf even the Fed’s money-printing binge, thus leading to deflation. We’ll have to see how it plays out this time around.

  11. Despite students saying the building was predatory toward them, Nelson Partners claims it was the one that was the prey in the December 14 filings.

    Buildings aren’t predatory, special snowflakes. The financier oligarchy that intends to monetize your existence from cradle to grave are the predators, but you’re too brainwashed and dumbed down to recognize it.

  12. Distressed debt in the US alone jumped more than 300% in 12 months, high-yield issuance is much more challenging in Europe and leverage ratios have reached a record by some measures.

    Heckova job, central bankers. Who knew that debt-fueled “expansion” funded with a tsunami of created-out-of-thin-air fiat currency was unsustainable in the long run.

    1. Southwest says its travel meltdown was partially caused by a ‘scheduling issue’ and that it’ll reimburse ‘reasonable requests’ for meals, hotels, and travel
      Taylor Rains, Paul Squire, and Rebecca Cohen
      Dec 27, 2022, 11:36 AM
      Southwest Airlines passengers stand in lines during delays and cancellations at Laguardia Airport, Friday Dec. 23, 2022, in New York

      – Southwest Airlines in part blamed a “scheduling issue” for thousands of flight cancelations during the holidays. 
      – At first, the airline blamed the week’s travel chaos only on the weather after an arctic blast caused low temperatures, strong winds, and snow across the country. 
      – Southwest said it would reimburse “reasonable” requests like meals, hotel stays, or other transportation. 

      https://www.businessinsider.com/southwest-airline-cancellations-will-reimburse-travelers-2022-12

      1. “At first, the airline blamed the week’s travel chaos only on the weather after an arctic blast caused low temperatures, strong winds, and snow across the country. ”

        Would that be the same weather that didn’t send any of Southwest Airlines’ rival carriers’ systems into major meltdown mode?

        Not very convincing,!

    2. The Brandon regime’s Transportation Secretary, whose sole qualification for his cabinet post is being a homosexual, will surely get to the bottom of this situation (no pun intended) and put things right for the flying public victimized by corporate greed & “shareholder value.” What happened to all the billions of taxpayer subsidies that got poured into Southwest during the scamdemic?

        1. The Wall Street Journal
          Business
          How Southwest Airlines Melted Down
          Airline executives and labor leaders point to inadequate technology systems as one reason why a brutal winter storm turned into a debacle
          Southwest Airlines canceled more than 13,000 flights after its inadequate technology turned a bad winter storm into a debacle.
          JIM LO SCALZO/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
          By Alison Sider
          Dec. 28, 2022 3:19 pm ET

          When Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV -5.16%decrease; red down pointing triangle) reassigns crews after flight disruptions, it typically relies on a system called SkySolver. This Christmas, SkySolver not only didn’t solve much, it also helped create the worst industry meltdown in recent memory.

          Airline executives and labor leaders point to inadequate technology systems, in particular SkySolver, as one reason why a brutal winter storm turned into a debacle. SkySolver was overwhelmed by the scale of the task of sorting out which pilots and flight attendants could work which flights, Southwest executives said. Crew schedulers instead had to comb through records by hand.

    3. If Southwest Airlines can’t afford to modernize their computer systems, maybe they should just shudder operations and let a 21st century company take on the business.

      1. Southwest Airlines’ post-Christmas meltdown thanks to ‘outdated IT’ systems, poor scheduling
        By David Meyer
        December 27, 2022 4:06pm Updated

        Southwest Airlines canceled another 2,600 flights Tuesday as the Dallas-based carrier continued to struggle to recover from the weekend’s weather impacts thanks to outdated computer systems and bad scheduling practices, insiders and experts said.

        While other airlines managed to get most of their flights off the ground after the weekend chaos, Southwest’s systems for managing flight bookings and employee placement have collapsed, according to reports.

        https://nypost.com/2022/12/27/the-real-reason-behind-southwest-airlines-post-christmas-meltdown/

        1. “You eventually reach a point where these quick fixes comeback and bite you in the keister, and now, fixing all those problems the right way is a Herculean task.”

          I guess that’s why God occasionally sends in a massive blizzard during peak holiday travel season. It’s a convenient reminder to airlines of when they can no longer procrastinate a system upgrade.

      2. modernize their computer systems

        The thing about doing that, is that it isn’t easy. I’m sure that a major portion of their system is custom made, and would require porting to the new system/OS.

        We have customers who are still ordering very pricey servers with our custom CPU, because it’s more cost and time effective to do that than to port their in house application it to the cloud. In fact, orders are steadily rising.

        Heck, IBM is still selling modern (faster) versions of its venerable mainframe.

        1. Without IBM Mainframes, everything would collapse. It’s not the hardware, it’s the software. 90% of all credit card transaction utilize IBM mainframes.
          https://ibmmainframes.com/references/a41.html
          71% of Fortune 500 companies use IBM mainframes.
          https://www.precisely.com/blog/mainframe/9-mainframe-statistics
          A better question would be what major industry/company/government/bank that relies on computers DOESN’T use an IBM mainframe somewhere in their systems.

          1. It’s not the hardware, it’s the software.

            I think this is something outsiders can’t wrap their heads around. There is a reason that well maintained legacy code is still in use. In many cases it has taken decades to debug it to the point where it’s nearly flawless, and it’s why IBM’s mainframes are guaranteed to be 100% backward compatible to the stone age. HP and Sun (Oracle) make similar guarantees with their flavors of UNIX: old binaries will run (though perhaps not all the way back to the 60’s)

        2. The thing about doing that, is that it isn’t easy. I’m sure that a major portion of their system is custom made, and would require porting to the new system/OS.

          Sure, for developers who are sitting at home in their jammies, pretending to work.

          1. Anyway, what Southwest is probably suffering from is what some call “technical debt”. What that term means is that over the years/decades problems were solved and improvements were made to code with quick and dirty fixes, the coding equivalent of chewing gum and bailing wire. You eventually reach a point where these quick fixes comeback and bite you in the keister, and now, fixing all those problems the right way is a Herculean task.

            A lot managers don’t like the idea of peer code reviews and fixing things the right way because it takes a lot of time and money. And since coders don’t stick around, they don’t care that their successors will eventually have to deal with a Gordian Knot to fix things, of course at their new jobs they will inherit someone else’s clusterf*ck. There’s a reason why coders like to work at a start up: no effed up legacy code to fix.

          2. no effed up legacy code to fix.

            Better yet — you get to create the effed up legacy code someone else will curse and have to fix someday!

          3. Better yet — you get to create the effed up legacy code someone else will curse and have to fix someday!

            Unless the start up folds. Then the code goes up in a puff of smoke.

          4. Unless the start up folds. Then the code goes up in a puff of smoke.

            Even then those assets are “sold off”, though I doubt the code is valuable to the purchaser vs any patents and such

        3. I understand the problem with updating outdated technology.

          The first corporation I worked for, beginning in the late 1980s, used a COBOL-based system dating back to the 1960s, I assume, when computing was done on massive mainframes and the PC was yet to be invented. I took a lot of coding courses in college, but none in COBOL, because it was already antiquated. But the firm where I started had never bit the bullet and invested in modernization of their valuation platform, so I soon found myself learning enough COBOL to get by in my job.

          The other problem is that not long after you invest in upgrading your system, the new one is already approaching obsolescence.

          1. COBOL is still in use on mainframes. In fact there is a shortage of COBOL programmers because there is no alternative right now to all of those old legacy mainframe programs. Without those COBOL programs, everything will stop. You can’t simply replace those programs with something else–there are literally millions of lines of code. And these systems are very complex. We’re not talking about Mickey Mouse apps that deliver groceries.

      3. When planning for my second career I read several horror stories about stress levels due to working in the shipping and/or transportation industry. Run Forrest, Run!

        1. I think it takes a special person to be an airline pilot. Granted, all the flight deck automation these days makes it harder to make a dumb mistake, but the unexpected can still happen and the difference between landing the bird vs. crashing it can boil down to having a very cool head and being able to think fast.

          But yeah, all those behind the scenes people (watch the documentary City in the Sky) can also have a very stressful time.

          I have had to get off an airplane more than once because it failed a diagnostic and the mechanic could not solve it in a timely manner and they had to get another airplane. One time I flew to London from Dumver on British Airways, which has a single flight a day. I found out that the prior day’s flight was still at the gate, because of a problem that took 24 hours to fix.

    1. I’ve been a elon fan for many years….but he should stick to rockets,digging tunnels and making ev’s. I hate politics and I don’t like people that like politics! Both sides are nasty people anymore!

      Why would anyone pay 36 billion for a broke A$$ company, never made never will…in the process he has lost well over 100 billion dollars…..stock down 70% this year. Crazy

        1. Is Lane the poster who used to brag about his Tesla and its “face melting acceleration”, or was that someone else?

          1. OneAgainstMany

            Consumed the Airbnb Kool-Aid and considered anyone who thought Michelle Obama was a man was crazy.

      1. I was under the impression that Musk is jabbed and has always supported LBGXYZ.

        Doubt it. In fact, I’d venture to guess that MOST billionaires did not get the jab. They’re not stupid. They’re not interested in being guinea pigs. That’s what the hoi polloi are for.

        1. Allow me to reframe that: IIRC, Musk claimed he and his family were jabbed. But I do agree with you that he, along with all other “people who matter”, are still pure bloods.

  13. ‘They’re saying it was what’s sometimes referred to as a ‘loan to own,’ says Adam Stein-Sapir of Pioneer Funding Group, a bankruptcy claim buyer based in New York. ‘You make a loan, but your intention, your expectation, is not that they’re just gonna pay you principal and interest over years and you’re gonna get all your money back one day. The intention of the loan was really to end up owning the property.’

    Loan to own is a New York specialty.

    1. Not 18 months ago people were making predictions that Zoom and TEAMS would make a serious dent in travel. I guess not. Or maybe not yet. We’re still working our way through two years of pent-up demand for tourism and seeing family. After that, we’ll see. I do think business travel will take a big hit, and business travel is where a lot of the profit comes from.

      1. At my work, with budget slashing and sawing the order of the day, business travel is not going to be common in ’23. Where we originally planned quarterly meets in different cities it now looks like twice max.

        I work at a fiscally conservative place in general FWIW.

      2. I’ve friends that fly them….holiday travel….leisure travel is low margin and will never be affected by zoom. Business travel that’s booked often times as last minute and most prefer the big seats is were the money is…and it will be affected by zoom/teams.

        1. A big reckoning is baked in for airlines, hotels, and other industries dependent on business travel. Now that everyone in the workforce has discovered that business meetings can for most purposes be conducted virtually, how is it going to pencil out to send business travelers to distant cities to accomplish what could have been done online for a fraction of the cost?

          1. how is it going to pencil out

            It used to be said that the shortest distance between two points is a phone line. This was an actual motto at Ma Bell.

            Somehow, that didn’t end the travel industry.

      3. In my experience, there are only two groups of people who travel for business: big wigs and those who are “customer facing”, and from what I hear many of those are using zoom more.

        Another problem is that many pilots chose to retire vs. getting jabbed. I suppose that could be solved in the US with H1-B visas.

        1. My impression is that business travel will be cut in half. I think the professional class will always want to go in person to year conferences to “network.”* And quarterly meetings might reduce to one yearly in-person meeting with the other three online. But most of the one-on-one stuff and probably all the last-minute stuff will be handled online.

          ———–
          *Translation — get drunk in hospitality suites.

          1. There’s a huge cohort of cheaters who specifically choose employment at firms where travel is mandatory in order to enable that adultery lifestyle. For them it’s like a fish needing to be in the water; they can’t live without it.

          2. For them it’s like a fish needing to be in the water; they can’t live without it.

            For a young executive who takes care of his body, has decent to good looks, and dresses to the nines in expensive suits and outerwear, it’s like shooting fish in a barrel. The panties just melt away.

          1. There are exceptions. Some people have to be onsite to fix things. Anyway, I used to travel 3-4 times a year. I haven’t traveled on the company’s dime in almost 5 years.

  14. Speaking of folks getting paid big bucks for making bad forecasts… it’s fine to be wrong, so long as you have lots of company.

    1. Yahoo Finance
      Wall Street’s 2022 stock market forecasts were way off. Here’s what they see in 2023: Morning Brief
      Julie Hyman
      Wed, December 28, 2022 at 3:00 AM PST·4 min read
      In this article:
      Wednesday, December 28, 2022
      Today’s newsletter is by Julie Hyman, anchor and correspondent at Yahoo Finance.

      We all have our little traditions to end a year.

      Some people make resolutions, or “best of” lists.

      I look back at stock market forecasts from the prior year.

      Part of Wall Street strategists’ job is to set targets for the S&P 500. And as equities limp toward the finish line for 2022, I wondered if anyone had seen the drop coming.

      The short answer is no.

      As of November 2021, the median of 12 forecasts was 4,825, according to Bloomberg. The highest was 5,300, from Brian Belski of BMO. The lowest was 4,400, from reliable bear Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley.

      With three trading days to go in 2022, the S&P 500 closed at 3,829.

      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-streets-2022-stock-market-forecasts-were-way-off-heres-what-they-see-in-2023-morning-brief-110021033.html

  15. Can we get some more content moderation around here?

    The amount of misnformation being posted is scary. Where’s Yoel Roth? I heard he’s looking for a job…

    1. If you’re looking for truth, there’s only one source..
      John 17:17
      It’s all misinformation and misdirection…
      Jeremiah 10:23

    2. Scary Poppins at the DHS’s abortive (for now) Ministry of Truth has flown her broom off to London for a new globalist-created gig battling “disinformation,” aka inconvenient truths. Maybe Greta can step up?

      1. St. Greta has served her purpose. The masses already believe in climate change and that huge sacrifices will have to be made.

          1. The Financial Times
            Commodities
            Big coal miners’ profits triple as demand surges
            Companies defy long-term decline with $97bn earnings bonanza in 2022
            Many countries that once pledged to quit coal have turned back to it as a reliable source of heat and power as energy security concerns became a priority after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
            Leslie Hook 2 hours ago

            The world’s largest coal mining companies tripled their profits in 2022 to reach a total of more than $97bn, defying expectations for an industry that was thought to be in terminal decline.

            As global demand for the fuel rose to record levels, total earnings from coal operations at the world’s 20 largest coal miners reached $97.7bn during the most recent 12-month period for which financial information is available, compared with $28.2bn during the same period a year earlier, according to Financial Times research and data from S&P Capital IQ.

            Many countries that once pledged to quit coal have turned back to it as a reliable source of heat and power as energy security concerns became a top priority following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

            The biggest money makers were Glencore, whose coal earnings were $13.2bn in the 12 months ending on June 30; China Shenhua, which made $12.2bn during that time; and BHP, which brought in $9.5bn, mainly from production of metallurgical coal.

            Just a year after the UN COP26 climate summit pledged to “phase down” coal, demand for the fossil fuel has instead grown, boosted by high gas prices and the European energy crisis. Global coal demand rose 1.2 per cent to reach a record high in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency.

            In 2022, the benchmark price for high-quality thermal coal in Europe was $295 on average — double the levels of the previous year, and nearly four times higher than the average price between 2010 and 2020, according to Argus Media.

            As a result, coal mining companies have experienced a huge and unexpected improvement in their fortunes.

    1. Don’t expect anyone in the White House to care. If someone asks the Haitian bobble head what they are going to do, she’ll just grab her notebook and leave.

      1. “Everything is working, Biden has put in the work, look these things take time, Trump left us with a mess, but Biden is putting in the work, and the border is secure, and just look he got Brittney Griner home, he can do anything, m kay?”

        1. Sadly, there are far too many people who believe that. The country could be burning up under 100% inflation and everyone would need to put bars on their windows and the bobbleheads would parrot the above. Because it has to work, even though it never will.

    1. So they are pushing globo homo in a hard core Islamic nation. While their gooberment might do it in exchange for more fighter jets, the Imams won’t be amused.

        1. This is what’s been going on for decades. The US is being looted by corrupt, parasitic politicians. Pelosi, McConnell and Co. are taking American citizens for a ride.

      1. “OK Mohamad and Akbul, when the lady tells you there are 57 genders, just smile and nod, or no fighter jet for you.”

  16. A reader sent these in:

    now vs then
    deflationists in meltdown

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1607732389891149826

    Hate to say, but we haven’t seen anything yet. Prior to the GFC, the number of bankruptcies was rising exponentially. Today, it remains at historical low levels. The tightening of financial conditions worldwide is setting the stage for significant credit events ahead.

    https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1607552393503473665

    $TSLA Tesla used-car price bubble pops, weighs on new-car demand

    https://twitter.com/OracleNYSE/status/1607772521885040641

    INVESTORS ARE THE MOST OVERWEIGHT U.S. BONDS SINCE 2008 rates up

    https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1607810510589952000

    I’ve seen things you people wouldn’t believe… Cars launched into space for the memes… Degens becoming millionaires from their basement and then giving it all back. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain… Time to die.

    https://twitter.com/coloradotravis/status/1607759919515860994

    Black holes are some of the heaviest objects in the universe weighing 2 x 10^30 Kg. This is almost as heavy as the size of the Tesla bag that Cathie Wood is holding.

    https://twitter.com/ParikPatelCFA/status/1607866582604169217

    The US Money Supply has fallen 1.7% over the last 8 months, the largest decline over a 8-month period on record (note: M2 data goes back to 1959).

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1607820223486525441

    US Home prices fell in October for the 4th consecutive month. The 4-month decline of -3% is the largest decline in a decade. When the last housing bubble peaked in July 2006, prices fell 27% nationally. The same decline today would only bring home prices back to Aug 2020 levels.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1607840226373689346

    Aussie Housing Prices – A Thread – As debate over the Aussie housing market continues, I think its important to approach it with a wider perspective. – Despite new listing volumes absolutely collapsing, price falls remain large and are reaccelerating in some capitals.

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1607887587569696770

    – While price falls have remained orderly so far, prices are falling significantly faster than the U.S housing market during the global financial crisis recession. – With rapidly falling levels of new mortgage credit, further weakness in the immediate future is likely.

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1607888232867594240

    CarDealershipGuy

    Dealer in my DMs just shutdown and sold all his cars at a $100K loss

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1607898258248024067

    Please tell me this isn’t @ElonMusk (Tesla’s & Twitter’s CEO)… 🤦‍♂️

    https://twitter.com/AltcoinDailyio/status/1607573104011915264

    Lance Lambert

    Look at that slope. The home price rollover in Seattle 🏡📉👇

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1607907261174751235

    Gravity is catching up to Canadian housing

    https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1607916164377903108

    Big boomer vibes

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1607766701180846089

    72% of recent homebuyers said they had regrets about their purchase, and 30% said that they rushed the decision. 36% of the buyers made an offer on the home without even seeing it in person. The cracks are starting to show…

    https://twitter.com/GrahamStephan/status/1607698004378779649

    “The region’s median sale price has dropped almost 9% since its peak of $435,000 in June, but it would take a much bigger blow to get it back to March 2020′s median price of $283,000” We are headed for mean reversion

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1607755436018507776

    This single listing perfectly sums up the seller mentality of the 2022 DFW housing market. Lists too high, refuses to cut price, pivots to a rental. It’s now spent 2 months vacant without a tenant. Tick tock…

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1607780364503896065

    Over the weekend, Elon Musk warned his followers not to use margin when investing in stocks. He was no doubt predicting the imminent wipeout of his cargo cult. “Be careful trading on margin”

    https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1607774515882237953

    This is what passes muster at the @nytimes

    https://twitter.com/DoombergT/status/1607560616977260546

    Italy bond yields are approaching 5% now that the ECB is not as supportive. The Greek debt crisis 10 years ago prompted the ECB to launch their “anything it takes” policy to save the Euro. Italy and Greece can’t afford these rates long term without causing a Euro crisis.

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1607728097725644803

    Too late … recession already baked in. 😢

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1607766743774109697

    Be it the South Sea Company, Dutch tulips, http://Pets.com, Dogecoin or #TSLA — all asset prices bubbles follow the same trajectory. It’s a historical universal. When in the mania, deniers cry “It’s different this time” But it never is & history always has the last word.

    https://twitter.com/menlobear/status/1607806238267699200

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    Got mark-to-market? *Chicago pensions’ assets cover ~25% what’s owed v avg US state & local ~70% *Unfunded liability $33.7B >2x annual city budget *Since Sept mayor sent RECORD $512M earmarked for later payments to not force asset sales to raise cash

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1607747536638611456

    I get it. I’m a Texas native living in Idaho. We had the same thing with Covid refugees up here, or such was the narrative. A $600k median house in podunk Boise made absolutely zero logic with a median household income of $70k, and now it’s unraveling fast.

    https://twitter.com/grapedrank5150/status/1607829214241390592

    The countries with highest debt in the euro area…and rate hikes have just started.

    https://twitter.com/dlacalle_IA/status/1607829892158132226

    Tesla $TSLA is giving us a front-row view of “the madness of crowds” and the exuberant selling pressure that can come from fear & psychological market dynamics.

    https://twitter.com/CalebFranzen/status/1607841870943592448

    John Wake

    YIKES! Check your home’s Zestimate value. Mine is down 18% since May! Rent Zestimate is down $500/month since June. (I wonder why I haven’t seen this mentioned in any Zillow press releases. 😉)

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1607853260450430976

    $TSLA gets hit by rising rates twice… Not only because they’re a “tech” company but unlike Google, FB, Microsoft, Amazon… most of their customers need to take a car loan

    https://twitter.com/johnny_33/status/1607854133192851456

    Tesla stopped reporting its Autopilot safety numbers online. Why?

    https://twitter.com/russ1mitchell/status/1607750618575429634

    The Kobeissi Letter

    Year-to-Date Performance:
    1. $META: -66%
    2. $NVDA: -53%
    3. $NFLX: -52%
    4. $AMZN: -51%
    5. $GOOGL: -40%
    6. $AAPL: -29%
    This has to be the first time in history where the biggest stocks are casually down 50%+ and there are barely any headlines. Sentiment is all over the place.

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1607861449501679616

    Would you believe that Berkshire Hathaway is now worth two Teslas? That Tesla was “worth” more than two Berkshires a year ago marked peak insanity, for this cycle at least. Tesla has now dropped $1 trillion in market cap, and counting. It’s 93% below ARK’s 4-year expected price.

    https://twitter.com/ChrisBloomstran/status/1607864462102478848

    Guy from high school who became a realtor in 2007, financed a new truck at $30k over MSRP in 2021, and daytrades Solana just posted on Instagram that he bought $10k of Tesla stock today. I have updated my TSLA price target to $3/share.

    https://twitter.com/ChrisJBakke/status/1607865091592159232

    Redfin says home prices will fall 4% in 2023. The Nat. Assoc. of Realtors says -0.3%. Into a recession, amid layoffs, and with required income to purchase up 64.6%?? I’d be stunned if home prices get through 2023 with a low single-digit decline. Affordability is out the window.

    https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1607872956020948995

    *CATHIE WOOD’S FLAGSHIP ARK INNOVATION ETF ENDS AT NEW FIVE-YEAR LOW IN 80% DROP FROM RECORD

    https://twitter.com/Investingcom/status/1607877931950538753

    The relative strength of the dow jones vs nasdaq is leading higher bond yields as investors price in stickier than expected inflation. bonds will meltdown..

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1607771617907834882

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    “Property prices are as much as 50% above what a median household can afford.”

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1607732437643325441

    Excellent data confirming what many of us speculated about the lack of for sale listings alongside a rise in for rent listings helping to prop up home prices, but add downward pressure to rents recently

    https://twitter.com/TaylorAMarr/status/1607803276925222918

    Car Repos are on the rise – surpassing 2019 levels – as record-high monthly payments plague debtors. Soaring car prices left consumers w/ more debt for the same cars over last 2yrs. Yet Another sign of the ‘healthy’ consumer going into 2023 as debt-deflation risks rise.

    https://twitter.com/RadicalAdem/status/1607806480392269824

    John Wake

    Made a new graphic of Case-Shiller data showing 1-month price change. For most metros, July was the first month with a price fall in a long time. All Case-Shiller metros now have falling prices. Next few months are key. Check out your metro at link.

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1607806301681385472

    This is where Elon and his brother began selling billions of $TSLA. Nailed the top to the week. Now down 72% after telling his fans to keep buying, as he kept dumping it.

    https://twitter.com/Stephen_Geiger/status/1607750445765640192

    Ron Butler
    @ronmortgageguy
    The Horrible Outcome of 6.95% HELOCS. Home Equity Lines Of Credit Squeeze The System. Leverage is a thing in Real Estate Investing. Borrowing Down Payment to but a Rental house. BRRRR was the most talked about thing in RE in 2021. It was all the rage among RE Investors

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1605216962006523905

    Ron Butler
    @ronmortgageguy
    Well, NOT good if everyone was hoping for Zero increase. Oh, and worst possible news: leaves the possibility of ANOTHER 25 bps increase in rates very much in play. And if BoC Prime hits 4.75% in March that’s some ugly stuff for Prime Rate borrowers. Stake through the heart ugly

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1605577371070840832

    Ron Butler
    @ronmortgageguy
    What Do These 3 Countries Have In Common? Other than a 24 month period of insanely low mortgage rates they have one key similarity. Rich people from other countries LOVE to store their money in these 3 countries Real Estate. I mean REALLY LOVE buying residential RE in these 3

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1605956741673455617

    Brainwashed is when you can’t make ends meet but still support a $1.7T omnibus & hundreds of billions to fight a war in a country you can’t point to on a map.

    https://twitter.com/SallyMayweather/status/1605980845495435270

    109 years ago today, the Federal Reserve was created by a cabal of elite financial interests. Since then, the dollar has depreciated by more than 96%.

    https://twitter.com/SallyMayweather/status/1606273506940813312

    Before you make fun of crypto investors who bought at the top you should try walking a mile in their shoes

    https://twitter.com/ParikPatelCFA/status/1607431381726158850

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    Distress will deepen quickly. The tax community has already warned that 2023 income tax refunds will shrink. The opportunity to catch up on delinquent debt will thus be stunted in Q1 as layoffs surge & will be a wicked combination for stretched households

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1607415960113217536

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    Always good to check data against other sources. “In Nov, 6.75% of subprime loans were severely delinquent, increasing from 6.69%. The subprime severe delinquency rate was 158 bps higher than a year ago & Nov rate was highest in data series back to 2006”

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1607420290258161669

    yep: “The lower TSLA goes the more stock Musk has to sell. He’s getting margin calls for his leveraged TSLA shares—he used shares to get loans. Those loans are contingent on TSLA maintaining a certain value. So when TSLA goes lower, he’s forced to sell or put up more collateral.”

    https://twitter.com/webster_desmond/status/1607482093453320193

    They’re soooooo close. 🧐 Social media with free speech is waking up a lot of people.

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1607426007287627776

    There will be books written about the greed and folly that’s been created in the last few years. The 80s have nothing on us!

    https://twitter.com/AyeshaTariq/status/1607351160821747712

    Real estate in 🇨🇦 is such a fake world!
    – friend quit his 120k IT job & moved to RE in 2020
    – forwarded me his resume last week as he wants to return
    – Now I see his insta story that last night he was awarded realtor of the year award. He did 1 transaction in 2022
    Wtf 😂

    https://twitter.com/CanIndian_Bro/status/1607422137651892224

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    I was wondering who would be first to cite this excellent research. Well done. I cited these data in #WeeklyQuill @Quillintel
    last summer. Pandemic further amplified inflation of FICO scores because government suspended the household credit cycle via forbearance in various forms.

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1607453111584440321

    Steve Saretsky

    As home prices fall, down payment requirements are falling too.

    https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/1607465203201101825

    European Central Bank

    As inflation is expected to stay above 2% for some time, we will raise interest rates for as long as necessary to bring inflation back to target, Executive Board member @Isabel_Schnabel tells @FAZ_NET. This requires moving rates into restrictive territory

    https://twitter.com/ecb/status/1606545549477302273

    Lance Lambert

    Update: Zillow walks back its previous view, says home prices are still falling nationally. “Home Price Declines Resumed in November As Buyers Await Better Deals” writes Zillow.

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1607408791326187520

    8/12 And, w/ Nov. 2022 listings with pending sales down -35.7% YoY, it seems active listings are being depressed by potential sellers keeping inventory off the market, in hopes of a “magical” return to 2020’s near-0% interest rate environment, as well as new reckless Fed…

    https://twitter.com/GordonJohnson19/status/1607378175696470018

    12/12… no need for a mortgage), & sellers are beginning to “accept this reality”. Net-net, it seems U.S. home prices need to fall further, which bodes ill for those who think we are NOT in the beginning innings of housing bust 2.0.

    https://twitter.com/GordonJohnson19/status/1607378183615090688

    $TSLA suspended car production at its Shanghai plant on Saturday, extending a planned eight-day production halt at its largest worldwide plant by car output, according to people familiar with the matter. The halt follows a recent slowdown in global demand for Tesla vehicles — WSJ

    https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1607354245661036545

    National home prices have collapsed 10.4% in just a few months

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1607489336890781697

    Lance Lambert

    Home price growth, as measured by @zillow, is down on a year-over-year basis in these markets:
    Minot, ND
    Fairbanks, AK
    Coeur d’Alene, ID
    Fernley, NV
    Boise, ID
    Gardnerville Ranchos, NV
    Shelton, WA
    Grants Pass, OR
    Carson City, NV
    Ukiah, CA
    Red Bluff, CA
    San Francisco
    Austin, TX

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1607496580164100101

    “The implication of this chart is that either Australian house prices will decline or incomes will rise in relation to one another. If household incomes themselves were to decline then this would imply a very significant decline in house prices”

    https://twitter.com/CharlieMunger00/status/1607488915744894976

    US consumer sentiment is at the lowest level in more than 50 years… (Univ of Michigan). But the govt says: “The economy is strong… everything is fine…” 🔥🔥🔥 Fed keeps raising rates heading into a recession.🤨

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1607417434033504261

    CarDealershipGuy

    We’re getting closer to a big wave of auto repossessions. November auto loan data shows a *very notable* jump in percent of Deep Subprime borrowers that are 60 days past due 🥴 (8.2%, to be exact!)
    Here’s the breakdown:

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1607393616237891584

    So now you’ve become a sellout shill praising the very people who caused this crisis. Both disgusting and sad.

    https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1607355392861822976

    Lyn Alden

    The 2-year yield is below the Fed funds rate now.

    https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1605970518661906432

    Adding Zelensky as a dependent on my tax return this year. Seems fair.

    https://twitter.com/OfficeOfMike/status/1607000847946518530

    The vast majority of business owners we’ve talked to over the past year have mentioned plans to terminate their office building leases and downsize substantially or go fully remote. We’re nowhere near the bottom on commercial RE…

    https://twitter.com/OccupytheFeds/status/1598845441554030592

    For those of you wondering how applicable this ratio actually is. Over the past decade the a mortgage on the median U.S home could be payed off with 17-22% of household income. And that is generally done with 0 chance of rates ever rising.

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1607258896451895297

    A lot of people have asked me for this chart. TRREB saw 26 listings containing “power of sale” in the vendor name in December. It’s not a big number, but as you can see below, it’s a meaningful deviation from the previous trend. At this rate Q1 & Q2 2023 will be pretty ugly.

    https://twitter.com/daniel_foch/status/1606865049095753729

    POWER of SALE of the Day: Power of Sales are accelerating 🔥 Six in 24 hours, including 3 from One Private Lender.

    https://twitter.com/ShaziGoalie/status/1606260166080417792

    1. ‘Home price growth, as measured by @zillow, is down on a year-over-year basis in these markets’

      That’s a lot of sh$tholes!

      1. That’s a lot of sh$tholes!

        Have you ever seen Fernley, NV? It makes Kingman, AZ look like an international destination.

    2. I’ve seen things you people wouldn’t believe… Cars launched into space for the memes…

      FWIW, when the first Falcon Heavy was test launched, it required a payload. Such a test payload is usually something like a small block of concrete. Musk thought he’d be clever and launch his car instead, which was a clever publicity stunt

    3. “When the last housing bubble peaked in July 2006, prices fell 27% nationally.”

      The strawman claim that the 2006 episode was somehow distinct from the present one lives on. But anyone who paid close attention realizes we are in the same bubble, which was propped up by over a decade of Quantitative Easing by the Fed after it started to deflate in the 2007-2009 period.

      Now that Quantitative Tightening has supplanted Quarantine Easing, it seems quite predictable that the bubble deflation that commenced over 2007-2009 might resume any day now.

    4. This has to be the first time in history where the biggest stocks are casually down 50%+ and there are barely any headlines. Sentiment is all over the place.

      But plenty of hoopla over FTX.

    5. Look at that slope. The home price rollover in Seattle

      Sure, but just look how high the prices still are as compared to even a couple years ago. That was like a parabolic blow-off top. Prices in Seattle were in an absolutely massive bubble in 2018. They need to fall like 75% or something to even approach historic norms.

      The reason I bring this up is because it seems like a lot of armchair analysts and knifecatchers like to judge current asset prices based upon their respective bubble peaks. This is a fool’s errand. The way to value any of these assets is to compare them to their historical norms, not ridiculous blow-off tops.

      1. The way to value any of these assets is to compare them to their historical norms, not ridiculous blow-off tops.

        True, but what if the bankers decide that “moderate” inflation is an acceptable price to pay to keep housing unaffordable?

        1. True, but what if the bankers decide that “moderate” inflation is an acceptable price to pay to keep housing unaffordable?

          There’s no pivot coming. Your shanty price is crashing.

          1. At this point I don’t know what to think. If bankers were serious about inflation, they would have raised rates a lot more by now. I don’t think there will be a “pivot” back to where we were earlier this year. If they did that we would go full Argentina.

          2. If bankers were serious about inflation, they would have raised rates a lot more by now.

            They just hiked rates the fastest in the history of the FED, even faster than Volcker. What more do you expect?

    6. “Home price growth, as measured by @zillow, is down on a year-over-year basis in these markets:

      Coeur d’Alene, ID

      Boise, ID”

      Imagine cashing in all your California equity, buying in Boise in 2021, and in another year or two being underwater when Boise has crashed 50+%. So you do jingle mail and try to move back to California, but now all that sweet equity is gone. What is an equity locust to do?

  17. “the progress we have made on constructing additional quick, move-in homes, ”

    Just what every homebuyer wants to hear…

  18. “Despite students saying the building was predatory toward them”

    One of the buildings I used to work in tried to kill my boss, twice. It was old and possibly haunted. It has since been renovated.

  19. Lead article on NPR now.

    It’s not too late to get a COVID booster — especially for older adults (12/28/2022):

    “Only 15% of people eligible for the COVID booster shot that targets the omicron variant have gotten it — a rate that is even lower than the perennially disappointing rates for flu vaccine uptake.

    There are a lot of ways to combat vaccine hesitancy, including focusing on misinformation or politicization or trust in public health.”

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2022/12/28/1145339626/its-not-too-late-to-get-a-covid-booster-especially-for-older-adults

    Misinformation LMFAO@ these genocidal globalists. BTW where is Yuval Harari? Haven’t heard much from him lately. He is an “expert” on depopulation.

    1. “Whitman snapped up the two-bedroom, two-bath, 2,300-square-foot home in 2018 for $6,500,000. She listed it for her purchase price in 2020, before taking it off the market a few months later. It’s now available for $5,495,000.”

      Meh… it’s just a little over $1 million in real dollar terms, after considering inflation, transaction costs, and likely further price reductions needed to attract a buyer.

      ‘Tis a mere flesh wound to a tech billionaire.

      1. 1-$5,495,000/$6,500,000 = 15.5% loss before inflation and transaction costs, if she manages to sell at her list price.

    1. Tech
      Crypto exchange Kraken to shutter its Japan operations after global layoffs
      Published Wed, Dec 28 2022 6:34 AM EST
      Updated 5 Hours Ago
      Ryan Browne
      Key Points
      – Crypto exchange Kraken said Wednesday that it will stop operations in Japan next month, blaming a “weak crypto market globally.”
      – The company will deregister from Japan’s Financial Services Agency on Jan. 31, 2023.
      – Kraken has been in cost-cutting mode lately. On Nov. 30, the firm slashed 1,100 jobs, or 30% of its workforce.

      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/28/crypto-exchange-kraken-to-close-japan-operations-after-mass-job-cuts.html

  20. Has that Santa Claus rally almost arrived on Wall Street? My calendar is running very short on days.

    If Santa doesn’t come soon, I sense a major dips buying opportunity coming in early 2023 for anyone who isn’t already wiped out by inflation, job loss, or investment losses.

    1. Updated Wed, Dec 28 2022 4:05 PM EST
      Dow closes more than 350 points lower in broad selloff, Apple tumbles 3%
      Tanaya Macheel
      Alex Harring
      First half of 2023 will be choppy, says Verdance Capital’s Megan Horneman

      Stocks fell on Wednesday as traders looked to the end of a losing year and braced themselves for 2023.

      The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 366.55 points, or 1.1%, to 32,875.01. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% to 3,783.22, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.35% to 10,213.29.

      Apple weighed heavily on the Dow as it broke a key level and fell to another 52-week low.

      Energy was the biggest laggard in the S&P 500 as oil prices slipped. Marathon Oil and EQT were among the notable losers in the index. Meanwhile, Southwest Airlines continued its slide as it continued to cancel flights amid severe winter weather conditions. The shares fell more than 5%.

      “Stocks finally clawed into the green in unison, but it didn’t hold,” said said Louis Navellier, founder and chief investment officer of growth investing firm Navellier & Associates. “On low volume, the market is trying its best to keep its head above water after a disappointing start to the official Santa Claus rally. It’s a bit of reversion to the mean as sectors hit hardest are seeing some bottom fishing.”

      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/27/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

      1. “…after a disappointing start to the official Santa Claus rally.”

        Keep drawing on the hopes and dreams of greater fools, and maybe you can suck in a few more muppets before the close of a very bad year on Wall Street.

    2. Yahoo Finance
      No Santa Claus rally in sight as stocks round out grim 2022: What to know this week
      Wall Street’s hopes will be high for year-end gains to offer markets some reprieve after a vicious December.
      Alexandra Semenova
      Sun, December 25, 2022 at 4:00 AM PST·5 min read
      The S&P 500 historically underperforms in January and over the following year when there is no year-end Santa Claus Rally prior. (Credit: Adam Turnquist, Chief Technical Strategist, LPL Financial)

      When investors return from a long weekend Tuesday, hopes will be high for a Santa Claus Rally – a seasonal rise in the stock market that occurs at the end of December. But with selling pressures remaining in place over fears about a looming recession, the favorable season pattern may take this year off.

      The Santa Claus Rally is typically defined as the last five trading days of the year and first two of the new year, with Yale Hirsch, creator of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, coining the term back in 1972.

      During this period, the S&P 500 has historically churned out an average gain of 1.3% going back to 1950, according to data from LPL Financial. This compares to a 0.2% average return for all rolling seven-day returns.

      More importantly, the Santa Claus Rally is often seen as an indicator for future market performance. The S&P 500 has historically underperformed in January and over the following year when a year-end rally failed to unfold, LPL Financial indicated.

      Yale Hirsch even prophesied: “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”

      “It’s not too late for the Santa Claus rally, but unfortunately positive inflation data has been overshadowed by the Fed’s tough language and the upcoming recession that they’ve orchestrated with their aggressive rate hikes,” Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer of Independent Advisor Alliance said in a note.

      With the year nearing an end, 2022 is so far on pace for its worst annual performance since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. It will also mark the end of three consecutive years of gains for the stock market, and a dramatic comedown from 2021, which saw the S&P 500 return nearly 27%.

      Much of that is owed to the historic actions of global central banks, which have raised interest rates in lockstep to rein in the highest inflation in decades after a period of extensive fiscal stimulus. The U.S. Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by a cumulative 4.25% this year, the most since 1980, while signaling that further hikes were likely in the year ahead.

      After central banks delivered their final increases of the year last week, equity markets experienced their worst ever exodus, notching outflows of nearly $42 billion, per figures from Bank of America, Citigroup, and Barclays, which each cited EPFR Global data.

      Looking ahead, there may not be much upside for equity investors next year, with monetary policymakers around the world asserting firmly that they are certain to press on with tightening financial conditions next year until price stability is firmly restored — a reality that has many of Wall Street’s biggest names bracing for a long road to nowhere for U.S. stocks.

      Last week, veteran hedge fund manager David Tepper said he was “leaning short on the equity markets” over concerns rising interest rates will further batter stocks.

      “I think the upside/downside just doesn’t make sense to me when I have so many central banks telling me what they are going to do,” the founder and president of firm Appaloosa Management said Thursday in an interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box.

      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-short-trading-week-ahead-holidays-rates-recession-120033858.html

    3. Cryptocurrencies
      Bitcoin Falls as Hopes for Santa Rally Fade. Crypto Traders Fear a ‘Serious Leg Down.’
      By Jack Denton
      Dec. 28, 2022 5:29 am ET
      Bitcoin is changing hands at less than a quarter of its late-2021 all-time high.
      Dreamstime

      Bitcoin (BTCUSD –1.03%) and other cryptocurrencies slipped Wednesday. Hopes that digital assets will benefit from a Santa Claus rally were fading as crypto traders braced for another leg down amid choppy action during the quiet holiday period.

      The price of Bitcoin has shed 1.5% over the past 24 hours to $16,650, heading toward the bottom of the range between $16,500 and $17,00 in which it has traded for more than a month. The largest crypto is well above the $15,500 two-year lows hit last month amid panic selling around exchange FTX’s collapse, but has failed to hold onto any short-term gains above $17,000, let alone a recent brief spike above $18,000.

      “Trading volume for Bitcoin has fallen off a cliff, and it’s hard not to expect another serious leg down in the market,” said Ganesh Swami, the CEO of blockchain data group Covalent. “Most traders are positioning for this, it seems, and new money flowing into the market likely won’t happen at scale until the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate hikes.”

      Even the 24/7 world of crypto looks to be experiencing the type of quiet trading that characterizes financial markets during the holiday period, which can exacerbate volatility amid low volumes. 

      Cryptos were shaky on Wednesday just like stocks, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 similarly seeing uncertain trading over the past day. Equities and digital assets have become firmly correlated in 2022 amid a tough macro backdrop of high inflation, rising interest rates, and recession risks.

      Crypto traders have been holding out hope for a Santa rally, which describes the U.S. stock market’s tendency to rise in the final five trading days of a year and the first couple sessions into the new year. This year’s window began last Friday, on Dec. 23, and will run through Jan 4. Bitcoin has edged down from $16,870 since the beginning of that window, which is altogether not very much in the turbulent world of digital assets.

      https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crypto-markets-today-51672223353

      1. “Crypto Traders Fear a ‘Serious Leg Down.’”

        Some people just can’t get enough punishment to quell their masochistic desires.

        1. Did you see Mark Cuban bashing gold and hyping BitCON recently? It was hilarious. You could just feel the anger oozing from his comments. I’d bet he was a late adopter and has experienced heavy losses. Just like his buddy “Mr. Wonderful,” these clowns got taken for a ride.

          1. There is no sympathy from my end for self-entitled degenerate gamblers who lost their shirts in the crypto ice age.

          2. PS I couldn’t pick Mark Cuban out of a lineup of suspects. The amount of time I spend watching investment experts on teevee is literally zero.

        2. The Sam Bankman-Fried-backed crypto Solana has lost nearly all its value this year and is still crashing as key projects bail
          Phil Rosen
          Dec 28, 2022, 7:36 AM
          Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of FTX and Alameda Research

          – Solana, once praised as a viable rival for Ethereum, has tumbled almost 70% since the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s empire, and is down 94% in 2022.
          – The token was heavily backed by Bankman-Fried, and his companies held large positions on their books.
          – The disgraced crypto founder said over the summer that Solana was the most underrated cryptocurrency.

          https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-collapse-crypto-solana-alameda-markets-investing-2022-12

      2. So long as babes in cryptoland don’t reach a consensus opinion that the market value of Bitcoin is $0, HODLers should be just fine.

        1. First Mover Asia: Bitcoin Retreats Further Into the Gloom
          The largest crypto by market capitalization dropped below $16.5K at one point on Wednesday.
          ALSO: CoinDesk research analyst George Kaloudis ranks his top five industry annoyances with FTX topping the list.
          By James Rubin
          AccessTimeIcon Dec 28, 2022 at 4:01 p.m. PST
          Updated Dec 28, 2022 at 5:49 p.m. PST
          CDCROP: Red arrows pointing down falling drop (Getty Images)
          Bitcoin continued its downtrend of recent days. (Getty Images)

          Good morning. Here’s what’s happening:

          Prices: Bitcoin, ether and most other major cryptocurrencies spent Wednesday in the red.

          Insights: In this last week of 2022, First Mover Asia is revisiting a few of CoinDesk’s (CD) most noteworthy columns. In his latest Crypto Long and Short newsletter, CD Research Analyst George Kaloudis considered five of the most annoying events and trends in 2022. Unsurprisingly, topping his list, Kaloudis wrote of his anger at FTX.

          Another Gloomy Day for Bitcoin

          Bitcoin added another dollop of gloom to an already gloomy year on Wednesday.

          The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was recently down a percentage point over the past 24 hours to trade just above $16,500. BTC has been clinging closer to $17,000 since mid-December amid market concerns about the latest macroeconomic uncertainties and the increased likelihood of the U.S. central bank adding to its recent diet of interest rate hikes.

          In an interview with CoinDesk TV’s First Mover program, Brent Xu, founder and CEO of cross-chain DeFi hub Umee, said that markets seem destined to continue their current negativity well into 2023. “Markets are going to bottom out around Q2 to Q3,” Xu said. “We’re going to see another six to 12 months of negative sentiment, possibly 18 months.”

          https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/12/29/first-mover-asia-bitcoin-retreats-further-into-the-gloom/

          1. BTC at $16,500 is not negative.

            BTC at $16.50 is not negative.

            BTC at $0 is not negative.

            All three examples are nonnegative.

    4. Is there at least cause to hope for a Santa Claus rally in the SPAC space, given the beat down the sector received in 2022?

      1. SPAC boom ends in frenzy of liquidation
        Surprise tax bill, deal drought cause a rush to unwind before year-end.
        wsj 4 min read
        Updated: 26 Dec 2022, 08:42 AM IST Amrith Ramkumar, The Wall Street Journal
        Many SPACs have said they would wind down, hurting backers such as venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya.
        Photo: Reuters

        During the boom in blank-check companies, their creators couldn’t launch them fast enough. Now they are rushing to liquidate their creations before the end of the year, marking an ugly conclusion to the SPAC frenzy.

        With few prospects for deals soon and a surprise tax bill looming next year, special-purpose acquisition companies are closing at a rate of about four a day this month, nearly the same pace they were being launched when the sector peaked early last year.

        Roughly 70 special-purpose acquisition companies have liquidated and returned money to investors since the start of December. That is more than the total number of SPAC liquidations in the market’s history, according to data provider SPAC Research. SPAC creators have lost more than $600 million on liquidations this month and more than $1.1 billion this year, the data show.

        https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/spac-boom-ends-in-frenzy-of-liquidation-11671969722855.html

    5. 2 minute read
      December 28, 2022 3:32 PM PST
      Last Updated an hour ago
      Musk tells Tesla workers not to be ‘bothered by stock market craziness’
      Reuters
      Tesla Inc CEO Elon Musk walks next to a screen showing an image of Tesla Model 3 car during an opening ceremony for Tesla China-made Model Y program in Shanghai
      January 7, 2020. REUTERS/Aly Song/File Photo

      Dec 28 (Reuters) – Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) Chief Executive Elon Musk told employees that they should not be “bothered by stock market craziness” after the company’s shares fell nearly 70% this year on jitters over softening demand for electric vehicles and Musk’s distraction with running Twitter.

      https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/musk-tells-tesla-workers-not-be-bothered-by-stock-market-craziness-2022-12-28/

    6. Stock Market Today
      Dow Jones, Nasdaq Break Key Levels As Apple Skids, Tesla Ends Dive; What To Do Now
      ED CARSON 07:16 PM ET 12/28/2022

      Dow Jones futures rose slightly after hours, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The stock market suffered further losses Wednesday as rising Treasury yields, Apple iPhone woes and soaring China Covid cases added to selling pressure on the major indexes.

      The Nasdaq is near its bear market low, setting its worst close in over two years. The Dow Jones undercut a key level.

      Apple (AAPL) fell again, setting a fresh bear low. AAPL stock is in danger of falling below a $2 trillion valuation. Tesla (TSLA), which also set another bear market low, rose modestly. But that only trimmed a steep weekly loss.

      https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-breaks-key-level-nasdaq-sets-bear-closing-low-as-apple-skids-tesla-ends-dive/

    7. Markets
      DOW 32,875.71 -1.10%
      S&P 500 3,783.22 -1.20%
      NASDAQ 10,213.29 -1.35%

      Fear & Greed Index
      Wall Street’s dirty secret: It’s terrible at forecasting stocks
      By Nicole Goodkind, CNN
      Published 7:24 AM EST, Wed December 28, 2022

      New York CNN — 

      December is a month full of market predictions for the year to come. Everyone, from economists to analysts to grocers, seems to have a strong feeling about how stocks will behave going forward.

      Here’s the thing: They’re almost always wrong.

      What’s happening: Last year, Goldman Sachs analysts predicted that the S&P 500 would close out 2022 at 5,100 points. Morgan Stanley predicted a more bearish 4,400. The S&P 500 closed on Tuesday at 3,829.

      No major analysts predicted last December that this year would (likely) be the worst for US stocks since 2008, that oil prices would shoot from $70 to $130 and then careen back to $70, and that the Federal Reserve would announce four straight historic three-quarter point interest rate hikes.

      Geopolitical chaos, global pandemics and extreme weather events have created unexpected and outsized head and tailwinds – creating extremely turbulent rides for markets.

      “As they take stock of this year, investors should strike a certain sense of humility as they peer into next,” wrote Christopher Smart, chief global strategist at Barings in a recent note. “They may take some consolation that outside US intelligence circles, almost no one expected a Russian invasion last December. But that will be small consolation amid difficult markets and evanescent returns.”

      https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/28/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

    8. Oh no… don’t tell me that even the housing market is starting to get in the way of the Santa Claus rally! It’s beginning to look a lot like 2008.

      1. Stock Market Data:
        Stocks Lose Steam After Dismal Housing Data
        Markets hinted at the potential start of a Santa Claus rally at the open before quickly turning lower.
        [stock market chart with bar line going lower]
        By Karee Venema
        published 3 hours ago

        Some early Wednesday gains sparked hope that markets might just get a Santa Claus rally after all. Any optimism was quickly dashed, however, as the major market indexes turned lower in light trading after the latest housing data fanned fears of a potential recession in the new year.

        Looking at the economic data, the National Association of Realtors morning said that pending home sales were down 4% month-over-month in November, marking their sixth straight decline. “The November level of pending homes sales plummeted close to pandemic lows as the housing market cools,” says Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “As a leading indicator for the residential real estate market, low pending home sales should inform investors that we have not likely seen the bottom.” 

        And it wasn’t just the dismal housing data that had stocks reversing lower today. “The market appears to be exhausted, understandably, no longer expecting a large technical rally and just hoping to get to Friday afternoon without any further meaningful losses,” says Louis Navellier, chairman and founder of Navellier & Associates. “Most of the year’s major uncertainties: China COVID, the war in Ukraine, tight energy supplies, and hawkish central banks, will be waiting for us on the other side.”

        https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/stock-market-today-122822-stocks-lose-steam-after-dismal-housing-data

    9. To anyone who feels my efforts to consolidate Everything Bubble collapse news for today’s readers have fallen short, I sincerely apologize. It’s quite challenging to drink from a fire hose.

    10. The Motley Fool
      Have $1,000? 2 Cathie Wood Stocks to Buy Right Now
      By Rachel Warren – Dec 28, 2022 at 10:30AM
      Key Points
      – The market has beaten growth stocks to the ground, but this could be a golden opportunity for some investors.
      – Zoom remains a conferencing software giant.
      – Shopify is building out its fulfillment network to set itself up for future growth.

      Investing in innovation isn’t dead.

      Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood made a name for herself by delivering robust returns for investors over the years. She focused on innovative growth companies that are disrupting both existing and emerging markets. While many of the stocks her funds favor have seen serious declines over the past year — and such stocks may not be ideal for every investor — those who have a long-term investment time horizon and the appropriate aptitude for risk tolerance can find an abundance of compelling stock picks among the lot. 

      Today, I’m going to talk about two of Cathie Wood’s most widely held stocks that the market has seriously discounted over the past year but which still possess strong underlying businesses that can sustain durable growth. If you have $1,000 to invest in stocks right now, here’s why you may want to take a second look at powerhouse companies Zoom (ZM -0.15%) and Shopify (SHOP -2.25%).

      https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/28/have-1000-2-cathie-wood-stocks-to-buy-right-now/

        1. Yahoo
          ARK Innovation: Will the Meltdown Ever End?
          John Engle
          Tue, December 27, 2022 at 1:59 PM PST·5 min read

          After a very rough 2021, investors in Catherine Wood (Trades, Portfolio)’s ARK Investment Management and its ETFs were hoping the firm could turn things around this year. Alas, this was not meant to be, as 2022 has proven even worse. Every single one of Arks nine exchange-traded funds has posted severe losses this year. From a peak of more than $60 billion last year, Arks total assets under management across all nine of its ETFs has fallen to less than $12 billion.

          Even Arks flagship fund, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), has suffered badly in 2022. Despite its continued declines in 2022, however, investors hopes for a belated reprieve have not faded completely. With the new year beckoning, now would seem to be an ideal time to take a look at what might lie in store for ARK Innovation in 2023.

          https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ark-innovation-meltdown-ever-end-215912475.html

          1. Q. What’s the difference between Cathie Wood’s ARK and Noah’s Ark?

            A. Noah’s Ark didn’t sink.

    11. Yahoo
      China Stocks Retreat as Covid Outbreak Renews Growth Fears
      Charlotte Yang and Ishika Mookerjee
      Wed, December 28, 2022 at 7:44 PM PST·2 min read

      (Bloomberg) — Chinese stocks retreated as traders fret the nation’s outbreak may derail a much-awaited economic recovery at home and abroad.

      The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell as much as 2.3% Thursday before paring losses. The gauge jumped nearly 2% in the previous session as China said it will reopen its borders to the outside world. Market moves were amplified amid thin year-end trading volume.

      The setback reflects concerns over how the spiraling outbreak in China may spur new virus variants and cause stoppages to the global supply chain that’s still under pressure. The burst of economic activity expected following China’s Covid Zero exit is also yet to be seen, as widespread infections keep people at home.

      “Investors may have priced that the worst is over, but they are starting to give more attention to the spread of the virus,” said Jun Rong Yeap, market strategist at IG Asia Pte. “The virus situation could set back the pace of economic recovery into 2023 by limiting consumer spending and disrupting economic activities.”

      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-stocks-retreat-covid-outbreak-034424916.html

    12. The Bottom Line
      Dow headed back below 30,000, slim chance of soft landing for economy in 2023: CNBC CFO survey
      Published Wed, Dec 28 2022 7:35 AM EST
      Updated 6 Hours Ago
      Eric Rosenbaum

      Key Points
      – The Dow is more likely to again fall below 30,000 than rally to a new stock market high, according to the latest CNBC CFO Council quarterly survey.
      – The economy will enter a recession in 2023, according to CFOs, with few chief financial officers seeing the Federal Reserve’s hopes for a soft landing as being possible.
      – Inflation has peaked, and the Fed is doing a better job now, but CFOs say inflation also remains the biggest risk to companies.
      – The CNBC CFO Council Survey is a sample of views from the C-suite at top corporations and organizations, with this quarter’s survey including responses from 23 CFOs.

      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/28/dow-headed-below-30000-slim-chance-of-soft-landing-for-economy-cfos.html

    13. The Financial Times
      Tech start-ups
      Silicon Valley staff rush to offload start-up shares as valuations plummet
      Workers forced into sales at sharp discounts amid job cuts and stalled IPO market
      The Stripe logo and a smartphone with Chime
      Multibillion-dollar businesses such as fintechs Chime and Stripe have had to cut 10% to 30% of their staff in the past two months
      Tabby Kinder, West Coast Financial Editor 4 hours ago

      Silicon Valley workers are rushing to offload stakes in tech start-ups through private share sales after a wave of job cuts, compounding a collapse in valuations.

      Employees of embattled tech groups are flooding secondary markets — where stakeholders in a private company sell shares to third parties — as the industry’s former darlings such as Klarna and Stripe have been forced into aggressive cost-cutting measures, according to brokers and investors.

      For many workers who have lost their jobs, their shares vest within 60 days, forcing them to sell during the worst downturn in a decade. Some companies are offering an extension on this timeframe, according to brokers, although some sellers want to get out of their holdings over fears the market rout will get worse next year.

      “We are seeing an inflow of people being laid off trying to sell their shares,” said Greg Martin, managing director of Rainmaker Securities, which facilitates private securities transactions. “These companies have built their headcounts up so much, so there are a lot of people highly motivated to get a sale done.”

      Martin added: “In general, we are seeing a 30 to 80 per cent decline in price from a year ago.”

      The uptick in sellers is pushing down the price of many tech start-ups, adding to concerns of an industry-wide reset in valuations of fledgling companies as rising interest rates and faltering public technology stocks filter through to private markets.

      The rout means it has become increasingly hard to assess a current price for many start-ups. Most have avoided raising money from venture capitalists this year out of fear that they would be forced to accept a lower valuation, leaving few solid indicators of how the wider slump has affected them.

    1. What can he do? I suppose get prepared to take a big hit on his credit score and to have his wages garnished? Or he could get a second job and pay it off. Nah, of course not.

      It always amazes me that people never think of the near term (forget long term) consequences for their actions. Did he really think he would never have to pay the bill?

    1. I think China abandoned its Zero Covid policy because they had already lost all control of the spread. The old narrative in China was that Covid was the Black Death. The new narrative is that it’s no big deal, so it doesn’t matter if everyone is getting it now.

  21. 𝗔𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗿𝗮, 𝗖𝗢 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟭% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗗𝗲𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗔𝗿𝗲𝗮 𝗦𝗶𝗻𝗸𝘀 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗜𝗻 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗮𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘀 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝗘𝘅𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀, 𝗘𝗺𝗽𝘁𝘆 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆

    https://www.movoto.com/aurora-co/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘢 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘵 𝘴𝘢𝘪𝘥, “𝘐 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘢𝘴𝘬 $50,000 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘶𝘯 𝘥𝘰𝘸𝘯 10 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘰𝘭𝘥 𝘊𝘩𝘦𝘷𝘺 𝘱𝘪𝘤𝘬𝘶𝘱 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘣𝘶𝘺𝘦𝘳 𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦? 𝘚𝘰 𝘪𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘥𝘦𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘵𝘴 𝘭𝘪𝘬𝘦 𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘤𝘢𝘳𝘴.”

  22. ‘I’m shocked to see how many people with employment income don’t have enough money to feed their families’

    ‘The most intense ‘war of elimination’ in the history of the industry has broken out, and the unemployment rate among agents has soared, he added. ‘With the plunge in Hong Kong’s property turnover, there was an unprecedented heavy loss’

    Are we there yet?

    ‘If funds just evaporate one day, it’s crookery…Then you realize you’re part of a Ponzi scheme. That’s what makes me really upset. A good chunk of my savings are gone because someone tried to defraud me’

    They didn’t try Nauman, you got schlonged.

    1. Andrew Torba, the founder of Gab, posts on Gab:

      “Don’t fedpost. Don’t post threats of violence. Don’t hint at or think you are being clever or witty with veiled threats. It’s not worth it and we do not allow it here for a reason. Our enemies are not playing by “fair” rules and are looking to destroy our lives.

      All of our enemies sit on Gab all day long waiting for people to fedpost so they can report them to the feds. So when you post a public post assume it is being seen by some intern at the ADL who wants any excuse to destroy your life and make Gab look bad or get us shut down.

      Gab has no “data sharing agreement” with anyone. Gab doesn’t get paid by any federal agency either, unlike Twitter and others.”

      LOL@ some intern at the ADL. What does your resume look like after that? UNEMPLOYABLE stamped across your forehead.

      “They’re not sending their best”

  23. ‘Multiple stress points are emerging in credit markets after years of excess, from banks stuck with piles of buyout debt, a pension blow-up in the UK’

    You mean it wasn’t Liz Truss’ budget that was gone before she was?

    Sacré bleu!

    1. ‘Multiple stress points are emerging in credit markets after years of excess,…’

      How long from now will this powder keg blow up?

    1. Markets
      CNBC TV
      Tech
      FTX diverted $200 million of customer money for two venture deals that caught the SEC’s attention
      Published Wed, Dec 28 2022 5:34 PM EST
      Updated 3 Hours Ago
      Rohan Goswami
      MacKenzie Sigalos

      Key Points
      – FTX and former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried made two $100 million venture investments using customer funds through an FTX subsidiary, the SEC said in a pair of complaints.
      – The only disclosed $100 million investments by FTX Ventures were in Mysten Labs and fintech company Dave.
      – The deals raise questions about potential clawbacks or conveyance issues for FTX bankruptcy attorneys and for individual clients.

      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/28/ftx-used-200-million-of-customer-funds-for-two-venture-investments.html

    2. Markets
      Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX saga keeps getting weirder as new details shed further light on how much his companies’ finances overlapped
      Phil Rosen
      Dec 28, 2022, 3:10 AM

      Happy hump day to the smartest corner of the web. I’m Phil Rosen, writing to you from Los Angeles. 

      This morning I’m thinking about just how wild, deep, and strange the FTX drama has become.

      More details are sure to emerge, but there’s already enough fodder for a spectacular thriller novel on par with “The Big Short.” In fact, Michael Lewis is already working on a book.

      Today, I’m breaking down the latest and weirdest developments surrounding Sam Bankman-Fried and his company — and sharing details from a conversation I had with one FTX user who’s been left in a six-figure hole.

      https://www.businessinsider.com/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-crypto-markets-investing-alameda-finance-sec-2022-12

  24. Some questions:

    1) Are cryptocurrencies actually currencies, securities, or commodities? I guess it depends in part how the government wants to regulate them.

    2) Is Ripple a cryptocurrency or a brand of cheap wine?

    3) is it possible to regulate cryptocurrencies without destroying the decentralized nature of the cryptoverse?

    1. Big News For Ripple? US Department Of Justice Calls Cryptos Commodities
      Jake Simmons by Jake Simmons
      22 hours ago

      As the legal battle between Ripple Labs and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) draws to a close and all eyes are on Judge Analisa Torres, the U.S. Department of Justice may have provided another argument for Brad Garlinghouse and his company.

      In recent court filings by the U.S. Department of Justice against Avraham Eisenberg, the DoJ refers to two cryptocurrencies as commodities. Eisenberg, who exploited the decentralized finance platform Mango Markets and made $67 million, was arrested yesterday in Puerto Rico and charged with market manipulation.

      For XRP investors and Ripple Labs, the indictment is interesting in that the U.S. Department of Justice calls the two cryptocurrencies CRV and MNGO commodities rather than securities. At no point do the DoJ lawyers refer to the cryptocurrencies as securities, nor do they refer to violations of securities law.

      For the Department of Justice, it thus appears that there is no dispute that neither token should be classified as a security. This stands in stark contrast to SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who is not only leading the case against Ripple but has also opined on several occasions that pretty much every crypto token is a security.

      In the indictment, the Justice Department writes unequivocally of CRV and MNGO tokens as commodities. It states:

      AVRAHAM EISENBEG, the defendant witifully and knowingly, directly and Indirectly, used […] in connection with swap, a contract of sale of a commodity in interstate and foreclosure commerce, and for future delivery on and subject to the rules of a registered entity, a manipulative and deceptive device and contrivance, in contravention of Title 17, Code of Federal Regulations, Section 180.1, […]

      For Ripple, the DoJ may have provided another argument that the legal situation for cryptocurrencies is not as clear as the SEC always claims. Since both CRV and MNGO are designated as commodities, it is at least reasonable to assume that XRP is a commodity and not a security.

      Remarkably, these documents were filed by the U.S. Department of Justice in the Southern District of New York, the same court where the case between Ripple and the SEC is taking place.

      Is It All Just Strategy?

      Gabriel Shapiro, General Counsel at Delphi Labs, commented that the fact that the case does not classify the relevant tokens as securities is in no way positive. According to Shapiro, the classification is simply a result of litigation strategy. “The fewer predicate issues the govt has to litigate in its case, the better.”

      Scott Lewis, co-founder of DeFi Pulse agrees with Shapiro and stated that the government is not announcing a new policy toward tokens with this document. Nevertheless, inconsistent policy toward crypto tokens is evident, he said.

      *All* government policy is a litigation strategy. Including Ripple and LBRY enforcement actions.

      Matt Feinberg, an attorney at Falcon Rappaport & Berkman LLP added:

      Maybe. But that’s because they believe it’s easier to prove that its a commodity, which infers that the commodity theory makes the most sense from a practical standpoint. Also keep in mind this is the DOJ choosing to use commodities law, not a CFTC enforcement action.

      https://bitcoinist.com/big-news-ripple-us-doj-calls-cryptos-commodities/

  25. Suddenly, no one wants migrants in their communities:

    Larimer County commissioners declined a request Wednesday from the state of Colorado to shelter additional migrants that have overwhelmed services in the Denver metro area, citing logistical and legal concerns, as well as worries that migrants might end up stranded without transportation in Larimer County, or enter the homeless population.

    Opens borders are great, until it actually costs a city or county precious resources and the Feds won’t write checks to cover the new expenses.

    I can’t wait to see what the Governor and the mayor of Dumver will do when the real deluge of central and south Americans start arriving, in an endless stream of busloads. And this scene will be repeated in metros across the country as The Camp of the Saints becomes reality. Brandon clearly doesn’t care, and even said that border issues are not important.

    Just how many more will join a caravan and cross the border as the FedGov not only does nothing to stop them, but continues to encourage their arrival? 5 million? 10 million? 20 million?

    1. CoinDesk
      Court Documents Show Sam Bankman-Fried Borrowed From Alameda to Buy Robinhood Shares
      Tue, December 27, 2022 at 9:49 AM PST

      Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried borrowed from Alameda Research to purchase 56 million shares of Robinhood Markets Inc., according to court documents. This comes as ex-Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison has reportedly apologized for her role in FTX’s collapse. “The Hash” panel discusses the latest in the fall of Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire.

      https://finance.yahoo.com/video/court-documents-show-sam-bankman-174946589.html

      1. “Sam Bankman-Fried borrowed from Alameda Research to purchase 56 million shares of Robinhood Markets…”

        I wonder where Alameda found all that cash!

        And it’s classic that SBF piled into Robinhood, because that’s the company that enabled the Millennial day traders to pool their pandemic stimulus funds and beat Wall Street.

        I wonder how Robinhood stock has fared recently?

        August 2021 share price $44
        Today’s price $7.70
        Outlook: Bearish

  26. The Financial Times
    Markets Briefing Equities
    Stocks and oil fall on China coronavirus fears
    Several countries to require Covid tests for passengers travelling from China
    Masked passengers using their phones at the check-in counter at Beijing international airport
    Passengers check in for their flights at the Beijing international airport on Thursday
    Philip Stafford in London and Stephanie Findlay in Hong Kong 3 hours ago

    Equities and crude oil fell on Thursday as investors worried about the impact of a surge in coronavirus cases in China on the global economy, just as the country eases its tough pandemic policies.

    The benchmark Hang Seng stock index was down 0.8 per cent, while China’s blue-chip CSI 300 index fell 0.4 per cent as major cities across China were faced with a surge in Covid-19 cases.

    In Europe, the benchmark Stoxx 600 was down 0.4 per cent in thin trading. The commodities-heavy FTSE 100 fell 0.6 per cent, led by declines for oil majors Shell and BP, down 1.2 per cent and 1.5 per cent respectively.

    In commodities markets Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, slid 1.9 per cent while WTI, the US counterpart, fell 2.4 per cent.

    Thursday’s declines come after China’s National Health Commission said it would drop quarantine requirements for inbound passengers from January 8, even as the country endures its worst Covid outbreak.

    The announcement was the latest easing of the government’s punishing zero-Covid policies, which have hit economic growth.

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