Housing Bubble Predictions For The New Year

1. ‘the downtown condo market has seen larger price reductions than any other market segment in the Bay Area. There has been a year-over-year decline of 16 percent in the median sales price for condos in the neighborhood. That is double the figure for other parts of the city, where the median price of condos dropped 7 percent in the last year. Prices for these condominiums are often at 2017 levels, and that is just remarkable when you consider how much in demand these places were just prior to the pandemic’

   Bay Aryans are about as bad as New Yorker’s with the boosterism. SF condos have been sinking like a turd in a well since 2015.

2. Here’s an easy one:

   The FTX collapse contagion is not contained, and will take down untold numbers of additional cryptocurrency firms before it finishes playing out.

   1. “You just don’t understand crypto, bro.” — Every crypto cultist

      1. Except they’re a lot less polite. I tried to explain that blockchain can survive without Bitcoin and I was told “you’re so lost.” At least that’s nicer than “shut up until you educate yourself” or “have fun staying poor.”

   2. The Winklevoss twins and their cryptocurrency exchange Gemini are being sued for fraud by investors
      Morgan Chittum
      Dec 29, 2022, 1:22 PM
      Gemini cofounders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss pose for a photo against a gray background.
      – Crypto exchange Gemini is facing a class action lawsuit over its interest-bearing accounts.
      – Investors are accusing Gemini — along with founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss — of fraud, per a complaint filed on Tuesday. 
      – Gemini’s Earn Program attracted customers because it offered up to 7.4% interest. 
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/winklevoss-twins-and-cryptocurrency-exchange-gemini-lawsuit-fraud-investors-2022-12

   3. It reminds me of the late 90’s dotcom bubble. Most will be wiped out. A few will survive and thrive into the next bubble.

3. With inflation well above the Fed’s target level of 2%, it will continue raising interest rates into 2023 and beyond, while ignoring the crescendo swell of wailing and gnashing of teeth by Wall Street’s risk asset HODLers.

4. If I renewed my lease today at the current asking rent for similar units in the building, my rent will increase 2.8%.

   Gas will be back at $6 this summer, diesel will hit $8, and the price of food will double. Food prices will never return to what they were in 2019, and millions more will miss meals and go hungry.

   2023 will be a year of deprivation and suffering.

   1. 2023 will be a year of deprivation and suffering.

      And while it will be nasty here and in the “west”, in the poor countries it will be cataclysmic. And it will all be blamed on climate change.

      1. It will also be a great time for Russia to earn global goodwill via exports of its surplus harvests and fertilizer.

5. ‘Sadly, there is no intrinsic valuation model for this asset — indeed, there is no agreement whether it is a commodity or a currency ‘—

   Then you can kiss your “institutional adoption” goodbye. This time you’re going to see some real due diligence and a lot of no-thank-yous. And that alone may be the death-knell for crypto. By now it’s pretty clear that the casual investor is out and the crypto bros have maxed out trading with each other. Everything hinges on institutions bringing more money to the space, Ponzi-style. If it doesn’t happen, they’re toast.

   1. Unless I somehow missed it, there is no widespread acknowledgement at this point that cryptocurrencies are fundamentally worthless assets whose investment returns are solely due to Ponzi trades where a greater fool pays a higher price.

      The real bubble collapse will come when everyone sees these electronic beanie babies for what they are.

   2. “By now it’s pretty clear that the casual investor is out and the crypto bros have maxed out trading with each other.”

      It must be challenging to trade when you are under house arrest.

      1. Not according to the blockchain sleuths. There are a number of reports that would seem to indicate that SBF is unlocking all kinds of different ‘assets’ and moving them around. I’m sure he is sorry to be doing it but what’s a sociopathic pathological lying grifter to do with all of his time?

         1. If they find that SBF is trading at home, wouldn’t that void any bail?

            1. Not if he’s feeding the right “online wallets.” The US “justice” system is rigged.

   3. “Everything hinges on institutions bringing more money to the space, Ponzi-style. If it doesn’t happen, they’re toast.”

      The jooz who matter have got the federal government looking into their losses, and somehow they will blame the SEC for not getting involved sooner, and the federal government will will reimburse the blue eyes for their crypto losses.

      1. If Fed gov is planning a cryptocurrency bailout, they certainly are keeping it a closely guarded secret. By contrast, do you remember the histrionics between the Congress and Treasury department officials leading up to the fall 2008 subprime collapse bailouts?

         I also don’t get your stereotyping of the ethnicities of the groups involved. Yes SBF is Jewish, but how is that relevant?

         1. I also don’t get your stereotyping of the ethnicities of the groups involved. Yes SBF is Jewish, but how is that relevant?

            Because we’re noticing an inordinate amount of these people are part of the evil destroying the US, that’s why.

            1. Not noticing the obvious but seeing figments of our government’s creation (e.g., white nationalists) as amplified by MSM (see Operation Mockingbird).

            2. EXCLUSIVE Meet Ray Epps, Part 2: Damning New Details Emerge Exposing Massive Web Of Unindicted Operators At The Heart Of January 6

               “In this report, we will blow open this network of still-unindicted key operators who appear to have been at work either with or around Ray Epps during the initial Capitol grounds breach. You, dear reader, will be scandalized — though perhaps unsurprised — to learn that none of the actors covered in this report have received attention in the mainstream press, despite their active and indispensable roles in the events of 1/6.”

               If Epps turns out to have been some kind of government operative, which at present is the only clean and simple explanation for his immunity, it is game over for the official “MAGA insurrection” narrative of 1/6. Epps was the day’s loudest riot recruiter, and its apparent leader of the very first breach of Capitol grounds. If Ray Epps is a Fed, the “Insurrection” becomes the “Fedsurrection” in one fell swoop.

               These are the stakes at play in unraveling the Ray Epps enigma.

               But it is imperative to note that if Epps was just a cog in a much larger federal operation, he would not have been deployed alone. Historically speaking, when Feds have orchestrated fake mobs of fake protesters, or contrived fake conspiratorial plots, the Feds’ own assets have commonly comprised between 16% to 25% of the plot’s participants, at least in its key respects. Indeed, the FBI once flew in 1,600 rowdy spooks to infiltrate a single convention with just 10,000 protesters.

               In recent times, attacks blamed on right-wing militias have blown past the 16% mark on the Fed Saturation Index and have been clocking in at a whopping 25-50%. As Revolver has previously noted:

               Students of FBI history should quickly absorb the lesson that infiltrating Feds are like roaches: whenever you spot one, it is guaranteed there are dozens of others nearby. Feds simply never, ever, operate alone. This is how you end up with at least 12 FBI informants in a tiny “right-wing” Michigan militia plot from October 2020 (that’s just informants, not even agents), 15 informants in the “right-wing” 2016 Malheur plot, dozens in the 2014 Bundy Ranch affair — including six FBI undercover agents posing as fake documentarians shooting a fake documentary — and the list goes on.

            3. If Ray Epps is a Fed, the “Insurrection” becomes the “Fedsurrection” in one fell swoop. These are the stakes at play in unraveling the Ray Epps enigma.

               The dumbed-down libtard sheeple will never believe it. Facts have never swayed them. The Steele Dossier which the Russian Hoax was based upon was proven to be a sham, yet the narrative lives on as these sheeple truly still believe. Once you tell a lie enough times, people believe it forever. They are running a psychological operation.

         2. A cursory review of Madoff’s victims receiving U.S. taxpayer money albeit well short being made whole, but a handout.

      2. the blue eyes

         Why blue eyes?? Most people I know with blue eyes, my household included, aren’t Jewish.

         1. This line of talk led to a very nasty mess over in Europe almost a century ago. Ugly stuff.

            1. It’s all stupid talk. There’s a lot of Jewish people in finance because they are smart and have money. There no Jewish conspiracy unless you want to also claim that blacks have a conspiracy theory to monopolize the nba, rap music and the cornerback position in the nfl.

            2. Some years ago I was recommended for a short term contractor job. It went well and they were going to hire me full time. THe hiring manager, who was jewish, was very chummy with me, until he found out I wasn’t jewish. Then, the chuminess stopped and they hired someone else.

               That was quite an eye opener for me.

         2. Perhaps it’s to distinguish Ashkenazis from Sephardics?

            1. Perhaps.

6. US housing price declines will continue at an accelerating rate, as investment firms who used leverage to purchase real estate near peak mania levels recognize the need to offload inventories before incurring even more massive losses than they have already.

7. ‘Get a single digit percentage point of your investable assets in bitcoin and do not look at it for 5-10 years. Thank me later.’

   If rather invest in beanie babies, thank you. They are far more affordable, and likely to still be around in 5-10 years. Plus they are cute.

8. 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝗸 𝗖𝗶𝘁𝘆, 𝗨𝗧 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟯𝟯% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗘𝘅𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗘𝗺𝗽𝘁𝘆 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗮𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗥𝗼𝘁𝘀 𝗢𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗩𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗔𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝗨𝘁𝗮𝗵

   https://www.movoto.com/park-city-ut/market-trends/

   𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭 𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘵 𝘴𝘢𝘪𝘥, “𝘏𝘰𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘤𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘳𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴.”

9. The Fed has taken away the punchbowl. But the drunken revelers have yet to sober up, and don’t realize yet that no more alcohol is coming their way any time soon.

   1. The money party is over
      No one was celebrating in 2022’s economy.
      By Emily Stewart
      emily.stewart@vox.com
      Dec 26, 2022, 7:00am EST
      A messy hotel room after a party.
      You’re sober. Go home.
      Getty Images/Chris Clinton
      Emily Stewart covers business and economics for Vox and writes the newsletter The Big Squeeze, examining the ways ordinary people are being squeezed under capitalism. Before joining Vox, she worked for TheStreet.
      This story is part of a group of stories called
      The Goods

      If you got into investing in mid-2020 or in 2021 — which many people did — you probably had a nice time. Stocks soared after the market crashed at the onset of the pandemic. Crypto took off, too. The meme stock craze driven by GameStop and AMC was comically profitable for some, at least while the joke lasted. NFTs were pretty completely made up, but hey, they were worth a lot of money. And isn’t all money just made up, anyway?

      The situation certainly felt like a bubble, but it was a fun bubble to be in, as many bubbles are. It can feel like quite the party. It’s less fun when the bubble bursts … which is where we landed in 2022. The line that kept going up suddenly couldn’t stop going down.

      It has been a rough stretch for the economy overall. For stock market investors, major indexes like the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the NASDAQ are all set to end the year in the red. Crypto winter is most definitely here. The housing market is in trouble, and mortgage rates, which have been low for years, are climbing. Inflation is at a 40-year high, cutting into recent wage gains. The Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation by increasing interest rates is threatening to throw workers out of jobs and push the country into recession. Americans, on the whole, still have hundreds of billions of dollars in excess savings built up during the pandemic, but they’re spending that money down.

      The Fed’s whole thing is it’s supposed to take the punch bowl away just as the party gets going. There are those who argue it waited too long and everybody got too drunk, or that it’s moving too fast and plenty of people are still stone-cold sober, or that the punch bowl isn’t where the liquor is at all. Whatever the case, it appears the party, for now, is over.

      It is super easy to feel like a genius in a bull market

      The stock market’s run over the past decade or so has generally been pretty good. Though stocks plunged when the pandemic hit, they rebounded quickly — the market got an enormous amount of support from the Fed, and many people dipped their toes into day trading for the first time. In some corners, it felt as though investors couldn’t lose. The S&P gained 16 percent in 2020 and 27 percent in 2021. But this year, it’s given a lot of those gains back.

      That 2022 would be a tough year for stock market investors wasn’t necessarily surprising, given the market’s 2021 gains, explained Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at investment research firm CFRA Research, in an interview. “Every time the market is up by 20 percent or more, we experienced a decline of at least 5 to 10 percent, the average actually being a correction of 10 and 15 percent. This time, unfortunately, it ended up being a bear market,” he said, meaning a decline of 20 percent. That to-be-expected decline has been exacerbated by some external factors that made it worse. “The Fed did wait too long to start to raise interest rates. We did not see the supply disruption unwind as quickly as many thought it would, and heading into this year, the Russia-Ukraine situation had not [yet] exploded,” Stovall added. Also a factor is China’s continued hard stance on Covid, which has economic implications around the globe.

      Big tech stocks have come back down to earth after a pretty impressive run. Investor interest in some of the weirder stuff, from meme stocks to cryptocurrencies to NFTs, has declined, and in turn, so have their prices. Across the board, there haven’t been many places for investors to hide — even the normal refuge of the bond market wasn’t safe.

      “This is the first time in decades that both the stock market and the bond market went down simultaneously. It created a lot of disruption for investors this year because really there was no place, not even gold,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer and founding partner at Cresset Capital. (The narrative that “bitcoin is a good inflation hedge” seems not to have borne out either.)
      “Plenty of people like their Pelotons, but the company was probably never actually worth $50 billion”

      It’s not necessarily a terrible thing that some assets whose prior valuations weren’t entirely justifiable come back to a little more realistic level. Plenty of people like their Pelotons, but the company was probably never actually worth $50 billion. And for investors still interested in those assets, lower prices might be an opportunity to buy. “Look, think of stocks and the stock market like any other product. Do you want to buy steak when it’s $18 a pound or do you want to buy that same steak when it’s $10 a pound?” Ablin said. “When the price goes down, it actually turns out to be a better deal.”

      To be sure, there are no guarantees that markets won’t get worse before they get better. The Fed is poised to continue to raise interest rates in 2023, a maneuver not exactly loved by investors. Stovall said he doesn’t see 2023 mirroring 2022 — but it doesn’t necessarily mean we’ve hit bottom yet, either. In October, he asked a group of financial advisers whether they’d heard from their “bell ringer” clients — the people who want to get aggressive when the market tops and sell just as it’s bottoming, to make the wrong move at just the wrong moment. They hadn’t. He told them, “Either you’re doing too good of a job of keeping them in tune and so forth, or we have not really seen the capitulation that we usually see at the end of a bear market.”
      …
      https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2022/12/26/23517732/stock-market-economy-inflation-crypto-2022-in-review

      1. this “or we have not really seen the capitulation that we usually see at the end of a bear market.”

         1. Exactly. I remember a newspaper headline howling “WHERE’S THE BOTTOM?” after the Dow had been chopped in half. Of course, that was it. Also, of course, said newspaper cackled “HAVE FUN STAYING POOR RENTERS!” nonstop through the bubble years.

            1. I thought the “have fun staying poor” meme was targeted at those of us who refused to buy cryptocurrency?

         2. The reason for no capitulation so far is embodied in butters’ post below:

            “1. Inflation will come down to 4 to 5% and the Fed will throw in the towel that this is the best they can do.”

            This belief supports HODLing until the Fed waves the white flag and respikes the punchbowl, after abandoning its commitment to keep at it with containing inflation.

            A lot of folks on Wall Street have missed the memo that this time is different and the Fed is not playing by its usual play book. Until this sinks in, and HODLers throw in the towel and dump their devalued risk asset HODLings, there will be ongoing volatility with significant downside risk.

   2. The Financial Times
      Opinion On Wall Street
      A stock market bounce in 2023 is not a sure bet
      Back-to-back calendar year losses are rare but can happen
      History provides a reminder that it can take a long time for equity markets to recover from the sort of blows suffered this year.
      Jennifer Hughes yesterday

      What goes down, must go up — and in the next year, no less. At least, that’s a belief that would justify this year’s standing as the second-best year on record for inflows into stock-focused exchange traded funds.

      Even as equities endured their worst performance since the 2008 financial crisis with a one-fifth fall for US blue-chips, investors have poured some $510bn into equity ETFs, according to Bank of America data. The biggest flows have been directed at the giant index trackers and the passive funds that invest in large-cap stocks which have borne the brunt of this year’s losses.

      The bulls have a point since stocks on average gain 20 per cent in the 12 months after hitting a bear market bottom, according to broker LPL Financial. LPL adds that, at nearly one year old, the current bear market is now longer than the average since the second world war of 11 months. There are also only four occasions that the S&P 500 has suffered back-to-back calendar-year losses in a history stretching back almost a century.

      But at the risk of sobering any year-end revels, what if 2023 marks a fifth time unlucky and this isn’t yet the bottom?

      In an interview on the All-in podcast, Tesla founder Elon Musk mused last week about the potential for “mass panic” among investors. He cautioned listeners against using shares as loan collateral in a volatile market and advised keeping cash to hand.

      “You can get some pretty extreme things happening in a down market,” the entrepreneur added as he predicted a “best guess” of stormy times for another 18 months. It is doubtless particularly easy to be gloomy when your company’s stock has plunged more than two-thirds in a year and you’re facing a $44bn bill for the controversial takeover of Twitter.

      Still, Musk is far from the only one jittery about the outlook, especially given that central bankers have made it clear they will continue to fight inflation with higher interest rates in spite of forecasts for — at best — an economic slowdown.

      There’s been a lot of focus this year on the potential for blow-ups in the bond world, either from heavy borrowers collapsing as rates rise, or because some largely overlooked corner unexpectedly gums up the wider system, as happened to UK gilts, or government bonds, in September, bringing down the country’s prime minister in the process. But shaken stock markets inflict their own sort of pain too.

      The uncertainty is reflected in a wide spread of analyst forecasts for 2023. A Reuters poll of 41 predictions at the end of November showed a median expectation of the S&P finishing at 4,200, about 3 per cent above the levels at the time, and up roughly a tenth from current levels. But the poll also recorded forecasts running almost 20 per cent either side of that.

      While classic measures of expected volatility like the Vix index are not flashing red today, others show a more shaky environment. Before this week, the S&P 500 has seen an all-time record of 16 Fridays this year where it closed at least 1 per cent lower, according to a count kept by Bespoke Investment Group. It has also enjoyed 15 week-closes where it has gained at least that much — a frequency not reached since the irrational exuberance of 1999.

      Fridays matter because they can set the mood into the next week, barring big weekend events, and because they’re typically days for taking profits and trimming risk, not for making bold bets.

      History also provides a reminder that it can take a long time for equity markets to recover from the sort of blows suffered this year. If the doomsters are correct, then a gloomy scenario may look more like the dotcom aftermath.

      After the bursting of that bubble, it took seven years for the S&P 500 to regain and then surpass the highs it hit in that boom. Just reaching the bottom took a while too — the S&P’s 49 per cent slide from peak to trough took two-and-a-half years as the hype faded around tech stock valuations.
      …

10. Kevin McCarthy and Mitch McConnell will do almost nothing to stand up to the criminal Biden regime. There will be a few House hearings and it will all fizzle out.

    Enough RINOs will vote with the War Party to ensure the money spigot to Ukraine flows unchecked. Prediction for U.S. taxpayer money given to war criminal Zelensky in 2023: at least $200 billion.

    1. When will “noticing” be criminalized?

       https://westernrifleshooters.us/2022/12/31/2022-closeout-edition/

       1. Jonathan Brownsplatt does not approve 🙁

    2. Kevin I think will be an unexpected surprise. He’s well aware of the feelings in his caucus.

       Mitch, despite his recent issues, rammed through 3 Supreme Court appointments. I’ll cut him some slack. I’m no fan but like a Super Bowl winning qb, there’s always legacy goodwill.

11. I predict the wider implications of the recent extraordinary shift in the Fed’s reverse repo facility will come to light in early 2023.

    I hope a financial journalist shows up who can explain what it means in plain English!

    1. 3 minute read
       December 30, 2022 1:59 AM PST
       Last Updated 19 hours ago
       Fed reverse repo facility hits record $2.554 trillion
       By Michael S. Derby
       The Federal Reserve building is seen in Washington, DC
       The Federal Reserve building is seen in Washington, U.S., January 26, 2022. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts/File Photo

       NEW YORK, Dec 30 (Reuters) – A key facility the Federal Reserve uses to help control short-term interest rates saw record inflows on Friday, the final trading day of the year.
       …

       1. Reverse repos are the opposite of repos. A repo is essentially a short term loan from the FED to a bank during a liquidity crisis. A “reverse repo” is when the bank has too much liquidity so they do the opposite and loan that money to the FED. I’m not sure what you are getting at.

12. 𝗥𝗶𝗼 𝗟𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗮, 𝗖𝗔 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟲% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗗𝗼𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗗𝗶𝗴𝗶𝘁 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀 𝗕𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗦𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗔𝗿𝗲𝗮

    https://www.movoto.com/rio-linda-ca/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘚𝘢𝘤𝘳𝘢𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘰 𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘢 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦𝘳 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥, “𝘚𝘦𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘸𝘢𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘢𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘤𝘰𝘴𝘵.”

13. Another one of my many fans posted, “Prices aren’t falling you douche canoe. I’d like to punch you right in the @#cking head.”

    🤣🤣🤣

    1. Jay & Silent Bob showed us the way when it comes to dealing with internet trolls.

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3aF_u1zw7U

       1. Like I advise all my good friends…… as long as housing prices continue cratering, all is well.

          Falls Church, VA Housing Prices Crater 18% YOY As Subprime Mortgage Defaults Skyrocket In Fairfax And Arlington County

          https://www.movoto.com/falls-church-va/market-trends/

    2. Just think how angry these people will become when they realize that prices actually are falling?

    3. “Douche canoe”?

       IDK but I think I’ll memory-hole that one for later use. 😂

14. A reader sent these in:

    Kira Mason
    @kmasonrealtor
    The NAR pending home sales index fell 4% MoM in November- this is the 6th consecutive month of declines. At 73.9, this was the lowest reading since NAR launched the index in 2001 (barring lockdown). 1/2

    https://twitter.com/kmasonrealtor/status/1608845565554724864

    Kira Mason
    @kmasonrealtor
    Pendings declined in all four regions of the US in November, but the Northeast lead the pack with a 7.9% MoM drop to 63.3 on NAR’s index. This is a 34.9% drop YoY. 2/2

    https://twitter.com/kmasonrealtor/status/1608845567043702785

    Kira Mason
    @kmasonrealtor
    “We’re seeing decade-low readings for just about every index that you can imagine for housing” says NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz

    https://twitter.com/kmasonrealtor/status/1608892046139396096

    US Pending Home Sales Crash Most on Record | Down -4.0% in November (Est. was -1.0%), October Revised Down Further 🚨

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1609052781981143041

    multi REITs finished 2022 down 25-40% in total return for the year. Pre Covid to today, total returns range from -30% to +15% with massive dispersion within the sector.

    https://twitter.com/MRossG199/status/1608941391404765189

    hmmmmmm

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1608974364552364032

    Wait, I thought they would buy when prices collapsed?

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1608983985438457858

    Ron Butler
    @ronmortgageguy
    Let’s Agree The Federal Government Was Really Dumb About the 2021 Real Estate Price Run-up
    Everyone should agree how stupidly the Feds and the Bank of Canada acted in 2021
    Because if we all don’t agree, there is a chance we do it AGAIN and we just can’t do that again 2/

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1608113731598442497

    Ron Butler
    @ronmortgageguy
    Alternative Mortgage Lender Renewal Rate Apocalypse
    As I have posted previously one of the MOST effected groups by rising renewal rates are Alternative Lender (Banks, CUs) clients
    All Renewals are double and more
    Let’s look at a large file:
    $2.37 Million Mortgage 2/

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1608466073426317312

    Ron Butler
    @ronmortgageguy
    So Frigging Slow in Real Estate
    Told my staff Wednesday that this feels like the slowest December for TTREB in multiple decades
    BINGO It wasn’t just a random feeling
    Some folks may hang in till May on Pure Hopium but the Mortgage Industry is gonna lose a lot of folks

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1608696150995111936

    Ron Butler
    @ronmortgageguy
    A Very Happy New Year!!! Whether partying hard or just quietly celebrating the time off please enjoy the last of the Holiday Break
    Because the 2023 business cycle starts Tuesday and for everyone in Real Estate or Mortgages and all the related businesses, 2023 will be tough

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1608850837895516169

    Turned my kitchen into an Airbnb rental. I have a few simple rules…

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1608611949507645441

    We’re all very proud of the #QT.

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1608580763343290368

    Look, fwiw the FF rate is now up to about the average since 1954 (4.6%). It’s the ridiculous QE that spiked wealth inequality (and made housing ridiculously overpriced.) NO ONE in the MSM is calling them out on the fact that QT (esp. MBS) is a joke.

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1608875467674910722

    These are the two top @WSJ Fed “reporters'” latest books. They’re NOT journalists – they’re publicists! Who is tough on the Fed in the MSM? No one. They all LOVE the Fed, otherwise they wouldn’t be Fed reporters. The Fed has immense power. This is a national disgrace.

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1608880482615427074

    The situation is escalating.

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1584322638071345153

    This really is quite amazing given historical precedent. Normally any scheme to stimulate housing demand does just that, but with rising rates and falling prices, this one isn’t working right now. An interesting little indicator to keep an eye on going forward.

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1608659806327549953

    Just got a tour of FTX’s brand new office. Amazing facility, excited to see what the team can do in 2023!

    https://twitter.com/yo/status/1608861092243017730

    Federal reserve reverse repos just skyrocketed. Up $300 billion since yesterday. The Fed pays (risk free) interest to commercial banks on these deposits … the Fed’s profits (on its bond portfolio) that used to go directly to the US treasury.

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1608911837965475840

    Remember when Elon said a $tsla car was an appreciating asset a few years back.

    https://twitter.com/amazonholder1/status/1608457930172694529

    Luxury home availability is absolutely skyrocketing. Rich are getting out.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1608566749032747008

    Just 2 more days until December has fewer sales than the April 2020 covid lockdown, the lowest in recent history. Someone sell 450 houses quick!

    https://twitter.com/daniel_foch/status/1608656380147425281

    Bond yields ripping again. Higher for Longer and death to long duration. $TLT $QQQ

    https://twitter.com/PutinsBitchBoy/status/1608847814930595844

    Yesterday, Barron’s reported that Elon Musk got a margin call. After being corrected, they quietly changed the headline to:

    https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1608875210899587072

    People who stayed in cash during 2022

    https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1608899285441220608

    Thousands of $500k+ annually comped investment bankers gave year end S&P 500 predictions in June 2022
    EVERY SINGLE ONE overshot to the upside
    Only two were remotely correct
    (as I noted at the time)
    That’s a wrap on a wild #StockMarket year!

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1608924390091259904

    JP Morgan sums up its 2023 forecast like this: “A bad year for the economy, a better year for markets.” But don’t worry about a housing crash. Home prices will be supported by the limited stock in housing. Housing inventories are still less than half what they were during 2008.

    https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1608937817446690816

    On the hunt for the bearish chart of the year. This one is in contention, although I’m sure most people think it’s bullish.

    https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1608864068324167680

    2023 can be the year of global debt crisis.. see rates in europe are increasing and will increase in the rest of the world. China’s reopening will fuel inflation. The target is burning the debt and killing zombie companies.

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1608890177610723328

    Steve Saretsky

    A whopping 57% of borrowers in January 2022 went with variable rate mortgages in Canada.

    https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/1608880905673920513

    Hilliard MacBeth CIM FCSI®

    The Toronto Star oped from a mortgage industry lobbyist advocating for 30-yr amortization. 1/2

    https://twitter.com/hmacbe/status/1608825629339955200

    Every single city in the Case-Shiller 20-City Index saw a decline in home prices in August, September, and October. The last time all 20 cities were down 3 months in a row: Nov 2008 – Jan 2009.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1608860644538994688

    Fed Balance Sheet has only been reduced by 5% ($414,318,000,000). They have a long way to go yet. Inflation rose and balance sheet is unchanged year-over-year (go figure). They should be reducing much more aggressively. Note inflation compared to your purchasing power.

    https://twitter.com/BP_Rising/status/1608897738548314112

    There will be a massive wealth transfer from non history buffs to history buffs

    https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1518986262115459074

    Exotic cars being sold off at ‘huge discounts’ as demand hits brakes

    https://twitter.com/RomanSB1/status/1608564374142164992

    Just in case anyone was wondering, there are 453 Lamborghini Urus listed on autotrader right now

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1608934504466612224

    So many “investors” are gonna get wrecked and I can’t wait.
    Especially those who bought new builds, presales.
    No one wants your overpriced shitty shoebox now. #VanRE #bagholders

    https://twitter.com/juliamarblefaun/status/1608530606438379522

    Where are the most second homes?

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1608944484578136064

    I have a dream. That families who make a median incomes can afford a median priced home and a median priced car at historically average interest rates. That success is determined by your production rather than what asset you speculated on.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1608948207379447808

    Over my life/career these two pieces cost me greatly. Stupidity and socialism drive the markets.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1608864340693913601

    AT THE START OF THE YEAR THESE WERE THE PREDICTIONS ON WHERE THE S&P 500 WILL END THE YEAR AT
    BMO 5300
    CREDIT SUISSE 5200
    GOLDMAN 5100
    JPM 5050
    RBC 5050
    CITI 4900
    UBS 4850
    BARCLAYS 4800
    WELLS FARGO 4715
    BANK OF AMERICA 4600
    MORGAN STANLEY 4400
    S&P 500 IS CLOSING THE YEAR @ 3800

    https://twitter.com/gurgavin/status/1608857557921304578

    Former CVS NNN lease sitting vacant in suburban Chicago. Amazing demographic, drive by counts, parking and corporate lease. Just a reminder – you need to price in vacancy risk.

    https://twitter.com/Cribdilla/status/1608853929059618817

    The Economist must be overleveraged in Canadian real estate.

    https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1608867936550391810

    Throughout this entire time series, including GFC, M2 never shrank. Recent downturn is $21.73T to $21.351T or roughly 2%. This does not end well.

    https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepard/status/1608478530891055104

    european bonds approach the lows

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1608822756539498497

    60/40 portofolios will close the year with the worst YTD return in 100 years.. next year even worse. they hold bonds.

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1608832190875598849

    FDIC saying “I do think it’s hard to get a lot of demand for transparency right now, in this sort of period of peacetime, but that is going to flip and it’s going to flip faster than we saw in 2008.” Saying it plain and simple: This is way worse than 2008.🧐

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1608711332265865217

    Brampton Uber driver who bought 2 million dollar homes with 90k in upgrades mantra right now. He thinks we will return to February 2022 peak pricing in 12-18 months 😂

    https://twitter.com/RE_MarketWatch/status/1608852331491385344

    1/ Another interview with the Uber driver who bought a 2 million dollar home. How these ppl weaponize their victimhood is hilarious. He says the builder had them at “gun point” to buy the homes. It’s in Punjabi so I will summarize @BenRabidoux

    https://twitter.com/RE_MarketWatch/status/1608460181599387651

    1. The uber driver thread is hilarious. Turdo’s army thinking K-nada is the place of milk and honey. Since he mentions both husband and wife have ‘property management’ companies, I kept on thinking had he been in the US, they would have made a killing during PPP.

    2. Wait, I thought they would buy when prices collapsed?

       TBFB apparently has a Twitter account now.

       1. Everybody loves The Big Fat Bastard!🤣

          Hampden, ME Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As A Deep Freeze Settles In On US Housing Market

          https://www.movoto.com/hampden-me/market-trends/

    3. bearish chart of the year

       This chart is awesome!

    4. The BOJ will now allow Japan’s 10-year bond yields to rise to around 0.5%, up from the previous limit of 0.25%, according to a policy statement Tuesday.Dec 20, 2022

       End of cheap money in 2023 yea a easy prediction. This will wreck government budgets they will have to pay a bigger and bigger percentage of their spending just to pay interest.

       1. Tight government budgets is a corollary…

    5. That families who make a median incomes can afford a median priced home

       The bottom ~30% will always rent. So you need to earn the median income within the top ~60 percentile to afford a median home. If you have a median income of the overall population you can only afford a starter home.

       1. I suspect that landlords also buy and sell houses.

    6. “The last time all 20 cities were down 3 months in a row: Nov 2008 – Jan 2009.”

       IIRC prices continued to fall through 2012 or so, until the Bernanke Put ended the declines. It would have been interesting to see where the market would have bottomed out if the Fed hadn’t interrupted its progress towards a stable, fundamentals-based equilibrium.

    7. I have a dream. That families who make a median incomes can afford a median priced home and a median priced car at historically average interest rates. That success is determined by your production rather than what asset you speculated on.

       That peoples’ pensions are determined by their contributions to the plan, not by what decade they were born in.

    8. It’s the ridiculous QE that spiked wealth inequality (and made housing ridiculously overpriced.) NO ONE in the MSM is calling them out on the fact that QT (esp. MBS) is a joke.

       They’ll never get away with QE again. I think it’s been relegated to the dustbin of history. The damage was too great, too transparent, and the FED is taking enormous heat, even from virtue-signaling billionaires who benefited. Jay Powell has egg all over his face. These people have turned into a laughingstock.

       1. They’ll never get away with QE again.
          I disagree. I expect to see loan forgiveness and “emergency relief” during the next “Crisis.” I hope I am wrong.

15. ‘When rates come down, buyers will jump in again, and bidding wars and rising prices will return. Buyers have choices right now. Get in before the next frenzy.’”

    Keep drinking the Kool-Aid.

    1. Everley Brothers – Dream

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ki-W-TdJ0Uw

16. “You Have Turned the Government Against the People, and I Think it’s Disgusting.” Christina Bobb to the “Inquisition” in Her Jan 6 Interview

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/12/turned-government-people-think-disgusting-christina-bobb-inquisition-jan-6-interview/

17. If Realtors were honest:

    https://youtu.be/Y-i7cawhw8s

18. ‘When rates come down, buyers will jump in again, and bidding wars and rising prices will return. Buyers have choices right now. Get in before the next frenzy.’”

    You keep trying to drum up that artificial sense of urgency, Realtor Boy. Meanwhile, the pool of creditworthy buyers willing and able to sign on Mr. Banker’s line which is dotted for shacks that are still vastly overpriced is evaporating faster than Yellen Bux “wealth” from the crypto mania.

19. He doesn’t see a crash in the future, and predicts rents will get high enough to push people back into buying

    I can’t figure out if REIC asshats like this are lying through their teeth, or if they’re actually delusional enough to believe the BS they’re spewing. How are tapped-out debt donkeys whose paltry wages are being outstripped by inflation far higher than what our fake, Soviet-style CPI stats says it is going to swing higher rent? Answer: they’re not, and greedy landlords out to gouge tenants are going to be dealing with rising delinquencies and vacant units. Meanwhile, in Democrat-Bolshevik states “rent strikes” are becoming a thing, with deadbeats and freeloaders getting political top cover from radical-left apparatchiks at City Hall. So the writing is on the wall for greedy landlords.

    1. Dec 15, 2022 – Economy & Business
       U.S. rents drop at the fastest rate in 7 years, per Zillow
       Emily Peck, author of Axios Markets
       Data: Zillow; Note: Typical rent is the average rent of the middle 30% of units; Chart: Axios Visuals

       Rent prices fell 0.4% in November — the largest month-over-month drop since Zillow started tracking this data in 2015, according to the real estate company’s latest rent report.

       Why it matters: This is another sign that inflation is easing.

       Month-over-month prices are falling fastest in Raleigh (-1.3%), Austin (-1.2%), and Seattle (-1.1%).

       The big picture: The rent got too damn high. Fewer folks could afford to pay these prices, particularly when the cost of everything else was going up, too.

       – Now more people are “doubling up with roommates or family,” instead of striking out on their own, Zillow reports.
       – Rents are still way higher than before the pandemic, at a national average of $2,008 per month.

       What we’re watching: The recent declines will take time to filter into the government’s Consumer Price Index numbers because of the way rent is measured in that report.

       Fed chair Jerome Powell acknowledged this at his press conference Wednesday, noting that inflation readings for rent will likely “come down sometime next year.”
       …
       https://www.axios.com/2022/12/15/us-rents-drop-at-the-fastest-rate-in-7-years-per-zillow

20. Central bank researchers estimate that around half of all variable-rate mortgages with a fixed payment have already hit their so-called trigger rate, which means the mortgage holder has to up their monthly payments or shift some of the interest costs to the principal they owe.

    Rising wages and slowing inflation in our robust global economy will make these “trigger rates” a non-issue.

    Oh, wait….

21. My predictions:

    1. Inflation will come down to 4 to 5% and the Fed will throw in the towel that this is the best they can do.
    2. No recession. With massive gobmit spending, the GDP will be made look positive.
    3. Rate cuts will start in second half. We will end at 3% FFR with 4 to 5% inflation by Dec 31.
    4. Housing will stabilize. Prices will start to climb in the fall.
    5. Stonks, generally up 20% from today.
    6. BTC back to 50K.
    7. Hunter Biden will be not see a day in jail.
    8. SBF will get a light sentence of 1 to 3 yrs.
    9. Biden mental decline will be so severe that you will go without seeing him on TV for weeks or months.
    10. Dems will lay the massive voter fraud ops for installing Gavin Newsome and his black/latino/trans female running mate as your next overlords.

    1. 1. Inflation will come down to 4 to 5% and the Fed will throw in the towel that this is the best they can do.

       Real 4-5% or phoney-baloney 4-5% which is really 10-15%?

       1. There’s no real real. It’s all phony-baloney.

    2. “Inflation will come down to 4 to 5% and the Fed will throw in the towel that this is the best they can do.”

       My prediction: There’s a lot more pain to come for risk asset HODLers upon discovering the Fed is sticking to its 2% inflation target.

    3. Do you actually believe these predictions, or are you just thinking that everything is so crazy that even wacked out predictions will probably turn out to be true?

       1-3 might be self-contradictory. If interest rates stay high, the gov won’t be able to print money. Powell might cut rates in Q3, but we’ll have a recession by then. It’s possible that a recession won’t happen simply because everyone SAYS it’s going to happen. But what would we have instead?
       4. Housing will climb if interest rates go back down. Might take a couple months to kick in.
       6. This one might happen. As me and the Prof are discussing, it seems that nobody has figured out that nothing is backing bitcoin except potential currency adoption, and regulation as a commodity will kill any chance of a currency adoption. If everyone refuses to realize this, then yes BTC can rise to $50K on tulip speculation alone before the truth will out.
       7. I agree that Hunter won’t spend a day in jail. Joe’s last cognizant act will be to pardon him for all crimes past present and future.
       8. Unless SBF turns state’s evidence on other cryptos such as tether or Coinbase or Binance or whatever, I’m guessing he’ll get 10-15. Caroline will be the one with 1-3.
       9. Agree on the mental decline.
       10. Iffy on the voter fraud tbh but we’ll have to see.

    4. 1. Inflation will come down to 4 to 5% and the Fed will throw in the towel that this is the best they can do.

       You said the FED would never hike. Then, when they hiked you said they would never hike 75 basis points. Then when they hiked 75 basis points you said it was a one-off. Then when they did it again and again you said they were going to pivot. You’re dreaming, butters. What kind of asz-pounding are you taking from these rate hikes?

       1. It’s the Donkey Dance

          Evanston, IL Housing Prices Crater 22% YOY On Soaring Mortgage Defaults

          https://www.movoto.com/evanston-il/market-trends/

22. ‘My assumption is that, since women control 80% of retail spending and only 1 in 7 bitcoin wallets are currently held by women, the dam is about to break,’ Draper said.”

    This might very well be the stupidest thing I’ve read all year, and that’s in a #ClownWorld context.

    1. Yikes, Draper is worse than Saylor. If women wanted to get into bitcoin, they would have already. Women like real assets, like, shoes.

23. Prediction: the MSM will redouble its efforts to keep Michelle Obama in the public eye with endless fawning powder-puff pieces meant to convince the sheeple that she (?) remains a popular and influential public figure who we really, really want as our next president. Looks like the fix is in for the 2024 elections.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/dec/29/michelle-obama-couldnt-stand-husband-barack-10-years

24. It’s been over two years now, but a necessary reminder that the 2020 election was, in fact, stolen.

    The 2020 election was stolen.

25. “The walls in Dr. Anthony S. Fauci’s home office are adorned with portraits of him, drawn and painted by some of his many fans. The most striking one is by the singer Joan Baez. The two of them, he said, “have become pretty good friends over the years.”

    Dr. Fauci seemed a little uncomfortable with people knowing about the pictures. He said that previously, when they were captured on camera, the “far right” attacked him as an “egomaniac.””

    You don’t say.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/29/us/politics/anthony-fauci-retirement.html

26. Re-post from the last thread.

    Warning From Ed Dowd: 7,500 Americans Are Killed or Disabled EACH DAY as Jabs Take Heavy Toll (12/29/2022):

    “Ed Dowd, author of Cause Unknown (available at BrighteonBooks.com and other book resellers) joined me for an interview last night to share updated — and slightly horrifying — numbers about post-vaccine excess fatalities and excess disability claims.

    The short version of that conversation is that each day in America, there are about 2,500 excess deaths and 5,000 excess disability victims due to covid-19 vaccines. This means, on average, about 7,500 Americans are removed from the potential labor pool each day. Granted, not all 7,500 are currently working, but most of them theoretically could contribute to the work force if they chose to.

    Ed Dowd calls this the “glacial Mad Max” scenario: It’s going to get very bad but not all at once. The slow, steady erosion of the pillars of civilization will become increasingly apparent over time as another 2.7 million people are killed or disabled by the vaccines each year. And that’s based on current rates of mortality and disability… rates that may become significantly worse among those who continue to take the mRNA jabs that obliterate their immune systems and caused their bodies to generate mysterious fibrous clots (which are not simply blood clots, by the way).

    Those who know how to do anything — the working class of America — are being systematically annihilated by the jabs, leaving behind the non-working welfare class who possess no practical skills and believe they are deserving of never-ending universal basic income subsidies so they can continue to be consumers. Their world is about to come to a frustrating end, and America as a whole is going to witness the ravages of the reversal of the globalization miracle that made goods affordable, readily available and easily replaced.

    In the USA, the productive labor force is being decimated by the jab. The culture wars have also sapped any last shred of work ethic out of the youth, rendering a generation of virtue signaling snowflakes who are incapable of using their hands to do anything other than play video games and masturbate (possibly at the same time for the truly inspired).

    The loss of the ability to defend your own borders is part of the decivilization now accelerating in the United States. And the vaccine fatalities and disabilities only accelerate this alarming phenomenon. Combined with the anti-fertility effects of the mRNA jab, it now looks like the USA will be utterly unable to achieve a sustainable reproduction rate to maintain its labor force. The Americans people are being deliberately killed off and replaced by illegal migrants, and those migrants are both willing to work and capable of reproduction — two critical properties that are being stripped away from Americans via the weaponization of the vaccine.

    The end result of all this is not in doubt: The economic, military and demographic collapse of the United States of America — a top goal of one world government globalist types who have long regarded the USA (and its Constitution) as a thorn in the side of global domination.

    Thus, the positioning of the vaccine as a depopulation weapon is just one part of an engineered collapse event designed to take down America and terrorize the world with another set of carefully planned (and previously simulated) crisis events.

    Those who fail to understand the macroeconomic and geopolitical implications of the vaccine depopulation scheme are missing the bigger picture. It isn’t merely about killing people off, it’s about killing certain people so they can be replaced by a foreign workforce that’s still willing to run the munitions factories and sweep the floors. The robot takeover, after all, hasn’t arrived yet. Until it does, the globalists are happy to make do with a migrant takeover, just as long as they can keep the weapons factories operating as long as possible.

    The vaccines targeted the most competent, first world professionals on purpose. As those people are swept out of the way, they will be replaced by obedient, low-education illegals who will be granted amnesty, then work permits, and then voting rights to help keep the uniparty in power as they engineer the total collapse of western civilization — a process now accelerating by the day across Western Europe, by the way. Note carefully that both Democrats and RINO Republicans are all in favor of amnesty. This should be no surprise once you understand the reality of the replacement effort now under way.

    In summary, we are not merely watching genocide; we are witnessing the permanent rejiggering of the economic order by malicious, anti-human Luciferians who celebrate death and destruction. Every person who takes another booster shot is inadvertently working on their behalf, by the way, helping to achieve their malicious aims.

    https://discernreport.com/warning-from-ed-dowd-7500-americans-are-killed-or-disabled-each-day-as-jabs-take-heavy-toll/

    Replacement Theory is not a theory.

27. I’ll play. Three from the playbook of the left.

    1-An American or European embassy is bombed and Russia is blamed.
    2-Michelle Obama announces her intent to run for President.
    3-Oil hits $200.

    1. Not seeing 2.

       1. I think Newsom will be their choice. Big Mike could be his VP.

          1. In the end, it doesn’t really matter who they nominate. They will stuff ballot boxes and the WEF will call the shots.

             1. Yep.

       2. Let’s hope you’re right. If I am, then millions of people who voluntarily took an experimental drug for sniffles will queue up to kiss her ring as the next king. 😁

          1. <chuckles>

28. Either there will be a recession in 2023, or the nearly infallible yield curve inversion recession indicator will fail.

    1. INSIDER
       Michael Burry, Elon Musk, and Mark Zuckerberg have sounded the alarm on the US economy. Here are 8 recession warnings from top commentators.
       Theron Mohamed
       Sat, December 31, 2022 at 4:32 AM PST·3 min read
       In this article:
       Michael Burry and Elon Musk. Getty

       – Michael Burry and Elon Musk have flagged the risk of a severe US recession.

       – Mark Zuckerberg, Andy Jassy, and Larry Fink have also bemoaned the grim economic backdrop.

       – Experts have cited inflation, rising interest rates, and global growth headwinds as major concerns.

       Michael Burry, Elon Musk, and Mark Zuckerberg have sounded the alarm on the US economy, as a toxic mixture of high inflation, surging interest rates and slumping global growth threaten to cause a recession.
       …
       https://news.yahoo.com/michael-burry-elon-musk-mark-113000797.html

    2. In inversion of US treasury yields, a recession is foretold
       A recession typically involves the overall output in an economy contracting for at least two consecutive quarters, along with job losses and reduction in overall demand.
       Written by Udit Misra
       New Delhi | Updated: December 27, 2022 07:28 IST
       Newsguard
       The US Treasury building in Washington. (Bloomberg/File)

       As the new year approaches, there are fears of recession in many of the world’s top economies, including the United States, the biggest and most consequential of all. The US does look headed for a recession — a key pointer is the inversion of US treasury yields.

       What is a recession, to begin with?

       A recession typically involves the overall output in an economy contracting for at least two consecutive quarters, along with job losses and reduction in overall demand. The US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) decides whether the economy is in a recession based on its assessment of the depth, diffusion, and duration of the impact on the economy.
       …
       https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/in-inversion-of-us-treasury-yields-a-recession-is-foretold-8343881/

    3. If the true inflation rate were used, I would dare say that the economy has been shrinking since last year, which would place us in a depression.

       1. I don’t think the price of eggs is included in GDP.

          1. Just saying that the CPI and PPI are used to adjust nominal GDP to real GDP. If they are bogus then the adjusted GDP is also bogus.

             1. If shadowstats is to be believed, real inflation is 3-4 points higher than what is reported.

                Consider the car market. Far fewer cars are being sold than before the pandemic, but prices are up, up and away. Is the automotive share of gdp up, or is it inflation?

          2. AT the rate we’re going eggs will soon be unavailable so their price will be free. Thus, no inflation.

             Also, welcome to Venezuela.

             1. Inflation + underpricing =empty shelves.

                Same thing happened to housing inventory in the presence of rampant housing price inflation. If the seller decides to offer the item for below market value, the shelves quickly empty.

             2. Try explaining to people that inflation + prices controls = empty shelves.

          3. I bought the 18 pack at Costco a couple of weeks ago. Now our local grocery stores have run out of eggs, due to pricing them too low.

    4. ‘The Fed has to do the dirty work’ and induce a US recession that’s deeper than Europe’s as the economy is clearly overheating, BofA says
       Phil Rosen
       Dec 31, 2022, 9:13 AM

       – The Federal Reserve has to do the “dirty work” of bringing labor demand down to match supply, Bank of America analysts said.

       – As a result, the US will face a deeper recession than Europe, where the labor market is already much weaker.
        
       – BofA sees the Fed hiking the benchmark rate to 5.25%, while the European Central Bank’s terminal rate will be 2.5%.
       …
       https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-rate-hikes-us-economy-recession-inflation-europe-jobs-market-2022-11

29. They’re not sending their best.

    https://www.foxnews.com/us/peruvian-citizen-founder-violent-gang-deported-us-entering-illegally-through-california

30. Even progressive news programs like Democracy Now are calling out the “abject failure” of Buffalo, NY’s Democrat-Bolshevik “leadership’s” response to the recent winter storm. Of course the same idiots who vote D fail to take even the most elementary precautions when faced with potentially life-threatening emergency weather situations.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=224ZX-69sLs

    1. “abject failure” of Buffalo,

       It’s my home town and I think that comment is pretty funny. No city in the world could handle what hit Buffalo as if it was a minor inconvenience.

31. The Kinks — Powerman:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slr4cymXaLQ

    1. The Kinks — Got To Be Free:

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7qChiEGugE

       1. Rolling Stones — Miss Amanda Jones:

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpHKLDLEmZ0

          1. Rolling Stones — Under My Thumb (live at Altamont 1969):

             https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRQaqmP7QGY

             1. Jimi Hendrix — Like A Rolling Stone (live at Monterey 1967):

                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBVGa5D6GDY

32. Bitcoin will bottom out…or not. And it will go to $0…or not

    1. BITCOIN | On December 30, 2022
       Bitcoin (BTC) To Bottom Out After Another Massive Drop, Predicts Coin Bureau – Here’s the Timeline
       By Daily Hodl Staff
       Bitcoin (BTC) To Bottom Out After Another Massive Drop, Predicts Coin Bureau – Here’s the Timeline

       A popular crypto analyst says the crypto market could see one more massive decline before bottoming in early 2023.

       In a new YouTube strategy session, pseudonymous Coin Bureau host Guy tells his 2.19 million subscribers that Bitcoin (BTC) could decline by as much as 60% in the near term.
       …
       https://dailyhodl.com/2022/12/30/bitcoin-btc-to-bottom-out-after-another-massive-drop-predicts-coin-bureau-heres-the-timeline/

       1. What does “bottom out” even mean? Lots of people thought Bitcoin had bottomed out at $20,000 a few months ago. Then SBF had some problems at FTX, and suddenly Bitcoin lurched lower to $16,500, where it has remained entrenched for no reason, as there is no fundamental determinant of fair market value for cryptos. Is someone going to ring a bell after the final leg down for Bitcoin?

          1. If you pull a long term chart of it it makes a nice flat line around the current level which rarely ever happens especially for this duration. I’m sure it’s totally natural and just a tradeable bottom or something.

             1. Some whale is propping up Bitcoin. When they run out of powder, look out below. 👇

    2. Has Solana bottomed out yet?

       1. Tech
          Solana’s slide accelerates — $50 billion in value wiped from the cryptocurrency in 2022
          Published Fri, Dec 30 2022 11:40 AM EST
          Updated Fri, Dec 30 2022 7:50 PM EST
          Rohan Goswami

          Key Points
          – Solana has lost over $50 billion in value since the beginning of 2022, a year marked by outages, overloads, and significant exposure to Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX exchange.
          – Proponents argue that Solana is more critical than ever as a decentralized finance platform, but recent price action suggests that investors continue to be skeptical even after the broader crypto markets have stabilized.
          – Solana was designed as an efficient and speed-first platform, using an innovative consensus mechanism to differentiate itself from ethereum, but has faced developer attrition throughout the year.
          …
          https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/30/solanas-accelerating-yearlong-slide-wipes-out-over-50-billion.html

          1. “…designed as an efficient and speed-first platform, using an innovative consensus mechanism to differentiate itself from ethereum…”

             That techno bullshit has no implications whatsoever for the market value of a token, which is determined by willingness to pay for a stake in a Ponzi scheme.

33. Pension funds will struggle with liquidity risks, as they find themselves holding devalued assets which they must sell to raise cash to pay benefits.

    1. The Financial Times
       Pensions industry
       Pension funds must take ‘extreme care’ with liquidity risks, OECD warns
       Rising interest rates and falling stock markets have changed the picture for retirement schemes
       Commuters cross London Bridge in the City of London
       Allocations to alternative assets have brought benefits to global public pension plans
       Josephine Cumbo 9 hours ago

       Pension funds should be “extremely careful” when investing in illiquid assets, as rising interest rates and falling stock markets increase the likelihood of their having to access cash quickly, the OECD has warned.

       In the recent era of low interest rates, pension funds poured money into alternative investments, such as infrastructure projects and private equity, in an effort to escape the low yields available on government bonds.

       But such investments are typically illiquid, meaning the funds cannot quickly convert them into cash if needed. While there has been little need for funds to do that over the past decade, the UK pension crisis in October exposed how a sharp rise in interest rates can change that.

       “There is a call now for greater flexibility in regulation to allow [defined contribution] schemes to invest in illiquids and infrastructure and this is fine,” said Pablo Antolin, principal economist at the private pension unit of the OECD Financial Affairs Division. “But we also have to be extremely careful because liquidity issues are very important in the management of investment strategies.”

       Alongside the liquidity risks, the OECD cautioned that the level of due diligence required on alternative investments is likely to be beyond the reach of many smaller funds.

       “When you have a big pension fund, with a large investment team, which is more highly qualified, they can afford to make those choices and assess those illiquids quite well to introduce them,” said Antolin. “But small and medium-sized pension funds can’t and they need the financial instruments to invest . . . What we have seen is there are not many financial instruments out there to invest in illiquids and infrastructure.”
       …

    2. Yahoo
       Get App
       Reuters
       Market misery deals sovereign wealth funds historic setback in 2022 -study
       Marc Jones
       Sat, December 31, 2022 at 11:03 PM PST·3 min read
       Passersby walk past an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo
       By Marc Jones

       LONDON (Reuters) – Heavy falls in stock and bond markets over the last year have cut the combined value of the world’s sovereign wealth and public pension funds for the first time ever – and to the tune of $2.2 trillion, an annual study of the sector has estimated.

       The report on state-owned investment vehicles by industry specialist Global SWF found that the value of assets managed by sovereign wealth funds fell to $10.6 trillion from $11.5 trillion, while those of public pension funds dropped to $20.8 trillion from $22.1 trillion.

       Global SWF’s Diego López said the main driver had been the “simultaneous and significant” 10%-plus corrections suffered by major bond and stock markets, a combination that had not happened in 50 years.
       …
       https://finance.yahoo.com/news/market-misery-deals-sovereign-wealth-070340437.html

34. Darren Beattie: Elon Musk Has Done More for Free Speech Than Any Elected Republican

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/9AMEXfW4wOs/

    2:22.

    1. Darren Beattie: Elon Musk Has Done More for Free Speech Than Any Elected Republican

       I second that. The RINOs like McConnell are complicit deep state thugs. That being said, I am conflicted about Musk.

       I have long said he’s a conman, and I still believe it to be so. I suppose even a charlatan can do some good, so I’m trying to appreciate some of his stuff. However, he’s deep into this climate change scam that’s forcing EVs and everything else on us.

       1. The markets are full of flimflams and various cons but it is important to give Elon some credit for actual real world accomplishments. For instance, landing a rocket for reuse is a pretty big advancement. He will most likely get the historical credit for that. Launching a car into space will also be one for the history books. I could go on but the point is he has delivered on numerous claims unlike so many. Over the last month a new advancement called Chat GPT (open AI) is sweeping the interwebs and he was an early investor with lofty ideals for it. Regardless of what anyone thinks of him or his lifestyle he will occupy the history books alongside the likes of Howard Hughes. His final chapter has yet to be written but I wouldn’t be surprised if he wound up holed up in a suite in some Las Vegas casino tearing the walls out as he slowly goes mad just like Howard. We’ll see.

          1. I could have appreciated the real accomplishments a lot more without the crazy side show.

          2. he will occupy the history books alongside the likes of

             Charles Ponzi and Bernie Madoff. Tesla is a RICO.

    2. Unexpected but very welcome.

       1. He knows the political winds have changed.

35. Buzzcocks — Why Can’t I Touch It?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1G0jl0Vc64

    1. The Clash — Safe European Home:

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_6UTZb-_vI

       1. The Clash — Mustapha Dance:

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_iP_itgVeE

36. The New Year

    Lots of things look to be improving. The best of luck to all of you in the New Year.

37. Happy New Year…. May realtors, mortgage pimps aand appraisers across the US face long prison sentences in 2023.

38. I predict the cryptocurrency propaganda machine will keep spewing bullshit in high volume straight into the new year.

    1. ‘Wash trading’ is rampant on unregulated crypto exchanges: NBER study
       Ernest Hoffman
       Thursday December 29, 2022 13:46
       Kitco News

       (Kitco News) – Unregulated crypto exchanges, where the overwhelming majority of crypto trades are done, systematically engage in wash trading to boost profits and inflate volumes, according to a new study from researchers at the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research.

       In the ‘Crypto Wash Trading’ working paper, authors Lin William Cong, Xi Li, Ke Tang and Yang Yang analyzed cryptocurrency transaction information in the TokenInsight database from 29 major exchanges, including Binance, Coinbase, and Huobi, as well as lesser-known exchanges from Jul. 9 to Nov. 3, 2019 for evidence of wash trading.

       The authors define wash trading as “investors simultaneously selling and buying the same financial assets to create artificial activity in the marketplace,” which distorts price, volume, and volatility, and impacts investors’ confidence and participation in financial markets.
       …
       https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-12-29/-Wash-trading-is-rampant-on-unregulated-crypto-exchanges-NBER-study.html

       1. “investors simultaneously selling and buying the same financial assets to create artificial activity in the marketplace,”

          That’s not fraudulent because…[CRICKETS]

    2. Sam Bankman-Fried is Very Sorry – South Park Parody
       75K views · 2 days ago
       …
       https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UXFkCHzI1kg

    3. Sam Bankman-Fried Interviewed Live About the Collapse of FTX
       …
       https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IyoGdwVIwWw

    4. The Daily Hodl
       Pro-XRP Lawyer Says SEC Chair Gary Gensler Will Drive Crypto Prices Lower With Future Lawsuit Against an Exchange
       Daily Hodl Staff
       December 29, 2022

       Attorney and XRP supporter John Deaton thinks Gary Gensler, the chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), will pursue more regulatory action that will drive crypto prices lower.

       Deaton says he expects Gensler to sue a crypto exchange and argues that most of the exchange’s tokens are unregistered securities.

       Consequently, he believes crypto prices could plummet even further, allowing traditional financial institutions like Goldman Sachs or JPMorgan Chase to buy up shares in the sector.

       “I’ve been saying for a year that this was the plan. Once the market is at the bottom and the incumbents get a bigger piece, Gary and the SEC will come to the table and work out some form of guidelines or clarity…

       Even if [Ripple CEO] Brad Garlinghouse is correct and 99% of crypto goes to zero, it would still leave 100-200 projects — so you get the picture. Utility will win the day. I have no idea where the bottom is but what is clear to me is the agenda being pursued by regulators like Goldman Gary.
       …
       https://dailyhodl.com/2022/12/29/xrp-lawyer-says-sec-chair-gary-gensler-will-drive-crypto-prices-lower-with-future-lawsuit-against-an-exchange/

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